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Neutralize Covid-19 Impact on Drug Prices And Market Access For Faster Recovery

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Covid-19 pandemic that has not spared any facet of human lives and livelihoods, has also reignited several ongoing debates related to the drug industry. The need to urgently resolve these issues grows manifold, as the real magnitude of this health crisis doesn’t seem to be clear even to the key Government decision makers.

This is vindicated by the research paper, written by government scientists and other experts, published on September 10, 2020 in the Indian Journal of Medical Research. It reveals, India had nearly 6.5 million cases as early as May 2020. Whereas, according to the health ministry, the total number cases stood at around 180,000 in late May. This happened because, ‘large numbers of cases could have gone under the radar earlier this year, because testing was limited to symptomatic patients or states had varying testing rates,’ the paper highlighted.

From the pharma industry perspective, a pandemic of such magnitude is also causing indefinite delay in pre-planned market access of several important drugs and vaccines. Some are due to technical reasons. However, many others are related to their value-based cost-effectiveness in the new normal, when the pandemic has put enormous strain on health expenditure, across the world.

In this situation, past mechanisms of new drug pricing, are required to undergo significant changes. The new yardsticks, I reckon, will be based on two critical factors. The first – the disease treatment priorities, as will be decided jointly by both doctors and patients. And the second – the paying capacity of both payers and individual patients, based on the value that each treatment will offer – again, as perceived by patients.

As it appears, the impact of Covid-19 on the pharma industry will continue till the medium term, if not beyond. Consequently, the concept of new drug pricing – based on well-documented, differential value offerings of treatments, would need to be revisited and recalibrated. This has to be realigned with evolving patient needs. Considering the emerging scenario, this article will focus on the exigency to neutralize Covid-19 impact on new drug prices and pre-planned ‘market access’ – for faster business recovery.

Covid-19 has increased the drug price sensitivity:

The challenge of increasing drug price sensitivity – triggered by the new Coronavirus pandemic, has now assumed a global dimension. A June 18, 2020 study, flags: ‘Nine in 10 Concerned About Rising Drug Costs Due to COVID-19.’ Although, this particular study (Gallup Poll) was conducted in the United States, general public apprehension is no different in other parts of the world, including India, for various reasons.

Even in America, which is considered Eldorado for pharma business, primarily for unregulated drug pricing, is also changing with the impact of Covid-19. The reason being, reported instances of drug prices are rapidly rising, amid the pandemic. As the above Gallup Poll highlights, today ‘a large majority of Americans support direct negotiations by the federal government with the drug manufacturer on the price of a treatment for the disease itself.” Interestingly, ‘significant support exists across all major demographic groups.’

Other specialists on pharmaceutical pricing and market access, also envisage that pharmaceutical companies will be faced with increased price sensitivity, and are quite concerned with the long-term impact of the pandemic on health care systems.

Covid-19 pandemic would seriously impact pharma spending:

As quoted above, several other specialists for pharmaceutical pricing and market access have also pointed out some critical Covid-19 impact areas, including:

  • Tremendous increase in pandemic related public expenditure, could prompt further austerity measures in already strained health care budgets, besides job losses or pay cuts of scores of people for different reasons.
  • The pandemic is likely to result in a redistribution of health care funding towards infectious diseases (e.g. prioritization of antivirals and vaccines) and chronic diseases associated with worsening COVID-19 outcomes.
  • This may result in more drug pricing pressure in other disease areas, besides push for increasing use of similar cheaper generics and biosimilars, unless absolutely necessary.
  • Stricter monitoring of usage of medicines, especially in private hospitals, to ensure their use within the regulatory label and/or within the reimbursed population.
  • Possibility of mandatory price cuts either across the board or for drugs which have been on the market for a specific duration.

The report also envisages, pharmaceutical companies will be faced with increased price sensitivity and decrease in willingness to pay by authorities. Consequently, the key question in this area becomes: What impact will COVID-19 have on the future of pricing and market access? And how to address this issue, effectively? 

Need for an appropriate drug pricing models in the new normal:

Overall scenario for drug pricing model has not changed much, till Convid-19 pandemic overwhelmed the world. The age-old concept of drug pricing, being treated as almost given, is changing fast. As I wrote earlier, it started in the developed world, with newer concepts, such as, Health Technology Assessment (HTA), besides a few others. However, to illustrate the point, I shall focus only on the HTA model. It includes a multi-faceted assessment of the clinical, economic, ethical, legal, and societal perspectives that may be impacted by a new technology, procedure, drug, or process.

Application of HTA in Medicine Pricing:

The ‘Working Paper 6’ of June 2013, on ‘The Role of Health Technology Assessment in Medicine Pricing and Reimbursement,’ published jointly by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Health Action International (HAI), is worth referring to.

The paper aims to identify and describe the role of HTA in price-setting and reimbursement of pharmaceuticals, with a focus on its use in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, as Covid-19 is now fueling the drug price sensitivity across the globe, and not just in the LMIC, this reference will help drive home the point, as one faces today.

While combating health care resource crunch in the face of the Coronavirus quagmire, many countries are contemplating a variety of approaches to maintain affordable access to healthcare for patients. The concept of HTA is one such common approach. It includes pharmaceuticals, vaccines, medical devices, medical and surgical procedures, besides the systems within which health is protected and maintained.

Relevance of a recalibrated HTA in the new normal:

For a new drug, as the Institute For Clinical And Economic Review (ICER) puts it, a final HTA report would attempt to answer the following questions, besides a few others:

  • Is it safe and effective?
  • Which patients benefit the most?
  • Is there a meaningful improvement in health status?
  • Can all people afford to pay who might need it?
  • Will it offer a good value in the long run?
  • What other considerations make it important?

These points need to be looked at keeping in view that Covid-19 pandemic has seriously impacted the health care spending. Thus, the process needs to be recalibrated in the new normal. In any case, HTA has the potential to play a critical role in new drug pricing, by assessing the intrinsic value of medicines that can significantly expand patient-access to care. In tandem, it could maximize the value for money in health expenditure with most efficient allocation of scarce health resources, that most countries are facing today. Nevertheless, there could well be a few company or country specific barriers to capture the value of a drug or treatment, as well. A robust plan for their mitigation needs to be well-thought through, to ensure effective implementation and achieve desirable outcomes.

HTA in India:

At least, on paper HTA exists even in India. The Government of India had created an institutional arrangement called “Health Technology Assessment in India (HTAIn)”, under the Department of Health Research (DHR). It was entrusted with collation and the generation of evidences on cost effectiveness and safety of health care interventions, including medicines and devices.

The key goals are, to reduce the cost of patient care, overall cost of medical treatment, reduction in out of pocket expenditure of patients, besides streamlining the medical reimbursement procedures. Nevertheless, it remains a million dollar question whether India would leverage this system to ensure fair pricing of new drugs in India.

Some pre-requisites to implement HTA – afresh:

In those countries, where HTA for drug pricing and reimbursement doesn’t already exist, there could be several pre-requisites. These may include, as the above paper indicates, establishing a medicines regulatory system, developing and enforcing legislation, employing the appropriate technical expertise, and the allocation of sector-wide financial resources in accordance with the decisions of the organization using the HTA.

That said, the bottom-line is, the quest to arrive at fair pricing for a new drug, could also help ‘market access’, especially in a difficult time, like today’s health care crisis. In that endeavor, let me briefly dwell on the concept of ‘fair pricing a drug’.    

The concept of ‘fair pricing a drug’:

This issue has been well deliberated by many experts around the world. However, let me quote a recent article – ‘Defining the concept of fair pricing for medicines,’ published by The BMJ on January 13, 2020.

The paper articulates, ‘a fair price for a medicine is affordable to the buyer while covering the seller’s costs and providing a reasonable profit margin. Within a fair pricing zone, a specific price may be higher or lower, possibly reflecting differential value.

Interestingly, the authors also noted: ‘Applying the framework to decision making would require access to data on R&D, manufacturing, and distribution costs, which is generally not publicly disclosed. This lack of transparency about costs undermines efforts to assess the fairness of medicines prices.’

The article underscored, lack of transparency in these areas, ‘also exacerbates information asymmetry to the sellers’ advantage.’ It suggested, disclosure can be enforced through legislation, regulation, and judicial action. Or as a condition of receiving public research funds, tax benefits, regulatory approval. Or listing in a formulary for reimbursement. ‘In the absence of disclosure, decision makers may rely on reasonable estimates based on publicly available information,’ the paper concluded.

Conclusion:

As recorded in the morning of September 13, 2020, total Coronavirus cases in India have reached a staggering figure of 4,754,356 with 78,614 deaths, overtaking Brazil. This trend continues going North, as days pass by.

All-pervasive Covid-19 pandemic is fueling severe resource constraints, especially for health care. Amid this complexity, to combat this deadly virus – alongside other non-Covid related illnesses – value added drugs and treatments could help overcome many hurdles in this area. They could help improve cost-effectiveness of treatments to price-sensitive patients, besides other stakeholders.

Recalibrated HTA mechanism, which I have used in this article as an example to effectively overcome prevailing drug price sensitivity, is one among a few others. Importantly, HTA mechanism exists even in India. It can be appropriately used for new drugs and vaccines pricing, if the Government wishes to.

On the other hand, it’s up to individual companies to choose any other price-value model’ that they will deem appropriate, to arrive at a ‘fair value for new drugs’. However, the goal remains common for all - Neutralizing Covid-19 impact on drug prices and market access, to ensure faster recovery of the business.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

How Cost-Effective Are New Cancer Drugs?

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The main reason why cancer is so serious a disease, is the ability of the malignant cells to spread in the body, both locally by moving into nearby normal tissue, and regionally to nearby lymph nodes, tissues, or organs, affecting even the distant parts of the body. When this happens, doctors term it as metastatic or stage IV (four) cancer.

Although most patients with metastatic tumors would eventually die of cancer, the treatment with various types of anticancer drugs, could help prolong life, in varying degree. No wonder, many new anticancer drugs now obtain regulatory approval based on their effectiveness on metastatic cancer patients. Consequently, it has now become almost a routine to administer newer anticancer drugs to patients with early stage of disease, after they have undergone surgery or radiotherapy.

But, these lifesaving drugs are expensive – very expensive! For example, a newer anticancer treatment is often priced at US$ 100,000 or more per patient, which, obviously, a large majority of the population can’t just afford.

Are these new drugs cost-effective?

To put in simple words, cost effectiveness of a drug is generally ‘expressed in terms of a ratio where the denominator is a gain in health from a measure (years of life, premature births averted, sight-years gained) and the numerator is the cost associated with the health gain.’

From this perspective, a January 2015 research study titled, “Pricing In The Market For Anticancer Drugs”, published by the National Bureau Of Economic Research of the United States observed that anticancer drugs like bevacizumab (US$ 50,000 per treatment episode) and ipilimumab (US$120,000 per episode) have fueled the perception that the launch prices of anticancer drugs are fast increasing over time.

To evaluate the pricing trend of these drugs, the researchers used an original dataset of 58 anticancer drugs, approved between 1995 and 2013, and found that launch-prices, adjusted for inflation and drugs’ survival benefits, increased by 10 percent, or about US$ 8,500, per year. This study was restricted to drugs administered with the primary intent of extending survival time for cancer patients and drugs for which survival benefits have been estimated in trials or modeling studies. The researchers did not consider drugs administered to treat pain or drugs that are administered to alleviate the side effects of cancer treatments.

The paper concluded, as compared to the older ones, newer anticancer treatments, generally, are less cost-effective. Despite this fact, the prices of these drugs are rising faster than their overall effectiveness.

How much do these drugs cost to prolong a year of life for cancer patients?

Another paper, titled “Cancer Drugs Aren’t As Cost-Effective As They Used To Be”, published in the Forbes magazine on September 30, 2015, expressed serious concern on the declining cost-effectiveness of new anticancer drugs. The author termed this trend as unacceptable, and more disturbing when providing just a year of life to cancer patients costs around US$ 350,000 to even US$ 800,000. High prices should reflect large benefits, and we need to demand value out of medical interventions – he recommended.

Do the claims of efficacy also reflect the real-world effectiveness?

Providing an answer to this question, a very recent article titled, “Assessment of Overall Survival, Quality of Life, and Safety Benefits Associated With New Cancer Medicines”, published in the well reputed medical journal ‘JAMA Oncology’ on December 29, 2016, concluded as follows:

“Although innovation in the oncology drug market has contributed to improvements in therapy, the magnitude and dimension of clinical benefits vary widely, and there may be reasons to doubt that claims of efficacy reflect real-world effectiveness exactly.”

As stated above, this conclusion was drawn by the researchers after a detail study on the overall survival, quality of life, and safety benefits of recently licensed cancer medicines, as there was a dearth of evidence on the impact of newly licensed cancer medicines.

The authors analyzed in detail health technology assessment reports of 62 cancer drugs approved in the United States and Europe between 2003 and 2013, and found that these were associated with increased overall survival by an average of 3.43 months between 2003 and 2013. Following is a summary of the detail findings:

  • 43 percent increased overall survival by 3 months or longer
  • 11 percent by less than 3 months
  • 30 percent was not associated with any increase in overall survival, which means almost one third of these drugs lacked evidence to suggest their increased survival rate when compared to alternative treatments
  • Most new cancer drugs, though improved quality of life, were associated with reduced patient safety

The researchers expect this study to support clinical practice, and promote value-based decision-making in the cancer drug treatment, besides assessing their cost-effectiveness.

Some overseas Cancer Institutes protested:

In 2012, doctors at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center reportedly announced through ‘The New York Times’ that their hospital would not be using Zaltrap, a newly patented colorectal cancer drug at that time, from Sanofi. This action of the Sloan-Kettering doctors compelled Sanofi to cut the price of Zaltrap by half.

Unlike India, where prices of even cancer drugs do not seem to be a great issue with the medical profession, just yet, the top cancer specialists of the American Society of Clinical Oncology are reportedly working out a framework for rating and selecting cancer drugs not only for their benefits and side effects, but prices as well.

In a 2015 paper, a group of cancer specialists from Mayo Clinic also articulated, that the oft-repeated arguments of price controls stifle innovation are not good enough to justify unusually high prices of these drugs. Their solution for this problem includes value-based pricing and NICE like body of the United Kingdom.

This Interesting Video from Mayo Clinic justifies the argument.

Was it a tongue-in-cheek action from India?

On March 9, 2012, India did send a signal to global pharma players on its apparent unhappiness of astronomical pricing of patented new cancer drugs in the country. The then Indian Patent Controller General, on that day, issued the first ever Compulsory License (CL) to a domestic drug manufacturer Natco, allowing it to sell a generic equivalent of a kidney cancer treatment drug from Bayer – Nexavar, at a small fraction of the originator’s price.

However, nothing has changed significantly since then on the ground for cancer drugs in the country. Hence, many construe the above action of the Government no more than mere tokenism.

In this context, it won’t be out of place recapitulating an article, published in a global business magazine on December 5, 2013 that quoted Marijn Dekkers, the then CEO of Bayer AG as follows:

“Bayer didn’t develop its cancer drug, Nexavar (sorafenib) for India, but for Western Patients that can afford it.”

Whether, CL is the right approach to resolve allegedly ‘profiteering mindset’ at the cost of human lives, is a different subject of discussion.

VBP concept is gaining ground: 

The concept of ‘Value-Based Pricing (VBP)’, has started gaining ground in the developed markets of the world, prompting the pharmaceutical companies generate requisite ‘health outcome’ data using similar or equivalent products.

Cost of incremental value that a product delivers over the existing ones, is of key significance, and should always be the order of the day. Some independent organizations such as, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in the UK have taken a leading role in this area.

Intriguingly, in India, public health related issues, however pressing these are, still do not seem to arrest much attention of the government to provide significant relief to a large majority of population in the country.

Conclusion:

Warren Buffet – the financial investor of global repute once said, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” Unfortunately, this dictum is not applicable to the consumers of high priced life-saving drugs, such as, for cancer.

Prices of new drugs for the treatment of life-threatening ailments, such as cancer, are increasingly becoming unsustainable, across the world, and more in India. As articulated by the American Society of Clinical Oncology in 2014, this is mainly because their prices are disconnected from the actual therapeutic value of products.

Currently, a sizable number of poor and even middle-income patients, who spend their entire life’s saving for treatment of a disease like cancer, have been virtually priced out of the patented new cancer drugs market.

The plight of such patients is worse in India, and would continue to be so, especially when no trace of Universal Health Care/Coverage (UHC) is currently visible anywhere near the healthcare horizon of the country.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma FDI Debate: Highly Opinionated, Sans Assessment of Tangible Outcomes?

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In 2001, the Government of India (GoI) allowed 100 percent Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the pharmaceutical sector through automatic route to attract more investments for new asset creation, boost R&D, new job creation and ultimately to help aligning Indian pharma with the modern pharma world in terms of capacity, capability, wherewithal, reach and value creation.

Thereafter, several major FDI followed, such as:

No. Company Acquirer Value US$M Year
1. Ranbaxy Daiichi Sankyo 4600 2008
2. Shantha Biotechnics Sanofi Pasteur 781 2009
3. Piramal Healthcare Abbott 3700 2010
4. Orchid Chemicals Hospira 200 2012
5. Agila Specialties Mylan 1850 2013

FDI started coming: 

Even recently, in April- June period of 2013, with a capital inflow of around US$ 1 billion, the pharma sector became the brightest star in otherwise gloomy FDI scenario of India.

However, out of 67 FDI investments till September 2011, only one was in the Greenfield area. It is now clear that the liberal pharma FDI policy is being predominantly used for taking overs the domestic pharma companies, as indicated earlier.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data reveals that between April 2012 and April 2013, US$ 989 million FDI was received in brownfield investments, and just US$ 87.3 million in Greenfield investments.

As a result, in 2010 pharma Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) captured over 25 percent of the domestic Indian market, as against just around 15 percent in 2005.

An assessment thus far: 

While assessing the outcomes of liberal pharma FDI regime, especially at a time when India is seeking foreign investments in many other sectors, following facts surface:

New asset creation:

Most of the FDIs in pharma, during this period, have been substitution of domestic capital by foreign capital, rather than any significant new asset creation.

Investment in fixed assets (1994-95 to (2009-10):

Companies Rs. Crore Contribution %
Indian 54,010 94.7
MNC 3,022 5.3
Total 57,032 100

(Source: IPA)

Thus contrary to the expectations of GoI, there has been no significant increase in contribution in fixed assets by the pharma MNCs, despite liberalization of FDI.

Similarly, the available facts indicate that 100 percent FDI through automatic route in the pharma sector has not contributed in terms of creation of new modern production facilities, nor has it strengthened the R&D space of the country. The liberalized policy has not contributed to significantly increase in the employment generation by the pharma MNCs in those important areas, either.

The following figures would vindicate this point:

R&D Spend:

Companies 1994-95(Rs. Crore) Contribution % 2009-10(Rs. Crore) Contribution %
Indian 80.61 55.7 3,342.22 78.1
MNC 64.13 44.3 934.40 21.9
Total 144.74 100 4,276.32 100

(Source: IPA)

The above table vindicates that post liberalization of FDI regime, MNC contribution % in R&D instead of showing any increase, has significantly gone down.

Wage Bill/ Job Creation:

Companies 1994-95(Rs. Crore) Contribution % 2009-10(Rs. Crore) Contribution %
Indian 664 65.5 8,172 87.1
MNC 350 34.5 1,215 12.9
Total 1,014 100 9,387 100

(Source: CMIE)

In the area of job creation/wage bills, as well, liberalized FDI has not shown any increasing trend in terms of contribution % in favor of the MNCs.

Delay in launch of cheaper generics:

There are instances that the acquired entity was not allowed to use flexibilities such as patent challenges to introduce new affordable generic medicines.

The withdrawal of all patent challenges by Ranbaxy on Pfizer’s blockbuster medicine Lipitor filed in more than eight countries immediately after its acquisition by Daiichi-Sankyo, is a case in point.

Key concerns expressed:

Brownfield acquisitions seem to have affected the entire pharma spectrum, spanning across manufacturing/ marketing of oral formulations; injectibles; specialized oncology verticals; vaccines; consumables and devices, with no tangible perceptible benefits noted just yet.

Concerns have been expressed about some sectors, which are very sensitive, such as, cancer injectibles and vaccines.

Moreover, domestic Indian pharma exports generic medicines worth around US$ 13 billion every year establishing itself as a major pharmaceutical exporter of the world and is currently the net foreign exchange earner for the country. If the Government allows the domestic manufacturing facilities of strategic importance to be taken over by the MNCs, some experts feel, it would adversely impact the pharmaceutical export turnover of the country, besides compromising with the domestic capacity while facing epidemics, if any or other health exigencies. It would also have a negative fall out on the supply of affordable generic medicines to other developing nations across the world.

Countries such as Brazil and Thailand have a robust public sector in the pharma space. Therefore, their concerns are less. Since India doesn’t have a robust public sector to fall back on, many experts feel that unrestrained acquisitions in the brownfield sector could be a serious public health concern.

Some conditions proposed:

The DIPP proposal reportedly wants to make certain conditions mandatory for the company attracting FDI, such as:

  • If a company manufactures any of the 348 essential drugs featuring in the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), the highest level of production of that drug in the last three years should be maintained for the next five years
  • The acquirer foreign company would not be allowed to close down the existing R&D centres and would require to mandatorily invest upto 25 per cent of the FDI in the new unit or R&D facility. The total investment as per the proposed condition would have to be incurred within 3 years of the acquisition.
  • Reduction of FDI cap to 49 per cent in rare or critical pharma verticals, as discussed above.
  • If there is any transfer of technology it must be immediately communicated to the administrative ministries and FIPB

Vaccines and cancer injectibles, which have a limited number of suppliers, could fall under the purview of even greater scrutiny.

Conclusion: 

The Ministries of Health and Commerce & Industries, which are in favor of restricting FDI in pharma stricter, are now facing stiff opposition from the Finance Ministry and the Planning Commission.

The Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) has now repotedly prepared a draft Cabinet Note after consulting the ministries of Finance, Pharma and Health, besides others. However, as comments from some ministries came rather late, the DIPP is reportedly moving a supplementary note on this subject.

The matter is likely to come up before the cabinet by end November/December 2013.

While FDI in pharma is much desirable, it is equally important to ensure that a right balance is maintained in India, where majority of the populations face a humongous challenge concerning access to affordable healthcare in general and affordable medicines in particular.

There is, therefore, an urgent need for critical assessment of tangible outcomes of all pharma FDIs in India as on date, based on meaningful parameters. This would help the Government while taking the final decision, either in favor of continuing with the liberalized FDI policy or modifying it as required, for the best interest of country.

Otherwise, without putting the hard facts, generated from India, on the table, is it not becoming yet another highly opinionated debate in its ilk, between  the mighty MNC pharma lobby groups either directly or indirectly, the Government albeit in discordant voices and other members of the society?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma Marketing in India: 10 Chain Events to Catalyze a Paradigm Shift

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In the matured markets of the world pharmaceutical marketing is quite different in many respect as compared to India. Besides doctors, different sets of customer groups like, healthcare providers, patient advocacy groups, pharmacy benefit managers, clinical assessment authorities play various critical roles for use and consumption of branded or generic pharmaceutical products and related healthcare services.

Quite in contrast, even today, individual doctors have continued to remain almost the sole target customers for the pharmaceutical players in India. This is mainly because, by and large, they are the only decision makers for usage of medicines and other healthcare facilities for most of the patients in the country.

Heralding a new paradigm:

As indicated above, though the current pharmaceutical marketing strategies continue to revolve mostly around the doctors, a distinct change, albeit slowly though, is now anticipated within the pharmaceutical marketing space in India.

Gradual emergence of healthcare providers with medical insurance and other related products, patient advocacy groups and standard treatment guidelines, just to name a few, are expected to facilitate heralding a new paradigm in the strategy dynamics of the Indian Pharmaceuticals Market (IPM) in the coming years. These changes will not be incremental in any way, but disruptive and radical in nature, as they will fully evolve.

This process of transformation, mainly driven by Government policy reform measures like, ‘Universal Health Coverage (UHC)’, ‘Free distribution of medicines’, mandatory prescriptions in generic names, could make the current pharmaceutical business strategy models of majority of companies irrelevant and obsolete, in not too distant future.

It is worth noting that the Government will spend around Rs.14,000 Crores (US$ 2.60 billion, approximately) from the year 2014 to 2017 just on medicine purchases at highly negotiated/discounted prices for free distribution to all through Government hospitals and dispensaries.

10 Chain events envisaged: 


In the evolving scenario, following chain events, taking place almost in tandem, in my view, will gradually usher in a new pharmaceutical marketing paradigm in India:

1. In addition to ‘Universal Health Coverage’, there will be a rapid increase in the number of other healthcare providers with innovative, tailor-made and value added schemes for various strata of the society.

2. This will trigger emergence of very powerful groups of negotiators for adopting treatment guidelines, pharmaceutical products usage and other healthcare related services.

3. These groups will have the wherewithal to strongly and significantly influence the doctors in their prescription and other treatment choices.

4. A significant proportion of the products that the pharmaceutical companies will market, a tough price negotiation with the healthcare providers/ medical insurance companies will be inevitable.

5. Consequently, doctors will no longer be the sole decision makers for prescribing drugs and also the way they will treat the common diseases.

6. Pharmaco-economics or Health Technology Assessment (HTA) or outcome based pricing will gradually play an important role in pricing a healthcare products. Drug Price Control Order (DPCO 2013) has already signaled to this direction for a class of products.

7. An integrated approach towards disease prevention will emerge as equally important as treating diseases.

8. A shift from just product marketing to marketing a bundle of value added comprehensive disease management processes along with the product would be the order of the day.

9. More regulatory control measures on pharmaceutical sales and marketing are expected to be put in place by the Government to prevent alleged widespread sales and marketing malpractices in the country.

10. Over the counter (OTC) medicines, especially those originated from natural products to treat common and less serious illnesses, will carve out a sizable share of the market, as appropriate regulations would be put in place, adequately supported by AYUSH. This will be fueled by overall increase in general health awareness of the population.

Trapped in an ‘Archaic Strategy Cocoon’:

Over a long period of time, Indian pharmaceutical industry seems to have trapped itself in a difficult to explain ‘Archaic  Strategy Cocoon’. No holds bar sales promotion activities, with very little of marketing, continue to dominate the ball game of hitting the month-end numbers, even today.

It is high time to come out of this cocoon and confront the ‘writing on the wall’ upfront, if not try to hasten the process of the evolving changes, boldly and squarely. This will require a strategic long term vision to be implemented in an orderly way to effectively convert all these challenges into possible high growth business opportunities.

A differentiated composite value delivery system:

Moreover, in today’s post product patent regime in the country, product pipelines of the domestic Indian companies with new ‘copycat’ versions of patented products have almost dwindled into nothing, making price competition in the market place even more ‘cut throat’.

In such type of changing environment, all pharmaceutical companies will be under tremendous pressure to create and deliver additional, well differentiated and composite value offerings, beyond physical products, to attract more patients, doctors, healthcare providers and others, in and around related disease areas, for business excellence.

Thus, ability to create and effectively deliver well-differentiated composite value offerings, along with the physical products, will separate men from the boys in the high growth pharmaceutical market of India, in the long run.

This could also possibly create an ‘Alibaba Effect’ for the successful ones in search of pots of gold in the pharmaceutical space of India.

New leadership and managerial skill set requirements:

In the new environment, required skill sets for both the leaders and the managers of Indian pharmaceutical companies will be quite different from what they are today. This will not happen overnight though, but surely will unfold gradually.

New skills:

Leaders and managers with knowledge in just one functional area like, R&D, manufacturing, marketing, regulatory, finance are unlikely to be successful without a broad-based knowledge in the new paradigm. To really understand and handle new types and groups of customers, they will need to break the operational silos and be proficient in other key areas of business too.

These professionals will require ensuring:

• Multi-functional expertise by rotating right people across the key functional areas, as far as possible, even with a stretch.

• Ability to fathom and correctly interpret patients’ clinical benefits against cost incurred to achieve the targeted clinical outcomes, especially in areas of new products.

• Insight into the trend of thought pattern of healthcare providers and other customers or influencers groups.

• Speed in decision-making and delivery…more importantly ability to take ‘first time right’ decisions, which can make or mar an important initiative or a commercial deal.

IPM growing fast, can grow even faster: 

India is now one of fastest growing emerging pharmaceutical markets of the world with 3rd global ranking in the volume of production and 13th in value terms. Domestic turnover of the industry is over US$ 13.1 billion in 2012 (IMS) representing around 1 percent of the global pharmaceutical industry turnover of US$ 956 billion (IMS 2011).

Since 1970, Indian pharmaceutical Industry has rapidly evolved from almost a non-entity to meeting around 20 percent of the global requirements of high quality and low cost generic medicines.

Financial reforms in the health insurance sector and more public investments (2.5% of the GDP) in the healthcare space during the 12th Five Year Plan Period will have significant catalytic effect to further boost the growth of the industry.

Stringent regulations and guidelines of the Government in various areas of pharmaceutical business in India are expected to be in place soon. Ability to ensure system-based rigid organizational compliance to those changing business demands in a sustainable way. will determine the degree of success for the pharma players in India.

One such area, out of many others, is the professional interaction of the Medical Representatives with the doctors and other customer groups.

Require a ‘National Regulatory Standard’ for Medical Representatives in India:

Medical Representatives (MRs) currently form the bedrock of business success, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India. The Job of MRs is a tough and high voltage one, laced with moments of both elation and frustration, while generating prescription demand for selected products in an assigned business territory.

Though educational qualifications, relevant product and disease knowledge, professional conduct and ethical standards vary widely among them, they are usually friendly, mostly wearing a smile even while working in an environment of long and flexible working hours.

There is a huge challenge in India to strike a right balance between the level and quality of sales pitch generated for a brand by the MRs, at times even without being armed with required scientific knowledge and following professional conduct/ ethical standards, while doing their job.

Straying from the right course:

A recent media report highlighted that ‘Indian subsidiary of a Swiss pharma major has run into trouble with some executives allegedly found to be inflating and presenting fabricated sales data for an anti-diabetic drug.’

The report also indicated that officials from mid-management ranks to sales representatives were allegedly involved in those unethical practices. The company has responded to this incidence by saying that the matter is still under investigation.

It is critical for the MRs not just to understand scientific details of the products, their mode of action in disease conditions, precautions and side effects, but also to have a thorough training on how to ‘walk the line’, in order to be fair to the job and be successful.

As MRs are not just salesmen, they must always be properly educated in their respective fields and given opportunities to constantly hone their knowledge and skills to remain competitive. The role of MRs is expected to remain important even in the changing scenario, though with additional specialized skill sets.

Unfortunately, India still does not have a ‘National Code of Conduct or Regulatory Standards’ applicable to the MRs.

Only the clause 4 of ‘The Magic Remedies (Objectionable Advertisement) Act, 1954’ deals with misleading advertisements. It is about time to formulate not only a ‘National Code on Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices’, but also a mandatory ‘Accreditation program’ and transparent qualifying criteria for the MRs for the entire pharmaceutical industry in India, just like many other countries of the world.

‘Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO)’ of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of the Government of India in its website lists the “Laws Pertaining to Manufacture and Sale of Drugs in India”. However, it does not specify any regulation for the MRs nor does it recommend any standard of qualification and training for them, which is so critical for all concerned.

There are currently no comprehensive national standards for educational qualification, knowledge, ethics and professional conduct for the MRs. In the absence of all these, it is difficult to fathom, whether they are receiving right and uniform inputs to appropriately interact with the medical profession and others in a manner that will benefit the patients and at the same remain within the boundary of professional ethics and conduct.

Thus, a ‘National Regulatory Standard’ for MRs, I reckon, is absolutely necessary in India… sooner the better.

Global pharmaceutical players:

Facing a huge patent cliff, global pharmaceutical companies are now fast gaining expertise in the ball game of generic pharmaceuticals, especially in the developing markets of the world.

In the emerging markets like India, where branded generic business dominates, global pharmaceutical players seem to be increasingly finding it lucrative enough for a sustainable all round business growth.

However, to outpace competition, they too will need to capture the changing dynamics of the market and strategize accordingly without moaning much about the business environment in the country.

On the other hand, if majority of Indian pharmaceutical companies, who are not yet used to handling such changes, are caught unaware of this evolving scenario, the tsunami of changes, as they will come, could spell a commercial disaster, endangering even very survival of their business.

Managing transition:

During ensuing phase of transition in India, pharmaceutical companies would require to:

• Clearly identify, acquire and continuously hone the new skill sets to effectively manage the evolving challenge of change.

• Get engaged, having clarity in the strategic content and intent, with the existing public/private healthcare providers and health insurance companies like, Mediclaim, ICICI Lombard, large corporate hospital chains, retail chain chemists and others, proactively.

• Drive the change, instead of waiting for the change to take place.

• Ensure that appropriate balance is maintained between different types of marketing strategies with innovative ways and means.

Conclusion:

It may not be easy for the local Indian players to adapt to the new paradigm sooner and compete with the global players on equal footing, even in the branded generic space, with strategies not innovative enough and lacking required cutting edges.

In my view, those Indian Pharmaceutical companies, who are already global players in their own rights and relatively well versed with the nuances of this new ball game in other markets, will have a significant competitive edge over most other domestic players.

If it happens, the global-local companies will offer a tough competition to the local-global players, especially, in the branded generic space with greater cost efficiency.

So far as other domestic players are concerned, the fast changing environment could throw a new challenge to many, accelerating the consolidation process further within the Indian pharmaceutical industry.

As the new paradigm will herald, catalyzed by the above 10 chain events, there will be a metamorphosis in the way pharmaceutical marketing is practiced in India. A well-differentiated composite value delivery system would then, in all probability, be the name of the winning game.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Patent Conundrum: Ignoring India Will Just Not be Foolhardy, Not An Option Either

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The recent verdict of the Supreme Court against Novartis, upholding the decision of the Indian Patent Office (IPO) against grant of patent to their cancer drug Glivec, based on Section 3(d) of the Indian Patents Act, has caused a flutter and utter discontentment within the global pharmaceutical industry across the world.

However, on this verdict, the Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Pascal Lamy has reportedly opined, “Recent decisions by the courts in India have led to a lot of protest by pharmaceutical companies. But decisions made by an independent judiciary have to be respected as such.”

The above decision on Glivec came close on the heels of IPO’s decision to grant its first ever Compulsory License (CL) to the Indian drug manufacturer Natco, last year, for the kidney cancer drug Nexavar of Bayer.

Interestingly, no member of the World Trade Organization has raised any concern on these issues, as the Head of WTO, Lamy recently confirmed, “No country has objected to India issuing compulsory license or refusing patent for drugs.” He further added, “TRIPS provides flexibilities that allow countries to issue compulsory licenses for patented medicines to address health urgencies.”

That said, simmering unhappiness within innovator companies on various areas of Indian patent laws is indeed quite palpable. Such discontent being expressed by many interested powerful voices is now reverberating in the corridors of power both in India and overseas.

Point and Counterpoint:

Although experts do opine that patent laws of India are well balanced, takes care of public health interest, encourage innovation and discourage evergreening, many global innovator companies think just the opposite. They feel, an appropriate ecosystem to foster innovation does not exist in India and their IP, by and large, is not safe in the country. The moot question is, therefore, ‘Could immediate fallout of this negative perception prompt them to ignore India or even play at a low key in this market?’

Looking at the issue from Indian perspective:

If we take this issue from the product patent perspective, India could probably be impacted in the following two ways:

  1. New innovative products may not be introduced in India
  2. The inflow of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the pharma sector may get seriously restricted.

Let us now examine the possible outcome of each of these steps one at a time.

Will India be deprived of newer innovative drugs?

If the innovator companies decide to ignore India by not launching such products in the country, they may take either of the following two steps:

  1. Avoid filing a patent in India
  2. File a patent but do not launch the product

Keeping the emerging scenario in perspective, it will be extremely challenging for the global players to avoid the current patent regime in India, even if they do not like it. This is mainly because of the following reasons:

1. If an innovator company decides not to file a product patent in India, it will pave the way for Indian companies to introduce copy-cat versions of the same in no time, as it were, at a fractional price in the Indian market.

2. Further, there would also be a possibility of getting these copycat versions exported to the unregulated markets of the world from India at a very low price, causing potential business loss to the innovator companies.

3. If any innovator company files a product patent in India, but does not work the patent within the stipulated period of three years, as provided in the patent law of the country, in that case any Indian company can apply for CL for the same with a high probability of such a request being granted by the Patent Controller. 

A market too attractive to ignore:

India as a pharmaceutical market is quite challenging to ignore, despite its ‘warts and moles’ for various reasons. The story of increasing consumption of healthcare in India, including pharmaceuticals, especially when the country is expected to be one of the top 10 pharmaceutical markets in the world, is too enticing for any global player to ignore, despite unhappiness in various areas of business.

Increasing affordability of the fast growing middle-class population of the country will further drive the growth of this market, which is expected to register a value turnover of US$50 billion by 2020, as estimated by PwC.

PwC report also highlights that a growing and increasingly sophisticated pharmaceutical industry of India is gradually becoming a competitor of global pharma in some key areas, on the one hand and a potential partner in others, as is being witnessed today by many.

Despite urbanization, nearly 70 percent of the total population of India still lives in the rural villages. Untapped potential of the rural markets is expected to provide another boost to the growth momentum of the industry.

Too enticing to exit:

Other ‘Enticing Factors’ for India, in my views, may be considered as follows:

  • A country with 1.13 billion populations and a GDP of US$ 1.8 trillion in 2011 is expected to grow at an average of 8.2 percent in the next five-year period.
  • Public health expenditure to more than double from 1.1 percent of the GDP to 2.5 percent of GDP in the Twelfth Five Year Plan period (2012-17)
  • Government will commence rolling out ‘Universal Health Coverage’ initiative
  • Budget allocation of US$ 5.4 billion announced towards free distribution of essential medicines from government hospitals and health centers.
  • Greater plan outlay announced for NRHM, NUHM and RSBY projects.
  • Rapidly growing more prosperous middle class population of the country.
  • Fast growing domestic generic drug manufacturers who will have increasing penetration in both local and emerging markets.
  • Rising per capita income of the population and relative in-efficiency of the public healthcare systems will encourage private healthcare services of various types and scales to flourish.
  • Expected emergence of a robust health insurance model for all strata of society as the insurance sector is undergoing reform measures.
  • Fast growing Medical Tourism.
  • World-class local outsourcing opportunities for a combo-business model with both patented and branded generic drugs.

Core issues in patent conundrum:

I reckon, besides others, there are three core issues in the patent conundrum in India as follows, other issues can be sorted out by following:

1. ‘Pricing’ strategy of patented products: A large population across the globe believes that high prices of patented products severely restrict their access to many and at the same time increases the cost of healthcare even for the Governments very significantly.

2. To obtain a drug patent in India, passing the test of inventive steps will not just be enough, the invention should also pass the acid test of patentability criteria, to prevent evergreening, as enshrined in the laws of the land. Many other countries are expected to follow India in this area, in course of time. For example, after Philippines and Argentina, South Africa now reportedly plans to overhaul its patent laws by “closing a loophole known as ‘ever-greening’ used by drug companies to extend patent protection and profits”. Moreover, there does not seem to be any possibility to get this law amended by the Indian Parliament now or after the next general election.

3. Probably due to some legal loopholes, already granted patents are often violated without following the prescribed processes of law in terms of pre or post – grant challenges before and after launch of such products. There is a need for the government to plug all such legal loopholes, after taking full stock of the prevailing situation in this area, without further delay.

Some Global CEOs spoke on this issue:

In this context the Global CEO of GSK commented in October 18, 2012 that while intellectual property protection is an important aspect of ensuring that innovation is rewarded, the period of exclusivity in a country should not determine the price of the product. Witty said, ‘At GSK we will continuously strive to defend intellectual property, but more importantly, defend tier pricing to make sure that we have appropriate pricing for the affordability of the country and that’s why, in my personal view, our business in India has been so successful for so long.’

Does all in the global pharma industry share this view? 

Not really. All in the global pharmaceutical industry does not necessarily seem to share the above views of Andrew Witty and believe that to meet the unmet needs of patients, the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) of innovative products must be strongly protected by the governments of all countries putting in place a robust product patent regime and the pricing of such products should not come in the way at all.

The industry also argues that to recover high costs of R&D and manufacturing of such products together with making a modest profit, the innovator companies set a product price, which at times may be perceived as too high for the marginalized section of the society, where government intervention is required more than the innovator companies. Aggressive marketing activities, the industry considers, during the patent life of a product, are essential to gain market access for such drugs to the patients.

In support of the pharmaceutical industry the following argument was put forth in a recent article:

“The underlying goal of every single business is to make money. People single out pharmaceutical companies for making profits, but it’s important to remember that they also create products that save millions of lives.”

How much then to charge for a patented drug? 

While there is no single or only right way to arrive at the price of an IPR protected medicine, how much the pharmaceutical manufacturers will charge for such drugs still remains an important, yet complex and difficult issue to resolve, both locally and globally.

A paper titled, “Pharmaceutical Price Controls in OECD Countries”, published by the US Department of Commerce after examining the drug price regulatory systems of 11 OECD countries concluded that all of them enforce some form of price controls to limit spending on pharmaceuticals. The report also indicated that the reimbursement prices in these countries are often treated as de facto market price. Moreover, some OECD governments regularly cut prices of even those drugs, which are already in the market. 

Should India address ‘Patented Products’ Pricing’ issue with HTA model?

Though some people hate the mechanism of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) to determine price of a patented drug, I reckon, it could be a justifiable and logical answer to price related pharmaceutical patent conundrum in India.

Health Technology Assessment, as many will know, examines the medical, economic, social and ethical implications of the incremental value of a medical technology or a drug in healthcare.

HTA, in that process, will analyze the costs of inputs and the output in terms of their consequences or outcomes. With in-depth understanding of these components, the policy makers decide the value of an intervention much more precisely.

Companies like, Merck, Pfizer and GSK have reportedly imbibed this mechanism to arrive at a value of the invention. National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authorities (NPPA) may well consider this approach for a well judged, scientific and transparent pricing decision mechanism in India, especially for innovative new drugs.

Could local manufacturing be an option?

Considering relatively higher volume sales in India, to bring down the price, the global companies may consider manufacturing their patented products in India with appropriate technology transfer agreements being in place and could even make India as one of their export hubs, as a couple of their counterparts have already initiated.

Accepting the reality responsibly:

In view of the above, the global pharmaceutical players, as experts believe, should take note of the following factors. All these could help, while formulating their India-specific game plan to be successful in the country, without worrying much about invocation of Compulsory License (CL) for not meeting ‘Reasonably Affordable Price’ criterion, as provided in the Patents Act of the country:

  • While respecting IPR and following Doha declaration, the government focus on ‘reasonably affordable drug prices’ will be even sharper due to increasing pressure from the Civil Society, Indian Parliament and also from the Courts of the country triggered by ‘Public Interest Litigations (PIL)’
  • India will continue to remain within the ‘modest-margin’ range for the pharmaceutical business with marketing excellence driven volume turnover.
  • Although innovation will continue to be encouraged with IPR protection, the amended Patents Act of India is ‘Public Health Interest’ oriented, including restrictions on patentability, which, based on early signals, many other countries are expected to follow as we move on.
  • This situation though very challenging for many innovator companies, is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, even under pressure of various “Free Trade Agreements (FTA)”.  

Sectors Attracting Highest FDI Equity inflows:

When one looks at the FDI equity inflow from April 2000 to March 2013 period as follows, it does not appear that FDI inflow in Drugs and Pharmaceuticals had any unusual impact due to ‘Patent Conundrums’ in the country at any time:

Ranks Sector

US$ Million

1. Service Sector

37,151
2. Construction Development:(Township, Housing, Built-up infrastructure)

22,008
3 Telecommunication(Radio paging, Cellular mobile,Basic telephone services)

12,660
4 Computer Software &Hardware

11,671
5 Drugs & Pharmaceuticals

10,309
6 Chemical

8,861
7 Automobile Industry

8,061
8 Power

7,828
9 Metallurgical Industries

7,434
10 Hotel & Tourism

6,589

Further, if we look at the FDI trend of the last three years, the conclusion probably will be similar.

Year

US$ Million.
2010-11

177.96
2011-12

2,704.63
2012-13

1,103.70

(Source: Fact Sheet on Foreign Investments, DIPP, Government of India)

Conclusion:

In search of excellence in India, global pharmaceutical companies will need to find out innovative win-win strategies adapting themselves to the legal requirements for business in the country, instead of trying to get the laws changed.

India, at the same time, should expeditiously address the issue of blatant patent infringements by some Indian players exploiting the legal loopholes and set up fast track courts to resolve all IP related disputes without inordinate delay.

Responsible drug pricing, public health oriented patent regime, technology transfer/local manufacturing of patented products and stringent regulatory requirements in all pharmaceutical industry related areas taking care of patients’ interest, are expected to be the key areas to address in the business models of global pharmaceutical companies for India.

Moreover,it is worth noting that any meaningful and long term FDI in the pharmaceutical industry of India will come mostly through investments in R&D and manufacturing. Such FDI may not be forthcoming without any policy compulsions, like in China. Hence, many believe, the orchestrated bogey of FDI for the pharmaceutical industry in India, other than brownfield acquisitions in the generics space, is just like dangling a carrot, as it were, besides being blatantly illusive.

Even with all these, India will continue to remain too lucrative a pharmaceutical market to ignore by any. Thus, I reckon, despite a high decibel patent conundrum, any thought to ignore or even be indifferent to Indian pharmaceutical market by any global player could well be foolhardy.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.