Tag Archives: Sun Pharma

Unleashing Pharma’s New Potential In Changing Market Dynamics

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Several pharma majors have started pondering in this space. This is evident from several recent developments, both in India, and also in other places of the world. One such articulation can be heard from the very top of the domestic pharma industry, which could be a pacesetter for many others.

The founder and Managing Director’s Message of India’s top pharma company – Sun pharmaceuticals, was released to the media on June 02, 2021. This speech is a part of the company’s Annual Report 2019-20. It is indeed interesting from overall pharma business operations’ perspective in India amid Covid-19 pandemic. It is also in sync with what many of his global counterparts have also expressed in recent times. To give a sense of Sun Pharma Chief’s reading and understanding of the fast-changing business dynamics, I am quoting below a few critical points of his above message:

  • There is a gradual realization that the COVID-19 virus is here to stay and that all of us will have to learn to coexist with the virus till an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available.
  • There will be far-reaching changes in the way in which organizations are likely to operate going forward.
  • Consumer behavior and consumption patterns are also likely to change due to the global pandemic.
  • Social distancing and maintaining individual hygiene (like using masks and hand sanitizers) have become imperative.
  • Work-from-home (WFH) option has been exercised by most organizations for certain functions and there is a likelihood that it will continue for some more time till the viral infection comes under control.
  • There is a possibility that WFH may become the new-normal for certain categories of corporate work force even after COVID-19 comes under control.
  • Also, there is a higher focus on automation, digitalization as well as an increased dependence on analytical tools for decision making.

Overall, in the global pharma and biotech arena, one can now witness a varied response to opening-up – some quite bold, others are flexible and cautious – as the scenario unfolds. In this article, I shall dwell on the importance of framing a well-thought-out plan, with clearly stated Plan B, C and D in this area, to prevent any business opportunities to slip by due to delayed action.

Key questions to answer – what to open and when to open:

It goes without saying that remote working or WFH for all pharma employees can’t remain in-force for any indefinite period. It will mostly depend on two critical drivers, mainly to avoid any reckless decision with grave consequences. One – how fast several – reasonably strong preventive measures, such as, vaccinations, can provide a reasonable herd immunity to most people around. And also, how most other similar businesses successfully start carrying out their commercial operations in the same environment.

Pharma players would then need to have a clarity on the business functions where selective personal presence of the qualified staff is necessary, as no extent of technological interventions can compensate it. Then follows the question, when to start opening – without being reckless and following all prescribed Covid related health norms. The answer to these questions should be addressed along with Plan B, C and D ready – just in case something doesn’t work out or because of competitive reasons.

To elaborate this point, let me first give an example of what an Indian tech behemoth is planning to get back some employees in the workplace, based on a sophisticated digital model. Thereafter, we will have a glimpse on how several pharma and biotech players are planning in this space. The basic assumption is – the grand show must go on – with collective scientific learnings on how to coexist with the virus, for an indefinite period, if inevitable.

Integrated digital plan to get back more employees at the workplace by TCS: 

Lilly, Amgen, PfizerAs reported on June 02, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) are working on a plan to get back more employees to the workplace. The tech giant is focusing more ‘on increasing talent fungibility as global clients increasingly require associates with niche skills to be deployed on projects at short notices.

Thus, to evaluate how it will get a certain percentage of people back, TCS has drawn up a risk assessment model, Intelligent Urban Exchange (IUX). To effectively address the new requirements for employees’ safety, regulatory compliance, and operational efficiency, the company has devised this system. It will help TCS to get real-time insights that will help restore operations and ensure safety, while becoming nimbler and more resilient in the new normal.

What some global companies are planning now:

One will witness a mixed approach of global pharma players to get back employees at the workplace, soon. This will be evident from a few examples, as below.

A Bloomberg report on April 27, 2021, highlighted: ‘As vaccine drives ramp up and open the possibility of a return to the office, a growing number of companies have pointed to a continued role for remote work — and less of a need for pricey office space.’ It quoted Novartis CEO saying: ‘“We’ve all learned from the pandemic that we can work from home and work from the office, and it will always be a combination going forward.”

Thus, in Novartis, “hybrid-based working environment” – at-home and in-office work, will persist for the long term – extending beyond the pandemic. The Company CEO also reiterated: “We think this is the future.” The flexibility should allow Novartis to “access talent pools we would not have been able to access in the past,” he believes.

Similar approach, but with specific dates for returning to the workplace: 

By an open announcement on Linkedin, the Chairman and CEO of Eli Lilly declared the Company’s plan at the current stage of Covid pandemic. He said: “More than a year later, I’m pleased to say that we’re actively planning Lilly’s return to our workplace in downtown Indianapolis, and other facilities around the world.”

He further said, on June 1, 2021, Lilly will begin reopening their Indianapolis offices, inviting 25 percent of our workforce back – with masking and distancing indoors, and a requirement for vaccination. Barring a change in the steady downward case rate in the community, the Company will then open to all Indianapolis-based employees on July 12, 2021.

The company’s new work model will be based on the requirements for each job. Some employees will be on site all the time, others most of the time, and some will have even more flexibility. As ‘individual work’, and some ‘transactional work’, is easier done remotely, employees in those roles can choose that option in consultation with their supervisor. But collaboration, innovation and learning are best done in-person at the Company facilities, the Chairman and CEO said.

He reiterated, Lilly is not taking these steps casually, but based on a data-based approach, and will continue to do so. If external factors change, Lilly will adapt. In other countries, the Company offices will continue to follow local guidelines and open as they are allowed based on local circumstances, the Company clarified.

More remote working being planned by many other global majors:

According to another report of May 07, 2021, many other global pharma and biotech majors are now planning in favor of long-term remote working for several critical business than ever before. For example, on May 07, 2021 Amgen announced that the Company will make working from home a permanent policy for much of its international workforce, including locally.

It said, “Most of our employees who are currently working remotely will continue to do so for a majority of their time, even after the pandemic ends. Our intent is to create a more flexible environment that intentionally combines the benefits of remote and in-person working.” The statement further added. “We are not initiating any changes to our Thousand Oaks campus at the time. Though some staff may come to campus less frequently.”

As reported on April 27, 2021, Pfizer has put its large Philadelphia-area campus up for sale, as it considers the future of work. According to the company, as revealed by Fierce Pharma, “The decision to do so is primarily being driven by the company’s evolving – flexible working model, providing employees with greater flexibility to work remotely while still maintaining the ability to connect and collaborate regularly on-site.”

Conclusion:

It’s over a year of business disruptions within the pharmaceutical industry, at varying intensity and in different phases, though. For example, after more than a year since the pandemic hit India, Covid 2.0 has, reportedly, pushed up Indian pharmaceutical sales to a new high. It recorded an exponential growth of 59% year on year in April 2021, against 16 per cent – year on year in March 2021. This is obviously an outlier and is apparently unsustainable. Thus, for a sustainable good growth with greater certainty, Indian pharma players would require working out a well-researched digital blueprint of the future working framework of business operations with ‘what if’ options.

As has been revealed, remote working, wherever it makes robust business sense, will help getting hard-to-reach talent pools regardless of geography. This opportunity needs to be leveraged. However, it’s also a fact that for various reasons, everyone may not be too comfortable to work from home. Thus, the future work plan may call for a balanced and employee specific approaches.

Which is why, the process will require in-depth analysis of key functions where the personal presence of qualified staff is necessary, mainly because, no extent of technological interventions can compensate the human presence. Then follows the question – when to start opening in a responsible way – following all prescribed Covid related health norms. A representative pilot trial may help in this area.

Some of the key factors to consider will include speed of getting the staff vaccinated. Besides, arrangement for quick identification of breakthrough Covid infections among staff through quick tracing, testing, and provisions for appropriate hospitalization, if necessary, need to be put in place. Thus, I reckon, it’s time for the domestic pharma companies to diligently plan for unleashing the new potential of the respective organizations – amid the pandemic-triggered changes in market dynamics.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Does India Produce ‘World Class’ Medicines, For All?

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India has already achieved a staggering number In terms of quantity or volume of generic medicines that it produces not just for India, but for many developed, developing and poorer countries, across the world. For this reason, India is popularly known as ‘The Pharmacy of The World’. No one questions this number at all, rather looks at India with a sense of admiration in this regard.

Nevertheless, for driving this volume growth trend further north, in a consistent and sustainable way, Indian pharma sector must ensure that its huge volume growth engine remains firmly placed on a solid bedrock of ‘world class’ drug quality, always. Any compromise in this crucial area, could strike a critical blow to this ‘tower of national pride’.

Ongoing several embarrassing incidents related to the drug manufacturing quality standards in India, are increasingly fueling the apprehension, whether or not India produces ‘World Class’ medicines for all patients across the world, independent of any other criteria, financial or otherwise. The debate has now taken an interesting turn, especially after near confirmation of this apprehension by the top drug regulator of India.

In this article, I shall discuss this important issue that hugely impacts all of us, giving my own perspective to it. Let me begin with one of the most recent incidents on the subject, involving the numero-uno of Indian pharmaceutical industry.

An overseas new product launch got prematurely aborted?

On September 25, 2015, by a Press Release, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (SPARC) announced a major set back for the company. The set back may not be so much in terms of the company’s estimated revenue loss, but more on public perception across the world, about the manufacturing quality standards followed even by the top most pharma company of India.

SPARC made a public announcement through media that on March 2015 it had received a final approval from the Food and Drug Administration of the United States (USFDA) for the anti-epileptic drug – Elepsia XR (Levetiracetam extended-release tablets 1000 mg and 1500 mg). However, in the Complete Response letter (CRL) to the company’s New Drug Application (NDA) for the product, the USFDA has revoked its earlier approval, citing that the compliance status of the manufacturing facility was not acceptable on the date of approval. Elepsia XR is to be manufactured at Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (SPIL)’s Halol facility in Gujarat, the announcement said.

Sun Pharma had reportedly indicated in June 2015 that the Company had been working “very aggressively” to find partners for the product. It had “some advanced discussions” and aimed to launch the drug by the second half of fiscal 2016.

The international media lapped it up and reported this development with eye-catching headlines, one such was:

“India’s Sun Pharma research arm sees FDA nod for Elepsia XR yanked by FDA on manufacturing.”

Not a one-off isolated incident:

This matter can no way be treated as a one-off and an isolated incident, as it fits in well with a series of similar events, spanning over the last few years.

Looking at these disturbing adverse reports from the foreign drug regulators on the drug manufacturing quality standards in India, together with recent comments of the Indian drug regulator on the subject, serious health safety concerns on overall drug quality in the country, are being expressed now. The concern includes the local patients in India, as well.

Can the core issue be wished away?

Up until today, USFDA has altogether warned 39 manufacturing sites of 27 Indian pharma companies for breach of data integrity and not following specified manufacturing quality standards. The agency has also expressed that it treats these as potentially dangerous medicines for the consumption of patients in the US.

In 2015 alone, USFDA has reportedly detected such serious ‘short comings’ with 6 Indian drug makers, till September. A report from Financial Times (FT) states that the above numbers do not include the testing facilities facing sanctions from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in the GVK Biosciences related cases or from the World Health Organizations (WHO).

What is most worrying, none can possibly still fathom, if these alleged ‘reprehensible’ manufacturing practices are restricted to just a few players or are all pervasive across the Indian drug industry.

When the foreign regulators, such as USFDA and Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) of the United Kingdom (UK) continue raising the red flags on the manufacturing standards of the top pharma players of India, including the numero uno, a chilling sensation flows through the spine, as it were. The moot question that comes up: Are all the drugs manufactured in India safe for the local patients, offering desirable efficacy?

Keeping these in perspective, would it be prudent to wish away the drug quality related critical issues, raising a conspiracy theory against the US or EU or suspend discussions on any Foreign Trade Agreement (FTA)? I don’t reckon so, and would touch upon this point in course of my discussion below.

The murmur among the US doctors:

According to an article from Reuters of March 18, 2014, titled “Unease grows among US doctors over Indian drug quality”, some US doctors are also expressing concerns about the quality of generic drugs supplied by Indian manufacturers, following a flurry of recalls and ‘import bans’ by the USFDA.

This concern has been prompted by the fact that India supplies about 40 percent of generic and over-the-counter drugs used in the United States, making it the second-biggest supplier after Canada.

Not much complaint from the Indian doctors:

This is intriguing. Despite so much of furore of the regulatory agencies in the US and EU on the Indian drug quality standards, not much concern on the same has been expressed by the medical practitioners in India, just yet.

It appears, by and large, Indian doctors believe that branded generics are generally of good quality, and the quality of generics without a brand name is not as reliable, always.

This logic is beyond my comprehension. How come just fixing a brand name on a generic formulation makes it more acceptable in terms of quality, when both branded generics and generics without a brand name, have obtained the same regulatory approval from the same drug regulators in India and following the same regulatory process?

As you will see below, the situation has changed further now, especially after the admission of the DCGI about non-compliance of global manufacturing quality standards by majority of the formulation manufacturers in India, as reported by the media. The only silver lining to it is that whatever is being currently manufactured in India, presumably meets the regulators approval in conformance to the Drugs and Cosmetics Act of the country, without any credible data to the contrary.

Does India produce drugs of ‘World Class’ quality for all?

The key question that is being raised today: Does India produce ‘world class’ drugs and for all? This is mainly because, manufacturers of ‘world class’ drug quality always aim at competing for quality on the best global standards to remain competitive in the international markets, in all parameters. This should hold good even for the domestic Indian market, for all drugs, consumed by all the local patients, irrespective of their financial status.

A lurking fear keeps lingering, primarily apprehending that Indian drug manufacturing quality related issues are not confined only to the importers in the developed world, such as, the United States, European Union or Canada. There is no reason to vouch for either, that such gross violations are not taking place with the medicines consumed by the patients in India or in the poorer nations of Africa and other similar markets.

A recent international study on Indian drug quality:

The following study further aggravates the angst.

The September 2014 ‘Working Paper 20469’ of ‘The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)’ Cambridge, USA, titled “Poor Quality Drugs and Global Trade: A Pilot Study’, epitomizes the following:

  • Experts claim that some Indian drug manufacturers cut corners and make substandard drugs for markets with non-existent, under-developed or emerging regulatory oversight, notably Africa.

The study assessed the quality of 1470 antibiotic and tuberculosis drug samples that claim to be made in India and were sold in Africa, India, and five mid-income non-African countries and found:

      – 10.9 percent of these products fail a basic assessment of active pharmaceutical                  ingredients (API) 

       - The majority of the failures are substandard (7 percent) as they contain some correct          API but the amount of API is under-dosed.

        – The distribution of these substandard products is not random, they are more likely             to be found as unregistered products in Africa than in India or non-African                           countries.

Claiming that the findings are robust, the NBER study points towards one likely explanation that Indian pharmaceutical firms and/or their export intermediaries do indeed differentiate drug quality according to the destination of consumption.

Incomprehensible?

The above facts are alarming, especially when these flow from a survey report of a credible international institution. This is incomprehensible too, as all these are medicines, and are meant to be for relief or cure of ailments that the patients are suffering from, irrespective of whether they are from the developed, developing or poorer countries.

If it is still happening today, why are those manufacturers allowed by the Indian drug regulators to discriminate between the patients of the developed countries and the developing world, including India, to meet the same health care needs? This is absolutely cruel by any standard, undoubtedly.

‘As you sow, so shall you reap’:

Just as the above well-known proverb says that the actions or deeds repay in kind, reasonably frequent ‘import bans’ by the foreign drug regulators on drug quality norms, has probably prompted booming generic drug exports of Indian pharma now slowing down to US$15.3 billion in 2014-15, from US $14.84 billion in 2013-14.

Along side, these avoidable incidents have significantly dented India’s image as the ‘pharmacy of the world’, manufacturing affordable and high quality generic formulations for the patients across the world.

Indian drug regulator too now thinking afresh? 

Yet another relevant question comes up. What happens, if during treatment of serious ailments such drugs fail to act for inferior quality? How would one possibly know in India, whether a death has occurred due to unresponsive poor quality of drugs or on account of severity of the ailments? How helpless are the patients in such a situation?

This sad feeling gets even stronger, when well after a prolonged defense of the high quality of drugs manufactured in India, no less than the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), airs his second thought on the same issue. This is vindicated by recent media reports on this subject.

On September 30, 2015, a media report stated that being virtually flustered by the USFDA and the drug regulators in the European Union, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) would place a proposal before the Ministry of Health, within the next six months, for an amendment to the existing pharmaceutical manufacturing laws under Drugs and Cosmetics Act, 1940, and Drugs and Cosmetics Rules, 1945, in order to ‘bring them on par with international standards’.

The DCGI now believes that this remedial measure would raise drug manufacturing standards in India in line with the global cGMP standards, recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Currently, out of around 8,000 drug manufacturers in India, only 10 to15 percent are following the WHO guidelines, the report stated quoting the DCGI.

The new revelation further strengthens the apprehension about quality of drugs that Indian patients are consuming in the country with a strong hope for relief from the diseases that they suffer from.

The DCGI apparently admitted it, when he was quoted saying in the above report, “India has become a pharmacy of the world. So, we cannot live in isolation and will have to meet their expectations. Our system is in the process of improving.”

DCGI statement follows an important Government decision:

It is worth noting that the above comment of the DCGI comes close on the heels of an important Government decision in this regard.

On August 12, 2015, The Press Trust of India (PTI) reported that to facilitate domestic manufacture of quality medical products, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) on that day approved a proposal of strengthening and upgrading the drug regulatory system both at the Central and state level. The committee approved a budget of of INR17.5 billion (US$270 million) on this account.

The up gradation and strengthening of the system will also include setting up of new laboratories and training academy for regulatory and drug testing officials, the report added.

Yet Another significant development:

On October 5, 2015, in yet another significant development in this direction, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) of the United Kingdom (UK), by a ‘Press Release’, announced signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) of India.

This agreement will increase collaboration between India and UK in the area of medicines and medical devices with the aim of further improving public safety in both the countries. It is worth noting, around 25 percent of generic drugs consumed in the UK are made in India. Hence, the concern of MHRA over the safety of those medicines is understandable.

I wrote in this Blog on USFDA ‘Import Bans’ in my article of November 11, 2013, titled ‘USFDA ‘Import Bans’: The Malady Calls For Strong Bitter Pills.’

Conclusion:

A valid question that is being asked by many in India today, why the issues like, alleged cGMP non-compliance, data fudging and falsification of other documents, especially with USFDA, have multiplied suddenly over the last few years. Why not as many of such issues were raised by the USFDA before around 3 to 4 years?

This is primarily because, of late the inspectors from the USFDA have significantly increased their efforts to ensure the drug manufacturing facilities from where both generic Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) and formulations are exported to the US, strictly follow the drug manufacturing standards, as stipulated by the USFDA. The fact that India supplies about 40 percent of generic and over-the-counter drugs currently used in the United States, has prompted this requirement to safeguard health safety of the American patients.

Such stringent USFDA audits commenced in 2012, when US Congress passed the FDA Safety and Innovation Act. This legislation, among others, requires the USFDA auditing all foreign facilities that make drugs for export to the US, as frequently as it does for the domestic drug manufacturing plants. Thereafter, we have seen a spurt in the USFDA inspections of the pharma manufacturing facilities in India, where from drugs are exported to the US. Hence, there does not seem to be any other credible ‘conspiracy theory’ on this issue.

As reported in ‘The New York Times’ of February 14, 2014, the same DCGI almost brushing aside the gravity of the situation arising out of repeated ‘import bans’, commented at that time, “If I have to follow US standards in inspecting facilities supplying to the Indian market, we will have to shut almost all of those.”

The top drug regulator seems to have changed his mind since then, and presumably is thinking differently now, as the Indian media very recently quoted the DCGI saying “India has become a pharmacy of the world. So, we cannot live in isolation and will have to meet their expectations. Our system is in the process of improving.”

This is a good omen, especially for the patients in India. If and when it gets translated into reality, with Kudos to the DCGI, we all would feel very proud saying, “The Pharmacy of the World now produces the World-Class drugs, for all” …God willing!

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Drug Price Control in India: A Fresh Advocacy With Blunt Edges

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It is no-brainer that the advocacy initiatives to influence the new Government doing away with the ‘Drug Price Control’ in India has re-started by flooring the gas pedal. A fresh invigorating effort, apparently a pretty expensive one, has been initiated in July 2015 with an interesting study conducted on the subject by an international market research organization, sponsored by a multi-national pharma trade association in India.

Having gone through the report, it appears to me, as if the whole purpose of the study was to rationalize an ‘advance’ conclusion in mind, weaving plethora of data around it for justification.

The report presents an abundance of selective data, apparently to rubbish the very concept of ‘Drug Price Control’ in India. In that process, it reinforced the existence of a deep seated malady in the overall sales and marketing strategic framework of most of the pharma players, rather than failure of ‘Drug Price Control’ in India, meant for the essential drugs.

In this article, I shall dwell on this issue adding my own perspective. Although my views are different, I totally respect the findings and suggestions made in this report.

Drug price control in India:

From 1970, Drug Price Control Orders (DPCO) are being issued in India under the Essential Commodities Act, without any break, so far. The key intent of the DPCO is to provide quality essential medicines at a reasonably affordable price to the consumer. The DPCO has been amended four times since then, the latest one being DPCO 2013.

Unlike the previous ones, the span of price control of DPCO 2013 is restricted to essential medicines, as featured in the National List of Essential Medicines 2011 (NLEM 2011). The methodology of price control has also now changed to ‘marked-based’ pricing from earlier ‘cost-based’ pricing.

However, for the first time in July 2013, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) extended ‘Drug Price Control’ beyond the Schedule Drugs, when by a notification it announced price fixation of ‘anti-diabetic and cardiovascular drugs in respect of 108 non-scheduled formulation packs under Paragraph 19 of DPCO, 2013’,

Paragraph 19 of DPCO, 2013, authorizes the NPPA in extraordinary circumstances, if it considers it necessary to do so in public interest, to fix the ceiling price or retail price of any drug for such period as it deems fit.

Although the pharma industry initially had supported the switch from ‘cost based’ price control to ‘market based’ price control and only for NLEM 2011 drugs, it took a tougher stand after the above notification. Some trade association reverted to the same good old genre, yet again, trying to establish that ‘Drug Price Control’ does not help at all. The brand new market research report under discussion in this article, appears to be a step in that direction.

‘Market failure in pharma’ where competition does not work:

In its price notification dated July 10, 2014, as mentioned above, the NPPA justified its action by underscoring ‘market failure’ for those anti-diabetic and cardiovascular drugs, where competition does not work. NPPA considered ‘market failure’ as one of the ‘extraordinary circumstances’ and explained the situation as follows:

  • There exist huge inter-brand price differences in branded-generics, which is indicative of a severe market failure, as different brands of the same drug formulation, which are identical to each other in terms of active ingredient(s), strength, dosage, route of administration, quality, product characteristics, and intended use, vary disproportionately in terms of price
  • It is observed that, the different brands of the drug formulation may sometimes differ in terms of binders, fillers, dyes, preservatives, coating agents, and dissolution agents, but these differences are not significant in terms of therapeutic value.
  • In India the market failure for pharmaceuticals can be attributed to several factors, but the main reason is that the demand for medicines is largely prescription driven and the patient has very little choice in this regard.
  • Market failure alone may not constitute sufficient grounds for government intervention, but when such failure is considered in the context of the essential role of pharmaceuticals play in the area of public health, which is a social right, such intervention becomes necessary, especially when exploitative pricing makes medicines unaffordable and beyond the reach of most and also puts huge financial burden in terms of out-of-pocket expenditure on healthcare.

I discussed this subject in my bog post of April 27, 2015 titled, “Does ‘Free-Market Economy’ Work For Branded Generic Drugs In India?”

Are medicines cheapest in India, really?

It is quite often quoted that medicines are cheapest in India. In my view, it would be too simplistic, if we compare the prevailing Indian drug prices in Rupee, against prices of similar drugs in other countries, just by simple conversion of the foreign currencies, such as, US$ and Euro converted into Rupee. To make the comparison realistic and credible, Indian drug prices should be compared against the same in other countries only after applying the following two critical parameters:

  • Purchasing Power Parity and Per Capita Income
  • Quantum of per capita ‘Out of Pocket Expenditure’ on drugs

The Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) with the help of academia and other experts had earlier deliberated on this issue in one of its reports on patented drugs pricing. The report established that post application of the above two parameters, medicines in India are virtually as expensive as in the developed world, causing great inconvenience to majority of patients in the country.

Hence, common patients expectedly look for some kind of critical intervention by the Government, at least, on the prices of essential drugs in India.

A new study on drug price control:

Recently, I came across a ‘brand new’ research report that tries to justify the fresh stance allegedly taken by the pharma industry on the abolition of ‘Drug Price Control’ in India.

This new study of IMS Health released on July 2015, sponsored by a pharma MNC trade association in India, titled “Assessing the Impact of Price Control Measures on Access to Medicines in India”, categorically highlights ‘price control is neither an effective nor sustainable strategy for improving access to medicines for Indian patients’.

The key findings:

The following are the key findings of the report:

  • High income patient populations, rather than the low-income targets are the primary beneficiaries of the DPCO 2013.
  • The consumption of price-controlled drugs in rural areas has decreased by 7 percent over the past two years, while that of non-price controlled products has risen by 5 percent.
  • The DPCO 2013 has resulted in an increase in market concentration and a decrease in competitive intensity.
  • Price control has increased margin pressures for small and mid-sized companies, limiting both employment and investment opportunities in the sector.
  • Price controls negatively impact internal capability-building and expertise-building initiatives, discourage local talent and undermine the government’s ’Make in India’ initiative.

The suggestions made:

In my view, the report almost repeats the same old suggestions being made by the pharma industry over decades. However, while making recommendations, this new report selectively quotes, without clearly naming them, from the draft National Health Policy 2015 and ‘Jan Aushadhi’ initiative of the DoP. It also attempts to ride on the shoulder of Prime Minister Modi’s ‘Make in India’ campaign. The key recommendations of the study are, as follows:

  • Strengthen healthcare financing and extend universal health coverage across population segments with focus on providing cover for medicines
  • Invest in healthcare infrastructure and capability building
  • Promote joint and bulk procurement mechanisms, e.g. Tamil Nadu Medical Services Corporation
  • Levy a cess on the tobacco and liquor industries to fund the healthcare sector and subsidize essential medicines from taxes
  • Introduce mechanisms to ensure availability of generics at lower prices, to improve affordability for patients i.e. set up dedicated generic medicine stores.

An official of IMS Health was also quoted by the media that sounds to me almost like pontification:

“Price control has limited impact on improving patient access and, furthermore is not aligned with the requirements of a vibrant economy like India” and the “Government’s priority should be on strengthening India’s healthcare infrastructure and extending universal insurance coverage.”

The blunt edges in the report raise more questions than answers:

I wonder, whether another apparently expensive research, such as this, was at all necessary to reinvent the same old advocacy narratives on ‘Drug Price Control’ in India.

As I note, the report highlights, “The consumption of price-controlled drugs in rural areas has decreased by 7 percent over the past two years, while that of non-price controlled products has risen by 5 percent.” If this is true, one should try to fathom:

  • What does it really mean and what are its implications?
  • Can it happen, if it has happened, just because of ‘Drug Price Control’?

I am raising these two questions mainly because, price controlled drugs are prescription medicines. Thus, post DPCO 2013, when it happens to ‘prescription only medicines’, other critical questions that come at the top of mind are as follows:

  • Are the doctors now prescribing less of price controlled drugs? If so, why?
  • Price controlled drugs being essential drugs, are the doctors prescribing less of essential drugs? If so, why?
  • Do the doctors prefer prescribing expensive ‘non-schedule’ drugs to patients against their interest? if so, why?

Further, deliberately causing decline in consumption of these drugs, for margin or whatever may be the reasons, without intimating the NPPA as stipulated in the DPCO 2013, is a serious offense, attracting stringent penal action under the Essential Commodities Act.

Therefore, if the above finding of this study is correct and assuming that NPPA is not aware of such shortages or declining consumption of essential drugs in India, yet another critical question that needs to be answered:

  • By deliberately bringing down the consumption of essential medicines, are the concerned pharma players not taking the law in their own hands?

If yes, the Government would need to act forthwith. If not, the above finding of the report is just not correct.

The DoP, NPPA and other stakeholders would, therefore, need to ferret out, which one of the above two is correct.

Thus, I reckon, to wish away ‘Drug Price Control’ in India, the fresh advocacy initiative of the pharma trade association, keeping in the forefront a new study with blunt edges, raises more questions than answers. I have given just an example here, as above.

More marketing push on ‘free-pricing’ drugs is common:

It is not uncommon that the sales of ‘free-pricing’ drugs are usually more, as their margin is unlimited. Pharma players take increasing interest in those drugs and push them harder, almost totally controlling the ‘push-pull’ effect of drug marketing.

Globally, drug companies take increasing interest in such medicines. India is no exception. Here too ‘out of price control’ non-schedule drugs usually show higher growth, as the doctors are influenced to prescribe more of such drugs, though at the cost of consumer.

This practice may not be acceptable to many, but is a stark reality. This process is expected to continue, at least, till Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCPMP) is made mandatory with strict enforcement and strong punitive provisions for any violations.

Is the growth of price controlled drugs declining?

If the growth of price controlled medicines drastically comes down post DPCO 2013, that should get reflected on the declining overall sales and growth of those drugs. Similar pattern should also be visible in the growth of those types products marketed by most of the major pharma companies in India.

Let me now present the scenario of that space. The following analysis is based on the monthly retail audit data of AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS.

When I look at the growth of DPCO 2013 products based on NLEM 2011 and other price controlled drugs under ‘Para 19’ from January to July 2015 period in the following table, the scenario does not look as worrying just yet, as the above report has made it out to be.  

Product group-wise market growth (in Value):

Month (2015) DPCO products (%) DPCO  Para 19 Products (%) Non-DPCO Products (%) Total Market Growth (%)
July 5.1 11.8 14.2 12.9
June 5.6 14.6 16.2 14.8
May 5.3 7.2 12.1 11.0
April 11.1 11.9 18.4 17.2
March 1.6 15.6 21.7 20.9
February 13.9 14.4 20.0 18.9
January 6.9 NA 14.0 12.7

(Source: AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS )

Again, in the following table, when I look at the growth of DPCO 2013 products of some the very major pharma players in India, the conclusion still remains the same as above:

DPCO Products Growth (%) by major companies (Jan-July 2015):

Company July June May April March Feb Jan
Ranbaxy 20.5 31.9 29.5 17.3 27.6 20.7 53.7
Pfizer 13.0 17.4 5.7 16.7 25.6 21.1 18.6
Abbott 7.2 11.7 18.5 13.5 15.5 18.3 21.2
GSK -2.1 - 1.8 -1.2 12.2 12.2 NA NA

(Source: AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS )

The blunt edges fail to cut ice:

Quite expectedly, even a month after its release in July 2015, the blunt edges in the report seem to have cut no ice, especially at a very important place that matters most to the industry in this area. This observation gets vindicated by a credible media report.

On August 24, 2015 in an interview to a national business daily, V K Subburaj, the Secretary of the Department of Pharmaceuticals commented, “Price control on drugs a shot in the arm for health care” and “the Government cannot do away with it.”

He argued, “A large section of the population is poor. Suddenly, your system is disturbed if you have to spend more on drugs. Drugs are an important component of health care expenditure.”

Accepting the fact that in India, big and small companies investing in research would need more money, Mr. Subburaj said, “In India, we can’t afford to remove controls as the burden of disease is high.”

Conclusion:

With all due respect to all concerned, the above report appears to me palpably commercial, sans any worthy academic value or intellectual input that could trigger thinking for a change in the Government policy. The report apparently lacks in the required cutting edge to achieve the intended goal. The blunt edges are glaring, suggesting on the contrary, that the real action actually lies with the industry. Let me hasten to add, if any one has a different view on the subject, I would respect that with all humility.

The drug price control in India has been continuing since 1970, without any gap. The retail audit data clearly indicates that the growth of the Indian pharma industry did not get stunted or stifled during the period for this particular reason, as postulated in the above report of IMS Health. On the contrary, despite price control of drugs with all its ‘ill-effects’, as highlighted in the study, the growth of the Indian pharma industry in the last 4 decades has been nothing less than spectacular. This would consequently mean, increasing consumption of drugs, leading to improving access to medicines in India, including its hinterland, though may still not be good enough. I discussed this subject in my blog post of December 13, 2013, titled “Access to Medicine: Losing Track in Cacophony”.

Coincidentally, at the commencement of drug price control regime in India, almost all, if not all, the players in the ‘Top 10’ pharma league table of the country, were multi-national drug companies. Today the situation has just reversed. Out of ‘Top 10’, about 7 are home grown drug companies. Many of these companies were born post 1970. Without M&As by the pharma MNCs, this number could have been even higher today.

When it comes to profitability, it is worth mentioning, the soft-spoken and well-respected owner of the so called ‘low margin’ generic pharma company – Sun Pharma, is the second-richest person of the country. He created his initial wealth from India, despite ostensible ‘growth stunting’ price control – as elaborated in the above report.

By the way, what is the span of drug price control in India really – just around 18 percent of the total domestic pharma market now? More than 80 percent of the local drug market continue to remain in the ‘free-pricing’ and ‘high-profit’ zone. In that case, is the essence of the report not chanting… ‘yeh dil maange more’?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

“Make in India” Image of Pharma Needs An Early Makeover

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“It is never too late to be what you might have been” - George Elliot

The chronicle of events since the last couple of years or so, related to ‘Make in India’ image of the local drug industry, have been instrumental to significantly slowing down the scorching pace of pharma exports growth of the country.

The Union Ministry of Commerce estimates that India’s export of drugs and pharmaceuticals may hardly touch US$16 billion in 2014-15, against US$14.84 billion of last financial year. This would mean that pharma exports growth would just be around 5 percent, against the projected number of 10 percent for the year. This is a significant concern, as pharma exports contribute around 40 percent to the total value turnover of the sector.

Despite this fact and couple of other important reasons, as I shall discuss below, about 45 percent of listed pharma stocks in India have reportedly more than doubled in the past one year. The current tail wind in the domestic pharma market could possibly have contributed to this aberration.

According to AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, the last financial year started in April 2014 with 7.3 percent domestic retail pharma growth, which accelerated to 20.9 percent in March 2015, as the year ended.

High level of optimism and positive sentiments, thus generated in this process, possibly prompted many to ignore even some of the critical storm signals for the domestic pharma industry in its totality.

Declining pharma exports growth – A key challenge:

In 2014, pharmaceutical exports contributed 39 percent to the sector’s total value turnover. Consistently strong export performance over the last few decades, has catapulted the local drug industry in the not so common trajectory of the net foreign exchange earner for India. It is worth noting, though pharma exports grew at a rate of just 1.2 per cent to reach in 2013-14, it registered a CAGR of 21 percent over the last decade.

Some analysts estimate, the chances of Indian pharma exports touching even US$16 billion in 2014-15 are indeed challenging, especially considering low growth recorded by some of the large Indian pharma companies, including Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Lupin, especially in the US market.

Mounting pricing pressure:

Consolidation process of pharmacy players in the US market is also affecting the profit margins of the Indian drug exporters.

Some key examples are:

  • Global alliance among three large pharmacy distributors – Walgreen, Alliance Boots and Amerisource –Bergen, in early 2013
  • Joint venture between the second largest US wholesale distributor, Cardinal Health, and CVS Caremark in December 2013
  • US pharmacy McKesson’s announced acquisition of US distributor Celesio in January 2014.
  • On April 9, 2015, Bloomberg reported that Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.’s acting Chief Executive Officer Stefano Pessina has expressed his intent to do more deals, just months after being on the saddle of the biggest US drugstore chain.

As a result, a few dominant pharmacy players emerged with hard bargaining power, exerting tough pricing pressures on the generic drug companies and that too in a market that has been facing already facing cutthroat generic price competition.

Consequently, according to published reports, the prices of generic drugs, in general, declined by around 20 to 30 per cent over the past 19 months, in the US.

Vulnerability in the key market:

According to IBEF March 2015, the United States (US) has been the prime importer of pharmaceuticals from India, accounting for over 25 per cent of Indian pharmaceutical exports, followed by the European Union and Africa at second and third positions, respectively.

India exports over US$4 billion of pharmaceutical products to the US, out of its annual exports of around $15 billion. Large domestic companies, such as Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma and Lupin account for around US$3 billion of exports to the US and the balance comes from a large number of other Indian pharma players.

Government sites 3 reasons:

According to the Union Ministry of Commerce, there are reportedly three key reasons for the pharma export falling short of target in the financial year 2014-15, namely:

-       Delayed regulatory approvals

-       Consolidation of pharmacy players in North America (discussed above)

-       Steep depreciation of currencies in emerging markets such as, Russia, Ukraine and Venezuela

A major controllable concern seems to be out of total control:

While articulating the above three factors, the Union Ministry of Commerce seems to have missed out a very important one that has been instrumental in perpetuating the recent slow down of Indian pharma exports, significantly. It is very much a controllable too, unlike the other three, though appears to be virtually out of total control of the domestic pharma companies.

Fortunately, media kept harping on it. PTI News of January 11, 2015 reported, while Indian pharma exports expected to touch a turnover US$16 billion in 2014-15, many Indian pharmaceutical companies continue to face regulatory action by the USFDA for alleged violation of ‘Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP)’ and other irregularities at the respective drug manufacturing facilities in different parts of the country.

This report observed, a number of Indian drug-makers, including Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, IPCA Labs, Wockhardt and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories faced sanctions of the USFDA over different issues ranging from hygiene levels in the plant and concealment of data on failed tests to even fabrication of records. As a result, in several cases, these companies have been barred from selling their drugs in the US and other countries.

The issue involves the very top:

Sun Pharma, post acquisition of Ranbaxy, tops the pharma league table in India with around 9 percent of domestic market share.

It is much well known though, that the US drug regulator has already imposed a ban on import of medicines into the US, produced at its key constituent Ranbaxy’s India-based factories. Earlier, certain drugs produced at its Dewas plant of Ranbaxy were also barred from export to the entire EU region for non-compliance to GMP norms.

On its own, the acquirer – Sun Pharma has also faced USFDA ban on import of products made at its Karkhadi plant in Gujarat.

Taking all these into consideration, one can probably argue that the ‘Make in India’ issue for Indian pharma is humongous and quite a widespread one. Its adverse impact is very much palpable even at the very top.

The root cause:

The root cause of non-conformance of specified GMP standards probably dwells deep within the mindset of the concerned companies, as comes in the narrative of a whistleblower. In that case, the speed of progress of Indian pharma exports’ revival, alongside the industry image makeover, would possibly face a strong and silent headwind.

Pharma sector needs a health check:

On April 16, 2015, ET Intelligence Group commented that “High-flying pharma sector may be in need of a health check”, further reinforcing the case for re-rating of, especially, the export-oriented pharma sector.

The report underscored, that foreign brokerages Bank of America Merrill Lynch and CLSA have flagged concerns about valuations in pharma priced to perfection leaving little room for error. According to data from Bloomberg, since last week, ‘buy’ recommendations by analysts have dropped in stocks like Sun Pharma, Lupin, Cipla, Ipca Labs, Cadila Healthcare, Aurobindo Pharma and Torrent Pharma.

Smacks of irrational exuberance?

The article emphasized that the pharma growth story has now moved to being one that ‘smacks of irrational exuberance’.

The unprecedented interest in the sector has had the effect of shirking off negatives, like regulatory clamps by US FDA, price control, and currency fluctuations in the emerging markets and delay in drug approvals in the US.

The saga still continues:

Triggered by a whistleblower report and confirmed by a number of different adverse plant audit findings, the USFDA has stepped up scrutiny of India make generic drugs, over the last two years. It is worth noting that Indian generic drug players supply round 40 percent of such medicines sold in the United States.

As we discuss the subject, Indian pharma players continue to receive the warning letters from the USFDA, related to breach of GMP standards.

Lamentably enough, significant parts of the same continue to be the data integrity issues. Even in 2014, some large domestic players including, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Cadila Pharma and Orchid Pharma came under scrutiny of the US drug regulator.

Most recently in March 2015, USFDA banned most imports from the Ipca plants, in Pithampur in Madhya Pradesh and Silvassa in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, for non-compliance of GMP standards. Earlier, in January 2015, the US regulatory agency reportedly banned imports from another Indian manufacturing plant of Ipca.

India tops the list on the US import alerts:

According to USFDA data, from 2013 onwards, over 20 drug manufacturing facilities across India attracted ‘Import Alerts’ as against seven from China, two each from Australian, Canadian and Japanese units and one each from South African and German facilities.

Unfortunately, despite intense local and global furore on this subject, the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) of India, very strangely, do not seem to be much concerned on this critical issue, at least noticeably enough, besides making some occasional public statements on its working together with the USFDA in this regard.

I discussed similar subject in my blog post of September 29, 2014 titled “Make in India…Sell Anywhere in The World: An India Pharma Perspective.

Conclusion:

As it appears to me, the USFDA import bans related to breach of GMP standards, including ‘Data Integrity’, are mostly unrelated to knowledge deficiency of any kind – technical or otherwise, in the teams handling large drug manufacturing plants of India.

The details, as listed in the USFDA website, indicate that a large number of such incidents are related to falsification of data in the critical documentation process.

Earlier in this article, I termed the problem as very much controllable with the right kind of mindset to set things right, without probably resorting to cost-saving short cuts.

Prime Minister Modi, even during his very recent trips to France, Germany and Canada, passionate appealed to all, including pharma investors both local and global, to “Make in India” and “Sell Anywhere in The World” (exports). This call deserves to be responded with the right spirit and mindset and not just with lip services.

Failure to effectively address the patients’ safety requirements related issues of the foreign drug regulators, such as USFDA, and any direct or indirect attempt to categorize this plight as international ‘conspiracy’ of any kind, could jeopardize India’s interest in pharma exports, for a much longer while.

There is not even an iota of doubt today that “Make in India” image of Indian pharma has suffered a huge set back, at least in the largest and most valuable pharmaceutical market of the world.

As the well acclaimed English novelist George Elliot once said, “It is never too late to be what you might have been”, Indian pharma industry urgently needs an image makeover in this critical area…through a demonstrable change in mindset for doing things right…in every occasion and situation, always.

This is critical, as loss of credibility and reputation too frequently can push a pharma company virtually out of major international business for good… its current clout, might and financial power, not withstanding.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Does Drug Pricing Freedom Benefit Patients in A Free-Market Economy?

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A 2010 USFDA update titled ‘Generic Competition and Drug Prices’ highlighted that generic competition is intimately associated with lower drug prices, and the entry of the second generic competitor is associated with the largest price reduction.

The agency found that on an average, the first generic competitor prices its product only slightly lower than the brand-name manufacturer. However, the appearance of a second generic manufacturer reduces the average generic price to nearly half the brand name price. As additional generic manufacturers market the product, the prices continue to fall, but more slowly. For products that attract a large number of generic manufacturers, the average generic price falls to 20 percent of the branded price or even lower.

USFDA came to this conclusion based on an analysis of IMS retail sales data for single-ingredient brand name and generic drug products sold in the United States from 1999 through 2004.

Thus, the scope of any significant price increase, especially under cutthroat competition in the generic space of the US, used to be considered almost impractical until recently.

The ‘Myth’ busted:

Just over four years down the line, a ‘Press Release’ of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform shattered this myth, when on October 2, 2014, Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, Ranking Member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and Senator Bernard Sanders, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Primary Health and Aging, Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, sent letters to 14 drug manufacturers, which reportedly include India’s Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Zydus Cadila, requesting for detail information about the escalating prices for generic drugs that they have started charging.

The letters:

The complete letters written to each of the 14 drug manufactures are linked below:

Actavis plc

Apotex Corp.

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories

Endo International plc

Global Pharmaceuticals

Heritage Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Lannett Company, Inc.

Marathon Pharmaceuticals, LLC

Mylan Inc.

PAR Pharmaceuticals Companies Inc.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Inc

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

West-Ward Pharmaceutical Corp.

Zydus Pharmaceuticals USA Inc.

Summary findings of apparently ‘obscene’ price hike:

The following statements of Rep. Cummings and Senator Sanders capture the core sentiment of the probe:

“When you see how much the prices of these drugs have increased just over the past year, it’s staggering, and we want to know why,” Cummings said.

“Generic drugs were meant to help make medications affordable for the millions of Americans who rely on prescriptions to manage their health needs. We’ve got to get to the bottom of these enormous price increases,” Sanders added.

In the above letters, Cummings and Sanders quoted data from the Healthcare Supply Chain Association on recent purchases of 10 generic drugs by group purchasing organizations over the past two years.  For example:

  • Albuterol Sulfate used to treat asthma and other lung conditions, increased 4,014 percent for a 100’s bottle of 2 mg tablets.
  • Doxycycline Hyclate, an antibiotic used to treat a variety of infections, increased 8,281 percent for a 500’s bottle of 100 mg tablets.
  • Glycopyrrolate, used to prevent irregular heartbeats during surgery, increased 2,728 percent for a box of 10 of 0.2 mg/mL, 20 mL vials.

Click here for a table of price increases for the ten drugs examined.

The information sought by lawmakers:

The Lawmakers requested the companies to provide detail relevant information from 2012 to the present, including:

  • Total gross revenues from sales of the drugs,
  • Prices paid for the drugs,
  • Factors that contributed to decisions to increase prices,
  • The identity of company officials responsible for setting drug prices.

The trigger factor:

This probe by the US lawmakers was triggered by the National Community Pharmacists Association (NCPA) 2013 survey of drug prices. Subsequently in 2014, the NCPA had requested the US Senate to investigate into staggering increases of 390 – 8200 percent in the procurement prices of ten generic drugs, in just one year.

Immediate financial impact:

Reacting to this news, in the early afternoon on October 8, 2014, the scrip of Sun Pharma reportedly declined by 3.91 percent to Rs 804.10 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories slipped by 3.29 percent to Rs 2,996.90 while Cadila Healthcare was down by 1.84 percent to Rs 1,313.85 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

It is too early to speculate on the ultimate outcome of this probe. However, it may not be prudent to rule out the possibility of a far-reaching consequence, besides levying of commensurate penalties to the respective drug manufacturers.

India too acted upon, but withdrew hastily:

For products falling outside Drug Price Control Order 2013 (DPCO), which account for around 82 percent of the total Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) and are eligible for free pricing, India has a similar, yet slightly different problem.

The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) had addressed this issue recently, but was compelled to withdraw its internal guidelines on the subject rather hastily, coincidentally just prior to Prime Minister Modi’s visit to America. Pharma industry and its lobbyists had projected this move of NPPA as a regressive step in the free pricing space.

The above measure of the NPPA was related to arbitrary and wide price variation within the same non-schedule drug molecules, manufactured by different pharma companies. This was important, as unlike many other non-drug products, patients buy medicines based on what the doctors’ prescribe for them. Moreover, patients undergoing medical treatment or their relatives usually have no inkling about the availability of lesser price equivalents of the same molecule/molecules as recommended by their doctors.

For example, Glimeperide, an anti-diabetic drug, sold by the market leader at ₹133 for a pack of 10 tablets, despite other equivalent brands being available at or below ₹40 or the MRP for a pack of 10 tablets (40 mg) of Telmisartan, used to treat hypertension varies from a low of ₹25 to as high as ₹385.

More volume sales of many of these high price drugs, despite availability of their low price equivalents, manufactured by equally well reputed companies, are primarily driven by various differentiated activities of the pharma companies to influence the doctors in favor of their respective products, as believed by many. Such type of free market encouraging free drug pricing, devoid of any possibility for the patients to exercise informed choices on the medicine price, defeats its core purpose.

Thus, absurd price variation within the same formulation of the same product molecules, even after accounting for all imaginable reasons for the price differences, was construed by the NPPA as ‘market failure’, as consumers cannot use their choice in product selection.  In a market situation like this, intervention of the government is warranted for the sake of public health interest.

I hope, the Supreme Court of India would take note of this situation, in its next hearing.

A critical Question:

Based on ‘The New York Times’ report, I twitted (#@tapan_ray) on October 8, 2014 as follows:

“It happens in the US too? Government Demands Reasons For Rising Generic Drugs Costs, Otherwise Industry To Face New Regulation. http://nyti.ms/1vMi4No”

Subsequently, on October 9, 2014, Indian media flashed headlines like:

  • “Sun, Dr Reddy’s, Zydus Cadila named in US Congress price probe” or
  • “Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Dr. Reddy’s face US action on price hikes up to 8,000 percent”

In this scenario, where prices of some generic drugs sky rocket by 390 to 8,200 percent just in a year, the following basic question comes up for all stakeholders to ponder:

Does free pricing of drugs, even in free markets, work at all to protect patients’ health interest?

Conclusion:

In my view, quite unlike most other products, pricing freedom for medicines does not work in a free market due to a number of factors, even where intense competition exists from equivalent products placed in different price bands. This is mainly because, despite availability of lower price equivalents of the same or similar drugs, patients cannot exercise their pricing choice even within the same molecule, in any way, and is totally bound by what is prescribed by the doctors. This happens in India too and in all those countries where product substitution is illegal.

Moreover, it is an open secret that the pharma players heavily influence most of the heavy prescribers in their choice of drugs following various means. As a result, in many cases highest priced products become the category leader too, despite availability of lower price equivalents from equally reputed companies. This scenario makes many people believe that in a stable market situation drug prices skyrocket primarily due to dubious business practices giving rise to gross market manipulation

I reckon, just on drug pricing issue, many pharma players, both global and local, are inviting much avoidable business risks, not just in the developing markets such as India, but also in the largest free market economy of the world – the United States… or wherever opportunities for free drug pricing exist, irrespective of what it means to the patients. This mindset needs an urgent introspection, as the past would possibly not be replicated in the future.

Expectations from the civil society are now high that governments, both in the developing and also in the developed world, would keep a careful vigil to ensure that the process of earning a decent profit by the pharma players does not transgress into a limitless fetish for profiteering under any facade, pushing majority of patients succumb to life threatening ailments without having access to appropriate medicines. This defeats even the very purpose of drug innovation, as its access gets highly restricted mostly to the creamy layer of the society.

Many would consider this situation as grossly devoid of equity, unfair, unjust and in no away be allowed to continue. It is not an issue of taking moral high grounds either or scoring brownie points in a debate, but more importantly a critical ingredient to uphold ethics and values in pharma business, while re-creating its well-deserved public image, as it takes rapid strides towards inclusive growth.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Pharma Horizon: Cloud, Rainbow And Smear

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Some recent papers contemplated that the patent cliff for blockbuster drugs has already reached the zenith and early signs of recovery should be visible from 2013 onwards. However, from analysis of the currently available data, contrary to the above belief, I reckon, the downtrend in global pharma is far from over, not just yet.

One of the telltale signs of this slump is near-term patent expiry of today’s blockbuster drugs, the impact of which will continue to keep the global pharma sky overcast with clouds for some more time, especially in absence of replaceable equivalents. Interestingly, on the flip side, a beautiful rainbow, as it were, also takes shape in the horizon, ushering-in a hope to a large number of patients for improved access to newer drugs, just as it does to the generic players for accelerating business growth.

That’s the good part of it, though for the generic drug industry. However, the bad part of the emerging scenario gives rise to a lurking fear of gloom and doom, emanating from self-created evitable smears and taints, blended in vessels of despicable mindsets.

Clouds:

While having a glimpse at that following table, the underlying impact of the dark clouds looming large on the global pharma horizon cannot just be wished away:

Total Patent Expiry:

Year Value US$ Billion
2015 66
2014 34
2013 28
2012 55
Total 183 

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

Thus, the negative impact from sales lost to patent expiry of blockbuster drugs of today, though declined from US$ 55 billion in 2012 to US$ 28 billion in 2013, the same would start climbing-up again to US$ 66 billion in 2015.

If we take a look at the product-wise details, the picture pans out as under:

Top 10 ‘Patent Expiry’ in 2014:

No. Brand Company Disease Sales 2012   US$ Million Expiry
1. Copaxone Teva MultipleSclerosis 3996 May 2014
2. Nexium AstraZeneca Acid peptic 3994 May 2014
3. Micardis/HCT BoehringerIngelheim Hypertension 2217 Jan 2014
4. Sandostatin LAR Novartis Cancer 1512 June 2014
5. Exforge/HCT Novartis Hypertension 1352 Oct 2014
6. Nasonex Merck Resp. Allergy 1268 Jan 2014
7. Trilipix Abbvie Anti-lipid 1098 Jan 2014
8. Evista Eli Lilly Osteoporosis 1010 Mar 2014
9. Renagel Sanofi Chronic Kidney Disease  861 Sep. 2014
10. Restasis Allergan Chronic Dry Eye  792 May 2014

(Compiled from FiercePharma data)

The above figures, therefore, do reinforce the hypothesis that the following factors would continue to make the best brains of global pharma burning the midnight oil in search of sustainable strategic blueprints, at least, for some more time:

-       Mostly, high growth emerging markets of the world are generic drugs driven

-       Increasing cost containment pressure of Governments and/or other payor

-       Challenges from Intellectual Property (IP) and Market Access related  issues

-       Declining R&D productivity

-       Shift in overall focus for new drugs on expensive biologics

-       Markets turning more Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA)

Current strategy to deliver shareholder-value not sustainable:

Since last several years, one has witnessed, despite slowing down of sales growth, big pharma players, by and large, have not failed in delivering impressive shareholder returns. This has been possible mainly due to ruthless cost cutting across the board, restructuring of operational framework and taking measures like, increase in dividends and share repurchases.

These strategic measures, though laudable to keep the head above water, are just not sustainable over a period of time sans strong cashflow.

Thus, for a long haul, robust and consistent business growth with commensurate impact on the bottom-line generating smooth cashflow, is imperative for all these companies.

In this difficult ball game of developing sustainable cutting-edge strategies at an equally challenging time, the consolidation process within the industry would gain further momentum, where only the fittest corporations, led by great corporate brains, would manage to survive and thrive.

However, who all would successfully be able to squarely face the moments of truth, triumphantly seizing the opportunities frozen in time, in the fast changing paradigm of a seemingly VUCA world, is not more than a matter of speculation now.

The Rainbow:

As stated above, while this canopy formed with dark clouds keeps looming large at the global pharma horizon, a beautiful rainbow is simultaneously seen taking shape for the domestic Indian drug manufacturers to cash-on with well-orchestrated strategic measures. One of the critical success requirements for this sprint, is touching the tape in the finishing line to become first to introduce generic versions of the patent expired drugs, especially in the US market.

Indian pharma players have already demonstrated in the past that they do have the wherewithal of making such rare opportunities meaningful by offering affordable new drugs of high quality standards to a large number of patients, while simultaneously accelerating growth of their respective business operations.

Proven acumen even in biologics:

India has recently proven its acumen in the area of biologics too, by developing a biosimilar version of the complex biologic drug – Trastuzumab (Herceptin) of Roche, used for the treatment of breast cancer, and that too in a record time.

As is known to many, earlier in 2013 Roche decided not to defend its patents on Herceptin in India, which reportedly recorded local sales of about US$ 21 million in 2012. Many people opined at that time, it would not be easy for any company to develop biosimilar version of Trastuzumab, mainly due to the complexity involved in its clinical development. Hence, some diehards kept arguing, Roche would not be commercially impacted much for taking the above decision, at least in the near to mid term.

Surprising almost everybody, Biocon and its MNC partner Mylan not only developed an affordable biosimilar version of Trastuzumab successfully, but also got its marketing approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), thereby immensely benefitting a large number of breast cancer patients in India and hopefully even beyond.

Keeping ‘Eye on the ball’?

Details of ANDA status from the USFDA source probably indicate that several Indian players have started gearing up to move in that direction at a brisk pace, keeping their eyes well fixed on the ball.

The following table further indicates that in 2012 India ranked second, after the United States (US) in terms of number of ANDA approvals and in 2013 till October India ranks number one, overtaking the United States (US):

ANDA’s Granted in 2012 and upto October 2013):

Country ANDA 2012 ANDA (October 2013) Total Since 2007
United States 183 119 1191
India 196 138 993
Switzerland 20 12 134
Israel 28 13 133
Canada 27 13 116
Germany 20 6 107
UK 11 15 95
China 7 10 29

Smears:

Unfortunately, just out side the frame of the above kaleidoscope, one can see large spots of self created slimy smears, which can make the ‘Rainbow’ irrelevant, maintaining the horizon as cloudy even for the Indian generic players.

Continuous reports from US-FDA and UK-MHRA on fraudulent regulatory acts, lying and falsification of drug quality data by some otherwise quite capable Indian players, have just not invited disgrace for the country in this area, but also reportedly prompted regulators from other nations trying to assess whether such bans might suggest issues for drugs manufactured for their respective countries, as well.

Such despicable mindsets of the concerned key players, if remain unleashed, could make Indian Pharma gravitating down, stampeding all hopes of harvesting the incoming opportunities. 

We have one such ready example before us and that too is not an old one. The ‘Import Alert’ of the USFDA against Mohali plant of Ranbaxy, has already caused inordinate delay in the introduction of a cheaper generic version of Diovan, the blockbuster antihypertensive drug of Novartis AG, after it went off patent. It is worth noting that Ranbaxy had the exclusive right to sell a generic version of Diovan from September 21, 2012.

Another report of November 2013 states, “The Drug Controller General of India has ordered Sun Pharmaceutical, the country’s largest drug maker by market capitalization to suspend clinical research activities at its Mumbai based bio-analytical laboratory, a move that could slow down the company’s regulatory filings in India and possibly overseas as well.”

The outcome of such malpractices may go beyond the drug regulatory areas, affecting even the valuations of concerned Indian pharma companies. According to a recent report Strides Arcolab will not get US$ 250 million of the US$ 1.75 billion anticipated from the sale of its injectable drugs unit to Mylan Inc unless regulatory concerns at Agila Specialities in Bangalore are resolved.

Thus the smears though for now are confined to a few large manufacturing units of Indian Pharma, including some located overseas, may eventually play the spoil sport, trashing all hopes seen through the rainbow in the bins of shame.

Conclusion:

In the balance of probability, I believe, the clouds of uncertainty would continue to loom large over the global pharma, at least, till 2015.

However, in the midst of it, heralds a ‘never before opportunity’ for Indian pharma to cash on the early fruits of forthcoming patent expiries of today’s blockbuster drugs, not just for them, but for patients at large.

Already demonstrated capabilities of the homegrown players, trigger expectations of making it happen. The encouraging trend of grant of ANDAs in the US further reinforces this belief.

Despite all these, a lurking fear does creep in. This evitable fear finds its root in repeated fraudulent behavior of some Indian drug manufacturers, seriously compromising with cGMP standards of global drug regulators, including lying and falsification of data generated, thus playing a spoil sport by ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’, as it were.

That said, the question to ponder now is: In the ‘Pharma Horizon’ what would ultimately prevail in the short to medium term, especially in the Indian context – Clouds, The Rainbow or Smears?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.