China Relaxes Drug Price Control: Is Pharma Euphoria In India Misplaced?

Posted on June 1, 2015 by Tapan Ray

On May 5, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China announced that price controls on most drugs sold there would be lifted from June 1, 2015. This move was believed to tackle issues of drug quality and to encourage innovation among domestic companies. Only narcotics and some listed psychotropic drugs would continue to be controlled by the government.

Quite like in India, Chinese price controls for most drugs were blamed by the industry for low quality and even adulterated medicines that seem to threaten public health.

Apprehension expressed:

Almost immediately after the announcement for ending price control on most drugs, many started expressing serious apprehensions that this decision of the Chinese Government would lead to higher drug prices for the consumers at the retail level.

Without taking any chances, the Chinese Government immediately switched to a high decibel communication process to allay such fear.

Chinese Government quickly acted on allaying the fear:

Xinhua reported, China’s top economic planner, almost simultaneously, asked the country’s price watchdogs to organize a six-month check on the movement of medicine prices, following the above decision.

The NDRC said the move is intended to detect any illegal practices disrupting market order, such as price fixing and artificial inflation of prices.

The agency also urged local authorities to create an online platform for better price monitoring. The NDRC also said the key intent is to curb illegal practices, such as price fixing and manipulative changes to increase drug costs.

Gigantic role of Chinese ‘Universal Health Care’ system highlighted:

The following explanations also came from the Chinese Government to highlight that this decision is not likely to have adverse impact on its citizens:

China has a function Universal Health Care (UHC) system in place

According to NDRC, 80 percent of drugs are sold through hospitals in China and not through retail channels. Thus, public hospitals are the places where most transactions take place and drugs are procured through a process that involves tough price negotiations with the pharma companies.

In addition to control of prices at the local procurement level, most of the freed drugs would still be controlled somewhat by various medical insurance plans even before they reach the Chinese hospitals, where 80 percent of drugs are dispensed.

With this announcement, the Chinese Government would lift controls on the price of about 2,700 medicines from June 1, 2015 that accounts for just about 23 percent of medications available in the country.

Experts also said they expected medicine prices to remain unchanged.

Has the pricing pressure in China increased, on the Contrary?

On May 26, 2015 in an article titled, “Foreign Drug makers Face Pressure to Lower Prices in China”, Bloomberg reported:

“Starting June 1, 2015 most drugs in China will be liberated from government-set price caps. For foreign drug makers, though pressure to cut prices is rising. Since late last year, many provincial governments have introduced new bidding systems to bring down the cost of medicines they procure, and they’re pushing multinationals to compete more directly with cheap local generics on price.”

Chinese healthcare scenario is different from India:

From the above scenario, it is abundantly clear that Chinese drug procurement, distribution and consumption scenario is quite different from India.

China’s UHC is well in place and over 80 percent of its population gets medicines from public hospitals. Whereas, UHC seems to have been virtually jettisoned in India by the incumbent Government, at least for now, and around 75 percent of the populations purchase medicines from the retail market, out of pocket.

Whereas, the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) of China announced in May 2015 that it would increase healthcare subsidies this year by 19 percent, i.e. just over US$ 60 per person, India decided not to make any increase even on its abysmal low expenditure on health, in its Union Budget 2015.

According to the National Health Policy 2015 (Draft) of India, total per capita health expenditure of the country was at US$ 62 in 2011, against China’s US$ 274 for the same year. This gap is likely to increase significantly with China adding to it another US$ 60 per capita through increase in healthcare subsidies in 2015.

Chinese Government believes that this step would help improve economic growth and boost domestic consumption, whereas Indian Government obviously thinks differently.

‘Why not in India’ type of reaction is misplaced:

There are many other critical differentiating factors in the comparative healthcare scenario between India and China.

Be that as it may, keeping only the above differences in mind, when one comes across some weird reasoning in a section of the Indian media stating, no wonder that raises many other eyebrows simultaneously. More so, as pharma related Indian media is not just vibrant, a large section of it is mostly on the ball, with up to date domain knowledge, and presenting incisive analysis.

A bizarre report: “Comparing apples to oranges”?

That said, I recently noted, while flipping through some pharma related business reports, a bizarre and seemingly uninformed comment on this subject. The article recently published in a leading business daily questioned, why the drug pricing policies of India and China are different? Obviously the author does not seem to be aware of the differences in the overall healthcare scenario between India and China, as deliberated above.

If the above question is taken as benign and laced with a dash of ignorance, it certainly raises the good old and much often repeated question, “Are we comparing apples to oranges”?

This is because we are comparing medicine procurement, distribution, usages and consumption scenarios of those two different countries that cannot be practically compared at all, especially in this regard.

An equally bizarre comment?

To make such ‘off the cuff’ reports spicy, some news-unworthy masala is also usually sprinkled on it. If I remember correctly, I read somewhere in one such typical report, probably a head honcho of the Indian unit of a pharma MNCs making blissfully ignorant, equally bizarre, attention hungry, ‘shooting from the hip’ type of remarks. The person most probably commented something like; the decade long ‘draconian price control in China’ failed to improve access to medicines. Thus, Indian Government, he imagines, should strongly introspect on its drug price control and allow free pricing for all drugs. I am not very sure, whether this is the representative view of the pharma industry in India or probably not.

Domain experts’ eyes on the ball:

Fortunately and most likely in the same piece, the real domain experts made very pertinent and sensible comments on India China comparison on this critical issue.

I hasten to add, this is my personal view, and may be the author concerned meant something different, which I would accept with due respect and humility.

Conclusion:

Just because China has relaxed drug price control in the context of its own environment of a reasonably well-functioning ‘Universal Health Care’ system, India should not toe the line with its abysmally poor public healthcare products and services offerings. As a result of this, the country records one of the highest, if not the highest, out of pocket expenditure towards medicine in the world.

The bizarre reports and comments in this regard, as above, probably need to be taken, not with a pinch but loads of salt, and trashed for abject ignorance in the specific area.

Moreover, the Indian Government too does not seem to be in any mood just yet, to pay attention in the area of ‘Universal Health Care’ to ensure health for all in the country. The situation is not expected to improve in this year either, as the Government has not made requisite budgetary allocations for health, to play the ball as the time demands.

Does all these not mean that, going by the Chinese example, the ill-informed euphoria of a section of the Indian pharma industry is unrealistic, if not absolutely misplaced?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Booming Sales Of Unapproved Drugs: Do We Need “Safe In India” Campaign For Medicines?

Posted on May 18, 2015 by Tapan Ray

“To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men” - Abraham Lincoln

Not just the Federal Drug Administration of the United States (USFDA), global concerns are being expressed regularly about the laxity of drug regulatory and clinical trial standards in India, exposing patients to health safety related risks.

The problem is significantly more with the Fixed Dose Combination (FDC) Drugs for various reasons. This is worrisome because; the domestic market for FDCs is very large and growing much faster, in sharp contrast to the western world. For example, in 2011-12 FDCs accounted for more than half of all NSAID and oral anti-diabetic drug sales, and one-third and one-fifth of anti-psychotic and anti-depressant/benzodiazepine sales, respectively, according to a recent study. Both the domestic and multi-national pharma players market FDCs in India

Alarmingly, a plethora of FDCs unapproved by the drug regulators of India on their rationality, efficacy and safety, have flooded the domestic pharma market, in large quantities.

All such drugs are being actively promoted by the respective pharma players, widely prescribed by the doctors, openly sold by the chemists and freely consumed by the patients without any apprehension or having no inkling of the magnitude of the possible health hazards that such drugs might cause, both in short and long term.

Public health safety hazard arising out of this scenario does not seem to have ever been estimated by the Indian drug regulators, despite indictments even by the Parliamentary Standing Committee, nor is there any properly functional system in place to capture such data for meaningful analysis.

As the saying goes ‘better late than never’, a credible report on this menace has just been published on May 12, 2015 by independent experts, which I shall discuss in this article.

Is the situation out of control?

On the ground, the situation seems to be out of control of even the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO).

This is vindicated by a March 2013, written reply of the Minister for Health and Family Welfare, where the Government reportedly informed the Lok Sabha (the lower House of the Parliament) that in twenty three cases of new FDC, licenses have been granted by the State Licensing Authorities (SLAs) without the mandatory approval of the DCGI and action will be taken in all these cases.

However, no one seems to know, as yet, what action the Government has taken against those errant officials.

The latest investigative report on the criticality of the situation:

The May 12, 2015 issue of “PLOS Medicine” – a Peer-Reviewed Open-Access Journal, published the results of an investigation on CDSCO approval for and availability of oral FDC drugs in India from four therapeutic areas – analgesia (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), diabetes (metformin), depression/anxiety (anti-depressants/benzodiazepines), and psychosis (anti-psychotics).

This study was done based on the Department Related Parliamentary Committee on Health and Family Welfare’s 2012 Report, stating that manufacturing licenses for large numbers of FDCs had been issued by state authorities without prior approval of the CDSCO in violation of rules, and considered that some ambiguity until 1 May 2002 about states’ powers might have contributed to this worrying consequences.

I shall also discuss the above Parliamentary Committee report in this article.

Booming sales of unapproved drugs:

‘PLOS Medicine’ report highlighted the following:

A. They obtained information on FDC formulations approved between1961 and 2013 in each therapeutic area from the CDSCO.

B. FDC sales details were obtained for the period 2007 to 2012 from PharmaTrac database of drug sales in India. Over the five years included in the time-trend analysis, FDCs accounted for an increasing proportion of total sales volumes. By 2011–2012, FDCs accounted for more than half of all NSAID and oral anti-diabetic drug sales, and one-third and one-fifth of anti-psychotic and anti-depressant/benzodiazepine sales, respectively.

C. Of the 175 FDC formulations marketed in India in the therapeutic areas studied, only 60 (34 percent) were approved.

Out of these, percentages of approved formulations are as follows:

- 80 percent of 25 marketed metformin FDC formulations

- 27 percent of 124 NSAID FDC formulations

- 19 percent of 16 anti-depressant/benzodiazepine FDC formulations

- 30 percent of 10 anti-psychotic FDC formulations

D. In 2011–2012, percentages of FDC sales volumes arising from unapproved formulations was:

- 43 percent for anti-psychotics

- 69 percent for anti-depressants/benzodiazepines

- 28 percent for NSAIDs

- 0.4 percent for metformin

E. Formulations including drugs of which use is banned or restricted internationally accounted for 13.6 percent and 53 percent of NSAID and anti-psychotic FDC sales, respectively.

F. While “ambiguity” in the rules prior to 2002 was advanced as a reason for some FDCs having been marketed without a record of central approval, the researchers identified no ambiguity, and in fact, following an amendment to the rules in May 2002 that extended the requirements on approval applicants, new FDCs continued to be marketed without a record of central approval.

The suggestions:

The ‘PLOS Medicine’ report concluded with the following suggestions:

Unapproved formulations should be banned immediately, prioritizing those withdrawn or banned internationally, and undertaking a review of benefits and risks for patients.

To ensure long-term safety and effectiveness of new medicines marketed in India, as well as transparency of the approval process, amendments in India’s regulatory processes and drug laws are called for. A review should be undertaken of the safety and effectiveness of FDCs currently available in India.

Indian lawmakers too pointed out this embarrassing regulatory laxity:

This saga of drug regulatory laxity in general and for the FDCs in particular, is continuing since quite a while. This is despite the fact that the Department Related Parliamentary Committee on Health and Family Welfare presented its 59^th Report of 118 pages in total on the functioning of the Indian Drug Regulator – the Central Drug Standards Control Organization (CDSCO) in both the houses of the Parliament on May 08, 2012.

The report begins with a profound observation:

Medicines apart from their critical role in alleviating human suffering and saving lives have very sensitive and typical dimensions for a variety of reasons. Prescription drugs are the only commodities for which the consumers have no role to play. Nor are they able to make any informed choices, except to buy and consume whatever is prescribed or dispensed to them, because of the following reasons:

Drug regulators decide which medicines can be marketed
Pharma companies either produce or import drugs that they can profitably sell
Doctors decide which drugs and brands to prescribe
Consumers are at the mercy of external entities to protect their interests

The ‘Mission Statement’ of CDSCO is ‘Industry Oriented’ and not ‘Patient Focused:

Very interestingly, the lawmakers’ report highlights, citing the following examples, how out of line the ‘Mission Statement’ of CDSCO is, as compared to the same of other countries, by being blatantly industry oriented instead of safeguarding Public Health and Safety interests :

	Drug Regulator	The ‘Mission Statement’
1.	CDSCO, India	Meeting the aspirations…. demands and requirements of the pharmaceutical industry.
2.	USFDA, USA	Protecting the public health by assuring the safety, efficacy, and security of human and veterinary drugs.
3.	MHRA, UK	To enhance and safeguard the health of the public by ensuring that medicines and medical devices work, and are acceptably safe.
4.	TGA, Australia	Safeguarding public health & safety in Australia by regulating Medicines…

Consequently, the Parliamentary Committee took a strong exception for such utter disregard and continued neglect of patients’ interest by the Drug Regulator of India. It recommended immediate amendment of the ‘Mission Statement’ of CDSCO incorporating in very clear terms that the existence of the organization is solely for the purpose of protecting the best interest of patients and their safety. It is needless to say, thereafter it would call for its stringent conformance with high precision.

A scathing remark against CDSCO:

The parliamentary Committee report made the following scathing remarks on CDSCO in its point 2.2:

“The Committee is of the firm opinion that most of the ills besetting the system of drugs regulation in India are mainly due to the skewed priorities and perceptions of CDSCO. For decades together it has been according primacy to the propagation and facilitation of the drugs industry, due to which, unfortunately, the interest of the biggest stakeholder i.e. the consumer has never been ensured.”

Allegation of possible collusion:

The report also deliberates not only on the utter systemic failure of CDSCO along with the DCGI’s office to enforce the drug regulations effectively, but also towards a possible collusion between CDSCO and the pharmaceutical industry to implement a self-serving agenda by hoodwinking the system. This is a very serious allegation, which needs to be thoroughly probed and the findings of which should be made public for everybody’s satisfaction.

The committee, therefore, felt that effective and transparent drug regulation, free from all commercial influences and callous enforcement of rules and laws, are absolutely essential to ensure safety, efficacy and quality of drugs keeping just one objective in mind, i.e., welfare of patients.

Do we need “Safe in India” campaign for drugs?

Do we need a well-hyped “Safe in India” campaign for drugs? Looking around, at least conceptually, the answer is probably ‘yes’…Seriously…I am not joking!

The reason being, despite scathing remarks of the Parliamentary Standing Committee in 2012, apparently no systematic enquiry has been undertaken by the CDSCO to ascertain the reason for continuation and the veracity of this menace, just yet.

A very significant number of unapproved medications still remain undetected by the drug regulators and continue to be abundantly available, frequently prescribed, openly sold and freely consumed by the patients without even an iota of doubt regarding possible health safety hazards that these prescription drugs might cause.

May 2015 ‘PLOS Medicine’ Report helps unraveling the underbelly of the drug regulatory scenario in India, along with its systemic decay, which fails to halt the possible serious health safety hazards that Indian patients are exposed to.

India’s image as an emerging ‘pharmacy of the world’ for cheaper generic drugs has already been dented with a number of ‘import bans’ from the US and UK for flouting the specified drug manufacturing quality standards.

The saga of ‘import bans’ for Indian drugs, together with this critical health safety related menace, probably necessitates an effective launch of a “Safe in India” campaign for medicines, in general, by the Government.

This initiative gains additional importance, as painstakingly developed reputation of the Indian drug exporters, including the largest domestic players, has now been dented. It needs to be revamped, sooner.

I addressed a related issue in my blog post of February 3, 2014, titled “FDA ‘Import Bans: Valuing Drug Supply Chain Security For Patients’ Safety.”

Conclusion:

Effective resolution of this critical issue demands high priority at the highest level of the decision making process of the Government, with commensurate sense of urgency.

Keeping that in mind, would it be a bad idea, if just like “Make in India” campaign of the Prime Minister; “Safe in India” campaign for medicines is also undertaken with equal gusto and monitored by the top echelon of the country’s rejuvenated governance machinery?

This initiative would probably help sending the very contextual ‘shape up or ship out’ signal to the drug regulators, both at the Center and also in the States to erase the prevailing menace for good.

In that process, it would eventually allay the public health safety concern with the ‘Made in India’ drugs, coming out of ‘Make in India’ campaign, not just in the country, but also beyond its shores.

The speed of action in this situation is the essence. Otherwise, the following golden words of wisdom as enunciated by Abraham Lincoln would keep haunting us, till the remedial measures taken by the Government become palpable on the ground:

“To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men”

By: Tapan J. Ray

The Curious Imbroglio: Innovation, IPR, India and ‘Uncle Sam’

Posted on May 4, 2015 by Tapan Ray

Last week, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released the “2015 Special 301 Report”, which is its annual review of the global state of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection and enforcement.

While looking through the Kaleidoscope of business interests of the United States, variegated changing patterns of a wide variety of country-specific observations can be noted in this report.

It is widely believed that the report ‘pontificates’ about the adequacy and effectiveness of IPR protection and enforcement of its trading partners against USTR’s own yardstick, hinting unhesitantly at the possible consequences, if found lacking.

USTR reviewed seventy-two (72) trading partners for this year’s Special 301 Report, and placed thirty-seven (37) of them on the ‘Priority Watch List’ or ‘Watch List’. Thirteen (13) countries – Algeria, Argentina, Chile, China, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Kuwait, Pakistan, Russia, Thailand, Ukraine, and Venezuela, are on the ‘Priority Watch List’. These countries will be the subjects of particularly intense bilateral engagement during the coming year.

India specific significant elements of the 2015 Special 301 Report include the following:

Increased bilateral engagement in 2015 between the United States and India on IPR concerns, following the 2014 Out-of-Cycle Review (OCR) of India on this issue.

India will remain on the ‘Priority Watch List’ in 2015, but with the full expectation of US about substantive and measurable improvements in India’s IPR regime for the benefit of a broad range of innovative and creative industries.

The US offered to work with India to achieve these goals.

No OCR at this time for India, but US will monitor progress in India over the coming months, and is prepared to take further action, if necessary.

The 2015 report also highlights:

“While it is impossible to determine an exact figure, studies have suggested that up to 20% of drugs sold in the Indian market are counterfeit and could represent a serious threat to patient health and safety.”

According to media report, a senior Commerce & Industry Ministry official has commented, “India is disappointed at being featured yet again in the US ‘Priority Watch List’ of weak IPR countries. But it is not worried.”

Recent Action by India:

In October 2014, almost immediately after Prime Minister Modi’s return to India from the US, the Government formed a six-member ‘Think Tank’ to draft ‘National IPR Policy’ and suggest ways and legal means to handle undue pressure exerted by other countries in IPR related areas.

The notification mandated the ‘Think Tank’ to examine the current issues raised in such reports and give suggestions to the ministry of Commerce & Industry as appropriate.

However, the domestic pharma industry, many international and national experts together with the local stakeholders, continue to strongly argue against any fundamental changes in the prevailing robust patent regime of India.

In the same month, the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) constituted a six-member ‘Think Tank’ chaired by Justice (Retd.) Prabha Sridevan to draft the ‘National IPR Policy’ of India. Taking quick strides, on December 19, 2014, the Think Tank’ released its first draft of 29 pages seeking stakeholders’ comments and suggestions on or before January 30, 2015. A meeting with the stakeholders was also scheduled on February 5, 2015 to take it forward.

Possible reasons of US concern on the draft ‘National IPR Policy’:

As I discussed in my blog post of January 19, 2015 titled, “New “National IPR Policy” of India – A Pharma Perspective”, I reckon, there are three possible key areas of concern of American pharma industry against Indian patent regime. However, in the draft National IPR Policy India seems to have stood its ground in all those areas.

The draft IPR policy responded to those concerns as follows:

Concern 1: “India’s patentability requirements are in violations of ‘Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS)’ Agreement.” (Though it has not yet been challenged at the WTO forum)

Draft IPR Policy states: “India recognizes that effective protection of IP rights is essential for making optimal use of the innovative and creative capabilities of its people. India has a long history of IP laws, which have evolved taking into consideration national needs and international commitments. The existing laws were either enacted or revised after the TRIPS Agreement and are fully compliant with it. These laws along with various judicial pronouncements provide a stable and effective legal framework for protection and promotion of IP.”

A recent vindication: On January 15, 2015, Indian Patent Office’s (IPO’s) rejection of a key patent claim on Hepatitis C drug Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) of Gilead Sciences further reinforces that India’s patent regime is robust and on course.

Gilead’s patent application was opposed by Hyderabad based Natco Pharma. According to the ruling of the IPO, a new “molecule with minor changes, in addition to the novelty, must show significantly enhanced therapeutic efficacy” when compared with a prior compound. This is essential to be in conformity with the Indian Patents Act 2005. Gilead’s patent application failed to comply with this legal requirement.

Although Sovaldi ((sofosbuvir) carries an international price tag of US$84,000 for just one treatment course, Gilead, probably evaluating the robustness of Sovaldi patent against Indian Patents Act, had already planned to sell this drug in India at a rice of US$ 900 for the same 12 weeks of therapy.

It is envisaged that this new development at the IPO would prompt entry of a good number of generic equivalents of Sovaldi. As a result, the price of sofosbuvir (Sovaldi) formulations would further come down.

However, reacting to this development Gilead has said, “The main patent applications covering sofosbuvir are still pending before the Indian Patent Office…This rejection relates to the patent application covering the metabolites of sofosbuvir. We (Gilead) are pleased that the Patent Office found in favor of the novelty and inventiveness of our claims, but believe their Section 3(d) decision to be improper. Gilead strongly defends its intellectual property. The company will be appealing the decision as well as exploring additional procedural options.”

For more on this subject, please read my blog post of September 22, 2014 titled, “Gilead: Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place In India”

Concern 2: “Future negotiations in international forums and with other countries.”

Draft IPR Policy states: “In future negotiations in international forums and with other countries, India shall continue to give precedence to its national development priorities whilst adhering to its international commitments and avoiding TRIPS plus provisions.”

Concern 3: “Data Exclusivity or Regulatory Data Protection.”

Draft IPR Policy states: “Protection of undisclosed information not extending to data exclusivity.”

I discussed a similar subject in my blog post of October 20, 2014 titled, “Unilateral American Action on Agreed Bilateral Issues: Would India Remain Unfazed?”

Confusion with the Prime Minister’s recent statement:

It is worth noting that in end April 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly remarked to align India’s patent laws with “international standards”.

What the Prime Minister really meant by patent laws with “international standards” could be of anybody’s guess. This is because, even the World Trade Organization (WTO) considers Indian Patents Act compliant to TRIPS Agreement, which has been globally accepted as the ‘Gold Standard’ in the realm of IPR…unless, of course, Prime Minister Modi intends to accept ‘TRIPS Plus’ provisions for India, under US pressure and at the cost of health interest of majority of Indian patients.

It is noteworthy though, his own Ministry of Commerce & Industry has categorically emphasized and re-emphasized several times in the past that India’s patent regime is fully TRIPS compliant.

To add greater credence to this argument, the noted free market economist and Professor of Economics at Columbia University – Arvind Panagariya, who has recently been appointed to run Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new NITI Aayog, has also endorsed it in his published articles, unambiguously.

As usual, leaving nothing to chance, immediately after the above remark of the Indian PM to align India’s patent laws with “international standards”, the USTR urged India to ‘expeditiously undertake’ initiatives stated by PM Modi, flashing across a long list of changes that the US wants to get incorporated in the Indian IP Acts and policies.

Pressure for amendment of Indian Patent Law:

From the intensity of pressure that the US Pharma industry is generating on the US Government, it is clear that American pharma industry will not be satisfied till Modi Government brings in changes in the Indian Patents Act 2005, as dictated by its constituents.

At the top of much publicized US wish list on IPR, features abolition of Section 3(d) of the Indian patent law. This provision of the Act denies patents to frivolous and incremental innovations without offering any significant value to the patients in terms of improved clinical efficacy of the drug. Many would term such innovation as attempts towards evergreening of patents through minor molecular manipulation or similar other means. This kind of innovation gives already a very high priced blockbuster drug another full term of patent monopoly, often with even higher price, at the cost of patients.

Pressure for a relook at the National IPR Policy:

In fact, the USTR 2015 report, also asks India to have yet another round of consultations with stakeholders before finalizing its IPR policy. This is widely construed as an attempt on the part of the US Government and industry to conclude their unfinished IPR agenda for India.

Whether Modi Government would be bullied by the American Pharma industry to succumb to its pressure at the cost of the Indian patients and going against the national and international experts’ opinion, only time would tell.

Benefits of Innovation and India:

India has amply demonstrated time and again that it does understand the value and benefits of innovation in different facets of life and business. The country endeavors to protect it too, according to the law of the land. However, there are still some procedural loose knots existing in the IPR environment of the country.

As stated above, for effective remedial measures in those areas, a ‘Think Tank’ has already been constituted by Modi Government to formulate a robust and comprehensive National IPR Policy.

In this context, a media report quoted a senior official from the Union Ministry of Commerce & Industry saying, “We hope this year we can convince the US that our laws are drafted in a way so as to protect both our consumer and industry’s interest. The new IPR policy that we are coming out with will take care of any anomalies or vagueness in our existing regime and make it tight and also fast-track clearances of patent applications.”

Would there be a ‘Ghost Writer’ for Indian IPR Policy?

The first draft of the policy has already been circulated in January 2015 and discussed in the following month with the stakeholders. However, American Pharma industry does not seem to be satisfied with its overall content, leave aside the nitty-gritty.

Going by this development some apprehends that a powerful lobby group probably wants to be the ‘Ghost Writer’ for the IPR Policy of India. Coincidentally enough, we also see the USTR blowing hot and cold on this critical issue…blowing hot through its ‘Special 301 Report’ and cold by praising Prime Minister Modi’s remark to align India’s patent laws with “international standards”.

India should play a catalytic role in changing the drug innovation model:

A paradigm shift in the drug innovation model can materialize only when there will be a desire to step into the uncharted frontier…coming out of the comfort zone of much familiar independent money spinning silos of all kinds of drug innovations…from break-through drugs to me-too varieties. Dove tailing scientific and business excellence with patients’ health interest, dispassionately, would then be the name of the game.

Though arduous, playing a catalytic role to bring out this transformation sooner, is extremely important for India. This is because, drug innovation with significant value addition would continue to remain as critical as access to important medicines for all, in perpetuity. India understands that just as clearly as USTR …for its ‘make in India’ campaign or otherwise. No well-orchestrated and spoon-fed pontification required in this area…uncalled for.

Conclusion:

The bottom line is, the US Pharma industry continues to flex its muscle relentlessly under the very often used, misused and even abused façade that India does not understand the value of innovation.

On the other hand, the general sentiment in this area, both national and international, favors India.

As the new Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog of India, Dr. Arvind Panagariya wrote, “India must call the US’ bluff on patents,” it’s indeed time to demonstrate the same, once and for all.

However, in the context of upholding patients’ health interest in India, a lurking fear does creep in, after PM Modi’s well publicized recent remark to align India’s patent laws with “international standards”, especially when Indian Patents Act 2005 is already TRIPS compliant, according to WTO requirements.

That said, in the midst of a raging debate involving innovation, IPR, India and ‘Uncle Sam’, the moot question that floats at the top of mind is:

Has seemingly tough-minded Prime Minister Modi already yielded to ‘Uncle Sam’s’ bullying tactics to effect changes in an otherwise robust Indian patent regime, and that too at the cost of health interest of needy patients of the country?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Would Affordable ‘Modicare’ Remain Just A Pipe Dream In India?

Posted on April 6, 2015 by Tapan Ray

When ‘Universal Health Care/Coverage (UHC)’, considering a critical socio-economic national responsibility’, has been implemented by the Governments in a large number of countries across the world, why has it still not been effectively addressed by the successive Governments in India, garnering adequate resources, at least, for its phased roll-out in the country?

According to published reports, not just all the developed countries of the world, a good number of developing nations too, including some in Africa, have various kinds of UHC mechanism already in place.

Even within the BRIC countries, India is still a laggard in this area.

Health related major national initiatives of this kind and scale, not only effectively addresses the issue of access to affordable healthcare for all, ensuring high quality of public health environment for a healthy society, but also helps improving economic productivity maintaining a healthy work force.

It goes without saying, UHC helps reducing ‘out of pocket expenses’ towards health, significantly.

OECD Health Statistics 2014: How does India compare?

Total health spending of India with only around 4.0 percent of GDP in 2012 was less than half the OECD average of 9.3 percent.

Public health spending usually tends to rise with the economic growth of a nation. However, despite high GDP growth in the past two decades, India ranks well below the OECD average in terms of per capita health expenditure, with spending of only US$ 157 in 2012 (calculated based on purchasing power parity), compared with an OECD average of US$ 3484.

It is indeed an irony that with highest billionaire wealth concentration, India still tops malnutrition chart in South Asia. (I discussed this subject in my blog post of January 26, 2015.)

Public sector usually becomes the main source of health funding:

In nearly all OECD countries, the public sector is the main source of health funding. However, in India, only 33 percent of health spending was funded by public sources in 2012, a much lower share than the average of 72 percent in OECD countries.

In India, health accounted for only 4.8 percent of total government spending in 2012, significantly lower than the 14.4 percent across OECD countries. Out-of pocket costs accounted for 60 percent of health spending in India in 2012, higher than in any other OECD country.

This trend has not improved much even today.

UHC deserves public funding:

In almost all OECD countries, including many developing nations, as well, UHC remains a key area of public health funding.

Interestingly, very often UHC is projected as an idealistic social goal that is within reach of only the prosperous countries of the world. This is indeed a myth, as UHC is in place also in countries like, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and even Rwanda in Africa, besides South-East Asian countries, such as, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and China.

The strong relationship between health and economic performance of a country has now been well established globally.

Many case studies covering both the developed and developing nations, clearly point out that a country’s desirable focus on UHC does not just increase the life expectancy of its people, in general, but also facilitates economic growth in a sustainable way, which India is so keenly working towards.

Expectations for UHC received further boost from the new Government:

Just before the Union Budget Proposal 2015-16, in November 2014, national media reported: “ ‘Modicare’ to introduce free medicines, health insurance for citizens”.

It highlighted that in a major health sector reform, the new Government would ensure that every resident in India has access to affordable healthcare with provisions for free essential medicines while bringing over a dozen of diseases, including cancer and heart ailments, under the ambit of the proposed National Health Assurance Mission.

Another pre-budget media report on December 30, 2014, flashed: “The National Health Assurance Mission (NHAM) set to roll, once PM Modi gives go-ahead”.

It articulated, NHAM that has been in the works since 2011 when the erstwhile Planning Commission’s expert group submitted its report on UHC, is likely to take final shape in 2015. PM Narendra Modi is, however, still to see the presentation.

NHP 2015, bolstered hope for early adoption:

On December 31, 2014, when the present Government was in the midst of a series of major policy announcements for the country, The National Health Policy 2015 (Draft) was also released, further bolstering the hope for early adoption of UHC.

I discussed a related issue in my blog post of March 16, 2015 titled, “With Frugal Public Resource Allocation Quo Vadis Healthcare in India?”

Affordable ‘Modicare’ overshadows even ‘Obamacare’?

Universal Health Care (UHC), as narrated in the National Health Policy (NHP) 2015 (NHP 2015 Draft) of Narendra Modi Government, making health a ‘Fundamental Right’ for Indian Citizens, is indeed profound in its both content and intent.

In this article, I would term the new health policy as ‘Modicare’, just as many others did. If implemented in letter and in spirit, as it has been proposed, NHP 2015 has the potential to overshadow even ‘Obamacare’ of the United States…hands down.

A change in the fundamental narrative:

UHC, as detailed in NHP 2015, changes the fundamental narrative of the country’s approach to extend healthcare services to all Indians, irrespective of caste, creed, income level, age or any other pre-determined and conceivable parameters.

However, for this purpose, Modi Government would need to double the public healthcare expenditure from its current level of less than 1 percent to 2.5 of the GDP. It was also indicated that the required fund would be raised by levying healthcare tax to citizens, directly or indirectly.

Government to assume a key role in healthcare:

Currently, private players are playing dominating role with around 70-80 percent share (around US$ 40 Billion) of total healthcare services domain in the country. In other words, public healthcare services cater to no more than 20 percent of the total market, and mostly are of dubious quality standards.

It is interesting to note, NHP 2015 places the Government as the major provider of quality healthcare services for all. However, an individual would have the right to opt for private facilities, of course by paying significantly more.

The business scenario could change dramatically for private sector:

In NHP 2015, the Government becomes the major provider of UHC services. The private sector healthcare players would then probably require going back to the drawing boards to reorganize their business models.

They may well choose to embrace Public Private Partnership (PP) initiatives related to UHC or decide to turn into to niche players in the high-price private healthcare space or something else, as they would deem appropriate. But surely, they would have to take a step or two back from the current dominant role, where there is virtually no competition from the public sector, even in the mass healthcare market.

NHP 2015, underscores the need for affordable drug prices. Thus, the private players could also face tough pricing pressure, as well, while negotiating for large Government procurement.

Both the above issues, when put together and in perspective, would probably not make the private healthcare players terribly enthused or feel at ease. In that scenario, the Government has its task well cut out, mainly for navigating through tough resistance coming from both the national and international lobby groups, in the process of implementation of ‘Modicare’ in India, of course, if it fructifies any time soon or at all.

No control on quality even in private healthcare services:

In India, besides medicines, there is no quality control on any healthcare services, be it public or private.

As public healthcare services are hardly available to a vast majority of Indian population, common people remain virtually at the mercy of pricing diktats of the private healthcare providers, while availing the same. They usually do not have any inkling for high cost of such services, which generally follow the simple ‘demand and supply’ market economy model.

With the implementation of NHP 2015, the Government being the single largest buyer and provider of both healthcare products and services, would presumably negotiate hard both on quality and prices with the respective suppliers, benefitting the patients immensely.

Moreover, since Indian citizens would be paying for healthcare on an ongoing basis through direct and indirect taxes, NHP 2015 proposes free medicines and diagnostics facilities to all, as and when UHC would roll out.

Quietly comes the dampener:

When the Union Budget 2015-16 raised the national allocation for health only by 2 percent over the previous year, it literally extinguished the hope for healthcare reform in India, any time soon, even in a phased manner.

Central budgetary allocation for this initiative is very important, as UHC has been planned to be funded both by the Union and State Governments in 75:25 ratio.

In this intriguing phase, Reuters came out with the ‘Breaking News’.

On March 27, 2015, it reported, though the health ministry developed NHP 2015 on UHC in coordination with the prime minister’s office last year, along with an expert panel, including an expert from the World Bank, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked for a drastic cutback of the ambitious healthcare plan after cost estimates came in at US$18.5 billion over five years. Consequently, this would delay a promise on healthcare made in his well-publicized election manifesto, indefinitely.

Prime minister Modi’s manifesto, ahead of 2014 parliamentary election that brought him to power, accorded “high priority” to the health sector and promised a ‘Universal Health Assurance’ plan. The manifesto also said, previous public health schemes that have been mired in payment delays, had failed to meet the growing healthcare needs of the public, the above report highlighted.

Initially, the new Union Health Ministry reportedly proposed rolling out the system from April 2015, and in October 2014 projected its cost as US$25.5 billion over four years.

By the time the project was presented to Modi in January 2015, the costs were already brought down to US$18.5 billion over five years. Even that revised estimate was considered too much and the program was not approved by the Prime Minister, without assigning any timeframe even for a relook.

The delay in ‘Modicare’ is intriguing:

Inordinate delay in the commencement of implementation process of ‘Modicare’ or UHC in India is rather intriguing, primarily due to the following two basic reasons, besides some others:

- NHP 2015 proposes to fund the scheme through indirect and direct taxation on people, who would be covered by this new health policy.

- Experts, such as, Nobel Laureate Dr. Amartya Sen, in scholarly writings, have established with strong evidences, both from the developed and developing nations, that the national focus on UHC goes well beyond just increase in the life expectancy of the population. Besides many other tangible benefits, UHC helps facilitate sustainable economic growth of a nation significantly, which India is now so keenly working on.

Conclusion:

Over the past couple of decades, despite impressive GDP growth of the country, successive Governments in India have not shown desirable inclination to invest in a comprehensive public healthcare project, like UHC.

As a result, the nation still suffers from public health maladies, such as, grossly inadequate number of doctors, nurses, other paramedics, number of hospital beds and other related infrastructure to cater to even the basic healthcare needs of all Indians.

Ironically, at the same time, either the government fails to spend the paltry budgeted amount because of poor governance, or even that small amount faces a year end drastic budgetary cut from the Ministry of Finance to manage the fiscal deficit target of the year, as happened even in 2014-15.

Considering the series of events that followed the announcement of the draft NHP 2015, it appears, the prospects for affordable ‘Modicare’ in India is rather bleak, as it stands today.

There is also a possibility that in the implementation process of ‘Modicare’ the Government may encounter tough resistance from interested lobby groups, purely for business considerations, as deliberated above.

The real reason for delay of ‘Modicare’ has not come from the horse’s mouth, just yet. Nonetheless, it is certainly one of those much hyped and publicized public promises of the Government that remained unfulfilled, at least in the financial year of 2015-16.

Although one should not try to see ghosts where there isn’t any, the moot question that still keeps haunting today: ‘Would much publicized and well sought-after ‘Modicare’ continue to remain just a ‘Pipe Dream’ in India?’

By: Tapan J. Ray

Union Budget Proposal 2015-16 of India : Is Pharma Industry Now Out of Focus?

Posted on March 2, 2015 by Tapan Ray

Budget Expectations:

Overall expectations of the Pharma Industry in India from the Union Budget perspective was very modest this year. The key areas were as follows:

- To encourage innovation, in-house R&D exemption limit was expected to be raised from 200 percent to 250 percent

- Excise duty rationalization was expected on:

Formulations (5 percent)
API (10 percent)

- A reduction of MAT (20 percent) was expected on SEZ

Union Budget Proposals:

Status quo

Impact:

In view of this scenario, there has been virtually no sector-specific direct impact of the Union Budget 2015-16 on the Pharma Industry. This critical sector seems to be out of focus of the Government from the budget perspective, at least for now.

By: Tapan J. Ray

What President Obama And Prime Minister Modi Discussed On IPR And Healthcare In India

Posted on February 2, 2015 by Tapan Ray

During the recent visit of the US President Barack Obama to India from January 25-27, 2015, both the domestic and international media was abuzz with the speculation, whether or not India would concede some ground to America on the prevailing, generally considered, well balanced patent regime in India.

Many expected that the American delegation would succeed in getting some specific assurances from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to follow the line of the US style Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) in India, which would help the American pharma companies to maximize their financial returns in the country.

The assurances from India were expected mainly in areas involving grant of patents even to those pharma products, that do not quality for the same under section 3(d) of the Indian Patents Act 2005, dilution of provisions for Compulsory License (CL) and creation of a new provision for Data Exclusivity in the country, besides a few others.

As everyone noticed, just before the US President’s visit, interested groups both in India and also from abroad intensified lobbying and released op-eds to create pressure on the Indian negotiators, in general, and the Prime Minister Modi in particular.

Terming the Indian Patents Act weak, the lobby groups turned the Indian IPR regime on its head. Playing the role of India’s benefactor, they re-packaged their shrill collective voice into pontificating words while giving interviews to the Indian media by saying: “A strong IPR regime could allow the country (India) to make a major contribution to tackling health challenges, both domestically and around the world.”

Additional US interest in Indian IP regime from TPP perspective:

Exemplary demonstration of India’s resistance to intense external pressure, time and again, for dilution of the IP regime in the country, seems to have become a model to follow for the emerging economies of the world, in general. This trend now gets reflected even among some of the members of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is a proposed regional regulatory and investment treaty.

According to reports, TPP members, such as, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam are negotiating hard to get incorporated somewhat similar to Indian IP rules in the TPP agreement. Besides America, other members of the TPP are Australia, Japan and New Zealand, Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru.

TPP negotiations are generally expected to follow the overall framework of American laws. However, according to media reports, based on the leaked draft of the TPP, the data exclusivity period for biologic medicines has already been negotiated down to 7 years, from 12 years under the US Affordable Care Act.

However, on January 27, 2015, US Senator Orrin Hatch, Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee reportedly said that he would oppose Senate approval of the TPP, if it does not provide 12 years of patent protection for biologics.

The same day, at a hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, US Trade Representative Mike Froman reportedly reiterated, “The US is insisting on 12 years of IP protections, even though the Obama administration’s budget calls for 7-year exclusivity on biologic meds.”

It is also worth noting that Nobel laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz in an op-ed titled, “Don’t Trade Away Our Health”, published in The New York Times of January 30, 2015 commented as follows:

“TPP could block cheaper generic drugs from the market. Big Pharma’s profits would rise, at the expense of the health of patients and the budgets of consumers and governments.”

Clicking on this short video clip you will be able watch another similar viewpoint on TPP, its general perspective and what it encompasses.

Thus, the closely guarded ‘turf war’ on TPP is now heating up, making negotiations increasingly tougher to arrive at a consensus on the IP rules that would be applicable to pharmaceutical products in this trade initiative. Consequently, the evolving scenario has prompted the interested groups to keenly follow, with hopes, the outcome of Presidents Obama’s recent visit to India, especially in the pharma IP areas. This is because, many emerging economies of the world are now appreciative of the prevailing well-balanced patent regime in India.

After the 12-nation TPP agreement comes into force, probably following the lines of the US IP laws, it is quite possible that India may sometime in future would prefer to be a part of this agreement for greater trade facilitation, as the country comes closer to America…Who knows?

However, in that case the bottomline is, India would have to amend relevant provisions of its Patents Act in conformance with the requirements of mainly the US pharmaceutical companies and the IP laws prevailing in America, as this will be necessary to become a new member of this treaty.

Discussion in the summit meeting:

According to the Joint Statement on the summit meeting released by the White House, President Obama and Prime Minister Modi discussed the following subjects related to IPR and Healthcare in India, as detailed below:

Reaffirmed the importance of providing transparent and predictable policy environments for fostering innovation. Both countries reiterated their interest in sharing information and best practices on IPR issues, and reaffirmed their commitment to stakeholders’ consultations on policy matters concerning intellectual property protection.

Reaffirmed their commitment to the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) and announced specific actions at home and abroad to prevent the spread of infectious diseases, including a CDC-Ministry of Health Ebola and GHSA preparedness training, expansion of the India Epidemic Intelligence Service, and development of a roadmap to achieve the objectives of the GHSA within three years.

Committed to multi-sectoral actions countering the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and cooperation in training of health workers in preparedness for infectious disease threats. The Leaders agreed to focus science and technology partnerships on countering antibiotic resistant bacteria and promoting the availability, efficacy and quality of therapeutics.

Welcomed further progress in promoting bilateral cooperation on cancer research, prevention, control, and management and agreed to continue to strengthen the engagement between the CDC and India’s National Centre for Disease Control.

Welcomed the upcoming completion of an Environmental Health, Occupational Health and Injury Prevention and Control MoU between the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Indian Council for Medical Research to further collaborative efforts to improve the health and welfare of both countries’ citizens.

Agreed to expand the India-U.S. Health Initiative into a Healthcare Dialogue with relevant stakeholders to further strengthen bilateral collaboration in health sectors including through capacity building initiatives and by exploring new areas, including affordable healthcare, cost saving mechanisms, distribution barriers, patent quality, health services information technology, and complementary and traditional medicine.

Pledged to encourage dialogue between the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and its Indian counterparts on traditional medicine.

Pledged to strengthen collaboration, dialogue, and cooperation between the regulatory authorities of the two countries to ensure safety, efficacy, and quality of pharmaceuticals, including generic medicines.

Agreed to accelerate joint leadership of the global Call to Action to end preventable deaths among mothers and children through a third meeting of the 24 participating countries in India in June 2015. As host, India will showcase the power of new partnerships, innovations and systems to more effectively deliver life-saving interventions.

Also lauded the highly successful collaboration on a locally produced vaccine against rotavirus, which will save the lives of an estimated 80,000 children each year in India alone, and pledged to strengthen the cooperation in health research and capacity building through a new phase of the India-U.S. Vaccine Action Program.

As stated earlier, during this summit meeting, US lobbyists were reportedly nurturing a hope that Prime Minister Modi would eventually agree, at least in principle, to jettison section 3(d) on the patentability criteria enshrined in the Indian Patents Act 2005 and significantly water down the country’s Compulsory License (CL) provisions. This expectation increased, when the US President made the investment promise of U$4 billion in India.

That said, from the above points of discussion in the joint statement, it appears that no breakthrough on the part of the US was achieved especially in the IPR space, during the summit.

However, in other areas of bilateral healthcare co-operation, such as, science and technology partnerships in countering antibiotic resistant bacteria; cancer research and traditional medicines; the reaffirmations made by the two leaders are encouraging.

US pressure on IP to continue:

Going by India’s reaffirmation during the summit meeting of its commitment to consultations with America on policy matters related to IPR protection and US Trade Representative Mike Froman’s reported affirmation of the following to the US lawmakers during a Congressional hearing held on January 27, 2015, it is construed by the IP activists that the kettle has possibly started boiling:

- “We have been concerned about the deterioration of the innovation environment in India, and we have engaged with the new government since they came into office in May of last year about our concerns,”

- “We held the first Trade Policy Forum in four years in November. I just returned from India yesterday as a matter of fact … and in all of these areas, we have laid out a work program with the government of India to address these and other outstanding issues.”

- “We are in the process of providing comments on that draft policy proposal on IPR, and we are committed to continuing to engage with them to underscore areas of work that needs to be done in copyright, in trade secrets as well as in the area of patents,”

- “We’ve got a good dialogue going now with the new government on this issue, and we’re committed to working to achieve concrete progress in this area,”

Media reports also indicate that US pressure on IPR would continue, as they highlight:

“Threatened by free trade of high-quality and affordable medicines, US-based pharmaceutical companies and politicians friendly with the industry are using prominently placed op-eds, large advertisements on Washington, D.C. buses, and letters to President Obama to spread false information -claiming India’s rules are not legal or discourage innovation. The companies have been threatening to withhold investment if India does not adopt weaker patent laws that would extend pharmaceutical monopolies and stymie the country’s generic industry.”

I discussed some of these issues in my blog post of January 19, 2015, titled “New National IPR Policy of India – A Pharma Perspective”.

Conclusion:

Irrespective of whatever the US-India Joint Statement says on IPR, some experts do apprehend that Indian Government may now wilt under continuous intense pressure from the American Government. This is mainly because, India’s Commerce and Industry’s Minister has reportedly sought America’s inputs in the finalization process of the new National IPR policy of the country.

On this score, let me hasten to add that it may not be prudent to read too much into it, as seeking stakeholders’ comments on such matter is a practice that India has been following since long on various issues and policies.

However, at the same time, other groups of experts nurture a quite different viewpoint. They are confident that the nationalist Modi Government, under no circumstances would concede its long nurtured strategic ground on IPR to the US power play.

Emerging countries across the globe are keenly watching this intense game of ‘Power Chess’, as they plan to emulate India in many of the pharmaceutical IP areas to uphold the public health interest, providing affordable healthcare to all.

These are still early days. Thus, in my view, on January 25, 2015, what President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed on the IPR regime in India may not be as important as what they would eventually decide to agree, disagree or agree to disagree in this area, moving on from here.

Only time would prove…not just who is right, that is pretty obvious to many, but who wilts at the end of the day…and more importantly, why?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

India’s ‘National Health Policy 2015′ Needs Wings To Fly

Posted on January 12, 2015 by Tapan Ray

Ensuring ‘access to healthcare for all’ has remained a key well-articulated good intent of all the successive Governments in India, cutting across the political regimes, since 1983.

The Union Ministry of Health & Family Welfare published the first “National Health Policy (NHP)”, in 1983, which was endorsed by the Indian Parliament in the same year. The policy categorically enunciated the following:

“India is committed to attaining the goal of ‘Health for All by the Year 2000 A.D.’ through the universal provision of comprehensive primary healthcare services”.

For the first time after independence, this document captured the key directions and dimension of the national health policy such as, the creation of infrastructure for primary healthcare; close co-ordination with health-related services and activities (like nutrition, drinking water supply and sanitation); active involvement and participation of voluntary organizations; provision of essential drugs and vaccines; qualitative improvement in health and family planning services; provision of adequate training; and medical research aimed at the common health problems of the people. However, it did not elaborate much about the Universal Health Care (UHC).

Abysmal public expenditure to meet the key goal of NHP 1983:

The NHP 1983, which was revised in 2002, recommended an increase in public health expenditure to 2.0 percent of GDP in 2010.

The 12^th Fiver Year Plan of the Government of India again acknowledged that the health sector expenditure by the central and state governments, both plan and non-plan will have to be substantially increased during the plan period. It also stated that the health expenditure was increased from 0.94 per cent of GDP in the 10th Plan to 1.04 per cent in 11th Plan and it should be increased to 2.5 per cent of GDP by the end of 12th Five Year Plan period.

That said, the bottom-line is, the current public spending on health is stagnating around 0.9 percent of the GDP. Leave aside implementation of the 1983 NHP goal of providing “Health for all by the year 2000 A.D”, even in 2015, India continues to grapple with the challenges for ensuring availability, accessibility, affordability and quality of comprehensive healthcare to all, though various governments have come and gone during this period. India’s rank in the Human Development Index (HDI) also remains at pitiful 136 out of 187 countries and despite improvements, India is likely to miss some key MDG targets in 2015.

Pockets of improvements – mostly grossly inadequate:

In the midst of gloom and doom in the health space of India, the 57 page draft NHP 2015 captures some of commendable improvements, as well, and very rightly so, which I am not going to repeat in this article.

A June 2013 report of IMS Institute also acknowledges that the extent of change and improvement in India’s healthcare system over the past decade is remarkable. The Government of India’s initiatives, as well as private sector actions and public-private-partnership programs, have contributed to this progress. Yet a lot more remains to be done.

The report highlights the following areas, which are worth taking note of:

The physical accessibility of public or private healthcare facilities is a challenge in rural areas. By contrast, in urban areas, accessibility is less of a challenge due to more facilities being available.

An increasing proportion of the population is using private healthcare  facilities for both in-patient and out-patient treatments. Long waiting times and absence of diagnostic facilities are among the main reasons private healthcare facilities are chosen over public centers for in-patient treatment. For out-patient treatment, the availability or doctors and quality of care are cited as reasons for selecting a private healthcare facility. However, patients would readily switch to public healthcare centers if these issues were addressed, the research report states.

The cost of treatment at a public healthcare facility is much more affordable than at a private center. However, due to lack of physical reach, availability of quality treatment and other practices, patients are forced to use more expensive private facilities, thus exacerbating affordability challenges. The majority of Out of Pocket (OoP) expenses are due to medicines.

Overall, while there are pockets of improvements, significant healthcare access challenges continue to exist for the Indian population, especially in rural areas.

OoP expenses on health is one of the highest in India:

Out of Pocket (OoP) expenditure on health is one of the highest in India at 61.7 percent, as acknowledges by the draft NHP 2015, as well. This is against 35.3 of China, 30.6 of Brazil, 44.6 of Sri Lanka, 61.3 of Bangladesh, 14 of Thailand, 8.9 of United Kingdom and 11.8 of the United States. The reason being, due to lack of access to cheaper and quality public health facilities, a vast majority of the Indian population is forced to turn to expensive private healthcare providers, as confirmed by the IMS Institute in its above report..

Suggested framework for a comprehensive view of healthcare access:

The same June 2013 report of IMS Institute states that healthcare access has varying meaning in different countries, especially across developing and developed economies. In the developed economies, it is often equated to the access status of healthcare insurance, whereas in the developing economies, it is viewed primarily across two dimensions: the physical reach of a healthcare facility, and affordability to the patient.

Thus, it is important to build a framework that would provide a comprehensive view to healthcare access. The framework should be able to define healthcare access in the Indian context, aided by other parameters that are key in ensuring quality treatment to a patient.

The framework also allows understanding of each component of healthcare access separately, including inter-dependencies.

According to IMS Institute, healthcare access has 4 key dimensions as follows:

Physical Reach:

This component defines physical accessibility of a requisite healthcare facility, i.e. availability of a healthcare facility having an out-patient department (OPD) for common ailments, and an in-patient department (IPD) for hospitalization. These facilities may either be public or private in nature. Physical reach is defined as the ability to enter a healthcare facility within 5 kilometers (5km) from the place of residence or work.

Availability/Capacity:

This component defines availability of the requisite healthcare resources to provide patient treatment, i.e. doctors, nurses, in-patient beds, diagnostics, consumables, etc. The availability is governed by minimum specifications defined by the Government of India for public healthcare facilities, and international organizations such as W.H.O.

Quality/Functionality:

This component defines the quality of the healthcare resources available at the point of patient treatment.

Affordability:

This component defines the ability of a patient to afford complete treatment for the illness or disease.

Draft NHP 2015 – ‘Health is a fundamental right’:

Though the above parameters were not quite considered, as such, to define access to healthcare, the new government has done a good job with the draft NHP 2015, while updating NHP 2002. The new draft has evoked good interest among the stakeholders as healthcare has become very costly in India and continues to go north, steadily, as mentioned above.

The draft has covered lots of ground related to health, spanning across the change in the nature of the nation’s disease burden from communicable to non-communicable diseases, shortage of human resources in health sector and right up to the use of information and communication technology. It’s a hard fact that low investment in public health has been placing India consistently at the lower rungs of the development indices.

Against the backdrop of paltry public expenditure on health, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare through its draft National Health Policy, 2015 (NHP 2015) has proposed making health a fundamental right, similar to denial of health an offence.

The draft policy reiterates, “Many industrialized nations have laws that do so. Many of the developing nations that have made significant progress towards universal health coverage, such as Brazil and Thailand, have done so, and … such a law is a major contributory factor. A number of international covenants to which we [India] are joint signatories give us such a mandate – and this could be used to make a national law. Courts have also rulings that, in effect, see health care as a fundamental right — and a constitutional obligation flowing out of the right to life.”

The draft NHP 2015 even states, “The Centre shall enact, after due discussion and on the request of three or more states a National Health Rights Act, which will ensure health as a fundamental right, whose denial will be justiciable.”

The new draft policy acknowledges that primary healthcare of date covers not more than 20 per cent of the health needs and that a very high OoP health expenditure (over 61 percent on medicines) is pushing nearly 63 million people into poverty every year.

One of the key features of the new draft policy is an universal medical insurance scheme that will be virtually free for the poor and affordable for the rest. The government expects the stakeholders to send their comments and suggestions on the draft policy by February 28, 2014.

However, the draft NHP 2015 does not deliberate on some other important areas, such as specific time-bound commitments on public investments, insurance cover on outpatient treatments & care and appropriate regulations for the private sector to contain healthcare costs.

Cut on current year health budget raises may eyebrows:

In the midst of the prevailing lackluster public healthcare scenario, just in the last month (December 2014), the government has reportedly ordered a US$ 948 million (20 percent) cut in its 2014-15 healthcare budget due to fiscal constraints.

It is worth mentioning that at 0.9 percent of GDP, India’s public health expenditure is already among the lowest in the world, as compared to compared to 2.7 percent in China, 4.2 percent in brazil, 1.4 percent in Bangladesh, 1.6 percent in Sri Lanka, 2.9 percent in Thailand and 8.5 percent in the United States.

In addition to the healthcare budget, the finance ministry has reportedly also ordered a spending cut this year for India’s HIV/AIDS program by about 30 percent to US$ 205.4 million.

A report from Reuters, quoting one of the health ministry officials, stated that this budget cut could crimp efforts to control the spread of diseases. More newborns die in India than in poorer neighbors such as Bangladesh, and preventable illnesses such as diarrhea kill more than a million children every year.

Needs wings to fly:

The draft NHP 2015 has come thirteen years after the previous NHP 2002 and following a 20 percent cut even on the paltry budgetary allocation on public health of this financial year. Thus, many skeptics ponder whether this well drafted NHP 2015, pregnant with many great promises, would ever see the light of the day.

The skepticism gets further reinforced, when the draft NHP 2015 says that to achieve its objectives the budgetary allocation on health would be increased to 2.5 percent of the GDP. The Government proposes to rely mostly on general taxation, besides creating a health cess similar to that of education cess, for effective implementation of this health policy. The draft indicates that 40 percent of this budget would come from central expenditure.

A quick reading of the following text from the Reuter’s report makes the scenario even more intriguing:

“The retrenchment (budget cut) could also derail an ambitious universal healthcare program that Modi wants to launch in April. The plan aims to provide all citizens with free drugs and diagnostic treatments, as well as insurance benefits.

The cost of that program over the next four years had been estimated at 1.6 trillion rupees (US$ 25 billion). The health ministry officials had been expecting a jump in their budget for the coming year, in part to pay for this extra cost.

‘Even next year we don’t think we’ll get a huge amount of money,’ said one official, adding that it was now unclear how the new program would be funded.”

Thus, the key point to ponder now: Would the NHP 2015 have wings to fly?

Is India just producing various documents on health without action?

Not too long ago, in October 2010, the Government of India constituted a ‘High Level Expert Group (HLEG)’ on Universal Health Coverage (UHC) under the chairmanship of the well-known international medical expert Prof. K. Srinath Reddy. The HLEG was mandated to develop a framework for providing easily accessible and affordable health care to all Indians.

The HLEG Report defined UHC as follows:

“Ensuring equitable access for all Indian citizens, resident in any part of the country, regardless of income level, social status, gender, caste or religion, to affordable, accountable, appropriate health services of assured quality (promotive, preventive, curative and rehabilitative) as well as public health services addressing the wider determinants of health delivered to individuals and populations, with the government being the guarantor and enabler, although not necessarily the only provider, of health and related services”.

I discussed this subject in my blog post of December 12, 2011, titled “Health being a basic human right, the proposal for Universal Health Coverage augurs well for India”

Most probably, this excellent HLEG report on UHC has already become an archival material for the posterity to refer, if and when required.

Interestingly, despite governments of different political dispensation ruling the country since 1983, the key goal of the NHP 1983 to ‘provide healthcare to all by the year 2000’ continues to haunt us over the last three decades.

Public healthcare infrastructure, especially in rural India, still remains grossly inadequate.

In most of the villages in India, primary health facilities, if available, (except in some progressive states), continue to be shoddy, fragile and is gasping for breath, as it were. Recent examples of Bilaspur (Chhattisgarh) sterilization tragedy in November 2014, when 15 women died or the incident of last week in Chatra district of Jharkhand, where about 40 women allegedly underwent sterilization under torchlight, would vindicate this point.

Much hyped program of “free essential drugs for all, from the government hospitals” has not been universally implemented, just yet…again due to financial resource constraints and paucity of other wherewithal.

Conclusion:

Currently, none of the newer constitutional rights, such as right to food, education and employment, enacted by the lawmakers for the well being of the concerned people of the country, is functioning as desired for various financial and administrative reasons. Even making adequate budgetary provisions for all these projects continue to pose a great challenge, both for the central and the state Governments.

Overall, NHP 2015 is a well-drafted and comprehensive policy document. It analyses the successes and failures of the past quite well, with a proposal of making health as a fundamental right. However, the status and experience with the other fundamental right-based legislations in India, do not fuel much optimism in this critical area, at least, as of now.

Consequently, the draft NHP 2015 does not appear to be more than a lucid narration of good intents, just what the NHP 1983 and 2002 did. Next month’s Union budget allocation for the financial year 2015-16 for health, calculated as a percentage of India’s GDP, would hopefully bring more clarity in this area.

Additionally, other important areas such as, specific time-bound commitments on public investments for health; extensions of medical insurance cover to even outpatient treatments & care and appropriate regulations for the private sector to contain healthcare expenditure, are worth considering in the NHP 2015.

Shorn of all these, would the National Health Policy 2015 have its wings to fly?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Pharma Outlook 2015: A Glimpse Of Some Drivers and Barriers

Posted on January 5, 2015 by Tapan Ray

Looking ahead, the brand new year 2015 appears quite interesting to me both from the global and also from the local pharmaceutical industry perspective. In this article I shall try to give a glimpse of some of the important drivers and barriers for success of the industry as the year unfolds, based on recent and ongoing developments.

Let me start with the global outlook of 2015, where in the midst of all gloom and doom of the past years, I notice formation of a distinct and new silver lining, mainly due to the following two reasons:

1. Record number of new drugs approval in 2014 spanning across10 therapy areas:

As indicated in its website, USFDA has approved 41 novel medicines in 2014, which is 14 more than the previous year and is the second highest after 1996 that witnessed 53 approvals. Many of these new drugs are with blockbuster potential.

According to another report, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has also recommended 82 new medicines in 2014, which though includes generic drugs in its list. However, this number too shows an increase from 79 in 2013 and 57 in 2012.

According to January 02, 2014 report from Forbes, very interestingly, infectious diseases dominated with 12 approvals (27 percent), cancer with 8 approvals (18 percent), followed by rare diseases with 5 (11 percent). Just two of these new approvals are for Hepatitis treatment and the rest are for bacterial, fungal, viral, and parasitic infections.

AstraZeneca received the highest number of 4 approvals followed by Eli Lilly with 3.

2. Patent expired blockbuster drugs in 2015 would have low generic impact:

Though drugs worth sales turnover of US$ 44 billion would go off patent in 2015, patent expiries will have minimal impact on the top line as 2015 sales will grow close to four times that of patent losses. Following are the top 10 drugs among those:

No.	Brand	Company	Disease	Sales2013 (US$ Bn)	Patent Expiry
1.	Lantus	Sanofi	Diabetes	7.9	Feb 2015
2.	Abilify	Otsuka/Bristol-Myers Squibb	Schizophrenia/ Other neurological conditions	7.8	April 2015
3.	Copaxone	Teva	Multiple sclerosis	4.33	Sept 2015
4.	Neulasta	Amgen	Infection reduction in cancer patients on chemotherapy	4.4	Oct 2015
5.	Tracleer	Actelion	Pulmonary arterial hypertension	1.57	Nov 2015
6.	Namenda	Actavis	Alzheimer’s disease	1.5	April 2015
7.	Avodart/Jalyn	GSK	Benign prostatic hypertrophy	1.34	Nov 2015
8.	Zyvox	Pfizer	Gram-positive bacterial infections	1.35	May 2015
9.	AndroGel	Abbvie	Low testosterone	1.03	Early 2015
10.	Synagis	AstraZeneca	Monoclonal antibody to prevent respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants	1.1	Oct 2015

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

As a significant number of these drugs are biologics, such as Lantus, Abilify, Neulasta and Synagis, the generic impact on those large brands, post patent expiry, would be minimal, at least, for several more years.

However, Lantus sales could soon be impacted, as its biosimilar versions from Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly have already received approval in Europe, and may be launched in the United States, as well.

Biosimilar versions of other drugs that will go off patent in 2015, do not seem to be anywhere near launch soon to make immediate dent in the sales of the original biologics. I had deliberated on various possible reasons for delay in biosimilar entry, especially in the US, in my earlier blog post of August 25, 2014, titled “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns”

Taking all these into consideration, EvaluatePharma has estimated that out of patent expiry related sales turnover of US$44 billion, just around US $16 billion would get impacted in 2015 by their generic equivalents.

Global market outlook 2015:

According to IMS Health, spending on medicines will reach nearly $1,100 billion in 2015 with a growth rate of 3-6 percent over the last five-year period.

According to EvaluatePharma, the overall outlook of the global pharma industry in 2015 and beyond is expected to be as follows:

A dozen products launched in 2015 are forecast to achieve blockbuster sales by 2020

Drugs treating high cholesterol and heart failure will dominate the field with a combined 2020 sales forecast of US$8 billion

Sovaldi and its combination product Harvoni will take the number one worldwide seller spot with forecasted sales of $15.3 billion in 2015

Patent expiries will have minimal impact on the top line as 2015 sales will grow close to four times that of patent losses

Financing climate appears friendly and deals will continue at a steady pace but M&A activity unlikely to match the frenzy of 2014

Moreover, Oncology therapy area brings a huge promise with novel immuno-oncology drugs. As Reuters have reported, Merck & Co’s Keytruda and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo, which work by blocking a protein called Programmed Death receptor (PD-1), are the first in a coming wave of immuno-therapies that analysts believe could generate annual sales of more than US$30 billion a year.

Indian pharma industry outlook 2015:

Indian pharmaceutical industry, dominated by branded generic drugs, is estimated to register a turnover of around US$ 33.8 billion with an average growth of 10.3 percent in 2014 – 2018 period, according to Deloitte. Increasing number of diagnosis and treatment of chronic ailments, fuelled by ascending trend in the per capita income, would be the key factors to drive this double-digit growth rate.

In 2013-14, pharma exports of the country with a turnover of US$ 14.84 billion grew at a meager 1.2 percent, which is the slowest growth in nearly the last 15 years. Pharmexcil attributed its reason to USFDA related regulatory issues and increasing global competition. India still stands exposed in this area, unless meaningful corrective measures are taken forthwith. It is worth noting, although India exports drugs to over 200 countries in the world, the United States (US) alone accounts for about 25 percent of India’s pharma exports.

Key issues and challenges in ‘The Exports Front’:

Generic drugs currently contribute over 80 percent of prescriptions written in the US. Around 40 percent of prescriptions and Over The Counter (OTC) drugs that are sold there, come from India and account for around 10 per cent of finished dosages in the US.

Almost all of these are cheaper generic versions of patent expired drugs, which are mainly produced in around 200 USFDA approved drug-manufacturing facilities located in India. Hence, India’s commercial stake in this space is indeed mind-boggling.

Indian drug exports were taking place satisfactorily without any major regulatory hitches since quite some time. Unfortunately, over the last few years, mostly the Federal Drug Administration of the US (USFDA) and the United Kingdom (UK)’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) have started raising serious doubts on the quality of medicines manufactured in India, creating an uncertainty on drug exports in those countries.

To overcome this critical issue and keep marching ahead with distinction in the drug exports front, Indian pharma would require to successfully dealing with the following two areas:

A. Data integrity:

Since quite a while, USFDA has been raising serious concerns on ‘Data Integrity’ in their previously approved production facilities of a large number of Indian pharma players. The details of each of these concerns are available in the USFDA website.

This worrying development is now posing a huge threat to future growth potential of Indian drug exports, as in this area the Indian government had set an objective, in its strategy document, to register a turnover of US$ 25 billion in 2014-15. In all probability, it would fall far short of this target at the end of this fiscal, predominantly for related reasons. However, the good news is, considering the criticality of the situation, the Indian government is now working with the USFDA to resolve this problem.

I discussed a part of this area in my Blog Post of September 29, 2014 titled “Make in India…Sell Any Where in The World”: An Indian Pharma Perspective

B. Credibility of Clinical Trial Data from India:

Credibility of ‘Clinical Trial Data’ generated by the domestic players in India, has also become a cause of great concern, as the regulators in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg suspended marketing approval for 25 drugs over the genuineness of clinical trial data from India’s GVK Biosciences.

Key issues and challenges in ‘The Domestic Front’:

Though 2015 would also witness the following important issues and challenges, meeting with this challenge of change should not be difficult with a proper mindset and right strategies:

A. The Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013):

Change in the mechanism of drug price control from earlier ‘cost based’ to newer ‘market based’ one and the specified provisions to neutralize inflationary impact of the input costs on the bottom line, based on the WPI, have already been considered as welcoming changes for the industry. As a result, despite implementation of the DPCO 2013, the pharma shares continued to do well in 2014 despite doomsayers’ predicaments, not just in the past, but even today.

I believe, the DPCO 2013 would not cause any significant negative impact further in 2015 on the performance of pharma companies, as the price controlled drugs would in all probability continue to be around 20 percent of the total pharma market. Moreover, now annual price increases are linked to the WPI for the controlled products and the companies can increase prices of remaining 80 percent of decontrolled products, upto 10 percent every year, irrespective of inflationary trend.

That said, due to huge inter-brand price differences, in July 2014 the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) had brought under price control 50 more cardiovascular and anti-diabetic drugs in addition to 348 drugs that featured under price control in the DPCO 2013.

If the pharma players do not take note of such abnormal inter-brand price variation of the same drugs without meaningful reasons, there could possibly be further move by the NPPA in this direction.

Additionally, any mechanism for patented products’ pricing, if announced in 2015, would have far-reaching impact, especially on the MNCs marketing such drugs.

B. Unethical practices in Clinical trial:

In the Clinical Trial arena of India, responding to a Public Interest Litigation (PIL), the Supreme Court of the country and separately the Parliamentary Standing Committee had indicted the drug regulator and charted out some action areas. The Parliamentary Committee in its report had even mentioned about a nexus existing between the drug regulator and the industry in this area.

Driven by the directives of the Apex Court of the country, the union ministry of health of the government of India has already strengthened some areas of past laxity in drug regulatory control, such as mandatory registration of clinical trials, constitution of committees to oversee the trial approval, its execution and above all ethical treatment of patients, including compensation.

Although, these are all requisite measures to create an appropriate longer-term eco-system for clinical trials in India, it has reportedly ruffled many feathers, such as CROs in the country who work mainly for pharma MNCs and some global pharma players too. This is mainly because of inordinate delays in drug approvals during the regulatory rectification process, besides cost of clinical trials going up. An orderly drug regulatory environment must prevail, instead of allegedly ‘free for all’ clinical trial environment in the country, costing many innocent lives and livelihoods. Responding to this changing clinical trial environment, some MNCs have already articulated that they are reconsidering their drug trial strategy in India and some Indian players, possibly with vested interests and echoing similar sentiments, are also saying that they would shift their clinical trial projects out of India, which would adversely impact the country’s clinical trial industry.

Be that as it may, it appears now that under the directive of the Supreme Court of the country, the decisions taken by the government in clinical trial area are irreversible, for the long-term interest of the country.

C. Intellectual Property (IP) issues:

Reacting to some well-justified measures taken by India in the IP area to make healthcare affordable to all, the US and its some key allies, continuously pressured by their powerful pharma lobby groups, continue to push India hard to broaden the IP protections. ‘Big Pharma’ lobbyists are reportedly trying to compel India to amend its IP laws that would suit their business interest at the cost of patients.

Fortunately, many stakeholders, including media, have started raising their voices against such strong-arm tactics, further fueling the credibility erosion of ‘Big Pharma’ and creating important pressure groups for the government.

Simultaneously, concerned pharma MNCs are also seeking legal recourse over issues mainly related to the section (3d) and Compulsory Licensing of the Indian Patents Act. However, most of the judicial verdicts vindicate the quality of decisions taken by the Indian Patent Office (IPO) in these areas.

Though very unlikely, any amendment or tweaking of the existing patent laws of India in 2015 would provide an unfair advantage to MNCs with negative impact on public health interest.

D. Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices:

Compared to the actions that are now being taken by the law enforcers overseas against pharmaceutical marketing malpractices, India has been showing a rather lackadaisical attitude in these areas, until recently. It astonishes many that unlike even China; no pharmaceutical company has been investigated thoroughly and hauled up by the government for alleged bribery and other serious allegations of corrupt practices.

However, frequent reporting by the Indian media had triggered a debate in the country on the subject. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) on this subject is now pending before the Supreme Court for hearing in the near future. It is worth noting that in 2010, ‘The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Health’ also had expressed its deep concern by stating that the “evil practice” of inducement of doctors by the pharma companies is continuing unabated as the revised guidelines of the Medical Council of India (MCI) have no jurisdiction over the pharma industry.

The Government, until recently, has shown no active interest in this area either, though the new Union Health Minister, J.P. Nadda decried the unethical nexus between the doctors and pharma companies, amounting violations of medical ethics in the country. He reportedly has stated that in majority of the cases, the pharma companies are luring the doctors by giving gifts and other benefits for prescribing the brand of medicines of their choice to the patients.

As the saying goes, ‘better late than never’, on December 12, 2014, the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) of the Government of India announced details of the ‘Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCPMP)’, which would be effective across the country from January 1, 2015 for all pharma players to implement, across India.

However, I reckon, the document in its current form is rather weak in its effective implementation potential. Meaningful and transparent deterrent measures to uphold public health interest are also lacking. The entire process also deserves a well-structured monitoring mechanism and digital implementation tools that can be operated with military precision. I discussed this issue in my Blog Post of December 29, 2014, titled “India’s Pharma Marketing Code (UCPMP): Is It Crafted Well Enough To Deliver The Deliverables?”

On UCPMP a survey done by E&Y has highlighted the following points, besides other areas:

More than 50 percent of the respondents are of the opinion that the UCPMP may lead to manipulation in recording of actual sampling activity.

Over 50 percent of the respondents indicated that the effectiveness of the code would be very low in the absence of legislative support provided to the UCPMP committee.

90 percent of the respondents felt that pharma companies in India should focus on building a robust internal controls system to ensure compliance with the UCPMP.

In my view as well, the self-regulatory measures prescribed in the UCPMP of the DoP are unlikely to make any significant impact in 2015, unless pharma companies start focusing on building robust internal controls system to ensure compliance with the UCPMP.

Conclusion:

I would now put on the balance of probabilities, the new ‘Silver Linings’ of the Global pharmaceutical industry as discussed above, the issues and challenges of 2015 for the Indian pharma and also other important factors that I have not been able to discuss in this article. The overall emerging picture depicts that the pharma industry, both global and local, would fare much better than what it did in the recent past, provided the industry, as a whole, does not continue to ignore the storm signals outright.

Thus, based on the available data, the year 2015, as appears to me, would provide an enormous opportunity with promises of an interesting time ahead that the pharmaceutical industry should try to leverage on…and then cherish it for a long while…most probably as a turning point of the same ball game with different success requirements.

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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