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Shift from Disease Centered Care To Patient-Goals Directed Care In The New Normal

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In the initial days of the first quarter of 2020, no one could fathom that just within the next 4 months over two million fellow citizens will get infected by an unknown virus, recording over 45,500 deaths. Many authorities may wish to project or analyze these Covid-19 numbers in so many different ways. Nevertheless, the fact remains, currently, in passing each day India is recording the highest count of fresh Covid-19 cases in the world, alongside the most daily deaths from the virus.

In the early days of Covid19 in India, many expected a remedial pathway to emerge soon – conventional or unconventional. Accordingly, Indian citizens across the country responded to the call of some national leaders by observing some – even unconventional measures, such as:

  • On March 22, 2014, to “boost morale” of doctors and public workers, as urged by the Indian Prime Minister, many people banged pots and pans on balconies across India.
  • On April 05, 2020, again responding to the Prime Minister’s passionate call, a large number of Indians turned off lights, lighted candles and Diyas hoping to dispel COVID-19 darkness.
  • On May 02, 2020, as organized by the Government, the country’s armed forces engaged in a nationwide exercise to express gratitude to doctors, paramedics, sanitation staff and other front-line workers involved in fighting the Coronavirus pandemic.

Gradually, the stark reality sank in, as the old normal faded out in the horizon. Public expectations arguably started shifting from heavenly interventions, as it were, to science-based measures. It has now been generally accepted that there is no alternative to social distancing and wearing a mask at the public places. These should continue, till the ‘silver bullet’ – vaccines arrive. More so, when going for herd immunity “cannot be a strategic choice or option,” given the size of India’s population, as the Government said.

Billions of people have now started hoping for the ‘silver bullet’ to come soon. This sky-high expectation continues to be fueled by media hype – based primarily by the Press Releases of the concerned companies. In the midst of these, comes a word of caution from the apex health body of the world. As recent as August 03, 2020, the World Health Organization (W.H.O) announced, ‘despite strong hopes for a vaccine, there might never be a “silver bullet” for COVID-19, and the road to normality would be long.’

To add some degree of certainty in this humongous – primarily scientific and logistical challenge to save lives, – pharma and biotech industry, as usual, are coming to the forefront. Billions of eyeballs are now glued on to them – following every bit of what they are saying – as the devastating impact of this health catastrophe is profound. Besides individual health, the fall-out of the pandemic is intimately intertwined with livelihoods, nation’s economy, social fabric and adjusting to the new way of living, including new mechanisms for most transactions.

Obviously, this would create a new normal – quite different from the old one – and naturally would include pharma business, as well. In this scenario, patients will assume a much different status, especially in the disease treatment process. More patients would likely to prefer their individual health-goals directed holistic care, which calls for a holistic disease treatment solution. The process needs to be contactless as far as practicable, less time intensive and above all cost effective

In this article, let me focus on this area. I reckon, many pharma players are also evaluating the impact of this shift to achieve business excellence in the new normal.

The current treatment approach and the pharma focus:

A recent paper, published in the JAMA Cardiology on the April 2016, made some interesting observations in this area. Citing cardiology disease area as an example, the authors noted the following, among other points:

  • Physicians’ decision-making process generally ‘concentrates on disease-specific outcomes, following practice guidelines for specific conditions.’
  • Value-based purchasing also largely focus on individual diseases.
  • However, disease-centered framework is ill-suited for persons with multiple chronic conditions, including older adults and the majority of adult health care users of all ages.
  • Disease-centered decision-making results in treatment burden when patients must adhere to multiple guidelines and harm when guideline recommendations conflict.
  • Furthermore, disease-centered recommendations may not address what matters most to these patients – varying health priorities.

The shortcomings of this approach from the patients’ perspectives, besides adding greater value for patients, prompt a need for change. From the current disease-oriented treatment approach, and pharma’s business-related focus in sync with this system.

Habit of visiting specialists at the very beginning complicates the process:

The disease-oriented treatment approach, as it is today, isn’t a legacy issue. In the good old days, General Practitioners (GP) used to examine their patients thoroughly – covering the entire body. Thereafter, depending on the specific areas of need, expert interventions used to be recommended.

However, todays well-informed people, equipped with health information of all kinds, can possibly figure out the broad outline of their health problems. Accordingly, many of them directly arrange appointment with specialists. As most of them are generally not terribly wrong in figuring out the problem areas, specialists’ treatment progresses in the same direction. Other existing health issues, not being of high priority treatment areas for persons concerned, could remain ignored, till these also flare up.

Undoubtedly this approach, even if is made ‘patient-centric’, in a broader sense, by pharma players, would cost more time, more money to patients. Besides, loss of income and increase in morbidity. This is certainly an avoidable situation for all – patients, doctors and pharma companies.

Go beyond ‘patient-centricity’ encompassing ‘patient-goals directed care’:  

The new focus should be directed towards ‘patient-goals directed care.’ This approach, which flows from a very old and a classic concept of  Sir William Osler articulated in the 19th century. This remains as relevant today for any holistic - ‘patient-goals directed care.’ It goes way beyond much hyped ‘patient-centric’ approach.

Sir William Osler once said, “The good physician treats the disease; the great physician treats the patient who has the disease.” The great physician understands the patient and the context of that patient’s illness. Accordingly, I reckon, pharma players new focus needs to be in conformance to this concept. It fits in so well with changing patients’ expectations in the new normal.

As has been evaluated in many studies, although, patient-goals directed care may appear to be particularly useful for persons with multiple chronic conditions, ‘this approach works across the age and health span, making it a compelling path toward value-based care from the patient’s perspective.’

‘Each patient represents a story’ which needs to be carefully deciphered: 

The article – ‘To Be a Great Physician, You Must Understand the Whole Story,’ published in the Medscape General Medicine on March 26, 2007, elucidated the point nicely. It said, each patient represents a story, which includes their diseases, their new problem, their social situation, and their beliefs. A physician needs to understand this story. Accordingly, perform a targeted physical examination based on the historical clues, order the correct diagnostic tests, and interpret them in the context of the history and physical exam. Once the appropriate data are collected, the patient’s story needs to be revisited, based on scientific data.

Revisiting process of the patients’ story includes making the correct diagnosis or diagnoses. The story must reveal the patient’s context – Who is this patient? – What is the patient’s goal? – How might the patient’s personal situation impact the treatment options? And more – as the above article highlights.

Each patient’s story’ is important for pharma companies, as well:

Patients’ disease related stories are of crucial importance to the pharma players, as well, for strategic reasons. Not just to gain insights on the disease manifestation process, but more importantly to facilitate a company’s engagement with them.

Another interesting article has brought out some more important issues in this area. The paper is titled, ‘Patient Centricity and Pharmaceutical Companies: Is It Feasible?’ It was published by the SAGE Journals on March 28, 2017, where the authors underscored, engagement with patients can only be possible, if there is credibility. Elaborating this point, the paper cited two GSK examples aimed at building trust with patients and physicians, as follows:

  • Change in marketing practices: In 2011, GSK eliminated prescription sales targets in the US and introduced a new incentive model for sales and marketing practices based on value and feedback from prescribers; external speakers/ convention travel support was discontinued (2016).
  • Clinical transparency: Since 2013 GSK has committed to promote transparency of clinical research and is a leading example in the pharmaceutical industry—it was the first company to grant access to anonymized patient data. The ‘All trial campaign (2013)’ commits to publishing all trial data; the GSK patient-level data access site has become a multi-sponsored portal (2014).

Conclusion:

As of August 09, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases in India have crossed a staggering 2 billion mark, reaching 2,153,10 with 43,452 deaths. The figure keeps climbing – faster than expected, unabated.

The business relevance for a shift from the conventional disease centered care to patient-goals directed care, require deep understanding of the top pharma leadership along with its very purpose, in the new normal. Patients deserve this now, more than ever before, as explained above.

In my view, a changing mindset to align pharma business strategy – from providing a disease-oriented care to patient-goals directed care, is expected to improve patient outcomes manifold. Nevertheless, like what the above SAGE article emphasized, the organization at its end would require defining collectively and with clarity – why is this change now? How it is to be done – step by step?  And what are the results the company aims to achieve?

Consequently, it would help create a large pool of delighted and company loyal customers having strong ‘word of mouth’ advantages. Top pharma leadership’s ‘buying in’ this concept, with an appropriate organizational structure in place, would herald a new dawn of ‘Patient Value-Based Care’ – Convid-19 pandemic notwithstanding.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

New Digital Tools To Protect From Infection, Neutralize Covid-19

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There seems to be some light at the end of the dark tunnel of a serious biological threat that the world is passing through, since the nightmarish last seven months. The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to 213 countries and territories, and the number of new cases is continuously rising. According to reports, the severity of the situation has already re-shaped our society, more than ever before.

In tandem, reports are arriving from most countries, testifying the tremendous commitment of the governmental, scientific and clinical communities, to help local populations dealing with the pandemic. Scientists are still far from having a complete picture of the pathophysiology of this dangerous disease, including its long-term implications on individuals.

Amid this challenge, round the clock search for a life-saving and long-term pathway to outmatch the fast-spreading Covid-19, seems to be coming to fruition, soon. If everything materializes as expected, Covid-19 vaccines may be available by the end of this year or at the beginning of the next year. If it happens, this will be a record in the history of any vaccine development process, as the normal ‘mind to market’ period to deliver a scientifically proven, safe and effective vaccine is normally around 10 years. That said, there always exists a gap between the cup and the lip, as the saying goes.

No doubt, vaccines will be the best way to bring the new Coronavirus under a tight leash to help normalize life, restore livelihoods, and putting a nation’s economy back to the growth trajectory. The good news is, alongside this magic bullet, the power of technology is exploring other technological measures to keep the virus at bay, wherever possible. In this article, I shall focus on this interesting area.

Let me hasten to add, the value offerings of these devices can’t be compared with the long-term benefits that vaccines will offer in containing this global pandemic. Nevertheless, the questions still remain, when will a well-documented, safe, effective and affordable vaccine hit the market?

W.H.O expects to deliver 2 billion doses of vaccines by end 2021:

According to a News Release of July 15, 2020, by the World Trade Organization (W.H.O): ‘Seventy-five countries have submitted expressions of interest to protect their populations and those of other nations through joining the COVAX Facility, which aims to:

  • Accelerate the development and manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines.
  • Guarantee fair and equitable access for every country in the world.

The goal of COVAX is to deliver two billion doses of safe, effective vaccines that have passed regulatory approval and/or WHO pre-qualification, by the end of 2021. Besides W.H.O, other experts are also cautiously optimistic about the availability of Coronavirus vaccines ‘soon’. Here also the question may crop up: how soon is ‘soon’?

How soon is ‘soon’ – for sooner availability of Covid-19 vaccines?

Experts have opined, a vaccine would normally take years, if not decades, to develop. However, in this unprecedented global health crisis, researchers hope to achieve the same amount of work in only a few months, following the ‘fast track’ regulatory pathway. Let me give a sense of the prevailing buzz around the availability of some of these vaccines.

Going by what the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Serum Institute of India said about Oxford-AstraZeneca developed vaccine, many expect their availability by the end of the current year in India. The Company CEO, reportedly, said on July 22, 2020: “By November, we hope to launch the vaccine if the trials are positive and if the Drug Controller of India blesses it and says it is safe and effective.”

Further, on July 28, 2020, Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. also launched two 30,000-subject trials of Covid-19 vaccines that could clear the way for regulatory approval and widespread use by the end of this year, as the companies announced. Notably, both vaccine candidates rely on a new technology that allows for faster development and manufacturing than traditional vaccine production methods, but does not have an extensive track record.

According to another report of July 30, 2020, Russia said, the world’s first COVID19 vaccine to be ready by August 12, 2020. The vaccine is being developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology.

India’s indigenous experimental Coronavirus covid19 vaccine candidate, developed by Bharat Biotech, is also undergoing phase 1 and Phase 2 trials at 12 sites spanning across India. The initial results are positive. Earlier, ICMR had announced its launch on August 15, 2020. However, specialists in this area feel, ‘the August 15 timeline seems totally unrealistic, if not entirely impossible.’

Be that as it may, most experts still think a vaccine is likely to become widely available by mid-2021, about 12-18 months after the new virus, known officially as Sars-CoV-2, first emerged. Bringing to the market a Covid-19 vaccine, no doubt, will be considered as a ‘huge scientific feat,’ but ‘there are no guarantees it will work’ for all. It’s also a point to ponder that ‘Coronaviruses already circulate in human beings. They cause common cold symptoms and we don’t have vaccines for any of them’ just yet, as the report highlights.

It’s, therefore, a clear possibility that a well-documented, safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine may not be available, at least, in the next 6 months. Moreover, access to an affordable Coronavirus vaccine by the global population will also not happen in a jiffy. In that case, it is encouraging to note that other cutting-edge technological initiatives are also moving ahead with a great speed, to bring the rapid transmission of the new Coronavirus under a tight leash.

Novel, non-medical tech initiatives to contain the Covid-19 spread:

As potentially lethal Covid-19 is overwhelming the world, besides search for new drugs, faster diagnosis to fight the infection – and most effective preventive measure – vaccines, several non-medical tech initiatives are also underway. Many of these are quietly heading forward in search of user-friendly solutions, not just to ‘take the pressure off overworked health care workers’, but also ‘to stop the spread of the disease.’ These are all running parallel to offer technology driven disease treatment-options during this global health crisis.

An interesting paper from the European Parliamentary Research Sevice (EPRS), also vindicates some critical developments in this area. It focuses on technology-based solutions for various pressing pandemic-related problems. Let me illustrate this point with one example each, in the areas of ‘taking the pressure off overworked health care workers’, and in ‘stopping the spread of the disease.’

Technology to ‘take the pressure off overworked health care workers’:

Even in India, one hears quite a lot about the hardship of overworked health care workers. Various unconventional ways were also prescribed for the nation to encourage them. Some of these aren’t inexpensive, either. From this perspective, one such application is robotics technology. It can be effectively used as an intelligent solution to reduce the risk of person-to-person transmission − especially in pandemic hotspots. As the above EPRS article highlighted, many countries are now deploying robots in other areas also to ‘take the pressure off overworked health care workers,’ such as:

  • To disinfect whole hospitals,
  • Decontaminate public and private sites,
  • Handle biohazardous waste,
  • Deliver food and medication to infected patients,
  • Taking patients ‘ temperatures and act as medical assistants.

For example, an Israeli-made AI-powered robot assistant is, reportedly, being used in hundreds of hospitals, medical centers, nursing homes, and corporate buildings in Asia. This is to help minimize human-to-human contact as millions of people take precautions due to the novel Coronavirus outbreak worldwide. By the way, Israel is now a good friend of India, too.

Technology ‘to stop the spread of the disease’:

On June 01, 2020, Science Daily reported, the researchers at Penn State, the University of Minnesota and two Japanese universities, have found that a personal, handheld device emitting high-intensity ultraviolet light to disinfect areas by killing the novel Coronavirus, is now feasible.

Another report of July 10, 2020 also brought to the fore that the researchers from the University of Houston have created a new air filter that virus tests at the Galveston National Laboratory found can kill 99.8 percent of COVID-19 instantly. The filter could be useful for killing COVID-19 in public places, such as, in airports and airplanes, in office buildings, schools and cruise ships, besides other closed spaces such as schools, hospitals and health care facilities. Thus, the ability of this “catch and kill” air filter to control the spread of the virus could be very useful for society,” confirmed another report.

On July 29, 2020, an Indian business news daily wrote, ‘Bengaluru-based Organization De Scalene has received clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and the European Union to license and manufacture Scalene Hypercharge Corona Canon (Shycocan).’ The device disables the virus’ capability to infect, by flooding electrons in closed areas. It is claimed that Shycocan ‘has the ability to neutralize 99.9% of the Coronavirus that might be floating in the air in closed spaces.’

Although, it is not an alternative to medicines that can cure infected people or preventive vaccines, the device can be used to keep Covid-19 at bay, at least, till vaccines arrive. Thus, going by these developments, one gets a sense of various non-medical technological activities post Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. Especially about, how today’s technological whiz kids are working alongside the medical scientists to take the sting out of Covid-19 onslaught.

Conclusion:

The Lancet article – ‘Applications of digital technology in COVID-19 pandemic planning and response,’ published on June 29, 2020, also made similar observations. It said: ‘With high transmissibility and no effective vaccine or therapy, COVID-19 is now a global pandemic.’ In this scenario, to contain the spread of a highly transmissible virus, countries that have quickly deployed digital technologies in various critical areas to contain the spread of the infection, may emerge as front-runners in managing disease burden, the paper concluded.

As of August 02, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases in India reached a staggering 1,751,919 with 37,403 deaths. Recent Sero-surveys also show COVID-19 peaks in the country is still far away. It is very likely that a vast majority of the population will survive the Covid-19 catastrophe, even if only the existing systems are followed. But, just surviving is neither the reason nor the purpose of life. What most people want today is finding out a comprehensive way for – ‘jaan bhi and jahan bhi’ (life also, the world also).

Understandably, on July 31, 2020, W.H.O has also reiterated: “The pandemic is a once-in-a-century health crisis, the effects of which will be felt for decades to come.” Under this backdrop, unleashing the potential of new non-medical digital tools, as illustrated above, seem to be of immense benefit – not just to protect many more people from the infection, but also to neutralize Covid-19 effectively, especially in India.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Time For Pharma To Leverage ‘The Break In The Clouds’

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A ‘break in the clouds’ is now clearly visible in the dark and overcast sky – witnessing a global havoc caused by the Coronavirus pandemic in the healthcare space – with its severe socioeconomic consequences. The name of the game to combat this gargantuan crisis in a heavily restricted environment with success, is adding ‘error-free speed’ in all aspects of the planned countermeasures.

This isn’t a very easy task, either. And certainly, is possible with well-integrated digital interventions. From this perspective, one can construe this situation as ‘break in the clouds’ that can be leveraged by pharma companies for digital transformation of their respective business operations.

It may also be interpreted as a blessing in disguise, because such transformation will empower the companies to take appropriate effective measures with speed. When effectively leveraged, such strategic steps will help pharma players in two ways. One, to contain the virus spread while ensuring access to care through business operations. And the second, will help propel the organization to move ahead, even within such a crisis. However, the ‘Digitalization’ process is multifaceted, having, at least two fundamental prerequisites. In this article, I shall focus on this strategic space.

Alternative ways to provide health care is fast gaining ground:

The product and service delivery models of pharma companies are generally built around the concept of physical presence of patients while consulting a doctor or other health care providers. However, Coronavirus pandemic has triggered some significant changes in this area. Let me illustrate this point with some contemporary references.

As the recent L.E.K paper – ‘COVID-19 and the Acceleration of Digital Health in APAC’ emphasized – ‘by sheer necessity, governments and regulators have also reduced the barriers to participation and uptake for remote engagement of consumers, enabling access to care despite social distancing measures,’ during the pandemic. Moreover, a technical guidance paper, published by the World Health Organization (W.H.O) on April 1, 2020 on strengthening health systems against COVID-19, also recognizes ‘telemedicine’ as an alternative model for delivery of care to ensure the continuous running of essential health care.

COVID-19 will take health system digitalization to a new level:

The above L.E.K paper also pointed out – in the days and months ahead, COVID-19 will accelerate the ‘digitalization’ of health systems to a new level. Especially when, healthcare stakeholders adopt a more urgent, no-holds-barred strategy to stem the rising tide of infections. L.E.K article predicted, the new ways of working and behaviors, forged and refined in the heat of battle against COVID-19, will not be easily put “back in the box.” Consequently, this increasingly digitalized reality will force a paradigm shift in the healthcare ecosystem, the paper concluded.

‘A virtually perfect solution’ to neutralize Covid-19 impact: 

Another paper - ‘Virtually Perfect? Telemedicine for Covid-19,’ published in the NEJM on April 30, 2020 wrote, disasters and pandemics pose unique challenges to health care delivery. It underscored, ‘Though telehealth will not solve them all, it’s well suited for scenarios in which infrastructure remains intact and clinicians are available to see patients.’ It also indicated, telemedicine may be a virtually perfect solution, particularly where such infrastructure is available.

‘Governments must reimagine healthcare delivery’:

That ‘Telemedicine can be a COVID-19 game-changer’ - both now, and in a post-pandemic world, was also articulated by another article, published by the World Economic Forum on May 13, 2020. It suggested: ‘Governments must reimagine healthcare delivery in the face of COVID-19.’

This is mainly because, hospitals and several other places where the COVID-19 battle is raging – have become risky places for both patients and healthcare workers. Although, several measures are being taken to limit transmission from such places, those are still ‘insufficient to stop overstretching of healthcare systems that were already overwhelmed before COVID-19,’ the article observed.

The good news is, in sync with the recommendation of the World Health Organization (W.H.O) for the use of telemedicine as an alternative model to boost clinical performance and optimize service delivery, India has also recognized its telemedicine facility. The Government finds it as ‘a blessing in disguise in time of Covid-19’ and has urged - ‘it’s already high time to recognize telemedicine as a mandatory technology for responding to the current pandemic.’

Health consumers started utilizing digital platforms during lockdown:

hanger, As I wrote in my article of April 27, 2020, being literally locked down at home, a good number of healthcare consumers in India, are utilizing innovative digital platforms, mostly for common illnesses or follow-up consultations, such as:

  • For medical consultation on digital platforms, e.g., Skype, Facetime etc.
  • Getting diagnostic tests done at home by requesting through digital apps,
  • Sending test reports to doctors digitally,
  • Getting doctor’s prescription through digital mode,
  • Ordering medicines through e-pharmacy apps by uploading prescriptions,
  • Getting medicines delivered at home after e-payment,
  • Repeating the same process whenever required.

I also mentioned there, the use of telemedicine in several different, unconventional formats, is also gaining momentum, signaling its greater potential in the years ahead. It seems a reality today, as strict compliance with ‘social distancing’ guidelines is one of the basic requirements of health safety for all.

Does pharma have any other prudent choice now to be effective?

Traditionally, health care industry almost in all countries, is structured on the model of in-person interactions between patients and their clinicians. As the article – ‘Covid-19 and Health Care’s Digital Revolution,’ published in the NEJM on June 04, 2020 wrote, ‘clinical workflows and economic incentives have largely been developed to support and reinforce a face-to-face model of care, resulting in the congregation of patients in emergency departments and waiting areas during this crisis.’

Realizing that this model of care contributes to the spread of the virus to uninfected individuals who are seeking evaluation, many health care consumers are now postponing the needed care or looking for a digital solution for common ailments, to begin with.

In this environment to be effective – pharma players don’t seem to have any other choice but to transform their business operations and scaling up operating systems with the power of digital technologies, as the article indicated. Although, some digital technologies, including telemedicine, have existed for decades, they have had poor penetration into the market for different considerations. But, it’s a transformed situation today, exhibiting a groundswell for the same.

Groundswell for digital transformation in pharma?

COVID-19 pandemic is creating a groundswell for an early digital transformation in the health care space where pharma industry plays a very critical role. If one observes carefully, it is not difficult to fathom the change in behavior and practices of health care consumers. Thus, it calls for commensurate changes in the operating models of the drug players, to keep the kettle boiling, at the very least.

Consequently, the need for integrated digital interventions, quite akin to ‘Zoom’ – replacing many long in-person meetings. Changes of such nature and significance won’t just come and go. These are here to stay to add speed, convenience and cost-effectiveness in business operations, even if Coronavirus disappears, eventually.

The shape and talent need of future organizations will be prompted by such changes, facilitated by digital technologies and Artificial Intelligence (AI). However, digital transformation isn’t just a ‘switch-on’ operation of drug companies, as and when they would wish. Moving towards this direction will call for an unbiased assessment of, at least two prerequisites, for each player.

Two important prerequisites:

As both personal lives and also the work lives of almost all professionals and entrepreneurs, along with the customer behavior, have metamorphosed significantly, commensurate changes need to be implemented in all these areas, urgently. One area where a quantum change has taken place almost unknowingly – mainly driven by the human instinct of survival in a crisis, is the use of various state-of-the-art digital platforms. These include, the way businesses and professionals interact with each other for productive engagements.

Many studies have unraveled this process, such as the one – ‘Seizing the moment in digital’, published in the eye for pharma on May 28, 2020. It underscores two critical prerequisites for any digital transformation of businesses. These are to assess – first, how compatible will this transformation be with the existing organization culture and the same of its top leadership.

If any barrier surfaces, the organization would need to ask, whether its business is ready for a commensurate cultural transformation to make it work productively. The second one is, the capability – it may not be just the technical capability – internal or outsourced to go digital, but more importantly, the capability to run the transformed business to fetch desired results.

Conclusion:

The world is still in the midst of a global crisis, triggered by the Coronavirus pandemic. It is quite far from even plateauing in India. As on July 5, 2020 morning, crossing half a million mark, the recorded Coronavirus cases in the country have reached 673,904 with 19,279 deaths. And its climb continues.

Thus, amid a virtually unfathomable Covid-19 crisis, it will be foolhardy to predict what will happen next. However, as one joins the dots of some significant development, a perceptible trend emerges through the break in the clouds. This is unlikely to vanish anytime soon, and is very likely to be a new normal. Many articles from various thought leaders, such as one of McKinsey Digital - ‘The COVID-19 recovery will be digital’, published on May 14, 2020, vindicated a ground swell for the same. Yet another interesting article of May 11, 2020, termed the Covid-19 pandemic as a black swan event – ‘pushing towards a digital future.’

That said, digital transformation for a drug player will call for an unbiased assessment of two critical prerequisites – culture and capability, to deliver a meaningful outcome. Be that as it may, all indicators confirm that this is undoubtedly a critical time for pharma to leverage the ‘break in the clouds’ in pursuit of excellence – in the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Time For Predictive Rather Than Reactive Pharma Strategy

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Traditionally, pharmaceutical industry, across the world, is mostly reactive – rather than proactive or predictive in its strategic approach – spanning across all its business domains. A large number of pharma players – both innovators and generic drug makers, formulate their business strategy – generally reacting to competition, changing market dynamics and patient/ doctor /other stakeholder preferences. The same is being witnessed even during Covid-19 pandemic. However, this trend seems to be more prevalent in India – as one looks around.

For example, in R&D – be it a statin drug, proton pump inhibitors and right up to monoclonal antibodies or cancer immunotherapies – after a first-in-class molecule comes, a plethora of ‘me-too’ – but patented molecules soon follow. A comparable trend in the generic drug categories is also all-pervasive, including fixed-dose combinations (FDCs).

Similarly, even in the good old days of sales and marketing, we have seen – after the first product detailing folder was successfully introduced by a leading pharma company in India, how competition lapped the concept up – considering this change as a magic wand for brand demand generation!

In recent days, a similar trend is surfacing for ‘Digitalization’ of pharma business, mostly reacting to the changing practices of key competitors, or involving patients or doctors’ preferences. It gets reflected in other business domains, as well. With this perspective, in this article, I shall deliberate on this area, especially in view of the current situation.

Traditional ‘safe sailing’ is no longer an option:

The Coronavirus pandemic could be a stronger catalytic factor for the drug industry to initiate the much-desired transition from being reactive to predictive in its strategic business approach- faster. Interestingly, way back in June 2007, the PwC Whitepaper titled “Pharma 2020: The vision”, had also articulated: ‘The social, demographic and economic context in which the pharmaceutical industry (Pharma) operates is changing dramatically.’

Some drug players have already opted to transform their organizations in sync with the changes in the operating environment. But, a vast majority of them preferred to stick to the traditional reactive mindset, for a safe sail, as it were. However, this doesn’t seem to be an option, any longer. Be that as it may, there is nothing wrong in being reactive in strategic business practices, although formulating a predictive or proactive growth strategy demands more cerebral prowess and is much different from the reactive ones.

The difference, I reckon, is similar to that of a leader and the followers, with nearly similar impact on overall corporate image and performance, besides a prime-mover advantage of the latter. Nevertheless, there could be a predictive approach even within a reactive approach to competition. To illustrate the point, let me cite an example related to ‘me-too’ – patented-drug development.

Making an overall reactive strategic approach proactive in nature: 

Among several examples of making a reactive strategic approach – proactive in nature with innovative goals, let me quote a very recent one. For decades, drug companies have been selling ‘me too’ but patented drugs, at prices similar to the original and ‘first-in-class’ drugs, which are successful and enjoying a market monopoly.

Moving away from this trend, a startup drug maker, reportedly, wants to disrupt the traditional pharma industry practices by delivering what most patients and healthcare stakeholders want. It has set a novel goal of becoming patient-centric in its offering by making innovative drugs available at affordable prices. The startup wants to achieve this objective ‘by changing long-held industry practices for developing, pricing, and selling slightly different versions of costly brand-name drugs.’

Accordingly, with a proactive or predictive approach within an overall ‘reactive’ trend, it wants to create a unique niche for itself. The entity ‘will focus on developing “me too” drugs, which imitate the biological functions of existing drugs, but use distinct molecular structures so they don’t infringe on existing drug patents.’

Evolving a new demand of value-based health care system:

During disruptive changes and uncertainties in the business environment, such as what is being experienced today, gaining actionable insight on how these changes will call for new strategies to excel, would require a predictive mindset. This is of critical importance, particularly when a new demand for a value-based health care system is fast unfolding. This subject was well deliberated also in the book – ‘Healthcare Disrupted: Next Generation Business Models and Strategies.’

About six years back what the authors of this book predicted, seems to be a reality today. They had said: The concept of “value” rules the day, undoubtedly. The transition from the old ‘fee-for-service’ to ‘fee for value’, is game changing. On the same subject, another article - Focus on Value 1: The “Tsunami of Change”, published in the ‘eye for pharma’ on March 22, 2026, quoted the authors of this book – explaining the scenario lucidly.

They said, today’s health care system is largely reactionary, as the health services react to the persistence of consumers, their phone calls, queuing for services, waiting in the waiting room and calls to healthcare insurers. Whereas, ‘tomorrow’s system would prompt the health care providers to answer a seemingly simple question: how will they become relevant to a customer group?

Even six years down the line, especially in the current global pandemic situation with an evolving demand of a value-based health care system, this concept remains so relevant, possibly more than ever before. That said, an unforeseen and unprecedented situation could also force a pharma player – already moving on a predictive strategic path, to choose a reactive path – mostly for survival and progress of business.

When a company moves into a ‘reactive’ path from a ‘predictive’ one:

Such instances are infrequent. But a major event like Covid -19 may give rise to such a situation. For example, in the Pharma and Biopharma R&D space, it happened and is still happening. As ‘Evaluate Vantage Covid-19 Report’ of April 16, 2020 highlighted, as follows:

‘Anyone thinking that 2020 might travel down a predictable path for the biopharma sector was swiftly disabused of this view in the opening weeks of the year. The Coronavirus pandemic has changed the focus for almost every drug developer, whether they are working on potential treatments or trying to keep their businesses on track – or both.’ Good or bad, this is the reality today.

However, many of these organizations are unlikely to jettison their well-thought out ‘predictive’ pathway and are expected to soon find ways to move back to it. Thus, the question that one may pose, how does a company move into a predictive pathway from a reactive one? And particularly considering, if Covid-19 pandemic has caused some irreversible changes, or even – a long-term change in the business environment.

Getting back to predictive strategic path from a reactive one:

This issue was also covered in the article – ‘Three Proactive Response Strategies to COVID-19 Business Challenges,’ published in the MIT Sloan Management Review, on April 17, 2020. It wrote, as organizations move from a reactive to a proactive approach to dealing with COVID-19, they should ask themselves the following three questions:

  • Can we offer a version of our products and/or services through an online channel? Going online is the closest equivalent to low-hanging fruit in the current environment.
  • Can we use our existing infrastructure to produce products and/or offer services that are in demand?  Many organizations have allocated infrastructure to produce goods and services to support the fight against COVID-19, but some strategic companies would think beyond the crisis to future changes in consumer needs.
  • How can we rapidly increase our capacity to produce and distribute on-demand products and/or services?  Turning to partnerships with other companies can boost capacity in a crunch situation, such as today.

The need for collaboration, in such extraordinary situation, has also been underscored by the European Pharmaceutical Review. It pointed out - how academia, government and the pharmaceutical industry can work together to potentially ‘repurpose drugs’ for the treatment of COVID-19. This is another example of formulating a predictive growth strategy to create a win-win situation, while being in the midst of a reactive one.

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, despite national Lockdowns at a very early stage on March 24, 2020, India has now climbed up to occupy the fourth highest position in terms of the number of Coronavirus infected cases. Continuing the steep ascending trend, as on June 14, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases in the country reached 321,616 with 9,199 deaths.

During the current global pandemic of a humongous scale, drug companies are trying to respond to rapid challenges across their business operations, right from planned R&D programs to effectively maintaining supply chain, including manufacturing activities. If the current COVID-19 pandemic lasts for medium/long term, there could also be significant delays in the execution of various other ongoing projects/programs. This was the analysis of Deloitte in a paper, titled, ‘COVID-19 response for Pharma companies – Respond. Recover. Thrive’

While the full impact of the Coronavirus pandemic is still unknown, adopting a predictive strategy in the prevailing overall reactive environment, is expected to yield a significantly better business performance. As I said earlier, the core difference between adopting a ‘predictive’ and a ‘reactive’ business pathway, under the circumstances, is akin to the difference between a leader and a follower.

Unlocking the value innovation in all areas of pharma business is the name of the game, for excellence. Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) based contemporary ‘predictive’ tools will help pharma players break the new ground, even in such trying times. Coming from this perspective, a ‘predictive’ strategy rather than a ‘reactive’ one, apparently, is the demand of time – where we all are in – today.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Changing Doctors’ Practice Dynamics With Covid-19 And Beyond

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Unexpectedly, the answer to an onerous question surfaced just around a year’s time. In my article on this blog, written on April 08, 2019, I raised a question – “Would ‘Connected Healthcare’ Catch Pharma Players Off-Guard?” Interestingly, an unexpected and abrupt turn of events in the global healthcare space, including India, triggered by Covid-19 pandemic, signals an early dawn of an evolving reality, related to ‘Connected Healthcare’, in India.

Never ever, I reckon, the Government realized so well that continuation with a fragile public healthcare infrastructure is self-defeating for the country. Allocation of financial resources, at least 2.5 percent of the country’s GDP, for its rejuvenation – powered by AI-based modern digital technology, would help avoid overburden on the healthcare system. This will mean, saving more lives and also a significant reduction of morbidity, especially in a situation, like Covid-19 pandemic. Good health can propel good economy, more effectively.

That’s why, ‘connected healthcare’ – by effectively linking requisite ingredients of all health-related information that medical professionals and the patients would need, appears to be the new reality. This process is being facilitated by rapid acceleration of usage of various digital platforms, by both healthcare consumers and providers. Thus, it is becoming increasing clear now that leveraging digital technology with innovative mindset and a fresh pair of eyes, will be the way forward, in India, as well. It seems very likely, when considered from two angles:

  • What several research data reveals about an increase in usage of digital platforms by healthcare consumers and providers, before and during Covid-19 pandemic. Especially because, this struggle appears to be for a long haul.
  • Most countries are currently struggling to navigate through highly contagious Covid-19 outbreak and simultaneously trying to chart a workable pathway for avoiding similar eventualities in the future.

In this article, I shall try to focus on Covid-19 induced changes in doctors’ practice dynamics – based on research studies, while revisiting the subject on ‘connected healthcare,’ and its relevance now – also in the years ahead.

Research studies capture a new and growing awareness: 

The recent findings from the “Digital Doctor 2020” survey, which is a ‘21-country study of Doctors’ perspectives on digital and connected health, highlight some interesting points. This study was conducted just before the global outbreak of Coronavirus. Some of its findings were also deliberated inan article published in the PharmExec.com on April 23, 2020. The paper is titled, ‘How Prepared Were Physicians for the COVID-19 Digital Upswing? Some of the key points, as reported, are worth noting:

  • Although, the awareness of drug prescribers of different digital technologies related to healthcare is high, how these technologies work in healthcare was unknown to many doctors at the time of the Digital Doctor 2020 survey. It came out that clear benefit statements, will be welcomed when there is such a steep learning curve.
  • Regardless of face-to-face interactions still remaining preferred choice before the pandemic, online channels are on the rise and accelerating with COVID-19 lockdown.
  • Benefits of using connected health devices for patient management and treatment are widely recognized and is believed to play a key role in the future. The respondents agree, even their patients are now more interested in their own health data, as they are gaining control over their weight, diet and physical activities.

Highlighting that their research data over the last few weeks showing increasing usage of digital solution to respond and adapt to the new realities of Covid-19 pandemic, the author of the article concluded: ‘For a long time, digital solutions have often been considered an option; now they have become a necessity.’ To understand the emerging scenario, let us now look at the preferred communication channels of the doctors – pre-Covid-19 outbreak. 

Preferred channels of doctors pre-Covid-19 outbreak:

According to the Ipsos survey of pre-Covid-19 outbreak, face-to-face communication with Medical Representatives (MR) used to be the most favored channel of the doctors, as follows:

Channel Med. Rep Speaker Program Conf. E-detail Journal Ads Med. Liaison E-mail Direct mail Pharma website
Pref. % 35.2 11.7 10.0 8.4 8.4 8.8 8.4 5.0 4.1

However, on April 14, 2020, Ipsos shared the results of their interim research conducted, together with M360, among doctors, conducted during Coronavirus outbreak. The preliminary findings indicate, Covid-19 will permanently alter physician practice dynamics. A clear shift in the engagement model with them – away from in-person detailing, throws several significant questions on the traditional physician engagement template of the pharma players.

It also signals another fundamental change in the physicians’ practice dynamics, as Covid-19 seems to have changed practicality of having face-to-face communication between the representatives and doctors, as before. This situation makes ‘connected healthcare’ a reality – as we move deeper into the everyday- evolving scenario.

Some unexpected and significant changes surfaced in a month: 

The above research also flagged, the following two important changes, among several others, triggered by the Coronavirus outbreak:

  • The mean number of sales representative visits dropped from 15.7 before the Coronavirus outbreak to 1.3 in just the following month, during the pandemic 
  • Overall preference and effectiveness of e-detailing also improved, significantly, where any non-personal communication and interaction with drug companies, either through sales representatives or by others, were considered as e-detailing. 

This brings me back to the question, how are doctors feeling about this never before shift in their practice dynamics?

How are doctors feeling about a never before shift in their practice dynamics?

The ongoing research on this critical area captures a new reality, where many doctors, especially those who are not directly engaged in combating the Covid-19 pandemic, are clearly feeling a shift in their practice dynamics. Curiously, the new feeling of a shift also includes, the way these doctors interact with different drug companies, mostly through their Medical Representatives.

These inklings of the doctors are expected to get translated into some fundamental changes in the real-life situation, as we all sail through the life-changing time caused by Covid-19. Especially, considering the requirements of a new normal – social distancing, wearing a mask always while on outdoor, and several other norms as prescribed from time to time.

‘Connected healthcare,’ is expected to take its place on the center stage:

In this situation, ‘connected healthcare,’ which used to be more discussed than practiced, is expected to take its place on the center stage. It is necessary in the present situation for remote consultations, primarily for chronic ailments – for effective disease management and treatment. More so, as in the current situation individual health awareness of a large population, even in India, is increasing with an accelerated speed, perhaps more than ever before.

Thus, this is the right time to focus on ‘connected healthcare’, powered by AI-based digital technology. It has immense potential to help the Indian population getting immediate medical attention at a lower cost, with an improved access, for all. Though these are early days, it appears the ball has started rolling in the right direction, as the recent draft guidelines of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) indicates: ‘Patient can WhatsApp, SMS or email consent for Covid-19 clinical trials.’

Conclusion:

Still today, there is no sign of even temporary flattening the disease progression curve in India. As on May 10, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases continue to climb sharply to 62,939 with 2,109 deaths, which is rising in India faster than most other countries. On May 07, 2020, AIIMS director again warned that Covid-19 pandemic is yet to peak in the country. “According to modeling data and the way our cases are increasing, it is likely that peak can come in June and July,” he added.

But is it getting worse? Despite stringent lockdown, there has been a surge in cases, which can also be attributed to higher levels of testing. However, from a doubling rate of 11.5 days on May 3, it has shortened to 10.3 days, which means that cases are doubling in quicker time. Each set of 10,000 cases is now increasing at a more rapid pace than the preceding set, highlighted an editorial of a leading news daily.

With a vaccine still elusive, the government had been banking mostly on the lockdown to break the chain of transmission of the virus. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said: ‘Deliberately infecting healthy people with Coronavirus may speed Covid vaccine studies,’ reflecting more uncertainties in this area. It is also not likely that the country will cease to have any problems with its fragile public healthcare infrastructure and delivery system, even after flattening the disease progression curve.

Along with many other Covid-19 induced life-impacting changes, doctors’ practice dynamics are also expected to undergo a metamorphosis, lasting for an indefinite period. Consequently, I reckon, it’s about time, even for the pharma industry to voluntarily adopt ‘connected healthcare’ as a future way of life. One can get a glimpse of it in the Covid-19 clinical trial draft guidelines of the ICMR. Nonetheless, ‘connected healthcare’ comes with a clear signal of reducing the cost of healthcare and improved patient access, having the potential to effectively mitigate a sizeable part of the precipitated healthcare crisis, caused by Coronavirus.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Post Covid-19 Lockdown: Is Pharma Industry Ready?

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It’s over a month now since national lockdown in India came into force to win the war against Covid-19. Many promises and apprehensions about whether or not Covid-19 will keep ravaging human life, continue surfacing. As it appears today, whatever best happens post May 03, 2020, the Coronavirus outbreak is going to change the way we live and the businesses used to operate, in many respects, till an effective vaccine comes, at the very least. This change also includes the health care, in general, and the pharmaceutical industry, in particular.

It is obvious now that Covid-19 will stalk the planet for a long time to come. On April 22, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) also reiterated: ‘Make no mistake, Coronavirus will be with us for a long time.’ This vindicates many apprehensions against an early promise of winning the Covid19 war decisively in 21-days or even by May 03, 2020, or whenever the national lockdown is phased-out in a calibrated manner. Further, W.H.O has also cautioned: “Most countries are still in the early stages of their epidemics. And some that were affected early in the pandemic are now starting to see a resurgence in cases.”

As on April 26, 2020, the recorded Coronavirus cases in India has sharply climbed to 26,496 and 825 deaths, with the Union Health Ministry saying on April 23, 2020: ‘Doubling rate of Covid-19 cases in country is now 10 days.’ Whereas, on the same day, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) also said, ‘for now, it is very difficult to tell when a peak state of COVID-19 pandemic in the country will arrive.’

The life-changing disruptions that Covid19 has caused, and may continue to cause in the near future, has apparently made a significant impact, also on how the healthcare consumers think about the available disease treatment solutions, including buying medicines. Thus, in this article, I shall, focus on this area.

Why winning the Covid-19 war can’t be immediate: 

Covid-19 pandemic brought the drug industry under a sharp focus of the entire world, with an expectation to win the war against this deadly and invisible virus. This solution could be anything – an effective prevention, such as, with a vaccine, or a curing the infection with a drug, or even a mechanism that is able to make the virus less contagious. There are still no scientifically proven and approved drugs or vaccines for Covid-19. Although, many trial and error experiments are in progress, mainly based on anecdotes and gut-feeling, for the respiratory disease caused by Coronavirus.

The good news is, since January 2020, after scientists in China provided the virus’s genetic sequence, over 40 teams of global drug companies and the academia, are working on a vaccine and drugs for Covid-19. As of now, six Coronavirus vaccines are on clinical trial. Last Thursday, human safety trial of Oxford University developed Covid-19 vaccine, with the first two of 800 healthy volunteers, has commenced. Meanwhile, Serum Institute of India (SII) has tied-up with the Oxford University to manufacture the vaccine in India, if the trial succeeds.

Some bad news in this area also came by, such as, ‘remdesivir’ – the well-hyped drug, thought to be one of the best prospects for treating Covid-19, failed to have any effect during the first full trial. However, Gilead – the drug company developing this product has said, ‘the findings were inconclusive because the study was terminated early.’

The bottom-line is, although, first tests for more new vaccines may commence within a few months, the final regulatory approval of these will take much longer - at least 18 months, i.e. not before 2022, according to W.H.O. Meanwhile, some disruptive changes within current health care delivery systems, involving both behavior and transaction practices of key stakeholders, may prompt equally disruptive changes in the Indian health care delivery mechanisms. These changes are likely to have unforeseen impact on several pharma operations, critical for business excellence in the drug industry.

Commonly followed procedures for the Indian healthcare system:

The procedures that most health care consumers currently follow for healthcare in India, require patients to be physically present in most touchpoints of a disease treatment process. These include, doctors, chemist shops, hospitals, diagnostic clinics, among others. During the national lockdown period, redressal of non-Covid-19 related common health issues, has been a great challenge for many people, such as:

  • visiting a doctor
  • going to a hospital outdoor
  • procurement of medicines from retail shops for chronic conditions
  • visiting a diagnostic clinic even for follow-up – previously advised by a doctor

This happened primarily due to the need of compliance of social distancing and mostly out of fear of getting the Covid-19 infection. Fortunately, the available digital platforms to address the pressing common health issues, proved to be of immense help to many.

Pharma business has also been greatly impacted: 

Driven by initial panic buying of regular medicines by the people, for the lockdown period and may be beyond, monthly sales of pharma might show a spurt. But, that is unlikely to be the real picture for a medium to long term. Otherwise, like many other industry sectors, pharma business has also been greatly impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak, across its various domains – right from planned R&D – through manufacturing, sales and marketing – to supply chain.

The early adopters to the new normal will be the outright winners:

For example, meeting a doctor for product detailing following the conventional chain of activities, and simultaneously maintaining strict ‘personal distancing’ or ‘social distancing norms, may not be the same again. The changes required by the pharma companies to make this process effective and productive, may also be disruptive in nature.

No-one can accurately predict toady, how exactly the important business operations can be resumed, ensuring full health-safety for all and with compromising on the effectiveness and productivity of business. Nevertheless, one thing for sure, lockdown during Covid-19 pandemic has brought the possibility and the opportunity of going digital to the fore, for both – the healthcare business and also its consumers, including various other stakeholders. The early adopters to the new normal are expected to be the outright winners.

Green shoots of digitalization within healthcare consumers and providers: 

As digital transformation at health care consumers and providers level, gain a critical mass, the healthcare business would require to be not just digitalized, but also digitally innovative. The situation would demand from them to be much more ‘customer centric’ on digital platforms, as the locked down – homebound health care consumers, complying with ‘social distancing’ norms, get increasingly more digitally empowered.

Bain & Company in its March 20 ‘Brief’, titled ‘How the Coronavirus Will Transform Healthcare in China,’ discussed some of these issues from China perspective, which are already visible there. To illustrate this point in this deliberation from the Indian perspective, let me draw examples from the country’s health care consumers’ standpoint.

Is the traditional health care system slowly undergoing a metamorphosis?

The overall impact of Covid-19 outbreak in India has made visiting general practitioner’s (GP) clinics, pathological labs or even hospital emergency facilities, a tough challenge for many patients. This is primarily out of fear of getting a Coronavirus infection from others during the process, with strict compliance to ‘social distancing’ becoming a top priority for many. Consequently, traditional healthcare related activities in India, is likely to undergo an early metamorphosis.

Being literally locked down at home, a good number of healthcare consumers in India, are utilizing innovative digital platforms, for common illnesses or follow-up consultations, such as:

  • for medical consultation on digital platforms, e.g., Skype, Facetime etc.
  • getting diagnostic tests done at home by requesting through digital apps,
  • sending test reports to doctors digitally,
  • getting doctors prescription through digital mode,
  • ordering medicines through e-pharmacy apps by uploading prescriptions,
  • getting medicines delivered at home after e-payment,
  • repeating the same process whenever required.

An upside of the situation: 

The upside of the situation is, these patients are feeling more digitally empowered and self-reliant to get non-too-serious ailments addressed against all odds. Some of these practices, such as, online consultation with doctors, getting most of the medical tests done at home, buying medicines through e-pharmacies, I reckon, may continue even after calibrated withdrawal of the national lockdown in India.  The net impact of all could trigger a meaningful attitudinal change in patients, especially towards health care delivery processes, in general.

The healthcare industry is ready to log on to this digital mode? 

Many early adopters in the global pharma industry, are going for digitalization within various functional domains of the company, at a varying scale. This has started happening in India, as well. However, as social distancing becomes the new normal in the foreseeable future, how prepared are the pharma companies to adopt themselves with the increasing number of digitally empowered consumers, is still unclear. More importantly, how will the industry meet new demands at various points of transaction and interaction with various critical stakeholders, such as, doctors, in the post Covid-19 eraof social distancing, ensuring health safety of all?

Another requirement that should form the bedrock of the grand integrated corporate strategy of a customer-centric pharma business, necessarily, in the changing times. This is – all decisions in this area must be based on a huge pool of contemporary data, analyzed by sophisticated data analytics and thereafter, the strategic and tactical pathways need to be charted, desirably, through skillful application of Artificial Intelligence (AI), because of evolving complex and multi-dimensional health care needs of the consumers.

Alongside, telemedicine in different new formats – even for GP level consultations, besides, drug procurement through e-payment from approved e-pharmacies by uploading doctor prescriptions, signal a great potential in the years ahead. This appears to be very close to reality, especially, going by the W.H.O prediction for a long-haul Covid-19 battle, where compliance with ‘social distancing,’ is one of the basic requirements of health safety for all.

Conclusion:

‘Month of lockdown impedes virus – a long battle lies ahead’. As the former President of the Unites States twitted on April 25, 2020, ‘If we want life to approach anything like normal anytime soon, we need a comprehensive testing program. It’s not going to be cheap, but it will ultimately pay off many times over in saved lives, saved businesses, and saved jobs.’

In any case the crux of the matter is, Covid-19 is not going to vanish soon, even after scaling down of the lockdown in a calibrated way. Moreover, the fear, if not the panic of a large population in India and around the world, on the possibility of getting infected by Covid-19, will continue – till one does not get vaccinated or acquire ‘herd immunity’ in a different way. Meanwhile, related behavioral changes and habits, of a large number of people, including health care consumers, will continue taking place.

From this perspective, besides the existing ones, once the lockdown-period-converted ‘e-consumers’ of health care get used to the new digital mode of availing healthcare services against e-payments, it could have a snowballing impact on many others. That will help usher in a new paradigm of medical consultation, follow-up interaction, disease diagnosis, drug procurement and all related transactions, through digital platforms.

Having experienced the convenience and user-friendliness of the digital mode, during an extended period of social or physical distancing and other new normal, instead of time-consuming legwork, it seems unlikely that the majority will try to go back to the traditional mode of pre-Covid 19 era. In that situation pharma companies will have no option but to necessarily re-engineer the business operations, bringing disruptive digitalization at the center of any strategy formulation related to mainly patients and doctors, besides others.

Covid-19 prompted lockdown and the post lockdown period, I reckon, is unlikely to be a ‘switch-off’ and ‘switch-on’ type of a situation for anyone or any industry, as threat of getting Coronavirus infected will continue for quite some time. The need of the hour for pharma players in India, therefore, is gaining deep insight, through continuous data capturing and analysis, on each component of the changing market dynamics – prompted by Coronavirus pandemic. The point to ponder, therefore, is pharma industry getting ready for a possible disruptive change in the future environment?

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Acid Test For Excellence in Crisis Leadership

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On April 12, 2020 – in the morning of the day 19 of the national lockdown, India’s total number of Coronavirus positive cases reached 8,504 with 289 deaths. The country’s trajectory is reportedly  steeper than most Asian peers, such as Singapore, Japan, and Indonesia. Incidences of new infections and deaths are also rising faster. The report also highlighted a possible link between number of tests conducted and the number of confirmed cases across the States. The aggregated impact of Covid19 outbreak has created an unprecedented health, social and economic calamity, changing everybody’s life – now and beyond.

However, going by Prime Minister Modi’s announcement on March 24, 2020, the national lockdown to contain the pandemic should continue till April 14, 2020. But, the above scenario is creating a huge dilemma within almost all Coronavirus crisis management leadership in the States, with the final decision resting upon the Prime Minister of India. Meanwhile, on April 09, 2020, Odisha government decided to extend the lockdown until April 30, followed by Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telengana on April 11, 2020. However, all will get to know India’s decision in this regard for the rest of India, as you read this piece today.

The top leaders of Asia, Europe and American continents are handling the grave situation differently, with a varying degree of success, so far. Everybody is watching different world leaders in action – each trying hard to gain control over the unprecedented crisis, making it an acid test for excellence in Crisis Leadership.

Three different types of needs for the country:

As I see, three specific types of needs of three specific classes of people in the social milieu, are emerging in India:

  • Only need is to save life from the disease, with not much problem in procuring other essential requirements – having enough wherewithal to pull through the critical period, better than most others.
  • Strong need exists to save life, but facing tough challenges in arranging for essential needs for daily living.
  • Need to save life, but feel desperate for the means of livelihood – to protect family and defendants from hunger, in a seemingly uncertain future.

In the current situation, while trying to contain the spread of pandemic effectively, the sufferings of especially, the second and third group, as stated above, also need to be addressed, ‘and this is much aided by a participatory democracy.’

An acid test for crisis leadership at the top:

The situation isn’t just a war against Covid19, but much beyond that. The Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen at Harvard University  explained the situation so well in an article, published on April 08, 2020. He lucidly illustrated, that the needs of people in a natural calamity, such as Coronavirus caused a pandemic, are different from a conventional war – against an enemy country. Desirable leadership qualities are also significantly different.

As Professor Sen wrote, while managing a crisis situation during a conventional war, ‘a leader can use top-down power to order everyone to do what the leader wants – with no need for consultation.’ But, managing a crisis during a natural calamity, a leader should demonstrate skills for a ‘participatory governance and alert public discussion.’ Listening to public discussion makes the top leadership understand what needs to be done by the policy makers.

Another paper, titled “Steering Through the Storm,” published in the ‘People + Strategy’, also reiterated the same with different words. It emphasized, “during a crisis, like natural calamity, leaders should engage actively with their constituents whenever possible, distinguishing critical issues from less pressing needs, communicating risks, and maintaining readiness. Throughout the crisis, leaders should remain accessible and open to new sources of information, and take care of their own needs when necessary and appropriate.”

How different countries are demonstrating crisis leadership:

Like other countries, crisis leadership is now clearly visible even in India – right from 1 day ‘people’s curfew’, to the announcement of 21-day national lockdown for Covid19 outbreak. An interesting article, published in Forbes on March 10, 2020, deliberated on what China, Italy and the United States teach us about crisis leadership. These examples give a sense of how different countries, facing similar but country-specific problems with Covid19, reacted with remarkable ‘different approaches and results.’ I am paraphrasing below some recent illustrations on crisis leadership, as captured in the above paper:

China: China was the first country to face this calamity beginning in Wuhan of the Hubei province. With command and control leadership and decisive action China was able to immediately to garner and consolidate all its resources for an aggressive response. The World Health Organization called it as, “perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.” This includes closing down manufacturing sectors, sharing information widely, executing mass testing and quarantining millions of people. The Chinese government made the decision to absorb a significant economic cost to contain COVID-19 rather than potentially lose control and the result was effective - the number of new cases has steadily decreased in weeks’ time.

However, the downside of this type of leadership is the possible erosion of trust in the system. As the Atlantic documented, local Chinese officials reported the Covid19 outbreak to the federal government weeks after it began. They also understated the extent of the disease spread, until whistle-blowers stepped forward – and were subsequently punished. This delay probably cost China valuable time in containing the initial outbreak.

This demonstrates, under a command and control ‘crisis leadership’, when people are afraid to tell the truth and discouraged from speaking up, critical information may not reach leadership, until the problem intensifies, the paper added. That said, whether the COVID19 outbreak may have been contained earlier under different leadership conditions, cannot be concluded for sure, at least, in this case. However, official data release now shows more than doubling of new Coronavirus cases to 99 in Mainland China, on April 11, 2020. Moreover, newly reported asymptomatic Coronavirus cases also nearly doubled to 63 on the same day. Hence, the fire has still not been doused. The crisis lingers.

Italy: The catastrophic impact of Covid19 in Italy, helps identify some avoidable areas in ‘crisis leadership’. With rapidly changing and inconsistent messaging, the leaders possibly created panic and distrust among people of all kinds. The top leadership seems to have underestimated the potential spread of the virus, and was not acting in coordination with various groups and stakeholders to contain it, initially.

It happened, despite Italy is a democratic country, unlike China. But, the country, apparently, did not comply with the robust and critical ‘crisis leadership’ norm of fact-based ‘participatory governance and alert public discussion’, as discussed above. This reconfirms that ‘crisis leadership’ must be very careful in saying something they will end up contradicting later, while handling, especially a social calamity, like Covid19 outbreak.

The United States: With the fire of Covid19 outbreak spreading fast in the United States, one finds again, some basics of crisis management norms were missing in the top leadership of the oldest and a robust democracy of the world. Instead, President Trump demonstrated ‘a tendency to rely heavily on his inner circle rather than subject matter experts and to state opinions as facts.’ The President also contradicted experts on his own task force attempting to educate the public, most notably by consistently overstating the scientifically acknowledged timeline to create a vaccine and the preventive medicine combo. He also questioned the reported fatality rate of the virus.

This type of ‘crisis leadership’ is likely to fail in inspiring trust and confidence with the masses, the article concluded. This is evidenced by the current status of the country. The lethal firepower of Covid19 is still hitting the United States very hard, against all its might to fight the invisible enemy garnering all its resources and possibly taking more lives than what it lost, as on date, while fighting all its wars. As on April 11, 2020, the death toll from Coronavirus in the United States eclipsed Italy’s for the highest in the world, surpassing 20,000 marks.

Now let me focus on India, with my own assessment about the ‘crisis leadership’ while responding to this crisis, of course, initially.

India:

To get a perspective of Covid19 spread in South Asia on a relative yardstick, let’s look at the following Government released figures, as quoted in the Reuters report on April 08, 2020:

Country Ind Pak Afghan Sri Lanka Bangladesh Maldives Nepal Bhutan
Cases 5274 4072 444 189 218 19 9 5
Death 149 58 14 7 20 0 0 0

On April 11, 2020, the World Bank estimated, the ‘worst economic slump in South Asia in 40 years.’ Further, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and other three smaller nations, with 1.8 billion people and thickly populated cities, although have so far reported relatively few Coronavirus cases, could be the next hotspots for Covid19.

With this, let us look at the Covid19 narrative being unfolded in India, so far. In a lighter vein, following the interesting events with ‘sound’ and ‘light’, the ‘camera’ of time has indeed captured a commendable display of high quality ‘crisis leadership’ in India. Especially, under the given circumstances prevailing at that juncture. The leadership approach fits so well into one of the most critical requirements of crisis management – ‘participatory governance and alert public discussion.’

Even, some seemingly pointless events for some, at the end of the day, did raise morale of many in the fight against Covid19 outbreak, besides their level of participation and involvement in this crisis. Whether or not it is purely due to the personal charisma of the Prime Minister and his huge followings, also doesn’t matter much, as the point is, what really happened, instead of why it happened.

Besides, right from the declaration of ‘Peoples Curfew’ of March 22, 2020 to 21-day national lockdown, the Prime Minister has involved the State Chief Ministers, but also the leaders of opposition parties. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) is also visible in the forefront. The net result is the support that the Prime Minster is getting from all, despite hardship – an epitome of ‘crisis leadership,’ as on date.

Thus, the beginning has been laudable, especially when India had no option but to enforce a lockdown, in one form or the other, without having enough testing kits, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for healthcare manpower and required health care infrastructure for quarantine or isolation of people. Let me explain this point with a very recent example.

According to a recent report, Covid19 test guidelines presumed that most patients in India acquired the virus from their travels abroad, or from someone who travelled abroad. Accordingly, with a limited number of kits, tests were conducted to zero in on these patients, isolating and quarantining them, to curb the spread of the virus. very focused with lesser requirements of the testing kits.

However, the data compiled by ICMR from random Coronavirus tests on patients with severe respiratory diseases, indicate that 38 percent of Covid19 patients with no travel or contact history have contracted the virus. On April 10, 2020, the Government said that the testing has now been increased to 16000 from earlier 5000-6000 people per day. This raises the vital question: has Covid19 outbreak in India has progressed or progressing from stage 2 to stage 3 of the outbreak, or has the community spread of the disease begun, the last and final stage being stage 4 – the scary virtually uncontrolled Coronavirus outbreak? Alarmingly, as has been widely reported, even on April 12, 2020: ‘Coronavirus in India: Several targets missed, still no sign of rapid testing kits.’ Currently, ‘India ranks extremely low in the Coronavirus-hit countries list based on the number of tests done per million population.’

Thus, the declaration of 21-day national lockdown on March 24, 2020, at the early stage of the Coronavirus outbreak in India was an unprecedented decision. Besides, containing the rapid disease spread, it gave India a small time-space to prepare itself – with more testing kits, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for healthcare manpower and adequate number of high-quality – isolation, quarantine and treatment facilities, equipped the disease specific requirements, such as, ventilators.

No matter what, the decision for a 21-day nationwide complete lockdown, giving priority to life over livelihood was a tough call to take for any leader. It indeed was a part of the critical test for excellence in ‘crisis leadership,’ at that point of time.

Conclusion:

Be that as it may, as the saying goes ‘proof of the pudding is in the eating,’ the acid test for excellence in ‘crisis leadership’, obviously, will be based on the quality of outcomes and the time it will take. This will include multiple key factors, such as, the speed of health, social and economic turnaround of a country, which is sustainable. Nevertheless, the crisis is far from being over – anywhere in the world, just yet, and the jury is still out.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Multifaceted Coronavirus Narrative Raises Multiple Questions

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Last night, amid the national lockdown, many people followed Prime Minister Modi’s video message, broadcasted on April 03 at 9 am for all, ‘to challenge the darkness of Coronavirus together – with a Diya, candle, torch or flashlight, at 9 pm for 9 minutes, from their respective balconies.’ That was the 12th day of 21-day lockdown, when the deadly microbe – Covid19 infected, tested and detected cases climbed to 3,577 in the country, with the death toll rising to 83. This is against 564 - the total number of confirmed cases in India when the lockdown commenced on March 24, 2020.

With all this, a mind-boggling narrative is developing at an accelerating pace. It’s not just about the rogue microbe – rampaging the world hunting for its prey. But also pans over multiple dimensions of its fallout, impacting virtually everything, for all. People of all sections of the society are participating, deliberating or debating on this issue, as the invisible camera of destiny rolls on. Unprecedented!

That’s the real world where, despite fear of an unknown future, most people prefer freedom of expression while playing a constructive role in containing the menace, collectively. We are witnessing a similar scenario – the world over. But, more in the democratic nations. Relatively enlightened citizens will always want to participate in this emerging chronicle, shaping the overall narrative and help sharpening the nations Covid19 policy further – instead of being passive onlookers.

Meanwhile, the objective of maintaining physical distancing during 21-day national lockdown period and beyond must be achieved, regardless of any public discord on its mechanics. This has to happen, primarily because of the TINA factor. Likewise, it’s also a prerequisite that the lockdown is handled efficiently, with meticulous advance planning, deft and dignified handling of any situation, by all and for all. That said, the good news is, newer scientific, evidence-based data are revealing more actionable pathways, in this multifaceted narrative.

A multifaceted narrative raises multiple questions:

As I wrote above, Covid19 narrative is multifaceted and not just one dimensional. It’s true beyond doubt: ‘If there is life, there is the world.’ But, that has to be a life with dignity, a life that help protect families and facilitates contributing to the nation, in different ways – enabling a scope of fulfillment of all.

In this article, I shall, explore some important facets of the evolving narrative on the Covid19 outbreak to drive home this point. In that process some very valid questions, as raised by many, also deserve to be addressed. Some of these include:

  • Covid19 is a war like situation where no questions are asked about the strategic details of a warfare, why the same is not being followed today? In a war some collateral damages are inevitable, why so much of noises now?
  • Why has Covid19 created a general panic with stigma attached to it?  
  • Panic is avoidable, but is the threat real. If so, why?
  • Why people violating national lockdown by migrating from the job location to respective hometowns – increasing the risk of the disease spread, must be brought to their senses mostly through the harsh measures?
  • In the absence of any vaccine or an effective curative drug, why all decisions of policymakers must be blindly accepted by all, during national lockdown and maybe beyond, as if there is ‘not to reason why, but to do or die?’

Let me now explore each of these questions.

A war like situation?

No doubt Covid19 is a war like situation, but with some striking dissimilarities between a conventional war and this war. A conventional war is fought by a well-trained and well-armed defense forces with already developed a gamut, against a known and visible enemy nation.

Whereas, the war against Covid19 is against an invisible and unknown microbe’s sudden attack, being fought in India by a limited army of health care professionals and workers. They fight this war, mostly without adequate or no battle gear, like Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), testing kits and ventilators, supported by a fragile health care infrastructure.

Moreover, in the conventional warfare, the type of advance information and intelligence that the Governments usually possess against the enemy nations, can’t be matched by any private domain experts.

Whereas, Covid 19 still being a lesser known entity to medical scientists, as on date, the remedial measures are still evolving. Only scientific-evidence-based data can create actionable pathways for combat, spearheaded by the W.H.O. Thus, most people expect the nation to comply with, at least, the current W.H.O guidelines for health-safety of the population.

Further, in the cyberspace, several latest and highly credible research data are available for all. These are being well-covered by the global media as a part of the narrative. Thus, unlike conventional warfare, external experts may know as much, if not even more than the Government on Covid19.

Some avoidable show-stoppers:

There are several such avoidable show-stoppers. For example, when one reads news like, ‘Delhi Government Hospital Shut As Doctor Tests Positive For Coronavirus,’ or something like, ‘Indian doctors fight Coronavirus with raincoats, helmets amid lack of equipment,’ alongside a jaw-dropping one, ‘India Sends COVID-19 Protective Gear To Serbia Amid Huge Shortage At Home,’ chaos in the narrative takes place.

In the tough fight against Covid19 menace, these much avoidable fallout may be construed as show-stoppers, if not counterproductive. Many may advocate to pass a gag order against revelation of such difficult to understand developments, and keep those beyond any public discussion. Instead, why not order a transparent enquiry by independent experts to find facts – holding concerned people accountable?

Why has the disease created so much of panic with stigma attached to it?

This is intriguing because, according to the W.H.O – China Joint Mission report on COVID-19, around 80 percent of the 55924 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in China, had mild-to-moderate disease. This includes both non- pneumonia and pneumonia cases. While 13·8 percent developed severe disease, and 6·1 percent developed to a critical stage requiring intensive care.

Moreover, The Lancet paper of March 30, 2020 also highlighted, in all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China estimated case fatality ratio was of 3·67 percent. However, after demographic adjustment and under-ascertainment, the best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China was found to be of 1·38 percent, with substantially higher ratios in older age groups – 0·32 percent in those aged below 60 years versus 6·4 percent in those aged 60 years or more, up to 13·4 percent in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of the case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China, the paper underscored.

Even the Health Minister of India has emphasized, ‘around 80-85 percent of cases are likely to be mild.’ He also acknowledged: “My biggest challenge is to ensure that affected people are treated with compassion, and not stigmatized. This is also applicable for the health care workforce, which is working hard to counter this epidemic. It is through concerted, community-owned efforts, supported by the policies put in place by the government that we can contain this disease.” This subject, surely, needs to be debated by all, and effectively resolved.

Panic is avoidable, but does a real threat exist with Covid19?

As The Lancet paper of March 30, 2020 cautions by saying - although the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 is lower than some of the crude estimates made so far, with its rapid geographical spread observed to date, ‘COVID-19 represents a major global health threat in the coming weeks and months. Our estimate of the proportion of infected individuals requiring hospitalization, when combined with likely infection attack rates (around 50–80 percent), show that even the most advanced healthcare systems are likely to be overwhelmed. These estimates are therefore crucial to enable countries around the world to best prepare as the global pandemic continues to unfold.’ This facet of Covid19 also requires to be a part of the evolving narrative to mitigate the threat, collectively, with a robust and well thought out Plan A, Plan B, Plan C….

Violation of lockdown increases the risk manifold, but… 

There isn’t a shade of doubt even on this count, in any responsible citizen. Besides individual violation, recently a huge exodus of migrant laborer’s ignoring the lockdown raised the level of risk for others. This exodus should have been stopped at the very start, by better planning and with empathy and dignity by the law enforcing authorities, as many believe. Curiously, even the current Chief Justice of India (CJI) commented, on March 30, 2020: “The fear and the panic over the Coronavirus pandemic is bigger that the virus itself,” during a hearing on the exodus of migrant laborers from workplace to their respective hometowns, due to Covid19 lockdown.

To mitigate the risk, the CJI advised the Government to ensure calming down ‘the fear of migrants about their future, after being abruptly left without jobs or homes because of the 21-day lockdown to prevent the spread of Coronavirus.’ The Court felt, ‘the panic will destroy more lives than the virus.’ Thus, the Government should “ensure trained counsellors and community leaders of all faiths visit relief camps and prevent panic.”

The CJI also directed the Government to take care of food, shelter, nourishment and medical aid of the migrants who have been stopped. This appears to be the desirable pathway of preventing the migrant exodus, causing greater risk to people, requiring better planning, deft situation management with empathy and dignity, by the law enforcing authorities. However, individual violations, if any, can be addressed by intimately involving the civil society, against any possibility of the disease spread.

Whatever decision the policy makers take, must be blindly accepted by all:

In this area, all must first follow what the Government expects us to do. Maintaining strict compliance with such requirements. But, some people do ask, is it in total conformance with the steps W.H.O recommends following? At the March 30, 2020 issue of the Financial Times reported, the W.H.O’s health emergency program has outlined four factors that might contribute to the differing mortality rates in Covid19 outbreak:

  • Who becomes infected?
  • What stage the epidemic has reached in a country?
  • How much testing a country is doing?
  • How well different health care systems are coping?

Many members of the civil society are also keen to know these facts, and may want to seek clarification, if a gap exists anywhere. After all, Covid19 outbreak has brought to the fore, an unprecedented future uncertainty of unknown duration, involving not just life, but a sustainable livelihood and a dignified living in the future, for a very large global population, including India.

Conclusion:

There seems to be a dose of chaos in an otherwise reasonably controlled scenario. One option of looking at it as a pure law and order issue, which needs to be brought to order only with a heavy hand. The second option is to accept it as a golden opportunity to take all on board, by clearly explaining what people want to know – with reasons, patience, persuasion, empathy and compassion, as is happening in many countries.  Of course, without compromising on the urgency of the situation. This is a challenging task, but a sustainable one. Overcoming it successfully, will possibly be the acid test of true leadership, at all levels. However, the slowly unfolding narrative on the ground, doesn’t appear to be quite in sync with the second option.

In the largest democracy of the world, people want to get involved in a meaningful discussion on Covid19 crisis, collectively – based on evidence-based scientific data. Then, it’s up to the policy makers to decide what is right for the country and in which way to go. In tandem, fast evolving, multifaceted Coronavirus narrative, I reckon, will keep raising multiple questions.

As the disease spreads, the pathways of combating it decisively, is being charted by different experts, led by the World Health Organization (WHO). This is being widely covered by the mainstream global media, even in the din of a cacophony. Nonetheless, it is generally believed that a true relief will come, only after a vaccine is developed and made available and accessible to all sections of the world. Till such time a ‘hide and seek’ game, as it were, is expected to continue.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.