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Come Covid-19 Drug And Vaccine, Pharma Will Get Back To The Traditional Mode

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‘Corona will remain a part of our lives for a long time. But at the same time, we cannot allow this to happen that our lives will be confined only around the corona. We would wear masks, follow two yards distance and pursue our goals. Therefore, the fourth phase of lockdown, lockdown 4, will be completely redesigned, with new rules,’ said the Prime Minster of India, during his televised address to the nation on May 12, 2020.

Many countries around the world, have already decided to move ahead, phasing out Covid-19 lockdowns cautiously, in a manner that each country will deem appropriate. Alongside, in line with many other industries, several pharmaceutical companies seem to have also started accepting this new reality. For example, Novartis, which reportedly, started digitizing its sales and marketing even before the COVID-19 pandemic, has hit the fast forward button.

This is evident from what Novartis said: “We were already on a journey in terms of our commercial model where digital and other channels and virtual detailing were becoming a bigger part of our mix.” The Company is planning an omnichannel digital launch for its latest new product – Tabrecta for metastatic lung cancer. This was prompted by the very sensitive situation that the world is going through ‘and the extra burden that’s put-on physicians and patients” as the pandemic continues - the company clarified.

This leads to the key question, are most companies on the same wavelength as Novartis, in this area? Or, a large majority of drug players, is still nurturing the hope that prescription demand generation activity from doctors and hospitals will soon return to the traditional mode of what was prevailing during pre-Covid-19 pandemic days? This flows from an age-old experience – a large number of sales or medical representatives have always spearheaded the demand generation mechanism for any patented or brand-generic medicine.

Still, for many it is difficult to even think of any quantum shift in this space, as the traditional core mechanism continues, despite so much hype of digitalizing pharma operations. Whereas, several others do feel, at least, a Covid-19 vaccine or a drug for its effective treatment, which, apparently, are almost knocking at the door, will bring the current situation back to the previous normal. Will vaccine or an effective drug be a panacea to win the war of Covid-19 pandemic, decisively? In this article, I shall dwell on this subject. To set the ball rolling, let us fathom whether or not coming out with a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine, in a jiffy, is rather a certainty.

Is Covid-19 vaccine a certainty?

No doubt, a large majority of people believe, a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 is perhaps the best hope for ending the pandemic, as Mayo Clinic has also said so. However, it also records the following major apprehensions or challenges in developing a COVID-19 vaccine, based on the research data:

  • Ensuring vaccine safety
  • Providing long-term protection
  • Protecting older people

On May 12, 2020, at the US Senate hearing about the path forward from pandemic lockdowns in the United States, NIAID director Anthony Fauci also said, there’s “no guarantee” any of the vaccines in testing will be effective, though based on his knowledge of other viruses, he is “cautiously optimistic.” Thus, projections about how COVID-19 will play out, are still mostly speculative.

Why ‘projections about how COVID-19 will play out are still speculative’?

A recent article – ‘How the COVID-19 Pandemic Could End,’ published in the ‘Scientific American,’ also commented so. It said, the end game will most likely involve a mix of everything that checked past pandemics:

  • Continued social-control measures to buy time,
  • New antiviral medications to ease symptoms,
  • And a vaccine.

Citing the famous example of the H1N1 influenza outbreak of 1918–1919, it said, doctors and public health officials had far fewer weapons than they do today. Thus, the effectiveness of control measures, such as school closures depended on how early and decisively, they were implemented. Over two years and three waves, the pandemic infected 500 million and killed between 50 million and 100 million. It ended only as natural infections conferred immunity on those who recovered.

Which is why, as on date the pursuit to achieve all three goals as mentioned above, would likely to continue. That said, a safe an effective Covid-19 vaccine will be the most preferred way to stop rapid transmission of the Coronavirus outbreak. However, this comes with a critical caveat.

Would the entire population need to be vaccinated?

Experts believe, unless a vaccine is administered to all of the world’s eight billion inhabitants who are not currently sick or recovered, COVID-19 is likely to become endemic. It will circulate and make people sick seasonally—sometimes very sick. But if the virus stays in the human population long enough, it will start to infect children, showing mild symptoms.

In that process, children appear less likely to develop severe disease if they get re-infected as adults.  Thus, the combination of vaccination and natural immunity will protect many of us. ‘The Coronavirus, like most viruses, will live on—but not as a planetary plague,’ the ‘Scientific American,’ article concluded.

Covid-19 end game to involve a mix of those that checked past pandemics:

Let us now look at the possible mix of the Covid-19 end game, which were involved in checking the past pandemics, one by one:

Continued social-control measures to buy time:

The social control measures would include compliance with the prescribed social distancing norms, in tandem with aggressive testing for the infected individuals, isolating them, and quarantining their contacts. These measures were well tested in the past epidemics and useful if followed well, by all.

Therefore, from the pharma industry perspective, getting back to the traditional ‘pre Covid-19 mode’ of prescription demand generation mechanism, will indeed be challenging for most drug players.

Availability of well-tested antiviral medications to ease Covid-19 symptoms:

So far, there is no scientifically and well-tested medications for the treatment of Covid-19. However, many different medications are under clinical trials in various parts of the world. So far, most hyped among them appears to be remdesivir, an experimental antiviral developed by Gilead for the treatment of Ebola.

However, the clinical study result of ‘Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19,’ published in The Lancet on April 29, 2020 found that the dose regimen of intravenous remdesivir used in the study, was adequately tolerated, but did not provide significant clinical or antiviral effects in seriously ill patients with COVID-19.

The World Health Organization (WHO) also, reportedly, announced a large global trial, called ‘Solidarity’, to find out whether any of those drugs can treat infections with the Covid-19. In India, several drug companies are also testing the water, with their shortlisted drugs, such as, Zydus Cadila want to test a form of interferon, usually used against hepatitis B and C, as a potential treatment for COVID-19. More trials on remdesivir are ongoing, let us keep our fingers crossed.

Interestingly, Gilead has, reportedly, signed nonexclusive licensing agreements with five Indian generic drug makers – Cipla, Mylan, Ferozsons Laboratories, Hetero Labs and Jubilant Lifesciences,  to produce COVID-19 therapy remdesivir for low- and lower-middle income countries. Under the agreements, Gilead will share its manufacturing know-how with them to help gear up remdesivir local production. Moreover, each of these companies will be allowed to set the price for its own generic version of the drug.

In any case, scientifically proven safety and efficacy of any drug or vaccine for the prevention or treatment of Covid-19, is yet to be known. Hence, for all individuals, strict compliance with social distancing measures is the only way to avoid this highly contagious infection. The same is also applicable to doctors and sales representatives while working in the field, at least, till an effective Covid-19 vaccine or drug comes.

Affordability and access to Covid-19 drug and vaccine:  

Assuming that a safe, effective and clinically proven vaccine or a drug for Covid-19 will be available sooner than what experts anticipate now, yet another critical issue needs to be resolved, soon. This is related to their affordability and access, to contain the mortality and morbidity of the disease, for a vast majority of the population, especially in the developing nations, like India.

Even Gavi noted: ‘In the race to produce a safe and effective vaccine against the COVID-19 virus, one of the many challenges will be the cost of developing the vaccine and eventually getting it to the vast number of people worldwide who will need it.’ However, it is generally anticipated that ‘COVID-19 vaccine or a drug may end up costing people a small fortune.’ Another article also echoed the same sentiment by saying, ‘Covid-19 treatments won’t work if people can’t afford them.

However, India’s Serum Institute based at Pune, has announced that it is ready for 20-40 million vaccine shots at Rs 1,000/dose, by September-October 2020. The company is ‘’putting its weight behind an Oxford University-led consortium, which announced the start of human clinical trials on April 23 and is one of the first such projects to get underway globally.’

At the same time, another report emphasized: “Even after India approves the Coronavirus vaccine, it might not be possible to produce more than 10-20 million doses in the first year,” again raising the availability and access issue for a Covid-19 vaccine, as and when available in India.

Conclusion:

As on May 17, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases continue to climb sharply to 90,927 with 2,872 deaths.. Moreover, on May 13, 2020, the world Health organization has also warned that “this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away.” Thus, the world has to live with it. By the way, the accuracy of many Covid-19 test kits has also been widely questioned. This reportedly includes speedy Abbott test, as well.

In this scenario, people may have to necessary live with social distancing norms and the practice of wearing a mask outside the home, always. Besides, the template for relief from Covid-19 becomes more complex, particularly considering availability, affordability and access to a safe and effective drug or vaccine in India, as and when these will come. Taking these together, the end game for Covid-19 in the foreseeable future, becomes anybody’s guess.

Coming back to the pharma industry, curiously, some people are still hoping for ‘business as usual’ in the traditional pre-Covid-19 mode, although the writing on the wall is increasingly getting clearer. The only alternative that people can possibly follow under the circumstances, is strict compliance to social distancing norms, which pharma companies, doctors, healthcare consumers and others would also require to adhere to, with as much earnest. Thus, envisaging a return to pre-Covid-19 prescription generation mode, may not be prudent choice, anymore.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

In a Quandary of Drug Quality, Price Control, Innovation and Patient Interest in India

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The patients in India have every reason to apprehend, whether the prescription drugs that they consume are efficacious, safe and conform to the government approved prices, alongside another important question: Do they affordable access to the fruits of innovation?

The regulator responsible for drug quality in India is responsible for ensuring the first two, and the drug price regulator of the country ensures the remaining two.

Apparently, both these esteemed government bodies, are sure that they are doing the best jobs in their respective areas. Moreover, in these days of social media blitzkrieg, it won’t be uncommon to witness some of them, creating hype on some issues that many feel is better avoided, and at times even contradictory in nature.

Amid this seemingly chaotic continuity of the same or a bit deteriorating scenario, patients are often caught in an unenviable footing.

In this article, I shall discuss on these concerns afresh, quoting a few recent examples. My objective is to encourage all concerned to move away from incessant hype creation by accepting the reality, as the patients feel. This is necessary, because anyone, including the regulators can fall victim of such unfettered developments, at any point of time.

Thus, it may be appropriate for all to jettison any residual arrogance or a faint shade of narcissism, before putting the nose to the grindstone to resolve these pressing issues decisively, for patients’ sake.

Are we consuming effective and safe medicines?

I raised this question first in an article titled, “Are We Taking Safe and Effective Medicines?” published in this blog on November 13, 2013. That deliberation was primarily based on US-FDA ‘import bans’ from various drug manufacturing facilities in India, involving even the top Indian pharma players. Based on their own quality and safety audits, the US regulator had concluded that drugs produced in those factories are not safe for consumption by the patients in America.

This apprehension has now almost reached its crescendo, when on February 24, 2017, probably for the first time ever, US-FDA publicly voiced its apprehension about the efficacy of medicines being sold and consumed by patients in India.  The observation came from the India director of the US-FDA in an annual conference of a large pharma trade association of some of the top domestic pharma companies. While commenting, “I do not think any one of us wants to take such drugs which lack efficacy”, the official reportedly revealed, he occasionally gets samples sent from the US embassy health unit in Delhi, and complaints are usually about the medicines not giving the desired results.

It is noteworthy, as earlier, rubbishing claims levelled by media expressing growing concern among overseas regulators over the quality of Indian made drugs, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) had reportedly strongly reiterated that there have been no lapse or compromise on quality parameters of the drugs manufactured throughout the country, as the efficacy of the drugs and safety of the patients have always remained the top priority of DCGI.

Yet another news article of August 22, 2016 reported that after a year-long survey involving Government, civil society and pharmacy professionals, and testing nearly 50,000 drug samples across the country during this period, the Ministry of health of India found that medicines produced in India are safe and effective. This study was kicked off in the wake of rising concerns that several medicines made in the country posed risks to patients, the report highlighted.

Should ‘Self-certification’ by industry prevail?

Intriguingly, when questions on drug quality manufactured in India, are regularly being raised by other equally responsible drug authorities, we find ‘self-certification’, in this regard, coming from all those who are expected to resolve this issue beyond an iota of doubt, always prevails.

Apparently, not just the drug regulator and the Union Ministry of Health are in a sustained denial mode, many large pharma companies also seem to be in the same mode. On March 01, 2017, the media reported, “Close on the heels of US FDA India office raising concerns over the quality of medicines marketed in India, pharma leaders came together to defend the quality of their products. There is no question of compromising quality of Indian products meant for domestic market and export, they pointed out.” This rebuttal was expected. Nevertheless, the apprehension lingers: Should such self-certification by pharma players prevail?

That said, one may try to justify this quandary by saying that effectively regulating over 20,000 domestic pharmaceutical companies, including third party and loan license manufacturers, poses a serious challenge to the DCGI and the State Drug Controllers. However, the moot point is, who has been encouraging such over-proliferation of drug manufacturing facilities over a long period of time, in any case? In that sense, whose prime responsibility is it to ensure that drugs consumed by patients in India are efficacious and safe?

The answer to these vexing questions continues to remain unanswered.

Did patients benefit from drug price control orders?

Let me first draw a brief sketch on the global perspective of price increases in generic drugs. It appears that in all those countries where there is no drug price control in place, the entire pharma industry is being adversely impacted by huge generic drug price inflation. This finding has been well captured in a study by Elsevier. It shows, between November 2013 and November 2014, out of its research sample of 4421 generic drug groups, there were price increases in 222 drug groups by 100 percent or more. In 17 drug groups price increases were taken even over 1000 percent, which include even tetracycline. With this trend sharply moving north, many patients, across the world, are struggling hard to find ways to survive in this situation. With this backdrop, I now get back to its India perspective.

I have read some media editorials questioning, just as the pharma industry, whether it is the right approach to make essential medicines affordable through drug price control in India? Nevertheless, there isn’t an iota of doubt in my mind that yes, it is, in the prevailing health care scenario of the country sans universal health care, with out of pocket expenses on medicines being the highest in the world and when market competition doesn’t bring down the price of medicines, for obvious reasons. My questions, on the contrary, will be, is drug price control being enforced in India the way it should? Are the patients getting commensurate benefits out of it? If not, why?

However, on the face of it, the answer to the question above “Did patients benefit from drug price control orders”, may appear to be an affirmative one. This is mainly because, on July 28, 2017, no less than the Union minister for Chemicals and Fertilizers, in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha reportedly conveyed that the Indian consumers have saved nearly Rs 5,000 crore due to the Government fixing the prices of essential medicines under the Drugs Price Control Order (DPCO) 2013.

The ground reality of drug price control:

Let me try to explore a bit in this area with some recent examples.

According to the data from India’s drug pricing watchdog – the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), compliance to various Drug Price Control Orders (DPCO) is far from satisfactory. Outstanding dues for non-compliance to notified ceiling prices, including penalty, from scores of pharma companies, have now reportedly piled up over the past two decades exceeding Rs. 4,551 crore (around USD 700 million). Thus, the same question haunts: Has drug price control benefitted the patients in India, as was intended to?

The situation is no different, even with DPCO 2013. On February 23, 2017, NPPA notified the ‘Suspected cases of Noncompliance of Ceiling Price by Pharmaceutical Companies,’ of 634 drugs, along with a ‘Public Notice’ for the same. This listed included the products marketed by some leading pharma companies in India, such as, Cipla, Abbott India, Alkem Labs, AstraZeneca, Dr Reddys Lab and Cadila, among many others.

Yet another fresh allegation related to drug pricing has just come to light. Interestingly, it relates to an anti-diabetic drug that falls outside DPCO 2013. On March 01, 2017, a news articled reported, “India’s drug regulator will look into allegations that four leading pharmaceutical companies are colluding to set the price of anti-diabetic drug Vildagliptin, a move that may rattle the almost Rs. 10,000 Crore (around USD 1540 million) market in the country.” Vildagliptin is a proprietary drug of Novartis, which has licensed it to three other companies. All of them sell Vildagliptin in India under their own brand names. Abbott sells it as Zomelis, USV as Jalra and Emcure as Vysov. The combined sales of these brands stood at Rs. 822 Crore (around USD 125 million) last year, the report states.

Be that as it may, the bottom line, as many believe, continues to remain unchanged, as it has always been – the patients don’t derive intended benefits due to lackluster and apparently ineffective enforcement of the drug price control in India.

Another crucial player:

Besides the two important and powerful Government authorities – DCGI and NPPA, there is another very critical player in this game – the Indian drug industry. Without whole-hearted cooperation and result-oriented action by all the three players, in tandem, nothing can possibly change this agonizing status quo, in this area.

The industry too is in a denial mode:

Quite like the other two critical constituents, who always deny any serious allegation on their actions, not being good enough to fetch the intended benefits for the patients, the drug industry too doesn’t seem to be any different. It always appears to be in a pre-programmed denial mode against all such allegations, irrespective of whether these are on drug quality, price, or on frequent misuse of the term innovation. They always try to justify their action, playing the victim card, as it were, and expecting other stakeholders to believe that they are doing right, always.

Let me now explore each of these areas separately, basically from the pharma industry perspective:

Drug quality: Pharma players, just as the Indian drug regulator, do not seem to accept that many drugs in India do not provide desirable benefits to patients, as alleged even by the US-FDA after studying some test results, following complaints from their local establishments. Many of us, at an individual level, may also have experienced just the same, and nurture the same doubt on the efficacy and safety profile of some branded generics that we consume, but have no wherewithal to prove the same. Doctors just change the brands, when any patient comes with such complaints, as Pharmacovigilance has not taken-off in the country with full steam, just yet. Thus, both the government regulators and the industry are in sync with each other, on this issue.

Drug price control: In this specific area, unlike the issue of drug quality, the respective stands of the government and the industry are poles apart. The former believes that it is working well, and the latter says, it isn’t.

The industry, as I see it, wants to project an impression that drug price control is the root cause of all evils, including compromises on drug quality, and some drugs going out of the market. The industry further highlights that drug price control offers a crippling blow to innovation, as they can’t garner enough financial resources through increased drug prices. It is another matter that they can’t possibly claim, drug price control offers a telling blow on their profit, as despite price control pharma is one of the highest profit making industry in India and globally too.

What innovation means to patients:

Interestingly, both the domestic and multinational pharma players often use the term of innovation, mostly construed as a façade, as it were, in their different advocacy initiatives, and during media outreach, as well. For global players, it primarily means innovation of new products, which offers monopolistic marketing and pricing advantage. Whereas, for generic players, it is generally process innovation, and different generic or biosimilar product development.

This is fine, but why should patients pay high drug prices, only because pharma players want to spend more on innovation, either for a new drug or a new process? I reckon, almost none will be willing to pay just for the heck of it.

Commensurate incremental price for incremental value:

Many patients, on the other hand, will be willing to pay more for any commensurate incremental value that a drug or a process will offer for a speedy recovery from illness, or to live a better quality of life, or for a lesser net treatment cost. Thus, the price of any brand is considered by stakeholders as a function of the value that it promises to offer. Consequently, brand marketing is deemed a value delivery system. For medicines, this value must be easily perceptible, quantifiable and scientific research based. Accordingly, the outcome of any such innovation should convince the regulators, doctors, hospitals and ultimately the patients – what value delivery – path breaking or incremental, for which patients need to pay commensurate incremental prices.

Various ways of ensuring it:

There are several different ways of addressing it, even for branded generics in India. For example, when branded generics of the same drug or similar FDCs of different drugs, are marketed by different companies with a huge price difference, the pharma players should necessarily submit before appropriate authorities, prior to marketing approval, all data regarding incremental and quantifiable value offerings, especially for those branded generics falling at the top of the price band. This is necessary, as an increasing number of brands in the market of the same generic molecules or the same FDCs, may not necessarily lead to greater competition with any significant impact on price. I shall argue on this point below.

What happens, generally:

For any drug falling outside price control in India, branded generic drug makers, usually set prices based on whatever each of them considers the market will accept. This consideration is highly elastic in nature, varying from a very low to a very high price, for any specific molecule and its FDCs. As I said before, it has been well-established by now that competition doesn’t play any significant role to bring down the branded generic drug prices, unlike many other consumables in different industries.

Why market competition doesn’t work for medicines?

This is primarily because, the purchasing decision for medicines does not depend on individual patients, unlike many other consumables. This decision is taken by the doctors while writing prescriptions for them. It is widely alleged, all over the world, that many important doctors are heavily influenced by the drug companies, often through dubious and highly cost intensive means, to prescribe their respective brands or branded generics in the process of treatment of a wide variety of medical conditions. In this rat race of generation of more and more prescriptions, pharma companies require to have a deep pocket to achieve their financial goals. Thus, many brands attract high prices to generate more profit and keep moving this vicious circle. Value based brand differentiation for many leading branded generics or even me-too patented products, aren’t mostly robust enough to stand any scientific or peer scrutiny. Consequently, the prescription demand of a most branded generics or me-too patented products do not have any linear relationship with the nature of market completion, and therefore, on their prices. In this perspective, setting a price for a pharma brand doesn’t depend on quantifiable value offerings for patients, as someone said before, “It is not a science. It is a feel.”

In conclusion:

The overall concern spans across several important public health and safety related issues, which also involve general quality standards of medicines, the effectiveness of drug price control, the core intent of so frequent use of the term ‘innovation’ in various pharma advocacy initiatives, including media outreach.

In this scenario, is the pharma industry, together with the drug quality and pricing watchdogs, failing to fathom the grave residual impact of continuity of this situation? In my view, this specific assumption appears too simplistic, naïve, and unrealistic. Or else, could it be that they are actually in a quandary, not being able to decide what would be the most effective actionable blueprint to resolve these issues?

I reckon, this is high time now for all concerned to accept the reality, seriously introspect on these critical issues, opt for a dip-stick expert analysis to assess the real status, and then work out a time-bound action plan with assigned accountability on the ground.

Together they may wish to address the following queries, among several others:

  • Why are they still running on a treadmill, as it were, over the last four decades, to come nearer these issues for better understanding, without moving an inch on the ground, despite public outcry?
  • Are they really in a quandary?
  • Are these concerns not an outcome of basically governance related failures?
  • Why hypes are being created all around on significant savings over out of pocket expenses on medicines because of ‘good enforcement’ of DPCOs, when it doesn’t seem so?
  • What prompts all the key players to be in a consistent denial mode on dubious drug quality standards in India, when foreign drug regulators are pointing it out in public?
  • Isn’t the term ‘innovation’ being rampantly misused, more as a major tool for advocacy to gain free pricing advantage?
  • Shouldn’t ‘Que Sera, Sera’ days change now?

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

How Cost-Effective Are New Cancer Drugs?

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The main reason why cancer is so serious a disease, is the ability of the malignant cells to spread in the body, both locally by moving into nearby normal tissue, and regionally to nearby lymph nodes, tissues, or organs, affecting even the distant parts of the body. When this happens, doctors term it as metastatic or stage IV (four) cancer.

Although most patients with metastatic tumors would eventually die of cancer, the treatment with various types of anticancer drugs, could help prolong life, in varying degree. No wonder, many new anticancer drugs now obtain regulatory approval based on their effectiveness on metastatic cancer patients. Consequently, it has now become almost a routine to administer newer anticancer drugs to patients with early stage of disease, after they have undergone surgery or radiotherapy.

But, these lifesaving drugs are expensive – very expensive! For example, a newer anticancer treatment is often priced at US$ 100,000 or more per patient, which, obviously, a large majority of the population can’t just afford.

Are these new drugs cost-effective?

To put in simple words, cost effectiveness of a drug is generally ‘expressed in terms of a ratio where the denominator is a gain in health from a measure (years of life, premature births averted, sight-years gained) and the numerator is the cost associated with the health gain.’

From this perspective, a January 2015 research study titled, “Pricing In The Market For Anticancer Drugs”, published by the National Bureau Of Economic Research of the United States observed that anticancer drugs like bevacizumab (US$ 50,000 per treatment episode) and ipilimumab (US$120,000 per episode) have fueled the perception that the launch prices of anticancer drugs are fast increasing over time.

To evaluate the pricing trend of these drugs, the researchers used an original dataset of 58 anticancer drugs, approved between 1995 and 2013, and found that launch-prices, adjusted for inflation and drugs’ survival benefits, increased by 10 percent, or about US$ 8,500, per year. This study was restricted to drugs administered with the primary intent of extending survival time for cancer patients and drugs for which survival benefits have been estimated in trials or modeling studies. The researchers did not consider drugs administered to treat pain or drugs that are administered to alleviate the side effects of cancer treatments.

The paper concluded, as compared to the older ones, newer anticancer treatments, generally, are less cost-effective. Despite this fact, the prices of these drugs are rising faster than their overall effectiveness.

How much do these drugs cost to prolong a year of life for cancer patients?

Another paper, titled “Cancer Drugs Aren’t As Cost-Effective As They Used To Be”, published in the Forbes magazine on September 30, 2015, expressed serious concern on the declining cost-effectiveness of new anticancer drugs. The author termed this trend as unacceptable, and more disturbing when providing just a year of life to cancer patients costs around US$ 350,000 to even US$ 800,000. High prices should reflect large benefits, and we need to demand value out of medical interventions – he recommended.

Do the claims of efficacy also reflect the real-world effectiveness?

Providing an answer to this question, a very recent article titled, “Assessment of Overall Survival, Quality of Life, and Safety Benefits Associated With New Cancer Medicines”, published in the well reputed medical journal ‘JAMA Oncology’ on December 29, 2016, concluded as follows:

“Although innovation in the oncology drug market has contributed to improvements in therapy, the magnitude and dimension of clinical benefits vary widely, and there may be reasons to doubt that claims of efficacy reflect real-world effectiveness exactly.”

As stated above, this conclusion was drawn by the researchers after a detail study on the overall survival, quality of life, and safety benefits of recently licensed cancer medicines, as there was a dearth of evidence on the impact of newly licensed cancer medicines.

The authors analyzed in detail health technology assessment reports of 62 cancer drugs approved in the United States and Europe between 2003 and 2013, and found that these were associated with increased overall survival by an average of 3.43 months between 2003 and 2013. Following is a summary of the detail findings:

  • 43 percent increased overall survival by 3 months or longer
  • 11 percent by less than 3 months
  • 30 percent was not associated with any increase in overall survival, which means almost one third of these drugs lacked evidence to suggest their increased survival rate when compared to alternative treatments
  • Most new cancer drugs, though improved quality of life, were associated with reduced patient safety

The researchers expect this study to support clinical practice, and promote value-based decision-making in the cancer drug treatment, besides assessing their cost-effectiveness.

Some overseas Cancer Institutes protested:

In 2012, doctors at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center reportedly announced through ‘The New York Times’ that their hospital would not be using Zaltrap, a newly patented colorectal cancer drug at that time, from Sanofi. This action of the Sloan-Kettering doctors compelled Sanofi to cut the price of Zaltrap by half.

Unlike India, where prices of even cancer drugs do not seem to be a great issue with the medical profession, just yet, the top cancer specialists of the American Society of Clinical Oncology are reportedly working out a framework for rating and selecting cancer drugs not only for their benefits and side effects, but prices as well.

In a 2015 paper, a group of cancer specialists from Mayo Clinic also articulated, that the oft-repeated arguments of price controls stifle innovation are not good enough to justify unusually high prices of these drugs. Their solution for this problem includes value-based pricing and NICE like body of the United Kingdom.

This Interesting Video from Mayo Clinic justifies the argument.

Was it a tongue-in-cheek action from India?

On March 9, 2012, India did send a signal to global pharma players on its apparent unhappiness of astronomical pricing of patented new cancer drugs in the country. The then Indian Patent Controller General, on that day, issued the first ever Compulsory License (CL) to a domestic drug manufacturer Natco, allowing it to sell a generic equivalent of a kidney cancer treatment drug from Bayer – Nexavar, at a small fraction of the originator’s price.

However, nothing has changed significantly since then on the ground for cancer drugs in the country. Hence, many construe the above action of the Government no more than mere tokenism.

In this context, it won’t be out of place recapitulating an article, published in a global business magazine on December 5, 2013 that quoted Marijn Dekkers, the then CEO of Bayer AG as follows:

“Bayer didn’t develop its cancer drug, Nexavar (sorafenib) for India, but for Western Patients that can afford it.”

Whether, CL is the right approach to resolve allegedly ‘profiteering mindset’ at the cost of human lives, is a different subject of discussion.

VBP concept is gaining ground: 

The concept of ‘Value-Based Pricing (VBP)’, has started gaining ground in the developed markets of the world, prompting the pharmaceutical companies generate requisite ‘health outcome’ data using similar or equivalent products.

Cost of incremental value that a product delivers over the existing ones, is of key significance, and should always be the order of the day. Some independent organizations such as, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in the UK have taken a leading role in this area.

Intriguingly, in India, public health related issues, however pressing these are, still do not seem to arrest much attention of the government to provide significant relief to a large majority of population in the country.

Conclusion:

Warren Buffet – the financial investor of global repute once said, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” Unfortunately, this dictum is not applicable to the consumers of high priced life-saving drugs, such as, for cancer.

Prices of new drugs for the treatment of life-threatening ailments, such as cancer, are increasingly becoming unsustainable, across the world, and more in India. As articulated by the American Society of Clinical Oncology in 2014, this is mainly because their prices are disconnected from the actual therapeutic value of products.

Currently, a sizable number of poor and even middle-income patients, who spend their entire life’s saving for treatment of a disease like cancer, have been virtually priced out of the patented new cancer drugs market.

The plight of such patients is worse in India, and would continue to be so, especially when no trace of Universal Health Care/Coverage (UHC) is currently visible anywhere near the healthcare horizon of the country.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma Sales Communication: Would ‘Cafeteria Approach’ Be More Productive Today?

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For sales communication, quality of access of pharma Medical Representatives (MRs) to many important and busy doctors has been steadily declining over the past several years, all over the world, and India is no exception.

This is mainly because the number of patients coming to these busy practitioners is fast increasing and the doctors are trying to see all these patients within the same limited time that was available to them in even earlier days. In tandem, their other obligations of various kinds, personal or otherwise, are also overcrowding the same highly squeezed time space.

In a situation like this, increasing number of MRs, which has almost doubled in the past decade, is now fiercely competing with each other to get a share of lesser and lesser available time of the busy doctors.

Added to this, a gross mismatch between the inflow of doctors with similar prescription potential and ever increasing inflow of patients, is making the situation even worse.

According to a study done by CMI Communication Media Research, about half of physicians restrict visits from MRs in one-way or another.

Thus the critical question that needs to be answered now, from purely pharma sales and marketing perspective is:

How to make sales communication effective to such busy medical practitioners in this extremely challenging scenario?

Pharma players are trying to respond:

This pressing issue has prompted many pharma companies, across the globe, to reevaluate their traditional sales communication models, which are becoming increasingly expensive as a result of diminishing commensurate returns from the MR calls.

Some drug companies have also introduced interesting digital interventions, though within the same traditional pharma sales communication process, to add speed and novelty, especially in sales administration and its execution processes.

Experimentations are visible even in India:

In India too, pharma companies are trying with several different approaches, in various combinations to make the prescription generation process through sales communication more productive.

Some pharma players also tried to push up the overall sales productivity through additional rural market coverage. In this regard, a 2012 report of ‘IMS Consulting’ states, acknowledging the seriousness around rural consumers, many drug companies in India are now expanding their sales operation to Tier IV cities and below. Quite a few of them even succeeded in their endeavor to create profitable business models around the hinterland and rural geographies.

These pharma players believe that extra-urban geographies require different approaches, though with the same traditional sales communication models. These approaches include, different product portfolio, distribution-mix, pricing/packaging and promotional tools, considering majority of the doctors are not as busy as their counterparts in the metro cities and large towns.

Initial strategic changes:

The above ‘IMS Consulting’ paper also highlights a few of the initial changes in the following lines:

  • Business Unit Structure (SBU): To bring more accountability, manage evolving business needs and use equity of organization for reaching to the middle of the accessible pyramid.
  • Therapy Focus Promotion: Generally seen where a portfolio is specialized, therapy focused, and scripts are driven through chosen few doctors; generally in chronic segment.
  • Channel Management: Mostly adopted in OTC /OTX business; mature products with wider portfolio width.
  • Hospital Task Force: Exclusively to manage hospital business.
  • Specialty Driven Sales Model: Applicable in scenarios where portfolio is built around 2 or 3 specialties.
  • Task Force: Generally adopted for niche products in urban areas, such as fertility clinics or for new launches where the focus is on select top rung physicians only.
  • Out-Sourced Sales Force: Generally used for expansion in extra-urban geographies or with companies for whom medico marketing is secondary (such as OTC or Consumer Healthcare companies).

Pharma MNCs took greater strides:

In addition, to increase sales revenue further, many innovator pharma MNCs engaged themselves in co-promotion of their patented products, besides out-licensing. A few of them pushed further ahead by adopting newer innovative promotional models like Patient Activation Teams, Therapy Specialists, or creating patient awareness through mass media.

Brand value augmentation offering a mix of tangibles and intangibles:

Realizing quickly that patients are increasingly becoming strong stakeholders in the business, some of the pharma MNCs also started engaging the customers by extending disease management services to patients administering their products.

This is indeed a clever way of augmenting the brand perception, through a mix of well-differentiated tangible and intangible product related value offerings.

These pharma MNCs engage even the patients by providing a basket of services at their home. Typical services include:

  • Counseling
  • Starter kits
  • Diagnostic tests
  • Medical insurance
  • Personalized visits
  • Exercising equipment
  • Emergency help
  • Physiotherapy sessions
  • Call centers for chronic disease management

Related doctors are reported about the status of the patients and the patients do not require paying anything extra for availing these services from the MNC pharma companies.

Despite all these, declining productivity of the traditional pharma sales communication models continue, predominantly from the extremely busy and very high value medical practitioners/experts/specialists, as mentioned above.

Communication preferences of busy doctors need to be factored-in:

From the above facts, it appears that pharma sales communication is usually tailored to focus on customer/market types and characteristics, rather than emerging unique customer preferences towards medium of sales communication and also differentiated message requirements for specific brands.

Should status quo be maintained?

Probably not, as many still believe that MR’s quality of access to doctors for productive sales communication would continue to remain a critical issue and become increasingly complex.

Even in this changing scenario, pharma companies, by and large, have kept the basic communication medium and traditional process of messaging unchanged, except some digital tweaking here or there. Some of these innovative means and user-friendly digital interfaces, at times, may attract quality attention to sales communication for top of mind brand recall by the doctors.

Is it enough? Again, probably not, as there is an urgent need to exploring various other medium and new ways of delivering strong and effective tailor-made brand messages, based on hard data of painstaking research.

e-marketing started taking roots, though in bits and pieces:

In 2013, facing this challenge of change, Pfizer reportedly started using digital drug representatives to market medicines, leaving the decision in doctors’ hands as to whether they would want to see them.

Prior to that, in 2011, a paper published in the WSJ titled, “Drug Makers Replace Reps With Digital Tools” stated that pharmaceutical companies in the United States are downsizing their sales force with increasing usage of iPad applications and other digital tools for interacting with doctors.

Lot many other fascinating experimentations with pharma e-marketing have now commenced in several places of the world, many with considerable initial success.

However, most of these efforts seem to be swinging from one end of ‘face-to-face’ sales communication with doctors, to the other end of ‘cyber space driven’ need-based product value sharing with customers through digital toolkits.

Two key questions:

All these experimentations and developments with various pharma sales communication models would probably prompt the following two key questions:

  • Whether or not traditional sales approach would continue to be as relevant as opposed to digitally customized sales applications?
  • Whether or not MRs would continue to remain as relevant in all areas of pharma prescription generation process, in the years ahead?

Not an ‘Either/Or’ situation:

According to AffinityMonitor™ 2014 Research Report, pharmaceutical and biotech companies have today at their disposal more than a dozen of promotional channels to include in their strategy, including traditional methods, like detailing and speaker programs, and digital ones, including email, microsites and videos.

The report states, every doctor engages with these channels in his or her own unique manner. Some physicians want to interact with MRs; others restrict MR details and instead get information from their peers. One doctor might regularly use a mobile application for product information, often during a patient consultation. Conversely, another physician, who might work in the same practice, would rarely wish to surf the Web for information. And some doctors simply won’t engage with any sales communication no matter what the channels are.

Thus, ‘one size fits all’ type of sales communication, delivered even by the best of MRs, is not likely to be productive in the changing macro environment.

Many facets of communication preferences:

Today, there are many facets of doctors’ choices and preferences to brand value communication medium.

As AffinityMonitor 2014 Research Report states, based on the availability of time and interest, each doctor engages with these channels in his or her own unique manner. For example, some doctors may want to interact with the MRs, while some others may restrict MR’s product details. A few others may prefer getting information from their peers, instead

Since doctors’ engagement with pharma brands is critical for the drug companies, it has now become absolutely imperative for them to know individual affinities of the doctors in this regard, or what channels and processes each physician would typically prefer to get engaged with a brand, directly or indirectly.

Pharma companies should, therefore, gather this particular information doctor-wise, to customize both the medium and the message for effective brand value communication, accordingly.

A shift to ‘Cafeteria Approach’:

Taking all the above research inputs into consideration, it appears, when many busy physicians’ doors appear closed to traditional pharma sales communication, drug companies should have the keys to unlock them with ‘Cafeteria Approach’ of sales communication, purely based on customer research. This approach would offer the ‘difficult to meet doctors’ a variety of choices regarding both the medium and also the message, that would best suit their temperaments, needs, time and interests, as discussed above.

It is important to repeat, to ensure productive outcome of the ‘Cafeteria Approach’, customized sales communication strategy for each important and otherwise busy doctor should purely be based on contemporary customer research.

Sales force remains the top channel out of several others:

According to AffinityMonitor Research Study, though MR’s quality access to busy doctors has declined steadily over the past decade, the sales force still remains the top channel for physician engagement, closely followed by ‘Digital’ ones.

Overall, around 47 percent of all Health-Care Providers (HCPs) consider ‘face-to-face’ promotion as one of the top three channels, which includes about 80,000 physicians, who favor the sales force as their second or third-strongest channel.

Of the 514,000 HCPs examined in AffinityMonitor Research Study, 162,000 show the strong affinity for ‘face-to-face’ promotion, 118,000 for digital push and 65,000 for digital pull or personal remote channels.

Increasing just ‘Sales Force Effectiveness’ not enough:

Thus, generally speaking, even the best of global sales force excellence programs could at best increase the MR productivity primarily for these 47 percent of doctors.

Brand sales communication reach and effectiveness to a large number of rests of the doctors would, therefore, call for innovative thinking and willingness to chart the uncharted frontiers.

Conclusion:

The decline in pharmaceutical MR’s quality of access to physicians for sales communication is now well documented. For example, in 2008, 23 percent of US doctors had restrictions on MRs, but that number rose to 49 percent in 2014, according to AffinityMonitor Research Study.

Therefore, the knowledge of whether a doctor would like to engage with traditional sales communication method by seeing a MR, or would just prefer to get his/her required information through any digital medium, is critical for success in the new ball game of generating increasing number prescriptions for any pharma brand.

Majority of the doctors’ choices would, in all probability, involve MRs, while a notable number of other choices may probably be independent of MRs.

In any case, that’s not going to be the main issue, as MRs are not going to disappear – not in any foreseeable future and would continue to remain a critical part of the overall pharmaceutical selling process, all over the world.

However, closely following the emerging trend, I reckon, ‘Cafeteria Approach’ is worth considering for effective customized brand communication, ensuring productive sales outcome.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Are We Taking Safe and Effective Medicines?

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The above headline is in no way intended to mean that this discussion is on spurious or counterfeit drugs.

Today’s deliberation is on the licensed drugs, which are manufactured in India, for the patients of the country, by the manufacturers holding valid drug licenses from the Indian regulators.

Close on the heels of my article titled, “USFDA ‘Import Bans’: The Malady Calls For Strong Bitter Pills “, another equally serious incident related to drug safety, came to the fore.

Fabricated data from the Contract Manufacturer of large companies:

On November 12, 2013, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) was quoted saying that the investigative team of the drug regulator concluded that all the data submitted by Puducherry-based contract drug manufacturer GuruFcure, while seeking approval for manufacturing seven fixed dose combination drugs, are ‘fabricated’ and not ‘authentic’.

GuruFcure, which started operations in 2007 and calls itself “one of the leading pharmaceutical formulation manufacturers in India”, reportedly manufacture drugs for the leading pharma MNC and Indian companies and Indian companies such as:

  • Abbott
  • Alkem
  • Glenmark
  • Wockhardt
  • Unichem
  • Intas Pharma, among others.

Though, as per media report, Wockhardt and Glenmark said that these two companies are not currently associated with GuruFcure, the fact remains that they did market drugs produced by this contract manufacture in the past and the patients consumed those drugs against doctors’ precriptions.

 Large players need to set examples:

The largest pharmaceutical company in India with highest share of the Indian Pharmaceutical Market – Abbott, has also been reported to get some of their drugs manufactured by this contract manufacturer.

 Not a solitary example:

Just prior to this incident, in November 8, 2013, the DCGI reportedly ordered the Indian pharma major Sun Pharmaceuticals to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, after discovering that the company does not have the requisite approval from the central government for operating the laboratory. The DCGI has decided not to accept future applications and will not process existing new drug filings that Sun Pharma has made from the Mumbai laboratory until the company gets an approval.

Tardy regulatory system fuels apprehensions:

In India, many large, medium and small units get their products from the contract drug manufacturers. As compared to the USFDA inspection data, there are virtually no public data available on the details of inspections carried out at these plants by the drug regulators indicating the level of cGMP compliance.

Health being a state subject in India, State Drug Controllers should play a critical role in ensuring drug safety for patients through regular inspection of these manufacturing facilities on cGMP compliance.

Conclusion:

If cGMP violations can take place for drug exports, despite rigorous compliance checks by the foreign drug regulators, what could possibly happen when the same system is so tardy in India?

While the MNCs boast on their highest drug regulatory compliance standards, even for contract manufacturers, why do they keep relationships with those getting caught for fraudulent practices, is equally difficult to fathom.

One may possibly describe such incidents as just aberrations. However, that conclusion can only be drawn, when we have Drug Controllers’ cGMP inspection data for a large number of drug manufacturing units in India with details. Unfortunately, that is not the case, in any way.

In such an environment in India, the moot question that comes at the top of mind, “Are we taking safe and effective drugs, whenever required?”

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

In VUCA World: Changing Dynamics of Prescription Generation Process

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The acronym VUCA is often being used to emphasize upon the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity in various situations. The term has been derived from military vocabulary and is being used since 1990s in the business management parlance. VUCA is also considered as a practical code for awareness and readiness.

I find all the elements of VUCA playing an active role in the prescription demand generation space too, as it is based on various assumptions of what will work and what won’t in a fast changing pharmaceuticals business environment. 

The interplay:

Primary interplay in the sustainable prescription demand generation process of today’s digitally empowered VUCA environment, I reckon, could be as follows:

  • Volatility: Fast changing dynamics of medical communication with interfaces made of emerging modern technological tools carrying high risks of rapid obsolescence.
  • Uncertainty: Lack of predictability in assessing outcomes of increasingly expensive product detailing inputs, coupled with too many surprise elements popping-up in the environment almost from nowhere and more frequently.
  • Complexity: Multi-factorial Doctor-Medical Representative (MR) interactions, which get even more complicated with increasing time constraints for effective product detailing to take place.
  • Ambiguity: Difficult to fathom changing needs of the doctors/payors, leading to increasing cause-and-effect confusion by the pharma marketing strategy planners.

Keeping these in view, today I shall deliberate on the ‘Criticality of Optimal Mix of Human and State of Art Digital Interfaces’ for sustainable prescription demand generation in a VUCA environment.

The key influencer – a new study:

A research study published in June 2013, in the ‘American Heart Journal (AHJ)’ establishes that the interaction between physicians and MRs, though essential for  improvement of medical care, is indeed complex. This is mainly because of the apprehension that conflict of interests may affect the doctors’ prescription decision-making process. 

However, the fact comes out, the doctors tend to prescribe more of expensive medical products after interacting with MRs from the concerned manufacturing companies, which, in turn, raises the treatment costs for patients.

Study established MRs influence prescription decision:

This particular AHJ study compared the use of Bare-Metal Stents, Drug-Eluting Stents (DES), and Balloon Catheters according to company presence in the hospital. It concluded that MR presence was associated with increased use of the concerned company’s stents during percutaneous coronary interventions. The effect was more pronounced on the use of DES, and resulted in higher procedural cost of US$ 250 per patient.

In this particular study, it was found that DESs were used in about 56 percent of the cases, when the MRs concerned were at the hospital, against 51 percent when they weren’t there.

Interestingly on such interactions between the MRs and the drug/devices industry two opposite viewpoints emerge.

‘MR-Doctor interaction important‘ – Industry:

Quoting the Associate General Counsel and Director of Legal and Medical Affairs at the Advanced Medical Technology Association, a medical technology trade association, Reuters reported, “interactions between sales representatives and doctors benefit patients and are supported by professional medical organizations.”

‘MR interaction should not influence prescription decision’ – Doctors:

In the same report, the study’s lead author was quoted saying, “We need to evaluate carefully any interactions with medical industry to ensure that we minimize an effect on our decision making process.”

The bottom-line, though the debate continues:

This debate will keep continuing even in the years ahead. Be that as it may, the key fact that emerges out of the above study is, MRs do play a critical role in the prescription decision-making process of the doctors, especially for expensive medical products . Consequently, the pharmaceutical companies will prefer maintaining such ‘influencing’ roles of MRs to boost revenues of their respective brands.

This process assumes even greater importance in a VUCA world, as situation specific more frequent human interventions, strongly backed by state of art technological supports, would need to be effectively deployed for generation of sustainable prescription demand to excel in business.

The X-Factor:

However, one of the most challenging issues even in a VUCA situation is that pharma players continue and will continue to target the same sets of prolific prescribers for any given class of products in pursuit of success. As a result, time being so limited, very often even after waiting for hours MRs may not be able to meet the key prescribers.

Moreover, as and when the meeting takes place, it may well get restricted to just a very brief discussion due to the X Factor – paucity of the doctors’ time. Thus, delivering an effective product message in such a short time becomes increasingly challenging. Further, the difficulty in arresting un-interrupted attention of the busy practitioners due to X-Factor when they are with patients, compounds the problem.

Pivotal role of state of art technological tools:

The effectiveness of connection between respective brands of different drug makers and the doctors can be greatly facilitated with the application of state of art technology and modern internet based tools in varying proportions, as the sales and marketing communication strategy would dictate.

This area is emerging as a crafty game, which calls for wide-scale application of analytics.

Traditional strategies not enough:

In a VUCA world, while traditional face-to-face product detailing to doctors may continue to be the primary means for prescription demand generation, experimentation with a good number of new Internet based initiatives has already been started, as I discussed in my earlier article.

Hence, the concepts of digital marketing and e-detailing are gaining ground fast. Such initiatives of augmented digital communication of key marketing messages to doctors, would also help driving the key customers’ traffic to respective product Websites of the concerned companies for more detailed and convincing medical treatment solutions, as and when required by the busy doctors.

Types of digital interventions:

These digital interventions may include:

  • Highly targeted brand specific e-mailing responding to pre-identified needs of individual doctors
  • Sample ordering as per requirements of doctors
  • Live online product presentations at a time convenient to individual doctors
  • Quick and need-based problem solution centric online chats 24×7
  • Strategic usage of social media, backed by a robust pre-decided key output measuring matrix

However, the mix of each of these digital applications will need to be carefully worked out as robust supporting measures to key prescription demand generation activities, spearheaded by the MRs. 

MRs to remain as ‘Spearheads’:

In my view, MRs would still remain the frontline force in the emerging world (dis)order, may be lesser in number, for sustainable prescription demand generation process. Therefore, there is an urgent need to take them on board upfront and train suitably to make the modern digital interfaces successful as powerful differentiating support tools.

Technology based training on digital marketing and e-detailing as empowering initiatives, demonstrating tangible benefits that such high tech-interventions can offer in the overall sales performance of MRs, would play a critical role. Such efforts would, in turn, immensely help making digital augmentation strategies for pharma detailing successful, in the long run.

MR involvement is critical:

In my view, to be successful in a VUCA environment with all these endeavors, however tech-intensives those may be, there will be a critical need to make the MRs understand and learn the process. In tandem, it is equally important to actively engage them in the execution of the integrated medical communication strategy of the concerned companies.

Keeping this perspective in mind, I guess, it will be quite apt to quote Ben Franklyn, one of the Founding Fathers of the United States and a leading author, printer, political theorist, politician, scientist, musician, inventor and economist, all in one, who once wrote:

“Tell me and I forget, 

 Teach me and I remember,

 Involve me and I learn”

Thus, MRs would continue to have a critical role to play in the demand generation process for prescription medicines. However, they must be properly trained to be able to provide the types of knowledge and information that the doctors may not have ready access from elsewhere.

The entire process would, at the same time, require massive technological interventions, not incremental in nature but radical in scope and dimensions, and at a much wider scale than what we have been attempting today.

Challenges in India:

The very concept of VUCA in the changing dynamics of sustainable prescription demand generation, brings to the fore the issue of quality of MRs in India.

Currently there is a wide, both inter and intra company, variation in the educational qualifications, relevant product and disease area knowledge, professional conduct and ethical standards between MRs in our country.

Employability of MR in a VUCA world:

Just when we talk about augmented digital interfaces in medical communications, there exists a huge challenge in the country to strike a right balance between the level/quality of sales pitch generated by the MRs for a brand.

At times, many of them may not be properly armed with requisite scientific knowledge, and the basic norms of professional conduct/ ethical standards, while rendering their services.

They may not also be able to handle the sophisticated technological tools with quick application of minds. Hence, the subject of employability of MR in a VUCA world needs to be addressed afresh in India.

‘One size fits all’ strategies:

To make it happen, the pharmaceutical players would require to jettison, ‘one size fits all’ types of strategies in a VUCA world.

In tandem, pharma marketing strategists will need to be intimately conversant with a relatively difficult process of cerebral gymnastics to help formulating individual key prescriber-centric communication strategies, where MRs can play a key role with optimal digital interventions.

This is possible, if supported by the respective employers creating an environment of empowerment, backed by requisite product training, technological tools, modern behavioral inputs and above all by making investments to create of a large sustainable emotional capital for longer term  business excellence.

Conclusion:

All the elements of VUCA would keep playing very critical roles in sustainable prescription demand generation process in the years to come, more than ever before.

There is a critical need to understand the interplay between each of these dynamics on an ongoing basis to make strategic modifications quickly, whenever required. This is important, as the prowess to introduce right changes at right times will differentiate men from the boys in this ultimate ball game of the pharma industry. 

To succeed in a VUCA environment, pharmaceutical companies may choose to predominantly focus on harnessing their technological expertise. 

However, to face the waves of virtually unpredictable continuous change, only technology based efforts, I reckon, are less likely to fructify. Unless, these high- tech interventions are spearheaded by time-specific fast enough and intelligent skilled human responses in form of MRs. 

Having said that, it would be foolhardy to even think of completely taming VUCA with whatever human and technological wherewithal that any pharma player may be able to garner to achieve its goals. It is, in fact, a matter of relativity in managing VUCA in a given situation at a given time. 

Thus I believe, there is, on the contrary, a need to leverage a VUCA environment, for creation of an ‘Optimal Mix of Human and State of Art Digital Interfaces’ in the product detailing process with a high sense of urgency. This would be critical to gain cutting edge advantages for generation of increased prescription demand in a sustainable way.

For the pharmaceutical marketing strategists, this new ball game would obviously not be a piece of cake either, as the key success factors would involve the right mindset of first unlearning and then relearning the process on an ongoing basis, virtually in all time to come

With this perspective, I conclude by quoting the famous American writer and futurist Alvin Toffler, who once said,

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.”

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Are Preventive Medicines always cost effective to be an area of focus in healthcare management?

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American Board of Preventive Medicine defines ‘Preventive Medicine’ as follows:

“Preventive Medicine is the specialty of medical practice that focuses on the health of individuals, communities, and defined populations. Its goal is to protect, promote, and maintain health and well-being and to prevent disease, disability and death.”

The most basic examples of preventive medicines are known to be hand washing, breast feeding and immunization.

Simple preventive measures, such as, increasing awareness against tobacco smoking, misuse of alcohol or unprotected sex, especially in an emerging economy like India, will go a long way to prevent and control such habit related diseases, help saving significant expenditure of the nation towards healthcare.

The purpose:

The primary purpose of preventive medicines could well have dual objectives as follows:

  • Disease prevention of a large section of the population
  • Reduce the healthcare expenses

Primary, secondary and tertiary prevention:

As stated above, primary disease prevention usually would include vaccination against specific disease types, whereas secondary and tertiary prevention are usually done through early detection process and screening of the target population.

Relevance to chronic diseases:

A World Health Organization (WHO) report, titled, “Preventing Chronic diseases – a vital investment” argues that globally of the 58 million deaths in 2005, approximately 35 million were due to chronic diseases, which were expected to increase by 17% in the next 10 years thereafter.

It points out that 80% of all premature heart disease, stroke and diabetes are preventable. This assumes greater significance as 80% deaths due to chronic disease occur in low and middle income nations where most of the world population lives, against only 20% of the same in the high income countries.

The report, therefore, articulates that it is absolutely necessary for the countries to review and implement a comprehensive and integrated preventive public health strategy.

Regular preventive measures:

Experts recommend following regular preventive measures, which are very relevant to India:

  • Counseling on hygienic life style
  • Routine primary vaccinations
  • Counseling on quitting smoking, alcohol misuse, protected sex, losing weight, eating healthy food, treating depression etc.
  • Regular general health check-up
  • Cancer screenings like mammograms and colonoscopies

Immense potential in India:

In a country like India, with high prevalence of many preventable diseases involving a large section of the nation’s population, preventive medicine promises immense potential to reduce the healthcare expenditure of the country significantly and at the same time would promise a much better quality of life to its population.

A counter point:

Another school of thought, primarily US based, advocates that preventive medicines, on the contrary, would raise the healthcare expenditure.

  • Preventive Medicine increases healthcare cost:

In support of this contrarian view, a paper published in ‘The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)’ on February 14, 2008 based on 599 studies between 2000 and 2005 infers that though disease prevention in some cases may reduce the cost of healthcare, more preventive medicines in many cases could, in fact, increase  the overall healthcare expenditure.

  • Screening cost is more than savings:

It says that screening cost of a disease for a large section of the population may far exceed the savings from treatment avoidance in those cases where only a small part of the population would have become ill in the absence of preventive measures.

  • Treatment with medicine offers greater value:

The article also points out that:

“The drugs used to treat high cholesterol yield much greater value for the money, if the targeted population is at high risk for coronary heart disease, and the efficiency of cancer screening can depend heavily on both the frequency of the screening and the level of cancer risk in the screened population.”

  • Preventive medicine more expensive:

The authors argue that preventive medicine will be more expensive where to make a small populations free from a particular disease, preventive measures are taken involving a large population, most of whom even otherwise would not have suffered from that illness.

Conclusion:

Coming back to the WHO report which categorically says, contrary to the belief of some section of the society, especially in the USA that measures for control and prevention of chronic diseases are really not too expensive for any nation, not even for the low and middle income countries.

In reality, even chronic diseases can be prevented and effectively controlled to reduce the disease burden of any country very significantly. The WHO article also says that expensive patented medicines are no longer required for prevention of, for example, even cardiac ailments. The cheaper generic drugs, if used along with counseling on life style changes, will be quite affordable to a vast majority of population even in the middle and low income countries.

Weighing all pros and cons, WHO aims to reduce the death rates from all chronic diseases by 2% per year through preventive medicines, which would mean prevention of 36 million deaths due to chronic disease by 2015, mostly in the low and middle income countries.

These statistics will more than vindicate the argument that preventive measures and medicines are cost effective, in the long run for any nation, particularly for a country like India.

By: Tapan J Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Game Changer: Effective transition from ‘blockbuster’ to an integrated ‘niche buster’ plus ‘generic drugs’ business model

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Since quite some time global pharmaceutical majors have been operating within the confines of high risk – high reward R&D based business model with blockbuster drugs (annual sales of over US$ 1 billion).

Blockbuster brands, mostly in the chronic-care segments have been driving the business growth, since long, of the global R&D based pharmaceutical companies. Many such blockbuster drugs are now at the end of their patent life like, Lipitor (Atorvastatin) of Pfizer.

Patent expiry of such drugs, especially in the environment of patent cliff, could make a severe adverse impact on the revenue and profit stream of many companies, leading to drastic cost cut including retrenchment of a large number of employees.

In addition ballooning costs of R&D failure coupled with the decisions of the governments all across the world, including the US , EU and even in Asia, to contain the healthcare cost – the recent examples being Germany, Spain, Korea and China, have become the major cause of concern with the business model of blockbuster drugs.

Availability of low cost and high quality generics coupled with increasing consumerism, growing relevance of outcome-based pricing model are making the global pharmaceutical business models more and more complex.

The need to realign with the new climate:

Accenture in its report titled, “The Era of Outcomes – Emerging Pharmaceutical Business Models for High Performance” had commented, “Unless pharmaceutical companies act now to adjust to the new climate, they will be pressured to sell their proprietary drugs at low profits because the market will no longer bear the premium price”.

‘Blockbuster drugs’ business model is under stress:

Over a period of so many years, the small-molecule blockbuster drugs business model made the global pharmaceutical industry a high-margin/high growth industry. However, it now appears that the low hanging fruits to make blockbuster drugs, with reasonable investments on R&D, have mostly been plucked.

These low hanging fruits mostly involved therapy areas like, anti-ulcerants, anti-lipids, anti-diabetics, cardiovascular, anti-psychotic etc. and their many variants, which were relatively easy R&D targets to manage chronic ailments. Hereafter, the chances of successfully developing drugs for ‘cure’ of these chronic ailments, with value addition, would indeed be a very tough call and enormously expensive.

Thus the blockbuster model of growth engine of the innovator companies effectively relying on a limited number of ‘winning horses’ to achieve their business goal and meeting the Wall Street expectations is becoming more and more challenging. It is well known that such business model will require a rich and vibrant R&D pipeline, always.

The changing scenario with depleting R&D pipeline:

The situation has started changing since quite some time from now. In 2007, depleting pipeline of the blockbuster drugs hit a new low. It is estimated that around U.S. $ 140 billion of annual turnover from blockbuster drugs will get almost shaved off due to patent expiry by the year 2016.

IMS reports that in 2010 revenue of more than U.S. $ 27 billion was adversely impacted due to patent expiry. Another set of blockbuster drugs with similar value turnover will go off patent by the end of 2011.

According to IBIS World, the following large brands will go off patent in 2011 and 2012:

Patent Expiry in 2011

Condition

Company

 2010 US Sales $ billion
Lipitor cholesterol Pfizer

5.3
Zyprexa antipsychotic Eli Lily

2.5
Levaquin antibiotics Johnson & Johnson

1.3
Patent Expiry in 2012

Condition

Company

 2010 US Sales $ billion
Plavix anti-platelet Bristol-Myers Squibb / Sanofi-Aventis

6.2
Seroquel antipsychotic AstraZeneca

3.7
Singulair asthma Merck

3.2
Actos type 2 diabetes Takeda

3.4
Enbrel arthritis Amgen

3.3

Proactive shift is required from ‘Blockbuster’ to Niche buster’ model:

Companies with blockbuster-drug business model without adequate molecules in the research pipeline may need to readjust their strategy even if they want to pursue similar R&D focused business model effectively.

Brand proliferation, though innovative, within similar class of molecules competing in the same therapy area, is making the concerned markets highly fragmented with no clear brand domination. In a situation like this, outcome based pricing and competitive pressure will no longer help attracting premium price for such brands anymore.

Being confronted with this kind of situation, many companies are now shifting their R&D initiatives from larger therapy areas with blockbuster focus like, cardiovascular, diabetes, hypertension and more common types of cancer to high value and technologically more complex niche busters in smaller therapy areas like, Alzheimer, Multiple Sclerosis, Parkinsonism, rare types of cancer, urinary incontinence, schizophrenia, specialty vaccines etc.

This trend is expected to continue for quite some time from now.

Generics to continue to drive the growth in the emerging markets:

It is expected that the global pharmaceutical market will record a turnover of US $1.1 trillion by 2014 with the growth predominantly driven by the emerging markets like, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey and Korea growing at 14% – 17%, while the developed markets are expected to grow just around 3-6% during that period.

The United States of America will continue to remain the largest pharmaceutical market of the world, with around 3-6% growth.

IMS predicts that over the next five years the industry will have the peak period of patent expiry amounting to sales of more than US$ 142 billion, further intensifying the generic competition.

The experts believe that the growth in the emerging markets will continue to come primarily from the generic drugs.

Integrated combo-business model with ‘niche busters’ and generic drugs:

Some large companies have already started imbibing an integrated combo-business model of innovative niche busters and generic medicines, focusing more on high growth emerging pharmaceutical markets.

The global generic drug market was worth US $107.8 billion USD in 2009 and is estimated to be of US$ 129.3 billion by 2014 with a CAGR of around 10%. However, there are some companies, who are still ‘sticking to knitting’ with the traditional R&D ‘blockbuster drugs’ based business models.

The process of innovative and generic drugs ‘combo-business model’ was initiated way back in 1996, when Novartis AG was formed with the merger of Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz. At that time the later became the global generic pharmaceutical business arm of Novartis AG, which continued to project itself as a research-based global pharmaceutical company. With this strategy Novartis paved the way for other innovator companies to follow this uncharted frontier, as a global ‘combo-business strategy’. In 2009 Sandoz was reported to have achieved 19% of the overall net sales of Novartis, with a turnover of US$ 7.2 billion growing at 20%.

Other recent example of such consolidation process in the emerging markets happened on June 10, 2010, when GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced that it has acquired ‘Phoenix’, a leading Argentine pharmaceutical company focused on the development, manufacturing, marketing and sale of branded generic products, for a cash consideration of around US $ 253 million. With this acquisition, GSK gained full ownership of ‘Phoenix’ to accelerate its business growth in Argentina and the Latin American region.

Similarly another global pharma major Sanofi is now seriously trying to position itself as a major player in the generics business, as well, with the acquisition of Zentiva, an important player in the European generics market. Zentiva, is a leading generic player in the markets like, Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Romania, Poland  and Russia, besides the Central and Eastern European region. In addition to Zentiva, in the same year 2009, Sanofi also acquired other two important generic players, Medley in Brazil and Kendrick in Mexico.

With this Sanofi announced, “Building a larger business in generic medicines is an important part of our growth strategy. Focusing on the needs of patients, Sanofi has conducted a regional approach in order to enlarge its business volumes and market share, offering more affordable high-quality products to more patients”.

Keeping a close vigil on these developments, even Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical player of the world, has started curving out a niche for itself in the global market of fast growing generics, following the footsteps of other large global players like, Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Daiichi Sankyo and Abbott.

Yet another strategy – splitting the company for greater focus on both generic and innovative pharmaceuticals:

In the midst of the above trend, on October 19, 2011 Chicago based Abbott announced with a ‘Press Release’ its plan to separate into two publicly traded companies, one in diversified medical products and the other in research-based pharmaceuticals. The announcement said, the diversified medical products company will consist of Abbott’s existing diversified medical products portfolio, including its branded generic pharmaceutical, devices, diagnostic and nutritional businesses, and will retain the Abbott name. The research-based pharmaceutical company will include Abbott’s current portfolio of proprietary pharmaceuticals and biologics and will be named later. Both companies will be global leaders in their respective industries, the Press Release said.

Such splits are based on the belief of many that in the pharmaceutical business two entirely different business models of new drug discovery and generics will need different kind of business focus, which may not complement each other for the long term growth of the overall business.

OTC Switch of prescription drugs will continue:Prescription to ‘Over the Counter (OTC)’ switch of pharmaceutical products is another business strategy that many innovator companies have started imbibing from quite some time, though at a much larger scale now.This strategy is helping many global pharmaceutical companies, especially in the Europe and the US to expand the indication of the drugs and thereby widening the patients’ base.Recent prescription to OTC switches will include products like, Losec (AstraZeneca), Xenical (Roche), Zocor (Merck), etc. Perhaps Lipitor (Pfizer) will join this bandwagon soon.
Conclusion:

PwC in its publication titled “Pharma 2020: The Vision” articulated:

“The current pharmaceutical industry business model is both economically unsustainable and operationally incapable of acting quickly enough to produce the types of innovative treatments demanded by global markets. In order to make the most of these future growth opportunities, the industry must fundamentally change the way it operates.”

Quite in tandem a gradually emerging new ‘pharmaceutical sales and marketing model’ has started emphasizing the need for innovative collaboration and partnership within the global pharmaceutical industry by bundling medicines with patient oriented services. In this model, besides marketing just the medicines, as we see today, the expertise of a company to effectively deliver some key services like, patient monitoring and disease management could well be the cutting edge for business excellence. In this evolving scenario, those companies, which will be able to offer better value with an integrated mix of medicines with services, are expected to be on the winning streak.

Be that as it may, effective transition from ‘blockbuster’ to an integrated ‘niche buster’ plus ‘generic drugs’ business model, is expected to be “The Game Changer’ in the new ball game of the global pharmaceutical industry in the years ahead.

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.