Is Drug Innovation As Critical As Access To Medicines For All? [Augmented By A Video]

To make important medicines available to all in a sustainable way, the renowned philosopher Thomas Pogge in this very interesting video clipping titled “Medicines For The 99 Percent” suggested the following three simple, yet critical, steps to effectively run the healthcare system of any nation with a cost-effective and patient-centric approach:

  • Access to important medicines for all
  • A robust drug innovation model to meet the unmet needs of patients
  • Transparent and efficient systems to make medicines affordable to all, eliminating wastage of all kinds

To translate this process into reality Pogge proposed an out-of-box model, not just to incentivize companies for drug innovation, but also to produce those drugs in a cost-effective way . In his submission, Pogge recommended a US$ 6 billion ‘Health Impact Fund’ to revolutionize the way medicines are developed and sold. He strongly argued that the value of an innovative drug should always be ascertained by its differential “Health Impact” on patients over the equivalent available generics in the respective disease areas.

As you will see in the video, the model is interesting and deserves wholehearted support from all stakeholders, despite possible resistance from some powerful quarters prompted by vested interests.

Drug innovation and access to medicines:

As the good old saying goes, “Health is Wealth”. When a person falls sick, regaining health is all-important. Medicines play a very critical role there, for all. In the ongoing battle against various types of diseases, addressing unmet needs of the patients is also equally important. For this reason, drug innovation plays just as critical a role.

However, it is now a well-known fact that medicines, as such, are not very expensive to manufacture on a relative yardstick. Abundant availability of cheaper generic medicines, post-patent expiry, with as much as  90 percent price erosion over the concerned patented drug price, would vindicate this point.

Current R&D model:

Astronomical mark-ups on the cost of goods for the innovative-patented drugs coming out of the current R&D model, restrict access to these medicines mostly to rich people of both poor and rich countries of the world, depriving majority of the have-nots. Although in an ideal situation, all these medications should be accessible to those who need them the most.

Is the model sustainable?

Innovator companies attribute ‘astronomical’ high prices of patented drugs to hefty R&D expenditure, which probably includes high cost of failures too. Unfortunately, despite ongoing raging debates, R&D expense details are still held very close to the chest by the innovator companies, with almost total lack of transparency. Many experts, therefore, believe that this opaque, skewed and unsustainable drug R&D model of the global pharma majors needs a radical makeover now, as you would yourself see by clicking on the ‘video clipping’, as mentioned above

To ensure full access to important drugs for all, there are other R&D or innovation models too. Unfortunately, none of those appears to be financially as lucrative to the innovator companies as the one that they are currently following, thus creating a challenging logjam in the inclusive process of drug innovation.

Are Pharmaceutical R&D expenses overstated?

Some experts in this area argue that pharmaceutical R&D expenses are overstated, as the real costs are much less.

An article titled “Demythologizing the high costs of pharmaceutical research”, published by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2011 indicated that the total cost from the discovery and development stages of a new drug to its market launch was around US$ 802 million in the year 2000. This was worked out in 2003 by the ‘Tuft Center for the Study of Drug Development’ in Boston, USA.

However, in 2006 this figure increased by 64 per cent to US$ 1.32 billion, as reported by a large pharmaceutical industry association of the United States, though with dubious credibility as considered by many.

The authors of the above article had also mentioned that the following factors were not considered while working out the 2006 figure of US$ 1.32 billion:

▪   Tax exemptions that the companies avail for investing in R&D

▪   Tax write-offs that amount to taxpayers’ contributing almost 40 percent of the R&D cost

▪   Cost of basic research should not have been included as those are mostly undertaken       by public funded universities or laboratories

The article observed that ‘half the R&D costs are inflated estimates of profits that companies could have made, if they had invested in the stock market instead of R&D and include exaggerated expenses on clinical trials’.

“High R&D costs have been the industry’s excuses for charging high prices”:

In line with this deliberation, in the same article the authors reinforce the above point, as follows:

“Pharmaceutical companies have a strong vested interest in maximizing figures for R&D as high research and development costs have been the industry’s excuse for charging high prices. It has also helped generating political capital worth billions in tax concessions and price protection in the form of increasing patent terms and extending data exclusivity.”

The study concludes by highlighting that “the real R&D cost for a drug borne by a pharmaceutical company is probably about US$ 60 million.”

Should Pharmaceutical R&D move away from the traditional model?

Echoing philosopher Thomas Pogge’s submission, another critical point to ponder today is:

Should the pharmaceutical R&D now move away from its traditional comfort zone of expensive one company initiative to a much less charted frontier of sharing drug discovery involving many players?

If this overall collaborative approach gains broad acceptance and then momentum sooner, with active participation of all concerned, it could lead to substantial increase in R&D productivity at a much lesser expenditure, eliminating wastage by reducing the cost of failures significantly, thus benefiting the patients community at large.

Choosing the right pathway in this direction is more important today than ever before, as the R&D productivity of the global pharmaceutical industry, in general, keeps going south and that too at a faster pace.

Making drug innovation sustainable: 

Besides Thomas Pogge’s model with ‘Health Impact Fund’ as stated above, there are other interesting drug R&D models too. In this article, I shall focus on two examples:

Example I:

A July 2010 study of Frost & Sullivan reports: “Open source innovation increasingly being used to promote innovation in the drug discovery process and boost bottom-line”.

The concept underscores the urgent need for the global pharmaceutical companies to respond to the challenges of high cost and low productivity in their respective R&D initiatives, in general.

The ‘Open Innovation’ model assumes even greater importance today, as we have noted above, to avoid huge costs of R&D failures, which are eventually passed on to the patients again through the drug pricing mechanism.

‘Open Innovation’ model, as they proposed, will be most appropriate to even promote highly innovative approaches in the drug discovery process bringing many brilliant scientific minds together from across the world.

The key objective of ‘Open Innovation’ in pharmaceuticals is, therefore, to encourage drug discovery initiatives at a much lesser cost, especially for non-infectious chronic diseases or the dreaded ailments like Cancer, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer, Multiple Sclerosis, including many neglected diseases of the developing countries, making innovative drugs affordable even to the marginalized section of the society.

Android smart phones with huge commercial success are excellent examples of ‘Open Source Innovation’. So, why not replicate the same successful model of inclusive innovation in the pharmaceutical industry too?

Example II - “Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP)” initiative:

This laudable initiative has come to the fore recently in he arena of collaborative R&D, where 10 big global pharma majors reportedly decided in February 2014 to team up with the National Institutes of Health (NIH) of the United States in a ‘game changing’ initiative to identify disease-related molecules and biological processes that could lead to future medicines.

This Public Private Partnership (PPP) for a five-year period has been named as “Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP)”. According to the report, this US federal government-backed initiative would hasten the discovery of new drugs in cost effective manner focusing first on Alzheimer’s disease, Type 2 diabetes, and two autoimmune disorders: rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. The group considered these four disease areas among the largest public-health threats, although the span of the project would gradually expand to other diseases depending on the initial outcome of this project.

“A Social Brain Is a Smarter Brain”: 

As if to reinforce the concept, a recent HBR Article titled “A Social Brain Is a Smarter Brain” also highlighted, “Open innovation projects (where organizations facing tricky problems invite outsiders to take a crack at solving them) always present cognitive challenges, of course. But they also force new, boundary-spanning human interactions and fresh perspective taking. They require people to reach out to other people, and thus foster social interaction.” This articulation further reinforces the relevance of a new, contemporary and inclusive drug innovation model for greater patient access.

Conclusion:

Taking these points into perspective, I reckon, there is a dire need to make the process of offering innovative drugs at affordable prices to all patients absolutely robust and sustainable as we move on.

Philosopher Thomas Pogge, in his above video clipping, has also enunciated very clearly that all concerned must ensure that medications get to those who need them the most. He has also shown a win-win pathway in form of creation of a “Health Impact Fund’ to effectively address this issue. There are other inclusive, sustainable and cost effective R&D models too, such as Open Innovation and Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP), to choose from.

That said, a paradigm shift in the drug innovation model can materialize only when there will be a desire to step into the uncharted frontier, coming out of the comfort zone of much familiar independent money spinning silos of drug innovation. Dove tailing business excellence with the health interest of all patients, dispassionately, would then be the name of the game.

Bringing this transformation sooner is extremely important, as drug innovation would continue to remain as critical as access to important medicines for all, in perpetuity.

However, to maintain proper checks and balances between drug innovation and access to medicines for all, the value of an innovative drug should always be ascertained by its differential ‘Health Impact’ on patients over equivalent available generics in that disease area and NOT by how much money, including the cost of R&D failures, goes behind bringing such drugs to the market, solely driven by commercial considerations.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

RHDS: A Simmering Promise in Despondency

Eric Topol, a leading cardiologist who has embraced the study of genomics and the latest advances in technology to treat chronic disease says, “We’ll soon use our smartphones to monitor our vital signs and chronic conditions in future.”

By clicking on this video clippingyou can watch how Dr. Topol in his talk titled “The Wireless Future of Medicine”, highlights several of the most important wireless devices in medicine’s future – all helping to keep more patients out of hospital beds.

In achieving similar objectives, India’s potential is indeed immense. The good news is, though in India Internet penetration has just crossed 16 percent of its total population, in absolute numbers this percentage reportedly works out to nearly 10 times the population of Australia. According to a report released by the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IMAI) and IMRB, there will be around 243 million internet users in India by June 2014, overtaking the US as the world’s second largest internet base after China. This situation must be leveraged to improve access to healthcare in the country significantly.

‘Remote Healthcare Delivery Solutions (RHDS)’

However, for several other reasons the situation is quite challenging in India. Out of its total population of over 1.2 billion, nearly 72.2 percent live in the hinterland and remote rural areas spreading across over 700,000 villages. In all these places, despite huge prevalence of diseases, inadequate healthcare infrastructure and delivery mechanisms offer an ideal backdrop to explore innovative healthcare solutions such as, ‘Remote Healthcare Delivery Solutions (RHDS)’ or ‘Telemedicine’. In that endeavor, smartphones could play a key role in improving access to healthcare for a very large number of population.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined ‘Telemedicine’ as:

“The use of information and communications technology (ICT) to deliver healthcare, particularly in settings where access to medical services is insufficient.”

Thus, to effectively improve access to healthcare, especially in rural India, RHDS holds a great promise.

A complex mix:

Healthcare space in India is generally a complex mix of issues related to access, availability, affordability and quality of healthcare, compounded by inadequate public healthcare infrastructure and delivery system on the one hand and expensive private healthcare facilities on the other. The degree of this complexity is rather stark in rural areas.

In a situation like this, RHDS holds a great promise to satisfy healthcare needs of the hinterland and rural India, as this would entail effective medical care, despite understaffed Primary Healthcare Centers (PHCs) and undertrained healthcare staff, with low start-up costs.

Equipped with modern Internet enabled technologies, RHDS would facilitate transmission of patient related information through SMS, email, audio, video, or other image transmissions, like MRI and CT Scans to relevant specialists of different disciplines of medical sciences located in other places. With RHDS, these specialists can monitor even blood pressure or blood glucose levels of patients on computer screens without examining them in person.

Key advantages:

The key advantages of a structured and well committed implementation of RHDS or ‘Telemedicine’ in india are as follows:

  • Elimination of many costs, including travel expenses for specialists and patient transfers – especially in a critical health situation, improving access to quality healthcare.
  • Reduction of feeling of isolation of the rural medical practitioners by upgrading their knowledge through Tele-education or Tele-Continuing Medical Education (CME) programs.

RHDS in India:

In India, RHDS initiative in form of telemedicine commenced more than a decade ago in 1999, when the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) deployed a SATCOM-based telemedicine network across the country. ISRO’s telemedicine program has now been reportedly enhanced to multi-point systems with a network of 400 centers across India.

The good news is, besides Department of Information Technology, the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare and many state governments, some well-reputed medical and technical institutes, corporates and academia have also started taking active interest in this area, especially oriented for the rural population of India.

In this context it is worth mentioning that in March 2014, Biocon Foundation reportedly partnered with Canara Bank and the Odisha Government for an e-healthcare program that aims at setting up of diagnostic facilities in PHCs to improve healthcare access to  51,000 villages.

Simultaneously, the Department of Information Technology has put in place the ‘Standards for Telemedicine Systems’ and the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare has constituted the National Telemedicine Task Force to provide further thrust to RHDS in India,.

To cite an example, US based World Health Partners (WHP) have reportedly set up an extensive Tele-Medicine network in the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), which has received almost 35,000 calls in two years requesting for services. After receiving the calls, the patients requiring intervention were directed to WHP’s franchisee clinics in the respective areas. This model included three areas namely, Meerut, Bijnor and Muzzafarnagar.

Apollo group, Narayana Hruduyalaya, Aravind Eye Hospital and Asia Heart Foundation are also running similar system in India. Unfortunately, none of these or even all put together can extend such facilities to patients across the whole of India, just yet.

The Market:

According to a report of Infinity research the global market for telemedicine is around US$ 9 billion with a CAGR of 20 percent. However, another report quoting KSA Technopak indicates that the Indian market is currently relatively very small with a market size of around US$ 7.5 Million. Considering future growth opportunities, as deliberated here, RHDS market holds a great promise.

Telemedicine or RHDS market is classified based on the type of technology and services used and usually analyzed on the basis of telemedicine applications, such as Tele-consultation, Tele-cardiology or Tele-dermatology etc. However, Tele-consultation reportedly dominates the telemedicine services market.

To give an idea of its market potential, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) telemedicine market was reportedly at US$ 200.5 million in 2009 and was expected to expand at a CAGR of 15.8 percent from 2009 to 2014.

The telemedicine technology market segment forms the largest segment of the overall BRIC telemedicine market and is expected to be US$ 307.4 million by end 2014 with a CAGR of 16.6 percent from 2009 to 2014. The services segment in the overall BRIC telemedicine market is expected to reach US$ 111 million in 2014 with a CAGR of 13.8 percent.

The Challenges in India:

Again there are following two critical challenges in this areas:

  • The biggest challenge is undoubtedly the broadband Internet connectivity.
  • Transmitting patients’ medical records through Internet could infringe upon patient privacy giving rise to ethics related issues, besides avoidable litigations.

I reckon, these concerns can be well addressed, if both the private healthcare providers and the Government together resolve and chart a time-bound pathway to improve access to quality healthcare in a cost effective manner to a large majority of Indian population.

Conclusion:

Various public and private RHDS solution providers are gradually getting actively engaged, though incoherent way, to create awareness about telemedicine in the country. This  brings with it a never before hope of ensuring access to quality healthcare to almost the entire population of the country.

A survey conducted in the United States highlighted that 85 percent of patients expressed satisfaction with their telemedicine consultation. Back home in India, a similar study in Odisha reported a satisfaction rate as high as 99 percent post telemedicine consultation.

Having a large base of medical and IT manpower with requisite expertise in RHDS, India holds a great promise to become a major telemedicine hub even for its neighboring countries, transforming the healthcare delivery scenario in all those places significantly.

Bundling all these, together with the increasing use of Internet enabled smartphones as explained by Dr. Eric Topol in his video clipping above, RHDS does offer a simmering promise in an otherwise despondent healthcare scenario of India.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Would ‘Empowered Patients’ Hold The Key For Rapid Progress of Healthcare In India?

Empowered patients would eventually hold the key of rapid progress of healthcare all over world. It has to happen in India too and is just a matter of time.

One such approach has recently been initiated in America. ‘The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI)’, established through 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of the United States, helps its people in making informed healthcare decisions to significantly improve healthcare delivery and outcomes. Active promotion of high integrity, evidence-based information that comes from intensive research, ably guided by patients, caregivers and the broader healthcare community, forms the bedrock of this Institute.

PCORI ensures that, patients and the public at large have information that they can use to make decisions that reflect their desired health outcomes.

This initiative can be termed as one of the key steps towards ‘Patients Empowerment’ in the United States, setting a good example for many other countries to follow, across the world.

Come May 2014, the new Union Government of India, with its much touted focus on healthcare, would probably find this Act worth emulating.

Changing doctor-patient relationship:

In good old days, well before the accelerated use of Internet became a way of life for many, patients used to have hardly any access to their various health related information. As a result doctors used to be the sole decision makers to address any health related problem of patients, sitting on a pedestal, as it were.

Any patient willing to discuss and participate in the decision making process of his/her ailments with the doctors, would in all probability be frowned upon with a condescending question – “Are you a doctor?” Clearly indicating – ‘Keep off! I am the decision maker for you, when you are sick”. This situation, though changing now even in India, rather slowly though, needs a radical transformation with clearly established individual ‘patient empowerment’ mechanism in the country.

Individual ‘Patient Empowerment’:

Just as PCORI in the US, Government of India too needs to encourage individual ‘Patient Empowerment’ by making him/her understand:

  • How is the healthcare system currently working on the ground?
  • What are the key drivers and barriers in getting reasonably decent healthcare support and solution in the country?
  • What should be done individually or collectively by the patient groups to overcome the obstacles that come on the way, even in rural India?
  • How should patients participate in his/her healthcare problem solving process with the doctors and payor?

The essence of ‘Patient Empowerment’:

‘Natural Health Perspective’ highlighted ‘Patient Empowerment’ as follows:

  • Health, as an attitude, can be defined as being successful in coping with pain, sickness, and death. Successful coping always requires being in control of one’s own life.
  • Health belongs to the individual and the individuals have the prime responsibility for his/her own health.
  • The individual’s capacity for growth and self-determination is paramount.
  • Healthcare professionals cannot empower people; only people can empower themselves.

It started in America: 

Much before PCORI, the movement for ‘Patient Empowerment’ started in America in the 70’s, which asserts that for truly healthy living, one should get engaged in transforming the social situation and environment affecting his/her life, demanding a greater say in the treatment process and observing the following tenets:

  • Others cannot dictate patients’ choice and lifestyle
  • ‘Patient Empowerment’ is necessary even for preventive medicines to be effective
  • Patients, just like any other consumers, have the right to make their own choices

Thus, an ‘Empowered Patient’ should always play the role of a participating partner in the healthcare decision making or problem solving process.

‘Patient empowerment’ is a precursor to ‘Patient-Centric’ approach:

In today’s world, the distrust of patients on the healthcare system, pharmaceutical companies and even on the drug regulators, is growing all over the world. Thus, to help building mutual trust in this all important area, the situation demands encouraging ‘Empowered Patients’ to actively participate in his/her medical treatment process.

In India, as ‘out-of-pocket’ healthcare expenses are skyrocketing in the absence of a comprehensive, high quality and affordable Universal Health Coverage (UHC) system, the ‘Empowered Patients’ would increasingly demand to know more of not only the available treatment choices, but also about the medicine prescription options.

‘Patient Empowerment’ is the future of healthcare:

Even today, to generate increasing prescription demand and influence prescription decision of the doctors, the pharmaceutical companies provide them with not just product information through their respective sales forces, but also drug samples and a variety of different kinds of gifts, besides many other prescription influencing favors. This approach is working very well, albeit more intensely, in India too.

Being caught in this quagmire, ‘Empowered Patients’ have already started demanding more from the pharma players for themselves. As a result, many global majors are now cutting down on their sales force size to try to move away from just hard selling and to gain more time from the doctors.  Some of them have started taking new innovative initiatives to open up a chain of direct web-based communication with patients to know more about the their needs in order to satisfy them better.

In future, with growing ‘Patient Empowerment’ the basic sales and marketing models of the pharmaceutical companies are expected to undergo a paradigm shift. At that time, so called ‘Patient-Centric’ companies of today would have no choice but to walk the talk.

Consequently, most pharma players will have to willy-nilly switch from ‘hard-selling mode’ to a new process of achieving business excellence through continuing endeavor to satisfy both the expressed and the un-expressed or under-expressed needs of the patients, not just with innovative products, but more with innovative and caring services.

In the years ahead, increasing number of ‘Empowered Patients’ are expected to play an important role in their respective healthcare decision making process, initially in the urban India. Before this wave of change effectively hits India, the pharmaceutical players in the country should pull up their socks to be a part of this change, instead of attempting to thwart the process.

Empowered Patients’ can influence even the R&D process:

Reinhard Angelmar, the Salmon and Rameau Fellow in Healthcare Management and Professor of Marketing at INSEAD, was quoted saying that ‘Empowered Patients’ can make an impact even before the new drug is available to them.

He cited instances of how the empowered breast cancer patients in the US played a crucial role not only in diverting funds from the Department of Defense to breast cancer research, but also in expediting the market authorization and improving market access of various other drugs.

Angelmar stated that ‘Empowered Patients’ of the UK were instrumental in getting NICE, their watchdog for cost-effectiveness of medicines, to change its position on the Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) drug Lucentis of Novartis and approve it for wider use than originally contemplated by them.

Patient groups such as the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation (CFF) reportedly fund directly to develop novel therapies that benefit patients in partnership with industry.

Meeting with the challenge of change:

To effectively respond to the challenge posed by the ‘Empowered Patients’, some pharmaceutical companies, especially in the US, have started developing more direct relationship with them. Creation of ‘Patient Empowered’ social networks may help addressing this issue properly.

Towards this direction, some companies, such as, Novo Nordisk had developed a vibrant patient community named ‘Juvenation’, which is a peer-to-peer social group of individuals suffering from Type 1 diabetes. The company launched this program in November 2008 and now the community has much over 16,000 members, as available in its ‘Facebook’ page.

Another example, Becton, Dickinson and Co. had created a web-based patient-engagement initiative called “Diabetes Learning Center” for the patients, not just to describe the causes of diabetes, but also to explain its symptoms and complications. From the website a patient can also learn how to inject insulin, along with detailed information about blood-glucose monitoring. They can even participate in interactive quizzes, download educational literature and learn through animated demonstrations about diabetes-care skills.

Many more Pharmaceutical Companies, such as Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Roche and Merck are now directly engaging with the customers through social media like Twitter, Facebook etc.

Technology is helping ‘Patient Empowerment’:

Today, Internet and various computer/ iPad and smart phone based applications have become great enablers for the patients to learn and obtain more information about their health, illnesses, symptoms, various diagnostic test results, including progress in various clinical trials, besides product pricing.

In some countries, patients also participate in the performance reviews of doctors and hospitals.

Conclusion:

Increasing general awareness and rapid access to information on diseases, products and the cost-effective treatment processes through Internet, in addition to fast communication within the patients/groups through social media like, ‘Twitter’ and ‘Facebook’ by more and more patients, I reckon, are expected to show the results of ‘Patient Empowerment’ initiatives, sooner than later, even in India.

Accelerated ‘Patient Empowerment’ initiatives with modern technological support, would help the patient groups to have a firm grip on the control lever of setting truly patient centric direction for the healthcare industry.

Working in unison by all stakeholders towards this direction, would herald the dawn of a new kind of laissez-faire in the healthcare space of India, the sole beneficiary of which would be the mankind at large.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Would e-Marketing Replace Medical Representatives?

Many people within the pharmaceutical industry cannot simply visualize a drug marketing environment without Medical Representatives (MRs) detailing their products to doctors for ever increasing prescription support. This much traditional sales force, for face to face interaction and transaction with the customers, is considered virtually indispensable and has formed the backbone for organic growth of the global pharma industry since decades.

It has emerged this way because, pharmaceutical industry sells drugs predominantly through doctors’ prescriptions, where MRs play a pivotal role to influence them directly or indirectly in various ways.

Therefore, for greater success through effective increase in customer focus, as compared to competition, pharma companies are engaged in expanding the size of their respective field-forces on an ongoing basis, though in varying numbers. However, over a period of time, this process has become very expensive, costing on an average around 17 to 20 percent, if not more, of the total expenditure of a company.

As a result, many companies have now started experiencing that their business return on ever increasing number of MRs is not commensurate to investments made on them, mainly in terms of productivity growth per headcount.

This overall scenario has now prompted many pharma players, across the world, to take a hard look at the evolving drug marketing scenario and expeditiously address the consequent issues, as I shall deliberate in this article.

MRs historical role:

Most of the pharma players use their MRs to implement predominantly the following time-tested strategic game plans to generate more and more prescriptions for their respective brands:

  • Detailing product features and benefits
  • Distributing free samples and gifts
  • Developing Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) for identified products
  • Arranging product oriented seminars, conferences and Continuing Medical Education (CME) programs
  • Monitoring doctors prescriptions and incentivizing them in various company specific ways
  • Giving necessary feedbacks to their respective companies

Productive ‘doctor calls’ becoming increasingly difficult:

According to an article titled “Are Sales Reps Necessary?” published in ‘The Pharma Marketing News’, the following details, besides others, were captured in the United States:

  • MRs’ average only 2 quality details per day (quality details include discussion of features, benefits, and data).
  • Only 43 percent of MRs ever gets past the receptionist
  • Only 7 percent of pharma rep visits last more than 2 minutes
  • Only 6 percent of physicians think representatives are very fair balanced
  • The physician remembers only 8 percent of MR calls

Optimal MR productivity – the key issues:

The issue of desired MR productivity is thus becoming a cause of great concern globally for the pharma players. This is mainly because, while the number of patients is fast increasing, the doctors are trying to see all these patients within their limited available time. As a result, each patient is getting lesser doctors’ time, even though the doctors are trying to provide optimal patient care in each patient visit.

In tandem, other obligations of various kinds, personal or otherwise, also overcrowd physicians’ time. In a situation like this, increasing number of MRs, which has almost doubled in the past decade, is now fiercely competing with each other to get a share of lesser and lesser available time of the doctors. Added to this, inflow of new doctors not being in line with the increasing inflow of patients, is making the situation even worse.

According to another study of CMI Communication Media Research, about half of physicians restrict visits from MRs in one-way or another. It reported, about half of cancer specialists (oncologists) are now saying that they would interact only on new products with MRs, while 47 percent of them indicated email as a preference to MR calls.

Surveys found that the oncologists are the most restrictive specialists, with only 19 percent allowing MRs without restrictions. Moreover, 20 percent of them would not see MRs at all and another 40 percent either require prior appointments or limit visits to particular hours of the day/week.

Downsizing sales force with e-marketing:

A paper published in the WSJ titled,Drug Makers Replace Reps With Digital Tools” states that pharmaceutical companies in the United States are downsizing their sales force with increasing usage of iPad apps and other digital tools for interacting with doctors.

Such widespread layoffs do signal to many that digital tools and technology have started replacing the MRs, at least in the United States, may be in a limited way to begin with.

Building relationship:

However, other group of industry watchers believe that eliminating MRs from the pharma marketing process could lead to a serious set back in the doctor-pharma company face to face relationship that is very important for success While rebutting this point, the pro e-marketing proponents  raise a counter question: Does such relationship now exist with most MRs so far as the high value target doctors are concerned?

e-marketing gradually taking roots:

Many fascinating experiments with e-marketing have now started in several places of the world with considerable success, in tandem with germination of even bolder and brighter ideas in this area. However, the above report mentioned the following:

  • AstraZeneca tracks what doctors view on the website and uses that information to tailor marketing content for the doctor during subsequent interactions. The company had reportedly said in 2010, that it plans to eliminate 10,400 jobs by 2014, including thousands of sales positions in Western markets amounting to around 16 percent of its work force. This step was to help the company saving around US$1.9 billion a year by 2014.
  • When German drug maker Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH launched the cardiovascular drug Pradaxa in the US, it reportedly put together a digital-marketing package to target doctors, including organizing webcasts for leading physicians to speak to other physicians about the drug, with considerable success.
  • Novo Nordisk in 2010 launched a website and iPad/iPhone application called ‘Coags Uncomplicated’, which offers tools to help doctors diagnose bleeding disorders. The site and app include a plug for Novo Nordisk’s drug NovoSeven, which helps stop bleeding related to acquired hemophilia. It has several other applications available on iTunes, including one that helps doctors calculating blood-sugar levels.
  • Some other companies offering iPhone and iPad based apps for doctors include among others, Sanofi, Merck, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis and Eli Lilly.

Advantages of e-marketing:

As I had indicated earlier in my blog post, ‘e-marketing’ would help creating customized, more impressive, self-guided by doctors and more focused presentations with significant reduction in the detailing cost/ product with improved productivity.

Moreover, ‘e-marketing’ would:

  • Make expensive printed promotional aids redundant
  • Eliminate time required and cost involved to deliver such material
  • Have the flexibility of change at any time
  • Ordering of just required samples online would help eliminating wastage

Fast increasingly number of doctors using Internet enabled computers/tablets and smart phones for professional purposes, especially in the urban areas, would facilitate this process.

Conclusion:

Keeping in mind this changing scenario, mindset and behavior of the doctors, as lesser and lesser time is available with the high value target customers for interaction with the MRs, the pharma players would require to take afresh a hard look at their own strategic marketing vision and principles to zero-in on the most effective mix. This approach, I reckon, is applicable more to the domestic players in India.

For high value target customers a combo-strategy would probably be more effective now. In this strategic game plan, MRs would continue to remain as the basic fabric of a drug marketing process, though in reduced numbers and augmented by increasing focus on new technologies/applications through iPad, smart phones, various Internet enabled tools, social networking sites and real time analytics. Formidable differential marketing thrust that would be created through skillful execution of this combo-strategy, is expected to be more effective in making both top and bottom line performance of a pharma player sustainably impressive to the stakeholders.

The name of the game is, therefore, impactfully delivering the core tangible and intangible product values to the doctors for desired outcome in their prescriptions decision making process, keeping in pace with the changing demand of time with a long-term ability to innovate.

That said, would e-marketing then replace MRs to a considerable extent in the years ahead?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Is The New ‘Market Based Pricing’ Model Fundamentally Flawed?

After a long wait of close to two decades, when the Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013) followed the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy 2012 (NPPP 2012) last year, it appeared that the new pharma price control regime is more acceptable to the industry than the previous, resulting in better over all implementation and compliance.

However, just within a year, the reality seems to be quite different. Not only the Ceiling Price (CP) calculation process of the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) based on DPCO 2013 appears to be fundamentally flawed, its misuse and abuse by some pharma players have also been the subject of great concern and consumer aghast.

The eternal ‘Cat and Mouse’ game continues:

Probably there would be many instances of pharmaceutical companies dodging the DPCO 2013. However, FDA, Maharashtra, has unearthed the following two instances, so far:

1. Favorable consumer expectations with well-hyped DPCO 2013 received a body blow for the first time, when the general public came to know through media reports, that too after almost a year, that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Consumer Healthcare having launched its new ‘Crocin Advance’ 500 mg with a higher price of Rs 30 for a strip of 15 tablets, has planned to gradually withdraw its conventional price controlled Crocin 500 mg brand costing around Rs 14 for a strip of 15 tablets to the patients . GSK Consumer Healthcare claims that Crocin Advance is a new drug and therefore should be outside price control.

According to IMS Health data, ‘Crocin Advance’ is currently the fifth largest brand among top Paracetamol branded generics, clocking a sales turnover of Rs 10.3 Crore during the last 12 months ending in February 2014.

2. The second instance of evading DPCO 2013 has also been reported by the media. In this case some other pharmaceutical companies have reportedly started selling the anti-lipid drug Atorvastatin in dosage forms of 20 mg and 40 mg, which are outside price control, instead of its price controlled 10 mg dosage form. Quoting the Maharashtra FDA, the report states: “Atorvastatin may face a similar kind of action from the state FDA as other overpriced brands of drugs as this drug has been overpriced five to 10 times more than the DPCO price. This kind of overcharging is a subject for investigation. Atorvastatin of 40 mg dosage is generally recommended for senior citizens.”

Tip of an Iceberg?

All these seem to be just the tip of an iceberg related to evasion of DPCO 2013 by some pharma black ships, raising costs of essential medicines for the patients. Ironically, what is happening now is an exact replica of the same old strategy that many pharma players got involved into to avoid price control under earlier DPCO 1995. Continuation of the same act of deceit with DPCO 2013 confirms that the ‘cat and mouse game’ to avoid price control is eternal in India, in the absence of any strong and exemplary deterrent.

Better late than never:

When Maharashtra FDA brought it to the notice of National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), the later asked GSK to immediately reduce the market price of ‘Crocin Advance’, as there is no proven additional therapeutic efficacy for the product. The price regulator also sought confirmation of the action taken by the company in this regard. Additionally, GSK Consumer Healthcare now faces consequential punitive measures from the NPPA for price overcharging. This action on the part of NPPA, in all probability, would get lost in the quagmire of litigation, as usually happens in India.

Be that as it may, I expect NPPA taking similar action for Atorvastatin too and increasing its vigil for such scant respect on patient-centric laws and policies of the country.

A brief recapitulation:

Just to recapitulate, DPCO 2013 has been fundamentally different from its ‘predecessor’ DPCO 1995, mainly on the following two counts:

1. Methodology of Price Control:

This has changed from earlier ‘Cost Based Pricing (CBP)’ to ‘Market Based Pricing (MBP)’ based on simple average of all products having 1 percent or more market share.

2. Span of Price Control:

In DPCO 1995, all formulations of 74 bulk drugs, selected based on specified criteria, were under cost based price control, covering over 1700 formulations. Whereas, in DPCO 2013 all essential drugs as mentioned in the National List of Essential Medicines 2011 (NLEM 2011) come under price control applying the above new methodology of MBP. DPCO 2013 brings around 652 formulations of 348 drugs under 27 therapeutic segments of the NLEM 2011, under price control.

Significant benefits of DPCO 2013 to the industry:

DPCO 2013 offers following three key advantages to the industry, both in the short and longer term:

  • MBP methodology in DPCO 2013 is considered by the industry as more transparent and less ‘intrusive’ than CBP methodology.
  • Span of price control with DPCO 2013 came down to 18 percent of the total pharmaceutical market covering around 610 formulations, as against 20 percent in DPCO 1995 covering over 1700 formulations.
  • Opportunity for automatic annual price increase for controlled formulations based on WPI, which was not there in DPCO 1995, is now available to the industry. Thus, in keeping with the relevant provision of DPCO 2013, NPPA has recently allowed the drug companies to increase the Maximum Retail Price (MRP) of the price controlled medicines, contributing 18 percent of the total market, by 6.32 percent effective April 1, 2014, while prices of balance 82 percent of drugs, that are outside price control, can go up by 10 percent every year.

Check on essential drugs going out of market:

Interestingly, DPCO 2013 has tried to prevent any possibility of an essential drug going out of the market without the knowledge of NPPA by incorporating the following provision in the order:

“Any manufacturer of scheduled formulation, intending to discontinue any scheduled formulation from the market shall issue a public notice and also intimate the Government in Form-IV of schedule-II of this order in this regard at least six month prior to the intended date of discontinuation and the Government may, in public interest, direct the manufacturer of the scheduled formulation to continue with required level of production or import for a period not exceeding one year, from the intended date of such discontinuation within a period of sixty days of receipt of such intimation.”

However, it is still not clear, whether or not GSK Consumer Healthcare had followed this stipulated provision for price controlled conventional Crocin formulations. At least, I do not remember having come across any such public notice, as yet.

Key concerns expressed with DPCO 2013:

The MBP methodology seems to be unique to India as CBP is more common in countries that follow drug price control. Hence the following concerns were expressed with DPCO 2013.

  • Reduction in drug prices with market-based pricing methodology is significantly less than the cost based ones. Hence, consumers will be much less benefitted with the new system.
  • Earlier cost based pricing system was not more transparent only because a large section from the industry reportedly did not co-operate with the NPPA in providing cost details, as required by them.
  • Serious apprehensions have been expressed about the quality of outsourced market data lacking adequate confidence level across the board, which now forms the basis of CP calculations.
  • Additionally, outsourced data would provide details only of around 480 out of 652 NLEM formulations. How will the data for remaining products be obtained and with what level of accuracy?

It is, therefore, believed now by many that DPCO 2013 is more of an outcome of a successful lobbying efforts of the pharmaceutical industry in India, rather than a robust pricing policy supported by a flawless methodology for CP calculations.

DPCO 2013 faces challenge in the Supreme Court:

As a result of the above apprehensions, a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) is now pending before the Supreme Court for hearing challenging DPCO 2013.

Ground Zero of the quality of outsourced market data:

While assessing from the ‘Ground Zero’, keeping aside instances of hoodwinking DPCO 2013 with tweaked formulations, the core issue of the quality of outsourced market data forming the bedrock of CP calculation by the NPPA, undoubtedly becomes more fundamental, creating huge discomfort for many pharma players .

Unlike DPCO 1995, where NPPA used to calculate the CP based on its own audits, data provided by the concerned companies and from many other reliable market sources, the calculations to arrive at the CP for DPCO 2013 products are based predominantly on data outsourced from IMS Health, if not solely.

IMS data does not always capture correct brand prices:

As stated above, many leading pharmaceutical companies are now reportedly pointing out repeatedly that the CP fixation by the NPPA is not accurate, as the IMS Health data does not represent the real prices in many cases.

This is not a new issue either. I have been hearing similar complaints since ages in different forum, wearing different hats and also from various other reliable industry sources. Moreover, NPPA and the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) have indicated several times in the past that IMS data do not capture the requisite details as needed for over 100 products featured in NLEM 2011.

According to Pharmabiz of April 2, 2014, some of the companies expressing the above apprehensions are Sun Pharma, Unichem Labs, Panacea Biotec, Win-Medicare, Albert David, Baxter (India), Indi Pharma and Gland Pharma.

Responding to such widespread complaints, the DoP has directed NPPA to revalidate the IMS data, now being used for CP calculations, for all notified medicines. Accordingly, NPPA has sought the relevant details from respective companies. However, till such data validation takes place, pharma players must comply with all CPs, as notified by the NPPA from time to time.

Difficulty in data validation:

In my view, it would not be easy for the NPPA to revalidate the IMS data due to the following reasons:

  • Those companies, whose prices are showing higher than the current ones in the IMS Health data, may not report to NPPA, as that could ultimately affect them adversely.
  • Pharma companies’ response, in general, to requests from NPPA for furnishing cost and price related information has traditionally been much less than encouraging.

The logjam to continue:

With this evolving scenario, I reckon, till the Supreme Court intervenes responding to the PIL on DPCO 2013 related issues, the dissatisfaction of the industry and the constraints of the NPPA would continue, patients being the primary sufferers.

Conclusion:

Despite the reported concern expressed in the 2014 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report on Foreign Trade Barriers over the Indian drug price control mechanisms as a deterrent to foreign investments, government price control for essential medicines in India is here to stay for a long haul, to uphold the patients’ health interest.

That said, the final verdict of the Supreme Court related to the PIL on the NPPP 2012, based on which DPCO 2013 has been worked out, is yet to come. Any unfavorable decision of the Honorable Court on the subject may push both the NPPP 2012 and DPCO 2013 back to square one, yet again.

In this backdrop, considering the key fundamental flaw in the CP calculation process of DPCO 2013 with associated loud hiccups as evidenced by the GSK Consumer Healthcare episode and others, would a well-considered verdict of the Supreme Court on the subject be more desirable for greater access to more affordable essential drugs by the patients in India?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Playing Hardball, Riding the Horse of ‘Innovation’

Media reports are now abuzz with various stories related to intense pressure being created by Big Pharma on the United States Government to declare India as a ‘Priority Foreign Country’ for initiating ‘Trade Sanctions’.

As we know, ‘Priority Foreign Country’ is the worst classification given by the United States to “foreign countries” that deny “adequate and effective” protection of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) or “fair and equitable market access” to the US.

One of the key factors that infuriated Big Pharma is the ‘patentability’ criterion of the Indian Patents Act 2005 captured in its section 3(d).  This denies grant of patent to those inventions, which are mere “discovery” of a “new form” of a “known substance” and do not result in increased efficacy, offering no significant treatment advantages over already existing drugs.

A brief perspective:

The sole requirement for any company to enjoy market monopoly with a medicine, for a specific period, with its associated commercial advantages, is obtaining a valid patent for that new drug substance from a competent authority of the concerned country. Marketing approval process and other requirements for the same of the drug regulators do not come in the way of the market monopoly status granted to patented products.

This is mainly because the drug regulators do not require to be convinced that a new drug is an improvement or more effective than the existing ones. As a consequence of which, there has been no compulsion for the Big Pharma to bring to the market only those New Molecular Entities (NMEs) that would significantly improve efficacy of a disease treatment benefitting the patients.

Choosing the easier path:

Developing any NME that is a breakthrough in the treatment of a disease is not just difficult and time consuming, it is very risky too. For this reason, once a new innovative drug gets well established in the market, many companies decide to produce their own versions of the same and obtain patent rights for the new ‘tweaked’ molecules, as is generally believed by many.

This approach of bringing ‘me-too’ types of so called ‘innovative’ drugs into the market is considered much less risky, takes lot lesser time in the R&D process, not as expensive and most importantly, enjoys all the commercial benefits that a break through NME would otherwise derive out of its invention, especially the market monopoly with free pricing.

In his well-known book titled ‘Bad Pharma’, Ben Goldacre stated that, as very often these ‘me-too’ drugs do not offer any significant therapeutic benefits, many people regard them as wasteful, an unnecessary use of product development money, potentially exposing trial participants to unnecessary harm for individual companies commercial gain, rather than any medical advancement.

‘Innovation’ of ‘me-too’ molecules:

Examples of some of the ‘me-too’ molecules are as follows:

  • Cemetidine – Ranitidine – Famotidine – Nizatidine – Roxatidine (to treat Acid-peptic disease)
  • Simvastatin – Pravastatin – Lovastatin – Pitavastatin – Atorvastatin – Fluvastatin – Rosuvastatin (to treat blood lipid disorder)
  • Captopril – Enalepril – Lisinopril – Fosinopril – Benzapril – Perindopril – Ramipiril – Quinalapril – Zofenopril (Anti-hypertensives)

Goldacre further highlighted in his book that despite this fact, pharma market does not behave accordingly. Unlike usual expectations that multiple competing drugs in the same disease area would bring the prices down, a Swedish data showed that the drugs considered by the US-FDA as showing no advantages over the existing ones, enter the market at the same or even at higher prices than the original ones. Consequently, the outcome of such innovations adversely impacts the patients and the payor including the government, as Big Pharma takes full advantage of market monopoly and free pricing for such drugs in the garb of innovation.

‘Innovation’ of ‘me-gain’ molecules:

Unlike the above ‘me-too’ drugs, which are new molecules, though work in a similar way to the original ones, another kind of patented drugs have now come-up in a dime a dozen.

Goldacre defined those drugs as ‘me-again’ drugs. These are the same molecule re-launched in the same market at the same price with a different patented ‘enantiomer’. Each of a pair of such molecules is a mirror image of each other e.g. esomeprazole (Nexium) is the left-handed version of the omeprazole molecule (Prilosec), which is a mixture of both left and right handed forms.

There is no dramatic difference between omeprazole and esomeprazole in any respect. Moreover, it is worth noting that concerned constituents of Big Pharma come out with ‘me-again’ drugs only at the end of the patent lives of the original ones. What then could be the reason?

Some examples of ‘me-again’ drugs are as follows:

Enantiomer/Brand Medical Condition Original Drug/Brand
Levocetirizine (Vozet) Allergies Cetirizine (Zyrtec)
Escitalopram (Lexapro) Depression Citalopram (Celexa)
Esomeprazole (Nexium) Acid reflux Omeprazole (Prilosec)
Desloratadine (Clarinex) Allergies Loratadine (Claritan)
Pregabalin (Lyrica) Seizures Gabapentin (Neurotonin)

Why do the doctors prescribe such drugs?

That is indeed a good question, why do the doctors prescribe such costly, avoidable and so called ‘innovative’ drugs? Well, don’t we know that already?

Section (3d) plugs the loophole:

To discourage market entry of high priced and avoidable ‘me-too’ and ‘me-again’ types of drugs that are also an outcome of so called pharma ‘innovations’, the Indian law makers very wisely introduced the section (3d), while amending the Indian Patents Act in 2005. This section, as indicated above, categorically states that inventions that are mere “discovery” of a “new form” of a “known substance” and do not result in increased efficacy of that substance are not patentable. This law has also passed the scrutiny of the Supreme Court of India in the Glivec case of Novartis.

With this Act, India has unambiguously reiterated that it does not support the grant of patents for inventions that are minor modifications of the original ones, effectively blocking the usual path of patents grant as followed by Big Pharma across the world to enjoy monopolistic commercial advantages of ‘frivolous’ innovations, as called by many experts in this area.

Consequent ire of Big Pharma:

This above action of Indian law makers has raised the ire of Big Pharma, as it has a huge commercial interest to protect ‘me-too’ and ‘me-again’ types of innovations in India, even if that comes at the cost of patients’ health interest.

Section (3d) of the Indian Patents Act, therefore, became a major hindrance in meeting the commercial goals of its constituents in India, as such molecules constitute a large majority of the total number of NMEs innovated globally.

As intense power-packed advocacy campaigns of the global pharma companies with the Government of India did not yield any meaningful result to get the section 3(d) amended, it unleashed the might of its well funded lobby groups having free access to the corridors of political power to play hardball with India, riding the horse of innovation and pooh-poohing patients’ interests.

Playing hardball:

The question therefore arises, would India tactfully reciprocate playing hardball or give in to the pressure of trade sanctions under ‘Priority Foreign Country’ categorization of the United States?

I reckon India would not give in. To state more emphatically, India just cannot give in now, under any circumstances.

Come May 16, 2014, the new Union Government of India would almost be ready take its position on the saddle. Thereafter, even if it prefers to give in to intense US political pressure just to avoid trade sanctions, in all practicality that would virtually be a non-starter. This is because, the new Government would unlikely to be in a position to garner enough votes in the Parliament to amend the section (3d), ignoring the general sentiment on this important public health related issue and political compulsions of many of its constituents on the subject.

Would America go to WTO?

Would the United States of America ultimately complain against India in the multilateral forum of the World Trade Organization (WTO) for alleged violation of the TRIPS Agreement? That is exactly the question that many people are asking today.

In this context it is worth noting, India has reiterated time and again that Indian Patents Act 2005 is in full compliance of the TRIPS Agreement and the Doha Declaration of 2001.

Since, no country has complained to WTO against India on this issue, as yet, despite so much of posturing and the noise generated the world over, it appears improbable that the US would now do so, though Big Pharma would continue playing hardball raising the same old bogey of protection of ‘innovation’ in a much higher pitch, cleverly camouflaging its hardcore vested commercial interests.

What happens, if WTO decides in favor of India?

In the multilateral forum, if the WTO decides in favor of India, there is much to loose for Big Pharma.

In that scenario, the Indian example would encourage a large number of countries to enact similar model of Patents Act fully complying with the TRIPS agreement, as vetted by the WTO.

Some has termed it as a refreshingly fresh “Alternative Model of Patent Law’, going away from the dominant IP model as is being propagated by the US.

As I had indicated in the past, countries like the Philippines, Brazil and South Africa have either emulated or strongly favoring this alternative model that favors protection of Intellectual Property (IP) and at the same time promotes access to new inventions to a large majority of the global population.

Conclusion:

I reckon, Big Pharma’s playing hardball with India, riding the horse of ‘innovation’, could ultimately boomerang.

The Government of India, irrespective of any political color, lineage or creed, is unlikely to be bullied by Big Pharma constituents any time soon.

More importantly, even in a worse case scenario, the Government would be incapable of getting the section (3d) amended by the Indian Parliament garnering majority of the lawmakers’ support and going against strong political and public voices on this issue.

Nevertheless, Big pharma would continue to wish it to happen… and that drags me to the good old saying:

“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.”

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Global New Product Launches: Recent Success Trend Unflattering?

New products are the lifeblood for any company, including the pharmaceutical players. Business performance and sustainable growth of the pharmaceutical industry, as a whole depend on quality of R&D output in terms of ‘New Molecules’, followed by successful development and launch of those new products by the global pharmaceutical innovators.

Post-patent expiry, robust development and ‘just in time’ launch of cheaper generic versions of those innovative products, in a mega scale, usually drive the growth of the generic pharmaceutical industry, globally.

It is worth noting that for the last several years, ‘Patent Cliff’ coupled with progressively drying up R&D pipelines and mostly unflattering new product launches, are taking heavy tolls on the business performance of the global pharmaceutical majors.

The changing dynamics need to be considered:

Echoing this development, a March 2014 report of McKinsey & Company states: “About two-thirds of drug launches don’t meet sales expectations. Improving that record requires pharmaceutical companies to recognize the world has changed and adjust their marketing accordingly.”

To analyze the situation now in perspective, let us start tracking the launches from 2006 and 2007.

10 Big Pharma Sales in 2012 from NMEs approved since 2007 – A comparison

According to a June 2013 report of the ‘FirstWord Pharma’, in 2012 the combined sales of 10 top Big Pharma constituents, as named in the tables below, from the New Molecular Entities (NMEs) approved by the US-FDA since 2007, were US$ 14.8 billion i.e. 4.9 percent of the total revenue of these 10 companies in that year from the patented drugs.

Individual performance of these 10 companies are as follows:

No. Company Sales US$ Million Sales from NMEs US$ Million As % of 2012 Sales
1. Novartis 32153 3445 10.7
2. J&J 25351 2593 10.3
3. BMS 17621 1495 8.5
4. GSK 28518 1282 4.5
5. Merck 35945 1515 4.2
6. Sanofi 30879 1265 4.1
7. Roche 37578 1238 3.3
8. Eli Lilly 20566 457 2.2
9. Pfizer 47496 1040 2.2
10 AstraZeneca 27925 449 1.6

(Source: FirstWord, June 2013)

The success rate: With 2007 as the base year for NMEs

This table shows that Novartis and Johnson & Johnson were the two most successful companies with the launch of such NMEs in 2012, as they generated 10.7 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively, of their total patented drugs sales from these NMEs, as against an average of 4.9 percent, as mentioned above, during that year.

If we now try to analyze the new product launch success rates of the 10 Big Pharma constituents, based on the contribution of these new products (launched since 2007) to their respective total sales in 2012, the following picture emerges:

  • Good:  More than 10 percent - 2 Companies (20 percent)
  • Average: Between 5 and 10 percent - 1 Company (10 percent)
  • Poor: Less than 5 percent - 7 Companies (70 percent)

The success rate: With 2006 as the base year for NMEs

It is interesting to note from this report that by extending the ‘review period’ to NMEs approved by the US-FDA between 2006 and 2012 (i.e. one additional year), revenues generated by these new drugs in 2012 double to US$ 29 billion – or approximately 10 percent (instead of earlier 4.9 percent) of the total combined branded drug sales of the same 10 Big Pharma constituents in the same year, as follows:

No. Company Sales US$ Million Sales from NMEs US$ Million As % of 2012 Sales
1. Merck 35945 7518 20.9
2. Novartis 32153 5843 18.2
3. J&J 25351 3939 15.5
4. BMS 17621 2514 14.3
5. Roche 37578 2818 7.5
6. Pfizer 47496 2946 6.2
7. GSK 28518 1282 4.5
8. Sanofi 30879 1265 4.1
9. Eli Lilly 20566 457 2.2
10 AstraZeneca 27925 449 1.6

(Source: FirstWord, June 2013)

No significant overall qualitative change:

Here also, though some numbers related to the new product launch success rates of the same 10 Big Pharma constituents, based on the contribution of the NMEs launched since 2006 to their respective total sales in 2012 do change, poor to average performance with the new products still remains quite high, as follows:

  • Good: More than 10 percent - 4 Companies (40 percent)
  • Average: Between 5 and 10 percent - 2 Company (20 percent)
  • Poor: Less than 5 percent - 4 Companies (40 percent)

However, at a company level, the broad success trend with new products does not change very significantly. Just two new products approved by the US-FDA in 2006 were off to flying starts. These were:

  • Januvia of Merck: Generated sales of US$ 5.7 billion in 2012
  • Lucentis of Novartis and Roche: Generated combined sales of US$ 4 billion in 2012

Is it practically ‘The End’ of blockbuster drugs era?

While considering the larger picture on the subject, does it mean that Januvia and Lucentis would mark the end of the golden era of global blockbuster drugs…at least for now?

This picture may get clearer with the following table, prompting possibly an affirmative answer:

Best selling NMEs launched since 2006:

No. Product Company Approval Year 2012 Sales in US$ Million
1. Januvia Merck 2006 5745
2. Lucentis Novartis 2006 2398
3. Lucentis Roche 2006 1580
4. Isentress Merck 2007 1515
5. Invega J&J 2006 1346
6. Sutent Pfizer 2006 1236
7. Gilenya Novartis 2010 1195
8. Stelara J&J 2009 1025
9. Sprycel BMS 2006 1019
10 Tasigna Novartis 2007  998

(Source: FirstWord, June 2013)

Successfully launched most recent product is also on a shaky ground:

The new game-changing hepatitis C drug of Gilead Sciences – Sovaldi, has generated a turnover of around US$ 140 million in less than a month’s time from its market launch. Analysts expect an annual turnover of around US$7 billion from this brand.

However, sustaining the current sales momentum for Sovaldi in the years ahead could indeed be challenging for Gilead, as Bristol-Myers Squibb is preparing to obtain FDA approval for its own hepatitis C treatment daclatasvir, which has already been cleared in Europe. In addition, AbbVie is also progressing fast with its novel three-drug fixed dose combination in the same therapy area.

Moreover, Sovaldi’s unusually high price has reportedly created a furore in the western market. It costs US$ 1,000 a pill, raising huge concern among insurers and state funded healthcare providers in the United States. The report states that three Democratic members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee have already demanded that Gilead Sciences must justify the price of Sovaldi.

Categorization of new drugs:

Analyzing the current situation the above McKinsey report categorizes the types of new products that are now being launched, as follows:

  • Roughly one in four launches involves drugs that are strongly differentiated from competing products.
  • More than half of upcoming launches are of moderately differentiated products in well-established disease areas, and the priority is to find a way to stand out from the crowd. This requires innovative approaches to unveil insights into stakeholder needs and behaviors that competitors do not have.
  • For roughly 15 percent of launches, the priority will be to establish unmet needs effectively to ensure access to a well-differentiated treatment for a targeted population. McKinsey call these launches “category creators.” Gardasil, launched in the un-established human papilloma virus market, is an example.
  • 8 percent of launches face the substantial challenge of launching an undifferentiated product in an un-established disease area.

Broad strategic steps prescribed:

To address this challenge effectively the above report underscores the need for a systematic approach for the pharma players as follows:

  • Establish unmet needs in a disease area,
  • Develop deep customer insight as a basis for a truly differentiated positioning
  • Land the products safely in the market
  • Maximize launch uptake
  • Use early experiences in the market to fine-tune ongoing launch activities

Conclusion:

Considering the prevailing scenario of ‘Patent Cliff’, coupled with progressively drying up R&D pipelines and mostly unflattering success with the new product launches, how would a company work out its new product launch strategy, is becoming increasingly a critical question to answer on priority.

To appropriately tune a new product in its long-term sales and profit growth trajectory, it is imperative to ensure that the product exhibits its winning trends as soon as it is fired from its launch pad.

This is absolutely essential, as it appears from the above study, around one in three launches has been good in meeting the planned expectations. This makes about two-thirds of new product launches falling well short of target.  It is noteworthy that 78 percent of those new products that fell short in their first year target, lagged in their second-year forecasts too. Further, 70 percent of those laggards did not measure up to the organizational expectations even during their third year in the market.

Thus, any inadvertent mistakes in this area could make the grand finale of intense product development and strategizing efforts over a number of years together with expenses of millions of dollars, unflattering, if not catastrophic, both in terms of top and bottom line score-card of the organization, as is happening more frequently during the last several years.

This trend needs to be reversed with the application of innovative minds and charting the uncharted frontiers, sooner the better, for a healthier global pharmaceutical industry, as we move on.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Loss of Ranbaxy, Gain of Big Pharma…And Two Intriguing Coincidences

In March 2014, the largest pharma player of India by market capitalization, Sun Pharma, became the latest of the large Indian pharma exporters facing the US-FDA ‘Import Ban’ for drugs manufactured at its Gujarat-based plant. This news came as a shocking surprise to many, including the stock market, as the home grown company has now attained an international stature being governed by a professional management team and steered by a Board that is chaired by a well-regarded non-Indian with decades of experience in the global pharmaceutical industry.

Just before that in January 2014, being slapped with the US-FDA drug ‘Import Ban’ of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) manufactured in its Toansa Plant of Punjab, the pharmaceutical business of Ranbaxy in the United States, with the products manufactured in its approved manufacturing facilities in India, came to a screeching halt.

It is worth noting that similar ‘Import Bans’ are already in place for the same company’s Dewas, Paonta Sahib, and Mohali production facilities. The combined impact of these bans now makes Ohm Laboratories plant of Ranbaxy, located in New Jersey, its sole generic drug manufacturing facility for the US market.

Considering that the US sales of Ranbaxy reportedly used to be around 57 percent of its total global turnover even in 2012, these import bans are undoubtedly a huge blow to the company, both financially as well as in terms of its business reputation.

Thus, the top priority of Ranbaxy under this situation is effectively addressing all the issues as raised by the US-FDA, especially in the area of documentation, as in the buyers’ market sellers cannot be the choosers.

A ‘Double Whammy’:

Meanwhile, prompted by theses ‘Import Bans’ on product quality ground and adding further woes to the company, the Supreme Court of India on March 15, 2014 reportedly issued notices to both the Central Government and Ranbaxy on a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) seeking not just cancellation of the manufacturing licenses of the company, but also a probe by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on the allegation of supplying adulterated drugs in the country.

Thus, it is a double whammy for Ranbaxy. The company would now require convincing the top court of the country that it manufactures and sells quality medicines for consumption of the patients in India.

However, Ranbaxy reportedly insisted that the drugs sold by it in the Indian market are safe and effective and that the company complies with all regulations of the country.

Could the situation now get even murkier?

During the process of judicial scrutiny, if the Supreme Court gets convinced with the above reply of Ranbaxy on this issue, the question that could possibly emerge is, how come the same company produces high quality drugs for the patients in India and allegedly substandard quality drugs for the patients of the United States? This could make the subject more complicated, if not murkier, internationally.

Two intriguing coincidences:

In the midst of all these, while connecting various similar looking and important dots, emerged during the last few years, a couple of clear coincidences comes to the fore, as follows:

1. Is the drug quality issue in India for exports limited only to US-FDA?

This brings us to the first interesting coincidence of drug ‘Import Bans’, involving large Indian drug exporters, coming mostly, if not only, from the US-FDA, although there are so   many other drug importing countries, including rest of the developed world.

Moreover, none of the Indian domestic companies had ever faced similar number of USFDA ‘Import Bans’ in the past, though they have been exporting to the United States from their FDA approved and inspected plants since quite a while. Therefore, it is worth figuring out why has it started happening now, that too repeatedly, and involving some of the largest global generic drug manufacturers from India.

Ranbaxy too is a large global player for generic pharmaceutical products. Besides India and the United States, the company markets its products both in East and West Europe, Latin America, Africa, Middle East, South Asia, South-East Asia and Asia-Pacific regions. Interestingly, though its saga related to US-FDA cGMP conformance in the four plants, culminating into drug ‘Import Bans’ in the United States, commenced as early as 2008, the company does not seem to have any issue with any other drug regulator anywhere in the world, not just yet.

According to the media report, UK and Australian drug regulators had commented that they are assessing the impact of the US action on Ranbaxy products sold in their countries. However, as on date Ranbaxy’s drug export to all those countries continue to remain as normal as before.

If over a period of time, it is proved that other foreign drug regulators do not have any similar quality related issues with Ranbaxy manufactured products, a serious joint evaluation of the entire chain of events related to Ranbaxy and others by the global regulatory experts would perhaps be warranted to provide a lasting solution on the subject.

2. Missed opportunities for ‘first to launch’ generic versions of blockbuster drugs:

The second coincidence is related to a series of missed opportunities, especially for Ranbaxy, related to ‘first to launch’ generic versions of several patent expired blockbuster drugs in the United States.

When the emerging dots associated with such lost opportunities for drugs like, Lipitor (Pfizer), Diovan (Novartis) and Nexium (AstraZeneca) are connected, a clear pattern emerges favoring Big Pharma and obviously adversely affecting companies like Ranbaxy.

Saga started with uncertainty over Lipitor generic Launch:

Like many other large Indian players, ‘first to launch’ strategy with new generic drugs has been the key focus of Ranbaxy since long, much before its serious trouble with the US-FDA begun in 2008. ‘Import Bans’ on two of its manufacturing facilities by the US regulator in that year created huge uncertainty in its launch of a generic version of Pfizer’s anti-lipid blockbuster drug Lipitor in 2011. On time launch of a generic version of Lipitor was estimated to have generated a turnover of around US $ 600 million for Ranbaxy in the first six months.

Despite its neck deep trouble with the US-FDA at that time, Ranbaxy ultimately did manage to launch generic Lipitor, after partnering with Teva Pharmaceutical of Israel.

The story continued with indefinite delay of Diovan generic launch:

Lipitor story was just the beginning of Ranbaxy’s trouble of not being able to translate its ‘first to launch’ advantage of patent-expired blockbuster drugs into commercial success, thus allowing the Big Pharma constituents to enjoy the market monopoly with their respective blockbuster drugs even after patent expiry.

Despite Ranbaxy holding the exclusive rights to market the first generic valsartan (Diovan of Novartis and Actos of Takeda) for 180 days, much to its dismay, even after valsartan patent expiry in September 2012, a generic version of the blockbuster antihypertensive is yet to see the light of the day. However, Mylan Inc. has, now launched a generic combination formulation of valsartan with hydrochlorothiazide.

US-FDA drug ‘Import Ban’ from the concerned manufacturing facility of Ranbaxy gave rise to this hurdle favoring the Big Pharma, as discussed above.

As a result, Novartis in July 2013 reportedly raised its guidance announcing that the company now expects full-year sales to grow at a low single-digit rate, where it had earlier predicted net sales to turn up flat. It also guided for core earnings to decline in the low single digits, revising guidance for a mid-single-digit drop.

Would it also delay the launch Nexium generic?

Ranbaxy had earlier created for itself yet another opportunity to become the first to launch a generic version of the blockbuster anti-peptic ulcerant drug of AstraZeneca – Nexium in the United States, as the drug goes off patent on May 27, 2014. However, due to another recent US-FDA import ban from the concerned plant of Ranbaxy, it now seems to be a distant reality.

That said, it has now been reported that Ranbaxy is in talks with at least two companies on sourcing ingredients for the generic version of Nexium to be able to launch its generic formulations in the United States immediately after the patent expiry.

In this context, any delay in the launch of generic Nexium, which incidentally is the second-biggest seller of AstraZeneca, would have a big impact on the company’s profit.

With the global sales of Nexium at US$ 3.87 billion and US sales at US$ 2.12 billion in 2013, retaining its monopoly status in the all-important US market beyond the end of May would not only limit a forecast decline in AstraZeneca’s 2014 earnings, but would also protect bonuses for top management of the British pharma giant, the above report says.

No Machiavellian Hypothesis:

By highlighting these coincidences, I have no intention to even attempting to postulate something like a ‘Machiavellian Hypothesis’. I just want to establish that intriguing coincidences do exist whatever may be the reasons.

Probably an in-depth study by independent experts in this field would be able to ferret out the real reasons behind these coincidences, including, why are the cGMP issues repeatedly arising only with the US-FDA?

Conclusion:

Be that as it may, delayed generic launches of Nexium (AstraZeneca) with US sales of US$ 2.12 billion, together with the same for Actos (Takeda) and Diovan (Novartis) recording a combined sales for US$ 8.55 billion, have indeed created almost a wind-fall gain for the respective ‘Big Pharma’ constituents and consequent huge losses for Ranbaxy. The first-to-file bonus on Actos alone was estimated to be more than US$ 200 million.

Though the US-FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg has reportedly clarified that the United States is ‘not targeting’ Indian pharma companies but just following a strict quality control regime for all products being imported into America, the following critical questions still float at the top of mind:

- Are all these missed opportunities of Ranbaxy, which favored Big Pharma immensely, just sheer coincidences of clash in timings between USFDA ‘Import Bans’ from four of its manufacturing facilities and the respective launch dates in the United States for the first generic versions of the three blockbuster drugs?

- When Indian generic drug manufacturers continue to export across the world without any problem thus far, why is a series of unprecedented ‘Import Bans’ on quality grounds now coming from the US-FDA in a quick succession decimating the image of Indian generic drug manufacturers?

At the end of the narrative, some wise men could well say that I am trying to connect the dots that do not exist at all. These are all imaginary or at best, sheer coincidences. It could well be just that, who knows? But…

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.