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A Rare Strategic Acrobatic Feat in Covid Time

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‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills.’ Quite a while ago, all-time global management guru – Peter Drucker used this essential acrobatic feat as an example, for the business strategists. This illustration signifies the criticality of harmonizing decisions affecting both the short and the long-term goals of an organization, for a sustainable business excellence.

In most recent times, the pharma major AstraZeneca that has virtually become one of the household names, for developing a Covid-19 vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford, has performed the above acrobatic feat – with precision. During the prevailing unprecedented health crisis, the Company has unequivocally proven that it remains on course – in achieving its dual objectives, as Drucker had prescribed in his management classic – ‘The Practice of Management.’

It happened in tandem – without getting overwhelmed by the disruptive forced of Covid pandemic, unlike most others. Immediately, the Company focused on an urgent objective of saving the humanity – by developing, manufacturing and delivering a Covid vaccine to the world, in a record time. This was possibly a relatively short-term goal. And closely followed the other – a critical strategic decision for the organization’s long-term sustainable business excellence.

I have discussed before, the Company’s first initiative – developing a Covid vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford. Hence, in this article, I shall focus on two other related areas:

  • Deadly impact of rare diseases in some Covid infected young patients.
  • Why not some large Indian companies also explore similar strategies as demonstrated by AstraZeneca – and the reasons behind the same?

Before going into those areas up front, let me start with a brief description of AstraZeneca’s intent to expand its footprint in the of area of rare diseases, besides immunology area to help treat rare types of cancer.

The acquisition:

On December 12, 2020 AstraZeneca announced that to accelerate its strategic and financial development, the company will acquire Alexion valuing $39 billion. Subject to all statutory approvals, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2021. Interestingly, Alexion’s top brand – Soliris, is the world’s one of the most expensive drugs in the world. It is prescribed to treat a rare – life-threatening blood disease paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). Incidentally, rare diseases have also some significant relevance for Covid infected patients. Let me now recapitulate, some key aspects of rare diseases.

Some key aspects of rare diseases: 

Rare Diseases (RD) – also referred to as Orphan Disease (OD), are diseases affecting a small percentage of the population, and include genetic diseases, rare cancers, infectious tropical diseases and degenerative diseases. There is no universally accepted definition of a rare disease, yet. Different countries define these differently. However, the common considerations in the definitions are, primarily, disease prevalence and to a varying extent – severity and existence of alternative therapeutic options.

Impact of some rare diseases in Covid infected patients: 

Since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, people with underlying diseases, such as, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney disorders, are considered to fall in the high-risk group. They are more likely to have severe disease and complications and need to be extra cautious of the infection. Importantly, it has been recently reported that some rare diseases also increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic at a younger age.

For example, as reported on December 07, 2020, recent studies indicate, rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic for younger patients. The researchers also found that women with rare autoimmune rheumatological diseases (RAIRD) had a greater increase in all-cause mortality rates during the pandemic when compared to men with RAIRD. However, there seems to be an India specific issue also in this situation, as well.

India specific issue for Covid infected patients with some rare diseases:

Some India specific issues on RD, could have a significant adverse impact on Covid infected patients in the country. One such critical issues is the ‘Baseline Knowledge of Rare Diseases in India.’ This fact was well captured in an important survey that was published with the same name, as an original article, in the ‘International Journal of Rare Diseases & Disorders,’ on November 06, 2019.

The study noted, among others:

  • Although, rare diseases have recently received worldwide attention, the developing countries are seriously behind in regard to awareness, drug development, diagnosis, and social services, in this area. India, which has one-third of the world’s rare disease population, has no accurate assessment of the problem.
  • The drugs for ‘Rare Diseases (RD), also called Orphan Drugs (OD)’, often cost exorbitant with difficulties in diagnosis and treatments.
  • Indian policymakers want to find out the number of RD and the extent of the population suffering from them and help provide treatment for them, which is a challenging task with 1.45% GDP health care budget for 1.3 billion people.
  • The health care professionals appear to have some awareness as compared with non-healthcare professionals, but even among health care professionals, only one third had a rudimentary understanding of RD and OD, whereas three-fourths have virtually no knowledge of RD.
  • Forty-three percent of health professionals had not seen rare disease patients, and a large percent of practicing physicians had not seen even one rare disease patient in their entire professional practice.

Thus, it is clear from this survey that the most important issues are awareness and diagnosis, as many rare diseases are not diagnosed or possibly misdiagnosed. Besides, the survey also observed, since 1983, many global companies started developing orphan drugs after the Orphan Drug Act implementation. There is none at this time in India, although in 2017, the Drugs & Cosmetic Act. 1945 has been amended to include “rare diseases and orphan drugs”.

The National Policy on Rare Diseases flagged some of these facts:

The ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020,’ for India, released by the Union Ministry of Health on February 07, 2020, acknowledged many of these important facts. It also said, ‘Considering the limited data available on rare diseases, and in the light of competing health priorities, the focus of the draft policy is on prevention of rare diseases as a priority as identified by experts.’

Interestingly, the first of such policy was prepared by India in 2017 and a committee was appointed to review it in 2028. However, recently published the National Policy on Rare diseases, has also noted one more important point. It noted: ‘Paradoxically, though rare diseases are of low prevalence and individually rare, collectively they affect a considerable proportion of the population in any country, which according to generally accepted international research is – between 6% and 8%.’ Currently, India, reportedly, doesn’t have any registry of rare disease, which has now been entrusted to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in the National policy.

Common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis:

The above policy has also noted, rare diseases are characterized by a wide diversity of signs and symptoms that not only, reportedly, vary from disease to disease, but also from patient-to-patient suffering from the same disease. Importantly, relatively common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis.

During Covid treatment, similar circumstances could lead to a serious life-threatening situation. The 2020 RD Policy also reiterates: “Early diagnosis of rare diseases is a challenge owing to multiple factors that include lack of awareness among primary care physicians, lack of adequate screening and diagnostic facilities etc.” That said, yet another key question arises – will developing and marketing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

Will developing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

It is worth noting that the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020, aims more at lowering the incidence and prevalence of rare diseases based on an integrated and comprehensive prevention strategy, rather than ensuring patient access to affordable treatments. Nonetheless, it also says, within the constraints on resources and competing health care priorities, India will try to enable access to affordable health care to patients of rare diseases which are amenable to one-time treatment. In general, the policy suggests, ‘voluntary crowdfunding for treatment’ of rare diseases.

With this being the prevailing situation in India, even during Covid pandemic, an interesting article – ‘How Orphan Drugs Became a Highly Profitable Industry,’ published in The Scientist, noted some important facts in this area. It highlighted: ‘Government incentives, advances in technology, and an army of patient advocates have spun a successful market—but abuses of the system and exorbitant prices could cause a backlash.’

It also articulated, despite higher costs and less-certain returns, investments in drug development on the rare diseases side appear to ‘be bucking the trend.’ The result of the global focus on RD nowadays is: ‘Firms with marketing authorization for orphan products, are now more profitable than those without.’

This also partly explains the financial rationale behind AstraZeneca’s recent acquisition of Alexion Pharmaceuticals, valuing $39 billion.

Conclusion: 

As of December 20, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,031,659 of new Coronavirus cases with 145,513 deaths. The country has already crossed 10 million in Covid cases as the vaccine approval remains pending. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection continues to loom large in many states. Meanwhile, many studies indicate that comorbidity should now include rare diseases, as well, especially to prevent deaths in younger patients. From this perspective effective diagnosis and treatment of RD are also coming under spotlights. Curiously, the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020 focuses more on awareness and prevention of RD rather than access to affordable treatment, particularly in Covid infected patients to save precious younger lives. As I wrote previously and still believe, the ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases’ becomes more meaningful with ‘Orphan Drugs Act.’

Vaccines to prevent Covid infections are also expected to get emergency approval in India, shortly. At lease, some of these being available at affordable prices, including AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, according to reports. As recent reports indicate the same company, is also entering into RD therapy areas, through a key acquisition, yet another hope looms large. A hope for availability of relevant RD drugs at an affordable price for Covid infected patients, despite other apprehension, as I wrote before.

That apart, purely from the business management perspective, as well, this rare strategic acrobatic feat of AstraZeneca - ‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills,’ during the Covid crisis, I reckon, is exemplary for the practicing managers.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

The Challenge of Holistic Value Creation With Pharma M&A

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Two mega deals, right at the dawn of 2019 gave a flying start to Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activities, in search of inorganic growth, by some large pharma companies. The two biggest ones are Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMS) USD 74 billion buyout of Celgene, and AbbVie’s USD 63 billion purchase of Allergan, as announced on January 03, 2019 and June 25, 2019, respectively. However, overall in the second quarter of 2019, there were, reportedly, only 22 deals – ‘the smallest quarterly deal count for at least a decade.’

As a strategic option for greater value creation to drive growth, M&A is being actively considered over a long period of time. The key focus of such value creation for the company remains primarily on enriching the pipeline of New Chemical or Molecular Entities (NCE/NME) for revenue synergy, besides cost synergy. This is understandable. But, for various reasons, alongside, a key question also comes up for debate – is the core purpose of such value creation to drive companies’ growth, primarily with more number new drugs, sustainable? The query assumes greater relevance in the evolving new paradigm. This is because, a basic shift is taking place in the core organizational purpose of value creation.

Thus, it appears, the nature of value creation through M&A would also matter as much. Can it still remain a drug company’s financial health centric, any longer? Should the M&A initiatives also not take under their wings, the value-offerings expected by patients from a drug company – beyond innovative pills? Would a holistic value creation through M&A would now be the name of the game? If so, how?  The discussion of my today’s article will revolve around these questions. Let me initiate the deliberation by recapitulating the key motivation behind M&A initiatives of the drug industry.

A key motivation behind the M&A initiatives in the drug industry:

While recapitulating one of the key motivations behind pharma M&As, let me refer to some interesting and recent studies, such as, the 2019 paper of McKinsey titled, ‘What’s behind the pharmaceutical sector’s M&A push.’ It also acknowledges, the use of M&A to bolster drug innovation is unlikely to change any time soon.

That many drug companies actively pursue the M&A option as a game changer for inorganic growth, is vindicated by the recent big deals, as quoted above. Since early 2000 and before, the companies that made the biggest deals to create new value synergies with, have been paying heavy deal premium to enrich their new product pipelines. Quite often it includes several new and emerging classes of drugs, as acquisition targets.

This also gets corroborated in the Press Release of the 2019 BMS deal, which says: ‘The transaction will create a leading focused specialty biopharma company well positioned to address the needs of patients with cancer, inflammatory and immunologic disease and cardiovascular disease through high-value innovative medicines and leading scientific capabilities.’

Lesser yield of traditional pharma M&A than the broader market:

This was emphasized in the June 06, 2019 article, published in The Washington Post, titled ‘Big Pharma Has to Bet Big on M&A. Investors Don’t.’ The analysis found, the returns from the big pharma deals ‘don’t look as good compared to the broader market’, although for very patient investors many of these have resulted in longer-term gains. To illustrate this point, the paper pointed out: ‘Of the eight biopharma deals worth more than USD 40 billion that closed in the last 20 years, only one delivered better returns than the S&P 500 five years after it closed.’

Naming Merck & Co..’s USD 47 billion acquisition of Schering-Plough Corp. in 2009, the researcher justified: ‘That deal is arguably something of an accidental winner. Long-term success didn’t come from any of the products that Merck targeted in the merger; instead, an afterthought of an antibody that was initially set to be sold off became Keytruda, a cancer drug that’s projected to generate USD 15 billion in sales in 2021.’

Innovative product launches no longer a holistic value-creation for patients: 

Thus, unlike yesteryears, enriching new and innovative product pipeline through M&A won’t serve the key purpose of value-creation for patients to treat deadly diseases in a holistic way. The primary reason for the same was articulated in the Deloitte Paper titled, ‘Disruptive M&A: Are you ready to define your future?’ The article emphasized: ‘The confluence of technological change, shifting customer preferences, and convergence across sectors is redesigning how products and services are developed, delivered, and consumed.’

Thus, mere acquisitions of innovative product portfolios, intended to provide better treatment choices for patients, may not meet the holistic needs of consumers’ while going through the disease treatment process. In depth understanding of such preferences with all associated nuances, is absolutely essential in today’s complex business scenario. Which is why, it calls for avant-garde type or ‘disruptive M&As’, that can help alter the business growth trajectories, making the disrupted company disrupt the competitive space, being game changers of the industry.

Calls for avant-garde type or disruptive pharma M&As:

Today, it’s crucial for any drug company to create a unique treatment experience for patients. This is emerging as a pivotal factor for the success of a brand.

Even most innovative products will need to be supported by disruptive back-office technology for market success. Thus, acquisition of disruptive technology to effectively augment the brand value delivery process is equally important, in tandem with enrichment of new product pipeline. This is expected to emerge as a critical driver in pharma M&A. Such takeovers, I reckon, may be termed as avant-garde type or disruptive M&As – for holistic value creation for patients.

‘Disruptive M&A’ creates a much broader range of possibilities and targets:

For a holistic value creation through disruptive M&A focus for target selection needs to be significantly different from the standard models of M&As – and not just about the quality of NCE and NME pipeline. The above paper also highlighted: ‘Disruptive M&A opportunities requires evaluating and assessing a much broader range of possibilities and targets than traditional M&A.’

With the right kind of target selection after a thorough analysis of the business model, disruptive M&A may help the acquiring drug companies to go beyond achieving revenue and cost synergies. It can also provide cutting-edge business capabilities, alongside enriching and expanding the talent pool, key business processes, and, of course, the state-of-the-art technology –inorganically.

Initiatives and focus of drug companies of this genre, are expected to be more in the coming years, primarily driven by a new type of value creation to offer a unique disease treatment experience for patients with their respective brands.

A new type of value creation for patients in healthcare space:

It has already started happening in the recent years. For example, Amazon, on January 30, 2018 , announced, it is collaborating with Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, and the bank JP Morgan Chase to create an independent, nonprofit health care company ‘with the goal of increasing user satisfaction and reducing costs.’ They also announced the organizational focus on two of the following areas, which are interesting and unconventional:

  • Technology solutions that will provide U.S. employees and their families simplified, high-quality and transparent healthcare at a reasonable cost.
  • Draw on their combined capabilities and resources to take a fresh approach.

As the New York Time (NYT) reported: ‘The alliance was a sign of just how frustrated American businesses are with the state of the nation’s health care system and the rapidly spiraling cost of medical treatment.’ The report further added: ‘It also caused further turmoil in an industry reeling from attempts by new players to attack a notoriously inefficient, intractable web of doctors, hospitals, insurers and pharmaceutical companies.’

Although, this has happened in the United States, it sends a strong signal to the state of things to come sooner than expected in the health care space, dominated, so far, by pure pharma and biotech players, across the world.  New types of value creation for patients of similar nature, especially by tech greenhorns in the pharma space, can be wished away at one’s own peril.

Consumer-focused digital companies redefining healthcare value creation:

‘2019 EY M&A Firepower’ report also highlights the innovative efforts of consumer-focused, digital companies to carve out a solid niche for themselves in the pharma dominated health care space. With ‘effective deployment of their ‘connected devices, data analytics skills and deep consumer relationships, these new entrants are positioned to have access to important real-world data that could, in part or in full, determine future product utilization and payment,’ as the report emphasized.

Such fast-evolving development also prompt pharma players to act fast. And the most practical way of doing so, with a high possibility of success, is through disruptive M&A. Ongoing entry of consumer-focused, digital companies in health care increase the urgency for life sciences companies to act, now.

Conclusion:

Thus far, pharma and biotech companies have been engaged in a massive wealth creation for themselves by using their biological and chemical know-how for novel drugs and devices. This ballgame has to change now, ‘as the lines between health and technology continue to blur’, according to the EY Firepower report.

Capabilities of big data and analytics will increasingly be more essential for success, regardless of having a rich pipeline of NCEs and NMEs, even with the potential to achieve blockbuster status in the market. Thus, the ballgame has to change.

Against this backdrop, the key challenge of pharma players for a brighter tomorrow would undoubtedly be ‘holistic value creation.’ Its core purpose should be to deliver a unique patient experience, encompassing the entire disease treatment process – going beyond innovative drugs. One of the quickest routes to create this virtuous cycle, I reckon, is through ‘disruptive M&As – moving away from the traditional model for the same.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma’s Oncology Focus: Some Key Drivers With Pros And Cons For Patients

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Just in the first ten days of the brand-new year – 2019, three important oncology focused acquisitions were announced by three top global pharma companies.

On January 03, 2019, Bristol-Myers Squibb announced that it will acquire Celgene for a hefty sum of USD 74 billion to be a leading Biopharma player, focusing on high-value innovative medicines. As reported by BioSpace on January 04, 2019, the BMS CEO said, the combined might of the two pipelines will create “the number one oncology franchise” for both solid and hematologic tumors.

Just four days thereafter, on January 7, 2019, at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Eli Lilly announced that it will acquire targeted cancer drug maker Loxo Oncology for USD 8 billion. This deal gives the company TRK inhibitor Vitrakvi – the first drug approved by the FDA to target tumors based on genetic abnormality, rather than the location of the cancer.

On June 08 2019, at the same J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, GlaxoSmithKline CEO Emma Walmsley, reportedly said that GSK has agreed to acquire already approved PARP inhibitor Zejula as well as a range of pipeline assets valued USD 5 billion.It’s noteworthy that Walmsley announced the company’s new focus on oncology just the last year and has now almost doubled its immuno-oncology pipeline.

Even in the last year – 2018, a significant number of oncology focused Merger and Acquisitions (M&A) took place. The acquisition values are also interesting – ranging from a few-hundred million to billions of USD. In this article, I shall examine what could be the main drivers of this emerging trend with its pros and cons from the patients’ perspective, in general. As a brief backdrop, let me start with a few examples of such M&As in 2018.

Some oncology focused M&As in 2018:

Following are examples of some oncology focused acquisitions that took place in 2018:

  • In January 2018, Celgene Corporation, which has now been acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb, announced theacquisition of Juno Therapeutics for about USD 9 billion. This deal came shortly after Celgene’s deal for Impact Biomedicines valuing USD 1.1 billion.
  • In late-January 2018, the biggest deals this year were by Sanofi. It acquired Waltham, Massachusetts-based Bioverativ for about USD 11.6 billion. Bioverativ was a spinoff by Biogen. About a week later, Sanofi bought Ghent, Belgium-based Ablynx for USD 4.8 billion.
  • In April 2018, Roche completed its acquisition of Flatiron Health, an oncology-specific digital health company for about USD 1.9 billion.
  • In the same month of April 2018, Shire sold its oncology business to France’s Servier for USD 2.4 billion.
  • In May 2018,  Janssen Biotech, a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen Pharmaceuticals, announced that it was buying Rockville, Maryland-based BeneVir Biopharma, in a deal of more than USD 1 billion.

Thus, the question that follows: what could be the primary drivers of this trend?

The primary drivers:

In my view, the primary drivers for focus on the oncology segment by pharma and biotech companies is a combination of the following factors:

  • Leading cause of death: The incidence of cancer is fast increasing across the world, making it the leading cause of death, says 2018 report of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
  • High incidence: Cancer burden rose to 18.1 million new cases, with 9.6 million cancer deaths in 2018. IARC report further highlighted, one in 5 men and one in 6 women worldwide develop cancer during their lifetime, and one in 8 men and one in 11 women die from the disease.
  • The need for new treatment approaches is increasing: Various types of cancers are getting more and more complex.Genetic and epigenetic alterations in tumor cell populations are generating heritable variation, requiring new drugs along with novel treatment approaches.
  • High price: According to Journal of Oncology Practice, the average cancer drug price for approximately 1 year of therapy or a total treatment duration was less than USD 10,000 before 2000. This had increased to USD 30,000 to USD 50,000 by 2005. In 2012, twelve of thirteen new drugs approved for cancer indications were priced above USD 100,000 per year of therapy. For example, Keytruda (Merck) was launched in the US in 2014 at a price of reportedly USD 12,500 for each patient monthly or USD 150,000 annually. The drug is expected to be 30 percent cheaper in India than the global prices.
  • Longer product exclusivity period: As is often reported, many of the newer high-priced cancer drugs are for very specific types of cancer, with virtually no real competition. Consequently, they generally enjoy the benefits of a longer price exclusivity period, even after patent expiry. Humira of AbbVie is one such example.

The strategy is paying rich dividend to pharma players:

That this strategy continues paying rich dividend to concerned pharma players, gets reflected on the therapy group-wise performance of the global drug industry. Today, the global cancer therapeutics segment assumed mind-boggling size in value term. It was estimated at USD 121 billion in 2017 and projected to reach USD 172.6 billion by 2022. The top 10 oncology drugs accounted for revenue of USD 54.48 billion in 2017. Celgene, which has just been acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb, dominates the oncology market, with its best-selling product – Revlimid.

Successive launches of a large number of high-priced novel cancer drugs, has pushed the oncology segment in the top slot in therapy ranking. It is expected to remain this way, at least for some time, as June 2018 report of Evaluate Pharma forecasts that the oncology therapy area will maintain the top ranking in the 2017-2024 period.

IQVIA report on ‘Global Oncology Trends 2018’ ofMay 24, 2018 also reconfirms that the number of approved cancer therapies continues to rise, with 63 cancer drugs launching within the past five years.’ Illustrating the point further, the report highlights that global spending on cancer medicines keeps rising with therapeutic and supportive care use at USD133 billion globally in 2017, up from USD 96 billion in 2013.

Pros and Cons of this trend for patients:

Interestingly, this trend has both pros and cons for patients, almost in equal measure. Some of the important pros are, as follows:

  • Advancement of cancer treatments at an accelerated pace in recent years, is offering notable improvements in clinical benefit to patients, comments the above IQVIA report.
  • Consequently, cancer incidence and mortality have been declining with an increase in the survival rate, especially in the developed countries, such as the United States, in recent times.
  • Nevertheless, decreased incidence and improved survival rate have also been attributed to both – reductions in smoking, as well as advances in early detection and treatments.

Alongside, examples of some of major cons are also bothering many patients, such as:

  • The real benefits of newer and novel high-priced cancer drugs have not been felt by most people in the developing world, which constitutes the majority of the global population.
  • The GLOBOCAN 2018 database, accessible online as part of the IARC Global Cancer Observatory, also highlights that countries with lower Human Development Index (HDI) have a higher frequency of certain cancer types associated with poorer survival. This is mainly because access to timely diagnosis and effective treatment is less common.
  • Although, the new generation of treatment is transforming the field of cancer, yielding more cures and long-term remissions than ever before, the healthcare systems worldwide continue to struggle to deliver the benefits of these drugs to deserving patients.
  • As the above IQVIA report says, the list prices of new cancer drugs at launch have risen steadily over the past decade, and the median annual cost of a new cancer drug launched in 2017 exceeded USD 150,000, compared to USD 79,000 for the new cancer drugs launched in 2013.
  • If the affordability of drugs is not addressed soon, many people with cancer might not be able to reap the rewards of cutting-edge therapies.This concern was also expressed by Nature in an article titled, ‘Bringing down the cost of cancer treatment,’ published on March 07, 2018.

Thus,access to cancer treatment, mostly with modern cancer drugs, is becoming a major challenge in all countries, but much more acute in the developing nations. A special article titled, ‘Facing the Global Challenges of Access to Cancer Medication,’ published in the Journal of Global Oncology on March 28, 2018, also broached the question of affordability of modern anticancer medication and commented, “the financial challenge presented by the rising cost of care will create a barrier to its delivery.”

Conclusion:

On the above perspective, the emerging trend of large pharma and biotech companies’ focus on novel oncology drugs is an interesting one. The key drivers fueling this ascending trend are also understandable. However, a deep-stick analysis of pros and cons of its impact on patients indicate, it has helped patients in the developed world, significantly more than those in the developing world, with affordability being the primary issue.

The article titled, ‘Bringing down the cost of cancer treatment,’ published in Nature on March 07, 2018, also reconfirms the current situation eloquently. It asserted, there isn’t an iota of doubt that new generations of cancer drugs are transforming the field of cancer treatment, yielding long-term remissions and even cure – more than ever before. Nevertheless, while medicine’s ability to tackle tumors increases by manifold, patients and healthcare systems worldwide are struggling to deliver their benefits to most cancer patients.

To address this situation, some drug players did try out ‘tiered pricing’, while a few others announced – ‘patient assistance programs’. Unfortunately, none of these measures seem to have benefitted majority of deserving patients, materially. Thus, echoing the above article from Nature, I would emphasize, if the affordability issue of new cancer drugs is not effectively addressed soon, collectively by all stakeholders, a vast majority of cancer patient won’t be able to reap expected rewards from such cutting-edge therapies.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Drug Innovation and Pharma M&As: A Recent Perspective

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The 21st CEO Survey 2018 of PwC highlights a curious contradiction. This is based on what the Global Pharma Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) had articulated regarding their business outlook for 2018 and beyond. The report says: Despite highly publicized hand wringing over geopolitical uncertainty, corporate misbehavior, and the job-killing potential of artificial intelligence, the CEOs expressed surprising faith and optimism in the economic and business environment worldwide, at least over the next 12 months.

As the survey highlights, beyond 2018, CEO sentiment turns more cautious. They expressed more confidence in revenue growth prospects over the longer term than the immediate future. In the largest pharma market in the world – the United States (US), acquisitions appeared to be the core part of the 2018 growth playbook for the CEOs. More of them plan to drive growth with new Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) for this year. The US CEOs intent in this area came out to be more than their peers globally.

Thus, in this year we may expect to witness several M&A deals, at least by the pharma majors based in the US. As the saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, the success of any strategic M&A process should get clearly reflected in its revenue, profit and cost synergies over a period of time, consistently.

In this article, I shall try to look back, and attempt to fathom the net outcome of M&As in the pharma sector. Its key drivers for the global and Indian pharma players are somewhat different, though. In this piece, I shall focus on the M&A activities of the global companies, and my next article will focus on the Indian players in this area.

2018 – best start to a year of healthcare deal making:

The finding of the 21st CEO Survey 2018 that more global pharma CEOs plan to drive growth with new M&A for this year, has been reiterated in the January 22, 2018 issue of the Financial Times (FT). The article titled “Big Pharma makes strongest start to M&A for a decade” writes: “Healthcare companies have announced almost $30bn of acquisitions since the beginning of the year in the sector’s strongest start for deal making in more than a decade, as Big Pharma scrambles to replace ageing blockbusters by paying top dollar for new medicines.”

Big names involved and the reasons:

On February 18, 2018, an article published by the BSIC wrote, the M&A value in the healthcare sector recorded its strongest start to a year in more than a decade, excluding 2000, with almost USD32bn of global deals announced since the start of January 2018. Of these USD32bn, Sanofi SA and Celgene Corporation performed almost a combined USD26bn value of acquisitions for the American Bioverativ Inc. the cell therapy provider Juno Therapeutics, respectively.

As many would know, the FT also wrote in the above piece that Sanofi is trying to offset declining sales of its top-selling insulin – Lantus, which has lost market share following the introduction of cheaper biosimilar versions. Celgene is preparing for the loss of patent protection on its top cancer medicine, Revlimid, which will face generic competition from 2022 at the latest.

Is new drug innovation a key driver of M&A?

The core intent of M&A is undoubtedly creating greater value for all the stakeholders of the merged entity. Nevertheless, such value creation predominantly involving the following two goals, revolve around new drug innovation activities, as follows:

  • New value creation and risk minimization in R&D initiatives
  • Acquisition of blockbuster or potential blockbuster drugs to improve market share and market access, besides expanding the consumer base.

There could be a few other factors, as well, that may drive a pharma player to go for a similar buying spree, which we shall discuss later in this article.

However, in the international scenario, with gradually drying up of R&D pipeline, and the cost of drug innovation arguably exceeding well over USD 2 billion, many companies try to find easier access to a pipeline of new drug compounds, generally at the later stage of development, through M&A.

Thus, I reckon, one sees relatively higher number of big ticket M&As in the pharmaceutical industry than most other industrial sectors and that too, very often at a hefty price.

At a hefty price?

To give an example, the year 2018 has just begun and the pharma acquirers have agreed to pay an average premium of 81 percent – a number that is well above the 42 percent paid on average in 2017, according to Dealogic. The examples are the 63.78 percent bid premium paid by Sanofi SA on Bioverativ Inc. and the 78.46 percent premium paid by Celgene Corporation to acquire Juno Therapeutics.

A key reason of paying this kind of high premium, obviously indicate an intent of the acquirer to have a significant synergy in drug innovation activities of the merged company.

Do drug innovation activities rise, or decline post M&A?

A paper titled “Research: Innovation Suffers When Drug Companies Merge”, published by the Harvard Business Review (HBR) on August 03, 2016 answers this question. This research involves, pre and post M&A detailed analysis of 65 pharma companies. After detailed scrutiny of the data, the authors wrote: “Our results very clearly show that R&D and patenting within the merged entity decline substantially after a merger, compared to the same activity in both companies beforehand.”

Having also analyzed companies that were developing drugs in similar therapeutic areas, but hadn’t merged, the paper recorded: “We applied a market analysis, the same one used by the European Union in its models, to analyze how the rivals of the merging firms change their innovation activities afterward. On average, patenting and R&D expenditures of non-merging competitors also fell – by more than 20% – within four years after a merger. Therefore, pharmaceutical mergers seem to substantially reduce innovation activities in the relevant market as a whole.”

‘Other critical objectives’ may also drive pharma M&A:

As I had indicated before, besides attaining synergy in innovation activities at an optimum cost through M&A, there may also be other important drivers for a company to initiate this process. One such example is available from Sanofi-Aventis merger in 2004.

Just to recapitulate, Sanofi was formed in 2004 when Sanofi-Synthélabo (created from the 1999 merger of Sanofi and Synthélabo) acquired Aventis (the result of the 1999 merger of Hoechst and Rhône-Poulenc).

A June 2016 case study of the Sanofi-Aventis merger titled ‘Does M&A create value in the pharmaceutical sector?’, and published by HEC Paris – considered a leading academic institution in Europe and worldwide, brings out the ‘other factors’ driving pharma M&A.

The research paper says that Sanofi-Aventis deal ‘is the perfect example of the paramount importance that external factors have on M&A activity, which sometimes are more critical than the amount of value created from a particular deal.’ It further says, ‘facing a changing pharmaceutical industry (heightened competition and consolidation trend), Sanofi-Synthélabo decided to merge with Aventis as a defense strategy.’

This strategy ensured, even if the merger had not ended being a successful one, it would achieve the following two ‘other critical factors’:

  • Manage to save Sanofi-Synthélabo from being acquired and disappearing.
  • Comply with the French government pressure to create a national champion in the pharma industry, to ultimately benefit the French population.

Conclusion:

In the pharma business, M&A has now become a desirable strategic model for shareholder value creation. In the global perspective, one of the most important drivers for this initiative is, greater and less expensive access to new drug innovation or innovative new drugs, beside a few others, as discussed above.

In-depth expert analysis has also shown that “R&D and patenting within the merged entity decline substantially after a merger, compared to the same activity in both companies beforehand.”  Moreover, as other independent researchers have established that inside the merged companies, there’s a great deal of disruption in many areas, including people, besides the global drug market getting less competitive with declining number of players.

Pharma M&As may well be any stock market’s dream and could a boost the merged company’s performance in short to medium term. But the important points to ponder are:  Does it help improve drug innovation or its cost related issues over a reasonably long time-frame? Does it not ultimately invite even more problems of different nature, creating a vicious cycle, as it were, putting the sustainable performance of the company in a jeopardy?

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Key Drivers And Long-Term Impact of Pharma M&A in India

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Corporate M&A is increasingly considered an integral part of the organization’s growth strategy for value creation, by a large number of pharma companies, across the world. In tandem, it throws open many other doors of opportunities, such as reduction of business risks and massive corporate restructuring.

In the post globalization era, mostly the large to medium sized Indian players are imbibing this strategy to gain a competitive edge, in the highly crowded generic drug market, not just in India, but also in various other parts of the world. At the same time, it is equally true that there are many other pharma biggies who have moved into the top 10 of the domestic league table in India, following mainly the organic growth path, and are still staying that way.

For example, the league table ranking (MAT October 2017) of the Indian domestic pharma market, published by AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd, reflects a similar scenario. It shows, not many local Indian drug players seem to be too aggressive in Merger and Acquisition (M&A) within the country. In fact, among companies featuring in the TOP 10, only around half seems to have not gone for any major domestic M&A. The remaining half pursued a predominantly organic route, for a quantum growth in the Indian market.

In this article, I shall try to fathom, both the critical drivers and the long-term impact of pharma M&A initiatives – both inbound and outbound, with their either origin or destination being in India.

Are the key drivers different?

India is overwhelmingly a branded generic market. So are its key players. Thus, most pharma M&As in India are related to generic drugs.

Thus, unlike research-based global pharma players, where one of the most critical drivers for M&A, is related to new drug innovation to maintain sustained growth of the organization, the drivers for the same in India is somewhat different. Neither are these exactly the same for exports and the domestic market, with occasional overlaps in a few cases, though.

Export markets:

To expand and grow the pharma business in the export markets is obviously the main overall objectives. To attain this, the acquiring companies generally take into consideration some common critical factors, among others. Each of which is carefully assessed while going through the valuation process and arriving at the final deal price for the company to be acquired. A few examples of which are as follows:

  • The span and quality of market access and the future scope for value addition
  • Opportunities for value creation with available generic products, active ANDAs and DMFs
  • A competitive portfolio, especially covering specialty products, novel drug delivery systems and even off-patent biologic drugs
  • Market competitors’ profile
  • Product sourcing alternatives and other available assets

Domestic market:

Similarly, in the domestic market too, there could be several critical drivers. The following, may be cited just as an illustration. There could well be some overlaps here, as well, with those of export markets:

  • Moving up the pharma value chain, e.g., from bulk drug producer to formulation producer with marketing, intending to climb further up
  • A new range and type of the generic product portfolio
  • Expansion of therapeutic and geographic reach
  • Expansion of consumers and customers base
  • Greater reach, depth, efficiency and productivity of the distribution channel
  • Acquiring critical manufacturing and other related tangible and intangible assets

A glimpse at the 2016-17 M&A trend in India:

An E&Y paper titled, “Transactions 2017” says, India continues to enjoy a prominent position in the global generic pharma space, due to many preferred advantages available within the country, such as a large number of USFDA approved sites coupled with low Capex and operating costs. As a result, the pharmaceuticals sector witnessed 51 pharma deals in the year 2016, with an aggregate disclosed deal value of USD4.6 billion.

However, according to Grant Thornton Advisory Pvt. Ltd, there have been around 27 M&A deals in pharma and healthcare sector by Q3 2017, valued at USD719 million. This appears to be way below 54 deals, valued at USD4.7 billion in calendar year 2016.

Cross-border activity dominated the sector:

Highlighting that cross-border activity dominated the sector, the E&Y paper said, “outbound and domestic transactions drove most of the deal activity, with 21 deals each. In terms of the disclosed deal value, outbound and inbound activity stood at USD2.1 billion each. Domestic deal-making was concentrated in smaller value bands with an aggregate deal value of USD342 million, of which USD272 million (4 deals) worth of deals were restructuring deals.”

Inbound and a domestic M&A occupied the center stage:

It is interesting to note that despite initial hiccups, inbound overseas interest in sterile injectable continued, along with a range of different generic formulations. The notable among which, as captured in the above paper, are as follows:

  • China-based Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Company Limited announced the acquisition of an 86 percent stake in Gland Pharma Limited for up to USD1.26 billion.
  • US-based Baxter International Inc. entered into an agreement to acquire Claris Injectable Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Claris Lifesciences Limited, for USD625 million.
  • In November 2017, India’s Torrent Pharmaceuticals acquired more than 120 brands from Unichem Laboratories in India and Nepal, and its manufacturing plant at Sikkim for USD558 million.

Outbound M&A:

Facing continuous pricing and other pressures in the largest pharma market in the world – United States, Indian pharma players sharpened their focus on Europe and other under-penetrated markets, with a wider range of product portfolio. Following are a few examples of recent outbound M&As for the year, done predominantly to serve the above purpose, besides a couple of others with smaller deal values:

  • Intas Pharma, through its wholly owned subsidiary inked an agreement to acquire Actavis UK Limited and Actavis Ireland Limited from Teva Pharmaceutical for an enterprise value of USD767 million.
  • Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories entered into an agreement with Teva Pharmaceutical and an affiliate of Allergan plc to acquire a portfolio of eight ANDAs in the US for USD350 million.
  • Sun Pharma stepped into the Japanese prescription drug market by acquiring 14 brands from Novartis for USD293 million.
  • Lupin also strengthened its position in Japan by acquiring 21 products from Shionogi & Company Limited for USD150 million. In 2017, Lupin also acquired US-based Symbiomix Therapeutics – a privately held company focused on bringing innovative therapies to market for gynecologic infections. The acquisition value stands at USD 150 million.
  • Two other relatively large outbound acquisitions in 2017 were Piramal Enterprises’ acquisition of anti-spasticity and pain management drug portfolio of Mallinckrodt for USD171 million and Aurobindo Pharma’s Generis Farmaceutica USD142.5 million.

Long term business impact of M&A on the merged entity:

So far so good. Nevertheless, a key point to ponder, what is the long-term impact of M&A on the merged entities in India. It may impact several critical areas, such as financial ratios, reputation on drug quality standards or even its impact on employee morale. Sun Pharma’s acquisition of Ranbaxy in 2015 may be an example in this regard. Not too many credible studies are available for Indian pharma companies in this regard, it could be an interesting area for further research, though.

A research paper titled “Post-Merger Performance of Acquiring Firms: A Case Study on Indian Pharmaceutical Industry”, published by the International Journal of Research in Management & Business Studies (IJRMBS), in its July-September 2015 issue, captured an interesting point. It found, that M&As have a significant impact on the merged company performance as compared to the pre-merger period, but the impact is evident more in the immediate year after the merger.

The paper concluded, although the profitability had improved in the merged company as indicated in the financial ratios, like PBIT, Cash Profit margin and Net profit margin, but the improvement in the performance is observed only up to 1 year of the merger. As far as operating performance is concerned the short term positive impact can be observed, but again it lasts up to 1 year only. The overall study results, therefore, indicate the positive impact of merger on the operating and financial performance only in the short run (+1 year).

Is it a mixed bag?

Nevertheless, there are also other studies in this regard, which concluded the favorable impact of M&As on corporate performance. However, those studies adopted certain other parameters of measuring the financial and operational improvements in the merged companies. Some more research findings in this area – ferreted out from literature review and are available in the same issue of IJRMBS), revealing a mixed bag. Let me quote some these findings, starting from the earlier years, as follows:

Kruze, Park and Suzuki (2003): With a sample of 56 mergers of manufacturing companies from the period 1969 to 1997 concluded that the long term operating performance of control firms was positive but insignificant and high correlation existed between pre and post-merger performance.

Beena (2004): Analyzed the pre and post-merger performance of firms belonging to pharma manufacturing industries with samples of 115 acquiring firms between the period 1995 and 2000. For the purpose of analysis four sets of financial ratios were considered and it was tested using t –test. The study showed no improvement in the performance, as compared to the pre-merger period for the sample companies. 

Vanitha. S and Selvam. M (2007): With a sample of 58, to study the impact of merger on the performance in the Indian manufacturing sector from 2000 to 2002, the study concluded, overall financial performance is insignificant for 13 variables.

Pramod Mantravadi and Vidyadhar Reddy (2008): Investigated a sample of 118 cases of mergers in their study. They found, more impact of merger was noticed on the profitability of banking and finance industry, pharmaceutical, textile and electric equipment sector, whereas the significant decline was seen in chemical and Agri-Products sector.

More Indian studies are expected in this interesting area to understand the possible long-term impact of pharma M&A in India.

Conclusion:

Be that as it may, inbound and outbound consolidation and expansion of the Indian pharma industry through M&A will continue. However, this likely to happen at a varying pace, depending upon both the opportunities and constraints for business growth. This will include both in the export and the domestic markets.

Increasingly complex business environment, intense drug pricing pressure in the US, dwindling much differentiated product pipeline, impending patent expiry of blockbuster drugs, will drive the inbound M&A. Whereas, the domestic players would like to spread their wings in search of greater market access, across the world. This process is likely to include a different type of product-mix, including specialty and biologic products, creating some barrier to market entry for many other generic players.

Going forward, the critical drivers for pharma M&A in India, both inbound and outbound, are unlikely to undergo any radical change. Interestingly, available research studies regarding its long-term impact on the companies involved in this process are not yet conclusive. However, many researchers on the subject still believe, especially the financial impact of M&As on the merged entities in India last no more than short to medium term.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

R&D: Is Indian Pharma Moving Up the Value Chain?

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It almost went unnoticed by many, when in the post product patent regime, Ranbaxy launched its first homegrown ‘New Drug’ of India, Synriam, on April 25, 2012, coinciding with the ‘World Malaria Day’. The drug is used in the treatment of plasmodium falciparum malaria affecting adult patients.  However, the company has also announced its plans to extend the benefits of Synriam to children in the malaria endemic zones of Asia and Africa.

The new drug is highly efficacious with a cure rate of over 95 percent offering advantages of “compliance and convenience” too. The full course of treatment is one tablet a day for three days costing less than US$ 2.0 to a patient.

Synriam was developed by Ranbaxy in collaboration with the Department of Science  and Technology of the Government of India. The project received support from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and conforms to the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). The R&D cost for this drug was reported to be around US$ 30 million. After its regulatory approval in India, Synriam is now being registered in many other countries of the world.

Close on the heels of the above launch, in June 2013 another pharmaceutical major of India, Zydus Cadilla announced that the company is ready for launch in India its first New Chemical Entity (NCE) for the treatment of diabetic dyslipidemia. The NCE called Lipaglyn has been discovered and developed in India and is getting ready for launch in the global markets too.

The key highlights of Lipaglyn are reportedly as follows:

  • The first Glitazar to be approved in the world.
  • The Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has already approved the drug for launch in India.
  • Over 80% of all diabetic patients are estimated to be suffering from diabetic dyslipidemia. There are more than 350 million diabetics globally – so the people suffering from diabetic dyslipidemia could be around 300 million.

With 20 discovery research programs under various stages of clinical development, Zydus Cadilla reportedly invests over 7 percent of its turnover in R&D.  At the company’s state-of-the-art research facility, the Zydus Research Centre, over 400 research scientists are currently engaged in NCE research alone.

Prior to this in May 14, 2013, the Government of India’s Department of Biotechnology (DBT) and Indian vaccine company Bharat Biotech jointly announced positive results, having excellent safety and efficacy profile in Phase III clinical trials, of an indigenously developed rotavirus vaccine.

The vaccine name Rotavac is considered to be an important scientific breakthrough against rotavirus infections, the most severe and lethal cause of childhood diarrhea, responsible for approximately 100,000 deaths of small children in India each year.

Bharat Biotech has announced a price of US$ 1.00/dose for Rotavac. When approved by the Drug Controller General of India, Rotavac will be a more affordable alternative to the rotavirus vaccines currently available in the Indian market. 

It is indeed interesting to note, a number of local Indian companies have started investing in pharmaceutical R&D to move up the industry value chain and are making rapid strides in this direction.

Indian Pharma poised to move-up the value-chain:

Over the past decade or so, India has acquired capabilities and honed skills in several important areas of pharma R&D, like for example:

  • Cost effective process development
  • Custom synthesis
  • Physical and chemical characterization of molecules
  • Genomics
  • Bio-pharmaceutics
  • Toxicology studies
  • Execution of phase 2 and phase 3 studies

According to a paper titled, “The R&D Scenario in Indian Pharmaceutical Industry” published by Research and Information System for Developing Countries, over 50 NCEs/NMEs of the Indian Companies are currently at different stages of development, as follows:

Company Compounds Therapy Areas Status
Biocon 7 Oncology, Inflammation, Diabetes Pre-clinical, phase II, III
Wockhardt 2 Anti-infective Phase I, II
Piramal Healthcare 21 Oncology, Inflammation, Diabetes Lead selection, Pre-clinical, Phase I, II
Lupin 6 Migraine, TB, Psoriasis, Diabetes, Rheumatoid Arthritis Pre-clinical, Phase I, II, III
Torrent 1 Diabetic heart failure Phase I
Dr. Reddy’s Lab 6 Metabolic/Cardiovascular disorders, Psoriasis, migraine On going, Phase I, II
Glenmark 8 Metabolic/Cardiovascular /Respiratory/Inflammatory /Skin disorders, Anti-platelet, Adjunct to PCI/Acute Coronary Syndrome, Anti-diarrheal, Neuropathic Pain, Skin Disorders, Multiple Sclerosis, Ongoing, Pre-clinical, Phase I, II, III

R&D collaboration and partnership:

Some of these domestic companies are also entering into licensing agreements with the global players in the R&D space. Some examples are reportedly as follows:

  • Glenmark has inked licensing deals with Sanofi of France and Forest Laboratories of the United States to develop three of its own patented molecules.
  • Domestic drug major Biocon has signed an agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) for new drug candidates.
  • Piramal Life Sciences too entered into two risk-reward sharing deals in 2007 with Merck and Eli Lilly, to enrich its research pipeline of drugs.
  • Jubilant Group partnered with Janssen Pharma of Belgium and AstraZeneca of the United Kingdom for pharma R&D in India, last year.

All these are just indicative collaborative R&D initiatives in the Indian pharmaceutical industry towards harnessing immense growth potential of this area for a win-win business outcome.

The critical mass:

An international study estimated that out of 10,000 molecules synthesized, only 20 reach the preclinical stage, 10 the clinical trials stage and ultimately only one gets regulatory approval for marketing. If one takes this estimate into consideration, the research pipeline of the Indian companies would require to have at least 20 molecules at the pre-clinical stage to be able to launch one innovative product in the market.

Though pharmaceutical R&D investments in India are increasing, still these are not good enough. The Annual Report for 2011-12 of the Department of Pharmaceuticals indicates that investments made by the domestic pharmaceutical companies in R&D registered an increase from 1.34 per cent of sales in 1995 to 4.5 percent in 2010. Similarly, the R&D expenditure for the MNCs in India has increased from 0.77 percent of their net sales in 1995 to 4.01 percent in 2010.

Thus, it is quite clear, both the domestic companies and the MNCs are not spending enough on R&D in India. As a result, at the individual company level, India is yet to garner the critical mass in this important area.

No major R&D investments in India by large MNCs:

According to a report, major foreign players with noteworthy commercial operations in India have spent either nothing or very small amount towards pharmaceutical R&D in the country. The report also mentions that Swiss multinational Novartis, which spent $ 9 billion on R&D in 2012 globally, does not do any R&D in India.

Analogue R&D strategy could throw greater challenges:

For adopting the analogue research strategy, by and large, the Indian pharma players appear to run the additional challenge of proving enhanced clinical efficacy over the known substance to pass the acid test of the Section 3(d) of the Patents Act of India.

Public sector R&D:

In addition to the private sector, research laboratories in the public sector under the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) like, Central Drug Research Institute (CDRI), Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (IICT) and National Chemical Laboratory (NCL) have also started contributing to the growth of the Indian pharmaceutical industry.

As McKinsey & company estimated, given adequate thrust, the R&D costs in India could be much lower, only 40 to 60 per cent of the costs incurred in the US. However, in reality R&D investments of the largest global pharma R&D spenders in India are still insignificant, although they have been expressing keenness for Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) mostly in the brownfield pharma sector.

Cost-arbitrage:

Based on available information, global pharma R&D spending is estimated to be over US$ 60 billion. Taking the cost arbitrage of India into account, the global R&D spend at Indian prices comes to around US$ 24 billion. To achieve even 5 percent of this total expenditure, India should have invested by now around US$ 1.2 billion on the pharmaceutical R&D alone. Unfortunately that has not been achieved just yet, as discussed above.

Areas of cost-arbitrage:

A survey done by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in 2011 with the senior executives from the American and European pharmaceutical companies, highlights the following areas of perceived R&D cost arbitrage in India:

Areas % Respondents
Low overall cost 73
Access to patient pool 70
Data management/Informatics 55
Infrastructure set up 52
Talent 48
Capabilities in new TA 15

That said, India should realize that the current cost arbitrage of the country is not sustainable on a longer-term basis. Thus, to ‘make hay while the sun shines’ and harness its competitive edge in this part of the world, the country should take proactive steps to attract both domestic as well as Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in R&D with appropriate policy measures and fiscal incentives.

Simultaneously, aggressive capacity building initiatives in the R&D space, regulatory reforms based on the longer term need of the country and intensive scientific education and training would play critical role to establish India as an attractive global hub in this part of the world to discover and develop newer medicines for all.

Funding:

Accessing the world markets is the greatest opportunity in the entire process of globalization and the funds available abroad could play an important role to boost R&D in India. Inadequacy of funds in the Indian pharmaceutical R&D space is now one of the greatest concerns for the country.

The various ways of funding R&D could be considered as follows:

  • Self-financing Research: This is based on:
  1. “CSIR Model”: Recover research costs through commercialization/ collaboration with industries to fund research projects.
  2. “Dr Reddy’s Lab / Glenmark Model”: Recover research costs by selling lead compounds without taking through to development.
  • Overseas Funding:  By way of joint R&D ventures with overseas collaborators, seeking grants from overseas health foundations, earnings from contract research as also from clinical development and transfer of aborted leads and collaborative projects on ‘Orphan Drugs’.
  • Venture Capital & Equity Market:  This could be both via ‘Private Venture Capital Funds’ and ‘Special Government Institutions’.  If regulations permit, foreign venture funds may also wish to participate in such initiatives. Venture Capital and Equity Financing could emerge as important sources of finance once track record is demonstrated and ‘early wins’ are recorded.
  • Fiscal & Non-Fiscal Support: Should also be valuable in early stages of R&D, for which a variety of schemes are possible as follows:
  1. Customs Duty Concessions: For Imports of specialized equipment, e.g. high throughput screening equipment, equipment for combinatorial chemistry, special analytical tools, specialized pilot plants, etc.
  2. Income tax concessions (weighted tax deductibility): For both in-house and sponsored research programs.
  3. Soft loans: For financing approved R&D projects from the Government financial institutions / banks.
  4. Tax holidays: Deferrals, loans on earnings from R&D.
  5. Government funding: Government grants though available, tend to be small and typically targeted to government institutions or research bodies. There is very little government support for private sector R&D as on date.

All these schemes need to be simple and hassle free and the eligibility criteria must be stringent to prevent any possible misuse.

Patent infrastructure:

Overall Indian patent infrastructure needs to be strengthened, among others, in the following areas:

  • Enhancement of patent literacy both in legal and scientific communities, who must be taught how to read, write and file a probe.
  • Making available appropriate ‘Search Engines’ to Indian scientists to facilitate worldwide patent searches.
  • Creating world class Indian Patent Offices (IPOs) where the examination skills and resources will need considerable enhancement.
  • ‘Advisory Services’ on patents to Indian scientists to help filing patents in other countries could play an important role.

Creating R&D ecosystem:

  • Knowledge and learning need to be upgraded through the universities and specialist centers of learning within India.
  • Science and Technological achievements should be recognized and rewarded through financial grants and future funding should be linked to scientific achievements.
  • Indian scientists working abroad are now inclined to return to India or network with laboratories in India. This trend should be effectively leveraged.

Universities to play a critical role:

Most of Indian raw scientific talents go abroad to pursue higher studies.  International Schools of Science like Stanford or Rutgers should be encouraged to set up schools in India, just like Kellogg’s and Wharton who have set up Business Schools. It has, however, been reported that the Government of India is actively looking into this matter.

‘Open Innovation’ Model:

As the name suggest, ‘Open Innovation’ or the ‘Open Source Drug Discovery (OSDD)’ is an open source code model of discovering a New Chemical Entity (NCE) or a New Molecular Entity (NME). In this model all data generated related to the discovery research will be available in the open for collaborative inputs. In ‘Open Innovation’, the key component is the supportive pathway of its information network, which is driven by three key parameters of open development, open access and open source.

Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) of India has adopted OSDD to discover more effective anti-tubercular medicines.

Insignificant R&D investment in Asia-Pacific Region:

Available data indicate that 85 percent of the medicines produced by the global pharmaceutical industry originate from North America, Europe, Japan and some from Latin America and the developed nations hold 97 percent of the total pharmaceutical patents worldwide.

MedTRACK reveals that just 15 percent of all new drug development is taking place in Asia-Pacific region, including China, despite the largest global growth potential of the region.

This situation is not expected to change significantly in the near future for obvious reasons. The head start that the western world and Japan enjoy in this space of the global pharmaceutical industry would continue to benefit those countries for some more time.

Some points to ponder:

  • It is essential to have balanced laws and policies, offering equitable advantage for innovation to all stakeholders, including patients.
  • Trade policy is another important ingredient, any imbalance of which can either reinforce or retard R&D efforts.
  • Empirical evidence across the globe has demonstrated that a well-balanced patent regime would encourage the inflow of technology, stimulate R&D, benefit both the national and the global pharmaceutical sectors and most importantly improve the healthcare system, in the long run.
  • The Government, academia, scientific fraternity and the pharmaceutical Industry need to get engaged in various relevant Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangements for R&D to ensure wider access to newer and better medicines in the country, providing much needed stimulus to the public health interest of the nation.

Conclusion:

R&D initiatives, though very important for most of the industries, are the lifeblood for the pharmaceutical sector, across the globe, to meet the unmet needs of the patients. Thus, quite rightly, the pharmaceutical Industry is considered to be the ‘lifeline’ for any nation in the battle against diseases of all types.

While the common man expects newer and better medicines at affordable prices, the pharmaceutical industry has to battle with burgeoning R&D costs, high risks and increasingly long period of time to take a drug from the ‘mind to market’, mainly due to stringent regulatory requirements. There is an urgent need to strike a right balance between the two.

In this context, it is indeed a proud moment for India, when with the launch of its home grown new products, Synriam of Ranbaxy and Lipaglyn of Zydus Cadilla or Rotavac Vaccine of Bharat Biotech translate a common man’s dream of affordable new medicines into reality and set examples for others to emulate.

Thus, just within seven years from the beginning of the new product patent regime in India, stories like Synriam, Lipaglyn, Rotavac or the R&D pipeline of over 50 NCEs/NMEs prompt resurfacing the key unavoidable query yet again:

Has Indian pharma started catching-up with the process of new drug discovery, after decades of hibernation, to move up the industry ‘Value Chain’?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Sanofi’s acquisition of Universal Medicare could redefine nutraceuticals business in India

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The Economic Times in its August 24, 2011 edition reported that Sanofi-Aventis has acquired the nutraceuticals business of Universal Medicare to scale up their business operations in the ‘wellness’ space of the healthcare sector in India.

What are ‘Nutraceuticals’?

Dr. Stephen DeFelice of the ‘Foundation for Innovation in Medicine’ coined the term ‘Nutraceutical’ from “Nutrition” and “Pharmaceutical” in 1989. The term nutraceutical is being commonly used in marketing such drugs/substances but has no regulatory definition.

It is often claimed that nutraceuticals are not just dietary supplements, but also help prevention and/or treatment of disease conditions.

Besides diseases, nutrition related risk factors contributing to more than 40% of deaths in the developing countries like India, nutraceutical products do show a promise as an emerging business opportunity within the healthcare space of the country.

The market:

The global nutraceuticals market is currently estimated to be around US$ 117 billion and expected to reach US$ 177 billion by 2013 with a CAGR of 7%, driven mainly by functional foods segment with a CAGR of 11%. The top countries in this category are Japan, USA and Europe with the former two together enjoying around 58% market share of the total nutraceuticals consumption of the world. In 2008 Indian nutraceuticals market was around US$ 1.0 billion, 54% of which being functional foods.

The prices of most nutraceuticals products, being outside government price regulations in India, are usually high.

Although current market share of India in the global nutraceuticals market is less than even 1%, a report from PwC predicts that India will join the league of top 10 by 2020. Increasing discretionary spending, changing lifestyles and growing awareness among Indians about healthy living, coupled with current overall low market penetration of high priced nutraceuticals products in India, could create a powerful trigger for the market growth.

Sanofi could sniff the opportunity in India:

Sniffing the market opportunity in this segment, especially in India, the Sanofi group’s Aventis Pharma, as mentioned above, has acquired the nutraceuticals business of Universal Medicare Private Ltd of worth Rs.110 Crore, in August, 2011. The nutraceuticals product portfolio of Universal Medicare consists of more than 40 brands, which include cod liver oil capsules, vitamins/ mineral supplements, antioxidants and liver tonics to name a few.

It will be interesting to watch whether Sanofi takes these nutraceutical products to other markets of the world, especially in Japan, Europe and the US.

Currently most global pharma companies are engaged in evidence based therapeutic substances:

So far, the large global pharmaceutical players have been focusing mainly, if not only on Evidence Based Medicines (EVM). Companies like, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), were reported to have discontinued marketing those products, which do not fall under ‘Evidence Based Medicines (EVM), even in India.

Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM):

The term and concept of EBM originated at McMaster University of Canada in early 1990 and has been defined as “the integration of best research evidence with clinical expertise and patient values” (Sackett, 2000).

EBM is thus a multifaceted process of systematically reviewing, appraising and using clinical research findings to aid the delivery of optimum clinical care to patients/user. EBM also seeks to assess the strength of evidence of the risks and benefits of any particular treatment claim. This is mainly because increasingly the users are looking to authentic scientific evidence in clinical/wellness practice.

Thus many global pharmaceutical companies believe that EBM offers the most objective way to determine and maintain consistently high quality and safety standards of healthcare products in the healthcare practice.

The span of nutraceuticals ranges from prescription to OTC Products:

In India, nutraceuticals are being used/prescribed even by the medical profession, not only as nutritional supplements but also for the treatment of disease conditions, like arthritis, osteoporosis, cardiology, diabetes, pain management etc.

The challenge: Some experts believe, robust clinical data support is essential to substantiate ‘wellness’ claim with nutraceuticals:

Therapeutic efficacy in the treatment of a disease condition is established with pharmaceutical, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics studies of the substances concerned. Some experts believe that these studies are very important also for nutraceuticals, as they are involved in a series of various reactions within the body, especially while making any therapeutic claims, directly or indirectly.

Similarly, to establish any long term toxicity problem with such products, generation of credible data including those with animal reaction to the products, both short and long term, using test doses several times higher than the recommended ones, is critical.

These experts, therefore, quite often say, “A lack of reported toxicity problems with any nutraceutical should not be interpreted as evidence of safety.”

The status in the USA:

In the USA, Congress passed the ‘Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act’ in 1994. This act allows ‘functional claims’ to Dietary supplements without drug approval, like “Vitamin A promotes good vision” or “St. Johns Wort maintains emotional well-being”, as long as the product label contains a specific disclaimer that the said claim has not been evaluated by the FDA and that the product concerned is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent disease.

The above Act bestows some important responsibility to the doctors in particular, who are required to provide specific and accurate scientific information for nutraceutical products to their patients. This process assumes critical importance as the patients would expect the doctors to describe to them about the usefulness of nutraceutical products as alternatives to approved drugs. In such cases, if any doctor recommends a dietary supplement instead of pharmaceutical products, the doctor concerned must be aware of the risk that the patient’s health may suffer, for which the affected patient could sue the doctor for malpractice.

The Point to ponder: What happens if nutraceuticals are regulated as pharmaceuticals?

It is worth mentioning, if generation of clinical data, though albeit less than the pharmaceuticals, ever becomes mandatory regulatory requirements for getting marketing approval of nutraceutical products in India, commensurate increase in price for such products could indeed push their commercial survival in jeopardy.

Conclusion:

Nutraceuticals bearing a tag of promise, in a conducive regulatory environment, to provide desirable therapeutic benefits with less or no side effects as compared to conventional medicines, is growing well with reasonably good financial success, across the world. India is no exception.

In India, many nutraceuticals products, which are currently in the market, do not seem to have been adequately tested to generate robust clinical data, leave aside being peer reviewed and published in the reputed international journals for either safety or efficacy. Entry of global majors, like Sanofi, with a sharp focus on EBM, brings in a hope and promise to get these loose knots, in this very important area, tightened very significantly, while driving their business growth in the country.

Under this backdrop, it is widely expected that Sanofi, with its well proven global marketing and technical leadership, would change the ball game of nutraceutical products business in the healthcare space of India.

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Abbott – Piramal deal: the way future is expected to shape up

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In my view, these are still very early days for such acquisitions of large domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies by the Global Pharma majors to gain momentum in the country. However, there is no doubt that in the near future, we shall rather witness more strategic collaborations between Indian and Global pharmaceutical companies, especially in the generic space.

Squeezing margin due to cut-throat domestic and international competition may affect future valuation of the domestic companies:

I reckon, the number of such high profile mergers and acquisitions will significantly increase, as and when the valuation of domestic Indian companies appears quite attractive to the global pharma majors. This could happen, as the domestic players face more cut-throat competition both in Indian and international markets, squeezing their profit margin.
Abbott possibly has a well-structured game plan for seemingly high valuation of the deal:
Having said that let me point out, during Ranbaxy-Daiichi Sankyo deal, analysts felt that the valuation of the deal was quite high. US $ 3.7 billion Abbott – Piramal deal has far exceeded even that valuation. Does this deal not make any business sense? I do not think so. Abbott is a financially savvy seasoned player in the M&A space. It is very unlikely that they will enter into any deal, which will not have any strategic and financial business sense.

Big ticket Indian Pharma deals:

So far India has seen four such major deals starting from Ranbaxy – Daiichi Sankyo, Dabur Pharma – Fresenius, Matrix – Myalan and Orchid – Hospira, besides some global collaborative arrangements, such as, Pfizer with Aurobindo/Claris/Strides GSK with DRL, AsraZeneca with Torrent and again Abbott with Zydus Cadila.

Key drivers for these deals:

Such acquisitions and collaborations will be driven by following eight key factors:

1. R&D pipelines of the global innovative companies are drying up
2. Many blockbuster drugs will go off-patent in the near future
3. Cost containment pressure in the western world exerting pressure on the bottom lines
of the global pharma majors
4. Increasing demand of generics in high growth emerging and developing markets
5. The new Healthcare Reform in the US will promote increased usage of generic drugs.
6. The fact that India already produces 20% of the global requirement for generic drugs
increases the attractiveness.
7. The fact of domestic Indian companies account for 35% of ANDAs highlights the future
potential of the respective companies.
8. Highest number of US-FDA approved plants, next to the US, is located in India.

A strategic move by Abbott:

As announced by Abbott from its headquarter in Chicago that Abbott in India will increase its sales four times to around Rs. 11,000 Crores by 2020 with the acquisition of 350 brands of ‘Piramal Healthcare’ business.

Facing the stark reality of a ‘patent Cliff’, cost containment pressures especially in the US and EU, low single digit growth rate of the developed markets and high growth of branded generic dominated emerging markets, Abbott has taken a new global initiative aimed at the emerging markets with the creation of its global ‘Established Products’ Business’. This initiative started with worth US $ 6.2 billion acquisition of branded generic business of Solvay Pharma, which has a sizeable presence in the EU markets.
Recently announced licensing agreement of Abbott with Zydus Cadila to market 24 products initially in 15 emerging markets of the world is another step towards this direction.

Advantage Abbott India:

The asset based acquisition of ‘Piramal Healthcare’ by Abbott will help its Indian arm to increase its domestic market penetration, significantly, both for branded generic and patented products in urban, semi-urban and rural markets spearheaded by around 7000 strong sales force. This strategy perhaps will also help Abbott in India distancing itself from the number 2, in the Indian Pharma league table, probably with a handsome margin.

Global players want a risk-cover with the generic business and minimize tough competition:

Like Abbott, it is quite likely that other major global players are also planning to reduce their business risks by expanding the business from mainly high risk and expensive R&D intensive patented products to a more predictable and rapidly expanding branded generic business.

Will such move have any significant effect on competition?

Such M&A initiatives may seemingly minimize the cut throat competition from large generic players from India. However, I do not envisage any significant impact on over all competition between the generic players for such moves, as their will be mounting competition from more number of new entrants and emerging players, entry barrier in Indian generic pharmaceutical market being quite low.

Conclusion:

In the globalized economy where the ‘world is flat’ such types of business consolidation initiatives are inevitable. The domestic Indian companies across the industry are also in the prowl for suitable global targets, which are at times of world class ‘Crown Jewels’ like Arcelor, Chorus or Jaguar/Land Rover. Pharmaceutical industry is, therefore, no exception.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.