Patent Expiry No Longer End of The Road

Posted on December 4, 2017 by Tapan Ray

Who says that the phenomenal success of blockbuster drugs is mostly eaten away by ‘look-alikes’ of the same, immediately after respective patent expiry? It doesn’t seem to be so any longer, not anymore! Several examples will vindicate this emerging trend. However, I shall quote just a few of these from the published reports.

In 2016, the patent of AbbVie’s Humira (Adalimumab), indicated in the treatment of autoimmune diseases and moderate to severely active rheumatoid arthritis, expired in the United States (US). It will also expire in Europe by 2018. This event was expected to create significant opportunities for lower priced Adalimumab biosimilars in the US market, increasing the product access to many more patients at affordable prices. Just as it happens with patent expiry of small molecule blockbuster drugs. One of the classic examples of which, is a sharp decline in sales turnover and profit from Pfizer’s Lipitor (Atorvastatin), as its patent expired on November 30, 2011.

However, Humira topped the prescription-drug list of 2016 with an annual growth of 15 percent, accounting for USD 16 billion sales, globally. More interestingly, according to a recent report of EvaluatePharma, AbbVie’s Humira will continue to retain its top most ranking in 2020 with expected sales of USD 13.9 billion. Nevertheless, possible threat from biosimilars has slightly slowed down its growth. Although, there are many other similar examples, I would quote just three more of these to illustrate the point, as follows:

Rituxan (Rituximab, MabThera) indicated in the treatment of cancer and co-marketed by Biogen and Roche, went off-patent in 2015. However, in 2016, the product held 4^th position in the prescription drug market with a revenue growth of nearly 3 percent. Even five years after its patent expiry, Rituxan is still expected to occupy the 17^thrank with an estimated turnover of over USD 5 billion in 2020, according to the EvaluatePharma report.

Remicade (Infliximab) indicated for autoimmune diseases and manufactured by J&J and Merck, lost market exclusivity in 2015. But, in 2016 it still held 5^th place in the global ranking. Five years after it goes off patent, Remicade is expected to feature in the 6^th rank in 2020, with an estimated turnover of over USD 6.5 billion, according to the same report as above.

The US product patent for Lantus – a long-acting human insulin analog manufactured by Sanofi, expired in August 2014. However, in 2016, clocking a global turnover of USD 6.05 billion, Lantus still ranked 10 in the global prescription brand league table. Six years after its patent expiry – in 2020, Lantus will continue to feature in the rank 20, as the same EvaluatePharma report estimates.

These examples give a feel that unlike small molecule blockbuster drugs, patent expiry is still not end of the road to retain this status for most large molecule biologics, across the world. In this article, I shall discuss this point taking Humira as the case study.

What about biosimilar competition?

In any way, this does not mean that related biosimilars are not getting regulatory approval in the global markets, post-patent expiry of original biologic drugs, including the United States. Nonetheless, biosimilar makers are facing new challenges in this endeavor, some of which are highly cost intensive, creating tough hurdles to make such drugs available to more patients at an affordable price, soon enough. It happened for the very first biosimilar to Humira, as well. On September 23, 2016, almost immediately after its patent expiry in 2016, the USFDA by a Press Release announced approval for the first biosimilar to Humira (adalimumab). This was Amgen’s Amjevita (adalimumab-atto), indicated for multiple inflammatory diseases.

The second biosimilar to AbbVie’s Humira – Boehringer Ingelheim’s Cyltezo (adalimumab-adbm), was also approved by the USFDA in August 2017. So far, six biosimilars have been introduced in the United states. But, none of these got approved as an ‘interchangeable’ product. Some of these, such as Cyltezo could not even be launched, as yet. I shall discuss this point later in this article. Thus, Humira is expected to retain its top global prescription brand ranking in 2020 – over 4 years after its patent expiry.

In Europe, two marketing authorizations were reportedly granted by the European Commission (EC) in March 2017 for Amgen’s biosimilars to Humira, named Amgevita (adalimumab) and Solymbic (adalimumab). Later this year, in November 2017 Boehringer Ingelheim’s – Cyltezo also received its European marketing approval.

It is worth noting that in December 2014, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) reportedly granted marketing approval for Zydus Cadila’s Adalimumab biosimilar (Exemptia) for treating rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune disorders in India. The company claims: “This novel non-infringing process for Adalimumab Biosimilar and a novel non-infringing formulation have been researched, developed and produced by scientists at the Zydus Research Centre. The biosimilar is the first to be launched by any company in the world and is a ‘fingerprint match’ with the originator in terms of safety, purity and potency of the product.”

Several important reasons indicate why a full throttle competition is lacking in the biosimilar market early enough – immediately after patent expiry of original biologic molecules. I shall cite just a couple of these examples to illustrate the point. One is related to aggressive brand protection, creating a labyrinth of patents having different expiry dates. And the other is a regulatory barrier in the form of drug ‘interchangeability’ condition, between the original biologic and related biosimilars:

In the labyrinth of patents:

The most recent example of innovator companies fiercely protecting their original biologic from the biosimilar competition by creating a labyrinth of patents is Boehringer Ingelheim’s Cyltezo. This is biosimilar to AbbVie’s Humira, approved by the USFDA and EC in August 2017 and November 2017, respectively.

According to reports: “BI does not intend to make the drug commercially available in Europe until the respective SPC (supplementary protection certificate) for adalimumab, which extends the duration of certain rights associated with a patent, expires in October 2018. Cyltezo is also not yet available in the US despite its approval there in August, because of ongoing patent litigation with AbbVie. AbbVie reportedly holds more than 100 patents on Humira, and believes that Boehringer could infringe 74 of these with the launch of its biosimilar. Similarly, the firm has also taken Amgen to court to block the launch of its proposed Humira biosimilar.”

Another interesting example is the epoch-making breast cancer targeted therapy Trastuzumab (Herceptin of Roche/Genentech). The patent on Herceptin reportedly expired in 2014 in Europe and will expire in the United States in 2019. The brand registered a turnover of USD 2.5 billion in 2016. However, a November 21, 2017 report says that creating a series of hurdle in the way of Pfizer’s introduction to Herceptin biosimilar, Roche has sued Pfizer for infringement of 40 patents of its blockbuster breast cancer drug. Pfizer hasn’t yet won approval for its Herceptin biosimilar, though, USFDA accepted its application in August 2017 – the report highlights

‘Interchangeability’ condition for biosimilars:

In the largest global pharma market – the United States, USFDA classifies biosimilars into two very distinct categories:

Biosimilars that are “expected to produce the same clinical result as the reference product”
Biosimilars that are “interchangeable,” or able to be switched with their reference product

According to reports, experts’ argument over ‘interchangeability’ in the US range from “whether pharmacists should be allowed to switch a biologic for its biosimilar without a doctor’s notification, to whether interchangeable biosimilars might be perceived as better or safer than their non-interchangeable counterparts.” This debate has somewhat been resolved by the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) issuance of draft guidance in January 2017, specifying what should be submitted to support an interchangeable application, the report says.

The article also indicates, “the draft makes clear that switching studies to help gain this designation should evaluate changes in treatment that result in two or more alternating exposures (switch intervals) to the proposed interchangeable product and to the reference product. Study design, types of data and other considerations are also included in that draft.” Nonetheless, compliance with this regulatory requirement is expected to be highly cost intensive, too.

Quoting a senior USFDA official, a report dated June 26, 2017 mentioned: “interchangeable biosimilars will come to market within the next two years, though possibly sooner. And the first interchangeable biosimilar will likely be reviewed by an FDA advisory committee of outside experts.” Still the bottom line remains no biosimilar has yet been approved by the USFDA as ‘interchangeable’. Hence, the optics related to desirable success for biosimilars continue to remain somewhat apprehensive, I reckon.

Patent related litigations on Trastuzumab (Herceptin) were filed by Roche in India, as well. However, it’s good to note that on December 01, 2017, by a Press Release, USFDA announced the approval of Mylan’s biosimilar variety of Roche’s blockbuster breast cancer drug – Herceptin. Mylan’s Ogivri was co-developed with Biocon in India to treat breast or stomach cancer, and is the first biosimilar approved in the United States for these indications. It is noteworthy that Ogivri also has not been approved as an interchangeable product.

The global and local scenario for biosimilars:

Be that as it may, the July 26, 2017 study of Netscribes – a global market intelligence and content management firm estimates that the global biosimilar market will be worth USD 36 billion by 2022. Some of the major findings of this study are as follows:

With a cumulative share of nearly 85%, North America, Europe, and Japan are the major contributors to global biological and biosimilar sales. Asia and Africa account for 13.2% and 1.2%, respectively.
Pfizer is the leading player in the biologic market, with sales of nearly USD 45.9 billion in 2016 followed by Novartis (41.6 billion) and Roche (39.6 billion).
Biosimilar approvals are estimated to be around of around 16 to 20 biosimilars between 2018 to 2021 in both US and EU.
The US is not a favorable market for biosimilars due to a number of reasons, such as poor access to biologic drugs and an unfavorable regulatory environment.
South Africa is one of the best-suited markets for biosimilars due to a favorable regulatory environment and prescriber acceptance.

According to the April 2017 analysis of Research And Markets, biosimilars have started winning key government tenders in countries like Mexico and Russia, and being purchased by a growing number of patients in self-pay markets such as India. The aggregate sales of ‘copy biologics’ in the six BRIC-MS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, and South Korea) countries would now almost certainly exceed USD 1.5 billion. Yet Another estimate expects the Indian biosimilar market to increase from USD 186 million in 2016 to USD 1.1 billion in 2020. It is up to individual experts to assess whether or not this growth trend for biosimilars is desirable to adequately benefit a large number of patients, the world over.

Conclusion:

In my view, if what usually happens to sales and profit for small molecule blockbuster drugs post patent expiry, would have happened to the large molecule biologic drugs, the market scenario for biosimilars would have been quite different. In that scenario, one would have witnessed a plethora of biosimilar competition against high priced and money churning biologics, such as Humira, being launched with a significantly lesser price than the original brand.

Prices of biosimilars would have been much lesser primarily because, the litigation cost, now built into the biosimilar prices for successfully coming out of the labyrinth of patents after the basic patent expiry, would have been minimal. Moreover, restrictions on drug ‘interchangeability’ would not have made the target market smaller, especially in the United states.

Alongside, compliance with the regulatory need to meet the ‘interchangeability’ condition in the US, would drive the product cost even higher. More so, when this specific regulatory requirement is not necessary in other developed markets, like Europe. Both these factors would adversely impact affordability and access to sophisticated biologic drugs for patients, even after the fixed period of market exclusivity.

That said, a virtually impregnable patent labyrinth mostly ensures that going off-patent isn’t end of the road for blockbuster biologic drugs to continue generating significant revenue and profit, any longer – and it would remain so at least, in the short to medium term.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma Outlook 2015: A Glimpse Of Some Drivers and Barriers

Posted on January 5, 2015 by Tapan Ray

Looking ahead, the brand new year 2015 appears quite interesting to me both from the global and also from the local pharmaceutical industry perspective. In this article I shall try to give a glimpse of some of the important drivers and barriers for success of the industry as the year unfolds, based on recent and ongoing developments.

Let me start with the global outlook of 2015, where in the midst of all gloom and doom of the past years, I notice formation of a distinct and new silver lining, mainly due to the following two reasons:

1. Record number of new drugs approval in 2014 spanning across10 therapy areas:

As indicated in its website, USFDA has approved 41 novel medicines in 2014, which is 14 more than the previous year and is the second highest after 1996 that witnessed 53 approvals. Many of these new drugs are with blockbuster potential.

According to another report, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has also recommended 82 new medicines in 2014, which though includes generic drugs in its list. However, this number too shows an increase from 79 in 2013 and 57 in 2012.

According to January 02, 2014 report from Forbes, very interestingly, infectious diseases dominated with 12 approvals (27 percent), cancer with 8 approvals (18 percent), followed by rare diseases with 5 (11 percent). Just two of these new approvals are for Hepatitis treatment and the rest are for bacterial, fungal, viral, and parasitic infections.

AstraZeneca received the highest number of 4 approvals followed by Eli Lilly with 3.

2. Patent expired blockbuster drugs in 2015 would have low generic impact:

Though drugs worth sales turnover of US$ 44 billion would go off patent in 2015, patent expiries will have minimal impact on the top line as 2015 sales will grow close to four times that of patent losses. Following are the top 10 drugs among those:

No.	Brand	Company	Disease	Sales2013 (US$ Bn)	Patent Expiry
1.	Lantus	Sanofi	Diabetes	7.9	Feb 2015
2.	Abilify	Otsuka/Bristol-Myers Squibb	Schizophrenia/ Other neurological conditions	7.8	April 2015
3.	Copaxone	Teva	Multiple sclerosis	4.33	Sept 2015
4.	Neulasta	Amgen	Infection reduction in cancer patients on chemotherapy	4.4	Oct 2015
5.	Tracleer	Actelion	Pulmonary arterial hypertension	1.57	Nov 2015
6.	Namenda	Actavis	Alzheimer’s disease	1.5	April 2015
7.	Avodart/Jalyn	GSK	Benign prostatic hypertrophy	1.34	Nov 2015
8.	Zyvox	Pfizer	Gram-positive bacterial infections	1.35	May 2015
9.	AndroGel	Abbvie	Low testosterone	1.03	Early 2015
10.	Synagis	AstraZeneca	Monoclonal antibody to prevent respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants	1.1	Oct 2015

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

As a significant number of these drugs are biologics, such as Lantus, Abilify, Neulasta and Synagis, the generic impact on those large brands, post patent expiry, would be minimal, at least, for several more years.

However, Lantus sales could soon be impacted, as its biosimilar versions from Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly have already received approval in Europe, and may be launched in the United States, as well.

Biosimilar versions of other drugs that will go off patent in 2015, do not seem to be anywhere near launch soon to make immediate dent in the sales of the original biologics. I had deliberated on various possible reasons for delay in biosimilar entry, especially in the US, in my earlier blog post of August 25, 2014, titled “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns”

Taking all these into consideration, EvaluatePharma has estimated that out of patent expiry related sales turnover of US$44 billion, just around US $16 billion would get impacted in 2015 by their generic equivalents.

Global market outlook 2015:

According to IMS Health, spending on medicines will reach nearly $1,100 billion in 2015 with a growth rate of 3-6 percent over the last five-year period.

According to EvaluatePharma, the overall outlook of the global pharma industry in 2015 and beyond is expected to be as follows:

A dozen products launched in 2015 are forecast to achieve blockbuster sales by 2020

Drugs treating high cholesterol and heart failure will dominate the field with a combined 2020 sales forecast of US$8 billion

Sovaldi and its combination product Harvoni will take the number one worldwide seller spot with forecasted sales of $15.3 billion in 2015

Patent expiries will have minimal impact on the top line as 2015 sales will grow close to four times that of patent losses

Financing climate appears friendly and deals will continue at a steady pace but M&A activity unlikely to match the frenzy of 2014

Moreover, Oncology therapy area brings a huge promise with novel immuno-oncology drugs. As Reuters have reported, Merck & Co’s Keytruda and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo, which work by blocking a protein called Programmed Death receptor (PD-1), are the first in a coming wave of immuno-therapies that analysts believe could generate annual sales of more than US$30 billion a year.

Indian pharma industry outlook 2015:

Indian pharmaceutical industry, dominated by branded generic drugs, is estimated to register a turnover of around US$ 33.8 billion with an average growth of 10.3 percent in 2014 – 2018 period, according to Deloitte. Increasing number of diagnosis and treatment of chronic ailments, fuelled by ascending trend in the per capita income, would be the key factors to drive this double-digit growth rate.

In 2013-14, pharma exports of the country with a turnover of US$ 14.84 billion grew at a meager 1.2 percent, which is the slowest growth in nearly the last 15 years. Pharmexcil attributed its reason to USFDA related regulatory issues and increasing global competition. India still stands exposed in this area, unless meaningful corrective measures are taken forthwith. It is worth noting, although India exports drugs to over 200 countries in the world, the United States (US) alone accounts for about 25 percent of India’s pharma exports.

Key issues and challenges in ‘The Exports Front’:

Generic drugs currently contribute over 80 percent of prescriptions written in the US. Around 40 percent of prescriptions and Over The Counter (OTC) drugs that are sold there, come from India and account for around 10 per cent of finished dosages in the US.

Almost all of these are cheaper generic versions of patent expired drugs, which are mainly produced in around 200 USFDA approved drug-manufacturing facilities located in India. Hence, India’s commercial stake in this space is indeed mind-boggling.

Indian drug exports were taking place satisfactorily without any major regulatory hitches since quite some time. Unfortunately, over the last few years, mostly the Federal Drug Administration of the US (USFDA) and the United Kingdom (UK)’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) have started raising serious doubts on the quality of medicines manufactured in India, creating an uncertainty on drug exports in those countries.

To overcome this critical issue and keep marching ahead with distinction in the drug exports front, Indian pharma would require to successfully dealing with the following two areas:

A. Data integrity:

Since quite a while, USFDA has been raising serious concerns on ‘Data Integrity’ in their previously approved production facilities of a large number of Indian pharma players. The details of each of these concerns are available in the USFDA website.

This worrying development is now posing a huge threat to future growth potential of Indian drug exports, as in this area the Indian government had set an objective, in its strategy document, to register a turnover of US$ 25 billion in 2014-15. In all probability, it would fall far short of this target at the end of this fiscal, predominantly for related reasons. However, the good news is, considering the criticality of the situation, the Indian government is now working with the USFDA to resolve this problem.

I discussed a part of this area in my Blog Post of September 29, 2014 titled “Make in India…Sell Any Where in The World”: An Indian Pharma Perspective

B. Credibility of Clinical Trial Data from India:

Credibility of ‘Clinical Trial Data’ generated by the domestic players in India, has also become a cause of great concern, as the regulators in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg suspended marketing approval for 25 drugs over the genuineness of clinical trial data from India’s GVK Biosciences.

Key issues and challenges in ‘The Domestic Front’:

Though 2015 would also witness the following important issues and challenges, meeting with this challenge of change should not be difficult with a proper mindset and right strategies:

A. The Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013):

Change in the mechanism of drug price control from earlier ‘cost based’ to newer ‘market based’ one and the specified provisions to neutralize inflationary impact of the input costs on the bottom line, based on the WPI, have already been considered as welcoming changes for the industry. As a result, despite implementation of the DPCO 2013, the pharma shares continued to do well in 2014 despite doomsayers’ predicaments, not just in the past, but even today.

I believe, the DPCO 2013 would not cause any significant negative impact further in 2015 on the performance of pharma companies, as the price controlled drugs would in all probability continue to be around 20 percent of the total pharma market. Moreover, now annual price increases are linked to the WPI for the controlled products and the companies can increase prices of remaining 80 percent of decontrolled products, upto 10 percent every year, irrespective of inflationary trend.

That said, due to huge inter-brand price differences, in July 2014 the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) had brought under price control 50 more cardiovascular and anti-diabetic drugs in addition to 348 drugs that featured under price control in the DPCO 2013.

If the pharma players do not take note of such abnormal inter-brand price variation of the same drugs without meaningful reasons, there could possibly be further move by the NPPA in this direction.

Additionally, any mechanism for patented products’ pricing, if announced in 2015, would have far-reaching impact, especially on the MNCs marketing such drugs.

B. Unethical practices in Clinical trial:

In the Clinical Trial arena of India, responding to a Public Interest Litigation (PIL), the Supreme Court of the country and separately the Parliamentary Standing Committee had indicted the drug regulator and charted out some action areas. The Parliamentary Committee in its report had even mentioned about a nexus existing between the drug regulator and the industry in this area.

Driven by the directives of the Apex Court of the country, the union ministry of health of the government of India has already strengthened some areas of past laxity in drug regulatory control, such as mandatory registration of clinical trials, constitution of committees to oversee the trial approval, its execution and above all ethical treatment of patients, including compensation.

Although, these are all requisite measures to create an appropriate longer-term eco-system for clinical trials in India, it has reportedly ruffled many feathers, such as CROs in the country who work mainly for pharma MNCs and some global pharma players too. This is mainly because of inordinate delays in drug approvals during the regulatory rectification process, besides cost of clinical trials going up. An orderly drug regulatory environment must prevail, instead of allegedly ‘free for all’ clinical trial environment in the country, costing many innocent lives and livelihoods. Responding to this changing clinical trial environment, some MNCs have already articulated that they are reconsidering their drug trial strategy in India and some Indian players, possibly with vested interests and echoing similar sentiments, are also saying that they would shift their clinical trial projects out of India, which would adversely impact the country’s clinical trial industry.

Be that as it may, it appears now that under the directive of the Supreme Court of the country, the decisions taken by the government in clinical trial area are irreversible, for the long-term interest of the country.

C. Intellectual Property (IP) issues:

Reacting to some well-justified measures taken by India in the IP area to make healthcare affordable to all, the US and its some key allies, continuously pressured by their powerful pharma lobby groups, continue to push India hard to broaden the IP protections. ‘Big Pharma’ lobbyists are reportedly trying to compel India to amend its IP laws that would suit their business interest at the cost of patients.

Fortunately, many stakeholders, including media, have started raising their voices against such strong-arm tactics, further fueling the credibility erosion of ‘Big Pharma’ and creating important pressure groups for the government.

Simultaneously, concerned pharma MNCs are also seeking legal recourse over issues mainly related to the section (3d) and Compulsory Licensing of the Indian Patents Act. However, most of the judicial verdicts vindicate the quality of decisions taken by the Indian Patent Office (IPO) in these areas.

Though very unlikely, any amendment or tweaking of the existing patent laws of India in 2015 would provide an unfair advantage to MNCs with negative impact on public health interest.

D. Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices:

Compared to the actions that are now being taken by the law enforcers overseas against pharmaceutical marketing malpractices, India has been showing a rather lackadaisical attitude in these areas, until recently. It astonishes many that unlike even China; no pharmaceutical company has been investigated thoroughly and hauled up by the government for alleged bribery and other serious allegations of corrupt practices.

However, frequent reporting by the Indian media had triggered a debate in the country on the subject. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) on this subject is now pending before the Supreme Court for hearing in the near future. It is worth noting that in 2010, ‘The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Health’ also had expressed its deep concern by stating that the “evil practice” of inducement of doctors by the pharma companies is continuing unabated as the revised guidelines of the Medical Council of India (MCI) have no jurisdiction over the pharma industry.

The Government, until recently, has shown no active interest in this area either, though the new Union Health Minister, J.P. Nadda decried the unethical nexus between the doctors and pharma companies, amounting violations of medical ethics in the country. He reportedly has stated that in majority of the cases, the pharma companies are luring the doctors by giving gifts and other benefits for prescribing the brand of medicines of their choice to the patients.

As the saying goes, ‘better late than never’, on December 12, 2014, the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) of the Government of India announced details of the ‘Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCPMP)’, which would be effective across the country from January 1, 2015 for all pharma players to implement, across India.

However, I reckon, the document in its current form is rather weak in its effective implementation potential. Meaningful and transparent deterrent measures to uphold public health interest are also lacking. The entire process also deserves a well-structured monitoring mechanism and digital implementation tools that can be operated with military precision. I discussed this issue in my Blog Post of December 29, 2014, titled “India’s Pharma Marketing Code (UCPMP): Is It Crafted Well Enough To Deliver The Deliverables?”

On UCPMP a survey done by E&Y has highlighted the following points, besides other areas:

More than 50 percent of the respondents are of the opinion that the UCPMP may lead to manipulation in recording of actual sampling activity.

Over 50 percent of the respondents indicated that the effectiveness of the code would be very low in the absence of legislative support provided to the UCPMP committee.

90 percent of the respondents felt that pharma companies in India should focus on building a robust internal controls system to ensure compliance with the UCPMP.

In my view as well, the self-regulatory measures prescribed in the UCPMP of the DoP are unlikely to make any significant impact in 2015, unless pharma companies start focusing on building robust internal controls system to ensure compliance with the UCPMP.

Conclusion:

I would now put on the balance of probabilities, the new ‘Silver Linings’ of the Global pharmaceutical industry as discussed above, the issues and challenges of 2015 for the Indian pharma and also other important factors that I have not been able to discuss in this article. The overall emerging picture depicts that the pharma industry, both global and local, would fare much better than what it did in the recent past, provided the industry, as a whole, does not continue to ignore the storm signals outright.

Thus, based on the available data, the year 2015, as appears to me, would provide an enormous opportunity with promises of an interesting time ahead that the pharmaceutical industry should try to leverage on…and then cherish it for a long while…most probably as a turning point of the same ball game with different success requirements.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Does Patent Expiry Matter Less For Difficult To Copy Drugs?

Posted on September 8, 2014 by Tapan Ray

“Patent expiry matters much less for difficult to copy drugs”.

Not so long ago, this is what many used to believe in the pharma industry. However, looking at the current trend involving the tech savvy generic players, it appears, gone are those days even for the home grown companies in India. As we witness today, a number of global generic players, including some from India, are overcoming the tough challenge of technological barrier of the original drugs with technology, boldly and squarely, and that too with reasonably good speed.

A global CEO felt quite the same:

Possibly encouraged by this commercial dogma, the Chief Executive of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Sir Andrew Witty reportedly felt in not too distant past that his company’s blockbuster drug Advair/Seretide, used for the treatment of asthma, would continue to remain a major product, despite losing US patent in end 2010. Witty thought so considering the intricate technology involved in making its high tech inhalation drug delivery system with exacting precision.

Technology based entry barrier:

Although, Advair/Seretide is a respiratory inhalation drug, it is not quite like a typical aerosol inhaler consisting of a pressurized canister filled with liquid medicine formulation. In such system, as the canister is compressed, the liquid inside comes out as a spray that is breathable in an amount as required for desirable clinical efficacy for the patients.

With the application of complex technology, Advair/Seretide was formulated not as a liquid, but as pre-determined fixed dose combination of powders that patients inhale into their respiratory tracts with a device called ‘Diskus’, which involves a complex and difficult to copy inhaler technology with a long patent life.

This precision technology was expected to create the requisite entry barrier for generic equivalents of this important medicine.

“Diskus” patent to continue:

It is important to note, though Advair/Seretide had gone off patent in end 2010, the patent protection for the “Diskus” device that dispenses the powder version of the fixed dose drugs combination, continues till 2016. For the inhaler device that dispenses the aerosol version of the same drugs, the patent remains valid until 2025.

New USFDA guidance:

Keeping these factors in mind, the USFDA in its latest guidance has clearly enunciated the characteristics that an inhaler should have, including a similar size and shape to Diskus. This new USFDA guidance for inhaled drugs, like Advair/Seretide, now requires only “relatively basic” preclinical tests and a short clinical trial.

Many believe that this new guidance is mainly to ensure that other generic devices also qualify for the GSK’s asthma drug combo, after its patent expiry.

Nevertheless a challenging task:

Despite this new USFDA guidance for inhaled drugs, some large generic manufacturers apprehended, even way back in 2010, that they doubt whether it will be possible for them to adequately replicate Advair/Seretide to meet the stringent “substitution” requirements of the USFDA on generics. This is exactly what Witty had envisaged earlier.

Almost two years after its patent expiry, in October 2012, the world’s largest generic drug maker Teva also announced that the company does not expect to see true substitutes for Advair/Seretide before 2018.

No immediate sales impact post-patent expiry:

As a result, in 2012, even a couple of years after its patent expiry, Advair/Seretide could successfully weather the impending storm, though GSK reported a lackluster overall business performance. The brand at that time was virtually immune to substitution threats from generic equivalents. The key reason being, as stated above, much unlike a patented chemical drug substance, the ‘Diskus’ system of the GSK inhaler is a hell of a task to copy by meeting the regulatory requirements of substitution.

In 2013, close to three years after its patent expiry, Advair/Seretide ranked fourth within the top 10 global best-selling drugs of that year, clocking annual revenue of US $8.25 billion.

The first competition:

In the midst of all these, the first generic equivalent of Advair/Serevent with a new inhalation device, carrying a name AirFluSal Forspiro from the Sandoz unit of Novartis, started warming up to obtain regulatory approval from several countries within the European Union (EU).

The product was first approved in Denmark on December, 2013 with subsequent marketing authorizations received in Germany, Sweden, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Norway.

The heat started being felt now:

The overall position of the brand started changing thereafter. According to published reports, sales trend of Advair/Seretide in Europe and other markets are on the decline in 2014. In Europe, the drop was around 3 percent and in the US around 19 percent in the last quarter, due to a combined impact of many factors.

According to Bloomberg, the sales of Advair/Seretide are expected to drop from US$8.25 billion in 2013 to US$5.9 billion in 2016 with the entry of generics.

A large and growing market to invest into:

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in every 10 seconds, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) that includes conditions such as chronic bronchitis and emphysema kills one person globally. It is expected to be the third leading cause of death worldwide by 2030. However, though more number of people suffers from asthma globally, its mortality rate is still much less, WHO says.

Bloomberg estimates that COPD market, including asthma, is expected to reach over US$30 billion by 2018.

Cipla came next crossing the ‘technology hurdle’:

Though the leader in the global generic market – Teva, expressed its inability to introduce the generic version of Advair/Seretide before 2018, this month, the Indian pharma major Cipla introduced its version of the product in two European countries, just next to Novartis. Consequently, Cipla demonstrated its ability to overcome the technological hurdle of the product faster than most others and mastering the intricate NDDS technology in record time, with precision.

The Cipla product is named as ‘Serroflo’ in Germany and ‘Salmeterol/Fluticasone Cipla’ in Sweden. As reported in the media quoting Cipla Chairman Dr. Yusuf Hamied, the product has also been launched in Croatia. By now, Cipla has obtained regulatory approvals of this product in 10 countries in total, with an approval pending in the GSK’s own domestic turf, the United Kingdom (UK). Other country-wise launches in Europe would probably take place much before the end of 2014, according to Dr. Hamied.

The product is expected to be launched in the US in the next three to four year’s time, though one media report mentioned about its 2015 launch in that market. Dr. Hamied also said that his company is now planning its first-ever manufacturing plant in America, which might focus on producing HIV medicines.

On a conservative estimate, the market analysts expect Cipla to generate around US$50 million in sales from the EU markets by 2016 and around US$110 million by 2018, as the company gains increasing market access with not more than 4-5 generic competitors competing in this segment.

Be that as it may, getting regulatory approval for launch of a generic version of Advair/Seretide in the regulated markets, by itself, is a huge achievement of technological prowess that Cipla has demonstrated, yet again.

Not too many generic competition expected:

Because of high quality technological requirements to develop a replaceable generic version of the GSK product, not too much competition is expected in this segment.

Thus far, another global generic drug major Mylan is expected to file for a generic version of Advair/Seretide in the US by the third quarter of 2015 for a 2016 launch. Besides Cipla and Novartis, Mylan, Teva and Actavis are expected come out with the generic version of this drug.

Opportunities in ‘difficult to copy’ drugs:

According to a recent ‘RnR Market Research Report’, over 1,400 drugs with New Drug Delivery System (NDDS) have since been approved globally. This includes inhalation devices too.

The oral drugs contribute the largest share of the overall NDDS market with over 52 percent of the total pie. This segment is expected to attain a turnover of over US$90 billion by 2016 at a CAGR of 11 percent. The injectable new drug delivery market is expected to reach a turnover of over US $29billion by 2015, according to this report.

I have deliberated this subject in one of my earlier blog posts titled. “Moving Up The Generic Pharma Value Chain”.

Another high tech area – biosimilar drugs:

As the high priced biologic drugs of the innovator companies go off patent, large molecule biosimilar drugs, involving high technology, would emerge as another lucrative growth opportunity for the generic players having requisite wherewithal.

Recombinant vaccines, erythropoietin, recombinant insulin, monoclonal antibody, interferon alpha, granulocyte cell stimulating factor like products are now being manufactured by a number of domestic biotech companies. Some of the Indian companies that have already entered into the biosimilar segment are Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Lupin, Biocon, Panacea Biotech, Wockhardt, Glenmark, Emcure, Bharat Biotech, Serum Institute, Hetero, Intas and Reliance Life Sciences, besides others.

The ultimate objective of all these Indian companies is to get regulatory approval of their respective biosimilar products in the US and the EU either on their own or through collaborative initiatives.

Overall improvement in the quality of ANDA filings:

In the last few years, overall quality of ANDA filings of the domestic Indian pharma players has also improved significantly. Their regulatory filing schedules now include many complex molecules, injectibles, oral contraceptives, ophthalmic preparations, inhalers/other drug delivery systems and biosimilars, beside Para IV/FTFs. All these are now contributing a growing share in their new product initiatives for the regulated markets.

Conclusion:

In the largest pharma market of the world – the United States, global generic companies are increasingly facing cutthroat price competition with steep price erosion, registering mixed figures of business performance and growth.

However, a new trend is fast emerging. Even when global innovator companies are including increasing number of difficult to copy medicines in their product portfolio, some pharma players are reaping a rich harvest by moving up the value chain with the generic versions of those products, post patent expiry. These copycats offer much higher margin than non-differentiated generics.

Some Indian generic companies too have started focusing on building value added, difficult to manufacture, and technology intensive generic product portfolios in various therapy areas. DRL is reportedly all set to take its complex generic drug Fondaparinux sodium injection to Canada and two other emerging markets.

Those Indian pharma companies, which would be able to develop a robust product portfolio of complex generics and other differentiated formulations for the global market, would now be much better placed in positioning themselves significantly ahead of the rest, both in terms of top and the bottom line performance.

The myth, as epitomized in the good old saying, “Patent expiry matters less for difficult to copy drugs”, seems to be partly true in delaying entry of generics immediately after the end of the monopoly period, at least, for now. However, I reckon, this gap of delay would eventually get much reduced, if not eliminated altogether, as we move on. Armed with cutting edge technology Cipla has almost busted the myth, as it came close second to Novartis with the launch of a complex generic equivalent of Advair/Seretide in the EU and other markets.

Pharma majors of the country, such as, DRL, Cipla, Lupin and Biocon, to name a few, are taking great strides, setting examples for many others to emulate and excel in this area. The groundswell has already begun for a long haul global journey of the Indian pharma into the El Dorado of high tech generics fetching higher rewards.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Sets 2013, Dawns 2014: Top 7 Pharma Developments

Posted on December 31, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Wish You Good Health, Happiness, Success and Prosperity in 2014

In this article I shall focus on ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’, both while ‘Looking Back to 2013′ and also during my ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′.

Looking Back to 2013:

While looking back, the ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’ unfolded in India during 2013, in my opinion, are as follows:

1. Supreme Court judgment on Glivec:

The landmark Supreme Court judgment on the Glivec case has vindicated, though much to the dismay of pharma MNCs, the need to strike a right balance between encouraging and protecting innovation, including incremental ones, and the public health interest of India.

2. DPCO 2013:

Following the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy (NPPP) of December 2012, the new Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013) signaled a significant departure from the decades old systems of arriving at both the ‘span’ and also the ‘methodology’ of drug price control in India. However, its implementation has been rather tardy as on today.

As a result, at the very beginning of the process of its effective roll-out, the new DPCO faltered badly. It created unprecedented complications and dead-locks not just for the pharmaceutical companies and the trade, but for the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), as well, which has not been able to announce the new ceiling prices for at least 100 essential drugs, even 8 months after notification of this order.

The pharma companies and the NGOs have already taken this policy to the court, though for different reasons. The rationale for the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) 2011 has also been questioned by many along with a strong demand for its immediate review.

Thus much awaited DPCO 2013 is still charting on a slippery ground.

3. India, China revoked 4 pharma patents:

In the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) arena many National Governments have now started asserting themselves against the prolonged hegemony of the Western World pressing for most stringent patent regime across the globe, at times even surreptitiously. Such assertions of these countries signal a clear tilt in the balance, favoring patients’ health interest rather than hefty gains in business profits, much to the delight of majority of world population.

Revocation of four drug patents by India and China within a fortnight during July-August 2013 period has thus raised many eyebrows, especially within the pharma Multinational Corporations (MNCs). In this short period, India has revoked three patents and China one.

While these unexpected and rather quick developments are probably double whammy for the pharma MNCs operating in India and China, a future trend would possibly emerge as soon as one is able to connect the evolving dots.

4. Supreme Court intervened in Clinical trials (CT):

With a damning stricture to the Indian Drug Regulator, the Supreme Court, in response to a PIL filed by the NGO Swasthya Adhikar Manch, came out heavily on the way Clinical Trials (CTs) are approved and conducted in the country.

Breaking the nexus decisively between a section of the powerful pharma lobby groups and the drug regulator, as highlighted even in the Parliamentary Committee report, the Ministry of Health, as reported to the Supreme Court, is now in the process of quickly putting in place a robust and transparent CT mechanism in India.

This well thought-out new system, besides ensuring patients’ safety and fair play for all, is expected to have the potential to help reaping a rich economic harvest through creation of a meaningful and vibrant CT industry in India, simultaneously benefitting millions of patients, in the years ahead.

5. US-FDA/UK-MHRA drug import bans:

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data, by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have culminated into several import bans of drugs manufactured in those units. All these incidents have just not invited disgrace to the country in this area, but also prompted other national regulators to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

This despicable mindset of the concerned key players, if remains unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming bright opportunities.

The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies.

6. Pharma FDI revisited in India:

After a series of inter-ministerial consultations, the Government of India has maintained 100 percent FDI in pharma brownfield projects through FIPB route. However, removal of the ‘non-compete’ clause in such agreements has made a significant difference in the pharma M&A landscape.

7. ‘No payment for prescriptions’:

Unprecedented acknowledgement and the decision of GSK’s global CEO for not making payments to any doctor, either for participating or speaking in seminars/conferences to influence prescription decision in favor of its brands, would indeed be considered as bold and laudable. This enunciation, if implemented in letter and spirit by all other players of the industry, could trigger a paradigm shift in the prescription demand generation process for pharmaceuticals brands.

Crystal Gazing 2014:

While ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′, once again, the following ‘Top 7 (most likely) Pharma Developments’, besides many brighter growth opportunities, come to the fore:

1. Public Interest Litigation (PIL) now pending before the Supreme Court challenging DPCO 2013 may put the ‘market based pricing’ concept in jeopardy, placing the pharma price control system back to square one.

2. The possibility of revision of NLEM 2011, as many essential drugs and combinations have still remained outside its purview, appears to be imminent. This decision, if taken, would bring other important drugs also under price control.

3. Universal Health Care (UHC) related pilot projects are likely to be implemented pan-India along with ‘free distribution of medicines’ from Government hospitals and health centers in 2014. Along side, more Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives may come up in the healthcare space improving access to quality healthcare to more number of patients.

4. With the Supreme Court interventions in response to the pending PILs, more stringent regulatory requirements for CT, Product Marketing approvals, Pricing of Patented Medicines and Ethical Marketing practices may come into force.

5. Possibilities of more number of patent challenges with consequent revocations and grant of several Compulsory Licenses (CL) for exorbitantly priced drugs in life-threatening disease areas like, cancer, loom large. At the same time, between 2013 and 2018, US$ 230 billion of sales would be at risk from patent expirations, offering a great opportunity to the Indian generic players to boost their exports in the developed markets of the world.

6. More consolidation within the pharmaceutical industry may take place with valuation still remaining high.

7. Overall pharma IPR scenario in India is expected to remain as robust and patient friendly as it is today, adding much to the worry of the MNCs and relief to the patients, in addition to the generic industry. More number of countries are expected to align with India in this important area.

Conclusion:

The year 2013, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India, was indeed eventful. The ‘Top Seven’ that I have picked-up, out of various interesting developments during the year, could in many ways throw-open greater challenges for 2014.

My ‘Crystal Gazing 2014’, would challenge the pharma players to jettison their old and traditional business mindsets, carving out new, time-specific, robust and market savvy strategic models to effectively harvest newer opportunities for growth.

That said, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to thrive in India with gusto, including the MNCs, mainly because of immense potential that the domestic market offers in its every conceivable business verticals, propelled by continuous high growth trend in the domestic consumption of medicines, excepting some minor aberrations.

The New Year 2014, I reckon, would herald yet another interesting paradigm for the pharma industry. A paradigm that would throw open many lucrative opportunities for growth, both global and local, and at the same time keep churning out different sets of rapidly evolving issues, requiring more innovative honed corporate skill-sets for their speedy redressal, as the time keeps ticking.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Pharma Horizon: Cloud, Rainbow And Smear

Posted on December 9, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Some recent papers contemplated that the patent cliff for blockbuster drugs has already reached the zenith and early signs of recovery should be visible from 2013 onwards. However, from analysis of the currently available data, contrary to the above belief, I reckon, the downtrend in global pharma is far from over, not just yet.

One of the telltale signs of this slump is near-term patent expiry of today’s blockbuster drugs, the impact of which will continue to keep the global pharma sky overcast with clouds for some more time, especially in absence of replaceable equivalents. Interestingly, on the flip side, a beautiful rainbow, as it were, also takes shape in the horizon, ushering-in a hope to a large number of patients for improved access to newer drugs, just as it does to the generic players for accelerating business growth.

That’s the good part of it, though for the generic drug industry. However, the bad part of the emerging scenario gives rise to a lurking fear of gloom and doom, emanating from self-created evitable smears and taints, blended in vessels of despicable mindsets.

Clouds:

While having a glimpse at that following table, the underlying impact of the dark clouds looming large on the global pharma horizon cannot just be wished away:

Total Patent Expiry:

Year	Value US$ Billion
2015	66
2014	34
2013	28
2012	55
Total	183

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

Thus, the negative impact from sales lost to patent expiry of blockbuster drugs of today, though declined from US$ 55 billion in 2012 to US$ 28 billion in 2013, the same would start climbing-up again to US$ 66 billion in 2015.

If we take a look at the product-wise details, the picture pans out as under:

Top 10 ‘Patent Expiry’ in 2014:

No.	Brand	Company	Disease	Sales 2012 US$ Million	Expiry
1.	Copaxone	Teva	MultipleSclerosis	3996	May 2014
2.	Nexium	AstraZeneca	Acid peptic	3994	May 2014
3.	Micardis/HCT	BoehringerIngelheim	Hypertension	2217	Jan 2014
4.	Sandostatin LAR	Novartis	Cancer	1512	June 2014
5.	Exforge/HCT	Novartis	Hypertension	1352	Oct 2014
6.	Nasonex	Merck	Resp. Allergy	1268	Jan 2014
7.	Trilipix	Abbvie	Anti-lipid	1098	Jan 2014
8.	Evista	Eli Lilly	Osteoporosis	1010	Mar 2014
9.	Renagel	Sanofi	Chronic Kidney Disease	861	Sep. 2014
10.	Restasis	Allergan	Chronic Dry Eye	792	May 2014

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

The above figures, therefore, do reinforce the hypothesis that the following factors would continue to make the best brains of global pharma burning the midnight oil in search of sustainable strategic blueprints, at least, for some more time:

- Mostly, high growth emerging markets of the world are generic drugs driven

- Increasing cost containment pressure of Governments and/or other payor

- Challenges from Intellectual Property (IP) and Market Access related issues

- Declining R&D productivity

- Shift in overall focus for new drugs on expensive biologics

- Markets turning more Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA)

Current strategy to deliver shareholder-value not sustainable:

Since last several years, one has witnessed, despite slowing down of sales growth, big pharma players, by and large, have not failed in delivering impressive shareholder returns. This has been possible mainly due to ruthless cost cutting across the board, restructuring of operational framework and taking measures like, increase in dividends and share repurchases.

These strategic measures, though laudable to keep the head above water, are just not sustainable over a period of time sans strong cashﬂow.

Thus, for a long haul, robust and consistent business growth with commensurate impact on the bottom-line generating smooth cashflow, is imperative for all these companies.

In this difficult ball game of developing sustainable cutting-edge strategies at an equally challenging time, the consolidation process within the industry would gain further momentum, where only the fittest corporations, led by great corporate brains, would manage to survive and thrive.

However, who all would successfully be able to squarely face the moments of truth, triumphantly seizing the opportunities frozen in time, in the fast changing paradigm of a seemingly VUCA world, is not more than a matter of speculation now.

The Rainbow:

As stated above, while this canopy formed with dark clouds keeps looming large at the global pharma horizon, a beautiful rainbow is simultaneously seen taking shape for the domestic Indian drug manufacturers to cash-on with well-orchestrated strategic measures. One of the critical success requirements for this sprint, is touching the tape in the finishing line to become first to introduce generic versions of the patent expired drugs, especially in the US market.

Indian pharma players have already demonstrated in the past that they do have the wherewithal of making such rare opportunities meaningful by offering affordable new drugs of high quality standards to a large number of patients, while simultaneously accelerating growth of their respective business operations.

Proven acumen even in biologics:

India has recently proven its acumen in the area of biologics too, by developing a biosimilar version of the complex biologic drug – Trastuzumab (Herceptin) of Roche, used for the treatment of breast cancer, and that too in a record time.

As is known to many, earlier in 2013 Roche decided not to defend its patents on Herceptin in India, which reportedly recorded local sales of about US$ 21 million in 2012. Many people opined at that time, it would not be easy for any company to develop biosimilar version of Trastuzumab, mainly due to the complexity involved in its clinical development. Hence, some diehards kept arguing, Roche would not be commercially impacted much for taking the above decision, at least in the near to mid term.

Surprising almost everybody, Biocon and its MNC partner Mylan not only developed an affordable biosimilar version of Trastuzumab successfully, but also got its marketing approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), thereby immensely benefitting a large number of breast cancer patients in India and hopefully even beyond.

Keeping ‘Eye on the ball’?

Details of ANDA status from the USFDA source probably indicate that several Indian players have started gearing up to move in that direction at a brisk pace, keeping their eyes well fixed on the ball.

The following table further indicates that in 2012 India ranked second, after the United States (US) in terms of number of ANDA approvals and in 2013 till October India ranks number one, overtaking the United States (US):

ANDA’s Granted in 2012 and upto October 2013):

Country	ANDA 2012	ANDA (October 2013)	Total Since 2007
United States	183	119	1191
India	196	138	993
Switzerland	20	12	134
Israel	28	13	133
Canada	27	13	116
Germany	20	6	107
UK	11	15	95
China	7	10	29

Smears:

Unfortunately, just out side the frame of the above kaleidoscope, one can see large spots of self created slimy smears, which can make the ‘Rainbow’ irrelevant, maintaining the horizon as cloudy even for the Indian generic players.

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have just not invited disgrace for the country in this area, but also reportedly prompted regulators from other nations trying to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

Such despicable mindsets of the concerned key players, if remain unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming opportunities.

We have one such ready example before us and that too is not an old one. The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

Another report of November 2013 states, “The Drug Controller General of India has ordered Sun Pharmaceutical, the country’s largest drug maker by market capitalization to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, a move that could slow down the company’s regulatory filings in India and possibly overseas as well.”

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies. According to a recent report Strides Arcolab will not get US$ 250 million of the US$ 1.75 billion anticipated from the sale of its injectable drugs unit to Mylan Inc unless regulatory concerns at Agila Specialities in Bangalore are resolved.

Thus the smears though for now are confined to a few large manufacturing units of Indian Pharma, including some located overseas, may eventually play the spoil sport, trashing all hopes seen through the rainbow in the bins of shame.

Conclusion:

In the balance of probability, I believe, the clouds of uncertainty would continue to loom large over the global pharma, at least, till 2015.

However, in the midst of it, heralds a ‘never before opportunity’ for Indian pharma to cash on the early fruits of forthcoming patent expiries of today’s blockbuster drugs, not just for them, but for patients at large.

Already demonstrated capabilities of the homegrown players, trigger expectations of making it happen. The encouraging trend of grant of ANDAs in the US further reinforces this belief.

Despite all these, a lurking fear does creep in. This evitable fear finds its root in repeated fraudulent behavior of some Indian drug manufacturers, seriously compromising with cGMP standards of global drug regulators, including lying and falsification of data generated, thus playing a spoil sport by ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’, as it were.

That said, the question to ponder now is: In the ‘Pharma Horizon’ what would ultimately prevail in the short to medium term, especially in the Indian context – Clouds, The Rainbow or Smears?

By: Tapan J. Ray

In the Wonderland of Pharma Generics: Some Steps In, Some Steps Over the Line

Posted on June 10, 2013 by Tapan Ray

To scale-up access to healthcare, especially for the marginalized population of any country, greater access to affordable generic drugs will always remain fundamental, besides improving healthcare infrastructure and its delivery mechanism.

Thus, there should be a robust mechanism across the world to facilitate quick entry of cheaper generic equivalents immediately after patent expiry of the original molecule. Any attempt to step over the line, blocking entry of generics surreptitiously by vested interests must be brought to justice sooner. Such measures assume increasing importance, as without availability of newer generics, unmet medical needs of the most vulnerable section of the society cannot be met effectively by any country.

Newer generics will play a critical role even in the Indian context. Besides many other diseases, India is already known as the diabetic capital of the world with an estimated population of 70 million diabetics by 2020.

Greater access to treatment for such chronic ailments and many other dreaded diseases with increasing trend of prevalence, like cancer, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer and autoimmune disorders, besides common tropical diseases, would also depend on the availability of cheaper and newer generic medicines.

Global innovators stepping into generics business in emerging markets:

Sniffing the growth opportunities in the generics business in an environment of patent cliff, even many hard-nosed innovator companies have been entering into this business either through local acquisitions or through various collaborative arrangements. Examples of some of these companies are as follows:

Novartis entered in generic business with its Sandoz arm
Pfizer with collaborative arrangements in India with Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals (India) in March 2009 and with Strides Arcolab in January 2010
Daiichi Sankyo acquired Ranbaxy of India
GlaxoSmithKline acquired 16 percent stake of Aspen Pharmacare of South Africa, Laboratorios Phoenix in in Argentina and signed a development and commercialization license with Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL)
Sanofi acquired Shantha Biotechnics and Universal Medicare of India, Zentiva in Czech Republic, Laboratorios Kendrick in Mexico, Medley in Brazil and Helvepharm in Switzerland
Abbott Laboratories acquired the pharmaceutical formulations business of Piramal Healthcare and collaborated with Zydus Cadila

A pro-generic initiative in the west:

Ireland’s parliament has recently passed a bill on pro-generic initiatives. Under this new law pharmacists will be permitted to substitute branded medicines, which have been designated by the Irish Medicines Board (IMB) as interchangeable.

Currently in Ireland, if a specific brand of medicine is prescribed for a patient, the pharmacist must supply only that brand.

Some steps over the line blocking entry of generics:

Interestingly, to continue marketing high priced innovative drugs even after patent expiry, attempts are still being made to block entry of cheaper generics through equally innovative means by stepping over the line.

On April 15, 2013 ‘The New York Times’ reported several such cases of the recent past in the United States. The report gives details of the players involved in each of these cases.

Prompted by these unfortunate incidents, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) of the US investigated into the matter involving the American drug companies and charged many of them with ‘anticompetitive behavior’. These practices are no longer new and are being followed by some companies over a long period of time.

One of the latest and elegant, yet a very simple strategy reportedly works as follows:

Generic drug makers need samples of patented drugs to generate required regulatory data to obtain marketing approval for launch after the molecules go off patent.
Some innovator companies (named in the report) refuse to sell their patented drugs to generic manufacturers for development of generic equivalents.
Traditionally, the generic drug makers purchase their requirements from the concerned wholesalers.
However, because of safety concerns, drugs are now mostly sold with restrictions on who can buy them.
This compels the generic manufacturers to ask the innovator companies for samples of the patented products.
Unfortunately, mostly they get a negative answer.
In defense, innovator companies explain that they are ensuring any possible improper use of their innovative drugs and also say that no law binds any company to do business with another.

It is alleged that the companies, which most aggressively pursue such measures are those with drugs nearing end of their patent life.

The report indicates that the federal regulators in USA do consider this strategy of creative interpretation of drug safety laws, is illegal.

The news item also indicates that most of these drugs are for serious illnesses like various types of cancers, multiple sclerosis and other rare diseases costing US$ 79,000 to US$ 229,000 a year to patients.

More instances:

Another recent report highlights that European Union’s anti-trust regulator will fine two European pharmaceutical Company and seven other drug makers for blocking generic drugs against “pay-for-delay” deals. Ranbaxy’s name also features in this report.

The report also states that brand name companies, especially in the western world, have been defending “pay-for-delay” deals to extend patents and avoid costly litigation.

It reports that in a typical case, a generic rival may challenge the patent of a brand-name competitor, which then pays the rival a sum of money to drop its challenge. Interestingly, defenders of the practice call it a legitimate means to resolve patent litigation.

A recent debate:

Another interesting development has come up with the pain killer drug OxyContin of Purdue Pharma, which went off patent in April 2013.

Just before patent expiry, Purdue Pharma reportedly reformulated and pulled out its previous version of OxyContin, without abuse-deterrent measures, from the market giving reasons related to safety and efficacy of the drug.

In the notice to the Federal Register, US-FDA reportedly said, “Compared to original OxyContin, reformulated OxyContin has an increased ability to resist crushing, breaking, and dissolution using a variety of tools and solvents.” The regulator, consequently, barred the generic companies from making copies of the older versions of OxyContin without tamper-resistant qualities.

This development, will not allow drug manufacturers like Teva and Impax to make and launch generic equivalents of older versions of OxyContin.

This report also says that similar request has been filed with US-FDA by Endo Health Solutions Inc. for safety of its old painkiller drug Opana, which could force the generic version of the drug manufactured by Impax’s going out of the market in favor of high priced medicine.

On this development the Generic Pharmaceutical Industry in America has reportedly commented, “Blocking generic drugs could mean leaving behind the millions of patients who stand to benefit from access to lower-cost versions of OxyContin”. Some experts have also expressed apprehension that such a precedent would likely to encourage many others to work for similar safety related changes to extend patent life of a product.

Having said that, it appears to be a complex regulatory issue where the possibility of drug abuse has to be carefully weighed against the benefits of low cost generic entry for greater access to patients.

‘Disparaging’ generic drugs:

Reuters , quoting the French Competition Authority, recently reported from Paris that a global pharmaceutical major has “created a doubt over the quality and the safety of generics, without any proven basis.”

As a result, the report says, the French Competition Authority has fined the drug maker 40.6 million euros (US$52.7 million) for “disparaging” generic competition.

The news report further indicates that this decision followed a complaint of Teva Sante filed in 2010 against communication practices of the branded molecule discouraging the use of its generic versions by the doctors.

The innovator company may appeal against this decision.

European Commission found similar practices:

It is interesting to note that in 2009, the European Commission also reportedly found similar practices, including ‘pay-for-delay deals’ which not only adversely impacted competition, but also delayed entry of cheaper generic drugs into the EU markets.

That said, entry of generic drugs is still not speedy in all therapy areas. In this context, a study titled, “Drug patent expirations and the speed of generic entry,” concluded that the generic industry mostly target chronic drug markets with high turnover products and entry of a generic drug is also greatly influenced by the existing branded substitutes in the marketplace.

Importance of the Indian generic drugs:

According to BCC Research, the global generic drug market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 percent over five years registering a turnover of US$ 169 billion in 2014.

In this market, India is now the world’s biggest provider of low priced high quality generic medicines to the developing world. The experts opine in various context, the world must ensure that this vibrant hub of generic drugs does not get adversely impacted at any cost for any vested interest.

According to Pharmexcil pharma exports from India stood at an impressive US$ 14.6 billion during 2012-13 compared to US$ 13.2 billion in 2011-12. Indian Ministry of Commerce had unfolded a ‘Strategy Plan’ to take it to US$ 25 Bn by 2013-14, which currently appears to be a very ambitious objective.

Taken together, India and China now reportedly manufacture over 80 percent of the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) of all drugs used in the United States.

As reported by BMJ from 2003 to 2008, in various programs supported by donor organizations like the Global Fund, generic drugs from India contributed over 80 percent of the medicines used to treat AIDS, including 91 percent of pediatric antiretroviral products and 89 percent of the adult nucleoside and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor markets.

In addition, India is considered to be an extremely valuable source of high quality affordable generic drugs for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular conditions, infections and other non-infectious chronic diseases and conditions.

Allegations against Indian generic drugs:

In a situation is like these, some aberrations within the Indian generic space like, what has happened currently with Ranbaxy are, at times, made universal and blown out of proportion, probably on behalf the interested players to paint the domestic pharmaceutical industry, in general, black. There is no doubt, however, all such cases of fraud on patients, wherever these take place must be brought to justice.

The issue arises when such instances are grossly generalized. For example, an American Enterprise Institute report titled, “Cheap Indian generic drugs: Not such good value after all?” quoting US-FDA, highlights that “Pharmaceutical companies in developing countries are increasingly falsifying data about the quality of their medicines.”

It further alleges, Indian producers in particular strive to reduce costs by substituting cheaper ingredients or skimping on good manufacturing practices, and often patients and well-informed pharmacists alike will overlook the flaws.

The article laments, “Indian companies and regulators simply deny there is any difference in product quality between their products and those made in the West.”

Indian perspective to the allegation:

In response to such allegations a very recent FICCI –Heal 2012 publication titled “Universal Healthcare: Dream or Reality?” articulated as follows:

“Selected reporting of malpractices in healthcare has painted a poor picture of the sector. However, the instances of misconduct/corruption are miniscule compared to public perception.”

Some important campaigns in favor of generics:

However, a publication from ‘Global Pharmacy Canada’ says,

“Generic medications are just as safe and effective as their brand-name equivalents. All the drugs supplied by the pharmacies we deal with are government approved. The manufacturers they buy from follow strict World Health Organization (WHO) standards for Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP). One or several of the following agencies have approved these manufacturing facilities:

Food and Drug Administration (FDA), USA
Medicines Control Agency (MCA), UK
Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), Australia
Medicines Control Council (MCC), South Africa
National Institute of Pharmacy (NIP), Hungary
Pharmaceutical Inspection Convention (PIC), Germany
State Institute for the Control of Drugs, Slovak Republic
Food and Drug Administration (FDA), India”

Similarly USFDA comments on generic drugs as follows:

“Generic drugs are important options that allow greater access to health care for all Americans. They are copies of brand-name drugs and are the same as those brand name drugs in dosage form, safety, strength, and route of administration, quality, performance characteristics and intended use.”

“Health care professionals and consumers can be assured that FDA approved generic drug products have met the same rigid standards as the innovator drug. All generic drugs approved by FDA have the same high quality, strength, purity and stability as brand-name drugs. And, the generic manufacturing, packaging, and testing sites must pass the same quality standards as those of brand name drugs.”

The growth drivers:

According to a recent study, following are the key growth drivers of the global generic pharmaceutical industry:

Governments’ and payers’ need to contain rapidly increasing healthcare expenditures

A growing middle-class in emerging markets

Longer life expectancy

A large number of patent expiries for innovator drugs, many of them are mega blockbusters

All these have contributed to the growth of global generic industry from less than US$ 50 billion in 2004 to over $80 billion by 2011 improving global patient-access to medicines significantly.

The report also says, if a more general definition of off-patent medicines is used to define generics, estimates have placed the size of the industry at closer to $150 billion. In the United States alone, generic sales have more than tripled since 2000 and now exceed $51 billion in 2011.

Encourage speedy entry of generics:

Even the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in a report titled “Generic Drug Entry Prior to Patent Expiration: An FTC Study,” stated as follows:

“Expenditures on pharmaceutical products continue to grow and often outpace expenditures for other consumer products. Pharmaceutical expenditures concern not only consumers, but government payers, private health plans, and employers as well. Generic drugs offer opportunities for significant cost savings over brand-name drug products.”

In its report FTC recommended that generic drugs should not experience delays when entering the market. The Commission also highlighted that both pharmaceutical innovation and cheaper generic drugs bring enormous benefits to patients.

Conclusion:

It is widely recognized that generic medicines play a key role to improve access to medicines to a very large section of population of the world.

Currently, important policy measures taken by the countries like, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Holland, Denmark and Germany for increasing use of generic drug have started helping them to achieve this objective. At the same time, such policies are helping them to garner significant savings in their respective healthcare cost.

Out of pocket expenditure towards healthcare being around 80 percent in India, un-interrupted availability of high quality affordable generic medicines will help the patients significantly. This should, no doubt, need to be ably supported by the Government by rolling-out much awaited ‘The Universal Healthcare’ proposal of the High Level Expert Group (HLEG) appointed by the Planning Commission of India, sooner.

To improve demand of generic drugs, the prescribers too need to be influenced by the regulators, as has happened in many countries of the world.

Finally, the requirement to maintain high quality standards for generic medicines should be non-negotiable and continuously be kept under careful vigil of the drug regulators.

The complex dynamics of the global generic drugs market are indeed intriguing. It is indeed a ‘Wonderland’, as it were.

Be that as it may, in this wonderland of pharma generics, as some continue to step in and some others continue to step over the line, it is also important to understand how this industry caters to the healthcare needs of billions of poor and needy.

Respective Governments across the world should facilitate speedy entry of more number of newer generic drugs in the market. Simultaneously, the drug regulators will require bringing to justice to all those forces, which will attempt blocking or delaying entry of generics, causing great harm to a vast majority of patients across the world.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Explore the Emerging Markets with the ‘Wings of Courage’.

Posted on March 7, 2011 by Tapan Ray

Overall growth rate of the global pharmaceutical industry is currently hovering around 5%. Similar situation has been prevailing since last several years. There is no indication of acceleration of growth rate from any of the top 3 regions of the world namely the USA, EU and Japan, at least in the near future.

According to IMS, the global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow around 5%-7% in 2011 to US$ 880 billion, as compared to around 4%-5% of 2010.

The reasons of the slowdown, I have discussed several times in the past through this column and do not intend to dwell on that, at least, in this Article.

The Emerging Markets of the World:

Unlike developed markets, emerging pharmaceuticals market of the world, like, India, China, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey and Korea, are showing a robust growth rate, quite commensurate to the ascending GDP growth trend of these countries.

According to IMS, the projected CAGR trend of the developed and Emerging Markets for the period of 2007–11, are as follows:

Mature Markets	CAGR 2007-11	Emerging Markets	CAGR 2007-11
USA	4-7%	China	13-16%
Canada	6-9%	Korea	8-11%
Japan	2-5%	Brazil	9-12%
Germany	3-6%	Russia	17-20%
France	2-5%	Mexico	6-9%
Italy	3-6%	India	11-14%
UK	4-7%	Turkey	9-12%
Spain	5-8%

(Source IMS)

Branded Generics/Generics are now key growth drivers in the Emerging Markets:

It is worth noting, unlike the developed markets of the world, where high priced branded patented drugs drive the value growth of the industry, in the emerging markets, where investment towards R&D is relatively less, branded generic and the generic products are the key growth drivers.

Such an evolving situation has prompted large global majors like Pfizer, GSK, Sanofi-aventis, Daiichi Sankyo and Abbott Laboratories, to name a few, either to acquire large generic or Biosimilar drug companies or ink various interesting and win-win collaborative deals, in these markets, to maintain their respective business growth with the branded generic and generic products in the fast growing emerging markets of the world.

Will Emerging Markets be lucrative enough only with Generic and Branded Generic products, in the long run?

Some experts do feel that, in the long run, the emerging pharmaceutical markets, like India, may not prove to be as lucrative to the global pharmaceutical majors.

The key reason being, around 80% ‘out of pocket’ expenditure for medicines in India, could be the key impediment to expanded access to higher priced innovative medicines, in general. Such a situation could seriously limit the success of branded patented drugs in India following their global strategy, compared to the developed markets of the world. The issue of affordability of such medicines will continue to be a key factor for their improved access in India, if the ground reality remains unchanged. Top line business growth only with Generics and Branded Generics in the emerging markets may not be sustainable enough, in the long run, for the innovator companies to adequately fund their R&D initiatives to meet the unmet needs of the patients.

The other school of thought:

The other school of thought, however, argues that ‘out-of pocket” characteristic of India is indeed more sustainable in terms of cost containment pressure, than those markets where the government or health insurance companies cover a large part of the medical expenses for the population.

Every year around 1% of population comes above the poverty line in India together with a growing ‘middle income’ segment with increasing purchasing power. This cycle, in turn, will keep fueling the growth of healthcare space, contributing significantly to the progress of the pharmaceutical industry of the country.

‘One size fits all’ global strategy unlikely to succeed in the ‘Emerging Markets’:

In my view ‘One size fits all’ type of strategy, especially in the area of pricing, is unlikely to succeed in the emerging markets of the world. Pharmaceutical Companies will need to have different types of ‘tailor made’ strategic approaches for markets like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Mexico, Korea and Turkey.

Pricing Strategy will be a key determinant to success:

For better access to medicines, ‘differential pricing strategy’ has been the stated policy of large global companies like, GSK and MSD. If this trend continues, a win-win situation could be created, when unmet needs of a large number of patient groups could be met with innovative medicines, paving the way for the innovator companies to register a healthy, both top and bottom line, business growth in these markets to effectively fund their R&D projects, besides others.

The most successful brand launch in India, so far:

The credit for the most successful new patented product launch (launched in 2008) in the recent times, I reckon, should go to Januvia (Sitagliptin), an oral anti-diabetic molecule from the global major MSD. The reported global sales of Januvia in 2008 was US $1.4 billion and the sales reported in India was around Rs. 77 Crore (around US $17 million) in just over two years with around 2.4% market share in the large and fragmented Oral Ant-Diabetic segment (IMS, MAT March 2010). This could happen, in my view, not only due to a brilliant business strategy executed with military precision but also because of a differential pricing strategy adopted by the company for this particular product in India.

In recent times, it has not been difficult to record a turnover of around US $ 20 – 25 million by a large pharmaceutical brand either in India or China.

Conclusion:

If this does not happen, due to one reason or the other, it would arguably be quite challenging for the global innovators to be able to keep engaged in the high-cost and high-risk R&D initiatives, by driving their business growth mainly with generic and branded generic medicines in the fast growing emerging markets of the world.

Thus the name of the game for the global innovator companies will be to Explore the Emerging Markets with the ‘Wings of Courage’.

By: Tapan J Ray

The traditional ‘Business Models’ of R&D focused Global Pharmaceutical majors are undergoing a metamorphosis

Posted on August 2, 2010 by Tapan Ray

Mounting pressure on the P&L account, as the products go off patent:

Patented new products are the prime growth driver of the research based pharmaceutical companies of the world. Since last few years, because of various reasons, the number of launch of such products has been greatly reduced. To add fuel to the fire, 2010-12 will witness patent expiries of many blockbuster drugs, depleting the growth potential of the most of the research based pharmaceutical companies.

The existing model of growth engine needs a relook:

The blockbuster model of growth engine of the innovator companies effectively relies on a limited number of ‘winning horses’ to achieve the business goal and meeting the Wall Street expectations. In 2007, depleting pipeline of the blockbuster drugs hit a new low in the developed markets of the world. It is estimated that around U.S. $ 140 billion of annual turnover from blockbuster drugs will get almost shaves off due to patent expiry by the year 2016. IMS reports that in 2010 more than U.S. $ 30 billion will be adversely impacted because of patent expiry. Another set of blockbuster drugs with similar value turnover will go off patent the year after i.e. 2011. It will not be out of context to mention, that last year around U.S. $ 27 billion worth of patented drugs had gone off-patent.

Decline in R&D productivity is not related to investments:

The decline in R&D productivity has not been due to lack of investments. It has been reported that between 1993-2004, R&D expenditure by the pharmaceutical industry rose from U.S.$ 16 billion to around U.S.$ 40 billion. However, during the same period the number of applications for New Chemical Entities (NCEs) filed annually to the U.S. FDA grew by just 7%.

Total global expenditure for pharmaceutical R&D was reported to have reached U.S. $ 70 billion in 2007 and is expected to be around U.S. 90 billion in year 2010. 75% of this expenditure was incurred by the U.S alone. It is interesting to note that only 22 NMEs received marketing approval by the US FDA during this period against 53 in 1996, when R&D expenditure was almost less than half of what was incurred in 2007 towards R&D.

Be that as it may, the pressure on the P&L (Profit and Loss) accounts of these companies is indeed mounting.

The silver linings:

However, there seem to be following two silver linings in the present scenario, as reported by IMS:

1. Number of Phase I and Phase II drugs in the pipeline is increasing.

2. R&D applications for clinical trials in the U.S. rose by 11.6% to a record high of 662 last year.

Significant growth of generic pharmaceuticals is expected in near future, far surpassing the patented products growth:

Patent expiry of so many blockbusters during this period will fuel the growth of generic pharmaceutical business, especially in the large developed markets of the world. The market exclusivity for 180 days being given to the first applicant with a paragraph 4 certification in the U.S. is, indeed, a very strong incentive, especially for the generic companies of India.

Healthcare reform of March/April 2010 in the USA is expected to give a further boost to this trend.

Pressure on traditional Marketing strategies:
The marketing expenditure for pharmaceutical of the global pharmaceutical companies as reported by Scrip is U.S. $ 57.5 billion. However, an industry association reported that research based pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. spent $ 29.4 billion on R&D and $ 27.7 billion on promotional activities.

New Product Differentiation could be a big issue:

Products in R&D pipeline could face problems of ‘differentiation’ in terms of value offering to the patients, once they are launched. This issue is expected to surface especially with products in the oncology disease area. IMS Health reports that about 55 oncology projects are now in Phase III and 8 in the pre-registration stage. Thus about 50 new oncology products are expected to hit the market by end 2010. Many experts anticipate that there may not be significant brand differentiation between the brands of the ‘same basket’, leading to cut-throat competition and further pressure on expenditure towards marketing of brands.

The changing business strategy of global pharmaceutical companies during this trying time:

In this trying time, the global pharmaceutical companies are resorting to an interesting strategy, combing both old and the new ones. I shall touch upon the following seven strategies:

1. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A):
Mega M&A strategies are still being actively followed by some large Pharmaceutical companies mainly to enrich R&D pipeline and achieve both revenue and cost synergies.
However, some of these large global companies have started realizing that ‘powerhouses’ created through past mega mergers and acquisitions have now become too large to manage effectively for various reasons. Mismatch between two different organization cultures also throws a great challenge to obtain desired output, many a times. Moreover, the merged R&D set up could become too large to manage, impacting the R&D productivity very adversely.

2. Extension of the Product Life Cycle and Effective Product Life Cycle Management:
Many global pharmaceutical companies are now engaged in ‘product life cycle management’ of their existing products by extending the ‘product life cycle’, effectively. In that process they are trying to maximize the brand value of these products in the international markets. For example, AstraZeneca has developed once daily treatment with their anti-psychotic drug Seroquel XR. This extended-release formulation of the same drug will help patients avoid 5 to 7-day titration required with the immediate-release version.
Towards similar initiative, Pfizer has also recently set up a dedicated “Established Product Business Unit” within worldwide pharmaceutical operations, to hasten business growth in the international markets.

3. OTC Switch:
Prescription to ‘Over the Counter’ (OTC) switch is another business strategy that many innovator companies are now imbibing, at a much larger scale.

This strategy is helping many global pharmaceutical companies, especially in the Europe and the U.S to expand the indication of the drugs and thereby widening the patients base.

Recent prescription to OTC switches will include products like, Losec (AstraZeneca), Xenical (Roche), Zocor (Merck), etc.

4. Emerging of Preventive Therapy, like Vaccines:
Many large global companies, like GSK, Sanofi Aventis and Merck are getting attracted by the emerging opportunities in the fast developing vaccines market. This trend has been triggered primarily by heightened awareness and greater focus on preventive medicines almost all over the world. It is estimated that in 2011, the vaccines market will grow from U.S.$ 13 billion to U.S.$ 30 billion registering a growth of 18% each year during this period. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates vaccine market to be U.S. $ 42 billion by year 2015 based on data of 245 pure vaccines and 11 combination vaccines currently under clinical development. It is interesting to note that 90 of these are therapeutic vaccines for cancer.

5. Entry into highly contentious market of Biosimilar drugs:
The Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA) has estimated that it is possible to save US$ 10 billion – 108 billion over a period of 10 years with biosimilars in the top 12 categories of biological drugs. Some of these biological are already off patent and for others the patents will expire shortly.
Only a few biosimilar drugs have reached the global markets as on date because of their regulatory restrictions in most of the developed markets of the world. Even those biosimilar drugs, which have since been launched in Europe like, human growth hormone (HGH) Somatropin and Epoetin alfa for anemia, are yet to make a mark in the market place.

IMS Health reports that Omnitrope (somatropin) of Sandoz, the first biosimilar drug launched in the developed world, has registered less than 1% of the U.S. $ 831 million HGH market in Europe. Moreover, the launch of 3 more biosimilar versions of epoetin alfa in 2007, made almost negligible impact in the market. Such a low acceptance of biosimilars in the western world, so far, could well be due to lingering safety concern of the medical profession with such types of drugs.

Currently, Japan and USA are working on formal guidelines for biosimilar drugs, whereas Health Canada has already issued draft regulatory guidelines for their approval in Canada.

In April 2010, Reliance Life Science has already announced its intent to enter into the Biosimilar market of the EU in not too distant future.

6. Entry into Generic Markets:

Some large global pharmaceutical companies have already made a firm commitment to the generics market. Novartis paved the way for other innovator companies to follow this uncharted frontier, as a global business strategy. Last year the generic business of Novartis (under Sandoz) recorded 19% of their overall net sales, with turnover from generics registering U.S$ 7.2 billion growing at 20%.

Keen business interest of Sanofi Aventis to acquire Zentiva, the generic pharmaceutical company of Czechoslovakia; it’s very recent acquisition of the generic pharmaceutical company Laboratorios Kendrick of Mexico and Shantha Biotech in India and acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories of India by Daiichi Sankyo, will vindicate this point.

Pfizer has also maintained its generics presence with Greenstone in the U.S. and is using the company to launch generic versions of its own off patent products such as Diflucan (fluconazole) and Neurontin (gabapentin).

7. Collaboration with the Indian Companies:

Another emerging trend is the collaboration of MNCs with the Indian pharmaceutical companies to market generics in the global market, like, Pfizer with Aurobindo and Claris, GSK with Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Astra Zeneca with Torrent. I guess that similar trend will continue, in future, as well.

Conclusion:
Another ‘new pharmaceutical sales and marketing model’ is gradually emerging in the global markets. This model emphasizes partnership by bundling medicines with services. The key success factor, in this model, will depend on which company will offer better value with an integrated mix of medicines with services. PwC indicates that in this ‘new pharmaceutical marketing model’, besides required medicines, the expertise of a company to effectively deliver some key services like, patient monitoring and disease management could well be the cutting edge for future success.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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Explore the Emerging Markets with the ‘Wings of Courage’.

According to IMS, the global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow around 5%-7% in 2011 to US$ 880 billion, as compared to around 4%-5% of 2010.

The reasons of the slowdown, I have discussed several times in the past through this column and do not intend to dwell on that, at least, in this Article.

The Emerging Markets of the World:

Unlike developed markets, emerging pharmaceuticals market of the world, like, India, China, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey and Korea, are showing a robust growth rate, quite commensurate to the ascending GDP growth trend of these countries.

The traditional ‘Business Models’ of R&D focused Global Pharmaceutical majors are undergoing a metamorphosis