Quantum Growth Envisaged in Government Procurement for Pharmaceuticals: A Challenging Ball Game for Pharma Players

Posted on February 27, 2012 by Tapan Ray

Direct procurement by the Governments of various countries is attracting increasing importance not just at the domestic level, but internationally, as well. The systems adopted for Government Procurement (GP) globally are aimed at making a significant difference in the effectiveness of utilization of the exchequers’ fund and the quality of governance in the respective countries. Absolute transparency in the entire process of GP, extending fair and equal opportunities to all suppliers, is of utmost importance.

According to ‘The Center of International Development at the Harvard University, USA’, Government Procurement of goods and services typically accounts for 10-15% of GDP for the developed countries, and up to 20% of GDP for the developing nations. As a result, the local GP markets have started attracting attention of even the overseas suppliers to make this process an integral part of Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs) between countries.

GP was excluded in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiated in 1947. However, as the years progressed the members of WTO started exploring various ways to include GP in the multilateral trading system.

The proponents of WTO agreements on GP argue that the purchase decision of the governments on GP of goods and services should be non-discriminatory, irrespective of who produces the goods or renders required services, including foreign suppliers, if any.

GPA- The plurilateral Agreement:

In January 1, 1994 along with ‘Uruguay Round’ a landmark agreement was reached on GP, which is known as “The plurilateral Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA)”. This agreement was administered by a Committee of WTO members, who are Parties to the GPA and was signed by 41 of the 153 members of the WTO.

India joins as an observer in GPA – the first step for membership:

On Feb 11, 2010 ‘Reuters’ reported that “India has joined the World Trade Organization’s government procurement agreement as an observer, a first step to membership in the scheme regulating trade in goods bought by governments”. With this India joined other 22 WTO members with the same observer status, when 9 members including China are in the process of negotiation for full membership of the GPA.

On December 15, 2011, WTO reported a historic agreement by the members of GPA to ‘improve the disciplines for GP and expand the market access coverage valued at between 80 to 100 billion dollars a year’.

The opposition to GPA:

That said, those who oppose GPA also put forth strong arguments. They believe that such agreements instead of creating so called a ‘level playing field’ for all, would further complicate the situation where the developing countries, leave aside the least developed ones, would continue to remain at a disadvantage as compared to the developed industrial nations.

The developing countries and the relief organizations argue that the growing industries of the developing nations will suffer most, if matured global companies are allowed to compete for GP together with the domestic players. Such a situation, they apprehend, could snow ball into huge balance of payment issues for the developing and the least developed nations.

Pharmaceuticals: Second largest item in public healthcare budget:

According to WHO, for the developing countries like India pharmaceuticals are the second largest item of expenditure, after personnel costs, ranging from 8 per cent to 12 per cent of the public health budget. Thus, such fund should be utilized with utmost care within a transparent and highly efficient GP system. It is envisaged, that efficient GP systems will play critical role in improving access to medicines in India.

GP for Pharmaceuticals in India:

The process of procurement of drugs and pharmaceuticals by the Ministry of Health of the Government of India is usually entrusted to an agency known as ‘Hospital Services Consultancy Corporation (HSCC)’. This multidisciplinary consultancy organization was set up to extend quality consultancy services in healthcare and other social sectors of the country. HSCC undertakes the following:

Procurement of drugs and pharmaceuticals
Tendering process
Placement of orders
Follow-up, inspection and dispatch

So far, many World Bank supported programs for procurement of drugs and pharmaceuticals for Malaria, Tuberculosis, and Reproductive Child Health etc. were initiated by the HSCC. The procurement services of HSCC are in line with the procedures adopted by the World Bank.

Health being a State subject in India, pharmaceutical procurement is made by both the Central and State Governments, besides large private health institutions.

Though over 25 per cent of the total public sector drug volume is procured by the Central Government, there is no single Central Government procurement agency. Following are the key agencies currently handling the Central Government procurement for pharmaceuticals through competitive tendering process:

Central Government Health Services (CGHS)
Armed Forces Medical Services (AFMS)
Medical Stores Organization (MSO)

Examples of GP in the states:

Many state Governments have already started putting in place the GP process for pharmaceuticals in their respective states. This process is expected to gain momentum as we move ahead. Examples of GP system of some of the State Governments in India are as follows:

Delhi:

In 1996, to promote rational drug use with high quality of medicines, the ‘Delhi Society for Promotion of Rational Use of Drugs (DSPRUD)’ with the technical assistance from WHO introduced a pooled procurement system for all state-run hospitals and 150 Primary Health Centers (PHCs) in Delhi.

This robust procurement system with a competitive bidding process has reportedly resulted in price reduction of high quality medicines by 30-40 per cent. State-run hospitals and the PHCs now supply these prescriptions medicines to over 80 per cent of patients.

WHO, encouraged by the success of the ‘Delhi Model’, has recommended it to the other States of India. Currently the following State Governments are implementing the program in their respective states:

Maharashtra
Rajasthan
Punjab
Himachal Pradesh

Tamil Nadu:

In January 1995, Tamil Nadu Government had set up a Government-run Company known as, Tamil Nadu Medical Services Corporation (TNMSC). The main purpose of TNMSC was to make all essential drugs available in nearly 2000 government medical institutions throughout the State, with a well-structured, uniform and standardized system for procurement, storage and distribution of medicines.

To ensure efficient procurement of high quality drugs at competitive prices, TNMSC follows an open tendering system for purchases only from reputed manufacturers with a pre-specified minimum overall business turnover, having a market standing of not less than three years. Standby suppliers are also selected at the same time to eliminate any drug shortages for delayed or non-supply by the first supplier.

The competitive procurement bid system has reportedly enabled TNMSC to save on drugs to the tune of 36% of the allocation.

Andhra Pradesh (AP):

In AP public health care system delivers services at all levels of primary, secondary and tertiary care.

In 1998, a centralized pooled drug procurement system was implemented in AP with the establishment of the Drug Procurement Wing (DPW) within the ‘Andhra Pradesh Infrastructure State Development Corporation (APISDC)’.

For high quality GP they introduced a two tier system for bidding and procurement, starting with the technical bid and followed by the actual financial bidding process.

In this system, details of drug requirements are collected from public hospitals within the state, collated by the DPW and thereafter consolidated orders are placed to the competitive bid winners for supplying required essential medicines at the medical stores of each district of the state.

Odisha:

Odisha has a centralized system of procurement of drugs featuring in the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM).

To ensure quality procurement, a pre-qualification stipulation of quality parameters and competitive price quotations are looked at.

Small Scale Industries (SSIs) are entitled to 5 per cent price preference along with other relaxations like, partial exemption from earnest money deposit and concession in sales tax.

A recent evaluation of the Drugs Distribution System in Odisha by WHO has highlighted that the key NLEM drug availability in all the centers except one in the state ranged from 80 to 100%.

UHC – A potential GP growth booster:

The recommendation no. 3.1.10 of the report titled ‘High Level Expert Group Report on Universal Health Coverage (UHC) for India’, instituted by the Planning Commission, clearly indicates that purchases of all health care services under the UHC system should be undertaken either directly by the Central and state governments through their Departments of Health or by quasi-governmental autonomous agencies established for the purpose.

PMO push for free drugs at Government hospitals:

Quoting the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), ‘The Times of India’ on February 13, 2012 reported that availability of free medicines to all patients visiting any government health facility across the country will soon be a reality, as the Ministry of Health (MoH) is planning to spend around Rs 30,000 Crore under ‘free-medicines-for-all’ scheme with the strong support of the PMO.

Quantum growth envisaged in the GP system:

UHC along with the above free medicine initiative by the MoH and expanded coverage of the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM)/ National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) are expected to make GP for pharmaceuticals a critical procurement initiative of the nation.

This appears more realistic when seen together with the increase in public spend allocation on health by the Planning Commission of India from current 0.9 per cent to 2.5 per cent of GDP during the Twelfth Five Year Plan period.

Thus a quantum growth is envisaged in the GP system for pharmaceuticals within the country.

Conclusion:

From all available indicators, it appears that GP for pharmaceuticals in India will assume immense importance to both the global and local pharmaceutical companies.

The Central Government, with ‘The Draft Public Procurement Bill, 2011’, seems to have already started moving in this direction. The enactment of this Bill will facilitate the Government not only to effectively leverage the state bargaining power for the prices of medicines, but also to ensure efficient delivery of high quality products to a very large section of the society.

Quite in tandem various State Governments should also either create afresh or revamp the existing procurement system, as the case may be, to put in place a robust GP mechanism in their respective states.

One clear outcome of the expansion of GP system for sure will be enormous pricing pressure on the pharmaceutical players in India, which will be quite challenging to navigate.

The scenario will get even more complex and heated up, especially for the smaller pharmaceutical players, as and when India becomes a signatory to the GPA of the WTO, opening its door wide ajar for the large global players to participate in the pharmaceutical bidding process of the Government, well facilitated by various FTAs.

In this rapidly evolving environment, are the pharma players, both global and local, ready with appropriate strategies and systems in place to participate in yet another challenging new ball game of low margin and high volume pharmaceutical business in India?

By: Tapan J Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Vaccine Market of India: A rejuvenation is in progress

Posted on February 20, 2012 by Tapan Ray

Even in couple of decades back, ‘Vaccines Market’ in India did not use to be considered as a focus area by many pharmaceutical companies. Commoditization of this market with low profit margin and unpredictable interest of the government/the doctors towards immunization were the main reasons. Large global players like Glaxo exited the vaccine market at that time by withdrawing products like, Tetanus Toxoid, Triple Antigen and other vaccines from the market.

Currently, the above scenario is fast changing. The vaccine market is getting rejuvenated not only with the National Immunization Program (NIP) of the country, but also with the emergence of newer domestic vaccines players and introduction of novel vaccines by the global players, which we shall discuss below.

In addition, the ‘Indian Academy of Pediatrics (IAP) Committee on Immunization’ now recommends the ‘best individual practices schedule’ for the children in consultation with their respective parents. Such schedule may not conform to NIP and include newer vaccines, broadening the scope of use of vaccines in general.

Global Market:

According to GBI Research Report, overall global vaccines market was valued at US$ 28 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach US$ 56.7 billion by 2017 with a CAGR of 11.5%. The key growth driver of this segment will be introduction of newer vaccines, which are currently either in the regulatory filing stage or in the late stages of clinical development.

The important international players in the vaccines market are GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Pfizer, Novartis AG, Merck and SP-MSD, representing around 88% of the total vaccine segment globally.

Indian Market:

Year	Value Rs. Cr.	Growth %
2007	389	-
2008	383	-2
2009	476	24
2010	726	53

Source: IMS – Health MAT June 2010

India is one of largest markets for all types of vaccines in the world. The growth is being driven by the new generation and combination vaccines, like DPT with Hepatitis B, Hepatitis A and Injectable polio vaccine. The demand for veterinary vaccines is also showing ascending trend. Pediatric vaccines contribute to around 60% of the total vaccines market in India.

McKinsey in its report titled, “India Pharma 2020: Propelling access and acceptance, realizing true potential“ stated that at 2% penetration, the vaccines market of India is significantly under-penetrated with an estimated turnover of around US$ 250 million, where the private segment accounts for two-thirds of the total. McKinsey expects the market to grow to US$ 1.7 billion by 2020.

In India companies like, Serum Institute, Shantha Biotecnics, Bharat Biotech and Panacea Biotech are poised to take greater strides in this direction. Bharat Biotech is incidentally the largest Hepatitis B vaccine producer in the world. Likewise, Serum Institute is reportedly one of the largest suppliers of vaccines to over a 130 countries of the world and claim that ’1 out of every 2 children immunized worldwide gets at least one vaccine produced by Serum Institute.’

Indian Vaccine Market: Domestic vs MNCs:

In the domestic vaccine market the market share of the Indian players is gradually improving as compared to their multinational counterparts.

Types	June 2009 MAT	% Value Growth	June 2010 MAT	% Value Growth
Indian Companies	55%	27	59%	64
MNCs	45%	21	41%	38

Source IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top 10 Companies:

Rank	Company	Value (Rs. Cr)	%Market Share	%Value Growth
	Vaccine Market	726	100	53
1	GSK	131	18	23
2	Sanofi Aventis	129	18	>>
3	Pfizer	71	10	75
4	Novartis	68	9	-12
5	Serum Institute	68	9	40
6	Panacea Biotech	59	8	57
7	VHB Lifesciences	33	5	>>
8	Zydus Cadila	32	4	56
9	MSD	31	4	>>
10	Shantha Biotech	24	3	15

Source IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top Therapies:

Therapies	Value (Rs.Cr.)	%Market Share	% Value Growth		Incr. Value (Rs. Cr)
Therapies	Value (Rs.Cr.)	%Market Share	June’09 MAT	June’10 MAT	June’09 MAT	June’10 MAT
Vaccine Market	726.1	100	24	53	93	250
Toddler Vaccine	211	29	55	60	47	79
Adult Vaccine	205	28	-4	22	-7	37
Paediatric Combination Vaccines	146	20	67	>>	28	77
Paediatric Single Vaccines	131	18	25	32	20	32
All Other Vaccines	33	5	—	431	6	27

Source IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top 10 Brands:

Rank	Brands	Company	Value (Rs.Cr.)	Value Growth %		Incr. value (Rs. Cr.)
Rank	Brands	Company	Value (Rs.Cr.)	June’09 Mat	June’10 MAT	June’09 Mat	June’10 MAT
	Vaccine Market		726	24	53	93.1	250
1	Prevenar	Pfizer	71	150	75	24	30
2	Rabipur	Novartis	68	4	-12	3	-9
3	Pentaxim	Sanofi Aventis	46	>>	>>	7	39
4	Havrix	GSK	37	9	47	2	12
5	Varivax	VHB	33	59	>>	5	18
6	Vaxirab	Zydus Cadila	32	-11	56	-3	11
7	Varil Rix	GSK	25	-3	-9	-1	-2
8)	Gardasil	MSD	22	—-	>>	5	16
9	Verorab	Sanofi Aventis	21	—-	—-	0	21
10	Rotarix	GSK	21	—-	>>	10	11

Source: IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top 10 New Introductions:

NIs	Company	Launch Date	Value (Rs. Cr)	Incr. Value (Rs. Cr)
Vaccine Market			104	79
Gardasil	MSD	10/2008	22	16
Rotarix	GSK	07/2008	21	11
Pentavac	Serum Institute	10/2008	16	12
Cervarix	GSK	02/2009	11	10
Polprotec	Panacea Biotech	07/2008	9	6
Xprab	Ranbaxy	10/2009	7	7
Quadrovax	Serum Institute	11/2008	4	3
Comvac- 5	Bharat Biotech	02/2009	3	3
Pentavac – SD	Serum Institute	11/2009	2	2
Shan HIB- DPT	Shantha Biotech	09/2008	2	1

Source:IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Action areas to boost growth:

McKinsey in its above report ‘India Pharma 2020’ indicated that the action in the following 4 areas by the vaccine players will drive the vaccine market growth in India:

Companies need to go for local production of vaccines or leverage supply partnerships. GlaxoSmithKline’s local partnership for the HiB vaccine with Bio-manguinhos in Brazil has been cited as an example.
Companies will need to conduct studies on the economic impact of vaccination and establish vaccine safety and performance standards.
Extension of vaccine coverage beyond pediatricians and inclusion of general practitioners, consulting physicians and gynaecologists will be essential.
Companies will need to enhance supply chain reliability and reduce costs.

Conclusions:

On January 7, 2012, while requesting the ‘Overseas Indian Medical Professionals’ to partner with the institutions in India, the Health Minister, in his address, announced that the Ministry of Health has already introduced the second dose of measles vaccine and Hepatitis-B vaccination across the country. Moreover, from December, 2011 a ‘Pentavalent Vaccine’ has been introduced, initially in 2 States, covering 1.5 million children of India.

All these augur quite well for the country. However, keeping in view of the humongous disease burden of India, immunization program with various types of vaccines should receive active encouragement from the government as disease prevention initiatives, at least, keeping the future generation in mind.

If such policy measures are initiated in the country, without delay, the domestic vaccine market , in turn, will receive further growth momentum, together with newer players and modern vaccines coming in, to help addressing effectively a significant area of the healthcare concerns of the country.

By: Tapan J Ray

Indian Pharmaceutical Landscape: Looking back (2011), Looking Ahead (2012)

Posted on January 2, 2012 by Tapan Ray

2011 witnessed many interesting developments within the pharmaceutical industry of India. All these developments may not be appreciated by all stakeholders alike, nonetheless had an impact on the industry of varying degree both in the qualitative and quantitative terms.

That said, the list of ‘unfinished agenda’ of the government to improve healthcare access and simultaneously to fuel the growth engine of the industry with reform oriented policy initiatives, kept on increasing staggeringly.

The issue of improving access to modern medicines with comprehensive measures continued to remain unaddressed even in the draft National Pharmaceuticals Pricing Policy 2011. Similarly, the Prime Minister’s dedication of the decade of 2010 as the decade of innovation remained a pipe dream for the pharmaceutical industry of the country. Policy paralysis of the decision makers during the year failed to translate even this praiseworthy intent into reality.

Increasing consumption of medicines in India:

Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) continued to grow at a scorching pace of around 15% registering a turnover of Rs 59,621 Crore during the year. (Source: Nov 2011- AIOCD/AWACS).

Fast increasing consumption of medicines in the country continued to position IPM not just as another global success story, but also an emerging pharmaceutical force to reckon with, especially in the development and manufacturing of high quality and low cost generic pharmaceuticals together with its world-class Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS). Indian pharmaceutical players now cater to about 20% of global requirements of high quality and affordable generic medicines of all types.

Consolidation process continues:

At the same time, ongoing consolidation process within the pharmaceutical industry continued in 2011 with Aventis Pharma (Sanofi) acquiring Universal Medicare and Zydus Cadila shopping for Biochem Pharma.

November 30, 2011: Signaled beginning of the end of the blockbuster drug era:

On November 30, 2011, the patent expiry of the world largest ever brand Lipitor (Pfizer), clocking an annual turnover of over US$ 14 billion and accounting for more than 20% of the company’s sales turnover until recently, I reckon, heralds beginning of the end of the blockbuster drug era. To equal the turnover of Lipitor with another brand will be a huge challenge not only for Pfizer, but also for any other company in the near to medium term.

Patent expiry of Lipitor will now help opening up the super size Atorvastatin market of the developed world to the Indian generic players.

Launch of innovative products:

Launch of several innovative and patented products in India by the global players during 2011, reconfirmed the attractiveness of the IPM to the global innovator companies. Some of these innovative products are Revolade (Eltrombopag) , Votrient (Pazopanib Hydrochloride) of GlaxoSmithKline, Flexbumin solution of Baxter and BD Ultra-Fine III Nano of Becton Dickinson.

Looking back (2011):

During 2011, the industry witnessed a number of initiatives from the government as an ongoing process, some of which are as follows:

Establishment of dedicated Pharma Zones in Mumbai, Hyderabad and Delhi airports, including cold rooms to help achieving world-class cold-chain logistics in India in the medium term.
For the first time in 2011, the government initiated steps to put the ‘Biosimilar Guidelines’ in place to ensure high safety standards for follow-on biologics in India. The Department of Biotechnology (DBT) and the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) prepared these guidelines in consultation with the industry, the effective implementation of which is keenly awaited. This important step will also help Indian biosimilar drug manufacturers to prepare themselves well to explore the opportunity of gradually opening-up biosimilar drugs markets in the western world, like the USA and EU.
The Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) came out with a draft Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCPMP) in 2011 to curb alleged unethical practices of ‘bribing doctors’ by pharma companies. The code initially is expected to be of voluntary in nature and its effective implementation will be ensured by the pharmaceutical companies and the industry associations over a period of six months. Thereafter, if the implementation level of UCPMP does not measure up to the expectations of the DoP, it will be made mandatory under strict regulatory control. However, the final UCPMP has not been announced by the government, as yet.
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare constituted a twelve member task force to evolve a long term strategy to address various issues faced by the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry. Unfortunately, tangible outcome from this committee is still awaited.
Following the Supreme Court directive to the government to bring essential drugs under price control, after a very long time, the Government came out hurriedly with a draft National Pharmaceuticals Pricing Policy 2011 (Draft NPPP 2011) by increasing the span of effective price control to over 65% of the IPM. This flawed draft policy, if implemented, could stifle the growth of the industry.
During the year the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare finalized the National Vaccine Policy to strengthen the institutional framework required for the universal immunization program. The policy is also expected to streamline the decision-making process on new and underutilized vaccine introduction, besides addressing issues of vaccine security, management, regulatory guidelines and vaccine research and development.
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare also came out with the National Health Research Policy in 2011 to overcome the weaknesses of the publicly funded health structures, which restrict research in the priority health areas. This policy is expected to help maximizing the returns on investments in health research through creation of a robust health research system.
New National Manufacturing Policy (NMP), which ultimately saw the light of the day during the year, is expected to promote the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector, as well. The policy will help enhancing the share of total manufacturing of all industrial sectors put together from the current level of 15% to 25% of the GDP within a decade and would also help creating 100 million jobs in the country.
100% FDI in the Pharmaceuticals sector of India remained unchanged, which will attract more foreign investments in this sunrise sector of India.
‘Universal Health Converge’, announced during the year by the Planning Commission of India, will help reducing significantly the ‘out of pocket’ expenses incurred towards healthcare, improving its access to all.

Looking Ahead (2012):

The good news for 2012 is that the Planning Commission has decided to increase the national spending on health to 2.5% of the GDP in the 12th Five Year Plan starting from 2012.
In 2012, if the ‘NPPP 2011’ is implemented as in its current draft form, it could seriously impede the court of the vibrant pharmaceutical industry of India.
Introductions of DTC and GST: The ‘Discussion Paper’ on the draft ‘Direct Taxes Code Bill, 2009’ highlighted the possibility that the GST regime could have multiple rates based on classification of goods that are to be listed under the exempted category, like goods which would attract lower rate and another category of goods qualifying for standard rate. This concept of multiple rate of tax under GST regime could impact the pharma/health science industry as the business models followed by this industry typically involves import/manufacture and sale of life saving drugs, medical devices and other formulations, which presently attract either NIL rate of duty under central excise/VAT or lower rate of excise duty at 4%. Presently clinical trial services/R&D services attract service tax at 10.30%.
The growth trajectory of the IPM is expected to continue to go north despite slowdown in the US and European economies in 2012.

Conclusion:

Like many other sectors, the pharmaceutical industry of India also witnessed the reform oriented policy paralysis of the government in 2011, barring some superficial, half- hearted and incomplete initiatives, as indicated above.

Key areas of general public health interest, encouraging innovation, fostering R&D and improving access to medicines to alleviate healthcare related problems of the common man and at the same time to propel the industry to the inclusive high growth trajectory, have still remained unanswered.

Faster recovery from reform-oriented policy paralysis of the government and effective translation into reality of the seemingly good intent of the policy makers, is now eagerly awaited in 2012.

By: Tapan J Ray

The domestic API players are fast losing their dominance in the Indian API market

Posted on October 24, 2011 by Tapan Ray

There are two broad categories of markets for the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) across the world namely, highly regulated and semi regulated markets. Countries like, USA, Europe and Japan will fall under highly regulated category with high entry barriers for the global API players like, robust Intellectual Property (IP) regime and stringent regulatory requirements to meet their product quality standards. Such an environment prompts a premium price for the APIs. On the other hand, the semi regulated markets, which offer low entry barriers with not so stringent IP and regulatory requirements, attract more number of API players engaging in cut throat price competition.

The top three markets for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are the US, Europe and Asia Pacific. According to ‘Business Wire (July 13, 2011), the API market in the Asia-Pacific is expected to grow from 6.7% between 2005 and 2010 to 9.6% between 2010 and 2016.

Currently a perceptible shift in API manufacturing is being noticed from the western markets to the emerging markets like, India and China. In the Asia Pacific region Japan and China enjoy the highest market share for API with 42.8% and 20.8%, respectively. India accounts for 10.3%, while South Korea holds an 8.1% share of the market. To avoid price erosions now seen in the US, Indian manufacturers have started exporting more APIs to Japan.

In 2010, contribution of generic API from the Asia-Pacific market was at 71.5%, with patented APIs contributing for the rest, where Japan enjoys a larger share than India and China. While this is the current scenario, many experts in this field contemplates that important players from the regulated markets will soon start making significant inroads in India.

Current API Market in India:
In 2007 the API output value in India was around US $4.1 billion registering a 5 year CAGR of around 19% and ranking fourth in the world API output. According to the Tata Strategic Management Group, Indian API export value is expected to increase to US $12.75 billion in 2012.

Currently in India about 400 different types of APIs are manufactured in around 3000 plants, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Lupin, Shasun Pharmaceuticals, Orchid Chemicals, Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Ipca Laboratories and USV being the top API manufacturers of the country. Indian domestic companies source almost 50 percent of their API requirements from China, because of lower cost in that country.

In terms of global ranking, India is now the third largest API producers of the world just after China and Italy and by end 2011 is expected to be the second largest producer after China. However, in Drug Master File (DMF) filings India is currently ahead of China.

In addition, India scores over China in ‘documentation’ and ‘Environment, Health and Safety (EHS)’ compliance. All these have contributed to India having around 125 US-FDA approved world class manufacturing facilities, which is considered the largest outside the USA.
Indian API manufacturers are facing a cut throat competition from their Chinese counterparts mainly because of lower costs in China. Considerably higher economies of scale and various types of support that the Chinese API manufacturers receive from their Government are the main reasons for such cost differential.
Growing competition from the regulated markets:
We now observe a new trend within the API space in India. Many of the global innovators and generic companies are keen to enter into the API space of India.

It is known that API manufacturers from the regulated markets are already selling their products in India. However, at present, the numbers of Indian registrations for API applied by some of the large global companies, as reported by ‘Thomson Reuters Newport Horizon Premium’, are quite significant, which are as follows:

1. Novartis, Switzerland: 20 2. Pfizer, USA: 16 3. Sanofi-Aventis, France: 26 4. Teva, Israel: 45 5. MSD, USA: 39 6. BASF: 37 7. DSM: 26 8. EON AG: 16 9. Kyowa Hakko: 23

All these companies, who are entering into the API business space in India, I reckon, have worked out a grand design to compete not only with the low cost domestic API manufacturers, but also with the cheaper imports, particularly from China.

China an emerging global force to reckon with in the API market:

An economy of scale leading to cost leadership is fast establishing China in the global API market as a force to reckon with. Dominant presence of China even in the bulk intermediate category with high level of technical expertise, especially in the fermentation technology, strong manufacturing base, supported by increasing standard of regulatory compliance and better IP protection, as perceived by the global pharmaceutical community, are helping the API manufacturers of China to gradually increase their presence even in the highly regulated markets of the world.

In this emerging scenario, when China throws a tough competition to the API producers of India, developing and manufacturing niche APIs will be the key differentiating factors for the Indian players to maintain their global presence in future, especially with APIs involving non-fermentation technology.

What will then be the competitive edge of these companies in India?
It appears that each of these companies has weighed very carefully the existing strategic opportunities in the API sectors of India, both in terms of technology as well as domestic demand.

Strategic gap in API manufacturing technology:
India, undeniably, is one of the key global hubs in the API space, with competitive edge mainly in ‘non-fermentation technology’ product areas. This leaves a wide and perceptible technological gap in the areas of products requiring ‘fermentation technology‘.

Significant demand from domestic formulations manufacturing:
India is much ahead of China in pharmaceutical formulations manufacturing, especially in the area of exports to the regulated markets like, the USA and EU. Over 25 domestic Indian companies are currently catering to exports demand of the U.S market. However, it is interesting to note that the global manufacturers like Sandoz, Eisai, Watson, Mylan have already set up their formulations manufacturing facilities in India and some more are expected to follow suit over a period of time. Hence, fast growing domestic demand for APIs, especially for exports, will drive the business plan of the global API players for India.

Is the cost arbitrage of India sustainable?
Indian API manufacturers although currently have a cost advantage compared to their counterparts in the regulated market, this advantage is not sustainable over a period of time because of various reasons. The key reason being sharp increase in cost related to more stringent environmental and regulatory compliance, besides spiraling manpower and other overhead costs.

Indian regulatory requirements for the global API players:
To sell their APIs into India, global companies are now required to obtain the following regulatory approvals from the Indian authorities:

1. Foreign manufacturing sites for the concerned products

2. APIs which will be imported in the country

The Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has stipulated a fee of U.S$1,500 to register the manufacturing premises and U.S$1,000 to register each individual API. Since January 2003, around 1,200 registration certificates have been issued in India. Large number of Indian registrations is attributed by many to the strategic technology gap in India, as stated above, demand of high-quality API for finished formulations required by the regulated markets like the U.S and EU, and relatively cheaper product registration process.

As we see above Teva has gone for maximum number of Indian registrations, so far and most probably selling the APIs to their contract formulations manufacturers in India. Similarly, Schering-Plough and Sanofi, if not Pfizer are perhaps catering to the API demand of their respective formulations manufacturing plants in the country.

Apprehension of counterfeit APIs from the emerging markets:

Growing apprehensions of counterfeit APIs from the emerging markets like, India and China must also be addressed expeditiously by all concerned.

‘The New York Times’ dated August 15, 2011 reported that APIs from India, China and elsewhere now constitute 80% of the active ingredients in US drugs. The US FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg was quoted saying, “Supply chains for many generic drugs often contain dozens of middlemen and are highly susceptible to being infiltrated by falsified drugs.”

Conclusion:

Be that as it may, some key global players mainly China, as mentioned above, are now exporting APIs at a much larger scale to India and in that process have started curving out a niche for themselves in the Indian API market. Impressive growth of the domestic pharmaceutical formulations manufacturing market fueled by increasing domestic consumption and exports to the regulated markets, coupled with gradual improvement in the regulatory environment of the country and some global collaboration for the pharmaceutical formulations sourcing from India, are expected to drive the growth of API business of the global players in India. However, the moot question still remains: will the Indian API players be able to thrive or even survive the tough competition from the global players, especially China?

Disclaimer:The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

A National Regulatory Standard is necessary for MRs of the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

Posted on October 3, 2011 by Tapan Ray

Medical Representatives (MR) form the bedrock of business success, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India. The Job of MRs is tough and high voltage one, laced with moments of elation and sprinkles of frustration, while generating prescription demand for selected products in an assigned business territory. Though educational qualifications, relevant product and disease knowledge, professional conduct and ethical standards vary widely among them, they are usually friendly, mostly wearing a smile even while working in an environment of long and flexible working hours.

Currently, there is a huge challenge in India to strike a right balance between the level and quality of sales pitch generated for a brand by the MRs, at times even without being armed with required scientific knowledge and following professional conduct/ ethical standards, while doing their job.

It is critical for the MRs to understand scientific details of the products, its mode of action in a disease condition, precautions and side-effects in order to be fair to the job and be successful. As MRs are not just salesmen, they must always be properly educated in their respective fields and constantly hone their knowledge and skills to remain competitive.

A qualitative study:

Indian J Med Ethics, 2007 Apr-June; 4(2) reported a qualitative study to determine a wide range of pharmaceutical promotional practices by the MRs influencing prescription of medicines in Mumbai. The study highlighted:

“An unholy alliance: Manufacturers, chemists and doctors conspire to make profits at the expense of consumers and public health, even as they negotiate with each other on their respective shares of profits”.

The paper identified misleading information, incentives and unethical trade practices as methods to increase the prescription and sale of drugs. It reported, besides other points that MRs provide incomplete medical information to influence prescribing practices.

‘Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices’ is necessary, but just not enough:

Gift-giving, ethical vs. unethical promotion, transparency and self-regulation appear to be the main issues in the pharmaceutical industry right across the globe. Owing to inadequate national legislation and the lack of universally accepted self-regulatory codes, the pharmaceutical industry in India has yet to tackle the problem of alleged “Unethical drug marketing practices”.

After a protracted debate on this subject by the pharmaceutical companies, in May 2011, the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) came out with a draft ‘Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCMP)’ to address this issue squarely and effectively in India.

This decision of the government is the culmination of a series of events, covered widely by the various sections of the media, since 2004. Be that as it may, the UCMP, in my view, is just not enough to address the issue of alleged, “Unethical drug marketing practices” holistically.

A mandatory ‘accreditation/certification’ program for MRs is the need of the hour:

Countries like United Kingdom (UK) and Australia with much longer experience of dealing with pharmaceutical industry than India, have appropriate mechanisms, safeguards and legislation in place to deal with the pharmaceutical marketing practices. Even the pharmaceutical industry in the UK and Australia have controlling authorities with comprehensive standards in place to deal with proper education, professional conducts and ethics for the MRs. Similar mandatory ‘accreditation/certification’ program for MRs, in my view, is also necessary in India without any further delay.

India should learn from others to work out a robust process:

Even with such systems and regulations in place, both in the UK and Australia, some ethical issues still remain unresolved. In Australia the largest consumer organization highlights, “that it is a conflict of interest for the Code to be administered by the industry peak body.” and “it is also concerned that the sanctions available in the Code do little to prevent breaches”. United Kingdom is no exception in this regard.

Other markets are fast catching up:

Very recently in Turkey, Turkish Ministry of Health published a new pharmaceutical promotion regulation, which specifies for the first time a certification obligation for the MRs.

In Philippines, ‘MR Accreditation Program (MRAP)’ started about 8 to10 years ago. MRAP is administered by the Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Association of Philippines. The certifying examination is accredited by the Professional Regulation Commission (PRC) under its Board of Pharmacy of the Government of Philippines.

In Japan there is a certification program for the MR since 1997, which is administered by the MR Education and Accreditation Center of Japan, a public service corporation. One has to receive over 450 hours education and training in Japan to be qualified for the examination. Even after being qualified in the certification examination, at least 50 hours of continuing education is required every year to keep the certification updated that expires after 5 years.

In Germany, under German law and practice, MRs have either the status of “pharma advisors” (“Pharmaberater”) as specified in German Drugs Act or they have to pass the examination for certified MRs (“Pharmareferent”), which is accessible online.

“Pharma Advisors” have science background as a pharmacist, chemist, physician, veterinarian etc. whereas other MRs are required to obtain scientific and medicinal knowledge through suitable education and training program, which will lead to an examination for certification by the German authorities. All MRs are required to start the program within 6 months of employment in the industry and complete the five modules within 2 years.

In Canada ‘the Code of Ethical Practices’ requires the MRs to complete an accreditation course offered by the Council for Continuing Pharmaceutical Education within two years of commencing their employment.

In USA, there is no official MR certification program.

In Hungary, the MR certification program is administered officially by the Health Authority of the country.

In Indonesia, this is administered officially by the state/ governmental bodies or by the industry through an outside consulting organization, which issues certificates after successful completion of the examination.

In Argentina, MR Certification Program is required by the law of the land. In order to include the name in the ‘Registry of MR’, a qualifying degree as medical sales representative, issued by a tertiary educational institution and/or officially acknowledged training institutions, is essential.

In South Africa, they have certification only for marketing code training, which is administered by an independent Marketing Code Authority.

In Sweden, this course is administered by an external course organizer on behalf of LIF Sweden.

However, Swedish companies nowadays prefer to employ pharmacists, who do not need to take the examination.

A National regulatory standard for MRs is necessary in India:

India is now one of fastest growing emerging pharmaceutical markets of the world with 3rd global ranking in volume of production and 13th in value terms. Domestic turnover of the industry is around US$ 12.1 billion in June 2011 (IMS) representing just over 1% of the global pharmaceutical industry turnover of US$ 850 billion (IMS). Since 1970, Indian pharmaceutical Industry has rapidly evolved from almost a non-entity to meeting around 20% of the global requirements for high quality and low cost generic medicines.

Unfortunately, despite a fast evolving scenario, appropriate regulations in various areas of the industry in India have not been worked out, as yet, to derive the best mileage out of this scorching pace of growth of the industry. India still does not have a national code of conduct or regulatory standards applicable to MRs.

Only the clause 4 of ‘The Magic Remedies (Objectionable Advertisement) Act, 1954’ deals with misleading advertisements. It is about time to formulate not just a national code on pharmaceutical marketing practices, but also a mandatory accreditation program and qualifying criteria for the MRs for entire pharmaceutical industry in India, like many other countries of the world.

Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of the Government of India in its website lists the “Laws Pertaining to Manufacture and Sale of Drugs in India”. However, it does not specify any regulation for the MRs nor does it recommend any standard of qualification and training for them, which is so critical for all concerned.

Conclusion:

In the above scenario, the moot question is without any comprehensive and formalized uniform national standards of educational qualification, knowledge, ethics and professional conduct being in place for the MRs, are they getting right uniform inputs, across the board, to appropriately interact with the medical profession in a manner that will benefit the patients and at the same remain within the boundary of professional conduct and medical ethics?

Thus, a National regulatory standard for MRs, I reckon, is absolutely necessary in India… sooner the better.

Biosimilar Drugs: The Roadblocks and the Road Ahead

Posted on September 5, 2011 by Tapan Ray

Unlike commonly used ‘small molecule’ chemical based drugs, ‘large molecule’ biologic drugs are developed from living cells and using very complex processes. These groups of drugs could range from simpler insulin to therapy for treating complex ailments like, cancer and almost invariably attract a high price tag, which could run even in thousands of dollars.

It is virtually impossible to replicate these protein substances, unlike the ‘small molecule’ drugs. One can at best develop a biologically similar molecule with the application of high degree of biotechnological expertise. These drugs are usually much less expensive than the original ones and called ‘Biosimilar Drugs’. It is expected that ‘biosimilar drugs’ will have lesser market competition than the conventional ‘small molecule’ generic drugs, mainly because of complexity and costs involved in their developmental process.

Future growth potential:

In most of the developed countries, besides regulatory issues, ‘Biosimilar drugs’ are considered to be a threat to the fast growing global biotech industry. At the same time, it is widely believed that in the rapidly evolving global concern for cheaper and more affordable medicines for patients across the world, relatively smaller biotech companies, given the required wherewithal at their disposal, could emerge as winners in this new ball game as compared to traditional generic pharmaceutical players.

Novartis (Sandoz) – first to launch a ‘Biosimilar drug’ in the US:

In mid-2006, US FDA approved its first ‘Biosimilar drug’- Omnitrope of Sandoz (Novartis) following a court directive. Omnitrope is a copycat version of Pfizer’s human growth hormone, Genotropin. Interestingly, Sandoz had also taken the US FDA to court for keeping its regulatory approval pending for some time in the absence of a well-defined regulatory pathway for ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the USA. The CEO of Sandoz had then commented, “The FDA’s approval is a breakthrough in our goal of making high-quality and cost-effective follow-on biotechnology medicines like Omnitrope available for healthcare providers and patients worldwide”. Despite this event, none at that time expected the US FDA to put regulatory guidelines in place for approval of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the country.

Merck’s entry was through an acquisition:

Merck announced its entry into the ‘Biosimilar drugs’ business on February 12, 2009 with its acquisition of Insmed’s portfolio for US$ 130 million in cash. Rich pipeline of follow-on biologics of Insmed is expected to help Merck to hasten its entry into global ‘Biosimilar drugs’ markets.

Other recent global initiatives:

Merck paid US$ 720 million to Hanwha for rights to its copy of Enbrel of Amgen
Samsung of South Korea has set up a biosimilars joint venture with Quintiles to create a contract manufacturer for biotech drugs.
Celltrion and LG Life Sciences have expressed global ambitions in biosimilar drugs.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) has already been marketing a biosimilar version of Rituxan of Roche since 2007.
According to Reuter (June 22, 2011), Merck, Novartis (Sandoz), Teva and Pfizer are expected to be strong players in the biosimilar market.
Reliance Life Science though has faced a setback in Europe with the regulators asking for more data for its copy of EPO prompting them to withdraw their application for now, is also a potential player in the biosimilar market.

Many other developments are also now taking place in the space of ‘Biosimilar drugs’, the world over. To fetch maximum benefits out of this emerging opportunity, India has started taking steps to tighten its regulatory process for marketing approval of such drugs. This is absolutely necessary to allay general apprehensions on drug safety with inadequate clinical data for similar protein substances.

Current status in the US:

President Barak Obama administration of the US has been expressing for quite some time a strong intent to pave the way for ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the US. To facilitate this process, a new draft legislation titled, “Promoting Innovation and Access to Life Saving Medicine Act” was introduced by the legislators of the country. This legislation came into force with the announcement by US-FDA the outline of how biopharmaceutical players can submit their application for marketing approval of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the country. Many industry players have since then been gearing up, across the world, to have a share of the potentially large ‘biosimilar drugs’ market in the US.

Challenging clinical data requirements in the US:

According to ‘Biologics Price Competition and Innovation Act of 2009 (BPCI Act)’, which was enacted in the US on March 23, 2010, any biological substance to be “biosimilar” will require to be “highly similar to the reference product, notwithstanding minor differences in clinically inactive components”. BPCI also specifies that there should be “no clinically meaningful differences between the biological product and the reference product in terms of the safety, purity, and potency of the product”. It is interesting to note that the Act emphasizes on ‘clinical similarity’ rather than ‘biological or structural similarity’ between the original and ‘biosimilar drugs’.

The New England Journal of Medicine dated August 4, 2011 reported that US-FDA is in the process of establishing very challenging clinical requirements from the makers of ‘biosimilar drugs’ for obtaining marketing approval in the country. Such stringent regulatory requirements are expected to push up the cost of development of ‘biosimilar drugs’ significantly, seriously limiting the number of players in the market.

12 years Exclusivity in the US:

In the US, the innovator companies get 12 years exclusivity for their original biologic drugs from the date of respective marketing approvals by the FDA.

The BPCI Act clearly specifies that applications for ‘biosimilar drugs’ to the FDA will not be made effective by the regulator before 12 years from the date of approval of the innovators’ products. In addition, if the original product is for pediatric indications, the 12-years exclusivity may get an extension for another six months.

However, the key point to note here is, if the FDA starts its review process for the ‘biosimilar drugs’ only after the 12 year period, the innovator companies in that case, will effectively get, at least, one more year of exclusivity over and above the 12 years period, when the applicants for ‘biosimilar drugs’ will keep waiting for marketing approval from the FDA.

The market:

According to Datamonitor the global market for ‘biosimilars drugs’ is expected to grow from US$ 243 million in 2010 to around US $3.7 billion by 2015.

Another report points out that only in the top two largest pharmaceutical markets of the world, the USA and EU, sales of ‘biosimilar drugs’ will record a turnover of US$ 16 billion in the next couple of years when about 60 biotech products will go off-patent.

The Indian biotech players:

Such a lucrative business opportunity in the west is obviously attracting many Indian players, like, Biocon, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, Ranbaxy, Wockhardt, Shantha Biotech, Reliance Life Science etc., who have already acquired expertise in the development of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ like, erythropoietin, insulin, monoclonal antibodies, interferon-Alfa, which are not only being marketed in India but are also exported to other non/less-regulated markets of the world.

Ranbaxy in collaboration with Zenotech Laboratories is engaged in global development of Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor (GCSF) formulations. Wockhardt is expected to enter into the Global ‘Biosimilar drugs’ market shortly. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Biocon are also preparing themselves for global development and marketing of insulin products, GCSF and streptokinase formulations.

Funding by the Government of India:

It has been reported that the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) of the Government of India has proposed funding of US$ 68 million for ‘biosimilar drugs’ through Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives, where soft loans will be made available to the Indian biotech companies for the same. Currently DBT spends reportedly around US$200 million annually towards biotechnology related initiatives.

Key success factors for rapid acceptance in the developed markets:

According to a new research finding from ‘The Decision Resources’, one of the key success factors for any such new drugs is how quickly the specialists will accept them. So far as biosimilar drugs are concerned they noted a high level of concern, if such drugs are not supported by robust sets of clinical data on the claimed treatment indications.

Conclusion:

With increasing global cost-containment pressures within the healthcare space, the emergence of a lucrative global ‘biosimilar drugs’ market now appears to be inevitable.

In the fast evolving scenario, major research based global bio-pharma and even the pure pharmaceutical companies will have two clear choices. The first choice is the conventional one of competing with ‘biosimilar drugs’ in all important markets of the world. However, the second choice of jumping into the fray, keeping undiluted focus on R&D, appears to be more prudent and perhaps will also make a shrewd horse sense. Only future will tell us, which of these two business senses will prevail, in the run up to success, for the global biotech companies.

With the above background, the report from the ‘Business Wire’ highlighting the fact, ‘the manufacture and development of a biosimilar molecule requires an investment of about US$ 10 to 20 million in India, as compared to US$ 50 to 100 million in developed countries’, vindicates the emergence of another lucrative business opportunity for India.

With around 40% cost arbitrage, as indicated above and without compromising on the required stringent international regulatory standards, the domestic ‘biosimilar’ players should be able to establish India as one of the most preferred manufacturing destinations to meet the global requirements for ‘biosimilar drugs’.

Experience in conforming to stringent US FDA manufacturing standards, having largest number of US FDA approved plants outside USA, India has already acquired a clear advantage in manufacturing high technology chemical based pharmaceutical products in India. Significant improvement in conformance to Good Clinical Practices (GCP) standards will offer additional advantages.

In addition to cost efficiency, available skill sets in developing ‘biosimilar drugs’, will offer another critical advantage to the domestic players in reaching out to the international ‘biosimilar drugs’ markets either by themselves or with appropriate collaborative arrangements, just as we have recently witnessed in case of Biocon’s strategic collaboration with Pfizer in this rapidly evolving sector of the world.

Disclaimer:The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Could M&As in Pharma create significant stakeholder value?

Posted on April 25, 2011 by Tapan Ray

At the very outset, I pay my homage to the departed soul of our industry colleague respected Amar Lulla, former joint managing director of Cipla, who passed away on Friday, April 22, 2011 after a prolonged battle against cancer.

As we know, “Merger and Acquisition (M&A)” is an inorganic growth tool of any business. In this model growth in business operations arise from value creation through mergers or takeovers of other companies, rather than from increase in the company’s own existing business activities.

On April 13, 2011, quoting a study released by Burrill & Co, a noted life sciences investment firm, ‘Fierce Pharma’ reported that “drug makers’ deal making over the past 10 years has utterly and completely failed to build value in the industry. Big Pharma has actually lost almost $1 trillion in value during the past decade.”

Big Pharmas lost value in the past decade through deal making:

Burrill argued: “The drug industry’s 17 most active buyers had a combined market value of $1.57 trillion at the end of 2000. By the end of 2010, that value had shrunk to $1.04 trillion–notwithstanding the $425 billion in acquisitions these companies made during the decade with a total loss of $955 billion.”

The report commented that global pharma majors could not make up non-delivery of innovative products through these acquisitions.

M&As triggered by in-market blockbuster products, were successful in the past:

It was observed that those M&As, which were triggered by in-market blockbuster products were successful in the past. Like for example:

Year	M&A	Product/Products
2000	Pfizer and Warner Lambert	Lipitor
2006	Eli Lilly-ICOS	Cialis
2008	Eli Lilly- ImClone	Erbitux

However, when a company was acquired for products in development or R&D pipelines, it was observed that acquirer could not derive full benefits of their respective inorganic growth plans, as many of those projects did not fructify or could not be continued in the long run for various different reasons. I am not trying to go into those details in this article.

It is usually believed that healthcare companies with diversified interests along with pharmaceuticals and biotech business, like, diagnostic, devices and generic pharmaceuticals encountered much lesser growth pangs in the past. I reckon, it is for this reason, companies like, Abbott, J&J, Roche and Novartis registered overall better business performance than their pure pharmaceutical business counterparts like, Merck, Pfizer etc.

Only future will tell us whether high takeover prices, such as US$ 68 bn paid by Pfizer for Wyeth or US$ 46 bn of Roche for Genentech or US$ 41 bn of Merck for Schering-Plough, mainly to acquire the drug pipelines of the respective companies, can ultimately be justified or not. At this stage, it is indeed extremely difficult to quantify the transaction value of phase III drugs that Pfizer, Roche and Merck acquired with these mega deals.

However, about a couple of years ago ‘Forbes’ in its article titled, “Will Pfizer’s Merger Hurt Innovation?” published in January 26, 2009 commented as follows:

“Between 1998 and now, Pfizer has launched only one medicine with annual sales surpassing $1 billion, despite ploughing more than $60 billion into research and development. That drug, the pain med Lyrica, was already in development at Warner-Lambert when Pfizer bought it.”

Other significant global M&A initiatives in 2010 were as follows:

Global Companies	Value (US $ billion)
Sepracor by Dainippon Sumitomo	2.6
77% of Alcon (the eye care unit of Nestle) by Novartis	50
Millipore by Merck KGA	6
OSI Pharma by Astellas	4
King Pharma by Pfizer	3.6
BioVex by Amgen	1
Ratiopharm by Teva	5

In addition, work is in progress for some more M&A initiatives, like the hostile bid of US $ 20 billion of Sanofi Aventis for Genzyme in 2011. J&J’s offer of US $2.3 billion for vaccines of Crucell; Valeant’s hostile bid for Cephalon of US $ 5.7 billion, and J&J’s talk with Synthes for an acquisition with US $20 billion.

Emerging markets: the Eldorado:

At the same time, IMS Health reports that emerging markets will register a growth rate of 14% to 17% by 2014, significantly driven by generic pharmaceuticals, when the developed markets will be growing by 3% to 6% during this period. It is forecasted that the global pharmaceutical industry will record a turnover of US$1.1 trillion by this time.

Probably prompted by this overall market scenario, the global pharmaceutical majors are still trying to keep their heads above water through deal making and various collaborative initiatives. India, being one of the fastest growing global pharmaceutical markets, has also started experiencing this consolidation process.

Real consolidation process in India commenced in 2006: The consolidation process in India started gaining momentum from the year 2006 with the acquisition of Matrix Lab by Mylan, although 2009 witnessed the biggest merger in the Pharmaceutical Industry of India, thus far, in value terms, when the third largest drug maker of Japan, Daiichi Sankyo acquired 63.9% stake of Ranbaxy Laboratories of India for US $4.6 billion.
This was widely believed to be a win-win deal for both the companies with Daiichi Sankyo leveraging the cost arbitrage of Ranbaxy effectively, while Ranbaxy benefiting from the innovative products range of Daiichi Sankyo. This deal also established Daiichi Sankyo as one of the leading pharmaceutical generic manufacturers of the world, making the merged company a force to reckon with, in the space of both innovative and generic pharmaceuticals business.
Another mega acquisition soon followed:
In May 2010, the Pharma major in the US Abbott catapulted itself to number one position in the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) by acquiring the branded generics business of Piramal Healthcare with whopping US$3.72 billion. Abbott acquired Piramal Healthcare at around 9 times of its sales multiple against around 4 times of the same paid by Daiichi Sankyo.

According to Michael Warmuth, senior vice-president, established products of Abbott the sales turnover of Abbott in India, after this acquisition, will grow from its current around US$ 480 million to US$2.5 billion by the next decade.

Was the valuation right for the acquired companies?
Abbott had valued formulations business of Piramal Healthcare at about eight times of sales, which is almost twice of what Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo paid for its US$4.6 billion purchase of a controlling stake in India’s Ranbaxy Laboratories in June 2008.

On the valuation, Warmuth of Abbott has reportedly commented “If you want the best companies you will pay a premium; however, we feel it was the right price.”

This is not surprising at all, as we all remember Daiichi Sankyo commented that the valuation was right for Ranbaxy, even when they wrote off US$3.5 billion on its acquisition.
In my opinion, considering the fact that not too many attractive acquisition targets are available within the domestic pharmaceutical industry, the valuation of any well performed Indian Pharmaceutical Company will continue to remain high, at least in the short to medium term… and why not, when the domestic pharmaceutical industry is growing so well, consistently?

M&As in India from 2006 to 2010:

Year	Indian Companies	Multinational Companies	Value ($Mn)	Type
2006
	Matrix Labs	Mylan	736	Acquisition
	Dabur Pharma	Fresenius Kabi	219	Acquisition
	Ranbaxy Labs	Daiichi Sankyo	4,600	Acquisition
	Shantha Biotech	Sanofi-aventis	783	Acquisition
2009
	Orchid Chemicals	Hospira	400	Business Buyout
2010
	Piramal Healthcare	Abbott	3,720	Business Buyout
	Paras Pharma	Reckitt Benkiser	726	Acquisition

Collaborative deals in India from 2009 to 2011:

Year	Multinational Companies	Indian Companies
2009
	GSK	Dr. Reddy’s Lab
	Pfizer	Aurobindo Pharma
2010
	AstraZeneca	Torrent
	Abbott	Cadila Healthcare
	Pfizer	Strides Arcolab
	AstraZeneca	Aurobindo Pharma
	Pfizer	Biocon
2011
	Bayer	Cadila Healthcare
	MSD	Sun Pharma

The Key driver for acquisition of large Indian companies:
Such strategies highlight the intent of the global players to quickly grab sizeable share of the highly fragmented IPM – the second fastest growing and one of the most important emerging markets of the world.
If there is one most important key driver for such consolidation process in India, I reckon it will undoubtedly be the strategic intent of the global companies to dig their heel deep into the fast growing Indian branded generic market, contributing over 99% of the IPM. The same process is being witnessed in other fast growing emerging pharmaceutical markets, as well, the growth of which is basically driven by the branded generic business.
Important characteristics to target the branded generic companies:
To a global acquirer the following seem to be important requirements while shortlisting its target companies:
• Current sales and profit volume of the domestic branded generic business • Level of market penetration and the rate of growth of this business • Strength, spread and depth of the product portfolio • Quality of the sales and marketing teams • Valuation of the business
Faster speed of consolidation process could slow down the speed of evolution of the ‘generics pharmaceutical industry’ in India: Though quite unlikely, if the moderate valuation of large Indian companies starts attracting more and more global pharmaceutical majors, the speed of evolution of the ‘local generic pharmaceutical industry’ in the country could slow down, despite entry of newer smaller players in the market.

The global companies will then acquire a cutting edge on both sides of the pharmaceutical business, discovering and developing innovative patented medicines while maintaining a dominant presence in the fast growing emerging branded generics market across the world.
An alarm bell in the Indian Market for a different reason:
It has been reported that being alarmed by these developments, some industry insiders feel, “Lack of available funding is the main reason for the recent spurt in the sale of stakes in domestic companies”.
They have reportedly urged the Government to adequately fund the research and development (R&D) initiatives of the local Pharmaceutical Companies to ensure a safeguard against further acquisition of large Indian generic players by the global pharmaceutical majors. It is a fact that the domestic Indian companies do not have adequate capital to fund cost-intensive R&D projects in India even after having a significant cost arbitrage.
Will such consolidation process now gain momentum in India?
In my view, it will take some more time for acquisitions of large domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies by the Global Pharma majors to gain momentum in the country. In the near future, we shall rather witness more strategic collaborations between Indian and Global pharmaceutical companies, especially in the generic space, as indicated above.
The number of high profile M&As of Indian pharma companies will significantly increase, as I mentioned earlier, when the valuation of the domestic companies appears quite attractive to the global pharma majors. This could happen, as the local players face more cut-throat competition both in Indian and international markets, squeezing their profit margin.
It won’t be a cake walk either…not just yet:
Be that as it may, establishing dominance in the highly fragmented and fiercely competitive IPM will not be a ‘cakewalk’ for any company, not even for the global pharmaceutical majors. Many Indian branded generic players are good marketers too. Companies like, Cipla, Sun Pharma, Alkem, Mankind, Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) have proven it time and again, over a period of so many years.
The acquisition of Ranbaxy by Daiichi Sankyo did not change anything in the competition front. Currently the market share of Abbott, post M&A, including Solvay and Piramal Healthcare, comes to just around 6.2% followed by Cipla at 5.5% (Source: AIOCD). This situation in no way signifies domination by Abbott in the IPM, far from creating any oligopolistic pharmaceutical market in India.
Thus the pharmaceutical market in the country will continue to remain fragmented with cut-throat competition from the existing and the newer tough minded, innovative and determined local branded generic players having cost arbitrage, cerebral power and untiring spirit of competitiveness with a burning desire to win.
Simultaneously, some of the domestic pharmaceutical companies are in the process of creating a sizeable Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) sector to service the global pharmaceutical market.
Conclusion:
In my view, it does not make long term business sense to pay such unusually high prices for the branded generics business of any Indian company. Besides the report of Burrill & Co., we also have with us examples of some of the Indian pharmaceutical acquisitions in the overseas market are not working satisfactorily as the regulatory requirements for the low cost generics drugs were changed in those countries.
Most glaring example is the acquisition of the German generic company Betapharm by DRL for US$ 570 million in 2006. It was reported that like Piramals, a significant part of the valuation of Betapharm was for its trained sales team. However, being caught in a regulatory quagmire, the ultimate outcome of this deal turned sour for DRL.
Could similar situation arise in India, as well? Who knows? What happens then to such expensive acquisitions, if for example, prescriptions by generic names are made mandatory by the Government within the country, despite intensive lobbying efforts?

Be that as it may, in India also, a study like, ‘Burrill Report” could be quite useful to ascertain whether or not the deal making of global and local drug majors in the country over a ten year period commencing from 2006 onwards, has succeeded to create desired stakeholder value.

By: Tapan J Ray

Tapan Ray in ‘Focus Reports’, March 2011

Posted on April 4, 2011 by Tapan Ray

FR: Our last report on India dates back to 2006, right after the Patent Law was passed. What developments have you seen happening in the industry since then?

TR: There has been a paradigm shift with the Product Patent Regime coming in place in 2005. The era from 1970 to 2005 has been a very successful era of reverse engineering, when Indian manufacturers were copying and marketing innovative products in India at a fraction of their international price. Nevertheless, this also required talent, for which India had brilliant process chemists. However, the country eventually realized that reverse engineering model would not truly serve the longer term advancement of the economy in creating a conducive ecosystem to foster innovation. This realization process started in 1990 and was reinforced after signing the WTO Agreement in 1995. After the ten-year transition period, the patent law came into force in January 2005.

Since around 2005 Indian companies, which had mainly been relying on cost efficient processes, started investing in the drug discovery research. There are now at least 10 Indian companies engaged in basic research, while around 32 New Chemical Entities (NCEs) are at various stages of development.

This significant step that the country has taken so far, could not have been possible without a conscious decision to move away from the paradigm of replication to the new paradigm of innovation. More importantly, this shift has not happened at the cost of fast growing generic pharmaceutical industry in the country. Branded generics continue to grow rapidly in the new paradigm.

Today, branded generics constitute over 99% of the domestic pharmaceutical market. Of course, according to McKinsey (2007), the share of patented medicines is expected to increase to 10% by 2015. Even in that scenario 90% of the market will still constitute with branded generics in value terms.

FR: At the same time, companies are still only spending some 4% of their revenues on R&D, while internationally these numbers amount up to 12%. Many of the people in the industry seem to still see the future of India for the next 10 years to remain in manufacturing. Is innovation really the story of India right now?

TR: As I mentioned earlier, around 32 NCEs are at various stages of development from pre-clinical to Phase III. Thus, what Indian companies have achieved since 2005, is, indeed remarkable. If you now look at the investments made by the Indian pharmaceutical companies in R&D, as a percentage of turnover, you will notice an ascending trend. Though the R&D ecosystem in India cannot be compared with the developed world just yet, India is catching up.

FR: In some previous interviews we have conducted, concerns were raised over the Indian industry, saying that the local companies are selling off to international players. What is your take on this?

TR: In India, we all express a lot of sentiments and are generally emotional in nature. These are not bad qualities by any standard. However, such expressions should ideally be supported by hard facts. Otherwise these expressions cannot be justified.

Consolidation process within the industry is a worldwide phenomenon and is also taking place in India. One of the apprehensions of such consolidation process in India is that drug prices would go up, as a consequence. In my view, all such apprehensions should be judged by what has already happened in our country by now, in this area.

One example we can cite is the Ranbaxy-Daiichi-Sankyo deal, an acquisition which has not at all led to an increase in Ranbaxy’s product prices. Similarly, the acquisition of India-based Shantha Biotech by the French pharmaceutical major, Sanofi-Aventis did not lead to any increase in product prices either. It is difficult to make out how could possibly the drug prices go up when we have an effective national price regulator called National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) in India? Currently, 100% of the pharmaceutical market in the country is regulated by NPPA in one way or the other.

India is currently having a drug policy which came into force way back in 1995. As per this drug policy, any company which increases its product price which are outside price control, by more than 10% in a year, will be called for an explanation by the NPPA. Without a satisfactory explanation, the concerned product – not the product category – will be brought under price control, that too for good. In addition, intensive cut-throat competition has made pharmaceutical product prices in India the cheapest in the world, even lower than in the neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Moreover, if the potential to increase prices exists, why would any company wait for an acquisition in a highly fragmented pharmaceutical market in India?

Many of the concerns are, therefore, difficult to justify due to lack of factual data. In fact, on the contrary, the presence of multinational pharmaceutical companies in India is good for the country. These companies with their international expertise and resources would help India to build capacity in terms of training and creating a world-class talent pool. Indian companies, therefore, should consider to take more and more initiatives to partner and collaborate with these MNCs to create a win-win situation for India.

Another key advantage is in the area of market penetration. Market penetration through value-added innovative marketing has happened and has been happening all over the world; India should not let go this opportunity.

FR: In that case, how do you feel about some of the proposed protectionist measures such as a 49% cap on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?

TR: This may, once again, be related to the strong local sentiments. India needs financial reforms and wants to attract more and more FDI. The country wants to liberalize the process of FDI and, to the best of my knowledge, any step to move backward in this area should not be contemplated.

It is also worth mentioning that the acquisitions that have taken place were not of any hostile nature. Both Indian companies and MNCs have their own sets of skills, competencies and best practices. Both cost revenue and value synergy through such consolidation process could be made beneficial for the country.

Without commenting on any specific cases, I believe India has taken significant steps to encourage and protect innovation by putting in place the product patent Act in 2005. However, there are some additional steps that the Government should take to further strengthen the process, such as fast-track courts that can quickly decide on the cases of patent infringements. Another example is that when any company will apply for marketing approval for a product, the regulator will upload the same on its website. This is an easy way for other players to detect patent infringement and start taking counter-measures at an early stage. These are examples of steps that can be taken to create a proper ecosystem without amending the law.

FR: You mentioned the paradigm shift towards innovation earlier, to some extent a similar path as China. How innovative has India become in this respect and is it sufficient in terms of clinical trials and other related aspects of the sector?

TR: With regards to attracting FDI in areas such as R&D and clinical trials, India at present is far behind China. The reason for this, as said earlier, is that the country should try to analyse why the innovator companies are not preferring India to China in these areas. Simultaneously, there is a need to assess the expectations of the innovative companies from India in various areas of IPR. One such factor that is bothering the global innovative companies is the absence of regulatory data protection in India. The Government should seriously ponder over this need and take active steps towards this direction as was proposed by ” Satwant Reddy Committee in 2007.”

FR: In your view, what is the industry going to look like in the coming years?

TR: I do not expect a radical shift in the way the Pharmaceutical Industry will be operating in the next few years. Changes will take place gradually and, perhaps, less radically. The increase of the share of patented medicines to 10% of the market share by 2015 as was forecasted by McKinsey in 2007, in my opinion, is rather ambitious. We will certainly see more and more patented products in the market, but it will be slow and gradual unless corrective measures are taken to tighten the loose knots in the Patent Amendment Act 2005, as stated earlier. As more and more Indian companies will start embracing an innovation-driven business model, the strengths and the international experience of the MNCs in this area should be leveraged to catapult the Indian pharmaceutical industry to a much higher growth trajectory.

The interview is available at the following link:

http://www.pharma.focusreports.net/#state=Interview&id=0

By: Tapan J Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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Tapan Ray in ‘Focus Reports’, March 2011