Sets 2013, Dawns 2014: Top 7 Pharma Developments

Posted on December 31, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Wish You Good Health, Happiness, Success and Prosperity in 2014

In this article I shall focus on ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’, both while ‘Looking Back to 2013′ and also during my ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′.

Looking Back to 2013:

While looking back, the ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’ unfolded in India during 2013, in my opinion, are as follows:

1. Supreme Court judgment on Glivec:

The landmark Supreme Court judgment on the Glivec case has vindicated, though much to the dismay of pharma MNCs, the need to strike a right balance between encouraging and protecting innovation, including incremental ones, and the public health interest of India.

2. DPCO 2013:

Following the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy (NPPP) of December 2012, the new Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013) signaled a significant departure from the decades old systems of arriving at both the ‘span’ and also the ‘methodology’ of drug price control in India. However, its implementation has been rather tardy as on today.

As a result, at the very beginning of the process of its effective roll-out, the new DPCO faltered badly. It created unprecedented complications and dead-locks not just for the pharmaceutical companies and the trade, but for the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), as well, which has not been able to announce the new ceiling prices for at least 100 essential drugs, even 8 months after notification of this order.

The pharma companies and the NGOs have already taken this policy to the court, though for different reasons. The rationale for the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) 2011 has also been questioned by many along with a strong demand for its immediate review.

Thus much awaited DPCO 2013 is still charting on a slippery ground.

3. India, China revoked 4 pharma patents:

In the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) arena many National Governments have now started asserting themselves against the prolonged hegemony of the Western World pressing for most stringent patent regime across the globe, at times even surreptitiously. Such assertions of these countries signal a clear tilt in the balance, favoring patients’ health interest rather than hefty gains in business profits, much to the delight of majority of world population.

Revocation of four drug patents by India and China within a fortnight during July-August 2013 period has thus raised many eyebrows, especially within the pharma Multinational Corporations (MNCs). In this short period, India has revoked three patents and China one.

While these unexpected and rather quick developments are probably double whammy for the pharma MNCs operating in India and China, a future trend would possibly emerge as soon as one is able to connect the evolving dots.

4. Supreme Court intervened in Clinical trials (CT):

With a damning stricture to the Indian Drug Regulator, the Supreme Court, in response to a PIL filed by the NGO Swasthya Adhikar Manch, came out heavily on the way Clinical Trials (CTs) are approved and conducted in the country.

Breaking the nexus decisively between a section of the powerful pharma lobby groups and the drug regulator, as highlighted even in the Parliamentary Committee report, the Ministry of Health, as reported to the Supreme Court, is now in the process of quickly putting in place a robust and transparent CT mechanism in India.

This well thought-out new system, besides ensuring patients’ safety and fair play for all, is expected to have the potential to help reaping a rich economic harvest through creation of a meaningful and vibrant CT industry in India, simultaneously benefitting millions of patients, in the years ahead.

5. US-FDA/UK-MHRA drug import bans:

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data, by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have culminated into several import bans of drugs manufactured in those units. All these incidents have just not invited disgrace to the country in this area, but also prompted other national regulators to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

This despicable mindset of the concerned key players, if remains unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming bright opportunities.

The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies.

6. Pharma FDI revisited in India:

After a series of inter-ministerial consultations, the Government of India has maintained 100 percent FDI in pharma brownfield projects through FIPB route. However, removal of the ‘non-compete’ clause in such agreements has made a significant difference in the pharma M&A landscape.

7. ‘No payment for prescriptions’:

Unprecedented acknowledgement and the decision of GSK’s global CEO for not making payments to any doctor, either for participating or speaking in seminars/conferences to influence prescription decision in favor of its brands, would indeed be considered as bold and laudable. This enunciation, if implemented in letter and spirit by all other players of the industry, could trigger a paradigm shift in the prescription demand generation process for pharmaceuticals brands.

Crystal Gazing 2014:

While ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′, once again, the following ‘Top 7 (most likely) Pharma Developments’, besides many brighter growth opportunities, come to the fore:

1. Public Interest Litigation (PIL) now pending before the Supreme Court challenging DPCO 2013 may put the ‘market based pricing’ concept in jeopardy, placing the pharma price control system back to square one.

2. The possibility of revision of NLEM 2011, as many essential drugs and combinations have still remained outside its purview, appears to be imminent. This decision, if taken, would bring other important drugs also under price control.

3. Universal Health Care (UHC) related pilot projects are likely to be implemented pan-India along with ‘free distribution of medicines’ from Government hospitals and health centers in 2014. Along side, more Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives may come up in the healthcare space improving access to quality healthcare to more number of patients.

4. With the Supreme Court interventions in response to the pending PILs, more stringent regulatory requirements for CT, Product Marketing approvals, Pricing of Patented Medicines and Ethical Marketing practices may come into force.

5. Possibilities of more number of patent challenges with consequent revocations and grant of several Compulsory Licenses (CL) for exorbitantly priced drugs in life-threatening disease areas like, cancer, loom large. At the same time, between 2013 and 2018, US$ 230 billion of sales would be at risk from patent expirations, offering a great opportunity to the Indian generic players to boost their exports in the developed markets of the world.

6. More consolidation within the pharmaceutical industry may take place with valuation still remaining high.

7. Overall pharma IPR scenario in India is expected to remain as robust and patient friendly as it is today, adding much to the worry of the MNCs and relief to the patients, in addition to the generic industry. More number of countries are expected to align with India in this important area.

Conclusion:

The year 2013, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India, was indeed eventful. The ‘Top Seven’ that I have picked-up, out of various interesting developments during the year, could in many ways throw-open greater challenges for 2014.

My ‘Crystal Gazing 2014’, would challenge the pharma players to jettison their old and traditional business mindsets, carving out new, time-specific, robust and market savvy strategic models to effectively harvest newer opportunities for growth.

That said, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to thrive in India with gusto, including the MNCs, mainly because of immense potential that the domestic market offers in its every conceivable business verticals, propelled by continuous high growth trend in the domestic consumption of medicines, excepting some minor aberrations.

The New Year 2014, I reckon, would herald yet another interesting paradigm for the pharma industry. A paradigm that would throw open many lucrative opportunities for growth, both global and local, and at the same time keep churning out different sets of rapidly evolving issues, requiring more innovative honed corporate skill-sets for their speedy redressal, as the time keeps ticking.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Access to Medicine: Losing Track in Cacophony

Posted on December 30, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Indian Healthcare space is by and large an arena, where perceptions prevail over the changing reality in many important areas. Consequently, fierce discourse in those areas mostly gives rise to a cacophony of ‘Your Perceptions Against Mine’.

It is intriguing, why even in some well-hyped research studies of recent times, multiple interpretations are made not based on specific analytics-based numbers, but around critical data gaps and then the vital ‘conclusion’ is craftily packaged in a particular way to reinforce a set of perceptions and view points.

Serious discourse on ‘Access to Medicine’ in India often falls in these data crevasses, resulting nothing more than abject cynicism and expert sermons sans accountability from all quarters. Suggestions for precise quantification of magnitude of the problem, so far as ‘Access to Medicine’ is concerned, and then measuring the same periodically for sustainable corrective measures, obviously fade away in the din of multiple shrill voices, heavily loaded with self-perceptions attempting to score favorable brownie points.

A quantifiable number on overall ‘access to medicines’ remains illusive:

A quantifiable recent number on overall ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ in India, which could well form the base to measure progress of the country in this critical area subsequently, still remains illusive.

It is an irony, no one seems to know today what is the current ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ in India, in real term.

A recent study too goes around it, but NOT into it:

A 2012 industry sponsored study carried out by IMS Consulting, instead of giving just one number for overall ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ in India, went around it by reiterating the obvious that ‘access’ has 4 dimensions such as, Physical Reach, Availability/Capacity, Quality/Functionality and Affordability.

That is fine. No issue. However, the much sought after number of overall ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ still remained illusory in this study too. Interestingly, there are no numbers available to public for each of the above 4 important dimensions either. Thus the cacophony got shriller.

Clutching on to ‘Dinosaurian data’ in modern times:

Against the above backdrop, like many others, both local and global, even the honorable President of India on January 16, 2013, while addressing the ASSOCHAM 10th Knowledge Millennium Summit, quoted the ‘World Medicines Situation of 2004 report’, the base year of which is reportedly 1999. This study indicated, ‘only 35% of the population of India, against 53% in Africa and 85% in China has access to modern medicines’.

Thus in the absence of any recently updated number, the ‘Dinosaurian data’ of 1999 (published in 2004) is being considered relevant by many even in 2013, including the esteemed industry body that probably provided those irrelevant data to the president of India’s office for his speech, at the beginning of this year.

Importance of capturing today’s ‘Access’ data to provide ‘Healthcare to all’:

There should not be even an iota of doubt that the above reported scenario has changed quite significantly, at least, during the last decade in India, making the 1999 (published in 2004) ‘Access to Medicines’ numbers irrelevant, having no sense whatsoever in 2013.

To drive home this point, I shall now focus on just three sets of parameters, besides many others, to vindicate my comment on ‘dinosaurian data’. These parameters are as follows:

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in per-capita expenditure on healthcare from 2006-11
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the domestic pharmaceutical industry in this period
Quantum of increase in use of public healthcare facilities

1. Per capita Healthcare expenditure from 2006-11:

Year	US $
1999	18.2
2004	28.7
2006	33.0
2007	39.9
2008	42.7
2009	43.6
2010	51.4
2011	59.1

(Source WHO Data)

The above table vey clearly highlights that in 1999, the base year of the above study, per capita healthcare expenditure in India was just US$ 18.2. The figure rose to US$ 28.7 in year 2004, when that study was published. The number reached to US $ 59.1 in 2011. This reflects a double digit Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in per capita healthcare expenditure of the country from the 2004 study to 2011.

No doubt, this number is still much less than many other countries. Nevertheless, in 2013, per capita healthcare expenditure in India will be even more, indicating significant increase in ‘Access’ as compared to 2004.

2. Growth of domestic pharmaceutical market:

According to the PwC – CII report titled “India Pharma Inc.: Gearing up for the next level of growth”, the domestic drug market has been clocking a CAGR of more than 15 percent over the last five years. Thus, high growth of the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) since the last decade, both from the urban and the rural areas, would certainly signal towards significant increase in the domestic consumption of medicines. Moreover, fast growing rural and semi-urban markets would also clearly support the argument in favor of increasing ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ in India.

A back of the envelope calculation:

Improvement in access as compared to what ‘World Medicines Situation of 2004 report’ had highlighted, may not have a linear relationship to the volume growth of the industry during this period. However, a large part of this growth could indeed be attributed to increase in overall consumption of drugs, leading to improvement in access to medicines in India.

For example, out of the reported 15 percent CAGR of the IPM, if one attributes just 8 percent volume growth/year to increased access to drugs, a back of the envelope calculation would indicate that during last nine years over the base year of 2004, the access to medicines has improved at least to 70 percent of the population, if not more, and has NOT remained just at 35 percent, as many tend to establish a point or two by quoting the above dated report.

Unfortunately, even the Government of India does not seem to be aware of this gradually improving trend, as evidenced in the honorable President of India’s speech in 2013, as quoted above. Official communications of the government also keep quoting the outdated statistics stating that 65 percent of the population of India does not have ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ even today.

Be that as it may, around 30 percent of Indian population would still perhaps not have ‘Access to Medicines’ in India. This issue needs immediate attention of the policy makers and can possibly be achieved through effective implementation of a holistic public health policy model like, ‘Universal Health Care (UHC)’.

3. Increase in use of public healthcare facilities:

According to a study done by the IMS Consulting Group in 2012, in rural India, which constitutes around 70 percent of the total 1.2 billion populations of India, usage of Government facilities for Out Patient (OP) care has increased from 22 percent in 2004 to 29 percent in 2012, mainly due to the impact of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). This increase will have significant impact in reducing ‘Out of pocket (OoP)’ healthcare expenses of the rural poor.

Overall impact on some key health indicators:

The same 2012 study of IMS Consulting highlights that an objective and comprehensive assessment of healthcare access in India was last undertaken in 2004, through a survey performed by the National Survey Sample Organization (NSSO).  The survey reported on multiple parameters related to healthcare, including morbidity in broad age groups, immunization status, episodes of outpatient/ inpatient treatment across geography/ income segments together with expenditure on treatment. These measures, the study indicates, were taken collectively to indicate the status of healthcare access.

According to this report, the Government of India had undertaken multiple programs to improve healthcare access. These programs have addressed numerous issues, in varying proportion, that are linked to healthcare access, including lack of infrastructure, high cost of treatment, and the quality and availability of treatment. Some of these programs have been enormously successful: for example, India is a polio-free country today, the study reinforces.

The study also highlights significant progress in some basic healthcare indicators. The examples cited are as follows:

Maternal mortality rate has decreased by ~50 percent, and was reported at 200 deaths per 100,000 live births in the year 2010 as compared to 390 a decade ago. A few states such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Kerala have already achieved the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of a maternal mortality ratio less than 109 maternal death per 100,000 live births, with multiple other states close to achieving this target.

Infant mortality rate has decreased by greater than 25 percent over the period 2000–2009, and was reported at 50 deaths per 1,000 live births. Correspondingly, the under-5 child mortality rate (U5MR) has decreased by similar percentage levels, and was reported at 64 deaths per 1,000 live births. While U5MR for urban India has achieved the MDG target of 42 the same for rural of 71 is significantly lagging the target level.

Immunization coverage has increased significantly, for example diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis immunization among 1 year olds has increased from 60% to 70%, and the Hepatitis B coverage has increased from 68% in 2005 to 91% in 2010.

National programs have successfully improved detection and cure rates for tuberculosis and leprosy.

No direct relationship established between healthcare spend and outcomes:

Though India’s per-capita healthcare spend has been lowest among the usually compared BRIC countries, the following quick example would clearly establish that the healthcare outcomes do not have a linear relationship with the per-capita healthcare spend either:

Per capita Healthcare expenditure in 2011: Country Comparison

Country	US $	World Rank	Physician/1000 people	Hospital/1000 people	Life expectancy at birth (years)
Brazil	1120.56	41	1.76	2.3	73.4
Russia	806.7	55	4.31	9.6	69.0
India	59.1	152	0.65	0.9	67.08
China	278.02	99	1.82	3.8	73.5

(Source: WHO data)

Thus, taking a cue from these numbers, India should decide at what percapita spend the country would possibly be able to ensure quality ‘access’ to healthcare for 100 percent of its population. Mere, comparison of percapita spend of each country, I reckon, may thus not mean much.

Conclusion:

The moot point, I reckon, is that, to measure progress in any sphere of activity, one will need to have a robust well-derived base point. Thereafter, progress needs to be monitored and quantified periodically from one point to the next.

So far as the access to healthcare in general and medicines in particular are concerned, it becomes difficult to fathom why is this basic approach still not being considered to measure progress in ‘Access’ and its rate in India.

As a result, discussions among the stakeholders do not take place around those updated numbers, either. Instead, what we hear is a high decibel cacophony of perceptions, at times groping around various dimensions of ‘Access’ and that too without quantification of each, as stated above. This makes the task all the more complicated in pursuit of providing ‘Healthcare to All’ in India.

That said, the question to ponder now:

Does any one know what is the current ‘Access to Modern Medicines’ number in India and at what rate the progress is being made in that direction to achieve ‘Health for All’ objective of the country?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The ‘TINA Factor’: A Hotspot for Patented Drugs

Posted on December 16, 2013 by Tapan Ray

An article published in a global business magazine on December 5, 2013 mentioned that Marijn Dekkers, the CEO of Bayer AG reportedly has said at the Financial Times Global Pharmaceutical & Biotech Conference held this month that:

“Bayer didn’t develop its cancer drug, Nexavar (sorafenib) for India but for Western Patients that can afford it.”

The head honcho deserves kudos for revealing his mind upfront, while inviting two quick questions, as follows:

If that is so, why did Bayer launch Nexavar in India?
Did Bayer have any other alternative or choice for not doing so, other than negotiating for a ‘Voluntary License’?

As Bayer already had decided against any ‘Voluntary License’ for Nexavar in India, the simple answer to both the questions is : There Is No Alternative (TINA). And…that’s my ‘TINA Factor’, now a hotspot for patented drugs in India.

I shall dwell on it below, just in a short while.

Bellicose stance for high drug prices and more stringent patent regime:

Everybody acknowledges, beyond even an iota of doubt, that the contribution of the global pharmaceutical industry in the ongoing fight of mankind against diseases of all kinds, is commendable and exemplary.

However, over a period of time, as the low hanging fruits of pharma R&D are in the process of getting all plucked, raw commerce mainly driven by likes of “The Wall Street” quarterly expectations, have started overriding public health considerations involving a large section of the society, across the world, including India.

In this evolving scenario, healthcare has to be extended to almost everybody in the society by the respective Governments in power with strong support from the pharma industry. Instead, to utter dismay of many, the later seems to have opted for a bellicose stance. Their lobby groups appear to be power playing with all might in the corridors of power, to make the product patent regime of faster growing emerging markets more and more stringent, restricting smooth entry of affordable generic or biosimilar drugs increasingly difficult.

Underlying reasons for Big Pharma’s near obsession to have in place an ever stringent patent regime, defying all public health interest particularly of the developing countries, I reckon, are mainly three-fold:

Grant of product patent for any innovation irrespective of triviality
To have absolute pricing freedom for patented drugs for unlimited profits
To enjoy and extend product monopoly status as long as possible

Probably, to camouflage these intents, the reasons for high prices of patented drugs are attributed to the over-used buzz-words – fostering and re-investing in innovation, which is more often underscored as frightfully expensive.

Fair enough, in that case, let the high cost of R&D be appropriately quantified involving independent experts and made known to public. It will then not be like a jig saw puzzle for people to understand the real intent or the truth behind high drug prices. Thereafter, practical solutions need be fleshed-out putting the bright brains and minds together to make new medicines affordable to patients, across the world.

Most probably, that is not to happen, unless a legally binding system of disclosure of expenses is made mandatory for R&D, just as the ‘Physician Payment Sunshine Act’ of the United States demands public disclosure of gifts and payments made to doctors by the pharma players and allied businesses.

On the contrary, incessant efforts by vested interests still continue to keep the patented drug prices beyond the reach of common man. The following are just some very recent examples:

Another ‘defiant move’ in drug pricing:

In another recent development, US-FDA on December 6, 2013 approved Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) of Gilead Sciences Inc. This new drug is reported to be a cure for chronic infection with hepatitis C virus, without co-administration of interferon.

According to the report of July 2013 of the World Health Organization (WHO), about 150 million people are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus, and more than 350, 000 people die every year from hepatitis C- related liver diseases, across the world.

Most interestingly, Gilead Sciences have reportedly decided to keep the price of Sovaldi at a staggering US$ 1,000 (Rs. 62,000) -a-day for one tablet to be continued for 12 weeks. Thus the cost of a three month course of treatment with Sovaldi would be a mind boggling sum of US$ 84,000 (Rs.L 5.21), just for one patient.

It is worth noting that the above price/table of Sovaldi, as decided by Gilead Sciences, has started culminating into a storm of protest, almost immediately, even in the United States (US). The biggest drug benefits manager in that country – Express Scripts Holding Co. in a decisive move to drive down spending on the medicines, reportedly plans to start a price war when Sovaldi comes to market next year or early in 2015 wearing a price tag of US$ 1,000 a pill.

Further, on this seemingly defiant pricing strategy, that too for a life saving drug affecting patients belonging to all strata of the society, ‘Doctors Without Borders’ have reportedly commented: “Using patents to block affordable versions of sofosbuvir and pricing this drug out of reach of the most vulnerable groups who need it most is simply putting profits before people’s lives.”

Brewing a fresh initiative for more stringent high drug price regime:

To foist stricter pharmaceutical patent regime, making access to affordable drugs for the world’s poor increasingly challenging, an initiative is reportedly brewing afresh led by the United States (US).

Ministers of Trade from 12 countries initiated a discussion on December 6, 2013 at Singapore to meet the US deadline of forging a deal on the proposed ‘Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP)’ before the end of 2013.

These twelve countries – Australia Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, USA and Vietnam, contributing 40 percent of the world economy, are expected to hammer out the TPP deal first, though other countries may hitch on thereafter.

However, after 4 days of intense negotiation, the US-led TPP talks ended on December 10, 2013, without beating into shape any deal. These countries would reportedly meet again on January 2014, in contrast to earlier plan.

The global human right groups like ‘Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF)’ and ‘Doctors Without Borders’ have reportedly commented, “The ‘Data Protection’ period will prevent drug regulatory agencies in TPP signatory countries from referencing data needed to approve lower-cost generic versions of a protected drug, delaying competition that would lead to cheaper prices”.

In a poll commissioned by ‘Avaaz’ – a global advocacy group, reportedly 62 percent of Americans, 63 percent of Australians, 70 percent of New Zealanders, and of 75 percent Chileans opposed limiting access to generic medicines through the patent proposal in TPP.

Quite expectedly, the powerful US pharma lobby group ‘Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)’ said, “It was necessary for companies to recover investments and conduct further research into new cures”.

Breath of fresh air:

The good news is that some prudent developments are also seen around in the midst of a monopolistic drug pricing scenario, offering a breath of fresh air. Some countries around the world, including an important payor in the Unites States, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) of UK which assesses the value of drugs for NHS use, and even ‘National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)’ of China, have now started taking note and proactive measures in different ways on monopolistic high drug prices.

A recent report highlighted that ‘National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)’ of China would examine and regulate the price-related monopolistic practices of six industries operating in the country, including pharmaceuticals and would crack down wherever they find excessively high prices.

Can India insulate itself from pricing onslaught?

Despite growing global pressure against ‘putting profits before people’s lives’, one may arguably expect more such initiatives spearheaded by Big Pharma to make the patent regime, of especially the emerging markets, more stringent in the years ahead.

That said, ‘The TINA Factor’, which I shall now dwell upon, would probably help reinforcing the protective shield of Indian patent regime against foreseeable assaults with strategies quite similar to as cited above, denying access to new life saving drugs to most of the general population of the country.

‘The TINA Factor’ and three ‘Alternatives’ available to MNCs:

Since enactment of patient-friendly patent laws by the Parliament of India effective January 1, 2005, many global pharma companies and their lobby groups have been continuously expressing immense displeasure and strong anger in many ways for obvious reasons, just as the CEO of Bayer AG did recently.

There are, of course, a few exceptions, such as Sir Andrew Witty, the global CEO of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), who has been publicly expressing balanced views on this subject in several occasions, so far.

Being driven by anger and possibly desperation any MNC may wish to choose one of the following three ‘Alternatives’ available to them:

Alternative 1: Do not apply for the product patent in India at all.

‘The TINA Factor’: In that case the product will be made available in a platter for the generic players to copy.

Alternative 2: Obtaining the relevant patent from the Indian Patent Office (IPO), do not launch the patented product in India.

‘The TINA Factor’: After three years from the date of grant of patent, as per the statute, the said product could become a candidate for CL on the ground that the patented invention has not been worked in India.

Alternative 3: Launch the product only at the international price.

‘The TINA Factor’: If any patented new product is not available to patients at a ‘reasonably affordable price’ or ‘reasonable requirements’ of patients with respect to the patented invention are not satisfied, again according to statutes, interested parties are free to apply for CL to the IPO, following the steps as specified in the Act. Moreover, the Government itself may issue CL in national emergencies or ‘extreme urgency’ for non-commercial use.

Considering the ‘TINA Factor’, it appears, if the new products do not conform to the ‘Indian Patents Act’ and are NOT launched with ‘reasonably affordable prices’ or ‘reasonable requirements’ of patients are NOT met with these new drugs, the possibility of their legal generic entry at much lower prices is rather high in India. CL granted by the IPO for Bayer’s Nexavar to NATCO vindicates this point.

Summing-up effects of the ‘TINA Factor’:

Many would now reckon that the ‘TINA Factor’, being a hotspot for patented drugs in India, has the potential for getting adopted by many other countries in not too distant future. Two of its palpable effects, as felt in the country so far, may be summed-up as follows:

It leaves no option to any MNC, other than launching their new products in India, especially after obtaining relevant patents from the IPO.

It also squashes apprehensions of many that discontented Big Pharma would be able stop launching patented new products in India, depriving a large number of patients of the country.

Conclusion:

‘The TINA Factor’, thus created by the lawmakers, is expected to remain undiluted, unless commensurate changes are made in the Indian Patents Act.

Not withstanding the reported anger expressed by the CEO of Bayer AG or recently reported ‘absurd pricing’ of Sovaldi, or even for that matter, fresh attempts that are now being made to cobble together a TPP deal, patented new products would continue to be launched in India, as they will receive marketing approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI).

Any possibility of dilution of the ‘TINA Factor’ seems remote now, though powerful overseas pharma lobby groups are investing heavily for a change to take place in various ways.

It also does not seem likely, at least in the near to mid-term, that India would be a party to its ‘Patents Act’ diluting any ‘Free Trade Agreement’ or remain unmoved with high drug prices like, US$ 1000/tablet for life saving drugs like sofosbuvir, more so, if those are considered essential medicines in the country.

Come 2014, it appears improbable that any new Union Government would be able to garner enough numbers in the Parliament to amend Indian Patents Act, buckling under pressure of powerful lobby groups, directly or indirectly, and daring to ignore public sentiment on this sensitive issue.

Considering all these, the point to ponder now:

While abhorring pro-patients ‘Patents Act’ of India, can the Big Pharma come out with any viable alternative today for NOT launching their life saving patented new drugs in the country with the ‘TINA Factor’ prevailing?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Pharma Horizon: Cloud, Rainbow And Smear

Posted on December 9, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Some recent papers contemplated that the patent cliff for blockbuster drugs has already reached the zenith and early signs of recovery should be visible from 2013 onwards. However, from analysis of the currently available data, contrary to the above belief, I reckon, the downtrend in global pharma is far from over, not just yet.

One of the telltale signs of this slump is near-term patent expiry of today’s blockbuster drugs, the impact of which will continue to keep the global pharma sky overcast with clouds for some more time, especially in absence of replaceable equivalents. Interestingly, on the flip side, a beautiful rainbow, as it were, also takes shape in the horizon, ushering-in a hope to a large number of patients for improved access to newer drugs, just as it does to the generic players for accelerating business growth.

That’s the good part of it, though for the generic drug industry. However, the bad part of the emerging scenario gives rise to a lurking fear of gloom and doom, emanating from self-created evitable smears and taints, blended in vessels of despicable mindsets.

Clouds:

While having a glimpse at that following table, the underlying impact of the dark clouds looming large on the global pharma horizon cannot just be wished away:

Total Patent Expiry:

Year	Value US$ Billion
2015	66
2014	34
2013	28
2012	55
Total	183

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

Thus, the negative impact from sales lost to patent expiry of blockbuster drugs of today, though declined from US$ 55 billion in 2012 to US$ 28 billion in 2013, the same would start climbing-up again to US$ 66 billion in 2015.

If we take a look at the product-wise details, the picture pans out as under:

Top 10 ‘Patent Expiry’ in 2014:

No.	Brand	Company	Disease	Sales 2012 US$ Million	Expiry
1.	Copaxone	Teva	MultipleSclerosis	3996	May 2014
2.	Nexium	AstraZeneca	Acid peptic	3994	May 2014
3.	Micardis/HCT	BoehringerIngelheim	Hypertension	2217	Jan 2014
4.	Sandostatin LAR	Novartis	Cancer	1512	June 2014
5.	Exforge/HCT	Novartis	Hypertension	1352	Oct 2014
6.	Nasonex	Merck	Resp. Allergy	1268	Jan 2014
7.	Trilipix	Abbvie	Anti-lipid	1098	Jan 2014
8.	Evista	Eli Lilly	Osteoporosis	1010	Mar 2014
9.	Renagel	Sanofi	Chronic Kidney Disease	861	Sep. 2014
10.	Restasis	Allergan	Chronic Dry Eye	792	May 2014

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

The above figures, therefore, do reinforce the hypothesis that the following factors would continue to make the best brains of global pharma burning the midnight oil in search of sustainable strategic blueprints, at least, for some more time:

- Mostly, high growth emerging markets of the world are generic drugs driven

- Increasing cost containment pressure of Governments and/or other payor

- Challenges from Intellectual Property (IP) and Market Access related issues

- Declining R&D productivity

- Shift in overall focus for new drugs on expensive biologics

- Markets turning more Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA)

Current strategy to deliver shareholder-value not sustainable:

Since last several years, one has witnessed, despite slowing down of sales growth, big pharma players, by and large, have not failed in delivering impressive shareholder returns. This has been possible mainly due to ruthless cost cutting across the board, restructuring of operational framework and taking measures like, increase in dividends and share repurchases.

These strategic measures, though laudable to keep the head above water, are just not sustainable over a period of time sans strong cashﬂow.

Thus, for a long haul, robust and consistent business growth with commensurate impact on the bottom-line generating smooth cashflow, is imperative for all these companies.

In this difficult ball game of developing sustainable cutting-edge strategies at an equally challenging time, the consolidation process within the industry would gain further momentum, where only the fittest corporations, led by great corporate brains, would manage to survive and thrive.

However, who all would successfully be able to squarely face the moments of truth, triumphantly seizing the opportunities frozen in time, in the fast changing paradigm of a seemingly VUCA world, is not more than a matter of speculation now.

The Rainbow:

As stated above, while this canopy formed with dark clouds keeps looming large at the global pharma horizon, a beautiful rainbow is simultaneously seen taking shape for the domestic Indian drug manufacturers to cash-on with well-orchestrated strategic measures. One of the critical success requirements for this sprint, is touching the tape in the finishing line to become first to introduce generic versions of the patent expired drugs, especially in the US market.

Indian pharma players have already demonstrated in the past that they do have the wherewithal of making such rare opportunities meaningful by offering affordable new drugs of high quality standards to a large number of patients, while simultaneously accelerating growth of their respective business operations.

Proven acumen even in biologics:

India has recently proven its acumen in the area of biologics too, by developing a biosimilar version of the complex biologic drug – Trastuzumab (Herceptin) of Roche, used for the treatment of breast cancer, and that too in a record time.

As is known to many, earlier in 2013 Roche decided not to defend its patents on Herceptin in India, which reportedly recorded local sales of about US$ 21 million in 2012. Many people opined at that time, it would not be easy for any company to develop biosimilar version of Trastuzumab, mainly due to the complexity involved in its clinical development. Hence, some diehards kept arguing, Roche would not be commercially impacted much for taking the above decision, at least in the near to mid term.

Surprising almost everybody, Biocon and its MNC partner Mylan not only developed an affordable biosimilar version of Trastuzumab successfully, but also got its marketing approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), thereby immensely benefitting a large number of breast cancer patients in India and hopefully even beyond.

Keeping ‘Eye on the ball’?

Details of ANDA status from the USFDA source probably indicate that several Indian players have started gearing up to move in that direction at a brisk pace, keeping their eyes well fixed on the ball.

The following table further indicates that in 2012 India ranked second, after the United States (US) in terms of number of ANDA approvals and in 2013 till October India ranks number one, overtaking the United States (US):

ANDA’s Granted in 2012 and upto October 2013):

Country	ANDA 2012	ANDA (October 2013)	Total Since 2007
United States	183	119	1191
India	196	138	993
Switzerland	20	12	134
Israel	28	13	133
Canada	27	13	116
Germany	20	6	107
UK	11	15	95
China	7	10	29

Smears:

Unfortunately, just out side the frame of the above kaleidoscope, one can see large spots of self created slimy smears, which can make the ‘Rainbow’ irrelevant, maintaining the horizon as cloudy even for the Indian generic players.

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have just not invited disgrace for the country in this area, but also reportedly prompted regulators from other nations trying to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

Such despicable mindsets of the concerned key players, if remain unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming opportunities.

We have one such ready example before us and that too is not an old one. The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

Another report of November 2013 states, “The Drug Controller General of India has ordered Sun Pharmaceutical, the country’s largest drug maker by market capitalization to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, a move that could slow down the company’s regulatory filings in India and possibly overseas as well.”

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies. According to a recent report Strides Arcolab will not get US$ 250 million of the US$ 1.75 billion anticipated from the sale of its injectable drugs unit to Mylan Inc unless regulatory concerns at Agila Specialities in Bangalore are resolved.

Thus the smears though for now are confined to a few large manufacturing units of Indian Pharma, including some located overseas, may eventually play the spoil sport, trashing all hopes seen through the rainbow in the bins of shame.

Conclusion:

In the balance of probability, I believe, the clouds of uncertainty would continue to loom large over the global pharma, at least, till 2015.

However, in the midst of it, heralds a ‘never before opportunity’ for Indian pharma to cash on the early fruits of forthcoming patent expiries of today’s blockbuster drugs, not just for them, but for patients at large.

Already demonstrated capabilities of the homegrown players, trigger expectations of making it happen. The encouraging trend of grant of ANDAs in the US further reinforces this belief.

Despite all these, a lurking fear does creep in. This evitable fear finds its root in repeated fraudulent behavior of some Indian drug manufacturers, seriously compromising with cGMP standards of global drug regulators, including lying and falsification of data generated, thus playing a spoil sport by ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’, as it were.

That said, the question to ponder now is: In the ‘Pharma Horizon’ what would ultimately prevail in the short to medium term, especially in the Indian context – Clouds, The Rainbow or Smears?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Public Healthcare Space: Evaluating Three Fresh Edicts

Posted on December 2, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Medicines constitute a significant cost component of modern healthcare systems across the world. However, in India the situation is even worse, where as per recent studies, drugs contribute as high as around 70 percent of the total treatment cost. This is mainly because overall healthcare system in the country is fundamentally different not just from the developed world, but also from many other developing countries like, China, Brazil, South Africa and Thailand, to name a few.

In most of those countries significant expenses towards healthcare including medicines are reimbursed either by the Governments or through health insurance or similar mechanisms. However, the Indian situation is just the reverse, where around 72 percent of overall healthcare costs, including medicines, are private or Out of Pocket (OoP), incurred by the individuals/families.

According to a recent report, ‘about 38 million people in India (which is more than Canada’s population) fall below the poverty line every year due to healthcare expenses, of which 70% is on purchase of drugs’, as stated above.

In this context, it is worth noting that for patented drugs, the Drug Policy of December 2012 clearly articulates that Government of India will follow the approach of price negotiation with the respective companies. Unfortunately, work done in this so important area by the concerned authority, so far, has been rather superficial, if not shoddy. Most of the patented products, which are prohibitively expensive, continue to remain out of reach of a vast majority of patients in india.

Expenditure towards healthcare – a fundamental need:

Expenditure towards healthcare in India, which is largely private, highly exploitative and thus expensive, is absolutely essential for all, either to be able to earn a living for a family or for maintaining a reasonable quality of life.

According to an ‘Access Survey’ conducted by IMS Consulting Group in 2012, ‘Out Patient (OP)’ treatment costs in private care is ~2-3 times that of public and in case of ‘In-Patient (IP)’ care it is ~4-8 times the cost of Public care.

Focus has not been just enough:

Since 1970, the Government of India and various States have been adopting measures including, National Health Mission (NHM), Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), Drug Price Control Order (DPCO), besides others, to make healthcare in general and medicines in particular affordable and accessible to the common man. However, these measures though essential, have not delivered quite well when measured against the set objectives. This keeps on happening, due to lack of accountability and inefficient Government control over the processes involved together with fast increasing exploitative mindset in the private healthcare space, over the last several decades.

Health being a State subject inequity in access:

Health being a State subject in India, there has been large variations in public healthcare spend within various States of the country. Some of the poorer States have low per capita public healthcare expenditure and some of the richer states incur significantly more, leading to huge inequity of access, especially among the poorer sections of the society. (Source: IMS Consulting 2012)

Three fresh edicts:

In the above backdrop, the decision of the Government of India to increase the National Health Expenditure Budget from 1.2% to 2.5% of GDP in the 12^th Five Year Plan of India in 2012 has the potential to be a game changer in the public healthcare space of India.

It is envisaged that this decent increase in the budgetary allocation will help initiating the process of Universal Health Care (UHC) to ensure free access to essential health services for every citizen of the country, including cashless in-patient and out-patient treatment for primary, secondary and tertiary care.

Probably as a precursor to UHC, the Government of India has announced three fresh edicts:

1. Budgetary clearance for ‘Free distribution of essential medicines’ by the States

2. Notification for operationalizing the new ‘Central Medical Services Society (CMSS)’ to streamline the drug procurement system

3. Announcement for implementation of ‘Standard Treatment Guidelines (STGs)’

The above edicts are indeed laudatory, as these measures, if taken effectively in tandem would also help maximizing overall productivity of the public healthcare delivery systems, immensely. This is expected mainly because, the process would require avoidance of unnecessary medicines and diagnostics tests, chain of multiple doctor visits starting from GPs, specialists to super specialists, besides simultaneous re-engineering of below par public healthcare delivery systems of the country.

1. Budgetary clearance for free distribution of essential medicines by the States:

Late 2012, the Union Government made its first major move by formally clearing Rs. 13,000 Crore (around US$ 2.2 billion) towards providing free medicines for all through government hospitals and health centers. The State Governments under National Health Mission to utilize this fund for purchase and free distribution of essential medicines. Some State Governments are already in the process of implementing this scheme, though effective implementation of the same, across the country, still remains a challenge.

This new scheme, I reckon, has also the potential to hasten the overall growth of the pharmaceutical industry, as poor patients who could not afford will now have access to essential medicines. On the other hand, rapidly growing middle class population will continue to favor branded generic drugs prescribed by the doctors at the private hospitals and clinics.

Some people are apprehending that generic drug makers will have brighter days as the project starts rolling on. This apprehension is based on the assumption that large branded generic players will be unable to take part in this big ticket drug procurement process of the Government, which seems to be imaginary at this stage.

However, in my view, it could well be a win-win situation for all types of players in the industry, where both the generic-generic and branded-generic businesses could continue to grow simultaneously.

That said procedural delays and drug quality issues, while procuring cheaper generics, might pose to be a great challenge for the Government to ensure speedier implementation of this project. Drug regulatory and law enforcing authorities will require to be extremely vigilant to ensure that while sourcing cheaper generic drugs, “Public health and safety” due to quality issues do not get compromised in any way.

POTENTIALITY: Significant increase in access to medicines and simultaneous sharp reduction on OoP expenses.

2. Operationalization of CMSS for drug procurement:

Recently this year, the Union Health Ministry issuing the final notification reportedly has made the drug procurement system through Central Medical Services Society (CMSS) formally operational.

The drug procurement for different flagship program, of the Government like National Health Mission, will now be done through the CMSS.

The notification says:

The CMSS will be responsible for procuring health sector goods in a transparent and cost-effective manner and distributing them to the States/UTs by setting up an IT enabled supply chain infrastructure including warehouses in 50 locations.

The main objective of CMSS is to ensure uninterrupted supply of health-sector goods to the state Government, which will then maintain the flow to the govt. health facilities such as district hospitals, primary health centers and community health centers.

All decisions on procurement will be taken by the CMSS without any reference to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The Ministry will be responsible only for policy decisions concerning procurement and for monitoring its performance.

The CMSS will also assist the state governments to set up similar organizations in states to reform their procurement.

The Government has appointed the Director General and other key persons to run the organization, which will look to eliminate deficiencies in the existing system of purchasing medicines, vaccines, contraceptives and medical equipment for all government’s flagship program.

At present, the ministry procures drugs departmentally and through agents, drawing flaks and raking controversies at regular intervals.

This seemingly transparent drug procurement process for public use, would prompt tough price negotiations with the manufacturers for purchase of medicines leading to significant reduction in drug prices, as evidenced already in the States like, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan.

POTENTIALITY: Significant reduction in public healthcare costs, especially for medicines.

3. Announcement for implementation of Standard Treatment Guidelines (STGs):

Another recent news that Standard Treatment Guidelines (STGs) for 20 disciplines will soon be put in place in India is indeed a breath of fresh air. The centers of excellence for healthcare, both public and private, for around 1.2 billion population of the country, are still rather limited.

STG is usually defined as a systematically developed statement designed to assist practitioners and patients in making decisions about appropriate cost-effective treatment for specific disease areas.

For each disease area, the treatment should include “the name, dosage form, strength, average dose (pediatric and adult), number of doses per day, and number of days of treatment. STG also includes specific referral criteria from a lower to a higher level of the diagnostic and treatment requirements.

For an emerging economy, like India, formulation of STGs would ensure cost-effective healthcare benefits to a vast majority of its population.

STGs, therefore, will provide:

- Standardized guidance to practitioners

- Cost-effective ‘health outcomes’ based services

The Ministry of Health is now reportedly mulling to streamline in a phased manner the disease treatment procedures and protocols by introducing STGs in 20 disciplines under the ‘Clinical Establishments Act’ of the country. These disciplines are Cardiovascular, Endocrinology, ENT, Gastroenterology, General Surgery, Interventional Radiology, Laboratory Medicine, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Organ Transplant, Pediatrics, Oncology, Urology, Nephrology, GI Surgery, Medicine Respiratory, Medicine Non-Respiratory, Critical Care, Ophthalmology, Neurology and Orthopedics.

The National Council for Clinical Establishments (NCCE) is the apex body under the Clinical Establishments Act. STGs, therefore, will be binding on all hospitals and establishments registered under the Clinical Establishments Act 2010.

The Council has already deliberated on the draft STGs prepared by the experts in the respective disciplines of medicines. Surgical intervention in cardiovascular diseases reportedly will assume priority while implementing the STGs.

It is expected that the first of the STGs will be announced soon.

Currently only Uttar Pradesh, Mizoram, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand, apart from all Union Territories, have adopted the Act. Again, health being a State subject in India, all the States of the country will need to enforce this Act to make the initiative successful. However, states like West Bengal have their own Clinical Establishment Act, while Tamil Nadu has its own STGs.

Incidentally, putting STGs in place has been one of the long-standing demands of many, including the medical insurance companies. This is mainly because, laid-down protocols will make the hospitals avoiding unnecessary procedures on insured patients, thereby reducing the cost of treatment significantly.

POTENTIALITY: Huge reduction in healthcare cost, avoiding wastage in every step of any disease treatment. This could also help the medical insurance companies containing hospitalization costs, hopefully leading to reduced insurance premium.

Conclusions:   

All these three edicts of the Government, do promise a huge potential to help containing the overall cost of treatment in general and the costs of medicines in particular.

Effective implementation of these important initiatives would call for a significant change in mindset of all concerned. Doctors, hopefully, would also avoid using those expensive drugs having no significant improvement in ‘health outcomes’ over the cheaper alternatives.

STGs would initially need to be encouraged not just through self-regulation of the medical profession, but by the pharmaceutical industry and other allied interested parties in this area, as well. If ‘self-regulation’ does not work, stringent regulatory measures must be enforced by the Government to protect patients’ health interest.

No doubt both the Union and the State Governments of India would still have lot to chew in pursuit of ensuring affordable healthcare in general and medicines in particular, to all.

That said, would expectations of crafty implementation of these edicts, at least, flicker a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy and exploitative overall healthcare environment of the country?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Pharma FDI Debate: Highly Opinionated, Sans Assessment of Tangible Outcomes?

Posted on November 18, 2013 by Tapan Ray

In 2001, the Government of India (GoI) allowed 100 percent Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the pharmaceutical sector through automatic route to attract more investments for new asset creation, boost R&D, new job creation and ultimately to help aligning Indian pharma with the modern pharma world in terms of capacity, capability, wherewithal, reach and value creation.

Thereafter, several major FDI followed, such as:

No.	Company	Acquirer	Value US$M	Year
1.	Ranbaxy	Daiichi Sankyo	4600	2008
2.	Shantha Biotechnics	Sanofi Pasteur	781	2009
3.	Piramal Healthcare	Abbott	3700	2010
4.	Orchid Chemicals	Hospira	200	2012
5.	Agila Specialties	Mylan	1850	2013

FDI started coming:

Even recently, in April- June period of 2013, with a capital inflow of around US$ 1 billion, the pharma sector became the brightest star in otherwise gloomy FDI scenario of India.

However, out of 67 FDI investments till September 2011, only one was in the Greenfield area. It is now clear that the liberal pharma FDI policy is being predominantly used for taking overs the domestic pharma companies, as indicated earlier.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data reveals that between April 2012 and April 2013, US$ 989 million FDI was received in brownfield investments, and just US$ 87.3 million in Greenfield investments.

As a result, in 2010 pharma Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) captured over 25 percent of the domestic Indian market, as against just around 15 percent in 2005.

An assessment thus far:

While assessing the outcomes of liberal pharma FDI regime, especially at a time when India is seeking foreign investments in many other sectors, following facts surface:

New asset creation:

Most of the FDIs in pharma, during this period, have been substitution of domestic capital by foreign capital, rather than any significant new asset creation.

Investment in fixed assets (1994-95 to (2009-10):

Companies	Rs. Crore	Contribution %
Indian	54,010	94.7
MNC	3,022	5.3
Total	57,032	100

(Source: IPA)

Thus contrary to the expectations of GoI, there has been no significant increase in contribution in fixed assets by the pharma MNCs, despite liberalization of FDI.

Similarly, the available facts indicate that 100 percent FDI through automatic route in the pharma sector has not contributed in terms of creation of new modern production facilities, nor has it strengthened the R&D space of the country. The liberalized policy has not contributed to significantly increase in the employment generation by the pharma MNCs in those important areas, either.

The following figures would vindicate this point:

R&D Spend:

Companies	1994-95(Rs. Crore)	Contribution %	2009-10(Rs. Crore)	Contribution %
Indian	80.61	55.7	3,342.22	78.1
MNC	64.13	44.3	934.40	21.9
Total	144.74	100	4,276.32	100

(Source: IPA)

The above table vindicates that post liberalization of FDI regime, MNC contribution % in R&D instead of showing any increase, has significantly gone down.

Wage Bill/ Job Creation:

Companies	1994-95(Rs. Crore)	Contribution %	2009-10(Rs. Crore)	Contribution %
Indian	664	65.5	8,172	87.1
MNC	350	34.5	1,215	12.9
Total	1,014	100	9,387	100

(Source: CMIE)

In the area of job creation/wage bills, as well, liberalized FDI has not shown any increasing trend in terms of contribution % in favor of the MNCs.

Delay in launch of cheaper generics:

There are instances that the acquired entity was not allowed to use flexibilities such as patent challenges to introduce new affordable generic medicines.

The withdrawal of all patent challenges by Ranbaxy on Pfizer’s blockbuster medicine Lipitor filed in more than eight countries immediately after its acquisition by Daiichi-Sankyo, is a case in point.

Key concerns expressed:

Brownfield acquisitions seem to have affected the entire pharma spectrum, spanning across manufacturing/ marketing of oral formulations; injectibles; specialized oncology verticals; vaccines; consumables and devices, with no tangible perceptible benefits noted just yet.

Concerns have been expressed about some sectors, which are very sensitive, such as, cancer injectibles and vaccines.

Moreover, domestic Indian pharma exports generic medicines worth around US$ 13 billion every year establishing itself as a major pharmaceutical exporter of the world and is currently the net foreign exchange earner for the country. If the Government allows the domestic manufacturing facilities of strategic importance to be taken over by the MNCs, some experts feel, it would adversely impact the pharmaceutical export turnover of the country, besides compromising with the domestic capacity while facing epidemics, if any or other health exigencies. It would also have a negative fall out on the supply of affordable generic medicines to other developing nations across the world.

Countries such as Brazil and Thailand have a robust public sector in the pharma space. Therefore, their concerns are less. Since India doesn’t have a robust public sector to fall back on, many experts feel that unrestrained acquisitions in the brownfield sector could be a serious public health concern.

Some conditions proposed:

The DIPP proposal reportedly wants to make certain conditions mandatory for the company attracting FDI, such as:

If a company manufactures any of the 348 essential drugs featuring in the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), the highest level of production of that drug in the last three years should be maintained for the next five years
The acquirer foreign company would not be allowed to close down the existing R&D centres and would require to mandatorily invest upto 25 per cent of the FDI in the new unit or R&D facility. The total investment as per the proposed condition would have to be incurred within 3 years of the acquisition.
Reduction of FDI cap to 49 per cent in rare or critical pharma verticals, as discussed above.
If there is any transfer of technology it must be immediately communicated to the administrative ministries and FIPB

Vaccines and cancer injectibles, which have a limited number of suppliers, could fall under the purview of even greater scrutiny.

Conclusion:

The Ministries of Health and Commerce & Industries, which are in favor of restricting FDI in pharma stricter, are now facing stiff opposition from the Finance Ministry and the Planning Commission.

The Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) has now repotedly prepared a draft Cabinet Note after consulting the ministries of Finance, Pharma and Health, besides others. However, as comments from some ministries came rather late, the DIPP is reportedly moving a supplementary note on this subject.

The matter is likely to come up before the cabinet by end November/December 2013.

While FDI in pharma is much desirable, it is equally important to ensure that a right balance is maintained in India, where majority of the populations face a humongous challenge concerning access to affordable healthcare in general and affordable medicines in particular.

There is, therefore, an urgent need for critical assessment of tangible outcomes of all pharma FDIs in India as on date, based on meaningful parameters. This would help the Government while taking the final decision, either in favor of continuing with the liberalized FDI policy or modifying it as required, for the best interest of country.

Otherwise, without putting the hard facts, generated from India, on the table, is it not becoming yet another highly opinionated debate in its ilk, between the mighty MNC pharma lobby groups either directly or indirectly, the Government albeit in discordant voices and other members of the society?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Are We Taking Safe and Effective Medicines?

Posted on November 13, 2013 by Tapan Ray

The above headline is in no way intended to mean that this discussion is on spurious or counterfeit drugs.

Today’s deliberation is on the licensed drugs, which are manufactured in India, for the patients of the country, by the manufacturers holding valid drug licenses from the Indian regulators.

Close on the heels of my article titled, “USFDA ‘Import Bans’: The Malady Calls For Strong Bitter Pills “, another equally serious incident related to drug safety, came to the fore.

Fabricated data from the Contract Manufacturer of large companies:

On November 12, 2013, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) was quoted saying that the investigative team of the drug regulator concluded that all the data submitted by Puducherry-based contract drug manufacturer GuruFcure, while seeking approval for manufacturing seven fixed dose combination drugs, are ‘fabricated’ and not ‘authentic’.

GuruFcure, which started operations in 2007 and calls itself “one of the leading pharmaceutical formulation manufacturers in India”, reportedly manufacture drugs for the leading pharma MNC and Indian companies and Indian companies such as:

Abbott
Alkem
Glenmark
Wockhardt
Unichem
Intas Pharma, among others.

Though, as per media report, Wockhardt and Glenmark said that these two companies are not currently associated with GuruFcure, the fact remains that they did market drugs produced by this contract manufacture in the past and the patients consumed those drugs against doctors’ precriptions.

Large players need to set examples:

The largest pharmaceutical company in India with highest share of the Indian Pharmaceutical Market – Abbott, has also been reported to get some of their drugs manufactured by this contract manufacturer.

Not a solitary example:

Just prior to this incident, in November 8, 2013, the DCGI reportedly ordered the Indian pharma major Sun Pharmaceuticals to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, after discovering that the company does not have the requisite approval from the central government for operating the laboratory. The DCGI has decided not to accept future applications and will not process existing new drug filings that Sun Pharma has made from the Mumbai laboratory until the company gets an approval.

Tardy regulatory system fuels apprehensions:

In India, many large, medium and small units get their products from the contract drug manufacturers. As compared to the USFDA inspection data, there are virtually no public data available on the details of inspections carried out at these plants by the drug regulators indicating the level of cGMP compliance.

Health being a state subject in India, State Drug Controllers should play a critical role in ensuring drug safety for patients through regular inspection of these manufacturing facilities on cGMP compliance.

Conclusion:

If cGMP violations can take place for drug exports, despite rigorous compliance checks by the foreign drug regulators, what could possibly happen when the same system is so tardy in India?

While the MNCs boast on their highest drug regulatory compliance standards, even for contract manufacturers, why do they keep relationships with those getting caught for fraudulent practices, is equally difficult to fathom.

One may possibly describe such incidents as just aberrations. However, that conclusion can only be drawn, when we have Drug Controllers’ cGMP inspection data for a large number of drug manufacturing units in India with details. Unfortunately, that is not the case, in any way.

In such an environment in India, the moot question that comes at the top of mind, “Are we taking safe and effective drugs, whenever required?”

By: Tapan J. Ray

USFDA ‘Import Bans’: The Malady Calls For Strong Bitter Pills

Posted on November 11, 2013 by Tapan Ray

It is a matter of pride that Indian pharmaceutical industry is the second largest exporter of drugs and pharmaceuticals globally, generating revenue of around US$ 13 billion in 2012 with a growth of 30 percent (Source: Pharmexcil).

Though sounds awkward, it is a reality that India is a country where ‘export quality’ attracts a premium. Unintentionally though, with this attitude, we indirectly accept that Indian product quality for domestic consumption is not as good.

‘Export quality’ being questioned seriously:

Unfortunately today, increasing number of even ‘export quality’ drug manufacturing units in India are being seriously questioned by the regulators of mainly United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) on the current Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP) being followed by these companies. In many instances their inspections are culminating into ‘Import Bans’ by the respective countries to ensure dug safety for the patients.

Are drugs for domestic consumption safe?

Despite intense local and global furore on this subject, Indian drug regulators at the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), very strangely, do not seem to be much concerned on this critical issue, at least, not just yet. Our drug regulators seem to act only when they are specifically directed by the Supreme Court of the country.

A recent major incident is yet another example to vindicate the point. In this case, according to media reports of November 2013, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has ordered the Indian pharma major Sun Pharmaceuticals to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, after discovering that the company does not have the requisite approval from the central government for operating the laboratory. The DCGI has decided not to accept future applications and will not process existing new drug filings that Sun Pharma has made from the Mumbai laboratory until the company gets an approval.

Considering the blatant violations of cGMP standards that are increasingly coming to the fore related to ‘export quality’ of drugs in India, after inspections by the foreign drug regulators, one perhaps would shudder to think, what could possibly be the level of conformance to cGMP for the drugs manufactured in India solely for the local patients.

This question comes up as the record of scrutiny on adherence to cGMP by the Indian drug regulators is rather lackadaisical. The fact that no such warnings, as are being issued by the foreign regulators, came from their local counterpart, reinforces this doubt.

USFDA ‘Import Bans’:

Be that as it may, in this article let me deliberate on this particular drug regulatory issue as is being raised by the USFDA and others.

It is important to note that in 2013 till date, USFDA issued ‘Import Alerts/Bans’ against 20 manufacturing facilities of the Indian pharmaceutical exporters, sowing seeds of serious doubts about the overall drug manufacturing standards in India.

The sequence of events post USFDA inspection:

Let us now very briefly deliberate on the different steps that are usually followed by the USFDA before the outcomes of the inspections culminate into ‘Import Alerts’ or bans.

After inspections, depending on the nature of findings, following steps are usually taken by the USFDA:

Issue of ‘Form 483’
The ‘Warning letter’
‘Import Alert’

Revisiting the steps:

Let me now quickly re-visit each of the above action steps of the USFDA.

‘Form 483’:

At the conclusion of any USFDA inspection, if the inspecting team observes any conditions that in their judgment may constitute violations of the Food, Drug and Cosmetic (FD&C) and other related Acts, a Form 483 is issued to the concerned company, notifying the firm management of objectionable conditions found during inspection.

Companies are encouraged to respond to the Form 483 in writing with their corrective action plan and then implement those corrective measures expeditiously. USFDA considers all these information appropriately and then determines what further action, if any, is appropriate to protect public health in their country.

The ‘Warning Letter’:

The ‘Warning Letter’ is a document usually originating from the Form 483 observations and results from multiple lacking responses to Form 483 requiring quick attention and action. It may be noted that higher-level USFDA agency officials and not the investigator issue the ‘Warning Letters’.

‘Import Alert/ Ban’:

‘Import Alerts’ are issued whenever USFDA determines that it already has sufficient evidence to conclude that concerned products appear to be adulterated, misbranded, or unapproved. As a result, USFDA automatically detains these products at the border, costing the related companies a lot of money. The concerned company’s manufacturing unit remains on the import alert till it complies with USFDA cGMP.

What happens normally?

Most of the USFDA plant inspections are restricted to issue of Form 483 observations and the concerned company’s taking appropriate measures accordingly. However, at times, ‘Warning Letters’ are issued, which are also mostly addressed by companies to the regulator’s satisfaction.

Import Bans are avoidable:

Considering the above steps, it is worth noting that there is a significant window of opportunity available to any manufacturing facility to conform to the USFDA requirements by taking appropriate steps, as necessary, unless otherwise the practices are basically fraudulent in nature.

The concern:

Currently, there is a great concern in the country due to increasing frequency of ‘Import Alerts’. As per USFDA data, in 2013 to date, about 20 drug manufacturing facilities across India attracted ‘Import Alerts’ as against seven from China, two each from Australian, Canadian and Japanese units and one each from South African and German facilities.

The matter assumes greater significance, as India is the second-largest supplier of pharmaceuticals to the United States. In 2012, pharmaceutical exports from India to the US reportedly rose 32 percent to US$ 4.2 billion. Today, India accounts for about 40 percent of generic and Over-The-Counter (OTC) drugs and 10 percent of finished dosages used in the US.

Ranbaxy cases: ‘Lying’ and ‘fraud’ allegations:

In September 2013, after the latest USFDA action on the Mohali manufacturing facility of Ranbaxy, all three plants in India of the company that are dedicated to the US market have been barred from shipping drugs to the United States. The magnitude of this import ban reportedly impacts more than 40 percent of the company’s sales. However, Ranbaxy has a total of eight production facilities across India.

This ‘Import Alert’ was prompted by the inspection findings of the USFDA that the Mohali factory of Ranbaxy had not met with the cGMP.

Other two plants of Ranbaxy’s located at Dewas and Paonta Sahib faced the same import alerts in 2008, and are still barred from making drug shipments to the US.

The import ban on he Mohali manufacturing facility of Ranbaxy comes after the company pleaded guilty in May 2013 to the felony (criminal) charges in the US related to drug safety and agreed to pay a record US$ 500 million in fines.

In addition, the company also faced federal criminal charges that it sold batches of drugs that were improperly manufactured, stored and tested. Ranbaxy also admitted to lying to the USFDA about how it tested drugs at the above two Indian manufacturing facilities.

Heavy consequential damages with delayed launch of generic Diovan:

The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has resulted in delayed introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent.

It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

Gain of Novartis:

This delay will help Novartis AG to generate an extra one-year’s sales for Diovan. This is expected to be around US$ 1 billion, only in the US. This development prompted Novartis in July this year to raise its profit and sales forecasts accordingly.

Wockhardt cases: Non-compliance of cGMP

Following Ranbaxy saga, USFDA inspection of Chikalthana plant of Wockhardt in Maharashtra detected major quality violations. Second time this year USFDA noted 16 violations of cGMP in the company’s facility. Earlier, in July 2013, the Agency issued a ‘Warning Letter’ and ‘Import Alert’ banning the products manufactured at the company’s Waluj pharmaceutical production facility.

Moreover, in September 2013, Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had pulled the GMP certificate of the company’s unit based in Nani Daman, after an inspection conducted by the UK regulator showed poor manufacturing standards.

Again, in October 2013, the MHRA withdrew its cGMP certificate for the Chikalthana plant of Wockhardt. This move would ban import of drugs into the UK, manufactured in this particular plant of the company.

However, MHRA has now decided to issue a restricted certificate, meaning Wockhardt will be able to supply only “critical” products from these facilities. This was reportedly done, as the UK health regulator wants to avert shortage of certain drugs essential for maintaining public health. The impact of the withdrawal of cGMP certificate on existing business of the company can only be ascertained once Wockhardt receives further communications from the MHRA.

Earlier in July 2013, MHRA had reportedly also imposed an import alert on the company’s plant at Waluj in Maharashtra and issued a precautionary recall for sixteen medicines made in this unit.

RPG Life Sciences cases: allegedly ‘Adulterated’ products:

In June 2013, USFDA reportedly issued a ‘Warning Letter’ to RPG Life Sciences for serious violation of cGMP in their manufacturing plants located at Ankleshwar and Navi Mumbai.

USFDA investigators had mentioned that “These violations cause your Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and drug products to be adulterated …the methods used in, or the facilities or controls used for, their manufacture, processing, packing, or holding do not conform to, or are not operated or administered in conformity with cGMP.”

Strides Arcolab case: Non Compliance of cGMP

In September 2013, Strides Arcolab announced that its sterile injectable drug unit – Agila Specialties (now with Mylan) had received a warning letter from the USFDA after its inspection by the regulator in June 2013. However, Strides Arcolab management said, “the company was committed to work collaboratively and expeditiously with the USFDA to resolve concerns cited in the warning letter in the shortest possible time.”

USV case: allegation of ‘data fudging’:

Recently, USFDA reportedly accused Mumbai-based drug major USV of fudging the data.

After an inspection of USV’s Mumbai laboratory in June 2013, the US drug regulator said the company’s “drug product test method validation data is falsified”. The USFDA has also reprimanded USV for not training its staff in cGMP.

Probable consequences:

USFDA import bans and a similar measure by the UKMHRA would lead to the following consequences:

Significant revenue losses by the companies involved, till the concerned regulators accept their remedial actions related to cGMP.
Increasing global apprehensions about the quality of Indian drugs.
Possibility of other foreign drug regulators tightening their belts to be absolutely sure about cGMP followed by the Indian drug manufacturers, making drug exports from India more difficult.
Huge opportunity cost for not being able to take advantage from ‘first to launch’ generic versions of off patent blockbuster drugs, such as from Diovan of Novartis AG.
Indian patients, including doctors and hospitals, may also become apprehensive about the general quality of drugs made by Indian Pharma Industry, as has already happened in a smaller dimension in the past.
Opposition groups of Indian Pharma may use this opportunity to further their vested interests and try to marginalize the Indian drug exporters.
MNCs operating in India could indirectly campaign on such drug quality issues to reap a rich harvest out of the prevailing situation.
Unfounded ‘foreign conspiracy theory’ may start gaining ground, prompting the Indian companies moaning much, rather than taking tangible remedial measures on the ground to effectively come out of this self created mess.

Conclusion:

Repeated cGMP violations made by the Indian drug exporters, as enunciated by the USFDA, have now become a malady, as it were. This can be corrected, only if the reality is accepted without attempting for justifications and then swallowing strong bitter pills, sooner.

Thereafter, the domestic pharma industry, which has globally demonstrated its proven capability of manufacturing quality medicines at affordable prices for a large number of patients around the world and for a long time, will require to tighten belts for strict conformance to cGMP norms, as prescribed by the regulators. This will require great tenacity and unrelenting mindset of the Indian Pharma to tide over the crisis.

Any attempt to trivialize the situation, as indicated above, could meet with grave consequences, jeopardizing the thriving pharma exports business of India.

That said, any fraud or negligence in the drug quality standards, for whatever reasons or wherever these may take place, should be considered as fraud on patients and the perpetrators must be brought to justice forthwith by the DCGI, with exemplary punitive measures.

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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