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Physicians’ Increasing Digital Proficiency And Its Implication

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At a time, when an unexpected and unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic struck a catastrophic impact on human lives, livelihood, and the global economy the healthcare sector continued surging ahead. This is being fueled by exponential advances in medical science, and the pandemic-triggered explosion of digital technologies, data access, analytics – besides emergence of more informed and empowered consumers with new expectations and aspirations.

Echoing this, Deloitte’s paper - ‘2022 Global Health Care Outlook’ articulated: ‘The global health care sector continues to rise up to the new challenges presented by the ongoing pandemic, which continues to dominate health care systems’ attention and resources.’

No more than just a couple of years back, none could predict that a pandemic in these modern days, would have the power to initiate the unforeseen changes so quickly. This is especially applicable to – mostly tradition bound and slow to change – the pharmaceutical industry, even in India, which gets reflected in the growth of this sector. That too, amid sporadic disruptions in the operational areas of many companies.

As reported on December 29, 2021, Indian Pharma Industry registered a growth of 15% in 2021 led by growth of Covid-19 products, against a growth of 3% last year. The report emphasized that the challenges posed by the pandemic gave rise to new opportunities for the pharma sector to evolve quickly under changing circumstances.

Which is why, many players are being compelled to adapt newer digital processes and practices to survive and excel – while navigating through this uncharted frontier. These will call for growing investments for paving a high-tech digital pathway, primarily for an effective customer engagement, besides refinement of the product life cycle through digitization.

To give a sense of perspective on strategic implications of increasing digital proficiency of physicians, particularly in the context of an effective, patient-centric engagement by pharma companies, I shall focus on this development, in this article.

HCPs digital proficiency poses a fresh challenge – it’s real:

Increasing digital proficiency of HCPs during Covid-19 pandemic poses a fresh challenge to pharma marketers for several reasons. It’s so real, which will invite many fundamental strategic changes, as Covid-19 isn’t going anywhere, at least, anytime soon, contrary to what many people are expecting.

The emergence of Delta and Omicron like variants that infected a large number of fully vaccinated people, as well, is expected to continue. For example, as reported on January 27, 2022: ‘Just as the omicron surge starts to recede in parts of the U.S., scientists have their eye on another coronavirus variant spreading rapidly in parts of Asia and Europe.’

Increasing digital savviness of HCPs is now unstoppable. It is expected to keep rolling at faster a faster pace now than ever before. Endorsing this trend, an article published in the Pharmaceutical Executiveon January 20, 2022, made some interesting observations.

The author underscored that the trend of the digital shift of HCPs in their professional space, is an outcome of a catalytic effect of the pandemic. It poses a new challenge for the life sciences industry, requiring a complete revamp of the content strategy and customer engagement channels, for each specialty. It further said: ‘The wave of consumerism led by digital natives has impacted HCPs when it comes to engaging with content on various digital channels for personal consumption.’  

A recent research study vindicates the magnitude of the challenge:

A recently published Indegene study, revealed some thought-provoking areas in this space. The research surveyed 984 physicians from the United States, Europe, India, and China for this study. All participants have >10 years of experience and represent a broad spectrum of specialty areas. According to Indegene, the process of surveying HCPs had started since 2014, to identify how their digital habits manifest and how do they change. Some of the key findings of the study include:

  • More HCPs, in general, are increasingly adopting digital channels to consume content.
  • 77% of HCPs use digital channels primarily for personal learning and development.
  • 68% of HCPs prefer short webinars or webcasts over other virtual
    engagement channels, globally.
  • Only 47% of HCPs prefer receiving communication through the marketing e-mail channel, although, marketing emails are among the top 5 channels used by pharma companies to engage HCPs. 
  • 62% of HCPs are overwhelmed by product promotional content pushed by pharma companies on various digital channels.
  • 70% of HCPs said that pharma representatives do not understand their requirements completely. Further, 62% of HCPs said that the most significant area where pharma representatives can add value is, by understanding the needs of HCPs and sharing only relevant content with them to make the interactions more insightful. The one-size-fits-all approach will no longer work, and pharma companies will have to invest in greater personalization at scale and build better content development and operations capabilities.
  • Pharma to consider using digital channels to provide HCPs on demand access to reps and content.
  • Need to map and implement geographic variations in HCP preferences for content, channels, device, and time.

This evolving trend sends clear signals to pharma marketers that need for professional engagement with the HCPs has to be on their own terms in the new normal

‘Engaging HCPs on their own terms’ – the need of the new normal:

This emerging need also came out clearly in another recent Global Physician Specialty Survey by Medscape - with over 12,000 participants in key specialties across Europe, Latin America, Canada, Asia, and MENA.

It provided some actionable insights, highlighting online content consumption habits of HCPs across the globe, in the new normal. This study also found: ‘The pandemic has had an undeniable impact on the interactions between HCPs and the pharmaceutical industry, with the shift towards virtual engagement and online events likely to be long-lasting.’

Based on this finding, it flagged a critical issue. This is, while the consumption of online medical content is growing and traditional in-person meetings are still not completely back on the agenda, how can pharma players reimagine the way they reach their target audience? This is indeed a primary business requirement to maintain respective drug company’s share of voice and foster relationships with their key customers. The key takeaway from this study includes the following:

  • Being incredibly time poor even now, HCPs mostly prefer to engage with the pharma companies on their own terms.
  • Compared to traditional in-person interactions, most HCPs feel, digital engagement channels offer them greater flexibility that they desire.
  • Over half of the survey respondents rated their online consumption of digital content higher, or much higher now than before the pandemic.

Conclusion:

On the positive side, during a short span of the last couple of years, Covid-19 pandemic has also triggered unprecedented advances in various critical areas of medical science and related areas. These include, remote healthcare services, digital technologies, ease of access to required data by all, the application of sophisticated analytics and above all emergence of an increasing number of digitally empowered customers. Consequently, aided by greater disease awareness and the need for prevention, the ‘self-care’ space also witnessed exponential advances.

Besides, the pandemic has also offered a fresh opportunity to the pharma and biotech sectors – to leverage the break in the cloud for accelerating all-round innovation – charting new frontiers of the modern digital world to remodel their business models for a faster growth in a new paradigm. Although, pharma customers have remained mostly unchanged, their expectations, behavior, practices, and preferences have undergone a metamorphosis. Some of these changes may be stark, and more may be a bit nuanced. Marketers, need to map all the changes, which are specific to their organizations, to excel in the new paradigm.

That said and, as pointed out above, results of expert surveys and syndicated studies in this area, send a clear signal about the pandemic-triggered – increasing digital proficiency of HCPs, even in India. This trend needs to be leveraged for a thorough overhaul of pharma’s customer engagement models. This is a new ball game of the new normal – having a huge impact on the business performance of drug companies.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Create Novel Marketing Pathways As Covid Mutants Keep Emerging

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The World’s battle against wave after wave unsettling onslaught of Coronavirus on human lives and livelihood continues, since December 2019. The first wave was triggered by the novel Covid-19 from Wuhan in China, the second by its deadly – Delta variant, and now – the third by Omicron. In India, first case of Covid-19 was reported on January 31, 2020.

Initially, global experts contemplated vaccines to prevent and contain Covid-19 and were the best hope for ending the pandemic. However, the effectiveness of existing Covid vaccines apparently declines against its subsequent mutants. This is evident even in India when the next variant Omicron commenced its onslaught.

The good news is, AstraZeneca has now claimed, a third booster shot of its Covid-19 vaccine willsignificantly boost antibody levels against the Omicron variant. However, Omicron may not be the last Covid-19 variant, as it appears today.

As the world grapples with the highly mutated Omicron, scientists have identified another new strain of the COVID-19 causing virus – in Southern France – known as ‘IHU’. This B.1.640.2 variant was reported by researchers at institute IHU Mediterranee Infection in at least 12 cases. However, it is too early to speculate on how this variant behaves as far as infection and protection from vaccines is concerned. This process is likely to take, at least, some more time.

Thus, in the current situation, when increasing numbers of even fully vaccinated individuals are getting re-infected caused by emerging mutants of Covid-19, and some more than once, the focus expanded towards more effective disease treatment. Some countries, such as the US, have decided for the 3rd booster shot of Covid-19 vaccine. Israel has even gone for the 4th booster shot of Covid vaccine. Be that as it may, in this fast-evolving scenario, even bright pharma marketers have been experiencing new strategic challenges, as we move on. Against the above backdrop, this article will delve into that space, focusing on some of the new trends of the new normal.

Pharma’s focus expands towards more effective Covid specific treatment:

Visualizing the way Covid-19 pandemic could possibly pan out in the foreseeable future, several global pharma and biotech companies have started focusing on specific treatment for this virus, ensuring speedy patient recovery.

For example, on November 21, 2020, the U.S. FDA issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for a cocktail therapy of casirivimab and imdevimab for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults and pediatric patients.

Just a month later, on December 22, 2021, the U.S. FDA issued another emergency use authorization (EUA) for Pfizer’s (nirmatrelvir tablets and ritonavir tablets, co-packaged for oral use). This was also for the treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in adults and pediatric patients.

A day after Pfizer’s the first oral COVID-19 treatment, approval, on December 23, 2022, the U.S. FDA issued one more emergency use authorization (EUA) for Merck’s molnupiravir. This is the second antiviral pill authorized in the U.S, for the treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in adults. Nearer home, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has also given EUA to Molnupiravir for the treatment of adult patients.

Interestingly, French regulators rejected Merck’s molnupiravir pill for low efficacy. They found other therapies were much more effective than this molecule. Even in India on January 06, 2022, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) also expressed safety concerns on Molnupiravir. Thus, it has not been included in the national list of Covid treatments in India. That said, such brilliant initiatives by several pharma companies in the battle for saving lives and livelihoods against Covid-19 pandemic, made those companies household names like never before.

Covid made several pharma companies household names, but not brands:

This point was restated in a recent article, published in the Fierce Pharma on December 22, 2021. It emphasized, Covid-19 ‘has brought the words of the pharma industry into people’s lives like never before: Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech, AstraZeneca and Merck have become household names.’ One may not remember the names of their Covid products, but will mostly know the company.

Many people have now started referring to Covid vaccines and drugs in generic names. As from the very beginning we started hearing people saying, like – I got ‘AstraZeneca Vaccines’, ‘Remdesivir’, or ‘Covid Cocktail therapy’. Company names usually followed the generic names in most cases. Although, ‘that’s been good for pharma’s reputation, but has left marketers in a bind about branding, commented the above article.

Most Covid-19 drugs and vaccine brands are on ‘emergency use approval’

In the Covid dominated year of 2021, drug and biotech companies managed to get USFDA approval for 55 new drugs. However, many of those drugs and vaccines got only Emergency Use Approval (EUA) and only under emergency use basis. This basically means, under EUA these companies did not get full marketing approval and were handicapped to go whole hog with the usual new brand marketing campaigns.  This critical issue is expected to remain even in 2022.

In a situation, such as this, when the full scale branding initiatives can’t be undertaken, intenseCorporate Branding Campaigns, I reckon, would pay a rich dividend. This process will be quite different from creative new brand marketing in the old normal. Some global innovator companies are using even the mass media to promote their respective vaccines, albeit differently.

Such promotions include, Open Letter from the Company CEO, creative use of TV shows, messages of the head honchos through twitter or word of mouth campaigns – creating a snowballing effect. Alongside, healthcare marketing professionals are also intensifying their Covid-vaccine ad campaigns, sans brand names, to increase awareness and persuade more people to get vaccinated, soon.

To move in this direction, at least, during EUA period for Covid drugs and vaccines, hybridization of pharma marketing will be necessary in many cases, which won’t be an easy task for all, though.

Hybridization of pharma marketing – necessary – but not an easy task:

Based on experience of almost the last two years, many drug companies have realized that virtual-only customer engagement models have some serious shortcomings to fetch desired outcomes. This issue was studied and well-articulated in an article, published in the Reuters Events on November 30, 2021.

It found: “Virtual-only engagement can make it harder to create a real connection.” Further, as the paper articulated: “Even if HCPs share their video, we are losing the third dimension, hence losing out on parts of that personal component.’ Besides, although, online meetings are flexible regarding timing, if a doctor doesn’t dial-in, there is only a small chance the meeting will happen later that day, unlike waiting in a clinic for the interview to take place.

To address this issue, pharma players are now in various stages of creation and adoption of their respective hybrid marketing models. However, the process offers its own challenges. Working out customer-specific hybrid engagement models are a different ball game altogether- requiring very different skill sets, continuous training and above all a very different mindset.

Conclusion:

As reported on January 06, 2022, rapidly spreading Omicron variant of the novel Coronavirus threatens to rewrite the business recovery timelines, even in India. Even recently, many CEOs and top executives have opined, businesses would have to live with Covid-19 uncertainty. The article further added: ‘Many companies have suspended their return-to-work plans and are reassessing business continuity measures as a third wave of the pandemic starts to surge.’ Most CEOs also expressed one of their top priorities was to ensure Covid-19 protocols were being followed and all employees were safe.

Similar situation arises for all Covid drugs approved under the EUA by the Drug Controller general of India, and are being marketed by Indian companies against non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements with the innovators. Thus, an analogous marketing issue exists surrounding all such EUAs, as the company concerned can’t undertake a full brand marketing campaign. This constraint is likely to pose a major marketing challenge for several potential Covid blockbuster drugs in India, at least in 2022, which marketers need to overcome, creatively.

From the above perspective of Covid-19 drugs and vaccines, companies would need to create novel and effective strategic pathways for performance excellence. At least, as long as Covid-19 mutants will continue to emerge, causing operational disruptions in the pharma business.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

What Have And Haven’t Changed In Pharma’s New Normal?

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While navigating through the challenge of disruptive changes, several pharma marketers are now focusing more on creating, connecting, and leveraging all market and customer related data, across the organization. Astute ones are using state-of-the-art tools, platforms, and techniques to gain actionable insights on new demands of pharma markets. I wrote about it in my article - ‘Data: the new ‘Magic Wand’ For Pharma Business Excellence,’ published in this blog on October 01, 2018.

This process is helping them to fathom what areas the pandemic has changed and what it hasn’t. Their aim is to draw cutting-edge strategies accordingly for market effectiveness – outperforming competition. This article will explore that space with contemporary examples. Let me start with a few illustrations of some hits and misses for the treatment of Covid – as the world started learning to live with this menacing virus. This was enviable, as the requisite scientific date wasn’t readily available at that moment of truth. But the time has changed now.

Some hits and misses:

As the pandemic overwhelmed the world, and no well-documented treatment for infection caused by the brand new virus – Covid-19 was available, many drug players were given quick emergency approval by country regulators for some repurposed drugs. But most of those weren’t found effective as fresh clinical data started pouring in. For example, the World Health Organization (WHO), have, reportedly, indicated that remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on 28-day mortality or the in-hospital course of COVID-19 among hospitalized patients.

More recently, Gilead Sciences Veklury – a failed Ebola drug, repurposed for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, suddenly became a blockbuster drug, according to a September 17, 2021 report. However, in less than a year, alongside more research data - a study from Europe, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, showed that Veklury has no real benefit. The report also highlights: ‘Aided by a ringing endorsement from then-president Donald Trump, Veklury rang up sales of $2.8 billion in 2020, including $1.9 billion in the final quarter. But those sales slid this year to $1.5 billion in the first quarter followed by $829 million in the second quarter.’

Similarly, there are several areas that are seemingly getting transformed, triggered by the pandemic and the time for resorting to a hit or miss approach, is now virtually over. From pharma marketers’ point of interest, it will now be at one’s own peril for not challenging the pre-Covid business traditions, rules, and well-tried strategies on customer relationships and brand building models. This brings us to the question on what specifically have changed in the new normal as the pharma industry navigates thorough the Covid pandemic – for close to two years now.  

Pandemic-triggered changes in the pharma marketing area:

Changes are many and are being studied across the world. One such recent analysis, articulating how the pandemic triggered changes have redefined marketing, was published by the Harvard Business Review (HBR), on March 10, 2021. This paper came more than a year after the pandemic overwhelmed the world. This article listed some interesting macro-level changes, including the following:

  • Old normal: You are competing with your competitors.
  • New normal: You are competing with the last best experience your customer had.
  • Old normal: Customers hope you have what they want.
  • New normall: Customers expect you to have exactly what they want.
  • Old normal: Courting customers is just like dating.
  • New normal: Courting customers is just like online dating.
  • Old normal: Customers must sit at the heart of your marketing strategy.
  • New normal: Customers must sit at the heart of your customer journey.
  • Old normal: Agility is a technology process.
  • New normal: Agility is a modern marketing approach.
  • Old normal: Your brand should stand behind great products.
  • New normal: Your brand should stand behind great values.

To illustrate the point, let me now give a few examples of some micro-level changes in the same space.

Some transformation trends:

I am citing a few examples related to pharma’s traditional sales and marketing models. One such area is, quite a few companies are adopting connected data based and analytics-supported Omnichannel approach for customer engagement. The key objective is to deliver coherent and high-quality customer experience.

The need for new commercial models for the changing life sciences market, was also highlighted in an interesting article, published in the Pharmaceutical Executive on September 16, 2021. The authors identified six health care macro trends, demonstrating the value of transforming care delivery and shifting market behavior that prompt to reframe customer value propositions.

Taking a cue from this paper, I am listing below some of the current trends – as I see these and wrote before in this blog. Each one of these calls for well-connected data with analytics support:

  • Fostering a new genre of ‘customer-brand relationship’ to drive more targeted go‑to‑market strategies, enhanced agility/mobility of resources and highly personalized customer interactions.
  • Meeting the growing demand for value‑based care with novel risk‑adjusted and outcome‑based Price-Value-Models, supported by ongoing innovation in this area and sophisticated approach to value, affordability and outcomes.

Interestingly, despite Herculean constraints, many pharma players continued creating and delivering value, as the customers were expecting with changing situations.  

Drug-price sensitivity is increasing:

In the new normal, drug price sensitivity of customers is increasing manifold, for various reasons. A June 18, 2020 study, flags: ‘Nine in 10 Concerned About Rising Drug Costs Due to COVID-19.’ Although, this particular study (Gallup Poll) was conducted in the United States, general public apprehension is no different in other parts of the world, including India.

In my article of September 14, 2020, I also wrote that the concept of ‘fair pricing a drug’ is being deliberated by many experts around the world, since quite some time, till today. But it continues. Most recently, as reported on September 22, 2021, for different reasons related to its new Alzheimer’s drug - Aduhelm, including its hefty price tag of $56,000 annually per patient, ‘Biogen reps banned from D.C.-area neurology clinics.’

Regardless of such customer reactions, the pharma industry, as reported on September 17, 2021, continues to advocate – drug pricing pressure will stifle innovation, blocking patient access to needed medicines and dry up investment in important R&D on new therapies. Curiously, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), is spending more than $1 million on TV ads as part of a massive lobbying and communications campaign emphasizing the potential harm to patients seeking cures for deadly diseases, as the report highlights.

Innovation – remained mostly unhindered from old to new normal:

Customers’ expectations can’t be ignored indefinitely. Interestingly, the world has also witnessed it with Covid drug and vaccine innovation continuing even during the most trying times during the pandemic, even in India. It is, therefore, quite understandable why unfettered access to drug innovation is considered an oxymoron, by many.

The good news is, despite shrill voices over pricing measures, the quest for adding meaningful value to the healthcare space continues unhindered. As reported on September 19, 2021, both Pfizer and Merck are advancing oral antiviral candidates targeting Covid-19 into late-stage testing. Thus, I reckon, regardless of jarring noise from pharma lobbyists, drug innovation, willy-nilly, has to satisfy the diverse demand of health care customers.

Innovation needs to satisfy demands of diverse healthcare customers:

That, increasingly, drug innovations will need to be based on their ability to satisfy the demands of life sciences companies’ diverse customer-perceived value-based, was also echoed by the Pharmaceutical Executive article of September 16, 2021.

While doing so, companies will need to structure innovation in terms of health outcomes, affordability, and personalization, as the paper emphasized. It further added, ‘broader definition of innovation means products are no longer the central driver of value.’ Instead, innovation will be powered by an increasingly diverse stream of data that resides outside the confines of the traditional health ecosystem.

Covid pandemic accelerated the transition of this process of innovation, drawing its new focus on providing a seamless and holistic customer experience in the disease treatment process – supported by advanced analytics and this deeper understanding of customer segments.

Conclusion:

Many pharma marketers have possibly undertaken a sophisticated and credible market scanning exercise in the new normal, to assess by themselves what have or haven’t changed in their customer preferences and market dynamics. If not, I would encourage them to initiate it, at least, now.

Equally noteworthy, as the above HBR article wrote, in the post pandemic period: ‘Beyond geography, marketing messages need to be personally relevant, aligned to an individual’s situation and values, as opposed to demographics, such as age and gender.’

The objective is to create a personal connection between the customer and the brand promotional content, aiming to influence the prescribing and purchasing behavior, based on their psychographic to attitudinal characteristics. This process would require creating and screening lots of customized data, supported by sophisticated analytics.

From the above perspective, I reckon, deep insight on what have or haven’t changed in the healthcare environment alongside its customers, would be of fundamental importance for pharma marketers, in the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

To Allay Customers’ New Apprehensions Pharma Needs A New Conversation

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Since the beginning of 2020, witnessing the rapid spread of Covid pandemic with very high global fatality rate – virtually the entire global populations – directly or indirectly, have been looking up to the health care industry for help. This, of course, includes the drug industry – with high expectations of people on deliverables, blended with palpable apprehensions on what’s happening around.

Amid the wave after wave attack of Covid-19, many have realized that there will neither be any quick-fix or immediate solution to tame the virus. As India goes through the Covid 2.0 catastrophe, while waiting for Covid 3.0, a similar situation prevails in the country – with a sense of lurking fear for future uncertainties, slowly but steadily creeping in.

Thus, an unprecedented public expectation for speedy disentanglement of Covid-19 disruptions, confer a huge responsibility to all health care providers and entities, such as, the drug industry, which will be my key focus in this article. Just as any extraordinary situation calls for extraordinary initiatives, this national tragedy also demands from pharma professionals to start a new and proactive conversation, driven by ‘out of-box’ thinking.

I shall explore in this article, in which areas pharma needs to roll out a new conversation to meet with new expectations of its stakeholders, formed during the Covid Pandemic. This engagement needs to go beyond drugs and vaccines, spanning across key contemporary developments that are bothering pharma customers. The aim should be to help customers visualize a brighter horizon based on scientific reasons, in not-too-distant future, such as:

  • How several pharma companies are taking novel initiatives, as a part of their corporate objectives to save lives and livelihoods, faster.
  • How pharma players are thinking ‘out of the box’ to allay Covid related public apprehensions and neutralizing gross misinformation on Covid cure – based on scientific reasons, often selectively deploying their staff members.

In this regard, let me start with a recent advice of a top pharma veteran of global repute, especially on political and public expectations of ‘the endpoint’ for successful prevention and effective treatment of Covid-19 infections.

When focus is on ‘the end point – the price point’, it needs pharma’s attention:

Former CEO of Novartis Joe Jimenez – Ex-Novartis CEO and CEO & Cofounder of Aditum Bio, advised the same in an interview with Reuters Events, published on April 06, 2021. Although this was against the backdrop of the United States, the same is applicable to India, as well.

There, Jimenez said: “And I think the political focus in the United States is too often on the end point, the price point, which definitely needs attention, but not enough on the whole pipeline. And that absolutely needs attention and can bring down the price point at the end of the day.”

“It’s the pharmaceutical industry’s responsibility to show how their drug can lower total costs through the system, whether it’s reducing hospitalization or whether it is reducing other health care costs and comorbidities that lead to ever increasing budgets. If the industry focuses on that, I think I think that’s going to result in better launch success in the next few years,” he added.

However, there is another endpoint – of equal importance, especially in the Covid-19 prevention and the treatment process.

The other end point is equally important, as there may be an extended need for Covid vaccines: 

Wider access to Covid drugs and vaccines is another political and general public’s ‘end point’ of expectations, besides price. As I wrote in my previous article, on October 02, 2021, India and South Africa had proposed at the WTO about an IP waiver for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines to resolve the issues of access and affordability for these products.

Thereafter, on May 05, 2021, the United States also issued a statement supporting the IP waiver for Covid-19 vaccines at the WTO, in its ‘service of ending this pandemic.’ As reported on May 13, 2021, even China now backs the drugs and vaccine IP waiver at the WTO.

Patent waiver for Covid drugs and vaccines make sense for the coming years, especially, in view of the reports that ‘Pfizer, Regeneron CEOs see extended need for COVID-19 vaccines, treatments as pandemic enters the next phase.’ Adding that the data stressed a “need” for re-vaccinations, the Pfizer CEO said, while protection remains high for those six months, it does “go down by time.” Thus, the need for Covid vaccine may continue to remain as important as of date, to prevent the pandemic over, at least, a couple of years, if not beyond.

That apart, some interesting developments followed soon – coincidentally or otherwise.

Meanwhile, some pharma companies responded with laudable initiatives: 

Presumably, for wider availability and affordability of Covid drugs and vaccines, several pharma players alone or in association with governments, took some laudable initiatives. A few examples are, as follows:

  • On May 10, 2021, BioNTech, which has partnered with Pfizer to produce its COVID-19 vaccine, said it plans to set up a new manufacturing site in Singapore, with a capacity to produce several hundred million doses of mRNA-based vaccine.
  • As reported on the same day, as above, Eli Lilly promised to supply India with thousands of tablets of baricitinib for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. It also pledged to sign a royalty-free, non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements with Cipla, Lupin and Sun Pharma—to expand baricitinib’s availability in the country. Notably, in this month itself, the DCGI has authorized baricitinib plus remdesivir combo for emergency use of ‘hospitalized patients requiring supplemental oxygen, invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).’ Baricitinib has also faced a shortage of during the Covid 2.0 surge.
  • As per reports of May 12, 2021: ‘The US is looking at joint production of Johnson and Johnson’s Covid vaccine in India and ways to help manufacturers like Serum Institute of India (SII) to boost production,’

Pharma’s new role to allay public apprehensions in many Covid related areas:

In this complex scenario, various public apprehensions on Covid vaccines and drugs, need to be explained with scientific evidence – in a common man’s language. These include frequent changes in the dosage interval between two doses of some vaccines, whereas for other vaccines there isn’t any change in this area. Or why in India even within a group of fully vaccinated individuals, wearing masks or maintaining social distancing norms are necessary, when these requirements have been relaxed for fully vaccinated people in the United States. Or, when reports like: ‘Covid Cases Double In World’s Most-Vaccinated Nation, Raising Concerns,’ add fuel to the fire of public apprehensions in this regard.

Drug companies, especially those who are engaged in the global battle against Covid-19 – in their research lab, product development process, including clinical trials, can play an additional stellar role in this area, too. With ‘out of the box ideas’ for Covid related public engagement, they can scientifically respond to all public apprehensions with scientific reasons, in a simple language, on what is happening around most people, nowadays. Selective deployment of their own staff members can also make the initiative more meaningful.

This conversation may also include, science-based response to some bizarre claims of ‘Covid cure’ – from religious leaders having significant followers, and even by Union Ministers, without hurting their feelings or sentiments. These ‘advices’ were widely circulated by the mainstream global and local media, including the Wall Street Journal.

For example, one such report said: The president of a century-old religious organization declared that “consuming cow urine and cow dung will stop the effect of infectious coronavirus.” The swami added that a “person who chants ‘om namah shivay’ and applies cow dung” on his body “will be saved.” However, it was also reported that ‘Indian doctors warn against cow dung as Covid cure.’ Similar advice in different forms, even by elected politicians, keeps misguiding many unsuspected members of the public.

Conclusion:

A series of Covid related contemporary needs and apprehensions, besides the traditional ones are surfacing. These are to be mitigated, on an ongoing basis. Pharma players – individually and collectively, instead of being always reactive, may wish to volunteer to proactively address these issues to help people move in the right direction.

As Covid appears to be a medium to long-haul battle – unlike most other pandemics, pharma companies need to think ‘out of the box’ to create innovative – new – and proactive conversation models in this space. In turn, the initiatives will help them win long-term trust and loyalty of customers – that will always remain as invaluable assets, fueling sustainable growth in business.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

2020: Learnings From A Yearlong Catastrophic Disruption And Crystal-Gazing 2021

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 Wishing All My Readers A Very Happy, Healthy, Peaceful and Prosperous 2021

Just a few days left for the year 2020 to merge with history. It will be remembered by all – as a year of all-round catastrophic global disruption. With unprecedented impact on human lives, livelihoods, economy, and ways of doing things – sparing virtually nothing. The sole cause of which is an unprecedented single event – Covid-19 pandemic. As of December 27, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,118,392 new Coronavirus cases with 147,659 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further infection of Covid-19 infection continues.

In this article, I shall focus on some critical lessons learnt from the 2020 health crisis, while crystal-gazing 2021. I’ll do this purely from the health care perspective, in general, and the pharmaceutical industry, in particular. Keeping this in view, some of the lessons learnt during the pandemic are as follows:

A. Never allow a sense of hubris setting in:

This is easier said than done. Nonetheless, before the Covid pandemic played havocs with all, many top pharma leaders were, apparently, in a hubris. It was often laced with excessive confidence, if not arrogance. The predominant belief was nothing can go so wrong sans unfavorable policy decisions by the governments. This was against a much-known management dictum for all – always anticipate future probabilities that may impact the business and keep prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. On a hindsight, this was, obviously jettisoned – lock, stock and barrel. No one was prepared for any biological threats, such as, Covid pandemic, till the deadly virus caught the humanity off-guard around December 2019, as we see below:

The pandemic was expected, but struck unexpectedly:

A pandemic wasn’t totally unexpected either. Therefore, they question that surfaces - Experts warned of a pandemic decades ago. Why weren’t we ready? Just in 2015, even Bill Gates, during a Ted talk titled, “The next outbreak? We’re not ready,” also predicted - based on available facts that an epidemic would kill millions in the future.

He further added: “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s more likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war – not missiles, but microbes.” Gates further emphasized: “We have invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents, but we’ve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We’re not ready for the next epidemic.”

B. Research on anti-infective drugs shouldn’t be pushed to the back burner: 

These warnings were, apparently, ignored by the pharma industry. For example, as reported in the first quarter of 2020, many research-based pharma companies shifted ‘resources away from emerging infectious diseases into more lucrative areas like cancer treatment. Their business decisions risk leaving gaping holes in the fight against epidemics, such as the one caused by the novel Coronavirus.’

Let’s now take a pause for pharma players to ponder. Are they ready, at least now, with a robust plan – based on almost a year’s experience of an unprecedented agony along with its customers, specifically to counter any future biological threat? Be that as it may, there have also been some good outcomes out of the Covid crisis, both for the pharma industry and also for the health care customers.

C. The pandemic hastened pharma’s digital transformation process:

As is known, compared to many other industries, pharma industry was a late learner in the digitalization process of organizations. The new realities of disruptions caused by the pandemic had significantly expedited this process to keep the business going. There were no other effective options available, either, but to move beyond business stabilization and redefine how they do business. The IQVIA article, ‘Digital transformation in a post-Covid-19 world,’ published in the Pharmaceutical Technology, on August 31, 2020, also reiterated this point.

Elaborating the point further, the article pointed out: ‘As a result, acceleration of three key capabilities is occurring to create sustainable competitive advantage,’ as follows:

  • Digital capabilities with modern technology are enabling companies doing the right things during the pandemic and accelerating the process.
  • Providing access to granular data to support the extraction of precise insights into the needs of patients and physicians.
  • Ensuring capabilities for sustaining relationships. While face-to-face interaction has been dramatically reduced, relationships with HCPs and patients are taking new shapes and are of more importance than ever before.

D. Telemedicine came under mainstream care, supported by Government:

Finding no other viable alternatives during the Covid lockdown period and the need to stringently follow prescribed health measures, many patients were pushed to search for a robust digital solution for health care needs. Just as many of them were already using online platforms to meet other regular needs. In that sense, Covid propelled health care into a virtual world, bringing telehealth or telemedicine toward mainstream care, supported by the Government with a policy, for the first time, ever.

E. Quality of pharma response to pandemic enhanced industry image:

As I had discussed before in this blog, Consumer centric communications, driven by the  ‘hope and confidence as companies rushed to come up with COVID-19 vaccines and treatments’ of all, helped to significantly enhance the industry’s image during the year. In my view, pharma shouldn’t let go this opportunity to reposition itself, to reap a rich harvest in the years ahead.

Crystal-gazing 2021: 

A. A lurking fear will keep haunting:

Moving away from the outgoing year – 2020, if one crystal gazes the incoming – yet another brand-new year – 2021, a lurking fear still haunts most peoples’ minds. Will the all-round disruptions of 2020 be the new normal in 2021 – with no further escalation of the current situation?

B. Vaccine rollout will reduce rapid spread, but not eliminate Covid-19:

Gradual rolling out of vaccines may reduce the rapid spread of pandemic, provided Covid-19 doesn’t throw more surprises, such as, complicated mutation, blunting this initiative. However, currently available evidence indicates, the new variant could be more transmissible, yet vaccines may work very well against it.

 C. Masking, physical distancing, hand washing, etc., will continue:

Besides, many yet unknown side effects, the duration of immunity following coronavirus vaccination is still largely unknown due to the simple lack of time we’ve had to study such immune responses. Moreover, the trials do not tell us if the vaccines can block the transmission of the disease from those who are asymptomatic and have been vaccinated. Thus, masking, physical distancing, hand washing, testing, treating and contact tracing, reportedly, will continue to be important in the global campaign against COVID-19, even after vaccine rollout.

D. NDDS for Covid drugs and vaccines may come: 

New formulations, new Covid drug delivery systems, newer methods to bring Covid vaccines, like nasal sprays, in a powder form for easy transportation and to reach more people around the world, are expected to commence in 2021.

E. Waiting for going back to pre-Covid game plan is a losing strategy:

Vaccines are unlikely to take us back to pre-Covid time, any time soon. Even McKinsey & Companypredicted the same in its article: ‘‘How COVID-19 is redefining the next-normal operating model,’ published on December 10, 2020. It emphasized: “With everything disrupted, going back to the same old thing is a losing strategy. The strongest companies are reinventing themselves by embracing pandemic- driven change.”

Many pharma majors are also echoing the same, even as Covid-19 vaccines have started rolling out for public in different parts of the world. After weighing-in the pros and cons of waiting, many of them have articulated: ‘We will not return to the old ways of working.’ They believe, it’s too early to put a specific timeline on turning that page now. Hence, the year 2021, working of the pharma companies is unlikely to be significantly different from the year 2020.

F. Need to capture and respond fast to changing customer behaviors:

Covid-19 pandemic is fast changing many human attitudes and behaviors, forcing organizations to respond. ‘However, the need to respond won’t end when the virus’s immediate threat eventually recedes,’ reaffirmed the Accenture article ‘COVID-19: 5 new human truths that experiences need to address.’ The massive behavior changes of key pharma stakeholders, at a never before scale and speed, will continue to prompt many leading drug companies to respond to them with well thought through digital tools, to gain competitive advantages.

G. Virtual meetings with reps, doctors and others will continue:

As witnessed in 2020, often for the first time – virtual meeting of sales reps, key opinion leaders and others will continue in 2021, even after ‘live’ ones return, but with more innovative structure and content. Pharma marketing’s long awaited and comprehensive digital foray will continue gaining a strong foothold, entering into new areas, without glancing back over the shoulder, in 2021.

H. More new drug launches will move entirely digital:

It began in 2020. For example, dozens of new drug launches moved entirely to digital, for the first time in 2020. As a pharma leader remarked, with the traditional launch framework gone during the pandemic, “we had to throw out the playbook and really embed into people’s heads that playbook is no longer meaningful. It no longer works, and we have to think outside the box.” She further added: “There’s truly no bigger place for a marketer right now. This is the new world.” None can deny this fact as we enter into the new year.

I. Success requirements of pharma professionals will be different:

With significant transformation of pharma’s operational strategies, success requirements of pharma professionals will also be significantly different in the new normal. Quick capturing and fast adaptation to the changing customer behavior for multi-channel engagement digital platforms, will be fundamentally important – not just for business excellence, but for its long-term sustainability, as well. This is a totally new and highly cerebral strategic ballgame, where obsolescence of cutting-edge technology is much faster than anything in the tradition driven old normal.

J. More pharma companies will explore inorganic growth opportunities:

More pharma companies will look for acquisitions to bridge the strategic gaps, as AstraZeneca did in 2020.

Conclusion:

In 2021, Covid Mayhem may possibly be over with a gradual rollout of vaccines. But, the impact of utter disruptions that the pandemic has caused in multiple areas of businesses in 2020, especially within the pharma industry, would continue, as we step into 2021. As the drug industry overwhelmed by Covid-19, reset themselves with the digital transformation in the new normal -for growth beyond Coronavirus, one may also view this much awaited metamorphosis, as a blessing in disguise, as it were.

Overall, as the W.H.O observed very rightly on December 27, 2020: “We throw money at an outbreak, and when it’s over, we forget about it and do nothing to prevent the next one. This is dangerously short-sighted, and frankly difficult to understand.” He further added: “History tells us that this will not be the last pandemic, and epidemics are a fact of life.” I hope, all concerned will realize this point in 2021. Alternatively, we may need to keep ourselves prepared to move, in a similar way, from the current new normal to yet unknown next normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 


Combating Covid Pandemic: When ‘Something Is Better Than Nothing’

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As the new Coronavirus overwhelms the world, since its global outbreak, up until November 29, 2020, over 1,458,305 people have died from this pandemic. Understandably, the Governments in all countries are frantically searching for some robust remedial measures to prevent these unfortunate deaths, besides protecting livelihoods of a vast majority of people.

For this purpose, experts considered effective preventive measures, such as vaccines could help taming this menace, alongside existing personal prevention measures. Accordingly, scientists around the world, have are hard to accelerate development and manufacturing of safe and effective Covod-19 vaccines, within the prescribed guidelines. Equally important is the fact these vaccines must be safe with predictable effectiveness- for all age groups.

The good news is, vaccines are now a distinct possibility in the near future, with the positive interim Phase III clinical trial reports pouring in. It gets reflected in the remark of the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), on November 23, 2020, at the media briefing on Covid-19. He said: There is now real hope that vaccines – in combination with other tried and tested public health measures – will help to end the pandemic.

Interestingly, amid these reports, a lurking fear of many experts also surfaces – on the impact of possible side effects, that Covid vaccine may cause, besides their medium to long term efficacy in human subjects. But, with the mounting number of deaths, near collapse of the global economy, including India, there isn’t any more time to watch and wait.

Apparently, all governments now want some scientifically relevant vaccines, instead of nothing. This article will deliberate on the one hand – an unprecedented achievement, alongside some critical concerns – voiced even by the Indian Prime Minister. Let me begin with the apprehensions, as expressed by some domain experts on some rough edges, as it were, in the process of its development.

Queries on vaccine dosing, efficacy, safety and testing:

On November 23, 2020, AstraZeneca and Oxford reported interim results of their vaccine with the average efficacy of 70% prevention. This sounded good to many, as it falls within the expectations of above a 50% standard that the FDA had set for Covid vaccines. However, the puzzling part in this result was – bigger (standard) doses of the vaccines were less efficacious. The vaccine was only 62% effective in a group that got two full doses spaced about a month apart. But among about 2,700 people who got a half-dose followed by a full, the number rose to 90%, the report highlighted. This incident prompted several questions about the most effective dose of AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine, including its safety record and the approach to testing. Consequently, apprehensions surfaced whether the Drug regulators will clear it, based on the currently available data.

It now appears, AstraZeneca ‘s Covid-19 vaccine is ‘headed for an additional global trial as the drug maker tries to clear up the uncertainty and confusion surrounding favorable results in its current study.’ Incidentally, in India - AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine will be manufactured by Pune-based Serum Institute of India (SII) under a collaborative arrangement. Let me now dwell on a broader as aspect in this space.

Could current Covid vaccines become useless in the future?

There isn’t an iota of doubt that developing Covid vaccine in ten months, which otherwise takes around ten years – is an unprecedented achievement. However, there are several other important areas in this space, where pundits have expressed uneasiness through various articles.

One such paper is titled, ‘Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees,’ published in the Nature on March 16, 2020. According to the author, a critical point in this regard is to consider ‘the potential for emerging and re-emerging Coronaviruses to cause future outbreaks.’

This is because, ‘the virus behind COVID-19 might mutate in ways that would make previously effective vaccines and antivirals useless.’ Testing vaccines and medicines without taking the time to fully understand safety risks, could bring unwarranted setbacks during the current pandemic, and into the future. ‘Despite the genuine need for urgency, the old saying holds – ‘measure twice, cut once’, the author commented.

The article concluded by suggesting, ‘any regulatory agency considering ways to accelerate treatments into testing should also weigh up how likely these drugs are to work beyond this particular Coronavirus.’ Moreover, according to the WHO, it’s too early to know if COVID-19 vaccines will provide long-term protection.

Possible side-effects of COVID-19 vaccines:

As people’s hopes swell, expecting Covid vaccines to ultimately end the deadly global pandemic, experts caution about their reported – annoying and unpleasant side effects. The November 12, 2020 paper – ‘Time to Discuss Potentially Unpleasant Side Effects of COVID Shots? Scientists Say Yes,’ published by the Kaiser Health News (KHN), also articulated similar apprehension.

It said, most Covid vaccines, including much publicized ones from Pfizer and Moderna, will require two doses to work, injections that must be given weeks apart, as company protocols show. Scientists anticipate the shots will cause enervating flu-like side effects — including sore arms, muscle aches and fever — that could last days and temporarily sideline some people from work or school.

Even with the Pfizer vaccine, which is touted to be over 90% effective, 1 in 10 recipients would still be vulnerable. There could also be a possibility that a vaccine may not suit everyone due to side-effects, especially the most vulnerable elderly population. That means, at least in the short term, as population-level immunity grows, people can’t stop social distancing and throw away their masks, the report emphasized. Even Prime Minister Modi has informed the nation about possible side effects of Covid vaccines.

PM Modi also warns of possible vaccine side-effects:

Being adequately briefed on the above perspectives related to Covid vaccines, the PM has also warned the nation about the possible side-effects. This is probably to ensure that the unpleasant experience of side-effects, after being administered the first dose, do not catch the population off-guard. Mostly because, no one should miss the second dose of vaccine for the same.

He said, during a recent video conference with the state chief ministers, ‘like many other popular medicines, any COVID-19 vaccine could lead to side-effects in some people.’ Emphasizing that both speed and safety are equally important in launching a vaccine, he assured that ‘the government would only go by science in finalizing a vaccine for the country.’

Is something better than nothing?

In the current situation, it appears so, as there is no other alternatives, except maintenance of social distancing, frequent hand sanitizing and wearing masks while outdoors. The Prime Minister also articulated sans any ambiguity: ‘Whatever vaccine makes it through the world’s certified processes, we will have to accept them and move ahead.’

In the meantime, he urged the states to keep distribution infrastructure, such as cold storages ready, the report said. Interestingly, according to Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawalla, India could approve the emergency use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine by December 2020.

That said, for mass vaccination of the population across India, another factor that is extremely important to decide which vaccine to go for – is the required storage temperature of various Covid Vaccines under development.

Required cold chain storage temperature of various Covid vaccines:

Required cold chain storage temperatures of various Covid vaccines are as follows:

Company

Type

Doses

Effectiveness*

Storage
Oxford-AstraZeneca Viral Vector (genetically modified virus) Two 62-90%** Regular fridge temp.
Moderna RNA (part of virus genetic code) Two 95% -20C up to six months
Pfizer-BioNTech RNA Two 95% -70C
Gamaleya (Sputnik V) Viral Vector Two 92% Regular fridge temp.

Source: Respective Companies, WHO – BBC News. *Preliminary Phase III results. **Two full doses: 62%, A half dose followed by a full dose: 90%, Average: 70%

From the above table, it appears, from the perspective of continuous cold chain storage facility of vaccines – till these are administered to each person, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Russian Sputnik vaccines will be more practical, despite issues with them. Viewing from this perspective, as well, it appears ‘something is better than nothing’ term can be applied in this area, as well.

Conclusion:

The Covid pandemic continues to worry India, immensely. As on November 29, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,393,039 of Coronavirus cases with 136,733 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large in many states.

Unprecedented speed in developing vaccines to effectively combat Covid Pandemic has created some initial issues. Some of these Covid vaccine challenges include, vaccine side effects, its future usefulness, or challenges towards maintaining required stringent cold chain storage requirements, especially in a country like India. Powder version of Covid vaccines, in the future, would possibly resolve this issue for all countries, across the world.

Currently, in tandem with keeping the cold-chain distribution infrastructure ready, at least, for vaccines that require regular fridge temperature, there is a need to make people aware of Covid vaccine side-effects. Otherwise, after getting first shot of a Coronavirus vaccine, many people may get so scared of its side effects that they may not come back for the second dose. If this happens, the very purpose of mass vaccination will get defeated.

However, from the Indian perspective, Covid vaccines that the country, hopefully, will shortly get, may not be the best, out of the available ones, in terms of safety and efficacy. But, for combating Covid Pandemic across India at this juncture, I reckon, the good old dictum still holds good – ‘something is better than nothing.’

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Taming Two Critical Covid Uncertainties For Pharma’s Sustainable Growth

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The reasons behind a great urgency of the Governments, besides high expectations of the general public, to have the ‘ultimate solution’ very soon, against the ongoing pandemic, are understandable. However, various media-hyped narratives on their clinical trials, and timeframe for expected launch – ranging from November this year to anytime in 2021, are making many experts to raise eyebrows on the scientific processes followed for Covid vaccine development.

Exact answers to the ultimate efficacy standard, safety profile and dates of their availability to the entire population, are still not clear – not even to many domain experts. Besides, two other critical and fundamental questions in India, are related to huge financial resources and other wherewithal, such as, countrywide stringent cold-chain logistics network, required to achieve this goal.

While effective, safe and high-quality vaccines, as and when these will come, will be pivotal to contain the alarming spread of Covid-19 – and that too in a wave after wave manner. Alongside, the intense search for effective anti-Covid medicines are also expected to come to fruition. Doctors will then have in their arsenals a number of highly effective alternatives, that can predictably cure individuals, when infected by this lethal virus.

It causes a great concern when someone asks, when will those days of great relief to all come? For, those days may or may not be very soon – could well be for an indefinite period. No one seems to know the answer, yet.

Until then, pharma companies can’t afford to remain in a ‘quick-fix mode’ to address the problems related to Covid related market and consumer mindset changes. Choosing this path could eventually prove to be very costly, especially for the lost time in leveraging some key opportunities. Moving in that direction, would entail rebuilding the organization by creating a new work-culture – a mindset to be all-time ready for any disruptive changes in business. Most importantly, if or as and when it comes, the organization should not get as overwhelmed, as is happening during the current global pandemic.

In this article, I shall deliberate the following two critical and interrelated Covid-19 issues:

  • The uncertainty in achieving what everybody is expecting to get right away – getting a preventive vaccine or a cure for the infected patients.
  • Inordinate delay in getting prompt medical care by many patients for non-Covid related serious ailments, leading to complexity of the disease. How long this situation will continue still remains uncertain.

As things stand today, these uncertainties could continue for an indefinite period, making some of the Covid related changes irreversible. Thus, my aim will be, first to recap where we are today with these niggles. And then, focusing on the crucial need to pave a balanced pathway – uncharted by anyone, for destination success – in the new world order. Let me begin with the first issue first.

The uncertainty in achieving what everybody is expecting:

Although, some Covid vaccines, reportedly, will be ready by early 2021, uncertainties and delays are still anticipated on the way. Some the reasons may include the following:

  • A critical challenge: About 5.6 billion people worldwide would need to be immune in order to end the pandemic (NEJM). Thus, vaccination process may take years to achieve the coverage necessary for everyone to be protected.
  • Huge investment required: India would need to invest between Rs 3,000 -5,000 crore to create additional facilities for making a huge number of vaccines, required for the Indian population. Currently no one has the capacity to manufacture it for 1.3 billion Indian populations. Moreover, vaccine alone is not the solution to the COVID-19 problem, according to experts.
  • High vaccine cost in India: As these vaccines come from a very difficult platform its cost is going to be significantly higher than many other vaccines, so there is going to be a requirement to think about how we are going to fund this.
  • Coronavirus mutating, potentially evolving: As reported on September 24, 2020, Covid’s continual mutation may make it increasingly contagious. The study says, it’s possible that when our population-level immunity gets high, this Coronavirus will find ways to get around our immunity.
  • The logistical challenge of a lifetime: Getting billions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines around the world quickly, would require 15,000 flights and 15 million cooling boxes. Stringent temperature control requirements for the vaccine supply chain must not be compromised at any point, not even in rural India. It’s worth noting, some of these vaccines may need to be kept at temperatures as low as -80 degrees Celsius. Currently, even in the developed world, the most efficient medical supply chain conventionally distributes vaccines at +2–8°C.
  • Vaccines may not provide complete protection: If COVID-19 re-infections are common, “vaccines might not completely protect against the virus” and would instead require a design similar to seasonal flu shots to protect from new variants. Interestingly. India may, reportedly, approve covid-19 vaccines that show 50 percent efficacy in clinical trials.

Converting problems into opportunities:

Such uncertainties may not only aggravate people’s overall health risks, but also their exposure to Covid infection. Drug companies, drug authorities and various Governments have been working hard on these issues. However, as flagged earlier, amid this health crisis, there is also another growing concern of a very serious nature. It pertains to many people delaying their non-Covid related medical care and medical interventions, for various reasons.

Pharmaceutical companies can convert this problem into a golden business opportunity with ‘patient-centric’ innovative strategies having a cutting-edge, and from a number of platforms. Let me illustrate this point with an interesting example of an initiative taken by a global pharma major, in this area.

A pace setting initiative:

On September 22, 2020, Fierce Pharma reported, ‘J&J wants everyone to know that taking care of their health can’t wait—even during a pandemic.’ This effort is based on the findings of a recent Harris Poll commissioned by them. This study revealed, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many Americans (68 percent) to delay healthcare treatment. It ranges from standard routine exams to important elective surgeries to ER visits – with physicians sharing concerns about the long-term impact of patients delaying care. The situation is expected to be no different in other countries of the world, including India.

Based on this finding Johnson & Johnson (J&J) have recently launched a US-based online initiative, aimed at giving both patients and physicians information and resources about health care options. This unique campaign has been named – “My Health Can’t Wait”.

By a statement J&J announced: “As the largest healthcare company in the world, we are committed to helping people live their healthiest lives, which means getting the care they need, when they need it.” It added: “Through My Health Can’t Wait, we hope to provide patients and healthcare providers with resources to help stay connected and prioritize their health care, both during this pandemic and in the future.” The point, especially take note of is, ‘both during this pandemic and in the future.’ This part of the above sentence of J&J, echoes the well-known management dictum – converting problem into opportunities, I add, even during the Covid pandemic.

I hope, many pharma players may also wish to pursue similar direction, responding to their own specific needs. But, not just to keep the head above water, in combating this unprecedented health crisis, but with a long-term strategic perspective – to rebuild the organization – for business excellence the new normal.

The concept reverberates:

I find the concept of ‘rebuilding the organization now, for business excellence the new normal’, reverberating in several expert voices. For example, The McKinsey ‘Briefing Note’ of September 16, 2020 – ‘COVID-19 and the great reset.’ It said: ‘The world anxiously awaits an effective COVID-19 vaccine that can be readily distributed. Until then, the priority is to re-energize organizations—to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term.’

The authors emphasized, ‘a crisis has a way of bringing things to a head.’ Many believe, the coming months might be the best opportunity in memory for healthcare companies to pursue exponential innovation. This, according to McKinsey, ‘could create an additional $400 billion in value by 2025. And now is the time to claim the hundreds of billions of dollars that could be saved through productivity gains.’

Thus, I reckon, apart from creating a great business compulsion of working harder to neutralize the short-term operational constraints, Covid pandemic also provides a unique opportunity to pharma leadership. It gives a space for them for thinking long-term, and from a strategic perspective. The aim is to rebuild the organization, placing it at a higher trajectory for success, in an uncharted frontier, thus far.

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, as on September 27, 2020 morning, India had recorded a staggering figure of 5,992,532 of Coronavirus cases with 94,534 deaths. The virus’s unprecedented onslaught on the country still continues, unabated. Be that as it may, coming back to where I started from, I reckon, pharma companies, in general, could play a stellar role in converting the dual problems of uncertainties into a number of opportunities. In that process, they can create a win-win situation for all, in the health care space.

The uncertainties related to scientifically proven, safe and effective Covid drugs and vaccines will, hopefully, be addressed – sometime, by the scientists and medical researchers. However, as the above McKinsey paper wrote: ‘Until then, the priority is to re-energize organizations – to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term.’ Thus, the second issue, needs to be creatively leveraged mostly by individual drug players, starting from now.

From this perspective, pharma leadership, will need to commit quality time of thinking people, supported by adequate resources, for conceiving and effectively implementing a ‘patient-centric’ strategy, that patients will fall for in the new normal. That being done, the top honchos, will require to roll up their sleeves to prioritize primary, secondary and tertiary action areas.

Instead of trying to do a little bit of everything, in all possible areas of Covid related changes in the market dynamics, ‘primary action areas’ ought to be the starting point, deploying all resources. And then, expand to the ‘secondary’ and ‘tertiary’ ones, in a well-calibrated manner. Evaluation of results and tightening the strategic loose knots, if any, should be an ongoing process. If implementation of the process requires handholding, so be it. Because, taming these two critical Covid related uncertainties, is intimately related to a sustainable growth for the pharma companies.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Covid-19: A Paradox: Impact On Demographic Dividend: Vaccine Rush

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Not so long ago, on September 25, 2019, while delivering the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum in New York, Prime Minister Modi talked about the future direction of India’s growth story. He emphasized, this story was built on four pillars, namely Democracy, Demography, Demand and Decisiveness. Today, except perhaps the first pillar – Democracy, all three other pillars have been greatly impacted, especially by Covid-19 pandemic, just round a year’s time. Interestingly, while delivering the 74th Independence Day speech on August 15, 2020, the Prime Minister indicated: ‘Covid-19 is not an obstacle big enough to hamper self-reliant India’s growth’

That said, out of those 3 pillars, ‘demography’ of the country, I reckon, offers a key differential economic advantage to the nation. According to the Prime Minister’s own words: “This growth is facilitated by India’s demographic dividend and young and talented people.” Alarmingly, the collateral damage of the new Coronavirus pandemic has significantly affected this critical growth pillar, as well. Thus, I would cite this ‘pillar’ as an example, to drive home the point – how Covid-19 is impacting the demographic dividend, impeding the economic growth of a country, like India.

At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear today, the new Coronavirus ‘maze’ is refusing to signal any clear pathway to get back to the ‘old normal,’ while the ‘new normal’ is yet to crystallize.From this perspective, let me deliberate in this article, with examples from the following two important areas:

  • A paradox that is directly related to Covid-19 transmission in various countries.
  • The collateral damage on ‘demographic dividend’.

These illustrations will vindicate that there isn’t any other meaningful option – for an indefinite period, but to wait (or rush) for vaccines, in the prevailing quandary.

The paradox: 

As the world awaits scientifically proven, safe and effective vaccines, duly approved by the drug regulators, to come out of Covid-19’s lethal shackles, several paradoxes further add to the complexity of the problem. Many of these seem to be quite difficult to untangle. One such paradox, for example, the observed case-fatality ratio (CFR). It indicates, the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed Covid-19 cases or per 100,000 population. The latter represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people.

As analyzed by the Johns Hopkins University - among the twenty countries most affected by COVID-19 worldwide as of August 09, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) had over 300,000 confirmed cases along with 70.16 deaths per 100,000 of its inhabitants. Peru and Chile had the second and third highest total per 100,000 of the population with 64.55 and 53.45 respectively, while the U.S. followed – with 49.65.

Similarly, while India shows a CFR of 2.0, other countries – quite different, particularly in economic and demographic parameters, are also not doing too badly, some are doing even, better as far as the CFR is concerned. These nations include, Pakistan 2.1, Vietnam 1.8, Thailand 1.7, Myanmar 1.7, Philippines 1.7, Australia 1.6, Malaysia 1.4, Bangladesh 1.3, Sri Lanka 0.4, Maldives 0.4 and Nepal, to name a few.

From these numbers, it appears, the CFR has neither any bearing on the degree of overall economic development of a country, nor how robust is the nation’s health care infrastructure, beside others. In that case, in which areas a country should focus to keep Convid-19 death rate low? A specific answer to this question is awaited. Till then does it not remain a paradox?

Impact on demographic dividend:

Besides the direct impact of rapid transmission of the Coronavirus infection and its associated fall outs, the livelihoods of many and crippling blows on the national economy, Covid-19 pandemic is silently making serious collateral damages. One of these is a significant impact on the demographic dividend, especially for a country like India. As many would know, ‘demographic dividend’ broadly refers to the growth in an economy that is the result of a change in the age structure of a country’s population, where the proportion of the working population out of the total population is high.

This issue has been well-captured in the August 11, 2020 report – ‘Youth & COVID-19: Impacts on jobs, education, rights and mental well-being,’ of the International Labor Organization (ILO). The report captures the immediate effects of the pandemic on the lives of young people (aged 18–29) with regards to employment, education, mental well-being, rights and social activism. Over 12,000 responses were received from young people in 112 countries. A large proportion of these came from educated youths with access to the Internet. Some of the key findings of this survey may indeed be a cause of worry for many, such as:

  • The pandemic is inflicting a heavy toll on young workers, destroying their employment and undermining their career prospects.
  • 38 per cent of young population is uncertain of their future career prospects due to the pandemic. They expect COVID-19 crisis to create more obstacles for them, besides lengthening the transition from school to work.
  • Mental well-being is lowest for young women and younger youths between the ages of 18 and 24 years.
  • One in six young people (17 per cent) – employed before the outbreak, stopped working altogether, most notably they are younger workers – aged 18 to 24 years.
  • Among those who thought that their education would be delayed or might fail, 22 percent were likely to be affected by anxiety or depression, compared to 12 percent of students whose education remained on track.
  • Young people whose education or work was either disrupted or had stopped completely being most twice as likely to be affected by anxiety or depression as compared to those who continued to be employed or whose education was not affected.
  • The new Coronavirus has left one in eight young people (13 per cent) without any access to courses, teaching or training — a situation, particularly acute among the youth in low-income countries and one that serves to underline the sharp digital divide that exists between regions.

The paper acknowledged that even before the onset of this crisis, the social and economic integration of young people was an ongoing challenge. Nevertheless, COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted every aspect of peoples’ lives, adversely impacting the demographic dividend. The paper cautioned, unless urgent action is taken right now, young people are likely to suffer severe and long-lasting impacts from the pandemic. Intriguingly, not many remedial measures in this space are visible just yet, not even in India.

A global rush to cling on to vaccines as a ‘safety belt’:

Amid such grim scenario, there exists an understandable global rush to cling on to get Covid-19 vaccines at an unprecedented record time, despite huge safety concerns of their users, if the development process is rushed through. The reason being, any previous vaccine development process has typically taken a decade or longer. Just to give a feel of it, according to reports:

Name of Vaccine

Number of years to develop

Varicella

28

FluMist

28

Human papillomavirus

15

Rotavirus

15

Pediatric combination

11

Covid-19 goal

18 months

Some countries promised even sooner:

Let me give two recent examples – one from India and the other from Russia.

According to the media news, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) was planning to launch the Covid-19 vaccine by August 15 this year. Another report also indicated that on July 2, ICMR wrote to all 12 trial sites for the Covid-19 vaccine candidate - Covaxin, that all clinical trials had to be completed by August 15, in time for a public launch.

However, bioethics experts have questioned how all three phases of testing for a vaccine candidate, yet to even begin human trials, can be crunched into a timeframe of a month. Be that as it may, The Ministry of Science and Technology has since clarified that none of the Coronavirus vaccine candidates, including India’s Covaxin and ZyCov-D, are likely to be ready for public use before 2021.

Meanwhile, on August 12, 2020, Russia launched the world’s first registered COVID-19 vaccine ‘Sputnik V’ – again amid huge safety concern, as all three phases of clinical trials are yet to be over. This vaccine, apparently, will be first given to doctors and teachers after which there will be a mass vaccination campaign in October 2020. However, according to the Russian Health Minister, “Clinical trials of a Coronavirus vaccine developed by the Gamaleya Centre are over, paperwork is underway for the vaccine’s registration.”

Amid this rush, there comes good news. On August 10, 2020, the USFDA Commissioner assuredphysicians and other healthcare providers that vaccine and therapeutics approvals for the COVID-19 pandemic will be “based on good science and sound data.” And: “Nothing else will be used to guide our decisions,” he reiterated. By the way, six Covid-19 vaccine candidates from around the world are now in phase three of human trials.

Conclusion:

Currently, India is recording the highest count of fresh Covid-19 cases in the world while also reporting the most daily deaths from the virus. As on August 16, 2020 morning, the recorded Coronavirus cases in the country reached 2,590,501 with 50,099 deaths, despite all measures that the country is taking. The steep ascending trend continues, unabated. As I wrote on July 13, 2020 in this blog – what will be the ultimate fallout of this global health crisis, it will ultimately assume what form, when and how long? Similarly, clear reasons are not still available as to why many Covid-19 related catastrophic impacts in different nations, neither have any bearing on the degree of overall economic development of a country, nor how robust is the nation’s health care infrastructure, and the likes.

The answer to the question – Why many Covid-19 related things are happening, the way these are happening, even in India, continues to remain a paradox. Some experts are trying to attribute reasons to these, though, almost on a daily basis, which are also subsequently changing, as days pass by. In tandem, many significant collateral damages caused by the pandemic, are also surfacing, such as, weakening of an important growth pillar – demographic dividend, of a large country like India.

In the midst of all, the rush for a new Covid-19 vaccine development in a near impossible timeframe of around a year is gaining momentum. However, as the reports indicate, ‘despite the unprecedented push for a vaccine, researchers caution that less than 10 percent of drugs that enter clinical trials are ever approved by the Food and Drug Administration. The rest fail in one way or another: They are not effective, don’t perform better than existing drugs or have too many side effects,’ the report emphasized.

Incidentally, there doesn’t seem to be any other robust solution, either. On August 15, 2020, while addressing the nation on its 74th Independence Day, Prime Minister Modi said, ‘three Coronavirus vaccines are at different stages of testing in India and the government has a plan to ensure that a vaccine, when approved, reaches every Indian.’ The takeaway message from various developments on the global fight against the new lethal Coronavirus remains somewhat paradoxical. With the efforts to save lives and the livelihoods becoming more and more challenging, and the economic growth retarding faster every day, as it were. Thus, vaccines have to come sooner – but, no matter what?

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.