Tag Archives: Vaccine

China Coronavirus And API Sourcing – A Threat… Or An Opportunity For India?

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‘2015 – Year of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients’ (API), announced the Government of India by a Press Release on February 25, 2015. This came after ascertaining that over-dependence on imports of bulk drugs or API, especially from China, is detrimental to India’s health interest. This decision was also in sync with the freshly announced, and well-publicized government objective regarding ‘Make in India’.

Two years down the line, on July 15, 2017, eHEALTH publication also deliberated on this issue in an article – ‘Why over dependence on APIs imported from China is harmful for India?’ It reiterated, India has proven capabilities in the generic drug formulations, but over dependence on China for sourcing – 70-75 per cent of APIs does not augur well for the Indian pharmaceutical sector. Because, as any interruption in supply from China can badly impact the sector, jeopardizing the health of millions of people, not just in India, but across the world, as well.

The reason for Indian drug formulation makers depending on China-supplied APIs, is mainly for its low cost, and not for any technological other reason, the article said. Regardless of the India’s announcement – ‘2015 as the year of API’, the API industry continued to struggle without much tangible support. Despite a lot of decisions still being in the pipeline, let me hasten to add, some inconclusive signs of early recovery have been captured in this space by some recent studies.

With the outbreak of the recent ‘coronavirus’ menace, the moment of truth has arrived in the country. On the one hand, it is posing a threat to the country’s API sourcing, on the other it could throw open a door of opportunity for Indian API manufacturers, as the Chinese API prices would start climbing up. But the question is, in which way it would evolve? In this article, I shall focus on this aspect of the new coronavirus menace, starting with a brief description of the background.

China coronavirus – when the alarm bell rang: 

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), on December 31, 2019, it was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The virus did not match any other known virus, raising a great concern. No one knows how it affects people who are sick with it – how they can be treated, and what the countries can do to respond. One week later, on 7 January, Chinese authorities confirmed that they had identified a new virus.

What it does?

This new virus is a coronavirus, which is a large family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, such as SARS and MERS.

Since the virus, reportedly was first detected in Wuhan in people who had visited a local seafood and animal market, it is likely to have transmitted from an animal to humans. Nevertheless, several known coronaviruses are known to be circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. The new coronavirus has been named novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and is the seventh coronavirus known to affect humans.

W.H.O has been working with Chinese authorities and global experts to learn more about it. However, because this is a coronavirus, which usually causes respiratory illness, the world body has circulated advice to people on how to protect themselves and those around them from getting the disease.

The damage, thus far:

Bloomberg on February 02, 2020 reported the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak has risen to 305, with 14,555 confirmed cases worldwide.  The first death outside of China took place in the Philippines on February 01. Alarmingly, 2019-nCoV infections have also spread to at least 15 other countries. These numbers keep increasing.

Nearer home, India, on January 30, 2020, also announced its first case. “One positive case of Novel Coronavirus – a student studying in Wuhan University — has been reported from Kerala,” said a statement released by the Health Ministry. On February 02, 2020, Reuters reported the second case of coronavirus in Kerala.

This scenario prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to meet again on the last Thursday and declare the new coronavirus an international public health emergency.

The impact on the pharma industry:

Responding to the criticality of this situation, health authorities across the world are trying to put in place effective ways to overcome this crisis. In the healthcare space, medical scientists are ‘racing to develop a vaccine to protect people from the virus.’ One lab in California, reportedly. has plans for a potential vaccine to enter human trials by June or July this year.

Alongside, many are wondering about the looming threat that it poses on the API sourcing from China by the global pharmaceutical industry, including India. However, as I said earlier, some Indian experts, are also sensing an opportunity for country’s API manufacturers to fill the possible void, as it gets created.

API sourcing concern:

An exclusive survey conducted by Kemiex, titled ‘Coronavirus impact analysis for APIs, feed and food additives,’ among 97 life sciences professionals, published by them on January 20, 2020, reports some interesting findings. Some of the key ones are, as follows:

  • 85 percent experts foresee API and other ingredient supply disruptions, with 35 percent expecting a high and 50 percent envisaging a low impact.
  • Orders planned for the 1st quarter with delivery in 2nd quarter are expected to be mostly affected, while disruptions might continue a quarter. Only a minority believes the disruptions will last until year end or beyond 2020.
  • The biggest impact is expected from extended Chinese New Year holidays and delayed production start.
  • A first impact analysis based on preliminary information shows that only selected products such as amino acids (taurine…), certain vitamins and other APIs and additives could be affected.
  • European and other suppliers report readiness and stocks to secure delivery to end users during interruptions in China, or some of its districts. respectively.

However, other reports also underscore, with the proliferation of the new coronavirus the incidences of confirmed infection with clear symptoms and deaths are also expected to increase. This may lead the Chinese government to extend lock down several commercially important parts of the country. Which, in turn, could impact, among others, manufacturing and shipments of API and pharma ingredients for several months.

Some green shoots are now visible in India?

Quoting a JM Financial analysis, some media reports predicted, a worsening coronavirus crisis may benefit Indian API manufacturers, as it observed some green shoots in the Indian API manufacturing space. Analyzing the stocks of six local API manufacturers – Galaxy Surfactants Ltd., Fine Organic Industries Ltd., Navin Fluorine International Ltd., SRF Ltd., PI Industries Ltd. and UPL Ltd., it found that the stocks of these companies have beaten the market trend in recent years. They observed, the robust growth of these companies was fueled by end-user industries, and exports to China – which has closed many chemical facilities on environmental concerns.

Moreover, the increase in overall API demand – caused by shortages triggered by a serious disruption of API production in China’s Hubei province, and restriction of movement within China, is likely to drive the prices up with the spread of the epidemic. The cumulative impact of all this, would possibly help the Indian bulk drug manufacturers, significantly, helping India to tide over the API sourcing crisis.

Conclusion:

‘Scientists are racing to develop a coronavirus vaccine, but it could take years to reach the market,’ as media reports highlight. Meanwhile, researchers are, reportedly, also looking at ways of quickly repurposing existing antiviral drugs to see whether any might work against the new coronavirus.

The serious health menace caused by the new coronavirus that prompted the W.H.O to signal it as a global emergency, has also raised a serious concern on API sourcing. This is because, around 80 percent of the API used by drug formulation manufacturers is sourced from China.

Looking only at this aspect of the issue, and also from the Indian perspective, the point to ponder – is it all threat? Or a veiled opportunity worth cashing-on to neutralize, at least, a part of the API sourcing threat?

Against the backdrop of the Indian Government’s announcements, such as, ‘2015 – Year of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients’ (API), alongside the well-publicized ‘Make in India’ campaign, and some recently reported green shoots in this area – the expectation of an ‘opportunity in waiting’, could well be a reality. Who knows? But, a lurking apprehension still lingers!

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Could Vaccine Prevent Heart Attacks?

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Could Vaccine Prevent Even Heart Attacks? The question may sound weird to many, but it really appears so, possibly reducing further need of several expensive medications for lifelong use. A good number of academic institutions, besides some biotechnology companies, are taking rapid strides in the newer areas of vaccine development to protect people from various non-infectious serious ailments, including some fatal disorders, such as heart attacks.

In this article, I shall deliberate on this area.

Picking up the thread:

One of the critically important preventive therapy to save millions of precious lives is – vaccination.  Way back in 1796, Edward Anthony Jenner not only discovered the process of vaccination, but also developed the world’s first smallpox vaccine to save mankind from this highly infectious and life-threatening disease. As per published data, prior to this discovery, the mortality rate for smallpox was as high as up to 35 percent.

Very appropriately, Jenner is often referred to as the “Father of Immunology”, whose pioneering work has saved more lives than the work of any other person, in that era. Later, in 1901 Emil Von Behring received the first Nobel Prize (ever) for discovering Diphtheria serum therapy for yet another highly infectious disease, affecting mostly infants and children.

Nevertheless, the pioneering work of Edward Anthony Jenner laid the primary substructure of immunology, which continued to be developed as a robust prophylactic measure against various types of, initially infectious and communicable diseases.

Expanded scope for vaccines:

Gradually, the global focus of vaccine development started expanding from prophylactic vaccination for communicable disease such as smallpox, diphtheria, malaria and pneumonia; to non-infectious disorders, like cancer, diabetes and atherosclerosis that often leads to heart attacks and strokes; including several therapeutic vaccines, especially for cancer. The list continues.

In other words, from inducing long-life immunity against exogenous or foreign antigens in infectious diseases caused by microorganisms, to inducing similar immune reaction against the body’s own molecules, which are responsible for precipitating seriously debilitating or life-threatening pathological changes. These include conditions, such as cardiovascular or metabolic disorders and many other chronic ailments, including various types of the deadly disease – cancer.

Would vaccines prevent even heart attacks?

Let me now get back to where I started from: Would vaccines prevent even heart attacks?

Medical experts often say, until a sudden heart attack occurs, patients with atherosclerosis may show no symptoms for decades. This epitomizes the seriousness of this disorder in human population.

Since long, atherosclerosis used to be considered as ‘a lipid-driven disease caused by the continuous accumulation of cholesterol in the arterial intima.’ However, that concept is changing now based on enough scientific evidences. These clearly indicate that ‘atherosclerosis is predominately a chronic low-grade inflammatory disease of the vessel wall with an interplay of humoral, cellular, and locally produced pro-inflammatory factors.’

Atherosclerosis is a chronic low-grade inflammatory disease:

In the above context, a recent research study has arrested the attention of many medical scientists, including several top cardiologists, across the world. This article, published on June 19, 2017, in the peer-reviewed European Heart Journal reported the development of a vaccine that induces an effective immune response in mice to significantly reduce plasma lipids, systemic and vascular inflammation, and atherosclerosis lesions in the aorta.

Leverages the immune system of the body:

In simple words, this cholesterol-lowering vaccine demonstrates how the immune system of the body can be leveraged to lower blood lipids, signaling a strong potential to make drugs, such as statins, possibly irrelevant.

This is the first intervention study based on a well-established, translational mouse model for hyperlipidemia and atherosclerosis. The research found, as compared with the control group, the vaccine reduced total and LDL cholesterol levels in the mice, as well as reduced signs of fatty build-up in the arteries.

Potentially an effective and economical approach:

The authors believe, the vaccine may represent an effective and economical approach, with higher patient compliance, in the treatment and prevention of similar cardiovascular pathologies. Taking the study to its next stage, they have already enrolled human volunteers to conduct the phase one study, for a detailed scientific assessment on how this vaccine will work for the patients suffering from similar disorders.

Another interesting development:

To give just a flavor of the progress of vaccine development in several areas of serious and life-threatening non-communicable diseases, I am quoting below the following interesting study:

June 1, 2016 issue of ‘The Independent’ reported that scientists of Johannes Gutenberg University in Germany have taken a “very positive step” towards creating a universal vaccine against cancer that makes the body’s immune system attack tumors as if they were a virus. The researchers had taken pieces of cancer’s genetic RNA code, put them into tiny nanoparticles of fat and then injected the mixture into the bloodstreams of three patients in the advanced stages of the disease. The patients’ immune systems responded by producing “killer” T-cells designed to attack cancer.

This vaccine was found to be effective in fighting “aggressively growing” tumors in mice. At the same time, such vaccines are fast and inexpensive to produce, and virtually any tumor antigen (a protein attacked by the immune system) can be encoded by RNA, the report said.

How expensive are the R&D costs for vaccines?

In this context, an important related question may well be raised: How expensive are the R&D costs for vaccines? According to a paper published by the US National Library of Medicine and National Institute of Health (NIH):

“A vaccine candidate entering pre-clinical development in 2011 would be expected to achieve licensure in 2022; all costs are reported in 2022 Canadian dollars (CAD). After applying a 9 percent cost of capital, the capitalized total R&D expenditure amounts to $ 474.88 million CAD.” 

Some key issues and challenges:

Scientific breakthroughs in genetics and biotechnological research, supported by state of art tools related to information technology, a wide range of vaccine development initiatives, targeting both in infectious and non-infectious diseases, are making rapid progress. However, as I had said before, there are some key issues and challenges that need to be addressed, simultaneously. A few examples of which are as follows:

  • Actual cost of vaccines goes much beyond their R&D expenses. This is mainly because of dedicated and highly specialized manufacturing facilities required for their mass-scale production, and then for the distribution of the same, mostly using cold-chains.
  • Around 60 percent of the production costs of vaccines are fixed in nature (National Health Policy Forum. 25. January 2006:14). Thus, such products will need to have a decent market size to be profitable.
  • Unlike many other medications for chronic ailments, which need to be taken for a long duration, vaccines are administered for a limited number of times, restricting their business potential.

Full neutralization of this cost before keeping a modest margin, could make such high-end vaccines relatively expensive for patients, without adequate financial incentives from the Government.

In conclusion:

The discovery of the interesting vaccine to prevent both fatal and non-fatal heart attacks followed an interesting path, and took a long time of around one and a half decade to go for the phase I human trial. Putting together the facts from the available scientific literatures, the long and arduous path of this journey may be, I reckon, summed up, as follows:

An article published by the Harvard Stem Cell Institute (HSCI) on June 9, 2014 first reported that it’s plausible to prevent heart attacks with vaccination. Nonetheless, it all started even much before that, when in 2003, a group of researchers in France studying families with very high cholesterol levels and very early heart attacks, discovered a specific cholesterol regulator. Mutations in the related gene seemed to be responsible for very high cholesterol levels, and early heart attacks. Further research on the subject continued thereafter, based on this novel finding.

Thereafter, in 2014, HSCI scientists collaborating with researchers at the University of Pennsylvania developed a “genome editing” approach for permanently reducing cholesterol levels in mice with a single injection, potentially reducing heart attack risk by up to 90 percent, reported this Harvard article. ‘Circulation Research’ – a journal of the American Heart Association, published the study online on June 10, 2014.

Currently, in mid 2017, from the article published in the peer-reviewed ‘European Heart Journal’ we get to know that development of a vaccine that can prevent heart attacks is going for phase I clinical trial, following several well-tested and scientific evidence based promises.

The outcome of the final phases of this study will now be keenly followed by the experts. Others will optimistically wait for the D-day – virtually the dawn of a new paradigm of preventing heart attacks through vaccination, well before it can result into any fatal or crippling consequences.

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Sharper Focus On Vaccine: A Huge Scope To Reduce Disease Burden In India

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Several international research studies have conclusively established that the aggressive application of nationally recommended prevention activities could significantly reduce the burden of disease in several areas. Immunization or vaccination program is one such critical areas.

Several ailments, which used to be so common all over the world, can now be effectively prevented through vaccination. The most common and serious vaccine-preventable diseases are: diphtheria, Haemophilus influenzae serotype b (Hib), hepatitis B and C, measles, meningitis, mumps, pertussis, poliomyelitis, rubella, tetanus, tuberculosis, rotavirus, pneumococcal disease and yellow fever.  The list of the World Health Organization (WHO) indicates that vaccines are now available for 25 different diseases.

Thus, vaccination can save millions of lives and morbidity that such diseases still cause to a very large number of global population. Thanks to vaccines, two most scary diseases – small pox (totally) and polio (almost totally), have been eliminated from the world.

No doubt, why vaccination was voted as one of the four most important developments in medicine of the past 150 years, alongside sanitation, antibiotics and anesthesia by readers of the ‘British Medical Journal (BMJ)’ in 2007. It has been decisively proved that vaccines are one of the most successful and cost-effective public health interventions, which help preventing over 3 million deaths every year, throughout the world, topping the list in terms of lives saved.

In tandem, concerted efforts need to be made by both the industry and the Governments to improve affordable access to all these vaccines for a larger section of the population, especially in the developing world.

A crying need still exists:

Nevertheless, there is still a crying need for greater encouragement, more resource deployment and sharper focus towards newer vaccine development for many more dreaded and difficult diseases. One such area is malaria vaccine.

Some areas of new vaccine development:

Following is an example of some newer therapy areas where novel vaccines are now reportedly under development:

  • Malaria vaccine
  • Cancer vaccine
  • AIDS
  • Alzheimer’s disease

Malaria vaccine:

A July 24, 2015 article of the BBC News states, the ‘European Medicines Agency (EMA)’ gave a positive scientific opinion after assessing the safety and effectiveness of the first anti-malarial vaccine of the world – Mosquirix, developed by the British pharma major GlaxoSmithKline.

The vaccine reportedly targets the ‘P. falciparum’, the most prevalent malaria parasite and the deadlier of the two parasites that transmit the disease. At present, in the absence of any licensed vaccines for malaria, the main preventive measures to contain the spread of this parasitic disease are spraying of insecticides, use of other mosquito repellent and mosquito nets.

However, it was observed during its clinical trial that he best protection with this vaccine was achieved among children aged five to 17 months, receiving three doses of the vaccine a month apart, plus a booster dose at 20 months. In this group, cases of severe malaria were cut by a third over a four-year period, the report said.

Some concern was also expressed, as the effectiveness of the vaccine waned over time, making the booster shot essential, without which the vaccine did not cut the rate of severe malaria over the trial period. Moreover, the vaccine did not prove very effective in protecting young babies from severe malaria.

This caused a dilemma for the ‘World Health Organization (WHO)’. On the one hand, the stark reality of malaria killing around 584,000 people a year worldwide, and on the other, lack of conclusiveness in the overall results for this vaccine. Therefore, the world health body decided at that time to further consider about it, soon after the experts’ deliberation on whether to recommend it for children, among whom trials have yielded mixed results, gets completed.

The good news is, on November 18, 2016, Newsweek reported the announcement of the W.H.O, that Mosquirix will be piloted across sub-Saharan Africa in 2018, after a funding approval of US$ 15 million for this purpose.

Cancer vaccines:

According to the National Cancer Institute, which is a part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) of the United States, cancer vaccines belong to a class of substances known as biological response modifiers. Biological response modifiers work by stimulating or restoring the immune system’s ability to fight infections and disease. There are two broad types of cancer vaccines:

  • Preventive (or prophylactic) vaccines, which are intended to prevent cancer from developing in healthy people.

-       Persistent infections with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types can cause cervical cancer, anal cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, and vaginal, vulvar, and penile cancers. Three vaccines are approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to prevent HPV infection: Gardasil®, Gardasil 9®, and Cervarix®.

-       Chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection can lead to liver cancer. The FDA has approved multiple vaccines that protect against HBV infection, such as, Engerix-B and Recombivax HB, which protect against HBV infection only.

  • Treatment (or therapeutic) vaccines, which are intended to treat an existing cancer by strengthening the body’s natural immune response against the cancer. Treatment vaccines are a form of immunotherapy.

-       In April 2010, the USFDA approved the first cancer treatment vaccine. This vaccine, sipuleucel-T (Provenge®), is approved for use in some men with metastatic prostate cancer. It is designed to stimulate an immune response to prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP), an antigen that is found on most prostate cancer cells.

Another type of cancer vaccine is currently being developed, known as the Universal Cancer Vaccine.

  • Universal Cancer Vaccine,  June 1, 2016 issue of ‘The Independent’ reported that scientists of Johannes Gutenberg University in Germany have taken a “very positive step” towards creating a universal vaccine against cancer that makes the body’s immune system attack tumors as if they were a virus. The researchers had taken pieces of cancer’s genetic RNA code, put them into tiny nanoparticles of fat and then injected the mixture into the bloodstreams of three patients in the advanced stages of the disease. The patients’ immune systems responded by producing “killer” T-cells designed to attack cancer.

The vaccine was found to be effective in fighting “aggressively growing” tumors in mice. At the same time, such vaccines are fast and inexpensive to produce, and virtually any tumor antigen (a protein attacked by the immune system) can be encoded by RNA, the report said.

The analysts forecast the global cancer vaccines market to grow at a CAGR of 27.24 percent over the period 2014-2019.

HIV/AIDS Vaccine:

The 21st International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2016) held in Durban, South Africa from July 18 to 22, 2016, revealed that a vaccine against HIV will be trialed in South Africa later in 2016, after meeting the criteria needed to prove it, could help fight the epidemic in Africa. A small trial, known as HVTN100, took place in South Africa in 2015 to test the safety and strength of immunity the vaccine could provide, ahead of any large-scale testing in affected populations.

This development reportedly has its origin in a large landmark 2009 trial of RV 144 vaccine in Thailand, demonstrating the proof of concept that a preventive vaccine with a risk reduction of 31 percent could effectively work.  The trial was supported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNAIDS. The clinical trial participants who received Vacc-4x, reportedly “experienced a 70 percent viral load decrease relative to their level before starting Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART), compared with no notable reduction among placebo recipients.”

Alzheimer’s disease vaccine:

A vaccine for Alzheimer’s disease could be trialed in human within the next 3-5 years, after researchers from the United States and Australia have uncovered a formulation that they say successfully targets brain proteins, which play a role in the development and progression of the disease, states a July 18, 2016 report published in the ‘Medical News Today (MNT)’.

This vaccine generates antibodies that target beta-amyloid and tau proteins in the brain – both of which are considered hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease. In their study, the researchers found that the formulation was effective and well-tolerated in Alzheimer’s mouse models, with no reports of adverse reactions. The vaccine was also able to target the proteins in brain tissue from patients with Alzheimer’s.

Study co-author Prof. Michael Agadjanyan, Institute for Molecular Medicine, California said: “This study suggests that we can immunize patients at the early stages of AD (Alzheimer’s disease), or even healthy people at risk for AD, using our anti-amyloid-beta vaccine, and, if the disease progresses, then vaccinate with another anti-tau vaccine to increase effectiveness.”

If the vaccine continues to show success in these preclinical trials, the researchers envisage that they could be testing the vaccine in individuals at high risk for Alzheimer’s, or those in the early stages of the disease, within the next 3-5 years.

More details on vaccine development:

A 2012 report on vaccines, published by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) give details of vaccines under development.

Vaccine requirements of the developing world: 

Developing countries of the world are now demanding more of those vaccines, which no longer feature in the immunization schedules of the developed nations. Thus, to supply these vaccines at low cost will be a challenge, especially for the global vaccine manufacturers, unless the low margins get well compensated by high institutional demand.

Issues and challenges:

To produce a safe, effective and marketable vaccine, besides R&D costs, it takes reportedly around 12 to 15 years of painstaking research and development process.

Moreover, one will need to realize that the actual cost of vaccines will always go much beyond their R&D expenses. This is mainly because of dedicated and highly specialized manufacturing facilities required for mass-scale production of vaccines, and then for the distribution of the same mostly using cold-chains.

Around 60 percent of the production costs of vaccines are fixed in nature (National Health Policy Forum. 25. January 2006:14). Thus, such products will need to have a decent market size to be profitable. Unlike many other medications for chronic ailments, which need to be taken for a long duration, vaccines are administered for a limited number of times, restricting their business potential.

Thus, the long lead time required for the ‘mind to market’ process for vaccine development together with high cost involved in their clinical trials/marketing approval process, special bulk/institutional purchase price and limited demand through retail outlets, restrict the research and development initiatives for vaccines, unlike many other pharmaceutical products.

Besides, even the newer vaccines will mostly be required for the diseases of the poor, like Malaria, Tuberculosis, HIV and ‘Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)’ in the developing countries, which may not necessarily guarantee a decent return on investments for vaccines, unlike many other newer drugs. Thus, the key issue for developing a right type of newer vaccine will continue to be a matter of pure economics.

India needs a vibrant vaccine business sector:

For a greater focus on all important disease prevention initiatives, there is a need to build a vibrant vaccine business sector in India. To achieve this objective the government should create an enabling ecosystem for the vaccine manufacturers and the academics to work in unison. At the same time, the state funded vaccine R&D centers should be encouraged to concentrate more on the relevant vaccine development projects, ensuring a decent return on their investments for long-term economic sustainability.

Often, these stakeholders find it difficult to deploy sufficient fund to take their vaccine projects successfully through various stages of clinical development to obtain marketing approval from the drug regulator, while earning a decent return on investments. This critical issue needs to be urgently addressed by the Government to make the disease prevention initiatives in the country sustainable.

A possible threat to overcome: 

As per reports, most Indian vaccine manufacturers get a major chunk of their sales revenue from exports to UN agencies, charitable organizations like, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, GAVI, and other country-specific immunization programs.

The report predicts, the virtual monopoly that Indian vaccine manufacturers have enjoyed in these areas, will now be challenged by China, as for the first time in 2012, the Chinese national regulatory authority received ‘pre-qualification’ certification of WHO that allows it to approve locally manufactured vaccines to compete for UN tenders.

Conclusion:

Keeping this in perspective, vaccine related pragmatic policy measures need to be taken in the country for effective disease prevention, covering all recommended age groups, of course, with an equal focus on their effective implementation, without delay. Consequently, this will not only help reduce the disease burden in the country, but also provide the much-awaited growth momentum to the vaccine market in India.

Alongside, increasing number of modern imported vaccines coming in, would help India address one of its key healthcare concerns effectively, and in a holistic way.

It is about time to aggressively garner adequate resources to develop more modern vaccines in the country. In tandem, a rejuvenated thrust to effectively promote and implement vaccine awareness campaigns, would help immensely in the nation’s endeavor for disease prevention with vaccines, that offers a huge scope to reduce disease burden, for a healthier India.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Vaccine Market of India: A rejuvenation is in progress

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Even in couple of decades back, ‘Vaccines Market’ in India did not use to be considered as a focus area by many pharmaceutical companies. Commoditization of this market with low profit margin and unpredictable interest of the government/the doctors towards immunization were the main reasons. Large global players like Glaxo exited the vaccine market at that time by withdrawing products like, Tetanus Toxoid, Triple Antigen and other vaccines from the market.

Currently, the above scenario is fast changing. The vaccine market is getting rejuvenated not only with the National Immunization Program (NIP) of the country, but also with the emergence of newer domestic vaccines players and introduction of novel vaccines by the global players, which we shall discuss below.

In addition, the ‘Indian Academy of Pediatrics (IAP) Committee on Immunization’ now recommends the ‘best individual practices schedule’ for the children in consultation with their respective parents. Such schedule may not conform to NIP and include newer vaccines, broadening the scope of use of vaccines in general.

Global Market:

According to GBI Research Report, overall global vaccines market was valued at US$ 28 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach US$ 56.7 billion by 2017 with a CAGR of 11.5%. The key growth driver of this segment will be introduction of newer vaccines, which are currently either in the regulatory filing stage or in the late stages of clinical development.

The important international players in the vaccines market are GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Pfizer, Novartis AG, Merck and SP-MSD, representing around 88% of the total vaccine segment globally.

Indian Market:

Year

Value

   Rs. Cr.

Growth  %

2007

389

-

2008

383

-2

2009

476

24

2010

726

53

Source: IMS – Health MAT June 2010

India is one of largest markets for all types of vaccines in the world. The growth is being driven by the new generation and combination vaccines, like DPT with Hepatitis B, Hepatitis A and Injectable polio vaccine. The demand for veterinary vaccines is also showing ascending trend. Pediatric vaccines contribute to around 60% of the total vaccines market in India.

McKinsey in its report titled, “India Pharma 2020: Propelling access and acceptance, realizing true potential“ stated that at 2% penetration, the vaccines market of India is significantly under-penetrated with an estimated turnover of around US$ 250 million, where the private segment accounts for two-thirds of the total. McKinsey expects the market to grow to US$ 1.7 billion by 2020.

In India companies like, Serum Institute, Shantha Biotecnics, Bharat Biotech and Panacea Biotech are poised to take greater strides in this direction. Bharat Biotech is incidentally the largest Hepatitis B vaccine producer in the world. Likewise, Serum Institute is reportedly one of the largest suppliers of vaccines to over a 130 countries of the world and claim that ’1 out of every 2 children immunized worldwide gets at least one vaccine produced by Serum Institute.’

Indian Vaccine Market:  Domestic vs MNCs:

In the domestic vaccine market the market share of the Indian players is gradually improving as compared to their multinational counterparts.

Types

June 2009 MAT

% Value Growth

June 2010 MAT

% Value Growth
Indian Companies

55%

27

59%

64
MNCs

45%

21

41%

38

Source IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top 10 Companies:

Rank

Company

Value     (Rs. Cr)

%Market Share

%Value Growth
Vaccine Market

726

100

53

1

GSK

131

18

23

2

 Sanofi Aventis

129

18

>>

3

 Pfizer

71

10

75

4

 Novartis

68

9

-12

5

 Serum Institute

68

9

40

6

 Panacea Biotech

59

8

57

7

 VHB Lifesciences

33

5

>>

8

 Zydus Cadila

32

4

56

9

 MSD

31

4

>>

10

 Shantha Biotech

24

3

15

Source IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top Therapies:

Therapies

Value

     (Rs.Cr.)

%Market Share

% Value Growth

Incr. Value          (Rs. Cr)

June’09 MAT

June’10 MAT

June’09 MAT

June’10 MAT
Vaccine Market

726.1

100

24

53

93

250
Toddler Vaccine

211

29

55

60

47

79
Adult Vaccine

205

28

-4

22

-7

37
Paediatric Combination Vaccines

146

20

67

>>

28

77
Paediatric Single Vaccines

131

18

25

32

20

32
All Other Vaccines

33

5

—

431

6

27

Source IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top 10 Brands:

Rank

Brands

Company

Value

       (Rs.Cr.)

Value Growth %

Incr. value   

(Rs. Cr.)

June’09 Mat

June’10 MAT

June’09 Mat

June’10 MAT
Vaccine Market

726

24

53

93.1

250
1 Prevenar Pfizer

71

150

75

24

30
2 Rabipur Novartis

68

4

-12

3

-9
3 Pentaxim Sanofi Aventis

46

>>

>>

7

39
4 Havrix GSK

37

9

47

2

12
5 Varivax VHB

33

59

>>

5

18
6 Vaxirab Zydus Cadila

32

-11

56

-3

11
7 Varil Rix GSK

25

-3

-9

-1

-2
8) Gardasil MSD

22

—-

>>

5

16
9 Verorab Sanofi Aventis

21

—-

—-

0

21
10 Rotarix GSK

21

—-

>>

10

11

Source: IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Indian Vaccine Market: Top 10 New Introductions:

NIs

Company

Launch Date

Value

(Rs. Cr)

Incr. Value

(Rs. Cr)
Vaccine Market

104

79
Gardasil MSD 10/2008

22

16
Rotarix GSK 07/2008

21

11
Pentavac Serum Institute 10/2008

16

12
Cervarix GSK 02/2009

11

10
Polprotec Panacea Biotech 07/2008

9

6
Xprab Ranbaxy 10/2009

7

7
Quadrovax Serum Institute 11/2008

4

3
Comvac- 5 Bharat Biotech 02/2009

3

3
Pentavac – SD Serum Institute 11/2009

2

2
Shan HIB- DPT Shantha Biotech 09/2008

2

1

Source:IMS-Health – June 2010 MAT

Action areas to boost growth:

McKinsey in its above report ‘India Pharma 2020’ indicated that the action in the following 4 areas by the vaccine players will drive the vaccine market growth in India:

  • Companies need to go for local production of vaccines or leverage supply partnerships. GlaxoSmithKline’s local partnership for the HiB vaccine with Bio-manguinhos in Brazil has been cited as an example.
  • Companies will need to conduct studies on the economic impact of vaccination and establish vaccine safety and performance standards.
  • Extension of vaccine coverage beyond pediatricians and inclusion of general practitioners, consulting physicians and gynaecologists will be essential.
  • Companies will need to enhance supply chain reliability and reduce costs.

Conclusions:

On January 7, 2012, while requesting the ‘Overseas Indian Medical Professionals’ to partner with the institutions in India, the Health Minister, in his address, announced that the Ministry of Health has already introduced the second dose of measles vaccine and Hepatitis-B vaccination across the country. Moreover, from December, 2011 a ‘Pentavalent Vaccine’ has been introduced, initially in 2 States, covering 1.5 million children of India.

All these augur quite well for the country. However, keeping in view of the humongous disease burden of India, immunization program with various types of vaccines should receive active encouragement from the government as disease prevention initiatives, at least, keeping the future generation in mind.

If such policy measures are initiated in the country, without delay, the domestic vaccine market , in turn, will receive further growth momentum, together with newer players and modern vaccines coming in, to help addressing effectively a significant area of the healthcare concerns of the country.

By: Tapan J Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Encourage vaccine research and improve its access to demonstrate ‘prevention is better than cure’

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Vaccines are one of the most successful and cost-effective public health interventions, which help preventing over 2 million deaths every year.

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines vaccines as:

“A vaccine is any preparation intended to produce immunity to a disease by stimulating the production of antibodies. Vaccines include, for example, suspensions of killed or attenuated microorganisms, or products or derivatives of microorganisms. The most common method of administering vaccines is by injection, but some are given by mouth or nasal spray.”

Types of Vaccines:

As per the ‘National Institute of Health (NIH)’ of USA, following are some types of vaccines that researchers usually work on:

  • Live, attenuated vaccines
  • Inactivated vaccines
  • Subunit vaccines
  • Toxoid vaccines
  • Conjugate vaccines
  • DNA vaccines
  • Recombinant vector vaccines

The first vaccine:

In 1796, Edward Anthony Jenner not only discovered the process of vaccination, alongside developed the first vaccine of the world for mankind – smallpox vaccine. To develop this vaccine Jenner acted upon the observation that milkmaids who caught the cowpox virus did not catch smallpox.

As per published data prior to his discovery the mortality rate for smallpox was as high as up to 35%. Thus, Jenner is very often referred to as the “Father of Immunology”, whose pioneering work has “saved more lives than the work of any other person.”

Later on in 1901 Emil Von Behring received the first Nobel Prize (ever) for discovering Diphtheria serum therapy.

The future scope of vaccines:

The future scope of vaccines is immense as several potentially preventable diseases, as indicated below remain still unaddressed.

Examples of effective Vaccines Examples of Potentially VaccineTreatable Diseases
Bacterial
  • Diphtheria
  • Haemophilus influenza type B
  • Meningitis A, C
  • Pneumococcus
  • Enterococcus
  • Meningitis B, W, Y
  • Group A Streptococcus
  • Staphylococcus
Viral
  • Varicella
  • Hepatitis B and C
  • Influenza
  • Polio
  • Pandemic influenza
  • RSV
  • West Nile Virus
  • Epstein Barr Virus
Other
  • Cancer
  • Alzheimer’s disease
  • Substance abuse
  • Autoimmune disorders

Source: Deutsche Bank Report 

Expanded focus for vaccines:

The focus of the global vaccine industry also has been expanded from prophylactic vaccination for communicable disease (e.g. DTP vaccine) to therapeutic vaccines (e.g. Anti-cancer vaccines) and then possibly non-communicable disease vaccines (e.g. vaccines for coronary artery disease).

The Issues and Challenges:

To produce a safe and effective marketable vaccine, it takes reportedly around 12 to 15 years of painstaking research and development process involving an investment ranging between US $500 million and over $1 billion dollars (Ibid, 7).

Moreover, one will need to realize that the actual cost of vaccines will always go much beyond their R&D expenses. This is mainly because of dedicated and highly specialized manufacturing facilities required for mass-scale production of vaccines and then for the distribution of the same mostly using cold-chains.

Around 60% of the production costs for vaccines are fixed in nature (National Health Policy Forum. 25. January 2006:14). Thus such products will need to have a decent market size to be profitable.

Unlike many other medications for chronic ailments, which need to be taken for a long duration, vaccines are administered for a limited number of times, restricting their business potential.

Thus, the long lead time required for the ‘mind to market’ process for vaccine development together with high cost involved in their clinical trials/marketing approval process, special bulk/institutional purchase price and limited demand through retail outlets, restrict the research and development initiatives for vaccines, unlike many other pharmaceutical products.

Besides, even the newer vaccines will be required mostly for the diseases of the poor, like Malaria, Tuberculosis, HIV and ‘Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs)’ in the developing countries, which may not necessarily guarantee a decent return on investments for vaccines, unlike many other newer drugs. As a result, the key issue for developing a right type of newer vaccine will continue to be a matter of pure economics.

A great initiative called GAVI: 

Around 23 million children of the developing countries are still denied of important and life-saving vaccines, which otherwise come rather easily to the children of the developed nations of the world.

To resolve this inequity in January 2000, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) was formed. This initiative was mainly aimed at generating sufficient fund to ensure availability of vaccines for children living in the 70 poorest countries of the world.

The GAVI Alliance has been instrumental in improving access to six common infant vaccines, including those for hepatitis B and yellow fever. GAVI is also working to introduce pneumococcal, rotavirus, human papilloma virus, meningococcal, rubella and typhoid vaccines in not too distant future.

A recent example:

As if to vindicate the above points, Reuters on December 16, 2011 reported that  “Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline are increasing sales of cut-price pneumonia vaccine to developing countries by more than 50 percent, marking the scale-up of an international program to protect millions of children.

GAVI is buying an additional 180 million doses of Pfizer’s pneumococcal vaccine Prevenar 13 and a similar quantity of GSK’s Synflorix at a deeply discounted price of US $3.50 a shot.”

Success with vaccines in disease prevention:

Diphtheria incidence in the US  – Mortality 5/10,000 cases Peak Incidence (1921) Incidence today

2,06,939

1

 

Tetanus incidence in the US – Mortality 3/10 cases Peak Incidence (1927) Incidence today

1,314

40

 

H. Influenza type B incidence in the US – Mortality 2-3/100 cases Peak Incidence (1927) Incidence today

20,000

363

Source: Ehreth Vaccine 21:4105-4117

Development of vaccines through the passage of time:

No. of vaccines

Year

Vaccines
1. 1780-1800

Smallpox

(first vaccine for any disease)
2. 1860-1880

Cholera
1880-1900

Rabies
6.

Tetanus

Typhoid fever

Bubonic plague
11 1920-1940

Diphtheria

Pertussis

Tuberculosis

Yellow fever

Typhus
16 1940-1960

Influenza

Polio

Japanese encephalitis

Anthrax

Adenovirus-4 and 7
24 1960-1980

Oral polio

Measles

Mumps

Rubella

Chicken pox

Pneumonia

Meningitis

Hepatitis B
28 1980-2000

Haemophilus influenzae type b

Hepatitis A

Lyme disease

Rotavirus
29 2000-2010

Human papilloma virus

Current trend in vaccine development:

Malarial Vaccine:

Reuters on December 20, 2011 reported that an experimental malaria vaccine has been developed by the British scientists, which has the potential to neutralize all strains of the most deadly species of malaria parasite.

In October 2011, the data published for a large clinical trial conducted in Africa by GlaxoSmithKline on their experimental malaria vaccine revealed that the risk of children getting malaria had halved with this vaccine. Reuters also reported that other teams of researchers around the world are now working on different approaches to develop a malaria vaccine.

Tuberculosis vaccines:

On August 11, 2011, Aeras and the Oxford-Emergent Tuberculosis Consortium (OETC) announced with a ‘Press Release’ the commencement of a Phase IIb ‘proof-of-concept efficacy trial’ of a new investigational tuberculosis (TB) vaccine. OETC indicated that clinical trial for the drug will be undertaken by them in Senegal and South Africa with primary funding support from the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP).

Cancer vaccines:

Cancer vaccines are, in fact, biological response modifiers, which work by stimulating or restoring the ability of the immune system to fight the disease. There are two broad types of cancer vaccines:

  • Preventive vaccines:  To prevent cancer in healthy people
  • Therapeutic vaccines:  To treat cancer by strengthening the natural defense mechanism of the human body against the disease.

The United States Food and Drug Administration (US-FDA) has approved the following cancer vaccines, which protect against two types of HPV that cause approximately 70% of all cases of cervical cancer globally:

  • Gardasil of Merck & Company
  • Cervarix of  GlaxoSmithKline

The US FDA has also approved a cancer preventive vaccine that protects against HBV infection, which can cause liver cancer. It has been reported that the original HBV vaccine was approved in 1981 and currently most children in the US are vaccinated against HBV after their birth.

In addition, the US regulator has also approved a cancer vaccine for treatment of certain types of metastatic prostate cancer.

HIV Vaccines:

‘The AIDS Vaccine 2011 conference’ held in Bangkok in the month of September, 2011 discussed some of the latest findings on the following two vaccines for prevention and control of HIV disease progression:

  • A large trial of RV 144 vaccine in Thailand demonstrated the proof of concept that a preventive vaccine with a risk reduction of 31% could effectively work.  The trial was supported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNAIDS.
  • Bionor Pharma announced that clinical trial participants who received Vacc-4x “experienced a 70% viral load decrease relative to their level before starting Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART), compared with no notable reduction among placebo recipients.”

Promising ‘Therapeutic Vaccines’ undergoing clinical trial:

‘FierceVaccines’ in its October 27, 2011 reported the following 10 most promising therapeutic vaccines, which are now undergoing clinical trials on humans:

Molecule Company Indication
ICT-107 ImmunoCellular Therapeutics Glioblastoma
VGX-3100 Inovio Pharmaceuticals Cervical cancer
MAGE-A3 GlaxoSmithKline Skin, lung cancer
Neu-Vax RXi Pharmaceuticals Breast cancer
AE37 Antigen Express Breast cancer
NexVax2 ImmusanT Celiac disease
ADXS-HPV Advaxis Cervical, head and neck cancer
CRS-207 Aduro BioTech Pancreatic cancer
PEV7 Pevion Biotech Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis
GI-4000 GlobeImmune Pancreatic cancer

Future scope for cancer vaccines:

One school of scientists firmly believes that out of all cancers diagnosed each year globally, various types of microbes contribute 15% to 25% as a causative factor for this dreaded disease, as indicated below:

Infectious Agents

Type of Organism

Associated Cancers
Hepatitis B virus (HBV)

Virus

 Hepatocellular carcinoma(a type of liver cancer)
Hepatitis C virus (HCV)

Virus

 Hepatocellular carcinoma(a type of liver cancer)
Human papilloma virus (HPV) types 16 and 18, as well as other HPV types

Virus

 Cervical cancer; vaginal cancer;vulvar cancer; oropharyngeal cancer(cancers of the base of the tongue,

tonsils, or upper throat);

anal cancer; penile cancer;

squamous cell carcinoma of the skin
Epstein-Barr virus

Virus

 Cancer of the upper part ofthe throat behind the nose
Human herpes virus 8 (HHV8)

Virus

 Kaposi sarcoma
Human T-cell lymphotropic virus

Virus

 Adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma
Helicobacter pylori

Bacterium

 Stomach cancer
Schistosomes

Parasite

 Bladder cancer
Liver flukes

Parasite

 Cholangio carcinoma(a type of liver cancer)

Source: The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)

These findings open the doors of unique opportunities to develop both preventive and therapeutic vaccines to address the life threatening near fatal ailment of mankind – cancer.

Conclusion:

Developing countries of the world are now demanding more of those vaccines, which no longer feature in the immunization schedules of the developed nations. Thus to supply these vaccines at low cost will be a challenge, especially for the global vaccine manufacturers, unless the low margins get well compensated by high institutional demand.

To effectively focus on all important disease prevention initiatives, there is also a need to build a vibrant vaccine business sector in India. To achieve these dual objectives the government should create an enabling ecosystem for the vaccine manufacturers, academics and the government funded vaccine R&D centers to concentrate more with the relevant vaccine development projects ensuring a decent return on investments, for long term public health interest.

More often than not, the above stakeholders find it difficult to deploy sufficient fund to take their vaccine projects successfully through various stages of clinical development to obtain marketing approval from the drug regulator, working out a decent return on investments. This critical issue needs to be appropriately and urgently addressed by the Government to make the disease prevention initiatives in the country sustainable, demonstrating to all concerned that disease ‘prevention is better than cure’.

By: Tapan J Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.