Big Pharma Fails Avoiding Drug Price ‘Control’? Even In The US? Why?

Posted on August 22, 2022 by Tapan Ray

It ultimately happened – even in the United States, as the US President signed a bill on August 16, 2022 that aims to reduce healthcare costs, alongside fighting climate change, besides raising taxes on the rich. This new law was enacted, despite powerful lobbying and the vehement opposition of big pharma associations and that too in their home turf.

According to the Fierce Pharma report of the same day, since the current US President moved into the White House in 2020, the drug industry left no stone unturned battling to preserve pricing status-quo. It further added, the ‘pharmaceutical industry, including, PhRMA, its allies, and the nation’s largest pharmaceutical firms’ have spent more than $205 million in multi-media ads opposing ‘Medicare price negotiations’ and lobbying against efforts to lower drug prices for consumers.’

No wonder, when the bill was just introduced to the US lawmakers, big pharma’s disappointment on the bill was palpable. This gets well-captured in what the AbbVie CEO pointed out at that time. He said, ‘the legislation would force manufacturers to accept the government’s proposed price or face a harsh tax on their revenues from a given product.’ He also said: “So, it’s not a negotiation,” as stated in the bill. He further opined in his conference call: “We should just call it what it is. It’s price controls,’ which is what the lawmakers are ‘basically putting in place, if the language stays the same,’ the AbbVie chief added.

Capturing this new development in the United States, at least, in the recent past - Fierce Pharma in its August 08, 2022, issue commented: “The seemingly unstoppable pharma lobbying force has lost its charm. With the passage of a new bill, the U.S. Senate is opening the door to major drug pricing reform, leaving the drug industry licking its wounds.”

In the Eldorado of the global drug industry, this is indeed an unprecedented initiative to significantly reduce costs of many important drugs and reduce patients’ out of pocket expenses. Consequently, it has created so much of hullabaloo, across the world, for various reasons. In this article, I shall track this emerging scenario along with the message that it sends across the globe, and its possible impact on new drug innovation to meet unmet needs of patients. In India, one such area could be revisiting the price negotiation proposal for patented drugs, a government initiative that failed to take off earlier.

Would lowering prices stifle new drug innovation?

The apprehension, I reckon, that big pharma will continue to play with - price control will stifle new product innovation – adversely impacting patient interest. Notably, to many industry experts, this argument doesn’t just lack robustness, seems more a conjecture rather than the outcome of any peer- reviewed research study findings. On ewthe contrary, several highly credible and independent studies prove otherwise. Thus, let me put hereunder:

One – what big pharma directly and through their powerful industry associations or some financially sponsored studies are saying

And – what the top experts concluded from their independent analysis in this regard, as published in the globally acclaimed journals.

I leave it to my readers to evaluate the credibility of each to form their views.

Drug industry arguments supported by recent studies:

The findings of a study conducted recently, with the financial support of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO), Amgen, Pfizer, Alexion, AbbVie, Genentech, and Bristol Myers Squibb, were released by PhRMA on November 23, 2021. The study was conducted by Vital Transformation. The key findings of this study highlighted: ‘Every 10% drop in the price of medicines in price-controlled EU markets was associated with a:

14% decrease in total VC funding (10% early stage and 17% late stage)
7% decrease in biotech patents
9% decrease in biotech start-up funding relative to the US
An 8% increase in the delay of access to medicines.

It concluded: ‘Drug pricing controls implemented in the US would likely have an even greater impact on Biopharma KPIs given its global leadership in investment and innovation.’

Independent expert studies, published in highly reputed journals:

Around the same time as the above report, an independent study published in the Harvard Business Review (HBR) on October 01, 2021, found exactly the opposite. It categorically stated: ‘The U.S. can lower drug prices without sacrificing innovation.’

The paper summed up: ‘With Congress considering legislation to allow Medicare to use its bargaining power to negotiate lower drug prices, large pharmaceutical companies are once again waging a campaign that contends that doing so would seriously harm the development of breakthrough drugs. This is not true. Smaller companies now account for the lion’s share of such breakthroughs. The key to supporting drug innovation is to increase NIH funding of the efforts that give rise to these new companies, cut the costs, and accelerate the speed of clinical trials, and reform patent law.’

Drug pricing in the Indian context:

Prices of, especially, new drugs and the overall cost of healthcare are two major concerns – more in the developing countries like India. Responding to this need drug price control for pre-defined essential medicines are already in place in the country. More recent studies further vindicate the relevance of such regulation from the perspective of affordability of drugs for the poorer section of the society, and where out of pocket expenses are very high.

Let me quote one such paper, published on June 04, 2022, which received no outside financial support from this study, where the researchers concluded: ‘With induced demand and an inadequate competitive environment, the pharmaceutical industry fails to reduce prices. Supply-chain trade margins are very high. Hence, government intervention through price control of essential and life-saving drugs is a necessity in India.’

In this context, another question that is being raised – are there other alternatives to expand access to high-priced life-saving drugs at an affordable cost to all those who need those most? The most common alternative that floats, encourage more competition for those drugs as soon as they go off patent. Let me examine what’s big pharma players are doing in that area.

Does Big Pharma encourage increasing competition to reduce drug prices?

Another way to reduce the price of an expensive product is encouraging competition to enable market forces bring down the price. An interesting article on breaking the rule of drug pricing by pharma companies was published in the Forbes magazine on June 29, 2022. I also wrote on June 10, 2013: ‘To scale-up access to health care, especially for the marginalized population of any country, greater access to affordable generic drugs will always remain fundamental, besides improving healthcare infrastructure and its delivery mechanism.’

Thus, there should be a robust mechanism, across the world, to facilitate quick entry of cheaper generic equivalents immediately after patent expiry of the original molecule. Increasing attempts of blocking entry of generics surreptitiously by vested interests, leaves no other alternative, but price control. This is imperative, ‘as without the availability of newer generics, unmet medical needs of the most vulnerable section of the society cannot be met effectively by any country, as I wrote there.

Attempts to game the system to minimize competition continue unabated:

Even after my article, this red flag is being raised for quite some time. It will be evident from another Harvard Business Review article titled, ‘How Pharma Companies Game the System to Keep Drugs Expensive,’ published in the on April 06, 2017. Acknowledging: ‘Drug development is risky and expensive, thanks to the long testing and approval process,’ the author concluded from their study – ‘But, increasingly, makers of branded drugs are using a variety of tactics to extend their exclusive rights,’ enabling them to maintain high drug prices for much longer time.

More recently, the above Forbes article of June 10, 2022 also highlighted, ‘even the most generous patent protections come to an end and companies must face the potential for generic competition. That’s when major drug manufacturers shift tactics from influencing policy to crushing the competition.’ There are several legal and semi-legal approaches that big pharma players adapt to game the system and maintain pricing monopoly. Let’s recap it with just three of these examples:

- ‘Patent Thicket: Delaying entry of lower price off-patent molecule through a Patent Thicket. This involves creation of ‘a dense web of overlapping intellectual property rights that a generic pharma company must hack its way through in order to actually commercialize new technology of a drug molecule,’ even after the original patent expires. For example, AbbVie’s Humira, the world’s best-selling drug for a long time. I also discussed this issue in my blog over three years ago – on April 22, 2019.

- ‘Pay-for-delay deals’: I discussed this issue in this blog on June 19, 2013. Moreover, the above Forbes article of June 29, 2022, also underscored this tactic. It explained that this is a deal in which drug companies agree not to compete for a set amount of time to maintain high prices of their brand-name drugs. The article, published in Bloomberg Law on February 20, 2020, captures it nicely.

- Authorized generics: As many would know, law permits six months of exclusivity to the first generic version of an off-patent new molecule coming into the market. Interestingly, just before patent expiry of an innovative drug, several drug makers roll out their own generics to stifle competition. Although, they keep different names for the generic versions, but pricing remains almost similar. Such a practice obliviously delays the entry of cheaper generics, at least by six months.

In this scenario, the new drug prices continue racing north. Something was to be surely done – for patients’ sake, as many believe, at least, where it all started – the US.

New drug prices are highest in 2022:

As reported by Reuters on August 16, 2022:

Eight of 13 drugs launched in 2022 priced over $200,000 per year
Median annual price for new U.S. drugs this year is $257,000
Some drugmakers disclose less information on pricing

Despite this, as reported on August 15, 2022: ‘The main U.S. drug lobby has said it will push back against the legislation, which includes policies that drug makers have opposed for decades.’

Conclusion:

The significance of the above development in the US healthcare scenario, was aptly summed-up by the US House Speaker, as she said: “If you are sitting at your kitchen table and wonder how you’re going to pay the bills – your health care bills, your prescription drug bills – this bill is for you.” For the first time in the US – the champion of champions of free-drug pricing market, will negotiate the drug price with their manufacturers to become patient -centric.

The reverberations of this difficult decision, especially on new drug prices, are expected to prompt the need for price negotiation or price control, primarily for expanding access to new drugs for a larger number of patients. This deserves to be a focus area for the Government, including India. Moreover, the August 18, 2022, media report also suggests that the top court of India may now encourage the Government to investigate, report and take remedial action on drug industry malpractices.

Finally, it’s worth noting that over a decade ago, international media widely reported - ‘India considering price controls for patented drugs.’ Its objective was to address the aggressive new drug pricing trend in the country. Accordingly, the price negotiation proposal for patented drugs was notified by the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) in 2007. The constituted Committee submitted a report, as well, on February 21, 2013. But it did not take off as on date. Many apprehend, this is due to intensive and ongoing lobbying by big pharma, just as what happened in the US. Nevertheless, the question that surfaces – will the above new drug law in the largest pharma market in the world encourage the DoP to revisit price negotiation for patented drugs - to make modern drugs affordable to a larger patient population in India – now?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

To Reduce Disease Burden India Launches A New Study On Access to Affordable Drugs

Posted on March 28, 2022 by Tapan Ray

As India is struggling hard to come out of economic meltdown, and more – while navigating through the Covid-19 pandemic, the issue of reducing the National Disease Burden (NDP) with comprehensive measures resurfaces. According to a World Bank study, with ’17.5% of the global population, India bears 20% of the global disease burden.’

It’s also a well-reported fact that one such critical measure in this area is expanding access to affordable medicines to a vast Indian population. This is essential, despite some laudable measures taken by the country in this space. Which is why, it has attracted the government’s focus – yet again, even in the new normal.

This is evident from the Notification of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) dated 13.01.2022. This pertains to the DoP’s request for Proposal (RFP) from reputed companies, “To study the drug pricing policies of different countries/ region and lessons learnt from these countries/ regions in terms of access to medicine at affordable prices.” The selected company will conduct the study, on behalf of the government to understand the drug pricing methodology adopted in at least 10 countries, it said.

According to the RFP document, a minimum of ten countries/regions that should be covered are – Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, China, EU, UK, Australia, USA, Brazil, South Africa, and Thailand. It also mentioned, after selection – the chosen company has to submit its final report in four months, besides quarterly progress report during this period.

This article will focus on the relevance of a renewed government focus on access to affordable medicines, after the third wave of the pandemic, even after various recent measures undertaken by the government in this direction.

What does ‘access’ mean in the healthcare context – a recap:

Although, ‘access’ is a well-used word in the health care scenario, let me recapitulate the same to be on the same page with my readers in this discourse. According to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ): Access to health care means having “the timely use of personal health services to achieve the best health outcomes.” It has four components, namely:

Coverage: facilitates entry into the health care system. Uninsured people are less likely to receive medical care and more likely to have poor health status.

Services: provides a source of care, associated with adults receiving recommended screening and prevention services.

Timeliness: ability to provide health care when the need is recognized.

Workforce: capable, qualified, culturally competent health care personnel.

Let me emphasize again that the purpose of recapitulating what does healthcare ‘access’ mean, is to give a sense of how are we positioned in India, in this regard.

Key reasons for inadequate access to healthcare, especially in India:

Following are three fundamental reasons for lack, or inadequate access to healthcare, as relevant to India:

A large section of the population cannot access healthcare owing its cost relative to their respective income.

Many others can’t access, as no quality and affordable facilities are located nearby where they live.

Most importantly, a large Indian population can’t have adequate access to quality health care, because they don’t have any healthcare coverage. This point was flagged by the AHRQ, as well.

It is, therefore, noteworthy that to ensure access to quality healthcare, either free or affordable, health coverage for all – public or private, is critical for any nation. Whereas a large Indian population still remains without any health coverage, as the recent government publications vindicate.

Despite high OOPE a large population is still without any health coverage:

On this issue, NITI Aayog report, published in October 2021, shared some important facts. A staggering number of over 400 million Indians, still live without any financial protection for health. This is despite the launch of ‘Ayushman Bharat – Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY)’ launched in September 2018, and State Government extension schemes, the paper says. Notably, ‘the actual uncovered population is higher due to existing coverage gaps in PMJAY and overlap between schemes,’ the report added.

Interestingly, the paper acknowledged: “Low Government expenditure on health has constrained the capacity and quality of healthcare services in the public sector. It diverts most individuals – about two-thirds – to seek treatment in the costlier private sector. “As low financial protection leads to high out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE). India’s population is vulnerable to catastrophic spending, and impoverishment from expensive trips to hospitals and other health facilities,” it observed.

The government spending on public health at 1.5% of GDP, remains among the lowest in the world impacting reach, capacity, and quality of public healthcare services. It is compelling people to seek treatment in the costlier private sector. Almost 60% of all hospitalizations, and 70% of outpatient services are delivered by the high-cost private sector, NITI Aayog highlighted.

Major part of OOPE goes for buying drugs:

According to the W.H.O’s health financing profile 2017, 67.78% of total expenditure on health in India was paid out of pocket, while the world average is just 18.2%. Moreover, the Union Health ministry had also reported that ‘medicines are the biggest financial burden on Indian households.’ Around 43% of OOPE towards health, reportedly, went for buying medicines and 28% in private hospitals.

Thus: ‘Much of this problem of debt can be solved if medicines are made available to people at affordable prices. The National Health Policy 2017 also highlighted the need for providing free medicines in public health facilities by stepping up funding and improving drug procurement and supply chain mechanisms,” the report added.

Access to affordable drugs continues to remain a top priority today:

The above point was also emphasized in the Annual Report 2020-21 of the Department of Pharmaceuticals. It underscored: ‘The Government is now contemplating to introduce a new National Pharmaceutical Policy, where – ‘Making essential drugs accessible at affordable prices to the common masses,’ featured at the top of the policy objectives, as follows:

Making essential drugs accessible at affordable prices to the common masses.
Providing a long-term stable policy environment for the pharmaceutical sector.
Making India sufficiently self-reliant in end-to-end indigenous drug manufacturing.
Ensuring world class quality of drugs for domestic consumption & exports.
Creating an environment for R & D to produce innovator drugs;
Ensuring the growth and development of the Indian Pharma Industry.

What happens when all will come under health coverage, if at all:

Even when, and if, all Indians comes under health coverage – public or private – drug cost will continue to play a major role even to the institutional payers. This is mostly to ensure the cost of health coverage remains reasonable, and affordable to all. This can possibly be done either through:

Price negotiation with the manufacturers, or
Price control by the government

In any case, there needs to be a transparent mechanism for either of above two, which the government seems to be refocusing on, as it appears today.

Conclusion:

Thus, to reduce the burden of disease in India, especially after going through a harrowing experience of the Covid-19 pandemic, where co-morbidity posed a major threat to life, India is likely to up the ante, as we move into the new normal.

From this viewpoint, a brand-new study, as mentioned above, initiated by the government to facilitate expanded access to affordable medicines, is a laudable initiative for all Indians. It’s a noteworthy point for the drug industry, as well, especially, the research-based pharma and biotech companies. As I wrote before, they should also pick this signal to focus on all 3 areas of innovation for affordable access to innovative drugs, not just on costly patented drugs for only those who can afford.

By: Tapan J. Ray

What Have And Haven’t Changed In Pharma’s New Normal?

Posted on September 26, 2021 by Tapan Ray

While navigating through the challenge of disruptive changes, several pharma marketers are now focusing more on creating, connecting, and leveraging all market and customer related data, across the organization. Astute ones are using state-of-the-art tools, platforms, and techniques to gain actionable insights on new demands of pharma markets. I wrote about it in my article - ‘Data: the new ‘Magic Wand’ For Pharma Business Excellence,’ published in this blog on October 01, 2018.

This process is helping them to fathom what areas the pandemic has changed and what it hasn’t. Their aim is to draw cutting-edge strategies accordingly for market effectiveness – outperforming competition. This article will explore that space with contemporary examples. Let me start with a few illustrations of some hits and misses for the treatment of Covid – as the world started learning to live with this menacing virus. This was enviable, as the requisite scientific date wasn’t readily available at that moment of truth. But the time has changed now.

Some hits and misses:

As the pandemic overwhelmed the world, and no well-documented treatment for infection caused by the brand new virus – Covid-19 was available, many drug players were given quick emergency approval by country regulators for some repurposed drugs. But most of those weren’t found effective as fresh clinical data started pouring in. For example, the World Health Organization (WHO), have, reportedly, indicated that remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on 28-day mortality or the in-hospital course of COVID-19 among hospitalized patients.

More recently, Gilead Sciences Veklury – a failed Ebola drug, repurposed for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, suddenly became a blockbuster drug, according to a September 17, 2021 report. However, in less than a year, alongside more research data - a study from Europe, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, showed that Veklury has no real benefit. The report also highlights: ‘Aided by a ringing endorsement from then-president Donald Trump, Veklury rang up sales of $2.8 billion in 2020, including $1.9 billion in the final quarter. But those sales slid this year to $1.5 billion in the first quarter followed by $829 million in the second quarter.’

Similarly, there are several areas that are seemingly getting transformed, triggered by the pandemic and the time for resorting to a hit or miss approach, is now virtually over. From pharma marketers’ point of interest, it will now be at one’s own peril for not challenging the pre-Covid business traditions, rules, and well-tried strategies on customer relationships and brand building models. This brings us to the question on what specifically have changed in the new normal as the pharma industry navigates thorough the Covid pandemic – for close to two years now.

Pandemic-triggered changes in the pharma marketing area:

Changes are many and are being studied across the world. One such recent analysis, articulating how the pandemic triggered changes have redefined marketing, was published by the Harvard Business Review (HBR), on March 10, 2021. This paper came more than a year after the pandemic overwhelmed the world. This article listed some interesting macro-level changes, including the following:

Old normal: You are competing with your competitors.
New normal: You are competing with the last best experience your customer had.

Old normal: Customers hope you have what they want.
New normall: Customers expect you to have exactly what they want.

Old normal: Courting customers is just like dating.
New normal: Courting customers is just like online dating.

Old normal: Customers must sit at the heart of your marketing strategy.
New normal: Customers must sit at the heart of your customer journey.

Old normal: Agility is a technology process.
New normal: Agility is a modern marketing approach.

Old normal: Your brand should stand behind great products.
New normal: Your brand should stand behind great values.

To illustrate the point, let me now give a few examples of some micro-level changes in the same space.

Some transformation trends:

I am citing a few examples related to pharma’s traditional sales and marketing models. One such area is, quite a few companies are adopting connected data based and analytics-supported Omnichannel approach for customer engagement. The key objective is to deliver coherent and high-quality customer experience.

The need for new commercial models for the changing life sciences market, was also highlighted in an interesting article, published in the Pharmaceutical Executive on September 16, 2021. The authors identified six health care macro trends, demonstrating the value of transforming care delivery and shifting market behavior that prompt to reframe customer value propositions.

Taking a cue from this paper, I am listing below some of the current trends – as I see these and wrote before in this blog. Each one of these calls for well-connected data with analytics support:

Staying relevant to customers with a focus on customer experience.

‘Made to measure’ marketing for personalized care, as “one-size-fits-all” care regimens losing its relevance.

Fostering a new genre of ‘customer-brand relationship’ to drive more targeted go‑to‑market strategies, enhanced agility/mobility of resources and highly personalized customer interactions.

Augmenting pharma customers’ new value expectations for competitive advantages, besides dynamic forecasting, sales force performance analytics support and predictive pricing modeling.

Arriving at right and flexible customer value delivery models, as the health care sector shifts toward new sites of care – outside the traditional old normal models. For example, with more patients preferring Telehealth pharma marketing needs retooling to reap a rich harvest.

Meeting the growing demand for value‑based care with novel risk‑adjusted and outcome‑based Price-Value-Models, supported by ongoing innovation in this area and sophisticated approach to value, affordability and outcomes.

Interestingly, despite Herculean constraints, many pharma players continued creating and delivering value, as the customers were expecting with changing situations.

Drug-price sensitivity is increasing:

In the new normal, drug price sensitivity of customers is increasing manifold, for various reasons. A June 18, 2020 study, flags: ‘Nine in 10 Concerned About Rising Drug Costs Due to COVID-19.’ Although, this particular study (Gallup Poll) was conducted in the United States, general public apprehension is no different in other parts of the world, including India.

In my article of September 14, 2020, I also wrote that the concept of ‘fair pricing a drug’ is being deliberated by many experts around the world, since quite some time, till today. But it continues. Most recently, as reported on September 22, 2021, for different reasons related to its new Alzheimer’s drug - Aduhelm, including its hefty price tag of $56,000 annually per patient, ‘Biogen reps banned from D.C.-area neurology clinics.’

Regardless of such customer reactions, the pharma industry, as reported on September 17, 2021, continues to advocate – drug pricing pressure will stifle innovation, blocking patient access to needed medicines and dry up investment in important R&D on new therapies. Curiously, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), is spending more than $1 million on TV ads as part of a massive lobbying and communications campaign emphasizing the potential harm to patients seeking cures for deadly diseases, as the report highlights.

Innovation – remained mostly unhindered from old to new normal:

Customers’ expectations can’t be ignored indefinitely. Interestingly, the world has also witnessed it with Covid drug and vaccine innovation continuing even during the most trying times during the pandemic, even in India. It is, therefore, quite understandable why unfettered access to drug innovation is considered an oxymoron, by many.

The good news is, despite shrill voices over pricing measures, the quest for adding meaningful value to the healthcare space continues unhindered. As reported on September 19, 2021, both Pfizer and Merck are advancing oral antiviral candidates targeting Covid-19 into late-stage testing. Thus, I reckon, regardless of jarring noise from pharma lobbyists, drug innovation, willy-nilly, has to satisfy the diverse demand of health care customers.

Innovation needs to satisfy demands of diverse healthcare customers:

That, increasingly, drug innovations will need to be based on their ability to satisfy the demands of life sciences companies’ diverse customer-perceived value-based, was also echoed by the Pharmaceutical Executive article of September 16, 2021.

While doing so, companies will need to structure innovation in terms of health outcomes, affordability, and personalization, as the paper emphasized. It further added, ‘broader definition of innovation means products are no longer the central driver of value.’ Instead, innovation will be powered by an increasingly diverse stream of data that resides outside the confines of the traditional health ecosystem.

Covid pandemic accelerated the transition of this process of innovation, drawing its new focus on providing a seamless and holistic customer experience in the disease treatment process – supported by advanced analytics and this deeper understanding of customer segments.

Conclusion:

Many pharma marketers have possibly undertaken a sophisticated and credible market scanning exercise in the new normal, to assess by themselves what have or haven’t changed in their customer preferences and market dynamics. If not, I would encourage them to initiate it, at least, now.

Equally noteworthy, as the above HBR article wrote, in the post pandemic period: ‘Beyond geography, marketing messages need to be personally relevant, aligned to an individual’s situation and values, as opposed to demographics, such as age and gender.’

The objective is to create a personal connection between the customer and the brand promotional content, aiming to influence the prescribing and purchasing behavior, based on their psychographic to attitudinal characteristics. This process would require creating and screening lots of customized data, supported by sophisticated analytics.

From the above perspective, I reckon, deep insight on what have or haven’t changed in the healthcare environment alongside its customers, would be of fundamental importance for pharma marketers, in the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

To Allay Customers’ New Apprehensions Pharma Needs A New Conversation

Posted on May 17, 2021 by Tapan Ray

Since the beginning of 2020, witnessing the rapid spread of Covid pandemic with very high global fatality rate – virtually the entire global populations – directly or indirectly, have been looking up to the health care industry for help. This, of course, includes the drug industry – with high expectations of people on deliverables, blended with palpable apprehensions on what’s happening around.

Amid the wave after wave attack of Covid-19, many have realized that there will neither be any quick-fix or immediate solution to tame the virus. As India goes through the Covid 2.0 catastrophe, while waiting for Covid 3.0, a similar situation prevails in the country – with a sense of lurking fear for future uncertainties, slowly but steadily creeping in.

Thus, an unprecedented public expectation for speedy disentanglement of Covid-19 disruptions, confer a huge responsibility to all health care providers and entities, such as, the drug industry, which will be my key focus in this article. Just as any extraordinary situation calls for extraordinary initiatives, this national tragedy also demands from pharma professionals to start a new and proactive conversation, driven by ‘out of-box’ thinking.

I shall explore in this article, in which areas pharma needs to roll out a new conversation to meet with new expectations of its stakeholders, formed during the Covid Pandemic. This engagement needs to go beyond drugs and vaccines, spanning across key contemporary developments that are bothering pharma customers. The aim should be to help customers visualize a brighter horizon based on scientific reasons, in not-too-distant future, such as:

How several pharma companies are taking novel initiatives, as a part of their corporate objectives to save lives and livelihoods, faster.
How pharma players are thinking ‘out of the box’ to allay Covid related public apprehensions and neutralizing gross misinformation on Covid cure – based on scientific reasons, often selectively deploying their staff members.

In this regard, let me start with a recent advice of a top pharma veteran of global repute, especially on political and public expectations of ‘the endpoint’ for successful prevention and effective treatment of Covid-19 infections.

When focus is on ‘the end point – the price point’, it needs pharma’s attention:

Former CEO of Novartis Joe Jimenez – Ex-Novartis CEO and CEO & Cofounder of Aditum Bio, advised the same in an interview with Reuters Events, published on April 06, 2021. Although this was against the backdrop of the United States, the same is applicable to India, as well.

There, Jimenez said: “And I think the political focus in the United States is too often on the end point, the price point, which definitely needs attention, but not enough on the whole pipeline. And that absolutely needs attention and can bring down the price point at the end of the day.”

“It’s the pharmaceutical industry’s responsibility to show how their drug can lower total costs through the system, whether it’s reducing hospitalization or whether it is reducing other health care costs and comorbidities that lead to ever increasing budgets. If the industry focuses on that, I think I think that’s going to result in better launch success in the next few years,” he added.

However, there is another endpoint – of equal importance, especially in the Covid-19 prevention and the treatment process.

The other end point is equally important, as there may be an extended need for Covid vaccines:

Wider access to Covid drugs and vaccines is another political and general public’s ‘end point’ of expectations, besides price. As I wrote in my previous article, on October 02, 2021, India and South Africa had proposed at the WTO about an IP waiver for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines to resolve the issues of access and affordability for these products.

Thereafter, on May 05, 2021, the United States also issued a statement supporting the IP waiver for Covid-19 vaccines at the WTO, in its ‘service of ending this pandemic.’ As reported on May 13, 2021, even China now backs the drugs and vaccine IP waiver at the WTO.

Patent waiver for Covid drugs and vaccines make sense for the coming years, especially, in view of the reports that ‘Pfizer, Regeneron CEOs see extended need for COVID-19 vaccines, treatments as pandemic enters the next phase.’ Adding that the data stressed a “need” for re-vaccinations, the Pfizer CEO said, while protection remains high for those six months, it does “go down by time.” Thus, the need for Covid vaccine may continue to remain as important as of date, to prevent the pandemic over, at least, a couple of years, if not beyond.

That apart, some interesting developments followed soon – coincidentally or otherwise.

Meanwhile, some pharma companies responded with laudable initiatives:

Presumably, for wider availability and affordability of Covid drugs and vaccines, several pharma players alone or in association with governments, took some laudable initiatives. A few examples are, as follows:

On May 10, 2021, BioNTech, which has partnered with Pfizer to produce its COVID-19 vaccine, said it plans to set up a new manufacturing site in Singapore, with a capacity to produce several hundred million doses of mRNA-based vaccine.

As reported on the same day, as above, Eli Lilly promised to supply India with thousands of tablets of baricitinib for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. It also pledged to sign a royalty-free, non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements with Cipla, Lupin and Sun Pharma—to expand baricitinib’s availability in the country. Notably, in this month itself, the DCGI has authorized baricitinib plus remdesivir combo for emergency use of ‘hospitalized patients requiring supplemental oxygen, invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).’ Baricitinib has also faced a shortage of during the Covid 2.0 surge.

As per reports of May 12, 2021: ‘The US is looking at joint production of Johnson and Johnson’s Covid vaccine in India and ways to help manufacturers like Serum Institute of India (SII) to boost production,’

Pharma’s new role to allay public apprehensions in many Covid related areas:

In this complex scenario, various public apprehensions on Covid vaccines and drugs, need to be explained with scientific evidence – in a common man’s language. These include frequent changes in the dosage interval between two doses of some vaccines, whereas for other vaccines there isn’t any change in this area. Or why in India even within a group of fully vaccinated individuals, wearing masks or maintaining social distancing norms are necessary, when these requirements have been relaxed for fully vaccinated people in the United States. Or, when reports like: ‘Covid Cases Double In World’s Most-Vaccinated Nation, Raising Concerns,’ add fuel to the fire of public apprehensions in this regard.

Drug companies, especially those who are engaged in the global battle against Covid-19 – in their research lab, product development process, including clinical trials, can play an additional stellar role in this area, too. With ‘out of the box ideas’ for Covid related public engagement, they can scientifically respond to all public apprehensions with scientific reasons, in a simple language, on what is happening around most people, nowadays. Selective deployment of their own staff members can also make the initiative more meaningful.

This conversation may also include, science-based response to some bizarre claims of ‘Covid cure’ – from religious leaders having significant followers, and even by Union Ministers, without hurting their feelings or sentiments. These ‘advices’ were widely circulated by the mainstream global and local media, including the Wall Street Journal.

For example, one such report said: The president of a century-old religious organization declared that “consuming cow urine and cow dung will stop the effect of infectious coronavirus.” The swami added that a “person who chants ‘om namah shivay’ and applies cow dung” on his body “will be saved.” However, it was also reported that ‘Indian doctors warn against cow dung as Covid cure.’ Similar advice in different forms, even by elected politicians, keeps misguiding many unsuspected members of the public.

Conclusion:

A series of Covid related contemporary needs and apprehensions, besides the traditional ones are surfacing. These are to be mitigated, on an ongoing basis. Pharma players – individually and collectively, instead of being always reactive, may wish to volunteer to proactively address these issues to help people move in the right direction.

As Covid appears to be a medium to long-haul battle – unlike most other pandemics, pharma companies need to think ‘out of the box’ to create innovative – new – and proactive conversation models in this space. In turn, the initiatives will help them win long-term trust and loyalty of customers – that will always remain as invaluable assets, fueling sustainable growth in business.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Impact of Covid Vaccines’ Possible IP Waiver In India

Posted on May 10, 2021 by Tapan Ray

Just when Covid 2.0 rages in India with almost 4,000 people died in just 24 hours, scientists warn that Covid 3.0, and further waves are now ‘inevitable, reported Reuters on May 06, 2021. With hospitals running short of beds and oxygen during the onslaught of Covid 2.0, the World Health Organization (WHO) highlighted, ‘India accounted for nearly half the coronavirus cases reported worldwide last week, and a quarter of the deaths.’

The report revealed some more heartrending details: ‘Many people have died in ambulances and car parks waiting for a bed or oxygen, while morgues and crematoriums struggle to deal with a seemingly unstoppable flow of bodies.’

No visible overall improvements with ‘here and now decisions’ or maybe the lack of it, of the National Covid Management Team, is perceptible, just yet. It’s also a matter of further concern that unlike what happened during Covid 1.0, the second wave of the virus, reportedly, ‘started hitting even young adults hard – leaving countless children to fend for themselves.’

Ironically, alongside a rapid surge in infections, India witnesses a sharp decline in Covid vaccination numbers though more people are eligible. The key reasons being supply chain related problems, despite India being one of the largest vaccine producers, globally. In my last article published in this blog, I broached on finding a possible exit to this covid 2.0 maze in India. However, this article will explore some unprecedented developments of the last week in this area. To give a perspective, let me start by exploring whether the people responsible for Covid Governance in India, grossly misjudged the situation, claiming the ‘endgame’ of Covid-19, too soon.

‘India announced its triumph over Covid-19 early’:

A third Covid-19 wave is inevitable, but the timing could not be predicted, said India’s principal scientific advisor on May 05, 2021. Intriguingly, less than two months back, the national Government announced its triumph over Covid-19. On March 08, 2021, as Covid vaccination process for senior citizens and people above 45 years with comorbidities had just commenced, the Union Health Minister claimed, ‘India is in the endgame of the novel coronavirus pandemic.’ Just about a couple of months later, it sounded akin to a note of hubris for many, which prevailed, by and large, across the nation.

Acknowledging the same, on May 04, 2021, even Uday Kotak, MD&CEO Kotak Mahindra Bank and President CII commented, ‘India announced triumph over Covid-19 early’. He further urged: “We have to do whatever it takes to save lives first, even as we battle for livelihoods. And if our healthcare capacity is currently going through its challenges, we must be ready to curtail non-essential economic activities.” The latest editorial from ‘The Lancet’ also highlighted the same.

India’s Covid 2.0 – “A self-inflicted national catastrophe” – The Lancet

Yes. The editorial of the latest – May 08, 2021 issue of The Lancet, also reiterated so. It emphasized, ignoring warnings about the risks of super spreader events, the government allowed congregations of millions of people from across India in religious festivals, along with huge political rallies with utter disregard to Covid appropriate behavior. ‘The message that COVID-19 was essentially over also slowed the start of India’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which has vaccinated less than 2% of the population.’ India’s national vaccination plan soon fell apart with the government abruptly expanded vaccination to all 18 years, draining supplies, ‘and creating mass confusion and a market for vaccine doses in which states and hospital systems competed.’

The IHME estimates a staggering 1 million deaths from COVID-19 in India by Aug 01, 2021. ‘If that outcome were to happen, Modi’s Government would be responsible for presiding over a self-inflicted national catastrophe. India squandered its early successes in controlling COVID-19. Until April, the government’s COVID-19 task force had not met in months,’ The Lancet editorial revealed.

Besides, India also misjudged the complexities involved in procurement, distribution and for speedy inoculation of affordable Covid vaccines, at least, to its entire adult population. But, before delving into that area, let me highlight an interesting mismatch.

India’s vaccine shortage when Pfizer logs a record vaccine turnover during pandemic:

Two contrasting scenario surfaces – as the world is reeling under unprecedented disruptions caused by successive waves of Covid-19. Witnessing India’s unparalleled healthcare tragedy in Covid 2.0, the W.H.O director general said: “The situation in India is beyond heartbreaking.” Outlining the reason for the same a separate report commented: A ‘complete collapse’ of preventive health: How India’s 2nd COVID wave exploded.

Concomitantly, one reads news items, which bring out, ‘Pfizer eyes $26B in COVID-19 vaccine sales for the year, with $3.5B already in the bag.’ Notably, most vaccine companies received huge public funding much before Covid vaccines were rolled out. For example, ‘The New York Times’ article of July 22, 2020 came with a headline: ‘Pfizer Gets $1.95 Billion to Produce Coronavirus Vaccine by Year’s End.’

The Scientific American also reported on November 18, 2020, ‘For Billion-Dollar COVID Vaccines, Basic Government-Funded Science Laid the Groundwork.’ It added: ‘Much of the pioneering work on mRNA vaccines was done with government money, though drugmakers could walk away with big profits.’ That’s exactly, I reckon, is the reality today.

Similarly, Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine generated $1.73 billion in revenue during the first quarter, as compared to $3.5 billion of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine in the same quarter. Moderna now predicts its vaccine will generate $19.2 billion by year’s end. Interestingly, through its COVID-19 vaccine partnership with the U.S. government, Moderna also received nearly $1 billion in research aid. The Company is now joining a list of other vaccine players to take a supply order from the federal government.

By the same token, Serum Institute of India (SII) – the contract manufacturer of Covishield, developed and owned by Oxford University and AstraZeneca has also received initial advance funding from the governments, prior to its manufacturing.

Was India’s ‘Vaccine Maitri’ a pragmatic step?

Today, India is one such country facing the brunt of Covid vaccine shortage alongside arriving at an affordable price per dose of the same – a part of which is due to ‘unrealistic’ planning, as many experts believe.

For example, on January 20, the Indian government launched Vaccine Maitri – an ambitious program to export the two Indian-made shots – Covishield and Covaxin – to the world. On that exact date, India counted 14,112 fresh cases of Covid-19. Going by a report of May 01, 2021: ‘According to the government’s own submission before the Parliament, more shots were sent out of the country than administered to Indians as of mid-March.’ Many, therefore, wonder, whether this was a pragmatic decision that helped save lives of Indians during Covid pandemic.

An unprecedented development on vaccine IP waiver:

This is regarding IP waivers for Covid vaccines. In my last article, I wrote about it, stating, on October 02, 2021, India and South Africa had proposed at the WTO about an IP waiver for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines to resolve the issues of access and affordability for these products. It was also widely reported: ‘Richer members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) blocked a push by over 80 developing countries to waive patent rights in an effort to boost production of COVID-19 vaccines for poor nations.’

However, on May 05, 2021, a statement of the U.S. Trade Representative said, ‘as the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic call for extraordinary measures, in its service of ending this pandemic the US also supports the IP waiver for Covid-19 vaccines, although the US administration supports IP protections generally. As expected, Big Pharma lobby groups, including PhRMA, reportedly, have strongly criticized the move.

Let me hasten to add, there is, at least, one exception in this area. Months ago, on October 8, 2020, Moderna said, ‘it won’t enforce its vaccine patents against other companies during the pandemic.’ Without specifying any names, the Company revealed, ‘other Covid-19 vaccines in development might already be using Moderna-patented technology.

The WTO process is expected to begin now, but how long will it take?

As the Reuters report dated May 06, 2021 indicated – with the U.S. backing a proposed waiver of Covid-19 vaccine IP rights, the next stop is for the World Trade Organization to hammer out a deal – a process that could take months. “At a minimum, it’s going to be a month or two,” said a former Trump White House trade official who previously worked at the U.S. trade mission to the WTO in Geneva. The waiver, if happens, could also be significantly narrower in scope and shorter in duration than the one initially proposed by India and South Africa.

The relevance of IP waiver:

Currently, only drug companies which own patents or their authorized manufacturers like SII can produce Covid vaccines. A global decision on patent waiver may encourage the patentees to share the formula and manufacturing technology, instead of reverse engineering, as is done for off-patent small molecules and some biotech drugs. All companies with requisite resources may legally manufacture Covid vaccines, in that situation, leading to cheaper, and significantly more quantity of generic versions of Covid vaccines. This may help overcoming vaccine shortages, making the vaccines affordable, as well.

Some counter arguments and response:

As I wrote in my last article, the following three critical questions may arise in that scenario:

Will IP waiver help solve the immediate issues of vaccine shortages?
Can Covid vaccines be reverse engineered by domestic pharma industry without inventors sharing ‘Know-How’?
If yes, how long can it take?

The answer to the first question is – it may not help resolve the immediate crisis. But, for a medium to long term solution, there will be an emphatic yes, as Covid-19 fight is expected to be a long-haul one, as experts caution about subsequent waves of rapidly mutating new Coronavirus.

Moreover, Pfizer – BioNTech vaccine took less than a year from ‘mind to market,’ with support from all concerned. This is evident from Pfizer’s Press Release for the launch of Covid vaccine in the United States last year, on December 11, 2020. Thus, an efficient reverse engineering may also take that much time to respond to medium and long-term issues with Covid vaccines, especially in India.

Subsequent Covid-19 waves could be triggered by unpredictable compliance to Covid appropriate behavior of people. W.H.O has also warned: “When personal protective measures are being relaxed, when there are mass gatherings, when there are more contagious variants and the vaccination coverage is still low this can create a perfect storm in any country,”

Conclusion:

‘The pandemic is not a competition between companies and will not end without more-equal distribution of coronavirus vaccines,’ wrote Nature on March 30, 2021. It suggested: ‘It’s time to consider a patent reprieve for COVID vaccines.’

The world needs around 11 billion doses of Coronavirus vaccines to immunize 70% of the global population – assuming two doses per person. Interestingly, around 6 billion doses are meant for high- and upper-middle-income countries, against advance orders. Poorer nations, accounting for 80% of the global population, so far, have access to less than one-third of the available vaccines. ‘Unless manufacturing and supply can be distributed more evenly, researchers forecast that it will be at least another two years before a significant proportion of people in the lowest-income countries are vaccinated’, the paper concluded.

In this situation, I reckon, a temporary IP waiver would help in accelerating the end of the pandemic. It may not help immediately, but certainly in the foreseeable future, as discussed above. It may also call for an efficient and well thought out ‘Hub and Spoke’ distribution model. Simultaneously, of course, similar systems for raw and ancillary materials for vaccine production need to put in place to avoid intermittent shortages.

As reported on May 08, 2021, India registered a record 4,187 Covid death with 4.01 Lakh new cases, in 24 hours. Capturing the depth of the Indian crisis, ‘India Today’ is coming out with a cover page article in its May 17 issue, with the headline – ‘Covid 2.0 – The Failed State.’ Another article terms India as the ‘Flailing state in Covid storm.’

As I reasoned above, if this unprecedented step of IP waiver for Covid vaccines is finally taken by the WTO, it will significantly help India – along with the world – may not be immediately, but certainly in the foreseeable future. Only adverse impact that the decision could possibly make, is curbing Big Pharma’s unprecedented profit on Covid vaccines, and that too, during a deadly global pandemic.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Exploring An Exit To India’s Covid Management Maze

Posted on May 3, 2021 by Tapan Ray

‘India’s Covid-19 Crisis is Spiraling Out of Control. It Didn’t Have to Be This Way,’ was the headline of the lead article, published in The Time with the cover page ‘India in Crisis.’ All Indians also believe the same, as the current reality is shown virtually live in TV news channels daily, with experts commenting on the same.

Ironically, many in the country’s leadership still remain in a ‘denial mode’, even when the country records globally highest number, ever – over 402,110 daily new Covid-19 cases with 3,688 daily deaths, on April 30, 2021. One can also gauge how grim the situation is from the example of the US alert to its citizens in India. It says, ‘access to medical care is becoming severely limited because of a surge in Covid-19 infections and those wishing to leave the country should take advantage of available commercial transportation options.’

Notably, when most Indians, including the President of India, were taking pride in the country’s ‘Aatma-Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan,’ especially in the Covid-19 vaccine area, during the pandemic, the stark reality appeared to be quite different. Pandemic demonstrated that each country is, in fact, interdependent. One may not acknowledge it in the days of hubris. However, when a crisis, like Covid 2.0 strikes the nation hard and interestingly – not unannounced, as many experts write, the reality dawns. This is also a reality that India as a nation could not adequately prepare itself for Covid 2.0 onslaught, even over a yearlong Covid 1.0 pandemic.

Nonetheless, India now needs global help, almost for everything – in the prevailing calamity – Oxygen, drugs like, Remdesivir – and vaccines, besides many others. Quite expectedly, witnessing the Covid 2.0 tragedy in India ‘Aid (also) pours in from the world to counter India’s Covid-19 second wave.’ Alongside, along with Indian media, even foreign media reports, ‘Bodies piling up at crematoriums: Record death toll may hide extent of India’s COVID-19 crisis.’

Amid Covid crisis, most countries in the world, including the United Kingdom, the United States,Israel and even India’s neighboring country - Bhutan focused on the mass Covid vaccination drive – at a blistering pace, to create a herd immunity. In this article, I shall explore the drivers and barriers for India to achieve a similar goal, soon.

Current developments with vaccine in India:

The latest development is – after a protracted hesitation, the Government of India opened ‘Covid-19 vaccination for all above 18 years of age,’ effective May 01, 2021. However, not so good news is, this happened at a time when the country is experiencing a Covid-19 vaccine shortage even for all adults above 45 years of age. Believing that government has taken this decision without enough advance preparation, experts warn, India is likely to face extreme Covid vaccine shortage from May 1.

They express concern: ‘India is running out of vaccines just as the new wave of Covid-19 infections batters the country, complicating Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to inoculate the nation’s workforce while threatening to drag out the world’s worst healthcare crisis.’

India rejected ‘emergency use’ of imported Pfizer and other vaccines, unlike other countries:

Some decisions by Indian vaccine expert panel also delayed more vaccine availability in the country for ‘emergency use,’ sooner. For example, Reuters reported on February 05, 2021, ‘Pfizer drops India vaccine application after regulator seeks local trial.’ The Company had applied to the DCGI for a waiver of a local trial for importing its mRNA vaccine in India.

Similarly, as reported on February 25, 2021, ‘Expert panel seeks safety data for Russia’s Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine before emergency use nod,’ in India. Ironically, it was again rejected on April 01, 2021. However, facing the fierce Covid.2.0 wave Sputnik V vaccine is now being imported from Russia. Similarly, as reported on April 30, 2021, ‘Pfizer begins exporting U.S.-made COVID-19 vaccine to Mexico.’ Pfizer has already exported 10 million doses to Mexico.

In the quagmire of indecision, late decision and other non-life saving priorities are omnipresent:

Many Indian and overseas experts opined that valuable time was lost to have more vaccines in India, by now. This is because, amid a wrenching surge in infections and deaths, on April 14, 2021 – ultimately, India agreed to fast-track vaccine approvals for ‘emergency use,’ without local trial. These are now applicable to all those Covid vaccines that have already been authorized by ‘drug regulators in the US, UK, European Union and Japan or cleared by the WHO, without having to conduct a local bridging trial.

The above developments, I reckon, gave rise to two core issues in vaccinating the Indian population of above 18 years of age – at a ‘blistering pace,’ as happened or is happening in countries, like the UK or the US.

Whereas, for speedy mass vaccination wealthy governments took a quick decision to stock up on COVID-19 shots from Pfizer and Moderna Inc, because of their extremely high efficacy. More so, when safety concerns and production problems temporarily sidelined vaccines from AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson.

Two core issues for a speedy vaccination process in India:

No domain experts in the world doubt that mass vaccination is India’s Covid-19 escape route from the prevailing health care massacre. However, arising out of the above developments, successful implementation of Covid vaccination process on the ground, making it available and affordable to all, poses a giant challenge. Thus, to effectively address the two core issues, with the quality of speed that it deserves, finding answers to the following questions are critical:

How to add speed to the vaccination process?
How to avoid different pricing for the same vaccine for the Central Government, the State Governments and the Private Hospitals? This will give a choice to the population for speedy vaccination, removing many personal apprehensions involving the entire process.

Let me give an example, each of the most recent quagmire related to each one of the above issues.

All vaccination centers in Mumbai were shut for three days for shortages:

Reuters reported on April 30, 2021 carrying a headline, ‘Indian states run out of COVID-19 vaccines; nationwide inoculation delayed.’ It added, several Indian states have run out of COVID-19 vaccines a day before a planned widening of a nationwide inoculation drive. Interestingly, quoting Indian authorities it elaborated: ‘All vaccination centers in India’s financial capital Mumbai were shut for three days starting Friday due to a shortage of vaccines, as the country posted another record daily rise in coronavirus cases.’ The same saga can be witnessed in the national capital of India. ‘Don’t queue up outside Covid-19 vaccination centers tomorrow, the stock will arrive in 1-2 days,’ urged the Chief Minister of Delhi.

The Government allowed Covishield and Covaxin price increase amid pandemic:

Covishield and Covaxin were being purchased by the central government at a price of Rs. 150 per/dose. While announcing Covid vaccination eligibility to all Indians above 18 years of age – despite vaccine shortages, the government allowed the two Indian vaccine manufacturers to increase the same vaccine prices – for direct supply to the state governments and private hospitals.

The manufacturers lapped up this decision and increased the vaccine prices by several times, amid catastrophic Covid 2.0 pandemic. For example, for state governments the Covishield price was raised to Rs.400/per dose and Rs.600/per dose – for Covaxin. However, facing severe criticism from all quarters the prices were revised to Rs 300 (Covishield) and Rs.400 (Covaxin). Interestingly, still the price increases were double or even more from the initial prices of Rs.150/per dose. Interestingly, one manufacturer even boasted this so called ‘price reduction’ from their initial humongous price increases, as a ‘philanthropic gesture’. Interesting indeed!

A hidden solution within Supreme Court questions to the Center:

While hearing a Suo Moto case in connection with the ongoing Covid 2.0 calamity in the country, the Supreme Court of India also took note of the difference in Covid vaccine prices for the Centre and the state governments. It observed Covid vaccine manufacturing is publicly funded, hence are public goods – these are ultimately meant for the people of India. At the same time, the apex court asked some of the following profound questions to the central government on Covid 2.0 management in the country:

Why is the center not following the national immunization program policy in its Covid-19 vaccination drive where the Centre will buy all vaccines from the manufacturers?
How much investment has the Centre made into the vaccine companies and given advances in the last year?
What has been the financial contribution by the Union govt in research etc. in the development of vaccines?
How will the Centre ensure registration for vaccines for illiterate people and those without internet access as registration through Co-Win is mandatory in the third phase of vaccination?
Will one state get priority access over another in getting the vaccines?
How will the Centre ensure equity by private vaccine manufacturers when it is buying only 50 percent of the doses?
Has the center considered invoking Section 92 of the patents act and issue compulsory licenses so that drugs can be manufactured while the royalty is sorted?
Why are we paying so much for this vaccine for which AstraZeneca has set at a far lower price to the US citizens?

One may possibly find a hidden solution to the question of invoking Section 92 of the Indian Patent Act (IPA 2005) to address some critical Covid vaccine related issues in India.

Is invoking section of IPA 2005 a near-term solution?

As many would know, Section 92 of the Indian Patents Act is a special provision enabling the Central Government to issue Compulsory Licenses for the manufacture of patented drugs in a public health emergency. Section 100 of the IPA enables the Central Government to use patented inventions for government purposes. Curiously, the Supreme Court of India has, reportedly, also observed: “This is an exact case where we should go for compulsory licensing. This is a situation of Public Health Emergency.”

Just to recap, on October 02, 2021, India and South Africa had proposed at the WTO about an IP waiver for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines that could help resolve the urgent issues of access and affordability to these products. It has also been reported: ‘Richer members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) blocked a push by over 80 developing countries on Wednesday to waive patent rights in an effort to boost production of COVID-19 vaccines for poor nations.’

Although, U.S. Trade Representative has recently met with Pfizer and AstraZeneca to discuss this proposed IP waiver for Covid vaccines and drugs, what stops India to invoke Section 92 and 100 of its own Patent Act even during this seemingly uncontrollable Covid 2.0 pandemic?

The April 06, 2021 article of the Observer Research Foundation aptly epitomized the need of the hour. It articulated: ‘As the pandemic continues to rage, countries collectively have to find innovative ways to not just increase the production of vaccines, but also ensure their timely distribution at affordable prices.” Such an initiative may encourage more manufacturers in India to manufacture enough Covid vaccine, facilitating speedy inoculation to Indians and at the same time the government can make its price affordable for all concerned.

Conclusion:

The question, therefore, arises: Is India’s exit to the Covid 2.0 maze now visible? But, before arriving at any possible conclusion in this regard, one may try to address, at least, the following two critical questions:

Can Covid vaccines be reverse-engineered by domestic pharma industry without inventors sharing ‘Know-How’?

Can the IP waiver by the WTO or invocation of section 92 and 100 of IPA 2005 by India, legally mandate vaccine developers, like AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech or Johnson & Johnson, to share know-how with others, if they do not want to do so?

The resolution of the above issues won’t happen in a jiffy – at this stage. It may take more time. So, I reckon, will be the search for a permanent exit to India’s Covid 2.0 management maze, to avoid a similar strike by Covid 3.0, if or as and when it will come. Thus, till all adult Indians get vaccinated, each one of us must comply with Covid appropriate behavior responsibly, to save ourselves, our families, neighborhood, and above all our own nation.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Covid 2.0 Rampages India As Top Echelon Policy Makers Ignore Science

Posted on April 26, 2021 by Tapan Ray

‘India is in the endgame of COVID,’ announced the union health minister of India, just in the last month – March 08, 2021. Although, it was then clearly known to medical fraternity that today’s Covid vaccines won’t be magic bullets against rapidly mutating new Coronavirus. Interestingly, a scientific-data based MIT study, published last year – on July 01, 2020 predicted that India might record the highest ever in the world – 287,000 new Coronavirus cases per day, by February 2021. At that juncture also Covid vaccines were expected to be available in India before that predicted time frame. The MIT study warning received a wide coverage even in India - by almost all news dailies, on that very month of the last year. The national Covid management team did not seem to have taken it seriously, along with others. These include, besides the top echelon of governance – a vast majority of Indians – across the social, political, religious and economic strata.

The fallout of such callousness – both at the individual Covid-appropriate behavior level, as well as Covid governance level, have been more disastrous than what was forecasted even in the above MIT study. The ferocity and scale of the second Covid-19 wave in India did not just overwhelm the nation, but raised grave concern across the world too. On April 22, 2021, India recorded the world’s biggest ever single-day rise with 314,835 new cases of Covid-19, causing death to 2,104 people. The very next day, this number increased to 332,730 new cases with 2263 deaths.

But, the peak of the Covid second wave hasn’t come, just yet. According to a mathematical model developed by a team of scientists from the IIT Kanpur and reported by news media on April 22, 2021, the number of active covid-19 cases in India during the second wave is expected to peak in May. The daily infection count is expected to exceed 350,000 cases. In this article, I shall dwell on three specific areas – acknowledging that the current scenario is the outcome of national misjudgment, if not a humongous misgovernance to prepare India for Covid 2.0:

Current struggle of India’s fragile and long-ignored health care infrastructure.
Need to neutralize some general misgivings on Covid vaccines and associated dilemmas.
Who is equipped to save people, if no external remedial measures remain unavailable for some more time?

India’s fragile and long-ignored health infrastructure can’t take anymore:

Amid this calamity, India has run short of oxygen, hospital beds, important Covid medicines, including Remdesivir. Curiously, reports keep coming incessantly confirm and reconfirm: ‘Ever since the second wave of the pandemic started, the healthcare systems in India have been teetering on the brink, with many hospitals unable to handle the relentless inflow of patients whilst also running short of beds, oxygen cylinders and other essentials.’

Doctors and many health care workers are overwhelmed by the massive scale of the human tragedy and in tears, as they articulate: ‘Many lives could have been saved had there been enough beds, oxygen supplies, ventilators and other resources – if the healthcare system had been better prepared for the second wave.’

The Supreme Court intervened, noting the ‘grim situation’ in the country:

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court of India, reportedly, ‘Suo motu’ (on its own) took note of the grim situation in the country and the havoc caused due to shortage of Oxygen cylinders in hospitals. Consequently, on April 22, 2021, the top court said, ‘it expected the Centre to come out with a “national plan” on the supply of oxygen and essential drugs for treatment of infected patients and method and manner of vaccination against the disease.’ The Delhi High Court also observed, “We all know that this country is being run by God,” coming down heavily on the Centre over the Covid-19 management.

Some Covid vaccine related misgivings and dilemmas:

Many people are raising questions of the efficacy of two currently available Covid vaccines in India – Covishield and Covaxin, especially against our probably ‘desi’ double mutant variety of Covid-19. The trepidation increased manifold when India’s former Prime Minister – Dr. Manmohan Singh got Covid infected after taking two doses of Covaxin. Or, reports, such as: ‘Sri Lanka reports six cases of blood clots in AstraZeneca vaccine recipients, 3 dead.’ Incidentally, these vaccines were made in India. Some may not possibly know that both the issues have been deliberated by the Indian scientists, who haven’t expressed any concern, as yet. This has to be shared with all by all concerned, soon. Let me explore some of these related issues, as follows:

Re-infection after taking Covid vaccines:

Regarding re-infection rate after taking two doses of Covid vaccines, the scientists have now released data establishing that only a very small fraction of those vaccinated with either Covaxin or Covishield, have tested positive. In any case, instances of a few “breakthrough” infections do not undermine the efficacy of the vaccines, they added.

The ICMR has also clarified, “These vaccines definitely protect against disease. However, the immune response begins to develop usually two weeks after every dose and there are variations within individuals, too. Even after the first dose, if exposure to the virus happens, one can test positive.”

Efficacy of Covishield and Covaxin against double mutant strains:

Notably, both – the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) have announced last week that Covishield and Covaxin protect patients even from the ‘double mutant’, B.1.617, variety of Covid-19. Scientists believe that the “double mutant” is responsible for the sudden spike in the number of cases in Maharashtra and other parts of the country. They had earlier feared that this “double mutant” or B.1.617, may escape the immune system and thus vaccines may not offer protection from this strain of the novel coronavirus.

Reported risk of blood clotting with Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine:

No cases of blood clotting have come to light in India. However, a government panel of experts is,reportedly, investigating for any domestic cases of blood clotting, even mild ones, as a side effect of the two COVID-19 vaccines being administered in India. According to India’s leading virologist Gagandeep Kang, “blood clots reportedly caused as a result of Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine amount to a very small risk.”

As reported on April 24, 2021, the United States has also decided to immediately resume the use of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine, ending a 10-day pause to investigate its link to extremely rare but potentially deadly blood clots. These details, I reckon, need also to be shared with all people, soon, in order to neutralize any doubt on administering Covid vaccines.

Covid vaccine availability and pricing:

Recent media reports highlight, at least six states of India – Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha and Telangana – are facing Covid vaccine shortage, as Covid 2.0 overwhelms India. Most of these states have already apprised the Centre of the situation, as the Supreme Court of India also seeks the details from the center about its current status.

As on April 22, 2021, India has administered over 135 million vaccine doses, where each individual will require two doses. Whereas, as published in Bloomberg on April 23, 2021, ‘1 billion Covid-19 vaccines have been administered around the world.’ The good news is, effective May 01, 2021, everyone above the age of 18 years will be eligible to get vaccinated. The Central Government will also lift its singular control on supply and delivery of Covid-19 vaccines in a bid to tackle the massive rise of cases that have crippled the country’s health infrastructure.

That said, the key question that follows – would Covid vaccine manufacturers be able to meet this increasing demand in India, when there already exists more demand than its supply? According to Niti Aayog Covid-19: Vaccine availability will improve by July 2021. The two major vaccine manufacturers in India are also indicating broadly similar time frame.

Meanwhile, amid a deadly second wave of Covid infections, a third Coronavirus vaccine - Russia’s Sputnik V, has been approved for emergency use in India. Incidentally, Sputnik V’s approval came not before India overtook Brazil to become the country with the second-highest number of cases globally. According to its local distributor – Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, India will start receiving Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine by end May.

Be that as it may, it is still unclear whether enough Covid vaccine doses will be available right from May 1, 2021, to start inoculating all Indians above 18 years of age, across the length and breadth of the country. Besides, SSI’s decision to fix the rate of Covishield vaccine for private hospitals and state governments, has attracted sharp criticism from the Opposition, who argued that there was no logic in charging the state governments a higher price, when the Centre is getting the same vaccine at Rs 150 per dose.

This question surfaces, especially when SII Chief himself acknowledged that they are making profit even with Rs.150/per dose price as the pandemic ravages the nation. A news item of April 24, 2021 also underscores ‘Serum Institute’s Rs.600/dose for Covishield in private hospitals is its highest rate in the world.’ Nonetheless, price sensitivity to Covid vaccines during the pandemic is not specific to India.

Shareholders of Pfizer, J&J, reportedly, are also pushing for detailed COVID-19 pricing strategies of the respective companies, at their annual meetings. Curiously, at the same, yet another report highlights: ‘With the competition struggling, Pfizer’s COVID vaccine sales could hit $24B this year.’ Amazing!

India utterly overwhelmed, angry outbursts of concern beyond its shores:

Witnessing the nature of rampage caused by Covid 2.0 in India, global press blames the Indian top policy makers for utter failure to anticipate and tackle the devastating second wave. For example, The Guardian of the UK flashed a headline on April 21, 2021 – ‘The system has collapsed’: India’s descent into Covid hell.’ It further elaborated: ‘Many falsely believed that the country had defeated Covid. Now hospitals are running out of oxygen and bodies are stacking up in morgues.’ The Times, UK was harsher. It reported, ‘Modi flounders in India’s gigantic second wave.’ It further added: ‘Record levels of infection have put huge strain on the health service and highlighted the perils of complacency in the nationalist government.’

The New York Times reported on April 23, 2021: ‘India’s Health System Cracks Under the Strain as Coronavirus Cases Surge.’ The report also cited examples of ‘recent political rallies held by Mr. Modi that have drawn thousands, as well as the government’s decision to allow an enormous Hindu festival to continue despite signs that it has become a super spreader event.’

Conclusion:

Keeping aside the responsibility, or rather lack of it, of the National Covid governance team, individual Indians – like you and me – can’t in any way shy away from our own responsibility of compliance to Covid appropriate behavior, religiously. We are equally responsible, at least, for our own lives and fate. Even today, many of those who are wearing a face mask, are wearing in the chin – keeping the nose exposed – forget about double masking! Moreover, how many of us were or are eligible for Covid vaccination till date, but did not or could not take?

Curiously, Covid 2.0 is no longer striking mostly the poor urban population, living in slums or hutments, or the migrant laborer. Nor it is attacking mainly the senior citizens or people with co-morbidities. More young people, including children are getting infected in Covid 2.0. In Covid 2.0 – over 90 per cent of Covid new cases concentrate in in high rise and other buildings in major cities, like Mumbai. While urban slums account for just 10 per cent. On April 24, 2021, Bloomberg also reported, ‘India’s Urban Affluent Hit By New Virus Wave After Dodging First.’

Terming Covid 2.0 as concerning and scaring‘, Tata Sons Chairman also said, ‘India needs to get as many different Covid-19 vaccine licenses as possible. And replicate multiple factories on a war footing to ramp up production in order to meet the requirements as the country reels under the devastating second wave of the pandemic.’ It’s incredible, how a small country in the Indian subcontinent – Bhutan with limited resources, got its vaccination plan right and carried out, reportedly, the world’s fastest immunization drive.

Coming back to the last year’s above MIT study forecast for 2021 Covid situation in India. It goes without saying that this one, among several others, was based on credible data. It also brought to the fore the scientific reasons of consequences for not following the norms of Covid appropriate behavior. Looking back and coming back to real life scenario of date, one thing becomes crystal clear. When science is ignored, both at the highest echelon of national governance where the buck stops – or at the individual, social, religious or political level – it is virtually inevitable that a disaster would strike. And in most cases, it will strike hard – very hard. Much beyond what a human can withstand to survive. We have choice for survival – even in today’s frightening scenario. Let’s individually and collectively behave, as the science demands. Life and livelihood are important – for all of us.

By: Tapan J. Ray

A Rare Strategic Acrobatic Feat in Covid Time

Posted on December 21, 2020 by Tapan Ray

‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills.’ Quite a while ago, all-time global management guru – Peter Drucker used this essential acrobatic feat as an example, for the business strategists. This illustration signifies the criticality of harmonizing decisions affecting both the short and the long-term goals of an organization, for a sustainable business excellence.

In most recent times, the pharma major AstraZeneca that has virtually become one of the household names, for developing a Covid-19 vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford, has performed the above acrobatic feat – with precision. During the prevailing unprecedented health crisis, the Company has unequivocally proven that it remains on course – in achieving its dual objectives, as Drucker had prescribed in his management classic – ‘The Practice of Management.’

It happened in tandem – without getting overwhelmed by the disruptive forced of Covid pandemic, unlike most others. Immediately, the Company focused on an urgent objective of saving the humanity – by developing, manufacturing and delivering a Covid vaccine to the world, in a record time. This was possibly a relatively short-term goal. And closely followed the other – a critical strategic decision for the organization’s long-term sustainable business excellence.

I have discussed before, the Company’s first initiative – developing a Covid vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford. Hence, in this article, I shall focus on two other related areas:

Deadly impact of rare diseases in some Covid infected young patients.
Why not some large Indian companies also explore similar strategies as demonstrated by AstraZeneca – and the reasons behind the same?

Before going into those areas up front, let me start with a brief description of AstraZeneca’s intent to expand its footprint in the of area of rare diseases, besides immunology area to help treat rare types of cancer.

The acquisition:

On December 12, 2020 AstraZeneca announced that to accelerate its strategic and financial development, the company will acquire Alexion valuing $39 billion. Subject to all statutory approvals, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2021. Interestingly, Alexion’s top brand – Soliris, is the world’s one of the most expensive drugs in the world. It is prescribed to treat a rare – life-threatening blood disease paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). Incidentally, rare diseases have also some significant relevance for Covid infected patients. Let me now recapitulate, some key aspects of rare diseases.

Some key aspects of rare diseases:

Rare Diseases (RD) – also referred to as Orphan Disease (OD), are diseases affecting a small percentage of the population, and include genetic diseases, rare cancers, infectious tropical diseases and degenerative diseases. There is no universally accepted definition of a rare disease, yet. Different countries define these differently. However, the common considerations in the definitions are, primarily, disease prevalence and to a varying extent – severity and existence of alternative therapeutic options.

Impact of some rare diseases in Covid infected patients:

Since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, people with underlying diseases, such as, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney disorders, are considered to fall in the high-risk group. They are more likely to have severe disease and complications and need to be extra cautious of the infection. Importantly, it has been recently reported that some rare diseases also increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic at a younger age.

For example, as reported on December 07, 2020, recent studies indicate, rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic for younger patients. The researchers also found that women with rare autoimmune rheumatological diseases (RAIRD) had a greater increase in all-cause mortality rates during the pandemic when compared to men with RAIRD. However, there seems to be an India specific issue also in this situation, as well.

India specific issue for Covid infected patients with some rare diseases:

Some India specific issues on RD, could have a significant adverse impact on Covid infected patients in the country. One such critical issues is the ‘Baseline Knowledge of Rare Diseases in India.’ This fact was well captured in an important survey that was published with the same name, as an original article, in the ‘International Journal of Rare Diseases & Disorders,’ on November 06, 2019.

The study noted, among others:

Although, rare diseases have recently received worldwide attention, the developing countries are seriously behind in regard to awareness, drug development, diagnosis, and social services, in this area. India, which has one-third of the world’s rare disease population, has no accurate assessment of the problem.

The drugs for ‘Rare Diseases (RD), also called Orphan Drugs (OD)’, often cost exorbitant with difficulties in diagnosis and treatments.

Indian policymakers want to find out the number of RD and the extent of the population suffering from them and help provide treatment for them, which is a challenging task with 1.45% GDP health care budget for 1.3 billion people.

The health care professionals appear to have some awareness as compared with non-healthcare professionals, but even among health care professionals, only one third had a rudimentary understanding of RD and OD, whereas three-fourths have virtually no knowledge of RD.

Forty-three percent of health professionals had not seen rare disease patients, and a large percent of practicing physicians had not seen even one rare disease patient in their entire professional practice.

Thus, it is clear from this survey that the most important issues are awareness and diagnosis, as many rare diseases are not diagnosed or possibly misdiagnosed. Besides, the survey also observed, since 1983, many global companies started developing orphan drugs after the Orphan Drug Act implementation. There is none at this time in India, although in 2017, the Drugs & Cosmetic Act. 1945 has been amended to include “rare diseases and orphan drugs”.

The National Policy on Rare Diseases flagged some of these facts:

The ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020,’ for India, released by the Union Ministry of Health on February 07, 2020, acknowledged many of these important facts. It also said, ‘Considering the limited data available on rare diseases, and in the light of competing health priorities, the focus of the draft policy is on prevention of rare diseases as a priority as identified by experts.’

Interestingly, the first of such policy was prepared by India in 2017 and a committee was appointed to review it in 2028. However, recently published the National Policy on Rare diseases, has also noted one more important point. It noted: ‘Paradoxically, though rare diseases are of low prevalence and individually rare, collectively they affect a considerable proportion of the population in any country, which according to generally accepted international research is – between 6% and 8%.’ Currently, India, reportedly, doesn’t have any registry of rare disease, which has now been entrusted to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in the National policy.

Common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis:

The above policy has also noted, rare diseases are characterized by a wide diversity of signs and symptoms that not only, reportedly, vary from disease to disease, but also from patient-to-patient suffering from the same disease. Importantly, relatively common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis.

During Covid treatment, similar circumstances could lead to a serious life-threatening situation. The 2020 RD Policy also reiterates: “Early diagnosis of rare diseases is a challenge owing to multiple factors that include lack of awareness among primary care physicians, lack of adequate screening and diagnostic facilities etc.” That said, yet another key question arises – will developing and marketing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

Will developing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

It is worth noting that the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020, aims more at lowering the incidence and prevalence of rare diseases based on an integrated and comprehensive prevention strategy, rather than ensuring patient access to affordable treatments. Nonetheless, it also says, within the constraints on resources and competing health care priorities, India will try to enable access to affordable health care to patients of rare diseases which are amenable to one-time treatment. In general, the policy suggests, ‘voluntary crowdfunding for treatment’ of rare diseases.

With this being the prevailing situation in India, even during Covid pandemic, an interesting article – ‘How Orphan Drugs Became a Highly Profitable Industry,’ published in The Scientist, noted some important facts in this area. It highlighted: ‘Government incentives, advances in technology, and an army of patient advocates have spun a successful market—but abuses of the system and exorbitant prices could cause a backlash.’

It also articulated, despite higher costs and less-certain returns, investments in drug development on the rare diseases side appear to ‘be bucking the trend.’ The result of the global focus on RD nowadays is: ‘Firms with marketing authorization for orphan products, are now more profitable than those without.’

This also partly explains the financial rationale behind AstraZeneca’s recent acquisition of Alexion Pharmaceuticals, valuing $39 billion.

Conclusion:

As of December 20, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,031,659 of new Coronavirus cases with 145,513 deaths. The country has already crossed 10 million in Covid cases as the vaccine approval remains pending. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection continues to loom large in many states. Meanwhile, many studies indicate that comorbidity should now include rare diseases, as well, especially to prevent deaths in younger patients. From this perspective effective diagnosis and treatment of RD are also coming under spotlights. Curiously, the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020 focuses more on awareness and prevention of RD rather than access to affordable treatment, particularly in Covid infected patients to save precious younger lives. As I wrote previously and still believe, the ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases’ becomes more meaningful with ‘Orphan Drugs Act.’

Vaccines to prevent Covid infections are also expected to get emergency approval in India, shortly. At lease, some of these being available at affordable prices, including AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, according to reports. As recent reports indicate the same company, is also entering into RD therapy areas, through a key acquisition, yet another hope looms large. A hope for availability of relevant RD drugs at an affordable price for Covid infected patients, despite other apprehension, as I wrote before.

That apart, purely from the business management perspective, as well, this rare strategic acrobatic feat of AstraZeneca - ‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills,’ during the Covid crisis, I reckon, is exemplary for the practicing managers.

By: Tapan J. Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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