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Managing expectations of the emerging markets of the world, proactively, will differentiate winners from the rest, in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry.

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Change or Perish:In Mid 2007, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) recommended to the research-based global pharmaceutical companies that for sustainable business performance they should move a part of their expenditure from marketing to research. They also recommended that the drug prices should be related to incremental efficacy that the products would provide. That global pharmaceutical business model is “economically unsustainable and operationally incapable of acting quickly enough to produce the types of innovative treatments demanded by global markets” as a challenge of change, was forecasted in 2007 by PwC in their ‘Pharma 2020: The vision’, report.Fast evolving scenario:

The global pharmaceutical industry scenario is fast evolving. More drugs are going off patent than what the innovator companies can replace with the new products. The research is undoubtedly failing to deliver.

At the same time, the business growth in the developed markets of the world has been declining over a period of time. The growth in the top two pharmaceutical markets of the world viz, USA and Japan has gone negative. IMS predicted in their recent ‘CEO Conclave’ in Mumbai that negative trends in these markets will continue even beyond 2013.

In the same conclave IMS predicted that ‘Pharmerging’ markets and Venezuela will drive the growth of the global pharmaceutical industry in the next five year period. Within ‘Pharmerging’ markets, China is expected to record highest CAGR growth of over 25%, followed by India and Turkey around 12-14% each. With such a scorching pace of growth China is expected to become third largest pharmaceutical market in the world in 2013 with India holding its 2008 ranking of no. 13. Venezuela is expected to register highest CAGR growth of around 40% during this period placing itself as the eleventh largest pharmaceutical market of the world, comfortably overtaking India.

Emerging markets will drive global growth:

IMS health reported that last year the global pharmaceutical market recorded a turnover of US$712 billion, which is an increase of US$178 billion over last five years. However, the growth rate has come down to 6.4% compared to 11.8% in 2001. Emerging markets like India, China, Russia, Turkey and South Korea have recorded a growth of 13%, 25.7%, 20.2%, 17.2% and 10.7%, respectively against just 3.8% growth of the US market.

Making up sales revenue of world’s top 10 products:

World’s 10 top selling prescription drugs, as reported by IMS, which will be difficult to replace in terms of single-product value turnover after they go off patent, are as follows:

- Lipitor, US$13.5 billion (Pfizer)

- Plavix, US$7.3 billion (Sanofi-Aventis)

- Nexium, US$7.2 billion (AstraZeneca)

- Seretide/Advair, US$7.1 billion (GlaxoSmithKline)

- Enbrel, US$5.3 billion (Amgen and Wyeth)

- Zyprexa, US$5 billion (Eli Lilly)

- Risperdal, US$4.9 billion (Johnson & Johnson)

- Seroquel, US$4.6 billion (AstraZeneca)

- Singulair, US$4.5 billion (Merck)

- Aranesp, US$4.4 billion (Amgen)

Focus on the emerging markets and other measures are expected to more than offset the loss of revenue and profit for these products.

Key business issues in the emerging markets:

Governments of many of these emerging markets expect some local benefits out of the evolving growth opportunities of the global pharmaceutical companies from their respective countries. Various reports indicate that there will be mainly the following two key issues in these markets:

• Local manufacturing of products
• Pricing

Local manufacturing:

Out of these emerging markets, Indonesia has clearly spelt out its intention by specifying that the pharmaceutical companies marketing their products in Indonesia will need to establish local manufacturing facilities. The new rule is directed towards local job creation.

The Health Minister of Indonesia has said, “If they want to get licenses (to sell their products) they have to invest here also, not just take advantage of the Indonesian market.” The Minister further added, “they can’t just operate like a retailer here, with an office that’s three meters by three, and make billions of rupiah. That’s not fair.” It has been reported that India and China may also come out with similar requirements for their respective countries.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce has registered a strong protest in this matter with the President of Indonesia and has urged a reversal of this decision. However, the country appears to have taken a firm stand in this matter. This is evident when in response to the report that some global pharmaceutical companies have threatened withdrawal of their business from Indonesia because of this reason, the Health Minister retorted, “If they want to go away, go ahead.”

Pricing:

Anticipating such moves in the emerging markets, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has already started reducing the prices of its products in the emerging markets.

The visionary CEO of GSK, Andrew witty strongly believes that such price reduction will enable more patients in the emerging markets to afford GSK products. Consequently the increased sales volume will not only be able to offset the price loss but will also create a substantial goodwill for the company in these markets.

Quoting Andrew Witty the ‘Wall Street Journal’ (WSJ) reported that in Philippines, GSK has reduced the price of 28 products by 30% to 50%. In other emerging markets in Asia including India, Malaysia and Thailand the company has reduced the prices of Cervarix, its cervical cancer vaccine, substantially.

Price reductions made by GSK in Philippines in March have started paying rich dividends to the company with 15% to 40% increase in sales revenue.

Conclusion:

To achieve the growth objectives in the emerging markets of the world, global pharmaceutical companies will need to find out a win-win solution. Andrew Witty of GSK has set examples in this area with various path breaking initiatives. Pricing and local manufacturing of products, in that order, are expected to be the key issues in the business model for emerging markets of the global pharmaceutical companies. Witty has responded to such expectations proactively and in an exemplary way. His vision is widely expected to be emulated by many others, as we move on, in the interest of all stakeholders.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Contract Research – a rapidly evolving business opportunity in India: Is the Pharmaceutical Industry making the best use of it?

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A quick perspective of the ‘new-era’ pharmaceutical R&D in India:
Since 1970 up until 2005, Indian pharmaceutical industry used to be considered as the industry of ‘reverse engineering’ and that too with an underlying disparaging tone… and also as the industry of ‘copycat’ medicines’.

However, it will be absolutely unfair on my part to comment that only domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies launched ‘copycat’ versions of patented products in India and no multinational companies (MNCs) resorted to this practice, during this period.

Long before Indian Product Patent regime was put in place, in January 1, 2005, around 1998/99 Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) entered into a bilateral agreement with Novo Nordisk and Ranbaxy with Bayer of Germany to out-license two New Chemical Entities (NCEs) and a New Drug Delivery System (NDDS), respectively for further development.

Opened the new vistas of opportunities:

These research initiatives opened the new vistas of opportunities for the Indian pharmaceutical industry in terms of R&D, in the pharmaceutical science. The above new developments also brought in a sense of determination within the research oriented domestic pharmaceutical players to enter into the big ticket game of the global pharmaceutical industry called ‘product discovery research’.

The jubilation of the industry having demonstrated its initial capability of taking a leap into forthcoming new paradigm of that time, received a set back momentarily when Novo Nordisk terminated the development of both the NCEs of DRL, after a couple of years, because of scientific reasons. However, DRL continued to move on to its chosen path, undeterred by the initial set back.

Need to focus on R&D and create world class ‘Intellectual Properties’:

In a letter addressed to the shareholders of DRL in one of its recent annual reports, the founder and the chairman of the company Dr. Anji Reddy expressed his following vision:

“Excelling in the basic business operations will be necessary, but not sufficient. To maintain a long-term presence in the global pharmaceuticals markets and to grow profitably will require companies to be even more focused on R&D and creation of successful IPR’s [intellectual property rights].”

After India signed the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement, Indian pharmaceutical companies were quick to make out that the ball game of doing pharmaceutical business in the new IPR regime will be quite different. Having pharmaceutical product patents will indeed be important in future, for the domestic R&D based pharmaceutical companies.

The Past versus Present R&D models in India:

Domestic research based pharmaceutical companies did realize in the early days that a radical shift in their focus from ‘process research’ to ‘product discovery research’ may not be prudent or practical either.

Some of these companies initiated step-wise approach from mid 90’s to meet the challenge of change, come year 2005. During the transition period of 10 years as given by the WTO to India from 1995 to 2005, some domestic companies wanted to make full use of their past R&D model.

The past model:

Before the product patent regime, Indian pharmaceutical companies used to manufacture and market generic equivalents of the patented drugs at a fraction of the price of the originators, with non-infringing process technology in the Indian domestic market and also for export to the other non-regulated markets. During the WTO transition period of 10 years, they increased the pace of utilization of this model and launched as many ‘copycat’ versions of the new products as possible to boost up their sales and profit.

The present model for regulated markets:

Following two strategies are followed:

1. Indian companies doing generic business in the regulated markets like the USA submit
“Abbreviated New Drug Application” (ANDA) to the drug regulator for approvals of drugs,
which will go off patent within the next few years, so that the generic products could be launched
immediately after patent expiry.

2. Many other companies follow the second avenue, simultaneously, which is though risky but very
remunerative. In this case, the generic market entry takes place by challenging the patents of the
innovators.

It is believed that this model is being used by the Indian pharmaceutical companies, primarily to raise financial resources to get more engaged in their drug discovery initiatives or to generate wherewithal for collaborative or contract research initiatives.

For short term business growth and to raise fund for discovery research, their non-infringing process research initiatives have been proved to be quite useful. These R&D based Indian pharmaceutical companies; seem to understand very well that discovery of NCEs/NMEs or getting involved in this process will ultimately be ‘the name of the game’ to fuel longer term business growth of their respective organizations.

Contract Research (CR) in India:

Contract research is another business model within the overall R&D space, where a significant part of the investments come from the collaborators. CR business model currently explore the following two key options:

Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) for the discovery will go to the global collabolator and the
Indian CR organization will get an upfront or milestone payments.

 Along with funding support to the CR organization, IPR is shared by both the companies
depending on the terms of agreement.

There could be many other terms/clauses in such CR agreements, which are not within the scope of this discussion.

Types of Contract Research (CR):

Frost & Sullivan in one of their studies on Indian R&D opportunities indicated following three models of contract research:

1. Joint research: Here two or more collaborators will work jointly

2. Collaborative research: In this type of research, scientists of different disciplines work together on a project e.g. Ranbaxy has recently entered into a collaborative research program with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) or collaboration of Ranbaxy to develop an anti-malarial NCE Rbx 11160 with Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), Geneva.

3. Complete outsourcing: When an altogether different research organization is assigned a research project by another organization. Some Indian research based pharmaceutical companies have already got engaged in these types contract research activities. The market of contract research is expected to grow much faster in the near future.

India – an attractive contract research destination:

A global survey done by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) couple of years ago on the preferred centres for overseas contract research, published as follows:

• 39% preference for China

• 28% preference for India

Attractiveness as preferred contract research center was based on the following criteria:

• A place where companies can tap into existing networks of scientific and technical expertise

• Has good links to academic research facilities

• Provides an environment where innovation is supported and easy to commercialize.

Many global pharmaceutical companies believe that China scores over India on the third point, as mentioned above.

Indian pharmaceutical companies have commenced targeting contract research opportunities:

Research based Indian pharmaceutical companies companies like, Piramal Healthcare, Ranbaxy, DRL, Zydus Cadilla, Glenmark etc are now actively targeting international companies for contract research in custom synthesis, medicinal chemistry and clinical studies.

A medium-sized pharma company Shasun Chemicals and Drugs has been reported to have defined its business as an “integrated research and manufacturing solutions provider”. Similarly Divi’s Laboratories, a pharmaceutical company of similar size has collaborated with global multinational companies for both custom synthesis and contract research projects.

Some international CROs, like Quintiles have its establishments in Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Mumbai with great expectations and a robust business model.

New contract research opportunities in Biopharmaceuticals:

Besides pure pharmaceutical companies, an emerging opportunity is seen within the biotech companies in India, which are mostly engaged in a contract model. Novartis has inked a three year deal with Synergene (Biocon) for various research projects primarily in the early stages of development in cardiovascular and oncology therapy areas.

Likewise, Reliance Life Sciences are involved in chemistry, biology and contract clinical research activities.

Another research process outsourcing company, Avesthagen is engaged in collaborative research in metabolics, proteomics, genomics and sequencing. The company shares the IPR with the collaborators.

Jubilant Biosys of India, which has already partnered in a drug development deal with Eli Lilly has recently entered into another research and development deal with AstraZeneca, estimated to be worth up to US$220 million. This research collaboration will be funded by AstraZeneca for five years and they will own the patent of any neuroscience molecule that will come out of this collaborative agreement.

Contract research – a lucrative business model:

A UBS Warburg study indicated that around 20% to 25% of R&D investments in the US go towards contract research. This percentage is expected to increase as the pressure to contain R&D expenses keeps mounting, especially in the US and EU.

Currently the cost of bringing an NCE/NME to market from its R&D stage is estimated to be around US$ 1.7 billion. Across the world efforts are being generated to bring down these mounting expenses towards R&D.

Many experts believe that cost of innovation in India will be almost half of what it will be in the US and EU. A report from Zinnov Management Consulting forecasts that towards outsourcing by the global pharmaceutical companies, India has the potential to earn about US$2.5 billion by 2012.

Conclusion:

Currently, within CR space India is globally considered as a more mature venue for chemistry related drug-discovery activities than China. However, in biotech space China is ahead of India. Probably, because of this reason, companies like, Divi’s Laboratories, Avesthagen, Ranbaxy, Synergene, Jubilant Biosys, Reliance Life Science, DRL, Zydus Cadilla, Glenmark and Piramal Healthcare could enter into long-term collaborative arrangements with Multinational Companies (MNC)to discover and develop New Chemical Entities (NCEs).

As I said earlier quoting Korn/Ferry that in the CR space China’s infrastructure is better than India, primarily due to firm commitment of the Chinese government to derive maximum benefits of the globalization process in the country.

Prudent policy reforms and other measures as expected from the new UPA Government will hopefully help bridging the gap between the Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical industry in the space of overall CR business including biotechnology, as Indian R&D based pharmaceutical companies will start realizing and encashing the potential of this important business model.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Ensuring ‘health outcomes’ based drugs prescriptions will be more beneficial for the patients in India than just ‘price control’ of drugs

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Currently the global pharmaceutical market is undergoing a metamorphosis. The concept of ‘evidence-based medicine’ is gaining ground in the developed markets of the world, making the pharmaceutical companies generate requisite ‘health outcomes’ data using similar or equivalent products. Cost of incremental value that a product will deliver is of key significance. Some independent organizations like, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)in the UK have taken a leading role in this matter.Global pharmaceutical companies using more ‘health outcomes’ data to set pricing strategies:In early 2009, reported agreements between Sanofi-Aventis, Procter & Gamble and Health Alliance as well as Merck and Cigna vindicate this point. These agreements signify a major shift in the global pharmaceutical industry’s approach to gathering and using ‘health outcomes’ data

In the Sanofi-Aventis/Procter & Gamble-Health Alliance agreement, the concerned companies agreed to reimburse health insurance companies expenses incurred for patients suffering from non-spinal bone fracture while undergoing treatment with their drug Actonel.

In the Merck/Cigna agreement, Cigna will have the flexibility to price two diabetes drugs based on ‘health outcomes’ data.

‘Outcomes-based’ pricing strategies are expected to become the order of the day, in not too distant future, all over the world.

The ground realities in India:

Medicines constitute a significant cost component of modern healthcare systems, across the world. In India, overall healthcare system is fundamentally different from many other countries, even China. In most of those countries around 80% of expenses towards healthcare including medicines are reimbursed either by the Governments or through health insurance or similar mechanisms. However, in India situation is just the reverse, about 80% of overall healthcare costs including medicines are private or out of pocket expenses incurred by the individuals/families.

Since 1970, the Government of India (GoI) has been adopting various regulatory measures like cost based price control and price monitoring to make medicines affordable to the common man. For those products, which are patented in India, it has now been reported that GoI is mulling the approach of price negotiation with the respective companies.

However, we should keep in mind that making drugs just affordable in India, where about 65% of population does not have access to modern medicines, is indeed not a core determinant of either healthcare value or proven health outcomes or both.

Cost-effective ‘health outcomes’ based doctors’ prescriptions are more important:

Spending on medicines can be considered as an investment made by the patients to improve their health. To maximize benefits from such spending will require avoidance of products, which will not be effective and the use of lowest cost option with comparable ‘health outcomes’.

For this reason many countries have started engaging the regulatory authorities to come out with head to head clinical comparison of similar or equivalent drugs keeping ultimate ‘health outcomes’ of patients in mind. A day may come in India when the regulatory authorities will also concentrate on ‘outcomes-based’ pricing. However, in Indian context these appear to be very early days.

Till then…

1. Get Standard Treatment Guidelines (STG) prepared for the diseases more prevalent in India, based on, among other data, ‘health outcomes’ studies.

2. Put the STG in place for all government establishments and private hospitals to start with.

3. Gradually extend STG in private medical practices.

4. Make implementation of STG a regulatory requirement.

Thus we need to discuss first what these STGs are.

Standard Treatment Guidelines (STG):

STG is usually defined as a systematically developed statement designed to assist practitioners and patients in making decisions about appropriate cost-effective treatment for specific disease areas.

For each disease area, the treatment should include “the name, dosage form, strength, average dose (paediatric and adult), number of doses per day, and number of days of treatment.” STG also includes specific referral criteria from a lower to a higher level of the diagnostic and treatment requirements.

For a developing country like India formulation of STGs will ensure cost-effective healthcare benefits to a vast majority of population.

In India STGs have already been developed for some diseases by the experts in those areas. These are based on review of current published scientific evidence towards acceptable way forward in diagnosis, management and prevention of various disease conditions

STGs, therefore will provide:

- Standardized guidance to practitioners.
- Cost-effective ‘health outcomes’ based services.

GoI should encourage the medical professionals/institutions to lay more emphasis and refer to such ‘heath-outcomes’ based evidences while prescribing medicines. This will ensure more cost effective ‘health outcomes’ for their patients.

Conclusions:

Such an approach for drug usage will help both the doctors and the patients, significantly, to contain the cost of treatment in general and the cost of medicines in particular. Encouraging and implementing ‘health outcomes’ based medicines prescription in India will require, above all, a change in the mindset of all concerned. The use of an expensive drug with no significant improvement in ‘health outcomes’ should be avoided by the prescribers, initially through self regulation and if required through an appropriate regulation.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

New Drug Policy 2009 – suggesting key elements for a strategic shift in the policy framework

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The new drug policy of the Government of India (GoI) is long overdue. Despite so many reform measures taken by various Governments over last two decades, Indian Pharmaceutical Industry has not seen a new ‘drug policy’since 1995.As an individual who has been closely observing the pharmaceutical industry during this period, I would expect the new UPA Government to work out a new ‘drug policy’, without further delay, after having a fresh look at the current policy, which has outlived its time. The new ‘drug policy’should be aimed at achieving inclusive growth, keeping pace with the progressive outlook and aspirations of young India.Broad policy objectives:

The broad objective of the new ‘Drug Policy’ should undoubtedly be ‘ensuring access to affordable modern medicines to all’, clearly addressing the following key elements, in detail:

1. Affordability:

• The new policy should ensure adequate availability of all ‘National List of Essential Medicines’ (NLEM) at affordable prices.

• ‘Jan Aushadhi’ initiative of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) should be strengthened further through public-private-partnership (PPP) initiatives, using strong public distribution outlets like ration shops and post offices for effective rural penetration of the scheme.

2. Access:

• Around 65% of the Indian population does not have access to affordable modern medicines even today, against 47% in Africa and 15% in China.

• GoI should make effective use of its existing initiatives, take some new initiatives and dovetail them as follows:

- ‘National Rural Health Mission’ (NRHM): to create rural healthcare infrastructure.

- ‘Jan Ausadhi’ scheme: to extend the reach of affordable medicines to a vast majority of
rural population.

- Innovative ‘Health Insurance Schemes’ to be worked out for all sections of the society through PPP, like for example, ‘Yashasvini’, pioneered by Dr. Devi Shetty of Bangalore and the Government of Karnataka, which is possibly the world’s cheapest comprehensive Health Insurance scheme, at Rs.5 (11 cents) per month, for the poor farmers of the state.

3. Research & Development:

• Patents (Amendment) Act, 2005 ushered in a new paradigm for the pharmaceutical industry of India. There is a great opportunity for the domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies to discover, develop and market their own New Molecular Entities (NMEs) throughout the world. The new policy should plan to provide adequate fiscal incentives for R&D initiatives taken by the pharmaceutical industry of India.

• R&D in India costs almost a fraction of equivalent expenditure incurred in the west. Because of availability of highly skilled manpower with proficiency in English together with cost advantages, the country has the potential to become the largest global hub for ‘Contract Research’ and other R&D related work being outsourced by the global Pharmaceutical Companies.

• As India is poised to be a global hub for Clinical Trials, the new policy should extend adequate support to companies carrying out clinical studies in India not only to help them record a healthy growth, but also to attract more ‘foreign direct investments’ (FDI) for the country.

4. Exports:

• The Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers reported in its ‘Annual Report of 2006-07′ that exports of Drugs & Pharmaceuticals have doubled during the last four years. To give greater boosts to exports PHARMEXIL should be further strengthened to act as an effective nodal centre for all pharmaceutical exports, together with the responsibilities for conducting extensive promotional activities to accelerate growth for this sector.

• It is estimated that in the next three years sales of over U.S.$ 60 billion being generated by some blockbuster pharmaceutical products patented in the western countries and not in India, will go off patent. This will open the door of significant opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical exports. GoI should help the domestic pharmaceutical companies to encash this opportunity through adequate financial measures and other support, wherever required.

5. Employment generation:

• Indian pharmaceutical industry with its encouraging pace of growth is making good contribution towards employment generation initiatives of the country, both within skilled and unskilled sectors of the population.

• With projected CAGR of around 14%, the employment opportunity, especially for the qualified professionals is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, across the industry, from core pharmaceutical sectors, right through to contract research, manufacturing services (CRAMS) and clinical trials space.

• Recommendations to be provided in the new drug policy should further accelerate such employment generation opportunity by the industry.

6. Contribution to Economic Growth of the Country:

• The new ‘drug policy’ should also address how will the pharmaceutical industry in India contribute more to the economic development of the country through various reform measures, in areas like, R&D, CRAMS, Clinical Trial (CT) and also towards health insurance, for all strata of society.

Innovative new ‘drug policy’ initiative of the new government will not only ensure a stimulating inclusive growth for the industry, but also will help attract adequate FDI for the country.

Broad Strategic shift towards ‘Access to affordable modern medicines for all’:

Ensuring ‘access to affordable modern medicines for all’ should be made one of the key objectives of the DoP. Resorting to populist measures like ‘drugs price control’ may sound good. Unfortunately at the ground level, it has not helped a vast majority of 650 million population of India, thus far.

Therefore, ‘Drugs Price Control’ since 1970 has not been able to ensure ‘access to affordable modern medicines’ to more than just 35% of Indian population. The new ‘drug policy’ should, therefore, shift its focus from ‘Price Control’ to ‘Price Monitoring’, which has been proved to be of great success to keep medicines affordable to the common man, as indicated by the ‘National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority’ (NPPA). However, for government purchases, made to address the healthcare needs of the ‘common man’ there should always be room for price negotiation with the concerned companies, as is being practiced in many countries of the world.

Conclusion:

To achieve the proposed ‘new drug policy objective’ of ‘ensuring access to affordable modern medicines for all’, the policy makers should try to think ‘outside the box’. ‘The old wine in a new bottle’ policy will just not be enough.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Leverage Information Technology (IT), Health Insurance and ‘Jan Aushadhi’ initiatives to address the burning issue of ‘Access to Affordable Integrated Healthcare to all’ in India.

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Despite so much of general focus, stringent Government control, debate and activism on the affordability of modern medicines in India, a vast majority of Indian population still do not have access to basic healthcare facilities.The degree of poor access to healthcare in general may vary from state to state depending on economic resources and the quality of governance. However, despite the success of the Government to make medicines available in India cheaper than even Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, it has been reported that about 65% of Indian population still do not have access to affordable modern medicines compared to 15% in China and 22% in Africa.Lack of adequate healthcare infrastructure:

One of the key reasons of such poor access is lack of adequate healthcare infrastructure. As per the Government’s own estimate of 2006, India records a shortage of:

1. 4803 Primary Health Centres (PHC)
2. 2653 Community Health Centres (CHS)
3. Almost no large Public Hospitals in rural areas where over 70% of the populations live
4. Density of doctors in India is just 0.6 per 1000 population against 1.4 and 0.8 per 1000 population in China and Pakistan respectively , as reported by WHO.

Moreover, doctors themselves do not want work in rural areas, probably because of lack of basic infrastructural facilities. We have witnessed public agitation of the doctors on this issue, in not so distant past.

National Health Policy and Healthcare Expenditure:

Two key primary focus areas of the Government, everybody agrees, should be education and health of its citizens. Current National Health Policy also planned an overall increase in health spending as 6% of GDP by 2010. However India spent, both public and private sectors put together, an estimated 5% of GDP on healthcare, in 2008.

If we look at only the spending by the Government of India towards healthcare, it is just 1.2% of GDP, against 2% of GDP by China and 1.6% of GDP by Sri Lanka, as reported in the World Health Report 2006 by WHO.

During the current phase of global and local financial meltdown, as the government will require to allocate additional resources towards various economic stimulus measures for the industrial and banking sectors, public healthcare expenditure is destined to decline even further.

The silver lining:

However we have seen the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government allocating around US$2.3 billion for the National Rural Health Mission (NRHS). The Government announced that NRHS aims to bring about uniformity in quality of preventive and curative healthcare in rural areas across the country.

Inefficient healthcare delivery system:

Despite above silver lining of additional resource allocation, the net outcome does not appear to be so encouraging even to an eternal optimist, because of prevailing inadequacy within the system.

The reasons for such inadequacies do not get restricted to just rampant corruption, bureaucratic delay and sheer inefficiency. The way Government statistics mask inadequate infrastructural facilities is indeed equally difficult to apprehend. A recent report from ‘The Economist’, which reads as follows, will vindicate this point:

‘…around 20% of the 600,000 inhabited villages in India still have no electricity at all. This official estimate understates the extent of the problem, as it defines an electrified village—very generously—as one in which at least 10% of households have electricity’.

Leveraging the strength of Information Technology (IT) to considerably neutralize the system weaknesses:

One of the ways to address this problem is to utilize the acquired strengths of India wherever we have, to neutralize these weaknesses. Proficiency in ‘Information Technology’ (IT) is one of the well recognized key acquired strengths that India currently possesses. If we can optimally harness the IT strengths of India, this pressing healthcare issue could possibly be addressed to a significant extent.

One such IT enabled technology that we can use to address rural healthcare issues is ‘cyber healthcare delivery’ for distant diagnosis and treatment of ailments. Required medicines for treatment could be made available to the patients through ‘Jan Aushadhi’ initiative of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP), by utilising the Government controlled distribution outlets like, public distribution system (ration shops) and post offices, which are located even in far flung and remote villages of India.

Please use the following links to read more about these subjects:

http://www.tapanray.in/profiles/blogs/healthcare-services-in-india

http://www.tapanray.in/profiles/blogs/jan-aushadhi-medicines-for

Sources of Healthcare financing in India:

Currently the sources of healthcare financing are patchy and sporadic as follows, with over 70% of the population remaining uncovered:

1. Public sector: comprising local, State and Central Governments autonomous public sector bodies for their employees

2. Government health scheme like:

• ‘Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana’: for BPL families to avail free treatment in more than 80 private hospitals and private nursing homes.
• ‘Rajiv Gandhi Shilpi Swasthya Bima Yojana’ by Textile Ministry: for weavers.
• ‘Niramaya’ by Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment: for BPL families.

3. Private sector: directly or through group health insurance for their employees.

4. ‘Karnataka Yeshavini co-operative farmers’ health insurance scheme: championed by Dr. Devi Shetty without any insurance tie-up.

5. ‘Rajiv Aarogyasri’ by the Government of Andhra Pradesh for BPL families: a Public Private Partnership initiative between Government, Private insurance and Medical community.

6. Individual health insurance policies.

7. External Aid like, Bill & Melinda Gate Foundation, Clinton Foundation etc.

Grossly inadequate health care financing in India, out of pocket expenses being over 70%:

Proportion of healthcare expenditure from financing source in India has been reported as follows:

• Central Government: 6%
• State Government: 13%
• Firms: 5%
• Individual Health Insurance: 3.5%
• Out of pocket by individual household: 72.5%

Need for Health Insurance for all strata of society to address the issue of affordability:

Even after leveraging IT for ‘cyber healthcare diagnosis’ and having low priced quality medicines made available from ‘Jan Aushadhi’ outlets of DoP, healthcare financing to make healthcare delivery affordable to a vast majority of the population will be an essential requirement.

According to a survey done by National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), 40% of the people hospitalised in India borrow money or sell assets to cover their medical expenses. A large number of populations cannot afford to required treatment at all.

Hence it is imperative that the health insurance coverage is encouraged in our country by the government through appropriate incentives. Increasing incidence of lifestyle diseases and rising medical costs further emphasise the need for health insurance. Health insurance coverage in India is currently estimated at just around 3.5% of the population with over 70% of the Indian population living without any form of health coverage.

Conclusion:

Therefore, in my view an integrated approach by leveraging IT, appropriately structured Health Insurance schemes for all strata of society, supported by well and evenly distributed ‘Jan Aushadhi’ outlets, deserves consideration by the Government. A detail and comprehensive implementable plan is to be prepared towards this direction to address the pressing issue of improving ‘Access to Affordable Integrated Healthcare’ to a vast majority of population in India, if not to ALL.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Global API manufacturers are poised to penetrate the Indian market in a bigger way – will the API ‘marketing warfare’ be even more intense, in future?

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India currently plays a relatively dominant role in the Global Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) Market with China being ahead of India. While this is the current scenario, many experts in this field contemplates that important players from the regulated markets will soon start making significant inroads in India.Current API Market situation in India:In 2007 the API output value in India was around US $4.1 billion registering a 5 year CAGR of around 19% and ranking fourth in the world API output. According to the Tata Strategic Management Group, Indian API export value is expected to increase to US $12.75 billion in 2012.

Currently in India about 400 different types of APIs are manufactured in around 3000 plants, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Lupin, Shasun Chemicals, Orchid Chemicals, Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharmaceuticals Ipca Laboratories and USV being the top API manufacturers of the country. Indian domestic companies source almost 50 percent of their API requirements from China, because of lower cost in that country.

In terms of global ranking, India is now the third largest API producers of the world just after China and Italy and by 2011 is expected to be the second largest producer after China. However, in Drug Master File (DMF) filings India is currently ahead of China.

In addition, India scores over China in ‘documentation’ and ‘Environment, Health and Safety (EHS)’ compliance. All these have contributed to India having around 100 US FDA approved world class manufacturing facilities, which is considered the largest outside the USA.

Indian API manufacturers are facing a cut throat competition from their Chinese counterparts mainly because of lower costs in China. Considerably higher economies of scale and various types of support that the Chinese API manufacturers receive from their Government are the main reasons for such cost differential.

Growing competiton from the regulated markets:

We now observe a new trend within the API space in India. Many of the global innovators and generic companies are keen to enter into the API space of India.

It is known that API manufacturers from the regulated markets are already selling their products in India. However, at present, the numbers of Indian registrations for API applied by some of the large global companies, as reported by ‘Thomson Reuters Newport Horizon Premium’, are quite significant, which are as follows:

1. Novartis, Switzerland:20
2. Pfizer, USA:16
3. Sanofi-Aventis, France: 26
4. Teva, Israel: 45
5. Schering-Plough, USA:39
6. BASF: 37
7. DSM: 26
8. E.ON AG: 16
9. Kyowa Hakko: 23

All these companies who are entering into the API business space in India, I am sure, have worked out a grand design to compete not only with the the low cost domestic API manufacturers, but also with the cheaper imports, particularly from China.

What will then be the competitive edge of these companies in India?

It appears that each of these companies has weighed very carefully the existing strategic opportunities in the API sectors of India, both in terms up technology and also in terms of domestic demand.

Strategic gap in API manufacturing technology:

India, undeniably, is one of the key global hubs in the API space, with competitive edge mainly in ‘non-fermentation technology’ product areas. This leaves a wide and perceptible technological gap in the areas of products requiring ‘fermentation technology‘.

Significant demand from domestic formulations manufacturing :

India is much ahead of China in pharmaceutical formulations manufacturing, especially in the area of exports to the regulated markets like, the USA and EU. Over 25 domestic Indian companies are currently catering to exports demand of the U.S market. However, it is interesting to note that the global manufacturers like Sandoz, Eisai, Watson, Mylan have already set up their formulations manufacturing facilities in India and some more are expected to follow suit over a period of time. Hence, fast growing domestic demand for APIs, especially for exports, will drive the business plan of the global API players for India.

Is the cost advantage in India sustainable?

Indian API manufacturers although currently have a cost advantage compared to their counterparts in the regulated market, this advantage is not sustainable over a period of time because of various reasons. The key reason being sharp increase in cost related to more stringent environmental and regulatory compliance, besides spiralling manpower and other overhead costs.

Indian regulatory requirements for the global API players:

To sell their APIs into India, global companies are now required to obtain the following regulatory approvals from the Indian authorities:

1. Foreign manufacturing sites for the concerned products
2. APIs which will be imported in the country

The Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has stipulated a fee of U.S$1,500 to register the manufacturing premises and U.S$1,000 to register each individual API. Since January 2003, around 1,200 registration certificates have been issued in India. Large number of Indian registrations is attributed by many to the strategic technology gap in India, as stated above, demand of high-quality API for finished formulations required by the regulated markets like the U.S and EU, and relatively cheaper product registration process.

As we see above Teva has gone for maximum number of Indian registrations, so far and most probably selling the APIs to their contract formulations manufacturers in India. Similarly, Schering-Plough and Sanofi-Aventis, if not Pfizer are perhaps catering to the API demand of their respective formulations manufacturing plants in the country.

Whatever may be the reasons, these global players are now exporting APIs at a much larger scale to India and in that process have started curving out a niche for themselves in the Indian API market. Impressive growth of the domestic pharmaceutical formulations manufacturing market fueled by increasing domestic consumption and exports to the regulated markets, coupled with gradual improvement in the regulatory environment of the country, is expected to drive the growth of API business of the global players.

However, the moot question is how significant will this competition be?

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Key business strategies of global pharmaceutical industry are undergoing a radical change, while in India we are still thinking within the box. Who cares about the global clue?

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One of the leading consulting companies, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in its report of June 2007 titled “Pharma 2020: The vision –Which path will you take?” postulated that the business model followed by the global pharmaceutical companies is, “economically unsustainable and operationally incapable of acting quickly enough to produce the types of innovative treatments demanded by global markets”.
R&D is failing to deliver:Datamonitor highlighted that drugs worth U.S$ 140 billion will go off patent by 2016. Thus the value turnover that will be lost because of number of drugs going off-patent will be almost impossible to replace by this time. Many analysts have been expressing concerns about gradual but steady decline in pharmaceutical R&D productivity since quite some time. During this period, most of the research based companies could afford only a small increase in their R&D budget, while marketing and other overhead expenditures registered a significant increase.

Single global process of Drug Regulatory approval…is possible…but is it probable?

PwC in the same report touched upon another interesting possibility within the R&D space of the global pharmaceutical industry. It indicated that the research based pharmaceutical companies will gradually switch over from, “Classic model of drug development that ends in regulatory approval to ‘live licenses’ that allow for narrow product launches followed by gradually expanding approvals as drugs are continuously tested.”

Most interestingly, the report also forecasted that by 2020, the drug regulators across the world will work together under a collaborative framework to arrive at uniform and single global process of drug regulatory approval. If it materializes, the process will indeed be path breaking in every sense.

Global pharmaceutical market will register significant growth:

Following this trend, the report highlighted, that the global pharmaceutical sales will touch U.S$ 1.3 trillion by 2020, almost double of what it is today. High growth of emerging markets and the aging global population are expected to be the key growth drivers.

During this period E7 countries like, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia are expected to contribute around 20% of Global Pharmaceutical turnover. Keeping pace with the economic progress, the disease pattern of these countries are also changing, from infectious diseases to non-infectious chronic illnesses, like diabetes, hypertension, just as we now observe in the developed world.

Together with this change, many predict that ‘greenhouse effect’ arising out of global warming process will have significant impact on health of the global population, resulting in large scale re-emergence of diseases like malaria and cholera together with various types of respiratory disorders.

Radical change is envisaged in pharmaceuticals marketing:

In April 2009, PwC came out with another interesting report titled, “Pharma 2020: Challenging business models, which path will you take?” on the future of the global pharmaceutical industry.

As the time progresses global pharmaceutical companies will need to understand the shift in ‘perceived value’ that is taking place within patients, medical profession and the community as a whole towards healthcare delivery. Just an innovative medicine will no longer be able to satisfy their ‘value expectations’. Pharmaceutical companies will have to offer a ‘bundle of benefits’, combining the innovative products with related health services, for which the market will not hesitate to pay a reasonable premium.

Thus in future, global pharmaceutical companies will need to collaborate with disease management specialists for a “holistic offering” to address an ailment rather than just treatment of the disease with medicines. Such “value added and innovative” marketing strategies will differentiate business success from failure, in 2020.

In the recent report PwC advocates that to be successful, in future, global pharmaceutical companies will need to change their ball game almost radically. The future strategy will focus on collaborative arrangements between various allied healthcare establishments and the pharmaceutical companies to offer a “holistic solution” to the patients in all disease areas.

That means, global manufacturer of an anti-diabetic drug will need to offer along with the innovative drug, counseling on diet regimen, suggesting exercise programs and their follow-up, reminders for regular and timely intake of medicines and many more. Who knows?

“Better late than never”:

In any case, to excel in business at a time when the global pharmaceutical business model is undergoing a fundamental shift; there is a need to keep on investing more towards R&D, which will continue to remain the ultimate growth engine of pharmaceutical business, the world over. At the same time, there will be a dire need to prune expenditure in innovative ways and that opens the door for global outsourcing of various business processes from most cost efficient countries having world class facilities.

Domestic pharmaceutical players, if start mustering all resources to avail these global opportunities, India can soon become a global hub for pharmaceuticals outsourcing, outracing China which is currently placed ahead of India, in this field. As the good old saying goes, I shall always wish, “better late than never”.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Why is China surpassing India almost in all the verticals of Pharmaceutical industry?

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To make India a major hub for Pharmaceutical outsourcing of all types, the country has all the required ingredients. India has indeed the potential to be a contender for global supremacy, in these fast growing sectors. However, despite all these, China is racing ahead to effectively avail these global opportunities and in that process fast distancing itself from India, widening the competitive performance gap between the two countries.Why is it happening? In this article, I would like to focus on some of these areas to assess the progress made so far, in a comparative yardstick, by these two countries and the key factors responsible for such growing disparity.China is ahead of India in country ranking both in value and growth terms:

In global ranking, China is currently the seventh largest pharmaceutical market and is expected to be the fifth largest market by 2010 and the third largest by 2020. The Chinese pharmaceuticals market is expected to grow by around 15% per annum at least in the next five years.

China is also ahead of India in healthcare coverage of its population:

In China, out of a population of 1.3 billion, 250 million are covered by insurance, another 250 million are partially covered by insurance and balance 800 million are not covered by any insurance. Against these statistics of China, in India total number of population who have some sort of healthcare financing coverage will be around 200 million and penetration of health insurance will be just around 3.5% of the population. India is fast losing grounds to China mainly due to better response to healthcare infrastructure and regulatory challenges by China.

Strong commitment of the Chinese Government in globalization process:

A very high level of commitment of the Chinese Government to make China a regional hub of pharmaceutical R&D and contract research and manufacturing (CRAM) activities within next seven to ten years is paying rich dividends.

Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) of the Government of India (GoI)recently expressed its intention to make India a R&D hub in not too distant future. This cannot be achieved just by good intent of investments of couple of million U.S$ through public Private Partnership (PPP), as announced by the DoP recently through the media . A strong commitment of the GoI to hasten regulatory reform processes with visble action, will be the deciding success factor. IPR regime in the pharmaceutical industry has been put in place, but in half measure. While product patent is in place, regulatory data protection (RDP) both against disclosure and unfair commercial use is yet to see the light of the day.

Regulatory data protection and better infrastructural facilities make China a better destination for Clinical Trials:

In China, the local law provides for 6 years regulatory data protection (RDP). Drug Registration Regulation (DRR) September 2007 of China is based on common technical data standards and allows only use of published data during protection period. In preclinical testing and animal experimentation, China is far ahead of India, because of regulatory constraints in our country. The report from ‘Biospectrum, Asia edition, Resource Guide 2009’, the number of Clinical trials being conducted in China was 961 against 834 in India. As a result, towards clinical trials China is attracting more foreign direct investments (FDI) than India.

‘Country Attractiveness Index’ for clinical trials:

‘A.T. Kearney’ developed a ‘Country Attractiveness Index’ (CAI) for clinical trials for pharmaceutical industry executives to make more informed decision regarding offshore clinical trials. As per this study, the CAI of China is 6.10 against 5.58 of India.

China is ahead of India in pharmaceutical patent filing:

In patent filing also China seems to ahead of India. Based on WIPO PCT applications, it has been reported that 5.5% of all global pharmaceutical patent applications named one inventor or more located in India as against 8.4% located in China. This will give an Indication how China is making rapid strides in R&D areas.

China will replace India as country with largest pharmaceutical exports, by 2010:

Both India and China used to be the preferred pharmaceutical outsourcing destinations across the globe. Though pharmaceuticals exports of India are currently ahead of China, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) reports that China may reverse this trend by 2010, establishing itself as the largest country in the world for Pharmaceutical exports. In API exports, China already overtook India in 2007. The report titled, “The Changing dynamics of pharmaceutical outsourcing in Asia” indicates that in 2007 against API exports of U.S$ 1.7 billion of India, China clocked a figure of US$ 5.6 billion. In 2010, China is expected to widen this gap further with API exports of U.S$ 9.9 billion against India’s U.S$ 2.8 billion.

Brain drain from India to China:

Korn/Ferry International has reported recently that more and more Indian talent is being pulled to China to fill key roles, especially in the API sector, signalling ‘brain drain’ from India to China.

Where India is regarded as a preferred destination:

However, India is globally considered as a more mature venue for chemistry related drug-discovery activities than China. Probably, because of this reason companies like, Ranbaxy, Aurigene, Advinus, Piramals and Jubilant Organosys could enter into long-term collaborative arrangements with Multinational Companies (MNC) to discover and develop New Chemical Entities (NCEs).

As I said earlier and as reported by Korn/Ferry that China’s infrastructure in the pharmaceutical space is better than India, primarily due to firm commitment of the Chinese government to accelerate reform measures to fetch maximum benefits of globalization process in the country.

Government of India seems to have fallen short of this commitment and is embracing more protectionists policies, which have been proved counterproductive almost all over the world to bring forth rapid progress to the nation and make the industries globally competitive.

Just a wishful thinking sans prudent regulatory policy reforms processes will helplessly make us see the gap between the Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical industry, fast widening.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.