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A Great News! But…Would This ‘Golden Goose’ Lay Golden Eggs?

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On December 9, 2014, international media flashed across the world a great news item from the Indian pharma industry:

“The first biosimilar of the world’s top-selling medicine Humira (adalimumab) of AbbVie has been launched in India by Zydus Cadila.”

This exhilarating news has undoubtedly got frozen in time flagging a well-cherished moment of pride for the Indian pharmaceutical industry. Along side, taking note of many contemporary factors in this area, a lurking apprehension too does creep in. It raises an awkward and uncomfortable question – would this ‘Golden Goose” born out of a laudable ‘reverse engineering’ effort be able to lay ‘Golden Eggs’, signaling its global commercial success for the company?

In this article, I shall try to dwell on on this important issue.

In one my earlier blog posts of August 25, 2014 titled, “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns”, I discussed another related concern in this area.

Born a ‘Golden Goose’:

Just to recapitulate, the original product Humira (Adalimumab) of Abbvie, a fully human anti-TNF alpha monoclonal antibody was first globally approved for marketing in 2002. Since then Humira has emerged as the most preferred therapy to reduce the signs and symptoms of patients suffering from moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, moderate to severe polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, moderate to severe Crohn’s disease and moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. However, Humira is not available in the Indian market, at present.

Zydus Cadila has announced that its biosimilar version of Humira (Adalimumab), has been approved by the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) and will be marketed under the brand name ‘Exemptia’ for the treatment of autoimmune disorders as indicated for Humira.

As claimed by the company, ‘Exemptia’ is a ‘fingerprint match’ with the original drug Humira in terms of purity, safety and potency. Zydus Cadila has also stated that the novel non-infringing process for Adalimumab and a novel non-infringing formulation have been researched, developed and produced by scientists in its own Research Centre.

With this the world took note of the ‘Golden Goose’, born out of brilliant ‘Reverse Engineering’ in India. However, the apprehension of many continued to linger: Would this ‘Golden Goose’ be able to lay ‘Golden Eggs’?

The product and the price:

According to an estimate, over 12 million patients in India suffer from the above chronic conditions of autoimmune disorders, which progressively deteriorate and lead to lifelong pain and in some cases, even disability. To treat these indications, Exemptia is recommended as a 40 mg subcutaneous injection once every alternate week. Patients normally would have to take the treatment for six months.

Media reports indicate that ‘Exemptia’ of Zydus Cadila will be priced in India equivalent to US$ 200 a vial against Humira price in the United States of US$ 1,000. Initial overall reaction for this local price does not seem to be quite favorable for India.

The global market:

A recent report from Thomson Reuters indicates, as blockbuster drugs with sales turnover of around US$100 billion lose patent protection, the global biosimilars market is expected to grow around US$ 25 billion by the end of the decade.

According to a 2013 report of the credit rating agency Fitch, eight of the current 20 top-selling global pharmaceuticals are biologics that will face patent expiry by 2020.

EvaluatePharma reported that the current the anti-rheumatics market makes up the second largest treatment area by sales, with worldwide revenues of US$ 41.1 billion, closely behind the oncology therapy area, which registered sales of US$68 billion in 2012 with a high growth rate.

The report also states, despite biosimilar entry Anti-rheumatics segment is expected to record a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4 percent with a turnover of around S$52.1 billion in 2018.

The local potential:

Over the last several years, China and India have been emerging as the promising destinations for international outsourcing of biopharmaceutical manufacturing. In the recent times, China and India are reportedly showing promises to become the industry’s top potential destinations for offshoring over the next five years, ahead of traditional bio manufacturing hubs in the US and Western Europe.

More than 40 biosimilar products are now available in the Indian market. Over 10 pharma players are competing in this area with around 15 epoetin, 8 G-CSF and 4 insulin “biosimilars”, besides a few others.

Although India has the second largest USFDA approved drug manufacturing plants next to the United States, none of the products manufactured in these facilities can possibly be considered as “true biosimilars”.

Humira expected to remain strong:

EvaluatePharma also forecasts that Humira of AbbVie would continue to remain the best selling drug of the world at least till 2018 with sales of US$12.8 billion, despite its US patent expiry in 2016.

Moreover, to succeed Humira that will go off patent between end 2016 and 2018 (Europe), AbbVie reportedly has seven new drugs in clinical development for Rheumatoid Arthritis. These patented new drugs could also significantly cannibalize the sales of Humira.

Physicians’ attitude towards biosimilars:

According to an October 2014 Report of IMS Institute from Europe’s perspective, within each country’s health system, physicians display a range of attitudes and behaviors that influence their prescribing of biosimilars.

IMS observed three broad segments of prescribers as follows:

  • Conservative prescribers: These doctors tend to be late adopters of new technologies, are more likely to follow published clinical treatment guidelines, and may not be aware of or educated on the availability of potential use of biosimilars.
  • Open-minded prescribers: This archetype includes physicians who tend to be the most responsive to new information about treatment options, particularly where experience and knowledge of biologics may be low and educational program can be effective in impacting usage.
  • Enterprising prescribers: This segment of prescribers is most likely to search out information from all sources, and be open to trying different options for patient care including biosimilars as well as innovative treatments.

In addition to these archetypes, the report states, physicians’ attitudes and prescribing behavior may also be influenced or determined by prescribing guidelines, if any, the use of prescribing incentives, as well as the use of promotional activities by either originator or biosimilar manufacturers.

The US biosimilar challenge:

According to reports, despite two pharma players filing biosimilar applications at the USFDA, there are still many issues to be sorted out in this space by the drug regulator of the country.

Though an interchangeable biosimilar in the United States still appears to be several years away, there are initiatives in some American states to restrict interchangeable biosimilar for substitution against the reference product.

Moreover, USFDA’s draft guidance on clinical pharmacology of May 2014 has invited strong adverse comments from the innovator companies, lobby groups and the industry associations.

However, just in the last week, both the innovator companies and biosimilar manufacturers have reportedly agreed to support state legislation that allows pharmacies to automatically substitute biosimilars for corresponding branded biologics. But pharmacies must give prescribers a heads up afterward “within a reasonable time.”

For biosimilars makers, it’s a big improvement on the alternative, as the biotech developers wanted to require pharmacists to check with doctors before making the switch.

That said, the USFDA is yet to determine exactly how to classify biosimilars and their “reference products” as interchangeable. This guidance for classification would be necessary for the above mentioned pharmacy switches. This guidance is important especially for the statutory language, which dictates that interchangeability is proven for “any given patient”. This could also be construed as requiring studies in all the approved indications for a brand name biologic, i.e. Humira has around five different indications.

Thus, the path ahead still remains challenging for the biosimilar players in the United States, and more so for the Indian Companies, as compared to other global pharma majors with deep pockets.

Several other Humira biosimilars under development too:

As indicated earlier, the US and Europe patents of Humira with worldwide sales of US$ 11.02 billion in 2013 would expire by end 2016 and 2018, respectively. Thus, the product has become among the most sought-after biosimilar target prototypes for many pharma and biotech companies across the world.

The global biotech major Amgen has already indicated that its ABP 501 biosimilar has shown comparable efficacy and safety to Humira (adalimumab) in a late-stage trial in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis after treatment duration of 16 weeks. The product, reportedly, has also matched Humira in stimulating immune response in patients.

Experts believe, Amgen could be in a position to compete directly with Humira when it loses patent protection, if similar results are obtained in the second phase III trial.

Moreover, according to available reports, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sandoz (Novartis) and Coherus are also progressing well with the development of Humira biosimilars.

Zydus Cadila expects that in 2019 it would be ready to launch the biosimilar of Humira (Adalimumab) in the United States.

Marketing challenges for biosimilars:

Today, the global biosimilars market is indeed in a nascent stage, even for the Indian players.

For successful commercialization of biosimilars, I envisage, a well-crafted hybrid marketing-model of small molecule generics on the one hand and large molecule biologics of the originators’ on the other would be appropriate, in the years ahead.

In the early marketing phase, biosimilar marketers are expected to follow the same branding, communication and detailing strategies of the originators, which ultimately would transform into a generic matrix as more players chip in with the price competition intensifying.

Unlike small molecule generics, affordable price of a biosimilar would be just one of the many critical considerations for its commercial success in the biologics market.

Sustained efforts and initiatives to allay safety concerns with biosimilars among both the doctors and also the patients would be a dire necessity. Providing in-depth medical, technical and domain knowledge to the sales team should never be compromised, though these would require additional initial investments. Post marketing surveillance or pharmacovigilance for biosimilars must be ongoing, even in India. Here too, Indian players do not seem to be very strong, as yet.

Thus, unlike small molecule generics, marketing a large molecule biosimilar would require clear, razor sharp and focused strategies across the value chain to unlock its true potential. Crafting impactful value propositions, avoiding complexities, for each stakeholder, would decide the commercial fate of the product.

‘Made in India’ issue for pharma needs to be addressed expeditiously:

High credibility clinical trial data and manufacturing quality standards would also play a decisive role, especially for India made biosimilars.

This is mainly due to widespread reports of frequent USFDA allegations related to falsification and doctoring of manufacturing data in several manufacturing plants of India.

Ethical and quality issues for drugs made in India, such as these, assumed even greater dimension, as the regulators in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg reportedly suspended marketing approval for 25 drugs over the genuineness of clinical trial data from India’s GVK Biosciences. This is yet another blow to ‘Made in India’ image for medicines, which has arrested the global attention, for all the wrong reasons, just the last week. 

Conclusion:

Considering all the above points, let me now try to make a fair personal guess on whether or not the ‘Golden Goose’ would be successful enough to lay ‘Golden Eggs’, as required by the company.

Firstly, in the Indian perspective, the key point that strikes me is the cost of a treatment course with ‘Exemptia’ per patient in the country. On a rough calculation, it comes around Rs. 1,50,000 per course/per patient. This appears rather high according to the income level of an average Indian.

However, Zydus Cadila expects sales between Rs.1 billion (US$16.16 million) and 2 billion for ‘Exemptia’ only from the Indian market.

I reckon, with relatively high per course treatment cost with Exemptia, it may be quite challenging for the company to achieve this goal in the domestic market.

Thus, the global success of this biosimilar brand would mainly depend on its degree of success in the United States and Europe, post patent expiry of Humira.

Going by the possible availability of other Humira biosimilars from manufacturers with robust global marketing muscle, skill sets, experience and other wherewithal, the path of global success for Exemptia of Zydus Cadila, if the company decides to fly solo, appears to be strewn with many odds.

I would now stick my neck out to zero in with specificity in this area, while envisaging the possible future scenario.

Considering the evolving macro scenario together with the commercial success requirements in this space, I reckon, despite presence of several possible competitors of Humira biosimilars, including one from Zydus Cadila, the biotech domain expertise of Amgen, fuelled by its marketing muscle, would in all probability make its ABP 501 biosimilar the toughest competitor to Humira after its patent expiry in the US and Europe…and then…why doesn’t it try to succeed in India too?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Missing the woods for the trees – Yet another golden opportunity to rewrite the Drug Policy of India

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Long overdue the new ‘Drug Policy’ of India, since a long while, has been languishing as the ‘prisoner of indecision’ of the policy makers, while the outdated ‘1995 Drug Policy’ continues to remain operational since over a decade and half, by now.

The need for putting a new, robust, comprehensive, holistic  and reform oriented ‘Drug Policy’ in place, sooner, is absolutely critical for the fast evolving pharmaceutical industry of India.
The ‘Drug Policy 1986’ clearly enunciated the basic policy objectives relating to drugs and pharmaceuticals in India, as follows:-

  • Ensuring abundant availability of medicines at reasonable price and quality for mass consumption.
  • Strengthening the domestic capability for cost effective, quality production and exports of pharmaceuticals by reducing barriers to trade in the pharmaceutical sector.
  • Strengthening the system of quality control over drug and pharmaceutical production and distribution.
  • Encouraging R&D in the pharmaceutical industry in a manner compatible with the country’s needs and with particular focus on diseases endemic or relevant to India by creating an conducive environment.
  • Creating an incentive framework for the pharmaceutical and drug industry which promotes new investment into pharmaceutical industry and encourages the introduction of new technologies and new drugs.

After having completed around 25 years since then, it is high time for the government to ponder and assess whether the successive drug policies have delivered to the nation the desirable outcome, as enunciated above.
‘Missing the woods for the trees’:

The overall objective of the ‘Drug Policy’ is indeed to help accelerating the all-round inclusive growth of the Indian pharmaceutical industry to make it a force to reckon with in the global pharmaceutical arena. At the same time, the policy should help creating an appropriate ecosystem to improve access to quality medicines at an affordable price to the entire population of the nation.

Just one pronged approach of drug price control mechanism for drugs and pharmaceuticals is in no way can be considered as a holistic approach to achieve the set objectives. Isolated initiative of price regulation could at best be treated as just one such important measures, out of very many, at the very best. This initiative may justifiably be construed as ‘missing the woods for the trees’.

Financial cover towards medical expenses for all, is very important: 

One of the major issues in the healthcare space of the country is high out of pocket expenses by majority of the population. Financial protection against medical expenditures is far from universal in India with around 15% of the population having some sort of medical financial cover.

January 11, 2011 edition of ‘The Lancet’ in its article titled, “Financing health care for all: challenges and opportunities” commented as follows:

“India’s health financing system is a cause of and an exacerbating factor in the challenges of health inequity, inadequate availability and reach, unequal access, and poor-quality and costly health-care services. The Government of India has made a commitment to increase public spending on health from less than 1% to 3% of the gross domestic product during the next few years…. Enhanced public spending can be used to introduce universal medical insurance that can help to substantially reduce the burden of private out-of-pocket expenditures on health.”

A comparison of private (out of pocket) health expenditure:

1. Pakistan: 82.5% 2. India: 78% 3. China: 61% 4. Sri Lanka: 53% 5. Thailand: 31% 6. Bhutan: 29% 7. Maldives: 14%

(Source: The Lancet)

Food prices impact health more than medicine costs:

Year

Pharma Price Increases

Food Inflation

2008

1.1%

5.6%

2009

1.3%

8.0%

2010

0.5%

14.4%

Source: CMIE

The key affordability issue still remains unresolved: 

The above edition of ‘The Lancet’ highlighted that outpatient (non-hospitalization) expenses in India is around 74% of the total health expenses and the drugs account for 72% of this total outpatient expenditure. The study has also pointed out that 47% and 31% hospitalization in rural and urban areas respectively, are financed by loans and sell of assets.

Around 35% of Indian population can’t afford to spend on medicines:

While framing the ‘Drug Policy’, the government should keep in mind that a population of around 35% in India, still lives below the poverty line (BPL) and will not be able to afford any expenditure towards medicines.

Adding more drugs in the list of essential medicines and even bringing them all under stringent price control will not help the country to resolve this critical issue.

Successive ‘Drug Policies’ of India focused on affordability and access just through ‘price control’:

There is no ‘One Size Fits All’ type of definition for affordability of medicines, just like any other essential commodities, especially when around 80% of healthcare expenditure is ‘out of pocket’ in India.  Any price point, thus, may be affordable to some and unaffordable to some others.

The initiatives taken by the government in the successive drug policies, since the last four decades, have certainly been able to make the drug prices in India one of the lowest in the world.

However, very unfortunately, despite such price control, even today, 47% and 31% of hospitalization in rural and urban areas, respectively, are financed by private loans and selling of assets by individuals, as stated earlier. 

Multi-dimensional approach to improve access to healthcare and affordable medicines:

Access to healthcare and affordable medicines can be improved through an integrated and comprehensive approach of better access to doctors, diagnostics and hospitals, along with price monitoring mechanism for each component of healthcare cost, including medicines.

Healthcare infrastructure in India is now constrained by a lack of trained healthcare professionals, limited access to diagnostics and treatment and availability of quality medicines. Moreover, while around 80% of Indians pay out of pocket for healthcare, the Government of India spends less than 1% of GDP on health.

Consequently, the supply of healthcare services falls significantly short of demand. The current figure of 9 beds per 10,000 in India is far from the world average of 40 beds per 10,000 people. Similarly, for every 10,000 Indians, there are just 6 doctors available in the country, while China has 20 doctors for the same number of Chinese population.

Access to affordable medicines still remains a key challenge for the ‘Drug Policy’ makers:

Over 46% of patients in India travel beyond 100 km. to seek medical care.

(Source: Technopak & Philips (2010) Accessible Healthcare: Joining the Dots Now, New Delhi).

Many places in rural India, lack of availability of good quality medicines such as antibiotics poses even a greater challenge than their affordability. The national immunization program provides 6 vaccines free of cost, yet just around 60% of the country’s population is covered by it. The National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) provides free ARV (Anti-Retroviral) treatment to the poor, yet the drugs do not reach more than 10% of those in need of the same.

Without proper equipment and doctors to diagnose and treat patients, medicines are of little value to those who need them most.  Drug price regulation alone, though important, cannot increase access to healthcare without creation of adequate infrastructure required to ensure effective delivery and administration of the medicines, together with appropriate financial cover for health.

The Government won’t be able to do it all alone:

The Government needs to partner with the private sector to address India’s acute healthcare challenges through Public-Private-Partnership (PPPs) initiatives.

Recent examples of successful PPPs in the health sector include outsourcing ambulance services, mobile medical units, diagnostics and urban health centers in several states to private NGOs, hospitals and clinics.  PPPs in India should adequately cover primary and specialty healthcare, including clinical and diagnostic services, insurance, e-healthcare, hospitals and medical equipment.

A golden opportunity for a new beginning:

Many of us may know that the modified Drug Policy of 2002 was challenged under a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) in the Karnataka High Court in the same year. The honorable High Court in its order had directed the Central Government to consider and formulate appropriate criteria to ensure that the essential and lifesaving drugs do not fall out of price control. The court, at that time, also directed the Government to review the drugs which are essential and lifesaving in nature.

The above matter came up before the honorable Supreme Court of India on March 31, 2011, when the Union of India made a statement that the Central Government has not implemented and is not going to implement the 2002 Policy and a new Drug Policy is being framed.

In view of the submissions made on behalf of Government of India, the appeal was disposed of as infructuous by the Supreme Court of India.

Expectations from the ‘New Drug Policy’:

In view of the above and especially when a new Drug Policy is being worked out, adequate and immediate policy measures, with an absolutely fresh look, are essential to address the root cause of the country’s failure to ‘Improve Access to Quality Medicines at Affordable Prices’ to ensure ‘Health for all’.

The Government has already signaled increasing allocation of resources towards the health sector by doubling the funding available for the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) along with plans to extend ‘Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojna (RSBY)’ scheme to provide out-patient coverage to low income groups.

As has been demonstrated by many countries of the world, healthcare financing offers an enduring mechanism for reducing the out-of-pocket expenses of the poor and improve access to healthcare. Government and the private sector need to pool resources to expand health insurance coverage initially to at least 40% of the population who are below the poverty line. Positive developments are being reported in this area, as well, albeit slowly.

Allocating resources from national welfare schemes towards health insurance coverage is a step in the right direction.  For example, a portion of the MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) funds could be spent on health insurance premia for labors engaged in such work.

Thus to achieve the objective of ‘Improving Access to Quality Medicines at Affordable Prices’, there is a pressing need for the policy makers to put in place a robust healthcare financing model for all strata of the society, sooner than later. This initiative will significantly reduce high overall ‘out of pocket expenses’ towards healthcare in India by the common man.

Encourage healthy competition among healthcare providers:

Simultaneously, by encouraging tough competition within healthcare providers, like health insurance companies, all elements of healthcare expenditure like physicians’ fees, diagnostic tests, hospital beds, medicines etc. will be kept under tight leash by themselves, just to be more cost-effective in their businesses along with ensured patients’ satisfaction.

In such a competitive environment, the patients will be the net gainers, as we have seen in other knowledge based industries, like in the telecom sector with incredible increase in teledensity within the country.

Effective penetration of various types of innovative health insurance schemes will thus be one of the key growth drivers not only for the Indian pharmaceutical industry, but also for its inclusive growth, as desired by many in India.

The policy should also include an equally transparent system to ensure that errant players within the healthcare sector, who will be caught with profiteering motives, under any garb, at the cost of precious lives of the ailing patients, are brought to justice with exemplary punishments, as will be defined by law.

Conclusion:

I have no doubt that the presence of an effective drug price regulator in the country is absolutely necessary to keep a careful vigil on the drug prices.

At the same time one should realize that the good old routine approach in formulating the long overdue ‘New Drug Policy’, even if it includes all drugs featuring in the ‘National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM)’, would not suffice anymore to ‘improve access to quality medicines at an affordable price’ to the common man.

The real answer to affordable healthcare in India, including medicines, unlike the developed countries of the world, lies in the expertise of the policy makers in innovatively addressing the vexing issue of  ‘around 80% out of pocket expenses towards healthcare’ by the ordinary citizens of the country.

This factor itself, in case of just one or couple of serious illnesses, could make a middle class household in India poor and a poor could be pushed even Below the Poverty Line (BPL).

Inadequate access to modern medicines in India, after 40 years of stringent drug price control and despite essential medicines being available in the country at the lowest price even as compared to Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal, will vindicate this critical point.

However, ‘The Economic Times’ dated May 23, 2011 has reported yet again, quoting Shri Srikant Jena, the Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers, who oversees the pharmaceutical sector, that the Government ‘is putting together a host of policy changes to reduce the cost of medicines’.

This time around, let us sincerely hope that the drug policy makers do not repeat the same old folly of ‘missing the woods for the trees’.

By: Tapan J Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.