Tag Archives: COVID-19

With Covid’s Second Wave ‘A Nation In Distress’ – Why?

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If someone tries to see a silver lining in the disruptive Covid-19 pandemic, besides its vaccine rollout in some countries, there will be at least one. As of April 17, 2021- over 119 million patients (India – over 12 million), reportedly, have recovered out of 141 million (India – over 15 million) of Covid infected patients.

But this can’t mask the grim reality of over 18 million patients remain still infected, with over 3 million deaths (India – 175,673), since the beginning of the Covid menace. In the Indian perspective, this is the highest ever incidence of death – in absolute numbers – for any reason, so far. Now comes the Covid second wave with its more devastation onslaught on human lives and other consequences for the nation.

In this article, I shall explore this area, as apparently a Tsunami-like the second Covid wave starts sweeping across the India states, posing a greater danger than the first one, to the lives and livelihoods of millions of Indians, yet again. Let me start with a perspective, leading to the current situation.

No clinically proven drugs, as yet:

There aren’t any definite or clinically proven drugs after completion of Phase III studies, as yet, for curing patients from Covid infection. Nor are there any such well proven vaccines with fully known efficacy, safety, time interval between two doses, duration of prevention from Covid infection, in the future. All drugs and vaccines are currently being used under ‘emergency use’ approval by country drug regulators, based on interim results.

At the very onset of Covid-19 first wave, other than some attempts of repurposing older drugs, the world did not have any proven drugs to fight against this deadly infection. The old antimalarial drug Hydroxychloroquine – was tried first, followed by other medications, such as, Lopinavir/Ritonavir. Both created a huge global demand and subsequent shortages, including in the pharmacy of the world– India. Subsequently, W.H.O discontinued hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir treatment arms for COVID-19 based on interim clinical trial data. These results showed, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir produce little or no reduction in the mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients when compared to standard of care.

At the beginning of the second wave of Covid-19, one of the latest repurposed drugs – remdesivir that is being widely used, especially for hospitalized patients, is also facing a shortage, even in the pharmacy of the world. Interestingly, even ‘Remdesivir has little or no impact on survival, WHO trial shows’.

Also – no clinically fully proven Covid-19 vaccines, as yet:

Possibly, the second-best antidote as of date, against rapidly mutating Covid-19 – after Covid-appropriate behavior by all, comes vaccines. All comes with ‘emergency use’ approval, based on interim results only, and with several challenges. These include efficacy against all mutating Covid-19 variants, exact safety profile, dosage interval and duration of protection. Interestingly, on April 16, 2021, Pfizer indicated that ‘Covid-19 vaccine recipients will “likely” need a third dose between six to 12 months after they’re fully vaccinated and suggested vaccinations for coronavirus could be needed every year.’ In this evolving scenario, Indian experts also acknowledge that - abidance to the defined health norms stays as a lifeguard, and will remain so for an indefinite period.

Several countries, including India, are making, and gradually expanding requisite arrangements to vaccinate their population. Whereas a large number of countries – mostly in the developing world, are still awaiting access to Covid vaccines. Meanwhile, another issue has started bothering many, which the April 10, 2021 issue of The Guardian had captured in its headline – ‘Global Covid vaccine rollout is threatened by a shortage of vital components,’ besides manufacturing capacity constraints compared to the current demand.

Global challenges with Covid vaccines in 2021:

As things have progressed with Covid vaccines, thus far, the year 2021 doesn’t seem to be a smooth run to vaccinate people across the world, deriving a significant outcome against the battle of this global menace. This gets vindicated by the following numbers, as published in the ‘Down to Earth’ magazine on April 13, 2021.

  • According to the Johns Hopkins University, United States, as of April 12, 2021, only 773 million Covid-19 vaccines had been administered across the world. This means, only a little more than 2 per cent of the world’s adult population, has been inoculated so far.
  • According to data analytics firm Airfinity, the world will manufacture 9.5 billion doses by the end 2021. Whereas immediate global need exceeds 14 billion doses to vaccinate the entire adult population.
  • According to Gavi – The Vaccine Alliance, this represents almost three times the number of vaccines the world was producing in the pre-pandemic period for other diseases.

In the midst of these, inoculation with, at least, two major Covid-19 vaccines – one from AstraZenecaand other from Johnson & Johnson, have raised safety concern in the United States and many European countries. These ongoing developments complicate Covid vaccine challenges further.

The Indian scenario – ‘a nation in distress?’

Despite building new and a workable emergency health infrastructure by several state governments to combat Covid-19 pandemic, the fierce attack of the second wave with mutating Covid-19 virus, has already made these bursting at the seams. The article - ‘A tsunami of cases’: desperation as Covid second wave batters India, appeared in ‘The Guardian’ on April 14, 2021, captures this desperate struggle of the nation. Another recent report depicted with grim pictures, how India is grappling with the second wave of Covid-19, terming it as ‘a nation in distress.’ There are enough indications that India’s fragile health infrastructure has already collapsed in some places.

According to another news item on April 14, 2021, more than 111 million people has been vaccinated in India, by that time. Notably, this number was achieved after fears of AstraZeneca’s Covishield vaccine shortages, which subsequently prompted the Indian Government to temporarily halt its exports by the Pune-based vaccine manufacturer – Serum Institute of India (SII).

Going by another estimate, if the current momentum continues, India would be able to vaccinate 40% of its population by December 2021, and 60% of the population by May 2022. The report cautions that ‘the non-availability of vaccines may scuttle the pace.’ As per the W.H.O release, three in five Indians need to be vaccinated, to reach herd immunity. For which, the country needs 145 crore doses of vaccine by May 2022. India currently has the capacity to manufacture 100 crore-130 crore doses per year, as per a Rajya Sabha committee report. Another report of April 10, 2021 also highlights, ‘at least 10 states in India have reported a vaccine shortage and many vaccine centers have been reported shut.’

My wife and I also experienced the Covishield vaccine shortage in Mumbai. Our scheduled online appointment for vaccination through Co-Win website of the Government at Sir HN Reliance Hospital,Girgaon, Mumbai, for April 17, 2021, was cancelled. At past 10 pm on April 16, 2021, the hospital rang us up to inform that they have closed their Covid vaccination center till fresh vaccine stocks reach them.

To combat the Covid pandemic – ‘Pharmacy of the World’ goes local:

Yes, to combat the Covid pandemic, the ‘Pharmacy of the World’ goes local for some critical Covid drugs and vaccines, several times in the past. This happened earlier with drugs, like Hydroxychloroquine, when India banned its export to cater to the domestic need for Covid treatment. It happened again now, as ‘Remdesivir, API and formulation were placed under Export ban on 11.04.2021.’

Similarly, India has now, reportedly, put a temporary hold on all major exports of the AstraZeneca’sCoronavirus vaccine (Covishield in India), made by the SII, amid an increase in domestic demand due to a surge in infection. As the news item highlights: ‘It will also affect supplies to Gavi, the W.H.O backed vaccine alliance, through which more than 190 participating economies – 98 higher-income and 92 low and middle-income, are expected to get vaccine doses.’ Such temporary measures are now necessary for India to effectively respond to India’s Covid fight – especially the vaccine crunch.

India’s current vaccine imbroglio, as Covid second wave strikes hard:

Besides the SII, a second Indian company — Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech, was given permission in January for emergency use of its Covaxin, developed in collaboration with the ICMR. Although, Bharat Biotech can make 12.5 million doses each month, these will be a small proportion of the doses administered in the country, so far.

To effectively respond to the prevailing vaccine crunch, Indian Government already approved the ‘emergency use’ of Sputnik V vaccine, which will be imported till its domestic production commences. Further, the country’s health authorities have now decided to consider the grant of ‘emergency use’ approval of several other internationally developed vaccines, such as, Pfizer – BioNTech double-dose vaccine and Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine. At least, till then, India’s vaccine imbroglio to vaccinate all adult population in the country, irrespective of age – particularly when Covid second wave is not sparing the young adults, is expected to continue.

Conclusion:

The jaw-dropping pandemic situation, and the pathway to deal with this crisis, especially in India, is getting increasingly complicated in every passing day. As reported on April 16, 2021, Covid-19 is now fooling RT-PCR tests – the most reliable type of Covid test as on date. It is so alarming because: ‘A false negative report is bad for the patient as they might delay consulting a doctor. It’s also bad for others, as the patient might not isolate, and spread the virus around,’ as the report underscores. It has started happening because: ‘Multiple mutations in the coronavirus over 15 months are making parts of it unrecognizable to lab tests.’

Experts are trying to fathom, whether or not more people are dying in India’s Covid second wave, as compared to the equivalent time period of the first wave. This causes an added cause of great concern because, in the six months before the start of the second wave (from September 2020 to January 2021), India’s overall case fatality rate (CFR) was only around 1.1%. This means only 1.1% of cases resulted in deaths. Currently, at the very beginning of the second wave, CFR has already increased to 1.3% and remains below peak levels seen in the first wave – as of date.

Above all, many people – virtually from all social, political, religious and economic strata, are openly flouting the basic norms of Covid appropriate behavior, as daily seen on different TV news channels. Ironically, these are happening at a time, when Indian health care infrastructure is creaking against the enormous and devastating power of the second wave Covid pandemic.

‘Pharmacy of the world’ has also gone local for some critical Covid-19 drugs and vaccines, to save lives and livelihoods of the Indian population, having no other better alternative in sight, at this hour. Isn’t this a sign of ‘A Nation in Distress’ that makes a fervent appeal to all of us, at least, to behave properly – by religiously following the lifesaving Covid guidelines?

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Data Integrity Issue Haunts Again With Covid Vaccine?

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On March 22, 2021, by a media release, AstraZeneca announced that its ‘US Phase III trial of AZD1222 demonstrated statistically significant vaccine efficacy of 79% in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 and 100% efficacy at preventing severe disease and hospitalization.’

Quite unexpectedly, on March 23, 2021, the above claim on AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine, triggered a rare post-midnight statement by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) of the United states. It rekindled a lurking fear of many, yet again, on the issue of questionable data integrity within the drug industry, in general.

This News Release articulated: “Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial.”

The concern was on the possible inclusion of outdated information from that trial, ‘which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.’ It urged AstraZeneca to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as soon as possible.

Later on that very day, AstraZeneca released another statement saying: “The numbers published yesterday were based on a pre-specified interim analysis with a data cutoff of 17 February. We have reviewed the preliminary assessment of the primary analysis and the results were consistent with the interim analysis. We are now completing the validation of the statistical analysis.”

The company further emphasized, “We will immediately engage with the independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB) to share our primary analysis with the most up to date efficacy data.” And also added that AstraZeneca intends to issue the results of the primary analysis within 48 hours.

However, the impact of the NIAID’s announcement on the unfurling of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S, is yet to be ascertained. It’s also still unknown what this news could mean for the vaccine’s alleged efficacy. Be that as it may, it all happened at a time when millions of people, in many countries of the world, including India, have already taken, at least, the first dose of this vaccine.

In this article, I shall deliberate on broader aspects of this critical issue and its relevance in the present case. However, before doing so, let’s try to figure out, why data integrity still remains a major concern of many experts in this area.

Why data integrity is still a major issue:

There are many studies that raised serious concern in this area, over a period of time. For example – ‘Dozens of recent clinical trials may contain wrong or falsified data’ – was claimed by the research paper that was discussed in ‘The Guardian’ on June 05, 2017.

This study reviewed data from 5,087 clinical trials, published during the past 15 years, in two prestigious medical journals – JAMA and the New England Journal of Medicine, and six anesthesia journals. In total, 90 published trials had underlying statistical patterns that were unlikely to appear by chance (or be termed as ‘unforced error’) in a credible dataset, the paper concluded.

Even my own article of September 30, 2019 deliberated on various facets of ‘data integrity’ involving novel therapy, across the world. There, I quoted one of the top medical experts related to the above paper, saying: “It’s very scary that we may be treating patients based on false evidence.” He further added: “It may be the case that certain treatments may need to be withdrawn from use.”

The ghost of a recent example still haunts:

Not so long ago, much reported fallout from Novartis’ alleged data manipulation fiasco with its billion-dollar gene therapy Zolgensma, shook all concerned. So much so, that the Company CEO had to pledge during an investor conference that: ‘the company will be more proactive in reporting data integrity issues to the FDA.’

He also added, Novartis has responded to the FDA’s Form 483 and is making documents available as requested, while reiterating that the data manipulation uncovered at the San Diego site “does not impact the safety, efficacy or quality of Zolgensma.”

The key point to ponder, therefore, especially in AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine case – is the same ghost haunting us, yet again?

Is it happening again? 

One may, possibly, find some cue of the answer to this question while looking at what followed after ‘validation of the statistical analysis’ by AstraZeneca, as it was promised by the company. Interestingly, the following day, after apparently a thorough analysis, the data released by AstraZeneca, re-iterated effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine, which apparently, is broadly similar to the results released earlier.

The Company highlighted therein, ‘US Phase III primary analysis confirms safety and efficacy,’ with the following points:

  • 76% (earlier shown as 79%) vaccine efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19
  • 100% efficacy against severe or critical disease and hospitalization
  • 85% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in participants aged 65 years and over.

It may continue to remain unclear to many – whether or not there was some suspected issue of data integrity – till the answers, at least, to the following questions are made public:

  • Why did the data and safety monitoring board for the trial write a harsh letter to AstraZeneca on its claim, and copied the leadership of NIAID and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority?
  • As the proof of the pudding is in its eating, why there will even be a slight downward revision in the rate of efficacy of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine?

Conclusion:

I wrote in this blog, way back on August 03, 2015 that data manipulation issues are dangerously leapfrogging into clinical trial domain, even in India. As a result, many domestic drug players had to pay a heavy price – in terms of drug import bans by USFDA and other regulators. Several questions on the quality of efficacy and safety of Indian generic drugs were also raised in many developed countries. A number of best-selling books were also written on this issue.

Some may recall, just ahead Covid pandemic struck, trial data of a highly complex and very expensive gene therapy was also questioned by the US-FDA, for the same reason. However, on March 31, 2020, on completion of its review of the information, records of the inspection, the evidence collected, and the firm’s corrective actions, US-FDA stated: “Objectionable conditions were found and documented but the objectionable conditions observed during the inspection do not meet the threshold for regulatory action.”

Almost in a similar line, after the NIAID decided to make its data related concern public on AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, its head, Anthony Fauci, reportedly, characterized this issue as “an unforced error.” This is indeed a cryptic comment. The root cause of this entire saga with details is still awaited.

Interestingly, the term “unforced error’ is widely used in Tennis, and means, ‘a mistake in play that is attributed to one’s own failure rather than to the skill or effort of one’s opponent.’ From this perspective, after AstraZeneca’s statement of clarification on its Covid-19 vaccine data, the concern on its phase three trial data would possibly be put to rest. At least for now, let’s not see the ghost of data integrity for this vaccine, where there doesn’t seem to be any.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Appears On Radar New L&D Needs For Pharma’s New e-Environment

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As drug companies were desperately trying to navigate through the operational disruptions due to Covid crisis, the Learning and Development (LD) plans of most organizations, considered so important for employees, got badly impacted. This was ably captured in the article – ‘Adapting workplace learning in the time of Coronavirus’, appeared in the March 2020 issue of McKinsey Accelerate.

It highlighted, as businesses around the world postpone and cancel in-person meetings in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, “workplace learning is emerging as one of the earliest and hardest-hit business activities.” The paper further elucidated: “Based on our observations as of early March, roughly one-half of in-person programs through June 30, 2020, have been postponed or canceled in North America. Whereas “in parts of Asia and Europe, the figure is closer to 100 percent.”

Interestingly, no one is talking much about it as much as the need for quick digitalization in the pharma industry, to respond to the challenge of disruptive changes. A quick return to employee L&D initiatives in the new normal, I reckon, would encourage, particularly the hands-on staff members on e-marketing to come out with more innovative digital solutions to reap a rich harvest from remote engagement with customers, on an ongoing basis.

In this article, I shall explore this area from the perspective of increasing employee productivity in the digital work environment of the new normal.

Why is L&D more relevant to pharma employees, now?

To effectively respond to post-Covid changes in customer behavior – aspirations – expectations – other market dynamics, alongside a different genre of competition, new learnings in the digital space, is critical for all employees. Which is why, it is so important for pharma players to quickly refocus on this process, just as digitalization. Without requisite digital skill development, corporate performance may look lackluster, eventually.

It is important for all to recognize that just digital transformation of business isn’t a panacea. For example, e-marketing is certainly a powerful contemporary marketing tool that a company must go for. But, it is no less important to know how making effective use of this versatile technology would appeal to individual customer emotions, with personalized content. Medical Representatives of pre-Covid days may not be generally well-versed in this area, at least, as much as they ought to – now.

Some pace-setting Indian examples in this area:

According to an article, published in leading Indian business daily on June 17, 2020, the Indian pharma major – Lupin, reportedly, used the lockdown as an opportunity to train its sales teams on medical acumen, soft skills, disease knowledge, effective communication etc. They conducted over 200 sessions using Microsoft Teams. In some sessions, the attendance count reached 8000 people.

As the article points out, using digital tools and platforms, the company reps were enabled to record a video of brand detailing and share it with the doctors who can view it as per his or her convenience. It also says, ‘Lupin team reached out to more than 1 lakh doctors through live webinars, ECMEs, e-mailers, webinars to update them with the latest medical and therapeutic advancements.’

The core idea of this initiative is undoubtedly worth imbibing, although, it is still not clear to many, how effective were those digital marketing strategies in the form as it has been described.

The new e-environment needs new sets of L&D models:

From the above perspective, the take home message, I reckon, is - in pharma’s new normal, digitalization isn’t just about a modern and contemporary technology. It is much more profound – signifies the criticality of credible data-based, novel decision-making process, offering high yield solutions to complex sets of disruptive problems in business.  Consequently, now appears on the radar a new set of L&D needs for the new e-environment of the pharma industry.

Ramifications of e-environment changes in pharma business: 

Many studies have pointed out to a number of changes in pharma industry’s e-environment, in the new normal. Just to give a sense of such mega changes, let me quote another recent paper in this regard. The paper on ‘Telehealth’, published by McKinsey & Company on May 29, 2020, writes: “Our claims-based analysis suggests that approximately 20 percent of all emergency room visits could potentially be avoided via virtual urgent care offerings, 24 percent of health care office visits and outpatient volume could be delivered virtually, and an additional 9 percent “near-virtually.”

The paper further adds, ‘up to 35 percent of regular home health attendant services could be virtualized, and 2 percent of all outpatient volume could be shifted to the home setting, with tech-enabled medication administration.’ These changes will overall add up to US$250 billion in healthcare spend in 2020 that could be shifted to virtual or near-virtual care, or 20 percent of all office, outpatient, and home health-spend across all types of health care, the paper highlights.

Although, this article was written against the US pharma industry backdrop, considering the current Indian government’s strong push on telemedicine – as a facilitator, one may envisage similar changes in India too, over a period of time.  

Covid-19 could still be a long-haul battle, pharma should be prepared for it:

Echoing this sentiment, ‘The Washington Post’ flashed a headline in its February 10, 2021: ‘Variants mean the coronavirus is here to stay — but perhaps as a lesser threat.’ Elaborating the point, it said: ‘In early December, the end of the pandemic glimmered on the horizon. Blockbuster vaccine results suggested a clear path forward.’ However, thereafter, ‘the euphoria dissipated,’ as mutation-ridden variants of Covid-19 with concerning new characteristics were detected. ‘The path forward is still hopeful, but longer and more labyrinthine’, the news report added.

It is now becoming increasingly clear that Covid-19 variants can slip past some of the immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections.  Vaccines may have to be updated, perhaps regularly. And the world will have to prepare for the possibility, even the likelihood, that over the long term, the novel coronavirus will become a persistent disease threat.

The World Health Organization (W.H.O) also confirmed this point on January 21, 2021. It said, ‘Yes, this is a very important point that vaccine developers keep in mind. Covid-19 vaccines could possibly be like vaccines against the influenza virus, where ‘scientists have to change the structure of the vaccine every year, based on the circulating strains and WHO coordinates this global network that actually identifies which strain should be used every year.’

Conclusion:

The bottom line, therefore, is, no one can vouch with any degree of certainty, as on date, when exactly Covid crisis will get over completely, despite Covid-19 vaccines being available now. At the same time, even after several disruptive covid related changes in business, the need for rapid adjustment to further changes of similar in nature and scale, may continue to exist.

To properly understand these changes, their implications on business, impact on customers, re-engineering needs of marketing strategies and then thrive, are of fundamental importance. Thus, along with on-the-job learning, contemporary e-learning of employees – is a critical success ingredient for both individual and organizational development, especially in the dynamic digital environment.

It is worth noting that digital initiatives are not confined to modern tech-based apps and platforms. The basic prerequisite of any digital marketing strategy is to understand the versatility of its power and core values. This is essential to effectively influence customer behavior and their expectations, for creating a sustainable ‘doctor-patient- brand or corporate relationship. That’s why L&D remains a critical tool for capacity building, even for e-marketing. It will help ensure, employees are able to deliver expected deliverables by successfully meeting newer challenges in the digital space, in sync with the organizational expectations and goals, in the new normal.

Today, when digitalization has become a buzz word for pharma’ success – occupying virtually everybody’s entire mind space, also appears on the radar today new L&D needs for the new e-environment to make digitalization work, paying rich dividend to the business.

By: Tapan J. Ray      

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

2020: Learnings From A Yearlong Catastrophic Disruption And Crystal-Gazing 2021

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 Wishing All My Readers A Very Happy, Healthy, Peaceful and Prosperous 2021

Just a few days left for the year 2020 to merge with history. It will be remembered by all – as a year of all-round catastrophic global disruption. With unprecedented impact on human lives, livelihoods, economy, and ways of doing things – sparing virtually nothing. The sole cause of which is an unprecedented single event – Covid-19 pandemic. As of December 27, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,118,392 new Coronavirus cases with 147,659 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further infection of Covid-19 infection continues.

In this article, I shall focus on some critical lessons learnt from the 2020 health crisis, while crystal-gazing 2021. I’ll do this purely from the health care perspective, in general, and the pharmaceutical industry, in particular. Keeping this in view, some of the lessons learnt during the pandemic are as follows:

A. Never allow a sense of hubris setting in:

This is easier said than done. Nonetheless, before the Covid pandemic played havocs with all, many top pharma leaders were, apparently, in a hubris. It was often laced with excessive confidence, if not arrogance. The predominant belief was nothing can go so wrong sans unfavorable policy decisions by the governments. This was against a much-known management dictum for all – always anticipate future probabilities that may impact the business and keep prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. On a hindsight, this was, obviously jettisoned – lock, stock and barrel. No one was prepared for any biological threats, such as, Covid pandemic, till the deadly virus caught the humanity off-guard around December 2019, as we see below:

The pandemic was expected, but struck unexpectedly:

A pandemic wasn’t totally unexpected either. Therefore, they question that surfaces - Experts warned of a pandemic decades ago. Why weren’t we ready? Just in 2015, even Bill Gates, during a Ted talk titled, “The next outbreak? We’re not ready,” also predicted - based on available facts that an epidemic would kill millions in the future.

He further added: “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s more likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war – not missiles, but microbes.” Gates further emphasized: “We have invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents, but we’ve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We’re not ready for the next epidemic.”

B. Research on anti-infective drugs shouldn’t be pushed to the back burner: 

These warnings were, apparently, ignored by the pharma industry. For example, as reported in the first quarter of 2020, many research-based pharma companies shifted ‘resources away from emerging infectious diseases into more lucrative areas like cancer treatment. Their business decisions risk leaving gaping holes in the fight against epidemics, such as the one caused by the novel Coronavirus.’

Let’s now take a pause for pharma players to ponder. Are they ready, at least now, with a robust plan – based on almost a year’s experience of an unprecedented agony along with its customers, specifically to counter any future biological threat? Be that as it may, there have also been some good outcomes out of the Covid crisis, both for the pharma industry and also for the health care customers.

C. The pandemic hastened pharma’s digital transformation process:

As is known, compared to many other industries, pharma industry was a late learner in the digitalization process of organizations. The new realities of disruptions caused by the pandemic had significantly expedited this process to keep the business going. There were no other effective options available, either, but to move beyond business stabilization and redefine how they do business. The IQVIA article, ‘Digital transformation in a post-Covid-19 world,’ published in the Pharmaceutical Technology, on August 31, 2020, also reiterated this point.

Elaborating the point further, the article pointed out: ‘As a result, acceleration of three key capabilities is occurring to create sustainable competitive advantage,’ as follows:

  • Digital capabilities with modern technology are enabling companies doing the right things during the pandemic and accelerating the process.
  • Providing access to granular data to support the extraction of precise insights into the needs of patients and physicians.
  • Ensuring capabilities for sustaining relationships. While face-to-face interaction has been dramatically reduced, relationships with HCPs and patients are taking new shapes and are of more importance than ever before.

D. Telemedicine came under mainstream care, supported by Government:

Finding no other viable alternatives during the Covid lockdown period and the need to stringently follow prescribed health measures, many patients were pushed to search for a robust digital solution for health care needs. Just as many of them were already using online platforms to meet other regular needs. In that sense, Covid propelled health care into a virtual world, bringing telehealth or telemedicine toward mainstream care, supported by the Government with a policy, for the first time, ever.

E. Quality of pharma response to pandemic enhanced industry image:

As I had discussed before in this blog, Consumer centric communications, driven by the  ‘hope and confidence as companies rushed to come up with COVID-19 vaccines and treatments’ of all, helped to significantly enhance the industry’s image during the year. In my view, pharma shouldn’t let go this opportunity to reposition itself, to reap a rich harvest in the years ahead.

Crystal-gazing 2021: 

A. A lurking fear will keep haunting:

Moving away from the outgoing year – 2020, if one crystal gazes the incoming – yet another brand-new year – 2021, a lurking fear still haunts most peoples’ minds. Will the all-round disruptions of 2020 be the new normal in 2021 – with no further escalation of the current situation?

B. Vaccine rollout will reduce rapid spread, but not eliminate Covid-19:

Gradual rolling out of vaccines may reduce the rapid spread of pandemic, provided Covid-19 doesn’t throw more surprises, such as, complicated mutation, blunting this initiative. However, currently available evidence indicates, the new variant could be more transmissible, yet vaccines may work very well against it.

 C. Masking, physical distancing, hand washing, etc., will continue:

Besides, many yet unknown side effects, the duration of immunity following coronavirus vaccination is still largely unknown due to the simple lack of time we’ve had to study such immune responses. Moreover, the trials do not tell us if the vaccines can block the transmission of the disease from those who are asymptomatic and have been vaccinated. Thus, masking, physical distancing, hand washing, testing, treating and contact tracing, reportedly, will continue to be important in the global campaign against COVID-19, even after vaccine rollout.

D. NDDS for Covid drugs and vaccines may come: 

New formulations, new Covid drug delivery systems, newer methods to bring Covid vaccines, like nasal sprays, in a powder form for easy transportation and to reach more people around the world, are expected to commence in 2021.

E. Waiting for going back to pre-Covid game plan is a losing strategy:

Vaccines are unlikely to take us back to pre-Covid time, any time soon. Even McKinsey & Companypredicted the same in its article: ‘‘How COVID-19 is redefining the next-normal operating model,’ published on December 10, 2020. It emphasized: “With everything disrupted, going back to the same old thing is a losing strategy. The strongest companies are reinventing themselves by embracing pandemic- driven change.”

Many pharma majors are also echoing the same, even as Covid-19 vaccines have started rolling out for public in different parts of the world. After weighing-in the pros and cons of waiting, many of them have articulated: ‘We will not return to the old ways of working.’ They believe, it’s too early to put a specific timeline on turning that page now. Hence, the year 2021, working of the pharma companies is unlikely to be significantly different from the year 2020.

F. Need to capture and respond fast to changing customer behaviors:

Covid-19 pandemic is fast changing many human attitudes and behaviors, forcing organizations to respond. ‘However, the need to respond won’t end when the virus’s immediate threat eventually recedes,’ reaffirmed the Accenture article ‘COVID-19: 5 new human truths that experiences need to address.’ The massive behavior changes of key pharma stakeholders, at a never before scale and speed, will continue to prompt many leading drug companies to respond to them with well thought through digital tools, to gain competitive advantages.

G. Virtual meetings with reps, doctors and others will continue:

As witnessed in 2020, often for the first time – virtual meeting of sales reps, key opinion leaders and others will continue in 2021, even after ‘live’ ones return, but with more innovative structure and content. Pharma marketing’s long awaited and comprehensive digital foray will continue gaining a strong foothold, entering into new areas, without glancing back over the shoulder, in 2021.

H. More new drug launches will move entirely digital:

It began in 2020. For example, dozens of new drug launches moved entirely to digital, for the first time in 2020. As a pharma leader remarked, with the traditional launch framework gone during the pandemic, “we had to throw out the playbook and really embed into people’s heads that playbook is no longer meaningful. It no longer works, and we have to think outside the box.” She further added: “There’s truly no bigger place for a marketer right now. This is the new world.” None can deny this fact as we enter into the new year.

I. Success requirements of pharma professionals will be different:

With significant transformation of pharma’s operational strategies, success requirements of pharma professionals will also be significantly different in the new normal. Quick capturing and fast adaptation to the changing customer behavior for multi-channel engagement digital platforms, will be fundamentally important – not just for business excellence, but for its long-term sustainability, as well. This is a totally new and highly cerebral strategic ballgame, where obsolescence of cutting-edge technology is much faster than anything in the tradition driven old normal.

J. More pharma companies will explore inorganic growth opportunities:

More pharma companies will look for acquisitions to bridge the strategic gaps, as AstraZeneca did in 2020.

Conclusion:

In 2021, Covid Mayhem may possibly be over with a gradual rollout of vaccines. But, the impact of utter disruptions that the pandemic has caused in multiple areas of businesses in 2020, especially within the pharma industry, would continue, as we step into 2021. As the drug industry overwhelmed by Covid-19, reset themselves with the digital transformation in the new normal -for growth beyond Coronavirus, one may also view this much awaited metamorphosis, as a blessing in disguise, as it were.

Overall, as the W.H.O observed very rightly on December 27, 2020: “We throw money at an outbreak, and when it’s over, we forget about it and do nothing to prevent the next one. This is dangerously short-sighted, and frankly difficult to understand.” He further added: “History tells us that this will not be the last pandemic, and epidemics are a fact of life.” I hope, all concerned will realize this point in 2021. Alternatively, we may need to keep ourselves prepared to move, in a similar way, from the current new normal to yet unknown next normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 


A Rare Strategic Acrobatic Feat in Covid Time

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‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills.’ Quite a while ago, all-time global management guru – Peter Drucker used this essential acrobatic feat as an example, for the business strategists. This illustration signifies the criticality of harmonizing decisions affecting both the short and the long-term goals of an organization, for a sustainable business excellence.

In most recent times, the pharma major AstraZeneca that has virtually become one of the household names, for developing a Covid-19 vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford, has performed the above acrobatic feat – with precision. During the prevailing unprecedented health crisis, the Company has unequivocally proven that it remains on course – in achieving its dual objectives, as Drucker had prescribed in his management classic – ‘The Practice of Management.’

It happened in tandem – without getting overwhelmed by the disruptive forced of Covid pandemic, unlike most others. Immediately, the Company focused on an urgent objective of saving the humanity – by developing, manufacturing and delivering a Covid vaccine to the world, in a record time. This was possibly a relatively short-term goal. And closely followed the other – a critical strategic decision for the organization’s long-term sustainable business excellence.

I have discussed before, the Company’s first initiative – developing a Covid vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford. Hence, in this article, I shall focus on two other related areas:

  • Deadly impact of rare diseases in some Covid infected young patients.
  • Why not some large Indian companies also explore similar strategies as demonstrated by AstraZeneca – and the reasons behind the same?

Before going into those areas up front, let me start with a brief description of AstraZeneca’s intent to expand its footprint in the of area of rare diseases, besides immunology area to help treat rare types of cancer.

The acquisition:

On December 12, 2020 AstraZeneca announced that to accelerate its strategic and financial development, the company will acquire Alexion valuing $39 billion. Subject to all statutory approvals, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2021. Interestingly, Alexion’s top brand – Soliris, is the world’s one of the most expensive drugs in the world. It is prescribed to treat a rare – life-threatening blood disease paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). Incidentally, rare diseases have also some significant relevance for Covid infected patients. Let me now recapitulate, some key aspects of rare diseases.

Some key aspects of rare diseases: 

Rare Diseases (RD) – also referred to as Orphan Disease (OD), are diseases affecting a small percentage of the population, and include genetic diseases, rare cancers, infectious tropical diseases and degenerative diseases. There is no universally accepted definition of a rare disease, yet. Different countries define these differently. However, the common considerations in the definitions are, primarily, disease prevalence and to a varying extent – severity and existence of alternative therapeutic options.

Impact of some rare diseases in Covid infected patients: 

Since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, people with underlying diseases, such as, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney disorders, are considered to fall in the high-risk group. They are more likely to have severe disease and complications and need to be extra cautious of the infection. Importantly, it has been recently reported that some rare diseases also increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic at a younger age.

For example, as reported on December 07, 2020, recent studies indicate, rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic for younger patients. The researchers also found that women with rare autoimmune rheumatological diseases (RAIRD) had a greater increase in all-cause mortality rates during the pandemic when compared to men with RAIRD. However, there seems to be an India specific issue also in this situation, as well.

India specific issue for Covid infected patients with some rare diseases:

Some India specific issues on RD, could have a significant adverse impact on Covid infected patients in the country. One such critical issues is the ‘Baseline Knowledge of Rare Diseases in India.’ This fact was well captured in an important survey that was published with the same name, as an original article, in the ‘International Journal of Rare Diseases & Disorders,’ on November 06, 2019.

The study noted, among others:

  • Although, rare diseases have recently received worldwide attention, the developing countries are seriously behind in regard to awareness, drug development, diagnosis, and social services, in this area. India, which has one-third of the world’s rare disease population, has no accurate assessment of the problem.
  • The drugs for ‘Rare Diseases (RD), also called Orphan Drugs (OD)’, often cost exorbitant with difficulties in diagnosis and treatments.
  • Indian policymakers want to find out the number of RD and the extent of the population suffering from them and help provide treatment for them, which is a challenging task with 1.45% GDP health care budget for 1.3 billion people.
  • The health care professionals appear to have some awareness as compared with non-healthcare professionals, but even among health care professionals, only one third had a rudimentary understanding of RD and OD, whereas three-fourths have virtually no knowledge of RD.
  • Forty-three percent of health professionals had not seen rare disease patients, and a large percent of practicing physicians had not seen even one rare disease patient in their entire professional practice.

Thus, it is clear from this survey that the most important issues are awareness and diagnosis, as many rare diseases are not diagnosed or possibly misdiagnosed. Besides, the survey also observed, since 1983, many global companies started developing orphan drugs after the Orphan Drug Act implementation. There is none at this time in India, although in 2017, the Drugs & Cosmetic Act. 1945 has been amended to include “rare diseases and orphan drugs”.

The National Policy on Rare Diseases flagged some of these facts:

The ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020,’ for India, released by the Union Ministry of Health on February 07, 2020, acknowledged many of these important facts. It also said, ‘Considering the limited data available on rare diseases, and in the light of competing health priorities, the focus of the draft policy is on prevention of rare diseases as a priority as identified by experts.’

Interestingly, the first of such policy was prepared by India in 2017 and a committee was appointed to review it in 2028. However, recently published the National Policy on Rare diseases, has also noted one more important point. It noted: ‘Paradoxically, though rare diseases are of low prevalence and individually rare, collectively they affect a considerable proportion of the population in any country, which according to generally accepted international research is – between 6% and 8%.’ Currently, India, reportedly, doesn’t have any registry of rare disease, which has now been entrusted to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in the National policy.

Common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis:

The above policy has also noted, rare diseases are characterized by a wide diversity of signs and symptoms that not only, reportedly, vary from disease to disease, but also from patient-to-patient suffering from the same disease. Importantly, relatively common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis.

During Covid treatment, similar circumstances could lead to a serious life-threatening situation. The 2020 RD Policy also reiterates: “Early diagnosis of rare diseases is a challenge owing to multiple factors that include lack of awareness among primary care physicians, lack of adequate screening and diagnostic facilities etc.” That said, yet another key question arises – will developing and marketing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

Will developing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

It is worth noting that the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020, aims more at lowering the incidence and prevalence of rare diseases based on an integrated and comprehensive prevention strategy, rather than ensuring patient access to affordable treatments. Nonetheless, it also says, within the constraints on resources and competing health care priorities, India will try to enable access to affordable health care to patients of rare diseases which are amenable to one-time treatment. In general, the policy suggests, ‘voluntary crowdfunding for treatment’ of rare diseases.

With this being the prevailing situation in India, even during Covid pandemic, an interesting article – ‘How Orphan Drugs Became a Highly Profitable Industry,’ published in The Scientist, noted some important facts in this area. It highlighted: ‘Government incentives, advances in technology, and an army of patient advocates have spun a successful market—but abuses of the system and exorbitant prices could cause a backlash.’

It also articulated, despite higher costs and less-certain returns, investments in drug development on the rare diseases side appear to ‘be bucking the trend.’ The result of the global focus on RD nowadays is: ‘Firms with marketing authorization for orphan products, are now more profitable than those without.’

This also partly explains the financial rationale behind AstraZeneca’s recent acquisition of Alexion Pharmaceuticals, valuing $39 billion.

Conclusion: 

As of December 20, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,031,659 of new Coronavirus cases with 145,513 deaths. The country has already crossed 10 million in Covid cases as the vaccine approval remains pending. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection continues to loom large in many states. Meanwhile, many studies indicate that comorbidity should now include rare diseases, as well, especially to prevent deaths in younger patients. From this perspective effective diagnosis and treatment of RD are also coming under spotlights. Curiously, the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020 focuses more on awareness and prevention of RD rather than access to affordable treatment, particularly in Covid infected patients to save precious younger lives. As I wrote previously and still believe, the ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases’ becomes more meaningful with ‘Orphan Drugs Act.’

Vaccines to prevent Covid infections are also expected to get emergency approval in India, shortly. At lease, some of these being available at affordable prices, including AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, according to reports. As recent reports indicate the same company, is also entering into RD therapy areas, through a key acquisition, yet another hope looms large. A hope for availability of relevant RD drugs at an affordable price for Covid infected patients, despite other apprehension, as I wrote before.

That apart, purely from the business management perspective, as well, this rare strategic acrobatic feat of AstraZeneca - ‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills,’ during the Covid crisis, I reckon, is exemplary for the practicing managers.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Pharma Not To Let Go This Never Before Opportunity To Reposition Itself

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‘While the COVID-19 pandemic has placed unparalleled demands on modern healthcare systems, the industry’s response has vividly demonstrated its resilience and ability to bring innovations to market quickly.’ This appeared in the McKinsey & Company article – ‘Healthcare innovation: Building on the gains made through the crisis,’ published on November 12, 2020.

Just a couple of days before that, on November 09, 2020, an interesting article appeared in The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the resilience of the pharma industry. It also discussed on how ‘an often-disparaged industry is finding a rare opportunity to promote its value,’ to turn around public perception of its image and reputation during the pandemic. The article elaborated this point by quoting: “It was a fight between pharma, tobacco companies and the government for who would be at the bottom in terms of reputation,” – now “Covid is giving them an opportunity to step out of that world and into the world of ‘we can help,’ and it’s giving pharma a comeback.”

As is known to many, pharma industry was long vilified for its many self-serving objectives. But the Coronavirus pandemic helped immensely to highlight its role in developing medications and vaccines to save the humanity. It happened never before – ever, with this intensity and scale. Thus, the shift is inspiring many pharma giants to reposition their marketing and communications, the WSJ report added. This article will deliberate on how pharma marketers can leverage this once in a lifetime opportunity, with actionable insights on Covid pandemic-induced – changing needs of healthcare customers.

Covid-19 to change the way companies do business - A recent survey:

In this McKinsey & Company survey, published on June 17, 2020, more than 200 organizations across industries had participated in this study. Notably, over 90 percent of the participating executives expect the fallout from COVID-19 to fundamentally change the way companies do business over the next five years, with a lasting impact on their customers’ needs. In the pharma industry too, these trends are clearly visible and undergoing a metamorphosis. I quote below a few important points from this study, as illustrations:

  • Nearly 73 percent respondents from the pharma and medical supplies industries agree that the changes brought about by Covid-19 will be a big opportunity for growth.
  • Only 21 percent of the same executives feel that they are prepared with resources, expertise and commitment to address the changes they see coming, for harvesting the new growth opportunities.
  • Curiously, only 25 percent of respondents reported that capturing new growth was a top priority today, compared to roughly 60 percent before the crisis hit.
  • Notably, across the industries only pharma and medical product industries have increased their focus on innovation during Covid crisis. Although, many are still playing safe, which may be a shortsighted decision, the research paper observed. 

Understand the shifts and the opportunities with actionable insights:

That the current Covid crisis has significantly exacerbated and accelerated many disruptive forces, is vindicated by another survey: ‘Global B2B decision-maker response to COVID-19 crisis.’ This was published by the McKinsey & Company on October 20, 2020. It also reiterated, ‘B2B decision-maker preferences and behaviors have shifted dramatically since the onset of COVID. The GTM revolution is here and B2B sales is forever changed.’ I shall quote two of these areas, as follows:

A. Changes to pharma sales models: Companies with significant field forces can no longer rely on in-person coverage to outcompete. This is because:

  • The tide has turned: digital self-service and remote rep interactions are likely to be the dominant elements of the B2B go-to-market model, going forward.
  • Don’t count on returning to a pre-COVID-19 level of in-person sales coverage, as only 20–30% of B2B buyers want to ever interact with reps in person even in their ideal/post-COVID-19 model.
  • Around 90% of B2B decision makers expect the remote and the digital model to stick around for the long run, and 3 in 4 believe the new model is as effective or more so than before COVID-19 (for both existing customers and prospects).
  • 97% of B2B buyers claim they will make a purchase in an end-to-end, digital self-serve model, with the vast majority very comfortable spending more online.
  • Video-conference connections are critical and are preferred over audio/phone by almost 4 out of 5 B2B buyers.

B. Influx of competitors from different industries: Medical-device firms historically had a narrow competitive set and were insulated by a complex and highly technical regulatory approval process. They are now facing competition from previously unexpected new entrants, including Wearable Health Devices (WHDs) makers, such as Google, Apple among several others. As I also wrote about a year ago, on December 02, 2020, this is mostly because, WHDs help improve disease outcomes, creating a unique disease treatment experience.

Which is why, in the new normal, creating a holistic and innovative ‘Customer Experience’ is as important and challenging as creating ‘Innovative Drugs’.

Reposition pharma to create a holistic ‘Customer Experience’ in the new normal:

At the very beginning of this year, on January 13, 2020, I asked: What Pays More: Creating Innovative ‘Customer Experience’ Or ‘Innovative Drugs’? Although both are crucial for pharma, in the current scenario, the former, I reckon, is no less important or less demanding than the latter for pharma marketers. The question, therefore, arises, what new insights it will entail to meet the unmet changing needs of healthcare customers? The answers may point towards several areas, which are worth pondering over.

Leaving this exhaustive search for pharma professionals to gain the necessary insights for action, let me give an example of only one such area to drive home the point. An interesting article deliberating this area was published by Reuters Events on November 17, 2020. Especially in the new normal, finding solutions to unmet customer needs would prompt harnessing the combined and synergistic power of medical and marketing skills, creating a culture to match, as the article highlighted.

Elaborating this need, the author stressed, the traditional model of medical and marketing functions working in silos is often a barrier to a holistic customer approach. This is because it stifles the opportunity for co-creation of well-synchronized solutions on a number of medico marketing issues during patients’ disease treatment journey mapping. These customer-centric medico-marketing issues, I reckon, are coming more often now with the increasing number of more informed patients, especially about their personal health care and treatment needs.

Traditionally, in the pharma industry ‘working in silo culture’ is quite prevalent – medical and marketing functions are no different. Encouragingly, during this pandemic, several companies have formed cross-functional teams of medical and marketing professionals. They also create brand plans, develop content and communication strategies in the new digital platforms, as preferred by the customers. Let me hasten to add, most companies, especially in India will need to catch up with this new way of working, creating a new culture, soon.

Two interesting examples of medico-marketing during Covid Crisis:

There will be several examples in this area. However, to illustrate the point of creating a holistic ‘Customer Experience’ in the new normal, let me cite two examples of medic-marketing in this area, during Covid crisis. Coincidentally, both the examples are from the global pharma major Pfizer – the Company (along with BioNTech) that offered the first Covid-19 vaccine to the western world for public use under ‘Emergency Approval’ by the British drug regulator.

The first example is a website for Pfizer prescription medicine assistance program – called Pfizer RX Pathways. It mentions at the very top, ‘Pfizer recognizes the public concern in relation to COVID-19, which continues to evolve. Click here to learn how we are responding.’ When clicked, it takes the viewers to another website, where Pfizer says, ‘we are committed to helping keep people safe and informed.’

The second one tackles the uncertainty and anxiety that many people feel during the Covid pandemic – reassuring the viewers that “science will win.”  It starts with: “At a time when things are uncertain, we turn to the most certain thing there is—science. Science can overcome diseases, create cures and yes, beat pandemics. It has before; it will again.”

There are many other examples, including a social media series on Covid-19 of the Company, which help enhancing holistic ‘customer experience’ in the contemporary situation, for which the concerned companies’ brands are also rewarded by the customers.

Conclusion:

As of December 13, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,857,380 of new Coronavirus cases with 143,055 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection still looms large in many states. The good news is, at least, one Covid-19 vaccine is expected to be available in India within a month’s time. Meanwhile, as many people believe, when a company or an industry does most things right, as experienced by its customers, its reputation goes up, and vice versa. For example, the Gallup Poll, published around a year ago – on September 03, 2019 said: ‘The pharmaceutical industry is now the most poorly regarded industry in Americans’ eyes, ranking last on a list of 25 industries.’ Interestingly, similar Gallup Poll, published a year later – on September 08, 2020 noted, ‘the pharmaceutical industry’s image has improved modestly since last year, and it has yielded the “worst rated” distinction back to the federal government.’

So, something good must have happened during this one-year period, the most influential of which being Covid Pandemic. We have seen above, how some pharma players have repositioned themselves to provide a holistic ‘Customer Experience’, through innovative multichannel communication – being on the same page with customers. Medico-marketing approach played a stellar role in these efforts. As more healthcare customers get enlightened on their health and treatment needs by charting through the cyberspace, they are expected to lap-up such multichannel communication, alongside other equally cerebral pharma initiatives.

Undoubtedly, Covid pandemic is a triggering factor for this change, both among the healthcare customers and the pharma players. This trend is not going to disappear soon, as various top research studies have highlighted. Well-deserved pharma image and reputation boost has started gaining speed, following what some companies are demonstrating to customers during the Covid crisis. Pharma marketers, I believe, will not let go this never before opportunity to reposition their respective companies. It will help them achieve well-cherished brand excellence, supported by a robust Company image and reputation. As the good old saying has proved again to the pharma industry – even during the Covid pandemic, ‘as you sow, so shall you reap.’

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

India Not To Vaccinate All For Covid Control: Upsides And Unknowns

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With 9.46 million cases and 137,621 deaths, India has currently the world’s second-highest number of coronavirus infections, behind only the United States, reported Reuters on December 01, 2020.

Fathoming seriousness of rapidly unfolding Covid induced all round disruptions across the nation, on October 17, 2020, the Indian Prime Minister issued a clarion call. He called for full preparedness of the country to ensure speedy access to Covid vaccines for every citizen.

However, the above view was subsequently changed. On December 02, 2020, quoting Union Health Ministry of India, it was reported, ‘the Government has never spoken about vaccinating the entire country.’ The Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said, “the Indian government is of the opinion that vaccination against the deadly pandemic may be needed only to the extent of ‘breaking the chain.’ If we’re able to vaccinate a critical mass of people and break virus transmission, then we may not have to vaccinate the entire population.”

Why the PM said ‘Covid vaccines for every citizen’ at that time?

In my view, what the PM said made perfect sense at that time. This is also vindicated by a fact-based interesting discussion in The Wire on July 16, 2020, carrying a title – ‘How Effective Does a Vaccine Need to Be to Stop the Pandemic? It quoted an in-depth study concluding, “a vaccine with an efficacy as low as 60% could still stop the pandemic and allow society to return to normal. However, most, if not all of the population would have to be vaccinated.”

This research article, titled ‘Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention,’ was published in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine (AJPM) on July 15, 2020. The study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).

The PM’s observation will make even better sense, while taking into account the draft ‘Regulatory Guidelines for Development of Vaccines with Special Consideration for Covid-19 vaccine in India. This guidance document for vaccine developers was issued by the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), and was reported by the media on September 23, 2020. It also says, among other specifics, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate should show at least 50 per cent efficacy during phase III of clinical trials for it to be widely deployed.”

Why health ministry’s current plan of not vaccinating all, also makes sense:

Indian Health Ministry’s latest assessment that vaccination against the deadly pandemic may be needed only to the extent of ‘breaking the chain,’ also makes sense in the rapidly emerging contemporary scenario.

It makes sense, considering, even the World Health Organization (WHO) experts have, reportedlypointed to a 65%-70% vaccine coverage rate as sufficient to reach population immunity, based on scientific reasons. This raises the subsequent question of who in India will get priority for vaccination.

The priority group for Covid vaccination in India:

As reported on November 26, 2020, according to the Principal Scientific Advisor of India, about 300 million people will be part of the first ‘wave’ to receive Covid vaccines in India. This number includes, health care workers, totaling 30 million, police personnel and those above 50 and those younger with underlying illnesses that make them vulnerable. However, everything in this area doesn’t seem to be as clear or straight forward as is widely expected. India’s Covid vaccination plan still seems to be a work in progress.

India’s Covid vaccine plan is still a work in progress:

This is evident from many reports, such as one of December 01, 2020. This report says, experts still believe that the government should spell out whether the vaccination should be confined to only uninfected individuals or encompass everyone. These reports may vindicate the murmur in the corridors of power that many details of Covid vaccination in India are yet to crystallize.

Let me quote the Indian Prime Minister in this regard, as he is not only the head of the current Government, but is also the national voice on all contemporary issues in the external world.

Interestingly, on November 24, the Prime Minister himself acknowledged: ‘Will go by scientific advice on Covid vaccine, don’t have many answers yet.’ He made it clear that he did not yet have answers to:

  • Vaccine dosage
  • Pricing or sourcing

Although, his Government has been in touch with local and global vaccine developers, nations and multilateral institutions to ensure vaccine procurement, the PM added.

Curiously, unlike what the Principal Scientific Advisor of India, reportedly articulated on November 26, 2020, just a couple of days before that, on November 24, 2020, the PM has put it quite differently.He then said, priority groups for vaccine administration would be fixed based on state inputs and added that additional cold storage must be created by states. These confirm, India’s final plan on Covid vaccination is still a work in progress.

The Covid vaccination plan is still evolving in India:

Interestingly, on December 04, 2020, in an all-party meeting chaired by the Prime Minister, it was further announced - the first set to receive the Covid -19 vaccine will be about one Crore frontline health workers and the next will be two Crore armed forces, police, and municipal personnel. Besides, around 27 Crore senior citizens, too, would be receiving the vaccine. Thus, the Government’s vaccination plan seems to be still evolving. Meanwhile, something sensational happened in the global race for having a Covid vaccine for a country’s population.

Curiously, much before the commencement of Covid vaccine prioritization discussion in India, on September 14, 2020, it was reported that China is also not going for its entire population. They are prioritizing frontline workers and high-risk populations in its fight against the new Coronavirus.

The first emergency-use authorization for a Covid-19 vaccine happened:

On December 02, 2020, both the local and global media, such as The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported: ‘The U.K. became the first Western nation to grant emergency-use authorization for a Covid-19 vaccine, clearing a shot developed by Pfizer Inc. of the U.S. and BioNTech SE of Germany to be distributed in limited numbers within days.’

In the war against Covid pandemic, it also marks a key milestone in efforts to translate a promising new vaccine technology into a widely available shot, the report highlighted. It was developed, tested and authorized and is now poised to be distributed amid a pandemic that has sickened tens of millions of people and killed more than 1.4 million around the world, the news article added.

Interestingly, the U.K could make it happen, even before the United States, where this vaccine is now being reviewed by the USFDA, where a similar authorization could come later this month and a rollout before the end of the year. It’s noteworthy that the USFDA Commissioner has defended the pace of review of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine on the grounds that a thorough assessment is needed to reassure a skeptical public.

NIAID director of the US also believes so, and has claimed, “We have the gold standard of a regulatory approach with the FDA.” This brings us to the question – will Pfizer’s Covid vaccine be available in India soon?

Will Pfizer’s Covid vaccine be available in India soon?

Just a day after U.K’s emergency approval of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine to be rolled out to the public early next week, Pfizer, reportedly, said, the Company is in discussions with many governments around the world, and “… will supply this vaccine only through government contracts based on agreements with respective government authorities and following regulatory authorization or approval.”

However, as reported on December 06, 2020, Pfizer has now sought approval from the DCGI for emergency use authorization of its Coronavirus vaccine. In its application dated December 4, Pfizer India has sought approval to “import the vaccine for sale and distribution in the country, besides waiver of clinical trials on Indian population in accordance with the special provisions under the New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019.”

It’s worth noting, conducting Phase III clinical trials on Indian volunteers has, so far, been a pre-requisite for the DCGI to give authorization to a particular investigational Covid vaccine. For example, AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine is, reportedly being tested in a phase-3 trial on over 1,600 subjects in India by Serum Institute. So is the Sputnik V, developed by Russia, and touted as the world’s “first registered Covid-19 vaccine” after it received Russian regulatory approval in early August 2020.

Further, the head of the Indian National Task Force on COVID-19, had also said the arrival of the Pfizer vaccine in India might take some months. This is, reportedly for two reasons. One, the vaccine has stringent temperature requirements (-75 degree Celsius), which make it unviable for the current cold-chain logistics in India. And the second, could possibly be, its Indian clinical trial requirements, as has been the practice of even Russia approved Sputnik V vaccine.

Thus, it appears, India is now looking at the vaccines being developed by Oxford-AstraZeneca or Bharat Biotech against the pandemic, as these are expected to complete clinical trials and seek a regulatory approval at an early date.

Upsides and unknowns of the current status of Covid vaccines in India:

Along the obvious upsides, such as – not all in the country needs to be vaccinated and, at least, one Covid vaccine is widely expected to come shortly that is being manufactured in India, there are several critical unknown factors, too. For example, apace with several similar articles, the research paper titled, ‘Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us,’ published in The BMJ on October 21, 2020, also raised this issue.

It pointed out: “Ideally, you want an antiviral vaccine to do two things . . . first, reduce the likelihood you will get severely ill and go to the hospital, and two, prevent infection and therefore interrupt disease transmission.” Yet the current phase III trials are not actually set up to prove either, it emphasized. None of the trials currently underway are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome, such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths. Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus.

Conclusion: 

As of December 06, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,644,529 of new Coronavirus cases with 140,216 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large in many states. The Prime Minister of India is also intimately involved in search of a meaningful solution to end the pandemic.

In this scenario, that a Covid vaccine is coming so soon, is a very good news, undoubtedly. There are several obvious upsides of this development, alongside many critical unknown areas, including how long the immunity will last after administration of a Covid vaccine. Incidentally, ‘Moderna vaccine-induced antibodies last for 3 months’ says NIAID study. Even in India a ‘Minister tested positive after the first dose of vaccine.

I am sure, the right answers will surface as the research will progress. Meanwhile, there doesn’t seem to be any other alternative sans vaccines, to kick start the globalized world – for a holistic and inclusive long-term progress, economic prosperity and, if not survival with dignity, for all.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Combating Covid Pandemic: When ‘Something Is Better Than Nothing’

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As the new Coronavirus overwhelms the world, since its global outbreak, up until November 29, 2020, over 1,458,305 people have died from this pandemic. Understandably, the Governments in all countries are frantically searching for some robust remedial measures to prevent these unfortunate deaths, besides protecting livelihoods of a vast majority of people.

For this purpose, experts considered effective preventive measures, such as vaccines could help taming this menace, alongside existing personal prevention measures. Accordingly, scientists around the world, have are hard to accelerate development and manufacturing of safe and effective Covod-19 vaccines, within the prescribed guidelines. Equally important is the fact these vaccines must be safe with predictable effectiveness- for all age groups.

The good news is, vaccines are now a distinct possibility in the near future, with the positive interim Phase III clinical trial reports pouring in. It gets reflected in the remark of the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), on November 23, 2020, at the media briefing on Covid-19. He said: There is now real hope that vaccines – in combination with other tried and tested public health measures – will help to end the pandemic.

Interestingly, amid these reports, a lurking fear of many experts also surfaces – on the impact of possible side effects, that Covid vaccine may cause, besides their medium to long term efficacy in human subjects. But, with the mounting number of deaths, near collapse of the global economy, including India, there isn’t any more time to watch and wait.

Apparently, all governments now want some scientifically relevant vaccines, instead of nothing. This article will deliberate on the one hand – an unprecedented achievement, alongside some critical concerns – voiced even by the Indian Prime Minister. Let me begin with the apprehensions, as expressed by some domain experts on some rough edges, as it were, in the process of its development.

Queries on vaccine dosing, efficacy, safety and testing:

On November 23, 2020, AstraZeneca and Oxford reported interim results of their vaccine with the average efficacy of 70% prevention. This sounded good to many, as it falls within the expectations of above a 50% standard that the FDA had set for Covid vaccines. However, the puzzling part in this result was – bigger (standard) doses of the vaccines were less efficacious. The vaccine was only 62% effective in a group that got two full doses spaced about a month apart. But among about 2,700 people who got a half-dose followed by a full, the number rose to 90%, the report highlighted. This incident prompted several questions about the most effective dose of AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine, including its safety record and the approach to testing. Consequently, apprehensions surfaced whether the Drug regulators will clear it, based on the currently available data.

It now appears, AstraZeneca ‘s Covid-19 vaccine is ‘headed for an additional global trial as the drug maker tries to clear up the uncertainty and confusion surrounding favorable results in its current study.’ Incidentally, in India - AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine will be manufactured by Pune-based Serum Institute of India (SII) under a collaborative arrangement. Let me now dwell on a broader as aspect in this space.

Could current Covid vaccines become useless in the future?

There isn’t an iota of doubt that developing Covid vaccine in ten months, which otherwise takes around ten years – is an unprecedented achievement. However, there are several other important areas in this space, where pundits have expressed uneasiness through various articles.

One such paper is titled, ‘Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees,’ published in the Nature on March 16, 2020. According to the author, a critical point in this regard is to consider ‘the potential for emerging and re-emerging Coronaviruses to cause future outbreaks.’

This is because, ‘the virus behind COVID-19 might mutate in ways that would make previously effective vaccines and antivirals useless.’ Testing vaccines and medicines without taking the time to fully understand safety risks, could bring unwarranted setbacks during the current pandemic, and into the future. ‘Despite the genuine need for urgency, the old saying holds – ‘measure twice, cut once’, the author commented.

The article concluded by suggesting, ‘any regulatory agency considering ways to accelerate treatments into testing should also weigh up how likely these drugs are to work beyond this particular Coronavirus.’ Moreover, according to the WHO, it’s too early to know if COVID-19 vaccines will provide long-term protection.

Possible side-effects of COVID-19 vaccines:

As people’s hopes swell, expecting Covid vaccines to ultimately end the deadly global pandemic, experts caution about their reported – annoying and unpleasant side effects. The November 12, 2020 paper – ‘Time to Discuss Potentially Unpleasant Side Effects of COVID Shots? Scientists Say Yes,’ published by the Kaiser Health News (KHN), also articulated similar apprehension.

It said, most Covid vaccines, including much publicized ones from Pfizer and Moderna, will require two doses to work, injections that must be given weeks apart, as company protocols show. Scientists anticipate the shots will cause enervating flu-like side effects — including sore arms, muscle aches and fever — that could last days and temporarily sideline some people from work or school.

Even with the Pfizer vaccine, which is touted to be over 90% effective, 1 in 10 recipients would still be vulnerable. There could also be a possibility that a vaccine may not suit everyone due to side-effects, especially the most vulnerable elderly population. That means, at least in the short term, as population-level immunity grows, people can’t stop social distancing and throw away their masks, the report emphasized. Even Prime Minister Modi has informed the nation about possible side effects of Covid vaccines.

PM Modi also warns of possible vaccine side-effects:

Being adequately briefed on the above perspectives related to Covid vaccines, the PM has also warned the nation about the possible side-effects. This is probably to ensure that the unpleasant experience of side-effects, after being administered the first dose, do not catch the population off-guard. Mostly because, no one should miss the second dose of vaccine for the same.

He said, during a recent video conference with the state chief ministers, ‘like many other popular medicines, any COVID-19 vaccine could lead to side-effects in some people.’ Emphasizing that both speed and safety are equally important in launching a vaccine, he assured that ‘the government would only go by science in finalizing a vaccine for the country.’

Is something better than nothing?

In the current situation, it appears so, as there is no other alternatives, except maintenance of social distancing, frequent hand sanitizing and wearing masks while outdoors. The Prime Minister also articulated sans any ambiguity: ‘Whatever vaccine makes it through the world’s certified processes, we will have to accept them and move ahead.’

In the meantime, he urged the states to keep distribution infrastructure, such as cold storages ready, the report said. Interestingly, according to Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawalla, India could approve the emergency use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine by December 2020.

That said, for mass vaccination of the population across India, another factor that is extremely important to decide which vaccine to go for – is the required storage temperature of various Covid Vaccines under development.

Required cold chain storage temperature of various Covid vaccines:

Required cold chain storage temperatures of various Covid vaccines are as follows:

Company

Type

Doses

Effectiveness*

Storage
Oxford-AstraZeneca Viral Vector (genetically modified virus) Two 62-90%** Regular fridge temp.
Moderna RNA (part of virus genetic code) Two 95% -20C up to six months
Pfizer-BioNTech RNA Two 95% -70C
Gamaleya (Sputnik V) Viral Vector Two 92% Regular fridge temp.

Source: Respective Companies, WHO – BBC News. *Preliminary Phase III results. **Two full doses: 62%, A half dose followed by a full dose: 90%, Average: 70%

From the above table, it appears, from the perspective of continuous cold chain storage facility of vaccines – till these are administered to each person, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Russian Sputnik vaccines will be more practical, despite issues with them. Viewing from this perspective, as well, it appears ‘something is better than nothing’ term can be applied in this area, as well.

Conclusion:

The Covid pandemic continues to worry India, immensely. As on November 29, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,393,039 of Coronavirus cases with 136,733 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large in many states.

Unprecedented speed in developing vaccines to effectively combat Covid Pandemic has created some initial issues. Some of these Covid vaccine challenges include, vaccine side effects, its future usefulness, or challenges towards maintaining required stringent cold chain storage requirements, especially in a country like India. Powder version of Covid vaccines, in the future, would possibly resolve this issue for all countries, across the world.

Currently, in tandem with keeping the cold-chain distribution infrastructure ready, at least, for vaccines that require regular fridge temperature, there is a need to make people aware of Covid vaccine side-effects. Otherwise, after getting first shot of a Coronavirus vaccine, many people may get so scared of its side effects that they may not come back for the second dose. If this happens, the very purpose of mass vaccination will get defeated.

However, from the Indian perspective, Covid vaccines that the country, hopefully, will shortly get, may not be the best, out of the available ones, in terms of safety and efficacy. But, for combating Covid Pandemic across India at this juncture, I reckon, the good old dictum still holds good – ‘something is better than nothing.’

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.