Emerging Role of Digital Pathology in Cancer

Posted on January 1, 2018 by Tapan Ray

Dear readers, an unlocked door awaiting all of us with tons of opportunities as we log out of 2017 and log in to 2018. Let’s grab those, bringing changes and smile in many lives. Happy New Year

Cancer is now a leading cause of death worldwide. Every year, across the world 8.2 million people die from cancer. As the World Health Organization (W.H.O) estimates, deaths from this deadly disease will continue to rise, reaching over 13.1 million in 2030.

W.H.O flags that two-thirds of these deaths occur in low and middle-income countries. More than 50 percent of cancer deaths could have been prevented through awareness campaigns, or could have been effectively addressed through expert screening, early diagnosis and affordable treatment.

From this perspective, ‘digital pathology’ offers an immense potential to make a significant difference in the lives of many, who are either high risk individuals, or actually suffering from life threatening ailments. In this article, I shall try to illustrate the above point, in simple language, citing the emerging role of ‘digital pathology’ in cancer, as an example.

Incidence of cancer in India:

W.H.O reports that presently in India, cancer is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. This is vindicated by the 2016 Press Release of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) stating that, the total number of new cancer cases was expected to be around 1.45 million in 2016, and the figure is likely to reach nearly 1.73 million new cases in 2020.

ICMR expected over 736,000 people to succumb to the disease in 2016 while the figure was estimated to shoot up to 880,000 by 2020. The data also revealed that only 12.5 percent of patients come for treatment in early stages of the disease. Another report estimated that around 2.5 million individuals in India are living with the cancer.

Launch of cancer screening program:

Realizing the increasing incidence of cancer, ‘the National Program for the Prevention and Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke (NPCDCS)’ was initiated in 100 districts in 2010, and expanded to about 468 districts in 2012, in tandem with other Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs).

After further review, the Government informed the Indian Parliament on April 01, 2017 about the launch of universal screening of diabetes, hypertension and cancer in 2100 districts, which would be extended across the country. Accordingly, ‘Operational Guidelines for Non-Communicable Diseases’ were worked out and made public.

A large number of cancer cases remain undetected:

It is worth noting, India is still among one those countries where a large number of cancer cases remain undetected or under-diagnosed. The country continues to grapple with a huge dearth of specialists in this area. These include not just cancer specialists, which reportedly is just 1 over 2000 cancer patients, but qualified pathologists, as well. This stark reality assumes greater importance, as early diagnosis with precision is the key to successful treatment of cancer.

It’s more in rural India:

Availability and access to affordable cancer diagnostic facilities, are indeed a major issue much more in rural areas – the home of over 70 percent of the Indian population. Consequently, its late detection, together with low awareness level for disease prevention, is considered to be the major factors attributing to relatively higher cancer mortality rate in the country.

The intensity of this problem increases manifold and gets more complex, due to various other geographic and logistical constraints. This situation makes high-technology based medical interventions a necessity to save many lives.

A unique public-private partnership initiative:

Interestingly, some developed countries are also trying to address the core issue of increasing access to affordable cancer diagnosis and treatment to all. An example of which can be drawn from the United Kingdom (UK), where one of finest Universal Health Care (UHC) system exists, for a long time.

On December 06, 2017, by a media release Roche Diagnostics announced a groundbreaking partnership discussions with the UK Government to transform cancer testing in patients.’ It said that the current shortage of pathologists and geographic constraints can make it difficult or longer for an expert to provide an opinion on a cancer patient case, where ‘digital pathology’ can play a crucial life-saving role.

Roche Diagnostics articulated that once important patient-cases are made available digitally, experts from any location can review them without delay. This would lead to availability of more equal access to experts to provide a timely and accurate diagnosis for cancer patients. It further said, making more information available electronically opens possibilities for the discovery of new treatments and the development of Artificial Intelligence algorithms in pathology diagnosis.

A Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) approach, such as the above can add greater efficiency, especially in tissue pathology services – including the expensive ones, to deliver faster and more accurate test results across the health care space, even in India. It goes without saying, such a PPP initiative has to be fleshed out with considerable details to unleash its true potential.

Thus, ‘digital pathology’, I reckon, has the potential to play a path-breaking role in providing access to affordable and early diagnosis of cancer to a large number patients, even in remote places, leading to better outcomes.

The scope of ‘digital pathology’:

It now brings us to the question of: what exactly is ‘digital pathology’? In simple term, ‘digital pathology’ involves remotely examining the whole slide digital imaging of original pathological slides of a patient, virtually in real time, from anywhere in the world to properly diagnose a disease. In case of cancer, these are digital image of original blood and tissue slides of patients, examined by experts with the application of special ‘digital pathology’ software and hardware, from a distant specialty hospital or laboratory.

According to the article titled ‘Artificial intelligence is aiding pathologists’, published on September 02, 2017 by the ‘Digital Journal’, AI or machine learning is being increasingly used in ‘digital pathology’ for precision diagnosis of a disease.

One such use of AI in ‘digital pathology’ for cancer, is to recognize broad or specific patterns in a whole slide image to interpret the features in the cancerous tissues for accurate diagnosis of metastasis and recurrence, besides the stage or grade of cancer.

Preparation of samples for ‘digital pathology’ is very important, and the requirements may vary with different cancer types. Nonetheless, prescribed procedures for each need to be adhered to, meticulously, even in those areas where there is no qualified pathologist, and paramedics do this job. Hence, those personnel should be thoroughly trained and periodically refreshed by well qualified specialist trainers.

Digital pathology in India:

The article titled, ‘Telepathology at the doorstep of a village’, published by the Department of Atomic Energy in India that was last updated on December 14, 2017, aptly captures the scope of ‘digital pathology’ or ‘Telepathology’ in the country.

The authors recognized in the article, despite the high quality of expertise being available within the country, even for the treatment of cancer, it is not available or accessible to a large section of the population, more in the rural areas. On the other hand, super specialty health care facilities like, Tata Memorial Hospital (TMH) or All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) cannot take the increasing patient load, beyond a point, due to various constraints.

Improving telecommunication infrastructure in the country, can be put to effective use for accurate diagnosis of cancer with ‘digital pathology’ or ‘tele-pathology’. Nevertheless, this application is currently operable mostly in those rural and semi urban areas, where a minimum standard of telecommunication infrastructure is available. However, the good news is, such areas are growing in India.

An interesting example is Barshi – a rural landscape in interior Maharashtra, located around 500 km away from Mumbai. Nargis Dutt Memorial Cancer Hospital (NDMCH) located in this hinterland, with Tata Memorial Hospital’s constant support and guidance, especially in ‘digital pathology’ has become an important cancer center. NDMCH now caters to a sizable population from a number of villages and towns surrounding it – in the districts of Solapur, Osmanabad and Latur.

A Government Press Release of October 19, 2016 states that AIIMS in Delhi has gone digital, becoming India’s first fully digital public e-hospital. More initiatives, such as these, in collaboration with rural health centers, and other related PPP initiatives, are expected to significantly improve access to ‘digital pathology’ to a large population, especially for early cancer detection in India.

More ‘Digital pathology’ initiatives are spreading roots in India, including the private business space. For example, according to a media report, Anand Diagnostic Laboratory in Bengaluru has become the first private diagnostic laboratory in the country to adopt the complete Roche Digital Pathology portfolio to provide better diagnostic insights for physicians and their patients.

“From simply remotely viewing patient slides, to consulting specialists real time within India or even through other parts of the world – the applications of digital pathology are endless” – commented the Managing Director, Roche Diagnostics India, while discussing the new technology at a meeting of pathologists in India.

Conclusion:

Against this backdrop, a wide-network of PPP initiatives of affordable ‘digital pathology’ would be a game changer, particularly for early detection of cancer. With the incidence of cancer rising fast in India, and its effective management getting increasingly more complex – requiring prompt specialists’ intervention right from early diagnosis, such initiatives call for high priority.

A few green-shoots are already visible in this area, but quite sporadic in nature, though. Hoping that its pace of progress will soon gain momentum, the emerging role of digital pathology in cancer brings a fresh hope for survival with dignity to a large population of patients – if and when cancer poses to strike its deadly blow.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Would Affordable ‘Modicare’ Remain Just A Pipe Dream In India?

Posted on April 6, 2015 by Tapan Ray

When ‘Universal Health Care/Coverage (UHC)’, considering a critical socio-economic national responsibility’, has been implemented by the Governments in a large number of countries across the world, why has it still not been effectively addressed by the successive Governments in India, garnering adequate resources, at least, for its phased roll-out in the country?

According to published reports, not just all the developed countries of the world, a good number of developing nations too, including some in Africa, have various kinds of UHC mechanism already in place.

Even within the BRIC countries, India is still a laggard in this area.

Health related major national initiatives of this kind and scale, not only effectively addresses the issue of access to affordable healthcare for all, ensuring high quality of public health environment for a healthy society, but also helps improving economic productivity maintaining a healthy work force.

It goes without saying, UHC helps reducing ‘out of pocket expenses’ towards health, significantly.

OECD Health Statistics 2014: How does India compare?

Total health spending of India with only around 4.0 percent of GDP in 2012 was less than half the OECD average of 9.3 percent.

Public health spending usually tends to rise with the economic growth of a nation. However, despite high GDP growth in the past two decades, India ranks well below the OECD average in terms of per capita health expenditure, with spending of only US$ 157 in 2012 (calculated based on purchasing power parity), compared with an OECD average of US$ 3484.

It is indeed an irony that with highest billionaire wealth concentration, India still tops malnutrition chart in South Asia. (I discussed this subject in my blog post of January 26, 2015.)

Public sector usually becomes the main source of health funding:

In nearly all OECD countries, the public sector is the main source of health funding. However, in India, only 33 percent of health spending was funded by public sources in 2012, a much lower share than the average of 72 percent in OECD countries.

In India, health accounted for only 4.8 percent of total government spending in 2012, significantly lower than the 14.4 percent across OECD countries. Out-of pocket costs accounted for 60 percent of health spending in India in 2012, higher than in any other OECD country.

This trend has not improved much even today.

UHC deserves public funding:

In almost all OECD countries, including many developing nations, as well, UHC remains a key area of public health funding.

Interestingly, very often UHC is projected as an idealistic social goal that is within reach of only the prosperous countries of the world. This is indeed a myth, as UHC is in place also in countries like, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and even Rwanda in Africa, besides South-East Asian countries, such as, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and China.

The strong relationship between health and economic performance of a country has now been well established globally.

Many case studies covering both the developed and developing nations, clearly point out that a country’s desirable focus on UHC does not just increase the life expectancy of its people, in general, but also facilitates economic growth in a sustainable way, which India is so keenly working towards.

Expectations for UHC received further boost from the new Government:

Just before the Union Budget Proposal 2015-16, in November 2014, national media reported: “ ‘Modicare’ to introduce free medicines, health insurance for citizens”.

It highlighted that in a major health sector reform, the new Government would ensure that every resident in India has access to affordable healthcare with provisions for free essential medicines while bringing over a dozen of diseases, including cancer and heart ailments, under the ambit of the proposed National Health Assurance Mission.

Another pre-budget media report on December 30, 2014, flashed: “The National Health Assurance Mission (NHAM) set to roll, once PM Modi gives go-ahead”.

It articulated, NHAM that has been in the works since 2011 when the erstwhile Planning Commission’s expert group submitted its report on UHC, is likely to take final shape in 2015. PM Narendra Modi is, however, still to see the presentation.

NHP 2015, bolstered hope for early adoption:

On December 31, 2014, when the present Government was in the midst of a series of major policy announcements for the country, The National Health Policy 2015 (Draft) was also released, further bolstering the hope for early adoption of UHC.

I discussed a related issue in my blog post of March 16, 2015 titled, “With Frugal Public Resource Allocation Quo Vadis Healthcare in India?”

Affordable ‘Modicare’ overshadows even ‘Obamacare’?

Universal Health Care (UHC), as narrated in the National Health Policy (NHP) 2015 (NHP 2015 Draft) of Narendra Modi Government, making health a ‘Fundamental Right’ for Indian Citizens, is indeed profound in its both content and intent.

In this article, I would term the new health policy as ‘Modicare’, just as many others did. If implemented in letter and in spirit, as it has been proposed, NHP 2015 has the potential to overshadow even ‘Obamacare’ of the United States…hands down.

A change in the fundamental narrative:

UHC, as detailed in NHP 2015, changes the fundamental narrative of the country’s approach to extend healthcare services to all Indians, irrespective of caste, creed, income level, age or any other pre-determined and conceivable parameters.

However, for this purpose, Modi Government would need to double the public healthcare expenditure from its current level of less than 1 percent to 2.5 of the GDP. It was also indicated that the required fund would be raised by levying healthcare tax to citizens, directly or indirectly.

Government to assume a key role in healthcare:

Currently, private players are playing dominating role with around 70-80 percent share (around US$ 40 Billion) of total healthcare services domain in the country. In other words, public healthcare services cater to no more than 20 percent of the total market, and mostly are of dubious quality standards.

It is interesting to note, NHP 2015 places the Government as the major provider of quality healthcare services for all. However, an individual would have the right to opt for private facilities, of course by paying significantly more.

The business scenario could change dramatically for private sector:

In NHP 2015, the Government becomes the major provider of UHC services. The private sector healthcare players would then probably require going back to the drawing boards to reorganize their business models.

They may well choose to embrace Public Private Partnership (PP) initiatives related to UHC or decide to turn into to niche players in the high-price private healthcare space or something else, as they would deem appropriate. But surely, they would have to take a step or two back from the current dominant role, where there is virtually no competition from the public sector, even in the mass healthcare market.

NHP 2015, underscores the need for affordable drug prices. Thus, the private players could also face tough pricing pressure, as well, while negotiating for large Government procurement.

Both the above issues, when put together and in perspective, would probably not make the private healthcare players terribly enthused or feel at ease. In that scenario, the Government has its task well cut out, mainly for navigating through tough resistance coming from both the national and international lobby groups, in the process of implementation of ‘Modicare’ in India, of course, if it fructifies any time soon or at all.

No control on quality even in private healthcare services:

In India, besides medicines, there is no quality control on any healthcare services, be it public or private.

As public healthcare services are hardly available to a vast majority of Indian population, common people remain virtually at the mercy of pricing diktats of the private healthcare providers, while availing the same. They usually do not have any inkling for high cost of such services, which generally follow the simple ‘demand and supply’ market economy model.

With the implementation of NHP 2015, the Government being the single largest buyer and provider of both healthcare products and services, would presumably negotiate hard both on quality and prices with the respective suppliers, benefitting the patients immensely.

Moreover, since Indian citizens would be paying for healthcare on an ongoing basis through direct and indirect taxes, NHP 2015 proposes free medicines and diagnostics facilities to all, as and when UHC would roll out.

Quietly comes the dampener:

When the Union Budget 2015-16 raised the national allocation for health only by 2 percent over the previous year, it literally extinguished the hope for healthcare reform in India, any time soon, even in a phased manner.

Central budgetary allocation for this initiative is very important, as UHC has been planned to be funded both by the Union and State Governments in 75:25 ratio.

In this intriguing phase, Reuters came out with the ‘Breaking News’.

On March 27, 2015, it reported, though the health ministry developed NHP 2015 on UHC in coordination with the prime minister’s office last year, along with an expert panel, including an expert from the World Bank, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked for a drastic cutback of the ambitious healthcare plan after cost estimates came in at US$18.5 billion over five years. Consequently, this would delay a promise on healthcare made in his well-publicized election manifesto, indefinitely.

Prime minister Modi’s manifesto, ahead of 2014 parliamentary election that brought him to power, accorded “high priority” to the health sector and promised a ‘Universal Health Assurance’ plan. The manifesto also said, previous public health schemes that have been mired in payment delays, had failed to meet the growing healthcare needs of the public, the above report highlighted.

Initially, the new Union Health Ministry reportedly proposed rolling out the system from April 2015, and in October 2014 projected its cost as US$25.5 billion over four years.

By the time the project was presented to Modi in January 2015, the costs were already brought down to US$18.5 billion over five years. Even that revised estimate was considered too much and the program was not approved by the Prime Minister, without assigning any timeframe even for a relook.

The delay in ‘Modicare’ is intriguing:

Inordinate delay in the commencement of implementation process of ‘Modicare’ or UHC in India is rather intriguing, primarily due to the following two basic reasons, besides some others:

- NHP 2015 proposes to fund the scheme through indirect and direct taxation on people, who would be covered by this new health policy.

- Experts, such as, Nobel Laureate Dr. Amartya Sen, in scholarly writings, have established with strong evidences, both from the developed and developing nations, that the national focus on UHC goes well beyond just increase in the life expectancy of the population. Besides many other tangible benefits, UHC helps facilitate sustainable economic growth of a nation significantly, which India is now so keenly working on.

Conclusion:

Over the past couple of decades, despite impressive GDP growth of the country, successive Governments in India have not shown desirable inclination to invest in a comprehensive public healthcare project, like UHC.

As a result, the nation still suffers from public health maladies, such as, grossly inadequate number of doctors, nurses, other paramedics, number of hospital beds and other related infrastructure to cater to even the basic healthcare needs of all Indians.

Ironically, at the same time, either the government fails to spend the paltry budgeted amount because of poor governance, or even that small amount faces a year end drastic budgetary cut from the Ministry of Finance to manage the fiscal deficit target of the year, as happened even in 2014-15.

Considering the series of events that followed the announcement of the draft NHP 2015, it appears, the prospects for affordable ‘Modicare’ in India is rather bleak, as it stands today.

There is also a possibility that in the implementation process of ‘Modicare’ the Government may encounter tough resistance from interested lobby groups, purely for business considerations, as deliberated above.

The real reason for delay of ‘Modicare’ has not come from the horse’s mouth, just yet. Nonetheless, it is certainly one of those much hyped and publicized public promises of the Government that remained unfulfilled, at least in the financial year of 2015-16.

Although one should not try to see ghosts where there isn’t any, the moot question that still keeps haunting today: ‘Would much publicized and well sought-after ‘Modicare’ continue to remain just a ‘Pipe Dream’ in India?’

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Is Drug Innovation As Critical As Access To Medicines For All? [Augmented By A Video]

Posted on May 12, 2014 by Tapan Ray

To make important medicines available to all in a sustainable way, the renowned philosopher Thomas Pogge in this very interesting video clipping titled “Medicines For The 99 Percent” suggested the following three simple, yet critical, steps to effectively run the healthcare system of any nation with a cost-effective and patient-centric approach:

Access to important medicines for all
A robust drug innovation model to meet the unmet needs of patients
Transparent and efficient systems to make medicines affordable to all, eliminating wastage of all kinds

To translate this process into reality Pogge proposed an out-of-box model, not just to incentivize companies for drug innovation, but also to produce those drugs in a cost-effective way . In his submission, Pogge recommended a US$ 6 billion ‘Health Impact Fund’ to revolutionize the way medicines are developed and sold. He strongly argued that the value of an innovative drug should always be ascertained by its differential “Health Impact” on patients over the equivalent available generics in the respective disease areas.

As you will see in the video, the model is interesting and deserves wholehearted support from all stakeholders, despite possible resistance from some powerful quarters prompted by vested interests.

Drug innovation and access to medicines:

As the good old saying goes, “Health is Wealth”. When a person falls sick, regaining health is all-important. Medicines play a very critical role there, for all. In the ongoing battle against various types of diseases, addressing unmet needs of the patients is also equally important. For this reason, drug innovation plays just as critical a role.

However, it is now a well-known fact that medicines, as such, are not very expensive to manufacture on a relative yardstick. Abundant availability of cheaper generic medicines, post-patent expiry, with as much as 90 percent price erosion over the concerned patented drug price, would vindicate this point.

Current R&D model:

Astronomical mark-ups on the cost of goods for the innovative-patented drugs coming out of the current R&D model, restrict access to these medicines mostly to rich people of both poor and rich countries of the world, depriving majority of the have-nots. Although in an ideal situation, all these medications should be accessible to those who need them the most.

Is the model sustainable?

Innovator companies attribute ‘astronomical’ high prices of patented drugs to hefty R&D expenditure, which probably includes high cost of failures too. Unfortunately, despite ongoing raging debates, R&D expense details are still held very close to the chest by the innovator companies, with almost total lack of transparency. Many experts, therefore, believe that this opaque, skewed and unsustainable drug R&D model of the global pharma majors needs a radical makeover now, as you would yourself see by clicking on the ‘video clipping’, as mentioned above

To ensure full access to important drugs for all, there are other R&D or innovation models too. Unfortunately, none of those appears to be financially as lucrative to the innovator companies as the one that they are currently following, thus creating a challenging logjam in the inclusive process of drug innovation.

Are Pharmaceutical R&D expenses overstated?

Some experts in this area argue that pharmaceutical R&D expenses are overstated, as the real costs are much less.

An article titled “Demythologizing the high costs of pharmaceutical research”, published by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2011 indicated that the total cost from the discovery and development stages of a new drug to its market launch was around US$ 802 million in the year 2000. This was worked out in 2003 by the ‘Tuft Center for the Study of Drug Development’ in Boston, USA.

However, in 2006 this figure increased by 64 per cent to US$ 1.32 billion, as reported by a large pharmaceutical industry association of the United States, though with dubious credibility as considered by many.

The authors of the above article had also mentioned that the following factors were not considered while working out the 2006 figure of US$ 1.32 billion:

▪ Tax exemptions that the companies avail for investing in R&D

▪ Tax write-offs that amount to taxpayers’ contributing almost 40 percent of the R&D cost

▪ Cost of basic research should not have been included as those are mostly undertaken by public funded universities or laboratories

The article observed that ‘half the R&D costs are inflated estimates of profits that companies could have made, if they had invested in the stock market instead of R&D and include exaggerated expenses on clinical trials’.

“High R&D costs have been the industry’s excuses for charging high prices”:

In line with this deliberation, in the same article the authors reinforce the above point, as follows:

“Pharmaceutical companies have a strong vested interest in maximizing figures for R&D as high research and development costs have been the industry’s excuse for charging high prices. It has also helped generating political capital worth billions in tax concessions and price protection in the form of increasing patent terms and extending data exclusivity.”

The study concludes by highlighting that “the real R&D cost for a drug borne by a pharmaceutical company is probably about US$ 60 million.”

Should Pharmaceutical R&D move away from the traditional model?

Echoing philosopher Thomas Pogge’s submission, another critical point to ponder today is:

Should the pharmaceutical R&D now move away from its traditional comfort zone of expensive one company initiative to a much less charted frontier of sharing drug discovery involving many players?

If this overall collaborative approach gains broad acceptance and then momentum sooner, with active participation of all concerned, it could lead to substantial increase in R&D productivity at a much lesser expenditure, eliminating wastage by reducing the cost of failures significantly, thus benefiting the patients community at large.

Choosing the right pathway in this direction is more important today than ever before, as the R&D productivity of the global pharmaceutical industry, in general, keeps going south and that too at a faster pace.

Making drug innovation sustainable:

Besides Thomas Pogge’s model with ‘Health Impact Fund’ as stated above, there are other interesting drug R&D models too. In this article, I shall focus on two examples:

Example I:

A July 2010 study of Frost & Sullivan reports: “Open source innovation increasingly being used to promote innovation in the drug discovery process and boost bottom-line”.

The concept underscores the urgent need for the global pharmaceutical companies to respond to the challenges of high cost and low productivity in their respective R&D initiatives, in general.

The ‘Open Innovation’ model assumes even greater importance today, as we have noted above, to avoid huge costs of R&D failures, which are eventually passed on to the patients again through the drug pricing mechanism.

‘Open Innovation’ model, as they proposed, will be most appropriate to even promote highly innovative approaches in the drug discovery process bringing many brilliant scientific minds together from across the world.

The key objective of ‘Open Innovation’ in pharmaceuticals is, therefore, to encourage drug discovery initiatives at a much lesser cost, especially for non-infectious chronic diseases or the dreaded ailments like Cancer, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer, Multiple Sclerosis, including many neglected diseases of the developing countries, making innovative drugs affordable even to the marginalized section of the society.

Android smart phones with huge commercial success are excellent examples of ‘Open Source Innovation’. So, why not replicate the same successful model of inclusive innovation in the pharmaceutical industry too?

Example II - “Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP)” initiative:

This laudable initiative has come to the fore recently in he arena of collaborative R&D, where 10 big global pharma majors reportedly decided in February 2014 to team up with the National Institutes of Health (NIH) of the United States in a ‘game changing’ initiative to identify disease-related molecules and biological processes that could lead to future medicines.

This Public Private Partnership (PPP) for a five-year period has been named as “Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP)”. According to the report, this US federal government-backed initiative would hasten the discovery of new drugs in cost effective manner focusing first on Alzheimer’s disease, Type 2 diabetes, and two autoimmune disorders: rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. The group considered these four disease areas among the largest public-health threats, although the span of the project would gradually expand to other diseases depending on the initial outcome of this project.

“A Social Brain Is a Smarter Brain”:

As if to reinforce the concept, a recent HBR Article titled “A Social Brain Is a Smarter Brain” also highlighted, “Open innovation projects (where organizations facing tricky problems invite outsiders to take a crack at solving them) always present cognitive challenges, of course. But they also force new, boundary-spanning human interactions and fresh perspective taking. They require people to reach out to other people, and thus foster social interaction.” This articulation further reinforces the relevance of a new, contemporary and inclusive drug innovation model for greater patient access.

Conclusion:

Taking these points into perspective, I reckon, there is a dire need to make the process of offering innovative drugs at affordable prices to all patients absolutely robust and sustainable as we move on.

Philosopher Thomas Pogge, in his above video clipping, has also enunciated very clearly that all concerned must ensure that medications get to those who need them the most. He has also shown a win-win pathway in form of creation of a “Health Impact Fund’ to effectively address this issue. There are other inclusive, sustainable and cost effective R&D models too, such as Open Innovation and Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP), to choose from.

That said, a paradigm shift in the drug innovation model can materialize only when there will be a desire to step into the uncharted frontier, coming out of the comfort zone of much familiar independent money spinning silos of drug innovation. Dove tailing business excellence with the health interest of all patients, dispassionately, would then be the name of the game.

Bringing this transformation sooner is extremely important, as drug innovation would continue to remain as critical as access to important medicines for all, in perpetuity.

However, to maintain proper checks and balances between drug innovation and access to medicines for all, the value of an innovative drug should always be ascertained by its differential ‘Health Impact’ on patients over equivalent available generics in that disease area and NOT by how much money, including the cost of R&D failures, goes behind bringing such drugs to the market, solely driven by commercial considerations.

By: Tapan J. Ray

For Affordable Healthcare: Synergize Resources Through PPP Models

Posted on February 24, 2014 by Tapan Ray

According to a 2012 study of IMS Consulting, the key factor of significantly high ‘Out of Pocket (OOP)’ expenditure on healthcare in India is that people are pushed into seeking costlier private care services due to imbalanced infrastructure of healthcare workers, medicines and facilities.

Currently, 74 percent of patients in ‘Out-Patient (OP)’ care and 65 percent in ‘in-Patient (IP)’ care seek healthcare in the private channels. In private inpatient care, the average cost of treatment exceeds the average monthly household income at 121 percent for the affording population and 217 percent for the poor population, forcing many families to borrow money or sell assets.

Thus, the affordability challenges for healthcare of the country, as manifested by high OOP spend, is mostly a consequence of a large patient population using the private healthcare channel due to still inadequate availability of public healthcare services.

The situation is looking up:

According to IMS study 2012, currently, on an average about 54 percent of the patients are receiving free medicines from the Government hospitals. In progressive states like, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka this number goes up to 85 percent. At the same time, in rural India, which constitutes around 70 percent of the total 1.2 billion populations of India, usage of Government facilities for OP care has increased from 22 percent in 2004 to 29 percent in 2012, mainly due to the impact of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM).

Consequently, this increase will also have significant impact in reducing OOP healthcare expenses of the rural poor.

Medicines constitute highest component of OOP:

Medicines still constitute the highest component of OOP expenses in OP care, though its percentage share has decreased from 71 percent in 2004 to 63 percent in 2012. Similarly for IP care, the share of medicines in total OOP has also decreased from 46 percent in 2004 to 43 percent in 2012.

However, still 46 percent of the patients seeking healthcare in public channels had to purchase medicines from private channels. Recently announced drug procurement system through Central Medical Services Society (CMSS) after hard price negotiation and distribution of those drugs free of cost from Government hospitals and health centers, could address this issue effectively.

Further scope to reduce OOP:

The study highlights that OOP spend could be lowered by 22 percent with:

Improved availability of healthcare facilities at public hospitals and health centers, which can be achieved through effective implementation of “National Health Mission” with higher budgetary allocation.

Improved availability of medicine at the public channels, which is feasible through effective implementation of already announced “Free Medicine” scheme of the Government across the country.

A total reduction of ~40% in overall OOP spend appears to be possible, the study reiterates, when more people would get confidence that public healthcare can meet all their needs.

The roadmap to achieve the goal:

Fundamentally there are five ways to deal with the affordability issue:

1. Reduction in demand: Creating a better health environment,

2. Reduction in costs: Through price control, increased competition, group purchasing power

3. Increase in financial support from government

4. Increased penetration of health insurance programs

5. Increase per-capita income of households

All these five areas, I reckon, would not be difficult to address through well-structured and strategic Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives.

It is increasingly recognized that there are many other healthcare challenges, which do not fall exclusively under either the public or the private sectors. These challenges need to be addressed with combined efforts… with well structured Public Private Partnership (PPP) models.

Private sector should play its role:

The private sector is already a major provider of health services in India. Hence, it has the wherewithal to support implementation of Government’s flagship healthcare programs, especially in the area of service delivery, to enhance their overall effectiveness.

As the Universal Health Care (UHC) proposal made by the High Level Experts Group (HLEG) to the Planning Commission of India highlighted, the government would provide the budget, while the private sector would take the responsibility for delivery of healthcare services.

Accountability for PPP should not fall through the systemic cracks:

The above study indicates, the private parties could include individual physicians, commercial contractors, large private and corporate super-specialty hospitals, not-for-profit agencies (NGOs), pharmaceuticals and device manufacturers. Expertise of all these stakeholders should be appropriately leveraged.

It is absolutely essential to make sure that the accountability of the PPP initiatives does not fall through the cracks now existing in the system.

To control costs and ensure required standards are met, all contractual agreements for PPPs, as recommended, must have adequate built-in monitoring and supervision mechanisms of the highest order, assigning clear roles and responsibilities for each party.

Similarly, NGOs need to be given a larger role of monitoring the activities or services rendered at such facilities to make sure the designated institutions are fulfilling their obligations to the public.

Conclusion:

To make healthcare affordable in India, well-strategized PPP initiatives would have critical roles to play.

Thus, instead of resorting to blame games with Government accusing the private sector to be exploitative and the private sector continuously moaning for ‘unfriendly’ business policies of the government, there is a fundamental need for both the constituents working closely together.

As a result, patients will have greater access to quality healthcare at an affordable price, the industry will grow faster in a sustainable way and the government will have its public healthcare obligations fulfilled to a reasonable extent.

Some of the major sectors in India where PPP has been quite successful are infrastructure, telecom, irrigation, power and airports. So, why should it not work for the healthcare sector of the country, as well?

By: Tapan J. Ray

A Potential Game Changer For Pharma R&D

Posted on February 10, 2014 by Tapan Ray

The ghost of ‘Patent Cliff’ has been haunting the ‘Big Pharma’ since quite some time. This situation has been further aggravated by cost containment pressures of various Governments both in the developed and the emerging markets together with contentious issues on Intellectual Property Rights (IPR).

The ‘dream run’ that the innovator companies enjoyed in launching patented products so frequently and making many those blockbuster drugs of billions of dollars, is no longer a reality.

According to the findings of ‘Pharmaceutical R&D returns performance’ by Deloitte and Thomson Reuters of December 2012, the R&D Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of leading pharmaceutical companies had fallen to 7.2 percent in 2012 from 7.7 percent in 2011.

Many would, therefore, tend to believe that the paradigm is changing significantly. The new paradigm in the brand new millennium throws some obnoxious challenges, including some related to IPR, triggering a process of churning in the global pharma industry. Some astute CEOs of ‘Big Pharma’, having a deep introspection, are bracing for restructuring, not just in the business processes, but also in the process of organizational behavior, mindset, ethics and values. Unfortunately, there are many who seem to believe that this giant wheel of change can be put on the reverse gear again with might.

A new PPP initiative in pharma research:

This trying situation calls for collaborative initiatives to achieve both knowledge and cost synergies for a quantum leap in harnessing R&D output.

One such big laudable initiative has come to the fore recently in this arena. Having experienced something like the ‘law of diminishing return’ in pursuit of high resource intensive R&D projects aimed at critical disease areas such as Alzheimer’s, 10 big global pharma majors reportedly decided in February 2014 to team up with the National Institutes of Health (NIH) of the United States in a ‘game changing’ initiative to identify disease-related molecules and biological processes that could lead to future medicines.

Not the first of its kind:

AMP is not the first PPP initiative of its kind. The Biomarkers Consortium was also another initiative, not quite the same though, of a major public-private biomedical research partnership managed by the Foundation for the NIH with broad participation from a variety of stakeholders, including government, industry, academia, patient advocacy groups and other not-for-profit private sector organizations.

Open innovation strategy of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to discover innovative drugs for malaria is yet another example, where GSK collaborated with the European Bioinformatics Institute and U.S. National Library of Medicine to make details of the molecule available to the researchers free of cost with an initial investment of US$ 8 million to set up the research facility in Spain, involving around 60 scientists from across the world to work in this facility.

Nearer home, ‘Open Source Drug Discovery (OSDD)’ project of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) is a now a global platform to address the neglected tropical diseases like, tuberculosis, malaria, leishmaniasis by the best research brains of the world working together for a common cause.

Challenges in going solo:

In this context, it is worth mentioning that the CEO of Sanofi, Chris Viehbacher reportedly said in an interview on April 15, 2013 that his company “Won’t push hard to find an Alzheimer’s treatment because the science isn’t advanced enough to justify the costs to develop a drug. Therefore, Sanofi definitely won’t commit major resources seeking to discover an Alzheimer’s therapy.” He further stated, “I think we have to do a lot more basic science work to understand what’s going on. We really, at best, partially understand the cause of the disease. It’s hard to come up with meaningful targets.”

The above report also mentioned that the first Alzheimer’s drugs, should they prove successful, would lead to a market worth US$ 20 billion as estimated in 2012.

Long desired OSDD model:

The new AMP R&D model in the United States seems to have derived its impetus from the “open-source” wave that has swept the software industry. Keeping that spirit unchanged, in this particular ‘open source’ model too, the participants would share all scientific findings with the public and anyone would be able to use these results freely for their own research initiatives.

The collaborators of this PPP project are expected to gain a better understanding of how each disease type works, and thereafter could make use of that collaborative knowledge to discover appropriate new molecules for the target disease areas.

AMP is also expected to arrive at methods to measure a disease progression and its response to treatment much more precisely. This will enable the pharma participants getting more targets right and early, thereby reducing the high cost of failures. Just to cite an example, there have been reportedly 101 failures since 1998 in late-stage clinical trials by Pfizer, J&J and Elan Corp.

Commendable initiative in the uncharted frontier:

The ‘open source’ AMP initiative of ‘Big Pharma’ in the uncharted frontier is indeed very unusual, as the innovative drug companies are believed to be not just quite secretive about the science that they are engaged in, but also near obsessive in pursuing and clinging-on to the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) through patents for each innovative steps related to potential new drugs.

It is worth noting that like any OSDD model, this PPP agreement also denies the participating players from using any discovery for their own drug research up until the project makes all data public on that discovery.

However, as soon as the project results will be made public, fierce competition is expected all around to develop money-spinning winning drugs.

Participating companies:

Ten pharma companies participating in AMP are reportedly, AbbVie, Biogen Idec, Bristol-Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, Merck & Co., Pfizer, Sanofi and Takeda. It is good to find within the participants some staunch business rivals. According to a report, a number of foundations, including the American Diabetes Association and the Alzheimer’s Association have also agreed to get involved in the project.

Some key non-participants:

For various different reasons some key pharma majors, such as, Amgen, Roche and AstraZeneca have decided not to participate in AMP.

AMP project and cost:

AMP reportedly has reportedly articulated its intent to: “Map molecular paths that each disease follows and to identify key points that could be targets for treatment. In Type 2 diabetes, for instance, researchers hope to catalog the genetic changes that raise or lower a person’s risk for developing the disease. It also will seek novel methods to measure each disease’s course while assessing if a potential drug is working. Being able to measure a disease’s progress in that way, could speed drug development by raising a company’s confidence that an experimental drug is working, or let it more quickly end a project if a drug isn’t working.”

The participating companies and the NIH have jointly agreed that the AMP would put together a research system on cost sharing basis by pooling the brightest minds who are experts on each disease, along with the best drug discovery laboratories, relevant data and samples from clinical trials to decipher the diseases in ways, which none of these pharma players has been able to achieve just yet on its own.

To achieve all these, the total cost has been estimated at roughly just US$ 230 million, as compared to US$135 billion that the global drug industry claims to spend in a year on R&D.

This should also be seen in context of a study of December 2012 carried out by the Office of Health Economics (OHE), UK with a grant from AstraZeneca, which estimated that the cost of developing new medicine has risen by ten times from US$100 million in the 1970s to as high as US$ 1.9 billion in 2011.

As a head honcho of a global pharma biggie had put it earlier, a large part of these R&D expenses are the costs of failure, as stated above.

Criticism:

As usual, criticism followed even for this path-breaking project. Critics have already started questioning the rationale of the choice of the above four disease areas, with an exception perhaps for Alzheimer’s and wondered whether the participating players are making use of the federal fund to push hard the envelope of their respective commercial intents.

Another new collaborative approach:

In another recently announced collaborative initiative, though not of the same kind, where Merck & Co has reportedly entered three separate collaboration agreements to evaluate an immunotherapy cancer treatment that is part of a promising new class of experimental drugs that unleash the body’s immune system to target cancer cells.

Conclusion:

There could still be some hiccups in the process of effective implementation of the AMP project. Hope, all these, if any, will be amicably sorted out by the participants of stature for the benefits of all.

Be that as it may, ‘open source’ model of drug discovery, as believed by many, would be most appropriate in the current scenario to improve not only profit, but also to promote more innovative approaches in the drug discovery process.

On May 12, 2011, in an International Seminar held in New Delhi, the former President of India Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam highlighted the need for the scientists, researchers and academics to get effectively engaged in ‘open source’ philosophy by pooling talent, patents, knowledge and resources for specific R&D initiatives from across the world for newer and innovative drugs.

According to available reports, one of the key advantages of the ‘open source’ model would be substantial reduction in the high cost of failures of R&D projects, which coupled with significant saving in time would immensely reduce ‘mind-to-market’ span of innovative drugs in various disease areas, making these medicines affordable to many more patients.

Thus, PPP initiatives in pharmaceutical R&D, such as AMP, are expected to have immense potential to create a win-win situation for all stakeholders, harvesting substantial benefits both for the pharmaceutical innovators and the patients, across the world.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Sets 2013, Dawns 2014: Top 7 Pharma Developments

Posted on December 31, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Wish You Good Health, Happiness, Success and Prosperity in 2014

In this article I shall focus on ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’, both while ‘Looking Back to 2013′ and also during my ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′.

Looking Back to 2013:

While looking back, the ‘Top 7 Pharma Developments’ unfolded in India during 2013, in my opinion, are as follows:

1. Supreme Court judgment on Glivec:

The landmark Supreme Court judgment on the Glivec case has vindicated, though much to the dismay of pharma MNCs, the need to strike a right balance between encouraging and protecting innovation, including incremental ones, and the public health interest of India.

2. DPCO 2013:

Following the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy (NPPP) of December 2012, the new Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO 2013) signaled a significant departure from the decades old systems of arriving at both the ‘span’ and also the ‘methodology’ of drug price control in India. However, its implementation has been rather tardy as on today.

As a result, at the very beginning of the process of its effective roll-out, the new DPCO faltered badly. It created unprecedented complications and dead-locks not just for the pharmaceutical companies and the trade, but for the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), as well, which has not been able to announce the new ceiling prices for at least 100 essential drugs, even 8 months after notification of this order.

The pharma companies and the NGOs have already taken this policy to the court, though for different reasons. The rationale for the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) 2011 has also been questioned by many along with a strong demand for its immediate review.

Thus much awaited DPCO 2013 is still charting on a slippery ground.

3. India, China revoked 4 pharma patents:

In the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) arena many National Governments have now started asserting themselves against the prolonged hegemony of the Western World pressing for most stringent patent regime across the globe, at times even surreptitiously. Such assertions of these countries signal a clear tilt in the balance, favoring patients’ health interest rather than hefty gains in business profits, much to the delight of majority of world population.

Revocation of four drug patents by India and China within a fortnight during July-August 2013 period has thus raised many eyebrows, especially within the pharma Multinational Corporations (MNCs). In this short period, India has revoked three patents and China one.

While these unexpected and rather quick developments are probably double whammy for the pharma MNCs operating in India and China, a future trend would possibly emerge as soon as one is able to connect the evolving dots.

4. Supreme Court intervened in Clinical trials (CT):

With a damning stricture to the Indian Drug Regulator, the Supreme Court, in response to a PIL filed by the NGO Swasthya Adhikar Manch, came out heavily on the way Clinical Trials (CTs) are approved and conducted in the country.

Breaking the nexus decisively between a section of the powerful pharma lobby groups and the drug regulator, as highlighted even in the Parliamentary Committee report, the Ministry of Health, as reported to the Supreme Court, is now in the process of quickly putting in place a robust and transparent CT mechanism in India.

This well thought-out new system, besides ensuring patients’ safety and fair play for all, is expected to have the potential to help reaping a rich economic harvest through creation of a meaningful and vibrant CT industry in India, simultaneously benefitting millions of patients, in the years ahead.

5. US-FDA/UK-MHRA drug import bans:

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data, by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have culminated into several import bans of drugs manufactured in those units. All these incidents have just not invited disgrace to the country in this area, but also prompted other national regulators to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

This despicable mindset of the concerned key players, if remains unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming bright opportunities.

The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies.

6. Pharma FDI revisited in India:

After a series of inter-ministerial consultations, the Government of India has maintained 100 percent FDI in pharma brownfield projects through FIPB route. However, removal of the ‘non-compete’ clause in such agreements has made a significant difference in the pharma M&A landscape.

7. ‘No payment for prescriptions’:

Unprecedented acknowledgement and the decision of GSK’s global CEO for not making payments to any doctor, either for participating or speaking in seminars/conferences to influence prescription decision in favor of its brands, would indeed be considered as bold and laudable. This enunciation, if implemented in letter and spirit by all other players of the industry, could trigger a paradigm shift in the prescription demand generation process for pharmaceuticals brands.

Crystal Gazing 2014:

While ‘Crystal Gazing 2014′, once again, the following ‘Top 7 (most likely) Pharma Developments’, besides many brighter growth opportunities, come to the fore:

1. Public Interest Litigation (PIL) now pending before the Supreme Court challenging DPCO 2013 may put the ‘market based pricing’ concept in jeopardy, placing the pharma price control system back to square one.

2. The possibility of revision of NLEM 2011, as many essential drugs and combinations have still remained outside its purview, appears to be imminent. This decision, if taken, would bring other important drugs also under price control.

3. Universal Health Care (UHC) related pilot projects are likely to be implemented pan-India along with ‘free distribution of medicines’ from Government hospitals and health centers in 2014. Along side, more Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives may come up in the healthcare space improving access to quality healthcare to more number of patients.

4. With the Supreme Court interventions in response to the pending PILs, more stringent regulatory requirements for CT, Product Marketing approvals, Pricing of Patented Medicines and Ethical Marketing practices may come into force.

5. Possibilities of more number of patent challenges with consequent revocations and grant of several Compulsory Licenses (CL) for exorbitantly priced drugs in life-threatening disease areas like, cancer, loom large. At the same time, between 2013 and 2018, US$ 230 billion of sales would be at risk from patent expirations, offering a great opportunity to the Indian generic players to boost their exports in the developed markets of the world.

6. More consolidation within the pharmaceutical industry may take place with valuation still remaining high.

7. Overall pharma IPR scenario in India is expected to remain as robust and patient friendly as it is today, adding much to the worry of the MNCs and relief to the patients, in addition to the generic industry. More number of countries are expected to align with India in this important area.

Conclusion:

The year 2013, especially for the pharmaceutical industry in India, was indeed eventful. The ‘Top Seven’ that I have picked-up, out of various interesting developments during the year, could in many ways throw-open greater challenges for 2014.

My ‘Crystal Gazing 2014’, would challenge the pharma players to jettison their old and traditional business mindsets, carving out new, time-specific, robust and market savvy strategic models to effectively harvest newer opportunities for growth.

That said, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to thrive in India with gusto, including the MNCs, mainly because of immense potential that the domestic market offers in its every conceivable business verticals, propelled by continuous high growth trend in the domestic consumption of medicines, excepting some minor aberrations.

The New Year 2014, I reckon, would herald yet another interesting paradigm for the pharma industry. A paradigm that would throw open many lucrative opportunities for growth, both global and local, and at the same time keep churning out different sets of rapidly evolving issues, requiring more innovative honed corporate skill-sets for their speedy redressal, as the time keeps ticking.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Takes ‘Two to Tango’: Encashing Opportunities with Biologic drugs in India

Posted on February 11, 2013 by Tapan Ray

Despite current ‘Patent Cliff’ ongoing research on biologics is now at the forefront of the Global Pharmaceutical Industry. The bottom-line impact of a successful new biologic molecule to treat intractable ailments like, cancer, blood disorders, Parkinson’s, Myasthenia Gravis, Multiple Sclerosis, Alzheimer’s diseases, will be huge.

Currently, faster growth of this segment as compared to conventional small molecules is primarily driven by novel technologies and highly targeted approaches, the final outcome of which is being more widely accepted by both physicians and patients.

Lesser generic competition makes it more attractive:

After patent expiry, innovators’ small molecule brands become extremely vulnerable to cut throat generic competition with as much as 90% price erosion.This is mainly because these small molecules are relatively easy to replicate by many generic manufacturers and the process of getting their regulatory approval is also not as stringent as biosimilar drugs in most of the markets of the world.

On the other hand biologic drugs involve difficult, complex and expensive processes for development. Such resource intensive scientific expertise together with stringent regulatory requirements for obtaining marketing approval, especially in the developed markets of the world like, EU and USA, help creating a significant market entry barrier for many players. That is why even after patent expiry, biologics enjoy significant brand protection from generic competition for quite some time, in many cases.

It is for this reason brands like the following ones are expected to go relatively strong even for some more time, without any significant competition from biosimilar drugs in many of the major markets of the world:

Brand	Company	Launch date
Rituxan	Roche/Biogen idec	1997
Herceptin	Roche	1998
Remicade	Centocor/J&J	1998
Enbrel	Amgen/Pfizer	1998

Global Market:

In 2011 the turnover of Biologic drugs increased to over US$ 175 billion in the total market of US$ 847 billion. The sale of Biosimilar drugs outside USA exceeded US$ 1 billion.

Six biologic drugs featured in the top 10 best selling global brands in 2012 with Humira of AbbVie emerging as the highest-selling biologics during the year. Roche remained the top company by sales for biologics with anticancer and monoclonal antibodies.

According to IMS Health, by 2015, sales of biosimilars are expected to reach between US$ 1.9 – 2.6 billion, an increase from US$ 378 million for the year to the first half of 2011.

Attractiveness:

The answer to the key question of why do so many companies want to enter into the biotech space of the business, in summary, could lie in the following:

Truly innovative small molecule discovery is becoming more and more challenging and expensive with the low hanging fruits already being plucked.
More predictable therapeutic activity of biologics with better safety profile.
Higher percentage of biologics have turned into blockbuster drugs in the recent past.
Market entry barrier for biosimilar drugs, after patent expiry of the original molecule, is much tougher than small molecule generics.
A diverse portfolio of both small and large molecules will reduce future business risks.

A 2012 report by PwC titled ‘From Vision to Decision: Pharma 2020’ states that “the next few years may look bleak for pharma, but we’re convinced that the following decade will bring a golden era of renewed productivity and prosperity.”

The document also points out that the global pharmaceutical industry is now focusing its R&D initiatives on biologics for the treatment of cancer and rare diseases. Nearly 30 percent of the 7,891 molecules currently in clinical testing cover cancer and autoimmune conditions.

Another emerging opportunity:

As stated above, unlike commonly used ‘small molecule’ drugs, ‘large molecule’ biologics are developed from living cells using very complex processes.

It is virtually impossible to replicate these protein substances, unlike the ‘small molecule’ drugs. One can at best develop a biologically similar molecule with the application of high degree of biotechnological expertise. These drugs are known as ‘Biosimilar Drugs’ and usually cost much less than the original ones.

Biosimilar drugs market is currently fast evolving across the world with varying degree of pace and stages of developments. The U.S currently holds the leadership status in the production of biologics, with around 45 percent of the total share. India’s share, now being at 7 percent is continuously increasing.

Biosimilar Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs) in the Pipeline:

Company	Location	Biosimilar mAbs	Development Status
BioXpress	Switzerland	16	Preclinical
Gene Techno Science	Japan	6	Preclinical
Zydus Cadilla	India	5	Preclinical
PlantForm	Canada	3	Preclinical
BioCad	Russia	3	Preclinical
Celltrion	South Korea	2	Phase 3
LG Life Sciences	South Korea	2	Preclinical
Gedeon Richter	Hungary	2	Preclinical
Cerbios-Pharma	Switzerland	1	Preclinical
Hanwha Chemical	South Korea	1	Preclinical
PharmaPraxis	Brazil	1	Preclinical
Probiomed	Mexico	1	Phase 3
Samsung BioLogics	South Korea	1	Preclinical
Novartis	Switzerland	1	Phase 2
Teva	Israel	1	Phase 2
Zenotech	India	1	Phase 3
Spectrum	US	1	Preclinical
Biocon/Mylan	India/US	1	Preclinical

(Source: PharmaShare; as of September 10, 2011 from Citeline’s Pipeline database)

Future business potential with cost arbitrage of India:

In 2013, products like, Avonex of Biogen Idec, Humalog of Eli Lilly, Rebif of Merck KgaA, Nupugen of Amgen will go off-patent, paving the way of entry for lower priced biosimilar drugs. The sum total of revenue from all such drugs comes to over U.S$ 15 billion.

The report from the ‘Business Wire’ highlights that, ‘the manufacture and development of a biosimilar molecule requires an investment of about US$ 10 to 20 million in India, as compared to US$ 50 to 100 million in developed countries’, vindicates the emergence of another lucrative business opportunity for India for such drugs with significant cost arbitrage.

Government support in India:

In India, the government seems to have recognized that research on biotechnology has a vast commercial potential for products in human health, including biosimilars, diagnostics and immunobiologicals, among many others.

To give a fillip to the Biotech Industry in India the National Biotechnology Board was set up by the Government under the Ministry of Science and Technology way back in 1982. The Department of Biotechnology (DBT) came into existence in 1986. The DBT currently spends around US$ 300 million annually to develop biotech resources in the country and has been reportedly making reasonably good progress.

The DBT together with the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has now prepared ‘Regulatory Guidelines for Biosimilar Drugs’ in conformance to international quality and patient safety standards.

Currently, a number of both financial and non-financial incentives have been announced by the Central and the State Governments to encourage growth of the biotech industry in India, which include tax incentives, exemption from VAT and other fees, grants for biotech start-ups, financial assistance with patents, subsidies on investment from land to utilities and infrastructural support with the development of ten biotech parks through ‘Biotechnology Parks Society of India’.

A commendable DBT initiative:

Towards this direction, the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) of the Government of India has taken a commendable step to encourage the small and medium scale business outfits by setting-up ‘The Small Business Innovation Research Initiative (SBIRI)’. This scheme has been launched to boost ‘Public-Private-Partnership (PPP)’ projects in the country.

SBIRI supports ‘the high-risk pre-proof-of-concept research’ and ‘late stage development’ in small and medium size companies to get them involved in the development of biologics.

Some examples:

Examples of some among many of the PPP initiatives in the healthcare space under SBIRI are as follows:

No.	Company Name with Collaborator	Title of the Project Supported
1.	IcubedG Ideas Private Limited, New Delhi	Risk based Process Design for large scale Manufacturing of male injectable contraceptive (Phase I)
2.	Incozen Therapeutics Pvt. Ltd., Hyderabad	Discovery and Development of Novel, Selective and Potent Dihydroorotate Dehydrogenase Inhibitors in Inflammatory Bowel diseases. (Phase I)
3.	Mediclone Biotech Private Limited, Chennai	Commercial Production of Monoclonal Antibodies as an import substitute with special reference to Red Blood Cell Phenotyping (Phase II)
4.	Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Chennai in collaboration with AU-KBC Research Center, Chennai	Development and validation of a cell-tissue co-culture model for aiding liver specific studies and drug discovery applications. (Phase I)
5.	Reliance Life Sciences Pvt. Ltd., Navi Mumbai	An open label, multicenter, prospective clinical study to evaluate the safety and efficacy of tissue engineered R-STE-001 in patients with symptomatic cartilage defect of femoral condyle (Phase II)
6.	USV Limited, Mumbai	Development of a Vaccine capable for eliciting immunological memory for the prevention of Typhoid (Phase II)
7.	Virchow Biotech Private Limited, Hyderabad	Development of commercialization of a recombinant uricase for the prevention and treatment of tumor lysis syndrome associated with leukemia, lymphoma & solid tumor malignancies (Phase II)
8.	Virchow Biotech Private Limited, Hyderabad	Indigenous development of a recombinant Fuzeon for the treatment of AIDS (Phase II)
9.	Zenotech Laboratories Limited., Hyderabad	Development of humanized monoclonal antibodies against human epidermal growth factor receptor (Phase I)


10.	Advanced Neuro-Science Allies Pvt. Ltd, Bangalore in collaboration with Vittal Mallya Scientific Research Foundation, Bangalore	Pre-clinical studies of Human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) isolated and characterized from different sources in autoimmune disease, namely rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and type 1 diabetes (TIDM)(Phase I)
11.	Avesthagen Ltd., Bangalore	Hepatocyte-like cells generated from human embryonic stem cells (hESC) for hepatotoxicity screening of xenobiotics in the drug discovery process(Phase I)
12.	Avesthagen Limited, Bangalore	Scale-up and evaluation of high-value biosimilar product (Etanercept) aimed at providing cost-effective healthcare solutions to the emerging markets(Phase II)
13.	Bharat Serum and Vaccines Limited, Mumbai	Expression of recombinant proteins for development of synthetic pulmonary surfactant for Respiratory Distress Syndrome(Phase I)
14.	Cadila Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Ahmedabad	Development of Mycobacterium was an adjuvant for anti – rabies vaccine(Phase I)

Besides, Indian pharmaceutical majors like Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Reliance Life Science, Shantha Biotech, Ranbaxy, Biocon, Wockhardt and Glenmark have made good investments in biotech drugs manufacturing facilities keeping an eye on the emerging opportunities with Biosimilar drugs in the developed markets of the world.

Funding remains a critical issue:

That said, many industry experts do feel that R&D funding for the Biotech sector in the country is grossly inadequate. Currently, there are not many ‘Venture Capital’ funds for this sector and ‘Angel Investments’ almost being non-existent, Indian biotech companies are, by and large, dependent on Government funding.

Making India a global hub for biosimilar manufacturing:

However, with around 40 percent cost arbitrage, adequate government support and without compromising on the required stringent international regulatory standards, the domestic ‘biologic’ players should be able to establish India as one of the most preferred manufacturing destinations to meet the global requirements for particularly ‘biosimilar drugs’.

Experience in conforming to stringent US FDA manufacturing standards, having largest number of US FDA approved plants outside USA, India has already acquired a clear advantage in manufacturing high technology chemical based pharmaceutical products in India. Significant improvement in conformance to Good Clinical Practices (GCP) standards will offer additional advantages.

Conclusion:

With increasing support from the government and fueled by creative, scientific and technological inputs from various experts and entrepreneurs in the country, India has the potential to emerge as one of Asia’s best powerhouses in the field of biosimilars drugs by the end of this decade. It will take ‘two to tango’.

By: Tapan J. Ray

An El Dorado…But Not Without Responsible Pricing:The Cancer Segment in India

Posted on February 4, 2013 by Tapan Ray

The affordability issue for cancer treatment has been the subject of a raging debate since quite some time, as the incidence of cancer is fast increasing across the world. Just for example a very recent report highlighted that cancer has now become the greatest health risk in the UK, with an average British boy born in 2010 running a 44 percent chance of being diagnosed with any form of cancer during his lifetime. The risk for a baby girl is slightly lower at 40 percent.

In India too, the problem of affordable cancer treatment has now become the center piece of a fiercer public opinion in the healthcare space, more than even HIV, prompting the Government to intervene in this dreadful disease area and address the problem in a holistic way both in the short and also on a longer term basis. This demand is supported by rapidly growing number of cancer patients in the country.

Out of the total number of new cancer patients globally, India now reportedly ranks third as follows:

Rank	Country	% Of total
1.	China	22
2.	USA	11
3.	India	7.5

As a consequence, cancer now reportedly accounts for one of the main causes of deaths in India, which is nearly 19 percent higher than deaths caused by heart diseases.

Number of new cancer patients staggering in India:

Over 60,000 new cases are reportedly diagnosed every year in India and 80 percent of them are at an advanced stage, which involve mostly the middle-aged and elderly population of the country, where affordability is even a greater issue.

Cervical and breast cancers are reportedly the most common, contributing over 26 per cent to the total cancer cases in India, followed by lung, mouth, pharynx, ovarian, pancreatic and esophagus cancers.

Whereas cervical cancer is reportedly most common in females with a mortality rate of nearly 15 per 10,000 females, lung cancer has the highest mortality rate of 28 per 10,000 males.

Incidentally, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer even globally. Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) accounts for approximately 90% of all lung cancers. The primary cause of lung cancer in up to 90% of patients is tobacco and represents one-fifth of all cancer-related deaths in India.

However, to address the havoc caused by this dreaded disease effectively, India will also need to bridge the huge gap of shortfall in disease diagnostic infrastructure in the country.

The humongous access gap for cancer patients needs to be effectively addressed by the Government sooner with Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) for diagnosis and treatment, in tandem with other proactive initiatives like, disease awareness campaigns targeted to ensure greater screening and disease prevention, wherever possible.

‘The Lancet’ finding:

Following are some of the important findings on cancer disease profile in India, as reported in May 12, 2012, edition of ‘The Lancet’:

- 6 percent of the study deaths were due to cancer

- 71 percent cancer deaths occurred in people aged 30—69 years

- Age-standardized cancer mortality rates per 100,000 were similar in rural and urban areas but varied greatly between the states, and were two times higher in the least educated than in the most educated adults.

This report further calls for immediate Government intervention in this area.

Growing patients number making ‘Oncology Market’ increasingly attractive:

As stated above, incidence of various types of cancer is rapidly increasing across the world, making oncology segment an ‘El Dorado’ for many pharmaceutical players prompting commensurate investments for product development in this area, be these are new molecules or biosimilars.

Thus, the global turnover of anti-cancer drugs, which was around US$ 50 billion in 2009, is expected to grow to US$ 75 billion in 2013 registering a jaw dropping growth rate in today’s turbulent global pharmaceutical market environment.

World Health Organization (WHO) has predicted over 20 million new cases of cancer in 2025 against 12 million in 2008.

Globally, the segment growth will mainly be driven by early detection, longer duration of treatment and the global ascending trend in the incidence and prevalence of cancer propelled by new treatments and improved access to cancer therapies in many countries.

Indian business landscape:

Oncology segment has now emerged as a leading therapeutic area in the Indian pharmaceuticals market too, being fourth largest in volume and tenth largest in value term, mainly driven by lower priced generic equivalents in volume term.

Despite only a smaller number of patients can afford any comprehensive cancer treatment protocol in India, the demand for cancer drugs in the country, where many drug companies follow various types of unconventional logistics systems to reach these drugs to patients, is increasing at a rapid pace.

Global players namely, Roche, BMS, Pfizer, Sanofi, GSK and Merck reportedly dominate the market with innovative drugs. Whereas, domestic companies like, Natco Pharma, Cipla, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Lab (DRL), Biocon and others are now coming up with low price generic equivalents of many cancer drugs.

The fact that currently over 30 pharmaceutical companies market cancer drug in the country, demonstrates growing attractiveness of the Oncology segment in India.

Access to newer cancer drugs:

It has been widely reported that newer cancer therapies have significant advantages over available generic cancer drugs both in terms of survival rate and toxicity.

Unfortunately such types of drugs cost very high, severely limiting access to their therapeutic benefits for majority of patients. For a month’s treatment such drugs reportedly cost on an average US$ 3,000 – 4,500 or Rs 1.64 – 2.45 lakh to each patient in India.

More R&D investments in Oncology segment:

Another study recently published by ‘Citeline’ in its ‘Pharma R&D Annual Review 2012’ points out, more than half of the top 25 disease areas targeted for R&D falls under cancer therapy. Breast cancer comes out as the single most targeted disease followed by Type 2 diabetes.

This will ensure steady growth of the Oncology segment over a long period of time and simultaneously the issue of access to these medicines to a large number of patients, if the product pricing does not fall in line with socioeconomic considerations of India.

Cancer drug sales dominated in 2012:

It is interesting to note that around one-third of the ‘Top 10 Brands in 2012′ were for the treatment of cancer as follows:

Top 10 global brands in 2012

Rank	Brand	Therapy Area	Company	Sales: (US$ bn)
1.	Humira	Rheumatoid Arthritis and others	Abbott /Eisai (now AbbVie/Eisai)	9.48
2.	Enbrel	Anti-inflammatory	Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda	8.37
3.	Advair/Seretide	Asthma, COPD	GlaxoSmithKline	8.0
4.	Remicade	Auto-immune	Johnson & Johnson/Merck/ Mitsubishi Tanabe	7.67
5.	Rituxan	Anti-cancer	Roche	6.94
6.	Crestor	Anti-lipid	AstraZeneca/ Shionogi	6.65
7.	Lantus	Anti-diabetic	Sanofi	6.12
8.	Herceptin	Anti-cancer	Roche	6.08
9.	Avastin	Anti-cancer	Roche	5.98
10.	Lipitor	Anti-lipid	Pfizer/Astellas Pharma/Jeil Pharmaceutical	5.55

(Source: Fierce Pharma)

Responsible Pricing a key issue with cancer drugs:

In the battle against the much dreaded disease cancer, the newer innovative drugs being quite expensive, even in the developed markets the healthcare providers are feeling the heat of cost pressure of such medications, which in turn could adversely impact the treatment decisions for the patients.

Thus, to help the oncologists to appropriately discuss the treatment cost of anti-cancer drugs with the patients, the ‘American Society of Clinical Oncology’ recently has formed a task force who will also try to resolve this critical issue.

In many other developed markets of the world, for expensive cancer medications, the patients are required to bear the high cost of co-payment. This may run equivalent to thousands of U.S dollars, which many patients reportedly find difficult to arrange.

It has been reported that even the ‘National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), UK’ considers some anti-cancer drugs not cost-effective enough for inclusion in the NHS formulary, sparking another set of raging debate.

‘The New England Journal of Medicine’ in one of its recent articles with detail analysis, also expressed its concern over sharp increase in the price of anti-cancer medications, specifically.

An interesting approach:

Experts are now deliberating upon the possibility of creating a ‘comparative effectiveness center’ for anti-cancer drugs. This center will be entrusted with the responsibility to find out the most cost effective and best suited anti-cancer drugs that will be suitable for a particular patient, eliminating possibility of any wasteful expenses with the new drugs just for newness and some additional features. If several drugs are found to be working equally well on the same patient, most cost effective medication will be recommended to the particular individual.

India should also explore this possibility without further delay.

Indian Government trying to find an answer in CL/NLEM/NPPP 2012:

Going by the recent developments in Compulsory License (CL) area for high priced new and innovative cancer drugs, it appears that in the times to come exorbitant prices for cancer drugs may prove to be loaded with risks of grant of CL in India due to immense public pressure.

It appears from the grapevine that Government may also explore the possibility to include some of the newer cancer drugs under National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) bringing them under price control in conformance with the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy 2012 (NPPP 2012), if not through the provision of pricing of patented drugs.

Thus responsible pricing of cancer drugs assumes huge importance for avoidance of the above unpleasant situation in India.

Cancer drug pricing related developments in India:

As stated above, cancer being the second largest killer in India and the patented cancer drugs being generally expensive, a large Indian pharmaceutical player has been reportedly insisting on the government to allow widespread use of “compulsory licenses” for cancer drugs. About 11 years ago various news reports highlighted that this company broke ‘monopoly ‘ of the multinationals by offering to supply life-saving triple therapy AIDS drug cocktails for under US$1 a day, which is about one-thirtieth the price of the global companies.

In May 2012, this same Indian company named Cipla, significantly reduced the cost of three medicines to fight brain, kidney and lung cancers in India, making these drugs around four times cheaper than the originators, as per the above news report. The company reportedly wants to reduce the prices of more cancer drugs in future.

Prompted by the above steps taken by Dr. Yusuf Hamied, the Chairman of Cipla, many global players have reportedly branded him as an Intellectual Property (IP) thief, while Dr. Hamied reportedly accused them of being “Global Serial Killers” whose high prices are costing many precious lives across the globe.

In the same interview Dr. Hamied said poverty-racked India “can’t afford to divide people into those who can afford life-saving drugs and those who can’t”.

Promising future potential for low cost newer generic cancer drugs:  

While R&D initiatives are going on full throttle for newer and innovative drugs for cancer, interestingly over a quarter of the following 15 brands, which will go off-patent in 2013 are for cancer, throwing open the door for cheaper newer generics entry and increasing access to these medicine for a larger population of cancer patients.

Patent expiry in 2013

Rank	Brand	Generic name	Therapy Area	Company	Patent Expiry	Sales US$ billion (2012)
1.	Cymbalta	Duloxetine	Antidepressant, musculoskeletal pain	Eli Lilly/Shionogi	Dec 11	4.9
2.	Avonex	Interferon beta1a	Multiple Sclerosis (MS)	Biogen Idec	Dec 31	2.9
3.	Humalog	Insulin lispro	Anti-diabetic	Eli Lilly	May 7	2,52
4.	OxyContin	Oxycodone	Pain	Perdue	August 31,	2.35
5.	Rebif	Interferon beta-1a	Multiple Sclerosis (MS)	Merck KgaA	Dec 31	2.3
6.	Aciphex	Rabeprazole	Acid-peptic disorder	J&J, Eisai	May 8	1.93
7.	Xeloda	Capecitabin	Cancer	Roche	Dec 14	1.63
8.	Procrit	Epoetin Alfa	Anemia	J&J	Aug 29	1.41
9.	Neupogen	Filgrastim	Cancer	Amgen, Kirin, Roche, Royalty Pharma	Dec 12	1.29
10.	Zometa	Zoledronic Acid	Cancer	Novartis	March 2	1.26
11.	Lidoderm	Lidocaine patch 5%	Pain-relieving patch	Endo Health Solutions/ EpiCept	Sep 15	0.918
12.	Temodar	Temozolomide	Cancer	Merck, Bayer	Aug 31	0.882
13.	Asacol	Mesalamine	Ulcerative Colitis	Warner Chilcott, UCB, Zeria Pharma	Jul 30	0.891
14.	Niaspan	Niacin	Anti-lipid	Abbott, Teva	Sep 20	0.835
15	Reclast	Zoledronic acid injection	Osteoporosis	Novartis	March 02	0.612

(Source: Fierce Pharma)

A thought:

Initiatives for faster resolution of a pressing issue like providing affordable treatment for cancer should not be put in the back burner of a longer term planning process. The issue is very real, humanitarian, here and now, for all of us. The Government is expected to display some sense of urgency through its expeditious intervention in all the four of the following treatment processes for cancer to make them affordable, if not free for the general population:

Medical intervention and consultation
Diagnostic tests and detection
Surgical procedure and hospitalization
Medicines and chemotherapy

As ‘The Lancet” study mentions, cancer in India is all-pervasive. It has no rich or poor, urban or rural or even any gender bias. It needs to be addressed in a holistic way for the benefit of all.

Conclusion:

High incidence of cancer in India with even higher mortality rate, coupled with very high treatment cost has positioned this disease area in the eye of a stormy debate for quite some time. The naked fact that a large number of Indian population cannot afford the high treatment cost for cancer as ‘Out of Pocket’ expenditure, has made the issue even more sensitive and socially relevant in India.

Pricing issue for cancer drugs is not just India centric. Even in the developed countries, heated debate on expensive new drugs, especially, in the oncology segment is brewing up for a while. This could possibly assume a much larger proportion in not too distant future.

It is about time for also the private players to come forward and extend support to the Government in a joint endeavor to tame the destructibility and catastrophic effect of this dreaded disease on human lives, families and the society in general. Setting access improving tangible examples through Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives, rather than mere pontification of any kind, is the need of the hour.

If it does not happen, soon enough, willy-nilly the concerned players in this area may get caught in a much fiercer debate, possibly with a force multiplier effect, inviting more desperate measures by the Government.

Responsible pricing, for the patients’ sake, of each element of the cancer treatment process will ultimately assume a critical importance, not just for survival and progress of any business, but also to fetch pots of gold, as business return, from the ‘El Dorado’ of ‘Oncology Segment’ of India.

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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