Covid 2.0 Rampages India As Top Echelon Policy Makers Ignore Science

Posted on April 26, 2021 by Tapan Ray

‘India is in the endgame of COVID,’ announced the union health minister of India, just in the last month – March 08, 2021. Although, it was then clearly known to medical fraternity that today’s Covid vaccines won’t be magic bullets against rapidly mutating new Coronavirus. Interestingly, a scientific-data based MIT study, published last year – on July 01, 2020 predicted that India might record the highest ever in the world – 287,000 new Coronavirus cases per day, by February 2021. At that juncture also Covid vaccines were expected to be available in India before that predicted time frame. The MIT study warning received a wide coverage even in India - by almost all news dailies, on that very month of the last year. The national Covid management team did not seem to have taken it seriously, along with others. These include, besides the top echelon of governance – a vast majority of Indians – across the social, political, religious and economic strata.

The fallout of such callousness – both at the individual Covid-appropriate behavior level, as well as Covid governance level, have been more disastrous than what was forecasted even in the above MIT study. The ferocity and scale of the second Covid-19 wave in India did not just overwhelm the nation, but raised grave concern across the world too. On April 22, 2021, India recorded the world’s biggest ever single-day rise with 314,835 new cases of Covid-19, causing death to 2,104 people. The very next day, this number increased to 332,730 new cases with 2263 deaths.

But, the peak of the Covid second wave hasn’t come, just yet. According to a mathematical model developed by a team of scientists from the IIT Kanpur and reported by news media on April 22, 2021, the number of active covid-19 cases in India during the second wave is expected to peak in May. The daily infection count is expected to exceed 350,000 cases. In this article, I shall dwell on three specific areas – acknowledging that the current scenario is the outcome of national misjudgment, if not a humongous misgovernance to prepare India for Covid 2.0:

Current struggle of India’s fragile and long-ignored health care infrastructure.
Need to neutralize some general misgivings on Covid vaccines and associated dilemmas.
Who is equipped to save people, if no external remedial measures remain unavailable for some more time?

India’s fragile and long-ignored health infrastructure can’t take anymore:

Amid this calamity, India has run short of oxygen, hospital beds, important Covid medicines, including Remdesivir. Curiously, reports keep coming incessantly confirm and reconfirm: ‘Ever since the second wave of the pandemic started, the healthcare systems in India have been teetering on the brink, with many hospitals unable to handle the relentless inflow of patients whilst also running short of beds, oxygen cylinders and other essentials.’

Doctors and many health care workers are overwhelmed by the massive scale of the human tragedy and in tears, as they articulate: ‘Many lives could have been saved had there been enough beds, oxygen supplies, ventilators and other resources – if the healthcare system had been better prepared for the second wave.’

The Supreme Court intervened, noting the ‘grim situation’ in the country:

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court of India, reportedly, ‘Suo motu’ (on its own) took note of the grim situation in the country and the havoc caused due to shortage of Oxygen cylinders in hospitals. Consequently, on April 22, 2021, the top court said, ‘it expected the Centre to come out with a “national plan” on the supply of oxygen and essential drugs for treatment of infected patients and method and manner of vaccination against the disease.’ The Delhi High Court also observed, “We all know that this country is being run by God,” coming down heavily on the Centre over the Covid-19 management.

Some Covid vaccine related misgivings and dilemmas:

Many people are raising questions of the efficacy of two currently available Covid vaccines in India – Covishield and Covaxin, especially against our probably ‘desi’ double mutant variety of Covid-19. The trepidation increased manifold when India’s former Prime Minister – Dr. Manmohan Singh got Covid infected after taking two doses of Covaxin. Or, reports, such as: ‘Sri Lanka reports six cases of blood clots in AstraZeneca vaccine recipients, 3 dead.’ Incidentally, these vaccines were made in India. Some may not possibly know that both the issues have been deliberated by the Indian scientists, who haven’t expressed any concern, as yet. This has to be shared with all by all concerned, soon. Let me explore some of these related issues, as follows:

Re-infection after taking Covid vaccines:

Regarding re-infection rate after taking two doses of Covid vaccines, the scientists have now released data establishing that only a very small fraction of those vaccinated with either Covaxin or Covishield, have tested positive. In any case, instances of a few “breakthrough” infections do not undermine the efficacy of the vaccines, they added.

The ICMR has also clarified, “These vaccines definitely protect against disease. However, the immune response begins to develop usually two weeks after every dose and there are variations within individuals, too. Even after the first dose, if exposure to the virus happens, one can test positive.”

Efficacy of Covishield and Covaxin against double mutant strains:

Notably, both – the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) have announced last week that Covishield and Covaxin protect patients even from the ‘double mutant’, B.1.617, variety of Covid-19. Scientists believe that the “double mutant” is responsible for the sudden spike in the number of cases in Maharashtra and other parts of the country. They had earlier feared that this “double mutant” or B.1.617, may escape the immune system and thus vaccines may not offer protection from this strain of the novel coronavirus.

Reported risk of blood clotting with Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine:

No cases of blood clotting have come to light in India. However, a government panel of experts is,reportedly, investigating for any domestic cases of blood clotting, even mild ones, as a side effect of the two COVID-19 vaccines being administered in India. According to India’s leading virologist Gagandeep Kang, “blood clots reportedly caused as a result of Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine amount to a very small risk.”

As reported on April 24, 2021, the United States has also decided to immediately resume the use of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine, ending a 10-day pause to investigate its link to extremely rare but potentially deadly blood clots. These details, I reckon, need also to be shared with all people, soon, in order to neutralize any doubt on administering Covid vaccines.

Covid vaccine availability and pricing:

Recent media reports highlight, at least six states of India – Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha and Telangana – are facing Covid vaccine shortage, as Covid 2.0 overwhelms India. Most of these states have already apprised the Centre of the situation, as the Supreme Court of India also seeks the details from the center about its current status.

As on April 22, 2021, India has administered over 135 million vaccine doses, where each individual will require two doses. Whereas, as published in Bloomberg on April 23, 2021, ‘1 billion Covid-19 vaccines have been administered around the world.’ The good news is, effective May 01, 2021, everyone above the age of 18 years will be eligible to get vaccinated. The Central Government will also lift its singular control on supply and delivery of Covid-19 vaccines in a bid to tackle the massive rise of cases that have crippled the country’s health infrastructure.

That said, the key question that follows – would Covid vaccine manufacturers be able to meet this increasing demand in India, when there already exists more demand than its supply? According to Niti Aayog Covid-19: Vaccine availability will improve by July 2021. The two major vaccine manufacturers in India are also indicating broadly similar time frame.

Meanwhile, amid a deadly second wave of Covid infections, a third Coronavirus vaccine - Russia’s Sputnik V, has been approved for emergency use in India. Incidentally, Sputnik V’s approval came not before India overtook Brazil to become the country with the second-highest number of cases globally. According to its local distributor – Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, India will start receiving Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine by end May.

Be that as it may, it is still unclear whether enough Covid vaccine doses will be available right from May 1, 2021, to start inoculating all Indians above 18 years of age, across the length and breadth of the country. Besides, SSI’s decision to fix the rate of Covishield vaccine for private hospitals and state governments, has attracted sharp criticism from the Opposition, who argued that there was no logic in charging the state governments a higher price, when the Centre is getting the same vaccine at Rs 150 per dose.

This question surfaces, especially when SII Chief himself acknowledged that they are making profit even with Rs.150/per dose price as the pandemic ravages the nation. A news item of April 24, 2021 also underscores ‘Serum Institute’s Rs.600/dose for Covishield in private hospitals is its highest rate in the world.’ Nonetheless, price sensitivity to Covid vaccines during the pandemic is not specific to India.

Shareholders of Pfizer, J&J, reportedly, are also pushing for detailed COVID-19 pricing strategies of the respective companies, at their annual meetings. Curiously, at the same, yet another report highlights: ‘With the competition struggling, Pfizer’s COVID vaccine sales could hit $24B this year.’ Amazing!

India utterly overwhelmed, angry outbursts of concern beyond its shores:

Witnessing the nature of rampage caused by Covid 2.0 in India, global press blames the Indian top policy makers for utter failure to anticipate and tackle the devastating second wave. For example, The Guardian of the UK flashed a headline on April 21, 2021 – ‘The system has collapsed’: India’s descent into Covid hell.’ It further elaborated: ‘Many falsely believed that the country had defeated Covid. Now hospitals are running out of oxygen and bodies are stacking up in morgues.’ The Times, UK was harsher. It reported, ‘Modi flounders in India’s gigantic second wave.’ It further added: ‘Record levels of infection have put huge strain on the health service and highlighted the perils of complacency in the nationalist government.’

The New York Times reported on April 23, 2021: ‘India’s Health System Cracks Under the Strain as Coronavirus Cases Surge.’ The report also cited examples of ‘recent political rallies held by Mr. Modi that have drawn thousands, as well as the government’s decision to allow an enormous Hindu festival to continue despite signs that it has become a super spreader event.’

Conclusion:

Keeping aside the responsibility, or rather lack of it, of the National Covid governance team, individual Indians – like you and me – can’t in any way shy away from our own responsibility of compliance to Covid appropriate behavior, religiously. We are equally responsible, at least, for our own lives and fate. Even today, many of those who are wearing a face mask, are wearing in the chin – keeping the nose exposed – forget about double masking! Moreover, how many of us were or are eligible for Covid vaccination till date, but did not or could not take?

Curiously, Covid 2.0 is no longer striking mostly the poor urban population, living in slums or hutments, or the migrant laborer. Nor it is attacking mainly the senior citizens or people with co-morbidities. More young people, including children are getting infected in Covid 2.0. In Covid 2.0 – over 90 per cent of Covid new cases concentrate in in high rise and other buildings in major cities, like Mumbai. While urban slums account for just 10 per cent. On April 24, 2021, Bloomberg also reported, ‘India’s Urban Affluent Hit By New Virus Wave After Dodging First.’

Terming Covid 2.0 as concerning and scaring‘, Tata Sons Chairman also said, ‘India needs to get as many different Covid-19 vaccine licenses as possible. And replicate multiple factories on a war footing to ramp up production in order to meet the requirements as the country reels under the devastating second wave of the pandemic.’ It’s incredible, how a small country in the Indian subcontinent – Bhutan with limited resources, got its vaccination plan right and carried out, reportedly, the world’s fastest immunization drive.

Coming back to the last year’s above MIT study forecast for 2021 Covid situation in India. It goes without saying that this one, among several others, was based on credible data. It also brought to the fore the scientific reasons of consequences for not following the norms of Covid appropriate behavior. Looking back and coming back to real life scenario of date, one thing becomes crystal clear. When science is ignored, both at the highest echelon of national governance where the buck stops – or at the individual, social, religious or political level – it is virtually inevitable that a disaster would strike. And in most cases, it will strike hard – very hard. Much beyond what a human can withstand to survive. We have choice for survival – even in today’s frightening scenario. Let’s individually and collectively behave, as the science demands. Life and livelihood are important – for all of us.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

India’s Preparedness Against Biological Threats

Posted on February 24, 2020 by Tapan Ray

Recent Coronavirus outbreak poses a ‘very grave threat to the rest of the world’ – the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), reportedly said on February 11, 2020. Earlier, on January 28, 2020, it had changed the viruses’ risk-status from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’. As it creates a havoc in China, Coronavirus has recorded a limited spread in India, besides France, Canada, US, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka. This article will explore how prepared is India to tackle any similar biological threat to protect its citizens from a possible health catastrophe.

Let me begin by assessing pros and cons of the current initiatives of the Indian Government, both at the Center, as well as, in the States, in this regard.

The pros and cons:

Some of the ‘pros’, that the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare promptly initiated are as follows:

Updated Travel advisory for travelers visiting China.
Discharge policy for suspected or confirmed novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases.
Guidelines on Clinical management of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) in suspect/confirmed 2019-nCoV cases.
Guidance on surveillance for human infection with 2019-nCoV.
Guidelines for ‘Infection Prevention and Control in Healthcare Facilities’.
Guidance for sample collection, packaging and transportation for 2019-nCov.

The above steps are as commendable as some other prompt initiatives of the Ministry to stop Coronavirus from entering the country, such as leveraging technology for both thermal and symptomatic screening, especially at the high-risk airports.

However, according to global experts – India, along with several other countries are still ill prepared to face biological threats of a magnitude that we are now witnessing in China. On the other hand, according to February 12, 2020 publication of The World Economic Forum, there about a dozen of countries in the world who are best prepared for meeting similar health emergencies.

Similar calamity was predicted two years back by W.H.O:

Interestingly, a similar situation was predicted by none other than Tedros Adhanom, Director General of the World Health Organization and was reported on February 15, 2018. He then said, “We have a problem. A serious one. At any moment, a life-threatening global pandemic could spring up and wipe out a significant amount of human life on this planet. The death toll would be catastrophic. One disease could see as many as 100 million dead.”

“This is not some future nightmare scenario,” he added. “This is what happened exactly 100 years ago during the Spanish flu epidemic.” Again: “A devastating epidemic could start in any country at any time and kill millions of people because we are still not prepared. The world remains vulnerable.”Explaining the reason for the same, the Director General pinpointed: “The threat of a global pandemic comes from our apathy, from our staunch refusal to act to save ourselves — a refusal that finds its heart in our indifference and our greed.”

Now, when the world is grappling with the menace of Coronavirus – may not be at the predicted global scale yet, those comments haunt us again. It flags each country’s preparedness to deal with such pandemic, as and when it strikes, unannounced.

‘Countries best prepared for health emergencies’ – and India:

The February 12, 2020 publication of The World Economic Forum, as indicated above, highlights several important realities of this subject. Let me quote below just two of these, which, I reckon, are the most profound:

National health security is fundamentally weak around the world, and none is fully prepared to handle such an outbreak.
Global biological risks are in many cases growing faster than governments and science can keep up.

Acknowledging these facts, based on the Global Health Security Index, the most prepared ones for epidemics or pandemics of all types were listed among 195 countries surveyed. Measured on a scale from 0-100, the US ranks as the “most prepared” nation (scoring 83.5). Next comes UK (77.9), the Netherlands (75.6), Australia (75.5) and Canada (75.3) featuring behind it.

Thailand and South Korea are the only countries outside of the West that rank in this category. China, the most populated country in the world – which is also at the center of the Coronavirus outbreak – is in 51st place, scoring 48.2. And, India, the second most populated country ranks 57 with a score of 46.5. The obvious question that comes up: Why India ranks so low in the Global Health Security Index, among 195 countries?

Knowing the risk – not enough, building capability is a must:

The above details will give a sense of risk exposure to pandemic or epidemic, like Coronavirus, for a country. As the experts point out, just knowing the level of risk exposures, is far from enough. Each Government has a fundamental duty to build capabilities for protecting its people from the disastrous consequences of any possible biological threat, as and when it strikes. This will call for taking quantifiable financial and other measures to fill the existing gaps in the epidemic and pandemic preparedness, as captured in many studies.

India’s budgetary allocation for health remains frugal:

It gets reflected even in the Union Budget 2020-21for the health care sector. Although, the total allocation for the sector was about 10 percent higher from the year ago. The increase seems negligible, considering consumer price index inflation was 7.5 percent in December 2019, as analyzed by the publication Down to Earth on February 02, 2020.

The report said, over 50 percent of the increase will go into offsetting inflation and we don’t seem to be anywhere near achieving the target of allocating 2.5 percent GDP to health by 2025, as envisaged by even the current government.

More relevant to this discussion, the allocation towards schemes dealing with communicable diseases, in general, has remained unchanged, especially when ‘Indians are getting sick mostly due to infections’, according to NSSO study, as reported on November 25, 2019.

India’s ability to contain epidemic is much less than China:

In a relative yardstick, China, reportedly, has built a better health care infrastructure than India to respond to various health related needs of the country’s population, including emergency situation, such as Coronavirus. Some of the key reasons, for example, are as follows:

While India shows one of the lowest government-spend on public health care, as a percentage of GDP, and the lowest per capita health spend, China spends 5.6 times more.

When Indians met more than 62 percent of their health expenses from their personal savings, as ‘out-of-pocket expenses’, the same is 54 per cent in China.

India’s ability to quarantine a large number of infected people is much limited as compared to China.

Health service delivery system, especially for over 70 percent of the rural population of India, lack adequate scientific and skilled manpower, alongside necessary emergency equipment to provide care to a large number of patients at the same time, if epidemics strike.

Around 74 percent of health care professionals happen to be concentrated in urban areas, catering to just a third of Indian population, leaving rural areas under-served, according to a KPMG report. Alongside, the country is 81 percent short of specialists at rural community health centers (CHCs).

Conclusion:

The recent Coronavirus outbreak sends a strong signal to public health authorities, across the world, about the task-cut out for them to catch the early signs of possible epidemics. Many countries, especially India, have much ground to cover to ensure the right level of preparedness in countering such unannounced biological threats.

Capacity building for prevention, early detection, taking medical countermeasures – to contain the fast spread of the deadly organisms, and effective treatment response at the earliest, is the need of the hour. India also needs to develop capabilities for rapid development of drugs and vaccines in such a situation, fighting against time. Quoting the National Institute of Virology, some recent reports indicate that India’s scientific expertise and manpower aren’t enough, just yet, to deal with similar crises.

India’s public healthcare system and its delivery mechanism are still not robust enough either to keep in quarantine or in providing effective treatment and care for a large number of patients during any epidemic situation.

Against this perspective, I reckon, India is still grossly underprepared to face any biological threat, if it strikes with all its might. In that sense, the scary Coronavirus episode may be construed as yet another wake-up call to break the perceived slumber of the Government, if not apathy, as it were.

Thus, the question that surfaces: Shouldn’t the country, at least now, deploy enough resources to protect its citizens from any possible biological threats and aggression, just as it does, to provide safety, security and well-being of the population against any other external or internal threats?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Is India in The Eye of The AMR Storm?

Posted on August 26, 2019 by Tapan Ray

‘With 700,000 people losing battle to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) per year and another 10 million projected to die from it by 2050, AMR alone is killing more people than cancer and road traffic accidents combined together.’ This was highlighted in the Review Article, ‘Antimicrobial resistance in the environment: The Indian scenario,’ published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR), on June 03, 2019.

The article further noted, ‘AMR engendered from the environment has largely remained neglected so far,’ which has a snowballing effect. Illustrating the enormity of its impact, the researchers recorded: ‘Economic projections suggest that by 2050, AMR would decrease gross domestic product (GDP) by 2-3.5 percent with a fall in livestock by 3-8 percent, costing USD100 trillion to the world.’

Besides International media, fearsome consequences of AMR are also being highlighted by the Indian media from time to time. For example, on November 21, 2018, a leading national business daily carried an apt headline: ‘India in the firing line of antimicrobial resistance.’ More intensive coverage of such nature for this public menace, would hopefully appeal to the conscience of all those who can meaningfully address this situation, especially the government.

Against this backdrop, I shall explore in this article, whether India is really in the eye of this AMR storm, which is posing an unprecedented threat to many lives, perhaps more in India.

India is being called the AMR capital of the world:

Analyzing the emerging research data in this area, India was referred to as ‘the AMR capital of the world,’ in the 2017 Review Article, title ‘Antimicrobial resistance: the next BIG pandemic.’ Curiously, besides umpteen number of published papers documenting this scary development, very few enlightened individuals would dare to push an argument to the contrary. Whereas, besides framing a policy document on AMR,nothing much is changing in India on this score. This is happening, even when it is evidenced that a gamut of the most powerful antibiotics, are not working against many deadly bacteria. Added to it, India still doesn’t have a public database that provides death due to AMR.

Are adequate resources being deployed to fight the menace:

Today one would witness with pride that India’s ‘Chandrayaan 2’ lunar mission is moving towards the Moon’s south polar region, where no country has ever gone before. At the same time, despite AMR threat, India’s budgetary allocation for health in 2018-2019, reportedly, shows a 2.1 percent decrease of the total Union Budget from the 2.4 percent in 2017-2018.

It is interesting to note that India: ‘Despite being the world’s sixth largest economy, public health spending has languished at under 1.5 percent of GDP, one of the lowest rates in the world. For comparison, the United Kingdom shelled out 9.6 percent of its GDP in 2017 on health. The United States’ health expenditure is 18 percent of GDP.’

‘Ayushman Bharat’ and health care infrastructure:

Recently lunched public health program - Ayushman Bharat, although is not a Universal Health Care (UHC) program, it has targeted to cover ‘less than half the population and excluding 700 million people’. While giving a thumbs-up to this initiative, if one looks at the overall health infrastructure in India to make it possible as intended, it may not encourage many.

To illustrate this point, let me quote only the salient points, as captured in a 2018 study, published in the British Medical Journal, as follows:

The total size of health workforce estimated from the National Sample Survey (NSS) data was 3.8 million as of January 2016, which is about 1.2 million less than the total number of health professionals registered with different councils and associations.

The density of doctors and nurses and midwives per 10,000 population is 20.6 according to the NSS and 26.7 based on the registry data.

Health workforce density in rural India and states in eastern India is lower than the WHO minimum threshold of 22.8 per 10,000 population.

More than 80 percent of doctors and 70 percent of nurses and midwives are employed in the private sector.

Approximately 25 percent of the current working health professionals do not have the required qualifications as laid down by professional councils, while 20 percent of adequately qualified doctors are not in the current workforce.

The intent to deliver health care as announced by various governments from time to time is good. But, the available health infrastructure to deliver these meaningfully are grossly inadequate, creating a huge apprehension among many. This is not just because of the grossly inadequate number of hospitals, doctors, nurses and paramedics, but also their even uneven spread in the country. The cumulative impact of these, fueled by corruption, ‘missing doctors, ill-equipped health professionals, and paucity of required funds’ continue creating a humongous problem for the public, at large, to get affordable health care.

At the same time, there is ‘a serious lack of new antibiotics under development to combat the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance.’ Imagine, a situation when India gets caught in the eye of the AMR storm and imagine the consequences of that, as you deem appropriate.

Lack of new antibiotics under development to combat AMR:

The World Health Organization (WHO) report - ‘Antibacterial agents in clinical development – an analysis of the antibacterial clinical development pipeline, including tuberculosis’, launched on September 20, 2017 shows ‘a serious lack of new antibiotics under development to combat the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance.’

It further reported: ‘Most of the drugs currently in the clinical pipeline are modifications of existing classes of antibiotics and are only short-term solutions.’ The report also found, very few potential treatment options for those antibiotic-resistant infections identified by WHO as posing the greatest threat to health, including drug-resistant tuberculosis which kills around 250 000 people each year.

Thus, the point to ponder simultaneously is, whether there is any decline in global investments for antibiotic research, both by the drug industry and the public funders.

Declining investment on new antibiotic R&D:

As stated in the May 2016 paper, titled ‘Tackling Drug-Resistant Infections Globally. As the report indicates: ‘The UK Prime Minister commissioned the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance to address the growing global problem of drug-resistant infections. It is chaired by Jim O’Neill and supported by the Wellcome Trust and UK Government, but operates and speaks with full independence from both.’

The report acknowledges that new antibiotic research and development has been suffering from decades of under-investment by companies and governments. The reason being, antibiotic discovery and development are no longer an attractive proposition for commercial drug developers, for a key fundamental reason:

And this is, lack of a dependable, commercially-attractive market for antibiotics that meet large unmet medical needs. As a result, the volume of sales of a such new antibiotics will be low, and restricted only to multi-drug resistant bacteria. Otherwise, older and cheaper antibiotics will still work against most other infections. In that scenario, patented new antibiotics will have to compete with generics, keeping the price low. This combination of price pressure and low volumes makes antibiotics unattractive as a commercial proposition for many drug developers.

Which is why, as the report says: ‘Less than 5 percent of venture capital investment in pharmaceutical R&D between 2003 and 2013 was for antimicrobial development.’ Against total venture capital investment of USD 38 billion in pharmaceutical R&D, antimicrobial venture capital investment was mere USD 1.8 billion, during the same period. Coming back to India specific concerns, let’s have a look at the sociocultural issues in the country, associated with AMR.

Sociocultural issues are fueling the fire:

Understandably, the AMR problem remains intricately intertwined with a number of sociocultural issues of India. It has been established in several studies that social level, socioeconomic and socio-cultural status can play a significant role in the health status of people. Most research done on this subject indicates that higher level of socioeconomic classes reflects at a higher level of health and longevity. Much of this comes from the fact that there is a higher level of education and health care that is available for ‘this class level’.

Sociocultural issues in India also includes, poor hygienic practices, inadequate clean water and good sanitation facilities across the country, besides improper implementation and lack of good governance of health policies, rules and regulations. These factors are also aggravating the AMR problems in the country, as stated in the article, titled ‘‘Public Health Challenges in India,’ published in the Indian Journal of Community Medicine, in its April-June 2016 issue. Which is why, just addressing the indiscriminate use of antibiotics and restricting its wide consumption, aren’t not enough, any longer.

Is India in the eye of the AMR storm?

‘Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has emerged as a major threat to public health estimated to cause 10 million deaths annually by 2050. India carries one of the largest burdens of drug-resistant pathogens worldwide.’ This was highlighted in the research paper, titled ‘Antimicrobial resistance: Progress in the decade since the emergence of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase in India’, published in the Indian Journal of Community Medicine, on March 12, 2019.

The article noted, ‘AMR has been identified as a global health threat with serious health, political, and economic implications.’ The paper concluded with a serious note, which is worth taking note of. It found, the full throttle efforts to tackle the AMR challenge in India still requires significant efforts from all stakeholders. It underscored, ‘Despite the adoption of a national policy and significant activities already underway, progress is limited by a lack of clear implementation strategy and research gaps.’

Suggested areas of focus in India:

As ‘the Sword of Damocles’, in the form of AMR, hangs over the head of Indian population, there are certain important measures that the country can definitely take to contain AMR, whereas some other critical ones will be challenging to roll out, immediately.

It is unlikely, during this period India will have the requisite wherewithal to focus on discovery and development of new antibiotics to tackle AMR. Similarly, only framing rules and regulations for doctors, patients, dispensing chemists or hospitals to prevent antibiotic misuse, which are not persuasively yet strongly implemented, won’t also yield desired results. Nevertheless, efforts must continue for their effective compliance.

That said, what the country can seriously focus on, sans much constraints, is on taking collective measures in resolving some of the crucial but intimately associated sociocultural issues, with all sincerity and precision. A few of these important areas include, intense public awareness campaigns on the growing threat to life due to AMR, clubbing the benefits of availing good sanitation facilities, hygienic lifestyle and everyday practices.

Moreover, misuse of antibiotics in poultry, animal farming and agriculture should be curbed. Alongside, mass vaccination program for prevention of bacterial and viral infections, should be made available all over the country. Monitoring of the incidence of death due to AMR, on an ongoing basis, is another practice should also feature in the must-do list, providing access to this database to public. Responding meaningfully to International coalition for country-specific action, is also very important. To attain this goal a healthy socioeconomic environment needs to be encouraged, with corruption free efficient governance.

Conclusion:

That India is in the eye of the AMR storm, can’t be wished away any longer. Thus, the fight against AMR will need to be a well-orchestrated one, engaging all stakeholders as partners. The private sector should also actively participate in the AMR awareness programs under public–private partnership (PPP) or through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives.

The whole process should be backed by a creative strategy, having buying-in from all concerned, but spearheaded by the government. That’s the minimum that, I reckon, should happen when the country is in the eye of the impending AMR storm.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Deadly Climate Change Impact On Human Health: How Prepared Is India?

Posted on August 12, 2019 by Tapan Ray

It’s not uncommon to find many people, including heads of countries, expressing their serious apprehensions in public, about the scary impact of climate change. Just the last year, on November 26, 2018, BBC News captured one of such incidences with the astonishing headline: “Trump on climate change report: I don’t believe it.” The findings of this report have underscored, ‘unchecked global warming would wreak havoc on the US economy.’

Similarly, a few years ago, on September 05, 2014,CNN News 18 quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi as saying: “Climate has not changed. We have changed. Our habits have changed,’ while answering to a question on climate change. Regardless of the outcome of any split-hair analysis of the rationale behind such statements from the world leaders, such public discourse could trivialize the possible catastrophic impact of climate change on the planet earth.

Be that as it may, that climate change is taking place, carrying all its ill-effects, is real now, without any ambiguity. There is also widespread consensus among the members of the United Nations that ‘the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented during post hunter-gatherer human existence.’

It is worth noting that way back in 2001, the ‘Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’, further recorded: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities”, most importantly the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

Several ‘International Agreements’, including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change - all supported by hard scientific data, have called for immediate, quantifiable measures in each country to address the ‘wide-ranging environmental threats, such as ozone depletion and long-range transboundary air pollution.’ Against this backdrop, in this article, I shall focus on the dreadful effect of climate change in the proliferation of a wide-variety of ailments, especially infectious diseases, within a few decades. While doing so, let me first have a quick recap on what is ‘Climate Change’, in a simple language.

Climate Change – a quick recap:

According to the United Nations, ‘Climate Change is the defining issue of our time and we are at a defining moment. From shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.’

It’s important to note, although, the planet Earth’s climate is constantly changing over geological time, the current period of warming is occurring more rapidly than many past events. Scientists are concerned that the natural fluctuation or variance, is being overtaken by a rapid human-induced warming, as they emit more greenhouse gases. As these gases get trapped in the atmosphere, more heat is retained that has serious implications for the stability of the planet’s climate, even impacting human health with grave consequences. The World Health Organization (W.H.O) has also warned that the health of millions could be threatened by increases in malaria, waterborne disease and malnutrition.

Its impact human health:

The direct and indirect impact of climate change on human health is profound. Before I go into the specifics, let me indicate some of the direct ones, as captured by the Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington. This is sans any charts and maps, unlike the usual practice:

Increasing temperatures are causing poor air quality that can affect the heart and worsen cardiovascular disease.

Increasing exposure to pollen, molds, and air pollution, all of which can worsen allergies and other lung diseases, such as asthma.

Changes in the geographic range of disease-carrying insects, such as mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and other similar ones, which can fast spread many tropical ailments, such as dengue fever and malaria to humans.

Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events can cause, besides many physical illnesses, several kinds of mental illnesses – increasing both morbidity and mortality.

Frequent flooding events and sea level rise can contaminate water with harmful pathogens and chemicals, potentially causing food-borne and waterborne illnesses.

Changing weather patterns affect the quality and quantity of nutritious foods with increasing incidence of under-nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies.

Additional stress placed on hospital and public health systems, could limit people’s ability to obtain adequate health care during extreme weather events and disease outbreaks.

Most specific and the deadly one:

The World Health Organization (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses,’ clearly flagged that ‘Changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change.’

Citing a pertinent analogy to explain the reason, it said: “Humans have known that climatic conditions affect epidemic diseases from long before the role of infectious agents was discovered, late in the nineteenth century. Roman aristocrats retreated to hill resorts each summer to avoid malaria. South Asians learnt early that, in high summer, strongly curried foods were less likely to cause diarrhea.”

Would pharma players convert these problems into opportunities?

Curiously, some pharmaceutical investors are researching to fathom potential business opportunities lying underneath the above problem, especially for vaccines and newer antimicrobials. It’s probably a blessing in disguise not just for the drug companies, but also for the general public, considering the following two issues, prevailing in the current scenario:

According to W.H.O, Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is an increasingly serious threat to global public health. It threatens the effective prevention and treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi, causing the success of even major surgery and cancer chemotherapy seriously compromised.

‘Pharmaceutical companies are backing away from a growing threat that could kill 10 million people a year by 2050’, reported a July 19, 2018 article. This is because, ‘Antibiotics Aren’t Profitable Enough for Big Pharma to Make More,’ wrote another article, published in Bloomberg Businessweek, on May 3, 2019.

Interestingly, a recent report analyzed and evaluated how this can be done, and which companies will be benefitted most in that process.

“Climate change to fetch a big business opportunity for pharma”:

As reported on July 25, 2019, Morgan Stanley told investors that climate change will cause an increased prevalence and rapid spread of infectious diseases that may be a boon for some drug companies with big vaccine portfolios. It also highlighted, between 383 million and 725 million more people may be exposed to Zika, dengue and other diseases by 2050, depending on the pace and severity of global warming.

The analysts estimated, especially 7 pharma companies will be critical to fighting infectious diseases brought on by climate change. According to the research note of thebank, ‘the USD 500 billion infectious disease market could see demand for an added USD 125 billion in new vaccines, or as much as USD 200 billion assuming premium pricing for more complex new treatments.’

The top possible gainers:

Identifying the top possible gainers, Morgan Stanley apprised, vaccine development being more difficult and expensive, companies that are already in that business will have an upper hand.

Hence, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline are expected at the top, given their existing pipelines and manufacturing capacity. Takeda and Merck both have vaccines in the works for dengue fever, one of the diseases that climate change is likely to exacerbate. Janssen and Pfizer are both active in the vaccines market, but would need to establish new research programs to take on tropical diseases. ‘Moderna’ is also in a good position because it has demonstrated a potential pipeline for drugs combating the Zika virus., as Morgan Stanley further elaborated.

Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley isn’t the only bank looking at investment opportunities from climate change, on July 24, 2019, Goldman Sachs also, reportedly, said it was hiring a sustainable-finance group that is looking into issues related to sustainability. Thus, on the positive side, climate change could fetch a big business opportunity for many pharma players, across the world.

600 million people at risk for climate change in India:

On June 24, 2019, a reputed national business news daily of India reported, “600 million people at risk: Climate change may soon turn critical in India.” Against this threat, the current public health care infrastructure in the country, continues to remain fragile, as stated in India’s National Health Profile, 13^thIssue.

It also states, the cost of treatment has been on the rise in India and it has led to inequity in access to health care services. Intriguingly, the country spends around 1.02 percent of its GDP towards public health, which has remained static to declining over a long period of time. Although, health insurance is a growing segment, it hasn’t taken off fully. Several measures are needed to improve and expand insurance coverage.

Further, according to the report by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) in the US, India is facing shortage of 600,000 doctors and 2 million nurses. This report was widely quoted by the Indian media, on April 14, 2019.

These facts give a perspective on what is India’s level of preparedness to address the critical health issues related to climate change, especially the havoc that the dreaded infectious diseases can cause to so many.

Conclusion:

Astute health policy makers, including a large section of the top political echelon of the country are, apparently, aware of various ill effects of climate change. They also seem to be cognizant that these are likely to accelerate the worsening health problems of the population, including infectious diseases, asthma and other respiratory diseases.

Assuming, new and modern drugs will keep coming to help treat these ailments, do we have a functioning and efficient public health infrastructure to grapple with such issues. What about high out of pocket expenditure towards healthcare for a large section of the population, regardless of Ayushman Bharat?

As the (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses’ recommended, ‘early planning for health is essential to reduce, hopefully avoid, near future and long-term health impacts of global climate change. The optimal solution, however, is in the hands of governments, society and every individual—a commitment to a change in values, to enable a full transition to sustainable development.’

That said, as India is also a signatory to the latest Paris Agreement on Climate Change, can we assume, India will walk the talk to significantly contain its deadly impact on human health? How is India preparing itself to meet this great challenge of Probably it is anybody’s guess, at least, as on date?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Access To Comprehensive Healthcare Merits Multipronged Approach

Posted on December 10, 2018 by Tapan Ray

Since the turn of the new millennium, several high profile and flagship health schemes are being announced in India by the Union successive governments. Some of the important ones will include the National Health Mission, Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) - a Health Insurance Scheme for the Below Poverty Line families and now Ayushman Bharat – National Health Protection Mission - expected to cover over 100 million poor and vulnerable families providing coverage up to 500,000 rupees per family per year for hospitalization related to secondary and tertiary care.

Besides, the Mental Health Care Act 2017 has been operational since last year. It was passed by the Rajya Sabha in August 2016, and the Lok Sabha on March 2017. The right to mental health care is the core of the Act.

Each of these announcements look good on paper and was accompanied with lofty government promises. Riding on the waves of hypes thus created, public expectations increased commensurately for getting easy access to a comprehensive and affordable health care, which now includes ‘Mental Health’ as well. Unfortunately, the Gordian knot in Indian public healthcare space continued to exist. As various reports indicate, for example, one that appeared on November 27, 2018, – even Ayushman Bharat is apparently moving towards the same detection driven by some critical basic issues.

Consequently, scores of people still do not have adequate and affordable access to basic health care, including essential drugs – clamping price control notwithstanding. The government knows it well, as it increases vigil on drug pricing. Pharma industry also feels its scorching heat. Overall storyline remains mostly unchanged. The vicious cycle continues.

In this article, I shall dwell on a system-approach to delivering comprehensive public health care. The key objective is trying to figure out what is the core problem that most of these schemes are either not addressing or doing it with a ‘band-aid’ approach. One of the key requirements for improving access to health care significantly, I reckon, is a clear understanding on the characterizations of the critical stages of healthcare access and their dimensions, from the patients’ perspective.

However, before doing so, let me glance upon some health care related current and important facts, as uploaded in the government’s National Health Profile 2018.

National Health Profile 2018:

As available in the National Health Profile (NHP) of India – 2018, following are some of the important facts, which are worth noting:

In the current budget year, public (government) spending on health is just 1.3 per cent of the GDP against the global average for the same at 6 percent.

Just one doctor serves a population of 11,000 people, which is way below W.H.O recommended a doctor to population ratio of 1:1,000. The scenario is even worse in many states, such asBihar with 1: 28,391, Uttar Pradesh records 1:19,962, Jharkhand with 1:18,518, Madhya Pradesh shows 1:16,996 and Chhattisgarh at 1:15,916.

Per capita public expenditure by the government on health, stands at Rs 1,112 that comes to Rs 3 per day. This puts India below other low-income nations like the Maldives (9.4), Bhutan (2.5), Sri Lanka (1.6) and Nepal (1.1).

These numbers provide just a flavor of the Indian healthcare space, as it stands today. Some may of course talk about legacy factor, but to move ahead more important for all is what is happening today in this regard. Yes, one more health mission, as mentioned above, has been launched on September 25, 2018 with similar hype as the past ones, if not more. Only the future will tell us what changed it brings to the ground. That said, I am not very upbeat about it either, as providing a comprehensive health care access has always been multi-factorial and will remain so. Let me now dwell on why I am saying so.

Understanding health care access:

The 2013 research paper on “Improving Healthcare Access in India” by erstwhile IMS Consulting group (now IQVIA), said that ‘health care access characterizes 3 stages,’ which from the patient’s perspective has 4 key dimensions. In the Indian context, these three stages are:

Accessing care: Physical reach and location
Receiving care: Availability/capacity, Quality/functionality
Paying for care: Affordability

Accordingly, healthcare access is a function of 4 key aspects:

Physical reaches to health care facility
Availability of doctors and medicines in those places
Quality of care provided by these centers
Affordability of treatment, if available there

Access to healthcare is slowly improving, but far from being enough:

All the above schemes of the government are primarily focused on ‘paying for care’ stage and ‘affordability’ of treatment, including drugs. To a limited extent it makes sense as the above study vindicates that ‘availability’ and ‘affordability’ have good impact on ‘access to health care’.

Since the inception of NHM, this approach, no doubt, has made some improvement in the overall access to health care in the country, as many studies indicate. The IMS Consulting study also observes that compared to 2004, more patients received free medicines in outpatient care in 2013 – over 50 percent of patients going to Government hospitals say that they get free medicines there. However, the outcomes of the same across the Indian states vary quite a lot.

Inadequate healthcare infrastructure and physical reach in rural areas:

Having noted that, grossly inadequate availability of public health care infrastructure – or when available physical access to many of those from remote villages, coupled with lack of availability of required doctors, paramedics, nurses and medicines in those dispensaries – often become major issues. Moreover, their capacity to providing quality care, besides longer waiting time, often pushes many – either to remain virtually untreated or to go to private care centers costing much more.

The study finds that such movement of people from public to private facilities leads to higher health care costs. Consequently, high usage of private channels drives up the out of pocket (oop) cost of treatment. Some of the details are as follows:

74 percent of patients sought private consultation
85 percent of ‘oop’ spending on health care was in the private sector
81percent of patients incurred ‘oop’ expenditure for medicines

Curiously, 35 percent of patients in the study rated public health facilities as – good. Whereas an overwhelming 81 percent said so for private facilities. Nevertheless, associated high ‘oop’ expenditure for the same often becomes an economic burden. The large number of patients with chronic ailments, are the major sufferers.

Application of mobile-health could help improve access:

On improving access to health care in India, an interesting ‘Review Article’ titled, “Applications of m-Health and e-Health in Public Health Sector: The Challenges and Opportunities”, appeared in the International Journal of Medicine and Public Health, April-June, 2018 issue, makes some thought-provoking observations.

It says, while the use of mobile phone (MPs) has become commonplace in many industry sectors, such as banking, railways, airlines – the public health sector has been somewhat slow in adopting MP technologies into routine operations. Its innovative use can benefit patients and providers alike by enhancing access to health care.Smartphones’ usefulness in the treatment of chronic diseases – for example, monitoring of blood pressure, blood sugar, body weight, electro- cardiograph (ECG), has already been established.

The paper also suggests, mobile health (m-H) is more effective when tailored to specific social, ethnic, demographic group using colloquial language. If implemented craftily and systematically, m-H can revolutionize the scenario of the health care delivery system, in many ways. Optimal doctor-patient engagement policy for m-H needs to be formulated, outlining a legal framework and with multi-stakeholder collaboration.

Mental health still largely ignored:

Another important aspect of comprehensive health care is ‘Mental Health’, as more than 60 million Indians suffer from mental disorders, suicides being one of the major killers in India (Source: W.H.O, IndiaSpend). However, it is disturbing to note that awareness and access to mental health treatment, especially in the hinterland of the country, continue to remain ignored. Increasing incidences of farmers’ suicides, for example, notwithstanding.

This was further elaborated by the IndiaSpend report of January 30, 2018, which underscored:“Allocation to the National Program for Mental Health has been stagnant for the past three years. At Rs 350 million, the program received 0.07 percent of India’s 2017-18 health budget.This is despite the fact that an estimated 10-20 million Indians (1-2% of the population) suffer from severe mental disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, and nearly 50 million (5 percent of the population) – almost equal to the population of South Africa–suffer from common mental disorders such as depression and anxiety.”

The report further highlights that, notwithstanding 15 suicides every hour and 133,623 suicides in 2015, India is short of 66,200 psychiatrists and 269,750 psychiatric nurses. It is also noteworthy, while a frugal sum of 0.06 percent of India’s health budget is for mental health care, the same for even Bangladesh stands at 0.44 percent (Source: W.H.O, IndiaSpend).

Conclusion:

From the above perspective, I reckon, although access to health care in India, except ‘mental health care’, is improving at a modest pace, it doesn’t seem to be anywhere near adequate, as on date. A holistic approach for a comprehensive health care access to all, through the public health system, seems to be the need of the hour.

That said, currently India is not meeting the minimum W.H.O recommendations for healthcare workforce and also in bed density. A large section of the population continues to lack affordable access to quality health care. Moreover, the importance of mental health is still unknown to many in the country.

Thus, in tandem with addressing all the three stages and four key dimensions of comprehensive health care access, it is imperative to leverage new technology-based e-healthcare and digital devices like m-Health. Together, these will help provide and facilitate not just quality care to patients, but also complement the healthcare infrastructure, including doctors and paramedics – making quality and affordable health care accessible to all.

As I said in my article, titled ‘Mental Health Problem: A Growing Concern in The Healthcare Space of India, the ‘Mental Health Care Bill’, which is now an Act, redefines mental illness to better understand various conditions that are persistent among the Indian population.This is a good development, as it aims at protecting the rights of persons with mental illness and promote access to mental health care. Since, the current ground reality in this area is a cause of great concern, when will it be effectively implemented for all, is the all-important question.

It is imperative for all concerned to understand that improving access to comprehensive health care is multi-factorial issue. Therefore, it needs nothing less than a well-thought out multi-pronged approach for an effective solution.

By: Tapan J. Ray

National Health Policy 2017: Some Silver Linings, Some Trepidation

Posted on March 27, 2017 by Tapan Ray

In September 2016, the Supreme Court directed the Indian Government to finalize the ‘National Health Policy (NHP)’ guaranteeing ‘assured health services to all’, a draft version of which was already made available to the public on December 30, 2014.

In its order the Apex Court had said: “In case the Union of India thinks it worthwhile to have a National Health Policy, it should take steps to announce it at the earliest and keep issues of gender equity in mind.”

After a wait of over two years, on March 16, 2017, the Union Cabinet approved the final version of the National Health Policy 2017 (NHP 2017) for implementation. The tough socioeconomic distress of the general population related to health care, fueled by near collapsing public health care delivery system when private health care providers are becoming more and more expensive, prompted the current Government to initiate drafting yet another new ‘Health Policy’, with a gap of around 15 years.

NHP 2017 covers a gamut of subjects while articulating its primary aim, which is to inform, clarify, strengthen and prioritize the role of the Government in shaping health systems in all its dimensions. These are investments in health, organization of health care services, prevention of diseases and promotion of good health through cross sectoral actions, access to technologies, developing human resources, encouraging medical pluralism, building a knowledge base, developing better financial protection strategies, strengthening regulation and health assurance.

In this article, primarily for greater clarity in understanding by the readers, I shall start with the reasons of my trepidation and then focus on the silver linings of the NHP 2017.

Some trepidation:

While explaining the reasons for my trepidation, I shall go back to what I said even before. Over several decades, many of us have tried to ferret out the reasons of giving low national priority to provide access to reasonably affordable, quality public health care to all its citizens by the successive Governments in India but in vain. The quest to know its rationale becomes more intense, as we get to know, even some developing countries in Asia, Africa and Middle East are taking rapid strides to catch up with the health care standards of the developed countries of the world.

In the last few years, many such countries, such as, Thailand, Turkey, Rwanda and Ghana, besides China, have successfully ensured access to quality and affordable health care to their citizens through well-structured national initiatives. The Governments of economically poorer countries, such as, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh too are making rapid progress in this direction, protecting the most vulnerable populations in their respective countries from getting sucked into extreme poverty.

In this context, it will be worthwhile recapping that the NHP 1983, which was revised in 2002, also recommended an increase in public health expenditure to 2.0 percent of GDP in 2010. Not too long ago, in October 2010, the then Government in power constituted a ‘High Level Expert Group (HLEG)’ on Universal Health Coverage (UHC) under the chairmanship of the well-known international medical expert Prof. K. Srinath Reddy. The HLEG was mandated to develop a framework for providing easily accessible and affordable health care to all Indians. The HLEG Report defined UHC as follows:

“Ensuring equitable access for all Indian citizens, resident in any part of the country, regardless of income level, social status, gender, caste or religion, to affordable, accountable, appropriate health services of assured quality (promotive, preventive, curative and rehabilitative) as well as public health services addressing the wider determinants of health delivered to individuals and populations, with the government being the guarantor and enabler, although not necessarily the only provider, of health and related services”.

That said, the reality is, even in the Union budget for 2017-18, the public spending on health keeps hovering around abysmal 1 percent of the GDP. The Union Budget Allocations for several critical health related programs have either remained just around the same as before, or have declined, in real terms. Almost similar trend is noticed in the States, as well. For example, according to the latest Maharashtra State Budget for 2017-18, the State has decided to spend much less on its medical and public health sector schemes in the forthcoming financial year.

Thus, leaving aside implementation of the most critical 1983 NHP goal of providing “Health for all by the year 2000 A.D”, even in 2017 India continues to grapple with the same sets of challenges for ensuring adequate availability, accessibility, affordability, and high quality of comprehensive health care for all.

Some silver linings:

Let bygones be bygones. Let me now focus on the silver linings of the NHP 2017.

Besides gradually raising public expenditure for health care from the current around 1.2 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP, following are examples of some silver linings as I see enshrined in several key objectives of the new health policy, besides several others:

Progressively achieve Universal Health Coverage: Assuring availability of free, comprehensive primary health care services; ensuring improved access and affordability, of quality secondary and tertiary care services through a combination of public hospitals and the strategic purchasing of services in health care deficit areas, from private care providers, especially the not-for profit providers; achieving a significant reduction in out of pocket expenditure due to health care costs with reduction in proportion of households experiencing catastrophic health expenditures and consequent impoverishment.

Reinforcing trust in Public Health Care System: Strengthening the trust of the common man in the public health care system by making it predictable, efficient, patient centric, affordable and effective, with a comprehensive package of services and products that meet immediate health care needs of most people.

Align the growth of the private health care sector with public health goals: Influence the operation and growth of the private health care sector and medical technologies to ensure alignment with public health goals.

Achieve specific quantitative goals and objectives: These are outlined under three broad components viz. (a) health status and program impact, (b) health systems’ performance and (c) health system strengthening. These goals and objectives are aligned to achieve sustainable development in the health sector in keeping with the policy thrust.

I was encouraged to note a few more silver linings, especially the following ones, from various different areas of the NHP 2017, which:

Intends to achieve the highest possible level of good health and well-being, through a preventive and promotive health care orientation, besides its emphasis on allocating up to two-thirds or more of resources to primary care followed by secondary and tertiary care.

Plans creation of Public Health Management Cadre in all States to optimize health outcomes and National Health Care Standards Organization to maintain adequate standards in public and private sector.

Advocates extensive use of digital tools for improving the efficiency and outcome of the health care system by creating a National Digital Health Authority (NDHA) to regulate, develop and deploy digital health covering the entire process of health care, besides encouraging the application of the ‘Health Card’ for access to a primary health care facility and services anytime, anywhere.

States that Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is an important tool to ensure that technology choice is not only participatory, but also guided by considerations of scientific evidence, safety, cost effectiveness, social values; and commits to the development of an institutional framework and required capacity for HTA’s quick adoption.

Assures timely revision of the National List of Essential Medicines along with the appropriate price control.

Promotes compliance to right of patients to access information on condition and treatment.

The high and low points in NHP 2017:

As I see it, following are - just one each - the most critical high and low points in NHP 2017:

A high point:

NHP 2017 making a categorical promise to increase public health spending to 2.5 percent of GDP in a time-bound manner, guaranteeing Universal Health Care (UHC), is indeed not just encouraging, but also a high point in its silver linings. This is because, without adequate Government spending in this area, it’s just not possible to give shape to UHC, however robust a national health policy is on paper.

A low point:

The draft version of the NHP 2017 had proposed making health a fundamental right for Indian citizens – quite like denial of health is an offence, and reiterated on enactment of this law as follows:

“Many industrialized nations have laws that do so. Many of the developing nations that have made significant progress towards universal health coverage, such as Brazil and Thailand, have done so, and … such a law is a major contributory factor. A number of international covenants to which we [India] are joint signatories give us such a mandate – and this could be used to make a national law. Courts have also rulings that, in effect, see health care as a fundamental right — and a constitutional obligation flowing out of the right to life.”

The draft NHP 2015 also assured, “The Centre shall enact, after due discussion and at the request of three or more states a National Health Rights Act, which will ensure health as a fundamental right, whose denial will be justiciable.”

Thus, one of the lowest points or most disappointing aspects of the NHP 2017, as compared to its draft version, is the absence of the intent of having a National Health Rights Act. This change makes UHC yet another promise, just as before, without any strong legal backing. As many experts believe, when legal rights and mechanisms institutionalize collaborative goals, methods, and service delivery, they create legally binding duties. Government agencies, patient advocates, and the public can invoke such laws to urge collaboration and seek required public health care services, as promised, always.

The reason behind general expectations for the National Health Rights Act, is mainly because previous National Health Policies also assured ‘health for all’ within a given time-frame. The same promise was also carried through by various successive Governments in the past, but did not come to fruition. Nothing has changed significantly on the ground related to public health care, not just yet. Hence, exclusion of the proposed section of this Act in the final version of the NHP 2017 is a low point for me.

The trepidation lingers. Will it be or won’t it be, yet another repetition of the Government promises made through NHPs or otherwise, is the moot question now.

In conclusion:

Specific time frame for achieving most of these policy objectives and intents are still awaited.

Nonetheless, while a robust health policy for a new India, and a commensurate increase in Government spending on public health is much warranted, building a well integrate, comprehensive and accountable health infrastructure that will be sensitive to public health care needs of the country, should assume top priority today.

There exists an 83 percent shortage of specialist medical professionals in the Community Health Centers (CHCs) of India, according to the Rural Health Statistics 2015 released by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, which was reported by IndiaSpend on September 21, 2015. Again, on February 27, 2016, quoting similar Government Data, IndiaSpend reported that public-health centers across India’s rural areas – 25,308 in 29 states and seven union territories – are short of more than 3,000 doctors, the scarcity rose by 200 percent (or tripling) over 10 years.

Other sets of similar data on the grossly inadequate number of doctors, nurses, paramedics and hospital beds per thousand population in India, coupled with frugal rapid transportation facilities in the vast and remote areas of the country, send a clear signal that capacity building in these areas can’t wait any longer. It has been always essential, but did not feature in the ‘to-do’ list of the Government, until now. In that sense, silver linings in the NHP 2017 open the door of great expectations, especially for UHC, despite some trepidation.

Reasonably well-crafted and robust NHP 2017, needs to be integrated with similar initiatives of the States, soon. Effective implementation of a comprehensive, well-integrated and time-bound health care strategic plan, with requisite budgetary allocations having a periodic review process and assigning specific accountabilities to individuals, are the needs of the hour. Otherwise, the social and economic consequences of the status quo in the health care space of India, would impede the sustainable growth of the nation, seriously.

To progress in this direction, the prevailing status-quo must be disrupted, now – decisively and with a great sense of urgency. It is imperative for the Government to make each one of us not only to believe it, but also experience the same in our everyday life. It is important for all concerned to remember what none other than Prime Minister Modi tweeted on March 16, 2017: “National Health Policy marks a historic moment in our endeavor to create a healthy India where everyone has access to quality health care.”

The National Health Policy 2017 is in place now, this is the time to walk the talk!

By: Tapan J. Ray

Does Healthcare Feature In Raisina Hill’s To-Do List?

Posted on June 27, 2016 by Tapan Ray

At the Capitol Hill, while addressing the joint session of the United States Congress, on June 08, 2016, our Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi well articulated the following, in his inimitable style:

“My to-do list is long and ambitious. It includes a vibrant rural economy with robust farm sector; a roof over each head and electricity to all households; to skill millions of our youth; build 100 smart cities; have a broadband for a billion, and connect our villages to the digital world; and create a 21st century rail, road and port infrastructure.”

This ambitious list is indeed praiseworthy. However, as the Prime Minister did not mention anything about health care infrastructure, while referring to rapid infrastructure development in India, it is not abundantly clear, just yet, whether this critical area finds a place in his ‘to-do’ list, as well, for ‘We The People of India’.

This apprehension is primarily because, no large scale, visible and concrete reform measures are taking place in this area, even during the last two years. It of course includes, any significant escalation in the public expenditure for health.

Ongoing economic cost of significant loss in productive years:

“The disease burden of non-communicable diseases has increased to 60 per cent. India is estimated to lose US$ 4.8 Trillion between 2012 and 2030 due to non-communicable disorders. It is therefore critical for India to transform its healthcare sector,” – says a 2015 KPMG report titled, ‘Healthcare: The neglected GDP driver.’

This significant and ongoing loss in productive years continues even today in India, handicapped by suboptimal health care infrastructure, and its delivery mechanisms. Such a situation can’t possibly be taken for granted for too long. Today’s aspiring general public wants the new political leadership at the helm of affairs in the country to address it, sooner. A larger dosage of hope, and assurances may not cut much ice, any longer.

Transparent, comprehensive, and game changing health reforms, supported by the requisite financial and other resources, should now be translated into reality. A sharp increase in public investments, in the budgetary provision, for healthy lives of a vast majority of Indian population, would send an appropriate signal to all.

As the above KPMG report also suggests: “It is high time that we realize the significance of healthcare as an economic development opportunity for national as well as state level.”

Pump-priming public health investments:

With a meager public expenditure of just around 1.2 percent of the GDP on health even during the last two years, instead of rubbing shoulders with the global big brothers in the health care area too, India would continue to rank at the very bottom.

Consequently, the gaping hole within the healthcare space of the country would stand out, even more visibly, as a sore thumb, escaping the notice, and the agony of possibly none.

With around 68 percent of the country’s population living in the rural areas, having frugal or even no immediate emergency healthcare facilities, India seems to be heading towards a major socioeconomic imbalance, with its possible consequences, despite the country’s natural demographic dividend.

According to published reports, there is still a shortage of 32 and 23 percent of the Community Health Centers (CHC) and the Primary Health Centers (PHC), respectively, in India. To meet the standard of the World Health Organization (WHO), India would need minimum another 500,000 hospital beds, requiring an investment of US$ 50 Billion.

Moreover, to date, mostly the private healthcare institutions, and medical professionals are engaged in the delivery of the secondary and tertiary care, concentrated mostly in metro cities and larger towns. This makes rural healthcare further challenging. Pump-priming public investments, together with transparent incentive provisions for both global and local healthcare investors, would help augmenting the process.

Help propel GDP growth:

As the above KPMG report says, the healthcare sector has the ability to propel GDP growth via multiple spokes, directly and indirectly. It offers a chance to create millions of job opportunities that can not only support the Indian GDP growth, but also support other sectors of the economy by improving both demand and supply of a productive healthy workforce.

Three key areas of healthcare:

Healthcare, irrespective of whether it is primary, secondary or tertiary, has three major components, as follows:

Prevention
Diagnosis
Treatment

Leveraging digital technology:

As it appears, leveraging digital technology effectively, would help to bridge the health care gap and inequality considerably, especially in the first two of the above three areas.

A June 06, 2016 paper titled, ‘Promoting Rural Health Care: Role of telemedicine,’ published by the multi-industry trade organization -The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) said: “With limited resources and a large rural population telemedicine has the potential to revolutionize the delivery of healthcare in India.”

As the report highlighted, it would help faster diagnosis of ailments, partly address the issues of inadequacy of health care providers in rural areas, and also the huge amount of time that is now being spent in physically reaching the urban health facilities. Maintenance of the status quo, would continue making the rural populace more vulnerable in the health care space, than their urban counterparts.

The study forecasted that India’s telemedicine market, which has been growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20 per cent, holds the potential to cross US$32 million mark in turnover by 2020, from the current level of over US$15 million.

According to another report, currently, with around 70 percent overall use of smartphones, it is quite possible to give a major technology enabled thrust for disease prevention, together with emergency care, to a large section of the society.

However, to demonstrate the real technology leveraged progress in this area, the Government would require to actively help fixing the requisite hardware, software, bandwidth and connectivity related critical issues, effectively. These will also facilitate keeping mobile, and other electronic health records.

Disease treatment with medicines:

To make quality drugs available at affordable prices, the Indian Government announced a new scheme (Yojana) named as ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’, effective July 2015, with private participation. This is a renamed scheme of the earlier version, which was launched in 2008. Under the new ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’, about 500 generic medicines will be made available at affordable prices. For that purpose, the government is expected to open 3000 ‘Jan Aushadhi’ stores across the country in the next one year i.e. 2016-17.

The question now is what purpose would this much hyped scheme serve?

What purpose would ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’ serve?

Since the generic drugs available from ‘Jan Aushadhi’ retail outlets are predominantly prescription medicines, patients would necessarily require a doctor’s physical prescription to buy those products.

In India, as the doctors prescribe mostly branded generics, including those from a large number of the Government hospitals, the only way to make ‘Jan Aushadhi’ drugs available to patients, is to legally allow the retailers substituting the higher priced branded generic molecules with their lower priced equivalents, sans any brand name.

Moving towards this direction, the Ministry of Health had reportedly submitted a proposal to the Drug Technical Advisory Board (DTAB) to the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), for consideration. Wherein, the Ministry reportedly suggested an amendment of Rule 65 of the Drugs and Cosmetics Rules, 1945 to enable the retail chemists substituting a branded drug formulation with its cheaper equivalent, containing the same generic ingredient, in the same strength and the dosage form, with or without a brand name.

However, in the 71st meeting of the DTAB held on May 13, 2016, its members reportedly turned down that proposal of the ministry. DTAB apparently felt that given the structure of the Indian retail pharmaceutical market, the practical impact of this recommendation may be limited.

For this reason, the ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’, appears to be not so well thought out, and a one-off ‘making feel good’ type of a scheme. It is still unclear how would the needy patients derive any benefit from this announcement.

Conclusion:

On June 20, 2016, while maintaining the old policy of 100 per cent FDI in the pharmaceutical sector, Prime Minister Modi announced his Government’s decision to allow foreign investors to pick up to 74 per cent equity in domestic pharma companies through the automatic route.

This announcement, although is intended to brighten the prospects for higher foreign portfolio and overseas company investment in the Indian drug firms, is unlikely to have any significant impact, if at all, on the prevailing abysmal health care environment of the country.

Hopefully, with the development of 100 ‘smart cities’ in India, with 24×7 broadband, Wi-Fi connectivity, telemedicine would be a reality in improving access to affordable healthcare, at least, for the population residing in and around those areas.

Still the fundamental question remains: What happens to the remaining vast majority of the rural population of India? What about their health care? Poorly thought out, and apparently superficial ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’ won’t be able to help this population, either.

With the National Health Policy 2015 draft still to see the light of the day in its final form, the path ahead for healthcare in India is still rather hazy, if not worrying.

As stated before, in the Prime Minister’s recent speech delivered at the ‘Capitol Hill’ of the United States earlier this month, development of a robust healthcare infrastructure in the country did not find any mention in his ‘to-do’ list.

Leaving aside the ‘Capitol Hill’ for now, considering the grave impact of health care on the economic progress of India, shouldn’t the ‘Raisina Hill’ start pushing the envelope, placing it in one of the top positions of the national ‘to-do’ list, only to protect the health interest of ‘We The People of India’?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Healthcare In India (2016-17): Whither Goest Thou?

Posted on February 29, 2016 by Tapan Ray

The Union Budget 2016-17 will be proposed today by the Finance Minister before the Indian Parliament. As many critical questions are currently being raised about the real health of the Indian economy, across the globe, the Union Finance Minister shoulders an onerous task to address all those apprehensions, beyond any further doubt.

Yesterday, in his monthly radio program ‘Mann Ki Baat’, Prime Minister Modi himself said, “Budget 2016 is my exam, 125 crore people will test me.” A large section of people also would probably view Union Budget 2016-17 in a similar way.

That said, we all know, that the system or the process of annual Union Budget presentation before the Parliament need not be considered as the primary platform to announce various policies of the Government to propel economic growth of the nation. Nevertheless, it certainly underscores the key focus areas, where the Government would prefer deploying country’s financial and other resources, through appropriate budgetary allocations, to effectively meet the key short and long term national goals.

Simultaneously, of course, the Finance Minister would also explain the measures that he proposes for raising the required wherewithal for the same.

The Economic Survey report 2015-16:

The Economic Survey report of the Government for 2015-16, tabled before the Parliament on February 26, 2016, reiterates a grim healthcare situation in India, for a vast majority of its citizens.

The report also underscores, that the average cost of treatment in private hospitals, excluding child birth, is currently about four times than that of public healthcare facilities. This alarming situation, fueled by the meager public health infrastructure in the country, severely limits healthcare access to many in the country. Its primary reason being, a large number of Indians are unable to incur so high out of pocket health expenditure.

A situation like this, brings to the fore the challenges that India faces in providing affordable and accessible healthcare to all those who need it most, the Survey document commented.

Thus, with limited resources and competing demands in the health sector, it is essential for the government to prioritize its expenditure in the sector, the report recommends.

Healthcare deserves a priority focus:

Healthcare, I believe, is one such domain that has been attracting a priority focus in all the developed and a large number of developing nations, since long. In this critical area, however, various national Governments in India have been just expressing its laudable intents, over a period of time. Unfortunately, no political dispensation, so far, has implemented anything hugely impactful to make its citizens feel a huge difference in this critical area, especially, by translating the promised intents into reality and keeping the nose to the grindstone.

Besides many other robust reasons, commercially too, the Indian healthcare industry is one of the largest growing sectors contributing around 10 percent of the GDP, employing around 4 million people.

The D-Day:

Today is the D-Day for the Financial Year 2016-17. We shall get to know soon, in which direction would public healthcare go, as we step into another brand new financial year, and in the third Union Budget of the Government in power.

On December 7, 2015, I wrote an article in this Blog on this issue, titled, “Healthcare: My Expectations From Union Budget (2016-17)”.

My expectations on healthcare budget allocations:

In the above article, I articulated my overall expectations on the allocations for healthcare in 2016-17 Union Budget proposals, as follows:

Increase total public health expenditure from the current 1.2 percent to at least 2.0 percent of the GDP and then raise it 2.5 percent over a period of next three years.

The main source of financing for public health should remain general taxation by levying ‘Health Cess’, quite in line with with ‘Swachh Bharat Cess’ at the rate of 0.5 percent on all taxable services, besides adding a similar tax on non-essential and luxury items.

Primary focus areas:

If something similar to the above budgetary provision is made for public health in India, the details would require to be worked out, if not done already, in the following five primary focus areas, as I envisage:

A. Infrastructure and capacity building:

- Focused and well-identified investments in building high quality public health infrastructure and well-skilled human resources for rural India on priority.

- Villages, based on population, would be identified by the respective State Governments.

B. Increasing access to quality public healthcare:

- Free universal access to primary care services to start with, across the country,

- Free drugs, free diagnostics and free emergency care services in all public hospitals of the country and for all.

- Free emergency response and patient-transport systems across the country, for all.

C. Strengthening the supply chain:

- Quality drug and diagnostics procurement system by the Central Medical Services Society (CMSS) of the Government needs to be modernized, strengthened and made more efficient with real time data, for easy availability of all required drugs and diagnostics in all public hospitals at the right time and in the right quantity.

- Today, a large number of life saving drugs and diagnostics is highly temperature sensitive. Thus, adequate cold chain facilities are to be created right from transportation to storage in public hospitals for all such products, maintaining their required efficacy and safety standards for patients.

D. Increasing awareness for disease prevention:

- Intensive multi-pronged, multi-channel and door to door campaigns by the para-medics to increase awareness for identified disease prevention.

E. Performance incentive:

- To achieve the desired level of success and increase the motivation level in a sustainable way, budgetary provisions to be made for a system of well-structured individual and team performance incentive scheme, when the key implementers exceed expectations by achieving the set goals well before schedule.

- Commensurate punitive measures for failure also to be put in place, simultaneously.

I shall not broach upon the area of Research and Development (R&D) for drugs and diagnostics here, as that could probably be considered in a holistic way under overall innovation, science and technology budget allocation required for the country, as a whole.

Conclusion:

February 29, 2016 is the moment of truth, of yet another year-long expectation in the key focus areas of the Government for resource mobilization and its meaningful deployment.

It is worth noting, however, that the much awaited “National Health Policy” has not been put in place before the Union Budget 2016-17, which could have given an indication to all, about the road map that the Government intends to follow in the healthcare domain of India.

Thus, it is possibly too late now to identify the specific health projects based on majority of citizen’s immediate health needs, from a well-articulated Health Policy for the country. Consequently, charting an action plan for joint implementation by the Central and the State Governments in unison, and making budgetary provisions accordingly for this year, to start with, may not just be feasible.

In the above situation, despite the recommendations of ‘The Economic Survey report 2015-16’, we may, at best see in today’s Union Budget, some ad hoc measures in this space. In any case discussing all these at this hour would just be a matter of speculation. Nevertheless, like many persons, I too keep my fingers crossed.

In any case, we all shall get to know today, the Finance Minister’s comprehensive budgetary proposals for this year, including healthcare. Till then, at least for 2016-17, the same question will keep haunting: Healthcare In India: Whither Goest Thou?

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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