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Indian Pharma Leadership: A Glimpse of Changing Mindset Post Pandemic

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A recent survey of physicians, published by the CMI Media Group, provides fresh evidence that Medical Representatives meetings with the physicians that have become trickier to arrange since COVID-19, still continue. This was also reported in the March 29, 2023, edition of Fierce Pharma.  

The survey objective was to capture what are physicians’ preferences, when asked whether they want to meet with pharmaceutical reps in person more often, less often or in equal frequency as pre-pandemic. Some of the key findings of this recent study include the following: 

  • 25% of the doctors, reportedly said they are reducing face-to-face interactions.
  • With 10% of doctors responding never seeing reps, it could be challenging for many pharma players to call on these doctors via the traditional in-person route. 
  • However, another 51% of physicians replied that the frequency of their in-person interactions is unchanged from pre-pandemic and 14% seeing reps more frequently than before. 
  • It also found that digital channels have potential to compensate for the pullback from in-person meetings.  
  • Most of such doctors prefer receiving resources for talking to reps via video or phone. 
  • Interestingly, 70% and 78% of physicians said digital resources are more convenient, educational and valuable than remote rep visits. 

Let me hasten to add that the above study was carried out mostly in the European countries. Thus, in today’s deliberation, I would focus mainly on two areas:

1. How is this situation evolving in India and the way some of the Indian majors are gearing up to convert this challenge into opportunities to gain a competitive edge, and 

2. What, in my view, needs to be a pharma marketing leadership mindset change, alongside its traits for effective change management, to excel in the changing market dynamics. More importantly, whether or not this trend is also visible within some of the Indian pharma majors.

The comparable situation in India:

I find some interesting data on the Indian pharma industry in this regard, from several public domain. These indicate that while some physicians may be open to virtual interactions with medical representatives during and after the COVID pandemic, there are also examples of physicians who were not too keen to meet with pharma reps. These seem to be for several reasons. Some reported examples are as follows:

  • Delhi Medical Association (DMA), which represents more than 15,000 doctors in the Indian capital, has banned pharma med reps from entering hospitals or meeting with doctors in person. The DMA has cited concerns about the influence of pharma reps on prescribing practices, besides potential conflict of interest.
  • With over 3.5 lakh memberships, the Indian Medical Association (IMA) appears to have discouraged physicians from meeting with MRs. Instead, the association has urged them to rely on evidence-based information and guidelines while prescribing drugs to patients.
  • Some private hospital chains in India have also restricted or banned pharmaceutical sales representatives from interacting with physicians. This includes Fortis Healthcare, which has banned pharma reps from its hospitals in Delhi and Mumbai, and Max Healthcare, which has restricted interactions to virtual meetings only. 
  • The Indian Psychiatric Society (IPS) has issued guidelines for its members recommending that they avoid interactions with pharma med reps. The IPS has stated that interactions with pharma reps can create conflicts of interest and bias in prescribing practices and may not always provide accurate and reliable information.
  • Some physicians in India are increasingly turning to online platforms to access unbiased information about medications and treatments, rather than relying on information provided by reps. Online platforms such as Medscape and Docplexus provide physicians with access to up-to-date medical information and peer-reviewed research studies.

With a changing mindset, some Indian players are facing this challenge:

Evidence suggests that there is a growing awareness among several physicians in India about the potential biases and conflicts of interest that can arise from interactions with pharma representatives. While virtual interactions and non-promotional information may still be acceptable to some physicians, others may prefer to rely on more objective sources of information or avoid interactions with pharma reps altogether. 

There are several examples in this area highlighting how some Indian pharma majors are trying to stay ahead of the technology curve. As reported, some specific responses of Indian pharmaceutical companies to the restrictions on interactions with physicians

include, Cipla’s launch of a digital platform called CiplaMed to provide healthcare professionals with access to non-promotional medical information and education.

Post-pandemic changes in the mindset and outlook of marketing leadership:

As I see, the COVID pandemic experience has brought significant changes in the mindset and outlook, especially, in the marketing leadership of several Indian drug companies. One key reason could be the success requirements in contemporary pandemic market dynamics are going through a metamorphosis. Which is why the emerging situation demands new approaches and strategies for success.  

Many pharma marketing leaders are now trying for early identification of even the nuanced change requirements relevant to their respective organizations for sustainable business success in the current paradigm. Some of these requirements were identified as:

Agility and Adaptability: The pandemic has highlighted the importance of being agile and adaptable. Pharma marketing leaders must now be able to quickly pivot their strategies and tactics based on changing market conditions and consumer needs.

For example, Cipla adapted quickly to the changing market conditions during the pandemic by ramping up the production of essential medicines and medical supplies. The company also developed innovative product solutions, such as a portable mechanical ventilator, to address the critical shortage of medical equipment during the pandemic. 

Similarly, Lupin demonstrated agility by diversifying its product portfolio to include COVID-19 testing kits, PPE, and other pandemic-related products, besides helping to develop innovative solutions to address the pandemic, such as a telemedicine platform that enables patients to consult with doctors remotely. 

Digitalization: The pandemic has accelerated the shift towards digitalization in the pharma industry. Marketing leaders must be able to effectively leverage digital channels such as social media, online advertising, and telemedicine to reach and engage with consumers.

For instance, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories leveraged digital technologies to enhance its customer engagement efforts. The company developed a mobile app called - ‘Medznat.’ It is touted as a one-stop solution for physicians, medical students and other healthcare professionals to stay abreast with the latest medical knowledge. It offers an umbrella of offerings, such as news, scientific articles, case studies, regulatory updates, medical events, drug flashcards, and many more. The app offers some key features, such as: personalized quality content, any time, anywhere and patient education materials.

Customer-centricity: The pandemic has increased the need for customer-centricity in the pharma industry. Marketing leaders must now prioritize customer needs and preferences and tailor their marketing strategies accordingly.

Sun Pharma appears to be another leading example that, reportedly, demonstrated customer-centricity by developing patient assistance programs that provide financial support to patients who cannot afford their medications. The company also partnered with healthcare providers to develop disease management programs that improve patient outcomes and reduce healthcare costs.

Data Analytics: The pandemic has highlighted the importance of leveraging data science and data analytics in the pharma industry. Marketing leaders must be able to effectively analyze data to understand customer behavior and preferences and to measure the effectiveness of their marketing campaigns. 

The name of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals comes to the top of mind in this area. The Company is now using data analytics to analyze sales data and identify trends in the market. The company is also using analytics to track physician interactions and ensure compliance with government regulations.

Continuous Innovation: The pandemic has created new opportunities for innovation in the marketing domain. Thus, marketing leaders must be willing to experiment with new approaches and technologies to stay ahead of the competition and meet changing customer needs.

As is known to many, Zydus Cadila has developed a COVID-19 vaccine and has also been working on the development of a COVID-19 drug. The company has also been involved in the development of new drugs to treat various other diseases.

Collaboration: The pandemic has underscored the need for collaboration across the healthcare ecosystem. Pharma marketing leaders need to work closely with other stakeholders, including healthcare providers, payers, patient advocacy groups, and government agencies, to develop solutions that meet the needs of all stakeholders.

In this area, Biocon, for instance, collaborated with government agencies and NGOs to distribute COVID-19 vaccines and treatments to underserved communities. The company also worked with healthcare providers and patient advocacy groups to develop education and awareness campaigns that promote better health outcomes.

Similarly, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories partnered with IQVIA to rollout IQVIA’s OCE application to its entire field force and marketing users in India to drive more meaningful and impactful customer engagement.

 Conclusion: 

These are a few areas with examples from a few Indian pharma majors that would give a sense of how the mindset and outlook of their marketing leadership teams are changing. This is happening, as is widely believed, after having experienced the last two years’ unprecedented disruptions in business and customer behavior.

It’s equally interesting to note that our domestic drug industry, which was not traditionally well known for effecting significant proactive changes – is transforming itself while stepping into the post-pandemic world – in pursuit of excellence. 

By: Tapan J. Ray        

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Shape of Future Pharma Operations – Emerging A Pragmatic Outlook?

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Just as newer reports come almost every day on safety, efficacy, dosage interval or span of immunity of Covid vaccines, similar reports are also reaching us about the possible future shape of pharma sales and marketing operations. Some hardcore optimists, apparently more from India, still believe that current changes in pharma customer behavior are mostly transient. All business processes will eventually fall in their traditional grooves, as the Covid menace disappears from our lives soon.

No doubt, several studies are also bringing out a number of respondent doctors’ preferences on reverting to F2F engagements, programs and events. Nonetheless, most other experts, including several large global pharma majors, believe that the future shape of business operations won’t be quite the same as the past. There are better ways to be more effective, leveraging the changing environment. Accordingly, they have initiated actions, reimagining the pathway of new operational frontiers. In this article, I shall explore the evolving pragmatic outlook in just two of these action areas:

  • The new and unique role of medical representatives
  • Digital health care solutions as a new growth opportunity

New role of medical representatives:

A recent survey published by Reuters Events Pharma on December 18, 2020, revealed that 30% of the respondents still expect that Medical Reps’ (MR) face-to-face access to HCPs would return to the status quo ante of Covid pandemic restrictions. However, a majority of 70% felt that the old normal is unlikely return as such. The study also brought out that the size and disposition of sales teams are under review by many of pharma players and smaller field forces look likely, as the industry moves on.

My personal experience with the Indian Pharma Industry sources suggests, when a Covid pandemic wave starts finding its peak, the feeling of the above 70% prevails. However, when the same wave climbs down from its peak to a transient trough, a large number of Indian companies and experts tend to feel somewhat akin to what the above 30% expressed in the Reuters Events Pharma survey. The process gets repeated with the emergence of the next wave.

Alongside, as the above survey also finds out, most physicians are no longer expecting – brand-driven high sales pitches, during any MR-Doctor interaction or the engagement process. Instead, they are increasingly looking for insights – in an integrated, personalized and value-driven interactions with the Reps.

Considering this as a trend of over last one year or so, it is likely that MR-doctor interactions will now need to be on digital and omnichannel platforms to deliver a personalized and value driven an experience to the customers. In this environment, the field force may be smaller in size than what it used to be in early 2020 but will have a unique new role to play. This process will come with a new challenge, especially to those inbred companies, who are still undecided about the road ahead for business excellence, in the new normal.

Three new pharma leadership challenges:

Apparently, a large number of domestic drug companies, irrespective of size and scale of operations still feel comfortable to be in the old comfort zone that had propelled the business in a growth trajectory. Most pharma sales and marketing staff members, at several levels, have grown within the industry, consistently delivering high performance.

This situation by itself, as the above research paper revealed, poses three fresh challenges for many companies to make their field-staff ready to play a unique and fresh role in e-marketing. Thus, the three new knots to untie in the virtual world, are the following:

  • Currently, most MRs are not proficient in selling in virtually,
  • They are being led by people who have also never sold virtually,
  • They are being trained by people who also have never sold virtually.

MRs will continue to have a role to play even in the digital world:

To overcome the above challenges, today’s reality prompts new L&D needs of pharma’s new e-environment. And from this perspective, I think, they would need professional domain experts’ hand-holding, at least, in the transition phase of digital marketing. Some companies have initiated this process for greater sales force effectiveness, since 2019. A recent example in this area may be quoted from a report on October 01, 2019.

The article highlights, ‘AstraZeneca sales reps have some new help in the coaching department, resulting improved interactions and better development of sales reps’ strengths. While leaders still manage reps, artificial intelligence—in the form of data generated from thousands of field-coaching forms—now adds machine-learned analysis and advice.’

Thus, it is worth noting that MRs will continue to play an important role, alongside remote digital marketing using omnichannel or multi-channel engagement platforms. The same also came out clearly in the latest study from healthcare consultancy ZoomRx, reported on April 08, 2021, where its findings raised an important question - ‘Did pharma overshoot digital sales rep calls?’ This dilemma was prompted by the study charts reflecting a decline in its effectiveness, during this specific survey period.

Thus, in my opinion, a hybrid business model for better performance will be more effective in the new normal. However, ascertaining the right mix of digital and MR’s in-person interactions, may pose a challenge for many pharma marketers.

Entry into digital health solutions – an opportunity for growth: 

Before Covid pandemic, digital therapeutics or digital health solutions were not an unknown area for several pharma companies, as a growth booster in the modern world. But, it wasn’t explored so intensively as it is being discussed today, for the same. A recent paper titled, ‘Digital health during COVID-19: lessons from operationalizing new models of care in ophthalmology,’ published in The Lancet on February 01, 2021, vindicates this point.

The paper emphasized, due to Covid pandemic ‘the traditional face-to-face patient–physician care model has had to be re-examined in many countries, with digital technology and new models of care being rapidly deployed to meet the various challenges of the pandemic.’ It further highlighted, these new models incorporate digital health solutions such as telehealth, AI based decision support for triaging, besides clinical care, and home monitoring.

Global pharma majors, such as Novartis, have publicly acknowledged on January 21, 202 that ‘digital innovation looks set to dominate the 2021 healthcare agenda.’ The statement said, COVID-19 was a catalyst for change in healthcare during 2020 and an accelerator for digital health. Similarly, 2021 looks set to continue the revolution – exploiting ‘an explosion of interest, traction and scale’ in the potential for digital solutions. These would not only support remote working, but also keep the very fabric of business, healthcare, education, and essential services in operation.

Other important and recent examples of digital health care solutions: 

Witnessing the COVID-19 pandemic pushing more people toward virtual doctor visits over the last one year, AstraZeneca, as reported on April 06, 2021, is preparing for it in the new normal, through a novel project with Massachusetts General Hospital. The Company is now in the process of establishing and validating its ‘recently launched digital health platform, designed to help patients with chronic illnesses manage their conditions without stepping foot into the academic medical center’s clinic.’

Similarly, several other companies, are also investing to be early entrants with user friendly state of the art technology in this space. Interestingly, many of these ventures were reported during March and April 2021.

Conclusion:

Arthur Miller’s play ‘Death of a Salesman,’ broadly addressed the loss of identity and a man’s inability to accept change within himself and society. Although, the book depicts a larger philosophical perspective of life – many pointed out similar issues in the drug industry perspective, as well.

Nonetheless, many studies have established, pharma MRs have been effectively delivering, since long, the endpoint deliverables, as expected of them – sales. However, the question that still haunts many – can this core process be re-imagined for greater efficiency and effectiveness at a lesser cost, harnessing modern technology. An article, published in the Pharmaphorum on March 11, 2011, has also suggested – ‘in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an even greater need to re-examine the rep’s role. How can a field force evolve to deal with current challenges and be future-fit for the way we will be working in the post-pandemic world?’ 

There is no confusion today that MRs’ will have a key role to play in pharma’s digital endeavor. However, the key purpose of having them has evolved during the pandemic. Such as, from being an efficient way to achieve personal communication objectives – to be an orchestrator for physicians to navigate the difficult landscape, providing them a differentiated service. For this purpose, I reckon, a hybrid business model for better performance, will be more effective in the new normal, while quickly adapting to digital transformation. However, arriving at the right mix of digital and MR’s in-person interactions, may pose a challenge for many pharma marketers, as it will be a company-specific need.

Similarly, the criticality of leveraging opportunities to provide remote delivery of digital health care solutions to patients, has also come onto the radar of many pharma players, during this difficult time. Several players have already added this area as a lucrative business expansion platform – many more are expected to follow. Thus, in my view, the fast-evolving data-based trends are now giving a pragmatic shape to future pharma operations – especially on the new and unique role of medical representatives and the relevance of digital health care solutions, as a growth opportunity.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma ‘Chatbots’: For Better Stakeholder Engagement

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The critical value of meaningful interaction and engagement with individual customers – responding to their specific needs, is fast drawing attention of many businesses, for sustainable performance excellence. The same is happening in the pharma industry, as well. Creative use of this process leveraging modern technological support systems, would also provide a unique scope of cutting-edge brand service differentiation, in well researched areas.

That, it is a very important focus area for the pharma players, is no-brainer. Nonetheless, what really matters most is the novelty in strategizing such interactions and engagements, especially with patients and doctors. I also wrote about it in my article, titled ‘Indian Pharma To Stay Ahead of Technology Curve,’ published in this blog on May 22, 2017. Over two years ago, I clearly indicated there that application of AI via digital tools, called ‘Chatbots’ – the shorter form of ‘Chat Robot’, is one of the ways that pharma may wish to explore this area.

Illustrating this point in that article, I mentioned that on March 05, 2017, a leading bank in India announced the launch of an AI-driven Chatbot named Eva, coined from the words Electronic Virtual Assistant (EVA), to add more value to their services for greater customer satisfaction. ‘According to reports, Eva is India’s first AI driven banking Chatbot that can answer millions of customer queries on its own, across multiple channels, immediately.’

In this article, I shall dwell on this interesting area, with a primary focus on pharma sales and marketing, and assess the progress made in this space, thus far, by several drug companies, including some Indian players. Let me start by recapitulating the basic function and purpose of ‘Chatbots’ in pharma.

Pharma ‘Chatbots’ – the function and purpose:

Simply speaking, pharma ‘Chatbots’ are also AI-powered, fully automated virtual assistants. Its basic function is to mimic one-to-one human conversation on particular areas, as desired by the user. Likewise, its basic purpose is to genuinely help and assist the customers who are in search of right answers to specific disease related questions, in a one-to-one conversational format, having a higher source-credibility.

In that process, ‘Chatbots’ can effectively satisfy the patients and doctors by providing them the required information, immediately. In tandem, pharma companies also reap a rich harvest, by developing not just a trust-based healthy relationship with them, but also in building a robust corporate brand – creating a long-term goodwill that competition would possibly envy.  

Effective customer satisfaction is an area that can’t be ignored:

In the digital age, a new type of general need is all pervasive, with its demand shooting north. This is the need to satisfy a voracious appetite among a large section of the population for all types of information, with effortless and prompt availability of the required details – as and when these come to one’s mind.

When such information need relates to health concern of a person, such as – available treatment options against affordability, or drug price comparisons – factoring in effectiveness, safety concern – exactly the same thing happens. Most individuals won’t have patience even to write an email and wait for an answer, even the wait is just for a short while.

In the current scenario, it will be interesting to fathom, how would a pharma company, generally, interact or engage with such patients, to further business and creating a possible long-time customer? Some companies have started responding to this need – effectively and efficiently, by providing easy access to information through ‘Chatbots’, created on advances AI platforms. But, such players are a few in number.

Can pharma also think of ‘Chatbots’, like ‘Siri’ or ‘Alexa’?

Today, several people are using standalone and branded Chatbot devices in everyday life, such as, Siri (Apple), Alexa (Amazon), Cortana (Microsoft) or Google Now (Android). Interestingly, many industries, including a few companies in pharma, have also started developing their own version of ‘Chatbot dialog application systems.’

Industry specific ‘Chatbots’ are designed to meet with some specific purpose of human communication, including a variety of customer interaction, information acquisition and engagement – by providing a range of customized services to the target group.’ ‘Siri’ or ‘Alexa’ or the likes, on the other hand, are all-purpose general Chatbots, though, for everyday use of individuals. Thus, the question that comes up, in which areas pharma companies can use Chatbots to add value to their interactions and engagements with patients, in general, and also doctors.

Where to use ‘Chatbots’ as a new pharma marketing channel?

Some of the findings on the application of ‘Chatbots’, especially in pharma sales and marketing, featured in the CMI Media publication in December, 2016. It found that drug companies have a unique scope to leverage this new sales and marketing – channel, by developing ‘Chatbots’ in the company represented therapy areas. Following are just a few most simple illustrations of possible types ‘Chatbots’ for interaction and engagement with patients, which can be designed in interesting ways:

  • That can answer all types of patient questions on specific diseases, educate them about the disease and available treatment options with details.
  • That allows patients or physicians to get all relevant information about the prescription drugs that they require to prescribe for patients to start treatment, including potential side effects, adverse events, tolerability, dosing, efficacy and costs, besides others.
  • Once a treatment option is chosen, a third kind of Chatbot can help with patient adherence to treatment, provide reminders when the treatment should be administered, explain how to properly dose and administer the treatment, and other relevant information.

Chatbots could also be useful for doctors and nurses:

As the above paper finds, ‘Chatbots have value for serving healthcare professionals as well, for example:

  • When, physicians and nurses want to understand the pathogenesis, pathophysiology, and/or progression of a specific disease in their patients.
  • Although, such content may also be available on disease state awareness sites, but branded Chatbots would make that content readily available in more of an FAQ format.
  • When health care professionals would like to get data around safety/toxicity, or information about dosing strengths, calculations, and titrations, while using specific brands.

Chatbots can also be effectively utilized by the drug manufacturer to gain deep insights into customer behavior across all touchpoints, to enhance end-to-end customer experience, as I wrote in this blog on July 02, 2018. The data created through this process, can also be put to strategic use to design unique brand offerings.

Need to chart this frontier with caution:

Pharma, being a highly regulated industry in every country of the world, with a varying degree, though, the ‘Chatbot’ development process should strictly conform to all ‘Dos’ and ‘Don’ts’, as prescribed by the regulators of each country. Each and every content of the ‘Chatbot’ should pass through intense, not just regulatory, but also legal and medical scrutiny. Yet another, critical redline that ‘Chatbots’ should never cross is the ‘privacy’ of any individual involved in the process.

Three critical areas to consider for pharma ‘Chatbots’:

Effective pharma ‘Chatbots’ are expected to get ticks on all three of the following critical boxes:

  • Meeting clearly defined unmet needs of patients in search of a health care solution or most suitable disease treatment options.
  • Brand value offerings should match or be very close to the targeted patients’ and doctors’ expectations.
  • Should facilitate achieving company’s business objectives in a quantifiable manner, directly or indirectly, as was planned in advance.

Pharma has made some progress in this area, even in India:

To facilitate more meaningful and deeper engagements with patients, some drug companies, including, in India, are using ‘Chatbots.’ Here, I shall give just three examples to drive home the point – two from outside India and one from India.

October 23, 2018 issue of the pharma letter reported, a study from DRG Digital Manhattan Research found, ‘Novo Nordisk and Sanofi brands rank best for the digital type 2 diabetes patient experience.’ The article wrote, about some pharma players ‘facilitating deeper engagement through the use of automated tools like Chatbots to triage inquiries and get patients the answers they need faster, and through interactive content like quizzes and questionnaires that pull patients in and help them navigate health decisions,’ as follows:

  • Novo Nordisk‘s diabetes website includes an automated Chat feature dubbed “Ask Sophia,” helping patients access disease and condition management information more quickly.
  • Likewise, Merck & Co‘s website for Januvia employs interactive quizzes to educate patients and caregivers.

Similarly, on November 23, 2018, a leading Indian business daily came with a headline, ‘Lupin launches first Chatbot for patients to know about their ailments.’ It further elaborated, the Chatbot named ‘ANYA’, is designed to provide medically verified information for health-related queries. The disease awareness bot aims to answer patient queries related to ailments,’ the report highlighted.

Chatbots – global market outlook:

According to the report, titled ‘Healthcare Chatbots – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026),’the Global Healthcare Chat bots market accounted for USD 97.46 million in 2017 and is expected to reach USD 618.54 million by 2026 growing at a CAGR of 22.8 percent.

The increasing demand for Chatbot ‘virtual health assistance’, is fueled primarily by the following two key growth drivers, the report added:

  • Increasing penetration of high-speed Internet.
  • Rising adoption of smart devices.

Conclusion:

With the steep increase of the usage of the Internet and smart phones, general demand to have greater access to customized information is also showing a sharp ascending trend, over a period of time. A general expectation of individuals is to get such information immediately and in a user-friendly way.

Encouraged by this trend, and after a reasonably thorough information gathering process, mainly from the cyberspace, many patients now want to more actively participate in their treatment decision making process with the doctors. This new development has a great relevance to drug companies, besides other health service providers. They get an opportunity to proactively interact and engage with patients in various innovative ways, responding to individual health needs and requirements, thereby boosting the sales revenue of the corporation.

The unique AI-driven technological platform of pharma ‘Chatbots’, is emerging as cutting-edge tools for more productive stakeholder engagement – so important for achieving business excellence in the digital world. The recent growth trajectory of ‘Chatbots’ in the health care space, vindicates this point.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma Outlook 2015: A Glimpse Of Some Drivers and Barriers

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Looking ahead, the brand new year 2015 appears quite interesting to me both from the global and also from the local pharmaceutical industry perspective. In this article I shall try to give a glimpse of some of the important drivers and barriers for success of the industry as the year unfolds, based on recent and ongoing developments.

Let me start with the global outlook of 2015, where in the midst of all gloom and doom of the past years, I notice formation of a distinct and new silver lining, mainly due to the following two reasons:

1. Record number of new drugs approval in 2014 spanning across10 therapy areas:

As indicated in its website, USFDA has approved 41 novel medicines in 2014, which is 14 more than the previous year and is the second highest after 1996 that witnessed 53 approvals. Many of these new drugs are with blockbuster potential.

According to another report, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has also recommended 82 new medicines in 2014, which though includes generic drugs in its list. However, this number too shows an increase from 79 in 2013 and 57 in 2012.

According to January 02, 2014 report from Forbes, very interestingly, infectious diseases dominated with 12 approvals (27 percent), cancer with 8 approvals (18 percent), followed by rare diseases with 5 (11 percent). Just two of these new approvals are for Hepatitis treatment and the rest are for bacterial, fungal, viral, and parasitic infections.

AstraZeneca received the highest number of 4 approvals followed by Eli Lilly with 3.

2. Patent expired blockbuster drugs in 2015 would have low generic impact:

Though drugs worth sales turnover of US$ 44 billion would go off patent in 2015, patent expiries will have minimal impact on the top line as 2015 sales will grow close to four times that of patent losses. Following are the top 10 drugs among those:

No. Brand Company Disease Sales2013 (US$ Bn) Patent Expiry
1. Lantus Sanofi Diabetes 7.9 Feb 2015
2. Abilify Otsuka/Bristol-Myers Squibb Schizophrenia/ Other neurological conditions 7.8 April 2015
3. Copaxone Teva Multiple sclerosis 4.33 Sept 2015
4. Neulasta Amgen Infection reduction in cancer patients on chemotherapy 4.4 Oct 2015
5. Tracleer Actelion Pulmonary arterial hypertension 1.57 Nov 2015
6. Namenda Actavis Alzheimer’s disease 1.5 April 2015
7. Avodart/Jalyn GSK Benign prostatic hypertrophy 1.34 Nov 2015
8. Zyvox Pfizer Gram-positive bacterial infections 1.35 May 2015
9. AndroGel Abbvie Low testosterone  1.03 Early 2015
10. Synagis AstraZeneca Monoclonal antibody to prevent respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants  1.1 Oct 2015

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

As a significant number of these drugs are biologics, such as Lantus, Abilify, Neulasta and Synagis, the generic impact on those large brands, post patent expiry, would be minimal, at least, for several more years.

However, Lantus sales could soon be impacted, as its biosimilar versions from Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly have already received approval in Europe, and may be launched in the United States, as well.

Biosimilar versions of other drugs that will go off patent in 2015, do not seem to be anywhere near launch soon to make immediate dent in the sales of the original biologics. I had deliberated on various possible reasons for delay in biosimilar entry, especially in the US, in my earlier blog post of August 25, 2014, titled “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns”

Taking all these into consideration, EvaluatePharma has estimated that out of patent expiry related sales turnover of US$44 billion, just around US $16 billion would get impacted in 2015 by their generic equivalents.

Global market outlook 2015:

According to IMS Health, spending on medicines will reach nearly $1,100 billion in 2015 with a growth rate of 3-6 percent over the last five-year period.

According to EvaluatePharma, the overall outlook of the global pharma industry in 2015 and beyond is expected to be as follows:

  • A dozen products launched in 2015 are forecast to achieve blockbuster sales by 2020
  • Drugs treating high cholesterol and heart failure will dominate the field with a combined 2020 sales forecast of US$8 billion
  • Sovaldi and its combination product Harvoni will take the number one worldwide seller spot with forecasted sales of $15.3 billion in 2015
  • Patent expiries will have minimal impact on the top line as 2015 sales will grow close to four times that of patent losses
  • Financing climate appears friendly and deals will continue at a steady pace but M&A activity unlikely to match the frenzy of 2014

Moreover, Oncology therapy area brings a huge promise with novel immuno-oncology drugs. As Reuters have reported, Merck & Co’s Keytruda and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo, which work by blocking a protein called Programmed Death receptor (PD-1), are the first in a coming wave of immuno-therapies that analysts believe could generate annual sales of more than US$30 billion a year.

Indian pharma industry outlook 2015:

Indian pharmaceutical industry, dominated by branded generic drugs, is estimated to register a turnover of around US$ 33.8 billion with an average growth of 10.3 percent in 2014 – 2018 period, according to Deloitte. Increasing number of diagnosis and treatment of chronic ailments, fuelled by ascending trend in the per capita income, would be the key factors to drive this double-digit growth rate.

In 2013-14, pharma exports of the country with a turnover of US$ 14.84 billion grew at a meager 1.2 percent, which is the slowest growth in nearly the last 15 years. Pharmexcil attributed its reason to USFDA related regulatory issues and increasing global competition. India still stands exposed in this area, unless meaningful corrective measures are taken forthwith. It is worth noting, although India exports drugs to over 200 countries in the world, the United States (US) alone accounts for about 25 percent of India’s pharma exports.

Key issues and challenges in ‘The Exports Front’:

Generic drugs currently contribute over 80 percent of prescriptions written in the US. Around 40 percent of prescriptions and Over The Counter (OTC) drugs that are sold there, come from India and account for around 10 per cent of finished dosages in the US.

Almost all of these are cheaper generic versions of patent expired drugs, which are mainly produced in around 200 USFDA approved drug-manufacturing facilities located in India. Hence, India’s commercial stake in this space is indeed mind-boggling.

Indian drug exports were taking place satisfactorily without any major regulatory hitches since quite some time. Unfortunately, over the last few years, mostly the Federal Drug Administration of the US (USFDA) and the United Kingdom (UK)’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) have started raising serious doubts on the quality of medicines manufactured in India, creating an uncertainty on drug exports in those countries.

To overcome this critical issue and keep marching ahead with distinction in the drug exports front, Indian pharma would require to successfully dealing with the following two areas:

A. Data integrity:

Since quite a while, USFDA has been raising serious concerns on ‘Data Integrity’ in their previously approved production facilities of a large number of Indian pharma players. The details of each of these concerns are available in the USFDA website.

This worrying development is now posing a huge threat to future growth potential of Indian drug exports, as in this area the Indian government had set an objective, in its strategy document, to register a turnover of US$ 25 billion in 2014-15. In all probability, it would fall far short of this target at the end of this fiscal, predominantly for related reasons. However, the good news is, considering the criticality of the situation, the Indian government is now working with the USFDA to resolve this problem.

I discussed a part of this area in my Blog Post of September 29, 2014 titled “Make in India…Sell Any Where in The World”: An Indian Pharma Perspective

B. Credibility of Clinical Trial Data from India:

Credibility of ‘Clinical Trial Data’ generated by the domestic players in India, has also become a cause of great concern, as the regulators in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg suspended marketing approval for 25 drugs over the genuineness of clinical trial data from India’s GVK Biosciences.

Key issues and challenges in ‘The Domestic Front’:

Though 2015 would also witness the following important issues and challenges, meeting with this challenge of change should not be difficult with a proper mindset and right strategies:

A. The Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013):

Change in the mechanism of drug price control from earlier ‘cost based’ to newer ‘market based’ one and the specified provisions to neutralize inflationary impact of the input costs on the bottom line, based on the WPI, have already been considered as welcoming changes for the industry. As a result, despite implementation of the DPCO 2013, the pharma shares continued to do well in 2014 despite doomsayers’ predicaments, not just in the past, but even today.

I believe, the DPCO 2013 would not cause any significant negative impact further in 2015 on the performance of pharma companies, as the price controlled drugs would in all probability continue to be around 20 percent of the total pharma market. Moreover, now annual price increases are linked to the WPI for the controlled products and the companies can increase prices of remaining 80 percent of decontrolled products, upto 10 percent every year, irrespective of inflationary trend.

That said, due to huge inter-brand price differences, in July 2014 the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) had brought under price control 50 more cardiovascular and anti-diabetic drugs in addition to 348 drugs that featured under price control in the DPCO 2013.

If the pharma players do not take note of such abnormal inter-brand price variation of the same drugs without meaningful reasons, there could possibly be further move by the NPPA in this direction.

Additionally, any mechanism for patented products’ pricing, if announced in 2015, would have far-reaching impact, especially on the MNCs marketing such drugs.

B. Unethical practices in Clinical trial:

In the Clinical Trial arena of India, responding to a Public Interest Litigation (PIL), the Supreme Court of the country and separately the Parliamentary Standing Committee had indicted the drug regulator and charted out some action areas. The Parliamentary Committee in its report had even mentioned about a nexus existing between the drug regulator and the industry in this area.

Driven by the directives of the Apex Court of the country, the union ministry of health of the government of India has already strengthened some areas of past laxity in drug regulatory control, such as mandatory registration of clinical trials, constitution of committees to oversee the trial approval, its execution and above all ethical treatment of patients, including compensation.

Although, these are all requisite measures to create an appropriate longer-term eco-system for clinical trials in India, it has reportedly ruffled many feathers, such as CROs in the country who work mainly for pharma MNCs and some global pharma players too. This is mainly because of inordinate delays in drug approvals during the regulatory rectification process, besides cost of clinical trials going up. An orderly drug regulatory environment must prevail, instead of allegedly ‘free for all’ clinical trial environment in the country, costing many innocent lives and livelihoods.  Responding to this changing clinical trial environment, some MNCs have already articulated that they are reconsidering their drug trial strategy in India and some Indian players, possibly with vested interests and echoing similar sentiments, are also saying that they would shift their clinical trial projects out of India, which would adversely impact the country’s clinical trial industry.

Be that as it may, it appears now that under the directive of the Supreme Court of the country, the decisions taken by the government in clinical trial area are irreversible, for the long-term interest of the country.

C. Intellectual Property (IP) issues:

Reacting to some well-justified measures taken by India in the IP area to make healthcare affordable to all, the US and its some key allies, continuously pressured by their powerful pharma lobby groups, continue to push India hard to broaden the IP protections. ‘Big Pharma’ lobbyists are reportedly trying to compel India to amend its IP laws that would suit their business interest at the cost of patients.

Fortunately, many stakeholders, including media, have started raising their voices against such strong-arm tactics, further fueling the credibility erosion of ‘Big Pharma’ and creating important pressure groups for the government.

Simultaneously, concerned pharma MNCs are also seeking legal recourse over issues mainly related to the section (3d) and Compulsory Licensing of the Indian Patents Act. However, most of the judicial verdicts vindicate the quality of decisions taken by the Indian Patent Office (IPO) in these areas.

Though very unlikely, any amendment or tweaking of the existing patent laws of India in 2015 would provide an unfair advantage to MNCs with negative impact on public health interest.

D. Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices:

Compared to the actions that are now being taken by the law enforcers overseas against pharmaceutical marketing malpractices, India has been showing a rather lackadaisical attitude in these areas, until recently. It astonishes many that unlike even China; no pharmaceutical company has been investigated thoroughly and hauled up by the government for alleged bribery and other serious allegations of corrupt practices.

However, frequent reporting by the Indian media had triggered a debate in the country on the subject. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) on this subject is now pending before the Supreme Court for hearing in the near future. It is worth noting that in 2010, ‘The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Health’ also had expressed its deep concern by stating that the “evil practice” of inducement of doctors by the pharma companies is continuing unabated as the revised guidelines of the Medical Council of India (MCI) have no jurisdiction over the pharma industry.

The Government, until recently, has shown no active interest in this area either, though the new Union Health Minister, J.P. Nadda decried the unethical nexus between the doctors and pharma companies, amounting violations of medical ethics in the country. He reportedly has stated that in majority of the cases, the pharma companies are luring the doctors by giving gifts and other benefits for prescribing the brand of medicines of their choice to the patients.

As the saying goes, ‘better late than never’, on December 12, 2014, the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) of the Government of India announced details of the ‘Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCPMP)’, which would be effective across the country from January 1, 2015 for all pharma players to implement, across India.

However, I reckon, the document in its current form is rather weak in its effective implementation potential. Meaningful and transparent deterrent measures to uphold public health interest are also lacking. The entire process also deserves a well-structured monitoring mechanism and digital implementation tools that can be operated with military precision. I discussed this issue in my Blog Post of December 29, 2014, titled “India’s Pharma Marketing Code (UCPMP): Is It Crafted Well Enough To Deliver The Deliverables?”

On UCPMP a survey done by E&Y has highlighted the following points, besides other areas:

  • More than 50 percent of the respondents are of the opinion that the UCPMP may lead to manipulation in recording of actual sampling activity.
  • Over 50 percent of the respondents indicated that the effectiveness of the code would be very low in the absence of legislative support provided to the UCPMP committee.
  • 90 percent of the respondents felt that pharma companies in India should focus on building a robust internal controls system to ensure compliance with the UCPMP.

In my view as well, the self-regulatory measures prescribed in the UCPMP of the DoP are unlikely to make any significant impact in 2015, unless pharma companies start focusing on building robust internal controls system to ensure compliance with the UCPMP.

Conclusion:

I would now put on the balance of probabilities, the new ‘Silver Linings’ of the Global pharmaceutical industry as discussed above, the issues and challenges of 2015 for the Indian pharma and also other important factors that I have not been able to discuss in this article. The overall emerging picture depicts that the pharma industry, both global and local, would fare much better than what it did in the recent past, provided the industry, as a whole, does not continue to ignore the storm signals outright.

Thus, based on the available data, the year 2015, as appears to me, would provide an enormous opportunity with promises of an interesting time ahead that the pharmaceutical industry should try to leverage on…and then cherish it for a long while…most probably as a turning point of the same ball game with different success requirements.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.