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Pharma To Leverage The Art of Turning Challenges Into Opportunities, Now

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Since, the dawn of the year 2020, the human population living in different countries, across the world are facing ‘lockdowns in different forms. Although essential, it severely restricts normal daily essential and other important activities of all. A large number of populations in India, is also experiencing the same – for nearly 4 months, almost at a trot, as on date.

The fear of getting infected by COVID-19, fueled by uncertainty about a comprehensive way to surely avert infection and apprehension about what happens if someone gets infected, have been haunting many for several months. Moreover, the possible impact of several related essential measures, such as, social distancing and wearing a mask mostly while being outdoors, on both life and livelihood, is profound. It has already started causing an unprecedented – both physical and mental stress on many individuals, besides the economy of the nation.

Living amid ‘lockdown’ conditions is not just an unpleasant experience for all, it’s almost a ‘prison like’, experience for a vast number of people – particularly, both young and old with comorbidly. “It’s very similar to being trapped in a bunker with no access outside,” as expressed by a person with similar issues, which, may be construed as a universal feeling of common individuals. Interestingly, this was quoted in an article -  ‘What patients need right now’, published in the Reuters Events Pharmaon July 07, 2020. The article also highlighted that many other fellow sufferers, especially non-Covid-19 patients, are enduring pandemic enforced isolation without much hope. “They are staying in limbo until help is available and adapting to the worsening of their health conditions,” the article added.

Further, as captured in the McKinsey article – ‘COVID-19 and commercial pharma: Navigating an uneven recovery,’ published on April 21, 2020 – not just patients, health care professionals including doctors, are also facing unprecedented challenges. Especially, because of the need to address fundamental changes in the treatment of patients with conditions other than COVID-19. This is happening across medical specialties and therapeutic areas, besides of course in advising and treating patients with suspected and confirmed cases of COVID-19.

In some instances, some doctors do also worry about their financial security, as practices and health systems face unprecedented financial issues, the above article emphasized. However, at the same time, many of them are now rapidly adjusting how they deliver care, such as through increased use of telemedicine in different forms and ways, the survey found. Which is why, the support they need from pharma companies is also changing.

Taking cognizance of these critical developments, pharma players would require rewriting their playbook for business operations and for its urgent implementation. This article will focus on this important area of pharma business, by leveraging the art of turning a problem or a challenge into an opportunity.

Leveraging the art of turning a challenge into an opportunity:

Turning a problem or challenge into an opportunity in managing business operations, isn’t a cup of tea of all managers, across domains. More so, when it’s caused by an unprecedented disruptive change, such as the Covid-19 pandemic.

The first and the foremost prerequisite from a manager is a mindset to make it happen – driven by uncluttered thinking, with a clear focus on what needs to be achieved, how and when – step by step. Each element of a change has to be analyzed in-depth – supported by credible data, with possible barriers envisaged on the way. In tandem, weighing the chances of success in these initiatives based on data – and not gut feeling, within a predetermined timeframe will be critical. The net outcome of this process will help pharma players acquire a differentiated competitive edge for excellence, amid today’s all-pervasive quandary.

Under this backdrop, leveraging the art of turning a problem or challenge into an opportunity – in an organized manner, for a successful outcome of the present and future pharma business, appears to be a crying need.

The points to ponder:

Effectively moving in this direction will call for – at its very onset, a careful and unbiased data-based assessment of several critical areas, which will include:

  • Whether customer engagement platforms, medium, processes and also the core content of communication of pre Covid-19 days remain equally relevant today, and will remain so in the foreseeable future, for productive business outcomes.
  • Mapping changes with the extent for each, in all touchpoints of disease treatment processes is important – involving both patients and doctors, and simultaneously capturing their new preferences in those areas.
  • Arriving at what strategic and tactical changes the new normal calls for, to effectively engage with especially, non-Covid patient treating doctors and non-Covid infected patients, for other disease areas.
  • How doctors are delivering care, particularly to these patients today?

Accordingly, the pathway for required changes has to be charted out in detail, specifying the end point of each, on a time-bound and ongoing basis. The good news is, several pharma players have already taken several praiseworthy initiatives to combat this crisis.

What pharma companies have done so far:

So far, many pharma companies – both global and local, have taken some commendable steps to address the immediate fallouts of the crisis. These include,

  • Repurposing old medicines – starting from hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir to dexamethasoneand probably beyond. All these drugs are currently being used for the treatment of Covide-19, although conclusive scientific evidences are still awaited – for most of such repurposed drugs.
  • Covid-19 vaccine development started almost immediately, including the homegrown ones.

As the above McKinsey article – ‘COVID-19 and commercial pharma: Navigating an uneven recovery,’ also reconfirms, now most pharma companies are largely focusing on ‘the immediate crisis, including by facilitating access to medicine; supporting HCP, institution, and patient needs in new ways; safeguarding employees; and enabling employees to operate in a new environment.’

The areas where pharma needs to focus more amid immediate crisis:

Another, responsibility of pharma to help tide over the immediate crisis, is to ensure that critical drugs, such as remdesivir, do not go in short supply. And also, avoiding unnecessary hype on a COVID-19 vaccine, which a global CEO termed as a grave disservice‘ to the public.

Nearer home, it also happened – not by any pharma company, but by the country’s premier, state-run medical research organization – the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The head of the ICMR has announced that India is planning to launch the Covid-19 vaccine by August 15, 2020. This was later retracted under heavy adverse criticism.

Future focus areas need to be in sync with the changing customer behavior:  

While converting several challenges into opportunities in sync with the future requirements of their business operations, drug companies should try to derive the first mover advantages. For this purpose, creative use of almost real-time data will be vital. In this endeavor, I reiterate, one of the top priorities will be to ensure that all touchpoints of the consumer engagement process take into account the changing customer behavior, as captured by data.

To have a productive value delivery system in the new normal, cerebral use of modern technology-based tools and platforms could provide a sharp cutting edge. A similar process may be adopted – even a stage earlier – during the differential value creation process of the business. Nevertheless, the name of the game for the future, would still remain delighting the customers at all the touch points, especially while navigating through strong headwinds.

Another major impact area of pharma business:

The onslaught of Covid-19 pandemic has also resulted in some significant behavioral changes among many health care consumers. These spans across several areas, as I wrote earlier. For example, a number of surveys have revealed that fewer number of non-Covid-19 patients are now visiting doctors’ clinics.

The study quoted by the above McKinsey article highlights some important points in this regard, such as:

  • Among surveyed HCPs, 82 percent report declines in patient volumes, with more than half describing the declines as “significant”.
  • 40 percent of the surveyed patients reported having a doctor cancel an appointment, while an additional 30 percent or so canceled the appointments themselves.
  • Half of surveyed physicians worry that their patients will not be able to receive timely care for new or existing conditions, particularly those that are not COVID-19 related.
  • The overall reduction in volume is widespread, but variation exists. For example, the number of oncology-related visits have declined far less than those related to cardiology or dermatology, perhaps reflecting patient or physician perceptions of urgency.
  • Such data represent a snapshot of a time still early in the trajectory of this crisis, but the HCPs surveyed expect the trends to continue—and to accelerate, potentially.

Another challenge is surfacing, the talent gap to squarely deal with the crisis.

The problem of talent gap, an opportunity? 

While preparing a company to succeed amid new challenges of the new normal, pharma leadership will notice some critical talent gaps in important areas of business. This is indeed a problem or a challenge. But can this also be converted into a new opportunity? … I guess, this is an opportunity of reskilling the company to meet with the future challenges, to move ahead at a faster pace.

In pursuit of this goal, top pharma decision makers may wish to evaluate a well-balanced mix of two approaches:

  • Reskilling competent existing employees for the new world.
  • Hiring new and ready – suitable talents, for immediate results.

Conclusion:

Reuters reported last Friday, with over 1 million Covid-19 cases, ‘India joins U.S., Brazil in the grim Coronavirus club.’ As on July 19, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases in the country reached 10,77,874 with 26,828 deaths. According to the Indian Medical Association (IMA), the spike in the number of Covid-19 cases in India has resulted in the community spread of the Coronavirus disease. It further added: “This is now an exponential growth. Every day the number of cases is increasing by more than around 30,000. This is really a bad situation for the country.” The pace of climb continues going north.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of India has also urged all concerned to convert Covid-19 related challenges into opportunities. He said, it’s time to initiate reforms in several areas of governance by all the Indian State Governments.

Call it, the Prime Minister’s advice, or a basic management tool – most appropriate to leverage at this hour, the concept is worth considering by pharma players, as well, instead of getting overwhelmed by the crisis. Thus, in my view, it’s about time for pharma companies to identify critical Covid-19 related challenges, both immediate and also of the future – and convert those into opportunities – powered by technology-based cerebral inputs, in the new world order.
By: Tapan J. Ray
Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this

 

Coronavirus Outbreak: Drug Shortage, Treatment And Unease – A Review

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The Coronavirus outbreak has reached a “decisive point” and has “pandemic potential”, said the Director General of the World Health Organization (W.H.O), reportedly, on February 27, 2020, urging governments to act swiftly and aggressively to contain the virus. He further added, “We are actually in a very delicate situation in which the outbreak can go in any direction based on how we handle it.” Alerting all, he appealed, “this is not a time for fear. This is a time for taking action to prevent infection and save lives now.”

As on March 08, 2020 – 106,211 coronavirus cases (view by country) were reported globally, with 3,600 deaths and 60,197 patients recovered. Thus, the most relevant question now is the level of preparedness of each country, to prevent a possible epidemic, which may even strike at a humongous scale. This will be relevant for both, the countries already infected with a coronavirus – in a varying degree, as well as, those who are still out of it.

From the drug industry perspective, equally pertinent will be to assess on an ongoing basis its impact on the medical product supply-chain and further intensifying ongoing efforts to find the ‘magic bullet’ – an effective remedy, partly addressing the unease of all, on this score. In this article, I shall try to ferret out the current status on these points, based on available and contemporary data.

The impact assessment has commenced:

While on the current impact assessment, I shall restrict my discussion on the largest pharma and biological market of the world – the United States (US) and of course, our own – India, starting with the former. On February 14, 2020, the US released a statement of the Commissioner of Food and Drugs Administration titled, ‘FDA’s Actions in Response to 2019 Novel Coronavirus at Home and Abroad.’ Highlighting the proactive actions of the regulatory agency, the statement recorded:

“We are keenly aware that the outbreak will likely impact the medical product supply chain, including potential disruptions to supply or shortages of critical medical products in the U.S. We are not waiting for drug and device manufacturers to report shortages to us—we are proactively reaching out to manufacturers as part of our vigilant and forward-leaning approach to identifying potential disruptions or shortages.” Adding further, he revealed that the US-FDA is in touch with regulators globally and has added resources to quickly spot “potential disruptions or shortages.”

Whereas in India, the Chemicals and Fertilizers Ministry has also announced: “The Government of India is closely monitoring the supply of APIs/intermediates/Key starting materials (KSMs) which are imported from China and the effect of the outbreak of a novel coronavirus in China on their supply.”

The current status:

As this is an ongoing emergency exercise, on February 27, 2020, by another statement, the US-FDA reported the first shortage of a drug, without naming it, due to the COVID-19 outbreak. It identified about 20 other Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) or finished drug formulations, which they source only from China. Since January 24, the US-FDA has, reportedly, been in touch with more than 180 manufacturers of human drugs to monitor the situation and take appropriate measures wherever necessary. However, the prices of some key ingredients have already started increasing.

Back home, on March 03, 2020, Reuters reported, the Indian Government has asked the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) to restrict export of 26 APIs and other formulations, including Paracetamol, amid the recent coronavirus outbreak. Interestingly, these 26 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and medicines account for 10 percent of all Indian pharmaceutical exports and includes several antibiotics, such as tinidazole and erythromycin, the hormone progesterone and Vitamin B12, among others, as the report indicated.

It is unclear, though, how this restriction would impact the availability of these medicines in the countries that import from India, especially formulations, and also China. For example, in the United States, Indian imports, reportedly accounted for 24 percent of medicines and 31 percent of medicinal ingredients in 2018, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Be that as it may, it still remains a reality that China accounted for 67.56 per cent of India’s total imports of bulk drugs and drug intermediates at USD 2,405.42 million in 2018-19.

Prior to this import ban, a report of February 17, 2020 had flagged that paracetamol prices have shot up by 40 percent in the country, while the cost of azithromycin, an antibiotic used for treating a variety of bacterial infections, has risen by 70 percent. The Chairman of Zydus Cadila also expects: “The pharma industry could face shortages in finished drug formulations starting April if supplies aren’t restored by the first week of the next month,” as the news item highlighted.

No significant drug shortages reported, just yet:

From the above details, it appears, no significant drug shortages have been reported due to Coronavirus epidemics in China – not just yet. Moreover, the Minister of Chemicals and Fertilizers has also assured: ‘No shortage of drug ingredients for next 3 months.’ He further added: ‘All initiatives are being taken to ensure there is no impact of the disease in India.’

However, on March 03, 2020, W.H.O, reportedly has warned of a global shortage and price gouging for protective equipment to fight the fast-spreading coronavirus and asked companies and governments to increase production by 40 percent as the death toll from the respiratory illness mounted. Moody’s Investors Service also predicted, coronavirus outbreak may increase demand, but poses a risk of supply chain disruptions, especially for APIs and components for medical devices sourced from China.

In view of these cautionary notes, especially the health care and regulatory authorities, should continue keeping the eye on the ball. More importantly, commensurate and prompt interventions of the Government, based on real-time drug supply-chain monitoring, along with the trend of the disease spread, will play a critical role to tide over this crisis.

In search of the ‘Magic Bullet’: 

Encouragingly, on February 16, 2020, the National Medical Products Administration of China has approved the use of Favilavir, an anti-viral drug, for the treatment for coronavirus. The drug has reportedly shown efficacy in treating the disease with minimal side effects in a clinical trial involving 70 patients. The clinical trial is being conducted in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. Formerly known as Fapilavir, Favilavir was developed by Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical of China. A large number of other promising R&D initiatives are being undertaken, in tandem, by brilliant scientific minds and entities to find an effective treatment for this viral disease. To give a feel of it, let me cite just a few examples, both global and local, as below.

Pfizer Inc. has announced that it has identified certain antiviral compounds, which were already in development, with potential to treat coronavirus-affected people. The company is currently engaged in screening the compounds. It is planning to initiate clinical studies on these compounds by year-end, following any positive results expected by this month end.

Several large and small pharma/biotech are now engaged in developing a vaccine or a treatment. Gilead has, reportedly, initiated two phase III studies in February 2020, to evaluate its antiviral candidate – remdesivir, as a treatment for Covid -19. Takeda is also exploring the potential to repurpose marketed products and molecules to potentially treat COVID-19, besides developing a plasma-derived therapy for the same. Pipeline candidates of other companies are in earlier stages of development, as reported.

Whereas in India, Serum Institute of India (SIL) is collaborating with Codagenix, a US-based biopharmaceutical company, to develop a coronavirus cure using a vaccine strain similar to the original virus. The vaccine is currently in the pre-clinical testing phase, while human trials are expected to commence in the next six months. SII is expected to launch the vaccine in the market by early 2022.

Zydus Cadila, as well, has launched a fast-tracked program to develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, adopting a two-pronged approach, a DNA based vaccine and a live attenuated recombinant measles virus vectored vaccine to combat the virus. These initiatives seem to be a medium to long-term shots – laudable, nonetheless. 

Current off-label drug treatment for coronavirus:

Some of the drugs, reportedly, being used in China to treat coronavirus include, AbbVie’s HIV drug, Kaletra and Roche’s arthritis drug – Tocilizumab (Actemra). However, none of these drug treatments have been authorized yet by drug regulators, to treat patients with coronavirus infection.

According to the Reuters report of March 04, 2020, China’s the National Health Commission, in its latest version of online treatment guidelines, has indicated Roche’s Tocilizumab for coronavirus patients who show serious lung damage and elevated level of a protein called Interleukin 6, which could indicate inflammation or immunological diseases.

However, there is no clinical trial evidence just yet that the drug will be effective on coronavirus patients and it has also not received approval from China’s National Medical Product Administration for use in coronavirus infections. Nonetheless, Chinese researchers recently registered a 3-month clinical trial for Actemra on 188 coronavirus patients. According to China’s clinical trials registration database, the period of trial is shown from February 10 to May 10. 

Is coronavirus becoming a community transmitted infection?

Even while grappling with an increasing number of COVID-19 positive patients, the Indian Government is showing a brave front, as it should. However, it has also confirmed “some cases of community transmission.” This unwelcome trend makes India the part of a small group of countries, including China, Japan, Italy and South Korea, where community transmission of the virus has taken place. This is a cause of an additional concern.

Although, there has been no significant drug shortages reported yet, shortages of  hand sanitizers,recommended for frequent use by the W.H.O and other competent bodies, as they can, reportedly kill Covid-19. Similarly, N95 masks useful to prevent the spread of the disease, have also disappeared, adding more fuel to fire, if not creating a panic-like situation, for many.

Conclusion:

Most global drug players with a business focus on branded – patented drugs, are not expected to fight with the supply disruptions. As reported, ‘Several top drugmakers – including Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Bayer, Merck KGaA and Roche—recently confirmed to FiercePharma that they have stock policies in place to minimize the impact.”

But, for the generic drug industry the disruption in the supply chain may have a snowballing effect. For example, as the March 03, 2020 edition of the New York Times (NYT) reported – supply chain disruption in sourcing some APIs from China is being felt most acutely in India, as the Government decided to stop exporting 26 drugs, most of them antibiotics, without explicit government permission. The same article also highlighted the possible multiplier effect of this development with its observation: “That’s a problem for the rest of the world, which relies on India’s drug makers for much of its supply of generic drugs. India exported about $19 billions of drugs last year and accounted for about one-fifth of the world’s exports of generics by volume”, it added.

As on date, there is no known cure for coronavirus infection. The magic-bullet has yet to be found out. However, over 80 clinical trials has, reportedly, been launched to test coronavirus treatments. This includes, repurposing older drugs, as well. Recently, only Favilavir, an anti-viral drug, has been approved for treatment for coronavirus by the National Medical Products Administration of China.

Coming back to the unease of many in India, the country’s perennial shortages of doctors, paramedical staff, hospital beds, adequate quarantine facility for a large number of patients and fragile public healthcare delivery system, still pose a humongous challenge in this crisis. More so, when just in the last week, U.S. intelligence sources, reportedly, told Reuters that ‘India’s available countermeasures and the potential for the virus to spread its dense population was a focus of serious concern.’

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

China Coronavirus And API Sourcing – A Threat… Or An Opportunity For India?

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‘2015 – Year of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients’ (API), announced the Government of India by a Press Release on February 25, 2015. This came after ascertaining that over-dependence on imports of bulk drugs or API, especially from China, is detrimental to India’s health interest. This decision was also in sync with the freshly announced, and well-publicized government objective regarding ‘Make in India’.

Two years down the line, on July 15, 2017, eHEALTH publication also deliberated on this issue in an article – ‘Why over dependence on APIs imported from China is harmful for India?’ It reiterated, India has proven capabilities in the generic drug formulations, but over dependence on China for sourcing – 70-75 per cent of APIs does not augur well for the Indian pharmaceutical sector. Because, as any interruption in supply from China can badly impact the sector, jeopardizing the health of millions of people, not just in India, but across the world, as well.

The reason for Indian drug formulation makers depending on China-supplied APIs, is mainly for its low cost, and not for any technological other reason, the article said. Regardless of the India’s announcement – ‘2015 as the year of API’, the API industry continued to struggle without much tangible support. Despite a lot of decisions still being in the pipeline, let me hasten to add, some inconclusive signs of early recovery have been captured in this space by some recent studies.

With the outbreak of the recent ‘coronavirus’ menace, the moment of truth has arrived in the country. On the one hand, it is posing a threat to the country’s API sourcing, on the other it could throw open a door of opportunity for Indian API manufacturers, as the Chinese API prices would start climbing up. But the question is, in which way it would evolve? In this article, I shall focus on this aspect of the new coronavirus menace, starting with a brief description of the background.

China coronavirus – when the alarm bell rang: 

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), on December 31, 2019, it was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The virus did not match any other known virus, raising a great concern. No one knows how it affects people who are sick with it – how they can be treated, and what the countries can do to respond. One week later, on 7 January, Chinese authorities confirmed that they had identified a new virus.

What it does?

This new virus is a coronavirus, which is a large family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, such as SARS and MERS.

Since the virus, reportedly was first detected in Wuhan in people who had visited a local seafood and animal market, it is likely to have transmitted from an animal to humans. Nevertheless, several known coronaviruses are known to be circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. The new coronavirus has been named novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and is the seventh coronavirus known to affect humans.

W.H.O has been working with Chinese authorities and global experts to learn more about it. However, because this is a coronavirus, which usually causes respiratory illness, the world body has circulated advice to people on how to protect themselves and those around them from getting the disease.

The damage, thus far:

Bloomberg on February 02, 2020 reported the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak has risen to 305, with 14,555 confirmed cases worldwide.  The first death outside of China took place in the Philippines on February 01. Alarmingly, 2019-nCoV infections have also spread to at least 15 other countries. These numbers keep increasing.

Nearer home, India, on January 30, 2020, also announced its first case. “One positive case of Novel Coronavirus – a student studying in Wuhan University — has been reported from Kerala,” said a statement released by the Health Ministry. On February 02, 2020, Reuters reported the second case of coronavirus in Kerala.

This scenario prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to meet again on the last Thursday and declare the new coronavirus an international public health emergency.

The impact on the pharma industry:

Responding to the criticality of this situation, health authorities across the world are trying to put in place effective ways to overcome this crisis. In the healthcare space, medical scientists are ‘racing to develop a vaccine to protect people from the virus.’ One lab in California, reportedly. has plans for a potential vaccine to enter human trials by June or July this year.

Alongside, many are wondering about the looming threat that it poses on the API sourcing from China by the global pharmaceutical industry, including India. However, as I said earlier, some Indian experts, are also sensing an opportunity for country’s API manufacturers to fill the possible void, as it gets created.

API sourcing concern:

An exclusive survey conducted by Kemiex, titled ‘Coronavirus impact analysis for APIs, feed and food additives,’ among 97 life sciences professionals, published by them on January 20, 2020, reports some interesting findings. Some of the key ones are, as follows:

  • 85 percent experts foresee API and other ingredient supply disruptions, with 35 percent expecting a high and 50 percent envisaging a low impact.
  • Orders planned for the 1st quarter with delivery in 2nd quarter are expected to be mostly affected, while disruptions might continue a quarter. Only a minority believes the disruptions will last until year end or beyond 2020.
  • The biggest impact is expected from extended Chinese New Year holidays and delayed production start.
  • A first impact analysis based on preliminary information shows that only selected products such as amino acids (taurine…), certain vitamins and other APIs and additives could be affected.
  • European and other suppliers report readiness and stocks to secure delivery to end users during interruptions in China, or some of its districts. respectively.

However, other reports also underscore, with the proliferation of the new coronavirus the incidences of confirmed infection with clear symptoms and deaths are also expected to increase. This may lead the Chinese government to extend lock down several commercially important parts of the country. Which, in turn, could impact, among others, manufacturing and shipments of API and pharma ingredients for several months.

Some green shoots are now visible in India?

Quoting a JM Financial analysis, some media reports predicted, a worsening coronavirus crisis may benefit Indian API manufacturers, as it observed some green shoots in the Indian API manufacturing space. Analyzing the stocks of six local API manufacturers – Galaxy Surfactants Ltd., Fine Organic Industries Ltd., Navin Fluorine International Ltd., SRF Ltd., PI Industries Ltd. and UPL Ltd., it found that the stocks of these companies have beaten the market trend in recent years. They observed, the robust growth of these companies was fueled by end-user industries, and exports to China – which has closed many chemical facilities on environmental concerns.

Moreover, the increase in overall API demand – caused by shortages triggered by a serious disruption of API production in China’s Hubei province, and restriction of movement within China, is likely to drive the prices up with the spread of the epidemic. The cumulative impact of all this, would possibly help the Indian bulk drug manufacturers, significantly, helping India to tide over the API sourcing crisis.

Conclusion:

‘Scientists are racing to develop a coronavirus vaccine, but it could take years to reach the market,’ as media reports highlight. Meanwhile, researchers are, reportedly, also looking at ways of quickly repurposing existing antiviral drugs to see whether any might work against the new coronavirus.

The serious health menace caused by the new coronavirus that prompted the W.H.O to signal it as a global emergency, has also raised a serious concern on API sourcing. This is because, around 80 percent of the API used by drug formulation manufacturers is sourced from China.

Looking only at this aspect of the issue, and also from the Indian perspective, the point to ponder – is it all threat? Or a veiled opportunity worth cashing-on to neutralize, at least, a part of the API sourcing threat?

Against the backdrop of the Indian Government’s announcements, such as, ‘2015 – Year of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients’ (API), alongside the well-publicized ‘Make in India’ campaign, and some recently reported green shoots in this area – the expectation of an ‘opportunity in waiting’, could well be a reality. Who knows? But, a lurking apprehension still lingers!

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Making New Cancer Drugs Cost-effective

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The prices of new cancer drugs are increasingly becoming unsustainable across the world, and more so in India. A sizable number of poor and even middle-income patients, who spend their entire life’s savings for the treatment of this dreaded disease, is pushed towards extreme economic hardship. Their plight in India would continue to remain so, till Universal Health Care (UHC) comes into force, as enunciated in the National Health Policy 2017.

Thus, the delivery of affordable and equitable cancer care poses one of India’s greatest public health challenges. Public expenditure on cancer in India remains below US$ 10 per person, as compared with more than US$ 100 per person in high-income countries. The May 2014 paper, published in ‘The Lancet Oncology’, analyzed this concern in detail.

In this article, after giving a brief backdrop, I shall explore a possible alternative to make cancer treatment with new drugs affordable to many by scaling up this strategic option.

Cancer – the second leading cause of death:

According to the World Health Organization (W.H.O), cancer is the second leading cause of death globally and accounted for 8.8 million deaths in 2015. This works out to nearly 1 in 6 of all global deaths, with US$ 1.16 trillion being the estimated total annual economic cost of cancer in 2010. Lung, prostate, colorectal, stomach and liver cancer are the most common types of cancer in men, while breast, colorectal, lung, cervix and stomach cancer are the most common among women. To reduce significant disability, suffering and deaths caused by cancer worldwide, effective and affordable programs in early diagnosis, screening, treatment, and palliative care are needed. Treatment options may include surgery, medicines and/or radiotherapy – the report reiterates. In many instances, anti-cancer drugs are the mainstay treatment.

For the country, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) reported over 736, 000 people succumbing to the disease in 2016. This figure is expected to shoot up to 880,000 by 2020. ICMR estimated the total number of new cancer cases at around 1.45 million in 2016, and the same is likely to reach 1.73 million by 2020. The situation in this area, therefore, rather grim across the world, including India.

Cancer treatment cost in India is one of the highest in the world:

Anticancer drugs are generally expensive. As stated in a related article, published in the Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology on March 14, 2017, in the United States, a novel anticancer drug routinely costs more than US$ 100,000 per year of treatment. When adjusted for per capita spending power, these lifesaving medicines become most unaffordable in economically developing nations, such as India and China. Not only are their launch prices high and fast rising, but these also often escalate during the respective patent exclusivity period.

That in terms of the ability to pay for drugs, cancer drugs are most affordable in Australia and least affordable in India and China, was established in one of the largest research study presented at the 2016 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. Moreover, even in those cases where cancer could be detected early, about half the patients in India are compelled to skip the treatment for high drug cost, highlights another article.

Interestingly, the concerned drug manufacturers seldom, if at all, justify such astronomical drug prices and subsequent price increases well supported by some rational factors, such as, the extent of benefit patients are likely to derive, the novelty of the agents, or detailed spending on research and development, the above paper states.

The increasing trend of price escalation of cancer drugs harms many patients, often directly, through increased out-of-pocket expenses, which reduce levels of patient compliance, or drive thousands of cancer patients skipping the drug treatment, altogether. Consequently, it also harms the society by imposing cumulative price burdens on many patients that are unsustainable.

Despite high cost, annual global spending on anticancer drugs has already exceeded US$100 billion, and is predicted to reach US$150 billion by 2020. In India too, oncology is a leading therapeutic segment, which reached a turnover of Rs. 2,000 Crore (around US$ 320 million) in 2013 and is expected to grow to Rs. 3,831 crore (around US$ 615 million) by the end of 2017, according to a report of Frost and Sullivan.

The reason for high drug price:

The real reason for the high cost of cancer drugs, just as many other life-saving medicines, is quite challenging to fathom. Many attribute its reason to unsustainable R&D models of the global pharma companies, in general.

For example, “the spiraling cost of new drugs mandates a fundamentally different approach to keep lifesaving therapies affordable for cancer patients” – argued an article titled, “How Much Longer Will We Put Up With US$ 100,000 Cancer Drugs?”, published by Elsevier Inc. In the same context, another article titled “Making Cancer Treatment More Affordable”, published in the ‘Rare Disease Report’ on Feb 09, 2017, reiterated that the current R&D model needs to change, as the cost of many such treatments is higher than the cost of an average person’s house in the United States.

Nonetheless, the drug manufacturers answer this difficult question with ease and promptness, citing that the cost of innovation to bring these drugs through a complex research and development (R&D) process to the market, isn’t just very high, but is also increasing at a rapid pace.

Pharma R&D cost:

An analysis by the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development, published in the Journal of Health Economics in March, 2016 pegged the average cost to develop and gain marketing approval for a new drug at US$ 2.558 billion. It also said that the total cost of innovation of a new drug and bringing it to market, has increased more than double from US$ 1.22 billion in 2003 to US$ 2.6 billion in 2014. Although these numbers are being vehemently challenged in several credible journals and by the international media, many global pharma majors justify the high new drug prices

by highlighting that developing a new molecule takes an enormous amount of time of 12 to 14 years, lots of financial resources and huge efforts.

On the other hand, an article titled, “Does it really cost US$ 2.6 billion to develop a new drug?”, published in The Washington Post on November 18, 2014 observed that: ‘The never-ending debate about what drugs should cost is in part driven by the fact that no one seems to know what it actually costs to develop one.”

But, why is the decline in the R&D productivity trend?

According to a 2014 review article titled, “Recent Advances in Drug Repositioning for the Discovery of New Anticancer Drugs”, published in the International Journal of Biological Sciences, while the total R&D expenditure for drug discovery worldwide increased 10 times since 1975 (US$ 4 billion) to 2009 (US$ 40 billion), the number of NMEs approved has remained largely flat (26 new drugs approved in 1976 and 27 new drugs approved in 2013). The average time required for drug discovery to market launch has also increased over time in the US and in the EU countries from 9.7 years during 1990s, to 13.9 years from 2000 onwards.

Be that as it may, the bottom-line is regardless of tremendous advancement in biological science, technology and analytics, especially in the new millennium, coupled with increasing investments in pharma R&D, the total number of NMEs that has reached the market hasn’t shown commensurate increase.

One of my articles published in this blog titled, “How Expensive Is Drug Innovation?” found an echo of the same in a globally reputed journal. This study, published by the BMJ on May 2016, titled “Propaganda or the cost of innovation? Challenging the high price of new drugs”, expressed deep concern on the rising prices of new medicines. It reiterated that this trend is set to overwhelm health systems around the world.

Need for an alternative R&D strategy:

The hurdles in discovering and developing new drugs call for alternative approaches, particularly for life threatening diseases, such as cancer. I reckon, it’s about time to scale-up a viable alternative strategy to bring down the R&D cost of new drugs, improve the success rate of clinical development, reduce a decade long ‘mind to market’ timeframe for an innovative drug or a treatment, and of course, the mind blogging cost of the entire process, as asserted in the above report from the Tufts Center.

One such alternative strategy could well be: ‘Drug Repurposing’

Drug Repurposing:

As defined by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, ‘drug repurposing’ “generally refers to studying drugs that are already approved to treat one disease or condition to see if they are safe and effective for treating other diseases”.

As many molecules, with well-documented records on their pharmacology and toxicity profile, have been already formulated and undergone large clinical trials on humans, repurposing those drugs building upon the available documents and experiences for fresh clinical trials in different disease conditions, would hasten the regulatory review process for marketing approval, and at a much lesser cost.

I shall quote here just two such examples of ‘drug repurposing’ from well-known molecules, as follows:

  • Sildenafil (Viagra): The blockbuster drug that was launched by Pfizer in 1998 for the treatment of erectile dysfunctions was originally developed for the treatment of coronary artery disease by the same company in 1980s.
  • Thalidomide: Originally designed and developed by a German pharmaceutical company called Grünenthal in Stolberg as a treatment for morning sickness in 1957, but was withdrawn in 1961 from the market because it caused birth defects. The same molecule was reintroduced in 1998 as a ‘repurposed drug’ to effectively treat patients with erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) – a complication of leprosy, and multiple myeloma – a type of cancer.

I had given many more examples of ‘drug repurposing’ in one of my earlier articles published in this blog.

Repurposing drugs for cancer:

The above-mentioned review article of International Journal of Biological Sciences 2014 clearly noted: “Drug repositioning has attracted particular attention from the communities engaged in anticancer drug discovery due to the combination of great demand for new anticancer drugs and the availability of a wide variety of cell and target-based screening assays. With the successful clinical introduction of a number of non-cancer drugs for cancer treatment, ‘drug repurposing’ now became a powerful alternative strategy to discover and develop novel anticancer drug candidates from the existing drug space.”

The following are some recent successful examples of ‘drug repurposing’ for anticancer drug discovery from non-cancer drugs, which are mostly under Phase I to II clinical trials:

Drug Original treatment Clinical status for cancer treatment
Itraconazole Fungal infections Phase I and II
Nelfinavir HIV infections Phase I and II
Digoxin Cardiac diseases Phase I and II
Nitroxoline Urinary Tract Infections Preclinical
Riluzole Amyotropic lateral sclerosis Phase I and II
Disulfram Chronic alcoholism Phase I and II

‘Drug repurposing’ market:

A January 2016 report by BCC Research estimates that the global market for drug repurposing will grow from nearly US$ 24.4 billion in 2015 to nearly US$ 31.3 billion by 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1 percent for the period of 2015-2020.

Expressing concern just not enough:

There are enough examples available across the world regarding stakeholders’ expression of great concern on this issue, with the buzz of such protests getting progressively shriller.

However, in India, high prices of cancer drugs do not seem to be a great issue with the medical profession, just yet, notwithstanding some sporadic steps taken by the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) to allay the economic burden of cancer patients to some extent. Encouragingly, the top cancer specialists of the American Society of Clinical Oncology are reportedly working out a framework for rating and selecting cancer drugs not only for their benefits and side effects, but prices as well.

In a 2015 paper, a group of cancer specialists from Mayo Clinic also articulated, that the oft-repeated arguments of price controls stifle innovation are not good enough to justify unusually high prices of cancer drugs. Their solution for this problem includes value-based pricing and NICE like body of the United Kingdom. An interesting video clip from Mayo Clinic justifies the argument.

All this can at best be epitomized as so far so good, and may help increase the public awareness level on this subject. However, the moot point remains: Has anything significantly changed on the ground, on a permanent basis, by mere expression of such concerns?

Conclusion:

This discussion may provoke many to go back to the square number one, making the ongoing raging debate on Innovation, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and Public Health Interest to gather more steam, but the core concern continues to remain unresolved.

I hasten to add that all such concerns, including strong protests, may no doubt create some temporary pressure on drug manufacturers, but they are experienced enough to navigate through such issues, as they have been doing, so far. However, for making new cancer drugs cost-effective for a vast population of patients, coming out of the current strategic mold of pharma research and development would be necessary. Grant of Compulsory License (CL), or the expectation of the local drug manufacturers for a Voluntary License (VL) of new cancer drugs, can’t be a routine process either, as it appears unrealistic to me, for various reasons.

I have discussed in this article just one alternative R&D strategy in this area, and that is Drug Repurposing (DR). There could be several others. DR is reportedly gaining increasing focus, as it represents a smart way to exploit new molecular targets of a known non-oncological drug for a new therapeutic applications in oncology. Be that as it may, pharma companies and the academia must agree to sail on the same boat together having a common goal to make new cancer drugs cost-effective for majority of cancer patients struggling hard, for life.

I would conclude this article quoting the President and Chief Science Officer of Illinois-based Cures Within Reach who said: “What I like about drug repurposing is that it can solve two issues: improved health-care impact and reduced health-care cost – That’s a big driver for us.”

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

‘Repurposing’ Older Drugs: Has The Process Started Rolling?

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On October 22, 2015, BBC News reported, “The world’s largest clinical trial to examine whether aspirin can prevent cancers returning has begun in the United Kingdom (UK).”

About 11,000 people, who have had early bowel, breast, prostate, stomach and esophageal cancer will be involved in this study with one tablet a day dosage for five years. This trial is being funded by ‘The Charity Cancer Research, UK’ and ‘The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).’

The scientists feel, if it works, this ‘repurposing’ of an older and much-known drug would be a “game-changing” one. It would then be able to provide a cheap and effective alternative to prevent recurrence of cancer to a large number of cancer survivals. Interestingly, no global pharma players are involved in this cancer prevention research, as yet. 

Aspirin was developed by Bayer way back in 1897 for pain and inflammation. Thereafter, the scientists found a ‘repurpose’ in its use as an anti-platelet drug for treating and preventing heart attacks and strokes.

Similarly, the anti-inflammatory drug Ibuprofen, which was developed by Boots in the 1960s for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, is now showing promises that it can help protect against Parkinson’s disease.

Again, a number of studies claim that statins, a cholesterol-reducing drug, can help prevent Alzheimer’s Disease, resulting in low levels of beta-amyloid. Further research needs to be done in this area, as this finding has not been universally accepted, just yet.

All such commendable initiatives, throw open a relevant question for debate: ‘Can the existing drugs be re-examined in a systematic manner to discover their other possible radically new usages at a much lesser treatment costs to patients?’

In my view, available data emphatically prompts the answer ‘Yes’ and I shall deliberate on on that in this article.

‘Repurposing’ older drugs:

The Oxford Dictionary meaning of ‘repurpose’ is: ‘Adapt for use in a different purpose.’

Accordingly, the process of discovering new usages of older drugs is often called by many scientists as ‘repurposing’.   

Currently, we come across various articles reporting a number of such new initiatives. This process is safer, much less expensive and takes much lesser time.

These laudable R&D initiatives needs encouragement from all stakeholders, especially from the Government. Given proper focus and attractive financial and other incentives, more and more players are expected to get attracted to a different genre of innovation. It is a whole new ball game of discovering new purposes of old and cheaper drugs with known and well-documented long term safety profile.

Some old drugs with ‘new purpose’: 

The following table gives an example of some well known older drugs, for which fresh R&D initiatives discovered their new purpose of treatment, at a much cheaper cost: 

Drug Old Indication New purpose
Amantadine Influenza Parkinson’s Disease
Amphotericin Antifungal Leishmaniasis
Aspirin Inflammation, pain Antiplatelet
Bromocriptine Parkinson’s disease Diabetes mellitus
Bupropion Depression Smoking cessation
Colchicine Gout Recurrent pericarditis
Methotrexate Cancer Psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis

(Source: Indian Journal of Applied Research, Volume: 4, Issue: 8, August 2014)  

A clarion call to join this movement:

The well-known researcher, Dr. Francis S. Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in a TED talk (video) strongly argued in favor of ‘translational research’ to produce better drugs, faster. To make this process to work successfully Francis Collins hopes to encourage global pharmaceutical companies to open up their stashes of drugs that have already passed safety tests, but that failed to successfully treat their targeted disease. 

He wants to study, how drugs approved for one disease could successfully treat another or more ailments and also gave examples of the following drugs, which I am quoting below, as such:

  • Raloxifene: The FDA approved Raloxifene to reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women in 2007. It was initially developed to treat osteoporosis.
    .
  • Thalidomide: This drug started out as a sedative in the late fifties, and soon doctors were infamously prescribing it to prevent nausea in pregnant women. It later caused thousands of severe birth defects, most notably phocomelia, which results in malformed arms and legs. In 1998, thalidomide found a new use as a treatment for leprosy and in 2006 it was approved for multiple myeloma, a bone marrow cancer.
    .
  • Tamoxifen: This hormone therapy treats metastatic breast cancers, or those that have spread to other parts of the body, in both women and men, and it was originally approved in 1977. Thirty years later, researchers discovered that it also helps people with bipolar disorder by blocking the enzyme PKC, which goes into overdrive during the manic phase of the disorder.
    .
  • Rapamycin: This antibiotic, also called sirolimus, was first discovered in bacteria-laced soil from Easter Island in the seventies, and the FDA approved it in 1999 to prevent organ transplant rejection. Since then, researchers have found it effective in treating not one but two diseases: Autoimmune Lymphoproliferative Syndrome (ALPS), in which the body produces too many immune cells called lymphocytes, and lymphangioleiomyomatosis, a rare lung disease.
    .
  • Lomitapide: Intended to lower cholesterol and triglycerides, the FDA approved this drug to treat a rare genetic disorder that causes severe cholesterol problems called homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia last December.
    .
  • Pentostatin: This drug was created as a chemotherapy for specific types of leukemia. It was tested first in T-cell-related leukemias, which didn’t respond to the drug. But later NIH’s National Cancer Institute discovered that the drug was successful in treating a rare leukemia that is B-cell related, called Hairy Cell Leukemia.
    .
  • Sodium nitrite: This salt was first developed as an antidote to cyanide poisoning and, unrelated to medicine, it’s also used to cure meat. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute is currently recruiting participants for a sodium nitrite clinical trial, in which the drug will be tested as a treatment for the chronic leg ulcers associated with sickle cell and other blood disorders.
  • Zidovudine (AZT): The first antiviral approved for HIV/AIDS in 1987.
  • Farnesyltransferase inhibitor (FTI): This was used to successfully treat children with the rapid-aging disease Progeria in a 2012 clinical trial.

“None of these drugs could have been developed without collaborations between drug developers and researchers with new ideas about applications, based on molecular insights about disease,” Dr. Collins said.

The examples that I have given, so far, on ‘repurposing’ older drugs are not exhaustive, in any way, there are more such examples coming up almost regularly.

The key benefits: 

The key benefits of ‘repurposing’ older drugs may be summarized as follows:

  • Ready availability of the starting compound
  • Previously generated relevant R&D data may be used for submission to drug regulators
  • Makes clinical research more time-efficient and cost-effective
  • Possibility of much quicker market launch

Slowly gaining steam: 

On November 27, 2012, ‘The Guardian’ reported that a number of university-based spin-outs and small biotech companies are being set up in the United States to find new purpose for old drugs. They express interest especially, on those drugs, which were shelved as they did not match the desired efficacy requirements, though showed a good overall safety profile.

Such organizations, take advantage of the declining cost of screening, with some compound libraries, such as, the Johns Hopkins library, which includes 3,500 drugs, available for screening at a small charge, the report highlighted.

Quoting a specialist, the report stated, “Existing drugs have been shown to be safe in patients, so if these drugs could be found to work for other diseases, then this would drastically reduce drug development costs and risks. Of 30,000 drugs in the world, 25,000 are ex-patent – it’s a free-for-all.”

‘Repurposing’ may not attract many pharma players, Government should step in:

Notwithstanding the clarion call of Dr. Francis Collins to global pharma players for their active participation in such projects, I reckon, the positive response may not be too many, because of various reasons.

Although, ‘repurposed’ drugs offer similar or even greater value to patients than any comparable ‘me-too’ New Chemical/Molecular Entity (NCE/NME), there may not possibly be any scope here for ‘Obscene Pricing’, such as ‘Sovaldi’ and many others, as some experts feel. And that’s the reality.

Moreover, new usages of the same old molecule, in all probability, may not get any fresh Intellectual Property (IP) protection in India, either.

Hence, considering the health interest of patients, in general, the Government should assume the role of ‘prime mover’, primarily to set the ball of ‘repurposing of older drugs’ rolling in India. This has already started happening in some of the developed countries of the world, which I shall dwell upon here.

Funding clinical development for ‘repurposing’:

Let me give a couple of examples of funding such admirable initiatives in two different countries.

I have already mentioned above that the clinical development for ‘repurposing’ Aspirin in the prevention of cancer, is being funded by the charity Cancer Research UK and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).

In a similar initiative, National Institutes for Health (NIH) of the United States, launched the ‘National Center for Advancing Transnational Sciences (NCATS), in May 2012.

New Therapeutic Uses program of NCATS helps to identify new uses for drugs that have undergone significant research and development by the pharma industry, including safety testing in humans. NIH claims that ‘using drugs that already have cleared several key steps in the development process gives scientists nationwide a strong starting point to contribute their unique expertise and accelerate the pace of therapeutics development.’

By pairing researchers with a selection of specific drugs, NCATS program tests ideas for new therapeutic uses, ultimately identifying promising new treatments for patients. Funding for this purpose is done by NCATS through NIH. For example, In July 2015, NCATS planned a funding of around US$3 million to support four academic research groups to test a selection of drugs for new therapeutic uses, as follows:

  • Type 2 diabetes
  • Glioblastoma (one of the most aggressive brain tumors in adults)
  • Acute myeloid leukemia (an aggressive blood cancer)
  • Chagas disease (a neglected tropical disease that causes heart, digestive and neurological problems)

According to NIH, each award recipient will test a selected drug for its effectiveness against a previously unexplored disease or condition. The industry partners for these projects are AstraZeneca and Sanofi.

Can it be done in India?

Of course yes, provided the Government considers health care as one its priority focus areas with commensurate resource deployment of all kinds for the same.

As things stand today, India still remains beyond any visibility to give a tangible shape to this specific concept of ‘repurposing’ of older drugs. There does not seem to be any other valid reason why similar model of funding can’t be followed locally too, for this purpose.

The nodal agency to spearhead such initiatives, and to create appropriate groundswell to help gain a critical mass, may well be the ‘Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR)’ or any other body that the Government decides in consultation with domain experts, together with reasonable financial incentives for commercialization of new usages at an affordable cost.

Conclusion:

As we all know, many people, across the world, are currently going through the pain of seeing their loved ones suffer, and even die, from serious ailments, the treatments of which either do not exist or when exist, the therapy costs may be out of reach of a vast majority of patients. In tandem, the R&D pipeline of the global pharma industry is gradually drying up.

In a situation like this, drug ‘repurposing’ that is directed towards meeting unmet medical needs of patients of all types irrespective of financial status, needs to be increasingly encouraged and pursued as a critical solution to this growing problem.

The good news is that some global pharma majors, though very few in number, have now expressed their intention to salvage their failed molecules and are open to help explore whether such drugs may work in other disease conditions.

India seems to be still miles away from this space, and a bit directionless too. That said, the country is scientifically quite capable of making up the lost ground in this area, provided the Government decides so, garnering requisite wherewithal.

Thus, in my view, the process of ‘repurposing’ older drugs has already started rolling in some major countries of the world, in a well structured manner with requisite funding in place. Tangible outcomes are already noticeable today, with some examples quoted in this article.

As Dr. Francis Collins said, collaborations between drug developers and researchers with new ideas about applications, based on molecular insights about disease are critical in the way forward to achieve this cherished goal in a sustainable manner.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.