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Cacophony Over Coronavirus Lockdown

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Currently, the entire India is trying hard to comply with the 21-day lockdown of the country, as communicated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the nation at 8 pm on March 24, 2020. The very next day,  while addressing his parliamentary constituency of Varanasi via video, he said, “the Mahabharata war was won in 18 days but this war against Coronavirus will take 21 days.”

After this announcement most people’s life, as I myself can feel it, has changed as never before in the past. Unlike the West, in India most of us are too much dependent on domestic help, for routine chores of the family. How difficult these are, at least, I never experienced in the past. Will life, in its entirety, ever be the same gain?

In addition, shortages of most of the essential items were felt everywhere, be these vegetables, grocery items or medicines. Leave aside, the non-essential necessities. But, the bottom-line is, the lockdown has to be followed. There isn’t any other effective alternative to protect ourselves, those working for us to make our lives easier and comfortable, our respective neighborhood and thereby our country. In its midst, a cacophony over this decision is palpable, whatever may be the reason. Many are from highly credible sources.

Exploring various facets of the cacophony, this article will dwell on the question that will arise at the moment of truth – on or after April 15, 2020: What happened after 21-day lockdown of the entire nation. I shall try to focus on this question with the most relevant facts.

The Government’s rationale behind 3 weeks lockdown:

As explained by the Prime Minister and later by several Indian experts, the rationale behind the 21-day lockdown will include primarily the following:

  • The incubation period of Covid19 is around 5 to 14 days. This is also the potential transmission period of the microbe. Effective social distancing of all, may contain or even stop its spread.
  • As all viruses can sustain or exist only by replicating, they are completely dependent on a host cell for survival and can’t reproduce outside a cell. Social distancing may help in this area, as well.
  • Since, the world doesn’t have any vaccine for Covid19, as yet, prevention alternatives are limited.

Cacophony includes: Is complete national lockdown the only answer?

Several highly credible voices are asking: Is the complete lockdown of the nation the only answer? For example, Professor Vikram Patel at Harvard Medical School, wondered about the relevance of national lockdown in his article of March 26, 2020. He wrote, without any widespread community transmission of the disease, the Government might have staved off the worst without a sledge-hammer approach of national lockdown, which no country at India’s stage of the epidemic has imposed.

Elaborating the alternative approach, he suggested to intensify case finding approach through testing and contact tracing, quarantining those who are infected, physical distancing by everyone, graded travel restrictions, preparing the health system to cater to those who may need intensive care and protect health care workers. Even locking-down limited populations with community transmission will be prudent. When properly implemented these steps ‘could have stopped the epidemic in its tracks.’ Citing examples, he wrote, many of our Asian neighbors have done it successfully. Even China, the original epicenter of the epidemic, did not lock down the entire country.

According to other reports, as well, the countries, such as, Singapore, Germany, Turkey, Taiwan and China, have so far handled Covid19 much better than other countries in containing the pandemic. They all ‘refrained from imposing a complete, nationwide curfew-like lockdown.’ China did bring only the Hubei province under complete lockdown, but not the whole country. Scientists expect that Covid19 will exist despite lockdown – till an effective vaccine is developed and made available for all.

Are our doctors adequately protected against Covid19?

Today, even the doctors and other health care workers remain extremely vulnerable to the disease.  Even in AIIMS doctors, reportedly, are using masks and sanitizers made by themselves or buying them. There is already a shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), which doctors are worried about. PPE includes face masks, eye shield, shoe cover, gown and gloves. These can be used for only five or six hours before having to discard them. Even N-95 face masks cannot be used for more than a day or two. And there is an elaborate protocol in place, as well, on how to dispose them. As the report said, doctors fighting Covid19 asked: ‘Not just claps, give us personal protective gear.’

Further, the Huffpost article of March 20, 2020 had emphasized with details: “Staying home can be hard, but it’s not even an option for the health care workers and scientists on the front lines of our global effort to thwart the COVID-19 pandemic. They have to arm themselves to face potentially infected patients and deadly viruses every day.” This gets vindicated by a March 26, 2020 report. It brought to our notice that 900 people have been quarantined after a Delhi Doctor unprotected by PPE tests COVID19 positive.

Another news article reported: “A day after the entire nation flocked to their balconies to clap for the heroes in the medical field, who are working relentlessly to arrest the Coronavirus pandemic, doctors in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh were greeted with humiliation and assault.”

Cacophony expands to religious solutions and explanations:

With the panic on Coronavirus spreading, the cacophony also includes religious solutions to the disease. For example, as reported by Reuters on March 14, 2020, ‘Hindu group offers cow urine in a bid to ward off Coronavirus.’ Another YouTube video also shows: ‘Hindu activists in India drink cow urine to ‘protect’ themselves from Coronavirus.’ According to many there are many takers of such concepts, whether one likes it or not.

Intriguingly, a top film star with 40.7 million twitter followers twitted on March 22, justifying public clapping at 5 pm during ‘Janata curfew’ and attributing a bizarre reason to it: ‘clapping vibrations destroy virus potency,’ which he later deleted against strong adverse comment from the scientific community. However, a number of, apparently responsible people, a few of whom are also known to me, often comment – such things can happen and do happen in a vast country like India. It isn’t a big deal. The cacophony goes on.

Be that as it may, regardless of enthusiastic public clapping and availability of cow-urine based solutions – fighting deadly Covid19 of potentially infected patients – without PPE, I reckon, is quite akin to asking a professional army to fight a tough battle without having adequate battle-gear.

Level of India’s preparedness just before national lockdown:

To ascertain this, leaving aside other critical areas, such as, quarantine and isolation facilities, let me cite a few examples related to PPE and testing kits. A news that came just a day before the national lockdown, reported a Government official commenting on a textile material used for masks and other PPEs: “Currently, demand is for 8 lakh bodysuits and N95 masks of the material. Orders for these have been placed.”

However, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), reportedly, banned the export of textile material for masks and coveralls, under the Foreign Trade (Development) and Regulation Act, just recently. Interestingly, as Reuters reported on March 28, 2020, ‘India needs at least 38 million masks and 6.2 million pieces of personal protective equipment as it confronts the spread of Coronavirus.”

Further, when testing is the only acid test to diagnose Covide19 infection – as on March 19, 2020, India, reportedly, had tested 14,175 people in 72 state-run labs, which is regarded as one of the lowest testing rates in the world. This is because: India has limited testing facilities. Thus, only those people who have been in touch with an infected person or those who have travelled to high-risk countries, or health workers managing patients with severe respiratory disease and developing Covid-19 symptoms are eligible for testing. Whereas, according to W.H.O, “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded”.

However, after declaration of the national lockdown, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on March 25, 2020, reportedly, invited quotations from manufacturers for supply of 1 million kits to test patients suspected of suffering from COVID-19. After getting a glimpse of the cacophony over the national lockdown for Coronavirus supported by a few examples, let us see what steps the W.H.O advises for all countries to follow in this pandemic. 

The steps W.H.O recommends following:

On March 16, 2020, the Director General (DG) of the World Health Organization (W.H.O) said: “We have a simple message to all countries – test, test, test.” On that day, observing that more cases and deaths have been reported in the rest of the world than in China, as compared to the past week, the DG elaborated the following:

  • Although, there has been a rapid escalation in social distancing measures, like closing schools and cancelling sporting events and other gatherings, but, not an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing – which is the backbone of the response.
  • Social distancing measures can help reduce transmission and enable health systems to cope with. Handwashing and coughing into your elbow can also reduce the risk for yourself and others. But on their own, they are not enough to extinguish this pandemic. It’s the combination that makes the difference. Thus, all countries must take a comprehensive approach.
  • The most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected. We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test. Test every suspected case.
  • If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms, and test those people too. Every day, more tests are being produced to meet the global demand.

Curiously, even three months after the massive outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic in China, India doesn’t seem to have procured enough PPEs for the doctors and testing kits to diagnose the disease. Besides, lack of advance preparation to create adequate quarantine and isolation facilities in the country make the situation even more complex to effectively deal with.

Other challenges and frugal options:

With eight doctors per 10,000 people in India, compared to 41 in Italy and 71 in Korea and one state-run hospital for more than 55,000 people, the general population has developed a much avoidable habit, over a period of time. It is quite likely, even in the event of getting flu-like symptoms, the majority may not go to doctors. Instead, may try home remedies or go to a retail chemist for drugs. Some may even resort to self-medication, until a full-blown disease surfaces, complicating the situation further.

Hence, only two options are left. One – for each individual to take care of personal hygiene and physical distancing, and second – for the Government to announce a national lockdown, through its second sudden and late evening order, effective midnight of the same day. This took almost everybody by surprise and possibly creating a widespread panic – not so much about the disease – at least initially, but more for regular availability of essential daily necessities – food and for many people – medicines, besides means for daily living of scores of families. This was further fueled by the gross lack of empathy by the law enforcers.

Conclusion:

As reported, if Covid19 continues to spread at its current pace, India could face between around 100,000 and 1.3 million confirmed cases of the disease caused by the new Coronavirus by mid-May, according to a team of scientists based mainly in the United States. It’s important to note that with just 6.8 tests per million, one of the lowest rates in the world, India has been criticized for not testing enough.

Moreover, besides panic and economic fallout of the disease, the long-term impact that Covid19 may have on the mental health of different people, for various reasons, will also need to be ascertained. As Professor Vikram Patel of Harvard Medical School said in his above article, ‘the deliverable is not how many people clanged pots and pans’ or how many obediently followed the Prime Minister’s advice of staying indoors. “The deliverable is how many people got tested, how many doctors have protective gear, how many ventilators the government managed to manufacture or buy overnight.” Another deliverable is isolation centers, temporary hospitals in indoor stadia and quarantine facilities that are fit for human beings, he added.

On November 24, 2020 – when 21-day national lockdown commenced, the total number of confirmed cases in the country were reported as 564. Just at the beginning of the 5th day of the lockdown on March 29, 2020, as I write this piece, as many as 1032 people have been tested positive for Covid19 with 28 deaths. Against the above backdrop, some critical points that surfaced while exploring the cacophony over the national lockdown, can possibly be wished away only at one’s own peril.

Nevertheless, under the prevailing circumstances, there was no other alternative for the Government, but to announce immediate national lockdown, which all should abide by, religiously. However, whether Coronavirus will be won in India with 21-day of national lockdown – just three days more of what the Mahabharata war took, as the Prime Minister expects, will start revealing from April 15, 20120 – as the moment of truth arrives.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Pharma’s Late Realization

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Technology, by and large, is impacting almost every part of our life. Interestingly, some of these, like mobile phones and desktop computers, found their initial uses, mostly as trendy status symbols of relatively rich and high ranking corporate honchos, before getting merged as essential tools in our everyday life, as it were.

Today’s digital world empowers people to virtually doing anything – literally, such as getting an online education, communicating with people – both in audio and video format, getting any routine medical test or household work done, transferring money, making any bill or other payments, buying travel-theater-concert tickets, or ordering any item online from home or wherever one chooses to, besides umpteen number of other things. A large global population now spends more time on communication in the virtual world, than face to face communication with physical presence.

Similarly, application of technology, especially digital, has radically transformed for the better, the way several companies in many industries have rewritten their respective playbooks of critical business processes. It starts from the generation credible data of humongous volume, critical analysis of those before initiation of the planning process, spanning across the endpoint of making consumers pay for the products or services willingly, while achieving both financial and non-financial business goals. In tandem, available cutting edge digital technology is being leveraged by these companies for developing both new products and processes, including the rejuvenation of many stagnating businesses.

Whether the pharma industry, as well, has started leveraging digital technology optimally or not, was discussed in the A.T. Kearney Report – “New Medicine for a New World, Time for Pharma to Dive into Digital”. It aptly captured the overall situation in this area for pharma a few years ago, by saying: ‘Pharma’s customers increasingly live and interact in a digital world. The industry has been dipping a toe in the digital waters, but now it’s time to take the plunge.’

In today’s article, I shall discuss on the current-status in this area, as some respected pharma veterans, still nurturing ‘traditional thought pattern’, keep displaying skepticism in this area, though indirectly. Nevertheless, directly they seem to keep their feet in two boats, probably for obvious reasons.

A disruptive change that can’t be ignored:

It’s a reality that we now live in a digital world. The speed of which is fast gaining momentum, and that too as a critical disruptive change agent. Interestingly, this is happening despite the existence of a digital divide, which I discussed in one of my previous articles.

That this trend is so recent has also been underscored by the above A.T. Kearney Report. It reemphasized, the way we interact has changed more in the past 10 years than in the previous 50, and this change is reshaping the society itself. It’s hard to believe that apps, social media, and everything that surrounds them date back to no earlier than 2007. With the expansion of interconnected Internet-enabled devices, the boundaries between the real and the virtual are increasingly getting more obscure.

When it comes to pharma industry, as various research studies highlight, an intriguing cautious approach for embracing digital prevails, unlike many other industrial sectors. This is despite facing numerous challenges in navigating through external business environment, and meeting stakeholders’ changing expectations.

“But the industry has now reached a tipping point: it has to put an end to hiding behind the challenges of engaging with its stakeholders digitally and stop treating digital as an add-on to existing operations. Rather, it needs to embrace a digital first engagement model with fundamental consequences for its organization and capabilities,” suggests the above A.T. Kearney report.

This fast-evolving disruptive change, I reckon, can only be ignored at one’s own peril. Nonetheless, the good news is, some pharma players have now slowly but surely, started embracing digital to transform their business processes, in search of excellence.

‘Digital India’ initiative to facilitate the process:

Recognizing the increasing importance of digital even across the public space, on July 2, 2015, ‘Digital India’ campaign was launched by the Government of India. This is intended to ensure the availability of public services for all, by making everybody in the country digitally-empowered. The campaign is expected to make India a leader in digitally delivering health, education and banking services, according to information released by the government.

It is generally expected that the creation of a robust digital ecosystem within the country, would facilitate the Indian pharma players, as well, while leveraging this state of the art technology for a quantum leap in business productivity.

The current status – Global pharma industry:

The July 11, 2017 article titled, “Pharma turns to big data to gauge care and pricing”, appeared in the Financial Times, highlighted an interesting point. It described, how the global pharma industry, which has been slow in responding to the fast-evolving digital environment, is now realizing its critical importance. This reckoning gets more strengthened, as it confronts tough external challenges, such as pricing pressures, huge volume of patient data, and more empowered consumers. The article also points out, how digitization has started changing the way pharma players used to interact with doctors, patients and other important stakeholders.

The seriousness in approach of several global pharma majors in leveraging digital technology, to take a quantum leap in the business productivity, is fast increasing. It is evident from the leading drug makers seeking out different skills and personality traits in employees to lead such digital transformation.

Moving towards this direction, Germany based Merck appointed its first chief digital officer, last year. The person holds a degree in biomedical engineering, with a tech background. Following a somewhat different approach, Boehringer Ingelheim – Europe’s biggest private pharma player, hired a new Chief Financial Officer from Lufthansa, who oversees a new digital “lab”, recruiting data specialists and software developers.

Similarly, Swiss drug major – Novartis, also appointed its global head of digital business development and licensing. The head of Human Resources of the company has reportedly expressed, “We’re already seeing how real-time data capture can help analyze patient populations and demographics, to make it easier to recruit patients for clinical trials, and how real-time data-capture devices, like connected sensors and patient engagement apps, are helping to create remote clinical trials that aren’t site-dependent.”

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) too, reportedly employs more than 50 people to run webinars with physicians – a “multichannel media team” that did not exist five years ago. It has also begun hiring astrophysicists to work in research and development, keen to deploy their ability to visualize huge data sets. According to GSK, these qualities are especially important as the company seeks to use artificial intelligence to help spot patterns and connections amid a mass of information.

That said, global pharma industry still has a considerable distance to cover before it exploits digital technology as successfully and automatically as many other sectors, the article concludes.

The current status – Indian pharma industry:

Veeva Systems Inc.– a leader in the cloud based software for the global life sciences industry, has well captured in a recent report the current status of the Indian pharma industry on the adaptation of digital technology in business.

The report titled ‘The Veeva 2016 Industry Survey: Digital in Indian Pharma’ focuses on the current state of application of digital technology in the business processes of pharma companies in the country. The survey represents the views of respondents from commercial excellence, marketing, sales and IT at domestic and multinational pharmaceutical companies operating in India.

It highlighted, though the pharma companies have remained mostly Rep centric, several of them now realize the importance of increasing focus on customer engagement. Moreover, while the desired access to important physicians has gone down, expectations of the Health Care Professionals (HCPs) have increased, significantly. Alongside, the Government is bringing in more regulations, besides price controls.

The report also captures, though digital technology is slowly making way in the pharma marketing tool kit, it has been more an incremental effort to various Sales Force Excellence projects of the respective companies.

The key findings of the study are as follows:

  • Nearly two-thirds of respondents agree digital is yet to become a part of their overall pharma DNA, and one-third believe digital is well integrated within their organization.
  • While companies have initiated digital activities in various silos, one-third of the respondents believe these are tactical in nature, rather than strategic.
  • 21 percent of respondents feel digital should be driven by management, along with 24 percent voting for Digital Marketing. However, with customer relationship at the core of business activities, 31 believe Sales Force and Commercial Excellence are also responsible for the transition.
  • With integrated digital strategy, pharma companies aim to increase customer touch points through multichannel (93 percent) and improve customer engagement (79 percent). The other benefits of integrated approach are a greater competitive advantage, reduce execution gaps, improve content creation and delivery, and enrich customer data.
  • 59 percent of the respondents believe the industry will see a digital transformation in the next 1-3 years.
  • 69 percent of survey respondents agree it’s time for Indian pharma to think about digital strategically.

The top two challenges that pharma companies face in institutionalizing digital were identified as

  • Organizational readiness
  • Lack of digital as a strategy

This latest India specific survey brings to the fore that pharma players will have to move over from patching up old systems or building incremental solutions. They need to realize that digital opportunity is not an incremental approach.

Keeping this in perspective, the study suggests that pharma companies’ approach to digital needs to change substantially in India. This is essential to truly leverage the power of digital that will open the new possibilities to more meaningfully engage, communicate, and be relevant to all the stakeholders for business success.

The traditional face to face “visits” are just not enough for desired productivity, and deriving an adequate return on investments. On the contrary, a time has come to critically evaluate whether various Sales Force Excellence programs are  producing increasingly diminishing rate of return on investments, Therefore, this communication process ought to be augmented with innovative digital interventions, for the reasons explained earlier.

With a few organizations leading the way, digital is expected to become a mainstream conversation, ultimately. Thus, Indian pharma players need to think about digital from a long-term perspective, as opposed to the current way of setting short term goals, which may actually become barriers in your digital success, as the survey concludes.

Conclusion:

Pharmaceutical industry, in general, is yet to keep pace with many other sectors, first in acknowledging the game changing power of digital technology, and then adopting it with a crafty application of mind. Nevertheless, the good news is, some drug companies, especially in the global arena, have increased their focus in this area, as elaborated above.

In India, as the recent survey indicates, over 66 percent of respondents admit that digital is yet to become a part of the overall pharma DNA, while the remaining ones believe that digital is well integrated within their organization. Interestingly, even in that group, many would require moving over from patching up old systems or building incremental solutions. It is important for them to realize, sooner, that digital opportunity is not an incremental approach.

‘Digital India’ campaign of the incumbent Government, assures fast strengthening of desirable digital ecosystem in the country. Expected consequential strong wind on the sail must be made use of, effectively. As the saying goes ‘better late than never’, pharma’s late realization of the game changing power of digital technology is much better than no realization at all, which many naysayers indirectly pontificate, of course, under a facade.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.