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Impact of Covid Vaccines’ Possible IP Waiver In India

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Just when Covid 2.0 rages in India with almost 4,000 people died in just 24 hours, scientists warn that Covid 3.0, and further waves are now ‘inevitable, reported Reuters on May 06, 2021. With hospitals running short of beds and oxygen during the onslaught of Covid 2.0, the World Health Organization (WHO) highlighted, ‘India accounted for nearly half the coronavirus cases reported worldwide last week, and a quarter of the deaths.’

The report revealed some more heartrending details: ‘Many people have died in ambulances and car parks waiting for a bed or oxygen, while morgues and crematoriums struggle to deal with a seemingly unstoppable flow of bodies.’

No visible overall improvements with ‘here and now decisions’ or maybe the lack of it, of the National Covid Management Team, is perceptible, just yet. It’s also a matter of further concern that unlike what happened during Covid 1.0, the second wave of the virus, reportedly, ‘started hitting even young adults hard – leaving countless children to fend for themselves.’

Ironically, alongside a rapid surge in infections, India witnesses a sharp decline in Covid vaccination numbers though more people are eligible. The key reasons being supply chain related problems, despite India being one of the largest vaccine producers, globally. In my last article  published in this blog, I broached on finding a possible exit to this covid 2.0 maze in India. However, this article will explore some unprecedented developments of the last week in this area. To give a perspective, let me start by exploring whether the people responsible for Covid Governance in India, grossly misjudged the situation, claiming the ‘endgame’ of Covid-19, too soon.

‘India announced its triumph over Covid-19 early’:

A third Covid-19 wave is inevitable, but the timing could not be predicted, said India’s principal scientific advisor on May 05, 2021. Intriguingly, less than two months back, the national Government announced its triumph over Covid-19. On March 08, 2021, as Covid vaccination process for senior citizens and people above 45 years with comorbidities had just commenced, the Union Health Minister claimed, ‘India is in the endgame of the novel coronavirus pandemic.’ Just about a couple of months later, it sounded akin to a note of hubris for many, which prevailed, by and large, across the nation.

Acknowledging the same, on May 04, 2021, even Uday Kotak, MD&CEO Kotak Mahindra Bank and President CII commented, ‘India announced triumph over Covid-19 early’. He further urged: “We have to do whatever it takes to save lives first, even as we battle for livelihoods. And if our healthcare capacity is currently going through its challenges, we must be ready to curtail non-essential economic activities.” The latest editorial from ‘The Lancet’ also highlighted the same.

India’s Covid 2.0 – “A self-inflicted national catastrophe” – The Lancet 

Yes. The editorial of the latest – May 08, 2021 issue of The Lancet, also reiterated so. It emphasized, ignoring warnings about the risks of super spreader events, the government allowed congregations of millions of people from across India in religious festivals, along with huge political rallies with utter disregard to Covid appropriate behavior. ‘The message that COVID-19 was essentially over also slowed the start of India’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which has vaccinated less than 2% of the population.’ India’s national vaccination plan soon fell apart with the government abruptly expanded vaccination to all 18 years, draining supplies, ‘and creating mass confusion and a market for vaccine doses in which states and hospital systems competed.’

The IHME estimates a staggering 1 million deaths from COVID-19 in India by Aug 01, 2021. ‘If that outcome were to happen, Modi’s Government would be responsible for presiding over a self-inflicted national catastrophe. India squandered its early successes in controlling COVID-19. Until April, the government’s COVID-19 task force had not met in months,’ The Lancet editorial revealed.

Besides, India also misjudged the complexities involved in procurement, distribution and for speedy inoculation of affordable Covid vaccines, at least, to its entire adult population. But, before delving into that area, let me highlight an interesting mismatch.

India’s vaccine shortage when Pfizer logs a record vaccine turnover during pandemic:

Two contrasting scenario surfaces – as the world is reeling under unprecedented disruptions caused by successive waves of Covid-19. Witnessing India’s unparalleled healthcare tragedy in Covid 2.0, the W.H.O director general said: “The situation in India is beyond heartbreaking.” Outlining the reason for the same a separate report commented: A ‘complete collapse’ of preventive health: How India’s 2nd COVID wave exploded.

Concomitantly, one reads news items, which bring out, ‘Pfizer eyes $26B in COVID-19 vaccine sales for the year, with $3.5B already in the bag.’ Notably, most vaccine companies received huge public funding much before Covid vaccines were rolled out. For example, ‘The New York Times’ article of July 22, 2020 came with a headline: ‘Pfizer Gets $1.95 Billion to Produce Coronavirus Vaccine by Year’s End.’

The Scientific American also reported on November 18, 2020, ‘For Billion-Dollar COVID Vaccines, Basic Government-Funded Science Laid the Groundwork.’ It added: ‘Much of the pioneering work on mRNA vaccines was done with government money, though drugmakers could walk away with big profits.’ That’s exactly, I reckon, is the reality today.

Similarly, Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine generated $1.73 billion in revenue during the first quarter, as compared to $3.5 billion of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine in the same quarter. Moderna now predicts its vaccine will generate $19.2 billion by year’s end. Interestingly, through its COVID-19 vaccine partnership with the U.S. government, Moderna also received nearly $1 billion in research aid. The Company is now joining a list of other vaccine players to take a supply order from the federal government.

By the same token, Serum Institute of India (SII) – the contract manufacturer of Covishield, developed and owned by Oxford University and AstraZeneca has also received initial advance funding from the governments, prior to its manufacturing.

Was India’s ‘Vaccine Maitri’ a pragmatic step?

Today, India is one such country facing the brunt of Covid vaccine shortage alongside arriving at an affordable price per dose of the same – a part of which is due to ‘unrealistic’ planning, as many experts believe.

For example, on January 20, the Indian government launched Vaccine Maitri – an ambitious program to export the two Indian-made shots – Covishield and Covaxin – to the world. On that exact date, India counted 14,112 fresh cases of Covid-19. Going by a report of May 01, 2021: ‘According to the government’s own submission before the Parliament, more shots were sent out of the country than administered to Indians as of mid-March.’ Many, therefore, wonder, whether this was a pragmatic decision that helped save lives of Indians during Covid pandemic.

An unprecedented development on vaccine IP waiver:

This is regarding IP waivers for Covid vaccines. In my last article, I wrote about it, stating, on October 02, 2021, India and South Africa had proposed at the WTO about an IP waiver for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines to resolve the issues of access and affordability for these products. It was also widely reported: ‘Richer members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) blocked a push by over 80 developing countries to waive patent rights in an effort to boost production of COVID-19 vaccines for poor nations.’

However, on May 05, 2021, a statement of the U.S. Trade Representative said, ‘as the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic call for extraordinary measures, in its service of ending this pandemic the US also supports the IP waiver for Covid-19 vaccines, although the US administration supports IP protections generally. As expected, Big Pharma lobby groups, including PhRMA, reportedly, have strongly criticized the move.

Let me hasten to add, there is, at least, one exception in this area. Months ago, on October 8, 2020, Moderna said, ‘it won’t enforce its vaccine patents against other companies during the pandemic.’ Without specifying any names, the Company revealed, ‘other Covid-19 vaccines in development might already be using Moderna-patented technology.

The WTO process is expected to begin now, but how long will it take?

As the Reuters report dated May 06, 2021 indicated – with the U.S. backing a proposed waiver of Covid-19 vaccine IP rights, the next stop is for the World Trade Organization to hammer out a deal – a process that could take months. “At a minimum, it’s going to be a month or two,” said a former Trump White House trade official who previously worked at the U.S. trade mission to the WTO in Geneva. The waiver, if happens, could also be significantly narrower in scope and shorter in duration than the one initially proposed by India and South Africa.

The relevance of IP waiver:

Currently, only drug companies which own patents or their authorized manufacturers like SII can produce Covid vaccines. A global decision on patent waiver may encourage the patentees to share the formula and manufacturing technology, instead of reverse engineering, as is done for off-patent small molecules and some biotech drugs.  All companies with requisite resources may legally manufacture Covid vaccines, in that situation, leading to cheaper, and significantly more quantity of generic versions of Covid vaccines. This may help overcoming vaccine shortages, making the vaccines affordable, as well.

Some counter arguments and response:

As I wrote in my last article, the following three critical questions may arise in that scenario:

  • Will IP waiver help solve the immediate issues of vaccine shortages?
  • Can Covid vaccines be reverse engineered by domestic pharma industry without inventors sharing ‘Know-How’?
  • If yes, how long can it take?

The answer to the first question is – it may not help resolve the immediate crisis. But, for a medium to long term solution, there will be an emphatic yes, as Covid-19 fight is expected to be a long-haul one, as experts caution about subsequent waves of rapidly mutating new Coronavirus.

Moreover, Pfizer – BioNTech vaccine took less than a year from ‘mind to market,’ with support from all concerned. This is evident from Pfizer’s Press Release for the launch of Covid vaccine in the United States last year, on December 11, 2020. Thus, an efficient reverse engineering may also take that much time to respond to medium and long-term issues with Covid vaccines, especially in India.

Subsequent Covid-19 waves could be triggered by unpredictable compliance to Covid appropriate behavior of people. W.H.O has also warned: “When personal protective measures are being relaxed, when there are mass gatherings, when there are more contagious variants and the vaccination coverage is still low this can create a perfect storm in any country,”

Conclusion:

‘The pandemic is not a competition between companies and will not end without more-equal distribution of coronavirus vaccines,’ wrote Nature on March 30, 2021. It suggested: ‘It’s time to consider a patent reprieve for COVID vaccines.’

The world needs around 11 billion doses of Coronavirus vaccines to immunize 70% of the global population – assuming two doses per person. Interestingly, around 6 billion doses are meant for high- and upper-middle-income countries, against advance orders. Poorer nations, accounting for 80% of the global population, so far, have access to less than one-third of the available vaccines. ‘Unless manufacturing and supply can be distributed more evenly, researchers forecast that it will be at least another two years before a significant proportion of people in the lowest-income countries are vaccinated’, the paper concluded.

In this situation, I reckon, a temporary IP waiver would help in accelerating the end of the pandemic. It may not help immediately, but certainly in the foreseeable future, as discussed above. It may also call for an efficient and well thought out ‘Hub and Spoke’ distribution model. Simultaneously, of course, similar systems for raw and ancillary materials for vaccine production need to put in place to avoid intermittent shortages. 

As reported on May 08, 2021, India registered a record 4,187 Covid death with 4.01 Lakh new cases, in 24 hours. Capturing the depth of the Indian crisis, ‘India Today’ is coming out with a cover page article in its May 17 issue, with the headline – ‘Covid 2.0 – The Failed State.’ Another article terms India as the ‘Flailing state in Covid storm.’

As I reasoned above, if this unprecedented step of IP waiver for Covid vaccines is finally taken by the WTO, it will significantly help India – along with the world – may not be immediately, but certainly in the foreseeable future. Only adverse impact that the decision could possibly make, is curbing Big Pharma’s unprecedented profit on Covid vaccines, and that too, during a deadly global pandemic.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Focus On Core Competencies – Regardless of Generic Or Innovative Drug Business

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On February 11, 2021, by two different Press Releases, two global pharma majors – GSK and Novartis simultaneously made interesting announcements. Both were related to three generic cephalosporin antibiotics.

GSK revealed, ‘it has reached an agreement with Sandoz – a division of Novartis, to sell its Cephalosporin antibiotics business. Sandoz will pay GSK USD 350 million at closing, plus additional milestone payments up to USD 150 million, subject to the terms of the transaction.’

While articulating the purpose of hiving of its generic cephalosporin brands, the company reasoned: GSK is now dividing itself into two companies – one with core competencies focused on OTC products, and the other – prescription drugs and vaccines. The company emphasized: ‘The transaction aligns with GSK’s strategy to prioritize and simplify its portfolio and invest in the company’s innovative R&D pipeline and new product launches.’ Other brands in GSK’s antibiotics portfolio, are not impacted by this divestment. In other words, this would possibly mean that the generic drug business doesn’t fall within the core competencies of GSK, any longer.

Whereas, Novartis disclosed, the company’s Sandoz division, ‘has signed an agreement to acquire GSK’s cephalosporin antibiotics business, reinforcing its leading global position in antibiotics.’ Its noteworthy that Sandoz’s core competencies lie in the generic drug business.

While explaining the purpose of this acquisition, Novartis explained, cephalosporins being the largest antibiotic segment by global sales, acquiring these 3 leading brands - Zinnat, Zinacef and Fortum,“will further position Sandoz as a global leader in antibiotics – truly essential medicines that are the backbone of modern healthcare systems.”

The above transactions bring to the fore the criticality of focusing on core competencies for business excellence, regardless of innovative drug business and in multiple situations, such as:

  • Bringing organizational focus back on core competencies when these tend to get diluted.
  • Increasing the focus on core competencies as opportunities arise.

In this article, I shall revisit this critical management concept in the current perspective.

A brief recap:

The concept of core competencies of a business organization was introduced by two global pioneers in business management – C.K. Prahalad and Gary Hamel with the article – ‘The Core Competence of the Corporation.’ This was published in the May-June 1990 edition of the Harvard Business Review.

The relevance of focusing on ‘core competencies’:

The quality and quantum of commercial dividend in consistently focusing on ‘core competencies’ in any space, spanning across individual professionals to business organizations, have been profound. This calls for defining these in detail and collectively, at the top rungs of organizational leadership. Then, cultivate, and leverage the core competencies to differentiate an organization from its competition, creating a company’s long-term competitive and sustainable advantage in the marketplace – for business excellence.

What constitutes core competencies to gain strategic strength?

Core competencies – whether for individuals or for businesses, comprise primarily of resources, such as, special skills, capabilities and rewarding experience in those activities as strategic advantages of a business. Garnering financial resources would usually follow, thereafter. Thus, core competencies are always considered as a strategic strength, everywhere. That said, core competencies require continuous monitoring to always be in-sync with changing market dynamics. Otherwise, the strategies are likely to fail.

Broad examples – from pharma perspective:

Broadly speaking, discovering, developing and successfully marketing new drugs, identifying repurposed drugs for new clinical trials, and churning out novel vaccines quickly, may be considered as core competencies for innovative drug makers. They have demonstrated this skill even during Covid-19 pandemic. Similarly, immaculate skills in reverse engineering of existing drug molecules and high efficiency in process research to gain price-competitiveness, may be construed as core competencies of generic drug companies.

Examples of shifting focus on core competencies:

Although, it is desirable that pharma players stick on core competencies for sustainable long-term performance excellence, regardless of being in primarily innovative or generic drug business, we have witnessed this focus shifting on several occasions for both. However, expected success did not generally follow those companies with such tweaking in the strategic business models.

Nevertheless, some drug companies did get tempted to deviate from their core competencies. For example, innovative drug players tried to expand into low-risk generic medicines, which, in the long run, did not deliver expected results for many companies. However, this deviation wasn’t without any compelling reasons.

There were some valid reasons, though:

As is much known, traditionally, global R&D companies prefer to focus only on the business of innovative prescription medicines. Low margin generic business wasn’t their cup of tea. Subsequently, this trend shifted. Especially in those cases, where the pipeline of high potential new drug molecules did not meet the concerned company’s expectations. To stick to the knitting, some companies with deep pockets, explored another model of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of innovative patented products and companies with rich new drug pipelines. Interestingly, in this M&A business model, low risk, low cost and high-volume turnover of generic business also started attracting several R&D based companies, alongside.

Which is why, an increasing number of R&D based companies started planning to expand their business in less risky generic drug business. This appeared to be a quick fix to tide over the crisis, as the generic drug business model won’t require going through lengthy R&D processes. Besides, compliance with ever increasing stringent regulatory approval protocols, particularly in the developed markets of the world.

Examples of why focus on core competencies matter, even in new normal: 

There are several examples of large companies to illustrate this point – both from the old and the new normal. Just to give a flavor of the relevance of focusing on core competencies of organizations, I shall draw upon three interesting examples. Each of these, highlight different organizational visions and perspectives at different times, particularly the relevance of focus on core-competencies for a corporation. These are as follows:

  • The first one is Daiichi Sankyo of Japan’s acquisition of India’s generic drug major of that time – Ranbaxy, in June 2008. The parent company claims: “We provide innovative products and services in more than 20 countries around the world. With more than 100 years of scientific expertise, our company draws upon a rich legacy of innovation and a robust pipeline of promising new medicines to help patients.” It is much known today, what happened to this acquisition, thereafter, for various reasons, including faulty pre-acquisition due diligence. However, later on, the domestic pharma leader – Sun Pharma, acquired Ranbaxy. Nonetheless, at least from Daiichi Sankyo’s narrative, its areas of core competencies, appear closer to any R&D-based drug company.
  • The second example is US-based Abbott Laboratories acquisition of domestic formulations business of Primal Heath care in India in May 2010. Like Daiichi Sankyo, this acquisition was also a part of Abbott’s strategy to enter into ‘generic drug business’ -dominated emerging markets. Abbott, at that time, apparently decided to expand its strategic focus beyond its core competencies in business, primarily of patented products. However, by the end of 2012, the company separated into two leading healthcare companies. Abbott became a diversified medical products company. The other one – a totally separate company was formed, with the name – AbbVie, as a new researched-based global biopharmaceutical organization. AbbVie now operates in India, as well – with erstwhile Abbott’s innovative brands. In this case, by an innovative restructuring of the parent organization, Abbott brought back its sharp focus on core competencies of both the companies with both doing well in India.
  • The third example is a recent move of reverting to the original focus of core competencies, when moving beyond these did not yield results. In that sense, this example is different from the second one. On November 16, 2020, Pfizer also announced the creation of ‘the new Pfizer’, as it reverted to its original core competencies of “developing breakthrough treatments and delivering innovative, life-changing medicines to patients around the world.” On that day, Pfizer completed transaction to spin off its Upjohn generic drug business and combined it with Mylan to create a new entity – Viatris Inc. Earlier, the company had sold its veterinary business, a baby formula unit and its consumer products division as part of a deal with GSK – for similar reasons. Earlier, the company’s moving beyond its core competencies to pluck low hanging fruits of generic drug business, did not yield dividend, as Pfizer’s profit in the generic drug sector, reportedly, had gone South.

Conclusion:

According to Pharma Intelligence, several large players, such as, Novartis, Sanofi, AstraZeneca are now focusing on core competencies, as they start recovering from their unsettling patent cliff and other headwinds. Meanwhile, one may expect to witness more of Spin-offs, Carving-out, Splitting-off or further strengthening of core-competencies of organizations – for a sustainable long-term business excellence in the years ahead.

Spin-off and acquisition of Cephalosporin generic business by GSK and Sandoz Division of Novartis, respectively, is a part of the same ball game. Thus, maintaining or reverting focus on core competencies – regardless of generic or innovative drug business, I reckon, are the new imperatives of commercial success, even in the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray      

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Create Greater Patient–Value To Excel With Repurposed Covid Brands

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Regular introduction of new molecules, line extensions or a Novel Drug delivery System (NDDS) has remained the life blood for pharma to rejuvenate a company’s product portfolio for driving organizational growth. But, Covid’s unprecedented and devastating assault on human lives and livelihoods, has pushed many of these initiatives off track. Covid infection was declared pandemic by the World health organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, compelling the industry to primarily focus on finding solutions for survival, especially in the product development areas.

As the fight against time, the need for survival became so intense, there was no time for pharma companies going back to primary research, to discover new effective Covid specific drug molecules. Vaccines – at the initial stage of the pandemic, were considered by experts could be the only ‘magic bullet’, to get the humanity back again on its feet, after a fierce knockout blow by the virus. As on date, although vaccines seem to be nearer the finishing line of creating adequate initial immunity against Covid, still there are no scientifically proven drugs to predictably cure this infection.

Meanwhile, the focus of all concerned is on the existing drugs, to examine their effectiveness against Covid-19. Accordingly, right from hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone to a number of already existing antiviral agents were repurposed for Covid treatment, under emergency approval by country regulators, pending detailed clinical trials.

For various critical reasons, experts now feel that the use various NDDS technologies in repurposing existing drugs, would create greater value for patients in Covid treatment. At the same time, this will help pharma companies to create a cutting-edge differentiator for their repurposed brands – being more patient centric. In this article, I shall dwell in this area, starting with the current status and issues with repurposed Covid drugs, as of date.

Current status and issues with repurposed Covid drugs:

According to recent reports, such as one titled ‘Formulation and delivery strategies for COVId-19 drugs,’ published by the AIchE in June 2020, more than 40 different drugs are currently being explored for efficacy against COVID-19. Unfortunately, side effects of many of these repurposed drugs limit their use in most severe cases, besides preventing their use as prophylactics.

A large proportion of repurposed Covid drugs are small-molecule medications, antivirals, and immune-modulating antibodies. These are already approved for other indications (like hydroxychloroquine, ribavirin, favipiravir), or under clinical trials, but not yet approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA (like, remdesivir, galidesivir, leronlimab).

If proven effective, these drugs would offer several advantages from a rapid- response perspective, such as the availability of safety data. In addition, several of these drugs offer broad-spectrum activity that makes it more likely they will remain functional even if the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates. However, there are also exists some critical issues with repurposed Covid drugs.

Some critical issues with repurposed Covid drugs:

Let me cite below two examples, just to drive home the point of some critical medical issues, now existing with these repurposed Covid drugs:

  • Hydroxychloroquine – the malaria drug, when used as directed, commonly produces nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, besides muscle weakness. Importantly, at higher concentrations – only two to three times the daily dose, it can cause potentially fatal acute cardiovascular toxicity. Thus, the possibility of severe side effects makes the drug unattractive as a preventive measure. Drug formulation and delivery strategies, such as controlled release and targeted delivery could expand the use of such existing drugs, the report recommends.
  • The HIV drug combination lopinavir and ritonavir, which is under evaluation as a COVID-19 treatment, has side effects that include diarrhea, nausea, and liver damage. With a half-life of about 4–6 hours, the systemic concentrations can vary by a factor of eight between peak and trough. Developing a controlled-release formulation that maintains the minimum effective drug concentration, could mitigate side effects by reducing the steady-state drug concentration by as much as eightfold and reducing the burden on the liver by 81%, the above study, published by the AIchE in June 2020, highlighted.

At this point, for greater clarity, let me recapitulate what NDDS really means.

NDDS – clinical and marketing relevance:

Novel Drug Delivers Systems or NDDS generally ‘refers to the approaches, formulations, technologies, and systems for transporting a pharmaceutical compound in the body as needed to safely achieve its desired therapeutic effects.’

This process was lucidly explained in a contemporary article, which also inferred that the method by which a drug is delivered can have a significant effect on its efficacy and safety profile.

Yet another paper underscored, ‘if therapeutic agents can be made more efficacious and safer, using an improved drug delivery system, could achieve both –lucrative marketing opportunities for pharmaceutical companies, alongside advancement in the treatment of diseases of mankind.’ Moreover, NDDS can also help maintain the drug concentration in the therapeutic range for a longer period of time and deliver the content to the site of action if required.

Leaving aside the technical details behind these mechanisms let me underscore - that NDDS will be a boon for the repurposing of drugs, was also discussed in detail in an article titled, ‘Role of Novel Drug Delivery Systems in Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19): Time to Act Now,’ published on September 09, 2020.

Some broad categories of NDDS and new initiatives:

For this purpose, some of the broad categories of NDDS may include the following:

  • Sustained- or controlled drug delivery systems provide drug action at a pre-determined rate.
  • Localized drug delivery devices for drug release in the vicinity of the target.
  • Rate – pre-programed drug delivery systems.
  • Targeted drug delivery provides drug action by using carries, which recognize their receptor at the target.

It goes without saying that NDDS mechanism may be used both for new molecules that may eventually be developed, and also for the existing repurposed drugs for Covid treatment.

Some encouraging initiatives of NDDS for Covid drugs:

The encouraging news is pharma initiatives in this regard has already commenced. For example, unprecedented interest in inhaled delivery of antiviral drugs has led to Aerogen’s involvement in multiple COVID-19 drug development initiatives, with more than 15 leading pharmaceutical companies - worldwide.

Several of these collaborations are already in clinical trials. Others are also on track to enter studies on moderately and severely ill COVID-19 patients, the Press Information of Aerogen dated October 22, 2020 highlighted. Let me cite below two more examples in this area, to explain the intensity of work that has commenced in the NDDS space for repurposed Covid drugs.

Covis Pharma’s inhaled glucocorticoid, Alvesco (ciclesonide) has entered Phase III safety and efficacy trial in 400 non-hospitalized patients  -12 years of age and older with symptomatic COVID-19. The product is delivered twice daily via a pressurized metered dose inhaler (pMDI).

Senzer Pharmaceuticals - a UK based company, is also in the process of formulating two specific medicines with antiviral properties, to allow them to be inhaled directly into the respiratory tract. The primary aim is to reduce the number of COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care treatment. Senzer is also using a pMDI for targeted drug delivery of actives through inhalation, as it offers potential advantages over oral intake. These include, ease of administration, assisting early treatment, allowing a lower dose by reducing unwanted side effects and supporting the safety profile of the products.

Experts consider preparations of inhalable particles for local delivery is a simpler approach. This is because the lungs comprise only about 2% of the total body weight, targeted delivery could reduce the amount of drug required by a factor of 50 or more, as compared to oral administration.

Be that as it may, the primary purpose of all such initiatives is to ensure more effective and safer drug delivery to Covid patients. It is now up to the pharma marketing leadership to ascertain how to leverage such NDDS opportunities to deliver extra patient-value, simultaneously creating a cutting edge for marketing these repurposed brands.

Impact of Covid on the NDDS market segments:

The May 11, 2020 report titled, ‘Drug Delivery Systems Market Forecast, Trend Analysis & Competition Tracking – Global Market Insights 2020 to 2025,’ presents some interesting details in this area. It forecasts, the global drug delivery systems market shall register an upswing, expanding at a strong CAGR of 7.0% during the forecast period (2020-2025).

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is expected to further heighten prospects of NDDS, with the number of infections still increasing every day. Consequently, many leading pharma companies have accelerated production of essential drug delivery systems, as stated above. According to the above report, the key growth drivers of the NDDS market include:

  • Targeted drug delivery - being most dominant, is expected to capture nearly half of the global NDDS market, expanding at a healthy CAGR of 6.8% across the above forecast period.
  • Polymeric drug delivery segment is anticipated to be the second-most lucrative area, expanding at a CAGR of 7.3% across the forecast period. The popularity of this delivery type is attributed to its efficiency in localized drug delivery in large amounts, alongside lowering drug toxicity rate. The polymeric drug delivery segment is expected to capture more than 1/3rd of the global drug delivery systems market during the forecast period.
  • Application of nanotechnology is another key growth determinant for the segment. Insertion of nanoparticles help penetrate the targeted tissue in a much better manner. These particles are easily absorbed by cells, facilitating efficient drug delivery.
  • Microneedle drug delivery helps deliver vaccines or other drugs across various barriers.

Conclusion:

The Covid clock keeps ticking. As on November 22, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,095,908 of Coronavirus cases with 133,263 deaths. The average number of daily new cases appeared, after the festive season, have started climbing up again. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large.

In this regard, many experts initially thought that Covid vaccines will be magic bullets to win the war against the new Coronavirus. But in the most recent times, this situation has changed, and it is no longer so – not even Pfizer vaccine. Indian media also deliberated the same on November 05, 2020.

Under this backdrop, Arthur L. Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, who wrote a 2017 book on vaccine ethics and policy have also made a profound comment. He said recently: “We’re going to have to continue our behavioral efforts - the masking and distancing and the quarantining and the testing and so on — in parallel with vaccination because it would be very, very surprising if we got a very highly effective vaccine first one out of the box.”

Currently, the world doesn’t have any clinically proven new Covid treatment drugs, either. What we have now is a number of repurposed Covid drugs, many of these are in advanced stage of clinical trials. As and when these are approved by the country’s regulators, pharma marketers will have a task cut to excel with those – among many ‘me-too’ types. In this scenario, there will be a critical need to create greater patient-value with a company’s own repurposed brand, where right application of NDDS technology could play a game changing role. The time to keep pondering is over. Time to decide is – now.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Create Purpose-Driven-Brands To Win Marketing Warfare In The New Reality

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As we navigate through the Covid days, the hope of somehow getting back to the pre-pandemic normal still lingers – notwithstanding a host of uncertainties in its way. The longing is driven by the hype of availability of scientifically proven, safe and effective drugs and vaccines – unrealistically soon, despite top experts still keeping their fingers crossed. Some are even more forthright in their expression, as reflected in a September 30, 2020 report. It flashed a headline - “There is no getting ‘back to normal. The sooner we accept that, the better.”

Alongside, COVID-19 crisis has also triggered some disruptive changes in the business processes around the world. Amid this global health crisis, interestingly, several global pharma CEOs are sensing a number of game-changing opportunities – having business implications, even much beyond the pandemic.

One such example, as Bloomberg reported on September 29, 2020, the CEO of GlaxoSmithKline Plc feels: The Covid Pandemic is ‘a Shot at Redemption in Pharma Industry.’ Elaborating the point, she said: ‘the sector’s push to find vaccines and drugs to end the crisis, if successful, could change the perception of pharmaceutical companies in the future.’ Coincidentally, the researchers from The Harris Poll found:

  • As of May, 40 percent of the American public said pharma’s reputation had improved since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak
  • And 81percent recalled seeing or hearing something about the industry during that time.
  • This is a continuation of the former trend that The Harris Poll first noted on March 2020.

There shouldn’t much doubt, either, that similar general impression on the pharma industry, with a varying degree, may now be felt in most countries, across the globe.

Curiously, flowing from this ‘redemption of pharma reputation’ angle – with new drugs and vaccines, the scope for leveraging another opportunity is also surfacing. This is from pharma ‘branding’ perspective and pertains to creating ‘purpose-driven brands’ for success in the new reality – during the pandemic and much beyond. In this article, I shall focus on the second area, and would start with its relevance to increasingly more informed health care consumers of date.

‘Purpose driven brands’ – attained greater relevance in Covid time:

The concept of creating ‘purpose driven brands,’ is profound – it goes much beyond product features, benefits and intrinsic values. It is motivated by – why the brands exist not just for providing a solution to manage or cure a disease, but also to meet a crucial need in society.

Studies have unfolded, with better stakeholder connection – and greater share of their mind, ‘purpose driven brands’ help improve brand loyalty, resulting into increased revenue and profit. We will see below, why in Covid time, this trend has started gathering wind on its sail, and deserves to find its place at the very core of any pharma branding strategy.

The consulting arm of The Beautiful Truth, also echoed the same sentiment in the article – ‘How Pharma Can Navigate Change With Purpose.’ It reconfirmed, at times of external crisis, like the global pandemic, creation of ‘purpose-driven brands’ is vital. Not just ‘for saving and maintaining business, but also for boosting internal team morale, and reconciling public trust.’

The pandemic has redefined the core purpose of a brand:

Another recent article –‘Through COVID-19, Leading Brands Have Found Their Purpose,’ published in CMO by Adobe, among many others, vindicated this point. Acknowledging that the COVID-19 pandemic has redefined the meaning of brand purpose, the paper explained the reason for the same.

In pre-Covid days, many organizations used to build brands following traditional norms – curing or effectively managing a disease is the purpose of a brand. But, since last few years, a growing number of new generation health care customers expect a brand’s ‘purpose’ to expand beyond the product and the company. It has to be inclusive in nature – benefiting the macro-environment, including governments, health care professionals, and the public. With this expectation gathering momentum during Covid time, pharma players would also need to redefine the core ‘purpose’ of a brand. Incidentally, many pharma CEOs also believe, if this trend continues, the image of the industry would probably undergo a metamorphosis.

Surveys vindicate the rationale for redefinition:

Several top consulting organizations have published excellent articles covering a number of critical points in this area. One such paper - ‘Purpose is everything,’ was published in Deloitte Insights, on October 15, 2019. It wrote on how brands that authentically lead with ‘purpose’ are changing the nature of business today.

The rationale for redefinition of brand purpose, also gets reflected in a contemporary Deloitte survey, as quoted in the above article. It revealed the following top three issues that stakeholders identify with, while making decisions about brands: 

Top Issues

% of respondents
How the company treats its own people/employees

28
How the company treats the environment

20
How the company supports the community in which it operates

19

Aligning purpose to create deeper connections with stakeholders:

Especially at the Covid time, if companies try to align their purpose in doing good – for the society, they can build deeper connections with their stakeholders. And, in turn, amplify the company’s relevance in their stakeholders’ lives. From this perspective, it’s good to note in the above Bloomberg article, that one of the top pharma CEOs articulating the same in public. I reckon, increasingly, pharma businesses would endeavor harnessing the power and opportunity of aligning the ‘core purpose of brands’ with societal good, as came out in the above Deloitte article.

Mostly millennial generation favor ‘purpose-driven’ brands:

The initiation of this trend dates back to pre-Covid time with wider usage of internet. However, with the increasing democratization of health care - social media based instant information sharing, the ability to communicate with others as needed, have increased manifold. Consequently, stakeholders, particularly, the millennial generation with a different mindset, aspirations and expectations are expecting pharma players to act more on the pressing societal issues. This makes them lean towards a purpose driven brands and companies. The unprecedented Covid health crisis is acting as a force multiplier in this area.

Another study – ‘Why Customers Are Supporting ‘Purpose-Driven’ Brands,’ published in Link fluence epitomized this evolving customer preference succinctly. It reiterated, ‘It’s no longer enough for brands to deliver great products and experiences. Instead, consumers are demanding for brands to be more proactive and conscious in delivering value to society as a whole.’

‘Purpose-driven brands’ – the latest ‘marketing buzzword’?

This question was conclusively answered about two years ago -  from the 2018 Cone/Porter Novelli Purpose Study. Although, this survey was conducted in the United States, it has a global relevance amid Covid pandemic. Some of the key findings include: 

  • 78 percent believe companies must do more than just make money; they must positively impact society as well.
  • 77 percent feel a stronger emotional connection to Purpose-driven companies over traditional companies.
  • 66 percent would switch from a product they typically buy, for a new product from a purpose-driven company.
  • 68 percent is more willing to share content with their social networks over that of traditional companies. 

Examples of ‘purpose-driven’ pharma brands/companies:

Let me give just two examples each – from pre-Covid and Covid times. The article – ‘Mission-Drive Pharma Brands,’ published by Wonder on January 15, 2018, cited several examples of ‘purpose-driven’ pharma brands. This was based on a research of individual drug campaigns for top-selling drugs around that time. These include promotional campaigns on:

  • Humira: Highlighted the participation in a community food drive, and volunteering in a playground construction project.
  • Lyrica: Highlighted the engagement in a multi-generational interaction and helping others.

Encouragingly, while combating COVID-19, several pharma companies have also displayed a sense of ‘purpose’ to save the humanity from the pandemic, mainly through collaborative approaches. Let me quote below two such examples:

  • On April 14, 2020 GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi announced a very unusual collaboration to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, expeditiously. This was done for a greater purpose, responding to the critical need of the society – saving millions of lives.
  • Roche called on and campaigned for the governments for focusing on testing and prevention, to maintain adequate medical supplies for health care professionals  around the world. It also urged the health authorities to work closely with the life sciences industry to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic through international collaboration to tackle Covid-19 pandemic.

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, as on October 04, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 6,549,373 of Coronavirus cases with 101,812 deaths. Still there is no respite from Covid-19’s unprecedented onslaught on the country. Be that as it may,  coming back to the creation of ‘purpose-driven brands’ in the Covid time, let me quote again from the above CMO by Adobe article, where it underscored:“Never before have brands been asked to show their true purpose and leadership as they are today. It’s inspiring to see companies across industries and throughout the world come together to address some of the most pressing needs brought about by this crisis.”

As Accenture had articulated: ‘In an era of radical visibility, technology and media have given individuals the power to stand up for their opinions and beliefs on a grand scale.’ Keeping this in view, with gradually changing stakeholder mindset and expectations, the ‘purpose of a brand’ deserves to be a critical centerpiece in the pharma ‘branding’ process. Various studies have established – since pre-Covid time, and more during this pandemic – brands, reflecting a robust sense of ‘purpose’ on societal values, people and the environment, connect better with customers.

Consequently, as the stakeholders find these companies walk the talk, they develop a strong and sustainable brand preference, and reward the manufacturers commensurately, both directly and also through word of mouth. Alternatively, if the stated ‘brand purpose’ is not genuine – which customers can quickly find out through digital transparency, they shift their preferences to the deserving ones. Going by this growing trend, I reckon, creating ‘Purpose-Driven-Brands’ assumes a critical importance to win marketing warfare, in the new reality.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Aptness Of Pharma Marketing Audit In Covid Days And Beyond

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That, Covid-19 pandemic has changed the operational dynamics of many areas of the pharma industry, as compared to the old normal, is being felt by many. These changes generally fall into two categories. Some are broad industry specific changes, giving rise to a new normal. Whereas, a lot more could often be specific changes required by individual companies in the changing times – depending on how these companies were operating in pre-Covid days. The good news is, the industry specific ones are being well deliberated by many domain experts, almost on an ongoing basis.

Most experts are suggesting digital solutions, for a number of problem areas in the pharma industry as a whole. But, the reality is, for rapid adaptation of the new normal, there is also a crucial need to dovetail the Company specific solutions, with the industry specific generic ones. This effort will call for effective use of robust, well-structured and time-tested systems. However, not as many discussions seem to be taking place in this area, as on date.

As I see around, one such comprehensive and well proven approach is ‘Marketing Audit’. This can be effectively used to ascertain Company specific changes, required for successful pharma business operation during the Coronavirus triggered paradigm shift. It may not sound as zesty as a ‘digital approach,’ but remains fundamentally important for pharma marketers, nonetheless.

In this article, I shall discuss the relevance and the key importance of a comprehensive pharma Marketing Audit, in this trying time for business. Its key purpose is to give shape to a cutting-edge strategy in today’s unfamiliar order. Let me begin with a brief background of the same, for better understanding of all.

Marketing Audit demonstrated its perennial importance over decades:

To put it in perspective, let me refer to a landmark article by Philip Kotler, titled ‘‘The Marketing Audit Comes of Age.’ It was published by the MIT Sloan Management Review, on January 15, 1989. In his review of the need for Marketing Audit, one can get a sense of perennial importance of Marketing Audit, proven over decades.

In Kotler’s own words: ‘The marketing audit as an idea, dates back to the early 1950s.’ An executive at Booz Allen & Hamilton, conducted marketing audits as early as 1952. Its importance of improving business results, was captured by an excellent set of papers under the title ‘Analyzing and Improving Marketing Performance,’ published by the American Management Association, in 1959.  

Covid-19 Surveys highlight general trends, not any Company specific:

We all are witnessing these days, how the Coronavirus pandemic is changing the pharma consumers. In my June 22, 2020 article in this blog on ‘Enhancing Pharma Brand Experience in The New Normal,’ I highlighted some of the basic changes required in the traditional pharma sales and marketing practices.’ These were the generic changes in the marketplace involving the stakeholders. To illustrate this point better, let me cite some recent examples.

The pandemic has suddenly accelerated certain trends:

The lockdowns have brought to the fore certain shortcomings of the pharma industry, more than ever before. Consequently, its serious fallout compelled almost all players ‘to evaluate and adapt its roles and responsibilities almost overnight.’ This point was captured in the ‘Survey results: Accelerating digital transformation during COVID-19,’ published by Reuters Events– Pharma on September 04, 2020. Some of the survey findings included the following:

  • Although, adoption of digital engagement has accelerated, pharma’s ability to deliver exceptional virtual engagement and content is being put to test.
  • Customer Relationship Management (CRM), Content Management Systems (CMS) and customer engagement platforms were found wanting and not fully exploited.
  • There will be a greater emphasis on the Connected healthcare customer journey.
  • Providing a unique customer experience will emerge as a competitive edge.
  • The industry must re-direct resources accordingly, and re-tool to make the most of them.

Let’s now examine some India specific findings from another survey in this space.

Some India specific survey findings:

To explore the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian pharmaceutical industry, another survey, conducted by C Com Digital of India, came out with some interesting findings, some of which are as follows:

  • The new normal warrants a strategic shift in the business operation, besides engagement with doctors and patients.
  • Increasingly, drug companies are moving into online business operations from mostly offline operations of pre-Covid days.
  • Many companies are considering dedicating about 5 percent to 10 percent of their marketing budget towards creating webinars and online communications.
  • Teleconsultations and online consultations are steadily increasing and around 42 percent patients are getting their prescriptions in this way.
  • Doctor visits dropped by 5 percent only during March-April 2020 period.
  • Companies are expanding in online patient education, and online field staff training through custom made e-Learning modules.

As we find above, the emerging new trends are all generic in nature – not enough to prepare any comprehensive company specific strategy for success in the prevailing situation. This brings us to the question: What exactly is Marketing Audit and its relevance during pandemic days?

Relevance of Marketing Audit during pandemic days and beyond:

Thus, the extent of changes required on all sales and marketing related areas, during the pandemic period and beyond, has to be carefully and productively evaluated by each Company, separately. No wonder, why a comprehensive ‘Marketing Audit,’ is also considered “a marketing mirror” - so appropriately.

Without going into the theoretical details, let me first try to explain this terminology in simple terms. It has clearly been established that a Marketing Audit helps understanding, both internal and external marketing environments of an organization, in a comprehensive way. Mainly because, it involves an in-depth and data analysis of the concerned company’s business domain, not just to accurately diagnose the new areas of problems, but also to work out a contemporary – cutting edge marketing strategy.

Thus, I reckon, this tool should be effectively used by pharma marketers, as a high potential mechanism in the marketing warfare, especially during the global pandemic and beyond. Still, some can raise the question, what exactly pharma industry surveys will tell you and what those won’t, – and what gaps company specific surveys will help bridge.

The gaps that Marketing Audit will help bridge:

Industry specific surveys on Covid-19 pandemic would tell the Companies where they should aim to reach. However, each Company would still need to figure out where they currently are in those areas, and most importantly how to reach the target point. An effective Marketing Audit will help the Companies get exact information on where they currently are, and how to reach where they want to reach.

As the new normal is changing, it needs to be done periodically: 

The information obtained through a robust Marketing Audit will help address both customer and market needs – on the one hand and honing or reorganizing the company’s internal value delivery systems commensurately, on the other. However, when an unprecedented or a disruptive change, such as the Covid-19 pandemic keeps striking all conceivable entities, very hard, ‘the new normal’ keeps changing. In this situation, most of the past success ingredients will no longer yield results. Thus, to realign the business with changing market demand, pre-Covid strategic blueprint needs to be redrawn, alongside the necessary wherewithal required for the same.

Marketing Audit, therefore, becomes a periodic requirement for all organizations, assuming the importance of a key business success imperative, if not for survival in the new normal. Any delay in this area may lead to significant loss of Company business.

Conclusion:

According to Covid-19 update of Evaluate Pharma, ‘seemingly uncontrollable advance of Covid-19 in India,’ is perturbing. As on September 20 morning, the country had recorded a staggering figure of 5,400,619 of Coronavirus cases with 86,774 deaths, overtaking Brazil the week before.

The above report points out the potential danger of ‘the country’s health care system to buckle under the weight of hospital admissions for the virus.’ However disturbing this trend may be, from the pharma industry perspective, it sends, at least, four clear signals:

  • It’s a long-haul struggle for the business, as Covid-19 is not going to vanish any time soon.
  • The barriers to in-person interaction will continue for an indefinite period.
  • The market dynamics will keep changing, mostly based on Government’s new guidelines.
  • A robust, flexible, contemporary and comprehensive marketing strategy needs to be supported by stronger and time-tested marketing systems for all times.

From the above perspective, one such time-tested mechanism still remains – ‘the Marketing Audit.’ For business excellence during Covid times, it carries a game changing potential, by dovetailing the industry specific generic problems with company specific strategic solutions.

The criticality of ‘Marketing Audit’ does not remain limited just to bright pharma marketers. It also provides an equally critical top management decision support tool, especially for risk-benefit analysis of the corporate business. Thus, relevance and importance of ‘Marketing Audit’, would remain undiluted, not just during the Covid pandemic – but much beyond.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

How Relevant Is A Pharma Brand Name To Patients?

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Are brand names necessary for medicines? Well – its’s a contentious issue, at least, as on date. It becomes the subject of a raging debate when the same question is slightly modified to: – Are brand names necessary for prescription drugs?

The current reality is, almost all pharma companies believe, and have been following this practice. This has been happening for decades, regardless of the fact that unlike other branded non-pharma products, each and every drug also carries another specific name – the generic name. Which is why, questions are often raised, why can’t drugs be prescribed only in generic names by the doctors?

Before I proceed further, let me recapitulate the definition of a ‘brand’. One of the most comprehensive definitions of a brand is: Unique design, sign, symbol, words, or a combination of these that identifies a product and differentiates it from its competitors. It helps create a level of credibility, quality, and satisfaction in the consumer’s mind, by standing for certain benefits and value. And, the creative marketing practices followed in this process is termed as ‘branding’. Keeping this at the center, in this article, let me try to arrive at a relevant perspective on this subject.

The arguments in favor:

Votaries of pharma branding believe that a pharma brand helps establish an emotional connect with the consumers on various parameters, including quality, efficacy, safety and reliability. This is expected to establish a preferential advantage of a brand over its competitors. Quoting the ‘father of advertising’ David Ogilvy, some of these proponents relate the outcome of branding to offering ‘intangible sum of a product’s attributes’ to its consumers, and also prospective consumers.

Entrepreneur India puts across such favorable outcome of ‘branding’ very candidly, which is also applicable to branding medicines – both patented and generic ones. It says, “Consistent, strategic branding leads to a strong brand equity, which means the added value brought to your company’s products or services that allows you to charge more for your brand than what identical, unbranded products command.”

The general belief within the pharma industry is that, ‘branding’ facilitates doctors in choosing and prescribing medicines to patients, especially in those situations where the choices are many. Aficionados of pharma product branding argue, that to save time, doctors usually select those top of mind products, which they are familiar with and feel, can serve the purpose well. This belief prompts the necessity to go all out for ‘branding’ by the pharma companies, even when the process is an expensive one.

Where pharma ‘branding’ is necessary:

There are a few old publications of the 1980’s, which claim that studies based on human psychology have found that medicines with brand names can have a better perceived impact on the actual effectiveness of ‘Over the Counter (OTC)’ medications. One of the examples cited was of aspirin.

Be that as it may, the relevance of branding for OTC pharmaceutical products is undeniable, where a medicinal product is generally treated just as any other Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) goods. Establishing an emotional connect of OTC brands with consumers is, therefore, considered an important process to create a preferential perceived advantage over its competitors.

There is no well-laid out legal or procedural pathway, as yet, for pharma OTC brands in India. No ‘Direct to Consumer (DTC) promotion is allowed in the country for Schedule H and Schedule X drugs – the only exceptions being Ayurvedic proprietary medicines and for homeopathy drugs. That said, the question continues to haunt, how relevant is branding for prescription drugs – now?

Relevance of ‘branding’ for prescription drugs:

The juggernaut of ‘branding prescription drugs’, riding mostly the wave of vested interests – of many hues and color, has been made to be perceived as necessary to ensure drug quality and safety for patients. It continues to move on, up until today, even for highly specialized prescription drugs. Nonetheless, some initiatives are visible from some Governments to gradually shift this contentious paradigm.

This move has been catalyzed by a blend of changing times with changing expectations of a large number of patients. They want to be an integral part in their treatment decisions, receive more personalized healthcare from both doctors and pharma companies. Patients, ultimately, want to feel confident that they’re receiving the best treatment – says a fresh study.

A number of other research papers also confirm that, a virtually static bar of patients’ expectations, in the disease treatment process – either for themselves or their near and dear ones, is slowly but surely gaining height, measurably. For better outcomes, patients have started expecting new types of services both from their doctors and the drug manufacturers. This process begins, even before a final decision is taken in the treatment process. As this paradigm shifts, pharma players would be significantly impacted – in several parameters.

Fast expanding digital empowerment options for all, across the world, is expediting this process further, including India. Placing oneself in the midst of it, one may ponder – how relevant is pharma branding today, as is being highlighted by many, since long.

In my view, a part of the answer to the above question arguably lies in a study titled, “Product Launch: The Patient Has Spoken”. The Key findings from the survey that covered 8,000 patients from three generations in the US, the UK, Germany and France, were published by ‘Accenture Life Sciences’ in January 2018. The research reveals how these patients evaluate and select new treatments in eight therapeutic areas (immune system, heart, lungs, brain, cancer, hormone/ metabolism and eye disease) across three generations, spanning across – Baby boomers, Generation X and Millennials.

Brands don’t matter to most patients…outcomes do:

69 percent of patients said, the benefits of the product are more important to them than the brand of the product. The four top factors influencing patients’ while making decisions about their healthcare are listed in the report as:

  • The doctor/ physician relationship: 66 percent
  • The patient’s ability to maintain their current lifestyle: 55 percent
  • Patients’ ease of access to health care they’ll need: 53 percent
  • Patients’ financial situation / ability to pay: 51 percent. When this is read with another finding where, 48 percent of patients believe that their doctors discuss the whole range of product options with them, a more interesting scenario emerges.

Further, lack of knowledge about the treatments available, as expressed by 42 percent of patients obviously indicate, pharma players’ intent to better inform patients by educating the doctors through brand promotion is not working. Interestingly, brand loyalty or popularity appeared relatively unimportant, ranking twelfth out of 14 influencing factors. Just 25 percent of patients characterized themselves as having a strong affinity with brands in a healthcare setting – the above report revealed.

Could there be an alternative approach?

An effective ‘branding’ exercise should lead to creating a ‘brand loyalty’ for any product. For pharma companies, doctors’ brand loyalty should lead to more number of its brand prescriptions. This expectation emanates from the idea that the prescription brand will represent something, such as quality, trust, assured relief, or may well be anything else. That means pharma product ‘branding’ is primarily aimed at the medical profession.

In an alternative approach to the current practice, an article titled, “From Managing Pills to Managing Brands”, published sometime back in the March-April 2000 issue of the Harvard Business Review (HBR), finds its great relevance, even today. It says, pharma companies can retain the loyalty of customers by building a franchise around specific therapeutic areas based on a focused approach to R&D. In other words, their corporate brand can replace individual drug brands. For example, a doctor looking for a treatment for – say asthma, would look for the latest GlaxoSmithKline medicines. Let me hasten to add, I used this example just to illustrate a point. This may appear as a long shot to some. Nonetheless, it would significantly reduce the cost of marketing, and subsequently the cost of a drug to patients. Incidentally, I also wrote about the relevance of ‘Corporate Branding’ in this Blog on June 15, 2015.

Conclusion:

With this fast-emerging backdrop, the Accenture Study raises an important issue to this effect. It wonders, whether the expenses incurred towards branding medicines, especially, during product launch be significantly reduced and be made more productive?

Illustrating the point, the report says, in 2016, the US pharmaceutical and healthcare industry alone spent US$ 15.2 billion in marketing. To earn a better business return, could a substantial part of this expenditure be reallocated to other programs that matter more to patients, such as access to patient service programs, and creating ‘Real-World Evidence (RWE)’ data that can document improved health outcomes, particularly those that matter to patients?

Well-crafted pharma branding and other associated initiatives, targeted predominantly to the medical profession, may make a doctor emotionally obligated to prescribe any company’s specific brands, for now. However, in the gradually firming-up ‘patient outcomes’-oriented environment, where patients want to participate in the treatment decision making process, will it remain so?

Dispassionately thinking, to most patients, a brand is as good or bad as the perceived value it delivers to them in the form of outcomes. Or, in other words, prescription pharma brands may not even matter to most of them, at all, but the outcomes will be. Hopefully, before it is too late pharma players would realize that, especially the well-informed patients are becoming co-decision makers in choosing the drug that a doctor will prescribe to them. If not, the current targeted process of pharma prescription drug branding, may lose its practical relevance, over a period of time.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Relevance Of Outliers In Pharma Sales Forecasting

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Just like any other predictions or forecasting – on a broader sense, pharma sales forecasts are also a tough and tedious task. Availability of many sophisticated state of the art digital software tools and techniques, notwithstanding.

In an article, published in the July-August 2007 issue of Harvard Business Review (HBR), Paul Saffo – a forecaster based in Silicon Valley, California – expressed this point succinctly with a nice example. He said: “Prediction is possible only in a world in which events are preordained and no amount of action in the present can influence future outcomes. That world is the stuff of myth and superstition. The one we inhabit is quite different—little is certain, nothing is preordained, and what we do in the present affects how events unfold, often in significant, unexpected ways.”

At this point, I would respectfully prefer to slightly alter the last sentence of the quote as, “….and what we and (others) do in the present affects how events unfold, often in significant, unexpected ways.”  This is important to me, as we may have control over what ‘we do’, but may not have much control over what ‘others do’ in the present, which may also greatly affect how events unfold, often in significant, unexpected ways.

However, the author distinctly differentiates predictions from forecasts by clarifying that prediction is concerned with future certainty, whereas forecasting looks at how hidden currents in the present, signal possible changes in direction for companies. Thus, unlike a prediction, a forecast must have a logic to it and the forecasters must be able to articulate and defend that logic.

My own hands-on experience in the domestic, as well as the pharma industry of the western world tells me that the actual sales and profit may seldom be a replica of the respective forecasts for the same. However. a reasonably good forecast is the one that is much closer to reality.

That said, it is important to note in the same context, what the above HBR paper has said, in this regard. The author underscores whether a specific forecast actually turns out to be accurate is only part of the picture. Citing a nice simile it says, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Thus, the forecaster’s one of the key tasks is to map uncertainty where our actions in the present influence the future. Uncertainty is an opportunity, he articulates.

In this article, I shall try to explore the possible reasons why, despite the availability of so many sophisticated digital software tools and techniques, the reality in most cases is much different. In a significant number of occasions, the actual sales is much less than the sales forecasts.

The criticality of forecast accuracy:

As we know, sales forecasts today are generally data pooling or consensus forecasts for better buying-in by the implementer, as there exists a critical need, just not to deliver closer to the forecasts, but to exceed the same, especially for the new products.

One will get the flavor of criticality of sales forecast accuracy from the McKinsey research study titled, “The Secret of Successful Drug Launches”, published in March 2014. It found that two-thirds of the sample group of drug-launches failed meeting pre-launch sales forecasts in their very first year on the market. The sample for this study comprised 210 new drugs launched between 2003 and 2009, for which McKinsey gathered necessary consensus-forecasts data for launch from EvaluatePharma. Three important findings of this EvaluatePharma – McKinsey analysis may be summed up, as follows:

1. Actual sales during the first year of launch as % of sales forecast one year before launch:

  • % of launches below forecasts: 66
  • % of launches on or near forecasts: 8
  • % of launches exceeded the forecast: 26

2. Of launches that exceeded the forecasts in the year 1:

  • 65% continued to do so in the year 2
  • 53% of those exceeded forecasts in the year 3

3. Of launches that lagged forecasts in the year 1:

  • 78%continued to do so in the year 2
  • 70% of those lagged forecasts in the year 3

In an eloquent way, this study highlights the benefits of sales forecast accuracy for a sustainable performance excellence, especially with new products.

Wide room for improvement in forecasts:

Although, my focus in this article will be on sales revenue forecasts, there is a wide room for improvement in other related forecasts, as well.

Another interesting article titled, “Outsmart Your Own Biases”, appeared in the May 2015 issue of the Harvard Business Review revealed, when researchers asked hundreds of chief financial officers from a variety of industries to forecast yearly returns for the S&P 500 over a nine-year horizon, their 80% ranges were right only one-third of the time. The authors considered it as a terribly low rate of accuracy for a group of executives with presumably vast knowledge of the economy of the United States.

The study further indicated that projections are even further off the mark when people assess their own plans, partly because their desire to succeed skews their interpretation of the data.

Such a scenario prompts the need of yet greater application of a mix of creative and analytical minds to ferret out the reasons behind general inaccuracy in forecasting, which incidentally does not mean setting out an easy target, and then exceeding it. Right sales forecasting with high accuracy, is expected to make use of every potential future opportunity in the best possible way to achieve continuous excellence in performance.

Analyzing outliers in consensus forecasting:

A recent paper deliberated on this area backed by some relevant case studies to capture the relevance of outliers in consensus-forecasting for the pharma companies.

The 2017 study of EvaluatePharma, titled “The Value of Outliers in Consensus Forecasting” flagged some important points. It also asked, are we questioning the level of agreement or disagreement, while leveraging each estimate for consensus forecasts?

However, in this article, I shall highlight only on the relevance of outliers in pharma sales forecasting, and keep aside the question on the level of agreement or disagreement while leveraging each estimate for consensus forecasts, for another discussion.

As many of us have experienced, there will always be outliers in most of the consensus forecasting process, which are usually removed while arriving at the final numbers. Nonetheless, this article brings on to the table the importance of outliers who, on the contrary, can provide an insightful view, especially in those areas with more upside potential and downside risk.

Just to recapitulate, an outlier is a data point that lies at an abnormal distance from other data points, which in this case is data related to consensus-forecast. This divergence can be either very high or very low. Which is why, outlier removal is a common practice, as it is considered as bad data by many. Nonetheless, before singling out and elimination of outliers, it will be a good idea to analyze and understand the exact reasons behind the same.

The above paper also indicates that combining consensus forecasts with the analysis of outliers will enable the pharma companies:

  • To better balancing risk and upside
  • Improving accuracy of new product selection

Conclusion:

Just as in any business, for pharmaceuticals too, sales forecasting holds a crucial importance, having a far-reaching impact. This is primarily because, many critical decisions are taken based on sales forecasts, such as internal revenue and capital budgeting, financial planning, deployment of sales, marketing and other operational resources, including supply chain, to name a few. All these, individually and collectively, necessitate that sales forecasts, especially for new products, should be of high accuracy.

One of the recent trends in this area, is pooling or consensus forecasts, though, it is not free from some criticism. The recent EvaluatePharma study, as quoted above, clearly demonstrates that this approach helps increase forecast accuracy, especially in situations with a high degree of uncertainty.

The upper and lower bounds of consensus known as outliers, may often identify potential upside or downside events that could significantly affect the outlook of a pharmaceutical company.

With this perspective, it now clearly emerges that in-depth analysis of outliers is of high relevance to improve accuracy of pharma sales forecasts, in a significant way.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Relevance of Content Marketing In Pharma

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“Nearly half of pharma industry may come under price control” – was the headline of a media report of June 7, 2017. Although, National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) has apparently denied any such move, the fact is that the number of drugs coming under price control is steadily creeping up, ever since the Drugs Price Control Order 2013 came into force. If this trend continues, the gross profit margin of most of the branded generic manufacturers will also keep getting significantly squeezed, with a varying degree, though.

Coupled with drug pricing pressure in the United States, USFDA import bans from several manufacturing plants in India and dwindling number of new generic drugs ready for US launch, the market capitalization of many publicly listed pharma companies, may go further south. An important example of this situation was cited by Bloomberg, with reasons, in its report of June 07, 2017 carrying a headline “Pharma Woes Axe $14 Billion From Wealth of Once-Richest Indian.”

However, the overall setting is not so distressing for all Indian drug manufacturers, for different reasons. The June 08, 2017 headline of another  business news daily stating – “Cadila Healthcare overtakes Lupin as second most valuable pharma company in India,” vindicates the point. The promoter of this company reportedly said, ‘the company expects to receive 40 product approvals in the US in the current financial year.’

Be that as it may, added to these pain points of many pharma players in the country, Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s recent hint on framing rules for doctors to prescribe generic drugs, invites yet another wave of worries for the branded generic drugs players in India, regardless of a solid socioeconomic reason for the same.

Keeping these developments in perspective, collectively, the headwind faced by the Indian pharma industry, regardless of the underlying reasons, is indeed a tough one to navigate through, unscathed. Consequently, the stellar aggregate net profit growth of 41.3 percent in 2016 over 2015, as reported by the 2016 Dun & Bradstreet publication titled, “India’s Leading Pharmaceutical Companies 2016”, could possibly be rather challenging to maintain. Let me hasten to add that a much slower rise in the sector’s largest expense head – ‘raw material expenses’, also helped to achieve this enviable profit growth in 2016, as the report elaborated.

In this article, I shall try to fathom the depth this issue, and the possible way forward.

Areas of laudable contribution by the pharma industry:

For several decades, the pharmaceutical industry has been playing a leading role, not just in offering new innovative drugs, but their cheaper generic equivalents also, as those go off-patent, incessantly, to save and improve the quality millions of lives, across the world. The success of the drug industry is fundamentally driven by innovation – both in the discovery of new molecules and treatments, as well as in coming out with new cost efficient processes to significantly improve patients’ access to innovative drugs, post patent expiry.

Two areas requiring greater focus:

In tandem with these laudable initiatives, two disturbing trends are gathering momentum. One such trend is inadequate understanding of the grave fall out of not meeting with important stakeholders’ expectation on product pricing. As a result, various Governments and other health care payers are coming down heavily on pharma players to make drug prices affordable for the patients.

And the second one is, an intriguing apathy to be innovative in engaging with each stakeholder to take them on board. This can be done by communicating transparently, an easy-to-understand way and a customized way, the major benefits the individual players have been providing to facilitate various public health care initiatives. An apparent disinterest in this area continues, despite the snowballing effect of adverse public perception, and increasing trust deficit.

The core factors driving the trends:

These two trends are generally driven by two core factors – one is external, and the other internal. The external one is related to the general socioeconomic environment, and the internal one is intimately related to strategic business game plans of individual pharma companies.

The discussion will get more complex, if one wants to know whether the traditional pharma business models have a catalytic effect on the seemingly hostile business environment. As I have discussed several times in this blog, what the pharma players can possibly do in the pricing area, I shall not go into that subject yet again.

Nevertheless, what the pharma companies can do in the second area, to achieve their key strategic business goals, is quite different from what most of them are doing or not doing, till date. As we see around, many pharma players, especially the Indian branded generic companies remain engaged predominantly with the doctors, in the form of product detailing, or through Continuing Medical Education (CME) events, or the likes of these.

Today’s newer kind of strategic intervention calls for expert inputs. This is essential to create credible-research-based innovative content, and deliver the same with absolute precision through tailor-made platforms, for effective engagement with each stakeholder. It goes without saying, this should be done in a way that ordinary citizens or netizens can easily relate to.

Relevance of ‘Content Marketing’:

As the traditional pharma marketing is becoming progressively less and less effective, the need for a comprehensive content marketing model is becoming critical for the Indian pharma industry, more than ever before. In this model, useful content will be at the core of pharma marketing

According to the Content Marketing Institute (CMI): ‘Content Marketing is a strategic marketing approach focused on creating and distributing valuable, relevant, and consistent content to attract and retain a clearly defined audience – and, ultimately, to drive profitable customer action.’

It is possible to make the demand of a medical product, or a caring corporate image, more sustainable through content marketing, as compared to the traditional ones where individual product detailing and CMEs become the centerpieces of marketing strategy.

Why is it so important for pharma now?

According to a Pew Research Study, “One in three American adults have gone online to figure out a medical condition.”

Similarly, PwC Health Research Institute’s consumer survey of 1,060 US adults highlights, about one-third of consumers are using the social space as a natural habitat for discussions on health. More than 80 percent of individuals aged between18 and 24 would likely to share health-related information through social media, while nearly 90 percent of individuals would engage in health-related activities, or trust information found via social media. Around 45 percent of consumers said information from social media would affect their decisions to seek a second opinion.

In India too, increasing number of doctors and patient populations are ferreting information that they require from cyberspace, including different expert websites, online, and immediately when they require those.

Doctors are searching for detail information on different drugs, about their manufacturers, new treatment processes, and required data on clinical trials. Similarly, patients are searching for information in various other areas, such as, different aspects of the diseases that they or their near or dear ones are suffering from, and their effective modes of treatment with cost data, by getting connected online with related patient groups or communities. Even when engaging with the doctors, they often want to cross verify the outcome of discussion with the information available on the Internet. So do the doctors with the information provided by the pharma companies in person.

For example, one such popular website, among many others, is The Mayo Clinic’s Sharing blog designed for the Mayo Clinic community, and includes the following area:

  • Sharing experience of patient communities
  • Specialist doctors discussing new treatments, contemporary innovation in the health care space and patient care
  • Medical researchers and specialist doctors sharing their research experiences
  • Discussion on future health care and wellness by the professionals at Mayo Clinic
  • Students sharing their experience and perspectives in various areas

Driven by the current digital wave, and the word of mouth publicity to the benefits derived by the doctors and patients through such process, an ever-increasing number of the population is expected to do the same, in the years ahead.

Thus, a huge marketing opportunity in this much unexplored area awaits the Indian pharma players to establish an emotional connect with the stakeholders, including the doctors and patients, by providing all relevant information that they are web-searching for.

Needs specialization:

Unlike traditional pharma marketing, content marketing is a highly-specialized area – especially for the generation of requisite meaningful and quality data, getting the relevant insight through analytics for innovative message creation.

Moreover, as the current public image of pharma players, in general, is not very encouraging, it may be a good idea to work on various trust building activities. These may include videos on patients narrating their stories or a research experience, and infographics. Thereafter, its delivery through best suited communication platforms, across the marketing channels, followed by constant evaluation of the quality impact generated, will be critical.

Content marketing initiative in pharma should ideally start on a pilot scale and curated to enhance stakeholder engagement level, as necessary, before scaling it up to a national or a global level, as the situation would call for.

A few examples:

Some global pharma players have initiated great work in the space of content marketing. These are aimed at mostly to increase the awareness level and educate patients, doctors, and caregivers in some important and carefully crafted areas. A few examples are as follows:

  • Actually She Can (Allergan): on contraception options
  • Set Your Sights (Novartis): on vision conditions that a person may not have been previously aware of
  • Living Like You (Novartis): on coping with Multiple Sclerosis at its different stages
  • Arthritis.com (Pfizer): provides information about rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis
  • Quitter’s Circle (Pfizer and American Lung Association): provides resource for those who want to quit smoking and their supporters.

Conclusion:

The most predictable part in the pharma business environment is its unpredictability. What is happening today with various large and seemingly invincible players of the recent past, is indeed jaw dropping. Some experts had predicted that the ultimate outcome of getting fixated into mostly traditional business practices in a rapidly changing socioeconomic setting and technology focused environment, could seriously challenge the long-term sustainability of a business.

The major adverse impact on the Indian pharma sector’s overall business performance is primarily driven primarily by the product pricing pressure and USFDA import bans on product quality parameters. Many believe, both these are intimately related to the current business practices of the industry, in general, leading to increasing trust deficits between the pharma companies and the Government, including the public.

The growth engine of the pharma industry is innovation, which would always remain so. Interestingly, in marketing areas no much innovation is noticed. Continuous and effective engagement with all stakeholders is critical now, not just for brand promotion, but also on corporate mission, vision and values, giving solid examples of how the company is making steady progress in those areas. This would help establish credibility in their eyes and take them on board to create a powerful and trustworthy voice for effective brand engagements, as well. It will also encourage the pharma players to ‘walk the talk’, in the real world, always.

The opportunities that a comprehensive content marketing strategy could offer to pharma companies to move in this direction, are phenomenal. It helps to get emotionally connected with all stakeholders, by providing relevant information, including those they are web-searching for, in a more innovative and informative format.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.