Honing Patient Outcomes With WHDs

Posted on December 2, 2019 by Tapan Ray

On November 01, 2019, San Francisco-based Fitbit, Inc. announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Google LLC for approximately US$ 2.1 billion. Many believe, though, the value of Fitbit lies in the health data that its wearables capture for its large base of users.

According to the CEO of Fitbit, currently the Fitbit brand supports more than 28 million active users around the globe who rely on these wearable products ‘to live a healthier, more active life.’ With Google’s resources and global platform, Fitbit will be able to accelerate innovation in the wearables category, scale faster, and make health even more accessible to everyone, he added.

The article – ‘The Real Reason Google Is Buying Fitbit,’ published in the Time magazine on November 04, 2019 makes some interesting points, such as the following:

The fast-growing healthcare tech space could be worth US$24 billion by 2020, says an estimate from Statista.
Although, Google has been working on cardiovascular health, diabetes and more, it hasn’t been publicly pushing healthcare as a business proposition, just yet.
Whereas, Google’s rivals, most notably Apple, have embraced healthcare as the next big battleground in the tech world, attracted by the promises of big profits for those who can help simplify a byzantine healthcare system.

Nonetheless, the Fitbit acquisition would facilitate Google’s entry into the Wearable Health Devices (WHDs) market in a big way, alongside other big players, such as, Apple and Samsung.

Driven by the most likely scenario of increasing usage and usefulness of WHDs, several pharma players are sniffing huge underlying commercial opportunity in this space, alongside being demonstrably patient-centric. Thus, my today’ article will deliberate whether or not WHDs will be able to offer a cutting edge to innovative drug marketers, by continually honing patient outcomes. Let me initiate this discussion by fathoming the importance of WHDs in the fast transforming digital world.

The importance of WHDs in the digital world:

‘Mary Meeker‘s 2019 Internet Trends Report’ highlights, about 51 percent of the global population is now connected to the internet, with the majority of users based in China, India and the United States. However, global internet user growth has slowed down by 6 percent and it’s becoming increasingly harder to get the rest of the world online.

In this background, especially - ‘As patients become more involved in making decisions about their health care, research shows, the result is increased satisfaction and improved health outcomes.’Consequently, the report spotlights healthcare digitization where consumer adoption of digital health tools is increasing rapidly. Some of the top areas, in terms of their speed of adoption, were listed as follows:

Online Health Information
Online Provider Reviews
Mobile Tracking
Wearables
Live Video Telemedicine

This gives a sense of how fast the WHDs are gaining importance for the consumers. Interestingly, Intouch Group also points out that wearables are now being used more to manage a diagnosis rather than just fitness trackers. Adding further, it pointed out – ‘Apple’s ResearchKit is an example of what CEO Tim Cook calls the “democratization of healthcare,” in that it provides health data directly to consumers so they can manage their health.’

A recent study on the scope of wearables:

The scope of WHDs was aptly corroborated in a recent article – ‘The Rise of Wearable Technology in Health Care,’ published in the JAMA Network Open on February 01, 2019. The paper concludes, the general principle of commercially available ubiquitous wearable computers bodes well for our future ability to measure, track, and understand patient physiological data and behavior both in the hospital and at home.

The ability to capture such data, then applying machine learning to get the evolving health trends and sending alerts to patient accordingly – nurses, and physicians are instantaneously getting empowered to deliver patient outcomes. The fact that the alert can come easily via the patients’ smartphones that a significant part of the global population now carries with them, leading to further democratization of health care.

The Economist also predicted, by 2020 – 80 percent of the adult population of the world would have a smartphone in their pocket. Therefore, this development opens up an entirely new world of real-time data acquisition, monitoring, and intervention, the paper underscored.

Giving a relevant example, it highlighted: ‘On December 6, 2018, Apple rolled out a software upgrade that turns the Apple Watch Series 4 into a personal electrocardiogram.’ The researchers further added, while WHDs’ fidelity may not yet exactly match medical-grade monitors and devices, these are “good enough” coupled with around-the-clock capabilities, real-time data capture, storage, and analytics and seem likely to provide real value.

The opportunities with WHDs:

Both from the health and business perspectives, WHDs are opening new vistas of opportunities for all stakeholders in the healthcare space, such as, patients, doctors, care providers and also pharma companies. This was enunciated in several studies, such as one, titled ‘Wearable Health Devices – Vital Sign Monitoring, Systems and Technologies,’ published by Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) on July 25, 2018.

This paper also reiterated: ‘Wearable Health Devices (WHDs) are increasingly helping people to better monitor their health status both at an activity/fitness level for self-health tracking and at a medical level providing more data to clinicians with a potential for earlier diagnosis and guidance of treatment. The technology revolution in the miniaturization of electronic devices is enabling to design more reliable and adaptable wearables, contributing to a world-wide change in the health monitoring approach.’

Thus, a big excitement is currently palpable around the technology related to WHDs. Many more opportunities are expected to unfold for continuation of the ascending trend. With the entry of big global tech giants such as, Apple and now Google, besides scores of small startups, WHDs of many types have started entering into the healthcare, carrying a promise to improving outcomes and creating a unique patient experience in the disease treatment process.

Improves outcomes, creates a unique disease treatment experience:

Echoing many other experts in this area, I also believe that WHDs have covered a lot of ground by now – expanding its usage from fitness trackers to diagnosis of disease and then monitoring the progress both during and after treatment. Current usages of WHDs are mostly for non-infectious chronic diseases, such as diabetes, cardiovascular conditions, sleeping disorders, obesity and treatment compliance, besides others. The list is gradually expected to expand.

Apparently, encouraged by this trend, more pharma players are now moving into this area for significant brand value for augmentation through better patient outcomes – apace with providing a unique disease treatment experience for suffering individuals.

The scope in India:

As WHDs have a close link with both Internet and Smartphone penetration, let me try to weigh the potential of the wearables, in view of the current status of both in the country.

According to the India Internet 2019 Report by Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), the following three points are indeed noteworthy, besides others:

With 451 million monthly active internet users at the end of financial year 2019, India is now second only to China in this regard.
Urban India with 192 million users had almost the same number of users as rural India. However, in terms of percentages or penetration, given the disparity of population distribution in urban and rural India, urban India had a considerably higher penetration level.
In rural India, a sizable portion does not have access to the Internet, and provides a huge opportunity for growth which will contribute to an increase in the overall Internet population over the next few years, it said.

Similarly, according to the Statista report, for 2017, the number of smartphone users in India was estimated to reach 299.24 million, with the number of smartphone users worldwide forecast to exceed 2.3 billion users by that time, and was projected to be nearly 2.7 billion by 2019.

These numbers speak for themselves on the underlying opportunities of WHDs – both globally and locally. Accordingly, large pharma players have already started teaming up to deliver better patient outcomes, leveraging the value of WHDs.

Pharma players teaming up to deliver better patient outcomes with WHD:

There are several such examples. Nevertheless, to illustrate the point, let me cite one such recent instance of Abbott Laboratories announcing a deal on February 20, 2019 with Novo Nordisk to make diabetes management easier by linking technologies of the two companies. The deal will allow integration of insulin dose data for Novo Nordisk’s pre-filled and connected pens with its ‘FreeStyle’ Libre mobile app and cloud-based system.

‘Abbott’s ‘FreeStyle’ Libre Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) system will read glucose levels through a sensor that can be worn on the back of the upper arm eliminating the need for routine finger pricks. Through the FreeStyle LibreLink app users can capture and view their real-time glucose levels, their eight-hour glucose history, and how their glucose is currently changing on their smartphone.’

Yet another report highlighted, ‘Google sister-company Verily is teaming with big pharma on clinical trials.’ On May 21, 2019, the company announced strategic alliances with the pharmaceutical companies Novartis, Sanofi, Otsuka and Pfizer to help it move more deeply into the medical studies market. The goals for Verily, and its pharma partners, are to reach patients in new ways, make it easier to enroll and participate in trials, and aggregate data across a variety of sources, including the electronic medical record or health-tracking wearable devices,’ the report emphasized.

Conclusion:

It seems clear that in the rapidly transforming digital world, many drug companies are realizing the criticality of making their business operations sine qua non with the evolving trend is essential. This is not just for the organization progress, but also for long-term survival of the business. In the midst of this exciting technological environment, the potential value of WHDs to deliver better patient outcomes is being brought to the fore, primarily by the pure tech companies.

Figuring out the magnitude of the new opportunity, several pharma companies have thrown their hats in the ring, primarily in the form of collaborative deals. This ushers in a new phase in the healthcare space. Mostly because, such initiatives will have to be patient-centric for providing a unique patient experience with the drugs, in the disease treatment process. As India too, is taking rapid strides for penetration of digital technology in its ‘Health for All’ initiatives, the use of WHDs for better and cost-effective patient outcomes isn’t a pipe dream, any longer.

The evolving scenario, therefore, opens yet another door for the pharma players to grow their business, not just with drugs offering differential value, but also by making even a ‘me-too’ drug perform better, leveraging the potential of WHDs, effectively. From this perspective, continuously honing patient outcomes with WHDs, appears to be a unique tool for pharma marketers to make use of – in search of excellence.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Is India in The Eye of The AMR Storm?

Posted on August 26, 2019 by Tapan Ray

‘With 700,000 people losing battle to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) per year and another 10 million projected to die from it by 2050, AMR alone is killing more people than cancer and road traffic accidents combined together.’ This was highlighted in the Review Article, ‘Antimicrobial resistance in the environment: The Indian scenario,’ published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR), on June 03, 2019.

The article further noted, ‘AMR engendered from the environment has largely remained neglected so far,’ which has a snowballing effect. Illustrating the enormity of its impact, the researchers recorded: ‘Economic projections suggest that by 2050, AMR would decrease gross domestic product (GDP) by 2-3.5 percent with a fall in livestock by 3-8 percent, costing USD100 trillion to the world.’

Besides International media, fearsome consequences of AMR are also being highlighted by the Indian media from time to time. For example, on November 21, 2018, a leading national business daily carried an apt headline: ‘India in the firing line of antimicrobial resistance.’ More intensive coverage of such nature for this public menace, would hopefully appeal to the conscience of all those who can meaningfully address this situation, especially the government.

Against this backdrop, I shall explore in this article, whether India is really in the eye of this AMR storm, which is posing an unprecedented threat to many lives, perhaps more in India.

India is being called the AMR capital of the world:

Analyzing the emerging research data in this area, India was referred to as ‘the AMR capital of the world,’ in the 2017 Review Article, title ‘Antimicrobial resistance: the next BIG pandemic.’ Curiously, besides umpteen number of published papers documenting this scary development, very few enlightened individuals would dare to push an argument to the contrary. Whereas, besides framing a policy document on AMR,nothing much is changing in India on this score. This is happening, even when it is evidenced that a gamut of the most powerful antibiotics, are not working against many deadly bacteria. Added to it, India still doesn’t have a public database that provides death due to AMR.

Are adequate resources being deployed to fight the menace:

Today one would witness with pride that India’s ‘Chandrayaan 2’ lunar mission is moving towards the Moon’s south polar region, where no country has ever gone before. At the same time, despite AMR threat, India’s budgetary allocation for health in 2018-2019, reportedly, shows a 2.1 percent decrease of the total Union Budget from the 2.4 percent in 2017-2018.

It is interesting to note that India: ‘Despite being the world’s sixth largest economy, public health spending has languished at under 1.5 percent of GDP, one of the lowest rates in the world. For comparison, the United Kingdom shelled out 9.6 percent of its GDP in 2017 on health. The United States’ health expenditure is 18 percent of GDP.’

‘Ayushman Bharat’ and health care infrastructure:

Recently lunched public health program - Ayushman Bharat, although is not a Universal Health Care (UHC) program, it has targeted to cover ‘less than half the population and excluding 700 million people’. While giving a thumbs-up to this initiative, if one looks at the overall health infrastructure in India to make it possible as intended, it may not encourage many.

To illustrate this point, let me quote only the salient points, as captured in a 2018 study, published in the British Medical Journal, as follows:

The total size of health workforce estimated from the National Sample Survey (NSS) data was 3.8 million as of January 2016, which is about 1.2 million less than the total number of health professionals registered with different councils and associations.

The density of doctors and nurses and midwives per 10,000 population is 20.6 according to the NSS and 26.7 based on the registry data.

Health workforce density in rural India and states in eastern India is lower than the WHO minimum threshold of 22.8 per 10,000 population.

More than 80 percent of doctors and 70 percent of nurses and midwives are employed in the private sector.

Approximately 25 percent of the current working health professionals do not have the required qualifications as laid down by professional councils, while 20 percent of adequately qualified doctors are not in the current workforce.

The intent to deliver health care as announced by various governments from time to time is good. But, the available health infrastructure to deliver these meaningfully are grossly inadequate, creating a huge apprehension among many. This is not just because of the grossly inadequate number of hospitals, doctors, nurses and paramedics, but also their even uneven spread in the country. The cumulative impact of these, fueled by corruption, ‘missing doctors, ill-equipped health professionals, and paucity of required funds’ continue creating a humongous problem for the public, at large, to get affordable health care.

At the same time, there is ‘a serious lack of new antibiotics under development to combat the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance.’ Imagine, a situation when India gets caught in the eye of the AMR storm and imagine the consequences of that, as you deem appropriate.

Lack of new antibiotics under development to combat AMR:

The World Health Organization (WHO) report - ‘Antibacterial agents in clinical development – an analysis of the antibacterial clinical development pipeline, including tuberculosis’, launched on September 20, 2017 shows ‘a serious lack of new antibiotics under development to combat the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance.’

It further reported: ‘Most of the drugs currently in the clinical pipeline are modifications of existing classes of antibiotics and are only short-term solutions.’ The report also found, very few potential treatment options for those antibiotic-resistant infections identified by WHO as posing the greatest threat to health, including drug-resistant tuberculosis which kills around 250 000 people each year.

Thus, the point to ponder simultaneously is, whether there is any decline in global investments for antibiotic research, both by the drug industry and the public funders.

Declining investment on new antibiotic R&D:

As stated in the May 2016 paper, titled ‘Tackling Drug-Resistant Infections Globally. As the report indicates: ‘The UK Prime Minister commissioned the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance to address the growing global problem of drug-resistant infections. It is chaired by Jim O’Neill and supported by the Wellcome Trust and UK Government, but operates and speaks with full independence from both.’

The report acknowledges that new antibiotic research and development has been suffering from decades of under-investment by companies and governments. The reason being, antibiotic discovery and development are no longer an attractive proposition for commercial drug developers, for a key fundamental reason:

And this is, lack of a dependable, commercially-attractive market for antibiotics that meet large unmet medical needs. As a result, the volume of sales of a such new antibiotics will be low, and restricted only to multi-drug resistant bacteria. Otherwise, older and cheaper antibiotics will still work against most other infections. In that scenario, patented new antibiotics will have to compete with generics, keeping the price low. This combination of price pressure and low volumes makes antibiotics unattractive as a commercial proposition for many drug developers.

Which is why, as the report says: ‘Less than 5 percent of venture capital investment in pharmaceutical R&D between 2003 and 2013 was for antimicrobial development.’ Against total venture capital investment of USD 38 billion in pharmaceutical R&D, antimicrobial venture capital investment was mere USD 1.8 billion, during the same period. Coming back to India specific concerns, let’s have a look at the sociocultural issues in the country, associated with AMR.

Sociocultural issues are fueling the fire:

Understandably, the AMR problem remains intricately intertwined with a number of sociocultural issues of India. It has been established in several studies that social level, socioeconomic and socio-cultural status can play a significant role in the health status of people. Most research done on this subject indicates that higher level of socioeconomic classes reflects at a higher level of health and longevity. Much of this comes from the fact that there is a higher level of education and health care that is available for ‘this class level’.

Sociocultural issues in India also includes, poor hygienic practices, inadequate clean water and good sanitation facilities across the country, besides improper implementation and lack of good governance of health policies, rules and regulations. These factors are also aggravating the AMR problems in the country, as stated in the article, titled ‘‘Public Health Challenges in India,’ published in the Indian Journal of Community Medicine, in its April-June 2016 issue. Which is why, just addressing the indiscriminate use of antibiotics and restricting its wide consumption, aren’t not enough, any longer.

Is India in the eye of the AMR storm?

‘Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has emerged as a major threat to public health estimated to cause 10 million deaths annually by 2050. India carries one of the largest burdens of drug-resistant pathogens worldwide.’ This was highlighted in the research paper, titled ‘Antimicrobial resistance: Progress in the decade since the emergence of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase in India’, published in the Indian Journal of Community Medicine, on March 12, 2019.

The article noted, ‘AMR has been identified as a global health threat with serious health, political, and economic implications.’ The paper concluded with a serious note, which is worth taking note of. It found, the full throttle efforts to tackle the AMR challenge in India still requires significant efforts from all stakeholders. It underscored, ‘Despite the adoption of a national policy and significant activities already underway, progress is limited by a lack of clear implementation strategy and research gaps.’

Suggested areas of focus in India:

As ‘the Sword of Damocles’, in the form of AMR, hangs over the head of Indian population, there are certain important measures that the country can definitely take to contain AMR, whereas some other critical ones will be challenging to roll out, immediately.

It is unlikely, during this period India will have the requisite wherewithal to focus on discovery and development of new antibiotics to tackle AMR. Similarly, only framing rules and regulations for doctors, patients, dispensing chemists or hospitals to prevent antibiotic misuse, which are not persuasively yet strongly implemented, won’t also yield desired results. Nevertheless, efforts must continue for their effective compliance.

That said, what the country can seriously focus on, sans much constraints, is on taking collective measures in resolving some of the crucial but intimately associated sociocultural issues, with all sincerity and precision. A few of these important areas include, intense public awareness campaigns on the growing threat to life due to AMR, clubbing the benefits of availing good sanitation facilities, hygienic lifestyle and everyday practices.

Moreover, misuse of antibiotics in poultry, animal farming and agriculture should be curbed. Alongside, mass vaccination program for prevention of bacterial and viral infections, should be made available all over the country. Monitoring of the incidence of death due to AMR, on an ongoing basis, is another practice should also feature in the must-do list, providing access to this database to public. Responding meaningfully to International coalition for country-specific action, is also very important. To attain this goal a healthy socioeconomic environment needs to be encouraged, with corruption free efficient governance.

Conclusion:

That India is in the eye of the AMR storm, can’t be wished away any longer. Thus, the fight against AMR will need to be a well-orchestrated one, engaging all stakeholders as partners. The private sector should also actively participate in the AMR awareness programs under public–private partnership (PPP) or through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives.

The whole process should be backed by a creative strategy, having buying-in from all concerned, but spearheaded by the government. That’s the minimum that, I reckon, should happen when the country is in the eye of the impending AMR storm.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Challenge of Holistic Value Creation With Pharma M&A

Posted on August 19, 2019 by Tapan Ray

Two mega deals, right at the dawn of 2019 gave a flying start to Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activities, in search of inorganic growth, by some large pharma companies. The two biggest ones are Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMS) USD 74 billion buyout of Celgene, and AbbVie’s USD 63 billion purchase of Allergan, as announced on January 03, 2019 and June 25, 2019, respectively. However, overall in the second quarter of 2019, there were, reportedly, only 22 deals – ‘the smallest quarterly deal count for at least a decade.’

As a strategic option for greater value creation to drive growth, M&A is being actively considered over a long period of time. The key focus of such value creation for the company remains primarily on enriching the pipeline of New Chemical or Molecular Entities (NCE/NME) for revenue synergy, besides cost synergy. This is understandable. But, for various reasons, alongside, a key question also comes up for debate – is the core purpose of such value creation to drive companies’ growth, primarily with more number new drugs, sustainable? The query assumes greater relevance in the evolving new paradigm. This is because, a basic shift is taking place in the core organizational purpose of value creation.

Thus, it appears, the nature of value creation through M&A would also matter as much. Can it still remain a drug company’s financial health centric, any longer? Should the M&A initiatives also not take under their wings, the value-offerings expected by patients from a drug company – beyond innovative pills? Would a holistic value creation through M&A would now be the name of the game? If so, how? The discussion of my today’s article will revolve around these questions. Let me initiate the deliberation by recapitulating the key motivation behind M&A initiatives of the drug industry.

A key motivation behind the M&A initiatives in the drug industry:

While recapitulating one of the key motivations behind pharma M&As, let me refer to some interesting and recent studies, such as, the 2019 paper of McKinsey titled, ‘What’s behind the pharmaceutical sector’s M&A push.’ It also acknowledges, the use of M&A to bolster drug innovation is unlikely to change any time soon.

That many drug companies actively pursue the M&A option as a game changer for inorganic growth, is vindicated by the recent big deals, as quoted above. Since early 2000 and before, the companies that made the biggest deals to create new value synergies with, have been paying heavy deal premium to enrich their new product pipelines. Quite often it includes several new and emerging classes of drugs, as acquisition targets.

This also gets corroborated in the Press Release of the 2019 BMS deal, which says: ‘The transaction will create a leading focused specialty biopharma company well positioned to address the needs of patients with cancer, inflammatory and immunologic disease and cardiovascular disease through high-value innovative medicines and leading scientific capabilities.’

Lesser yield of traditional pharma M&A than the broader market:

This was emphasized in the June 06, 2019 article, published in The Washington Post, titled ‘Big Pharma Has to Bet Big on M&A. Investors Don’t.’ The analysis found, the returns from the big pharma deals ‘don’t look as good compared to the broader market’, although for very patient investors many of these have resulted in longer-term gains. To illustrate this point, the paper pointed out: ‘Of the eight biopharma deals worth more than USD 40 billion that closed in the last 20 years, only one delivered better returns than the S&P 500 five years after it closed.’

Naming Merck & Co..’s USD 47 billion acquisition of Schering-Plough Corp. in 2009, the researcher justified: ‘That deal is arguably something of an accidental winner. Long-term success didn’t come from any of the products that Merck targeted in the merger; instead, an afterthought of an antibody that was initially set to be sold off became Keytruda, a cancer drug that’s projected to generate USD 15 billion in sales in 2021.’

Innovative product launches no longer a holistic value-creation for patients:

Thus, unlike yesteryears, enriching new and innovative product pipeline through M&A won’t serve the key purpose of value-creation for patients to treat deadly diseases in a holistic way. The primary reason for the same was articulated in the Deloitte Paper titled, ‘Disruptive M&A: Are you ready to define your future?’ The article emphasized: ‘The confluence of technological change, shifting customer preferences, and convergence across sectors is redesigning how products and services are developed, delivered, and consumed.’

Thus, mere acquisitions of innovative product portfolios, intended to provide better treatment choices for patients, may not meet the holistic needs of consumers’ while going through the disease treatment process. In depth understanding of such preferences with all associated nuances, is absolutely essential in today’s complex business scenario. Which is why, it calls for avant-garde type or ‘disruptive M&As’, that can help alter the business growth trajectories, making the disrupted company disrupt the competitive space, being game changers of the industry.

Calls for avant-garde type or disruptive pharma M&As:

Today, it’s crucial for any drug company to create a unique treatment experience for patients. This is emerging as a pivotal factor for the success of a brand.

Even most innovative products will need to be supported by disruptive back-office technology for market success. Thus, acquisition of disruptive technology to effectively augment the brand value delivery process is equally important, in tandem with enrichment of new product pipeline. This is expected to emerge as a critical driver in pharma M&A. Such takeovers, I reckon, may be termed as avant-garde type or disruptive M&As – for holistic value creation for patients.

‘Disruptive M&A’ creates a much broader range of possibilities and targets:

For a holistic value creation through disruptive M&A focus for target selection needs to be significantly different from the standard models of M&As – and not just about the quality of NCE and NME pipeline. The above paper also highlighted: ‘Disruptive M&A opportunities requires evaluating and assessing a much broader range of possibilities and targets than traditional M&A.’

With the right kind of target selection after a thorough analysis of the business model, disruptive M&A may help the acquiring drug companies to go beyond achieving revenue and cost synergies. It can also provide cutting-edge business capabilities, alongside enriching and expanding the talent pool, key business processes, and, of course, the state-of-the-art technology –inorganically.

Initiatives and focus of drug companies of this genre, are expected to be more in the coming years, primarily driven by a new type of value creation to offer a unique disease treatment experience for patients with their respective brands.

A new type of value creation for patients in healthcare space:

It has already started happening in the recent years. For example, Amazon, on January 30, 2018 , announced, it is collaborating with Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, and the bank JP Morgan Chase to create an independent, nonprofit health care company ‘with the goal of increasing user satisfaction and reducing costs.’ They also announced the organizational focus on two of the following areas, which are interesting and unconventional:

Technology solutions that will provide U.S. employees and their families simplified, high-quality and transparent healthcare at a reasonable cost.

Draw on their combined capabilities and resources to take a fresh approach.

As the New York Time (NYT) reported: ‘The alliance was a sign of just how frustrated American businesses are with the state of the nation’s health care system and the rapidly spiraling cost of medical treatment.’ The report further added: ‘It also caused further turmoil in an industry reeling from attempts by new players to attack a notoriously inefficient, intractable web of doctors, hospitals, insurers and pharmaceutical companies.’

Although, this has happened in the United States, it sends a strong signal to the state of things to come sooner than expected in the health care space, dominated, so far, by pure pharma and biotech players, across the world. New types of value creation for patients of similar nature, especially by tech greenhorns in the pharma space, can be wished away at one’s own peril.

Consumer-focused digital companies redefining healthcare value creation:

‘2019 EY M&A Firepower’ report also highlights the innovative efforts of consumer-focused, digital companies to carve out a solid niche for themselves in the pharma dominated health care space. With ‘effective deployment of their ‘connected devices, data analytics skills and deep consumer relationships, these new entrants are positioned to have access to important real-world data that could, in part or in full, determine future product utilization and payment,’ as the report emphasized.

Such fast-evolving development also prompt pharma players to act fast. And the most practical way of doing so, with a high possibility of success, is through disruptive M&A. Ongoing entry of consumer-focused, digital companies in health care increase the urgency for life sciences companies to act, now.

Conclusion:

Thus far, pharma and biotech companies have been engaged in a massive wealth creation for themselves by using their biological and chemical know-how for novel drugs and devices. This ballgame has to change now, ‘as the lines between health and technology continue to blur’, according to the EY Firepower report.

Capabilities of big data and analytics will increasingly be more essential for success, regardless of having a rich pipeline of NCEs and NMEs, even with the potential to achieve blockbuster status in the market. Thus, the ballgame has to change.

Against this backdrop, the key challenge of pharma players for a brighter tomorrow would undoubtedly be ‘holistic value creation.’ Its core purpose should be to deliver a unique patient experience, encompassing the entire disease treatment process – going beyond innovative drugs. One of the quickest routes to create this virtuous cycle, I reckon, is through ‘disruptive M&As – moving away from the traditional model for the same.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Deadly Climate Change Impact On Human Health: How Prepared Is India?

Posted on August 12, 2019 by Tapan Ray

It’s not uncommon to find many people, including heads of countries, expressing their serious apprehensions in public, about the scary impact of climate change. Just the last year, on November 26, 2018, BBC News captured one of such incidences with the astonishing headline: “Trump on climate change report: I don’t believe it.” The findings of this report have underscored, ‘unchecked global warming would wreak havoc on the US economy.’

Similarly, a few years ago, on September 05, 2014,CNN News 18 quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi as saying: “Climate has not changed. We have changed. Our habits have changed,’ while answering to a question on climate change. Regardless of the outcome of any split-hair analysis of the rationale behind such statements from the world leaders, such public discourse could trivialize the possible catastrophic impact of climate change on the planet earth.

Be that as it may, that climate change is taking place, carrying all its ill-effects, is real now, without any ambiguity. There is also widespread consensus among the members of the United Nations that ‘the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented during post hunter-gatherer human existence.’

It is worth noting that way back in 2001, the ‘Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’, further recorded: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities”, most importantly the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

Several ‘International Agreements’, including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change - all supported by hard scientific data, have called for immediate, quantifiable measures in each country to address the ‘wide-ranging environmental threats, such as ozone depletion and long-range transboundary air pollution.’ Against this backdrop, in this article, I shall focus on the dreadful effect of climate change in the proliferation of a wide-variety of ailments, especially infectious diseases, within a few decades. While doing so, let me first have a quick recap on what is ‘Climate Change’, in a simple language.

Climate Change – a quick recap:

According to the United Nations, ‘Climate Change is the defining issue of our time and we are at a defining moment. From shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.’

It’s important to note, although, the planet Earth’s climate is constantly changing over geological time, the current period of warming is occurring more rapidly than many past events. Scientists are concerned that the natural fluctuation or variance, is being overtaken by a rapid human-induced warming, as they emit more greenhouse gases. As these gases get trapped in the atmosphere, more heat is retained that has serious implications for the stability of the planet’s climate, even impacting human health with grave consequences. The World Health Organization (W.H.O) has also warned that the health of millions could be threatened by increases in malaria, waterborne disease and malnutrition.

Its impact human health:

The direct and indirect impact of climate change on human health is profound. Before I go into the specifics, let me indicate some of the direct ones, as captured by the Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington. This is sans any charts and maps, unlike the usual practice:

Increasing temperatures are causing poor air quality that can affect the heart and worsen cardiovascular disease.

Increasing exposure to pollen, molds, and air pollution, all of which can worsen allergies and other lung diseases, such as asthma.

Changes in the geographic range of disease-carrying insects, such as mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and other similar ones, which can fast spread many tropical ailments, such as dengue fever and malaria to humans.

Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events can cause, besides many physical illnesses, several kinds of mental illnesses – increasing both morbidity and mortality.

Frequent flooding events and sea level rise can contaminate water with harmful pathogens and chemicals, potentially causing food-borne and waterborne illnesses.

Changing weather patterns affect the quality and quantity of nutritious foods with increasing incidence of under-nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies.

Additional stress placed on hospital and public health systems, could limit people’s ability to obtain adequate health care during extreme weather events and disease outbreaks.

Most specific and the deadly one:

The World Health Organization (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses,’ clearly flagged that ‘Changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change.’

Citing a pertinent analogy to explain the reason, it said: “Humans have known that climatic conditions affect epidemic diseases from long before the role of infectious agents was discovered, late in the nineteenth century. Roman aristocrats retreated to hill resorts each summer to avoid malaria. South Asians learnt early that, in high summer, strongly curried foods were less likely to cause diarrhea.”

Would pharma players convert these problems into opportunities?

Curiously, some pharmaceutical investors are researching to fathom potential business opportunities lying underneath the above problem, especially for vaccines and newer antimicrobials. It’s probably a blessing in disguise not just for the drug companies, but also for the general public, considering the following two issues, prevailing in the current scenario:

According to W.H.O, Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is an increasingly serious threat to global public health. It threatens the effective prevention and treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi, causing the success of even major surgery and cancer chemotherapy seriously compromised.

‘Pharmaceutical companies are backing away from a growing threat that could kill 10 million people a year by 2050’, reported a July 19, 2018 article. This is because, ‘Antibiotics Aren’t Profitable Enough for Big Pharma to Make More,’ wrote another article, published in Bloomberg Businessweek, on May 3, 2019.

Interestingly, a recent report analyzed and evaluated how this can be done, and which companies will be benefitted most in that process.

“Climate change to fetch a big business opportunity for pharma”:

As reported on July 25, 2019, Morgan Stanley told investors that climate change will cause an increased prevalence and rapid spread of infectious diseases that may be a boon for some drug companies with big vaccine portfolios. It also highlighted, between 383 million and 725 million more people may be exposed to Zika, dengue and other diseases by 2050, depending on the pace and severity of global warming.

The analysts estimated, especially 7 pharma companies will be critical to fighting infectious diseases brought on by climate change. According to the research note of thebank, ‘the USD 500 billion infectious disease market could see demand for an added USD 125 billion in new vaccines, or as much as USD 200 billion assuming premium pricing for more complex new treatments.’

The top possible gainers:

Identifying the top possible gainers, Morgan Stanley apprised, vaccine development being more difficult and expensive, companies that are already in that business will have an upper hand.

Hence, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline are expected at the top, given their existing pipelines and manufacturing capacity. Takeda and Merck both have vaccines in the works for dengue fever, one of the diseases that climate change is likely to exacerbate. Janssen and Pfizer are both active in the vaccines market, but would need to establish new research programs to take on tropical diseases. ‘Moderna’ is also in a good position because it has demonstrated a potential pipeline for drugs combating the Zika virus., as Morgan Stanley further elaborated.

Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley isn’t the only bank looking at investment opportunities from climate change, on July 24, 2019, Goldman Sachs also, reportedly, said it was hiring a sustainable-finance group that is looking into issues related to sustainability. Thus, on the positive side, climate change could fetch a big business opportunity for many pharma players, across the world.

600 million people at risk for climate change in India:

On June 24, 2019, a reputed national business news daily of India reported, “600 million people at risk: Climate change may soon turn critical in India.” Against this threat, the current public health care infrastructure in the country, continues to remain fragile, as stated in India’s National Health Profile, 13^thIssue.

It also states, the cost of treatment has been on the rise in India and it has led to inequity in access to health care services. Intriguingly, the country spends around 1.02 percent of its GDP towards public health, which has remained static to declining over a long period of time. Although, health insurance is a growing segment, it hasn’t taken off fully. Several measures are needed to improve and expand insurance coverage.

Further, according to the report by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) in the US, India is facing shortage of 600,000 doctors and 2 million nurses. This report was widely quoted by the Indian media, on April 14, 2019.

These facts give a perspective on what is India’s level of preparedness to address the critical health issues related to climate change, especially the havoc that the dreaded infectious diseases can cause to so many.

Conclusion:

Astute health policy makers, including a large section of the top political echelon of the country are, apparently, aware of various ill effects of climate change. They also seem to be cognizant that these are likely to accelerate the worsening health problems of the population, including infectious diseases, asthma and other respiratory diseases.

Assuming, new and modern drugs will keep coming to help treat these ailments, do we have a functioning and efficient public health infrastructure to grapple with such issues. What about high out of pocket expenditure towards healthcare for a large section of the population, regardless of Ayushman Bharat?

As the (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses’ recommended, ‘early planning for health is essential to reduce, hopefully avoid, near future and long-term health impacts of global climate change. The optimal solution, however, is in the hands of governments, society and every individual—a commitment to a change in values, to enable a full transition to sustainable development.’

That said, as India is also a signatory to the latest Paris Agreement on Climate Change, can we assume, India will walk the talk to significantly contain its deadly impact on human health? How is India preparing itself to meet this great challenge of Probably it is anybody’s guess, at least, as on date?

By: Tapan J. Ray

While Pharma Leadership Change This Atypical Skill Counts

Posted on July 1, 2019 by Tapan Ray

Effective September 01, 2019, the global pharma major Sanofi will have a new CEO, as the present CEO retires attaining his retirement age of 65 years. This appears to be a mandatory announcement from the company, as is required during the top leadership change in any large and listed organization.

However, there is something novel, as well, in this announcement, especially when specific qualities, skills and experience of the new CEO were highlighted by the company’s Board of Directors. According to Sanofi Press Release, the new CEO – Paul Hudson “has proven his strategic vision, his strong leadership and his ability to achieve the greatest challenges, particularly in terms of innovation and digital transformation.”

Among the stated experience and skills, the one that appeared atypical to me, is the experience of digital transformation, particularly in the position of the CEO of a global pharma major. I In this article, I shall, therefore, explore, why knowledge and experience in this atypical skill is gradually becoming critically important for pharma leadership positions, at all levels.

Why is the need for digital transformation of pharma business?

According to the Internet Trends Report 2019 by Mary Meeker, at 3.8 billion internet users, more than half the world’s population is now online and it is growing. This number would obviously include patients.

As we know, the core purpose of pharma business is to offer a unique patient experience during any disease treatment process. And, the expectations of which from Internet-savvy individuals will be significantly more for various related reasons.

To achieve this objective, drug players would always require to be in sync with customers’ perceptions, expectations and aspirations, among others. Moreover, it’s also not ‘one size fits all’ type of a solution. These will significantly vary for different patient groups, so are the processes of engagement with them – based virtually on real-time information.

Interestingly, the core purpose of digital transformation is also to facilitate this process, with a great amount of precision. The entire process of creating a unique patient experience, involves generation of a massive amount of customized data, customize analysis of which is done through sophisticated analytics, and thereafter, translating and using them as key strategic business inputs, on an ongoing basis. Traditional organizational methods, systems and processes are incapable to deliver the same. Hence arises the crucial need of digital transformation of the organization, across the board.

The transformation is not just about software, hardware and data:

That said, it is also essential to realize that digital transformation is not just about software, high-tech hardware, mobile apps and sophisticated wearables and data. These are, of course, some of the vital tools – used while transforming a company into battle readiness to create and provide a unique customer experience.

Such unique experience for each customer should cover all touchpoints, spanning across – before, during and after treatment with the company’s medication. This, in turn, helps generate an increasing number of prescriptions from doctors, which otherwise would not have been possible, following the conventional means.

Why this atypical skill is in demand today?

Like any other transformation process within an organization, digital transformation should necessarily be driven by the company CEO, having adequate experience in this area. Even the Board of Directors of many pharma players believes that such a CEO can facilitate the process faster and more effectively. Hence, the demand for this atypical skill is increasing, also for a pharma CEO position, besides leaders in various functional areas, as it is being considered as pivotal to achieve the core purpose of a pharma business, in the digital world.

Thus, if a CEO doesn’t properly understand, how the digital world operates with increasing number of visitors in the cyberspace and convinced about its relevance for business excellence, the organization would ultimately lose its competitive edge. One may, therefore, question, did the need for this atypical skill also arise during the selection of the new CEO of Sanofi?

Is this atypical skill for a new CEO more important now?

The answer, I reckon, could be both, ‘probably yes’ and also ‘no’.

‘Probably yes’, mostly because, being an uncommon skill for a pharma CEO, so far, it arrested the attention of many while reading ‘Sanofi Press Release’, for the appointment of their new CEO. Nevertheless, Sanofi is not the first pharma company placing so much of importance on digital transformation, especially for the key leadership positions. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) of February 18, 2018, the CEO of Novartis said: “We need to become a focused medicines company that’s powered by data science and digital technologies.”

Why it is so important for a pharma CEO?

The AT Kearney paper titled, “New Medicine for a New World – Time for Pharma to Dive into Digital,” also captured that an increasing number of pharma customers are now getting engaged and have started interacting in the digital space, more than ever before. This trend is fast going north – becoming an ‘in-thing’ of the industry, as it were. But more probably to be seen as trendy or display that they are also in it, by ‘dipping a toe in the digital waters.’ Whereas, ‘it’s time to take the plunge,’ as the paper cautions them.

‘Plunging into the digital water,’ doesn’t mean sending people to some external training program – with the word ‘digital’ prominently featuring as the course objective. It means bringing out ‘digital transformation’ of the entire organization, spearheaded by the CEO. The leadership of each functional area would then implement from the same playbook, with a structured and custom-made plan designed specifically to achieve the vision, mission, goals and values of the company.

We have recent examples of, at least, two top global pharma majors taking a plunge in the digital water to make the digital transformation of the organization a reality. The key purpose of the same, is to create a unique customer experience, being on the same page with them, in more effective ways, for business excellence. To move in this direction, the organization must imbibe the non-negotiable principle – ‘digital first,’ across the organization.

Only the CEO can decide ‘digital first’ as guiding organizational principle:

None other than the CEO of a drug company, can decide that ‘digital first’ will be the guiding principle of the company, across all the functional areas of the business. As the above paper articulates, it ‘should be explicitly incorporated into core business processes.’ It further says: ‘Top management must challenge any parts of the business that have not explicitly considered the opportunities from digital in their plans.’

Functional leaders to be in sync with digital transformation:

All in the pharma organization, across all functions, must work for the end consumer of any pharma business – the patients. Every single employee in the company should strive delighting them with the company’s products and services, at every touchpoints, during their quest for relief from illnesses. As I said before, this is the single most important factor that determines not just the pace of growth of a drug company, but help enhance its reputation, too. It goes without saying, its ultimately the patients who are playing a catalytic role in the digital transformation of an organization.

It is essential for the CEO to make sure that entire corporate, functional and even departmental leadership teams are in tune with the need of digital transformation of the organization. Despite the detail explanation, if some remain unconvinced about the rationale behind the transformation of the core business process, the right leader should assume the responsibility.

This is because, even with one loose knot at the leadership level in this area, the entire objective can seriously get thwarted – down the line. Such changes, as, if and when required, can be achieved in various different ways, not through attrition alone. For example, by encouraging them to work with members of his peer group who can set good examples to emulate.

Brand promotion to physicians will still remain as important:

In tandem, no company should lose sight of the fact that their face-to-face interaction with physicians, will continue to play an important role in brand promotion. Primarily because, doctors and hospitals help patients to get desired solace from ill-health by prescribing recommended medicines, and consequently, will keep prevailing as an integral part of the pharma marketing process, supported directly or indirectly by every employee in the company.

The key challenge in digital transformation:

The key challenge in the digital transformation of a pharma company is broadly possible inflexible or a rigid mindset of some of its leaders. This is generally fueled by the fear of moving out of their respective comfort zones – rather than resources and expertise required to make the technology put to use. A well-running-business with a grand idea for the future, will generally be able to garner necessary resources and other wherewithal, without much problem.

All pharma leaders should always consider themselves as an important solution for the future success of the organization, Otherwise, he or she may be construed as a part of the problem and a hindrance in achieving the corporate goal and should make way for the capable ones, in this area. Hence, selecting leaders with the right spirit to make digital transformation effective, is so critical for the CEO.

To commence this journey, the leaders may either be willing to acquire the experience of a disruptive digital transformation, guided by the domain experts or may be recruited from outside having the necessary experience. Collective and well-coordinated steps towards this transformation can neither be tentative, nor should it commence without having the right leader at the right place with required will and experience.

Digital players entering into health space with game changing ideas:

Pharma players should also note, how the big technology companies, such as, Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon, besides many startups, are trying to create space for themselves in the health care arena. Several of them are also trying to reinvent health care with zest, much beyond what traditional drug companies could even envisage, till recently.

The digital transformation of the organization would help drug players to align the company’s business model with the tech companies in those specific areas to reap a rich harvest. More opportunities will also unfold – either to collaborate with them for targeted projects or moving into the tech space with well-calibrated measures, for business synergy. Without digital transformation of business, either facing such competition or benefitting from the available opportunities, will be challenging for drug companies.

Conclusion:

In the digital world, while patients are emerging as a key driver of change in the health care space, traditional pharma operational systems, including sales and marketing are likely to give a diminishing return on investment. Although, many drug companies can sense this ongoing metamorphosis, several of them are still wondering how to go about it. Moreover, to test the ‘digital water’, some of them have started converting several traditional operational methods, systems and processes in the digital format, as well. Yet, are unable to fathom, why such efforts are not clicking – leading to a quantum increase in the operational efficiency – in pursuit of excellence.

The good news is, global pharma organizations, such as, Sanofi and Novartis, besides several others, have realized that incremental performance improvements with small tweaking here or there, across the organization, aren’t just enough. The corporation needs to move towards a holistic digital transformation, spearheaded by its CEO, having experience in this process. This new breed of pharma CEOs, well-supported by his team of leaders, fostering a burning desire to produce pace setting results, can usher in this ‘disruptive’ transformation. Because, they realize, traditional pharma operational systems, when tempered through the fire of the digital transformation process, can yield game changing outcomes for the organization. The entire process, as it comes to fruition, helps delivering greater customer value, creating a unique customer experience – similar to what customers want – on an ongoing basis.

In fine, strategic intervention of this genre, initiated by the CEO and cascading down the organizational hierarchy, creates a whole new patient-centric outcome, which is much more than what a company can get through re-engineering the operational processes. Hence, especially the young mangers of date, may wish to note note that during virtually every leadership transition, this atypical skill is now likely count much more than ever before – with an ascending trend.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Continues ‘The Cat And Mouse Game’ In Pharma Business?

Posted on June 24, 2019 by Tapan Ray

Many are already aware of the critical factors that make generic drugs so important for patients – virtually for all. These don’t just facilitate greater access to health care – offering affordable alternatives to high-priced off-patent innovative drugs. This is as relevant in the largest pharma market in the world – the United States (US), just as in India. Let me illustrate this point with two examples – one from the US and the other from India.

According to US-FDA, ‘9 out of 10 prescriptions filled, are for generic drugs’ in the United states, as off-patent branded generic drugs cost more than their generic equivalents. The US drug regulator explains, ‘Increasing the availability of generic drugs helps to create competition in the marketplace, which then helps to make treatment more affordable and increases access to healthcare for more patients.’

However, unlike the US, there prevails a unique perception difference even within generic drugs – between branded and unbranded generics. The Indian Survey, undertaken to review and analyze various facts on branded and equivalent unbranded generic medicines, found a huge difference in prices between them in the country. Interestingly, as the researchers also noted, although, more consumers want an economical alternative to high priced branded generics, most physicians do not prefer unbranded generic medicines.

There is another important point worth noting regarding India made generic drugs. Although, Indian pharma sector caters to around 40 percent of generic demand in the US, as IBEF reports, many Americans nurture serious apprehensions on the quality of generic drugs manufactured even by India’s top drug companies.

This is quite similar to apprehension that exists in India between the quality branded and unbranded generic medicines in India. The only difference is – the above perception in India is not based on impartial and credible scientific studies, whereas it is not so in America. The New York Times report, published on May 11, 2019 vindicates this point. It questioned: “Americans Need Generic Drugs. But Can They Trust Them? The fake quality-control data, bird infestations and toxic impurities at the overseas plants that could be making your medication.” Incidentally, there aren’t any such large-scale accusations regarding dubious quality of drugs manufactured by Big Pharma.

On the other hand, big pharma players have long been accused of drug price gouging or price-fixing of life-saving drugs, primarily to maximize earnings by ‘extending’ product patent-life. Curiously, in recent times, even the generic drug players are being accused of following a similar practice. Thus, in this article, I shall explore how generic drug players are also trying to hoodwink measures to bring down the drug price, either through price control or through the encouragement of intense competition – playing a ‘cat and mouse game’, as it were, whenever an opportunity comes. If it continues and probably it will, what is the way ahead? Let me begin by recapitulating a historic pace-setting move in the global generic market by an Indian drug player.

A historic pace-setting move by an Indian generic drug player:

Being a major exporter of generic drugs in many developed, developing and even poor countries around the world, India is often termed as ‘the pharmacy of the world.’ That apart, a historical move in this space, by a top domestic player – Cipla, earned global accolades, at the turn of this new millennium. In 2001, Cipla slashed the price of its triple-therapy drug ”cocktails” for HIV-AIDS – being sold by MNCs, ranging from USD 10,000/ USD 15,000 a year to USD 350 a year per patient to a doctors’ group working in Africa.With the generic industry’s focus on a deeper bottom line, the scenario has changed now. Finding ways and means for the price increase, evading both competitive pressure and also drug price control, as in India, has turned into a ‘cat and mouse game’, as it were.

Generic drug pricing – ‘a cat and mouse game?’

Pricing pressure, especially for generic drugs, from patients, payers, politicians and governments, is gradually becoming more intense. More the pressure greater is the effort of affected players to come out of it, in any way –akin to a ‘cat and mouse game’, as it were. Although, it has recently started in the USA, the same exists in India, since 1970, when the first drug price control was introduced in the country. Intriguingly, in the midst of this toughest ever drug price control, phenomenal rise of almost all top Indian companies, including the top ranked company in the Indian pharma market commenced – from scratch. Nonetheless, to get a feel of how is this game being played out, let me start with the Indian scenario.

How this game is played in India to evade price control:

Instead of taking a deep dive into the history of drug price control in India, let me give a bird’s eye view of a few mechanisms, out of many, used to evade price control, since it commenced. The idea is to give just a feel of how this ‘cat and mouse game’ game pans out, with a few of such examples in a sequential order, since 1970, as much as possible, by:

Including price decontrolled molecule in the FDC formulations.
Replacing a price-controlled molecule by a similar decontrolled one, keeping the brand name unchanged, when the number of controlled molecules came down.
Making a major shift towards selling more of higher-priced decontrolled molecules, jettisoning low priced controlled molecules.
Resorting to vigorous campaigns, when the government started encouraging prescription of low-priced generic molecules, to ensure further shift to branded FDC prescriptions, alongside image enhancement of branded generics over equivalent unbranded ones. Its outcome is visible in the above Indian Survey on the image of branded and unbranded generics.

Has Indian pharma industry succeeded in this game?

It appears so and gets reflected in the CAGR of the industry. According to IBEF, “The country’s pharmaceutical industry is expected to expand at a CAGR of 22.4 per cent over 2015–20 to reach US$ 55 billion.” I underscore, this is value growth.

Thus, the point, I reckon, that the government should ponder: How both can happen, at the same time – price control is bringing down drug prices, extending real benefits to patients on the ground, and at the same time the industry is recording an impressive growth rate in value terms? Whatever it means, let’s now try to explore, how such ‘cat and mouse game’ is being played to increase generic drug prices in the United States.

How similar game is played in the US to increase generic drug price:

On May 10, 2019, international media reported that ‘44 US states announced a lawsuit alleging an anti-competitive conspiracy to artificially inflate prices for more than 100 drugs, some by more than 1,000 percent.’ This lawsuit is based on an investigation involving a number of generic drug companies. The process, which took five-years to complete, accused twenty generic drug players. Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, whose parent company is based in Israel was, reportedly, named as the ringleader of the price-fixing. The company raised prices of around 112 generic formulations.

Other companies, reportedly, named in the complaint, include Pfizer, Novartis subsidiary Sandoz, Mylan, and seven Indian drug companies, including Lupin, Aurobindo, Dr. Reddy’s, Wockhardt, Taro Pharmaceutical Industries (a subsidiary of Sun Pharma) and Glenmark. Some of the 15 senior company executives who were individually named in the lawsuit for their involvementin this alleged “multibillion-dollar fraud ”belong to Teva, Sandoz and Mylan.

The ‘cat and mouse game’ in this case is slightly different. Instead of government price control, the US drug regulator encouraged intense generic competition to bring down the price. When the priced did not come down as expected, the State of Connecticut, reportedly, began investigating select generic drug price increases in July 2014. Subsequently, other states also joined the investigation, and uncovered the reason for prices not coming down.

According to the complaint, between July 2013 and January 2015, Teva significantly raised prices on approximately 112 different generic drugs. Of those 112 different drugs, Teva had colluded with its competitors on at least 86 of them. The complaint noted: “Teva had understandings with its highest quality competitors to lead and follow each other’s price increases, and did so with great frequency and success, resulting in many billions of dollars of harm to the national economy over a period of several years.” In this way, the impact of intense competition on drug prices, was made ineffective.

Not the first time, it was detected:

The 2019 anti-trust lawsuit against the generic drug makers may be ‘the biggest price-fixing scheme in the US history’, but not the first lawsuit of this kind in America. A similar lawsuit for illegal price-fixing against six generic companies, was filed by the states in 2016, as well, which is still being litigated. The 2019 case is a sweeping version of the same and is the result of a much wider investigation. It indicates, instead of taking corrective measures, the ‘cat and mouse game’ still continues. However, almost all the companies have vehemently denied this allegation.

Is this game existential in nature of the business?

One may well argue that such ‘cat and mouse game’ with the government is existential in nature, for the generic drug business. When price control or intense market competition brings down the price to such a level, it becomes a matter of survival of most businesses. There doesn’t seem to remain enough financial interest for them to remain in the market. If and when it happens, causing shortage of cheaper generic drugs, patients’ health interest gets very adversely affected. It also prompts the manufacturers to find a way out for the survival of the business. This is understandable. But it needs to be established, supported by scientific studies.

An off the cuff solution:

A general and off the cuff solution to the above issue would naturally be, there should be a right balance between affordability of most consumers and the business interest of the drug makers. This broad pointer is also right and understandable. But again, no one knows the expected upper limit of the generic drug profit margin for their manufacturers – where hardly any breakthrough and cost-intensive R&D is involved. Equally challenging is to know – below what margin, generic players, by and large, loose interest in this business?

What do some available facts indicate?

According to the year-end report of the Pharmaceutical Export Promotion Council (Pharmexcil) the total pharma exports from India has been pegged at USD 19.14 billion for 2018-19. This represents a growth of 10.72 per cent over USD 17.28 billion in thelast year. It further reported, “The top 25 export destinations contribute 76.52 per cent of the formulation exports amounting to USD 10.38 billion. Among these, the US continues to be the largest export destination with over 38.62 per cent of the total generic exports to that country at USD 5.24 billion.” Does it mean business as usual, despite ‘price-fixing’ law suits in the US, since 2016?

Similar impression one would probably get from the Indian scenario, as well. Notably, despite price control, which is continuing since last five decades, the growth rate of the Indian pharma market, which is dominated by branded generics, remains very impressive.According to the January 2019 report of IBEF: “The country’s pharmaceutical industry is expected to expand at a CAGR of 22.4 per cent over 2015–20 to reach USD 55 billion.” So also the same game, probably!

Conclusion:

It appears, there is certainly a huge reputation or image crisis for the generic drug industry, as such, due to such alleged delinquencies. However, from the business perspective, the manufacturers are still having enough leeway to move on with similar measures, supported by fresh thinking. At the same time, it seems unlikely to have any form of drug price control in the United States, at least, in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, price pressure due to cut-throat competition could even be more intensive, as it gets reflected even in the US-FDA statements.

Nearer home, the Indian generic drug business has been hit with a double whammy – allegations for dubious drug quality standards, on the one hand, and price manipulation on the other, besides dented reputation and image – widening trust gap with patients and governments.

Moreover, unlike the best export market even for generic drugs – the United States, India has been following some patchy policy measures for health care, as a whole. The drug price control system is one such. Till a holistic policy on health care is put in place for all, backed by an effective monitoring system, The Indian price control system may remain like a ‘maze’, as it were, with several ways to hoodwink it.

Hence, the ‘cat and mouse game’, albeit in a different format, is likely to continue, until one gets caught, or till all concerned puts their act together – putting patients at the center of the core business strategy.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Creating Satisfied Patients Begins With Developing Satisfied Employees

Posted on May 6, 2019 by Tapan Ray

‘The core issue in health care is the value of health care delivered,’ wrote Michael Porter in a paper titled, ‘Value-Based Health Care Delivery,’ published by the Institute of Strategy & Competitiveness of Harvard Business School (ISC-HBS) on January 15, 2014.

Building on this concept, EY in its 2018 edition of ‘New horizons: Executive insights on the future of health’ articulated: ‘Value-driven care means delivering the best clinical outcomes with optimized costs, while delivering a satisfying experience for patients and providers.’

Creating a ‘satisfying patient experience’ – or ‘satisfied patients’ for its brands, being the ultimate objective of a drug company, I shall add an interesting dimension to it, in this article. And that is: Will it necessitate creating satisfying employees within the organization to achieve this goal? To build a right perspective in this direction, let me begin with the core concept of Michael Porter on this subject. This starts with – what is generally regarded as ultimate ‘value’ to patients, in healthcare delivery?

Defining ultimate ‘value’ in health care delivery:

Porter defined this ‘value’ as ‘patient health outcomes per dollar spent’. He also made some key assertions in this context, which I am summarizing below:

Delivering high and improving value is the fundamental purposeof health care.
Value is the only goal that can unite the interestsof all system participants.
Creating positive-sum competition on value for patients is fundamental to health care reform in every country.

Are these assertions attainable?

To create ‘Value-Based Health Care Delivery (VBH),’ the people would also need a ‘Value-Based Pharma Industry (VBP)’, delivering ‘Value-Based Medicine (VBM)’, for all. The three key principles for any VBM are considered as follows:

Thoroughly selected values must be based on the best research evidence available and applied as treatment options.

Values for patients are converted into measurable utility values to facilitate the integration.

The cost-utility level expected from selecting a particular treatment option is the basis for decision-making.

In other words, the whole purpose of offering a VBM is to provide cost effective, science-based healthcare that incorporates patient values. Nonetheless, effective implementation of both VBH and VBM would entail a radically different leadership mindset, with quite a different set of success requirements, both globally and locally.

To drive home this point, let me illustrate just the third point of the Porter’s model of VBH, as quoted above. This clearly articulates: ‘Creating positive-sum competition on value for patients is fundamental to health care reform in every country.’ But the current reality of ‘competition’ in the drug industry is far from what it should be, as evident from one of the Brookings studies.

How competitive is the pharma industry to reduce cost of health care?

The Brookings paper titled, ‘Enabling competition in pharmaceutical markets,’ published on May 02, 2017 shares its research findings on the subject, which in a broader context include the following points:

Over the years, industry participants have managed to disable many of the competitive mechanisms and create niches in which drugs can be sold with little to no competition.

When manufacturers can earn high profits by lobbying for regulations that weaken competition, or by developing mechanisms to sidestep competition – the system no longer incentivizes the invention of valuable drugs – incentivizes firms to locate regulatory niches where they are safe from competition on the merits with rivals.

But, health care system performs well when competitive forces are strong, yielding low prices for consumers, as well as innovation that they value.

Weak competitive forces often lead to a lack of market discipline with high drug prices and are more damaging to in the pharma consumers than some other sectors.

Without strong competitive conditions, healthcare expenditure will continue to grow, inviting public demand for drug price regulation through legislation.

These findings provide enough reasons to ponder how to overcome the barrier of ‘Creating positive-sum competition on value for patients’ to move towards VBH.

The good news is, VBH concept was soon put to use:

The good news is, soon after publication of Michael Porter’s paper – ‘Value-Based Health Care Delivery’ by (ISC-HBS) on January 15, 2014, it was put to practice by the American College of Cardiology (ACC).The article titled, ‘A New Era of Value-Driven Pharmaceuticals’, published by Health Standards on May 21, 2014, reported it.

The article wrote, at the end of March, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American Heart Association (AHA) issued a joint statement saying they “will begin to include value assessments when developing guidelines and performance measures (for pharmaceuticals), in recognition of accelerating health care costs and the need for care to be of value to patients.”

The authors pondered, ‘are we entering a new era of value-based medications or value-driven pharma?’ There are several such reports. For example, another article titled, ‘Value-based healthcare’, published by the ‘Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM)’ observed, value-based healthcare has emerged as a field of its own – feet firmly founded in ‘Evidence-based Medicine’ or ‘Value-Based-Medicine.

VBH concept is slowly gaining acceptance:

EY in its 2018 edition of ‘New horizons: Executive insights on the future of health’ also reiterated this point. The paper mentioned, ‘the trends of reducing costs and improving outcomes show no sign of receding, and new models for delivering health care are only adding pressure to traditional brick and mortar facilities.’ It further highlighted, some pharma companies have started systematically reviewing the business processes, procedure and patient interface within the organization to identify and eliminate waste and inefficiency.

But, still a lot of ground to cover:

In this regard, EY Health Advisory Survey 2017 came out with several interesting findings based on the responses of 700 qualified healthcare professionals. One such finding is, although high importance is attributed to creating both – a good ‘patient experience’ and a meaningful ‘patient engagement’, but a lot less is done on the ground. This was supported by the following data:

93 percent of respondents reported, they are undertaking ‘patient experience’ initiative that year, but only 26 percent of them selected patient access or satisfaction as one of the top three for the same.

Although 81 percent of the professionals said ‘patient engagement’ is considerably important to them, but most of the top initiatives undertaken by their organizations don’t directly involve soliciting and analyzing patients’ needs and wants.

‘Employees satisfaction’ a prerequisite for ‘patient satisfaction’:

The same EY Health Advisory Survey 2017, found many respondents articulating that ‘employee satisfaction’ is a prerequisite to ‘patient satisfaction’. However, its importance gets diluted whiling translating the same into reality, as vindicated by the following finding:

51 percent of respondents believe that employee satisfaction in health care drives patient satisfaction, but only 35 percent said that their organizations have already initiatives underway to create more positive work and environment. Interestingly, only 10 percent of them have undertaken any employee satisfaction survey soliciting employee input.

It is quite apparent from this situation that leaders of respective organizations don’t walk the talk, especially in this critical area. Harmonization of ‘patient satisfaction’ as a critical success factor for delivering VBH, with the core business value of the company, is not taking place. A deep-rooted belief that success in developing mostly transactional and partly emotional relationship with the heavy prescribers is the only ‘magic wand’ for business success in pharma. Thus, the old habits die hard, even today.

Conclusion:

Despite several barriers in its way, for a long-term survival in business, hopefully, many pharma companies would willy-nilly move towards delivering ‘value-based health care’ through ‘value-based medicine.’ This would necessitate having a clear goal to create an increasing number of satisfied patients for the brands. There are ample evidences today that ‘employee satisfaction’ is a basic prerequisite to ‘patient satisfaction’, where many drug companies are lagging behind, significantly.

Only the movers and shakers in the senior leadership of pharma industry can break this status-quo. It may be initiated with – example-setting activities, which should enable giving shape to developing a set of standard operating procedure – culminating into the culture and value for the organization.

Nurturing humane approach to employee commitment for creating satisfied employees is the primary step of this important initiative. Then, encouraging their active participation – willingly, to bring patients at the center stage of pharma business, should be the ongoing process. It’s, therefore, imperative to note - the goal of creating ‘satisfied patients’, should always begin with developing ‘satisfied employees.’

By: Tapan J. Ray

For Affordable Access To Quality Healthcare in India, Invest Where The Mouth Is

Posted on March 25, 2019 by Tapan Ray

On September 25, 2018, well-hyped Ayushman Bharat – National Health Protection Scheme (AB-NHPS), touted as the largest health scheme in the world, was launched in India. Prior to its launch, while announcing the scheme on August 15, 2018 from the Red Fort,Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “The healthcare initiatives of the government will have a positive impact on 50 Crore Indians,” as it aims to provide a coverage of Rs 5 lakh per family annually, benefiting more than 10 Crore poor families.

Before this scheme was introduced, there were several public funded health schemes in India, introduced by different governments, like National Rural and Urban Health Mission (NRHM and NUHM), Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana etc. Reports also capture that since independence efforts were ongoing in this area. But none worked, due to shoddy implementation. Let’s await the outcome of yet another new health scheme, introduced by yet another government – AB-NHPS.

According to the Government Press Release of January 11, 2019: Ayushman Bharat – Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY) aims to provide health coverage during secondary and tertiary hospitalization of around 50 Crore beneficiaries, allocating a sum of up to Rs. 5 Lakh per family per year. The key words that need to be noted is ‘the health coverage during hospitalization’. It also doesn’t cover primary care. Interestingly, some of the larger states, such as Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Delhi are, reportedly, yet to come on board, Odisha has refused to be a part of the scheme.

Conceptually, the above new health initiative, aimed at the poor, is praiseworthy. However, its relevance in reducing a significant chunk of one of the highest, if not the highest, ‘Out of Pocket (OoP’) expenses towards health in India, raises more questions than answers.

This is because, whether annual ‘OoP’ for health, incurred by the country’s poor population, goes more for hospitalization than Primary Health Care (PHC) involving common illnesses, is rather clear today. In this article, I shall dwell on this subject, supported by credible published research data.

But ‘the Primary Health Care (PHC) is in shambles’:

Since the focus of (AB-NHPS) on ‘secondary and tertiary hospitalization’, one may get a feeling that the primary public health care system in India is, at least, decent.

But the stark reality is different. The article titled, ‘Five paradoxes of Indian Healthcare,’ published inThe Economic Times on July 27, 2018 describes the situation eloquently. It says: ‘While the Supreme Court has held health care to be a fundamental right under Article 21 of the Constitution…The fundamental aspect of health care – the primary health care is in shambles. There is only one primary health care center (often manned by one doctor) for more than 51,000 people in the country.’

In addition, the World Bank Report also flags: ‘The tenuous quality of public health assistance is reflected in the observation that 80 percent of health spending is for private health services, and that the poor frequently bypass public facilities to seek private care.’ Although, World Bank underscored this problem sometime back, it persists even today, sans any significant change.

PHC has the potential to address 90 percent of health care needs:

For the better health of citizens, and in tandem to contain disease progression that may require hospitalization for secondary and tertiary care, government focus on effective disease prevention and access to affordable and high quality PHC for all, is necessary. ‘Evidences gathered by the World Bank have also highlighted that primary care is capable of managing 90 percent of health care demand, with only the remaining 10 percent requiring services associated with hospitals.’

Another article titled, ‘Without Primary Health Care, There Is No Universal Health Coverage,’ published in Life – A HuffPost publication on December 14, 2016, also vindicates this point. It emphasized: ‘Primary health care (PHC) has the potential to address 90 percent of health care needs. However, country governments spend, on average, only one third of their health budgets on PHC.’ The situation in India is no different, either.

This basic tenet has been accepted by many countries with ample evidences of great success in this direction. Curiously, in India, despite the public PHC system being in shambles, the government’s primary focus is on something that happens only after a disease is allowed to progress, virtually without much medical intervention, if at all.

Key benefits of a strong PHC system:

As established by several research papers, such as one appeared in the above HuffPost publication, and also by other research studies, I am summarizing below the key benefits of having an affordable and strong PHC network in the country:

Can manage around 90 percent of the population’s health care need, patients would require hospitalization for specialists care only 10 percent of the time.

Can help people prevent diseases, like malaria or dengue, alongside effectively assist them in managing chronic conditions, such as hypertension or diabetes, to avert associated complications that may require secondary or tertiary care.

At the country level, a strong PHC system would help detect and screen illnesses early, offering prompt and effective treatment. The system, therefore, will support a healthier population, and would ‘offer much more than simple reduction of the costs of a country’s health.’

A country can ensure greater health equity by providing PHC advantages of greater accessibility to the community, and across the social gradient.

In short: ‘The continuity and doctor–patient relationships offered by family oriented primary care, alongside the patient education, early intervention and treatment, chronic disease management, counseling and reassurance offered to patients would be impossible to provide in a secondary care setting.’

Thus, establishing a robust network of high-quality public PHC facilities in the country is a necessity. Simultaneously, patients should be made aware of visiting the nearest PHC as their first stop for affordable treatment, when they fall ill.

Annual ‘OoP expenses’ more on ‘out-patient care’ than ‘hospitalization’:

For illustration, I shall provide examples from just two studies, among several others, which found, average ‘OoP expenditure’ per family in a year, is more for ‘out-patient care’ than ‘hospitalization.’

Since long, ‘OoP expenditure’ on hospitalization was being considered as the most important reason for impoverishment. Probably, this is the reason why various governments in India, had launched various health schemes, covering hospitalization expenses of a large section of the poor population in the country. The most recent one being – Ayushman Bharat-National Health Protection Scheme (AB-NHPS), often termed as ‘Modicare’, launched in September 25, 2018.

That total ‘OoP expenses’ are more on ‘out-patient care’ than ‘hospitalization’ was emphasized even in the 2016 research article titled, ‘Out-of-Pocket Spending on Out-Patient Care in India: Assessment and Options Based on Results from a District Level Survey,’ published online by PLoS One on November 18, 2016.

Highlighting that ‘OoP spending’ at ‘Out-Patient Departments (OPD)’ or in clinics by households is relatively less analyzed compared to hospitalization expenses in India, the results indicate:

Economically vulnerable population spend more on OPD as a proportion of per capita consumption expenditure.

‘Out-patient care’ remains overwhelmingly private and switches of providers -while not very prevalent – is mostly towards private providers.

High quality and affordable public providers tend to lower OPD spending significantly.

Improvement in the overall quality and accessibility of government OPD facilities still remains an important tool that should be considered in the context of financial protection.

Let me now cite the second example – analyzing the 60th national morbidity and healthcare survey of the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), the study found, ‘outpatient care is more impoverishing than inpatient care in urban and rural areas alike.’

Expert committee’s recommendations for focus on ‘primary care’ went unheeded:

That the government focus on public health care should be on PHC, along with prevention and early management of health problems, was recommended by ‘The High-Level Expert Group Report on Universal Health Coverage, for India.’ This committee was instituted by the then ‘Planning Commission’ of the country on November 2011. The report also suggested, such measures would help reduce the need of secondary and tertiary care, significantly. But not much attention seems to have been paid even on these critical recommendations.

Conclusion:

Going by what Indian government says, I believe, its ultimate goal is providing access to affordable Universal Health Care (UHC), for all. That’s indeed commendable. But as various research papers clearly indicates, the country will first ‘need to invest in a ‘primary-care-centered’ health delivery system, if universal access to health care is to be realized, ultimately.

From this perspective, Ayushman Bharat – National Health Protection Scheme (AB-NHPS) may be a good initiative. But it does not seem to merit being the primary focus area of the government in public health care. And, not more than establishing high quality and robust ‘primary health care’ infrastructure, across the country, for all. Nor will AB-NHPS be able to address higher average of out-of-pocket ‘outpatient expenses’ of those people who need help in this area, the most.

Considering the critical public health care issue in India holistically, I reckon, for providing affordable access to health care for all, the top most priority of the Government should be to invest first where the mouth is – to create affordable primary healthcare infrastructure of a decent quality, with easy access for all.

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

Tag Archives: care

Honing Patient Outcomes With WHDs

Is India in The Eye of The AMR Storm?

The Challenge of Holistic Value Creation With Pharma M&A

Deadly Climate Change Impact On Human Health: How Prepared Is India?

While Pharma Leadership Change This Atypical Skill Counts

Continues ‘The Cat And Mouse Game’ In Pharma Business?

Creating Satisfied Patients Begins With Developing Satisfied Employees

For Affordable Access To Quality Healthcare in India, Invest Where The Mouth Is