Covid Vaccine Challenges – Abidance To Defined Health Norms Stays As Lifeguard

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Tapan Ray

There isn’t even a shade of doubt today that Covid-vaccines are coming. However, some critical questions in this area continue to hang in the air, and are expected to remain so for some more time. Thus, every news on the development of Covid vaccines, particularly in their late stages of clinical trials, fuels billions of hopes and excitement, across the world.

The same thing happened, when Pfizer and BioNTech announced on November 09, 2020, some key details on their vaccine candidate. These include, ‘vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis’ from Phase 3 studies. The release also highlighted, ‘Submission for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) planned for soon after the required safety milestone is achieved, which is currently expected to occur in the third week of November.’

Amid these new developments, it is also now beyond doubt that the pandemic will be brought under control, eventually. Interestingly, none possibly knows when it will happen. There doesn’t seem to be any clearly charted – time-bound pathway in place for the same, either – not just yet. That said, from the overall developments in this area for the past 10 months, especially in India, – two other crucial questions also remain elusive, as follows:

Has the country started preparing itself against any Covid-like future biological threats? If so, in what manner?
As India conducts the world’s largest Universal Immunization Program (UIP), how robust is the country’s vaccine supply chain to effectively inoculate every Indian with Covid-vaccine?

I have already deliberated on several aspects of the former question in one of my previous articles, in this write-up. Therefore, this write-up will focus on the second query, with a specific reference to the continued relevance of abidance of the defined health norms for some more time, especially for my pharma industry readers. Accordingly, all astute pharma professionals in India, need to accept this new reality, and rewrite their brand demand generation strategies for the new normal. Let me start with how the cold-chain logistics for vaccines, in general, work in the country.

The cold-chain logistics for vaccines:

A paper published by the BBC News, on November 11, 2020, captured how the cold-chain logistics for vaccines, in general, work almost in all countries, including India. The article is titled, ‘Coronavirus: How soon can we expect a working vaccine?’ The steps involved in this exercise are as follows:

Vaccines transported to destination countries (imported varieties).
Refrigerated trucks for transportation to designated cold rooms.
Distribution in portable and appropriate ice boxes to regional centers.
Stored in electric fridges between 2 degree to 10 degree Celsius (for most of the existing vaccines.)
Carried in portable and appropriate ice boxes to local venues for vaccination to individuals.

Associated challenges:

As the above paper highlighted, some important associated challenges in this space, which are mostly faced by the developing countries, like India, are as follows:

Adding a new vaccine to the existing mix could pose huge logistical problems for those already facing a difficult environment.

According to prescribed norms, all Vaccines in India requires a storage temperature in the range of +2 degree to +8 degree Celsius, except for Oral Polio Vaccine which need to be stored in the frozen state (-25 degree – 15 degree Celsius) at all stores except PHC/ CHC/Health post. The new vaccine ROTAVAC (116E rotavirus) by Bharat Biotech is being recommended to be stored at (-15 to -25 degree Celsius) till the intermediate stores and to be stored in the range of +2 degree to +8 degree Celsius at the last storage points like PHC/ CHC/Health posts. This has not posed much of a challenge. However, expanding it to cover the entire population of the country can be an “immense task.”

It is worth noting, although, AstraZeneca vaccine would need the regular cold chain between 2C and 8C, the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine would need ultra-cold chain – storage at around minus 70C to 80C.

‘Maintaining vaccines under cold chain is already one of the biggest challenges’ that countries face, and this will be exacerbated with the introduction of a new Covid vaccine.

Thus, more cold chain equipment will require to be added, making sure that fuel is always available (to run the freezer and refrigerators in absence of electricity) and repair/replace them when they break and transport them wherever you need them.

Curiously, India’s cold-chain logistics that cater to one of the world’s largest immunization programs for children and mothers, may not be enough for Covid-19 vaccination of the country’s 1.3 billion population.

Why India’s cold-chain logistics may not be enough for Covid vaccination:

Before coming to the above question, it is important to note that India is not just the pharmacy of the world, contributing over 20 per cent by value to the global generics market, and over 40 per cent (by volume) of US drugs. According to a recent report of Bernstein Research, Indian vaccine producers, such as, Serum Institute of India supply the bulk – over 40% of the global capacity of 5.7 billion doses annually. Home to some of the world’s biggest vaccine makers, India produces 2.3 billion doses of vaccines yearly, with 74% for export, said the report.

Regardless of this fact, India’s cold-chain logistics may not be enough for Covid vaccination of its entire population, primarily because it is currently geared for children. ‘India Spend’ report of October 13, 2020 titled, ‘India’s COVID-19 Dilemma: Adults Need Vaccines, Supply Chains Geared For Children,’ presents several such interesting facts to ponder over the following points:

Being the world’s largest in the Universal Immunization Program (UIP), India targets 26.7 million newborns and 29 million pregnant women every year (55 million people in total, or 4% of the total population). This requires 390 million doses of vaccines, over nine million sessions. But, can this infrastructure effectively handle Covid vaccination of 1.3 billion people?

The above question arises, because India has planned to administer 400 to 500 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, mostly to its adult population by the first two quarters of 2021. For this effort, the country will have to nearly double the total number of vaccinations given in the public sector program. Thus, one can well imagine, what a humongous task, it will be for vaccination of 1.3 billion population, at the shortest possible time.

Which is why – although, over the last decades, India has created a primary vaccination infrastructure, and gained enough experience in this area, these may not be enough for Covid mass vaccination program, as stated above.

What it would it entail:

As the above ‘India Spend’ report indicates, this effort will entail:

Ramping up capacity to administer vaccines,
Expanding and further strengthening cold-chain infrastructure and process of storing and transporting vaccines safely, besides logistics,
Ensuring adequate availability of ancillary items, such as syringes, glass vials, and intensive training of healthcare workers.

Without these, even if there is a life-saving vaccine available for COVID-19, people will not have access to effective vaccines, the report reiterates. From this perspective, let’s now have a glance to India’s current vaccine cold-chain logistics and infrastructure.

India’s current vaccine cold-chain logistics:

Currently, most vaccines in India are distributed by the Governments UIP mechanism. Accordingly, for the child immunization program, almost the entire vaccine cold chain is publicly funded and managed.

Going by the official statistics, at present there are in total – about 7,645 cold storages in the countrywith 68 per cent of the capacity being used for potato, while 30 per cent is a multi-commodity cold storage. ‘Most of these cater to farm produce in rural areas with ambient temperature storage and therefore are not pharmaceutical ready.’ As the industry sources indicate, ‘only a small part of the remaining 10 per cent of the industry is organized and capable of playing a key role in the distribution of the Covid vaccine.’

The comprehensive multi-year UIP plan for 2018-22 of India also specifies, while India’s UIP is currently supported by more than 27,000 functional cold chain points, only 750 (3 per cent) are located at or above the district level. The rest is located below the district level.

Nevertheless, the ongoing pandemic prompts India to administer Covid vaccines to its entire population of 1.3 billion population, over the shortest possible period of time. To achieve this goal, the cold chain industry of the country is warming up to handle this vaccine distribution challenge, maintaining the integrity of the cold chain.

The only organized pan-India cold chain player with 31 facilities is, reportedly, Snowman Logistics. Other companies, who are mostly the regional operators in this business, include Coldex, ColdStar, Western Refrigeration and JWL. Yet another report indicates, Maersk, is also poised inking a global logistics deal with US-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate COVAXX, including India. Be that as it may, the bottom-line remains, effective Covid vaccination program would not possibly commence until this gap is successfully bridged.

Conclusion:

Meantime, as on November 15, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 8,814,902 of Coronavirus cases with 129,674 deaths. The average number of daily new cases appeared to have slowed down in the last few weeks, except Delhi. But, the threat of further spread of Covid infection, in waves, remains as it was before.

Robust and high-quality vaccine cold chain logistics in India assumes so much of importance, because of one critical factor – to preserve its effectiveness till administered to an individual. This is regardless of whether a person is located in cities, small towns or in the remote hinterlands of the country. The successful accomplishment of this task is crucial to combat Covid pandemic, until scientists find any predictable long-term solution.

The good news is, according to a new report: ‘Amid cold chain blues, Pfizer looks to powder vaccine formula in 2021.’ BBC News also reported: ‘A group of Indian scientists are working on such a vaccine. The “warm” or a heat-stable vaccine, they claim, can be stored at 100C for 90 minutes, at 70C for about 16 hours, and at 37C for more than a month and more.’

While the world awaits to witness this happening, we all should recognize a current reality. Tough challenges are still looming large on the way of effective Covid mass vaccination programs, especially for all adult population in India. Thus, the gravity for abidance to basic infection avoidance norms – wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding crowded places, stay unchanged. Accordingly, all astute pharma professionals in India, I reckon, need to accept the prevailing reality, and rewrite their brand demand generation strategies for the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

India Being World’s Third largest Covid Vaccine Maker: Will All Indians Benefit?

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Tapan Ray

Apprehensions on the time of availability notwithstanding, equitable access to Covid vaccines for all, remain the best hope to leash the deadly virus, as the pandemic overwhelms the world. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) ‘Coronavirus Update 37’ of October 06, 2020, as of October 02, 2020, there are 42 COVID-19 candidate vaccines in clinical evaluation of which 10 in Phase III trials.

Recently, the article, published in the Harvard Business Review on April 02, 2020, also flagged this critical area – ‘A Covid-19 Vaccine Will Need Equitable, Global Distribution.’ The paper highlighted: ‘The time to prepare for globally distributing a Covid-19 vaccine in a way that is effective and equitable is now. It will have a long-term payoff by helping to prevent future pandemics, which scientists predict will be more common as the earth’s climate warms.’

Even Bill Gates’ article, published in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) on February 28, 2020, expressed a similar apprehension. The article is titled - ‘Responding to Covid-19 – A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic?’ Gates also articulated: “During a pandemic, vaccines and antivirals can’t simply be sold to the highest bidder. They should be available and affordable for people who are at the heart of the outbreak and in greatest need. Not only is such distribution the right thing to do, it’s also the right strategy for short-circuiting transmission and preventing future pandemics.”

He too urged all concerned to ensure that during a pandemic, vaccines and antivirals aren’t ‘simply be sold to the highest bidder.’ On the contrary, these should be made available, affordable and accessible to all. ‘Not only is such distribution the right thing to do, it’s also the right strategy for short-circuiting transmission and preventing future pandemics,’ he asserted.

Does any authority pay heed to these suggestions? The question remains unanswered. Interestingly, on September 17, 2020 by a Press Release, Oxfam International reported, ‘leading wealthy nations representing just 13 percent of the world’s population have already cornered more than half (51 percent) of the promised doses of Covid-19 vaccine candidates.’ This is regardless of where these vaccines are manufactured, including India.

These prompt one to wonder, ‘Would India’s possible rise as the world’s third largest vaccine manufacturer benefit all Indians, with affordable and equitable access to Covid prevention shots? In this article, I shall dwell in this area.

India emerges as the world’s third largest Covid vaccine producer:

According to August 24, 2020 edition of the Nature publication, if all of the frontrunner candidates of Covid vaccines are approved, more than 10 billion doses could be available by the end of 2021. Most of these vaccines will be made in the North America and Europe. The top Covid vaccine manufacturing countries are estimated to be the United States, followed by the United Kingdom, India, Norway and France, the report highlights.

However, wealthy countries have already struck deals to buy more than two billion doses of Coronavirus vaccine in a scramble that could leave limited supplies in the coming year. For example, as the above Nature article indicates, publicly announced estimated capacity to 2021 of Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, is 2.94 billion. Interestingly Serum Institute of India (SII) signed an agreement to manufacture over I billion doses in 2021.

Whereas, another report of September 29, 2020, stated that SII will make available 200 million doses by 2021, at $3 dose to a group of at least 62 ‘low- and middle-income countries (LMIC)’ that includes India. This arrangement does not make clear how many of the 200 million doses will be made available in India. Curiously, SII reportedly, is also one of the global partners for the production of Britain’s Covid-19 vaccine on a large scale, once it gains regulatory approval.

Growing ‘vaccine nationalism’ needs to be prevented:

Thus, if one looks at the macro picture, a small group of rich nations, representing just 13 percent of the global population has bought 51 percent of the supply of leading Covid-19 vaccine contenders, according to the above Press Release of Oxfam International.

Many public health experts have expressed grave concern on such developments. They have also articulated in multiple forums that the world is not going to get rid of the pandemic until it gets rid of Covid-19 from everywhere. Terming this approach vaccine nationalism, the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) urged all concerned, at his August 18, 2020 briefing that this needs to be prevented by all, urgently.

No clarity yet, on whether the vaccine will be free for all Indians:

Although, there is no reported ‘vaccine nationalism’ in India, thus far, for understandable reasons, there isn’t any clarity, either, on whether Covid vaccines will be free for equitable access to all in India. As reported on October 27, 2020, Dr. V.K. Paul of NITI Aayog, who heads the Centre’s expert committee on vaccines confirmed this by saying:

“We’ll have more clarity in the weeks ahead when trial data from the ongoing trials (phase 3) of the Serum Institute of India (which is testing the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine) is available. The success of it and the other candidates will determine the availability and the dosage required and then we can discuss financing.”

Interestingly, free Covid vaccination for all in Bihar, has featured in ruling party’s the election manifestos, if they win the recent state assembly poll. This raises a doubt for the common man, whether or not this vaccination will be free to all in other states, as well, where such promises are not being made.

Ambiguity also on how much it will cost to the nation:

As on date, avoidable ambiguity prevails in many areas of Covid-19 vaccination process in India, for various reasons. For example, ‘Will India have Rs 80,000 crore for Covid-19 vaccine,’ asked the top vaccine maker in India, on September 27, 2020. Whereas, as reported on October 23, 2020, ‘the government has set aside about Rs 50,000 crore ($7 billion) to vaccinate Indian citizens.’

The same report also wrote, the Coronavirus vaccine, once available, will be distributed under a special Covid-19 immunization program. The Centre will procure the vaccine directly to make it available to the ‘priority groups’ free-of-charge through the existing network of states and districts. States have been asked not to chart separate pathways of procurement. This is expected to coveraround 25 Crore people by July next year, according to the Union Health Minister of India.

This also appeared in the Bloomberg/Quint article of October 17, 2020. It reported, India is identifying 300 million people who will receive the initial dose of a coronavirus vaccine. Priority will be given to workers in high-risk sectors such as police, health care, sanitation, elderly people and those with co-morbidities. The beneficiaries of vaccine in the first phase will receive an estimated 600 million doses and implementation plan aims to cover over 23 percent of the population.

Assuming that Rs. 50,000 Crore will be the vaccination cost for only 23 percent of the Indian population, what will it cost to nation to vaccinate 100 percent of the population against Covid? How will rest of Indians get access to Covid vaccination? Will the citizens be inoculated sans any out of expenditure for the same? If so, why free Covid vaccination has been promised only for Bihar, in the recent Assembly election, only in case the ruling party returns to power, as stated above?

Humongous logistics challenge for India:

Even if, India plans to administer Covid-19 vaccine to just 23 percent of the population, covering its high-risk population, across the country, in the first half of 202, it will involve 400-500 million doses. Will SII be able to deliver so many doses by June 2020? However, maintaining uninterrupted ‘cold chain’, in the entire logistics process – including local transportation and storage, wherever required, till these are administered to people, will be a humongous task for India.

While the required storage temperature of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is -20 degree Celsius, some of the most promising candidates, such as, Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccines need to be stored at as low as -80 degrees Celsius, till administered.

Covid vaccination cost is not just the cost of a vaccine:

To vaccinate 1.3 billion people of India, the Government needs to train in advance, a large number of health workers to accomplish the task. Alongside, the supply chain, including a demanding and uninterrupted countrywide ‘cold chain’ will also need to factor in other costs. These will include, availability of ancillary items like syringes, among others. The complexity of vaccine logistics further increases manifold, as 70 percent of the country’s population lives in rural India. Thus, the net outlay for Covid vaccination will be much more than a vaccine cost.

What happens, if these are not achieved with military precision, much before vaccine manufacturing commences? In that case, I reckon, it is quite likely that efficacious COVID -19 vaccines may not be made accessible even to 23 percent of the high-risk people, such as police, health care and sanitation staff, elderly people and those with serious co-morbidities.

Conclusion:

The economic, social and health care concern over Covid pandemic continues in India. As of November 01, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 8,184,082 of Coronavirus cases with 122,149 deaths. During this health crisis, among several other critical areas, India is also still learning – the hard way, how fragile is its public health care infrastructure. Covid pandemic has possibly caused the worst ever health care catastrophe in the country, due to years of negligence – that continues even today.

Besides above legacy issues, meager deployment of resources, low overall health awareness for Covid, inadequate number of health care personnel, insufficient Covid testing kits to detect the virus and prevent it from spreading, is still playing havoc. Moreover, many epidemiologists continue to suggest that India’s real infection rates are far higher.

In this setting, if, as and when subsequent Covid waves will strike, the number of cases is likely to grow exponentially – again. Thus, inoculating the entire population with Covid-19 vaccines is the most desirable way out, for India to prevent this health calamity from lingering too long. As Mark Feinberg, head of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative in New York City had said in the August 24, 2020 edition of Nature publication: “We’re not going to get rid of the pandemic until we get rid of it everywhere.”

Here comes the importance of equitable access to Covid vaccination for all in India. Although, a number of international organizations, including the W.H.O and Gavi, are working hard to reduce this threat, the concern over inequitable access to Covid vaccines, still remains a real one. Intriguingly, despite India being positioned as the world’s third largest Covid-19 vaccine producer, no one is still sure due to multiple reasons, whether all Indians will benefit from it – probably not even the Government of India.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

With Free Medicines In, Would The New Government Revisit ‘Universal Health Coverage’ Soon?

Posted on June 2, 2014 by Tapan Ray

Friday last, the new Union Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan reportedly announced that the his ministry would soon start work on distributing free medicines through public hospitals across the country.

For this purpose the Minister would soon call a meeting of the State Health Ministers to integrate this policy with the National Health Mission (NHM). The said meeting will be held under the framework of the Central Council of Health (CCH), which also includes professional experts.

A commendable beginning:

This decision of Dr. Harsh Vardhan would revive a plan that the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had promised in his Independence Day speech to the nation in 2012, but could not be implement due to paucity of adequate fund. Implemented effectively, the above scheme has the potential to significantly reduce the Out-of-Pocket (OoP) expenditure on healthcare in India.

According to a 2012 study of IMS Consulting, expenditure on medicines still constitute the highest component of OoP expenses in OP care, though its percentage share has decreased from 71 percent in 2004 to 63 percent in 2012. Similarly for IP care, the share of medicines in total OoP has also marginally decreased from 46 percent in 2004 to 43 percent in 2012.

However, it is worth noting that still 46 percent of patients seeking healthcare in public channels purchase medicines from private channels for non-availability. The new scheme hopefully would resolve this issue with sincerity, care and a sense of purpose.

For early success in this area, experts recommend that up and running Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan models of this scheme, which are most efficient and cost effective, should be replicated in rest of the states.

Recently announced drug procurement system through Central Medical Services Society (CMSS) after hard price negotiation with the manufacturers, and distribution of those drugs free of cost from the Government hospitals and health centers to the patients efficiently, could further add value to the process.

The cost and span:

Planning Commission estimated that a countrywide free generic drug program would cost Rs 28,560 Crore (roughly around US$ 5 Billion) during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The Centre will bear 75 percent of the cost while the states would provide the rest. Under the previous government plan, 348 drugs enlisted in the National List of Essential Medicines 2011 (NLEM 2011) were to be provided free at 160,000 sub-centers, 23,000 Primary Health Centers, 5,000 community health centers and 640 district hospitals.

“Universal Health Coverage” – Still remains the holistic approach:

That said, despite its immense importance, “distribution of free medicines” still remains just one of the key elements of Universal Health Coverage (UHC). It is expected that the new government would take a holistic view on the UHC agenda, sooner, to provide comprehensive healthcare services, including preventive care, to all citizens of the country.

According to another recent media report, the new Health Minister has already expressed a different viewpoint on this subject. Dr. Harsh Vardhan has reportedly said:

“I am not in favor of taxpayers’ money being used to push a one-size-fits-all health policy. From this morning itself, I have started contacting public health practitioners to know their minds on what should be the road ahead.”

Without deliberating much on the roll out of UHC as of now, the Minister promised that the government would work to provide ‘health insurance coverage for all’ through a National Insurance Policy for Health.

This statement is significant, because until recently, the ‘high level’ understanding was that the country, at least directionally, is in favor of public funded UHC, which was defined as follows:

“Ensuring equitable access for all Indian citizens, resident in any part of the country, regardless of income level, social status, gender, caste or religion, to affordable, accountable, appropriate health services of assured quality (promotive, preventive, curative and rehabilitative) as well as public health services addressing the wider determinants of health delivered to individuals and populations, with the government being the guarantor and enabler, although not necessarily the only provider, of health and related services”.

The groundwork started with ‘The HLEG Report‘ :

Just to recapitulate, in October 2010, the Planning Commission of India constituted a ‘High Level Expert Group (HLEG)’ on UHC under the chairmanship of Dr. Prof. K. Srinath Reddy, President of the ‘Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI)’. The group was mandated to develop a framework for providing easily accessible and affordable health care to all Indians.

HLEG in its submission had suggested that the entire scheme would be funded by the taxpayers’ money for specified sets of healthcare services and for additional services commensurate health insurance coverage may be purchased by the individuals. Accordingly, to ensure a modest beginning of the UHC, in the 12^th Five Year Plan Period, public expenditure on health was raised to 2.5 percent of the GDP.

UHC guarantees access to essential free health services for all:

Because of the uniqueness of India, HLEG proposed a hybrid system that draws on the lessons learnt from within India, as well as other developed and developing countries of the world.

The proposal underscored that UHC will ensure guaranteed access to essential health services for every citizen of India, including cashless in-patient and out-patient treatment for primary, secondary and tertiary care. All these services will be available to the patients absolutely free of any cost.

UHC provides options to patients:

Under the proposed UHC, all citizens of India would be free to choose between public sector facilities and ‘contracted-in’ private providers for healthcare services. It was envisaged that people would be free to supplement the free of cost healthcare services offered under UHC by opting to pay ‘out of pocket’ or going for private health insurance schemes.

What exactly is the new Health Minister mulling?

If the new Health Minister is mulling something different to provide similar healthcare coverage to Indians, let me now explore the other options adopted by various nations in this area.

As we know, UHC is a healthcare system where all citizens of a country are covered for the basic healthcare services. In many countries UHC may have different system types as follows:

Single Payer: The government provides insurance to all citizens.

Two-Tier: The government provides basic insurance coverage to citizens and allows purchase of additional voluntary insurance whenever a citizen wants to.

Insurance Mandate: The government mandates that insurance must be bought by all its citizens, like what happened in the USA in 2010 under ‘Obamacare’.

The Global scenario:

As per published reports, all 33 ‘developed nations’ (OECD countries) have UHC in place. America was the only exception, till President Barack Obama administration implemented its ‘path breaking’ healthcare reform policy in 2010 against tough political opposition.

India is already too late in providing UHC:

Based on an article titled, ‘ Analyzing our economy, government policy and society through the lens of cost-benefit’ published in ‘True Cost’, following is the list that states in which countries the UHC is currently in place and from when:

Country	Start Date of Universal Health Care	System Type

Norway	1912	Single Payer
New Zealand	1938	Two Tier
Japan	1938	Single Payer
Germany	1941	Insurance Mandate
Belgium	1945	Insurance Mandate
United Kingdom	1948	Single Payer
Kuwait	1950	Single Payer
Sweden	1955	Single Payer
Bahrain	1957	Single Payer
Brunei	1958	Single Payer
Canada	1966	Single Payer
Netherlands	1966	Two-Tier
Austria	1967	Insurance Mandate
United Arab Emirates	1971	Single Payer
Finland	1972	Single Payer
Slovenia	1972	Single Payer
Denmark	1973	Two-Tier
Luxembourg	1973	Insurance Mandate
France	1974	Two-Tier
Australia	1975	Two Tier
Ireland	1977	Two-Tier
Italy	1978	Single Payer
Portugal	1979	Single Payer
Cyprus	1980	Single Payer
Greece	1983	Insurance Mandate
Spain	1986	Single Payer
South Korea	1988	Insurance Mandate
Iceland	1990	Single Payer
Hong Kong	1993	Two-Tier
Singapore	1993	Two-Tier
Switzerland	1994	Insurance Mandate
Israel	1995	Two-Tier
United States	2010	Insurance Mandate

In-sync with the concept, probably with different means:

From the above statement of the new Health Minister, it appears that to provide healthcare coverage to all citizens of India, his ministry would work towards developing a National Health Insurance Policy. He also expressed that his ministry wants to focus on preventive healthcare.

Preventive healthcare being an integral part of UHC, it could well be that Dr. Harsh Vardhan wants to follow ‘Single Payer’ type of UHC system type.

Another school of thought:

However, another school of thought opines that a government owned efficient public healthcare system with adequate infrastructural facilities provides healthcare to patients almost free of cost as compared to the “insurance mandated” one.

This is mainly because, to address respective healthcare needs currently the patients have either or a mix of the following two choices:

Use public health facilities: Available virtually at free of cost if accessible, but quality is mostly questionable.

Use private health facilities: Virtually unregulated, much better services, though available mostly at high to very high cost.

Thus, these groups of experts believe that provision of universal health insurance for treatment at the expensive private facilities may not be cost effective even for the government, if these are not adequately regulated with appropriate stringent measures.

In absence of all those measures, the new Health Minister could consider taking a decision in favor of tax-funded UHC, with appropriate budgetary provisions and investments towards improving country’s healthcare infrastructure and its delivery mechanism for all.

Conclusion:

Be that as it may, there is not even an iota of doubt that India needs ‘Universal Health Coverage (UHC)’, like any OECD or other countries of the world for its citizens, sooner. Just distributing free medicines through public hospitals across the country for all, without a holistic approach such as UHC, may not yield desired results.

From the initial deliberations of Dr. Harsh Vardhan, it appears that UHC would soon not just be revisited, but receive a new thrust too, from the no-nonsense minister, probably leaning more towards private participation than with a public funded one, contrary to what was proposed by the HLEG.

Does it matter really? Well…

By: Tapan J. Ray

After Mollycoddling China Cracks Down on Pharma MNCs…But Why Now?

Posted on July 22, 2013 by Tapan Ray

In tandem with exemplary growth in the healthcare sector, China has started confronting with some consequential hazards in form of serious regulatory violations involving, besides many others, hospitals, pharmaceutical pricing and food and drug safety, which reportedly include contaminated milk powder and rat meat sold as mutton.

A recent report indicates, there are rampant kickbacks at various stages in the healthcare delivery process. For example, hospitals get kickbacks from drug and device companies, and hospital executives give a portion of these kickbacks to their doctors, involving even the pharma MNCs.

While looking back, in 1997, China took its first healthcare reform measures to mend the earlier not so good practices, when medical services used to be considered just as any other commercial product or services in the country. As a result, staggering healthcare expenses made Chinese medical services unaffordable and difficult to access for a vast majority of the local population.

In April 2009, China, a country with over 1.35 billion population, unfolded a blueprint of a new phase of healthcare reform to provide safe, effective, convenient and affordable healthcare services to all its citizens. An incremental budgetary allocation of US$ 124 billion was made for the next three years to achieve this objective.

The core principle of healthcare reform in China:

The core principle of the new phase of Chinese healthcare reform is to provide basic health care as a “public service” to all its citizens, where more government funding and supervision will play a critical role.

This reform process will ensure availability of basic systems of public health, medical services, medical insurance and medicine supply to the entire population of China. It was also announced that priority would be given to the development of grass-root level hospitals in smaller cities and rural China. The general population will be encouraged to use these facilities for better access to affordable healthcare services. However, public non-profit hospitals would continue to remain one of the important providers of medical services in the country.

Medical Insurance and access to affordable medicines:

Chinese government has planned to set up diversified medical insurance systems to provide basic medical coverage to over 90 percent of the country’s population. In tandem, the new healthcare reform measures will ensure better availability of affordable essential medicines at all public hospitals.

Highly lucrative healthcare business destination:

New Chinese healthcare reform process carries an inherent promise of a large additional spending worth billions of US dollars every year catapulting China as one of the most lucrative healthcare markets of the world.

China’s healthcare spending has reportedly been projected to grow from US$ 357 billion in 2011 to US$1 trillion in 2020.

Consequently, this huge investment has started attracting a large number of global companies of various types, sizes and nationality competing for the right size of their respective pies of profits.

In that process, as the media reports highlight, global pharmaceutical players started fast increasing both their top-line revenue and bottom-line profits from the booming Chinese healthcare market.

Pharma MNCs growing bigger, outpacing local industry:

Another report highlighted, “60% of China’s healthcare stimulus money ended up going to non-Chinese multinationals”. Quoting a recent JP Morgan report the article indicated AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Novo Nordisk, Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer realized over 30 percent growth from their China operations in the early part of 2011.

With the slow down of business in Europe and in the United States, even large global pharmaceutical players like, Bayer, Sanofi, Novartis, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and many more have reportedly invested huge resources for capacity building in sales and distribution channels, local manufacturing and R&D.

Chinese Government woke-up:

Kick starting the reform process and in the face of high level of corruption, Chinese government initiated monitoring the effective management and supervision of healthcare operations of not only the medical institutions, but also the health services, together with basic medical insurance system, in good earnest.

It has been reported, though the public hospitals will receive more government funding and be allowed to charge higher fees for quality treatment, they will not be allowed to make profits through expensive medicines and treatment, which has been a common practice in China.

Violations meted with harsh measures:

Accordingly, with increased vigil in many of these areas since last couple of years, Chinese regulators have started cracking down on the culprits, who are being meted out severe and harsh punishments, consequently.

In 2012, seven public hospital directors were reportedly sent to jails for accepting kickbacks. One corrupt drug regulator was even executed along with two food-company managers involved in a poisoned milk scandal, as the report mentions.

Pharma MNCs targeted for alleged corrupt practices:

As stated above, the new healthcare reform measures include regulation of prices of medicines and medical services, together with strengthening of supervision of health insurance providers, pharmaceutical companies and retailers.

China has now reportedly targeted Multinational Companies (MNCs) for allegedly corrupt practices, including price-fixing, quality issues and consumer rights. This has forced some MNCs to defend their reputations in China where global brands often have a valuable edge over local competitors in terms of public trust.

Recently, in an effort to reduce drug prices, China has initiated probes involving 60 drug manufacturers.

According to a recent report, to make the pricing system for medicines more effective, the regulatory agencies in China are investigating the costs and prices of drug manufacturers including global pharma majors like:

GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK)
Merck & Co.
Novartis AG
Baxter International Inc.

The regulators are expected to go through the details of 27 companies for costs and 33 companies for pricing, as per the July 2, 2013 statement posted on China’s National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) Evaluation Center of Drug Pricing.

The report highlights that a possible impetus for the NDRC to probe into pricing and costs of domestic and foreign drug companies was the announcement of China’s National Essential Drugs List in March, which increased the items on the list to 500 from 305.

Clampdown on government spending:

To exercise control on public expenditure towards drugs, the government has also reportedly clamped down on drug spending, placing some foreign drug makers’ products under price controls for the first time.

Since 2011, the Chinese Government has reduced the drug prices four times, including 15 percent reduction earlier in 2013, though the price reduction will be as much as 20 percent for the expensive drugs. At the same time, the government has reduced tax rebates on investments.

Mr. Chen Zhu, Health Minister of China has reportedly expressed that healthcare in China is still too expensive and there is still inadequate control over improper use of drugs in the country.

Another report indicates that Nestlé, Abbott Laboratories and Danone are under investigation in China for “monopolistic” pricing.

Crackdown on bribery and kickbacks:

An article in a similar context mentions that the “Chinese police started an investigation into the Chinese unit of the biggest pharmaceutical manufacturers of UK – GlaxoSmithKline and Senior executives at the unit are suspected of ‘economic crimes”.

On the same subject, a different news report also indicates, a senior Glaxo finance executive in Shanghai and employees in Beijing were detained as part of a corruption investigation.

Recently a Chinese Security Ministry official has reportedly said that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) executives in China have confessed to bribery and tax violations.

The same report quoting the ministry highlighted that the case against GSK involved a large number of staff and a huge sum of money over an extended period of time, with bribes offered to Chinese government officials, medical associations, hospitals and doctors to boost sales and prices. Concerned executives also used fake receipts in unspecified tax law violations.

Interestingly, earlier in 2012, Global CEO of GSK reportedly admitted that the company made “unacceptable” mistakes in “mismarketing” their antidepressants Paxil and Wellbutrin, which were the subject of a US$ 3 billion settlement with the Justice Department of the United States. At that time the CEO was reported to have said “very sorry” for the incident and “determined that this is never going to happen again.”

Another very recent news highlights that currently China is investigating at least four pharma MNCs as it widens its probe. Chinese enforcers had suggested that these pharma companies were using the same tactics to boost their businesses in the country.

It is now learnt that anti-trust body of China - State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) has also visited Shanghai office of UCB.

Happening elsewhere too:

Reports of similar alleged malpractices have started surfacing from elsewhere in the world too. For example, in Denmark, a country known for low incidence of corrupt practices, a Norwegian cardiologist was reportedly charged with taking 2 million kronor, or about US$ 350,000, from Merck and Pfizer, despite the fact, Danish law prohibits doctors from accepting money directly from the drug makers. The concerned doctor allegedly used the cash to buy expensive furniture and salmon-fishing holidays in his home country.

Last year, both the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States reportedly charged Pfizer and its subsidiary Wyeth for paying millions of dollars in bribes to officials, doctors and healthcare professionals in Bulgaria, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, Italy, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Serbia during 2001-2007 in violation of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. They had also set hefty fines on the two to settle the charges.

Conclusion:

To effectively address serious and longer term healthcare related issues of the country, the Chinese Government has already started implementing its new healthcare reform measures earnestly. Possibly to maintain equity, stay on course and uproot corrupt practices, they have now started cracking down on the violators in all seriousness, be they are from within the country or beyond its shores.

So far as the pharma MNCs are concerned, such harsh measures are being taken for alleged malpractices probably for the first time ever of this scale and that too with full media glare.

All these measures coupled with pricing pressure and gradual rise of local Chinese players, would make the Chinese market increasingly challenging to pharma MNCs.

Some global players have already started feeling the scorching heat of tough Chinese measures. But China is too powerful a country and too lucrative a market for any entity to flex its muscle to stall the current juggernaut, at least, till the ‘Dragon’ achieves its objective of bringing down public healthcare expenditure to its expectations…Or is there more to the problem than meets the eye?

Thus, the key question emerges:

Why has China, after mollycoddling the pharma MNCs for so many years, now started cracking down on them so hard?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Pharma Marketing in India: 10 Chain Events to Catalyze a Paradigm Shift

Posted on June 17, 2013 by Tapan Ray

In the matured markets of the world pharmaceutical marketing is quite different in many respect as compared to India. Besides doctors, different sets of customer groups like, healthcare providers, patient advocacy groups, pharmacy benefit managers, clinical assessment authorities play various critical roles for use and consumption of branded or generic pharmaceutical products and related healthcare services.

Quite in contrast, even today, individual doctors have continued to remain almost the sole target customers for the pharmaceutical players in India. This is mainly because, by and large, they are the only decision makers for usage of medicines and other healthcare facilities for most of the patients in the country.

Heralding a new paradigm:

As indicated above, though the current pharmaceutical marketing strategies continue to revolve mostly around the doctors, a distinct change, albeit slowly though, is now anticipated within the pharmaceutical marketing space in India.

Gradual emergence of healthcare providers with medical insurance and other related products, patient advocacy groups and standard treatment guidelines, just to name a few, are expected to facilitate heralding a new paradigm in the strategy dynamics of the Indian Pharmaceuticals Market (IPM) in the coming years. These changes will not be incremental in any way, but disruptive and radical in nature, as they will fully evolve.

This process of transformation, mainly driven by Government policy reform measures like, ‘Universal Health Coverage (UHC)’, ‘Free distribution of medicines’, mandatory prescriptions in generic names, could make the current pharmaceutical business strategy models of majority of companies irrelevant and obsolete, in not too distant future.

It is worth noting that the Government will spend around Rs.14,000 Crores (US$ 2.60 billion, approximately) from the year 2014 to 2017 just on medicine purchases at highly negotiated/discounted prices for free distribution to all through Government hospitals and dispensaries.

10 Chain events envisaged:  

In the evolving scenario, following chain events, taking place almost in tandem, in my view, will gradually usher in a new pharmaceutical marketing paradigm in India:

1. In addition to ‘Universal Health Coverage’, there will be a rapid increase in the number of other healthcare providers with innovative, tailor-made and value added schemes for various strata of the society.

2. This will trigger emergence of very powerful groups of negotiators for adopting treatment guidelines, pharmaceutical products usage and other healthcare related services.

3. These groups will have the wherewithal to strongly and significantly influence the doctors in their prescription and other treatment choices.

4. A significant proportion of the products that the pharmaceutical companies will market, a tough price negotiation with the healthcare providers/ medical insurance companies will be inevitable.

5. Consequently, doctors will no longer be the sole decision makers for prescribing drugs and also the way they will treat the common diseases.

6. Pharmaco-economics or Health Technology Assessment (HTA) or outcome based pricing will gradually play an important role in pricing a healthcare products. Drug Price Control Order (DPCO 2013) has already signaled to this direction for a class of products.

7. An integrated approach towards disease prevention will emerge as equally important as treating diseases.

8. A shift from just product marketing to marketing a bundle of value added comprehensive disease management processes along with the product would be the order of the day.

9. More regulatory control measures on pharmaceutical sales and marketing are expected to be put in place by the Government to prevent alleged widespread sales and marketing malpractices in the country.

10. Over the counter (OTC) medicines, especially those originated from natural products to treat common and less serious illnesses, will carve out a sizable share of the market, as appropriate regulations would be put in place, adequately supported by AYUSH. This will be fueled by overall increase in general health awareness of the population.

Trapped in an ‘Archaic Strategy Cocoon’:

Over a long period of time, Indian pharmaceutical industry seems to have trapped itself in a difficult to explain ‘Archaic Strategy Cocoon’. No holds bar sales promotion activities, with very little of marketing, continue to dominate the ball game of hitting the month-end numbers, even today.

It is high time to come out of this cocoon and confront the ‘writing on the wall’ upfront, if not try to hasten the process of the evolving changes, boldly and squarely. This will require a strategic long term vision to be implemented in an orderly way to effectively convert all these challenges into possible high growth business opportunities.

A differentiated composite value delivery system:

Moreover, in today’s post product patent regime in the country, product pipelines of the domestic Indian companies with new ‘copycat’ versions of patented products have almost dwindled into nothing, making price competition in the market place even more ‘cut throat’.

In such type of changing environment, all pharmaceutical companies will be under tremendous pressure to create and deliver additional, well differentiated and composite value offerings, beyond physical products, to attract more patients, doctors, healthcare providers and others, in and around related disease areas, for business excellence.

Thus, ability to create and effectively deliver well-differentiated composite value offerings, along with the physical products, will separate men from the boys in the high growth pharmaceutical market of India, in the long run.

This could also possibly create an ‘Alibaba Effect’ for the successful ones in search of pots of gold in the pharmaceutical space of India.

New leadership and managerial skill set requirements:

In the new environment, required skill sets for both the leaders and the managers of Indian pharmaceutical companies will be quite different from what they are today. This will not happen overnight though, but surely will unfold gradually.

New skills:

Leaders and managers with knowledge in just one functional area like, R&D, manufacturing, marketing, regulatory, finance are unlikely to be successful without a broad-based knowledge in the new paradigm. To really understand and handle new types and groups of customers, they will need to break the operational silos and be proficient in other key areas of business too.

These professionals will require ensuring:

• Multi-functional expertise by rotating right people across the key functional areas, as far as possible, even with a stretch.

• Ability to fathom and correctly interpret patients’ clinical benefits against cost incurred to achieve the targeted clinical outcomes, especially in areas of new products.

• Insight into the trend of thought pattern of healthcare providers and other customers or influencers groups.

• Speed in decision-making and delivery…more importantly ability to take ‘first time right’ decisions, which can make or mar an important initiative or a commercial deal.

IPM growing fast, can grow even faster:

India is now one of fastest growing emerging pharmaceutical markets of the world with 3rd global ranking in the volume of production and 13th in value terms. Domestic turnover of the industry is over US$ 13.1 billion in 2012 (IMS) representing around 1 percent of the global pharmaceutical industry turnover of US$ 956 billion (IMS 2011).

Since 1970, Indian pharmaceutical Industry has rapidly evolved from almost a non-entity to meeting around 20 percent of the global requirements of high quality and low cost generic medicines.

Financial reforms in the health insurance sector and more public investments (2.5% of the GDP) in the healthcare space during the 12th Five Year Plan Period will have significant catalytic effect to further boost the growth of the industry.

Stringent regulations and guidelines of the Government in various areas of pharmaceutical business in India are expected to be in place soon. Ability to ensure system-based rigid organizational compliance to those changing business demands in a sustainable way. will determine the degree of success for the pharma players in India.

One such area, out of many others, is the professional interaction of the Medical Representatives with the doctors and other customer groups.

Require a ‘National Regulatory Standard’ for Medical Representatives in India:

Medical Representatives (MRs) currently form the bedrock of business success, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India. The Job of MRs is a tough and high voltage one, laced with moments of both elation and frustration, while generating prescription demand for selected products in an assigned business territory.

Though educational qualifications, relevant product and disease knowledge, professional conduct and ethical standards vary widely among them, they are usually friendly, mostly wearing a smile even while working in an environment of long and flexible working hours.

There is a huge challenge in India to strike a right balance between the level and quality of sales pitch generated for a brand by the MRs, at times even without being armed with required scientific knowledge and following professional conduct/ ethical standards, while doing their job.

Straying from the right course:

A recent media report highlighted that ‘Indian subsidiary of a Swiss pharma major has run into trouble with some executives allegedly found to be inflating and presenting fabricated sales data for an anti-diabetic drug.’

The report also indicated that officials from mid-management ranks to sales representatives were allegedly involved in those unethical practices. The company has responded to this incidence by saying that the matter is still under investigation.

It is critical for the MRs not just to understand scientific details of the products, their mode of action in disease conditions, precautions and side effects, but also to have a thorough training on how to ‘walk the line’, in order to be fair to the job and be successful.

As MRs are not just salesmen, they must always be properly educated in their respective fields and given opportunities to constantly hone their knowledge and skills to remain competitive. The role of MRs is expected to remain important even in the changing scenario, though with additional specialized skill sets.

Unfortunately, India still does not have a ‘National Code of Conduct or Regulatory Standards’ applicable to the MRs.

Only the clause 4 of ‘The Magic Remedies (Objectionable Advertisement) Act, 1954’ deals with misleading advertisements. It is about time to formulate not only a ‘National Code on Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices’, but also a mandatory ‘Accreditation program’ and transparent qualifying criteria for the MRs for the entire pharmaceutical industry in India, just like many other countries of the world.

‘Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO)’ of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of the Government of India in its website lists the “Laws Pertaining to Manufacture and Sale of Drugs in India”. However, it does not specify any regulation for the MRs nor does it recommend any standard of qualification and training for them, which is so critical for all concerned.

There are currently no comprehensive national standards for educational qualification, knowledge, ethics and professional conduct for the MRs. In the absence of all these, it is difficult to fathom, whether they are receiving right and uniform inputs to appropriately interact with the medical profession and others in a manner that will benefit the patients and at the same remain within the boundary of professional ethics and conduct.

Thus, a ‘National Regulatory Standard’ for MRs, I reckon, is absolutely necessary in India… sooner the better.

Global pharmaceutical players:

Facing a huge patent cliff, global pharmaceutical companies are now fast gaining expertise in the ball game of generic pharmaceuticals, especially in the developing markets of the world.

In the emerging markets like India, where branded generic business dominates, global pharmaceutical players seem to be increasingly finding it lucrative enough for a sustainable all round business growth.

However, to outpace competition, they too will need to capture the changing dynamics of the market and strategize accordingly without moaning much about the business environment in the country.

On the other hand, if majority of Indian pharmaceutical companies, who are not yet used to handling such changes, are caught unaware of this evolving scenario, the tsunami of changes, as they will come, could spell a commercial disaster, endangering even very survival of their business.

Managing transition:

During ensuing phase of transition in India, pharmaceutical companies would require to:

• Clearly identify, acquire and continuously hone the new skill sets to effectively manage the evolving challenge of change.

• Get engaged, having clarity in the strategic content and intent, with the existing public/private healthcare providers and health insurance companies like, Mediclaim, ICICI Lombard, large corporate hospital chains, retail chain chemists and others, proactively.

• Drive the change, instead of waiting for the change to take place.

• Ensure that appropriate balance is maintained between different types of marketing strategies with innovative ways and means.

Conclusion:

It may not be easy for the local Indian players to adapt to the new paradigm sooner and compete with the global players on equal footing, even in the branded generic space, with strategies not innovative enough and lacking required cutting edges.

In my view, those Indian Pharmaceutical companies, who are already global players in their own rights and relatively well versed with the nuances of this new ball game in other markets, will have a significant competitive edge over most other domestic players.

If it happens, the global-local companies will offer a tough competition to the local-global players, especially, in the branded generic space with greater cost efficiency.

So far as other domestic players are concerned, the fast changing environment could throw a new challenge to many, accelerating the consolidation process further within the Indian pharmaceutical industry.

As the new paradigm will herald, catalyzed by the above 10 chain events, there will be a metamorphosis in the way pharmaceutical marketing is practiced in India. A well-differentiated composite value delivery system would then, in all probability, be the name of the winning game.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Government Ups the Ante for More Compulsory Licenses in India

Posted on January 21, 2013 by Tapan Ray

On January 12, 2013, one of the leading dailies of India first reported that in a move that is intended to benefit thousands of cancer patients, Indian Government has started the process of issuing Compulsory Licenses (CL) for three commonly used anti-cancer drugs:

- Trastuzumab (or Herceptin, used for breast cancer),

- Ixabepilone (used for chemotherapy)

- Dasatinib (used to treat leukemia).

For a month’s treatment drugs like, Trastuzumab, Ixabepilone and Dasatinib reportedly cost on an average of US$ 3,000 – 4,500 or Rs 1.64 – 2.45 lakh for each patient in India.

CL through a different route:

This time the government can reportedly notify its intent to grant CL under Section 92 of the Indian Patents Act 2005, only if any of the following three conditions are met:

- National emergency

- Cases of extreme urgency

- Public non-commercial use

After such Government notification in the gazette, any company interested in manufacturing any or all of these three products can directly apply for a CL to the Indian Patent Office (IPO).

This route is also expected to save usual litigation costs for the interested pharmaceutical players.

In such case, this will be the first time in India, when instead of pharmaceutical players applying for CL the Government on its own will trigger the CL process.

A situation like this will undoubtedly signal immense unpredictability in the IPR environment of the country.

Incongruent with the New Drug Policy 2012:

Interestingly, section 4(xv) of the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy 2012 (NPPP 2012) under ‘Patented Drugs’ states as follows:

“There is a separate Committee constituted by the Government order dated 1st February, 2007 for finalizing the pricing of Patented Drugs, and decisions on pricing of patented drugs would be taken based on the recommendations of the Committee.”

A media report also highlighted that an inter-ministerial group constituted for regulating prices of patented medicines in India has recommended using a per capita income-linked reference pricing mechanism for such products.

Thus, it is rather intriguing for many to fathom, why is the Government contemplating to grant CL on the above three anti-cancer drugs in January 2013, despite the decision of the Union Cabinet on the same in the new Drug Policy as recent as December, 2012.

Medicines come at the third stage of a medical treatment process:

For all patients, including the cancer victims, medicines will come at the earliest in the third stage of any treatment process, the first two or in some cases first three stages being:

A doctor’s intervention
Correct diagnosis through diagnostic processes
Surgical interventions (in some cases)

In India, there is no regulation to address the ‘cost issues’ of the first two or three stages of treatment, though there is a dire need to facilitate the entire process and not just one. Coming straight to cancer medicines considering these as the only ‘magic wands’ to improve access to treatment, may well be considered as ‘jumping the gun’ by the Government, if not an imprudent decision.

Skewed healthcare distribution in India:

Healthcare distribution in India is rather skewed and cancer treatment is no exception mainly because of the following reasons:

Medical personnel are concentrated in urban areas.
74 percent of doctors work in urban settlements, which is just around 1/4^th of the population.
61 percent of the medical colleges are in the 6 states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Pudicherry.
Whereas, just 11 percent of these are located in Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal and the north-eastern states
369,351 government beds are in urban areas and a mere 143,069 beds in the rural areas.
Rural “doctors to population” ratio is lower by 6 times as compared to urban areas.

(Source: KPMG Report 2011)

Huge healthcare Infrastructural Deficiencies:

In India, not just compared to the developed nations, even as compared BRIC countries, there is a huge infrastructural deficiencies as follows:

Indicators	Year	India	US	UK	Brazil	China
Hospital Bed Density(Per 10000 population)	2011	12	31	39	24	30
Doctor Density(Per 10000 population)	2011	6	27	21	17	14

(Source: WHO, World Health Statistics 2012)

0.6 doctors per 1000 population as against the global average of 1.23 suggests an evident manpower gap in the very first stage of a treatment process.
Number of beds available per 1000 people in India is only 1.2, which is less than half of the global average of 2.6.

Coming to Medical Colleges, the scenario is equally dismal, as follows:

Year	Number of Medical Colleges	Total Admissions
2011-2012	314	29,263
	No of dental Colleges	Total Admissions
2011-2012	289	2783

(Source: Medical Council of India & Dental Council of India)

Thus, India needs to open around 600 medical colleges (100 seats per college) and 1500 nursing colleges (60 seats per college) in order to meet the global average of doctors and nurses.

(Source: KPMG Report 2011)

Shortages in other healthcare professionals:

It has been reported that a deficit of 64 lakh (6.4 million) allied healthcare professionals India with highest gaps in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, is a stumbling block in providing basic and quality healthcare to Indian population, as follows:

Healthcare Professionals	Shortage
Anesthetists and technicians	850,000
Dental staff	2.04 Million
Ophthalmologists and optometrists	127, 000
Rehabilitation specialists	1.8 Million
Medical laboratory technicians	61,000
Radiographers	19,000
Audiology and speech language specialists	7,500
Medical staff	230,000

(Source: Times Of India, December 20, 2012)

Is the Government ‘missing the woods for the trees’?

In a scenario like this, it is rather impractical to envisage that routine grant of compulsory licenses by the Indian Patent Office will be able to resolve the critical issue of improving access to patented medicines on a long term basis.

Not many CL granted between 1995-2012:

Despite having the provisions of CL in the Patents Act of many countries, not many CLs have been granted across the world from 1995 to date for the obvious reasons.

The details are as follows:

Country	Medicine	CL granted in:
Israel	Hepatitis B Vaccine	October 1995
Italy	Imipenem (antibiotic)	June 2005
Italy	Sumatriptan Succinate (migraine)	February 2006
Canada	Oseltamivir (influenza)	July 2006
Brazil	Efavirenz (HIV/AIDS)	May 2007
Thailand	Erlotinib, Docetaxel (cancer)	January 2008
India	Sorafenib Tosylate (cancer)	March 2012

Source: DNA, March 9, 2012

An interesting paper:

However, I hasten to add that despite all these, the provision of CL in the Indian Patents Act 2005 has immense relevance, if invoked in the right kind of circumstances.

In the paper titled ‘TRIPS, Pharmaceutical Patents and Access to Essential Medicines: Seattle, Doha and Beyond’, published in ‘Chicago Journal for International Law, Vol. 3(1), Spring 2002’, the author argues, though the reasons for the lack of access to essential medicines are manifold, there are many instances where high prices of drugs deny access to needed treatments for many patients. Prohibitive drug prices, in those cases, were the outcome of monopoly due to strong intellectual property protection.

The author adds, “The attempts of Governments in developing countries to bring down the prices of patented medicines have come under heavy pressure from industrialized countries and the multinational pharmaceutical industry”.

Right pricing of patented drugs is critical:

While there is no single or only right way to arrive at the price of an IPR protected medicine, how much the pharmaceutical manufacturers will charge for such drugs still remains an important, yet complex and difficult issue to resolve, both locally and globally. Even in the developed nations, where an appropriate healthcare infrastructure is already in place, this issue comes up too often mainly during price negotiation for reimbursed drugs.

A paper titled, “Pharmaceutical Price Controls in OECD Countries”, published by the US Department of Commerce after examining the drug price regulatory systems of 11 OECD countries concluded that all of them enforce some form of price controls to limit spending on pharmaceuticals. The report also indicated that the reimbursement prices in these countries are often treated as de facto market price.

In India, the Government is already mulling to put in place a similar mechanism for patented medicines, as captured in the NPPP 2012.

Further, some OECD governments regularly cut prices of even those drugs, which are already in the market. The values of health outcomes and pharmacoeconomics analysis are gaining increasing importance for drug price negotiations/control by the healthcare regulators even in various developed markets of the world to ensure responsible pricing of IPR protected medicines.

An evolving global trend:

To address such pricing issues, global pharmaceutical majors, like GSK and Merck (MSD) have already started following the differential pricing model, based primarily on the size of GDP and income status of the people of the respective countries. This strategy includes India, as well.

Reference pricing model is yet another such example, where the pricing framework of a pharmaceutical product will be established against the price of a reference drug in reference countries.

An innovative approach to address patented products’ pricing:

To effectively address the challenge of pricing of patented medicines in India, Swiss drug major Roche, has reportedly entered into a ‘never-before’ technology transfer and manufacturing contract for biologics with a local Indian company – Emcure Pharma, for its two widely acclaimed Monoclonal Antibodies’ anti-cancer drugs – Herceptin and MabThera.

The report says that in the past, Emcure had signed licensing deals with US-based bio-pharmaceutical drug maker Gilead Life Sciences for Tenafovir and with Johnson and Johnson for Darunavir. Both are anti-HIV drugs.

In this regard, media reports further indicated that Roche would offer to Indian patients significantly cheaper, local branded versions of these two anti-cancer drugs by early this year. The same news item also quoted the Roche spokesperson from Basel, Switzerland commenting as follows:

“The scope is to enable access for a large majority of patients who currently pay out of pocket as well as to partner with the government to enable increased access to our products for people in need”.

Such ‘out of box’ strategies and initiatives by the global innovator companies could help keeping prices of patented products affordable to the Indian patients, improving their access significantly and making the likes of the current Government initiative on CL irrelevant.

Conclusion:

It is generally accepted that the provisions for CL in the Indian Patents Act 2005 has utmost relevance in terms of public health interest for all concerned.

However, keeping in view of recent policy announcement in the NPPP 2012, as approved by the Union Cabinet, on price negotiation for patented products, the reported Government move of invoking these provisions for three anti-cancer drugs is rather intriguing.

Moreover, even for the cancer patients, there seems to be a greater urgency to attend to basic healthcare infrastructural and delivery issues, besides providing Universal Health Coverage (UHC) as recommended by the High Level Experts Group (HLEG) constituted for this purpose by the Government.

Far encompassing critical decisions like grant of CL, I reckon, should be taken only after exhausting all other access improvement measures.

Thus, recent news reports on the possibility of further grant of three more CLs could make the pharmaceutical business environment for the innovator companies in India more uncertain.

Demonstrable predictability for an innovation friendly environment is critical for the economic growth of India, which the Government should not lose sight of. Just upping the ante for more CL of anti-cancer drugs will not necessarily help improving access to cancer treatments in India.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Maintaining Supply Chain Security in pharmaceuticals: The need is now more than ever before.

Posted on September 26, 2011 by Tapan Ray

In today’s globalized economy maintaining Supply Chain Security (SCS), especially in the pharmaceutical sector across the world, is more critical than ever before. We have many instances of SCS being seriously breached, not only in the emerging pharmaceutical markets but also in the developed markets of the world.

Global examples of serious SCS violations:

Following are some at random examples of serious SCS violations globally in the recent times:

In 2007, over 300 people died in Panama in Central America after consuming a cough medication containing diethylene glycol, which was labeled as glycerin. The adulterant diethylene glycol was sourced from China and was relabeled as glycerin by a middleman in Spain, as reported by the media.

In March 2008, the US FDA prompted by around 81 drug related deaths in the USA, announced a large scale recall of Heparin injection, a well-known blood thinner from Baxter Healthcare suspecting contamination of a raw material sourced from China. Standard technology used by Baxter could not detect the contaminant, which the regulator considered as a deliberate adulteration. The contaminant was eventually identified as an over sulfated derivative of chondroitin sulfate, which costs a fraction of original heparin derivative. The ‘Heparin tragedy’ raised, possibly for the first time, the need of working out an algorithm to put in place a robust system for ‘supply chain security’. This need has now become critical as many pharmaceutical players, including those in India, are increasingly outsourcing the API, other ingredients and almost entire logistics from third parties.

‘Business Standard’ dated August 24, 2011 reported that Ranbaxy Laboratories and the US health regulator are negotiating a settlement to lift a ban on the sale of the drugs produced at 2 of the company’s plants in India, which could involve payments and fines exceeding $1 billion. This ban, as the report says, dates back to 2008, when the US regulator banned 30 generic drugs produced by the company at its Dewas (Madhya Pradesh) and Paonta Sahib and Batamandi unit in Himachal Pradesh, citing gross violations of approved manufacturing norms.

‘Business Ethics’ – the Magazine of Corporate Responsibility reported, “GSK facility in Puerto Rico suffered from long standing problems of product mix-ups, which caused tablets of one drug type and strength to be commingled with tablets of another drug type and/or strength in the same bottle…the subsidiary’s manufacturing operations failed to ensure that Kytril, an anti-nausea medication, and Bactroban, a topical anti-infection ointment, were free of contamination from micro organisms.” As a result, the US Justice Department reportedly announced, “GlaxoSmithKline, PLC (GSK) and the subsidiary agreed to pay US$750 million to settle charges that between 2001 and 2005 they distributed adulterated drugs made at GSK’s now-closed manufacturing facility in Cidra, Puerto Rico”.

As reported by Reuter, on April 30, 2010 recalled over 43 children’s medicines involving 136 million units and 12 countries in response to complaints from regulators and customers. This recall included liquid versions of Tylenol, Tylenol Plus, Mortin, Zyrtec and Benadryl, as they “may not fully meet the required manufacturing specifications.”

Despite presence of one of the most stringent drug regulators, the issue bothers even the US:

In the wake of all these, ‘The New York Times’ dated August 15, 2011 reported, despite the fact that US now imports more than 80% of APIs and 40% of finished drugs mainly from India, China and elsewhere, the agency conducts far fewer foreign inspections as compared to domestic inspections. The US FDA Commissioner Margaret Ann Hamburg was quoted saying, “Supply chains for many generic drugs often contain dozens of middlemen and are highly susceptible to being infiltrated by falsified drugs.”

At another conference Ms. Hamburg said, “I think people have no idea in this country and around the world about the vulnerability of things that we count on every day and that we have a system that has big gaps in our protective mechanisms.”

FDA inspects only a fraction of foreign drug plants in the global outsourcing wave:

The investigative arm of US Congress, the Government Accountability Office reported, while US FDA inspected 40% of domestic manufacturing facilities in 2009, it inspected just 11% of the foreign manufacturing facilities, as the later outnumbered the domestic sites since 2008.

	INSPECTIONS BY FDA				ESTIMATED PLANTS IN FDA INVENTORY 2009
	2007	2008	2009	TOTAL	ESTIMATED PLANTS IN FDA INVENTORY 2009
India	64	64	59	187	502
China	19	36	52	107	920
Germany	26	34	36	96	228
Italy	28	28	30	86	168
Canada	20	19	35	74	310
U.K.	16	17	32	65	191
France	24	14	26	64	188
Japan	22	17	20	59	207
Switzerland	17	15	18	50	100
Ireland	14	11	19	44	63
All others	83	69	97	249	888
Total	333	324	424	1,081	3,765

NOTE: Most frequently inspected foreign countries. SOURCE: Government Accountability Office.

US FDA’s Counterfeit Drug Initiative:

The initiative includes the following measures:

Secure the product and packaging
Secure the movement of drugs through the supply chain
Secure business transactions
Ensure appropriate regulatory oversight and enforcement
Increase penalties
Heighten vigilance and awareness
International cooperation.

If such instances are available from the developed markets of the world, especially from the US, one can well imagine what is happening in the emerging markets of the world. In the developed markets, at least these are detected and rectifying measures are taken. Unfortunately, in the emerging markets scores of such criminal instances go undetected taking innocent lives of the patients.

Fast growing global outsourcing initiatives have increased the risks by manifold:

Thus even the US FDA acknowledged that fast growth of globalization in drug manufacturing has outstripped the agency’s resource pool for effectively inspecting all overseas outsourcing facilities.

As a result of the outsourcing wave in the US, the number of US FDA approved local drug manufacturing sites in the country is gradually coming down since 2008, with a commensurate increase in the number of foreign sites.

2000		2002		2004		2006		2008a*
Domestic	Foreign	Domestic	Foreign	Domestic	Foreign	Domestic	Foreign	Domestic	Foreign

2625	1150	2700	1500	2900	2000	3000	2500	2480	3800

NOTE: US FDA-registered drug-manufacturing sites with at least one product listed in FDA database. *a Preliminary estimates. SOURCE: US FDA

Stakeholders need to be extremely vigilant:

Pharmaceutical players and the drug regulators from across the world should put proper ‘fool proof’ systems in place to eliminate the growing menace of criminal adulteration of APIs, drug intermediates, excipients entering in the supply chain together with preventing any breach in their logistics support systems.

Regulators fail to keep pace with the fast growth of global generic industry:

Many feel a shift in prescription towards generic drugs, especially in the largest pharmaceutical market of the world – the US, is making the regulatory task of the FDA to inspect all drug ingredient suppliers indeed quite challenging.

Currently, 70% of all prescriptions in the US are contributed by the generic drugs, which indeed play an important role to contain the health care cost. However, as an innovative drug goes off patent a single manufacture’s product gets transferred to multiple manufacturers located across the world, making the task of the drug regulator to ensure high quality and safety standard of the same drug extremely challenging.

Conclusion:

SCS, therefore, deserves to be of prime importance for the pharmaceutical companies across the globe. Recent high profile SCS related cases, as mentioned above, have exposed the vulnerability in addressing this global menace effectively. All pharmaceutical players should realize that an integrated approach is of paramount importance to eliminate this crime syndicate, which is taking lives of millions of patients the world over.

It is worth repeating, securing pharmaceutical supply chain on a continuous basis is of critical importance for all the pharmaceutical players across the globe. However, the process will no doubt be expensive for any company, especially when counterfeiters find ways to bypass any such system very quickly.

Like other industries, in the pharmaceutical sector, as well, cost effective procurement is critical, which makes many pharmaceutical players, especially, in the generic industry not to go for such expensive process just to maintain the SCS.

Thus a strong corporate governance mechanism in all pharmaceutical companies must ensure, come what may, putting in place a robust SCS system is not compromised in any way… ever… for patients’ sake.

‘Jan Aushadhi’ – ‘Medicines for the common man’ project of DoP is a great idea – is it on course?

Posted on March 23, 2009 by Tapan Ray

In mid 2008 The Government of India created a new department, ‘The Department of Pharmaceuticals’ (DoP), under the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers. The new department came out with its following vision statement:“To enable Indian pharmaceuticals industry to play a leading role in the global market and to ensure abundant availability, at reasonable prices within the country, of good quality pharmaceuticals of mass consumption.”‘Jan Aushadhi’ – ‘Medicines for the common man’:

In this article, I shall submit my point of view on the second part of the above vision statement, which articulated the responsibility of the department to ensure availability of affordable modern medicine for ‘mass consumption’.

When over 70% of Indian population lives in rural areas, one can quite easily assume that such medicines will be available adequately in rural areas of the country, as well. Obviously the question that follows this admirable vision statement is how?

To respond to this question one will try to address the following two basic strategic issues:

1. Create a workable and viable business model, which can be gradually developed over a period
of time to deliver the promise

2. Create a robust supply chain network to ensure easy access of these medicines to the common
man, located even in remote rural areas.

The first part of the strategic issue has been well addressed by the DoP, within a very short period, by creating ‘Jan Aushadhi’, the medicines for the masses. Importantly, the second point, which will determine the success of the project, has not been clearly articulated.

The objectives of the ‘Jan Aushadhi’ were stated as follows:

1. To promote awareness for cost effective quality generic medicines. (However, how exactly this will be done, is yet to be known.)

2. To make available unbranded affordable quality generic medicines through private public partnership (PPP). (I support this objective from procurement perspective. However, so far as the delivery of these medicines to the common man is concerned, I would argue below:why do we reinvent the wheel?)

3. To encourage doctors in the Government Hospitals to prescribe such cost effective quality
generic medicines. (This is again just a statement of intent without considering the critical issue of its implementation in the predominantly branded generic market, like India.)

4. To help patients save significantly towards medicine cost with ‘Jan Aushadhi’ outlets.

5. A national help line is believed to be able to increase awareness level of this initiative.

The statements of intent of the DoP also highlight that the State Governments, NGOs and Charitable bodies will be encouraged to set up such generic medicine shops. It also states that the existing outlets of the Government and NGOs may also be used for this cause.

This particular decision of DoP, as I stated before, appears to be an attempt to ‘re-invent the wheel’, as it were. I shall argue on this subject, very shortly.

An open ended launch plan with inadequate market penetration compared to set objectives:

DoP announced that this scheme will be launched gradually in all the districts of India in four phases. However, for some unknown reasons, besides phase one and two, the other two phases of the launch plan have been kept by the department, as open ended as it could be, despite the Government of India’s having all wherewithals to implement this scheme with a reasonable degree of preciseness.

The four phases were decided as follows:

1. Phase 1: Amritsar Civil Hospital in November 8, 2008

2. Phase 2: Few stores in Delhi, National Capital Region (NCR), district hospitals in Mohali,
Ludhiana, Bhatinda and Jalandhar by February 28, 2009

3. Phase 3: Other districts of Punjab and some other states to be covered during 2009 and
2010

4. Phase 4: Remaining districts of the country by 2010 and 2012

I am not surprised that with such vague launch plan and an open ended timeline, the Government seems to have faltered in Phase 2 itself, when it could not go beyond Amritsar and Shastri Bhavan, Delhi outlets, by February, 28, 2009.

Arguing for the need of a course correction:

Despite being a hardcore optimist, I now get a vague feeling that the ‘Jan Aushadhi’ scheme of the DoP may not ultimately be able to achieve its cherished goals and may remain just as another good intention of the Government of India, if a course correction is not made at this stage.

The key barrier to improve access to affordable quality generic medicine to the common man, in this particular case, is not conceptualization of a project. We all know that our Government is reasonably good at it, with a good number of brilliant minds working to give a shape to it. The main weakness to translate this laudable idea into reality, in my view, falls well within the general weakness of the Government in visualizing the key barriers to the project and at the same time missing out on some of the key drivers for the same.

In this case, there seems to be some flaw in the ‘ideation’ stage of the project, as well. This flaw lies with the plan of its delivery mechanism involving state government, NGOs and various other bodies.

If procurement of cost effective quality generic medicines is not an issue, then the DoP should carefully look within the Government system to ensure easy access of such medicines to the common man.

Two grossly underutilized Government controlled ‘mass delivery systems’:

The Government of India has two very unique product distribution and delivery systems within the country with deep penetration from metro cities to even far off rural areas. These two Government owned supply and delivery chains are as follows:

1. Public Distribution System (PDS) for food grains and other essential commodities (Ration shops).

2. Indian Post Offices

Like food grains, medicines are also essential items. Why then DoP not collaborate with PDS to ensure easy access of such medicines to the common man?

Similarly, when postal department are collaborating with various other agencies to sell and distribute many types of products in rural areas, why not DoP consider this alternative, as well?

In fact, I would strongly recommend usage of both PDS and Post Offices by the DoP for deeper penetration of such medicines especially for the benefit of those 650 million people of India who do not have any access to affordable modern medicines.

I am aware, the question of ‘in-efficiency’ of these systems may be raised by many in India. However, at the end of the day who is responsible to make these systems efficient? People responsible for managing a system or process are usually held accountable for its ‘efficiency’ or ‘inefficiency’.

We have many excellent minds in the DoP, I hope, they may wish to explore the possibility of effectively utilizing these two already available state controlled mass distribution systems to ensure success of the project “Jan Ausadhi” – “Medicines for the common man”.

It is worth noting that this project seems to have already started limping with its vague execution plan and a delivery system, the scaling up of which to ensure access to one billion population of our country could be a serious question mark.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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‘Jan Aushadhi’ – ‘Medicines for the common man’ project of DoP is a great idea – is it on course?