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2020: Learnings From A Yearlong Catastrophic Disruption And Crystal-Gazing 2021

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 Wishing All My Readers A Very Happy, Healthy, Peaceful and Prosperous 2021

Just a few days left for the year 2020 to merge with history. It will be remembered by all – as a year of all-round catastrophic global disruption. With unprecedented impact on human lives, livelihoods, economy, and ways of doing things – sparing virtually nothing. The sole cause of which is an unprecedented single event – Covid-19 pandemic. As of December 27, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,118,392 new Coronavirus cases with 147,659 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further infection of Covid-19 infection continues.

In this article, I shall focus on some critical lessons learnt from the 2020 health crisis, while crystal-gazing 2021. I’ll do this purely from the health care perspective, in general, and the pharmaceutical industry, in particular. Keeping this in view, some of the lessons learnt during the pandemic are as follows:

A. Never allow a sense of hubris setting in:

This is easier said than done. Nonetheless, before the Covid pandemic played havocs with all, many top pharma leaders were, apparently, in a hubris. It was often laced with excessive confidence, if not arrogance. The predominant belief was nothing can go so wrong sans unfavorable policy decisions by the governments. This was against a much-known management dictum for all – always anticipate future probabilities that may impact the business and keep prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. On a hindsight, this was, obviously jettisoned – lock, stock and barrel. No one was prepared for any biological threats, such as, Covid pandemic, till the deadly virus caught the humanity off-guard around December 2019, as we see below:

The pandemic was expected, but struck unexpectedly:

A pandemic wasn’t totally unexpected either. Therefore, they question that surfaces - Experts warned of a pandemic decades ago. Why weren’t we ready? Just in 2015, even Bill Gates, during a Ted talk titled, “The next outbreak? We’re not ready,” also predicted - based on available facts that an epidemic would kill millions in the future.

He further added: “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s more likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war – not missiles, but microbes.” Gates further emphasized: “We have invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents, but we’ve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We’re not ready for the next epidemic.”

B. Research on anti-infective drugs shouldn’t be pushed to the back burner: 

These warnings were, apparently, ignored by the pharma industry. For example, as reported in the first quarter of 2020, many research-based pharma companies shifted ‘resources away from emerging infectious diseases into more lucrative areas like cancer treatment. Their business decisions risk leaving gaping holes in the fight against epidemics, such as the one caused by the novel Coronavirus.’

Let’s now take a pause for pharma players to ponder. Are they ready, at least now, with a robust plan – based on almost a year’s experience of an unprecedented agony along with its customers, specifically to counter any future biological threat? Be that as it may, there have also been some good outcomes out of the Covid crisis, both for the pharma industry and also for the health care customers.

C. The pandemic hastened pharma’s digital transformation process:

As is known, compared to many other industries, pharma industry was a late learner in the digitalization process of organizations. The new realities of disruptions caused by the pandemic had significantly expedited this process to keep the business going. There were no other effective options available, either, but to move beyond business stabilization and redefine how they do business. The IQVIA article, ‘Digital transformation in a post-Covid-19 world,’ published in the Pharmaceutical Technology, on August 31, 2020, also reiterated this point.

Elaborating the point further, the article pointed out: ‘As a result, acceleration of three key capabilities is occurring to create sustainable competitive advantage,’ as follows:

  • Digital capabilities with modern technology are enabling companies doing the right things during the pandemic and accelerating the process.
  • Providing access to granular data to support the extraction of precise insights into the needs of patients and physicians.
  • Ensuring capabilities for sustaining relationships. While face-to-face interaction has been dramatically reduced, relationships with HCPs and patients are taking new shapes and are of more importance than ever before.

D. Telemedicine came under mainstream care, supported by Government:

Finding no other viable alternatives during the Covid lockdown period and the need to stringently follow prescribed health measures, many patients were pushed to search for a robust digital solution for health care needs. Just as many of them were already using online platforms to meet other regular needs. In that sense, Covid propelled health care into a virtual world, bringing telehealth or telemedicine toward mainstream care, supported by the Government with a policy, for the first time, ever.

E. Quality of pharma response to pandemic enhanced industry image:

As I had discussed before in this blog, Consumer centric communications, driven by the  ‘hope and confidence as companies rushed to come up with COVID-19 vaccines and treatments’ of all, helped to significantly enhance the industry’s image during the year. In my view, pharma shouldn’t let go this opportunity to reposition itself, to reap a rich harvest in the years ahead.

Crystal-gazing 2021: 

A. A lurking fear will keep haunting:

Moving away from the outgoing year – 2020, if one crystal gazes the incoming – yet another brand-new year – 2021, a lurking fear still haunts most peoples’ minds. Will the all-round disruptions of 2020 be the new normal in 2021 – with no further escalation of the current situation?

B. Vaccine rollout will reduce rapid spread, but not eliminate Covid-19:

Gradual rolling out of vaccines may reduce the rapid spread of pandemic, provided Covid-19 doesn’t throw more surprises, such as, complicated mutation, blunting this initiative. However, currently available evidence indicates, the new variant could be more transmissible, yet vaccines may work very well against it.

 C. Masking, physical distancing, hand washing, etc., will continue:

Besides, many yet unknown side effects, the duration of immunity following coronavirus vaccination is still largely unknown due to the simple lack of time we’ve had to study such immune responses. Moreover, the trials do not tell us if the vaccines can block the transmission of the disease from those who are asymptomatic and have been vaccinated. Thus, masking, physical distancing, hand washing, testing, treating and contact tracing, reportedly, will continue to be important in the global campaign against COVID-19, even after vaccine rollout.

D. NDDS for Covid drugs and vaccines may come: 

New formulations, new Covid drug delivery systems, newer methods to bring Covid vaccines, like nasal sprays, in a powder form for easy transportation and to reach more people around the world, are expected to commence in 2021.

E. Waiting for going back to pre-Covid game plan is a losing strategy:

Vaccines are unlikely to take us back to pre-Covid time, any time soon. Even McKinsey & Companypredicted the same in its article: ‘‘How COVID-19 is redefining the next-normal operating model,’ published on December 10, 2020. It emphasized: “With everything disrupted, going back to the same old thing is a losing strategy. The strongest companies are reinventing themselves by embracing pandemic- driven change.”

Many pharma majors are also echoing the same, even as Covid-19 vaccines have started rolling out for public in different parts of the world. After weighing-in the pros and cons of waiting, many of them have articulated: ‘We will not return to the old ways of working.’ They believe, it’s too early to put a specific timeline on turning that page now. Hence, the year 2021, working of the pharma companies is unlikely to be significantly different from the year 2020.

F. Need to capture and respond fast to changing customer behaviors:

Covid-19 pandemic is fast changing many human attitudes and behaviors, forcing organizations to respond. ‘However, the need to respond won’t end when the virus’s immediate threat eventually recedes,’ reaffirmed the Accenture article ‘COVID-19: 5 new human truths that experiences need to address.’ The massive behavior changes of key pharma stakeholders, at a never before scale and speed, will continue to prompt many leading drug companies to respond to them with well thought through digital tools, to gain competitive advantages.

G. Virtual meetings with reps, doctors and others will continue:

As witnessed in 2020, often for the first time – virtual meeting of sales reps, key opinion leaders and others will continue in 2021, even after ‘live’ ones return, but with more innovative structure and content. Pharma marketing’s long awaited and comprehensive digital foray will continue gaining a strong foothold, entering into new areas, without glancing back over the shoulder, in 2021.

H. More new drug launches will move entirely digital:

It began in 2020. For example, dozens of new drug launches moved entirely to digital, for the first time in 2020. As a pharma leader remarked, with the traditional launch framework gone during the pandemic, “we had to throw out the playbook and really embed into people’s heads that playbook is no longer meaningful. It no longer works, and we have to think outside the box.” She further added: “There’s truly no bigger place for a marketer right now. This is the new world.” None can deny this fact as we enter into the new year.

I. Success requirements of pharma professionals will be different:

With significant transformation of pharma’s operational strategies, success requirements of pharma professionals will also be significantly different in the new normal. Quick capturing and fast adaptation to the changing customer behavior for multi-channel engagement digital platforms, will be fundamentally important – not just for business excellence, but for its long-term sustainability, as well. This is a totally new and highly cerebral strategic ballgame, where obsolescence of cutting-edge technology is much faster than anything in the tradition driven old normal.

J. More pharma companies will explore inorganic growth opportunities:

More pharma companies will look for acquisitions to bridge the strategic gaps, as AstraZeneca did in 2020.

Conclusion:

In 2021, Covid Mayhem may possibly be over with a gradual rollout of vaccines. But, the impact of utter disruptions that the pandemic has caused in multiple areas of businesses in 2020, especially within the pharma industry, would continue, as we step into 2021. As the drug industry overwhelmed by Covid-19, reset themselves with the digital transformation in the new normal -for growth beyond Coronavirus, one may also view this much awaited metamorphosis, as a blessing in disguise, as it were.

Overall, as the W.H.O observed very rightly on December 27, 2020: “We throw money at an outbreak, and when it’s over, we forget about it and do nothing to prevent the next one. This is dangerously short-sighted, and frankly difficult to understand.” He further added: “History tells us that this will not be the last pandemic, and epidemics are a fact of life.” I hope, all concerned will realize this point in 2021. Alternatively, we may need to keep ourselves prepared to move, in a similar way, from the current new normal to yet unknown next normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 


Pharma Not To Let Go This Never Before Opportunity To Reposition Itself

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‘While the COVID-19 pandemic has placed unparalleled demands on modern healthcare systems, the industry’s response has vividly demonstrated its resilience and ability to bring innovations to market quickly.’ This appeared in the McKinsey & Company article – ‘Healthcare innovation: Building on the gains made through the crisis,’ published on November 12, 2020.

Just a couple of days before that, on November 09, 2020, an interesting article appeared in The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the resilience of the pharma industry. It also discussed on how ‘an often-disparaged industry is finding a rare opportunity to promote its value,’ to turn around public perception of its image and reputation during the pandemic. The article elaborated this point by quoting: “It was a fight between pharma, tobacco companies and the government for who would be at the bottom in terms of reputation,” – now “Covid is giving them an opportunity to step out of that world and into the world of ‘we can help,’ and it’s giving pharma a comeback.”

As is known to many, pharma industry was long vilified for its many self-serving objectives. But the Coronavirus pandemic helped immensely to highlight its role in developing medications and vaccines to save the humanity. It happened never before – ever, with this intensity and scale. Thus, the shift is inspiring many pharma giants to reposition their marketing and communications, the WSJ report added. This article will deliberate on how pharma marketers can leverage this once in a lifetime opportunity, with actionable insights on Covid pandemic-induced – changing needs of healthcare customers.

Covid-19 to change the way companies do business - A recent survey:

In this McKinsey & Company survey, published on June 17, 2020, more than 200 organizations across industries had participated in this study. Notably, over 90 percent of the participating executives expect the fallout from COVID-19 to fundamentally change the way companies do business over the next five years, with a lasting impact on their customers’ needs. In the pharma industry too, these trends are clearly visible and undergoing a metamorphosis. I quote below a few important points from this study, as illustrations:

  • Nearly 73 percent respondents from the pharma and medical supplies industries agree that the changes brought about by Covid-19 will be a big opportunity for growth.
  • Only 21 percent of the same executives feel that they are prepared with resources, expertise and commitment to address the changes they see coming, for harvesting the new growth opportunities.
  • Curiously, only 25 percent of respondents reported that capturing new growth was a top priority today, compared to roughly 60 percent before the crisis hit.
  • Notably, across the industries only pharma and medical product industries have increased their focus on innovation during Covid crisis. Although, many are still playing safe, which may be a shortsighted decision, the research paper observed. 

Understand the shifts and the opportunities with actionable insights:

That the current Covid crisis has significantly exacerbated and accelerated many disruptive forces, is vindicated by another survey: ‘Global B2B decision-maker response to COVID-19 crisis.’ This was published by the McKinsey & Company on October 20, 2020. It also reiterated, ‘B2B decision-maker preferences and behaviors have shifted dramatically since the onset of COVID. The GTM revolution is here and B2B sales is forever changed.’ I shall quote two of these areas, as follows:

A. Changes to pharma sales models: Companies with significant field forces can no longer rely on in-person coverage to outcompete. This is because:

  • The tide has turned: digital self-service and remote rep interactions are likely to be the dominant elements of the B2B go-to-market model, going forward.
  • Don’t count on returning to a pre-COVID-19 level of in-person sales coverage, as only 20–30% of B2B buyers want to ever interact with reps in person even in their ideal/post-COVID-19 model.
  • Around 90% of B2B decision makers expect the remote and the digital model to stick around for the long run, and 3 in 4 believe the new model is as effective or more so than before COVID-19 (for both existing customers and prospects).
  • 97% of B2B buyers claim they will make a purchase in an end-to-end, digital self-serve model, with the vast majority very comfortable spending more online.
  • Video-conference connections are critical and are preferred over audio/phone by almost 4 out of 5 B2B buyers.

B. Influx of competitors from different industries: Medical-device firms historically had a narrow competitive set and were insulated by a complex and highly technical regulatory approval process. They are now facing competition from previously unexpected new entrants, including Wearable Health Devices (WHDs) makers, such as Google, Apple among several others. As I also wrote about a year ago, on December 02, 2020, this is mostly because, WHDs help improve disease outcomes, creating a unique disease treatment experience.

Which is why, in the new normal, creating a holistic and innovative ‘Customer Experience’ is as important and challenging as creating ‘Innovative Drugs’.

Reposition pharma to create a holistic ‘Customer Experience’ in the new normal:

At the very beginning of this year, on January 13, 2020, I asked: What Pays More: Creating Innovative ‘Customer Experience’ Or ‘Innovative Drugs’? Although both are crucial for pharma, in the current scenario, the former, I reckon, is no less important or less demanding than the latter for pharma marketers. The question, therefore, arises, what new insights it will entail to meet the unmet changing needs of healthcare customers? The answers may point towards several areas, which are worth pondering over.

Leaving this exhaustive search for pharma professionals to gain the necessary insights for action, let me give an example of only one such area to drive home the point. An interesting article deliberating this area was published by Reuters Events on November 17, 2020. Especially in the new normal, finding solutions to unmet customer needs would prompt harnessing the combined and synergistic power of medical and marketing skills, creating a culture to match, as the article highlighted.

Elaborating this need, the author stressed, the traditional model of medical and marketing functions working in silos is often a barrier to a holistic customer approach. This is because it stifles the opportunity for co-creation of well-synchronized solutions on a number of medico marketing issues during patients’ disease treatment journey mapping. These customer-centric medico-marketing issues, I reckon, are coming more often now with the increasing number of more informed patients, especially about their personal health care and treatment needs.

Traditionally, in the pharma industry ‘working in silo culture’ is quite prevalent – medical and marketing functions are no different. Encouragingly, during this pandemic, several companies have formed cross-functional teams of medical and marketing professionals. They also create brand plans, develop content and communication strategies in the new digital platforms, as preferred by the customers. Let me hasten to add, most companies, especially in India will need to catch up with this new way of working, creating a new culture, soon.

Two interesting examples of medico-marketing during Covid Crisis:

There will be several examples in this area. However, to illustrate the point of creating a holistic ‘Customer Experience’ in the new normal, let me cite two examples of medic-marketing in this area, during Covid crisis. Coincidentally, both the examples are from the global pharma major Pfizer – the Company (along with BioNTech) that offered the first Covid-19 vaccine to the western world for public use under ‘Emergency Approval’ by the British drug regulator.

The first example is a website for Pfizer prescription medicine assistance program – called Pfizer RX Pathways. It mentions at the very top, ‘Pfizer recognizes the public concern in relation to COVID-19, which continues to evolve. Click here to learn how we are responding.’ When clicked, it takes the viewers to another website, where Pfizer says, ‘we are committed to helping keep people safe and informed.’

The second one tackles the uncertainty and anxiety that many people feel during the Covid pandemic – reassuring the viewers that “science will win.”  It starts with: “At a time when things are uncertain, we turn to the most certain thing there is—science. Science can overcome diseases, create cures and yes, beat pandemics. It has before; it will again.”

There are many other examples, including a social media series on Covid-19 of the Company, which help enhancing holistic ‘customer experience’ in the contemporary situation, for which the concerned companies’ brands are also rewarded by the customers.

Conclusion:

As of December 13, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,857,380 of new Coronavirus cases with 143,055 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection still looms large in many states. The good news is, at least, one Covid-19 vaccine is expected to be available in India within a month’s time. Meanwhile, as many people believe, when a company or an industry does most things right, as experienced by its customers, its reputation goes up, and vice versa. For example, the Gallup Poll, published around a year ago – on September 03, 2019 said: ‘The pharmaceutical industry is now the most poorly regarded industry in Americans’ eyes, ranking last on a list of 25 industries.’ Interestingly, similar Gallup Poll, published a year later – on September 08, 2020 noted, ‘the pharmaceutical industry’s image has improved modestly since last year, and it has yielded the “worst rated” distinction back to the federal government.’

So, something good must have happened during this one-year period, the most influential of which being Covid Pandemic. We have seen above, how some pharma players have repositioned themselves to provide a holistic ‘Customer Experience’, through innovative multichannel communication – being on the same page with customers. Medico-marketing approach played a stellar role in these efforts. As more healthcare customers get enlightened on their health and treatment needs by charting through the cyberspace, they are expected to lap-up such multichannel communication, alongside other equally cerebral pharma initiatives.

Undoubtedly, Covid pandemic is a triggering factor for this change, both among the healthcare customers and the pharma players. This trend is not going to disappear soon, as various top research studies have highlighted. Well-deserved pharma image and reputation boost has started gaining speed, following what some companies are demonstrating to customers during the Covid crisis. Pharma marketers, I believe, will not let go this never before opportunity to reposition their respective companies. It will help them achieve well-cherished brand excellence, supported by a robust Company image and reputation. As the good old saying has proved again to the pharma industry – even during the Covid pandemic, ‘as you sow, so shall you reap.’

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Taming Two Critical Covid Uncertainties For Pharma’s Sustainable Growth

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The reasons behind a great urgency of the Governments, besides high expectations of the general public, to have the ‘ultimate solution’ very soon, against the ongoing pandemic, are understandable. However, various media-hyped narratives on their clinical trials, and timeframe for expected launch – ranging from November this year to anytime in 2021, are making many experts to raise eyebrows on the scientific processes followed for Covid vaccine development.

Exact answers to the ultimate efficacy standard, safety profile and dates of their availability to the entire population, are still not clear – not even to many domain experts. Besides, two other critical and fundamental questions in India, are related to huge financial resources and other wherewithal, such as, countrywide stringent cold-chain logistics network, required to achieve this goal.

While effective, safe and high-quality vaccines, as and when these will come, will be pivotal to contain the alarming spread of Covid-19 – and that too in a wave after wave manner. Alongside, the intense search for effective anti-Covid medicines are also expected to come to fruition. Doctors will then have in their arsenals a number of highly effective alternatives, that can predictably cure individuals, when infected by this lethal virus.

It causes a great concern when someone asks, when will those days of great relief to all come? For, those days may or may not be very soon – could well be for an indefinite period. No one seems to know the answer, yet.

Until then, pharma companies can’t afford to remain in a ‘quick-fix mode’ to address the problems related to Covid related market and consumer mindset changes. Choosing this path could eventually prove to be very costly, especially for the lost time in leveraging some key opportunities. Moving in that direction, would entail rebuilding the organization by creating a new work-culture – a mindset to be all-time ready for any disruptive changes in business. Most importantly, if or as and when it comes, the organization should not get as overwhelmed, as is happening during the current global pandemic.

In this article, I shall deliberate the following two critical and interrelated Covid-19 issues:

  • The uncertainty in achieving what everybody is expecting to get right away – getting a preventive vaccine or a cure for the infected patients.
  • Inordinate delay in getting prompt medical care by many patients for non-Covid related serious ailments, leading to complexity of the disease. How long this situation will continue still remains uncertain.

As things stand today, these uncertainties could continue for an indefinite period, making some of the Covid related changes irreversible. Thus, my aim will be, first to recap where we are today with these niggles. And then, focusing on the crucial need to pave a balanced pathway – uncharted by anyone, for destination success – in the new world order. Let me begin with the first issue first.

The uncertainty in achieving what everybody is expecting:

Although, some Covid vaccines, reportedly, will be ready by early 2021, uncertainties and delays are still anticipated on the way. Some the reasons may include the following:

  • A critical challenge: About 5.6 billion people worldwide would need to be immune in order to end the pandemic (NEJM). Thus, vaccination process may take years to achieve the coverage necessary for everyone to be protected.
  • Huge investment required: India would need to invest between Rs 3,000 -5,000 crore to create additional facilities for making a huge number of vaccines, required for the Indian population. Currently no one has the capacity to manufacture it for 1.3 billion Indian populations. Moreover, vaccine alone is not the solution to the COVID-19 problem, according to experts.
  • High vaccine cost in India: As these vaccines come from a very difficult platform its cost is going to be significantly higher than many other vaccines, so there is going to be a requirement to think about how we are going to fund this.
  • Coronavirus mutating, potentially evolving: As reported on September 24, 2020, Covid’s continual mutation may make it increasingly contagious. The study says, it’s possible that when our population-level immunity gets high, this Coronavirus will find ways to get around our immunity.
  • The logistical challenge of a lifetime: Getting billions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines around the world quickly, would require 15,000 flights and 15 million cooling boxes. Stringent temperature control requirements for the vaccine supply chain must not be compromised at any point, not even in rural India. It’s worth noting, some of these vaccines may need to be kept at temperatures as low as -80 degrees Celsius. Currently, even in the developed world, the most efficient medical supply chain conventionally distributes vaccines at +2–8°C.
  • Vaccines may not provide complete protection: If COVID-19 re-infections are common, “vaccines might not completely protect against the virus” and would instead require a design similar to seasonal flu shots to protect from new variants. Interestingly. India may, reportedly, approve covid-19 vaccines that show 50 percent efficacy in clinical trials.

Converting problems into opportunities:

Such uncertainties may not only aggravate people’s overall health risks, but also their exposure to Covid infection. Drug companies, drug authorities and various Governments have been working hard on these issues. However, as flagged earlier, amid this health crisis, there is also another growing concern of a very serious nature. It pertains to many people delaying their non-Covid related medical care and medical interventions, for various reasons.

Pharmaceutical companies can convert this problem into a golden business opportunity with ‘patient-centric’ innovative strategies having a cutting-edge, and from a number of platforms. Let me illustrate this point with an interesting example of an initiative taken by a global pharma major, in this area.

A pace setting initiative:

On September 22, 2020, Fierce Pharma reported, ‘J&J wants everyone to know that taking care of their health can’t wait—even during a pandemic.’ This effort is based on the findings of a recent Harris Poll commissioned by them. This study revealed, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many Americans (68 percent) to delay healthcare treatment. It ranges from standard routine exams to important elective surgeries to ER visits – with physicians sharing concerns about the long-term impact of patients delaying care. The situation is expected to be no different in other countries of the world, including India.

Based on this finding Johnson & Johnson (J&J) have recently launched a US-based online initiative, aimed at giving both patients and physicians information and resources about health care options. This unique campaign has been named – “My Health Can’t Wait”.

By a statement J&J announced: “As the largest healthcare company in the world, we are committed to helping people live their healthiest lives, which means getting the care they need, when they need it.” It added: “Through My Health Can’t Wait, we hope to provide patients and healthcare providers with resources to help stay connected and prioritize their health care, both during this pandemic and in the future.” The point, especially take note of is, ‘both during this pandemic and in the future.’ This part of the above sentence of J&J, echoes the well-known management dictum – converting problem into opportunities, I add, even during the Covid pandemic.

I hope, many pharma players may also wish to pursue similar direction, responding to their own specific needs. But, not just to keep the head above water, in combating this unprecedented health crisis, but with a long-term strategic perspective – to rebuild the organization – for business excellence the new normal.

The concept reverberates:

I find the concept of ‘rebuilding the organization now, for business excellence the new normal’, reverberating in several expert voices. For example, The McKinsey ‘Briefing Note’ of September 16, 2020 – ‘COVID-19 and the great reset.’ It said: ‘The world anxiously awaits an effective COVID-19 vaccine that can be readily distributed. Until then, the priority is to re-energize organizations—to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term.’

The authors emphasized, ‘a crisis has a way of bringing things to a head.’ Many believe, the coming months might be the best opportunity in memory for healthcare companies to pursue exponential innovation. This, according to McKinsey, ‘could create an additional $400 billion in value by 2025. And now is the time to claim the hundreds of billions of dollars that could be saved through productivity gains.’

Thus, I reckon, apart from creating a great business compulsion of working harder to neutralize the short-term operational constraints, Covid pandemic also provides a unique opportunity to pharma leadership. It gives a space for them for thinking long-term, and from a strategic perspective. The aim is to rebuild the organization, placing it at a higher trajectory for success, in an uncharted frontier, thus far.

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, as on September 27, 2020 morning, India had recorded a staggering figure of 5,992,532 of Coronavirus cases with 94,534 deaths. The virus’s unprecedented onslaught on the country still continues, unabated. Be that as it may, coming back to where I started from, I reckon, pharma companies, in general, could play a stellar role in converting the dual problems of uncertainties into a number of opportunities. In that process, they can create a win-win situation for all, in the health care space.

The uncertainties related to scientifically proven, safe and effective Covid drugs and vaccines will, hopefully, be addressed – sometime, by the scientists and medical researchers. However, as the above McKinsey paper wrote: ‘Until then, the priority is to re-energize organizations – to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term.’ Thus, the second issue, needs to be creatively leveraged mostly by individual drug players, starting from now.

From this perspective, pharma leadership, will need to commit quality time of thinking people, supported by adequate resources, for conceiving and effectively implementing a ‘patient-centric’ strategy, that patients will fall for in the new normal. That being done, the top honchos, will require to roll up their sleeves to prioritize primary, secondary and tertiary action areas.

Instead of trying to do a little bit of everything, in all possible areas of Covid related changes in the market dynamics, ‘primary action areas’ ought to be the starting point, deploying all resources. And then, expand to the ‘secondary’ and ‘tertiary’ ones, in a well-calibrated manner. Evaluation of results and tightening the strategic loose knots, if any, should be an ongoing process. If implementation of the process requires handholding, so be it. Because, taming these two critical Covid related uncertainties, is intimately related to a sustainable growth for the pharma companies.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Honing Patient Outcomes With WHDs

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On November 01, 2019, San Francisco-based Fitbit, Inc. announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Google LLC for approximately US$ 2.1 billion. Many believe, though, the value of Fitbit lies in the health data that its wearables capture for its large base of users.

According to the CEO of Fitbit, currently the Fitbit brand supports more than 28 million active users around the globe who rely on these wearable products ‘to live a healthier, more active life.’ With Google’s resources and global platform, Fitbit will be able to accelerate innovation in the wearables category, scale faster, and make health even more accessible to everyone, he added.

The article – ‘The Real Reason Google Is Buying Fitbit,’ published in the Time magazine on November 04, 2019 makes some interesting points, such as the following:

  • The fast-growing healthcare tech space could be worth US$24 billion by 2020, says an estimate from Statista.
  • Although, Google has been working on cardiovascular health, diabetes and more, it hasn’t been publicly pushing healthcare as a business proposition, just yet.
  • Whereas, Google’s rivals, most notably Apple, have embraced healthcare as the next big battleground in the tech world, attracted by the promises of big profits for those who can help simplify a byzantine healthcare system.

Nonetheless, the Fitbit acquisition would facilitate Google’s entry into the Wearable Health Devices (WHDs) market in a big way, alongside other big players, such as, Apple and Samsung.

Driven by the most likely scenario of increasing usage and usefulness of WHDs, several pharma players are sniffing huge underlying commercial opportunity in this space, alongside being demonstrably patient-centric. Thus, my today’ article will deliberate whether or not WHDs will be able to offer a cutting edge to innovative drug marketers, by continually honing patient outcomes. Let me initiate this discussion by fathoming the importance of WHDs in the fast transforming digital world.

The importance of WHDs in the digital world:

‘Mary Meeker‘s 2019 Internet Trends Report’ highlights, about 51 percent of the global population is now connected to the internet, with the majority of users based in China, India and the United States. However, global internet user growth has slowed down by 6 percent and it’s becoming increasingly harder to get the rest of the world online.

In this background, especially - ‘As patients become more involved in making decisions about their health care, research shows, the result is increased satisfaction and improved health outcomes.’Consequently, the report spotlights healthcare digitization where consumer adoption of digital health tools is increasing rapidly. Some of the top areas, in terms of their speed of adoption, were listed as follows:

  • Online Health Information
  • Online Provider Reviews
  • Mobile Tracking
  • Wearables
  • Live Video Telemedicine

This gives a sense of how fast the WHDs are gaining importance for the consumers. Interestingly, Intouch Group also points out that wearables are now being used more to manage a diagnosis rather than just fitness trackers. Adding further, it pointed out – ‘Apple’s ResearchKit is an example of what CEO Tim Cook calls the “democratization of healthcare,” in that it provides health data directly to consumers so they can manage their health.’

A recent study on the scope of wearables: 

The scope of WHDs was aptly corroborated in a recent article – ‘The Rise of Wearable Technology in Health Care,’ published in the JAMA Network Open on February 01, 2019. The paper concludes, the general principle of commercially available ubiquitous wearable computers bodes well for our future ability to measure, track, and understand patient physiological data and behavior both in the hospital and at home.

The ability to capture such data, then applying machine learning to get the evolving health trends and sending alerts to patient accordingly – nurses, and physicians are instantaneously getting empowered to deliver patient outcomes. The fact that the alert can come easily via the patients’ smartphones that a significant part of the global population now carries with them, leading to further democratization of health care.

The Economist  also predicted, by 2020 – 80 percent of the adult population of the world would have a smartphone in their pocket. Therefore, this development opens up an entirely new world of real-time data acquisition, monitoring, and intervention, the paper underscored.

Giving a relevant example, it highlighted: ‘On December 6, 2018, Apple rolled out a software upgrade that turns the Apple Watch Series 4 into a personal electrocardiogram.’ The researchers further added, while WHDs’ fidelity may not yet exactly match medical-grade monitors and devices, these are “good enough” coupled with around-the-clock capabilities, real-time data capture, storage, and analytics and seem likely to provide real value.

The opportunities with WHDs:

Both from the health and business perspectives, WHDs are opening new vistas of opportunities for all stakeholders in the healthcare space, such as, patients, doctors, care providers and also pharma companies. This was enunciated in several studies, such as one, titled ‘Wearable Health Devices – Vital Sign Monitoring, Systems and Technologies,’ published by Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) on July 25, 2018.

This paper also reiterated: ‘Wearable Health Devices (WHDs) are increasingly helping people to better monitor their health status both at an activity/fitness level for self-health tracking and at a medical level providing more data to clinicians with a potential for earlier diagnosis and guidance of treatment. The technology revolution in the miniaturization of electronic devices is enabling to design more reliable and adaptable wearables, contributing to a world-wide change in the health monitoring approach.’

Thus, a big excitement is currently palpable around the technology related to WHDs. Many more opportunities are expected to unfold for continuation of the ascending trend. With the entry of big global tech giants such as, Apple and now Google, besides scores of small startups, WHDs of many types have started entering into the healthcare, carrying a promise to improving outcomes and creating a unique patient experience in the disease treatment process.

Improves outcomes, creates a unique disease treatment experience:

Echoing many other experts in this area, I also believe that WHDs have covered a lot of ground by now – expanding its usage from fitness trackers to diagnosis of disease and then monitoring the progress both during and after treatment. Current usages of WHDs are mostly for non-infectious chronic diseases, such as diabetes, cardiovascular conditions, sleeping disorders, obesity and treatment compliance, besides others. The list is gradually expected to expand.

Apparently, encouraged by this trend, more pharma players are now moving into this area for significant brand value for augmentation through better patient outcomes – apace with providing a unique disease treatment experience for suffering individuals.

The scope in India:

As WHDs have a close link with both Internet and Smartphone penetration, let me try to weigh the potential of the wearables, in view of the current status of both in the country.

According to the India Internet 2019 Report by Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), the following three points are indeed noteworthy, besides others:

  • With 451 million monthly active internet users at the end of financial year 2019, India is now second only to China in this regard.
  • Urban India with 192 million users had almost the same number of users as rural India. However, in terms of percentages or penetration, given the disparity of population distribution in urban and rural India, urban India had a considerably higher penetration level.
  • In rural India, a sizable portion does not have access to the Internet, and provides a huge opportunity for growth which will contribute to an increase in the overall Internet population over the next few years, it said.

Similarly, according to the Statista report, for 2017, the number of smartphone users in India was estimated to reach 299.24 million, with the number of smartphone users worldwide forecast to exceed 2.3 billion users by that time, and was projected to be nearly 2.7 billion by 2019.

These numbers speak for themselves on the underlying opportunities of WHDs – both globally and locally. Accordingly, large pharma players have already started teaming up to deliver better patient outcomes, leveraging the value of WHDs.

Pharma players teaming up to deliver better patient outcomes with WHD:

There are several such examples. Nevertheless, to illustrate the point, let me cite one such recent instance of Abbott Laboratories announcing a deal on February 20, 2019 with Novo Nordisk to make diabetes management easier by linking technologies of the two companies. The deal will allow integration of insulin dose data for Novo Nordisk’s pre-filled and connected pens with its ‘FreeStyle’ Libre mobile app and cloud-based system.

‘Abbott’s ‘FreeStyle’ Libre Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) system will read glucose levels through a sensor that can be worn on the back of the upper arm eliminating the need for routine finger pricks. Through the FreeStyle LibreLink app users can capture and view their real-time glucose levels, their eight-hour glucose history, and how their glucose is currently changing on their smartphone.’

Yet another report highlighted, ‘Google sister-company Verily is teaming with big pharma on clinical trials.’ On May 21, 2019, the company announced strategic alliances with the pharmaceutical companies Novartis, Sanofi, Otsuka and Pfizer to help it move more deeply into the medical studies market. The goals for Verily, and its pharma partners, are to reach patients in new ways, make it easier to enroll and participate in trials, and aggregate data across a variety of sources, including the electronic medical record or health-tracking wearable devices,’ the report emphasized.

Conclusion:

It seems clear that in the rapidly transforming digital world, many drug companies are realizing the criticality of making their business operations sine qua non with the evolving trend is essential. This is not just for the organization progress, but also for long-term survival of the business. In the midst of this exciting technological environment, the potential value of WHDs to deliver better patient outcomes is being brought to the fore, primarily by the pure tech companies.

Figuring out the magnitude of the new opportunity, several pharma companies have thrown their hats in the ring, primarily in the form of collaborative deals. This ushers in a new phase in the healthcare space. Mostly because, such initiatives will have to be patient-centric for providing a unique patient experience with the drugs, in the disease treatment process. As India too, is taking rapid strides for penetration of digital technology in its ‘Health for All’ initiatives, the use of WHDs for better and cost-effective patient outcomes isn’t a pipe dream, any longer.

The evolving scenario, therefore, opens yet another door for the pharma players to grow their business, not just with drugs offering differential value, but also by making even a ‘me-too’ drug perform better, leveraging the potential of WHDs, effectively. From this perspective, continuously honing patient outcomes with WHDs, appears to be a unique tool for pharma marketers to make use of – in search of excellence.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Deadly Climate Change Impact On Human Health: How Prepared Is India?

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It’s not uncommon to find many people, including heads of countries, expressing their serious apprehensions in public, about the scary impact of climate change. Just the last year, on November 26, 2018, BBC News captured one of such incidences with the astonishing headline: “Trump on climate change report: I don’t believe it.” The findings of this report have underscored, ‘unchecked global warming would wreak havoc on the US economy.’

Similarly, a few years ago, on September 05, 2014,CNN News 18 quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi as saying: “Climate has not changed. We have changed. Our habits have changed,’ while answering to a question on climate change. Regardless of the outcome of any split-hair analysis of the rationale behind such statements from the world leaders, such public discourse could trivialize the possible catastrophic impact of climate change on the planet earth.

Be that as it may, that climate change is taking place, carrying all its ill-effects, is real now, without any ambiguity. There is also widespread consensus among the members of the United Nations that ‘the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented during post hunter-gatherer human existence.’

It is worth noting that way back in 2001, the ‘Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’, further recorded: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities”, most importantly the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

Several ‘International Agreements’, including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change - all supported by hard scientific data, have called for immediate, quantifiable measures in each country to address the ‘wide-ranging environmental threats, such as ozone depletion and long-range transboundary air pollution.’ Against this backdrop, in this article, I shall focus on the dreadful effect of climate change in the proliferation of a wide-variety of ailments, especially infectious diseases, within a few decades. While doing so, let me first have a quick recap on what is ‘Climate Change’, in a simple language.

Climate Change – a quick recap:

According to the United Nations, ‘Climate Change is the defining issue of our time and we are at a defining moment. From shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.’

It’s important to note, although, the planet Earth’s climate is constantly changing over geological time, the current period of warming is occurring more rapidly than many past events. Scientists are concerned that the natural fluctuation or variance, is being overtaken by a rapid human-induced warming, as they emit more greenhouse gases. As these gases get trapped in the atmosphere, more heat is retained that has serious implications for the stability of the planet’s climate, even impacting human health with grave consequences. The World Health Organization (W.H.O) has also warned that the health of millions could be threatened by increases in malaria, waterborne disease and malnutrition.

Its impact human health:

The direct and indirect impact of climate change on human health is profound. Before I go into the specifics, let me indicate some of the direct ones, as captured by the Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington. This is sans any charts and maps, unlike the usual practice:

  • Increasing temperatures are causing poor air quality that can affect the heart and worsen cardiovascular disease.
  • Increasing exposure to pollen, molds, and air pollution, all of which can worsen allergies and other lung diseases, such as asthma.
  • Changes in the geographic range of disease-carrying insects, such as mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and other similar ones, which can fast spread many tropical ailments, such as dengue fever and malaria to humans.
  • Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events can cause, besides many physical illnesses, several kinds of mental illnesses – increasing both morbidity and mortality.
  • Frequent flooding events and sea level rise can contaminate water with harmful pathogens and chemicals, potentially causing food-borne and waterborne illnesses.
  • Changing weather patterns affect the quality and quantity of nutritious foods with increasing incidence of under-nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies.
  • Additional stress placed on hospital and public health systems, could limit people’s ability to obtain adequate health care during extreme weather events and disease outbreaks.

Most specific and the deadly one:

The World Health Organization (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses,’ clearly flagged that ‘Changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change.’

Citing a pertinent analogy to explain the reason, it said: “Humans have known that climatic conditions affect epidemic diseases from long before the role of infectious agents was discovered, late in the nineteenth century. Roman aristocrats retreated to hill resorts each summer to avoid malaria. South Asians learnt early that, in high summer, strongly curried foods were less likely to cause diarrhea.”

Would pharma players convert these problems into opportunities?

Curiously, some pharmaceutical investors are researching to fathom potential business opportunities lying underneath the above problem, especially for vaccines and newer antimicrobials. It’s probably a blessing in disguise not just for the drug companies, but also for the general public, considering the following two issues, prevailing in the current scenario:

  • According to W.H.O, Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is an increasingly serious threat to global public health. It threatens the effective prevention and treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi, causing the success of even major surgery and cancer chemotherapy seriously compromised.
  • ‘Pharmaceutical companies are backing away from a growing threat that could kill 10 million people a year by 2050’, reported a July 19, 2018 article. This is because, ‘Antibiotics Aren’t Profitable Enough for Big Pharma to Make More,’ wrote another article, published in Bloomberg Businessweek, on May 3, 2019.

Interestingly, a recent report analyzed and evaluated how this can be done, and which companies will be benefitted most in that process. 

“Climate change to fetch a big business opportunity for pharma”:

As reported on July 25, 2019, Morgan Stanley told investors that climate change will cause an increased prevalence and rapid spread of infectious diseases that may be a boon for some drug companies with big vaccine portfolios. It also highlighted, between 383 million and 725 million more people may be exposed to Zika, dengue and other diseases by 2050, depending on the pace and severity of global warming.

The analysts estimated, especially 7 pharma companies will be critical to fighting infectious diseases brought on by climate change. According to the research note of thebank, ‘the USD 500 billion infectious disease market could see demand for an added USD 125 billion in new vaccines, or as much as USD 200 billion assuming premium pricing for more complex new treatments.’

The top possible gainers:

Identifying the top possible gainers, Morgan Stanley apprised, vaccine development being more difficult and expensive, companies that are already in that business will have an upper hand.

Hence, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline are expected at the top, given their existing pipelines and manufacturing capacity. Takeda and Merck both have vaccines in the works for dengue fever, one of the diseases that climate change is likely to exacerbate. Janssen and Pfizer are both active in the vaccines market, but would need to establish new research programs to take on tropical diseases. ‘Moderna’ is also in a good position because it has demonstrated a potential pipeline for drugs combating the Zika virus., as Morgan Stanley further elaborated.

Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley isn’t the only bank looking at investment opportunities from climate change, on July 24, 2019, Goldman Sachs also, reportedly, said it was hiring a sustainable-finance group that is looking into issues related to sustainability. Thus, on the positive side, climate change could fetch a big business opportunity for many pharma players, across the world.

600 million people at risk for climate change in India:

On June 24, 2019, a reputed national business news daily of India reported, “600 million people at risk: Climate change may soon turn critical in India.” Against this threat, the current public health care infrastructure in the country, continues to remain fragile, as stated in India’s National Health Profile, 13th Issue.

It also states, the cost of treatment has been on the rise in India and it has led to inequity in access to health care services. Intriguingly, the country spends around 1.02 percent of its GDP towards public health, which has remained static to declining over a long period of time. Although, health insurance is a growing segment, it hasn’t taken off fully. Several measures are needed to improve and expand insurance coverage.

Further, according to the report by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) in the US, India is facing shortage of 600,000 doctors and 2 million nurses. This report was widely quoted by the Indian media, on April 14, 2019.

These facts give a perspective on what is India’s level of preparedness to address the critical health issues related to climate change, especially the havoc that the dreaded infectious diseases can cause to so many.

Conclusion:

Astute health policy makers, including a large section of the top political echelon of the country are, apparently, aware of various ill effects of climate change. They also seem to be cognizant that these are likely to accelerate the worsening health problems of the population, including infectious diseases, asthma and other respiratory diseases.

Assuming, new and modern drugs will keep coming to help treat these ailments, do we have a functioning and efficient public health infrastructure to grapple with such issues. What about high out of pocket expenditure towards healthcare for a large section of the population, regardless of Ayushman Bharat?

As the (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses’ recommended, ‘early planning for health is essential to reduce, hopefully avoid, near future and long-term health impacts of global climate change. The optimal solution, however, is in the hands of governments, society and every individual—a commitment to a change in values, to enable a full transition to sustainable development.’

That said, as India is also a signatory to the latest Paris Agreement on Climate Change, can we assume, India will walk the talk to significantly contain its deadly impact on human health? How is India preparing itself to meet this great challenge of Probably it is anybody’s guess, at least, as on date?

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Biosimilars: Creating new vistas of opportunities for Indian Bio Pharmaceutical players in the global market.

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Biosimilar or follow-on biologic drugs market is fast evolving across the world with varying degree of pace and stages of developments. The global market for Bio-pharmaceuticals was around US$ 120 billion in 2008, as reported by IMS. However, total turnover of Biosimilar drugs in the regulated markets during the same period was just US$ 60 million.

Currently about 25% of New Molecular Entities (NMEs) under development are of biotech origin. Indian pharmaceutical majors like Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Reliance Life Science, Shantha Biotech, Ranbaxy, Biocon, Wockhardt and Glenmark have made good investments in biotech drugs manufacturing facilities keeping an eye on the emerging opportunities with Biosimilar drugs in the developed markets of the world.

International Scenario:

Internationally most known companies in the Biosimilar drugs space are Teva, Stada, Hospira and Sandoz.

The first R&D focused global pharmaceutical company that expressed interest in this space is Merck & Co. In December 2008 Merck announced creation of ‘Merck Bio Venture’ for this purpose with an investment commitment of around US$ 1.5 billion by 2015.

Other large research based global innovator pharmaceutical companies, which so far have expressed interest in the field of Biosimilar drugs are Pfizer, Astra Zeneca and Eli Lilly.

Future market Potential:

IMS Health, July 2009 reports that only in the US from 2009 to 2013 about 8 major biologic products like for example, Enbrel (Amgen/J&J), Lovenox (Sanofi-Aventis), Zoladex (AstraZeneca), Mabthera (Roche), Humalog (Eli Lilly) and Novorapid (Novo Nordisk) are expected to go off patent. The sum total of revenue from these drugs will be over U.S$ 15 billion.

This throws open immense opportunities for the Indian companies working on Biosimilar drug development initiatives.

Regulatory pathway for Biosimilar drugs:

Currently EU is the largest Biosimilar market in the world. Immense healthcare cost containment pressure together with a large number of high value biologics going off patent during next five years, especially in the developed western markets like US and EU, are creating a new vista of opportunities in this field to the potential players.

Regulatory pathway for Biosimilar drugs exists in the European Union (EU) since 2005. In the USA President Barak Obama administration has already expressed its clear intention to have similar pathway established in the country through the US-FDA, which is expected to come by 2010.

Steps taken by the Indian pharmaceutical companies towards this direction:

Biosimilar version of Rituxan (Rituximab) of Roche used in the treatment of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma has already been developed by DRL in India. Last year Rituxan clocked a turnover of over US$ 2 billion. DRL also has developed filgastrim of Amgen, which enhances production of white blood-cell by the body, and markets the product as Grafeel in India. Similarly Ranbaxy has collaborated with Zenotech Laboratories to manufacture G-CSF. Meanwhile Biocon of Bangalore has commenced clinical trial of Insugen for the regulated markets like EU.

On the other hand Glenmark is planning to come out with its first biotech product by 2010 from its biological research establishment located in Switzerland.

Within Biopharmaceuticals the focus is on Oncology:

Within Biopharmaceuticals many of these domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies are targeting Oncology disease area, which is estimated to be the largest segment with a value turnover of over US$ 55 billion by 2010 growing over 17%. As per recent reports about 8 million deaths take place all over the world per year due to cancer. May be for this reason the research pipeline of NMEs is dominated by oncology with global pharmaceutical majors’ sharp R&D focus and research spend on this particular therapy area. About 50 NMEs for the treatment of cancer are expected to be launched in the global markets by 2015.

Indian market for oncology products:

Current size of the Indian oncology market is around US$ 18.6 million, which is expected to be over US$ 50 million by the end of 2010; the main reason being all these are and will be very expensive products. Biocon has just launched its monoclonal antibody based drug BIOMAb-EGFR for treating solid tumours with an eye to introduce this product in the western markets, as soon as they can get regulatory approval from these countries. Similarly, Ranbaxy with its strategic collaboration with Zenotech Laboratories is planning to market oncology products in various markets of the world like Brazil, Mexico, CIS and Russia.

Conclusion:

As the R&D based global innovator companies are now expanding into the Biosimilar space, many Indian domestic pharmaceutical companies are also poised to leverage their R&D initiatives on Biosimilars drugs development to fully encash the emerging global opportunities in this space. It is quite prudent for the Indian players to focus on the Oncology therapy area, as it is now the fastest growing segment in the global pharmaceutical industry.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

A brief history of the Indian Patent System from Indian Pharmaceutical Industry perspective, the concerns and opportunities.

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Although a comprehensive Act on Patents and Designs allowing product patents of drugs came into force in India in 1911, the first Patents Act of India was enacted in 1856.This Act gave a head start to the global pharmaceutical companies in this business primarily through imports into India. As a result, in no time the global pharmaceutical companies curved out a sizeable chunk of the Indian pharmaceutical market capturing over 80% of the total domestic consumption of drugs and pharmaceuticals.It has been reported that in 1959 an American Senate Committee headed by Senator Kefauver wrote in its report:

“…in drugs, generally, India ranks amongst the highest priced nations of the world”.

In 1970 the Indian Patents Act was amended abolishing the product patent system, based on ‘Ayyangar Committee report, 1959’, which examined the factors influencing the high prices of the drugs and pharmaceuticals in India and concluded:

“.. high prices resulted from the monopoly control foreign based pharmaceutical companies exercised over the production of drugs.”

The Indian Patent Act of 1970 was, once again, amended under the TRIPS agreement and the Indian Patents Act, 2005 came into force effective January 1, 2005 , re-introducing product patents for the drugs and pharmaceuticals, as a part of the globalization process of the country including the pharmaceutical industry of India.

This is perhaps the testimony of India’s realization that research and development is the bed rock for the progress of pharmaceutical industry in any country in the long run, as this industry, unlike many other industries, relies quite heavily on product patents.

Indian Pharmaceutical Industry to build on its acquired strength:

Reverse engineering with high calibre skills in process chemistry emerged as one of the key strengths of the domestic Indian pharmaceutical industry since 1970. The industry has to build on this strength and move towards ‘incremental innovation model’ of R&D, which is less expensive and more cost effective starting with a known substance, to meet the unmet needs of the patients.

The product patent regime has given a boost to pharmaceutical R&D in India:

Many medium to large Indian pharmaceutical companies, like Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy’s Lab (DRL) and Glenmark etc. have already started shifting their focus on R&D. The large number of patent applications filed by these companies to the Indian patent offices will vindicate this point. As a result of the new focus, one observes business initiatives like, spinning off the R&D units into a separate company and many R&D driven mergers and acquisitions by these domestic Indian companies.

R&D investments are also being made in traditional chemistry based screening. Moreover, companies like Biocon, Panacea Biotech, and Bharat Biotech etc. have engaged themselves in the space of biotechnology research.

Increasing opportunity to collaborate with the global companies:

Increasingly more and more Indian companies have started collaborating with the global companies in collaborative research and cost efficient process development to leverage their human capital and infrastructural facilities. The collaborative arrangement towards this direction between GSK and Ranbaxy provides a good example.

Contract research and manufacturing:

Some other domestic companies like Divi’s Lab, Suven Pharma, Dishman Pharma, Piramal Healthcare, Shasun Chemicals, Jubilant Organosys etc. are moving into the space of contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) establishing world class facilities and collaborating with the global players like, GSK, Pfizer, Merck, Eli Lilly, Bayer, Sanofi Aventis, Novartis etc.

Public-Private Partnership (PPP) in R&D:

Initiatives by the Indian companies in collaborative research with government research institutes like CSIR and NIPER have already commenced, though much lesser in number. Some companies like, Shasun have already derived benefits in the field of biotechnology out of such collaborative research under PPP. It is expected that more such projects will see the light of the day in not too distant future.

Some concerns in the new regime:

Some serious concerns are being raised as the country is in the process of settling down in the new paradigm. The key concern is about the affordability of patented products by those who are currently having access to other modern medicines.

To address such concerns related to public health issues in general, there are already provisions in the TRIPS agreement for price control of patented products.

At the same time, one finds, the government has exempted those patented products from price control, which are domestically produced with indigenous R&D. Many feel that these differential measures will not help improving affordability and access to such patented medicines by the common man.

Keeping prices of essential medicines under the lens of price regulator is more important:

Even over last sixty years of independence, the access to modern medicines in India is meager 35 percent. 65 percent of the nation’s population does not have any access even to off patent essential drugs. In a country like India where there is no adequate social security cover towards healthcare, it will be important to keep the prices of essential medicines for treating common diseases under the close vigil of the drug price regulator.

Will the prices of medicines spiral in the product patent regime of India?

While addressing this question one will need to keep in mind that around 98 percent of drugs, which are generic or branded generic, manufactured in India and costs cheaper than their equivalents available even in our neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, will continue to remain unaffected. Hence, it is very unlikely that prices of such medicines will go up significantly because of the new product patent regime in India.

Conclusion:

The key concerns raised in the new product patent regime are that it will further deteriorate the current poor access to modern medicines to a vast majority of the population.

It is undeniable that one of the key reasons for poor access to essential medicines in India is lack of buying power of a large number of both rural and urban poor. This problem gets compounded by the poor public health infrastructure, delivery system and financing system, despite sporadic initiatives taken by the government towards this direction.

To be successful in the new regime by improving access to modern medicines to those who do not have means to satisfy such basic needs, the country should take a rational and holistic approach in this matter. It is high time for all the stakeholders to ponder and flesh-out the real factors, which have been responsible for such a dismal rate of access to modern medicines to a huge 65 percent of the country’s population over decades, even when the product patent law was not in place in the country.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion

CRAMS opportunities – India is strongly poised, a time to leverage

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Cost containment pressures due to various factors have prompted the global pharmaceutical companies to contract out various research related and manufacturing activities, over a period of time, from Europe and North America to low cost destinations like India and China. Such activities started gaining momentum before the turn of the new millennium and have now emerged as huge business opportunities to many domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies. This lucrative business opportunity of ‘Contract Research and manufacturing Services’ is now popularly known in its abbreviated form CRAMS.

Many global pharmaceutical companies have already engaged themselves in the CRAMS space with India and some of them have commenced the pilot programs and are seriously contemplating to offshore a significant part of their research related and manufacturing operations in India.

The Market Size:

Global market for CRAMS was around U.S. $ 55.47 billion in 2007 and is expected to be of U.S $ 76 billion by 2010 with a CAGR of 10%.

Contract research market alone was U.S $16.58 billion with a CAGR of 13.8% and contract manufacturing at U.S $38.89 billion accounted for around 70% of the total global pharmaceutical CRAMS market, according to a study done by Piribo, a Business Intelligence Organization.

According to ASSOCHAM, CRAMS market in India was valued at U.S $532.10 million in 2005, of which contract manufacturing accounted for 84% of the total market and the remaining 16% came from contract research excluding clinical trials, with a growth of over 40% over the previous year.

According to Frost & Sullivan, contract research market in India is estimated to be around U.S $ 1 billion by end 2010.

Preparation started much earlier – unknowingly:

In 1970 when product patent law was abolished to encourage domestic Indian companies to manufacture and market low cost modern medicines in the country, the skill sets to make the best use of this opportunity started developing at a faster pace. Brilliant chemists of India got encouragement to hone their reverse engineering and efficient manufacturing process development skills, which are of immense importance to manufacture low cost medicines in the country. Availability of skilled and high quality technical talent pool at much lower costs together with capital efficiency of the local entrepreneurs further helped the country to acquire cutting edge expertise in the CRAMS space.

CRAMS – not just a bed of roses:

Days of struggle:

CRAMS business cannot be developed overnight. It needs months, if not years of negotiation and fulfilling all technical, financial and regulatory requirements of the innovator companies to commence business.

Days of continuity:

Since financial costs are high and regulatory requirements are stringent to switch over to new outsourcing arrangements, there are very good chances that once CRAMS business is commenced, the partnership with innovator companies will continue for a long time, unless any breach in the supply agreement takes place.

Days of nightmares:

All offshore supply contracts need to be successfully executed within the given timeframe. If not, relationship with the innovator companies may get strained. At the same time, if the innovator company fails to take delivery of the custom made material from the CRAMS partner, costly inventory at the manufacturing location will pile up and consequently precious working capital will get blocked, adversely impacting the manufacturing capacity utilization.

Operating margin:

In CRAMS business operating margins are usually quite good. For patented products margins are generally higher than the products which have gone off patent. The volume of business in CRAMS usually picks up over a period of time.

Contract Research:

While developing a New Chemical Entity (NCE), the research based pharmaceutical companies need smaller quantities of variety of intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). As the NCE gradually passes through various advancing stages of clinical developmental processes, quantity requirements of such material also increases.

Contract Research outfits develop and deliver such smaller quantities of specific chemicals and intermediates to the innovator companies through custom chemical synthesis (CCS), which usually attracts relatively higher margin .

Although in India early and late stages contract research services are doing well, the segments like medicinal chemistry and bioinformatics with high business potential have not been adequately tapped, as yet.

Key areas of outsourcing in future are expected to be:

• Genomics
• Screening technology platforms
• Therapeutics

Contract Manufacturing:

Contract Manufacturing market for pharmaceuticals spans across mainly USA, Europe and Asia. The market is segmented into solid, liquid and injectable dosage forms. Although sold dosage form covers almost 50% of the total market, injectable forms are registering the fastest growth and the liquid dosage forms being the laggard.

Contract manufacturing in India involves both patented and off-patent APIs and formulations manufactured with world class standards conforming to international regulatory norms like the US-FDA, MHRA- UK, TGA – Australia and EMEA.

India, with more than 100 US FDA-approved manufacturing facilities, is one of the most preferred locations for outsourcing manufacturing services by the global pharmaceutical companies.

Companies like, Divi’s Labs, Jubilant Organosys, Dishman, Piramals, Shasun, Cadila healthcare, Aurobindo are gradually establishing themselves as strong CRAMS players having large global pharmaceutical companies like, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Wyeth, Eli Lilyy, Astra Zeneca, Pfizer as their major clients.

Competition:

In the CRAMS space the key competitor to India is undoubtedly China driven by its economies of scale. Overall manufacturing costs in China, be it labour or power, are much less than India. This has already made China a formidable competitor to India in majority of the bulk drugs and intermediates. Even, many domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies now source their raw materials from China.

Pharmaceutical manufacturers in China, over a period of time, have become quite proficient in filing Drug Master Files (DMF) and Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDAs). Together with significant cost advantage, China has started making huge progress to capture a sizable share of CRAMS business from the developed markets of the world. Along with China, countries like South Korea and Taiwan are also making considerable progress in this field.

To combat with this threat some Indian pharmaceutical companies have started setting up their businesses in China, collaborating and even acquiring stakes in the Chinese pharmaceutical companies. This process is expected to accelerate further in future.

Conclusion:

CRAMS business in India is expected to grow at a rapid pace and offer relatively high operating margins to the Indian pharmaceutical companies. As a result, companies of various scales of operations with interest in CRAMS business, have started initiating all possible measures to prove themselves as the best option for offshore activities of the global players. All these companies are trying to leverage the wide diversity of the country, rich English speaking talent pool and strong manufacturing base in pharmaceuticals created over last four decades. Thus it appears that capturing at least 10% of the global CRAMS market by 2015 may not be a big deal for India.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.