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‘Rigged’ Payment System Limits Biosimilar Access

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As often discussed, market entry of biosimilars, in general, brings a new hope not just for many patients, but also to biosimilar drug manufacturers – planning to get marketing approvals of these drugs in the United States, the El Dorado of global pharma industry.

Stakeholder expectations keep increasing manifold as biosimilars offer cheaper treatment options with biologic drugs in many life-threatening and rare diseases. However, biosimilars still remain an unfulfilled promise.

The January 2018 paper by Trinity Partners on “The State of US Biosimilars Market Access” in the largest drug market of the world makes an important observation in this regard. It says, the promise of biosimilars offering cost-saving competition in the lucrative US biologic market, remains largely unfulfilled.

As on date, adoption of biosimilars has been hindered by lack of market access due to complex contracting dynamics, besides regulatory and legal uncertainty, and a general lack of clinical comfort with biosimilars.

Consequently, current state of biosimilar acceptance and access appear too insignificant. More so, as compared to traditional small molecule generic markets where their use is fueled by automatic substitution and payer formularies, over higher priced branded reference drugs.

It would not have been difficult, especially for the innovative biologic drug makers to brush this important study aside, had the US-FDA Commissioner – Scott Gottlieb would not have voiced what he did in March this year.

With this perspective, I shall discuss in this article, how access to biosimilar drugs are getting limited. In doing so, I shall begin with what the US-FDA Commissioner has recently highlighted in this area.

Yet another barrier:

As reported by Bloomberg on March 07, 2018, the US-FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb unambiguously expressed that biologic drug manufacturers enter into exclusive arrangements with Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) and insurers, who agree to cover only the old brands in return for rebates or discounts. This “rigged” payment scheme might quite literally scare the biosimilar competition out of the market altogether, he articulated, categorically.

US-FDA Commissioner delivered this speech at the National Health Policy Conference for America’s Health Insurance Plans. During this deliberation, Gottlieb criticized some unwanted and avoidable practices that stifle biosimilar development.

He observed, of the 9 approved biosimilars in the US, only 3 could be launched market. In many instances, patent litigation is the reason for such delay in launch, post FDA approval. Connecting the dots, the Commissioner observed, even after being in the market, biosimilars continue facing more uncertainty due to a ‘rigged payment scheme.’

Started with a great promise:

It is worth noting, till 2010 no regulatory pathway for marketing approval of biosimilars was in place in the world’s largest pharma market – the United States. Hence, despite biosimilar drugs being a treatment option in many countries over the last two decades, the first biosimilar was launched in the US, following this pathway, only in 2015. It was Zarxio ((Filgrastim-sndz) of Novartis – indicated for the treatment of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

Since then, US-FDA has approved nine biosimilars. Ironically biosimilar market size still remains small and much below the general expectations. Most biosimilar manufacturers are navigating through multiple tough hurdles for market launch of this relatively new genre of complex drugs.

Navigating through tough hurdles:

There are tough hurdles to navigate through, while launching biosimilars, especially in the US. Some of which are as follows:

Protracted litigations: The development and launch of most biosimilars get stuck in the multiple patent web-lock, created around original biologic molecules, leading to long drawn expensive litigations.

Pricing: Following small molecule generic drugs, most payers and consumers expect biosimilar pricing too will be no different. However, in practice, most biosimilars are priced just around 15 percent to 20 percent less than original biologics.

Interchangeability: Lack of interchangeability among presently approved biosimilars in the US limits payers’ and consumer choice for a shift from the reference biologic drugs to suitable biosimilars. This virtually restricts the use of biosimilars mostly to such drug-naïve patients.

Confidence: For various reasons, the confidence and familiarity of both physicians and the consumers on biosimilars remain suboptimal. Whether relatively cheaper biosimilars can be used in the same indications as the reference biologic to the new patients – as an alternative choice, is still not clear to many of them. This situation calls for increasing awareness programs involving all stakeholders.

Manufacturing: The manufacturing process of large molecule biosimilars is quite costly as compared to small molecule generic drugs. Hence, these are unlikely to follow a similar pricing pattern, attracting as high a discount as around 80 percent, compared to original branded drugs.

Some of these barriers I have discussed in my article, titled ‘Improving Patient Access To Biosimilar Drugs: Two Key Barriers’, published in this blog on July 31, 2017.

Conclusion:

Be that as it may, drug manufacturers continue to see tremendous opportunity in biosimilars. The interest is heating up, as about six of the top 10 biologic drugs are expected to go off-patent in the US by 2019.

Despite all this, it is generally believed, the prevailing situation will change even in the US. The regulator is expected to facilitate smoother market entry of biosimilars, facing much less obstacles on the way. As many strongly believe, these are possibly an outcome of intense industry lobbying, with the high-level policy makers.  Many of these hurdles can be removed by the regulators, themselves, including drug interchangeability.

The US-FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb has already said in a meeting on March 07, 2018, the FDA will start educating doctors and patients to minimize clinical and other concerns related to biosimilars. Therefore, going forward, greater competition in the biosimilar space is expected to increase the long-awaited price differential, as compared to reference biologic.

With greater support from the regulators, biosimilars still show a unique promise of greater acceptance and access to patients – occasionally ‘Rigged’ maneuvers by the vested interests notwithstanding.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

For Improving Drug Quality in India – A Bizarre Intent

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On January 16, 2017, quoting a Government source, a media report revealed, “India’s drug regulator is looking to inspect US pharmaceutical facilities, making critical medicines so that only high-quality products are imported from them.”

This intent follows a similar decision of the apex regulatory body – the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), against some Chinese manufacturers on drug quality concern. The latest proposal to this effect was sent to the health ministry the previous week – the above report adds.

In this article, I shall explore the fundamental basis of this specific initiative. If it has any, I shall try to fathom whether it’s yet another case of misplaced priority of the decision makers, if not a bizarre one.

The current perspective:

About a couple of years ago, an article published in the global financial daily – the Financial Times, on September 9, 2015 titled, ‘Indian drugs: not what the doctor ordered’, articulated that the Indian pharma industry ‘now face a serious credibility crisis, as they battle to allay western regulators’ concerns about their manufacturing practices — especially the reliability of data from trials of their medicines.’

The report also pointed out: ‘Overseas regulators have been scrutinizing and banning products from some of India’s biggest and most reputable groups — including Sun Pharmaceuticals, IPCA, and Wockhardt – many of which have ongoing relationships with large multinational drug companies.’

Has anything changed now?

Nothing perceptibly seems to have changed in this area since then, to set our ‘own house in order’. Not even after witnessing a barrage of drug quality related ‘import bans’ by the US-FDA that involves Indian manufacturers of all sizes and scale. Instead, CDSCO turns its focus on setting-right ‘others’ manufacturing houses with its reportedly meagre manpower resources. Curiously, these initiatives include even those countries, which are globally acclaimed for having stringent regulatory frameworks well in place, such as the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

Where a justifiable reason exists:

On Chinese API import by different countries, the article titled “Imports To Fuel India’s Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients’ Requirements,” published by Bloomberg | Quint on November 15, 2017 brings out a nice comparison. It says: ‘Among the top emerging and developing economies, India is a major importer of bulk drugs from China at 54 percent, followed by Indonesia at 24 percent, Brazil at 12 percent and South Africa at 8 percent.’ It also writes, in comparison, most of the developed markets of the world import in the range of just 2-3 percent from China.’

Going by this fact, Indian drug regulator’s inspection of some of the Chinese API plants is, by all means, understandable – mainly for two reasons. One, India is largely dependent on Chinese bulk drugs for formulations manufacturing and consumption in the country, besides exports. And the second, some incidents of compromised Chinese drug ingredients have already been reported. For example, citing quality issues, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has recently, reportedly banned import of such questionable drug constituents from six major Chinese pharma companies. This is not a solitary instance. Similar incidents involving Chinese drugs were  reported in the past, as well.

An irony:

When international media agencies flash headlines, such as “U.S. and EU regulators urge Indian drug companies to step up standards,” Indian drug regulators decide to inspect overseas manufacturing plants, as well. Such a decision becomes intriguing, especially when it includes those countries, where from imports are meager, besides their stringent drug quality standards being globally acclaimed.

This is an irony, as the recent local media headlines like, “India among countries where 10% of drugs are substandard: WHO” or “… 27 medicines sold by top firms ‘fail’ quality tests in seven states”, unfold the veracity of drug regulatory laxity within the country.

The basis of the recent proposal becomes more incomprehensible, when the DCGI himself reportedly admits, even today that: “Substandard medicines are a major issue in India and we are looking out for ways to tackle the problem. As quality regulator, we are developing proper mechanisms to stop manufacturing and sale of counterfeit drugs so that they don’t reach the patients.”

The reasons cited for overseas plant inspection:

According to media reports, the reasons cited in the CDSCO proposal for Indian Drug Inspectors’ (DI) inspecting other overseas manufacturers, including those in the US and Europe, are broadly as follows:

  • Most of over 28 manufacturing sites registered in India from the US, manufacture critical formulations or critical new therapies, which are not available in other countries, as they fall into high-risk categories.
  • Inspections will not only result in compliance to the Drugs and Cosmetics Act and Rules, but also give exposure to Indian drugs inspectors to new technology adopted in the manufacturing and state-of-the-art facilities.
  • The sites will be inspected if they have made substandard drugs, received quality complaints, or faced action by other regulatory authorities.
  • Companies shortlisted for the proposed inspections include those making biologic and anti-cancer medicines.

Let me hasten to add, there is nothing wrong with this intent as such, but the moot point is: what’s the core issue that we are talking about? While addressing this point, let’s first have a quick look at India’s import of pharmaceutical product around the last two decades.

India’s import of pharmaceutical products – 1996 – 2018:

According to ‘Trading Economics’ (last updated in January of 2018), India’s import of pharmaceutical products decreased to USD 254.57 Million in 2016 from USD 795.34 Million in 2015. Average drug imports are shown as USD 645.06 USD Million from 1996 until 2016, reaching an all-time high of USD 1747.65 Million in 2012, and a record low of USD 64.32 Million in 1996.

Nonetheless, the micro- picture of India’s bulk drugs or API import isn’t quite the same. On December 19, 2017 in a written reply to the Lok Sabha, the Minister of State, Chemicals and Fertilizers gave details of India’s bulk drug imports from top five countries, as follows:

Country Import value Rs Crore Import value $ Million (Approx.)
China 12,254.97 1915 (66%)
United States 820.18 128 (4.5%)
Italy 701.85 110 (3.8%)
Germany 485.11 76 (2.6%)
Singapore 422.01 66 (2.3%)
Total 18,372.54 2871

It’s worth noting, although the overall value of API import has declined, including from China, its volume share still remains too high in India. More importantly, Indian drug import from the United States and the European countries, are not only very small, there doesn’t seem to be enough instances of substandard drugs imported from these countries to India, either.

The core issue:

Taking a serious note of the reported incidences of widespread substandard drugs by various reports, including the WHO, the core issue becomes rather obvious. What else could possibly be the core issue other than taking effective remedial regulatory measures to contain the menace of substandard drugs circulating within the country?

An article titled, “Correcting India’s Chronic Shortage of Drug Inspectors to Ensure the Production and Distribution of Safe, High-Quality of Medicines,” published by the International Journal of Health Policy and Management (IJHPM) on April 27, 2017, made an important observation in this regard.

It reiterated: Good drug regulation requires an effective system for monitoring and inspection of manufacturing and sales units. In India, despite widespread agreement on this principle, ongoing shortages of drug inspectors have been identified as a major hindrance to this effort by the national committees, since 1975. Rapid growth of India’s pharmaceutical industry and its large export market makes the problem more acute.

Thus, the major remedial measure that CDSCO needs to take on priority to effectively address this core issue, is the chronic shortage of competent drug inspectors in the country.

An assessment of the current situation:

On the ground, the above situation continues to prevail almost in every state of the country, with a varying degree, though. However, at this point, I shall quote just three such instances – only to illustrate the gravity of the situation.

Example 1 – Delhi:

The article titled, “Delhi’s pharmacy woes: Only 21 inspectors for city’s 25,000 chemists,” published by ‘India Today’ on November 25, 2017, well-captured the latest scenario in this regard, of India’s national capital – New Delhi.

It wrote, there’s no guarantee that the medicine you are buying from a pharmacy is safe. The drug regulatory body does not have enough manpower to conduct regular inspections of the city’s mushrooming chemist shops and wholesale units.

Against the sanctioned posts of 31 drug inspectors, the department has only 21 DI for keeping an eye on Delhi’s 25,000 medical stores, and blood banks. Quoting Government officials the report reiterated, while the number of DI has declined – or at best remained constant – over the past 40 years, the number of pharmacies has increased from 5,000 to 25,000.

Whereas, going by the Centre’s recommendation, Dr. Mashelkar Committee report and the Task Force Committee’s observation, there should be one drug inspector for every 50 manufacturing units. Considering the magnitude of the problem, the Drugs Technical Advisory Board (DTAB), in a recent meeting, reportedly suggested, there should be one official for every 200 sales outlets, and one official for every 50 manufacturing units.

Example 2 – Kerala:

Another report of July 08, 2017, with a similar headline – “Remedial action needed in medicine market”, focused on one more important state – Kerala. It wrote that the Kerala has just 47 drug inspectors to monitor the entire State drug market that has over 20,000 drug stores, excluding those located in the hospitals. “In Kerala – the consumer of about 15 to 20 percent of drugs manufactured in the country, there are no quality checks taking place owing to the manpower shortage” – the article cautioned.

Example 3 – Maharashtra:

Yet another national media report of March 16, 2017 carried a headline ‘FDA faces staff shortage again.’ It discussed the same issue for a major State where the financial capital of India is located – Maharashtra. Giving details, the article pointed out that out of 160 posts of drug inspectors across Maharashtra, only 90 have been filled so far and of the 250 food safety officer posts, just 180 have been filled. More than 50,000 pharmacies, 15,000 wholesalers and over 8,000 manufacturing units, are supposed to be properly governed as per the regulatory rules and godliness, to ensure high quality drug safety standards, by this meager DI staff strength of the State.

Conclusion:

Against the above backdrop, it appears absolutely minimum to expect that CDSCO would make the public know, how does it plan to make the drugs manufactured for domestic consumption of high quality standards, as a safeguard to patients’ health and safety.

This calls for strict quality audits by the DIs of the individual states, at pre-determined periodicity, just as what US-FDA does to ensure exactly the same, for patients in their own country. With dwindling resources of DI, CDSCO seems to be continually failing in achieving this critical goal. There doesn’t seem to be any specific and transparent accountability criteria in place, for the CDSCO to comply with.

In this situation, the plan to audit the overseas manufacturing plants located in the US and EU for drug quality assessment, carving out a slice from the existing DI manpower strength, appears rather foolhardy. Moreover, the safety-risk for those imported medicines is apparently low, not just due to meager quantity of drug import, but also for stringent regulatory environment prevailing in those countries.

In view of all this, the media report on CDSCO’s plan to inspect US and EU pharma facilities, making ‘critical’ drugs to ensure high product-quality, is interesting. If it holds any water, the initiative may be construed by many not merely a case of misplaced priority, but a bizarre one, to say the least.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Mental Health Problem: A Growing Concern In The Healthcare Space Of India

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A thud!

Something fell from high above!

In no time, a bright young life of just a 32-year-old highly accomplished professional – a widely admired soul, vanished in the thin year, for good, mostly unnoticed in the quiet neighborhood, initially.

The news was more than a shock to my family. It engulfed me by the fire of impotent rage against this cruel play of destiny, where nothing can be undone, just nothing!

What prompted this so bright, successful, hugely promising and an ever-helpful-to-all guy doing what he did? No one could ferret out the answer, just yet, and possibly would never be.

Medical literatures have now established a close relationship between depression and its possible lethal outcome – suicide. Using literature data, one can estimate that 60 to 70 percent of the subjects attempting suicide were suffering from depression of various kinds. Was this young man too silently suffering from this undiagnosed and untreated mental illness?

In this article, I shall dwell on this important aspect of overall health care in India.

Depression ranks 4th in the 10 leading causes of the global burden of disease:

The World Health Organization (W.H.O) underlines: “Major depression is now the leading cause of disability globally and ranks fourth in the ten leading causes of the global burden of disease. If projections are correct, within the next 20 years, depression will have the dubious distinction of becoming the second cause of the global disease burden. Globally, 70 million people suffer from alcohol dependence. About 50 million have epilepsy; another 24 million have schizophrenia. A million people commit suicide every year. Between ten and 20 million people attempt it.”

A recent study:

Currently in India, millions of people with mental illnesses continue to remain untreated. This is vindicated by a chain of recent research studies titled, “China-India Mental Health Alliance Series”, published in ‘The Lancet’ on May 18, 2016.

The studies highlighted that: “China and India, which together contain 37 percent of the world’s population, are both undergoing rapid social changes. Because mental disorders account for a high proportion of morbidity, detailed knowledge of the mental health status of the populations in these two countries, and the evidence-base regarding the treatment of those disorders, are of paramount concern.”

“In China, mental, neurological and substance use disorders accounted for 7 percent of all (years of healthy life of the whole population) in 1990, rising to 11 percent by 2013. Similarly, in India, the proportion of all burden explained by mental, neurological, and substance use disorders rose from 3 percent in 1990 to 6 percent in 2013,” the researchers highlighted.

Greater concern in India:

In 2013, 36 million years of healthy life were lost to mental illness in China, and 31 million in India. The new research estimates that by 2025, though 36.9m years of healthy life will be lost to mental illness in China (10 percent increase), it will be 38.1m in India (23 percent increase). Anxiety and depression are the most common mental health problems among working age adults between 20 and 69 years.

Similarly, dementia is emerging as a growing mental health issue for both countries. However, from 2015 to 2025, it is estimated that the number of healthy years lost due to dementia will increase by 82 percent in India against 56 percent in China.

Interestingly, in August 2016, replying to a debate on the ‘Mental Health Care Bill’ in the Parliament, the Union Health Minister Mr. J. P. Nadda said, around 6-7 per cent of Indian population suffered from mental illnesses, while 1-2 per cent suffer from acute mental disease.

This means, over 70 million people are affected by mental illness in India, which has a close association with the rate of suicides, cardiovascular disorders, and loss of a significant number of productive days. It is estimated that around 50 percent of people with severe mental disease and around 90 percent of those with less severe symptoms, remain untreated in the country.

Depression, reportedly, the most prevalent form of mental illness that affects almost 3 to 5 percent of urban population living in cities, such as, Mumbai or Delhi. Around 30 percent of them are severely neurotic.

Alzheimer’s disease was reported to be the most common of severe disorders (54 percent) followed by vascular dementia (39 percent).

Another Government statistics indicate that 20 percent of Indians reportedly need counselling at some point of their lives. One per cent of the population suffers from serious mental health disorders, while 5-10 percent of Indians suffer from moderate disorders.

Another recent study:

Another recent report published in ‘The Lancet Psychiatry’ on 12 August 2016, captured the following details for India, in this area:

  • Very few population-representative data were found for mental disorders, with an average coverage of just 1 percent of the country’s population.
  • Major depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, and alcohol dependence were the most common mental, neurological, and substance abuse disorders, for men.
  • For women, anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, and dysthymia were most common.
  • Human and financial resources for mental health are grossly inadequate with less than 1 percent of the national health care budget allocated to mental health in India.
  • Improvement of coverage will need to address both supply-side barriers and demand-side barriers related to stigma and varying explanatory models of mental disorders.

An associate professor of psychiatry at New Delhi’s All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), reportedly said, there is just one psychiatrist for every 400,000 Indians. Apparently, he also said that there are only about 4,000 psychiatrists, 1,000 psychologists and 3,000 social workers in the entire country of over 1.2 billion people. Only 1,022 college seats for mental health professionals are set aside in India.

Or, in other words, a huge dearth of trained mental health professionals, coupled with low public investments, and fueled by high associated stigma, continue to compel many Indian populations lose many years of their lives to the illness.

Role of traditional medicines:

The study also suggests that traditional medicine practitioners, who are so common in India, “may be trained to recognize and refer patients who are at risk to themselves and others, or to advise patients against stopping their medication. Nevertheless, the authors do call for more research in this area to understand the effectiveness and potential risks of traditional medicines in the treatment and management of mental health.

Associated stigma:

It’s worth repeating, unlike many developed countries of the world, there is still a stigma associated with mental health problems in India. There are several instances of its adverse impact, not just on the social level, but also on the employment opportunities. These issues compound the treatment problem, making their public interaction too very weird at times, further increasing social polarization and inequalities.

Not a personal failure:

As the World Health Organization (W.H.O) articulates: “Mental illness is not a personal failure. It doesn’t happen only to other people. We all remember a time not too long ago when we couldn’t openly speak about cancer. That was a family secret. Today, many of us still do not want to talk about AIDS. These barriers are gradually being broken down.”

The Mental Health Care Bill:

The long-awaited ‘Mental Health Care Bill’, which after an extensive consultation process, is now awaiting the lawmakers’ formal approval for its enactment as law. The Bill, was passed by the Rajya Sabha on August 8, 2016, and is expected to be discussed in the Lok Sabha, probably in this budget session. It was first introduced on August 19, 2013, the Rajya Sabha Standing Committee report was submitted on November 20, 2013.

The bill reportedly redefines mental illness to better understand various conditions that are persistent among the population. It states that mental illness is a ‘substantial disorder of thinking, mood, perception, orientation or memory that grossly impairs judgement, behavior, capacity to recognize reality or ability to meet the ordinary demands of life’. Mental conditions related to alcohol or drug abuse are also included in the definition.

The Bill basically aims at protecting the rights of persons with mental illness and promote their access to mental health care.

One of the major highlights of the bill is decriminalization of attempt to suicide, as it states that the person attempting suicide will be presumed to be ‘under severe stress’ unless otherwise proven, and is not punishable. This move is commendable, ‘as it takes away the burden of implicating a mentally ill person in a crime that he or she had no sane control over.’ The W.H.O report on suicides (2000-2012) puts India right on top of the list in Southeast Asia. It says, the average suicide rate in India is 10.9 for every 100,00 people.

Conclusion:

Mental health has now been included in the United Nation’s ‘Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)’ at its General Assembly in September 2015. It is very likely that SDGs addressing mental health issues will become a part of country development plans and of bilateral and multilateral development assistance. This could well mean that millions of people will finally receive much needed help in this area.

Zeroing-in to India, mental health problems have since been a low priority area in the public health narrative of the country. The health information system of the country does not prioritize mental health, either.

To address this growing concern, besides forthcoming enactment of ‘Mental Health Care Bill’, the much-awaited healthcare reform of the nation, should include a transparent policy framework for mental health. A substantial number of community health workers, including traditional medicine practitioners need to be trained to deliver basic mental health hygiene and care. More serious cases, in that process, should be referred to the qualified professionals.

Mental health problems are growing at a rapid pace in India, being a cause of great concern in the healthcare space in India. It deserves to be treated like any other serious physical illness or disease, in a systematic way, backed by adequate budgetary support for affordable treatment and counselling measures, wherever required.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

What Happens To Pharma’s Incredible Ride On The ‘Gravy Train’?

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India continues to be one of the fastest growing pharmaceutical market of the world with its over 40 percent of the total pharmaceutical produce is exported around the world. Over half of the total exports constitute of formulations, and the balance comprises of bulk drugs. India has been consistently maintaining its supremacy in the formulation exports since my salad days.

According to Export Statistics (2014-15) published by the Pharmaceutical Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil), United States (US) is the largest market for the India’s pharmaceutical exports with a share of 27 percent of the total, followed by the United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Russia, Nigeria, Brazil and Germany.

A red flag raised: 

Up until recently, it has almost been like walking over a bed of roses in this front for Indian pharma exporters. However, it does not seem to be so now, and at least in the foreseeable future, for a number of reasons.

The Press Release of ‘CRISIL Research’ dated May 17, 2016 has also raised a red flag in this area. The report foresees growth in pharma formulations (in US dollar terms) declining sharply to 10-12 percent annually over the next 5 years, as compared with a growth of ~19% seen in the last decade.

This adverse impact will be felt mostly in the US – the largest export destination of India, followed by the UK.

I reckon, there are three basic reasons for this changing scenario, namely, pricing, quality and lesser number of branded small-molecule blockbuster drugs going off patent.

The ride on the ‘gravy train’:

Pharma companies across the world consider that doing business in the US market would provide them a lot of money without facing any head wind, fundamentally driven by the drug pricing freedom in the country, as compared to any other market of the world.

This unfettered freedom of charging a hefty price premium in the largest pharma market of the world, on an ongoing basis, has been a critical factor of attraction for many pharma players to do business in the US, coming from various corners of the globe, including India, just as honey attracts the bees, as it were.

Thus far, it has been an incredible ride on the ‘gravy train’, as it were, for most of them.

However, ongoing activities of a large number of drug companies, dominated by blatant self-serving interests, have now given rise to a strong general demand for the Government to initiate robust remedial measures, soon. The telltale signs of which indicate that this no holds barred pricing freedom may not be available to pharma, even in the US, any longer.

In this article, I shall focus mainly on this point, drawing both global and local examples, as this development has a strong potential to add more to the existing miseries of many Indian drug exporters, of course in tandem with many other large MNCs.

Some recent developments: 

The April 21, 2016 issue of ‘The Financial Times’ quoted Joe Jimenez, the Global Chief Executive (CEO) of Novartis, where he said that pharma companies can no longer count on the “hockey-stick” trajectories for new products in the US. This is primarily due to the aggressive control of the drug expenses by the insurers and other healthcare payers, besides lawmakers and the public at large, of this most lucrative pharma market of the world.

As Jimenez said in the report, yesterday’s business model that pharma companies have followed since long, has now changed, slowing the pace of growth of innovative patented products in the US.

This trend is now heading north, primarily driven by the consolidation among the US insurers and healthcare providers. Consequently, the payers are making effective use of their greater bargaining power over the drug companies, especially to avail new incentives for cost savings, as provided in President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, the article highlights.

To give a feel of it, I am quoting the example of a Novartis drug from the same ‘Financial Times’ article. It states, “Entresto, a treatment for heart failure, launched last year on the back of stellar clinical trial results, has so far sold more quickly in Europe than the US, marking a reversal of usual patterns in the pharma industry.”

A key differentiator in global ranking:

In this emerging scenario, all global companies will be adversely impacted for increasing pricing pressure in the US market.

This factor remaining the same for all the pharma players in the world, one of the key differentiating factors that would now play even more important role, is the richness of the advanced stage R&D pipeline of each innovator company.

For example, according to ‘Evaluate Pharma World Preview 2016, Outlook to 2022’ report, the overall R&D pipeline value of Roche is US$ 43.2 billion, far ahead of the same of Novartis’ US$ 24.1 billion and AstraZeneca’s at US$ 23.2 billion, followed by Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Pfizer, Sanofi, Celgene, Biogen and J&J and in that order. As a result, Roche is expected to overtake Novartis and Pfizer in the ranking by 2022, just when the global pharma industry would possibly cross as US$ 1Trillion mark.

Currently Novartis, though quite a small player in the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) holding the rank of 23 (AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS retail audit report, MAT August 2016), is number three in the global ranking, just ahead of Roche.

Indian generic players to feel the heat:

According to the Reuters report of September 11, 2016, US Department of Justice has sent summons this month to the US arm of Sun Pharma – Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Inc. and its two senior executives seeking information on generic drug prices. In 2010, Sun Pharma acquired a controlling stake in Taro Pharmaceutical Industries.

On September 14, 2016, quoting a September 8, 2016 research done by the brokerage firm IIFL, ‘The Economic Times’ reported that some large Indian generic drug manufacturers, such as, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, Lupin, Aurobindo and Glenmark have also hiked the prices of some of their drugs between 150 percent and 800 percent in the US. This invites even more apprehensions in the prevailing scenario.

As I wrote in this Blog on September 12, 2016, the subject of price increases even for generic drugs has also reverberated in the ongoing Presidential campaign in the US.

The Democratic Party’s presidential nominee – Hillary Clinton has already promised, if elected in November 2016, she would constitute an ‘Oversight Panel’ to protect the consumers of her country from hefty price increases for long-available life-saving drugs.

Import bans:

In the midst of all this, import bans of a large number of formulations and bulk drugs by the US-FDA from several manufacturing facilities of Indian drug manufacturers of various scales and sizes, have further compounded the future risk potential of Indian pharma business growth in the US.

As investors are raising concerns, the following comment of the Co-Chairman and Chief Executive of Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, reported by ‘Financial Express’ on August 24, 2015, well captures the pharma business risks in this area:

“The U.S. market is so big that there is no equivalent alternative. We just have to get stronger in the U.S., resolve our issues, build a pipeline and be more innovative to drive growth.”

However, this still remains a good intent. It is worth noting, for most Indian pharma exporters, the US is the single largest export market, with a stake, as high as nearly half of most of these companies’ annual revenue, and probably much more in profit, both of which are now showing a declining trend.

Price control coming in the UK:

On September 15, 2016, the Department of Health of the United Kingdom (UK) reportedly introduced a new Bill in Parliament to use its statutory power to limit the price of generic medicines where competition in the market fails, and pharma companies charge the NHS unreasonably high prices.

The Bill would also allow the government to apply penalties for non-compliance and to recover any payments owed through the courts following a right of appeal to a tribunal. The penalties can be a single penalty not exceeding £100,000 or a daily penalty not exceeding £10,000.

UK drug regulatory authorities had also announced import bans of APIs and formulations from some manufacturing facilities of a couple of leading Indian drug manufacturers, but on a lesser scale as compared to the USFDA.

Action in EU:

As reported by Bloomberg on July 22, 2016, The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has called for a halt to sales of hundreds of medicines that were tested in India, after an inspection of a research site found “substitution and manipulation” of the study samples. The affected companies include both large Indian and multi-national players.

According to a PTI report of July 27, 2015, after this incident Pharmexcil estimated that exports worth US$ 1-1.2 billion are likely to be affected, if cancellation of 700 generic drugs by the EU stands.

Conclusion:

All these developments, particularly on pricing and mostly in the US, could have a retarding effect on the business growth trend of a large number of global and local pharma companies.

Focusing nearer home, the evolving scenario in the world’s top pharma market, viewed together with what’s happening in Europe, both on pricing and the data integrity fronts, send a strong cautionary signal to the Indian drug exporters, in general.

Inadequate remedial measures could unleash this pressure to reach a dangerous threshold, impacting sustainable performance of the concerned companies. On the other hand, adequate remedial action, both strategic and operational in nature, could lead to significant cost escalation, with no space available for its neutralization through price increases, gradually squeezing the margin.

As I see it, ease of doing pharma business in these top export markets will no longer be quite the same as in the past. Many believe, pharma industry has invited these measures sans perceptible self-control, over a long period of time.

Is it mostly a self-inflicted injury of the industry players? The drug companies, in general, don’t believe so. Will this change be irreversible?  Only the future could unravel this. However, regarding the possibility of future US Government legislation on drug pricing, it’s now a wait and watch game for the stakeholders. On a shorter time-frame, the ghost in this area, would keep haunting globally, primarily for business in the US market, at least, till the end of this year.

However, for the Indian pharma exporters, pricing appears to be just one among several other critical issues, especially, in the two most lucrative markets of the world. The overall situation in this area, by and large, remains unchanged till today, besides expression of a plethora of good intents.

Thus, pharma analysts’ quest to ferret out an answer to the Gordian knot on the continuity of Indian pharma exporters’ incredible long ride on the ‘gravy train’, has also not been plain sailing, so far. Further mired by the local manufacturers’ prolonging errors of judgement, the status quo ante is expected to still remain elusive, at least, for now.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion. 

Does Healthcare Feature In Raisina Hill’s To-Do List?

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At the Capitol Hill, while addressing the joint session of the United States Congress, on June 08, 2016, our Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi well articulated the following, in his inimitable style:

“My to-do list is long and ambitious. It includes a vibrant rural economy with robust farm sector; a roof over each head and electricity to all households; to skill millions of our youth; build 100 smart cities; have a broadband for a billion, and connect our villages to the digital world; and create a 21st century rail, road and port infrastructure.”

This ambitious list is indeed praiseworthy. However, as the Prime Minister did not mention anything about health care infrastructure, while referring to rapid infrastructure development in India, it is not abundantly clear, just yet, whether this critical area finds a place in his ‘to-do’ list, as well, for ‘We The People of India’.

This apprehension is primarily because, no large scale, visible and concrete reform measures are taking place in this area, even during the last two years. It of course includes, any significant escalation in the public expenditure for health.

Ongoing economic cost of significant loss in productive years:

“The disease burden of non-communicable diseases has increased to 60 per cent. India is estimated to lose US$ 4.8 Trillion between 2012 and 2030 due to non-communicable disorders. It is therefore critical for India to transform its healthcare sector,” – says a 2015 KPMG report titled, ‘Healthcare: The neglected GDP driver.’ 

This significant and ongoing loss in productive years continues even today in India, handicapped by suboptimal health care infrastructure, and its delivery mechanisms. Such a situation can’t possibly be taken for granted for too long. Today’s aspiring general public wants the new political leadership at the helm of affairs in the country to address it, sooner. A larger dosage of hope, and assurances may not cut much ice, any longer.

Transparent, comprehensive, and game changing health reforms, supported by the requisite financial and other resources, should now be translated into reality. A sharp increase in public investments, in the budgetary provision, for healthy lives of a vast majority of Indian population, would send an appropriate signal to all.

As the above KPMG report also suggests: “It is high time that we realize the significance of healthcare as an economic development opportunity for national as well as state level.”

Pump-priming public health investments:

With a meager public expenditure of just around 1.2 percent of the GDP on health even during the last two years, instead of rubbing shoulders with the global big brothers in the health care area too, India would continue to rank at the very bottom.

Consequently, the gaping hole within the healthcare space of the country would stand out, even more visibly, as a sore thumb, escaping the notice, and the agony of possibly none.

With around 68 percent of the country’s population living in the rural areas, having frugal or even no immediate emergency healthcare facilities, India seems to be heading towards a major socioeconomic imbalance, with its possible consequences, despite the country’s natural demographic dividend.

According to published reports, there is still a shortage of 32 and 23 percent of the Community Health Centers (CHC) and the Primary Health Centers (PHC), respectively, in India. To meet the standard of the World Health Organization (WHO), India would need minimum another 500,000 hospital beds, requiring an investment of US$ 50 Billion.

Moreover, to date, mostly the private healthcare institutions, and medical professionals are engaged in the delivery of the secondary and tertiary care, concentrated mostly in metro cities and larger towns. This makes rural healthcare further challenging. Pump-priming public investments, together with transparent incentive provisions for both global and local healthcare investors, would help augmenting the process.

Help propel GDP growth:

As the above KPMG report says, the healthcare sector has the ability to propel GDP growth via multiple spokes, directly and indirectly. It offers a chance to create millions of job opportunities that can not only support the Indian GDP growth, but also support other sectors of the economy by improving both demand and supply of a productive healthy workforce.

Three key areas of healthcare:

Healthcare, irrespective of whether it is primary, secondary or tertiary, has three major components, as follows: 

  • Prevention
  • Diagnosis
  • Treatment 

Leveraging digital technology:

As it appears, leveraging digital technology effectively, would help to bridge the health care gap and inequality considerably, especially in the first two of the above three areas.

A June 06, 2016 paper titled, ‘Promoting Rural Health Care: Role of telemedicine,’ published by the multi-industry trade organization -The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) said: “With limited resources and a large rural population telemedicine has the potential to revolutionize the delivery of healthcare in India.”

As the report highlighted, it would help faster diagnosis of ailments, partly address the issues of inadequacy of health care providers in rural areas, and also the huge amount of time that is now being spent in physically reaching the urban health facilities. Maintenance of the status quo, would continue making the rural populace more vulnerable in the health care space, than their urban counterparts.

The study forecasted that India’s telemedicine market, which has been growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20 per cent, holds the potential to cross US$32 million mark in turnover by 2020, from the current level of over US$15 million.

According to another report, currently, with around 70 percent overall use of smartphones, it is quite possible to give a major technology enabled thrust for disease prevention, together with emergency care, to a large section of the society.  

However, to demonstrate the real technology leveraged progress in this area, the Government would require to actively help fixing the requisite hardware, software, bandwidth and connectivity related critical issues, effectively. These will also facilitate keeping mobile, and other electronic health records.

Disease treatment with medicines:

To make quality drugs available at affordable prices, the Indian Government announced a new scheme (Yojana) named as ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’, effective July 2015, with private participation. This is a renamed scheme of the earlier version, which was launched in 2008. Under the new ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’, about 500 generic medicines will be made available at affordable prices. For that purpose, the government is expected to open 3000 ‘Jan Aushadhi’ stores across the country in the next one year i.e. 2016-17.

The question now is what purpose would this much hyped scheme serve?

What purpose would ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’ serve?

Since the generic drugs available from ‘Jan Aushadhi’ retail outlets are predominantly prescription medicines, patients would necessarily require a doctor’s physical prescription to buy those products.

In India, as the doctors prescribe mostly branded generics, including those from a large number of the Government hospitals, the only way to make ‘Jan Aushadhi’ drugs available to patients, is to legally allow the retailers substituting the higher priced branded generic molecules with their lower priced equivalents, sans any brand name.

Moving towards this direction, the Ministry of Health had reportedly submitted a proposal to the Drug Technical Advisory Board (DTAB) to the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), for consideration. Wherein, the Ministry reportedly suggested an amendment of Rule 65 of the Drugs and Cosmetics Rules, 1945 to enable the retail chemists substituting a branded drug formulation with its cheaper equivalent, containing the same generic ingredient, in the same strength and the dosage form, with or without a brand name.

However, in the 71st meeting of the DTAB held on May 13, 2016, its members reportedly turned down that proposal of the ministry. DTAB apparently felt that given the structure of the Indian retail pharmaceutical market, the practical impact of this recommendation may be limited.

For this reason, the ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’, appears to be not so well thought out, and a one-off ‘making feel good’ type of a scheme. It is still unclear how would the needy patients derive any benefit from this announcement.

Conclusion:

On June 20, 2016, while maintaining the old policy of 100 per cent FDI in the pharmaceutical sector, Prime Minister Modi announced his Government’s decision to allow foreign investors to pick up to 74 per cent equity in domestic pharma companies through the automatic route.

This announcement, although is intended to brighten the prospects for higher foreign portfolio and overseas company investment in the Indian drug firms, is unlikely to have any significant impact, if at all, on the prevailing abysmal health care environment of the country.

Hopefully, with the development of 100 ‘smart cities’ in India, with 24×7 broadband, Wi-Fi connectivity, telemedicine would be a reality in improving access to affordable healthcare, at least, for the population residing in and around those areas.

Still the fundamental question remains: What happens to the remaining vast majority of the rural population of India? What about their health care? Poorly thought out, and apparently superficial ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana’ won’t be able to help this population, either. 

With the National Health Policy 2015 draft still to see the light of the day in its final form, the path ahead for healthcare in India is still rather hazy, if not worrying. 

As stated before, in the Prime Minister’s recent speech delivered at the ‘Capitol Hill’ of the United States earlier this month, development of a robust healthcare infrastructure in the country did not find any mention in his ‘to-do’ list.

Leaving aside the ‘Capitol Hill’ for now, considering the grave impact of health care on the economic progress of India, shouldn’t the ‘Raisina Hill’ start pushing the envelope, placing it in one of the top positions of the national ‘to-do’ list, only to protect the health interest of ‘We The People of India’?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Biosimilar Drugs: First Indian Foot Print In An Uncharted Frontier

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A homegrown Indian biologic manufacturer is now about to leave behind its first foot-print, with a ‘made in India’ biosimilar drug, in one of the largest pharma market of the world. This was indeed an uncharted frontier, and a dream to realize for any Indian bio-pharma player.                                                      

On March 28, 2016, by a Press Release, Bengaluru based Biocon Ltd., one of the premier biopharmaceutical companies in India, announced that the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) of Japan has approved its biosimilar Insulin Glargine in a prefilled disposable pen. The product is a biosimilar version of Sanofi’s blockbuster insulin brand – ‘Lantus’.

The Company claims that Glargine is a high quality, yet an affordable priced product, as it will reportedly cost around 25 percent less than the original biologic brand – Lantus. This ‘made in India’ biosimilar product is expected to be launched in Japan in the Q1 of 2017. Incidentally, Japan is the second largest Glargine market in the world with a value of US$ 144 Million. Biocon will co-market this product with its partner Fujifilm.

Would it be a free run? 

Although it is a very significant and well-deserved achievement of Biocon, but its entry with this biosimilar drug in Japan’s Lantus market, nevertheless, does not seem to be free from tough competition. This is because, in 2015, both Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim also obtained Japanese regulatory approval for their respective biosimilar versions of Lantus. In the same year, both these companies also gained regulatory approval from the US-FDA, and the European Medicine Agency (EMA) for their respective products.

Moreover, Sanofi’s longer acting version of Lantus – Lantus XR, or Toujeo, to treat both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, has already been approved in Japan, which needs to be injected less, expectedly making it more convenient to patients.

Key barriers to a biosimilar drug's success: 

Such barriers, as I shall briefly outline below, help sustaining monopoly of the original biologic even after patent expiry, discourage investments in innovation in search of biosimilars, and adversely impacts access to effective and much less expensive follow-on-biologics to save patients’ precious lives. 

These barriers can be broadly divided in two categories: 

A. Regulatory barriers:

1. Varying non-proprietary names:

A large number of biosimilar drug manufacturers, including insurers and large pharmacy chains believe, just as various global studies have also indicated that varying non-proprietary names for biosimilars, quite different from the original biologic, as required by the drug regulators in the world’s most regulated pharma markets, such as, the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia, restrict competition in the market for the original biologic brands. 

However, the innovator companies for biologic drugs hold quite different views. For example, Roche (Genentech), a developer of original biologic, reportedly explained that “distinguishable non-proprietary names are in the best interest of patient safety, because they facilitate Pharmacovigilance, and mitigate inadvertent product substitution.”

Even, many other global companies that develop both original biologic and also biosimilar products such as, Amgen, Pfizer and others, also reportedly support the use of ‘distinguishable nonproprietary names’.

That said, the Biosimilars Council of the Generic Pharmaceutical Association argues that consistent non-proprietary naming will ensure robust market formation that ultimately supports patient access, affordability, Pharmacovigilance systems currently in place and allow for unambiguous prescribing, 

2. Substitution or interchangeable with original biologics:

Besides different ‘non-proprietary names’, but arising primarily out of this issue, automatic substitution or interchangeability is not permitted for biosimilar drugs by the drug regulators in the major pharma markets of the world, such as, the United States, Europe and Japan.

The key argument in favor of interchangeability barrier for biosimilar drugs is the fact that the biological drugs, being large protein molecules, can never be exactly replicated. Hence, automatic substitution of original biologic with biosimilar drugs does not arise. This is mainly due to the safety concern that interchangeability between the biosimilars and the original biologic may increase immunogenicity, giving rise to adverse drug reactions. Hence, it would be risky to allow interchangeability of biosimilar drugs, without generating relevant clinical trial data.

On the other hand, the Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA) and the Biosimilars Council, vehemently argue that a biosimilar drug has a lot many other unique identifying characteristics “including a brand name, company name, a lot number and a National Drug Code (NDC) number that would readily distinguish it from other products that share the same nonproprietary name.”

Further, the interchangeable status for biosimilar drugs would also help its manufacturers to tide over the initial apprehensions on safety and quality of biosimilar drugs, as compared to the original ones.

3. 12-year Data Exclusivity period for biologics in the United states:

Currently, the new law for biologic products in the United States provides 12 years of data exclusivity for a new biologic. This is five years more than what is granted to small molecule drugs. 

Many experts believe that this system would further delay the entry of cost-effective biosimilar drugs, restrict the biosimilar drug manufacturers from relying on the test data submitted to drug regulator by the manufacturers of the original biologic drugs while seeking marketing approval.

A rapidly evolving scenario in the United States:

The regulatory space for approval of biosimilar drugs is still evolving in the Unites States. This is vindicated by the fact that in March 2016, giving a somewhat positive signal to the biosimilar drug manufacturers, the US-FDA released another set of a 15-page draft guidelines on how biosimilar products should be labeled for the US market. Interestingly, it has come just around a year of the first biosimilar drug approval in the United States – Zarxio (filgrastim-sndz) of Novartis.

The US-FDA announcement says that all ‘comments and suggestions regarding this draft document should be submitted within 60 days of publication in the Federal Register of the notice announcing the availability of the draft guidance.’ Besides labeling issues, this draft guidance document, though indicates that the ‘interchangeability’ criteria will be addressed in the future, does not still throw enough light on how exactly to determine ‘interchangeability’ for biosimilar drugs.

That said, these key regulatory barriers are likely to continue, at least in the foreseeable future, for many reasons. The biosimilar drug manufacturers, therefore, would necessarily have to work within the set regulations, as applicable to different markets of the world.

I deliberated a related point in my article of August 25, 2014, titled “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns” 

B. Prescribers’ skepticism:  

Initial skepticism of the medical profession for biosimilar drugs are, reportedly, due to the high voltage advocacy of the original biologic manufacturers on the ‘documented variability between original biologic and biosimilars. Which is why, any substitution of an original biologic with a related biosimilar drug could lead to increase in avoidable adverse reactions.

‘The medical platform and community QuantiaMD’, released a study just around September 2015, when by a Press Release, Novartis announced the launch of the first biosimilar approved by the US-FDA – Zarxio(TM) (filgrastim-sndz). However, in 2006, Novartis after suing the US-FDA, got the approval for its human growth hormone – Omnitrope, which is a biosimilar of the original biologic of Genentech and Pfizer. At that time a clear regulatory guideline for biosimilar drugs in the United States, was not in place.

The QuantiaMD report at that time said, “Only 12% of prescribing specialists are ‘very confident’ that biosimilars are as safe as the original biologic version of the drug. In addition, a mere 17% said they were ‘very likely’ to prescribe a biosimilar, while 70% admitted they were not sure if they would.” 

Since then, this scenario for biosimilar drugs is changing though gradually, but encouragingly. I shall dwell on that below.

The major growth drivers:

The major growth drivers for biosimilars, especially, in the world’s top pharmaceutical markets are expected to be:

  • Growing pressure to curtail healthcare expenditure
  • Growing demand for biosimilar drugs due to their cost-effectiveness
  • Rising incidences of various life-threatening diseases
  • Increasing number of off-patent biologics
  • Positive outcome in the ongoing clinical trials
  • Rising demand for biosimilars in different therapeutic applications, such as, rheumatoid arthritis and blood disorders. 

This in turn would probably usher in an unprecedented opportunity for the manufacturers of high quality biosimilar drugs, including in India.

Unfolding a huge emerging opportunity with biosimilars: 

This unprecedented opportunity is expected to come mainly from the world’s three largest pharma market, namely the United States, Europe and Japan, due to very high prices of original biologic drugs, and simultaneously to contain rapidly escalating healthcare expenditure by the respective Governments. 

Unlike in the past, when the doctors were apprehensive, and a bit skeptic too, on the use of new biosimilars, some new studies of 2016 indicate a rapid change in that trend. After the launch of the first biosimilar drug in the US, coupled with rapidly increasing incidences of various complex, life-threatening diseases, better knowledge of biosimilar drugs and their cost-effectiveness, doctors are now expressing much lesser concern, and exhibiting greater confidence in the use of biosimilars in their clinical practice.

Yet another, March 2016 study indicates, now only 19.5 percent of respondents feel little or no confidence in the use of biosimilar monoclonal antibodies compared to 61percent of respondents to a previous version of the survey undertaken in 2013 by the same market research group. The survey also shows that 44.4 percent of respondents consider that the original biologic and its biosimilar versions are interchangeable, as compared with only 6 percent in the 2013 survey.

As a result of this emerging trend, some global analysts of high credibility estimate that innovative biologic brands will lose around US$110 billion in sales to their biosimilar versions by 2025.

Another March, 2016 report of IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics states that lower-cost biosimilar versions of complex biologic, could save the US and Europe’s five top markets as much as US$112 billion by 2020,

These encouraging developments in the global biosimilar arena are expected to encourage the capable Indian biosimilar drug players to invest in this high-tech format of drug development, and reap a rich harvest as the high priced blockbuster biologic brands go off-patent.

Conclusion:

Putting all these developments together, and considering the rapidly emerging scenario in this space, it now appears that challenges ahead for rapid acceptance of biosimilar drugs though are still many, but not insurmountable, at all.

The situation necessitates application of fresh and innovative marketing strategies to gain doctors’ confidence on biosimilar medicines, in total conformance with the regulatory requirements for the same, as they are, in the most important regulated markets of the world.

It goes without saying that success in the generation of enough prescriptions for biosimilar drugs is the fundamental requirement to benefit the patients, which, in turn, would lead to significant savings in health care cost, as estimated above, creating a win-win situation for all, in every way.

As more innovator companies start joining the biosimilar bandwagon, the physicians’ perception on these new varieties of medicines, hopefully, would also change, sooner.

Biocon’s grand announcement of its entry with a ‘made in India’ biosimilar drug in one of the word’s top three pharma markets, would probably be a great encouragement for all other Indian biosimilar drug manufacturers. It clearly showcases the capabilities of an Indian drug manufacturer to chart in an uncharted and a highly complex frontier of medicine.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

A Great News! But…Would This ‘Golden Goose’ Lay Golden Eggs?

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On December 9, 2014, international media flashed across the world a great news item from the Indian pharma industry:

“The first biosimilar of the world’s top-selling medicine Humira (adalimumab) of AbbVie has been launched in India by Zydus Cadila.”

This exhilarating news has undoubtedly got frozen in time flagging a well-cherished moment of pride for the Indian pharmaceutical industry. Along side, taking note of many contemporary factors in this area, a lurking apprehension too does creep in. It raises an awkward and uncomfortable question – would this ‘Golden Goose” born out of a laudable ‘reverse engineering’ effort be able to lay ‘Golden Eggs’, signaling its global commercial success for the company?

In this article, I shall try to dwell on on this important issue.

In one my earlier blog posts of August 25, 2014 titled, “Scandalizing Biosimilar Drugs With Safety Concerns”, I discussed another related concern in this area.

Born a ‘Golden Goose’:

Just to recapitulate, the original product Humira (Adalimumab) of Abbvie, a fully human anti-TNF alpha monoclonal antibody was first globally approved for marketing in 2002. Since then Humira has emerged as the most preferred therapy to reduce the signs and symptoms of patients suffering from moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, moderate to severe polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, moderate to severe Crohn’s disease and moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. However, Humira is not available in the Indian market, at present.

Zydus Cadila has announced that its biosimilar version of Humira (Adalimumab), has been approved by the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) and will be marketed under the brand name ‘Exemptia’ for the treatment of autoimmune disorders as indicated for Humira.

As claimed by the company, ‘Exemptia’ is a ‘fingerprint match’ with the original drug Humira in terms of purity, safety and potency. Zydus Cadila has also stated that the novel non-infringing process for Adalimumab and a novel non-infringing formulation have been researched, developed and produced by scientists in its own Research Centre.

With this the world took note of the ‘Golden Goose’, born out of brilliant ‘Reverse Engineering’ in India. However, the apprehension of many continued to linger: Would this ‘Golden Goose’ be able to lay ‘Golden Eggs’?

The product and the price:

According to an estimate, over 12 million patients in India suffer from the above chronic conditions of autoimmune disorders, which progressively deteriorate and lead to lifelong pain and in some cases, even disability. To treat these indications, Exemptia is recommended as a 40 mg subcutaneous injection once every alternate week. Patients normally would have to take the treatment for six months.

Media reports indicate that ‘Exemptia’ of Zydus Cadila will be priced in India equivalent to US$ 200 a vial against Humira price in the United States of US$ 1,000. Initial overall reaction for this local price does not seem to be quite favorable for India.

The global market:

A recent report from Thomson Reuters indicates, as blockbuster drugs with sales turnover of around US$100 billion lose patent protection, the global biosimilars market is expected to grow around US$ 25 billion by the end of the decade.

According to a 2013 report of the credit rating agency Fitch, eight of the current 20 top-selling global pharmaceuticals are biologics that will face patent expiry by 2020.

EvaluatePharma reported that the current the anti-rheumatics market makes up the second largest treatment area by sales, with worldwide revenues of US$ 41.1 billion, closely behind the oncology therapy area, which registered sales of US$68 billion in 2012 with a high growth rate.

The report also states, despite biosimilar entry Anti-rheumatics segment is expected to record a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4 percent with a turnover of around S$52.1 billion in 2018.

The local potential:

Over the last several years, China and India have been emerging as the promising destinations for international outsourcing of biopharmaceutical manufacturing. In the recent times, China and India are reportedly showing promises to become the industry’s top potential destinations for offshoring over the next five years, ahead of traditional bio manufacturing hubs in the US and Western Europe.

More than 40 biosimilar products are now available in the Indian market. Over 10 pharma players are competing in this area with around 15 epoetin, 8 G-CSF and 4 insulin “biosimilars”, besides a few others.

Although India has the second largest USFDA approved drug manufacturing plants next to the United States, none of the products manufactured in these facilities can possibly be considered as “true biosimilars”.

Humira expected to remain strong:

EvaluatePharma also forecasts that Humira of AbbVie would continue to remain the best selling drug of the world at least till 2018 with sales of US$12.8 billion, despite its US patent expiry in 2016.

Moreover, to succeed Humira that will go off patent between end 2016 and 2018 (Europe), AbbVie reportedly has seven new drugs in clinical development for Rheumatoid Arthritis. These patented new drugs could also significantly cannibalize the sales of Humira.

Physicians’ attitude towards biosimilars:

According to an October 2014 Report of IMS Institute from Europe’s perspective, within each country’s health system, physicians display a range of attitudes and behaviors that influence their prescribing of biosimilars.

IMS observed three broad segments of prescribers as follows:

  • Conservative prescribers: These doctors tend to be late adopters of new technologies, are more likely to follow published clinical treatment guidelines, and may not be aware of or educated on the availability of potential use of biosimilars.
  • Open-minded prescribers: This archetype includes physicians who tend to be the most responsive to new information about treatment options, particularly where experience and knowledge of biologics may be low and educational program can be effective in impacting usage.
  • Enterprising prescribers: This segment of prescribers is most likely to search out information from all sources, and be open to trying different options for patient care including biosimilars as well as innovative treatments.

In addition to these archetypes, the report states, physicians’ attitudes and prescribing behavior may also be influenced or determined by prescribing guidelines, if any, the use of prescribing incentives, as well as the use of promotional activities by either originator or biosimilar manufacturers.

The US biosimilar challenge:

According to reports, despite two pharma players filing biosimilar applications at the USFDA, there are still many issues to be sorted out in this space by the drug regulator of the country.

Though an interchangeable biosimilar in the United States still appears to be several years away, there are initiatives in some American states to restrict interchangeable biosimilar for substitution against the reference product.

Moreover, USFDA’s draft guidance on clinical pharmacology of May 2014 has invited strong adverse comments from the innovator companies, lobby groups and the industry associations.

However, just in the last week, both the innovator companies and biosimilar manufacturers have reportedly agreed to support state legislation that allows pharmacies to automatically substitute biosimilars for corresponding branded biologics. But pharmacies must give prescribers a heads up afterward “within a reasonable time.”

For biosimilars makers, it’s a big improvement on the alternative, as the biotech developers wanted to require pharmacists to check with doctors before making the switch.

That said, the USFDA is yet to determine exactly how to classify biosimilars and their “reference products” as interchangeable. This guidance for classification would be necessary for the above mentioned pharmacy switches. This guidance is important especially for the statutory language, which dictates that interchangeability is proven for “any given patient”. This could also be construed as requiring studies in all the approved indications for a brand name biologic, i.e. Humira has around five different indications.

Thus, the path ahead still remains challenging for the biosimilar players in the United States, and more so for the Indian Companies, as compared to other global pharma majors with deep pockets.

Several other Humira biosimilars under development too:

As indicated earlier, the US and Europe patents of Humira with worldwide sales of US$ 11.02 billion in 2013 would expire by end 2016 and 2018, respectively. Thus, the product has become among the most sought-after biosimilar target prototypes for many pharma and biotech companies across the world.

The global biotech major Amgen has already indicated that its ABP 501 biosimilar has shown comparable efficacy and safety to Humira (adalimumab) in a late-stage trial in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis after treatment duration of 16 weeks. The product, reportedly, has also matched Humira in stimulating immune response in patients.

Experts believe, Amgen could be in a position to compete directly with Humira when it loses patent protection, if similar results are obtained in the second phase III trial.

Moreover, according to available reports, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sandoz (Novartis) and Coherus are also progressing well with the development of Humira biosimilars.

Zydus Cadila expects that in 2019 it would be ready to launch the biosimilar of Humira (Adalimumab) in the United States.

Marketing challenges for biosimilars:

Today, the global biosimilars market is indeed in a nascent stage, even for the Indian players.

For successful commercialization of biosimilars, I envisage, a well-crafted hybrid marketing-model of small molecule generics on the one hand and large molecule biologics of the originators’ on the other would be appropriate, in the years ahead.

In the early marketing phase, biosimilar marketers are expected to follow the same branding, communication and detailing strategies of the originators, which ultimately would transform into a generic matrix as more players chip in with the price competition intensifying.

Unlike small molecule generics, affordable price of a biosimilar would be just one of the many critical considerations for its commercial success in the biologics market.

Sustained efforts and initiatives to allay safety concerns with biosimilars among both the doctors and also the patients would be a dire necessity. Providing in-depth medical, technical and domain knowledge to the sales team should never be compromised, though these would require additional initial investments. Post marketing surveillance or pharmacovigilance for biosimilars must be ongoing, even in India. Here too, Indian players do not seem to be very strong, as yet.

Thus, unlike small molecule generics, marketing a large molecule biosimilar would require clear, razor sharp and focused strategies across the value chain to unlock its true potential. Crafting impactful value propositions, avoiding complexities, for each stakeholder, would decide the commercial fate of the product.

‘Made in India’ issue for pharma needs to be addressed expeditiously:

High credibility clinical trial data and manufacturing quality standards would also play a decisive role, especially for India made biosimilars.

This is mainly due to widespread reports of frequent USFDA allegations related to falsification and doctoring of manufacturing data in several manufacturing plants of India.

Ethical and quality issues for drugs made in India, such as these, assumed even greater dimension, as the regulators in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg reportedly suspended marketing approval for 25 drugs over the genuineness of clinical trial data from India’s GVK Biosciences. This is yet another blow to ‘Made in India’ image for medicines, which has arrested the global attention, for all the wrong reasons, just the last week. 

Conclusion:

Considering all the above points, let me now try to make a fair personal guess on whether or not the ‘Golden Goose’ would be successful enough to lay ‘Golden Eggs’, as required by the company.

Firstly, in the Indian perspective, the key point that strikes me is the cost of a treatment course with ‘Exemptia’ per patient in the country. On a rough calculation, it comes around Rs. 1,50,000 per course/per patient. This appears rather high according to the income level of an average Indian.

However, Zydus Cadila expects sales between Rs.1 billion (US$16.16 million) and 2 billion for ‘Exemptia’ only from the Indian market.

I reckon, with relatively high per course treatment cost with Exemptia, it may be quite challenging for the company to achieve this goal in the domestic market.

Thus, the global success of this biosimilar brand would mainly depend on its degree of success in the United States and Europe, post patent expiry of Humira.

Going by the possible availability of other Humira biosimilars from manufacturers with robust global marketing muscle, skill sets, experience and other wherewithal, the path of global success for Exemptia of Zydus Cadila, if the company decides to fly solo, appears to be strewn with many odds.

I would now stick my neck out to zero in with specificity in this area, while envisaging the possible future scenario.

Considering the evolving macro scenario together with the commercial success requirements in this space, I reckon, despite presence of several possible competitors of Humira biosimilars, including one from Zydus Cadila, the biotech domain expertise of Amgen, fuelled by its marketing muscle, would in all probability make its ABP 501 biosimilar the toughest competitor to Humira after its patent expiry in the US and Europe…and then…why doesn’t it try to succeed in India too?

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

“Make in India…Sell Anywhere in The World”: An Indian Pharma Perspective

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In his Independent Day speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2014, Indian Prime Minister Modi gave a clarion call to all investors of the world, “Come, make in India”, “Come, manufacture in India”, “Sell in any country of the world, but manufacture here”.

The Prime Minister did not stop there. In his inimitable style, following it through on September 25, 2014 he gave an official status to ‘Make in India’ slogan and launched a global campaign.

“My definition of FDI for the people of India is First Develop India. This is also a responsibility for the people of India,” he further clarified.

An Indian perspective:

If I juxtapose this vision of the Prime Minister in the Indian pharmaceutical industry perspective, one finds that many small, medium and large size local domestic manufacturers are currently manufacturing drugs not just for the domestic market, but are also exporting in large quantities to various countries of the world, including, North America, South America and Europe.

The United States (US) is one of the most critical markets for majority of the Indian drug exporters. This transaction was taking place without any major regulatory hitches since quite some time. Unfortunately, over the last few years, mostly the Federal Drug Administration of the US (USFDA) and the United Kingdom (UK)’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) have started raising serious doubts on the quality of medicines manufactured in India, making a significant impact on the drug exports of the country.

Most of these quality issues are related to ‘Data Integrity’ in the dug manufacturing and its documentation processes.

The impact:

According to industry data, in 2013-14, Indian drug exports registered the slowest growth in nearly the last 15 years. In this fiscal year, pharma exports of the country with a turnover of US$ 14.84 billion grew at a meager 1.2 percent. Pharmexcil attributed its reason to USFDA related regulatory issues and increasing global competition.

US accounts for about 25 percent of India’s pharma exports and its Federal Drug Administration (USFDA) has been expressing, since quite a while, serious concerns on ‘Data Integrity’ at the agency’s  previously approved production facilities of a large number of Indian pharma players.

The issue is causing not just a serious concern to USFDA and some other overseas drug regulatory agencies, but also posing a huge threat to future growth potential of Indian drug exports.

It is worth noting that Indian government had set an objective, in its strategy document, to register a turnover of US$ 25 billion for pharma exports in 2014-15. In all probability, it would fall far short of this target at the end of this fiscal, predominantly for related reasons.

Why is so much of ‘fuss’ on ‘Data Integrity’?

Broadly speaking, ‘Data Integrity’ in pharmaceutical manufacturing ensures that finished products meet pre-established specifications, such as, for purity, potency, stability and sterility. If data integrity is breached in any manner or in absence of credible data, the product becomes of dubious quality in the eyes of drug regulators.

Manufacturing related ‘Data Integrity’ is usually breached, when data from a database is deliberately or otherwise modified or destroyed or even cooked.

Over the last several years, ‘Data Integrity’ related issues in India are attracting enormous attention of both the USFDA and the MHRA, UK. As a result, concerned pharma manufacturing facilities are receiving Import Alerts/Warning Letters from the respective overseas drug regulators, refusing entry of those medicines mostly in the United States and some in the UK.

Recent warning letters:

Just over a year – from May 2013 to July 2014, around a dozen ‘Warning Letters’ have been sent to the Indian drug manufacturers by the USFDA on ‘Data Integrity’ related issue, as follows:

Recent ‘Warning Letter’ issued to: Date of issue
1. Marck Biosciences Ltd. 08. 07. 2014
2. Apotex Pharmachem India Pvt Ltd. 17. 06. 2014
3. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 07. 05. 2014
4. Canton Laboratories Private Limited 27. 02. 2014
5. USV Limited 06. 02. 2014
6. Wockhardt Limited 25. 11. 2013
7. Agila Specialties Private Limited 09. 09. 2013
8. Posh Chemicals Private Limited 02. 08. 2013
9. Aarti Drugs Limited 30. 07. 2013
10. Wockhardt Limited 18. 07. 2013
11. Fresenius Kabi Oncology Ltd 01. 07. 2013
12. RPG Life Sciences Limited 28. 05. 2013

(Source: RAPS, 19 August 2014)

Another report states that USFDA has, so far, banned at least 36 manufacturing plants in India from selling products in the US.

Importance of US for Indian generic players:

Generic drugs currently contribute over 80 percent of prescriptions written in the US. Around 40 percent of prescriptions and Over The Counter (OTC) drugs that are sold there, come from India. Almost all of these are cheaper generic versions of patent expired drugs. Hence, India’s commercial stake in this area is indeed mind-boggling.

The ‘Data Integrity’ issue is not restricted to just US or UK:

A report quoting researchers led by Roger Bate, an American Enterprise Institute scholar and funded by the The Legatum Institute and the Humanities Research Council of Canada, concluded that many Indian pharma companies follow double manufacturing standards, as they are sending poor quality drugs to Africa compared to the same pills sold in other countries. This study was based on tests of 1,470 samples produced by 17 Indian drug manufacturers.

Besides India, the researchers took drug samples from pharmacies in Africa and middle-income countries, including China, Russia and Brazil.

According to this paper, the researchers found that 17.5 percent of samples of the tuberculosis therapy rifampicin sold in Africa tested substandard, which means the drug has less than 80 percent of the active ingredient than what it should otherwise. Against this number, in India, 7.8 percent of the medicine sampled was found substandard.

Moreover, Almost 9 percent of samples of the widely used antibiotic ciprofloxacin sold in Africa tested substandard, as compared to 3.3 percent in India.

Thorny issues around golden opportunities:

Much reported breach in manufacturing ‘Data Integrity’ detected at the manufacturing sites in India, are throwing fresh doubts on the efficacy and safety profile of generic/branded generic medicines, in general, produced in the country and more importantly, whether they are putting the patients’ health at risk.

A new analysis by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research pointed out some thorny issues related to ‘Data Integrity’ of drugs produced by the Indian pharmaceutical companies, which supply around 40 percent of the generic drugs sold in the United States, as stated above.

The researchers examined nearly 1,500 India-made drug samples, collected from 22 cities and found that “up to 10 percent of some medications contained insufficient levels of the key active ingredients or concentrations so low, in fact, that they would not be effective against the diseases they’re designed to treat.”

The report also highlighted that international regulators detected more than 1,600 errors in 15 drug applications submitted by Ranbaxy. The Bureau Officials commented that these pills were “potentially unsafe and illegal to sell.”

Frequent drug recalls by Indian pharma majors:

The above findings came in tandem with a series of drug recalls made recently by the Indian pharma companies in the US.

Some of the reported recent drug recalls in America, arising out of manufacturing related issues at the facilities of two well-known Indian pharma majors, which are going to merge soon, are as follows:

  • Sun Pharmaceuticals recalled nearly 400,000 bottles of the decongestant cetirizine (Zyrtec) and 251,882 of the antidepressant venlafaxine (Effexor) this May, because the pills failed to dissolve properly. The drugs were distributed by the drug maker’s US subsidiary Caraco Pharmaceutical Laboratories, but were manufactured in India.
  • In the same month – May, Ranbaxy recalled 30,000 packs of the allergy drugs loratadine and pseudo-ephedrine sulphate extended release tablets because of manufacturing defects in packaging.
  • In March, Sun Pharma recalled a batch of a generic diabetes drug bound for the US after an epilepsy drug was found in it. A patient discovered the error after noticing the wrong medication in the drug bottle.
  • Again in March, Ranbaxy recalled nearly 65,000 bottles of the statin drug atorvastatin calcium (Lipitor) after 20-milligram tablets were found in sealed bottles marked 10-milligrams. A pharmacist in the U.S. discovered the mix up.

Indian media reinforces the point:

Indian media (TNN) also reported that there is no quality control even for life-saving generic drugs and the government is apathetic on ensuring that the quality protocol of these drugs is properly observed.

This happens, as the report states, despite government’s efforts to push generic drugs, as they are more affordable. The report gave an example of a life-saving drug, Liposomal Amphotericin B, which is used to treat fungal infections in critically ill patients.

Are all these drugs safe enough for Indian Patients?

Though sounds awkward, it is a fact that India is a country where ‘export quality’ attracts a premium. Unintentionally though, with this attitude, we indirectly accept that Indian product quality for domestic consumption is not as good.

Unfortunately, in the recent years, increasing number of even ‘export quality’ drug manufacturing units in India are being seriously questioned, warned and banned by the overseas drug regulators, such as USFDA and MHRA, UK, just to ensure dug safety for the patients in their respective countries.

Taking all these into consideration, and noting increasing instances of blatant violations of cGMP standards and ‘Data Integrity’ requirements for ‘export quality’ drugs, one perhaps would shudder to think, what could possibly be the level of conformance to cGMP for the drugs manufactured solely for the consumption of local patients in India.

A cause of concern, as generic drugs are more cost effective to patients:

It has been widely recognized globally that the use of generic drugs significantly reduces out-of-pocket expenditure of the patients and also payers’ spending.

The findings of a study conducted by the Researchers from Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH), Harvard Medical School and CVS Health has just been published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on September 15, 2014. In this study the researchers investigated whether the use of generic versus brand name statins can play a role in medication adherence and whether or not this leads to improved health outcomes. The study concluded that patients taking generic statins were more likely to adhere to their medication and also had a significantly lower rate of cardiovascular events and death.

In this study, the mean co-payment for the generic statin was US$10, as against US$48 for brand-name statins. It is generally expected that the generic drugs would be of high quality, besides being affordable.

I deliberated on a related subject in one of my earlier blog posts of November 11, 2013 titled, “USFDA” Import Bans’: The Malady Calls For Strong Bitter Pills”.

Conclusion:

According to USFDA data, from 2013 onwards, about 20 drug manufacturing facilities across India attracted ‘Import Alerts’ as against seven from China, two each from Australian, Canadian and Japanese units and one each from South African and German facilities.

Unfortunately, despite intense local and global furore on this subject, Indian drug regulators at the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), very strangely, do not seem to be much concerned on the ‘Data Integrity’ issue, at least, not just yet.

In my view, ‘Data Integrity’ issues are mostly not related to any technical or other knowledge deficiency. From the “Warning Letters” of the USFDA to respective Indian companies, it appears that these breaches are predominantly caused by falsification or doctoring of critical data. Thus, it basically boils down to a mindset issue, which possibly pans across the Indian pharma industry, irrespective of size of operations of a company.

Indian Prime Minister’s passionate appeal aimed at all investors, including from India, to “Make in India” and “Sell Anywhere in The World”, extends to pharma industry too, both local and global. The drug makers also seem to be aware of it, but the ghost keeps haunting unabated, signaling that the core mindset has remained unchanged despite periodic lip service and public utterances for corrective measures by a number of head honchos.

Any attempt to trivialize this situation, I reckon, could meet with grave consequences, jeopardizing the thriving pharma exports business of India, and in that process would betray the Prime Ministers grand vision for the country that he epitomized with, “Make in India” and “Sell Anywhere in The World”.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.