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Opioid Crisis: A Looming Threat To India?

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A serious, but a typical health crisis that has shaken America, is now, apparently, in search of its prey in India – a soft target to ignite a raging fire of misuse or abuse of prescription drugs of addictive in nature. That India could probably be the next victim of this menace, is now being widely discussed and reported in the international media, though not so much in India, itself.

The January 2019 communique of the National Institute of Drug Abuse spotlights: ‘Every day more than 130 people in the United States die after overdosing on opioids.’ Whereas, in 2017, more than 47,000 Americans, among 1.7 million suffering people, died as a result of an Opioid overdose. Snowballing effect of Opioids addiction commenced over a couple of decades ago and includes – both prescription pain relievers and synthetic Opioids, such as fentanyl, among others.

The health menace of this humongous dimension is not only jeopardizing public health, but also impacting the social and economic welfare, work productivity, besides drug addiction related criminal behavior of an increasing number of addicts.

In this article, exploring the factors – that not just ignited, but fueled this fire, I shall try to explain why India could be a fertile ground for another opioid epidemic. The key intent is to thwart this menace without further delay, learning from the ‘Opioid crisis’ in the United States. Moving towards that direction, I begin with a brief description of the genesis of this crisis, primarily to ensure that all my readers are on the same page to feel the gravity of the situation.

The genesis of Opioid crisis:

The terms – ‘Opioid epidemic’ or ‘Opioid crisis’are generally referred to rapid increase in consumption of prescription and nonprescription Opioid drugs in America that began in the late 1990s. It is noteworthy, until the mid-1980s and early 1990s, physicians seldom prescribed opiates because of the fear of addicting patients. This was established in several studies, such as, the July-August 2016 Article, titled ‘Drug Company Compensated Physicians Role in Causing America’s Deadly Opioid Epidemic: When Will We Learn?’

In the ninety’s, as the above paper indicates, some “medical experts and thought leaders led by the neurologist and pain specialist Russell Portenoy, MD, proclaimed that the risks of addiction to Opioids were minimal and that not treating pain was cruel and even amounted to medical negligence.” Incidentally, Russell Portenoy was at that time known as the “King of Pain” and was the Chairman of Pain Medicine and Palliative Care at Beth Israel Hospital in New York.

The paper also articulated, “Portenoy and his acolytes wrote articles and gave lectures to physicians about the safety of narcotics. They repeatedly cited a study by Porter and Jick in ‘The New England Journal of Medicine’ that stated that only one percent of patients treated with narcotics became addicted.” It is a different matter, as the authors indicated, the above trial was ‘not a controlled study at all. It consisted of a short 101-word one paragraph letter to the editor.’

Understandably, the rapid spread of Opioid use in America commenced on the following years. As The author highlighted: “To this day in most American hospitals, nurses on their daily rounds, ask patients to rate their pain on a scale of one to ten and then may administer a narcotic accordingly.”

HHS corroborates the fact:

In line with the finding of the above paper, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) traces the origin of the U.S. Opioid Epidemic in the late 1990s. When, asHHS also reiterated, ‘pharmaceutical companies reassured the medical community that patients would not become addicted to opioid pain relievers.’ Presumably, the general image of the pharma industry not being as questionable as today, ‘health care providers began to prescribe them at greater rates,’ – HHS further noted.

Thereafter, all hell broke loose, as it were.With increased prescriptions of Opioid medications, the widespread misuse of both prescription and non-prescription Opioids started taking its toll. Obviously, it happened as the prescribers were not as cautious and restrictive and concerned about prescribing Opioids because of their addictive nature, as they were before 1990s. It seems unlikely that astute medical practitioners won’t be able to fathom the devastating health impact of such highly addictive medications on the users.

America had to declare the Opioid crisis as public health emergency: 

In 2017 HHS declared Opioid crisis as a public health emergency, announcing a strategy to combat this epidemic. Separately, in October 2017, President Trump also declared the same as the ‘worst drug crisis in U.S. history’.One can sense this Presidential level urgency from the recent report of The Washington Post. It emphasized - ‘America’s largest drug companies saturated the country with 76 billion oxycodone and hydrocodone pain pills from 2006 through 2012, as the nation’s deadliest drug epidemic spun out of control.’

The above information comes from a database maintained by the Drug Enforcement Administration that tracks the path of every single pain pill sold in the United States – from manufacturers and distributors to pharmacies in every town and city. The data would provide an unprecedented look at the surge of legal pain pills that fueled the Opioid epidemic, resulting in nearly 100,000 deaths from 2006 through 2012, as the article highlighted.

In view of this, and also looking at the chronology of the genesis of this crisis, it is worth exploring the role of pharma companies in triggering this health hazard in America.

The role of pharma companies in the crisis: 

That there is, apparently, a role of some big pharma players in the Opioid crisis was widely reported by the international media. One such article titled, ‘Big Pharma Is Starting to Pay for the Opioid Crisis. Make Those Payments Count,’ was publishesby The New York Times, on August 28, 2019.

It said: ‘As innumerable court documents and investigations have shown, Opioid makers, including Purdue and Johnson & Johnson, routinely and knowingly misled the public about their products. They played down the risks of addiction, insisting that their drugs were safe and, if anything, underutilized. And they combated growing concerns with aggressive lobbying and public relations campaigns.’

The September 01, 2019 article titled – ‘America’s Opioid catastrophe has lessons for us all, about greed and racial division’, published in The Guardian went a step forward. Explaining the reason for the situation to attain a ‘crisis’ stage, it said, ‘big pharma saw huge profits in medicalizing the social stress of the white working class.’ Thus, the question that comes up, is there any strong and credible evidence to associate Opioid crisis with pharma marketing?

Association of Opioid crisis with pharma marketing:

Several reports point towards a possible pharma-doctor nexus for the Opioid crisis. One such evidence is provided by the same  July-August 2016 Article, as quoted above. The paper said:‘Recently and belatedly, Portenoy has backtracked and admitted he was wrong about the addictive properties of Opioids.’ He was quoted in the article saying: “I gave innumerable lectures in the late 1980s and ‘90s about addiction that weren’t true.”

Another original investigation report in this regard, titled ‘‘Association of Pharmaceutical Industry Marketing of Opioid Products With Mortality From Opioid-Related Overdoses’, was published in JAMAon January 18, 2019. The paper concluded:‘In this study, across US counties, marketing of Opioid products to physicians was associated with increased Opioid prescribing and, subsequently, with elevated mortality from overdoses. Amid a national Opioid overdose crisis, reexamining the influence of the pharmaceutical industry may be warranted.’

The article also indicated: ‘Recent data suggest that when physicians receive Opioid marketing, they subsequently prescribe more Opioids.’ The researchers pointed out:‘Amid a worsening Opioid crisis, our results suggest that industry marketing to physicians may run counter to current efforts to curb excessive Opioid prescribing.’

Again, the same September 01, 2019 article, published in The Guardian, also stresses– ‘The relationship between big pharma and US doctors can only be described as corrupt.’ Quoting the official figures, it highlighted: ‘The total paid to doctors and hospitals by drug companies was more than $9bn. Unsurprisingly, the greater the payments, the more willing doctors were to prescribe Opioids.’

The India’s tryst with Opioid drugs:

As many would know, India has remained for a long time one of the largest Opioid medicine producers in the world. However, most of the country’s population had a restricted access to Opioid pain relief drugs.

This was because, the International Narcotics Control Board, established in 1968, and the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act of 1985 ‘codified the bureaucratic thicket for any doctor who wanted to prescribe opioid painkillers. Physicians feared fines, jail sentences and losing their medical license if they skirted regulations.’

The amendment came in 2014:

According to reports, the need for pain relief being “an important obligation of the government,” the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, was amended in 2014, creating a class of medicines called the “essential narcotic drugs.” The list of which includes, morphine, fentanyl, methadone, oxycodone, codeine and hydrocodone. Alongside, the conditions for bail in drug offenses will be relaxed and the mandatory death penalty for those previously convicted of certain offenses will be revoked.This is expected to create a better balance between narcotic drug control and the availability of Opioid drugs, for beneficial use of patients.

The flip side – a looming threat?

So far so good. Nevertheless, another article – ‘How big pharma is targeting India’s booming Opioid market,’ appeared in The Guardian on August 27, 2019, shows the flip side of this development. It says, as India loosens its stringent narcotics laws, ‘American pharmaceutical companies – architects of the Opioid crisis in the United States and avid hunters of new markets – stand at the ready to fuel that demand.’

Many are truly concerned about it, especially in a country like India, where any medicine can be procured over the counter, hoodwinking robust drug laws. Thus, as the above article adds, ‘a looming deluge of addictive painkillers terrifies some Indian medical professionals, who are keenly aware that despite government regulations most drugs are available for petty cash at local chemist shops.’

Providers of pain management are increasing, so also self-medication:

Today, ‘pain management’ as a specialty treatment, can be seen in many hospitals of the country. In tandem – apparently, ‘at the insistence of the professional societies that accredit hospitals in India, nurses and doctors are now encouraged to assess pain as a “fifth vital sign“, along with pulse, temperature, breathing and blood pressure.’ Besides, as The Guardian article of August 27, 2019 also noted, ‘General practitioners have started prescribing these drugs.’

Yet another important point to note, according to studies, one of the most common reasons for self-medication is for pain – 18.34 percent, where self-medication is done with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in 49.4 percent of cases. Keeping pace with this trend, most generic pharma companies are having pain management product in their brand portfolio, unlike a couple of decades ago.

Early signs of drug companies’ special marketing activities:

There are many examples. But I shall quote The Guardian article again to drive home this point. The paper talks about hints of ‘American pharma’s fingerprints’ in a glass cabinet in the waiting room of a famous clinic in Delhi. Some of these include ‘awards from Johnson & Johnson honoring the doctor for symposia on pain management; a plaque for “his valuable contribution as a speaker” about tapentadol, an Opioid marketed by Johnson & Johnson in 2009. The dispensing counter does a brisk business in Ultracet, branded tramadol tablets made by a Johnson & Johnson subsidiary.’

Alongside, another interesting point is peeps in – the drugs, which are now commonly prescribed for chronic pain were first approved for use by cancer patients. ‘One of the first formulations of fentanyl, for example, was a lollipop because chemotherapy left cancer patients too nauseated to eat. In India, pain physicians now prescribe fentanyl patches to patients with chronic muscular pain.’

Every year, more of such drugs are coming to market. Many chemists, hospitals and medical shops are also acquiring requisite licenses for keeping these drugs. Curiously, Opioids are available in not just oral, but injectable, patches and syrups – the article noted.

Conclusion:

There are many striking similarities between the developments that preceded the American Opioid crisis and the emerging scenario of the same in India. One such is, its onset in America was in the late 1990s, with the regulatory relaxation in introducing Opioid drugs. However, the first announcement of the full-blown crisis on the same, took a couple of decades to come.

In India, the regulatory relaxation for some Opioid drugs came in 2014, and now its 2019. Thus, it’s possibly too early to even track, in which direction it is moving. However, given the prevailing overall healthcare scenario in India, the concern remains palpable. The decision makers, hopefully, would consider putting in place effective checks and balances, taking a leaf from the American Opioid epidemic. The measures should include, among others, effective implementation of legal and regulatory provisions; making health care delivery systems robust and transparent; protecting vulnerable patients from rampant and irresponsible self-medication, besides promptly addressing general concerns with pharma marketing practices.

The whole process should be aimed at benefitting the deserving patients, suffering from excruciating pain, while minimizing Opioid drug misuse or abuse. There should not be any repetition of human sufferings on this score, like what people are now witnessing in America. Effective action from all concerned – right from now, will decide whether or not Opioid crisis is a looming threat that India can successfully neutralize.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

India: Tops The GDP Growth, Remains At The Bottom On Health Care

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On February 9, 2015, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, “India’s statistics ministry surprised economists when it unveiled the new numbers for the growth of India’s gross domestic product. It ratcheted up India’s GDP growth figures using a new methodology that pegs expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy at 7.5 percent last quarter and 8.2 percent the quarter before that. Economists and the ministry, using the old methodology, had originally said growth was closer to 5.5 percent during those quarters. This recalculation indicates that India has already dethroned China as the world’s fastest-growing big economy, though China’s economy is still four times the size of India’s.”

For Indians in particular, this has indeed been a significant ‘feel good factor’.

However, keeping this ascending GDP growth rate in perspective, when we study the current health care related data of India as compared to BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) or even OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, India features at the rock bottom.

In this article, I shall quickly compare some critical health care parameters of India, against the same for other BRICS countries.

At the rock-bottom on healthcare:

This becomes absolutely clear when we look at the recent data on ‘Health Status’ of BRICS Nations, as follows:

Health Status of BRICS Nations (2013*)

Life Expectancy at Birth  Infant Mortality per 1,000 Live Births Child Mortality under 5 per 1,000 Live Births  Maternal mortality ratio (per 100 000 live births) 
Russia Federation 71 9 10 24
Brazil 74 12 14 69
South Africa 59 33 44 140
China 75 11 13 32
India 66 41 53 190

* Life expectancy at birth data is of 2012; maternal mortality ratio is of 2010; all the others are of 2013. Source: Health and Health Care in BRICS Nations by Victor G. Rodwin, Wagner School of Public Service, New York University, 

The legacy factor:

This has not happened overnight, public health care has been getting neglected in India over a long period of time. However, the process of slowing down in this area has become more pronounced in the recent years, as we shall discuss below.

The following table based on relatively recent data on ‘Health Expenditure’ in BRICS Nations, well captures the abject lack of focus in this area, which is so vital for sustainable economic progress of India:

Health Expenditure in BRICS Nations (2012*)

GDP Per capita (PPP)  Public Expenses on Health        (% GDP)  Private Expenses on Health  (%GDP)  Total Expenses on Health (%GDP)  Out-of pocket Health Expenses (% of Total Healthcare Expenditure) 1
Russia Federation  24,805 3.8 2.4 6.3 33.52
Brazil 16,096 4.3 5.0 9.3 31.08
South Africa 13,046 4.2 4.6 8.8 7.21
China 12,880 3.0 2.4 5.4 34.67
India 5,855  1.3 2.7 4.0 58.05

* GDP per capita in PPP is of 2014; Human Development Index is of 2013; the rest of the data is of 2012. 1. Calculated based on private expenditure on health (% of GDP), total expenditure on health (% of GDP), out-of-pocket health expenditure (% of private health care expenditure). Source: Health and Health Care in BRICS Nations by Victor G. Rodwin, Wagner School of Public Service, New York University.

Lowest Human Development Index:

Human Development Index (HDI) is broadly defined as a composite statistic of life expectancy, education, and per capita income indicators, which is used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. Net outcomes of both education and health care play critical roles in the statistical calculations of HDI.

Among the BRICS nations, India registers the lowest HDI at 0.586, as compared to 0.658 of South Africa, 0.719 of China, 0.744 of Brazil and 0.778 of Russia.

Source: Health and Health Care in BRICS Nations by Victor G. Rodwin, Wagner School of Public Service, New York University.

High economic costs of neglect to health care:

An April 30, 2015 article of Reuters stated that over 60 percent of deaths in India are due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, which are responsible for about 70 percent of spending on healthcare. They also make serious adverse impact on the economic health of the country, with NCDs and mental illness expected to cost India US$ 4.58 trillion between 2012 and 2030.

This, by all means, creates a high priority situation, which needs to be addressed with commensurate well thought-out policy measures backed by adequate budgetary support.

The condition assumes even greater significance, as healthy and well-productive workforces contribute immensely to high and sustainable economic growth aspiration of a nation, always.

Healthcare budget gets further axed:

To meet the expectations of many, when the incumbent government is trying to floor the gas pedal for accelerated economic growth of the country, requisite budgetary allocation for quality and affordable healthcare in India, continues to lag behind.

On the contrary, in December 2014, just prior to the Union Budget Proposal 2015-16, the new Government reportedly ordered more than Rs 6,000 Crore or US$948 million cut (20 percent) from its own healthcare budget allocation of around US $5 billion for the financial year ending March 31, 2015, due to financial constraints.

In 2014-15, the finance ministry also ordered a spending cut of around 30 percent to US$ 205.4 million on India’s HIV/AIDS program.

Then came the Union Budget proposal 2015-16. Interestingly, even after several well publicized announcements by the Government on the ‘National Health Assurance Mission’, with generous promises on rejuvenation of public health care services sooner, the budget ignored all these – lock, stock, and barrel.

For 2015-16, the health care budget allocation was kept at Rs. 33,152 Crore, a tad more than Rs. 30,645 Crore of 2014-15. There has been no indication either for any comprehensive and integrated focus on healthcare, adequately backed by commensurate budgetary allocation, any time soon.

Could crimp efforts to control the spread of diseases:

Just around this time, a report from Reuters, quoting one of the health ministry officials, stated that this budget cut could crimp efforts to control the spread of diseases.

Interestingly, more newborns die in India than in poorer neighbors such as Bangladesh, and preventable illnesses such as diarrhea kill more than a million children every year.

This issue becomes even more glaring, when India contributing to 21 percent of the global disease burden, accounts for just a fraction of global spending on health.

What the Government promised, but did not deliver:

Before the Union Budget proposal of 2015-16, another article of Reuters dated October 30, 2014, quoting an Government announcement, reported that under the National Health Assurance Mission, Narendra Modi government would provide all citizens with free drugs and diagnostic treatment, in addition to insurance cover to treat serious ailments.

The proposed plan was to be rolled out in phases from April 2015 and was to cover the entire population by March 2019. The project would reportedly cost an estimated US$11.4 billion annually, when the entire population of the country comes under it.

National Health Assurance Mission was reportedly to focus, among others, on the following:

  • Improving preventive healthcare services by ensuring adequate availability of medical practitioners in rural areas.
  • Creating new infrastructure under existing welfare programs.
  • Providing tertiary care services through an insurance-based model with the government offering more than 50 drugs free to all the citizens.
  • Offering in the package, along with the drugs, about 12-15 diagnostic treatments.
  • Encouraging the State Governments to enter into outsourcing agreements for the provision of treatment.

All admirers of the new dispensation felt greatly obliged for this announcement. It was to some extent fulfillment of a long awaited expectation for a just and efficient healthcare system in India.

Adding strength to the Government’s promise, it was also reported that the World Bank along with UK’s health cost-effectiveness agency NICE are assisting India in this regard, providing technical assistance and advice on treatments the government should offer in its health care package.

However, at the end of the day nothing got translated into reality, at least not just yet.

Patients are compelled to turn to expensive private sector providers:

At around 1.3 percent of GDP, India’s public health expenditure is already among the lowest in the world, even as compared to 1.4 percent of Bangladesh, 1.6 percent of Sri Lanka and 2.9 percent of Thailand.

It is noteworthy that the public sector is the main source of health funding in nearly all OECD countries. However, in India, only 33 percent of health spending was funded by public sources in 2012, a much lower share than the average of 72 percent in OECD countries.

Moreover, health accounted for only 4.8 percent of total government spending in 2012, significantly lower than the 14.4 percent across OECD countries.

A January 2015 paper titled, “Improving Health Outcomes And Health Care In India”, published by the OECD reconfirms that with India’s low life expectancy largely reflecting deaths from preventable diseases, the most significant gains in health would come from population-wide preventive measures.

The paper highlights that except a small number of states, overall access to public health care services in India is rather poor even today, resulting in many people turning to more expensive private-sector providers, who mainly serve those who can pay.

A quick comparison between public and private health care expenditure:

For a quick comparison between public and private health care expenditure, I shall refer to a very recent Government survey report.

This survey titled, “Key Indicators of Social Consumption in India Health” was conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation of the Government of India from January to June 2014 period and was published in June 2015.

The following table prepared from the above NSSO survey, is an example that would highlight the extent of difference in the average medical expenditure per hospitalization between a public and a private sector hospital.

Average Medical Expenditure Per Hospitalization/Case in Public And Private Hospitals

Broad ailment category Public (Rs.) Private (Rs.)
Infections 3007  8134 
Cancers 24526  78050 
Cardio-vascular 11549  43262 
Respiratory 4811  18705 
Gastro-intestinal 5281 23933
Genito-urinary 9295 29608
Obstetric and neonatal 2651 21626
Psychiatric & neurological 7482 34561
Blood diseases (including anemia) 4752 17607
Endocrine, metabolic & nutrition 4625 19206

Need to garner resources to implement ‘National Health Assurance Mission’:

The High Level Expert Group (HLEG), constituted by the erstwhile Planning Commission in January 2011, under the chairmanship of Dr K. Srinath Reddy, produced a comprehensive report on ‘Universal Health Care (UHC) in India’ in November 2011.

On health financing, HLEG made 10 recommendations, where from I would quote just two as follows:

  • Government (Central government and states combined) should increase public expenditures on health from the current level of 1.3 percent of GDP to at least 2.5 percent in the first 5 years and to at least 3 percent of GDP by the next 5-year period.
  • Use general taxation as the principal source of health care financing – complemented by additional mandatory deductions for health care from salaried individuals and taxpayers, either as a proportion of taxable income or as a proportion of salary.

I reckon, to meet the budgetary needs for ‘National Health Assurance Mission’ both direct and indirect taxes require to be levied if possible, at least in the next budget, along with adequate incentives to the State Governments to do the same.

Conclusion:

Over a period of time, economic aspirations of India have grown by manifold and very rightly so. To achieve these aspirations, alongside, at least two critical social needs such as ‘Education’ and ‘Health Care’ must be focused on simultaneously. I underscore ‘simultaneously’. There does not seem to be any alternative either, if we want to ensure that Indian aspirations do not remain just a pipe dream, for long.

It does not give any pride to many when one witnesses India topping the league table of GDP Growth percentage, while continuing to remain at the rock bottom so far as the health care is concerned.

Education and health care are universally considered as the bulwark for sustainable progress and growth of any nation. Even all BRICS countries have realized and implemented that, being well ahead of India in those fronts, unquestionably.

Let’s believe and hope, India would not continue to neglect these two critical growth catalysts of any nation, for long, while trying to build a robust economy. Otherwise, pushing hard only for economic growth as a percentage of GDP, could well be akin to chasing a rainbow, if not creating an unsustainable bubble with disastrous consequences, in the long run.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

“Make in India…Sell Anywhere in The World”: An Indian Pharma Perspective

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In his Independent Day speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2014, Indian Prime Minister Modi gave a clarion call to all investors of the world, “Come, make in India”, “Come, manufacture in India”, “Sell in any country of the world, but manufacture here”.

The Prime Minister did not stop there. In his inimitable style, following it through on September 25, 2014 he gave an official status to ‘Make in India’ slogan and launched a global campaign.

“My definition of FDI for the people of India is First Develop India. This is also a responsibility for the people of India,” he further clarified.

An Indian perspective:

If I juxtapose this vision of the Prime Minister in the Indian pharmaceutical industry perspective, one finds that many small, medium and large size local domestic manufacturers are currently manufacturing drugs not just for the domestic market, but are also exporting in large quantities to various countries of the world, including, North America, South America and Europe.

The United States (US) is one of the most critical markets for majority of the Indian drug exporters. This transaction was taking place without any major regulatory hitches since quite some time. Unfortunately, over the last few years, mostly the Federal Drug Administration of the US (USFDA) and the United Kingdom (UK)’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) have started raising serious doubts on the quality of medicines manufactured in India, making a significant impact on the drug exports of the country.

Most of these quality issues are related to ‘Data Integrity’ in the dug manufacturing and its documentation processes.

The impact:

According to industry data, in 2013-14, Indian drug exports registered the slowest growth in nearly the last 15 years. In this fiscal year, pharma exports of the country with a turnover of US$ 14.84 billion grew at a meager 1.2 percent. Pharmexcil attributed its reason to USFDA related regulatory issues and increasing global competition.

US accounts for about 25 percent of India’s pharma exports and its Federal Drug Administration (USFDA) has been expressing, since quite a while, serious concerns on ‘Data Integrity’ at the agency’s  previously approved production facilities of a large number of Indian pharma players.

The issue is causing not just a serious concern to USFDA and some other overseas drug regulatory agencies, but also posing a huge threat to future growth potential of Indian drug exports.

It is worth noting that Indian government had set an objective, in its strategy document, to register a turnover of US$ 25 billion for pharma exports in 2014-15. In all probability, it would fall far short of this target at the end of this fiscal, predominantly for related reasons.

Why is so much of ‘fuss’ on ‘Data Integrity’?

Broadly speaking, ‘Data Integrity’ in pharmaceutical manufacturing ensures that finished products meet pre-established specifications, such as, for purity, potency, stability and sterility. If data integrity is breached in any manner or in absence of credible data, the product becomes of dubious quality in the eyes of drug regulators.

Manufacturing related ‘Data Integrity’ is usually breached, when data from a database is deliberately or otherwise modified or destroyed or even cooked.

Over the last several years, ‘Data Integrity’ related issues in India are attracting enormous attention of both the USFDA and the MHRA, UK. As a result, concerned pharma manufacturing facilities are receiving Import Alerts/Warning Letters from the respective overseas drug regulators, refusing entry of those medicines mostly in the United States and some in the UK.

Recent warning letters:

Just over a year – from May 2013 to July 2014, around a dozen ‘Warning Letters’ have been sent to the Indian drug manufacturers by the USFDA on ‘Data Integrity’ related issue, as follows:

Recent ‘Warning Letter’ issued to: Date of issue
1. Marck Biosciences Ltd. 08. 07. 2014
2. Apotex Pharmachem India Pvt Ltd. 17. 06. 2014
3. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 07. 05. 2014
4. Canton Laboratories Private Limited 27. 02. 2014
5. USV Limited 06. 02. 2014
6. Wockhardt Limited 25. 11. 2013
7. Agila Specialties Private Limited 09. 09. 2013
8. Posh Chemicals Private Limited 02. 08. 2013
9. Aarti Drugs Limited 30. 07. 2013
10. Wockhardt Limited 18. 07. 2013
11. Fresenius Kabi Oncology Ltd 01. 07. 2013
12. RPG Life Sciences Limited 28. 05. 2013

(Source: RAPS, 19 August 2014)

Another report states that USFDA has, so far, banned at least 36 manufacturing plants in India from selling products in the US.

Importance of US for Indian generic players:

Generic drugs currently contribute over 80 percent of prescriptions written in the US. Around 40 percent of prescriptions and Over The Counter (OTC) drugs that are sold there, come from India. Almost all of these are cheaper generic versions of patent expired drugs. Hence, India’s commercial stake in this area is indeed mind-boggling.

The ‘Data Integrity’ issue is not restricted to just US or UK:

A report quoting researchers led by Roger Bate, an American Enterprise Institute scholar and funded by the The Legatum Institute and the Humanities Research Council of Canada, concluded that many Indian pharma companies follow double manufacturing standards, as they are sending poor quality drugs to Africa compared to the same pills sold in other countries. This study was based on tests of 1,470 samples produced by 17 Indian drug manufacturers.

Besides India, the researchers took drug samples from pharmacies in Africa and middle-income countries, including China, Russia and Brazil.

According to this paper, the researchers found that 17.5 percent of samples of the tuberculosis therapy rifampicin sold in Africa tested substandard, which means the drug has less than 80 percent of the active ingredient than what it should otherwise. Against this number, in India, 7.8 percent of the medicine sampled was found substandard.

Moreover, Almost 9 percent of samples of the widely used antibiotic ciprofloxacin sold in Africa tested substandard, as compared to 3.3 percent in India.

Thorny issues around golden opportunities:

Much reported breach in manufacturing ‘Data Integrity’ detected at the manufacturing sites in India, are throwing fresh doubts on the efficacy and safety profile of generic/branded generic medicines, in general, produced in the country and more importantly, whether they are putting the patients’ health at risk.

A new analysis by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research pointed out some thorny issues related to ‘Data Integrity’ of drugs produced by the Indian pharmaceutical companies, which supply around 40 percent of the generic drugs sold in the United States, as stated above.

The researchers examined nearly 1,500 India-made drug samples, collected from 22 cities and found that “up to 10 percent of some medications contained insufficient levels of the key active ingredients or concentrations so low, in fact, that they would not be effective against the diseases they’re designed to treat.”

The report also highlighted that international regulators detected more than 1,600 errors in 15 drug applications submitted by Ranbaxy. The Bureau Officials commented that these pills were “potentially unsafe and illegal to sell.”

Frequent drug recalls by Indian pharma majors:

The above findings came in tandem with a series of drug recalls made recently by the Indian pharma companies in the US.

Some of the reported recent drug recalls in America, arising out of manufacturing related issues at the facilities of two well-known Indian pharma majors, which are going to merge soon, are as follows:

  • Sun Pharmaceuticals recalled nearly 400,000 bottles of the decongestant cetirizine (Zyrtec) and 251,882 of the antidepressant venlafaxine (Effexor) this May, because the pills failed to dissolve properly. The drugs were distributed by the drug maker’s US subsidiary Caraco Pharmaceutical Laboratories, but were manufactured in India.
  • In the same month – May, Ranbaxy recalled 30,000 packs of the allergy drugs loratadine and pseudo-ephedrine sulphate extended release tablets because of manufacturing defects in packaging.
  • In March, Sun Pharma recalled a batch of a generic diabetes drug bound for the US after an epilepsy drug was found in it. A patient discovered the error after noticing the wrong medication in the drug bottle.
  • Again in March, Ranbaxy recalled nearly 65,000 bottles of the statin drug atorvastatin calcium (Lipitor) after 20-milligram tablets were found in sealed bottles marked 10-milligrams. A pharmacist in the U.S. discovered the mix up.

Indian media reinforces the point:

Indian media (TNN) also reported that there is no quality control even for life-saving generic drugs and the government is apathetic on ensuring that the quality protocol of these drugs is properly observed.

This happens, as the report states, despite government’s efforts to push generic drugs, as they are more affordable. The report gave an example of a life-saving drug, Liposomal Amphotericin B, which is used to treat fungal infections in critically ill patients.

Are all these drugs safe enough for Indian Patients?

Though sounds awkward, it is a fact that India is a country where ‘export quality’ attracts a premium. Unintentionally though, with this attitude, we indirectly accept that Indian product quality for domestic consumption is not as good.

Unfortunately, in the recent years, increasing number of even ‘export quality’ drug manufacturing units in India are being seriously questioned, warned and banned by the overseas drug regulators, such as USFDA and MHRA, UK, just to ensure dug safety for the patients in their respective countries.

Taking all these into consideration, and noting increasing instances of blatant violations of cGMP standards and ‘Data Integrity’ requirements for ‘export quality’ drugs, one perhaps would shudder to think, what could possibly be the level of conformance to cGMP for the drugs manufactured solely for the consumption of local patients in India.

A cause of concern, as generic drugs are more cost effective to patients:

It has been widely recognized globally that the use of generic drugs significantly reduces out-of-pocket expenditure of the patients and also payers’ spending.

The findings of a study conducted by the Researchers from Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH), Harvard Medical School and CVS Health has just been published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on September 15, 2014. In this study the researchers investigated whether the use of generic versus brand name statins can play a role in medication adherence and whether or not this leads to improved health outcomes. The study concluded that patients taking generic statins were more likely to adhere to their medication and also had a significantly lower rate of cardiovascular events and death.

In this study, the mean co-payment for the generic statin was US$10, as against US$48 for brand-name statins. It is generally expected that the generic drugs would be of high quality, besides being affordable.

I deliberated on a related subject in one of my earlier blog posts of November 11, 2013 titled, “USFDA” Import Bans’: The Malady Calls For Strong Bitter Pills”.

Conclusion:

According to USFDA data, from 2013 onwards, about 20 drug manufacturing facilities across India attracted ‘Import Alerts’ as against seven from China, two each from Australian, Canadian and Japanese units and one each from South African and German facilities.

Unfortunately, despite intense local and global furore on this subject, Indian drug regulators at the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), very strangely, do not seem to be much concerned on the ‘Data Integrity’ issue, at least, not just yet.

In my view, ‘Data Integrity’ issues are mostly not related to any technical or other knowledge deficiency. From the “Warning Letters” of the USFDA to respective Indian companies, it appears that these breaches are predominantly caused by falsification or doctoring of critical data. Thus, it basically boils down to a mindset issue, which possibly pans across the Indian pharma industry, irrespective of size of operations of a company.

Indian Prime Minister’s passionate appeal aimed at all investors, including from India, to “Make in India” and “Sell Anywhere in The World”, extends to pharma industry too, both local and global. The drug makers also seem to be aware of it, but the ghost keeps haunting unabated, signaling that the core mindset has remained unchanged despite periodic lip service and public utterances for corrective measures by a number of head honchos.

Any attempt to trivialize this situation, I reckon, could meet with grave consequences, jeopardizing the thriving pharma exports business of India, and in that process would betray the Prime Ministers grand vision for the country that he epitomized with, “Make in India” and “Sell Anywhere in The World”.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Alarming Incidence of Cancer: Fragile Infrastructure: Escalating Drug Prices

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According to the ‘Fact-Sheet 2014′ of the World Health Organization (WHO), cancer cases would rise from 14 million in 2012 to 22 million within the next two decades. It is, therefore, no wonder that cancers figured among the leading causes of over 8.2 million deaths in 2012, worldwide.

A reflection of this scary scenario can also be visualized while analyzing the growth trend of various therapy segments of the global pharmaceutical market.

A recent report of ‘Evaluate Pharma (EP)’ has estimated that the worldwide sales of prescription drugs would reach US$ 1,017 bn by 2020 with a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.1 percent between 2013 and 2020. Interestingly, oncology is set to record the highest sales growth among the major therapy categories with a CAGR of 11.2 percent during this period, accounting for US$ 153.4 bn of the global pharmaceutical sales.

The key growth driver is expected to be an exciting new class of cancer products targeting the programmed death-1 (PD-1) pathway with a collective value of US$ 14 bn in 2020, says the report.

Another recent report from the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics also highlights that global oncology spending touched US$ 91 billion in 2013 growing at 5 percent annually.

Consequently, Oncology would emerge as the biggest therapeutic class, more than twice of the anti-diabetic category, which features next to it.

Key global players:

Roche would continue to remain by far the largest player in the oncology market in 2020 with a 5 percent year-on-year growth between 2013 and 2020 with estimated total sales of over US$ 34bn in 2020 against US$ 25bn in 2013.

In 2020, besides Roche, other key players in the oncology segment would, in all probability, be Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Novartis, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Merck & Co, the EP report says.

Escalating costs of cancer drugs:

As IMS Health indicates, the overall cost for cancer treatments per month in the United States has now reached to US$10,000 from US$ 5,000 just a year ago. Thus, cancer drugs are fast becoming too expensive even in the developed markets, leave aside India.

The following table would help fathom how exorbitant are the costs per therapy of the common cancer drugs, though these are from the United States:

Generic                               Diagnosis

 Cost/ Dose (US$)

Cost of     Therapy/    28 days  (US$)

Cost per  Therapy      (US$)
brentuximab Hodgkins lymphoma

14,000

18,667

224,000
Pertuzumab Breast cancer

4,000

5,333

68,000
pegylated interferon Hepatitis C

700

2,800

36,400
Carfilzomib Multiple myeloma

1,658

9,948

129,324
ziv-aflibercept CRC

2,300

4,600

59,800
Omacetaxine CML

560

3,920

50,960
Regorafenib CRC

450

9,446

122,800
Bosutinib CML

278

7,814

101,580
Vemurafenib Melanoma

172

4,840

62,915
Abiraterone Prostate

192

5,391

70,080
Crizotinib NSCLC

498

27,951

363,367
Enzalutamide Prostate

248

6,972

90,637
ado-trastuzumab emtansine Breast – metastatic

8,500

8,115

105,500
Ponatinib Leukemia

319

8,941

116,233
Pomalidomide Multiple myeloma

500

10,500

135,500

(Source: ION Solutions)

Even US researchers concerned about high cancer drugs cost:

It is interesting to note, that in a review article published recently in ‘The Lancet Oncology’, the US researchers Prof. Thomas Smith and Dr. Ronan Kelly identified drug pricing as one area of high costs of cancer care. They are confident that this high cost can be reduced, just as it is possible for end-of-life care and medical imaging – the other two areas of high costs in cancer treatment.

Besides many other areas, the authors suggested that reducing the prices of new cancer drugs would immensely help containing cancer costs. Prof. Smith reportedly said, “There are drugs that cost tens of thousands of dollars with an unbalanced relationship between cost and benefit. We need to determine appropriate prices for drugs and inform patients about their costs of care.”

Cancer drug price becoming a key issue all over:

As the targeted therapies have significantly increased their share of global oncology sales, from 11 percent a decade ago to 46 percent last year, increasingly, both the Governments and the payers, almost all over the world, have started feeling quite uncomfortable with the rapidly ascending drug price trend.

In the top cancer markets of the world, such as, the United States and Europe, both the respective governments and also the private insurers have now started playing hardball with the cancer drugs manufacturers.

There are several instances in the developed markets, including the United States, where the stakeholders, such as, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) of the United Kingdom and American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) are expressing their concerns about manufacturers’ charging astronomical prices, even for small improvements in the survival time.

Following examples would give an idea of global sensitivity in this area:

  • After rejecting Roche’s breast cancer drug Kadcyla as too expensive, NICE reportedly articulated in its statement, “A breast cancer treatment that can cost more than US$151,000 per patient is not effective enough to justify the price the NHS is being asked to pay.”
  • In October 2012, three doctors at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center announced in the New York Times that their hospital wouldn’t be using Zaltrap. These oncologists did not consider the drug worth its price. They questioned, why prescribe the far more expensive Zaltrap? Almost immediately thereafter, coming under intense stakeholder pressure, , Sanofi reportedly announced 50 percent off on Zaltrap price.
  • Similarly, ASCO in the United States has reportedly launched an initiative to rate cancer drugs not just on their efficacy and side effects, but prices as well.

India:

  • India has already demonstrated its initial concern on this critical issue by granting Compulsory License (CL) to the local player Natco to formulate the generic version of Bayer’s kidney cancer drug Nexavar and make it available to the patients at a fraction of the originator’s price. As rumors are doing the rounds, probably some more patented cancer drugs would come under Government scrutiny to achieve the same end goal.
  • I indicated in my earlier blog post that the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) of India by its notification dated July 10, 2014 has decided to bring, among others, some anticancer drugs too, not featuring in the National List of Essential Medicines 2011 (NLEM 2011), under price control.
  • Not too long ago, the Indian government reportedly contemplated to allow production of cheaper generic versions of breast cancer drug Herceptin in India. Roche – the originator of the drug ultimately surrendered its patent rights in 2013, apprehending that it would lose a legal contest in Indian courts, according to media reports. Biocon and Mylan thereafter came out with biosimilar version of Herceptin in the country with around 40 percent lesser price.

Hence, responsible pricing of cancer drugs would continue to remain a key pressure-point  in the days ahead.

Increasing R&D investments coming in oncology:

Considering lucrative business growth opportunities and financial returns from this segment, investments of global pharma players remain relatively high in oncology, accounting for more than 30 percent of all preclinical and phase I clinical product developments, with 21 New Molecular Entities (NMEs) being launched and reaching patients in the past two years alone, according to IMS Health.

However, it is also worth noting that newly launched treatments typically increase the overall incremental survival rate between two and six months.

Opportunities for anti-cancer biosimilars:

With gradual easing out of the regulatory pathways for biosimilar drugs in the developed markets, especially in the US, a new competitive dynamic is evolving in the high priced, over US$ 40 billion, biologics market related to cancer drugs. According to IMS Health, on a global basis, biosimilars are expected to generate US$ 6 to12 billion in oncology sales by 2020, increasing the level of competition but accounting for less than 5 percent of the total biologics market even at that time.

Alarming situation of cancer in India:

A major report, published in ‘The Lancet Oncology’ states that In India, around 1 million new cancer cases are diagnosed each year, which is estimated to reach 1.7 million in 2035.

The report also highlights, though deaths from cancer are currently 600,000 -700,000 annually, it is expected to increase to around 1.2 million during this period.

Such high incidence of cancer in India is attributed to both internal factors such as, poor immune conditions, genetic pre-disposition or hormonal and also external factors such as, industrialization, over growth of population, lifestyle and food habits.

The Lancet Oncology study showed that while incidence of cancer in the Indian population is only about a quarter of that in the United States or Europe, mortality rates among those diagnosed with the disease are much higher.

Experts do indicate that one of the main barriers of cancer care is its high treatment cost, that is out of reach for millions of Indians. They also believe that cancer treatment could be effective and cheaper, if detected early. Conversely, the treatment would be more expensive, often leading to bankruptcy, if detected late and would, at the same time, significantly reduce the chances of survival too.

The fact that cancer is being spotted too late in India and most patients lack access to treatment, would be quite evident from the data that less than even 30 percent of patients suffering from cancer survive for more than five years after diagnosis, while over two-thirds of cancer related deaths occur among people aged 30 to 69.

Unfortunately, according to the data of the Union Ministry of Health, 40 percent of over 300 cancer centers in India do not have adequate facilities for advanced cancer care. It is estimated that the country would need at least 600 additional cancer care centers by 2020 to meet this crying need.

Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer, accounting for over 1 in 5 of all deaths from cancer in women, while 40 percent of cancer cases in the country are attributable to tobacco.

Indian Market and key local players:

Cancer drug market in India was reported to be around Rs 2,000 Crore (US$ 335 million) in 2013 and according to a recent Frost & Sullivan report, is estimated to grow to Rs 3,881 Crore (US$ 650 million) by 2017 with a CAGR of 15.46 percent, throwing immense business growth opportunities to pharma players.

Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) is one of the leading Indian players in oncology. DRL has already developed biosimilar version of Rituxan (Rituximab) of Roche, Filgastrim of Amgen and has also launched the first generic Darbepoetin Alfa and Peg-grafeel.

Other major Indian players in this field are Cipla, Lupin, Glenmark, Emcure, Biocon, Ipca, Natco, Intas, Reliance Life Science, Zydus Cadila and some more. These home grown companies are expected to take a leading role in the fast growing oncology segments of India, together with the major MNC players, as named above.

Analysis of detailed opportunities that would be available to these companies and consequent financial impacts could be a subject of separate discussion.

Conclusion:

Unlike many other developed and developing countries of the world, there is no system yet in place in India to negotiate prices of innovative patented drugs with the respective manufacturers, including those used for cancer. However, NPPA is now moving fast on reducing prices of cancer drugs. It has reportedly pulled up six pharma for not providing pricing data of cancer drugs sold by them.

Further, CL for all patented anti-cancer drugs may not be a sustainable measure for all time to come, either. One robust alternative, therefore, is the intense price negotiation for patented drugs in general, including anti-cancer drugs, as provided in the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy 2012 (NPPP 2012).

This important issue has been under consideration of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) since 2007. The report produced by the committee formed for this specific purpose, after dilly-dallying for over five years, now hardly has any takers and gathering dusts.

I reckon, much discussed administrative inertia, insensitivity and abject lack of sense of urgency of the previous regime, have desisted the DoP from progressing much on this important subject, beyond of course customary lip services, as on date. Intense lobbying by vested interests from across the world, seems to have further helped pushing this envelope deep inside an inactive terrain.

The new Government would hopefully make the DoP break its deep slumber now to resolve this critical issue decisively, in a time bound manner, assigning clear accountability, without any further delay.

At the same time, shouldn’t both the Honorable Ministers of Health and Chemicals & Fertilizers, taking the State Governments on board, put their collective resources together to create the following, expeditiously:

- A robust national health infrastructure for cancer care

- A transparent mechanism to prevent escalating cancer drug prices and other treatment costs

Hope, the good days would come to the cancer patients of India, at least, sooner than never.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion. 

Indian Pharmaceutical Market in February 2014 – A Snap Shot

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According to the Retail Audit dated March 2014 of well reputed AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd, in the month of February 2014, the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) registered a turnover of 5902 Crore (around US$ 980 million) growing at 4.5 percent against Rs. 6,227 Crore (around US$1 billion) in January 2014 with a growth of 8.5 percent.

The growth break-up for the month is as follows:

  • -0.2 percent from existing products
  • 3.2 percent from new launches
  • 1.5 percent from price increases

However, the volume growth of 2.6 percent during Dec’13 to Feb’14 quarter has been better than the same for the corresponding period of the previous year, which was 0.2 percent.

February 2014: Impact of DPCO 2013:

  • The products covered under DPCO 2013 de-grew by (-13.6) percent, whereas rest of the products grew by 7.4 percent resulting an overall growth of 4.5 percent for the month
  • The DPCO 2013 portfolio for GSK de-grew by (-30.7) percent and the same for Ranbaxy registered a negative growth of (-25.2) percent, whereas Sun Pharma had the least impact with its DPCO 2013 portfolio de-growing at -6.8 percent.

Top performers in growth within ‘Top 10 Companies’: 

  • Sun Pharma at 18.1 percent
  • Lupin at 9.3 percent
  • Alkem at 6.7 percent

 Monthly growth of Indian Companies against MNCs:

  • Indian companies at 6.9 percent
  • MNCs at (- 1.7) percent

Top growing MNCs for the month:

  • MSD at 17.3 percent
  • AstraZeneca at 15.3 percent
  • Merck Serono at 5.1 percent

Top 5 growing therapy areas for the month:

  • Anti-diabetic at 13.3 percent
  • Dermatological at 12.5 percent
  • Respiratory at 6.2 percent
  • Cardiological at 5.9 percent
  • Gastrointestinal at 5.1 percent

It is worth noting that Anti-infective market de-grew by 0.9 percent during the month.

Top growing brands:

  • Lantus (Sanofi) at 25 percent
  • Monocef (Aristo) at 23 percent (despite de-growth of the therapy area)
  • Glycomet-GP (USV) at 23 percent
  • Skinlite (Zydus Cadila) at 19 percent
  • Aciloc (Cadila Pharmaceuticals) at 15 percent

New Launches:

Total 107 Brands (generic formulations) were launched in February 2014, which justifies why new launches contributed 3.2 percent of the total growth of 4.5 percent for the month.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Kind Courtesy: AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd.

 

Sets 2013, Dawns 2014: Top 7 Pharma Developments

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Wish You Good Health, Happiness, Success and Prosperity in 2014

In this article I shall focus on ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’, both while ‘Looking Back to 2013′ and also during my ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′.

Looking Back to 2013:

While looking back, the ‘Top 7  Pharma Developments’ unfolded in India during 2013, in my opinion, are as follows:

1. Supreme Court judgment on Glivec: 

The landmark Supreme Court judgment on the Glivec case has vindicated, though much to the dismay of pharma MNCs, the need to strike a right balance between encouraging and protecting innovation, including incremental ones, and the public health interest of India.

2. DPCO 2013:

Following the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy (NPPP) of December 2012, the new Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013) signaled a significant departure from the decades old systems of arriving at both the ‘span’ and also the ‘methodology’ of drug price control in India. However, its implementation has been rather tardy as on today.

As a result, at the very beginning of the process of its effective roll-out, the new DPCO faltered badly. It created unprecedented complications and dead-locks not just for the pharmaceutical companies and the trade, but for the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), as well, which has not been able to announce the new ceiling prices for at least 100 essential drugs, even 8 months after notification of this order.

The pharma companies and the NGOs have already taken this policy to the court, though for different reasons. The rationale for the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) 2011 has also been questioned by many along with a strong demand for its immediate review.

Thus much awaited DPCO 2013 is still charting on a slippery ground.

3. India, China revoked 4 pharma patents:

In the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) arena many National Governments have now started asserting themselves against the prolonged hegemony of the Western World pressing for most stringent patent regime across the globe, at times even surreptitiously. Such assertions of these countries signal a clear tilt in the balance, favoring patients’ health interest rather than hefty gains in business profits, much to the delight of majority of world population.

Revocation of four drug patents by India and China within a fortnight during July-August 2013 period has thus raised many eyebrows, especially within the pharma Multinational Corporations (MNCs). In this short period, India has revoked three patents and China one.

While these unexpected and rather quick developments are probably double whammy for the pharma MNCs operating in India and China, a future trend would possibly emerge as soon as one is able to connect the evolving dots.

4. Supreme Court intervened in Clinical trials (CT):

With a damning stricture to the Indian Drug Regulator, the Supreme Court, in response to a PIL filed by the NGO Swasthya Adhikar Manch, came out heavily on the way Clinical Trials (CTs) are approved and conducted in the country.

Breaking the nexus decisively between a section of the powerful pharma lobby groups and the drug regulator, as highlighted even in the Parliamentary Committee report, the Ministry of Health, as reported to the Supreme Court, is now in the process of quickly putting in place a robust and transparent CT mechanism in India.

This well thought-out new system, besides ensuring patients’ safety and fair play for all, is expected to have the potential to help reaping a rich economic harvest through creation of a meaningful and vibrant CT industry in India, simultaneously benefitting millions of patients, in the years ahead.

5. US-FDA/UK-MHRA drug import bans: 

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data, by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have culminated into several import bans of drugs manufactured in those units. All these incidents have just not invited disgrace to the country in this area, but also prompted other national regulators to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

This despicable mindset of the concerned key players, if remains unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming bright opportunities.

The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies.

6. Pharma FDI revisited in India: 

After a series of inter-ministerial consultations, the Government of India has maintained 100 percent FDI in pharma brownfield projects through FIPB route. However, removal of the ‘non-compete’ clause in such agreements has made a significant difference in the pharma M&A landscape.

7. ‘No payment for prescriptions’:

Unprecedented acknowledgement and the decision of GSK’s global CEO for not making payments to any doctor, either for participating or speaking in seminars/conferences to influence prescription decision in favor of its brands, would indeed be considered as bold and laudable. This enunciation, if implemented in letter and spirit by all other players of the industry, could trigger a paradigm shift in the prescription demand generation process for pharmaceuticals brands.

Crystal Gazing 2014:

While ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′, once again, the following ‘Top 7 (most likely) Pharma Developments’, besides many brighter growth opportunities, come to the fore:

1. Public Interest Litigation (PIL) now pending before the Supreme Court challenging DPCO 2013 may put the ‘market based pricing’ concept in jeopardy, placing the pharma price control system back to square one.

2. The possibility of revision of NLEM 2011, as many essential drugs and combinations have still remained outside its purview, appears to be imminent. This decision, if taken, would bring other important drugs also under price control.

3. Universal Health Care (UHC) related pilot projects are likely to be implemented pan-India along with ‘free distribution of medicines’ from Government hospitals and health centers in 2014. Along side, more Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives may come up in the healthcare space improving access to quality healthcare to more number of patients.

4. With the Supreme Court interventions in response to the pending PILs, more stringent regulatory requirements for CT, Product Marketing approvals, Pricing of Patented Medicines and Ethical Marketing practices may come into force.

5. Possibilities of more number of patent challenges with consequent revocations and grant of several Compulsory Licenses (CL) for exorbitantly priced drugs in life-threatening disease areas like, cancer, loom large. At the same time, between 2013 and 2018, US$ 230 billion of sales would be at risk from patent expirations, offering a great opportunity to the Indian generic players to boost their exports in the developed markets of the world.

6. More consolidation within the pharmaceutical industry may take place with valuation still remaining high.

7. Overall pharma IPR scenario in India is expected to remain as robust and patient friendly as it is today, adding much to the worry of the MNCs and relief to the patients, in addition to the generic industry. More number of countries are expected to align with India in this important area.

Conclusion:

The year 2013, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India, was indeed eventful. The ‘Top Seven’ that I have picked-up, out of various interesting developments during the year, could in many ways throw-open greater challenges for 2014.

My ‘Crystal Gazing 2014’, would challenge the pharma players to jettison their old and traditional business mindsets, carving out new, time-specific, robust and market savvy strategic models to effectively harvest newer opportunities for growth.

That said, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to thrive in India with gusto, including the MNCs, mainly because of immense potential that the domestic market offers in its every conceivable business verticals, propelled by continuous high growth trend in the domestic consumption of medicines, excepting some minor aberrations.

The New Year 2014, I reckon, would herald yet another interesting paradigm for the pharma industry. A paradigm that would throw open many lucrative opportunities for growth, both global and local, and at the same time keep churning out different sets of rapidly evolving issues, requiring more innovative honed corporate skill-sets for their speedy redressal, as the time keeps ticking.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.