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Changing recipe for growth in the new paradigm of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry… for its effective implementation there appears to be more questions than answers:

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India, the world’s largest democracy with its economy on a sustained growth track is creating an overall environment for high performance for all key sectors, including pharmaceuticals. In terms of GDP growth India is second only to China and is expected to become the fifth largest economy by 2017.
Dawn of a New Era:
Over a period of time, India has emerged as a fast growing pharmaceutical industry through various policy measures taken by the government of India (GoI). Such policy measures have been very supportive to the domestic companies. The absence of product patents from 1970 to 2005 enabled the Indian pharmaceutical companies to become world’s leading producers of ‘copycat’ versions of patented drugs. Lower cost base and expertise in ‘reverse engineering’ immensely helped the domestic industry to sustain its competitive edge during this period.

New product patent regime in 2005 heralded the dawn of a new era triggering a transformation of the industry. Return of large global companies like, MSD, Roche, Eli Lilly and entry of other company’s like Biogen, Genzyme, Allergan, Astellas, Eisai etc together with the emergence of many Indian companies to become research-based multinationals, are making this transformation more interesting.

Generic pharmaceuticals will continue to play a significant role:

Even with all these changes, generic pharmaceutical products will continue to play a significant role towards the growth of the industry. While being major global generic players, some large Indian companies like Dr. Reddy’s laboratories (DRL), Glenmark, Ranbaxy, Piramal Healthcare etc have commenced their journey on the long road of product discovery research with reasonable amount of initial success. There are now several new drug development programs by many of these Indian pharmaceutical companies, which will hopefully result in global product launches in not too distant future. India’s emphasis on research and development and new drug discovery is indeed growing since the country signed WTO agreement for product patent in 1995.

An industry with high success quotient:

Currently India is the world’s fourth largest producer of pharmaceuticals by volume and directly employs about 5 lakh people. The market is crowded with 20,000 pharmaceutical firms, 60,000 distributors and 700,000-800,000 retailers. Although there are around 5,600 licensed generics players, in reality around 3,000 of them are engaged in pharmaceutical production. The domestic pharmaceutical companies now cater to about 70% of the country’s requirements for medicines. The top 10 companies control about 30% and 250 companies control around 70% of the market.

Key determinants of success:

Following in my view are the key determinants, which will decide the extent of success of the Indian pharmaceutical industry as a whole:

• Healthcare delivery and infrastructure

• Access and affordability of modern medicines

• IPR environment

• Domestic R&D success

• Speed of regulatory reform process

• Disease trends and prescription patterns

• Public and private healthcare spending

• Penetration of health insurance

Domestic companies adopting different business model:

In this changing scenario different domestic companies are adopting different business models, as follows:

1. Penetration to the regulated generics markets:

- With partnership agreements with established generic companies

- Setting up own sales and marketing organisations both greenfield and also through acquisitions

- With acquisition of manufacturing facilities

2. Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS):

Ballooning costs for research and development and low productivity have prompted the research-based global pharmaceutical companies to outsource part of their research and manufacturing activities to lower-cost, developing nations like, India and China.

India is gradually emerging as a competitive hub for CRAMS. The country is playing a significant role in manufacturing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and intermediates for the global pharmaceutical industry. We have also seen the global pharmaceutical companies signing-up long-term outsourcing contracts with the Indian manufacturing and contract research organizations.

Generic pharmaceuticals produced in India are increasingly being accepted all over the world, excepting some recent US-FDA related issues. Many Indian companies like Piramal Healthcare, Aurobindo, DRL etc are taking up global generic manufacturing contracts for the global players like, Allergan, Pfizer and GSK, in addition to marketing generic pharmaceuticals themselves. Outsourcing of such business processes to India has undoubtedly been proved to be not only effective in saving costs, but also in saving valuable developmental time for the Multinational companies (MNCs).

Besides all these, India is emerging as the preferred destination for outsourcing clinical trials because of its both high quality and lower cost facilities of global standards.

3. Operating in domestic generic market

4. Investing more in R&D for discovery of NCE/NME

Key growth drivers:

A recent study jointly undertaken by the Organization of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI) and Yes Bank identified following key growth drivers for the domestic pharmaceutical Industry:

• Consolidation leading to better pricing

• Population growth, changing demographics and urbanization

• Increasing per capita income leading to higher penetration

• Access to quality healthcare through health insurance schemes

• Robust product patent regime, although generics will continue to grow

The questions to ponder:

1. Whether domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies will make large-scale investments in R&D to compete effectively with the global companies across the world?

2. Whether global pharmaceutical companies will be successful in marketing drugs patented in India?

3. Whether the government, physicians and patients keep supporting the generics?

4. How will the new Drug Policy be?

5. How will the government go about improving access to modern medicines from the current level of 35% to 100% of the Indian population?

Conclusion:

It is not quite easy to gauge the rate of progress of the Indian pharmaceutical industry in the new paradigm, at this stage. One of the key growth drivers of the domestic pharmaceutical industry has been the launch of a slew of new products of various types. The pipe line of such products has already started drying up in a comparative yardstick, in post product patent regime. Consequently, as already launched such new products reach the maturity stage from the growth phase of their ‘product life cycle’, a possible slowdown in the rate of growth of the respective companies in the domestic market is well anticipated.

There are other growth drivers though, for the industry, but how will these drivers actually drive the industry growth will, to a large extent, depend on proper answers to the above five questions. Thus, in the new paradigm though the growth recipe is ready, in its effective implementation there are more questions than answers.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Global ‘Contract Research and Manufacturing Services’ (CRAMS) – a new growth opportunity for mid-cap Indian pharmaceutical companies… Are we ready?

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Intense competition within global pharmaceutical industry, patent expiries of blockbuster drugs, ballooning R&D costs together with low R&D productivity, more and more stringent regulatory standards coupled with intense cost containment measures are exerting intense pressure on the bottom lines of the global pharmaceutical companies. The situation, which is continuing for quite some time from now has triggered two important strategic business considerations:1. A rapid consolidation process through ‘mega mergers’ and ‘mega acquisitions’ while medium to smaller M&As continued mostly with an intent to bridge strategic business gaps.2. Increase in interest towards ‘Business Processes Outsourcing’ initiatives of various scales and types, which include contract manufacturing and contract research to lower cost countries with clear objectives of saving both cost and time.

Such a situation has given rise to the evolution of Contract Research and Manufacturing Services, popularly known as CRAMS, especially in countries like India and China.

India is fast emerging as one of the key outsourcing hubs for contract research and global formulations manufacturing activities by improving its manufacturing standards through global benchmarking and simultaneously honing its competitive edge.

CRAMS market – Global and Local:

In 2006 the global market for CRAMS was reported to be of US$52 billion, which is expected to grow to US$76 billion by 2010.

However, the CRAMS market in India was just around US$1.00 billion in 2006, which is expected to grow to around US$3.50 billion by 2010, with an estimated CAGR of around 38% during the period.

Contract Research Market:

In 2006, including clinical trials with data management, contract research market in India was estimated to be around US$370 million with an annual growth of around 45%. In that year out of total contract research market, clinical trials activities contributed over 50%, closely followed by pre-clinical trials with a contribution of around 30%. Custom synthesis together with chemistry and biology related R&D activities contributed balance 18% of the contract research market.

Contract Manufacturing market:

In 2007, the global market for contract manufacturing was around U.S$26 billion. The market is estimated to be of U.S$40 billion in 2011 registering a CAGR of around 12%.

Contract manufacturing market in India was reported to be of U.S$ 660 million with an annual growth of 48% in 2007. However, both India and China are expected to grow faster during this period with a CAGR of around 20% because of availability of skilled human resource and world class manufacturing facilities.

The global market for contract manufacturing is highly fragmented. The market share of top 10 companies in this field is just around 30%. As Catalent Pharma Solutions, USA is the largest contract manufacturer of the world with a turnover of U.S$1.8 billion in 2007; Piramal Healthcare is the largest contract manufacturer in India, which has registered a growth of over 30% in 2007-08. In the field of biotechnology Lonza of Switzerland is the largest contract manufacturer with a growth of over 75% in 2007.

Key Services provided by the CRAMS in India:

Contract Manufacturing Organizations:

They provide mainly:

• Manufacturing capacities to the global pharmaceutical companies
• Formulations development
• Value-added services like process development and process optimization

Contract Research Organizations:

They provide services mainly related to:

• Drug discovery
• Pre-clinical and clinical trial management

The Growth Divers for CRAMS business:

• Collaboration with global pharmaceutical companies in various areas of manufacturing, like local country-specific packaging of finished formulations from bulk packs imported from the originator, to complete manufacturing of the finished formulations, including supply of indigenously made raw material as per originators specifications.

• Outsourcing of formulations of off-patent molecules by the global companies to effectively compete with generics, as has happened between Pfizer and Aurobindo Pharma of Hyderabad, India.

• Expertise in cost-effective custom synthesis for global innovator companies of various scales of operation.

• Clear and sharp focus on CRAMS business by constantly improving manufacturing and supply chain management efficiencies. As is currently being practised by Piramal Healthcare. They have already spun off their R&D activities into a separate legal entity to unleash its commercial potential.

• Anytime readiness for audit of the approved site/s by any global regulator.

CRAMS space in India offers an emerging growth opportunity of global scale, especially to mid-cap domestic pharmaceutical companies. Many of these companies are still engaged in their old business model of the old paradigm of pre-IPR regime – manufacturing and marketing of generic brands and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API). This business model can still work. But not without its huge inherent risk of continuous heavy pressure on the bottom lines due to intense cut-throat competition.

A strategic shift in the business model by those mid cap Indian pharmaceutical companies, who have wherewithal of creating world class CRAMS facilities for their global collaborators, would, to a great extent, be able to insulate their current high risk generic brands or API manufacturing and marketing business. At the same time, it will be quite possible for them to register a decent business growth by availing the emerging opportunities of the new paradigm of post IPR regime-CRAMS.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Innovation, IPR and Indian Pharmaceutical Industry – a growth formula is brewing.

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Innovate or perish:Many of us expect that ‘tomorrow’ will be a ‘mega today’ and prefer to run our business more or less the same way, as what we are doing today. At the same time the global market keeps us sending, in very small measures though, but definite and continuous signals of change. As we move on, we realize that ‘tomorrow’ will not be a ‘mega today’, just as ‘today’ is not a ‘mega yesterday’. To meet such challenge of change squarely and realistically, we need to embrace a culture of ‘continuous innovation’.Therefore, the name of the game, while competing within the globalised economy is “continuous innovation”. An innovation, as we know, is more than a novel idea. It is, in fact, the process of translating the novel idea into reality.

Like other industries, the pharmaceutical industry in India will also have to innovate with cutting edge ideas, convert them to innovative and implementable business models, which in turn would help these companies to remain competitive in the market place. The innovation, which I am talking about, extends beyond Intellectual Property Rights (IPR).

While innovation is an absolute must to remain and grow the business, having patented products and marketing these brands effectively are desirable and not a ‘must do’ in the pharmaceutical industry of India.

Many would like to ‘stick to knitting’ and innovate:

Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is now an internationally acclaimed player in process development, contract research, manufacturing and domestic marketing skills. The Government of India created this environment for the industry through amendments of the Indian Patents Act 1970.

During post product patent regime in India, there is no dire need for the entire domestic industry to shift its focus from world class process development skills to new molecule development skill. On the contrary, the strengths acquired by the domestic industry in such skill sets should be further honed, to utilize benefits from opportunities that arise out of basic R&D processes. Some of these are collaborative activities with the multinational companies (MNCs) to create a win-win situation in areas like, contract research, clinical development, contract manufacturing and domestic marketing of in-licensed products.

The domestic pharmaceutical industry should therefore adopt strategies like manufacturing off patent products, like recent collaboration between Aurobindo Pharma and Pfizer, Jubilant Organosys with French company Guerbet, for distribution of its nuclear medicine products in Europe. ‘Financial Express’ dated March 13, 2009 reported “Eli Lily seeks partner for Indian TB initiatives.

Such opportunities will keep on coming, may be more frequently and more in number, especially when global innovator companies take more interest in the generic pharmaceutical business, like, Novartis, Daiichi Sankyo, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi Aventis etc.

To grab such opportunities, the strategy of ‘stick to the knitting’ with continuous innovation is expected to help the domestic pharmaceutical companies immensely.

IPR regime – emerging opportunities:

Discovery Research:

While above approach will help many small and medium sector enterprises, many large pharmaceutical companies and research boutiques in India are investing significantly to discover New Molecular Entities (NMEs). It has been reported that by 2011, at least two Indian pharmaceutical companies are planning to launch their NMEs.

Biotech Research:

Research in the field of Biotechnology is rapidly evolving, especially in the areas of diagnostics, vaccines, cellular and molecular biology. It is heartening to note that for doing stem cell research National Institute of Health, USA, identified Reliance Life Sciences in Mumbai and the National Institute of Biological sciences in Bangalore to receive state funding from the USA. Both these two organizations entered into contracts to supply embryonic stem cells to the US based researchers. Moreover, in the field of ‘Biometrics’ raw clinical data are now being transmitted to the specialists in India for their scientific evaluation.

It has been reported that in the developing countries of the world malaria afflicts about 300-500 million population and kills 1-3 million of them. Malaria also allows some fatal genetic illnesses, like sickle cell anaemia to thrive in the gene pool. Hence a vaccine developed for this disease through Indian biotech initiatives, would indeed be a great boon for the developing countries of the world.

Industry – Academia Collaboration:

In the Western countries, close collaboration exists between the industry and academic institutes in the field of Pharmaceutical Research. Such type of collaboration has now started developing in India too, where Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) is playing major role.

An effective collaboration between the pharmaceutical industry and the academia will ensure productive use of research talents where both the parties will draw benefits. The research done by the CSIR, Indian Institute of Technology (IITs), Indian Institute of Science and various universities is expected to throw open new avenues of collaboration and partnership between industry and Academia.

Benefits of Technology Transfer and increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

The new product patent regime is also expected to facilitate flow of technology and foreign direct investment in India with adequate patent enforcement mechanism being put in place. Inadequate patent and regulatory data protection are considered by the developed nations as the key barriers, which restrict the flow of both technology and foreign investments.

In these areas, India mainly competes with China and Brazil, besides other emerging markets. Degree of patent and regulatory data protection in each of these countries will eventually decide who will emerge as a winner in these fields.

The issue of ‘Access to New Innovative Patented Drugs’:

Innovative pharmaceutical products patented in India will facilitate access to the latest modern medicines to Indian population. Such medicines will help to meet the unmet needs of the ailing population. Many multinational companies like, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) have already announced a differential pricing mechanism for such medicines in the developing countries.

Moreover, to improve access of such medicines to the common man, the Government of India should have robust plan to purchase these medicines, at a negotiated price, for supply to Government Healthcare Units

Improving ‘Access to affordable modern medicines’ – a challenge to the nation

There are three key elements to improve access to affordable medicines to a vast majority (650 million) of Indian population:

1. Healthcare infrastructure and delivery
2. Healthcare financing
3. Procurement price of these medicines at the Government Healthcare units

Price of patented products will not have any impact on existing medicines available in the market. However, the reality is, price regulation in some form will continue to play a key role in India. The long overdue new Drug Policy of India is now expected to come only after the new Government takes charge, post General Election of the country. The new policy is expected to articulate the details on this important subject both for patented and generic medicines, in India.

A determined and focused approach of the Government on the above three elements would effectively address the key healthcare issues of India.

Small Scale Enterprises in India – expecting large scale consolidation:

In India over 70% of the small-scale units, within the pharmaceutical industry, currently operate as contract manufacturers, either for the domestic or multinational companies. These small scale units with their low operating cost ,make the contract sourcing model an attractive proposition. Many of these small scale enterprises, are mostly catering to the export business in non-regulated markets.

The demand for high quality standard by the drug regulatory authorities of various countries is fast increasing. It is, therefore, essential for these units to make significant investments to qualify for such stringent quality requirements. Some units would be able to invest enough to meet such regulatory standards. However, the cost of production for those units, which will invest towards facility up gradation is expected to increase significantly, leading to fierce cut throat competition. In a situation like this, we can expect to witness a large scale consolidation process within the industry.

Intense competition from China – cannot be ignored:

Globalisation of the markets could lead to significant dumping of products in different countries. Such a situation may adversely affect the cash flow of business, making the domestic industry highly vulnerable. Currently, Indian manufacturers are facing intense competition from China, in Pharmaceutical Intermediates (PI) and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) segments. This is mainly because China has a much better economies of scale in manufacturing, which gives them a pricing edge over their Indian counterparts.

PI and he API manufacturers in the small scale enterprise segments of India have already been very adversely impacted, leading to closure of many units in various states like, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat.

Conclusion:

The issue of a robust world class patent regime in India has sparked off an intense debate with a heavy dose of acrimony. The key areas of concern of various stakeholders are as follows:

1. General public: inadequate access of affordable modern medicine to the common man
2. Domestic generic industry: overall industry growth and to some extent its survival
3. The Government of India: combination of 1&2

After many years of tough resistance mainly from the domestic generic pharmaceutical industry, in January 1, 2005, India re-entered into the pharmaceutical product patent regime. In this article, I have tried to give a snapshot of this new regime, for a quick reading.

Despite tough competition from China and increased possibility of consolidation within small scale pharmaceutical units, overall emerging scenario in India is indeed encouraging. Imbibing innovation culture and with the opportunities available in the new IPR regime, Indian pharmaceutical industry, I believe, will be able to catapult itself to newer heights of global success.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.