A Great News! But…Would This ‘Golden Goose’ Lay Golden Eggs?

Posted on December 15, 2014 by Tapan Ray

On December 9, 2014, international media flashed across the world a great news item from the Indian pharma industry:

“The first biosimilar of the world’s top-selling medicine Humira (adalimumab) of AbbVie has been launched in India by Zydus Cadila.”

This exhilarating news has undoubtedly got frozen in time flagging a well-cherished moment of pride for the Indian pharmaceutical industry. Along side, taking note of many contemporary factors in this area, a lurking apprehension too does creep in. It raises an awkward and uncomfortable question – would this ‘Golden Goose” born out of a laudable ‘reverse engineering’ effort be able to lay ‘Golden Eggs’, signaling its global commercial success for the company?

In this article, I shall try to dwell on on this important issue.

In one my earlier blog posts of August 25, 2014 titled, “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns”, I discussed another related concern in this area.

Born a ‘Golden Goose’:

Just to recapitulate, the original product Humira (Adalimumab) of Abbvie, a fully human anti-TNF alpha monoclonal antibody was first globally approved for marketing in 2002. Since then Humira has emerged as the most preferred therapy to reduce the signs and symptoms of patients suffering from moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, moderate to severe polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, moderate to severe Crohn’s disease and moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. However, Humira is not available in the Indian market, at present.

Zydus Cadila has announced that its biosimilar version of Humira (Adalimumab), has been approved by the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) and will be marketed under the brand name ‘Exemptia’ for the treatment of autoimmune disorders as indicated for Humira.

As claimed by the company, ‘Exemptia’ is a ‘fingerprint match’ with the original drug Humira in terms of purity, safety and potency. Zydus Cadila has also stated that the novel non-infringing process for Adalimumab and a novel non-infringing formulation have been researched, developed and produced by scientists in its own Research Centre.

With this the world took note of the ‘Golden Goose’, born out of brilliant ‘Reverse Engineering’ in India. However, the apprehension of many continued to linger: Would this ‘Golden Goose’ be able to lay ‘Golden Eggs’?

The product and the price:

According to an estimate, over 12 million patients in India suffer from the above chronic conditions of autoimmune disorders, which progressively deteriorate and lead to lifelong pain and in some cases, even disability. To treat these indications, Exemptia is recommended as a 40 mg subcutaneous injection once every alternate week. Patients normally would have to take the treatment for six months.

Media reports indicate that ‘Exemptia’ of Zydus Cadila will be priced in India equivalent to US$ 200 a vial against Humira price in the United States of US$ 1,000. Initial overall reaction for this local price does not seem to be quite favorable for India.

The global market:

A recent report from Thomson Reuters indicates, as blockbuster drugs with sales turnover of around US$100 billion lose patent protection, the global biosimilars market is expected to grow around US$ 25 billion by the end of the decade.

According to a 2013 report of the credit rating agency Fitch, eight of the current 20 top-selling global pharmaceuticals are biologics that will face patent expiry by 2020.

EvaluatePharma reported that the current the anti-rheumatics market makes up the second largest treatment area by sales, with worldwide revenues of US$ 41.1 billion, closely behind the oncology therapy area, which registered sales of US$68 billion in 2012 with a high growth rate.

The report also states, despite biosimilar entry Anti-rheumatics segment is expected to record a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4 percent with a turnover of around S$52.1 billion in 2018.

The local potential:

Over the last several years, China and India have been emerging as the promising destinations for international outsourcing of biopharmaceutical manufacturing. In the recent times, China and India are reportedly showing promises to become the industry’s top potential destinations for offshoring over the next five years, ahead of traditional bio manufacturing hubs in the US and Western Europe.

More than 40 biosimilar products are now available in the Indian market. Over 10 pharma players are competing in this area with around 15 epoetin, 8 G-CSF and 4 insulin “biosimilars”, besides a few others.

Although India has the second largest USFDA approved drug manufacturing plants next to the United States, none of the products manufactured in these facilities can possibly be considered as “true biosimilars”.

Humira expected to remain strong:

EvaluatePharma also forecasts that Humira of AbbVie would continue to remain the best selling drug of the world at least till 2018 with sales of US$12.8 billion, despite its US patent expiry in 2016.

Moreover, to succeed Humira that will go off patent between end 2016 and 2018 (Europe), AbbVie reportedly has seven new drugs in clinical development for Rheumatoid Arthritis. These patented new drugs could also significantly cannibalize the sales of Humira.

Physicians’ attitude towards biosimilars:

According to an October 2014 Report of IMS Institute from Europe’s perspective, within each country’s health system, physicians display a range of attitudes and behaviors that influence their prescribing of biosimilars.

IMS observed three broad segments of prescribers as follows:

Conservative prescribers: These doctors tend to be late adopters of new technologies, are more likely to follow published clinical treatment guidelines, and may not be aware of or educated on the availability of potential use of biosimilars.

Open-minded prescribers: This archetype includes physicians who tend to be the most responsive to new information about treatment options, particularly where experience and knowledge of biologics may be low and educational program can be effective in impacting usage.

Enterprising prescribers: This segment of prescribers is most likely to search out information from all sources, and be open to trying different options for patient care including biosimilars as well as innovative treatments.

In addition to these archetypes, the report states, physicians’ attitudes and prescribing behavior may also be influenced or determined by prescribing guidelines, if any, the use of prescribing incentives, as well as the use of promotional activities by either originator or biosimilar manufacturers.

The US biosimilar challenge:

According to reports, despite two pharma players filing biosimilar applications at the USFDA, there are still many issues to be sorted out in this space by the drug regulator of the country.

Though an interchangeable biosimilar in the United States still appears to be several years away, there are initiatives in some American states to restrict interchangeable biosimilar for substitution against the reference product.

Moreover, USFDA’s draft guidance on clinical pharmacology of May 2014 has invited strong adverse comments from the innovator companies, lobby groups and the industry associations.

However, just in the last week, both the innovator companies and biosimilar manufacturers have reportedly agreed to support state legislation that allows pharmacies to automatically substitute biosimilars for corresponding branded biologics. But pharmacies must give prescribers a heads up afterward “within a reasonable time.”

For biosimilars makers, it’s a big improvement on the alternative, as the biotech developers wanted to require pharmacists to check with doctors before making the switch.

That said, the USFDA is yet to determine exactly how to classify biosimilars and their “reference products” as interchangeable. This guidance for classification would be necessary for the above mentioned pharmacy switches. This guidance is important especially for the statutory language, which dictates that interchangeability is proven for “any given patient”. This could also be construed as requiring studies in all the approved indications for a brand name biologic, i.e. Humira has around five different indications.

Thus, the path ahead still remains challenging for the biosimilar players in the United States, and more so for the Indian Companies, as compared to other global pharma majors with deep pockets.

Several other Humira biosimilars under development too:

As indicated earlier, the US and Europe patents of Humira with worldwide sales of US$ 11.02 billion in 2013 would expire by end 2016 and 2018, respectively. Thus, the product has become among the most sought-after biosimilar target prototypes for many pharma and biotech companies across the world.

The global biotech major Amgen has already indicated that its ABP 501 biosimilar has shown comparable efficacy and safety to Humira (adalimumab) in a late-stage trial in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis after treatment duration of 16 weeks. The product, reportedly, has also matched Humira in stimulating immune response in patients.

Experts believe, Amgen could be in a position to compete directly with Humira when it loses patent protection, if similar results are obtained in the second phase III trial.

Moreover, according to available reports, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sandoz (Novartis) and Coherus are also progressing well with the development of Humira biosimilars.

Zydus Cadila expects that in 2019 it would be ready to launch the biosimilar of Humira (Adalimumab) in the United States.

Marketing challenges for biosimilars:

Today, the global biosimilars market is indeed in a nascent stage, even for the Indian players.

For successful commercialization of biosimilars, I envisage, a well-crafted hybrid marketing-model of small molecule generics on the one hand and large molecule biologics of the originators’ on the other would be appropriate, in the years ahead.

In the early marketing phase, biosimilar marketers are expected to follow the same branding, communication and detailing strategies of the originators, which ultimately would transform into a generic matrix as more players chip in with the price competition intensifying.

Unlike small molecule generics, affordable price of a biosimilar would be just one of the many critical considerations for its commercial success in the biologics market.

Sustained efforts and initiatives to allay safety concerns with biosimilars among both the doctors and also the patients would be a dire necessity. Providing in-depth medical, technical and domain knowledge to the sales team should never be compromised, though these would require additional initial investments. Post marketing surveillance or pharmacovigilance for biosimilars must be ongoing, even in India. Here too, Indian players do not seem to be very strong, as yet.

Thus, unlike small molecule generics, marketing a large molecule biosimilar would require clear, razor sharp and focused strategies across the value chain to unlock its true potential. Crafting impactful value propositions, avoiding complexities, for each stakeholder, would decide the commercial fate of the product.

‘Made in India’ issue for pharma needs to be addressed expeditiously:

High credibility clinical trial data and manufacturing quality standards would also play a decisive role, especially for India made biosimilars.

This is mainly due to widespread reports of frequent USFDA allegations related to falsification and doctoring of manufacturing data in several manufacturing plants of India.

Ethical and quality issues for drugs made in India, such as these, assumed even greater dimension, as the regulators in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg reportedly suspended marketing approval for 25 drugs over the genuineness of clinical trial data from India’s GVK Biosciences. This is yet another blow to ‘Made in India’ image for medicines, which has arrested the global attention, for all the wrong reasons, just the last week.

Conclusion:

Considering all the above points, let me now try to make a fair personal guess on whether or not the ‘Golden Goose’ would be successful enough to lay ‘Golden Eggs’, as required by the company.

Firstly, in the Indian perspective, the key point that strikes me is the cost of a treatment course with ‘Exemptia’ per patient in the country. On a rough calculation, it comes around Rs. 1,50,000 per course/per patient. This appears rather high according to the income level of an average Indian.

However, Zydus Cadila expects sales between Rs.1 billion (US$16.16 million) and 2 billion for ‘Exemptia’ only from the Indian market.

I reckon, with relatively high per course treatment cost with Exemptia, it may be quite challenging for the company to achieve this goal in the domestic market.

Thus, the global success of this biosimilar brand would mainly depend on its degree of success in the United States and Europe, post patent expiry of Humira.

Going by the possible availability of other Humira biosimilars from manufacturers with robust global marketing muscle, skill sets, experience and other wherewithal, the path of global success for Exemptia of Zydus Cadila, if the company decides to fly solo, appears to be strewn with many odds.

I would now stick my neck out to zero in with specificity in this area, while envisaging the possible future scenario.

Considering the evolving macro scenario together with the commercial success requirements in this space, I reckon, despite presence of several possible competitors of Humira biosimilars, including one from Zydus Cadila, the biotech domain expertise of Amgen, fuelled by its marketing muscle, would in all probability make its ABP 501 biosimilar the toughest competitor to Humira after its patent expiry in the US and Europe…and then…why doesn’t it try to succeed in India too?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Does Patent Expiry Matter Less For Difficult To Copy Drugs?

Posted on September 8, 2014 by Tapan Ray

“Patent expiry matters much less for difficult to copy drugs”.

Not so long ago, this is what many used to believe in the pharma industry. However, looking at the current trend involving the tech savvy generic players, it appears, gone are those days even for the home grown companies in India. As we witness today, a number of global generic players, including some from India, are overcoming the tough challenge of technological barrier of the original drugs with technology, boldly and squarely, and that too with reasonably good speed.

A global CEO felt quite the same:

Possibly encouraged by this commercial dogma, the Chief Executive of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Sir Andrew Witty reportedly felt in not too distant past that his company’s blockbuster drug Advair/Seretide, used for the treatment of asthma, would continue to remain a major product, despite losing US patent in end 2010. Witty thought so considering the intricate technology involved in making its high tech inhalation drug delivery system with exacting precision.

Technology based entry barrier:

Although, Advair/Seretide is a respiratory inhalation drug, it is not quite like a typical aerosol inhaler consisting of a pressurized canister filled with liquid medicine formulation. In such system, as the canister is compressed, the liquid inside comes out as a spray that is breathable in an amount as required for desirable clinical efficacy for the patients.

With the application of complex technology, Advair/Seretide was formulated not as a liquid, but as pre-determined fixed dose combination of powders that patients inhale into their respiratory tracts with a device called ‘Diskus’, which involves a complex and difficult to copy inhaler technology with a long patent life.

This precision technology was expected to create the requisite entry barrier for generic equivalents of this important medicine.

“Diskus” patent to continue:

It is important to note, though Advair/Seretide had gone off patent in end 2010, the patent protection for the “Diskus” device that dispenses the powder version of the fixed dose drugs combination, continues till 2016. For the inhaler device that dispenses the aerosol version of the same drugs, the patent remains valid until 2025.

New USFDA guidance:

Keeping these factors in mind, the USFDA in its latest guidance has clearly enunciated the characteristics that an inhaler should have, including a similar size and shape to Diskus. This new USFDA guidance for inhaled drugs, like Advair/Seretide, now requires only “relatively basic” preclinical tests and a short clinical trial.

Many believe that this new guidance is mainly to ensure that other generic devices also qualify for the GSK’s asthma drug combo, after its patent expiry.

Nevertheless a challenging task:

Despite this new USFDA guidance for inhaled drugs, some large generic manufacturers apprehended, even way back in 2010, that they doubt whether it will be possible for them to adequately replicate Advair/Seretide to meet the stringent “substitution” requirements of the USFDA on generics. This is exactly what Witty had envisaged earlier.

Almost two years after its patent expiry, in October 2012, the world’s largest generic drug maker Teva also announced that the company does not expect to see true substitutes for Advair/Seretide before 2018.

No immediate sales impact post-patent expiry:

As a result, in 2012, even a couple of years after its patent expiry, Advair/Seretide could successfully weather the impending storm, though GSK reported a lackluster overall business performance. The brand at that time was virtually immune to substitution threats from generic equivalents. The key reason being, as stated above, much unlike a patented chemical drug substance, the ‘Diskus’ system of the GSK inhaler is a hell of a task to copy by meeting the regulatory requirements of substitution.

In 2013, close to three years after its patent expiry, Advair/Seretide ranked fourth within the top 10 global best-selling drugs of that year, clocking annual revenue of US $8.25 billion.

The first competition:

In the midst of all these, the first generic equivalent of Advair/Serevent with a new inhalation device, carrying a name AirFluSal Forspiro from the Sandoz unit of Novartis, started warming up to obtain regulatory approval from several countries within the European Union (EU).

The product was first approved in Denmark on December, 2013 with subsequent marketing authorizations received in Germany, Sweden, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Norway.

The heat started being felt now:

The overall position of the brand started changing thereafter. According to published reports, sales trend of Advair/Seretide in Europe and other markets are on the decline in 2014. In Europe, the drop was around 3 percent and in the US around 19 percent in the last quarter, due to a combined impact of many factors.

According to Bloomberg, the sales of Advair/Seretide are expected to drop from US$8.25 billion in 2013 to US$5.9 billion in 2016 with the entry of generics.

A large and growing market to invest into:

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in every 10 seconds, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) that includes conditions such as chronic bronchitis and emphysema kills one person globally. It is expected to be the third leading cause of death worldwide by 2030. However, though more number of people suffers from asthma globally, its mortality rate is still much less, WHO says.

Bloomberg estimates that COPD market, including asthma, is expected to reach over US$30 billion by 2018.

Cipla came next crossing the ‘technology hurdle’:

Though the leader in the global generic market – Teva, expressed its inability to introduce the generic version of Advair/Seretide before 2018, this month, the Indian pharma major Cipla introduced its version of the product in two European countries, just next to Novartis. Consequently, Cipla demonstrated its ability to overcome the technological hurdle of the product faster than most others and mastering the intricate NDDS technology in record time, with precision.

The Cipla product is named as ‘Serroflo’ in Germany and ‘Salmeterol/Fluticasone Cipla’ in Sweden. As reported in the media quoting Cipla Chairman Dr. Yusuf Hamied, the product has also been launched in Croatia. By now, Cipla has obtained regulatory approvals of this product in 10 countries in total, with an approval pending in the GSK’s own domestic turf, the United Kingdom (UK). Other country-wise launches in Europe would probably take place much before the end of 2014, according to Dr. Hamied.

The product is expected to be launched in the US in the next three to four year’s time, though one media report mentioned about its 2015 launch in that market. Dr. Hamied also said that his company is now planning its first-ever manufacturing plant in America, which might focus on producing HIV medicines.

On a conservative estimate, the market analysts expect Cipla to generate around US$50 million in sales from the EU markets by 2016 and around US$110 million by 2018, as the company gains increasing market access with not more than 4-5 generic competitors competing in this segment.

Be that as it may, getting regulatory approval for launch of a generic version of Advair/Seretide in the regulated markets, by itself, is a huge achievement of technological prowess that Cipla has demonstrated, yet again.

Not too many generic competition expected:

Because of high quality technological requirements to develop a replaceable generic version of the GSK product, not too much competition is expected in this segment.

Thus far, another global generic drug major Mylan is expected to file for a generic version of Advair/Seretide in the US by the third quarter of 2015 for a 2016 launch. Besides Cipla and Novartis, Mylan, Teva and Actavis are expected come out with the generic version of this drug.

Opportunities in ‘difficult to copy’ drugs:

According to a recent ‘RnR Market Research Report’, over 1,400 drugs with New Drug Delivery System (NDDS) have since been approved globally. This includes inhalation devices too.

The oral drugs contribute the largest share of the overall NDDS market with over 52 percent of the total pie. This segment is expected to attain a turnover of over US$90 billion by 2016 at a CAGR of 11 percent. The injectable new drug delivery market is expected to reach a turnover of over US $29billion by 2015, according to this report.

I have deliberated this subject in one of my earlier blog posts titled. “Moving Up The Generic Pharma Value Chain”.

Another high tech area – biosimilar drugs:

As the high priced biologic drugs of the innovator companies go off patent, large molecule biosimilar drugs, involving high technology, would emerge as another lucrative growth opportunity for the generic players having requisite wherewithal.

Recombinant vaccines, erythropoietin, recombinant insulin, monoclonal antibody, interferon alpha, granulocyte cell stimulating factor like products are now being manufactured by a number of domestic biotech companies. Some of the Indian companies that have already entered into the biosimilar segment are Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Lupin, Biocon, Panacea Biotech, Wockhardt, Glenmark, Emcure, Bharat Biotech, Serum Institute, Hetero, Intas and Reliance Life Sciences, besides others.

The ultimate objective of all these Indian companies is to get regulatory approval of their respective biosimilar products in the US and the EU either on their own or through collaborative initiatives.

Overall improvement in the quality of ANDA filings:

In the last few years, overall quality of ANDA filings of the domestic Indian pharma players has also improved significantly. Their regulatory filing schedules now include many complex molecules, injectibles, oral contraceptives, ophthalmic preparations, inhalers/other drug delivery systems and biosimilars, beside Para IV/FTFs. All these are now contributing a growing share in their new product initiatives for the regulated markets.

Conclusion:

In the largest pharma market of the world – the United States, global generic companies are increasingly facing cutthroat price competition with steep price erosion, registering mixed figures of business performance and growth.

However, a new trend is fast emerging. Even when global innovator companies are including increasing number of difficult to copy medicines in their product portfolio, some pharma players are reaping a rich harvest by moving up the value chain with the generic versions of those products, post patent expiry. These copycats offer much higher margin than non-differentiated generics.

Some Indian generic companies too have started focusing on building value added, difficult to manufacture, and technology intensive generic product portfolios in various therapy areas. DRL is reportedly all set to take its complex generic drug Fondaparinux sodium injection to Canada and two other emerging markets.

Those Indian pharma companies, which would be able to develop a robust product portfolio of complex generics and other differentiated formulations for the global market, would now be much better placed in positioning themselves significantly ahead of the rest, both in terms of top and the bottom line performance.

The myth, as epitomized in the good old saying, “Patent expiry matters less for difficult to copy drugs”, seems to be partly true in delaying entry of generics immediately after the end of the monopoly period, at least, for now. However, I reckon, this gap of delay would eventually get much reduced, if not eliminated altogether, as we move on. Armed with cutting edge technology Cipla has almost busted the myth, as it came close second to Novartis with the launch of a complex generic equivalent of Advair/Seretide in the EU and other markets.

Pharma majors of the country, such as, DRL, Cipla, Lupin and Biocon, to name a few, are taking great strides, setting examples for many others to emulate and excel in this area. The groundswell has already begun for a long haul global journey of the Indian pharma into the El Dorado of high tech generics fetching higher rewards.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns

Posted on August 25, 2014 by Tapan Ray

With the patent expiry of exorbitantly priced biologic medicines, introduction of biosimilar drugs are expected to improve their access to millions of patients across the world, saving billions of dollars in healthcare costs in the subsequent years. According to an article published in Forbes, it is estimated that the potential savings in the United States alone from just 11 biosimilar drugs over a period ranging from 2014 to 2024 could easily be U$250 billion.

However, the flip side of this much awaited development would make commensurate dent on the sales performance of original brand name biologics, now being marketed by the global pharma majors armed with patent monopoly rights.

Innovating hurdles to negate the impact:

Facing this stark reality, global innovators of biotech drugs allegedly want to fast germinate a strong apprehension in the minds of all concerned on the safety and replaceability of biosimilar drugs. Consequently, this would severely restrict the usage of this new class of products, sacrificing patients’ health interest.

To translate this grand plan into reality, garnering additional support from ten medical societies and a physicians’ group, the global players, which mostly hold various patents on biologics, reportedly urged the USFDA to require biosimilars to have distinct names from the original biologics, on the pretext that different names would make it easier for prescribers to distinguish between medicines that “may differ slightly” and also track adverse events and side effect reports that appear in patient records.

However, other stakeholders have negated this move, which is predominantly to make sure that no substitution of high priced original biologics takes place with the cheaper versions of equivalent biosimilars to save on drug costs.

Intense lobbying to push the envelope:

Interestingly, this intense lobbying initiative of big pharma to assign a distinct or different name for biosimilar drugs, if accepted by the USFDA, would provide a clear and cutting-edge commercial advantage to the concerned pharma and biotech majors, even much after their respective biologic drugs go off patent.

Thus, the above allegedly concerted move does not surprise many.

Mounting protests against industry move:

Biosimilar drug makers, on the other hand, have suggested to the USFDA to make biosimilars fall under the same International Non-Proprietary Name (INN) system, like all generic prescription drugs. They believe that new names would create confusion and the physicians and pharmacists may face difficulties in ascertaining whether biosimilar drugs serve the same purpose with similar dosing and regimens.

The protest seems to have a snowballing effect. In July 2014, by a letter to the Commissioner Hamburg of USFDA, different groups representing pharmacy, labor unions, health insurance plans and others, have reportedly urged her not to go for different INNs for the original biologic and a biosimilar drug, for the same reason as cited above. The letter reinforces that the industry move, if accepted by the USFDA could increase the possibility of medication errors, besides adversely affecting the substitution required to bring down overall health care costs for high priced specialized biologics, thereby slowing down the uptake of biosimilars significantly.

Global pharma investors also raising voices in support of biosimilars:

Another similar and major development followed soon. A letter titled, “Investor Statement on Board Oversight of Biosimilar Issues”, written by a group of 19 institutional investors that manages about US$430 billion in assets, to the boards of several big pharma and biotech companies, flagged that some pharma majors have been scandalizing the safety concerns of biosimilar drugs. This is happening despite the fact that this class of drugs already has a well-established track record in Europe.

They emphasize that recent actions taken by some big pharma companies could raise concerns on the overall acceptance of biosimilar drugs, which would forestall any projected savings on that subject. They also reportedly expressed serious concern that shareholder interests could be adversely affected, if the pharma and biotech players pursue those policies that undermine corporate transparency and medical innovation.

The letter underscores, “Companies seeking to downplay the patient safety record of European biosimilars have also challenged the capacity of the FDA to promulgate rules and determine when biosimilars may be substituted for biologics.”

Among other points, the letter reiterates:

Though the important role of biologics in treating cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, anemia, multiple sclerosis and many other conditions is well recognized, the costs of these medicines are on an unsustainable trajectory, with some biologics costing as much 22 times more than other drugs. This critical issue seriously impedes patients’ access to biologics, as well as, acceptance by providers and insurance companies.

Biosimilars hold the promise of lowering costs of treating conditions for which biologics are indicated. At the same time, the recent adoption of a regulatory pathway to approval of biosimilars in the US market and the continued growth of biosimilars in the European Union, Japan, Canada, Australia and South Korea, pose a formidable business challenge for the companies that market patented biologic medicines.

Financial experts project that biosimilars too have the potential for significant market penetration and attractive returns on investments.

Assigning different INN would communicate to providers that the biosimilar is less effective, prompting them not to prescribe this class of medicines and making it difficult for the pharmacists to dispense too. Besides, different names could lead to prescribing errors.

In short, the boards of directors of the pharma and biotech majors were urged by these investors to use the following principles to guide their decision-making related to biosimilars:

- Policy and educational information provided on biosimilars should be balanced, accurate and informed by the patient safety experience of biosimilars in the European Union and other biosimilar drug markets.

- Lobbying expenditures for federal and state activities related to biosimilars should be fully disclosed and the boards should ensure that political activities are aligned with the interests of investors and other stakeholders.

- Key information about any partnership or business deal related to biosimilars should be fully disclosed to investors, including information about the value, terms and duration of the deal.

The WHO proposal:

In this context it is worth recapitulating, the World Health Organization (WHO) that oversees the global INN system has held a number of meetings to resolve this issue. The WHO proposal suggests that the current system for choosing INNs to remain unchanged, but that a four-letter code would be attached at the end of every drug name. However, individual regulatory agencies in each country could choose whether to adopt such coding or not.

Let us wait to see what really pans out of this flexible WHO proposal on the subject.

Biosimilars go through stringent regulatory review:

It is important to note that the drug regulators carefully review biosimilars before giving marketing approval for any market, as these drugs must prove to be highly similar without any clinically meaningful differences from the original biologic molecules. The interchangeability between biosimilars and the original biologics must also be unquestionably demonstrated to be qualified for being substitutable at the pharmacy level without the need for intervention by a physician.

Thus, there does not seem to be any basis for different INN, other than to severely restrict competition from biosimilars.

12-year data exclusivity period for biologics – another hurdle created earlier:

Another barrier to early introduction of cheaper biosimilar drugs in the United States is the 12-year data exclusivity period for biologics.

On this issue GPhA – the generic drug makers’ group in the United States reportedly issued a statement, criticizing a paper of Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO), saying:

“Market exclusivity acts as an absolute shield to their weak patents. Thus, from a practical perspective, extending market exclusivity beyond the Hatch-Waxman period would block the introduction of generic competition for almost 20 years, derailing any potential cost savings by Americans.”

The market potential of biosimilars:

A new report by Allied Market Research estimates that the global biosimilars market would reach US$35 billion by 2020 from the estimated US$1.3 billion in 2013. During the next four years, over 10 blockbuster biologic drugs clocking aggregated annual sales turnover of US $60 billion would go off patent in the United States and in Europe. Humira – a US$10 billion drug of Abbvie that loses patent protection in 2016 is at the top of list.

In tandem, facilitation of regulatory pathways of marketing approval for this class of drugs in many developed markets is expected to drive its growth momentum through greater market penetration and access.

Asia Pacific region is likely to emerge as the leader in the biosimilar drugs market, primarily due to heightened interest and activity of the local players. Collaboration between Mylan and Biocon to commercialize biosimilar version of trastuzumab of Roche in India and the approval of first biosimilar version of monoclonal antibody drug by Hospira in Europe are the encouraging indications.

High growth oncology and autoimmune disease areas are expected to attract more biosimilars developers, as many such biologics would go off patent during 2014 to 2019 period.

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and erythropoietin would possibly be key to the growth drivers. Similarly, follitropins, interferons, and insulin biosimilars would emerge as high potential product segments over a period of time.

As we know, among the developed markets, Europe was the first to draft guidelines for approval of biosimilars in 2006. Consequently, the first biosimilars version of Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) was introduced in the European Union under the regulatory guidance of European Medical Agency (EMA) in 2008. At present, there are three biosimilar versions of G-CSF available in the European market. Insulin biosimilars also show a good potential for the future.

India:

India is now well poised to encash on this opportunity, which I had deliberated in one of my earlier blog post titled, “Moving Up The Generic Pharma Value Chain”.

Current global usage of biosimilars:

Though regulatory pathways for biosimilar drugs are now in place in the United States, no biosimilar has yet been approved there. However, the US drug regulator has for the first time accepted an application for the approval of a biosimilar version of Neupogen (Filgrastim) of Amgen, which treats patients with low white blood cell counts. Sandoz has already been selling the biosimilar version of this drug in more than 40 countries outside the US.

According to the research organization ‘Pharmaceutical Product Development’, as on March 2013, at least 11 countries and the European Union (EU) approve, regulate and allow clinical trials of biosimilars. As of February 2012, the EU has approved at least 14 biosimilar medicines. The following table shows these countries by region:

Region	Countries
North America	Canada
Europe	E.U. (including U.K.)
Asia and Pacific	China, India, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan
Central and South America	Argentina, Brazil, Mexico
Eastern Europe	Russia, Turkey

Source: Pharmaceutical Product Development

Conclusion:

With the opening up of the United States for biosimilar drugs, the entire product class is expected to be catapulted to a high growth trajectory, provided of course no more allegedly concerted attempts are made to create regulatory hurdles on its path, as we move on. This is mainly because around 46 percent of the world biologic market as on 2010 was in the United States.

However, intense lobbying and power play against biosimilar or interchangeable biologics, allegedly sponsored by the big pharma, are acting as a barrier to this much awaited development solely to benefit the patients. Such activities also undermine attractiveness of investing in safer and more affordable interchangeable biologics.

It is indeed intriguing that all these are happening, despite the fact that the regulatory approval standards for biosimilars are very stringent, as each of these drugs:

Must be highly similar to the reference product
Cannot have clinically meaningful differences from the original ones
Must perform the same in any given patient
Would have the same risk associated with switching as the reference product

Thus, scandalizing biosimilar drugs by raising self-serving ‘safety concerns’ in an orchestrated manner, just to extend product life cycles of original biologics even beyond patent expiries, is indeed a very unfortunate development. In this process, the vested interests are creating a great commercial uncertainty for this new class of medicines in the global scenario.

Be that as it may, all these seemingly well synchronized moves against biosimilars, solely to protect business interest, pooh-poohing patients’ health interests, have once again caste a dark shadow on not so enviable image of the big pharma…without even an iota of doubt.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Just Born A Pharma Goliath: Would India Be Impacted?

Posted on March 3, 2014 by Tapan Ray

Just born a potential pharma Goliath, as Actavis – the Dublin-based one of the largest global generic drug makers, in its biggest ever purchase, acquires New York based R&D based pharma major – Forest Laboratories, for a whopping US$ 25 billion.

It is worth noting that as on date Actavis has grown mainly through Mergers and Acquisition (M&A) route. In 2012, the company took over American generic drug major Watson Pharma for €4.5 bn and then Ireland’s Warner Chilcott, marketing patented drugs for gastrointestinal and urological conditions, for US $8.5 bn. Post buy out of Forest Laboratories, Actavis would have annual sales turnover of US$15 bn.

So far, mostly R&D based Pharma players acquired generic drug makers:

This acquisition is interesting. The reason being, since the last few years, mostly research based global pharmaceutical companies are taking over generic pharma players in the emerging markets with a reasonable speed. To cite a few examples:

In June, 2010, British drug major GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced acquisition of ‘Phoenix’, a leading Argentine pharmaceutical company focused on the development, manufacturing and marketing of branded generic products, for a cash consideration of around US $253 million. With this acquisition, GSK planned to accelerate its business growth in Argentina and the Latin American region.

Similarly, Paris based Sanofi with the acquisition of Zentiva, became an important player in the European generic drug market. Zentiva, is also a leading generic player in the Czech, Turkish, Romanian, Polish, Slovak and Russian markets, besides the Central and Eastern European region. In addition to Zentiva, in the same year 2009, Sanofi also acquired other two important generic players, Medley in Brazil and Kendrick in Mexico.

In February 2014, the German Drug major Bayer reportedly announced that it would buy Dihon Pharmaceutical Group Co of China, expanding the German company’s footprint in a key growth country. Dihon’s products are also sold in Nigeria, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia. Privately held Dihon specializes in ‘Over-The-Counter (OTC)’ and herbal ‘Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)’ products.

Back home, MNCs acquired the following generic companies from 2006 to 2011:

Year	Indian Companies	Multinational Companies	Value ($Mn)	Type of Deal
2006	Matrix Labs	Mylan	736	Acquisition
2008	Ranbaxy Labs	Daiichi Sankyo	4,600	Acquisition
	Dabur Pharma	Fresenius Kabi	219	Acquisition
2009	Shantha Biotech	Sanofi-aventis	783	Acquisition
2010	Orchid Chemicals	Hospira	400	Acquisition
	Piramal Healthcare	Abbott	3,720	Acquisition
	Paras Pharma	Reckitt Benckiser	726	Acquisition
2011	Universal Medicare	Sanofi	110	Acquisition
2013	Mylan	Agila Specialities	1750	Acquisition

Key drivers for generic acquisition:

From 2012 to 2015 patented drugs with a combined turnover of US$ 183 billion have already faced or would face intense generic competition resulting in, as high as, around 90 percent price erosion for those products. It is not just patent expirations that are exerting pressure on innovator companies. Added to this, a relatively weak R&D pipeline and increasing focus of various governments to reduce healthcare costs, have forced many research based global pharma players to imbibe the inorganic growth strategy in the generic space to quickly grab a sizable share of this large and fast growing market, especially in the emerging economies of the world.

Actavis acquisition is different:

In the above light Actavis’s acquisition of Forest Laboratories is quite different. Here, instead of a predominantly research-based company’s acquiring a generic player, a basically generic drug major has bought a research based global pharmaceutical player.

Interestingly, Forest Laboratories follows a unique R&D model. It is focused on, instead of discovering on its own, identifying strong medically relevant product candidates and guiding them through the complex development lifecycle, from proof-of-concept through post-marketing.

Strong global portfolio of both generic and patented drugs:

Post buy out, Actavis would have a strong combo-portfolio of generic drugs together with a relatively robust line-up of a diverse range of patented products, spanning across therapy areas such as Anti-Infective, Respiratory, Cardiovascular, Central Nervous System, Gastrointestinal, Obstetrics and Pain Management and that too not just in the emerging markets, but globally, unlike many others.

In addition, acquisition of Forest Laboratories would also provide Actavis access to former’s large US sales teams, transforming the merged entity a formidable force to reckon with in the topmost pharmaceutical market of the world, besides many others.

An intriguing recent decision:

That said, it is interesting to note that in January 2014, Actavis, then the second-biggest generic drug maker by market capitalization, announced that it would quit China as “It is not a business friendly environment… China is just too risky”. This is indeed intriguing, because by 2015, China’s generic market is expected to be close to US$ 82 billion.

Be that as it may, post acquisition Actavis would be in a position to offer all its customers in all the markets of the world a rainbow of products from patented to generics, carving out a critical strategic advantage for itself in the global pharmaceutical market.

Impact in India:

The question now boils down to what would be the impact of the just born Goliath on the domestic pharmaceutical industry in India.

Differentiated generic business:

The generic drugs market is usually classified as simple generics, super-generics and biosimilars. To differentiate, by adding value in the generic medicines, many domestic players are gradually entering into the ‘Super Generic’ and ‘biosimilar’ category of drugs. For example, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories has reportedly chosen to go for a difficult to copy drug formulation with its blood-thinner Fondaparinux. Sun Pharma, on the other hand, is focusing on innovative delivery platforms for its ophthalmic drugs and oral contraceptives. Cadila is looking at newer drug delivery modes for its painkiller Diclofenac. So is Lupin in other areas. In the biosimilar arena, Biocon has already developed Trastuzumab formulation of Roche. Moreover, the biosimilar business of Dr Reddy’s Laboratories continues with its impressive growth trend, besides many other Indian players in the same fray.

Simultaneously, India is improving its effectiveness in ‘Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) space. As we have recently witnessed in India the alliances between Merck & Co and Cipla and earlier with Sun Pharma. Even prior to that, collaborative agreements of Pfizer with Aurobindo Pharma; GSK with Dr Reddy’s Laboratories; Abbott India with Cadila and many more, would vindicate this point.

Merck Serono of Germany also announced a partnership to co-develop a portfolio of biosimilar compounds in oncology, primarily focused on monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) with Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories. The partnership covers co-development, manufacturing and commercialization of the compounds around the globe, with some specific country exceptions. Mylan has also signed similar agreement with Biocon.

Glenmark Pharma has chosen yet another route, by entering into collaboration with Forest Laboratories (now Actavis) in 2013, for the development of a novel mPGES-1 inhibitor for chronic inflammatory conditions, including pain management.

Advantage India, provided…

Global generic drugs market would get its next booster dose with reportedly around 46 drugs going off patent opening a market of another US$ 66 billion from monopolistic to intense generic competition in 2015.

Details of ANDA status from the US-FDA source, as I indicated in my earlier blog post, probably indicate that several Indian players have already started moving in that direction at a brisk pace, keeping their eyes well fixed on the crystal ball. Over 30 percent of Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDAs) and around half of the total Drug Master Filings (DMF) now come from the Indian Companies. In 2013 alone, the US-FDA granted 154 ANDAs and 38 tentative ANDAs to the Indian companies.

Despite all these, a serious apprehension does creep in, which finds its root in much-publicized fraudulent behavior of a few large Indian drug manufacturers, seriously compromising with the cGMP standards of some high profile global drug regulators. This challenge has to be overcome, sooner, to reap rich harvest out of the emerging global opportunities in the space of generic drugs.

Conclusion:

Geographically, North America is the largest consumer of generic drugs followed by Europe and Japan. However, the highest growth of the generic drugs market is observed in the Asia-Pacific region. Besides Actavis, some of the major generic drugs manufacturers of the world are Mylan, Apotex, Hospira, Par Pharmaceutical., Sandoz International and Teva Pharmaceutical.

From India, Ranbaxy Laboratories (before the recent fiasco), Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Lupin and Sun Pharma, besides many others, are competing quite well in the global generic drugs market with success.

Though Actavis has its manufacturing operations in India with its registered office located in Mumbai, the company is not yet engaged in serious local marketing operations in the country. In 2006 as Watson Pharma Pvt Ltd., the company acquired Sekhsaria Chemicals in a move to push forward its generic drug agenda globally. In 2005, it acquired a manufacturing facility in Goa from Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories to produce solid dosage generic drugs for the US market.

Taking all these into considerations, if much deliberated cGMP issues with the foreign drug regulators are resolved sooner, Actavis is not expected to make any major difference for Indian pharma players either in the domestic market or for that matter globally, any time soon.

Thus Indian pharma players are unlikely to be adversely impacted with the emergence of this new potential Goliath in the global pharmaceutical landscape.

By: Tapan J. Ray

‘Herceptin Biosimilars’ Seriously Questioned

Posted on February 7, 2014 by Tapan Ray

The news struck as an anticlimax, close on the heels of high decibel product launch of ‘Herceptin Biosimilars’ in India, being hyped as the first in the world, bringing much needed relief to many diagnosed breast cancer patients for their economical pricing.

At the same time, this legal challenge has now come as an acid test for the regulator to prove that ‘Caesar’s wife must be above suspicion’ for any new drug approval and especially if it is a complex biosimilar used for the treatment of patients suffering from dreaded diseases, such as, breast cancer.

It’s not patent this time:

Interestingly, this is not a patent infringement case, as Roche has reportedly given-up its patent on Trastuzumab (Herceptin) in India last year.

Alleged violations:

The above media report highlights, in Delhi High Court Roche has sued Biocon of India and its US based generic partner – Mylan along with the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) related to launch of ‘Herceptin Biosimilar’ versions in India.

The allegation against Biocon and Mylan is that their recently launched drugs are being misrepresented as ‘biosimilar Trastuzumab’ or ‘biosimilar version of Herceptin’ without following the due process in accordance with the ‘Guidelines on Similar Biologics‘, necessary for getting approvals of such drugs in India.

‘Caesar’s wife’ under suspicion too:

The DCGI has also been sued by Roche for giving permission for launch of this product allegedly not in conformance with the above biosimilar guidelines, which were put in place effective August 15, 2012.

Roche reportedly argued that the above guidelines on similar biologics laid down a detailed and structured process for comparison of biosimilar with the original product and all the applications for manufacturing and marketing authorization of biosimilars are necessarily required to follow that prescribed pathway before obtaining marketing approval from the DCGI. Roche has also stated that there is no public record available, in the clinical trial registry India (CTRI) or elsewhere to show that these two players actually conducted phase-I or II clinical trials for the drug.

According to report Roche claims that DCGI has approved the “protocol and design study for testing” of Biocon related to the proposed drug just before the above regulatory guidelines were made effective, predominantly for patients’ health and safety reasons.

Interim restrain of the Delhi High Court:

In response to Roche’s appeal, the Delhi High Court has reportedly restrained Mylan and Biocon from “relying upon” or “referring to Herceptin” or any data relating to it for selling or promoting their respective brands Canmab (Biocon) and Hertaz (Mylan) till the next hearing.

The relevance of ‘Guidelines on Similar Biologics’:

The ‘Guidelines on Similar Biologics’ clearly articulated:

“Since there are several biosimilar drugs under development in India, it is of critical importance to publish a clear regulatory pathway outlining the requirements to ensure comparable safety, efficacy and quality of a similar biologic to an authorized reference biologic.”

Thus for patients’ health and safety interest the above regulatory pathway must be followed, the way these have been prescribed without any scope of cutting corners. This is even more important when so important pharmacovigilance system is almost non-functional in India.

Attempts to dilute the above guidelines from some quarters:

It was earlier reported that strong representations were made to the drug regulator in writing by powerful domestic players in this area urging to dilute the above ‘Guidelines’, otherwise it will be difficult for them to compete with the pharma MNCs.

This argument is ridiculous by any standard and smacks of putting commercial considerations above patients’ health interest.

The key issue:

As I see it, four quick questions that float at the top of my mind are as follows:

If the ‘Guidelines on Similar Biologics’ have not been followed either by the applicants or by the DCGI, how would one establish beyond an iota of doubt that these drugs are biosimilar to Trastuzumab, if not ‘Biosimilar to Herceptin’?

If these drugs are not proven biosimilar to Trastuzumab, as specified in the ‘Guidelines on Similar Biologics’, how can one use Trastuzumab data for their marketing approvals and the DCGI granting the same?

If these drugs were not biosimilars to Trastuzumab, would these be as effective, reliable and safe as Herceptin in the treatment of breast cancer?

Further, how are references related to Herceptin being used to promote these drugs both pre and post market launch?

Conclusion:

I guess, predominantly commercial considerations prompted Roche to sue Biocon, Mylan and also the DCGI on ‘Trastuzumab biosimilars’, launched recently in India.

Be that as it may, for the interest of so many diagnosed breast cancer patients in the country, there is crying need for the facts to come out in the open, once and for all. Are these drugs truly Trastuzumab biosimilars with comparable safety, efficacy, quality and reliability of Herceptin?

If the answer comes as yes, there would be a huge sigh of relief from all corners inviting millions of kudos to Biocon and Mylan.

However, if by any chance, the allegations are proved right, I do not have an iota of doubt that the honorable Delhi High Court would ferret out the truth, unmask the perpetrators and give them exemplary punishments for playing with patients’ lives.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Herceptin Biosimilar Expands Drug Access to Breast Cancer Patients in India

Posted on January 24, 2014 by Tapan Ray

Come February 2014, much to the relief of more than 145,000 patients diagnosed with breast cancer in India, Herceptin of Roche, a critical drug for the treatment of the dreaded disease, will face competition, for the first time, from a less expensive biosimilar equivalent. The product named Canmab developed together with Mylan by Biocon has been priced 25 percent less than Herceptin.

Patient access issue for newer cancer therapy:

Herceptin has been a very critical drug, though equally expensive, for breast cancer patients globally.

Mainly because of its unusual high price, the product created an access barrier to majority of patients in India. Arising out of complexity of the problem faced by the cancer patients, hugely compounded by the affordability issue, on January 12, 2013, it was first reported that in a move that is intended to benefit thousands of cancer patients, Indian Government has started the process of issuing Compulsory Licenses (CL) for three commonly used anti-cancer drugs:

- Trastuzumab (or Herceptin, used for breast cancer),

- Ixabepilone (used for chemotherapy)

- Dasatinib (used to treat leukemia).

For a month’s treatment drugs like, Trastuzumab, Ixabepilone and Dasatinib reportedly cost on an average of US$ 3,000 – 4,500 or Rs 1.64 – 2.45 lakh for each patient in India.

Pricing issue needs a systemic resolution:

While there is no single or only right way to arrive at the price of a patent protected medicine, how much the pharmaceutical manufacturers will charge for such drugs still remains an important, yet complex and difficult issue to resolve, both locally and globally. Even in the developed nations, where an appropriate healthcare infrastructure is already in place, this issue comes up too often mainly during price negotiation for reimbursed drugs.

A paper titled, “Pharmaceutical Price Controls in OECD Countries”, published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, after examining the drug price regulatory systems of 11 OECD countries, concluded that all of them enforce some form of price control to limit spending on pharmaceuticals. The report also indicated that the reimbursement prices in these countries are often treated as de facto market price.

Though there is no such system currently prevailing in India, the Government is mulling to put in place a similar mechanism for patented medicines, as captured in the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy (NPPP) 2012.

Further, some OECD governments regularly cut prices of even those drugs, which are already in the market. The value of health outcomes and pharmacoeconomics analysis is gaining increasing importance for drug price negotiations/control by the healthcare regulators even in various developed markets of the world to ensure responsible pricing of IPR protected medicines. For various reasons, no such process is followed either for such product pricing in India, as on date.

Roche changed Herceptin strategy for India:

To effectively address the challenge of pricing of patented medicines in India, Roche reportedly entered into a ‘never-before’ technology transfer and manufacturing contract for biologics with a local Indian company – Emcure Pharma for its two widely acclaimed ‘Monoclonal Antibodies’ anti-cancer drugs – Herceptin and MabThera.

Consequently, Roche introduced its ‘made in India’ brand Herclon (Herceptin) with a much-reduced maximum retail price of about Rs. 75,000 for a 440 mg vial and started co-marketing the product with Emcure Pharma in India.

Although Herceptin patent remains valid in the United States (US) until 2018, Roche decided to discontinue its patent rights for Herceptin in India in 2013.

The pharma major reportedly lost this patent earlier in Europe. This vindicates the views of many experts that Herceptin patent was weak, as it would probably not be able to clear the litmus test of a stringent scrutiny under the Patent Acts of India. The report, therefore, argues that core reason for withdrawal of Herceptin patent in India by Roche cannot be attributed, even remotely, to the ‘weak IP ecosystem’ in India.

Biocon Pricing:

According to reports Biocon’s Canmab, the biosimilar version of Herceptin, will be available in 440 mg vial with a maximum retail price of Rs. 57,500 and also in 150 mg vial at Rs. 19,500.

Lower price would lead to greater patient access – Roche argued earlier:

It was reported, when Roche switched over to Herclon with around 30 percent discounted price from very high price Herceptin, access to the drug improved. In fact, that was the logic cited by Roche for the launch of Herclon in India at that time.

Just to recapitulate, media reports indicated at that time that Roche intends to offer to Indian patients significantly cheaper, local branded version of Herceptin sooner. The same news item also quoted Roche spokesperson from Basel, Switzerland commenting as follows:

“The scope is to enable access for a large majority of patients who currently pay out of pocket as well as to partner with the government to enable increased access to our products for people in need”.

Conclusion:

It is beyond doubt that even with significantly lower price, Canmab would not be able to guarantee 100 percent access to the drug for all breast cancer patients in the country.

However, applying the same logic of Roche, as mentioned above, with further 25 percent price discount for Canmab by Biocon, the access to this drug should expand significantly for over 145,000 diagnosed breast cancer patients in India even, for an argument’s sake, all other factors, including inadequate number diagnostic facilities etc. remain the same. Isn’t that better?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Pharma Horizon: Cloud, Rainbow And Smear

Posted on December 9, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Some recent papers contemplated that the patent cliff for blockbuster drugs has already reached the zenith and early signs of recovery should be visible from 2013 onwards. However, from analysis of the currently available data, contrary to the above belief, I reckon, the downtrend in global pharma is far from over, not just yet.

One of the telltale signs of this slump is near-term patent expiry of today’s blockbuster drugs, the impact of which will continue to keep the global pharma sky overcast with clouds for some more time, especially in absence of replaceable equivalents. Interestingly, on the flip side, a beautiful rainbow, as it were, also takes shape in the horizon, ushering-in a hope to a large number of patients for improved access to newer drugs, just as it does to the generic players for accelerating business growth.

That’s the good part of it, though for the generic drug industry. However, the bad part of the emerging scenario gives rise to a lurking fear of gloom and doom, emanating from self-created evitable smears and taints, blended in vessels of despicable mindsets.

Clouds:

While having a glimpse at that following table, the underlying impact of the dark clouds looming large on the global pharma horizon cannot just be wished away:

Total Patent Expiry:

Year	Value US$ Billion
2015	66
2014	34
2013	28
2012	55
Total	183

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

Thus, the negative impact from sales lost to patent expiry of blockbuster drugs of today, though declined from US$ 55 billion in 2012 to US$ 28 billion in 2013, the same would start climbing-up again to US$ 66 billion in 2015.

If we take a look at the product-wise details, the picture pans out as under:

Top 10 ‘Patent Expiry’ in 2014:

No.	Brand	Company	Disease	Sales 2012 US$ Million	Expiry
1.	Copaxone	Teva	MultipleSclerosis	3996	May 2014
2.	Nexium	AstraZeneca	Acid peptic	3994	May 2014
3.	Micardis/HCT	BoehringerIngelheim	Hypertension	2217	Jan 2014
4.	Sandostatin LAR	Novartis	Cancer	1512	June 2014
5.	Exforge/HCT	Novartis	Hypertension	1352	Oct 2014
6.	Nasonex	Merck	Resp. Allergy	1268	Jan 2014
7.	Trilipix	Abbvie	Anti-lipid	1098	Jan 2014
8.	Evista	Eli Lilly	Osteoporosis	1010	Mar 2014
9.	Renagel	Sanofi	Chronic Kidney Disease	861	Sep. 2014
10.	Restasis	Allergan	Chronic Dry Eye	792	May 2014

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

The above figures, therefore, do reinforce the hypothesis that the following factors would continue to make the best brains of global pharma burning the midnight oil in search of sustainable strategic blueprints, at least, for some more time:

- Mostly, high growth emerging markets of the world are generic drugs driven

- Increasing cost containment pressure of Governments and/or other payor

- Challenges from Intellectual Property (IP) and Market Access related issues

- Declining R&D productivity

- Shift in overall focus for new drugs on expensive biologics

- Markets turning more Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA)

Current strategy to deliver shareholder-value not sustainable:

Since last several years, one has witnessed, despite slowing down of sales growth, big pharma players, by and large, have not failed in delivering impressive shareholder returns. This has been possible mainly due to ruthless cost cutting across the board, restructuring of operational framework and taking measures like, increase in dividends and share repurchases.

These strategic measures, though laudable to keep the head above water, are just not sustainable over a period of time sans strong cashﬂow.

Thus, for a long haul, robust and consistent business growth with commensurate impact on the bottom-line generating smooth cashflow, is imperative for all these companies.

In this difficult ball game of developing sustainable cutting-edge strategies at an equally challenging time, the consolidation process within the industry would gain further momentum, where only the fittest corporations, led by great corporate brains, would manage to survive and thrive.

However, who all would successfully be able to squarely face the moments of truth, triumphantly seizing the opportunities frozen in time, in the fast changing paradigm of a seemingly VUCA world, is not more than a matter of speculation now.

The Rainbow:

As stated above, while this canopy formed with dark clouds keeps looming large at the global pharma horizon, a beautiful rainbow is simultaneously seen taking shape for the domestic Indian drug manufacturers to cash-on with well-orchestrated strategic measures. One of the critical success requirements for this sprint, is touching the tape in the finishing line to become first to introduce generic versions of the patent expired drugs, especially in the US market.

Indian pharma players have already demonstrated in the past that they do have the wherewithal of making such rare opportunities meaningful by offering affordable new drugs of high quality standards to a large number of patients, while simultaneously accelerating growth of their respective business operations.

Proven acumen even in biologics:

India has recently proven its acumen in the area of biologics too, by developing a biosimilar version of the complex biologic drug – Trastuzumab (Herceptin) of Roche, used for the treatment of breast cancer, and that too in a record time.

As is known to many, earlier in 2013 Roche decided not to defend its patents on Herceptin in India, which reportedly recorded local sales of about US$ 21 million in 2012. Many people opined at that time, it would not be easy for any company to develop biosimilar version of Trastuzumab, mainly due to the complexity involved in its clinical development. Hence, some diehards kept arguing, Roche would not be commercially impacted much for taking the above decision, at least in the near to mid term.

Surprising almost everybody, Biocon and its MNC partner Mylan not only developed an affordable biosimilar version of Trastuzumab successfully, but also got its marketing approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), thereby immensely benefitting a large number of breast cancer patients in India and hopefully even beyond.

Keeping ‘Eye on the ball’?

Details of ANDA status from the USFDA source probably indicate that several Indian players have started gearing up to move in that direction at a brisk pace, keeping their eyes well fixed on the ball.

The following table further indicates that in 2012 India ranked second, after the United States (US) in terms of number of ANDA approvals and in 2013 till October India ranks number one, overtaking the United States (US):

ANDA’s Granted in 2012 and upto October 2013):

Country	ANDA 2012	ANDA (October 2013)	Total Since 2007
United States	183	119	1191
India	196	138	993
Switzerland	20	12	134
Israel	28	13	133
Canada	27	13	116
Germany	20	6	107
UK	11	15	95
China	7	10	29

Smears:

Unfortunately, just out side the frame of the above kaleidoscope, one can see large spots of self created slimy smears, which can make the ‘Rainbow’ irrelevant, maintaining the horizon as cloudy even for the Indian generic players.

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have just not invited disgrace for the country in this area, but also reportedly prompted regulators from other nations trying to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

Such despicable mindsets of the concerned key players, if remain unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming opportunities.

We have one such ready example before us and that too is not an old one. The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

Another report of November 2013 states, “The Drug Controller General of India has ordered Sun Pharmaceutical, the country’s largest drug maker by market capitalization to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, a move that could slow down the company’s regulatory filings in India and possibly overseas as well.”

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies. According to a recent report Strides Arcolab will not get US$ 250 million of the US$ 1.75 billion anticipated from the sale of its injectable drugs unit to Mylan Inc unless regulatory concerns at Agila Specialities in Bangalore are resolved.

Thus the smears though for now are confined to a few large manufacturing units of Indian Pharma, including some located overseas, may eventually play the spoil sport, trashing all hopes seen through the rainbow in the bins of shame.

Conclusion:

In the balance of probability, I believe, the clouds of uncertainty would continue to loom large over the global pharma, at least, till 2015.

However, in the midst of it, heralds a ‘never before opportunity’ for Indian pharma to cash on the early fruits of forthcoming patent expiries of today’s blockbuster drugs, not just for them, but for patients at large.

Already demonstrated capabilities of the homegrown players, trigger expectations of making it happen. The encouraging trend of grant of ANDAs in the US further reinforces this belief.

Despite all these, a lurking fear does creep in. This evitable fear finds its root in repeated fraudulent behavior of some Indian drug manufacturers, seriously compromising with cGMP standards of global drug regulators, including lying and falsification of data generated, thus playing a spoil sport by ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’, as it were.

That said, the question to ponder now is: In the ‘Pharma Horizon’ what would ultimately prevail in the short to medium term, especially in the Indian context – Clouds, The Rainbow or Smears?

By: Tapan J. Ray

More Glivec Like Deals in China and Mounting Global Challenges: Innovators poised Joining Biosimilar Bandwagon

Posted on April 15, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Pressure from the emerging markets on pricing of patented products is mounting fast. This time the country involved is China.

Recently, the Health Minister of China who stepped down last month after a seven-year stint in the top health job reportedly commented that western drugmakers will require to give hefty subsidies and forgo significant amount of profit on expensive cancer drugs, if they want access to huge market of China. He further voiced as follows:

“If the cost (of patented drugs) is too high, maybe only a few percent of patients can benefit. If we can arrange an appropriate, acceptable, affordable price, then you can have a huge market.”

‘Glivec deal’ in China:

In the same report, it was indicated that in China Novartis ultimately agreed to donate three doses of its leukemia drug Glivec for every one sold to the government.

It is expected that many more such deals will take place in China.

The situation to get more challenging in the emerging markets:

Many experts believe that due to high cost of patented drugs, especially biologics, negotiating hefty discounts with the Governments may be the best alternative for the innovator companies to avoid any possibilities of Compulsory Licensing (CL), like what happened to Bayer’s cancer drug Nexavar in India.

An opportunity in biosimilar drugs:

Biologic drugs came to the international market slightly more than three decades ago, in 1980s. Growing at a scorching pace, the value turnover of these products exceeded US$ 138 billion in 2010 (IMS Health).

Launch of biologics like, Recombinant Insulin, Human Growth Hormone (HGH), Alteplase, Erythropoietin (EPOs), Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factors (G-CSFs) and Monoclonal Antibodies (MAbs) kept fueling the market growth further.

Patent expiry of a number of biologic drugs over a period of next five years, especially in areas like, various types of cancer, diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, besides many others, will help opening a huge window of opportunity for the global biosimilar players, including from India, to reap a rich harvest.

Global innovators joining the bandwagon:

After a dream-run with high priced patented drugs for a reasonably long time, now stung by the current reality in various developed and emerging markets and factoring-in the width/depth/robustness of their own research pipeline, many global players have started taking a hard look at the emerging opportunities offered by biosimilar drugs.

Moreover, high price of original biologic drugs, cost containment pressure by various Governments, encouragement of generic prescriptions, large number of such drugs going off patent and growing demand of their low cost alternatives across the world, are making biosimilar market more and more lucrative from the global business perspective to all interested players, including from India.

According to Bloomberg Industries (2013), during the next six years biologic drugs with a total annual sales turnover of US$ 47 billion in 2012, will go off patent.

Sniffing opportunities for business growth, as stated above, many hard-nosed large research-based global pharmaceutical companies, currently fighting a challenging battle also in the ground of a tougher ‘patent cliff’, have started venturing into the biosimilar market, that too in a mega scale.

Some of them have already initiated developing biosimilar versions of blockbuster biologics, as reported below:

Originator	Product	Indication	Biosimilar development by:
Roche/Genentech	Rituxan	Rheumatoid arthritis	Boehringer Ingelheim
Roche/Genentech	Herceptin, Rituxan	Breast Cancer, Rheumatoid arthritis	Pfizer
Roche/Genentech	Rituxan	Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma	Novartis
Johnson & Johnson	Remicade	Rheumatoid arthritis	Hospira

Source: Bloomberg BusinessWeek

Thus, I reckon, continuous quest for development of cost-effective alternatives to high-priced biologic medicines would keep on propelling the growth of biosimilar drugs, across the world.

Glivec maker Novartis fought a court battle to launch the first ‘Biosimilar drug’ in America:

In mid-2006, US FDA approved its first ‘biosimilar drug’-Omnitrope of Sandoz, the generic arm of the Glivec maker Novartis, following a Court directive. Omnitrope is a copycat version of Pfizer’s human growth hormone Genotropin. Interestingly, Novartis had also taken the US FDA to court for keeping its regulatory approval pending for a while in the absence of a well-defined regulatory pathway for ‘biosimilar drugs’ in the USA at that time.

More interestingly, having received the US-FDA approval, the CEO of Sandoz (Novartis) had then commented as follows:

“The FDA’s approval is a breakthrough in our goal of making high-quality and cost-effective follow-on biotechnology medicines like, Omnitrope available for healthcare providers and patients worldwide”.

Biosimilar market started shaping-up:

Internationally most known companies in the biosimilar drugs space are Teva, Stada, Hospira and Sandoz. Other large research based global innovator pharmaceutical companies, which so far have expressed interest in the field of biosimilar drugs, are Pfizer, Astra Zeneca, Merck and Eli Lilly.

Following are examples of some biosimilar drug related initiatives of the global players as the market started developing:

Merck announced its entry into the biosimilar drugs business on February 12, 2009 with its acquisition of Insmed’s portfolio for US$ 130 million. The company also paid US$ 720 million to Hanwha for rights to its copy of Enbrel of Amgen.

Samsung of South Korea has set up a biosimilars joint venture with Quintiles to create a contract manufacturer for biotech drugs.

Celltrion and LG Life Sciences have expressed global ambitions in biosimilar drugs.

Some leading global innovator biotech companies also like, Biogen Idec and Amgen have reportedly been mulling entry into biosimilar market.

According to Reuter (June 22, 2011), Merck, Sandoz, Teva and Pfizer are expected to emerge stronger in the global biosimilar market, in the years ahead.

Why is still so low penetration of lower cost biosimilar drugs?

Although at present over 150 different biologic medicines are available globally, just around 11 countries have access to low cost biosimilar drugs, India being one of them. Supporters of biosimilar medicines are indeed swelling as time passes by.

It has been widely reported that the cost of treatment with patented biologic drugs can vary from US$ 100,000 to US$ 300,000 a year. A 2010 review on biosimilar drugs published by the Duke University highlights that biosimilar equivalent of the respective biologics would not only reduce the cost of treatment, but would also improve access to such drugs significantly for the patients across the globe. (Source: Chow, S. and Liu, J. 2010, Statistical assessment of biosimilar products, Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics 20.1:10-30)

Now with the entry of global pharma majors, the biosimilar market is expected to get further heated up and develop at a much faster pace with artificial barriers created by vested interests, if any, being removed.

Recent removal of regulatory hurdles for the marketing approval of such drugs in the US will indeed be the key growth driver.

Other growth drivers:

According to a study (2011) conducted by Global Industry Analysts Inc., besides recent establishment of the above regulatory guidelines for biosimilars in the US, the key growth drivers for global biosimilar market, will be as follows:

▪ Patent expiries of blockbuster biologic drugs

▪ Cost containment measures of various governments

▪ Aging population

▪ Supporting legislation in increasing number of countries

The business potential in India:

The size of biotech industry in India is estimated to be around US$ 4 billion by 2015 with a scorching pace of growth driven by both local and global demands (E&Y Report 2011).

The biosimilar drugs market in India is expected to reach US$ 2 billion in 2014 (source: Evalueserve, April 2010).

Recombinant vaccines, erythropoietin, recombinant insulin, monoclonal antibody, interferon alpha, granulocyte cell stimulating factor like products are now being manufactured by a number of domestic biotech companies like, Biocon, Panacea Biotech, Wockhardt, Emcure, Bharat Biotech, Serum Institute of India and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), besides others.

DRL is the largest biosimilar player in India with an impressive product portfolio. Reditux of DRL is the world’s first Biosimilar monoclonal antibody, which is a copy version of Mabthera/ Rituxan of Roche and costs almost 50 percent less than the original brands.

Some of the Biosimilar products of the Indian Companies are as follows:

Indian Company	Biosimilar Product
Dr Reddy’s Lab	Grafeel, Reditux, Cresp
Intas	Neukine, Neupeg, Intalfa, Epofit
Shantha Biotech/Merieux Alliance	Shanferon,Shankinase,Shanpoietin
Reliance Life Sciences	ReliPoietin, ReliGrast, ReliFeron, MIRel
Wockhardt	Wepox, Wosulin
Biocon	Eripro, Biomab, Nufil, Myokinase, Insugen

(Source: Stellarix Consultancy Services)

The cost of development of Biosimilars in India is around US$ 10-20 million, which is expected to go up, as “Biosimilar Guidelines” are now in place for marketing approval of such products in India.

The ultimate objective of all these Indian companies will be to get regulatory approval of their respective biosimilar products in the US and the EU, either on their own or through collaborative initiatives.

Indian players making rapid strides:

As stated above, biosimilar version of Rituxan (Rituximab) of Roche used in the treatment of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma has already been developed by DRL in India. It also has developed Filgastrim of Amgen, which enhances production of white blood cell by the body and markets the product as Grafeel in India.

Similarly Ranbaxy has collaborated with Zenotech Laboratories to manufacture G-CSF.

On the other hand Glenmark reportedly is planning to come out with its first biotech product soon from its biological research establishment located in Switzerland.

Indian pharmaceutical major Cipla reportedly has invested around US$ 60 million in 2010 to acquire stakes of MabPharm in India and BioMab in China and is planning to launch a biosimilar drug in the field of oncology by 2013.

Another large pharmaceutical company of India, Lupin signed a deal with a private specialty life science company NeuClone Pty Ltd of Sydney, Australia for their cell-line technology. Lupin reportedly will use this technology for developing biosimilar drugs in the field of oncology, the first one of which, will reportedly be launched in India by 2013.

The global Market:

In 2011 the turnover of Biologic drugs increased to over US$ 175 billion in the total market of US$ 847 billion. The sale of Biosimilar drugs outside USA exceeded US$ 1 billion.

Six biologic drugs featured in the top 10 best selling global brands in 2012 with Humira of AbbVie emerging as the highest-selling biologics during the year. Roche remained the top company by sales for biologics with anticancer and monoclonal antibodies.

According to IMS Health report, by 2015, sales of biosimilars are expected to reach between US$ 1.9 – 2.6 billion. The report also states that this market has the potential to be the single fastest-growing biologics sector in the next five years.

Cost of biosimilar development in the developed markets:

The process of developing a biosimilar drug is complex and requires significantly more investment, technical capabilities and clinical trial expertise than any small molecule generic drug. As per industry sources, average product developmental cost ranges between US$ 100 and 250 million in the developed markets, which is several times higher than the same associated with development of small molecule generics, ranging around US$ 1to 4 million.

All these factors create a significant market entry barrier for many smaller players with similar intent but less than adequate wherewithal.

Even higher market entry barrier with ‘second generation’ biosimilar drugs:

Emergence of second generation branded biosimilar products such as PEGylated products and PegIntron (peginterferon alpha), Neulasta (pegfilgrastim) and insulin analogs have the potential to reduce the market size for first generation biosimilar drugs creating significant entry barrier.

Negotiating the entry barriers:

As stated above, the barriers to market entry for biosimilar drugs are, in general, are much higher than any small molecule generic drugs. In various markets within EU, many companies face the challenge of higher development costs for biosimilar drugs due to stringent regulatory requirements and greater lead-time for product development.

Navigating through such tough regulatory environment will demand different type of skill sets, especially for the generic companies not only in areas of clinical trials and pharmacovigilance, but also in manufacturing and marketing. Consequently, the investment needed to take biosimilar drugs from clinical trials to launch in the developed markets will indeed be quite significant.

The future potential:

According to an IMS Health study, the emerging markets will drive biosimilar market growth with significantly more number of patients. The report estimates that over a period of time US will emerge as the number one global biosimilars market.

By 2020, emerging markets and the US are expected to register a turnover of US$11 billion and US$ 25 billion representing a share of 4 percent to 10 percent of the total global biologics market, respectively.

The report estimates that overall penetration of biosimilars within the off-patent biological market will reach up to 50 percent by 2020, assuming a price discount in the range of 20 to 30 percent.

Is 12 years exclusivity in the US a significant entry barrier?

In the US, the innovator companies get 12 years exclusivity for their original biologic drugs from the date of respective marketing approvals by the USFDA.

The BPCI Act clearly specifies that applications for ‘biosimilar drugs’ to the USFDA will not be made effective by the regulator before 12 years from the date of approval of the innovators’ products. In addition, if the original product is for pediatric indications, the 12-years exclusivity may get an extension for another six months.

The key point to note here is, if the USFDA starts its review process for the ‘biosimilar drugs’ only after the ’12 year period’, the innovator companies will effectively get, at least, one additional year of exclusivity over and above the ’12 year period’, keeping applicants for ‘biosimilar drugs’ waiting for that longer.

Conclusion:

As stated above, with around 40 percent cost arbitrage and without compromising on the required stringent international regulatory standards, the domestic ‘biosimilar’ players should be able to establish India as one of the most preferred manufacturing destinations to meet the global requirements for such drugs, just as small molecule generic medicines.

With experience in conforming to stringent US FDA manufacturing standards, having largest number of US FDA approved plants outside USA, India has already acquired a clear advantage in manufacturing high technology chemical based pharmaceutical products in the country. Now with significant improvement in conformance to Good Clinical Practices (GCP) and honed skill sets in the field of biologics, Indian biosimilar players are clearly poised to catapult themselves to even a higher growth trajectory, either on their own or with appropriate collaborative arrangements with the international partners.

Thus, the initiatives of joining the biosimilar bandwagon by the hard-nosed research based global players, I reckon, will ultimately get translated into a win-win advantage for India in the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical space of the world.

Besides, like what they had to do in China, working with the Government to put in place a robust and win-win mechanism of ‘Price Negotiation for Patented Drugs’ in India could augur well for the global players of pharmaceutical and biologic drugs. This mechanism may also help putting forth even a stronger argument against any Government initiative to grant CL on the pricing ground for expensive patented drugs in India.

With all these developments, patients will be the ultimate winners having much greater access to both innovative medicines and biosimilar drugs than what they have today, fetching a huge relief to all right thinking population in the country.

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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