Tag Archives: Disruptive

Relevance of Artificial Intelligence In Creative Pharma Marketing

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Keeping pace with the challenge of change globally, the macro environment in the pharma business is also undergoing a metamorphosis. This includes areas, such as, strong product pricing pressure, dwindling new product pipelines, increasing operating expenses, stringent regulatory requirements, rising stakeholder expectations, and several others. All these developments collectively, are making the drug companies, both global and local, feel the tailwind of various intensities, in their efforts to achieve the corporate financial goals, more than ever before.

Despite this continuous change, most pharma players’ overall strategic business models to meet with the increasing economic expectations of the shareholders, other investors and the stock markets, have hardly undergone any path breaking, radical, or disruptive advancement, just yet. This includes even the most critical interface between an organization and the consumers – pharma sales and marketing.

That said, it is not uncommon, either, to witness some sporadic initiatives of major business process reengineering with sophisticated digital applications. Interestingly, all these measures are mostly replacements or for realignment of the same age old, and traditional strategic pharma sales and marketing models. Most of these are aimed at adding more speed and accuracy to the same business core process, along with ensuring greater management information and control to support the decision making process.

Despite this palpable environmental shift, general inertia within the pharma industry to respond to all these, with commensurate strategic game plans of surgical accuracy, is glaring. Currently, the general response to this transformation is mostly reactive and traditionally defensive in nature, rather than proactive, as the overall business environment around the industry keep becoming increasingly demanding. Most pharma players may not, but the time keeps galloping ahead, offering a mind boggling rapid advances in disruptive technological innovations – the potential game changers for its several business domains.

In the midst of such all-embracing changes, yet another disruptive technology – ‘Artificial Intelligence (AI)’, is prompting many business leaders to step on to a brand new paradigm, making use of AI to the extent required, especially, while preparing a detail strategic roadmap for the business with high precision.

A clear intent to seize this moment is now visible in many industries, though in varying degrees and scale, but surely it is happening. This is vindicated by the gradual increase in demand for AI, across a wide variety of its application areas.

Marketing to turn upside down?

On October 26, 2016 an article published in ‘The Huffington Post’ on how AI could ‘Turn the Marketing World Upside Down’ indicated its disruptive impact on the way innovative marketing strategies are conceived, created and implemented on the ground.

The article gave an interesting example of how paradigm shift follows a predictable pattern of development that starts with substitution, followed by augmentation, modification, and finally redefinition.

For example, the evolution of today’s smartphones also followed the same pattern, as follows:

  • First replaced simpler landline phones
  • Then adapted with the addition of a camera
  • And finally redefined “phone” altogether, not just by replacing cameras, pagers, and many functions of personal computers, but by being able to perform with great precision an incredible number of various other serious requirements, well supported by related digital apps.

With the application of AI in marketing, the conventional ball game right from conception, to charting out and execution of marketing strategies, will be catapulted to a new and fascinating orbit altogether. I have no intent to romanticizing it. This is going to happen sooner than later, as we move on.

Artificial Intelligence (AI):

In a simple and commonly understandable way ‘Artificial Intelligence (AI)’ can be explained as the theory and development of computer systems, which are able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence, such as, machine learning, visual perception, image processing, speech recognition, decision-making, and language processing, besides many others.

In the Hollywood film industry, several sci-fi movies have already been made, based on AI as the core theme. Some of these international blockbuster films are ‘The Terminator’, ‘Transcendence’, ‘The Matrix’, ‘Ex Machina’, ‘Ex Machina’ or even ‘2001: A Space Odyssey’, among many others.

Some concern, but…:

Alongside, a serious concern has also been expressed by some global icons, that the evolution of AI could reach a dangerous threshold, where mankind will no longer remain in control of the creation of its own progeny, besides other living beings. This could, as they believe, jeopardize the continuity of an entire civilization, at least, in its present form.

In 2014, globally acclaimed Professor Stephen Hawking commented in an  interview with the BBC: “Humans, limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete and would be superseded by A.I.”

In fact, in July 2015, Professor Hawking reportedly joined Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and many others, warning that AI can potentially be more dangerous than nuclear weapons.

In the same year, even Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, reportedly expressed his concerns, saying, “I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence…”

On the other hand, despite such apprehensions, AI based technology keeps evolving at a rapid pace, with the funding in AI research taking giant leaps forward. The technology has already found its cutting edge extensive applications in several warfare. We now hear almost every day about unmanned drones not just doing defense surveillance, but destroying strategic targets with jaw-dropping precision. Or for that matter, use of robots has become rather common to diffusive explosive devices of various kinds, intensity, and planted in important places to kill people. As reported by the media, ‘autonomous and self-aware robots to diminish the need for human soldiers to risk their lives.’

Google’s driverless cars also use similar AI technology offering advanced analytics-based algorithms, machine learning and deep learning processes, which could well be another game changing example in this area.

The benefits far outweigh the risks?

Be that as it may, the benefits of AI seem to far outweigh the risks, in various areas. This includes its strategic applications in the pharma industry.

This gets vindicated by the February 2016 research report of ‘Markets and Markets’ (claimed as the world’s second largest firm in publishing premium market research reports, per year), which estimated that AI market would record a turnover of around US$ 5.05 Billion by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 53.65 percent between 2015 and 2020. This market is currently dominated by the ‘Machine Learning’ technology, as it provides the computers with the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed, and are capable of updating themselves when exposed to new data.

Some of the key players operating in the artificial intelligence market are IBM Corp. (U.S.), Microsoft Corp. (U.S.), Google Inc. (U.S.), IPsoft (U.S.), FinGenius Corp. (U.K.), Rocket Fuel Inc. (U.S.), Mobileye N.V. (Israel), Kensho Technologies, Inc. (U.S.), Sentient Technologies (U.S.), and Zephyr Health (U.S.), the report revealed.

AI in pharma:

Over the last decade, AI is being increasingly used by various industries, as a key support to the strategic decision making process, in various areas of business. Understandably, in pharma its use has been rather limited, as on date. Nevertheless, there are several key domains within the pharma industry, where effective use of AI has the potential to be a critical performance enhancer. These areas include, not just in discovery research, or in clinical trials, or in sales and marketing, but also in setting the right strategic direction for the company.

However, in this article, I shall focus mainly on the application of AI in pharma marketing.

AI in pharma marketing:

Although AI is now being sparsely used, it is expected to be more widely used in pharma research and development. It also shows tremendous potential in developing creative sales and marketing strategies, with great accuracy.

So far, pharma marketing strategies are based more on the qualitative data, some traditional quantitative data, and a huge dose of marketers ‘gut feel’. It continues to happen, when the world, including India, is moving towards innovative data driven decision models. If one chooses to, now a pharma marketer also can make effective use of an abundantly available wide variety of quality data to feel the pulse of the markets, consumers and any identified issues, with great precision. Thereafter, based on these real life hard facts, the team needs to put in place for implementation, with an open and innovative mind, a creative sales and marketing game plan, to achieve the set goals.

Would that mean, a pharma marketer should necessarily be an expert in a huge volume of data analysis? I don’t guess so. ‘Machine Learning’, ‘Deep Learning’ and other analytics-based processes of AI can help them enormously to do so.

AI based analytics has now been proved to be far more reliable than any human analysis of the humongous volume of different kinds of quality data. Doing so is even beyond the capacity of any conventional computers that a marketing professional generally uses for this purpose.

The prime requirement for this purpose, therefore, is not just huge volume of data per se, but good quality of a decent volume of data, that a state of the art analytics would be able to meaningfully deliver, that is tailor made to meet the specific requirements of pharma marketers to create a cutting edge marketing strategy.

Areas of AI use in pharma – some examples:

AI will be extremely useful to arrive at the most effective strategic options available, with pros and cons, to achieve the core sales and marketing objectives of the organization, both long and short term.

It can also add immense value right at the decision making stages to determine the key ingredients of an effective strategic plan in a number of critical areas, such as:

  • Arriving at the optimal product-portfolio-mix with the right expense tag attached to each brand
  • Deep learning about market dynamics, customer behavior and their interplay
  • Matching unmet customer needs with enhanced and differentiated value offerings – both tangible and intangible
  • Effective bundling of brand offerings and associated services for each patient segment
  • Selecting the right mix of communication channels, including social media, to ensure maximum productivity in reaching each category of the target audience
  • Detailed strategic blueprint for each type of stakeholder engagement, along with related value offerings
  • Arriving at the best possible resource-mix with the available budget
  • Real-time monitoring of each strategic action steps, consistently, making quick changes on the run, if and when required

Pharma AI platforms are already available:

There are a number of AI platforms now available for the pharmaceutical companies, across the world. For example, in September 2015, by a Press Release, Eularis – a leading provider of next-generation advanced marketing analytics to the Pharma industry, announced the release of the E-VAI, the latest development in sophisticated machine learning technology delivering next-generation analytics and decision making for Pharma marketers globally.

Another recent example of AI in this area, as well, is ‘Salesforce Einstein’. It delivers advanced AI capabilities in sales, service, and marketing, and enables anyone to build AI-powered apps that get smarter with every interaction. According to Salesforce, it will enable everyone in every role and industry to use AI to be their best.

Conclusion:

The use of AI in pharma is still in its nascent stage today. However, for a sustainable business excellence in its various domains, AI is increasingly proving to be of great relevance, now and also in the future. Sales and marketing is one such domains.

With the passage of time, both the macro and micro pharma business operating environments are changing fast, primarily driven by changing expectations of stakeholders, the public at large, and disruptive algorithmic technical innovations, based on advanced science, statistics and mathematics.

The scope to effectively utilize the full potential of advanced algorithmic technical tools, is huge. It is easier now to capture a massive volume of pharma related high quality raw data of different kinds, for tailor-made innovative analysis, with the help of AI based analytics, while creating cutting-edge strategic game plans.

Nonetheless, pharma players apparently continue to chart the same strategic frontier where there are many footsteps to follow. Many of them have restricted themselves to no more than digitally re-engineering the same overall business processes that they have been already following, since long. Just a few of them are making use of the leading edge analytics involving AI, such as ‘Machine Learning’, ‘Deep Learning’, ‘Visual Perception’, ‘Image Processing, besides many others, which can be more ‘patient-centric’ and at the same help deliver a strong business performance.

Thus, quicker adaptation, and thereafter continuous scaling up applications of high quality AI based analytics in creative pharma marketing, are not just of immense relevance today, they also bring with them the commensurate potential for sustainable excellence in financial performance of the organization, fueled by critical early mover advantage.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma R&D: Chasing A Rainbow To Replicate The Past

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Would future be always a replica of the past?

If the response is yes, the efforts of many global pharma players to replicate the successful Research and Development (R&D) models of long gone by days, would continue to be a grand success. The new drug pipeline would remain rich and sustainable. R&D costs would be increasingly more productive, with the rapid and more frequent churning out of blockbuster drugs, in various therapy areas.

However, an affirmative response to this question, if any, has to be necessarily supported by relevant credible data from independent sources.

Additionally, yet another equally critical query would surface. Why then the prices of newer innovative drugs have started going through the roof, with the rapid escalation of R&D expenses?

Thus, there is a need to ponder whether the continued hard effort by many large innovator companies in this direction is yielding the desired results or not.

In this article, I shall try to dwell on this issue with the most recent data available with us.

A new research report:                

A new research report of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions titled, “Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation 2015: Transforming R&D returns in uncertain times” states that the R&D returns of major life sciences industry groups have fallen to their lowest point in 2015, since 2010. The report tracked and reviewed the estimated returns of 12 leading global life sciences companies.

Some of the data presented in this report would give an idea about the magnitude of current challenges in this space. Nevertheless, there could be a few rare and sporadic green shoots, which can also be cited to claim a revival in this area.

I am quoting below some key pharma R&D trends, for the period starting from 2010 to 2015, as illustrated in the Deloitte report:                      

A. Declining R&D productivity: 

Year R&D return (%)
2010 10.1
2011 7.6
2012 7.3
2013 4.8
2014 5.5
2015 4.2

B. Increasing drug development cost with decreasing estimated sales:

During 2010 to 2015 period, the average peak sales estimate per drug has fallen by 50 percent from US$ 816 million to US$416 million per year, while the development costs per drug, during the same period increased by 33 percent, from US$ 1.188 billion to US$ 1.576 billion.

C.  Smaller Companies showing better R&D productivity:

Between 2013-2015, relatively smaller companies showed better R&D productivity as follows:

  • Big companies: 5 percent
  • Mid to large cap companies: 17 percent

D. External innovation becoming increasingly more important:             

Again, mid to large cap companies opting for more external innovation are showing a higher proportion of late stage pipeline value, as below:

  • Big companies: 54 percent
  • Mid to large cap companies: 79 percent
A fear of failure?

The Deloitte report throws some light on the general stakeholders’ concerns about the exorbitantly high price fixation for innovative new drugs by the concerned companies, together with consequential macroeconomic pressures.

One of the key suggestions made in this report, is to increase the focus on reduction of R&D costs, while accelerating the new drug development timelines. I shall broach upon this point briefly just in a short while.

However, the stark reality today, the hard efforts still being made by many large global drug companies to almost replicate the old paradigm of highly productive pharma R&D, though with some tweaking here or there, are not yielding expected results. The return on R&D investments is sharply going south, as the new drug prices rocketing towards north.

Is it happening due to a paralyzing fear of failure, that moving out of the known and the traditional sphere of the new drug discovery models could impact the stock markets adversely, making the concerned CEOs operational environment too hot to bear?

Be that as it may, without venturing into the uncharted frontiers of the new drug discovery models, would it at all be possible to bring out such drugs at a reasonable affordable price to the patients, ever?

I have deliberated before, in this blog, some of the possible eclectic ways in this area, including in one of my very recent articles on January 4, 2016 titled, “2015: Pharma Industry Achieved Some, Could Achieve Some More”.

New innovative drugs evaluated over priced: 

Here, I would not quote the prices of Sovaldi and its ilk, which are known to many. I intend to give examples of just two other new drugs that have triggered significant interest as potential advances for the care of patients in two common disease areas, namely, asthma and diabetes. These two drugs are GlaxoSmithKline’s Nucala® (Mepolizumab) for Asthma and Novo Nordisk’s Tresiba® (Insulin Degludec) for Diabetes.

According a December 21, 2015 report of the ‘Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER)’ of the United States:

“The annual price of mepolizumab would need to be discounted 63-76% to be better aligned with value to patients and the health system, while insulin degludec would need to be discounted less than 10% to do so.”

Thus, there has been a growing mismatch between the value that new innovative drugs, in general, offers to the patients and the price that the innovator companies fix for such drugs. This trend, if continues, would significantly limit patients’ access to new drugs, as the pharma players keep chasing disproportionately high profitability to increase their shareholder value.

External sourcing of R&D may not make new drugs affordable:

Taking a cue from the highly successful strategy of Gilead, especially what it has done with Sovaldi and Harvoni, if other major global pharma players’ also try to enrich their late stage new drug molecule pipeline from external sources, would that effectively resolve the core issue? 

In my view, this could possibly be one of the ways to contain R&D expenses and with much lesser risk, as suggested in the Deloitte report. However, I doubt, whether the same would effectively help bringing down the prices of newer innovative drugs, in tandem.

This is primarily because of the following contemporary example, that we now have with us.

Although the active compound that is used to manufacture Sovaldi, or for that matter even Harvoni, is not Gilead’s in-house discovery, the prices of these drugs have already gone through the roof. 

It is altogether a different matter that robust patent laws along with the Government vigilance on obnoxious drug pricing is gradually increasing in various countries. Some developed and developing markets of the world, including the Unites States and the United Kingdom, either already have or are now mulling for an effective counter check to irresponsible drug pricing, primarily by putting the ‘innovation’ bogey right at the very front.

In India, prompted by its robust patent law and to avoid any possibility of Compulsory Licensing (CL), Gilead ultimately decided to give Voluntary Licenses (CL) for Sovaldi to several Indian drug companies. These pharma players will manufacture the drug in India and market it in the country at a much lesser price.

A new cooperative effort for cancer drugs:

On January 11 2016, ‘The New York Times’ reported the formation of ‘National Immunotherapy Coalition (NIC)’. This is a cooperative effort by some leading global pharma companies to speed up the testing of new types of cancer drugs that harness the body’s immune system to battle tumors. The NIC will try to rapidly test various combinations of such drugs.

This is important, as many researchers believe that combinations of two or more drugs that engage different parts of the immune system might be effective for more patients than a single drug.

On the face of it, this initiative appears to be a step in the right direction and could make the cancer drugs more affordable to patients. However, only future will tell us whether it happens that way or not.

Conclusion:

Nevertheless, the bottom line is, to make the new innovative drugs available at an affordable price to patients, along with strict vigilance by the government bodies, the old and a traditional ball game of drug discovery has to change.

This would necessarily require fresh eyes, inquiring minds and high IQ brains that can bring forth at least significant eclectic changes, if not a disruptive innovation, in the new drug discovery and development process, across the world.

Otherwise, and especially when the low-hanging fruits of drug discovery have already been plucked, if the major global pharma players continue striving to replicate the grand old path of new drug discovery, the efforts could very likely be, and quite akin to, chasing a rainbow.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Digital Therapeutics: Unfolding A Disruptive Innovation In Healthcare

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On November 9, 2015, ‘The Wall Street Journal (WSJ)’ in an interesting article reported, “Your doctor may soon prescribe you a smartphone app in addition to drugs and physical therapy.”

The hospitals in the United States (US) are developing new mobile apps to help patients manage serious medical conditions, record symptoms and communicate back to their doctors between visits, often in real time, besides helping patients adhere to their therapy, WSJ highlighted. The real beauty in these apps is, in addition to sending messages, reminders and instructions, the apps can alert providers to developing clinical problems before they become a crisis.

For example, “a new app from the University of Michigan called ‘Breast Cancer Ally’ is offered to patients to help them manage the onslaught of information and instructions they get throughout their diagnosis and treatment. It allows patients to look up and record their symptoms and provides guidance on when to consult the doctor about complications or concerns.”

Quoting experts, the article states, “this is a technology that is in everyone’s pocket and makes patients feel engaged in their own care.”

The implication of this development is profound. It appears, there could be a near term possibility of the same, for better, comprehensive health monitoring, leading to better quality of life and undergoing lesser hassles, if not hassle-free, as compared to what it is today in doing so.

Immense value in management of chronic diseases:

Besides serious ailments, these customized digital apps for smartphone, could be used to derive therapeutic impact in the early stages of chronic diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension.

As is well-known, in the early onset of most of the non-infectious chronic diseases, self-management plays a critical role to prevent the progression of the disease, saving significant treatment costs, besides other serious and expensive physiological complications in the future.

To achieve this goal, there is a critical need to appropriately educate the patients through doctors, along with the active role of pharmaceutical players. This could well be a win-win situation for the manufacturers of these products to productively engage the patients, not just for disease management, but for the commercial success of their respective brands too, with a well crafted integrated business strategy.

Digital Therapeutics:

Thus, these health apps serve the role of ‘Digital Therapies (DT)’, as well, for patients, especially at the onset of chronic ailments and to prevent any sudden crisis in serious disease conditions.

DT has, therefore, been defined as web, mobile, wearable and other digital technologies combined into an intervention to support healthy behaviors and provide therapeutic impact.

As stated earlier, DT has the potential to offer immense opportunity for patient engagement and to bring in substantial change in their health behavior with remarkable both short and long term cost-effectiveness.

The opportunities:

Offering DT to patients in India may not be very challenging either, on the contrary, it is an area of opportunity for all the interested players, especially when we go by the following facts: 

  • According to the latest report from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) mobile phone subscriber base in India recorded 6.71 percent YoY growth to 980.81 million users in Q2 2015.
  • There were approximately 82 million 3G subscribers in India by the end of 2014 and the number is projected to reach 284 million by end of year 2017.
  • SMS, email, messaging and social networking apps are the most popular ones.
  • The Indian Government has expressed its commitment to setting up a robust digital infrastructure and to promote adoption of mobile Internet and related products and services.
  • In 2014-15, the Government budgeted INR 500 crore for building infrastructure as per the National Rural Internet and Technology Mission.

Currently, as the smartphones enable individuals to access various types of information, suggestions and advice from anywhere 24×7, in the above emerging scenario, an increasing number of patients are likely to opt for digital therapeutic tools for self-management of health more effectively. 

This is a win-win situation for all, including the pharma companies, though with a contemporary and honed strategic business model.

In the foreseeable future:

An October 2013 paper of IMS Institute, titled “Patient Apps for Improved Healthcare” expects that over a period of time, the health app maturity model will see apps’ progress from being recommended on an ad hoc basis by individual physicians, to systematic use in healthcare, and ultimately to an end goal of being a fully integrated component of healthcare management.

The study makes the following important observations:

  • The patients are unlike to ever have the tools to replace the roles of the physician
  • Health apps may encourage patients to take a more active interest in their overall well being and understand the consequences of poor health in later life.
  • By having the patients aligned with the importance of wellness programs and sickness prevention, health systems can hope to realize savings, especially from a lower burden of multiple chronic conditions. 
  • The Governments may consider making patients aware of the need to take increasing responsibility for their own healthcare, by providing incentives to stay healthy, where health apps could play a major role.

The paper also underscores the following four key steps to move through on this process:

  • Recognition by payers and providers of the important role that apps can play in healthcare 
  • Security and privacy guidelines and assurances must be in place between providers, patients and app developers
  • Systematic curation and evaluation of apps that can provide both physicians and patients with useful summarized content about apps that can aid decision-making regarding their appropriate use 
  • Integration of apps with other aspects of patient care

“Underpinning all of this will be the generation of credible evidence of value derived from the use of apps that will demonstrate the nature and magnitude of behavioral changes or improved health outcomes,” the paper comments.

According to available information, currently in the United States, around 100 advanced health apps have been approved by the FDA. However, all these are not for the use of patients. Some of these are for the use of doctors. Other sets of apps are available to patients only against doctors’ prescriptions. The rest is mainly for fitness and general life style related, and are affordable only to a limited number of people.

Key benefits of ‘Digital Therapeutics’:

To summarize, the key benefits of digital therapeutics are as follows:

  • More cost-efficient, as compared to conventional alternatives.
  • Help doctors managing disease conditions through constant monitoring with digital technology 
  • Make patients more aware and even proactive with real time information in preventing many diseases, avoiding disease aggravation and improving quality of life.
  • Make sharing of information between doctors and patients easier and effective.

Some concerns:

In many countries, including India, many health apps do not have appropriate health regulatory approval. Hence, a number of key concerns, in general, have been raised in this area for speedy resolution, some of which are as follows:

  • Product and data quality
  • Reliability in treatment decisions
  • Privacy and security for patients

Not many pharma companies are engaged in ‘Digital Therapeutics’:

In my view, there is a solid reason why many global pharma companies are still not adequately engaged with digital therapeutics.

They are generally actively involved in the high voltage advocacy by encouraging innovation, which usually does not go beyond drug discovery. This championing does not talk much either, about charting the broader area of comprehensive disease prevention, treatment and management with the application of disruptive innovation, involving other non drug related digital technologies, which are cost effective to patients.

With the low hanging fruits of drug innovation, resulting into money-churning blockbuster drugs with huge margin and almost in no time, made most of these innovator drug companies comfortable with their current business model of only drug discovery.

This business model is now exhibiting enough signs of fatigue with research pipelines gradually drying out.

Nonetheless, there are some indications now of a few pharma players’ exploring this new area of digital therapeutics, but as an extension of the current business models. It still remains a challenging decision for most of them to shift the gear, moving towards a new horizon of a winning mix of new drugs and path breaking digital therapeutics. 

Conclusion:

These are still early days for the majority of the pharma players looking at commercially leveraging the potential of possible customized offerings of digital health apps as integrated digital therapeutics for patients’ self-care health benefits. What we have seen so far is the drug companies using health apps as a tool to market a drug and not much beyond that.

I discussed this issue in my article in this blog on March 30, 2015, titled, “Quantum Value Addition With Health Apps, Going Beyond Drugs”.

An April 17, 2014 article published in the ‘Forbes/Business’ epitomizes the relevance of digital therapeutics in the modern day healthcare, even in the countries like India, as follows:

“Three out of four Americans will die of a disease that could be avoided—if only they could re-route their unhealthy habits. A new category of medicine, digital therapeutics, wants to change the course of these conditions – and of history.”

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

A Disruptive Innovation in Healthcare – Personalized Medicines

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Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development (Tufts University) in its publication named ‘Impact Report’, November/December 2010 articulated, “Biopharmaceutical companies are committed to researching and developing personalized medicines and within their development pipelines, 12%-50% of compounds are personalized medicines.”

Thus the disruptive innovation process towards ‘Personalized Medicines’ have already begun. Over a period of time ‘Personalized Medicines’ will be targeted to the biological/genomic profile of an individual to significantly improve the quality of healthcare to the patients.

This paradigm shift in the healthcare space would prompt similar changes in various disease diagnostic technologies, which will not only be able to detect a disease well before the appearance of symptoms, but would also  indicate which patients will best respond to or be adversely affected by which medications.

‘Personalized Medicines’ will in that process ensure a critical shift from the disease oriented treatment to a patient oriented treatment, which can be initiated much before the clinical manifestations of a disease are detected.

The technological march towards this direction is indeed risky and arduous one. However, the benefits that the humanity will accrue out of this disruptive innovation will far outweigh the risks in all forms.

Personalized Medicines:

Rapid strides in pharmacogenomics bring in a promise of radically different ways of treating diseases, as major pharmaceutical companies of the world make progress in developing much more effective medicines designed to target smaller populations.

The above ‘Impact Report’ defines Personalized Medicines as:

“Tailoring of medical treatment and delivery of health care to the individual characteristics of each patient—including their genetic, molecular, imaging and other personal determinants. Using this approach has the potential to speed accurate diagnosis, decrease side effects, and increase the likelihood that a medicine will work for an individual patient.”

‘Personalized Medicines’ are expected to be an effective alternative to quite unwieldy current ‘blockbuster drugs’ business model.

What is then the aim of ‘Personalized Medicines’?
The aim of ‘personalized medicines’ is, therefore, to make a perfect fit between the drug and the patient. It is worth noting that genotyping is currently not a part of clinically accepted routine. However, it is expected to acquire this status in the western world, very shortly.

Some interesting recent developments:

  1. The Economist, March 12-18, 2011 in its article titled “Toward the 15-minute genome” reported that ‘nanopore sequencing’ of human genome is now gaining momentum. This could make sequencing of entire genomes of cancerous and healthy cells possible to accurately point out what has exactly changed in individual patients, enabling the oncologists to determine patient specific drugs for best possible results in each case, separately.
  2. New cancer marker has been reported to aid earlier detection of the disease, where repetitive stretches of RNA are found in high concentrations in cancer cells.
  3. A new blood test will accurately detect early cancer of all types with an accuracy of greater than 95%, when repeated the accuracy will even be even greater than 99%.
  4. ‘Breast On A Chip’ will test nano-medical detection and treatment options for breast cancer
  5. A brain scan will detect the telltale “amyloid plaques,” the protein fragments that accumulate between nerves in Alzheimer’s disease

In what way ‘Personalized Medicines’ will be different?

With ‘Personalized Medicines’ the health of a patient will be managed based on personal characteristics of the individual, including height, weight, diet, age, sex etc. instead of defined “standards of care”, based on averaging response across a patient group. Pharmacogenomics tests like, sequencing of human genome will determine a patient’s likely response to such drugs.
These are expected to offer more targeted and effective treatment with safer drugs, and presumably at a lesser cost. Such medicines will also help identify individuals prone to serious ailments like, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer and help physicians to take appropriate preventive measures, simultaneously. ‘Personalized medicines’ in that process will focus on what makes each patient so unique, instead of going by the generalities of a disease.
To give a quick example, genetic differences within individuals determine how their bodies react to drugs such as Warfarin, a blood thinner taken to prevent clotting. It is of utmost importance to get the dosing right, as more of the drug will cause bleeding and less of it will not have any therapeutic effect.
‘Personalized medicines’, therefore, have the potential to bring in a revolutionary change the way patients are offered treatment by the medical profession. Genomic research will enable physicians to use a patient’s genetic code to arrive at how each patient will respond to different types of treatments.
In the field of cancer, genetic tests are currently being done by many oncologists to determine which patients will be benefitted most, say by Herceptin, in the treatment of breast cancer.
Expected benefits from ‘Personalized Medicines’:

The expected benefits from the ‘Personalized Medicines’, besides very early diagnosis as stated above, are the following:
1. More Accurate dosing: Instead of dose being decided based on age and body weight of the patients, the physicians may decide and adjust the dose of the medicines based on the genetic profiling of the patients.
2. More Targeted Drugs: It will be possible for the pharmaceutical companies to develop and market drugs for patients with specific genetic profiles. In that process, a drug needs to be tested only on those who are likely to derive benefits from it. This in turn will be able to effectively tailor clinical trials, expediting the process of market launch of these drugs.
3. Improved Health care: ‘Personalized Medicines’ will enable the physicians to prescribe ‘the right dose of the right medicine the first time for everyone’. This would give rise to much better overall healthcare.
Role of Pharmaceutical and Biotech companies:
Many research based pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies have taken a leading role towards development of ‘personalized medicines’ in line with their key role as healthcare enterprises. India is also taking keen interest in this science.
Some important issues:
However, there are some ethical and social issues in the development of ‘personalized medicines’ primarily in the area of genetic testing and consideration of race in the development of such medicines, which need to be effectively addressed, sooner.
Can it replace the ‘Blockbuster Drugs’ business model?
Realization of deficiencies in the economics of ‘block buster drugs’ R&D business model has made ‘personalized medicines’ a reality today.
Better efficacy and safety profile of ‘personalized medicines’ will prove to be cost-effective in the overall healthcare systems. Smaller and exclusive markets for ‘personalized medicines’ are also expected to be quite profitable for the pharmaceutical companies. However, such smaller segmentation of the market may not leave enough space for the conventional ‘blockbuster model’, which is the prime mover of the global pharmaceutical industry, even today.
Reports indicate that some renowned global pharmaceutical companies like, Roche, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline are making good progress towards this direction through collaborative initiatives.
Approximate cost of ‘Genome Sequencing’:
When human genome was first sequenced, the reported cost was staggering U.S$ 3 billion. However, with the advancement of technology, it came down to U.S$ 1 million, last year. Currently, the cost has further come down to U.S$ 60,000. With the rapid stride made in the field of biotechnology, combined with the economies of scale, cost of such genetic tests is expected to be around U.S$ 1,000 in near future, making it possible for people to obtain the blue print of their genetic code.
Savings on cost of Clinical trials with ‘Personalized Medicines’:
Genome sequencing will help identifying a patient population, which will be far more likely to respond positively to the new treatment. In that process, if it reduces costs of clinical trial by even 5%, expected net savings for the industry towards clinical trial have been reported to be around U.S$ 5 billion.
With ‘personalized medicines’ the innovator companies will be able to significantly reduce both time, costs and the risks involved in obtaining regulatory approvals and penetrating new markets with simultaneous development of necessary diagnostic tests. Such tests will be able to identify patients group who will not only be most likely to be benefitted from such medicines, but also will be least likely to suffer from adverse drug reactions.
Therefore, considerable cost advantages coupled with much lesser risks of failure and significant reduction in the lead time for clinical trials are expected to make ‘personalized medicines’ much more cost effective, compared to conventional ‘blockbuster drugs’.
Innovative and cost effective way to market ‘Personalized Medicines’:
With ‘personalized medicines’ the ball game of marketing pharmaceuticals is expected to undergo a paradigm shift. Roche’s model of combining necessary diagnostic tests with new drugs will play a very important role in the new paradigm.
Roche is ensuring that with accompanying required diagnostic tests, the new oncology products developed at Genentech can be precisely matched to patients.
Can ‘Personalized Medicines’ be used in ‘Primary Care’ also?
To use ‘personalized medicines’ in a ‘primary care’ situation, currently there is no successful model. However, it has been reported that in states like, Wisconsin in the U.S, initiative to integrate genomic medicines with ‘primary care’ has already been undertaken. Scaling-up operations of such pilot projects will give a big boost to revolutionize the use of ‘personalized medicines’ for precision and targeted treatment of the ailing population.

Conclusion:

In my view, there does not seem to be any possibility of looking back now. The robust business model of ‘personalized medicines’, will now be the way forward, as much to the industry as to the patients. It is a win-win game.

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.