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Deadly Climate Change Impact On Human Health: How Prepared Is India?

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It’s not uncommon to find many people, including heads of countries, expressing their serious apprehensions in public, about the scary impact of climate change. Just the last year, on November 26, 2018, BBC News captured one of such incidences with the astonishing headline: “Trump on climate change report: I don’t believe it.” The findings of this report have underscored, ‘unchecked global warming would wreak havoc on the US economy.’

Similarly, a few years ago, on September 05, 2014,CNN News 18 quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi as saying: “Climate has not changed. We have changed. Our habits have changed,’ while answering to a question on climate change. Regardless of the outcome of any split-hair analysis of the rationale behind such statements from the world leaders, such public discourse could trivialize the possible catastrophic impact of climate change on the planet earth.

Be that as it may, that climate change is taking place, carrying all its ill-effects, is real now, without any ambiguity. There is also widespread consensus among the members of the United Nations that ‘the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented during post hunter-gatherer human existence.’

It is worth noting that way back in 2001, the ‘Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’, further recorded: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities”, most importantly the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

Several ‘International Agreements’, including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change - all supported by hard scientific data, have called for immediate, quantifiable measures in each country to address the ‘wide-ranging environmental threats, such as ozone depletion and long-range transboundary air pollution.’ Against this backdrop, in this article, I shall focus on the dreadful effect of climate change in the proliferation of a wide-variety of ailments, especially infectious diseases, within a few decades. While doing so, let me first have a quick recap on what is ‘Climate Change’, in a simple language.

Climate Change – a quick recap:

According to the United Nations, ‘Climate Change is the defining issue of our time and we are at a defining moment. From shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.’

It’s important to note, although, the planet Earth’s climate is constantly changing over geological time, the current period of warming is occurring more rapidly than many past events. Scientists are concerned that the natural fluctuation or variance, is being overtaken by a rapid human-induced warming, as they emit more greenhouse gases. As these gases get trapped in the atmosphere, more heat is retained that has serious implications for the stability of the planet’s climate, even impacting human health with grave consequences. The World Health Organization (W.H.O) has also warned that the health of millions could be threatened by increases in malaria, waterborne disease and malnutrition.

Its impact human health:

The direct and indirect impact of climate change on human health is profound. Before I go into the specifics, let me indicate some of the direct ones, as captured by the Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington. This is sans any charts and maps, unlike the usual practice:

  • Increasing temperatures are causing poor air quality that can affect the heart and worsen cardiovascular disease.
  • Increasing exposure to pollen, molds, and air pollution, all of which can worsen allergies and other lung diseases, such as asthma.
  • Changes in the geographic range of disease-carrying insects, such as mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and other similar ones, which can fast spread many tropical ailments, such as dengue fever and malaria to humans.
  • Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events can cause, besides many physical illnesses, several kinds of mental illnesses – increasing both morbidity and mortality.
  • Frequent flooding events and sea level rise can contaminate water with harmful pathogens and chemicals, potentially causing food-borne and waterborne illnesses.
  • Changing weather patterns affect the quality and quantity of nutritious foods with increasing incidence of under-nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies.
  • Additional stress placed on hospital and public health systems, could limit people’s ability to obtain adequate health care during extreme weather events and disease outbreaks.

Most specific and the deadly one:

The World Health Organization (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses,’ clearly flagged that ‘Changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change.’

Citing a pertinent analogy to explain the reason, it said: “Humans have known that climatic conditions affect epidemic diseases from long before the role of infectious agents was discovered, late in the nineteenth century. Roman aristocrats retreated to hill resorts each summer to avoid malaria. South Asians learnt early that, in high summer, strongly curried foods were less likely to cause diarrhea.”

Would pharma players convert these problems into opportunities?

Curiously, some pharmaceutical investors are researching to fathom potential business opportunities lying underneath the above problem, especially for vaccines and newer antimicrobials. It’s probably a blessing in disguise not just for the drug companies, but also for the general public, considering the following two issues, prevailing in the current scenario:

  • According to W.H.O, Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is an increasingly serious threat to global public health. It threatens the effective prevention and treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi, causing the success of even major surgery and cancer chemotherapy seriously compromised.
  • ‘Pharmaceutical companies are backing away from a growing threat that could kill 10 million people a year by 2050’, reported a July 19, 2018 article. This is because, ‘Antibiotics Aren’t Profitable Enough for Big Pharma to Make More,’ wrote another article, published in Bloomberg Businessweek, on May 3, 2019.

Interestingly, a recent report analyzed and evaluated how this can be done, and which companies will be benefitted most in that process. 

“Climate change to fetch a big business opportunity for pharma”:

As reported on July 25, 2019, Morgan Stanley told investors that climate change will cause an increased prevalence and rapid spread of infectious diseases that may be a boon for some drug companies with big vaccine portfolios. It also highlighted, between 383 million and 725 million more people may be exposed to Zika, dengue and other diseases by 2050, depending on the pace and severity of global warming.

The analysts estimated, especially 7 pharma companies will be critical to fighting infectious diseases brought on by climate change. According to the research note of thebank, ‘the USD 500 billion infectious disease market could see demand for an added USD 125 billion in new vaccines, or as much as USD 200 billion assuming premium pricing for more complex new treatments.’

The top possible gainers:

Identifying the top possible gainers, Morgan Stanley apprised, vaccine development being more difficult and expensive, companies that are already in that business will have an upper hand.

Hence, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline are expected at the top, given their existing pipelines and manufacturing capacity. Takeda and Merck both have vaccines in the works for dengue fever, one of the diseases that climate change is likely to exacerbate. Janssen and Pfizer are both active in the vaccines market, but would need to establish new research programs to take on tropical diseases. ‘Moderna’ is also in a good position because it has demonstrated a potential pipeline for drugs combating the Zika virus., as Morgan Stanley further elaborated.

Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley isn’t the only bank looking at investment opportunities from climate change, on July 24, 2019, Goldman Sachs also, reportedly, said it was hiring a sustainable-finance group that is looking into issues related to sustainability. Thus, on the positive side, climate change could fetch a big business opportunity for many pharma players, across the world.

600 million people at risk for climate change in India:

On June 24, 2019, a reputed national business news daily of India reported, “600 million people at risk: Climate change may soon turn critical in India.” Against this threat, the current public health care infrastructure in the country, continues to remain fragile, as stated in India’s National Health Profile, 13th Issue.

It also states, the cost of treatment has been on the rise in India and it has led to inequity in access to health care services. Intriguingly, the country spends around 1.02 percent of its GDP towards public health, which has remained static to declining over a long period of time. Although, health insurance is a growing segment, it hasn’t taken off fully. Several measures are needed to improve and expand insurance coverage.

Further, according to the report by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) in the US, India is facing shortage of 600,000 doctors and 2 million nurses. This report was widely quoted by the Indian media, on April 14, 2019.

These facts give a perspective on what is India’s level of preparedness to address the critical health issues related to climate change, especially the havoc that the dreaded infectious diseases can cause to so many.

Conclusion:

Astute health policy makers, including a large section of the top political echelon of the country are, apparently, aware of various ill effects of climate change. They also seem to be cognizant that these are likely to accelerate the worsening health problems of the population, including infectious diseases, asthma and other respiratory diseases.

Assuming, new and modern drugs will keep coming to help treat these ailments, do we have a functioning and efficient public health infrastructure to grapple with such issues. What about high out of pocket expenditure towards healthcare for a large section of the population, regardless of Ayushman Bharat?

As the (W.H.O) publication - ‘Climate change and human health – Risks and Responses’ recommended, ‘early planning for health is essential to reduce, hopefully avoid, near future and long-term health impacts of global climate change. The optimal solution, however, is in the hands of governments, society and every individual—a commitment to a change in values, to enable a full transition to sustainable development.’

That said, as India is also a signatory to the latest Paris Agreement on Climate Change, can we assume, India will walk the talk to significantly contain its deadly impact on human health? How is India preparing itself to meet this great challenge of Probably it is anybody’s guess, at least, as on date?

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Managing Pharma Investors’ Expectations When The Chips Are Down

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Triggered by several critical factors, over a relatively short period of time, a downward spiral is visible with most Indian Pharma stocks, with a significant erosion in market capitalization of many large players in the country.

A set of important factors has been fueling this current downturn since around the last four years. These include, issues related to serious regulatory non-compliance with US-FDA and other foreign drug regulators, pricing pressure both in the domestic and the overseas markets, including the United States, delayed approval of several new generic drugs in the number-one pharma market of the world, for various reasons. Initial rollout period of GST expected to commence on July 1, 2017, may also prompt some major readjustments in the distribution setting of many pharma organizations. This has been further compounded with the wholesalers’ and retailers’ demand for compensation for any losses on input credit arising out of this critical reform.

As eroding market cap generally leads to commensurately lower market valuation of a company, it adversely impacts company’s many business growth related activities, which encompasses attracting low cost – high value investments, and M&A related activities, besides many others. Consequently, this negative swing has alarmed many investors, making them more demanding on company performance – uninterrupted, almost at any cost, as it were.

Not much headroom for necessary course correction:

Unrelenting expectations of this nature from the investors, inclusive of activist shareholders, to continue driving the business growth engine up the steep slope of ever increasing return on investment, is not expected to die down, anytime soon.

They may not be willing to leave enough headroom for the respective pharma management teams to realign their growth path with the changing and challenging needs of time, if it adversely impacts business even in the short-term. Nonetheless, if it is not allowed, the tailspin is likely to continue, as has been happening since, at least, the last couple of years, pushing the business at a dangerous level of sustainability.

Such demand of the investors and shareholders, irrespective of the gravity of the situation where their respective companies are in, may not be too uncommon, even in the global arena. However, many experts are now raising a key question in this area. In this article, I shall try to look at this issue, not just from the investors’ perspective, but also from what the concerned pharma players can and should do in this area, sooner the better.

A pertinent question needs to be addressed:

This important and relevant question is: what is the accountability of the investors, if their pressure for performance when the company is at a crossroad of this nature, causes a long-term irreparable damage to the business?

The very issue has been discussed immaculately in an article titled, “The Error at The Heart of Corporate Leadership”, published in the May-June 2017 issue of the Harvard Business Review.

The paper reiterates that attributing ownership of the corporation to its investors involves a challenging problem of accountability. This is because, ‘shareholders or private investors have no legal duty to protect or serve the companies whose shares they own and are shielded by the doctrine of limited liability from legal responsibility for those companies’ debts and misdeeds.’ Moreover, they are both physically and psychologically distant from the activities of the companies they invest in, and may generally buy and sell these shares without restrictions.

Nevertheless, such strong and ever increasing demands put the top pharma managers under increasing pressure to deliver faster and more predictable returns, regardless of the headwind that the business is facing. The issue becomes more complex when temporary-holders of large blocks of shares intervene to reconstitute a company’s board, change its management, or restructure its finances to drive up the share price, only to sell out and move on to another target, without ever having to answer for their intervention’s impact on the company or other parties, the article highlights.

Export business – the pain points:

“Pharma stocks take a beating on renewed US FDA scrutiny” – flashed the headline of a recent media report of June 12, 2017. As I see it, in the export business, especially in the top pharma market in the world, there appears to be a strong possibility of further worsening the business environment, especially for the Indian drug exporters.

Wave after wave of US-FDA import bans involving many India made drug formulations and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API), since over last four years, have significantly affected the short-term export sales of the domestic pharma exporters. Alongside, these have seriously dented the image of the Indian pharma players, collectively, which encompasses the critical area of regulatory compliance – to offer well-documented safe and effective drugs, as required by the regulator, for the patients in the United States.

The situation gets messier with media headlines, such as, one from Bloomberg’s on January 24, 2017, conveying to the world community – “Document Shredding at Night Raises FDA Eyebrows During India Visit.”

Besides current drug pricing pressure, President Donald Trump’s election pledge for local manufacturing of products consumed in the United States, for more job creation in the country, sends another possible storm signal in this area. This is serious too, as Indian generic drug producers cater to around 40 percent of the total generic drug consumption in America.

Overcoming the odds in export business:

While taking corrective and effective measures for a sustainable long-term business performance, doing the same things more intensely that precipitated the current crisis, would be counterproductive.

Improving the situation, would also call for a strong preparedness for launching new generic products at a regular interval. However, in tandem, there is a crying need for the concerned pharma companies to take a pause, and conclude, a well-structured and expert-guided corporate introspection and brainstorming process, on priority. This will help them to arrive at a set of actionable strategic plans to effectively address each of the pain points, in a meticulous and time-bound manner.

Investors must necessarily be taken on board by opening appropriate communication channels, accordingly. This is to enable them to understand and accept the reasons for a short-term pain for a sustainable long-term gain. The tangible results of corrective measures should subsequently unfold to all concerned, with minor course corrections on-the-run, wherever necessary.

Domestic business – the pain points:

This is again another complex issue, which is often manifested through pressure on drug prices. The blame for such a situation, though originates from somewhere else, generally falls on the Government and the drug price regulator, for obvious reasons. It has a palpable boomerang effect, that is brought out by various research studies, and captured in consumers and the expert opinion, such as one that was published by the Washington Post on June 14, 2017 with the title, “The pharmaceutical industry puts profits above people.”

In the United States, where the drug pricing pressure is widely believed to have primarily originated from the escalating cost containment pressure of the Government and the key health care providers – triggered by a dangerous drug-pricing trend. Whereas in India, in addition to the latter that is related to non-schedule branded generic drugs, it is mostly related high out of pocket expenses on drugs, attempts to dodge various drug price regulations, and ignoring several ethical marketing practices related issues. The net outcome of all this is growing trust deficit on the pharma industry, in general.

Let me illustrate this point with a very contemporary example.  On May 18, 2017, Reuters reported, “India’s drug pricing regulator has demanded explanations from 65 domestic and global drug makers for selling new forms of essential diabetes and antibiotic drugs without its approval.” Interestingly, these companies reportedly include many big names, such as, Abbott Laboratories, Sanofi, Novartis and Indian firms such as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Lupin.

According to a circular of the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) of May 17, 2017, the above companies have allegedly launched formulations by altering an essential drug formulation with strength/dosage other than as specified in the Drug Price Control Order (DPCO) 2013 or combination with another drug not under price control, without even applying for price approval from NPPA as required. NPPA also doesn’t seem to be sure, whether such Fixed Dose Combinations (FDC) are rational or irrational and have the approval of the Central Drug Standard Control Organization (CDSCO).

If so, it’s indeed a sad development and a sorry state of affair, especially for those companies, which do some chest-thumping on ethics and compliance, often browbeating many Indian players, especially on USFDA related issues, besides pharma marketing practices.

As on date, Union Ministry of Health has banned several hundreds of such FDCs – on the ground of being irrational, launched without proper regulatory approval, lacking in therapeutic efficacy and safety profile, which may even cause harm to patients. March 11, 2016 notification of CDSCO banned 296 irrational FDCs.

However, many pharma players have succeeded in obtaining stay orders against almost all such regulatory bans from various High Courts. Nevertheless, the good news is, from July 2017, the Supreme Court is expected to hear all these cases, collectively. There could be another possible downturn in the market, if the Government wins the case.

Overcoming the odds in domestic business:

In these specific areas, there doesn’t seem to be any other option left to satisfy the long-term interest of the investors, other than addressing the ethics, values and compliance issues of the company on the ground, head on. It doesn’t really matter, what is displayed on the subject in their respective websites. Thus, in this area too, there is a crying need for a well-structured and expert-guided corporate introspection and brainstorming process to disrupt the status quo from its very root.

The above process would help the pharma players to arrive at a set of actionable strategic plans to effectively address the ethics and compliance issues in all the pain points – regulatory, marketing or financial, in a meticulous and time-bound manner. Alongside, all the stakeholders, including the investors, to be taken on board through customized content and the engagement platforms, to put the companies back into the long-term growth trajectory.

In conclusion:

Investors are very important, but if they aren’t an integral part of the corporate management team, should not try to overwhelm the business management process, especially for any short term financial gain. Attributing such authority to investors, involves a challenging problem of accountability for action, as they can get in or out of their investments at any time they choose to do so.

However, it’s also one of the key responsibilities of the management to listen to them, seriously. Take them on board by appropriately explaining to them in every critical situation, the broad strategic direction that the company would follow in pursuit of excellence. Thereafter, demonstrable outcome of all management action against the top operational goals, should be placed before them at a periodic interval, on an ongoing basis.

This process, if carried out with absolute transparency, integrity and seriousness, could help the Indian pharma players getting enough breathing space from the investors, for making the right operational interventions, before it’s too late.

Earlier this year, stepping down of former CEO of GSK – Andrew Witty, was reported to be due to pressure from investors for below par sales and profit in the past three years, besides a few other reasons. Another recent report of June 15, 2017 on “rebel investors looking to remake the board of Mylan” would possibly reinforce this point, further.

Outside the pharma industry, such a situation is not uncommon now, even in India. Besides, what happened recently in Tata Sons,  the June 14, 2017 media headline highlighting “Infosys flags ‘activist shareholder’ as risk factor”, vindicates the same point, yet again.

Thus, managing pharma investors’ expectations through a process of continuous engagement with them, effectively, especially when the chips are down, as it is today, is so critical for the long-term success and sustainability of pharma business.  Maintaining the status quo any further, would possibly make a high-flying pharma player to experience the strong gravitational pull, uncontrolled, with its its serious but avoidable consequences.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Union Budget 2017-18: ‘Modicare’ Remains A Pie In The Sky

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Universal Health Care (UHC), as narrated in the National Health Policy (NHP) 2015 (NHP 2015 Draft) of Narendra Modi Government, making health a ‘Fundamental Right’ for Indian citizens, was considered a profound step by many, both in its both content and intent.

Being enormously enthused with this development, in my article of April 06, 2015 in this blog, titled “Would Affordable ‘Modicare’ Remain Just A Pipe Dream In India?”, I also termed this new draft health policy as ‘Modicare’, just as a few others did. If implemented both in its letter and in spirit, NHP 2015 has the potential to overshadow even the ‘Obamacare’ of the United States, almost hands down. Although it’s an altogether different story that under the new President Donald Trump’s administration, this Act faces a real threat of extinction, at least, in its current Avatar.

Is health care also a serious political issue?

Prompted by what has been happening in the oldest democracy in the world, the above fundamental question does surface. Its answer could be both, ‘yes’ or ‘no’, depending on the voters’ awareness on the subject, and the importance attached to it for individual well-being, including work productivity.

However, in this article, to impress upon how important are the promises on health care to the common citizens in the oldest democracy, I shall draw two back to back examples of pre-election campaign promises related to universal health care in the Unites states, where the answer to the above question has been an emphatic ‘yes’. Thereafter, I would explore what is happening in India in this area to fathom what could its answer possibly be in the largest democracy of the world.

The United States:

On November 4, 2008, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois was elected as the president of the United States. Just in a year’s time ‘The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’ popularly known as ‘Obamacare’, was passed in the Senate on December 24, 2009, and passed in the house on March 21, 2010. It was signed into law by President Obama on March 23rd, 2010 and upheld in the supreme court on June 28, 2012.

By enacting this historic health care reform legislation, President Obama fulfilled his election campaign pledge to provide healthcare to all in the United States of America, almost immediately after coming to power.

Similarly, during his 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump pledged to repeal the ‘Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)’, if elected, calling it a “total disaster.” Accordingly, on January 20, 2017 – the same day of becoming the 45th president of the United States, in his first executive order, President Trump, told government agencies to scale back aspects of the Affordable Care Act – fulfilling his pledge to undo Barack Obama’s signature healthcare law that made medical services accessible to millions of Americans.

Whether, it is a good or bad decision may not be a point of discussion in this article, but so far as the pre-election pledge on health care reform is concerned, both the Presidents – Obama and Trump indeed ‘walked the talk’.

India:

Besides the above two examples, the general expectation of the stakeholders in India was that in the priority agenda of the new Government health care will feature much higher than ever before. This was because the main ruling party of the Government in power now had promised to deliver a robust healthcare reform in its Election Manifesto 2014, if it is voted to power. Let me just reproduce below some of those critical promises:

  • India needs a holistic health care system that is universally accessible, affordable, effective and drastically reduces the out of pocket spending on health.
  • The Party accords high priority to the health sector, which is crucial for securing the economy.
  • As NRHM has failed to meet the objectives, it will be radically reformed.
  • The overarching goal of health care would be to provide, ‘Health Assurance to all Indians and to reduce the out of pocket spending on health care’, with the help of state governments.
  • The current situation calls for radical reforms in the health care system with regards to national health care programs and delivery, medical education and training and financing of health care.

The manifesto then goes into the details of each reform areas, after stating, “the last health care policy dates back to 2002; India now needs a comprehensive health care policy to address the complex health care challenges, keeping in view the developments in the health care sector and the changing demographics. The party will initiate the New Health Policy.”

This expectation flickered yet again:

This expectation flickered yet again, when just on the eve of the 2017-18 Union Budget Session, no less than the President of India, honorable Pranab Mukherjee on the last Tuesday reportedly reiterated that his Government assures ‘Health care for all’.

It’s about three years since the new Government is firmly placed on the saddle, after being voted to power. Regrettably, much promised, the new and comprehensive health care policy of India is still not in place. Could it mean, unlike in the US, pre-election political pledges on health care is still not considered a top priority area for quick implementation either by the Indian voters or the winning political parties, post-election? Probably, it doesn’t also sound as vote catching as a plethora of other ‘developmental activities’, ‘Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)’ and ‘GDP growth’ do, for winning a national election in our soil.

In India, most of the population think or feel about medical treatment and prevention of diseases mostly when we ourselves, or our near and dear ones suffer from serious morbidity, or are almost in a dying condition from serious ailments. At that moment of truth, most of us face almost an insurmountable barrier to treatment access due to individual ‘affordability’ condition. In the absence of enough decent public health facilities, one is compelled to go for private medical services that cost a bomb, most of which being out of pocket. At other times, it does not seem to matter much to many, or becomes an integral part of a burning social, political or economic agenda. It has thus far remained a dormant need, which needs to be brought to open by creating greater awareness in ambitious India, even during and after bringing a Government to power.

The fastest growing nation incurs lowest public health expenditure:

Even post ‘Demonetization’ exercise in the country, India would continue to remain the fastest growing large country in the world. However, the Government allocates just around one percent of GDP on public healthcare expenditure, ranking among the lowest in the world, in this area. Regrettably, there does not seem to be an adequate realization both among the public, corporate head honchos, including a large section of the country’s highly partisan media that sans sharp focus on health care, this immaculate growth story can get adversely impacted, in the long run.

Incoherent union health budgets sans any report card on achievements:

Be that as it may, in this article, I shall present before you a snapshot of the health care budgetary measures announced by the Finance Minister in his Budget speech both in 2016-17 vis-a-vis in 2017-18. Thereafter, I would try to explore how incoherent these are, and without any comprehensive status report on time-bound set goals. This is important, as taxpayers hard earned money was spent on those ‘goodies’, probably to give an impression that health care has not been totally left out by the Government during its annual budgetary allocation.

To demonstrate how incoherent and ad hoc these health budgets are, let me place before you what were the key areas of Union Budgetary allocations in 2016-17. If I may refer to my article of March 07, 2016 in this Blog titled, “Healthcare: Unwrapping The Union Budget (2016-17)”, we shall find that the key features were as follows:

The previous Union Budget of 2016-17:

  • The Government will launch a new health protection scheme, which will provide health cover up to Rs. One lakh (Rs. 100,000) per family. For senior citizens, age 60 years and above, belonging to this category, an additional top-up package up to Rs. 30,000 will be provided.
  • To reinvigorate the supply of generic drugs 3,000 stores under Prime Minister’s Jan Aushadhi Yojana will be opened during 2016-17.
  • Starting a ‘National Dialysis Services Program’ to provide dialysis services in all district hospitals. The funds were to be made available through PPP mode under the National Health Mission. To reduce the cost, the budget proposed exemption of certain parts of dialysis equipment from basic customs duty, excise/CVD and SAD.

I am not sure how many stakeholders, if any, are aware of the exact status report on those proposals of the last year’s Union Budget allocation for health care. If that’s the prevailing situation, we now get another small bundle of different sets of ‘goodies’ in the Union Budget 2017-18, as follows:

Current Union Budget of 2017-18:

Even in the absence of a comprehensive National Health Policy, there are many other health related critical issues that may eventually impede the GDP growth rate of the country. A few examples of which are as follows:

  • The estimated premature deaths caused by cardiac ailments, stroke and diabetes, reportedly, will result in a loss of national income of over US$ 250 billion in the coming decade,
  • Mental health becoming a silent epidemic, affecting around 13 percent of the population and just 10 percent of them getting treatment,
  • Millions of families are unable to get access to secondary and tertiary care services for diagnosis and treatment of serious diseases, such as cancer, as they cannot afford private facilities, which gets compounded as India records one of the highest out-of-pocket health expenditure in the world, higher than even many lower income, lower-middle income, as well as the middle-income countries.

Nevertheless, the Union Finance Minister in his 2017-18 budget proposal announced a strong resolve for elimination of:

  • Kala-azar or Leishmaniasis and filaria by 2017
  • Leprosy by 2018
  • Measles by 2020
  • Tuberculosis by 2025

Unquestionably, these are grossly inadequate, especially, in young and ambitious India. Moreover, very people industry watchers would know whether the deadline set for each is achievable, and a periodic report card on the same will be made public or not.

Similarly, the government’s determination to reduce Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 28 by 2019 (39 in 2014) and Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) to 100 in 2020 (167 in 2011-13) is also praiseworthy. However, both these, including tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis and treatment interventions, were a part of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for India. These are an ongoing exercise set out in the Millennium Declaration in 2000. Moreover, why annual budgetary allocation only for those two now, out of 8 MDG goals?

A few other equally ad hoc health care measures, probably picked up at random, and announced by the Union Finance Minister in his February 01, 2017 budget speech were the following:

  • Rs 6,000 financial aid for pregnant women to cover hospital admission, vaccination and nutritional food.
  • Two new All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) at Jharkhand and Gujarat.
  • 1.5 lakh health sub centers to be converted to Health Wellness Centers
  • Amendment of the Drugs and Cosmetics Rules to ensure availability of drugs at reasonable prices and promote the use of generic medicines
  • New rules for regulating medical devices to be formulated, which will be internationally harmonized and attract investment into this sector
  • Structural reforms in the medical practice and education.
  • For senior citizens, Aadhar based Smart Cards containing their health details. A beginning will be made through a pilot in 15 districts during 2017-18.

By all these, the government has proposed 27.7 percent increase in allocation for Ministry of Health and Family Welfare to Rs.47, 352.51 Crore in the latest budget from Rs 37,061.55 Crore in 2016-17, on the current abysmally low base of around 1 percent of GDP. A sizeable chunk of this budget is expected to go towards setting up of two new AIIMS and for conversion of 1.5 lakh health sub centers to Health Wellness Centers. The National Health Mission (NHM) for the entire nation, which the Government earlier said is not working, receives an increase of Rs. 3,000 Crore. According to media reports, the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) also considers this budget allocation as a frugal one.

Besides the general expectation for the beginning of a Universal Health Care (UHC) regime in India, pharma industry had generally expected the following immediate term relief, which also found no mention in the budget:

  • Corporate tax cut
  • Extension of time line for weighted deductions of R&D expenditure and adding filing fees and clinical trial expenses under the exemption.
  • Rationalization in excise duty for APIs to bring it on par with formulations.
  • Changes to excise duty due to impending implementation of goods and service tax (GST) Withdrawal of service tax on health insurance
  • Exemption of input service tax on support services

Conclusion:

The reason why I brought ‘Modicare’ in my budget discussion is that it needs well-articulated budgetary allocation, even for just the beginning of its implementation, besides having a robust policy in place. Even on the eve of the 2017-18 Union Budget Session, no less than the President of India had reiterated that his Government assures ‘health care for all’ – further rekindling this hope.

In the absence of a well-charted pathway for public health care in India, no wonder that this budget, in my opinion, demonstrates a clear lack of direction, incoherent and inconsistent, just as the previous ones.

I hasten to add that the Government’s focus on rural infrastructure and development, providing financial benefit to farmers, help building affordable houses, creating new jobs, ensuring ease of doing business, putting more disposable income in the hands of the people are well appreciated. However, none can possibly refute the dictum, especially in the young and highly ambitious India that: “It takes a healthy nation to build a wealthy nation”.

The bottom line, therefore, is, the fastest growing nation of the world continues to feel wise and smart with its lowest expenditure on public health. It also leaves a general impression that the Government has removed from its list of priority all the pledges made on health care, before, during and after having a firm grip on the leash of power. Consequently, this has made ‘Modicare’ no more than a pie in the sky, as it were, for many, even after years of sustenance of an indomitable hope of it coming to fruition.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Drug Price Control in India: When A Local Media Goes Against, A Global CEO Doesn’t

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‘Variety is the spice of life’, as the good old saying goes. The week, just gone by, was indeed packed with a wide variety of surprises, well encompassing various important areas, some of which are as follows:

  • Effective November 08, 2016 midnight, Indian currency notes of ₹500 and ₹1000 denominations ceased to remain legal tenders. This demonetization followed extensive media coverage, both national and international, on unprecedented administrative and public chaos around this otherwise bold and good intent.
  • The same day witnessed much unexpected triumph of Trump as the 45th President-Elect and the Commander-in-Chief of the United States of America. It is entirely a different matter though, that post-election, millions of Americans reportedly took to streets across the United states to vent their fury over the billionaire’s election victory.
  • On November 07, 2016, a well-known Indian business daily, ‘The Economic Times’, in its editorial, apparently expressed its solidarity with the pharma industry, in general, to do away with drug price control in India. The key reason for this advocacy, as I could sense, is to encourage the drug players to grow by making more profits. I respect this view of the editor will all humility. However, the point that I am unable to ferret out though, what happens to especially the poor patients in such an eventuality. With hands-on experience in the pharma industry over several decades, it appears to me that the editorial suggestions, as well, grossly lack in requisite depth of understanding of the core issue.
  • On November 09, 2016, quite opposite to what the above editorial of ‘The Economic Times’, the current global CEO of GlaxoSmithKline – Sir Andrew Witty, in an interview, strongly argued in favor of the necessity of drug price control in India, that improves access to medicines for a vast majority of the country’s population. To substantiate this point Sir Andrew said in another interview on the same day, “We’ve seen demand of products jump 45 percent after the price is cut by 20 percent. The problem arises when we don’t have supply to cater to the demand, leaving patients frustrated. A bit more predictability (on the part of government) will help.”
  • As if this diametrically opposite views are not enough, on November 10, 2016, the well-known civil society organization – ‘All India Drug Action Network (AIDAN)’, reportedly sent legal notices to the CEO of Niti Aayog CEO and secretaries to the Health Ministry, Department of Pharmaceuticals and Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion over their talks to cut the powers of the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA). AIDAN has termed this Government move “anti-national” and “anti-people”, further adding that it affects an ongoing case at the Supreme Court over various aspects of the drug price control.

In this article, I shall restrict myself to the pharma related issue of the past week, especially on the interesting advocacy through editorial, against the drug price control in India. Simultaneously, I shall also underscore its relevance in the country, primarily to improve access to medicines for millions of Indians, as articulated by one of the leading voices from the global pharma industry.

Is the yardstick of judging pharma industry different?

This particular question floats in my mind because of several reasons. One such is, almost regularly sponsoring fully paid trips for doctors, especially in an exotic foreign land, by many pharma companies. Such practices of the drug companies are generally inferred, more often than not spearheaded by a large section of the media, as dubious means of the organization to entice, or influence prescribing decisions of physicians in favor of their respective high priced brands, ignoring the health and economic interest of patients.

In similar context, just after having a quick glance over a not so important article, written on various operations at the headquarter of a global drug company situated in a beautiful locale of the world, when one focuses the fine print at the end as a disclaimer, which reads: “This reporter was in (name of the country) on an invitation by (name of the global company)…, do the readers arrive at the same conclusion on ‘gratification’, as above, and its consequent possible outcome on pharma related writings of these reporters?

Can the concerned members of the ‘Fourth Estate’ possibly claim desired intellectual independence in their analysis of a situation involving such companies or their trade associations, even after the above disclaimer? Or for that matter, related publications too, which allow acceptance of such avoidable ‘gratis’ by its reporters? Shouldn’t such incidences, whenever these happen, irrespective of who availed these, be perceived in the same light?

In the current scenario, this issue is something for us to seriously ponder. This is mainly because, for following similar practices, why should there be two different yardsticks to gauge the quality of professional independence of two different otherwise highly respectable professions?

This reminds me of a great pharma reporter, writing for an internationally acclaimed business daily, mainly on the drug industry and healthcare. I met him in India a few years back on his invitation. Although, I shall not take either his or his paper’s name. This is to show respect to our free and frank interaction. He flew down to India with his employer paying all the pharma reporting work related expenses. He met with all those in the Indian drug industry that he wanted to, primarily to capture the nuances of the thought pattern of large and small Indian pharma players. I was so impressed with his intellect, and independent professional outlook, like all those who met him during his that specific visit to India. Even now, I can feel his independent perspective, as I read his articles. It would be great to experience similar feelings, while reading pharma related articles and editorials, in various publications of my own country. At the same time, I shall be delighted to be proved wrong regarding any such possibilities in this area.

That said, I shall now move on to the relevance of drug price control in India.

Any relevance of drug price control in a ‘Free Market Economy’?

No doubt, this is a very pertinent question. Equally pertinent answers are also available in a 2014 paper titled, “Competition Issues in the Indian Pharmaceuticals Sector” of Delhi School Economics (DSE). The paper deals with issues related to failure of ‘Free Market Economy’, despite intense competition, especially for branded generic drugs in India.

Quoting a practicing surgeon, the DSE article states: “Sometimes it could be just plain ignorance about the availability of a cheaper alternative that makes doctors continue to prescribe costlier brands. But one cannot ignore the role of what is euphemistically called marketing “incentive”, which basically mean the inappropriate influence pharmaceutical companies exert on doctors. This runs deep. Hospitals choose to stock only certain drugs in their in-house pharmacies and insist that hospitalized patients buy drugs only from the hospital pharmacy. Drug companies sell drugs to hospitals at a price much lower than what the patient is charged, further incentivizing the hospital to stock their products. The cheaper brands often get left out in this game.”

Further, in an ideal free-market economic model, for all approved branded generics with exactly the same formulation, having the same claimable efficacy, safety and quality standards, though marketed by different pharma companies, competitive forces should prompt some parity in their pricing.

Any generic brand with exactly the same formulation as others and offering the same therapeutic value, but costing significantly more, should ideally attract a lesser number of customers, if and where purchase decisions are taken by the consumers directly. However, for prescription medicines it’s not so. The well proven process of consumers exercising their own choice to select a brand, mostly influenced by advertising or word of mouth, does not happen at all.

The Government attributes ‘Market Failure’ for pharmaceuticals:

In its price notification dated July 10, 2014, the NPPA has categorically stated the following:

  • There exist huge inter-brand price differences in branded-generics, which is indicative of a severe market failure, as different brands of the same drug formulation, which are identical to each other in terms of active ingredient(s), strength, dosage, route of administration, quality, product characteristics, and intended use, vary disproportionately in terms of price.
  • It is observed that, the different brands of the drug formulation may sometimes differ in terms of binders, fillers, dyes, preservatives, coating agents, and dissolution agents, but these differences are not significant in terms of therapeutic value.
  • In India the market failure for pharmaceuticals can be attributed to several factors, but the main reason is that the demand for medicines is largely prescription driven and the patient has very little choice in this regard.
  • Market failure alone may not constitute sufficient grounds for government intervention, but when such failure is considered in the context of the essential role of pharmaceuticals play in the area of public health, which is a social right, such intervention becomes necessary, especially when exploitative pricing makes medicines generally unaffordable and beyond the reach of most and also puts the huge financial burden in terms of out-of-pocket expenditure on health care.

Civil Society echoed the same sentiment:

In this context, it is important to note that seven large Civil Society Organizations in a letter of August 20, 2014 addressed to Mr. Ananth Kumar, the present Minister of Chemicals and Fertilizers with a copy to Prime Minister Modi, articulated similar views, as follows:

“Limiting all price regulation only to a list of 348 medicines and specified dosages and strengths in the DPCO 2013 goes against the policy objective of making medicines affordable to the public. The National List of Essential Medicines, a list of 348 rational and cost-effective medicines, is not the basis for production, promotion and prescription in India. In reality the most frequently prescribed and consumed medicines are not listed in the NLEM.”

Last week, AIDAN has also indicated that the reported Government move to curtail the power vested on the NPPA for drug price, affects an ongoing case at the Supreme Court over various aspects of the drug price control.

Are medicines cheapest in India…really?

It is often highlighted that medicines cost much cheaper, if not the cheapest, in India. This is too simplistic a view on this subject. It compares the prevailing Indian drug prices in Rupee, against the prices of similar drugs in other countries, just by simple conversion of the foreign currencies, such as, US$ and Euro into Rupee. To make the comparison realistic and credible, Indian drug prices should be compared against the same in other countries, only after applying the following two critical parameters:

  • Purchasing Power Parity and Per Capita Income
  • Quantum of per capita ‘Out of Pocket Expenditure’ on drugs

The Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) with the help of academia and other experts had earlier deliberated on this issue in one of its reports on patented drug pricing. The report established that post application of the above two parameters, medicines in India are virtually as expensive as in the developed world, causing great inconvenience to the majority of patients in the country.

Hence, common patients expectedly look for some kind of critical intervention by the Government, at least, on the prices of essential drugs in India.

‘Cannot do away with Drug Price Control’ – said the New Government:

On August 24, 2015 in an interview with a national business daily, V K Subburaj, the Secretary of the Department of Pharmaceuticals commented, “Price control on drugs a shot in the arm for health care” and “the Government cannot do away with it.”

He argued, “A large section of the population is poor. Suddenly, your system is disturbed if you have to spend more on drugs. Drugs are an important component of health care expenditure.”

Accepting the fact that in India, big and small companies investing in research would need more money, Mr. Subburaj said, “In India, we can’t afford to remove controls as the burden of disease is high.”

All stakeholders expect that there is some predictability in what the Government says. Can the stand taken by the policymakers change in just a year’s time, probably wilting under industry pressure?

Conclusion:

The drug price control in India is in vogue since 1970, uninterruptedly. The retail audit data continue to indicate that the growth of the Indian pharma industry, over the last four and half decade long price control regime, has been nothing less than spectacular. This would consequently mean, increasing consumption of drugs, leading to improved access to medicines in India, including its hinterland, though may still not be good enough. Sir Andrew Witty of GSK also articulated the same view, just the last week. It’s a different story altogether that some of the industry sponsored expensive market surveys attempt to wish it away.

Coincidentally, at the commencement of drug price control regime in India in 1970, almost all the players in the ‘Top 10’ pharma league table of the country, were multi-national drug companies. Today the situation has just reversed. Out of ‘Top 10’, about seven are home grown drug companies. Many of these companies were born post 1970. Without frequent M&As by the pharma MNCs, this number could have been probably higher today.

By the way, what’s the span of drug price control in India really – just about 18 percent of the total domestic pharma market now? Around 80 percent of the local drug market continues to remain in the ‘free-pricing’ and ‘high-profit’ zone.

When it comes to profitability, it is worth mentioning, the promoter of the so called ‘low margin’ generic pharma company – Sun Pharma, is the second-richest person in India. He created his initial wealth from India, despite ostensible ‘growth stunting’ price control.

Keeping this in perspective, is it not baffling to fathom the reason behind a local business publication’s apparently endorsing the advocacy initiatives of pharma industry against drug price control through an editorial, when a well-regarded global pharma CEO expresses a strong favorable view in this regard?

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.