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Emerging markets and a robust oncology portfolio expected to be the future growth engine of the global pharmaceutical industry… but not without associated pricing pressures.

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When the growth rate of the developed markets of the global pharmaceutical industry started slowing down along with the declining R&D productivity, the emerging markets were identified as the new ‘El-Dorado’ by the global players. At the same time, new launch of anti-cancer drugs, more in number, started giving additional thrust to the growth engine of the industry, at least in the developed markets and for the ‘creamy layers’ of the emerging markets of the world. As cancer is being considered as one of the terminal illnesses, the cancer patients from all over the world, would like to have their anti-cancer medications, at any cost, even if it means just marginal prolongation of life with a huge debt burden.According to a recent study done by the Cancer Research, UK, despite significant decline in the overall global pharmaceutical R&D productivity over a period of time, in a relative yardstick, newer anti-cancer drugs have started coming up to the global market with a much greater frequency than ever before. ‘Pharmacy Europe’reports that 18 percent, against a previous estimate of 5 percent of 974 anti-cancer drugs will see the light of the day in the global market place, passing through stringent regulatory requirements. This is happening mainly because of sharper understanding of the basic biology of the disease by the research scientists.Another study reports that between 1995 and 2007 such knowledge has helped the scientists to molecularly target ‘kinase inhibitors’, which are much less toxic and offers much better side effect profile. Well known anti-cancer drug Herceptin of Roche is one of the many outcomes of molecularly targeted research.

Price of Anti-cancer drugs:

Although in the battle against the much dreaded disease cancer, the newer drugs which are now coming to the market, are quite expensive. Even in the developed markets the healthcare providers are feeling the heat of the cost pressure of such medications, which would in turn impact the treatment decisions. Probably because of this reason, to help the oncologists to appropriately discuss the treatment cost of anti-cancer drugs with the patients, the American Society of Clinical Oncology recently has formed a task force for the same.

The issue is now being fiercely debated even in the developed markets of the world:

In the developed markets of the world, for expensive cancer medications, the patients are required to bear the high cost of co-payment, which may run equivalent to thousands of U.S dollars. Many patients are finding it difficult to arrange for such high co-payments.

Thus, it has been reported that even the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), UK considers some anti-cancer drugs not cost-effective enough for inclusion in the NHS formulary, sparking another set of raging debate.

‘The New England Journal of Medicine’ in one of its recent articles with detail analysis, expressed its concern over sharp increase in the price of anti-cancer medications, specifically.

Is the global pharmaceutical industry in a ‘gold rush’ to get into the oncology business?

Recently ‘The New York Times’ reported some interesting details. One such was on the global sales of anti-cancer drugs. The paper reports that in 1998 only 12 anti-cancer drugs featured within the top 200 drugs, ranked in terms of global value turnover of each. In that year Taxol was the only anti-cancer drug to achieve the blockbuster status with a value turnover of U.S$ 1 billion.

However, in 2008, within top 200 top selling drugs, 23 were for cancer with three in the top ten, clocking a global turnover of over U.S$ 1 billion each. 20 out of 126 drugs recording a sales turnover over U.S$ billion each, were for cancer, impressive commercial growth story of which is far from over now.

How to address this issue?

Experts are now deliberating upon to explore the possibility of creating a ‘comparative effectiveness center’ for anti-cancer drugs. This center will be entrusted with the responsibility to find out the most cost effective and best suited anti-cancer drugs that will be suitable for a particular patient, eliminating the possibility of wasteful expenses, if any, with the new drugs, just because of their newness and some additional features, which may not be relevant to a particular patient. If several drugs are found to be working equally well on a patient, most cost effective medication will be recommended to the particular individual.

Some new anti-cancer medications are of ‘me-too’ type:

‘The Journal of National Cancer Institute’ reports that some high price anti-cancer drugs are almost of ‘me too’ type, which can at best prolong the life of a patient by a few months or even weeks. To give an example the journal indicated, ‘Erbitux for instance, prolongs survival in lung cancer patients by 1.2 months… at a cost of U.S$ 80, 000 for an 18 – week course of treatment.’

However, the manufacturer of the drug later told ‘The Wall Street Journal’ (WSJ), ‘U.S.$ 80,000 is like a sticker price, but the street price is closer to U.S$ 10,000 per month” i.e around U.S$ 45,000 for 18 week course of treatment.

Conclusion:

Even in the developed countries, the heated debate on expensive new drugs, especially, in the oncology segment is brewing up and may assume a significant proportion in not too distant future. India being one of the promising emerging markets for the global pharmaceutical industry, willy nilly will get caught in this debate, possibly with a force multiplier effect, sooner than later.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Indian and Global Pharmaceutical Industry – A brief perspective to meet the challenge of change

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A. INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE:
January 1, 2005 ushered in a paradigm shift in the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry with the new product patent regime. Future of the industry, thereafter, will never be the same again as what we have been witnessing since 1970.

Gradually India, which was synonymous to cheaper copycat generic versions of products patented in most of the developed and emerging pharmaceutical markets of the world, is expected to transit through a relatively ‘lull period’ for a shorter duration, before it starts helping to establish India as a force to reckon with, in the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) space of the world. We have seen some glimpses of the era to come by through initial basic research initiatives of companies like, Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Piramal Life Science and Glenmark. All such companies are gradually transforming their R&D focus from reverse-engineering to developing new chemical/molecular entity (NCE/NME) or novel drug delivery systems (NDDS).

Opportunities during the paradigm shift:

The low cost base, large English speaking technical talent pool and development of world class R&D facilities of the country will play the role of catalysts in this fast changing process and throw open many new vistas of opportunities for the industry to cash on.

At the same time, generic companies will play even more important global role than ever before. Many of them will no longer remain a local branded generic or generic player, they will open their wings to fly down to the important global destinations. Some others will collaborate with multi-national pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) in their contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) initiatives. For others, the domestic pharmaceutical market will still remain big and lucrative enough to grow their business.

However, those companies, which will not be able to effectively combat the ‘challenge of rapid changes’ will either perish or be gobbled-up by the big fishes in the consolidation process of the local and global pharmaceutical industry.

Some perspectives:

Though the domestic Indian pharmaceutical industry caters to around 70% of the requirements of pharmaceuticals of the nation, is highly fragmented. The industry manufactures 8% of the global production being the fourth largest producer of pharmaceuticals in terms of volume and employs over half a million people, mostly by around 300 large to medium sized companies in their local and global operations. Although around 6000 companies are engaged in manufacturing, many of them are third party manufacturers. Small manufacturers, who do not conform to ‘Schedule M’ requirements of the Drugs & Cosmetics Act will face or have already started facing trying times.

In terms of value, at present, India with around U.S 7.8 billion turnover, shares just around 2% of the global market with 14th in ranking. McKinsey forecasts that by 2015 India will record a turnover of U.S$ 20 billion and will improve its rank in the global pharma league table to 10th.

Key markets of the domestic Indian companies:

Although India still remains one of the major markets of the domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies, many of them have already established their business in the US, Europe, Latin America, Russian Federation, Africa, Middle East, South East Asia and even in Japan and Australia.

Contribution of India business of different Indian pharmaceutical companies to their global business varies based on their respective business strategies, from 63% of Zydus Cadila to around 16% of DRL, in 2007-08.

US market followed by Europe, is the main revenue earner for most of the large Indian companies. For example Ranbaxy generated around 27% and 20% of their global turnover from the US and Europe, respectively in 2008.

However, for some other companies like Wockhardt, Europe is a more important market than USA. Wockhardt generated around 54% of their global turnover from Europe, in 2007.

Global market entry strategy:

Different Indian companies adopted different market entry and expansion strategies in their globalization process. However, these have been mostly driven mergers and acquisitions.

Is the Indian pharmaceutical industry facing a dire need for an image makeover?

Despite significant contribution of the Indian pharmaceutical industry to provide relatively cheaper generic medicines to address a wide array of ailments of a vast majority of the population, the image of the industry to its stakeholders or even to public at large, is far from satisfactory.

There are some key perceptual reasons for the same. Some of these are as follows:

1. Pharmaceutical industry is making exorbitant profits at the cost of the basic healthcare needs of the common man.

This perception gets further strengthened when, for example, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) demands crores of rupees from many pharmaceutical companies for overcharging to the patients and notices are served even attaching their properties to recover these dues.

2. The quality of all medicines is not reliable.

This gets vindicated when, for example, the government for its ‘Jan Aushadhi’ program refuses to buy from certain groups of licensed pharmaceutical manufacturers, predominantly on product quality parameters.

3. Some questions, do the pharmaceutical manufacturers in India manufacture medicines following the highest quality norms?

To answer to this question some people argue; if so, why will Indian manufacturers need stringent manufacturing quality certification of the drug regulators of the developed markets to export medicines in the those countries? Why the manufacturing quality certification given to these exporters by the Indian drug regulator is not accepted in those countries?

Moreover, when medicines are imported into India, we accept the quality norms of the drug regulators of the developed countries.

4. Some sections of the media highlight the alleged malpractices by the Indian pharmaceutical companies to promote their mediciness to the medical profession. Such alleged high expenditure towards product promotion is considered by many as avoidable wasteful expenses, the benefit of which can easily be passed on to the patients.

Indian pharmaceutical industry is yet to develop a uniform code of marketing practices, which will be applicable to all the pharmaceutical companies across the board and implement the same effectively, to address such allegations.

Multinational Companies – friends or foes?

To partly salvage the situation, at the same time, one notices open attempts are being made to project the multinational drug companies as demons, the exploiters with a suspicious agenda of thwarting the growth of the domestic companies. In such a scenario, it is indeed perplexing, when one sees the names of the Indian companies at the top of the NPPA lists who allegedly overcharged maximum amount of money to the common man.

What the industry should do jointly:

Under such sad circumstances, the entire industry should come together, take a hard look on itself first and extend its helping hands in public private partnership (PPP) initiatives for the benefit of the civil society.

Such PPP may not necessarily be charitable. It could focus on developing a robust healthcare financing model with industry expertise, for implementation with the government involvement for all strata of society. Or, for example, the industry should come out with a plan, which the US Pharmaceutical trade association – PhRMA has recently proposed to the Obama administration voluntarily on their ‘Medicare’ program, for the senior citizens of America.

For image makeover the name of the game is actual ‘demonstration’ of the good intent and NOT ‘pontification’ of what others should do, highlighting the identified loopholes in the government machineries.

B. GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE:

In the midst of the global financial meltdown, beginning 2009, no one is still able to fathom what impact, if at all, will it leave on to the global pharmaceutical industry.

In the most populous country of the world – China, in April 2009, the government unfolded the blueprints of new healthcare reform measures, covering the entire nation.

Similarly, in the oldest democracy and the richest country of the world – United States of America, President Barak Obama administration expressed their resolve to address important healthcare related issues, as an integral part of the economic reform of the country.

In other developed markets of the world like Europe and Japan intense cost containment pressure is in turn creating significant pricing pressure on pharmaceuticals, triggering the demand of greater use of cheaper generic formulations.

Financial meltdown though eroded the market capitalization of most of the companies; the growth of the global pharmaceutical industry remained unabated till 2008, albeit at a slower pace though. Many markets of the world witnessed a faster generic switch, fuelling higher volume growth of the generic segment of the industry.

Some perspectives:

In 2008 the global pharmaceutical market size was of U.S$ 780 billion, which is expected to grow to U.S$ 937 billion in 2012 registering a 5 year CAGR of around 5.5%. Sales worth U.S$ 253 billion came from just 100 blockbuster drugs, contributing around one third of the global pharmaceutical market.

USA with a retail revenue turnover of U.S$ 206 is the largest market of the world, though currently showing a sharp decline in its growth rate. The growth rate of the US is expected to drop further along with the patent expiry of other blockbuster drugs.

Just three countries of Europe, U.K, France and Germany contributed to 50% of pharmaceutical sales of entire Europe.

Doctors’ are no longer the sole decision maker to prescribe a medicinal product:

Just like in the US, one witnesses a change in the role of the medical professionals as a key decision maker to prescribe medicines for the patients in Europe, as well. More and more, payors like health insurance companies, NHS are assuming that role.

A shift from small molecule pharmaceuticals to large molecule biotech products:

As small molecule pharmaceuticals are coming under intense pricing pressure, the focus of new drug launches is shifting towards more expensive large molecule biotech drugs with much higher margins of profit increasing the treatment cost further.

The brighter side:

Growing middle class population with higher disposable income together with increase spending of the government towards healthcare, in most of these countries, are making the pharmaceutical industry grow at a much faster pace in the emerging markets like, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia, China, India, Turkey, Mexico and Korea. However, the revenue and profit earned by the global companies from the developed markets are still far more than the emerging markets of the world.

Access to healthcare still remains a global issue:

Despite so much of progress of the global pharmaceutical industry, access to healthcare still remains an issue, besides others, even in some of the developed markets of the world. The waiting period of a patient just to get an appointment of the doctor is increasing fast. Even in the US about 47 million of US citizens still are not covered by insurance, besides many more of them who remain underinsured.

Global pharmaceutical industry is still considered a part of the problem:

Despite meeting the unmet needs of the patients through intensive research and development initiatives and various global access programs for the needy and the downtrodden, the civil society all over the world, including in the developed countries, still believes that the pharmaceutical industry is a part of the global healthcare problems, though relatively more in the developing and the least developed economies of the world. These perceptions are mainly due to high costs of patented drugs, high research expenditure for low value added drugs and seemingly unethical marketing practices of the industry across the board with varying degree.

Conclusion:

The pharmaceutical industry, the ultimate savior in the battle against disease, is now passing through a critical phase both locally and globally and both in terms of its image and capacity to deliver newer medicines ensuring their affordable access, the reason of which may vary from country to country.

Be that as it may, the industry has been making significant contribution to the humanity to meet the ever increasing unmet needs of the patients. However, expectations of the stakeholders are also growing and justifiably so. There is no time for the industry, in general, to ponder much now or rest on the past laurels. It is about time to walk the never ending extra mile, for the global patients’ sake.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Envisaging ‘five emerging key strategic changes’ in the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

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In India, the domestic pharmaceutical market has clocked a CAGR of around 13% to 14% since the last five years. Currently, the market is dominated by the drugs for mass ailments. However, such trend has already started showing a shift towards ailments related to the life-style of patients. This emerging trend is expected to fast accelerate in future.All such factors put together, driven by the following key drivers for growth backed by strong logistics support and hopefully improving healthcare delivery system are expected to contribute significantly towards faster growth of the Indian pharmaceutical industry, as we move on.Key growth drivers:

The growth drivers may primarily be divided into two categories:

- Local and
- Global

Local:

• Rapidly growing more prosperous middle class population of the country.

• High quality, cost effective, domestic generic drug manufacturers who will have increasing penetration in both local and emerging markets.

• Rising per capita income of the population and in-efficiency of the public healthcare system will encourage private healthcare systems of various types and scales to flourish.

• Expected emergence of a robust healthcare financing/insurance model for all strata of society.

• Fast growth in Medical Tourism.

• Evolving combo-business model of global pharmaceutical companies with both patented and generic drugs boosting local outsourcing opportunities.

Global:

Global pharmaceutical industry is going through a rapid process of transformation. Cost containment pressures due to various factors are further accelerating this process. Some of the critical effects of this transformation process like Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) will drive growth of many Indian domestic pharmaceutical players.

Expecting the need for ‘New Strategic Changes’ of radically different in nature:

The impact of many of these evolutionary changes is being felt in India already. However, some more radically different types of changes, which the industry has not experienced, as yet, are expected to be felt as the country moves on to satisfy the desired healthcare needs of its population while fully encashing the future growth opportunities of the Indian pharmaceutical industry.

Five ‘New Strategic Changes’ envisaged:

Five new key strategic changes, in my view, will be as follows:

1. As the country will move towards an integrated and robust healthcare financing system:

• Doctors will no longer remain the sole decision makers for the drugs that they will prescribe to the patients and the way they will treat the common diseases. Healthcare providers/ medical insurance companies will start playing a key role in these areas by providing to the doctors well thought out treatment guidelines.

• For a significant proportion of the products that the pharmaceutical companies will sell, tough price negotiation with the healthcare providers/ medical insurance companies will be inevitable.

• Health Technology Assessment (HTA) or outcome based pricing will play an important role in pricing a healthcare product.

2. An integrated approach towards disease prevention will emerge as equally important as treatment of diseases.

3. A shift from just product marketing to marketing of a bundle of value added comprehensive disease management processes along with the product, will be the order of the day

4. Patents will be granted on truly innovative medicines and incremental innovation to be protected within the patent life of the original product only or separately for a much lesser period.

5. Over the counter medicines, especially originated from natural products for common and less serious illness, will curve out a larger share as the appropriate regulations will be put in place.

Conclusion:

With the above changes in the ball game of the Indian pharmaceutical industry, it may not be easy for the local players to adapt to such changes sooner and compete with the global players on equal footing. Those Indian Pharmaceutical companies who are already global players on their own rights, will be well versed with the nuances of this new game, within the country. These domestic companies, in my view, will offer a tough competition to the global players, especially, in the generic space.

However, so far as other domestic players are concerned, the new environment could prove to be a real tough time for them, further accelerating the process of consolidation within the Indian pharmaceutical industry. So the ‘writing on the wall’ appears to be ‘prepare now’ or ‘perish’.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

An image makeover is in progress in the global pharmaceutical industry.

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At the beginning of 2009, Andrew Witty, the young head honcho of Glaxo SmithKline (GSK) initiated a one CEO tirade to recognize the global poor as a stakeholder of the global pharmaceutical industry. The industry that has been much maligned over a period of time, despite its yeoman contribution to the mankind, for aiming its drug discovery and delivery more often at the rich patients and not at the sick poor of mostly the developing and underdeveloped nations of the world.
Walking the talk:
Witty perhaps wondered and questioned why the poor population must share disproportionately the disease burden of the world. As the saying goes, ‘the proof of the pudding is in the eating’. Witty walked the talk and announced:

1. GSK medicines will be available in the least developed countries (LDC) of the world at 25% of their price in the United Kingdom (U.K).

2. 20% of profits from these medicines will be re-invested for various projects in those countries.

3. GSK will put 800 potential drug patents in a ‘patent pool’ to find cures of neglected, mainly, tropical diseases.

4. Scientists will be able to share the Research Center of GSK located at Tres Cantos in Spain for this purpose.

Will other global pharmaceutical players join in?

Andrew Witty, it appears, nurtures a very keen and very real desire to change the public image of the global pharmaceutical industry through transformation of its decade long culture and setting some of these path breaking examples, which only bravehearts can follow. However, many still feel, “Improving the greedy and uncaring image of the pharmaceutical industry is indeed a tough call.”

It has been reported in the media, during his announcement for the ‘patent pool’, the GSK CEO, in fact threw a challenge to other global pharmaceutical players to join him. What resulted thereafter was a bit of an anti-climax though with a very lukewarm response from others and Andrew with a sense of perhaps despair commented, “It has caught them a bit by surprise because we didn’t go around talking to people at the time, and they’ve had to come up this curve from zero.”

The Guardian in a very recent article on Andrew Witty, quoted him in the same context of extending access to modern medicines to the poor of LDCs, “he’s encouraging Indian companies to knock off its on-patent meds for sale in poor countries, as long as they make quality products and asks GSK for a license, which it will give royalty-free.”

In the same article, The Gurdian wrote, “He’s calling on every foreign company that makes profits in Uganda to cut its prices there”. “I don’t just mean drug companies,” Witty told the newspaper -”everybody.”

It does not cost much:

The GSK CEO admits that he is not losing much on his price cuts in the least developed countries. Uganda market of GSK is very small with turnover of about £9 million a year. The total profit from the LDCs is less than £5 million. “Those sorts of sums are like the 1p coins people don’t trouble to pick up off the pavement for a company with revenue of £24bn and a stock market valuation of £60bn,” he commented.

Conclusion:

Despite not too many encouraging responses being forthcoming from others, it is indeed admirable that a top global pharma company head honcho is setting such tough goals for himself in particular and the industry in general. The question that flows from here, even reading all these:

Are you kidding Andrew Witty? Do you really mean all these? Or it is another smart global pharma CEO hankering for just cheap publicity?

Seeing you Andrew Witty, though long ago, in flesh and blood, my heart says, you are possibly not made of that stuff to befool the world on this pressing issue of the world, being at your wit’s end.

Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Europe: now emerging as a more preferred market for the domestic Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

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Since almost last 30 years the Pharmaceutical Industry of India has been a net foreign exchange earner. Deutche Bank Researchindicates that over the last ten years the export surplus has widened from EUR 370 million to EUR 2 billion.Around 80% of these pharmaceuticals manufactured in India are sold to the US and Europedriven by higher purchasing power of the people in those countries and also due to recent regulatory changes towards greater cost containment initiatives by the respective governments.
Europe – a preferred destination for Indian Pharmaceutical companies:

In the quagmire of global recession, prompted by increasing pricing pressure with consequent pressure on the bottom-line, many Indian pharmaceutical companies have started increasing their focus on Europe. The European generics market is now growing faster than overcrowded US generics market.

Top domestic Indian pharmaceutical Companies like Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Glenmark, Wockhardt and Aurobindo whose performance is highly dependent on their revenues from the US and Europe perhaps will need to have a sharper look at both western and eastern Europe.

It has been reported that because of higher volume penetration of over 55% of generics pharmaceuticals in Europe, which is significantly higher than US, Europe offers an attractive and better growth opportunities to the Indian pharmaceutical companies in the medium to longer term. Companies like Ranbaxy, Wockhardt and Aurobindo have already reported to have started showing higher revenue growth in Europe than USA.

Major merger and Acquisition (M&A) initiatives of the Indian pharmaceutical companies in Europe augur well towards this direction. Ranbaxy has already acquired companies in France, Belgium, Romania and Zydus Cadila in France. DRL purchased Betapharm in Germany.

Inorganic growth will demand a more cautious approach:

However, the path of M&A by Indian pharmaceutical companies should be treaded with more caution. The case in point is Wockhardt, which grew with a scorching pace of over 30% on an average for several years in the recent past driven by its inorganic growth strategy. In 2006-07 Wockhardt acquired two companies in Europe, one in Ireland and the other in France. Unfortunately, the company could not manage its rapid growth through such M&A as efficiently for long and got entangled in a debt trap of around Rs. 34,000 crore in that process.

Converting problems into opportunities:

Global financial meltdown throws open an opportunity for the Indian pharmaceutical companies to acquire the distressed specialty pharmaceutical companies at a very competitive price in Europe. Many small pharmaceutical companies in Europe are now looking to sell their facilities because of difficulty in maintaining their business arising out of higher operating costs.

In such a scenario after acquiring a company in those countries, the Indian acquirer will have an opportunity to transfer the manufacturing operations to India, where the costs are much lower, keeping just the marketing operations there.

A report from The Economic Times (ET) indicates that Pharmaceutical majors like Zydus Cadilla are looking for acquisition in Spain and Italy and Glenmark in the Eastern Europe. Kemwell of Bangalore has recently acquired the manufacturing plant of Pfizer located in Sweden and has expressed intention to shift their manufacturing operations to India to concentrate only on marketing with the acquired local infrastructure.

Just at the same time and for the same reasons many global pharmaceutical companies plan to outsource their manufacturing requirements from India and China retaining the R&D and marketing operations with them.

Increasing attention on Eastern Europe:

According to PMR, the Polish Market Research company, countries like Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey, Russia and Romania are quite attractive for pharmaceuticals business in the Eastern Europe.

In that part of the world, Russia, Romania and Ukraine have been dominating in terms of sustained high growth since last five years. Acquisition of a local company will provide the best option for quick entry into these markets, recommends PMR.

Conclusion:

Global financial meltdown has thrown open many doors of opportunities for rapid entry into both eastern and western European markets by the Indian pharmaceutical companies for better future growth potential. I am sure the domestic pharmaceutical companies will carefully evaluate these opportunities to take appropriate action to catapult themselves to a higher business growth trajectory in the years to come by.

Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Changing recipe for growth in the new paradigm of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry… for its effective implementation there appears to be more questions than answers:

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India, the world’s largest democracy with its economy on a sustained growth track is creating an overall environment for high performance for all key sectors, including pharmaceuticals. In terms of GDP growth India is second only to China and is expected to become the fifth largest economy by 2017.
Dawn of a New Era:
Over a period of time, India has emerged as a fast growing pharmaceutical industry through various policy measures taken by the government of India (GoI). Such policy measures have been very supportive to the domestic companies. The absence of product patents from 1970 to 2005 enabled the Indian pharmaceutical companies to become world’s leading producers of ‘copycat’ versions of patented drugs. Lower cost base and expertise in ‘reverse engineering’ immensely helped the domestic industry to sustain its competitive edge during this period.

New product patent regime in 2005 heralded the dawn of a new era triggering a transformation of the industry. Return of large global companies like, MSD, Roche, Eli Lilly and entry of other company’s like Biogen, Genzyme, Allergan, Astellas, Eisai etc together with the emergence of many Indian companies to become research-based multinationals, are making this transformation more interesting.

Generic pharmaceuticals will continue to play a significant role:

Even with all these changes, generic pharmaceutical products will continue to play a significant role towards the growth of the industry. While being major global generic players, some large Indian companies like Dr. Reddy’s laboratories (DRL), Glenmark, Ranbaxy, Piramal Healthcare etc have commenced their journey on the long road of product discovery research with reasonable amount of initial success. There are now several new drug development programs by many of these Indian pharmaceutical companies, which will hopefully result in global product launches in not too distant future. India’s emphasis on research and development and new drug discovery is indeed growing since the country signed WTO agreement for product patent in 1995.

An industry with high success quotient:

Currently India is the world’s fourth largest producer of pharmaceuticals by volume and directly employs about 5 lakh people. The market is crowded with 20,000 pharmaceutical firms, 60,000 distributors and 700,000-800,000 retailers. Although there are around 5,600 licensed generics players, in reality around 3,000 of them are engaged in pharmaceutical production. The domestic pharmaceutical companies now cater to about 70% of the country’s requirements for medicines. The top 10 companies control about 30% and 250 companies control around 70% of the market.

Key determinants of success:

Following in my view are the key determinants, which will decide the extent of success of the Indian pharmaceutical industry as a whole:

• Healthcare delivery and infrastructure

• Access and affordability of modern medicines

• IPR environment

• Domestic R&D success

• Speed of regulatory reform process

• Disease trends and prescription patterns

• Public and private healthcare spending

• Penetration of health insurance

Domestic companies adopting different business model:

In this changing scenario different domestic companies are adopting different business models, as follows:

1. Penetration to the regulated generics markets:

- With partnership agreements with established generic companies

- Setting up own sales and marketing organisations both greenfield and also through acquisitions

- With acquisition of manufacturing facilities

2. Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS):

Ballooning costs for research and development and low productivity have prompted the research-based global pharmaceutical companies to outsource part of their research and manufacturing activities to lower-cost, developing nations like, India and China.

India is gradually emerging as a competitive hub for CRAMS. The country is playing a significant role in manufacturing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and intermediates for the global pharmaceutical industry. We have also seen the global pharmaceutical companies signing-up long-term outsourcing contracts with the Indian manufacturing and contract research organizations.

Generic pharmaceuticals produced in India are increasingly being accepted all over the world, excepting some recent US-FDA related issues. Many Indian companies like Piramal Healthcare, Aurobindo, DRL etc are taking up global generic manufacturing contracts for the global players like, Allergan, Pfizer and GSK, in addition to marketing generic pharmaceuticals themselves. Outsourcing of such business processes to India has undoubtedly been proved to be not only effective in saving costs, but also in saving valuable developmental time for the Multinational companies (MNCs).

Besides all these, India is emerging as the preferred destination for outsourcing clinical trials because of its both high quality and lower cost facilities of global standards.

3. Operating in domestic generic market

4. Investing more in R&D for discovery of NCE/NME

Key growth drivers:

A recent study jointly undertaken by the Organization of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI) and Yes Bank identified following key growth drivers for the domestic pharmaceutical Industry:

• Consolidation leading to better pricing

• Population growth, changing demographics and urbanization

• Increasing per capita income leading to higher penetration

• Access to quality healthcare through health insurance schemes

• Robust product patent regime, although generics will continue to grow

The questions to ponder:

1. Whether domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies will make large-scale investments in R&D to compete effectively with the global companies across the world?

2. Whether global pharmaceutical companies will be successful in marketing drugs patented in India?

3. Whether the government, physicians and patients keep supporting the generics?

4. How will the new Drug Policy be?

5. How will the government go about improving access to modern medicines from the current level of 35% to 100% of the Indian population?

Conclusion:

It is not quite easy to gauge the rate of progress of the Indian pharmaceutical industry in the new paradigm, at this stage. One of the key growth drivers of the domestic pharmaceutical industry has been the launch of a slew of new products of various types. The pipe line of such products has already started drying up in a comparative yardstick, in post product patent regime. Consequently, as already launched such new products reach the maturity stage from the growth phase of their ‘product life cycle’, a possible slowdown in the rate of growth of the respective companies in the domestic market is well anticipated.

There are other growth drivers though, for the industry, but how will these drivers actually drive the industry growth will, to a large extent, depend on proper answers to the above five questions. Thus, in the new paradigm though the growth recipe is ready, in its effective implementation there are more questions than answers.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Union Budget 2009-10: there is something to cheer for the Pharmaceutical Industry

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Union Budget 2009-10 has reflected the intention of the new UPA Government to sharpen its focus on healthcare through various budgetary/fiscal measures and support. Although general expectations were more for a significant increase in the healthcare expenses as a % of GDP, the union budget proposals have satisfactorily addressed the key issues in the following five key areas of healthcare, to the extent possible by the Government at this stage:A. Infrastructure buildingB. Improving access to medicines

C. Reduction in transaction costs of Medicines

D. Incentivising R&D

E. Reduction in tax burden

A. Infrastructure building:

The Finance Minister has rightly focused on improvement of healthcare infrastructure of the country by increasing allocation under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) by Rs.2,057 crore over interim budget 2009-10 of Rs.12,070 crore.

B. Improving access to medicines:

The budget proposal of covering all BPL families under Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) with an increase in allocation by 40% is expected to help improving healthcare access. This is an increase over previous allocation of Rs. 350 crore.

C. Reduction in transaction costs of Medicines:

Reduction of Customs Duty for drugs used for cardiovascular diseases, influenza vaccine, breast cancer, hepatitis B, rheumatic arthritis and also for bulk drugs used for the manufacture of such drugs from 10% to 5% and total exemption of Excise and Countervailing Duty for these drugs will help in reduction of transaction costs of these medicines.

The drugs in question are Abatacept, Daptomycin, Entacevir, Fondaparinux Sodium, Influenza Vaccine, Ixabepilone, Lapatinib, Pegaptanib Sodium injection, Suntunib Malate, Tocilizumab.

Basic Custom duty on specified heart devices, namely Artificial Heart (left ventricular assist device) and Patent Ductus Arteriosus(‘PDA’)/Atrial Septal Occlusion device has also been reduced from 7.5% to 5%. Drugs and Pharmaceutical products of Chapter 30 and medical equipment continue to attract central excise duty of 4%.

However, the Industry expected that Government will take similar action for all life-saving drugs.

D. Incentivising R&D:

Extension of scope of current weighted deduction of 150% on expenditure incurred on in-house R&D to all manufacturing businesses except for a small negative list, is a welcome step.

E. Reduction in tax burden:

Following tax proposals of the Finance Minister will benefit the pharmaceutical Industry:

• Abolition of Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT)

• Extension of tax holidays for exporters upto 2011

• Tax incentives for the business of setting up and operating “Cold Chain” which is an integral part in the logistics for vaccines and many biotech products.

The Economic Survey 2008-09 highlights that the economy of the country has grown by 6.67% despite global economy meltdown. It indicates a sign of revival in domestic investment and the return of a climate of optimism. For the Pharmaceutical Industry, the Economic Survey comments as follows:

“The drugs price control should be limited to essential drugs in which there are less than 5 producers. All others should have been decontrolled”.

This issue I hope will be addressed in subsequent policy announcements by the Government.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Managing expectations of the emerging markets of the world, proactively, will differentiate winners from the rest, in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry.

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Change or Perish:In Mid 2007, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) recommended to the research-based global pharmaceutical companies that for sustainable business performance they should move a part of their expenditure from marketing to research. They also recommended that the drug prices should be related to incremental efficacy that the products would provide. That global pharmaceutical business model is “economically unsustainable and operationally incapable of acting quickly enough to produce the types of innovative treatments demanded by global markets” as a challenge of change, was forecasted in 2007 by PwC in their ‘Pharma 2020: The vision’, report.Fast evolving scenario:

The global pharmaceutical industry scenario is fast evolving. More drugs are going off patent than what the innovator companies can replace with the new products. The research is undoubtedly failing to deliver.

At the same time, the business growth in the developed markets of the world has been declining over a period of time. The growth in the top two pharmaceutical markets of the world viz, USA and Japan has gone negative. IMS predicted in their recent ‘CEO Conclave’ in Mumbai that negative trends in these markets will continue even beyond 2013.

In the same conclave IMS predicted that ‘Pharmerging’ markets and Venezuela will drive the growth of the global pharmaceutical industry in the next five year period. Within ‘Pharmerging’ markets, China is expected to record highest CAGR growth of over 25%, followed by India and Turkey around 12-14% each. With such a scorching pace of growth China is expected to become third largest pharmaceutical market in the world in 2013 with India holding its 2008 ranking of no. 13. Venezuela is expected to register highest CAGR growth of around 40% during this period placing itself as the eleventh largest pharmaceutical market of the world, comfortably overtaking India.

Emerging markets will drive global growth:

IMS health reported that last year the global pharmaceutical market recorded a turnover of US$712 billion, which is an increase of US$178 billion over last five years. However, the growth rate has come down to 6.4% compared to 11.8% in 2001. Emerging markets like India, China, Russia, Turkey and South Korea have recorded a growth of 13%, 25.7%, 20.2%, 17.2% and 10.7%, respectively against just 3.8% growth of the US market.

Making up sales revenue of world’s top 10 products:

World’s 10 top selling prescription drugs, as reported by IMS, which will be difficult to replace in terms of single-product value turnover after they go off patent, are as follows:

- Lipitor, US$13.5 billion (Pfizer)

- Plavix, US$7.3 billion (Sanofi-Aventis)

- Nexium, US$7.2 billion (AstraZeneca)

- Seretide/Advair, US$7.1 billion (GlaxoSmithKline)

- Enbrel, US$5.3 billion (Amgen and Wyeth)

- Zyprexa, US$5 billion (Eli Lilly)

- Risperdal, US$4.9 billion (Johnson & Johnson)

- Seroquel, US$4.6 billion (AstraZeneca)

- Singulair, US$4.5 billion (Merck)

- Aranesp, US$4.4 billion (Amgen)

Focus on the emerging markets and other measures are expected to more than offset the loss of revenue and profit for these products.

Key business issues in the emerging markets:

Governments of many of these emerging markets expect some local benefits out of the evolving growth opportunities of the global pharmaceutical companies from their respective countries. Various reports indicate that there will be mainly the following two key issues in these markets:

• Local manufacturing of products
• Pricing

Local manufacturing:

Out of these emerging markets, Indonesia has clearly spelt out its intention by specifying that the pharmaceutical companies marketing their products in Indonesia will need to establish local manufacturing facilities. The new rule is directed towards local job creation.

The Health Minister of Indonesia has said, “If they want to get licenses (to sell their products) they have to invest here also, not just take advantage of the Indonesian market.” The Minister further added, “they can’t just operate like a retailer here, with an office that’s three meters by three, and make billions of rupiah. That’s not fair.” It has been reported that India and China may also come out with similar requirements for their respective countries.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce has registered a strong protest in this matter with the President of Indonesia and has urged a reversal of this decision. However, the country appears to have taken a firm stand in this matter. This is evident when in response to the report that some global pharmaceutical companies have threatened withdrawal of their business from Indonesia because of this reason, the Health Minister retorted, “If they want to go away, go ahead.”

Pricing:

Anticipating such moves in the emerging markets, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has already started reducing the prices of its products in the emerging markets.

The visionary CEO of GSK, Andrew witty strongly believes that such price reduction will enable more patients in the emerging markets to afford GSK products. Consequently the increased sales volume will not only be able to offset the price loss but will also create a substantial goodwill for the company in these markets.

Quoting Andrew Witty the ‘Wall Street Journal’ (WSJ) reported that in Philippines, GSK has reduced the price of 28 products by 30% to 50%. In other emerging markets in Asia including India, Malaysia and Thailand the company has reduced the prices of Cervarix, its cervical cancer vaccine, substantially.

Price reductions made by GSK in Philippines in March have started paying rich dividends to the company with 15% to 40% increase in sales revenue.

Conclusion:

To achieve the growth objectives in the emerging markets of the world, global pharmaceutical companies will need to find out a win-win solution. Andrew Witty of GSK has set examples in this area with various path breaking initiatives. Pricing and local manufacturing of products, in that order, are expected to be the key issues in the business model for emerging markets of the global pharmaceutical companies. Witty has responded to such expectations proactively and in an exemplary way. His vision is widely expected to be emulated by many others, as we move on, in the interest of all stakeholders.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.